Brendan
Krueger
Phy
688,
Spring
2009
May
6th,
2009

Development
of
the
theory
 Alvarez
hypothesis
 Periodicity
of
extinctions
 Proposal
of
a
solar
companion

Orbit
of
Nemesis
 Proposed
orbit
 Current
location
 Stability

Detection
of
Nemesis
 Why
we
haven’t
seen
it
 Pan‐STARRS
 LSST

Alternate
theory
 Oscillation
through
the
galactic
plane
Nemesis,
Brendan
Krueger
2
The
Alvarez
hypothesis
Periodicity
of
extinctions
Proposal
of
a
solar
companion
Nemesis,
Brendan
Krueger
3
Alvarez
!"#$%&#
(1980)
Depletion
of
platinum
metals
(Ru,
Rh,
Pd,
Os,
Ir,
Pt)
on
Earth
 Increased
iridium
coincident
with
Cretaceous‐
Tertiary
extinction
(K‐T
Event)
 Massive
asteroid
impact

 Diameter:
10
±
4
km
 Abundances
suggest
impactor
origin
is
solar,
but
extraterrestrial
 Spread
dust
throughout
atmosphere
▪ Extinction
(block
sunlight,
etc.)
▪ Iridium‐rich
layer
in
geologic
record
Nemesis,
Brendan
Krueger
4
Alvarez
!"#$%&#
(1980)
Artist&s conception o- the /-T E3ent
4C6EE/-shoe-lube:
(thus saith the Internets and phone calls to
Mexico aren&t cheap)
“Maybe
an
Asteroid
'()*+"$Kill
the
Dinosaurs”,
Jeffrey
Kluger,
TIME,
27
April,
2009
Nemesis,
Brendan
Krueger
5
Raup
&
Sepkoski
(1984)
Various
periodic
analysis
techniques
reveal
spikes
in
the
extinction
record
around
every
30
Myr
 Best
fit
period
evidenced
a
cycle
of
26Myr
 Period‐folding
the
data
displays
a
relatively
sharp
peak

 Discrete
extinction
events
Nemesis,
Brendan
Krueger
6
Raup
&
Sepkoski
(1984)
Various
periodic
analysis
techniques
reveal
spikes
in
the
extinction
record
around
every
30
Myr
 Best
fit
period
evidenced
a
cycle
of
26Myr
 Period‐folding
the
data
displays
a
relatively
sharp
peak

 Discrete
extinction
events
Nemesis,
Brendan
Krueger
7
Raup
&
Sepkoski
(1984)



Two
events
known
to
match
impact
events
(K‐T
Event
and
Late
Eocene
extinction)
Length
of
cycle
suggests
extraterrestrial
source
Uncertainty
in
geologic
time
Nemesis,
Brendan
Krueger
8
Whitmire
&
Jackson
(1984);
Davis,
Hut,
Muller
(1984)

Propose
a
low‐mass
solar
companion
 Late
K
dwarf
down
to
brown
dwarf/planet
limit
(magnitude
7‐12)
or
black
hole
 Highly
eccentric
 Widely
separated

At
perihelion
the
companion
passes
through
the
dense
inner
Oort
cloud
and
scatters
asteroids
towards
Earth
 Several
dozen
(within
an
order
of
magnitude)
impacts
on
Earth
over
1‐2
Myr)
Nemesis,
Brendan
Krueger
9
Wikipedia



Spherical
shell
of
comets

10,000
AU
–
100,000
AU

Hills
Cloud
(aka
Inner
Oort
Cloud):
100
AU
–
3,000
AU
Kuiper
Belt:
30
AU
–
55
AU
Likely
ejected
from
inner
Solar
System
by
giant
planets
Surrounds
disc
clouds

Nemesis,
Brendan
Krueger
10
Whitmire
&
Jackson
(1984);
Davis,
Hut,
Muller
(1984)
“If
and
when
the
companion
is
found,
we
suggest
it
be
named
Nemesis,
after
the
Greek
goddess
who
relentlessly
persecutes
the
excessively
rich,
proud
and
powerful.
We
worry
that
if
the
companion
is
not
found,
this
paper
will
be
our
nemesis.”
 Davis,
Hut,
Muller
(1984)
Nemesis,
Brendan
Krueger
11
Proposed
orbit
Current
location
Stability
Nemesis,
Brendan
Krueger
12
Whitmire
&
Jackson
(1984);
Davis,
Hut,
Muller
(1984)
Period
of
26
Myr
(roughly
10
cycles
appear
in
the
geologic
record)
 Semimajor
axis
around
90,000
AU
(1.4
light
years)
 Eccentricity
greater
than
0.7

 Perihelion
at
several
thousand
AU
(Inner
Oort
Cloud)

Prior
to
400
Myr
ago
 May
have
been
more
closely
bound
and
less
eccentric
 Interactions
with
other
galactic
bodies
may
have
changed
the
orbit
Nemesis,
Brendan
Krueger
13
Whitmire
&
Jackson
(1984);
Davis,
Hut,
Muller
(1984)


Last
recorded
extinction
event:
~11
Myr
ago
Near
aphelion;
~2.4
light
years
away:
outer
edge
of
Oort
cloud
 Potentially
in
the
direction
of
Hydra
constellation
Next
perihelion
passage
of
Nemesis:
~15,000,000
AD
 “That’s
the
take‐home
message
of
the
presentation:
Start
running
around
screaming
because
we’re
all
going
to
die.”

▪ Josh
Schlieder
Nemesis,
Brendan
Krueger
14
Nature,
vol.
311
(October
18,
1984);
muller.lbl.gov

Very
wide
separation
may
not
be
stable
 Galactic
tidal
forces
 Stars
 Giant
molecular
clouds
(GMCs)

Statistical
arguments
suggest
the
orbit
should
be
unstable
 Bailey’s
“Nemesis
for
Nemesis?”
editorial

Minimum
mass
of
10MJ
(Hills)
Nemesis,
Brendan
Krueger
15
Nature,
vol.
311
(October
18,
1984);
muller.lbl.gov

Monte
Carlo
analysis
by
Hut
 Most
stable
when
aligned
with
galactic
plane
▪ Likely
unstable
for
(
>
30o
▪ Plane
of
solar
system:
(
=
60o
 Variation
in
perihelion
▪ Geologic
record
vs.
theory
 Expected
to
survive
for
another
~1
Gyr

May
have
started
more
closely
bound
 Interaction
~400
Myr
ago
increased
eccentricity
Nemesis,
Brendan
Krueger
16
Why
we
haven’t
seen
it
Pan‐STARRS
LSST
Nemesis,
Brendan
Krueger
17
various
sources

Estimated
magnitude
is
between
7
and
12
 Nearly
all
such
objects
catalogued
 Very
few
studied
for
proper
motion
or
distance
 “The
known
stars
nearest
to
the
Sun
have
been
discovered
either
because
of
their
high
apparent
brightness,
their
large
proper
motion,
or
their
association
with
other
nearby
stars.
Unfortunately,
our
proposed
companion
star
is
likely
to
have
none
of
these
characteristics.”
▪ Davis,
Hut,
Muller
(1984)

Location
unknown
 Based
on
analysis
of
long‐period
comets:
towards
Hydra

Roughly
3,000
primary
candidates
identified
for
study
Nemesis,
Brendan
Krueger
18
Wikipedia
Panoramic
Survey
Telescope
And
Rapid
Response
System
 Survey
roughly
75%
of
the
sky
to
magnitude
24
 Telescopes

 Four
1.8m
telescopes
in
Hawaii
 PS1:
December
6th,
2008
 Final
three
by
2012

Will
identify
stars
with
large
parallax
but
small
proper
motion
 Mark
for
later
radial
velocity
measurements
 Nemesis
is
believed
to
fall
into
this
category
Nemesis,
Brendan
Krueger
19
Wikipedia,
LSST.org
Large
Synoptic
Survey
Telescope
8.4m
ground‐based
telescope,
out
to
magnitude
of
24‐27
 Construction
should
begin
2010


 First
light
expected
2014

200,000
images
(1.28
petabytes)
per
year
 Will
require
advanced
data
mining
to
analyze

Could
be
capable
of
identifying
Nemesis
Nemesis,
Brendan
Krueger
20
Oscillations
through
galactic
plane
Oscillation
phase
Nemesis,
Brendan
Krueger
21
various
sources
The
Solar
System
oscillates
vertically
through
the
Milky
Way
 Stars
and
GMCs
are
denser
near
the
center
of
the
galactic
plane
 Rampino
&
Stothers
quote
periodicities
as:

 Extinctions:
30
±
1
Myr
 Galactic
oscillations:
33
±
3
Myr
Nemesis,
Brendan
Krueger
22
various
sources

Current
data
estimating
the
position
and
timing
of
the
galactic
oscillation
vs.
extinction
record
 Extinction
events
peak
when
the
Earth
is
farthest
from
galactic
plane
 Unknown
how
to
resolve
this
Nemesis,
Brendan
Krueger
23
Summary
References
Questions
Nemesis,
Brendan
Krueger
24


Apparent
26
Myr
periodicity
in
extinction
Distant
solar
companion
proposed
 Likely
a
brown
dwarf
in
a
wide,
eccentric
orbit
 Scatters
Oort
Cloud
objects
into
inner
Solar
system

Various
properties
put
it
in
an
under‐studied
class
 Pan‐STARRS
&
LSST
should
be
able
to
find
it

Stability
of
orbit
is
in
question
Nemesis,
Brendan
Krueger
25













Alvarez
!"$%&#
(1980).
,-(!*-!
BCD,
1095–1108.
Bailey
(1984).
.%"/0!
EFF,
602‐603.
Bhalerao,
Vahia
(2005).
1/&&#$23"0#$,4-#
5*)(%
EE,
27‐33.
Bottke
!"$%&#
(2007).
.%"/0!
GGH,
48‐
53.
Burgasser
(2007).
267
IJD,
617‐621.
Clube,
Napier
(1984).
.%"/0!
EFF,
635‐
636.
Davis,
Hut,
Muller
(1984).
.%"/0!
ECD,
715‐717.
Hills
(1984).
.%"/0!
EFF,
636‐638.
Hut
(1984).
.%"/0!
EFF,
638‐641.
Kluger
(2009).
859:,
“Maybe
an
Asteroid
'()*+"$Kill
the
Dinosaurs.”
Muller
(2002).
;!4&#$,4-#$$2<#$,6!-#
=%6#
356.
Muller.
http://muller.lbl.gov/pages/lbl‐
nem.htm.
Accessed
07
April
2009.
Rampino,
Stothers
(1984).
.%"/0!
ECD,
709‐712.
Nemesis,
Brendan
Krueger












Raup,
Sepkoski
(1984).
=04-#$.%"&#
2-%)#$,-(#$>,2
DF,
801‐805.
Reddy
et
al.
(2008).
Asteroids,
Comets,
Meteors;
Baltimore,
Maryland,
USA.
Schwartz,
James
(1984).
.%"/0!
ECD,
712‐713.
Torbett,
Smoluchowski
(1984).
.%"/0!
EFF,
641‐642.
Whitmire,
Jackson
(1984).
.%"/0!
ECD,
713‐715.
Wikipedia:
2&?%0!@$AB64"A!3(3.
Wikipedia:
C,,8.
Large
Synoptic
Survey
Telescope.
http://www.lsst.org.
Wikipedia:
=%*D,82EE,.
Pan‐STARRS.
http://pan‐
starrs.ifa.hawaii.edu.
Wikipedia:
.!<!3(3$F3"%0G.
Wikipedia:
H40"$-&4/).
26