SMART GRID INSIGHTS MAY 2013 SMARTGRIDRESEARCH.ORG INTELLIGENT RESEARCH FOR AN INTELLIGENT MARKETTM SMART GRID INDEX INTELLIGENCE BY ZPRYME | ZPRYME.COM © 2013 ZPRYME RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. SMART GRID INDEX: MAY 2013 Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................. 2 Methodology .......................................................................... 2 June Survey ............................................................................. 2 Monthly Key Metric Trend Analysis....................................... 3 Smart Grid Sentiment............................................................... 4 Expected Utility Investments over the Next 12 Months ........ 5 Sales/Expenditures over the Past 12 Months......................... 6 Sales/Expenditures over the Next 12 Months........................ 7 Expected Staff/Jobs over the Next 12 Months ...................... 8 New Deals Closed Last Month ................................................ 9 Value of Deals Closed ........................................................... 10 Expected Proposals Submitted over the Next 12 Months .. 11 Expected Utility Spending on Analytics............................... 12 Respondent Industry Representation ................................... 13 About The Smart Grid Index ................................................. 13 1 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2013 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. Smart Grid Index | May 2013 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org | www.fiercesmartgrid.com Executive Summary May 2013 Smart Grid Index Results In May, overall Smart Grid sentiment increased by one percentage point, to 72%. However, only 23% of executives surveyed expect utility Smart Grid investments to significantly increase over the next 12 months. Fortyfour percent of all respondents said they expect Smart Grid hiring to increase over the next 12 months. Twentyeight percent of the vendors surveyed closed a new deal last month, while 88% of utilities expect to submit new Smart Grid proposals for budget approval. Overall Sentiment 72% currently have a positive view of the Smart Grid, a 1 percentage point increase from last month. The amount of vendors who indicated they closed a deal in the previous month has decreased for four consecutive months. The average sales volume among vendors who closed deals last month was $11.03 million. Current Sales/Expenditures 58% said their Smart Grid related sales or expenditures have increased over the last 12 months, a 2 percentage point increase from last month. When it comes to analytics, utilities expect to spend an average of $2.2 million over the next 12 months. Expected Sales/Expenditures 72% expect their Smart Grid related sales or expenditures to increase over the next 12 months, a 7 percentage point increase from last month. Methodology This study was conducted by Zpryme and FierceSmartGrid by surveying 212 Smart Grid executives from May 1st to May 20th of 2013. The survey was conducted online. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Three groups were used to inspect for differences: vendors (57% of sample), utilities (24% of sample), and total sample. June Survey June’s survey will be fielded from June 1st to June 16th of 2013. Utilities and Smart Grid vendors are encouraged to participate. 2 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2013 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. Expected Utility Investments 23% expect utility Smart Grid related investments to significantly increase over the next 12 months, a 10 percentage point decrease from last month. Hiring 44% expect the number of staff in Smart Grid related roles to increase over the next 12 months, a 2 percentage point decrease from last month. Deals Closed 28% of vendors said they closed new Smart Grid related deals last month, an 8 percentage point decrease from last month. New Proposals 88% of utilities said they plan to submit new Smart Grid proposals for budget approval over the next 12 months, a 21 percentage point increase from last month. Smart Grid Index | May 2013 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org | www.fiercesmartgrid.com Monthly Key Metric Trend Analysis by Respondent Type (table 1, source: Zpryme/FierceSmartGrid November 2012 through May 2013 Smart Grid Index Survey) Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 March 13 April 13 May 13 Percentage point change All Respondents 71% 66% 67% 71% 72% 71% 72% 1% Utilities 60% 67% 71% 83% 72% 79% 63% -16% Vendors 78% 70% 68% 77% 74% 73% 77% 4% Metric Trend (+/-) % Who have a positive view of the Smart Grid industry + + % Who expect global utility investments on Smart Grid technologies to increase significantly over the next 12 months - All Respondents 31% 30% 31% 35% 37% 33% 23% -10% Utilities 25% 30% 39% 40% 33% 21% 19% -2% Vendors 33% 33% 28% 34% 41% 30% 21% -9% All Respondents 60% 61% 58% 64% 52% 56% 58% 2% Utilities 61% 48% 82% 64% 72% 71% 60% -11% Vendors 65% 65% 49% 51% 48% 50% 55% 5% All Respondents 71% 67% 66% 68% 68% 65% 72% 7% Utilities 68% 53% 59% 52% 67% 65% 80% 15% Vendors 74% 76% 69% 74% 68% 65% 69% 4% All Respondents 56% 54% 51% 50% 52% 46% 44% -2% Utilities 47% 44% 29% 37% 37% 52% 50% -2% Vendors 60% 57% 54% 50% 59% 41% 44% 3% + 45% 45% 46% 44% 41% 36% 28% -8% - 61% 70% 75% 67% 88% 21% + % Who have increased Smart Grid sales or expenditures over the past 12 months + + % Who expect to increase Smart Grid sales or expenditures over the next 12 months + + + % Who expect to increase Smart Grid staff over the next 12 months % Who closed a new Smart Grid deal last month Vendors % Who expect to submit new Smart Grid proposals for budget approval over the next 12 months Utilities 3 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2013 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. 75% 73% Smart Grid Index | May 2013 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org | www.fiercesmartgrid.com Smart Grid Sentiment Seventy-two percent of respondents had a positive view about the global Smart Grid industry, with vendors being more positive (77%) than utilities (63%). About one out of 10 of all respondents and 6% of utilities had a negative view. Compared to last month, those with a positive view increased by one percentage point among all respondents and by 4 percentage points among vendors. Among utilities, this figure fell by 16 percentage points in May. What is your current view of the global Smart Grid industry? 100% 90% 80% 70% 20% 13% 31% 9% 10% Neutral 6% 60% Negative 50% 40% 30% Positive 72% 77% 63% 20% 10% 0% All Respondents Utilities Vendors (figure 1, source: Zpryme/FierceSmartGrid May 2013 Smart Grid Index Survey) 4 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2013 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. Smart Grid Index | May 2013 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org | www.fiercesmartgrid.com Expected Utility Investments/Expenditures over the Next 12 Months Vendors were slightly more optimistic than utilities about global utility expenditures on Smart Grid technologies, as 21% of vendors said they expect investments to increase significantly over the next 12 months (vs. 19% for utilities). Compared to last month, the percent of respondents who expect expenditures to increase fell by 10 percentage points among all respondents, by 2 percentage points among vendors, and by 9 percentage points among utilities. Over the next 12 months, global utility investments or expenditures on Smart Grid Technologies are expected to: 100% 90% 1% 5% 14% 8% 25% 8% 80% Decrease a little 70% 60% 50% 57% 56% 64% 40% Stay the same Increase a little 30% Increase significantly 20% 10% Decrease significantly 23% 19% 21% All Respondents Utilities Vendors 0% (figure 2, source: Zpryme/FierceSmartGrid May 2013 Smart Grid Index Survey) 5 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2013 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. Smart Grid Index | May 2013 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org | www.fiercesmartgrid.com Sales/Expenditures over the Past 12 Months Over the past 12 months, 58% of all respondents increased their Smart Grid sales and/or expenditures. Just over half (55%) of the vendors and 60% of utilities indicated that their sales and/or expenditures increased over the past 12 months. Thirteen percent of the total sample, 13% of utilities, and 15% of vendors reported a decrease. Compared to last month, those who increased their sales or expenditures increased by 2 percentage points among all respondents and by 5 percentage points among vendors. This figure decreased by 11 percentage points among utilities in May. Over the past 12 months, my company's Smart Grid related sales and/or investments (or expenditures) have: 100% 90% 13% 13% 29% 27% 15% 80% 70% 30% 60% Decreased 50% Stayed the same 40% Increased 30% 58% 60% All Respondents Utilities 55% 20% 10% 0% Vendors (figure 3, source: Zpryme/FierceSmartGrid May 2013 Smart Grid Index Survey) 6 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2013 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. Smart Grid Index | May 2013 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org | www.fiercesmartgrid.com Sales/Expenditures over the Next 12 Months Over the next 12 months, 72% of respondents of all respondents expect Smart Grid sales and/or expenditures to increase. Compared to last month, those who expect sales or expenditures to increase rose in all three groups, by 7 percentage points among all respondents, by 15 percentage points among utilities, and by 4 percentage points among vendors. Over the next 12 months, my company's Smart Grid related sales and/or investments (or expenditures) are expected to: 100% 7% 90% 80% 22% 7% 13% 6% 25% 70% Decrease 60% Stay the same 50% 40% 30% 72% 80% 69% Increase 20% 10% 0% All Respondents Utilities Vendors (figure 4, source: Zpryme/FierceSmartGrid May 2013 Smart Grid Index Survey) 7 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2013 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. Smart Grid Index | May 2013 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org | www.fiercesmartgrid.com Expected Staff/Jobs over the Next 12 Months Over the next 12 months, 44% of respondents expect hiring to increase, while 13% of utilities and 4% of vendors project a decrease in hiring. Compared to last month, those who expect an increase in hiring fell by 2 percentage points among all respondents and utilities. Among vendors, this figure increased by 3 percentage points. Over the next 12 months, the number of staff/jobs in Smart Grid related roles are expected to: 100% 6% 90% 13% 3% 80% 70% 50% 38% 53% Decrease 60% 50% Stay the same 40% 30% 20% 44% 50% Increase 44% 10% 0% All Respondents Utilities Vendors (figure 5, source: Zpryme/FierceSmartGrid May 2013 Smart Grid Index Survey) 8 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2013 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. Smart Grid Index | May 2013 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org | www.fiercesmartgrid.com New Deals Closed Last Month Only twenty-eight percent of vendors surveyed said that they had closed new deals last month, an 8 percentage point decrease from last month. This is the fourth month in row that this figure has decreased. Last month, did your company close any new Smart Grid related deals (sales, partnerships, investments, aquisitions, etc.)?* Yes, 28% No, 72% (figure 6, source: Zpryme/FierceSmartGrid May 2013 Smart Grid Index Survey) *Fifty-seven percent of the sample was made up of vendors. Vendor industries are those respondents identified as manufacturers of power products or systems, technology vendors or integrators, and business, technical, and/or engineering consultants. 9 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2013 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. Smart Grid Index | May 2013 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org | www.fiercesmartgrid.com Value of Deals Closed Among the vendors who closed a deal (or deals) last month, 30% of them closed deals over $10.0 million. The weighted average of the deals closed last month was $11.03 million. What was the estimated total volume of sales/deals that your company closed last month? * 35% 30% 30% 25% 20% 20% 15% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% $1,000,001 to $5,000,000 $10,000,001 to $20,000,000 $30,000,001 to $40,000,000 Over $50,000,000 5% 0% Less than $100,000 $100,001 to $500,000 $500,001 to $1,000,000 (figure 7, source: Zpryme/FierceSmartGrid May 2013 Smart Grid Index Survey) *Fifty-seven percent of the sample was made up of vendors. Vendor industries are those respondents identified as manufacturers of power products or systems, technology vendors or integrators, and business, technical, and/or engineering consultants. 10 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2013 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. Smart Grid Index | May 2013 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org | www.fiercesmartgrid.com Expected Proposals Submitted over the Next 12 Months Nearly nine out of ten utilities (88%) expect to submit new Smart Grid proposals over the next 12 months. This represents a 21 percentage point increase from last month. Over the next 12 months, does your utility plan to submit any new Smart Grid proposals, plans or pilots for budget approval?* No, 13% Yes, 88% (figure 8, source: Zpryme/FierceSmartGrid May 2013 Smart Grid Index Survey) *Twenty-four percent of the sample was made up of utilities. 11 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2013 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. Smart Grid Index | May 2013 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org | www.fiercesmartgrid.com Expected Utility Spending on Analytics over the Next 12 Months Over the next 12 months, 38% of utilities surveyed said they expect to spend $1.0 million or more on analytics software or systems. The weighted average expected spending on analytics was $2.20 million. Over the next 12 months, how much does your utility plan to spend on data analytics software and/or systems?* 30% 25% 25% 25% 20% 15% 13% 13% 10% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 0% Less than $5,000 $5,000 to $50,000 $50,001 to $100,000 $100,001 to $500,000 $500,001 to $1,000,000 $1,000,001 to $5,000,001 to $5,000,000 $10,000,000 Over $10,000,000 (figure 9, source: Zpryme/FierceSmartGrid May 2013 Smart Grid Index Survey) *Twenty-four percent of the sample was made up of utilities. 12 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2013 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. Smart Grid Index | May 2013 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org | www.fiercesmartgrid.com Respondent Industry Representation About The Smart Grid Index Twenty-four percent of respondents were utilities, while 57% were vendors. Vendor industries are those respondents identified as manufacturer of power products or systems, technology vendor or integrators, and business, technical, and/or engineering consultants. The remaining 19% were from the education, nonprofit, government, and other industries. The SGI is developed by Zpryme’s Smart Grid Insights and FierceSmartGrid. The monthly Smart Grid Index is an objective and unbiased market indicator that captures the real-time industry sentiment, outlook, and performance. Industry Representation of Respondents Nonprofit organization, 6% State/federal government, 3% Education institution, 3% Other, 7% Utility, 24% Technology vendor or integrator, 10% Manufacturer of power products or systems, 24% Government data and statistics are usually 1 to 2 years behind. Additionally, major industry announcements and deals only capture a small fraction of market activity. Such lack of data can lead to poor investment decision criteria for utilities and technology vendors operating (or seeking to enter) in the Smart Grid space. Thus, the goal of the monthly Smart Grid Index is to provide credible, reliable, and timely market information for utilities and Smart Grid executives so they can better assess their performance versus their peers, and decrease the risk associated with Smart Grid related investments. Consultant (business, technical, or engineering), 24% (figure 10, source: Zpryme/FierceSmartGrid May 2013 Smart Grid Index Survey) 13 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2013 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. Smart Grid Index | May 2013 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org | www.fiercesmartgrid.com About Zpryme Smart Grid Insights Practice: Zpyme Credits Zpryme-powered Smart Grid Insights Publication, Practice and Advisory Board help organizations understand their business environment, engage consumers, inspire innovation, and take action. Zpryme Smart Grid Insights represents an evolution beyond traditional market research and consulting: combining sound fundamentals, innovative tools and methodologies, industry experience, and creative marketing savvy to supercharge clients’ success. At Zpryme, we don’t produce tables and charts; we deliver opportunity-focused, actionable insight that is both engaging and easy-to-digest. For more information regarding our custom research, visit: www.zpryme.com. Research Manager Roger Alford, Ph.D. Zpryme Smart Grid Insights Contact: smart.grid@zpryme.com | +1 888.ZPRYME.1 (+1 888.977.9631) www.smartgridresearch.org (Zpryme Smart Grid Insights) Sr. Research Analysts Megan Dean Paula Smith Disclaimer: These materials and the information contained herein are provided by Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC and are intended to provide general information on a particular subject or subjects and is not an exhaustive treatment of such subject(s). 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About FierceSmartGrid: Written with a focus on industry CTOs and technical infrastructure decision-makers, FierceSmartGrid covers the latest business and technology news surrounding network intelligence, home networking, smart meters, and other key issues pertinent to the efficient delivery of economic, reliable, and sustainable energy services. In addition to a free weekly email newsletter to keep up with this evolving marketplace, thousands of energy and telecom industry insiders who already subscribe to FierceSmartGrid also receive access to unique special reports, eBooks, webinars, events, and whitepapers. Join FierceSmartGrid today to get an edge in the energy delivery industry. FierceSmartGrid Contact: editors@fiercesmartgrid.com www.fiercesmartgrid.com 14 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2013 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. 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