Black Ash Decline in Northern Minnesota: Preliminary Results Center for Research on Ecosystem Change Brian Palik1, Mike Ostry1, Rob Venette1, Ebrahim Abdella2, 1 USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station 2Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota Black ash (Fraxinus nigra) decline has been noted with increasing frequency in northern Minnesota over the last decade. For instance, over 27,000 acres were affected in Minnesota in 2004. Methods: Result 2: ● 21 stands sampled in 2006 in Carlton, Itasca, St. Louis Counties ● Mean age of healthy overstory trees in declining stands was significant lower than mean age of declining trees in the same stands and all trees in healthy stands (Figure 2). ● All black ash trees on 3-5 plots per stand measured for health status, age and size ● Plots and sites characterized for wetness status, depth to mineral soil, and insect and disease symptoms ● Individual tree ages were unrelated to health status (data not shown). Mean Tree Age (yrs) ● Most (but not all) declining stands were located in the eastern part of the study area, while most healthy stands were located in the western part of the study area. Concerns: Region-wide decline of black ash has ecologic, cultural, and economic consequences related to: ● Timber use for paneling & veneer ● Native American use for basket making ● Importance in systems that have already lost American elm 80 60 200 0 Fig. 5. Densities of black ash seedlings and saplings by stand group. Values are means +/- standard errors. S tan d G ro u p ● Declining stands had significantly greater depth to a mineral layer (thicker organic layer) than healthy stands (Figure 4). 20 Declining Healthy Stand Group Figure 1. Distribution of tree condition by stand group (healthy vs. declining). Values are means +/- standard errors. Figure 3. Mean wetness index by stand group (declining vs. healthy). 0=dry, 3=very wet. Values are means +/standard errors. 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.0 Declining 1. Quantify black ash decline and mortality in stands across northeastern Minnesota. ● Decline of overstory trees in susceptible stands may be related to tree age, since healthy trees in these stands averaged 20 years younger than declining trees in the same stands. ● Both declining and healthy stands contained seemingly healthy regeneration cohorts, but densities were higher in healthy stands. ● We observed no obvious causal insect or disease organisms on declining trees. Healthy Stand Group Ongoing Work 1.6 2. Relate decline and mortality to stand-scale factors including: Figure 4. Mean depth to a mineral layer by stand group (declining vs. healthy). Values are means +/- standards errors. 1.4 Depth (m) 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 In 2007, we sampled an additional 31 stands in Lake, St. Louis, Carlton, Aitkin, and Itasca Counties. Analysis is ongoing to determine if the preliminary findings reported here are consistent. Additionally, we are examining suscessional trends in declining stands. 0.4 Acknowledgements 0.2 3. Quantify black ash regeneration patterns in declining and healthy stands. ● Regionally, black ash stands show marked differences in frequency of declining trees. ● Decline is associated with wetter conditions and deeper depth to a mineral layer (site more prone to anoxic, saturated conditions). 0.5 ● Tree and stand age Summary Points: ● Tree age was unrelated to decline in healthy stands. 3.0 0 Objectives: ● Insects and diseases ● Site hydrology Healthy Stand Group H ealth y ● Declining stands were significantly wetter than healthy stands, at the time of sampling (Figure 3). 40 400 20 Result 3: 60 600 40 Figure 2. Mean overstory (>4 in) tree ages by stand group. Values are means +/- standard errors. Healthy Trees Declining Trees Dead Trees 800 Declining Wetness Index ● Insects or disease 80 100 D eclin in g 100 Percent of Trees ● Altered site hydrology 1000 H ealth y T rees D eclin in g Tre es 0 ● There were no obvious causal insects or diseases associated with declining stands. ● Cohort senescence ● There was little indication of decline symptoms in the regeneration cohort. 1200 ● The 21 stands differentiated into two groups: one with substantial decline (Declining) and one with minimal decline (Healthy) (Figure 1). Black ash decline in other regions has been related to spring drought. Other potential causes include: ● Black ash regeneration density was higher, although highly variable, in healthy stands (Figure 5). 120 Result 1: Causes: Result 4: Stems per Acre The Problem: 0.0 Declining Healthy Stand Group Thanks to Manfred Mielke and the Forest Service Forest Health Monitoring program for support of this work.