E LETTER FROM THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR COFFEE MARKET REPORT August 2010 During August the upward trend of Arabica prices was accentuated. The differentials between Arabica and Robusta prices widened further. The firmness of Arabica prices is confirmed by the behaviour of the futures markets, particularly in the case of the monthly average of the 2nd and 3rd positions in the New York futures market (ICE), which rose from 165.23 US cents per lb in July to 175.10 US cents per lb in August, an increase of 6%. Price volatility for all four groups of coffee increased in August compared to July, indicating limited availability and considerable speculative activity by investment funds during this period. The current behaviour of prices reflects uncertainties concerning short-term coffee supplies despite the large crop anticipated in Brazil and, to a lesser extent, the return to normal production levels in a number of countries that, in recent years, have recorded significant reductions in their production. More specifically, adverse weather conditions could affect production prospects in Vietnam and in some Central American countries in crop year 2010/11. My estimate of total production for crop year 2010/11 remains unchanged at between 133 and 135 million bags. Production in crop year 2009/10 totalled around 120 million bags. Exports by all exporting countries during July totalled 8.3 million bags, bringing the cumulative total for the first ten months of coffee year 2009/10 (October 2009 – July 2010) to 78.5 million bags as against 82.7 million bags for the same period in coffee year 2008/09, a fall of 5.2%. Total exports for the first seven months of calendar year 2010 were 56.1 million bags as against 59.2 million bags for the same period in 2009. 2 Letter from the Executive Director – August 2010 Graph 1: Daily composite indicator prices 3 August 2009 – 7 September 2010 170 165 160 155 US cents/lb 150 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 Price movements The monthly average of the ICO composite indicator price rose by 2.6% from 153.41 US cents per lb in July to 157.46 US cents per lb in August (Table 1) despite the fall in Robusta prices. The increase in the ICO composite indicator price was strongly influenced by the upward trend in Arabica prices. Prices of Colombian Milds, Other Milds and Brazilian Naturals increased by 3.6%, 4.1% and 4% respectively in relation to their prices in July. Graphs 1 and 2 show changes in the ICO daily composite indicator price and indicator prices for the four groups of coffee since 3 August 2009. The price differential between Arabicas and Robustas widened further. The differential between Colombian Milds and the other Arabica groups also widened, as did the differential between Other Milds and Brazilian Naturals (Table 2). Graph 3 shows changes in the price differential between Colombian Milds and the other three coffee groups since January 2009. Graph 2: Group indicator prices 3 August 2009 – 7 September 2010 270 250 230 210 US cents per lb 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 50 Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilian Naturals Robustas 3 Letter from the Executive Director – August 2010 Table 1: ICO daily indicator prices and futures prices (US cents per lb) – August 2010 ICO composite Aug-10 02-Aug 159.20 03-Aug 155.24 04-Aug 155.98 05-Aug 156.19 06-Aug 154.86 09-Aug 155.20 10-Aug 155.98 11-Aug 156.15 12-Aug 159.02 13-Aug 159.74 16-Aug 160.36 17-Aug 160.52 18-Aug 159.20 19-Aug 160.13 20-Aug 163.19 23-Aug 162.87 24-Aug 152.51 25-Aug 149.55 26-Aug 153.18 27-Aug 157.50 30-Aug 159.47 31-Aug 158.02 Aug-10 157.46 2010 January 126.85 February 123.37 March 125.30 April 126.89 May 128.10 June 142.20 July 153.41 August 157.46 annual averages 2004 62.15 2005 89.36 2006 95.75 2007 107.68 2008 124.25 2009 115.67 % change between Aug-10 and Jul-10 2.6 % change between Aug-10 and Aug-09 34.1 % change between Aug-10 and 2009 averages 36.1 volatility (%) Aug-09 4.6 Sep-09 6.2 Oct-09 6.4 Nov-09 6.8 Dec-09 4.9 Jan-10 3.9 Feb-10 4.1 Mar-10 3.4 Apr-10 3.8 May-10 3.6 Jun-10 7.6 Jul-10 6.3 Aug-10 9.2 Change between 45.8 Aug-10 and Jul-10 *Average of the 2nd and 3rd positions Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilian Naturals Robustas New York* London* 245.90 240.41 241.44 241.63 240.12 240.50 241.45 242.17 245.80 246.35 248.57 247.55 246.93 248.11 250.70 250.12 237.18 234.01 240.31 246.31 247.13 244.92 243.98 212.36 207.23 208.23 208.62 206.98 207.56 209.14 209.56 213.51 214.36 215.21 215.12 214.16 215.82 219.71 218.64 205.37 202.24 207.50 213.17 216.27 214.12 211.59 164.32 159.17 159.80 160.15 158.57 159.06 160.86 160.97 164.55 166.19 167.03 166.58 165.28 166.43 170.70 169.95 157.89 154.25 159.30 164.73 168.41 166.39 163.21 85.55 84.05 84.60 84.56 83.74 83.76 83.02 82.88 84.10 83.98 83.66 84.95 83.13 83.25 84.86 85.53 79.62 77.48 77.71 79.49 79.63 79.45 82.68 173.13 167.47 170.73 170.95 168.57 171.00 171.25 172.25 177.13 177.35 181.08 178.53 178.03 179.88 185.03 183.22 168.65 166.78 172.52 178.88 181.40 178.47 175.10 81.10 78.49 79.51 79.49 78.74 79.17 78.27 78.47 80.08 80.35 80.51 81.31 79.81 79.72 81.53 80.83 74.64 72.53 72.80 74.62 Holiday 74.80 78.42 207.51 204.71 205.71 199.50 200.33 224.49 235.52 243.98 158.90 157.86 164.50 169.24 173.28 190.90 203.21 211.59 131.67 124.57 126.21 125.71 127.32 143.20 156.87 163.21 70.08 67.88 67.25 71.52 70.61 76.92 85.27 82.68 142.76 134.35 134.97 135.12 135.81 152.36 165.23 175.10 62.66 60.37 58.64 62.21 62.46 69.72 78.17 78.42 81.44 115.73 116.80 125.57 144.32 177.43 80.47 114.86 114.40 123.55 139.78 143.84 68.97 102.29 103.92 111.79 126.59 115.33 35.99 50.55 67.55 86.60 105.28 74.58 79.53 111.38 112.30 121.83 136.46 128.40 32.85 46.80 59.77 78.56 97.18 67.69 3.6 4.1 4.0 -3.0 6.0 0.3 31.6 41.3 39.7 14.3 32.6 19.8 37.5 47.1 41.5 10.9 36.4 15.9 4.8 6.6 5.3 5.9 5.7 4.8 3.8 2.6 3.6 3.4 6.0 5.2 7.7 4.8 6.1 6.5 7.0 5.1 4.1 4.4 3.2 3.8 3.5 7.8 6.2 8.9 5.5 7.3 7.5 8.2 6.0 4.8 5.8 4.7 5.0 4.4 10.2 7.7 11.0 5.9 6.8 7.7 7.0 5.5 7.8 4.6 6.0 5.0 5.3 9.4 7.4 9.2 7.5 9.0 8.6 8.5 7.0 5.5 6.4 5.7 5.0 4.9 10.7 9.6 12.3 6.9 7.6 8.2 8.9 6.4 4.9 4.6 7.2 5.2 4.7 7.6 8.2 10.5 47.5 42.5 42.8 25.1 28.7 28.1 4 Letter from the Executive Director – August 2010 Table 2: Price differentials Colombian Colombian Colombian Colombian Milds Milds Milds Milds O the r Braz ilian Milds Naturals Robustas Ne w York* Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 M ar-10 Apr-10 M ay-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 % change be twe e n Aug-10 and Jul-10 O the r Milds Braz ilian Naturals O the r Milds Braz ilian Naturals Ne w York* Robustas Robustas London* 46.39 35.63 28.92 23.56 26.12 33.95 48.61 46.85 41.21 30.26 27.05 33.59 32.31 32.39 79.49 68.53 61.29 53.51 52.16 59.27 75.84 80.14 79.50 73.79 73.01 81.29 78.65 80.77 115.61 113.04 103.63 104.62 108.85 122.22 137.43 136.83 138.46 127.98 129.72 147.57 150.25 161.30 64.87 53.34 46.12 37.36 38.00 48.03 64.75 70.36 70.74 64.38 64.52 72.13 70.29 68.88 33.10 32.90 32.37 29.95 26.04 25.32 27.23 33.29 38.29 43.53 45.96 47.70 46.34 48.38 69.22 77.41 74.71 81.06 82.73 88.27 88.82 89.98 97.25 97.72 102.67 113.98 117.94 128.91 36.12 44.51 42.34 51.11 56.69 62.95 61.59 56.69 58.96 54.19 56.71 66.28 71.60 80.53 57.44 66.58 64.56 74.03 77.49 81.28 80.10 73.98 76.33 72.91 73.35 82.64 87.06 96.68 0.2% 2.7% 7.4% -2.0% 4.4% 9.3% 12.5% 11.0% *Average of the 2nd and 3rd positions Graph 3: Differential between prices of Colombian Milds and the other three coffee groups January 2009 – August 2010 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 US cents/lb 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Colombian Milds - Robustas Colombian Milds - Brazilian Naturals Colombian Milds - Other Milds 5 Letter from the Executive Director – August 2010 Table 3: Production in selected exporting countries Crop year commencing Market fundamentals 2006 2007 2008 2009 % change 2009-2008 129 250 119 320 128 434 119 903 -6.6 Africa Cameroon Cô te d'Ivoire Ethiopia Kenya Tanzania Uganda Others Arabicas Robustas 15 497 836 2 847 4 636 826 822 2 700 2 829 7 667 7 830 15 181 795 2 598 4 906 652 810 3 250 2 171 7 343 7 838 15 289 750 2 316 4 350 572 1 186 3 200 2 915 7 320 7 970 13 445 690 1 850 4 500 667 709 3 000 2 029 6 803 6 641 -12.1 -8.0 -20.1 3.4 16.6 -40.3 -6.3 -30.4 -7.1 -16.7 Asia & Oceania India Indonesia Papua New Guinea Thailand Vietnam Others Arabicas Robustas 34 529 5 158 7 483 807 766 19 340 976 3 836 30 693 31 408 4 460 7 777 968 653 16 467 1 083 4 248 27 160 35 153 4 371 9 612 1 028 675 18 500 967 4 415 30 738 36 934 4 827 11 380 1 004 930 18 000 793 5 104 31 830 5.1 10.4 18.4 -2.3 37.7 -2.7 -18.0 15.6 3.6 Mexico & Central America Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras M exico Nicaragua Others Arabicas Robustas 16 936 1 580 1 371 3 950 3 461 4 200 1 300 1 074 16 801 135 18 295 1 791 1 621 4 100 3 842 4 150 1 700 1 091 18 170 125 17 685 1 320 1 547 3 785 3 450 4 651 1 615 1 318 17 553 132 16 413 1 465 1 065 3 500 3 527 4 200 1 687 968 16 284 129 -7.2 11.0 -31.1 -7.5 2.2 -9.7 4.5 -26.5 -7.2 -2.3 South America Brazil Colombia Ecuador Peru Others Arabicas Robustas 62 288 42 512 12 541 1 167 4 319 1 750 52 479 9 810 54 435 36 070 12 504 1 110 3 063 1 689 43 180 11 256 60 307 45 992 8 664 691 3 872 1 088 49 389 10 917 53 112 39 470 8 500 813 3 315 1 014 42 056 11 056 -11.9 -14.2 -1.9 17.8 -14.4 -6.8 -14.8 1.3 129 250 13 876 28 077 38 830 48 468 119 320 13 674 27 650 31 617 46 379 128 434 9 995 27 376 41 306 49 757 119 903 9 620 25 218 35 408 49 657 -6.6 -3.7 -7.9 -14.3 -0.2 80 782 48 468 72 941 46 379 78 677 49 757 70 246 49 657 -10.7 -0.2 100.0 10.7 21.7 30.0 37.5 100.0 11.5 23.2 26.5 38.9 100.0 7.8 21.3 32.2 38.7 100.0 8.0 21.0 29.5 41.4 TOTAL Total production in crop year 2009/10 will be around 120 million bags, a fall of 6.6% in relation to crop year 2008/09 (Table 3). During this crop year production fell in Africa, in Central America and Mexico, and in South America. Asia recorded an increase in production despite falls in Vietnam and Papua New Guinea. For crop year 2010/11, in the absence of any new information from Member countries, my initial estimate of production remains unchanged at between 133 and 135 million bags. Although this crop year is a high production year in the biennial cycle characterising Arabica production in Brazil, climatic problems are likely to affect production in a number of exporting countries. With the exception of Honduras and Nicaragua, countries in the Mexico and Central America region are still experiencing climatic problems which, combined with high production costs, could reduce their prospects of increasing production. Adverse weather conditions could also affect Colombian production, which had shown signs of recovery after two consecutive years of low output. The situation is not much different in Vietnam, where the combined effects of climate change and the El Niño phenomenon are threatening agricultural production, including coffee. Graph 4: Total production by continent Crop years 2006/07 to 2009/10 140 120 Arabicas Robustas TO TAL Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilian Naturals Robustas 100 60.3 62.3 53.1 54.4 million bags TOTAL Colombian M ilds Other M ilds Brazilian Naturals Robustas 80 60 16.9 18.3 17.7 16.4 36.9 40 34.5 31.4 35.2 15.5 15.2 15.3 13.4 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 20 0 Arabicas Robustas In thousand bags 62.5 37.5 61.1 38.9 61.3 38.7 58.6 41.4 Africa Asia & Oceania Mexico & Central America South America 6 Table 4: Letter from the Executive Director – August 2010 Total exports of all forms of coffee (October – July 2008/09 and 2009/10) 2008/09 2009/10 % change TOTAL 82 740 78 452 -5.2 Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilian Naturals Robustas 8 965 18 241 25 945 29 589 6 989 18 594 25 145 27 724 -22.0 1.9 -3.1 -6.3 Arabicas Robustas 53 151 29 589 50 728 27 724 -4.6 -6.3 Angola Benin Bolivia Brazil Burundi Cameroon Central African Republic Colombia Congo, Dem. Rep. of Congo, Rep. of Costa Rica Côte d'Ivoire Cuba Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Ethiopia Gabon Ghana Guatemala Guinea Haiti Honduras India Indonesia Jamaica Kenya Madagascar Malawi Mexico Nicaragua Nigeria Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Rwanda Tanzania Thailand Togo Uganda Venezuela Vietnam Zambia Zimbabwe 5 0 59 26 471 336 444 22 7 741 125 0 1 241 1 159 7 105 785 1 211 1 458 0 14 3 094 280 15 2 799 2 525 5 163 21 487 53 13 2 379 1 204 3 62 726 1 2 596 6 271 1 110 137 124 2 598 19 15 498 27 18 4 0 63 24 789 80 776 21 6 070 100 0 1 111 1 742 5 35 885 950 2 224 1 12 3 010 342 2 3 055 3 800 5 423 12 488 43 12 2 239 1 527 0 41 818 0 2 231 6 184 552 157 198 2 285 5 12 813 29 14 -23.3 -10.9 -2.7 22.2 -85.1 9.2 50.5 5.0 -42.6 0.2 -19.8 -8.6 -5.9 26.9 -100.0 -33.8 12.7 -79.9 -14.0 -8.8 -32.0 -50.2 15.0 59.6 -12.1 -76.3 -17.3 4.8 -18.5 330 297 -9.9 Other exporting countries 1/ 8.0 -6.4 -76.1 74.9 -2.7 -21.6 -20.1 -10.5 50.3 -20.5 -66.8 12.7 -21.5 52.6 In thousand bags 1/ Equatorial Guinea, Guyana, Laos, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka, Timor-Leste, Trinidad and Tobago and Yemen Exports in July totalled 8.3 million bags, bringing the total volume exported during the first ten months of coffee year 2009/10 to 78.5 million bags compared to 82.7 million bags for the same period in 2008/09, a fall of 5.2% (Table 4). The most significant falls were recorded in the case of Colombian Milds, with a decline of 22% in export performance compared to the same period in 2008/09. Exports of Other Milds increased by 1.9% while those of Brazilian Naturals and Robustas fell by 3.1% and 6.3% respectively. The fall in Robusta exports was strongly influenced by the lower export figure for Vietnam, the world’s leading Robusta producer. The value of total exports in calendar year 2009 is estimated at US$13.30 billion for a volume of 96.3 million bags compared to US$15.38 billion for a volume of 97.7 million bags exported in 2008 (Table 5). The fall is attributable mainly to the lower average price of coffee in 2009 relative to 2008. Table 5: Volume and value of annual exports (Calendar years 2006 – 2009) Colombian Milds - Volume - Value Other Milds - Volume - Value Brazilian Naturals - Volume - Value Robustas - Volume - Value Total - Volume - Value 2006 2007 2008 2009 12.02 1.87 12.69 2.12 12.22 2.38 9.27 1.94 21.40 3.02 21.00 3.22 22.50 3.99 20.91 3.59 28.51 3.59 28.83 4.08 28.75 4.72 30.34 4.41 30.36 2.38 34.12 3.37 34.20 4.28 35.74 3.36 92.29 10.85 96.64 12.78 97.66 15.38 96.27 13.30 Volume in million bags – value in billion US$ On the basis of information provided by Members, world consumption in calendar year 2009 is estimated at 129.1 million bags compared to 130.7 million bags in 2008, a fall of 1.2% (Table 6). This fall is attributable to lower consumption in a number of importing countries, particularly in the European Union and in emerging markets. Consumption in exporting countries is continuing to grow. 7 Letter from the Executive Director – August 2010 Table 6: World consumption (Calendar years 2006 – 2009) 2006 WORLD TOTAL 2007 2008 2009 123 610 128 394 130 657 129 080 Producing Countries Brazil Indonesia Mexico Ethiopia Venezuela India Colombia Vietnam Philippines Others 33 500 16 133 2 750 1 794 1 833 1 472 1 357 1 400 829 917 5 015 35 366 16 927 3 208 2 050 1 833 1 534 1 438 1 400 938 989 5 051 36 702 17 526 3 333 2 200 1 833 1 599 1 518 1 400 1 021 1 070 5 202 37 705 18 208 3 333 2 200 1 833 1 649 1 573 1 400 1 208 1 080 5 221 Importing Countries 90 110 93 028 93 955 91 375 European Union Germany Italy France Spain United Kingdom Sweden Finland Greece Poland Others USA Japan 41 063 9 151 5 593 5 278 3 017 3 059 1 315 1 047 857 1 953 9 795 20 667 7 268 40 659 8 627 5 821 5 628 3 198 2 824 1 244 1 057 1 015 1 531 9 715 21 033 7 282 39 783 9 535 5 892 5 152 3 485 3 067 1 272 1 115 978 1 190 8 097 21 652 7 065 38 627 8 897 5 835 5 568 3 352 3 221 1 133 1 058 974 970 7 619 21 437 7 130 Other Importing Countries Canada Russian Federation Algeria Ukraine Korea, Republic of Australia Others In thousand bags 21 111 3 066 3 263 1 836 968 1 437 992 9 549 24 054 3 245 4 055 1 968 1 057 1 425 1 031 11 273 25 455 3 210 3 716 2 118 1 733 1 665 1 145 11 869 24 181 3 292 3 131 2 066 1 460 1 551 1 223 11 458 Tables 7 and 8 show per capita consumption in selected exporting and importing countries. Per capita consumption in Brazil is higher than in the United States of America. Table 7: Per capita consumption in selected exporting countries (Calendar years 2006 – 2009) Brazil Honduras Venezuela Costa Rica Dominican Republic El Salvador Nicaragua Haiti Colombia Guatemala Madagascar Ethiopia Mexico Panama Cuba Côte d'Ivoire Indonesia Vietnam Philippines Ecuador In kilogrammes 2006 2007 2008 2009 5.14 1.96 3.25 4.77 2.35 2.05 2.06 2.13 1.92 1.38 1.55 1.44 1.01 1.22 1.20 0.97 0.74 0.58 0.63 0.68 5.34 2.41 3.33 4.19 2.31 2.20 2.04 2.10 1.89 1.35 1.51 1.40 1.14 1.20 1.20 0.94 0.86 0.65 0.67 0.67 5.48 3.77 3.41 3.54 2.28 2.25 2.01 2.06 1.87 1.35 1.47 1.36 1.22 1.18 1.16 0.92 0.88 0.70 0.71 0.67 5.69 3.77 3.52 3.17 2.28 2.25 2.22 2.06 1.87 1.47 1.47 1.36 1.22 1.18 1.15 0.92 0.88 0.83 0.72 0.67 Graph 5: World consumption Calendar years 2006 to 2009 140 130 120 110 100 million bags 90 80 93.0 94.0 91.4 36.7 37.7 2008 2009 90.1 70 60 50 40 30 20 33.5 35.4 10 0 2006 2007 Exportng countries Importing countries 8 Table 8: Letter from the Executive Director – August 2010 Per capita consumption in selected importing countries (Calendar years 2006 – 2009) Table 9 shows retail prices for the month of March 2008 to 2010. In relation to their levels in March 2009 retail prices in March 2010 were higher in Algeria Australia Canada European Union Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom Japan Korea, Republic of New Zealand Norway Russian Federation Serbia Switzerland Tunisia Ukraine USA In kilogrammes 2006 2007 2008 2009 3.30 2.88 5.64 3.49 2.97 5.91 3.70 3.26 5.79 3.61 3.48 5.94 4.44 8.81 3.28 3.94 3.70 9.09 7.45 11.93 5.16 6.66 4.64 3.57 2.85 5.69 4.76 3.78 29.76 4.27 7.79 3.07 3.80 2.33 3.13 5.26 4.15 8.66 3.03 6.12 6.28 2.86 4.87 3.97 8.52 4.52 12.00 5.47 6.29 5.48 3.12 3.37 5.89 3.46 4.11 31.66 2.35 8.36 2.41 4.04 2.30 3.96 5.82 4.36 8.15 2.78 6.53 3.68 3.51 5.38 3.61 7.64 6.88 12.61 4.98 6.95 5.27 2.96 1.56 5.93 3.06 3.68 29.79 3.35 4.80 1.87 3.89 2.27 3.79 5.78 4.70 8.29 3.01 6.35 5.27 3.25 5.20 3.04 7.89 5.53 11.92 5.36 6.50 5.24 2.67 1.79 5.85 2.35 3.83 27.40 2.07 3.35 1.53 4.04 2.19 2.36 5.89 4.48 7.35 3.14 3.42 1.81 3.70 9.25 1.37 3.71 7.48 1.21 1.25 4.06 3.43 1.78 3.66 9.81 1.71 3.75 7.90 1.51 1.37 4.09 3.33 2.07 3.65 8.99 1.58 4.15 9.14 1.87 2.26 4.17 3.36 1.93 3.49 8.92 1.33 3.59 7.65 1.70 1.91 4.09 almost all importing countries. Table 9: Retail prices of roasted coffee in selected importing countries (March 2008 – 2010) 2008 European Union Austria 1/ Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Denmark Finland France Germany Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta 2/ Netherlands Poland Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom 2/ March 2009 2010 463.39 658.90 672.04 563.38 492.10 508.65 428.60 357.81 651.42 547.11 570.31 536.43 489.23 378.88 322.94 339.10 405.64 352.52 369.93 543.66 441.23 814.09 718.63 751.57 574.24 582.76 769.02 681.37 707.80 1 365.51 1 208.96 1 344.08 532.40 440.05 461.23 294.10 583.80 501.56 513.58 504.48 473.17 499.41 521.13 442.41 442.06 445.08 392.73 401.99 384.96 303.97 381.23 1 763.48 1 467.37 1 549.53 Japan 1/ 909.08 Norway 494.62 USA In US cents per lb 1/ Change in type of coffee product 2/ Soluble coffee 633.05 367.49 671.49 % change 2010-2009 2.0 3.4 4.2 5.0 4.9 4.6 3.9 11.2 2.4 5.5 -0.1 2.4 25.4 5.6 6.1 356.50 In conclusion, it should be noted that despite anticipating an increase in world production in crop year 2010/11, the market continues to be highly nervous and tight given the negligible level of world stocks and the precarious equilibrium between supply and demand.