SMART GRID INSIGHTS FEBRUARY 2013 SMARTGRIDRESEARCH.ORG INTELLIGENT RESEARCH FOR AN INTELLIGENT MARKETTM SMART GRID INDEX INTELLIGENCE BY ZPRYME | ZPRYME.COM © 2013 ZPRYME RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. SMART GRID INDEX: FEBRUARY 2013 Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................. 2 Methodology .......................................................................... 2 March Survey .......................................................................... 2 Monthly Key Metric Trend Analysis....................................... 3 Smart Grid Sentiment............................................................... 4 Expected Utility Expenditures over the Next 12 Months....... 5 Sales/Expenditures over the Last 12 Months ......................... 6 Sales/Expenditures over the Next 12 Months........................ 7 Expected Staff/Jobs over the Next 12 Months ...................... 8 New Deals Closed Last Month ................................................ 9 Expected Proposals over the Next 12 Months .................... 10 Utility 2013 Smart Grid Budget/Expenditures....................... 11 U.S. Utility Customer Education and Awareness ................. 12 Respondent Industry Representation ................................... 13 About The Smart Grid Index ................................................. 13 1 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2013 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. Smart Grid Index | February 2013 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org | www.fiercesmartgrid.com Executive Summary This month’s Smart Grid Index (SGI) results show that overall Smart Grid sentiment increased by four percentage points in February. Utility sentiment increased for the fourth month in row, up by twelve percentage points, while vendor sentiment increased by nine percentage points. Half of all respondents said they expect Smart Grid hiring to increase over the next 12 months. Forty-four percent of the vendors surveyed closed a new deal last month, while 70% of utilities expect to submit new Smart Grid proposals for budget approval over the next 12 months. Surprisingly, 52% of executives did not believe that U.S. utilities were adequately educating customers about the Smart Grid. Twelve utilities reported their estimated 2013 Smart Grid budgets. Among this group, the median budget was $4 million. However, three utilities reported an estimated budget of $50 million or more. Methodology This study was conducted by Zpryme and FierceSmartGrid by surveying 220 Smart Grid executives from February 3rd to February 18th of 2013. The survey was conducted online. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Three groups were used to inspect for differences: vendors (58% of sample), utilities (15% of sample), and total sample. March Survey March’s survey will be fielded from March 1st to March 17th of 2013. Utilities and Smart Grid vendors are encouraged to participate. 2 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2013 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. February 2013 Smart Grid Index Results Overall Sentiment 71% currently have a positive view of the Smart Grid, a 4 percentage point increase from last month. Expected Utility Investments 35% expect utility Smart Grid related investments to significantly increase over the next 12 months, a 4 percentage point increase from last month. Current Sales/Expenditures 64% said their Smart Grid related sales or expenditures have increased over the last 12 months, a 6 percentage point increase from last month. Expected Sales/Expenditures 68% expect their Smart Grid related sales or expenditures to increase over the next 12 months, a 2 percentage point increase from last month. Hiring 50% expect the number of staff in Smart Grid related roles to increase over the next 12 months, a 1 percentage point decrease from last month. Deals Closed 44% of vendor respondents said they closed new Smart Grid related deals last month, a 2 percentage point decrease from last month. New Proposals 70% of utility respondents plan to submit new Smart Grid proposals for budget approval over the next 12 months, a 9 percentage point increase from last month. Smart Grid Index | February 2013 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org | www.fiercesmartgrid.com Monthly Key Metric Trend Analysis by Respondent Type (table 1, source: Zpryme/FierceSmartGrid November 2012 through February 2013 Smart Grid Index Survey) Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Net percentage point change All Respondents 71% 66% 67% 71% 4% Utilities 60% 67% 71% 83% 12% Vendors 78% 70% 68% 77% 9% Metric Trend (+/-) % Who have a positive view of the Smart Grid industry + + + % Who expect global utility investments on Smart Grid technologies to increase significantly over the next 12 months + + + All Respondents 31% 30% 31% 35% 4% Utilities 25% 30% 39% 40% 1% Vendors 33% 33% 28% 34% 6% All Respondents 60% 61% 58% 64% 6% Utilities 61% 48% 82% 64% -18% Vendors 65% 65% 49% 51% 3% All Respondents 71% 67% 66% 68% 2% Utilities 68% 53% 59% 52% -7% Vendors 74% 76% 69% 74% 5% All Respondents 56% 54% 51% 50% -1% Utilities 47% 44% 29% 37% 8% Vendors 60% 57% 54% 50% -4% + - 45% 45% 46% 44% -2% - 75% 73% 61% 70% 9% + % Who have increased Smart Grid sales or expenditures over the past 12 months + + % Who expect to increase Smart Grid sales or expenditures over the next 12 months + + % Who expect to increase Smart Grid staff over the next 12 months % Who closed a new Smart Grid deal last month Vendors % Who expect to submit new Smart Grid proposals for budget approval over the next 12 months Utilities 3 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2012 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. Smart Grid Index | February 2013 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org | www.fiercesmartgrid.com Smart Grid Sentiment Seventy-one percent of respondents were positive about the global Smart Grid industry, with utilities more positive (83%) than vendors (77%). Only 8% of all respondents and utilities had a negative view (vs. 11% last month). Compared to last month, respondents with a positive view of the Smart Grid increased by 4 percentage points among all respondents, by 12 percentage points among utilities, and by 9 percentage points among vendors. What is your current view of the global Smart Grid industry? 100% 90% 80% 70% 20% 13% 3% 8% 16% 7% Neutral Negative 60% 50% 40% 30% 71% 83% Positive 77% 20% 10% 0% All Respondents Utilities Vendors (figure 1, source: Zpryme/FierceSmartGrid February 2013 Smart Grid Index Survey) 4 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2013 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. Smart Grid Index | February 2013 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org | www.fiercesmartgrid.com Expected Utility Investments/Expenditures over the Next 12 Months Utilities are more optimistic than vendors about global utility expenditures on Smart Grid technologies as 40% of utilities said they expect investments to increase significantly over the next 12 months (vs. 34% for vendors). Compared to last month, the percent of respondents who expect expenditures to increase rose by 4 percentage points among all respondents (35%), by 1 percentage point among utilities, and by 6 percentage points among vendors. Over the next 12 months, global utility investments or expenditures on Smart Grid Technologies are expected to: 100% 90% 80% 2% 7% 3% 10% 12% 2% 6% 13% 17% Decrease a little 70% 60% 44% 50% 30% 45% 40% Stay the same Increase a little 30% 20% Decrease significantly 35% 40% 34% Increase significantly 10% 0% All Respondents Utilities Vendors (figure 2, source: Zpryme/FierceSmartGrid February 2013 Smart Grid Index Survey) 5 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2013 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. Smart Grid Index | February 2013 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org | www.fiercesmartgrid.com Sales/Expenditures over the Last 12 Months Over the past 12 months, the majority of all three groups had increased their Smart Grid sales and/or expenditures. Fourteen percent of both the total sample and utilities reported decreases, while only 8% of vendors reported a decrease. Compared to last month, the percent of respondents who increased their sales or expenditures increased by 6 percentage points among all respondents, and by 3 percentage points among vendors. However, this figure decreased by 18 percentage points among utilities. Over the past 12 months, my company's Smart Grid related sales and/or investments (or expenditures) have: 100% 90% 80% 70% 14% 14% 21% 21% 8% 41% 60% Decreased 50% Stayed the same 40% Increased 30% 64% 64% 51% 20% 10% 0% All Respondents Utilities Vendors (figure 3, source: Zpryme/FierceSmartGrid February 2013 Smart Grid Index Survey) 6 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2013 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. Smart Grid Index | February 2013 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org | www.fiercesmartgrid.com Sales/Expenditures over the Next 12 Months Over the next 12 months, most respondents in all three groups expect Smart Grid sales and/or expenditures to increase. However, vendors were more optimistic than utilities and the total sample (68%). Compared to last month, respondents who expect sales or expenditures to increase rose by 2 percentage points among all respondents and by 5 percentage points among vendors. However, this figure decreased by 7 percentage points among utilities. Over the next 12 months, my company's Smart Grid related sales and/or investments (or expenditures) are expected to: 100% 7% 90% 80% 17% 21% 25% 70% 5% Decrease 31% 60% Stay the same 50% 40% 30% 74% 68% Increase 52% 20% 10% 0% All Respondents Utilities Vendors (figure 4, source: Zpryme/FierceSmartGrid February 2013 Smart Grid Index Survey) 7 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2013 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. Smart Grid Index | February 2013 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org | www.fiercesmartgrid.com Expected Staff/Jobs over the Next 12 Months Over the next 12 months, 50% of respondents expect hiring to increase, while 27% of utilities and 8% of vendors project a decrease in hiring. Compared to last month, respondents who expect hiring to increase fell by 1 percentage point among all respondents and by 4 percentage points among vendors. This figure increased by 8 percentage points among utilities. Over the next 12 months, the number of staff/jobs in Smart Grid related roles are expected to: 100% 90% 8% 10% 27% 80% 70% 42% 40% 60% Decrease 37% 50% Stay the same 40% 30% 20% 50% 37% 50% Increase 10% 0% All Respondents Utilities Vendors (figure 5, source: Zpryme/FierceSmartGrid February 2013 Smart Grid Index Survey) 8 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2013 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. Smart Grid Index | February 2013 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org | www.fiercesmartgrid.com New Deals Closed Last Month Forty-four percent of vendors surveyed said that they had closed new deals last month, a two percentage point decrease from last month. Last month, did your company close any new Smart Grid related deals (sales, partnerships, investments, aquisitions, etc.)?* Yes, 44% No, 56% (figure 6, source: Zpryme/FierceSmartGrid February 2013 Smart Grid Index Survey) *Fifty-eight percent of the sample was made up of vendors. Vendor industries are those respondents identified as manufacturers of power products or systems, technology vendors or integrators, and business, technical, and/or engineering consultants. 9 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2013 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. Smart Grid Index | February 2013 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org | www.fiercesmartgrid.com Expected Proposals Submitted over the Next 12 Months A majority of utilities (70%) expect to submit new Smart Grid proposals over the next 12 months. This represents a 9 percentage point increase from last month. Over the next 12 months, does your utility plan to submit any new Smart Grid proposals, plans or pilots for budget approval?* No, 30% Yes, 70% (figure 7, source: Zpryme/FierceSmartGrid February 2013 Smart Grid Index Survey) *Fifteen percent of the sample was made up of utilities. 10 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2013 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. Smart Grid Index | February 2013 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org | www.fiercesmartgrid.com Utility 2013 Smart Grid Budget/Expenditures A small sample of utilities (12) reported their estimated 2013 Smart Grid expenditures. Among this group, the median 2013 utility Smart Grid budget was $4 million. Three utilities reported an estimated budget of $50 million or more. Eight of the utilities had a budget between $1 million to $10 million. In 2013, what is your utility's estimated budget/expenditures for Smart Grid technologies? Count of responses by Budget Amount (n = 12) 10 8 8 6 4 3 2 1 0 Below $1M $1M to $10M $50M and above (figure 8, source: Zpryme/FierceSmartGrid February 2013 Smart Grid Index Survey) *12 utilities provided estimated 2013 Smart Grid budgets. Use caution when reading the data due to the small sample size. 11 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2013 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. Smart Grid Index | February 2013 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org | www.fiercesmartgrid.com U.S. Utility Customer Education and Awareness Fifty-two percent of executives did not believe that U.S. utilities were adequately educating customers about the Smart Grid and/or smart meters. Twenty-eight percent said they were, but utilities needed to invest more resources in this area. Only 6% said U.S. utilities were doing a great job of educating their customers. In your opinion, do you believe utilities in the U.S. are adequately addressing customer education and awareness about the Smart Grid (and/or smart meters)? No 14% 6% Yes, but they need to invest more resources in this area 52% 28% Yes, they are doing a great job of customer education Not sure (figure 9, source: Zpryme/FierceSmartGrid February 2013 Smart Grid Index Survey) 12 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2013 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. Smart Grid Index | February 2013 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org | www.fiercesmartgrid.com Respondent Industry Representation About The Smart Grid Index Fifteen percent of respondents were utilities, while 58% were vendors. Vendor industries are those respondents identified as manufacturer of power products or systems, technology vendor or integrators, and business, technical, and/or engineering consultants. The remaining 27% were from the educational, nonprofit, power generation, government, and other industries. The SGI is developed by Zpryme’s Smart Grid Insights and FierceSmartGrid. The monthly Smart Grid Index is an objective and unbiased market indicator that captures the real-time industry sentiment, outlook, and performance. Industry Representation of Respondents Nonprofit organization, 5% State/federal government, 3% Education institution, 6% Utility, 15% Other, 10% Power generation, 4% Technology vendor or integrator, 26% Manufacturer of power products or systems, 8% Government data and statistics are usually 1 to 2 years behind. Additionally, major industry announcements and deals only capture a small fraction of market activity. Such lack of data can lead to poor investment decision criteria for utilities and technology vendors operating (or seeking to enter) in the Smart Grid space. Thus, the goal of the monthly Smart Grid Index is to provide credible, reliable, and timely market information for utilities and Smart Grid executives so they can better assess their performance versus their peers, and decrease the risk associated with Smart Grid related investments. Consultant (business, technical, or engineering), 24% (figure 10, source: Zpryme/FierceSmartGrid February 2013 Smart Grid Index Survey) 13 [SGI] ZPRYME SMART GRID INSIGHTS Copyright © 2012 Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC All rights reserved. Smart Grid Index | February 2013 www.zpryme.com | www.smartgridresearch.org | www.fiercesmartgrid.com About Zpryme Smart Grid Insights Practice: Zpyme Credits Zpryme-powered Smart Grid Insights Publication, Practice and Advisory Board help organizations understand their business environment, engage consumers, inspire innovation, and take action. Zpryme Smart Grid Insights represents an evolution beyond traditional market research and consulting: combining sound fundamentals, innovative tools and methodologies, industry experience, and creative marketing savvy to supercharge clients’ success. At Zpryme, we don’t produce tables and charts; we deliver opportunity-focused, actionable insight that is both engaging and easy-to-digest. For more information regarding our custom research, visit: www.zpryme.com. Research Manager Roger Alford, Ph.D. Zpryme Smart Grid Insights Contact: smart.grid@zpryme.com | +1 888.ZPRYME.1 (+1 888.977.9631) www.smartgridresearch.org (Zpryme Smart Grid Insights) Sr. Research Analysts Megan Dean Paula Smith Disclaimer: These materials and the information contained herein are provided by Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC and are intended to provide general information on a particular subject or subjects and is not an exhaustive treatment of such subject(s). Accordingly, the information in these materials is not intended to constitute accounting, tax, legal, investment, consulting or other professional advice or services. The information is not intended to be relied upon as the sole basis for any decision which may affect you or your business. Before making any decision or taking any action that might affect your personal finances or business, you should consult a qualified professional adviser. These materials and the information contained herein is provided as is, and Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC makes no express or implied representations or warranties regarding these materials and the information herein. Without limiting the foregoing, Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC does not warrant that the materials or information contained herein will be error-free or will meet any particular criteria of performance or quality. Zpryme Research & Consulting, LLC expressly disclaims all implied warranties, including, without limitation, warranties of merchantability, title, fitness for a particular purpose, noninfringement, compatibility, security, and accuracy. Prediction of future events is inherently subject to both known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to vary materially. 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