Climate Change and Arizona’s
Rangelands: Management
Challenges and Opportunities
Mike
Mike Crimmins
Crimmins
Climate
Climate Science
Science Extension
Extension Specialist
Specialist
Dept.
Dept. of
of Soil,
Soil, Water,
Water, &
& Env.
Env. Science
Science &
&
Arizona
Arizona Cooperative
Cooperative Extension
Extension
The
The University
University of
of Arizona
Arizona
Presentation Overview
“Everybody talks about the weather, but
nobody does anything about it.” – Mark
Twain
• Arizona Climate & Range
Management
• Important Concepts in Arizona
Climatology
• Climate Variability and Change:
Tools for Range Managers
Arizona Climate and Resource
Management
• Diverse types of rangelands (grasslands
ÅÆ forested areas)
• Quick response to changing conditions
(species specific adaptations and
strategies)
• Complex interactions between
native/invasive species, disturbances, soil
types, current and past management
actions AND climate.
Arizona Climate and Resource
Management
Climate variability is important at many different
scales
• Interannual variability, timing, duration, intensity
of precipitation events
• Spatial coverage of precipitation
• Interactions between temperature and
precipitation
• Climate-related disturbances (e.g. wildfire,
insects, drought stress)
Precipitation
(seasonality, duration,
intensity, frequency)
Solar Radiation
(photosynthetic rates,
evapotrans.)
Temperature
(growing season
length, freezing
events)
Wind
(seed dispersal,
erosion, evapotrans.)
Vegetation
Response
(growth, phenology,
recruitment
Ecological
Climatology
Landscape Features
(Soils, topography,
veg structure,
nutrient fluxes)
Relative Humidity
(evapotranspiration,
diurnal temp. range)
Arizona Climate and Resource
Management
Tools/methods/strategies to reduce climate
sensitivities
• Management options(?)
• Introduction of non-native species to
increase cover (impacts on biodiversity,
changing fire regimes)
• Other options??
Important Concepts in Arizona
Climatology
Seasonality: Arizona
Temperature and Precipitation
2.5
100
80
1.5
60
1
40
0.5
20
temp (F)
precip (in.)
2
0
0
jan
feb
mar
apr
may
jun
Precip (in.)
jul
aug
Temp (F)
sep
oct
nov
dec
Seasonal Precipitation Totals
9
8
7
Dec-Jan-Feb-Mar
July-Aug-Sept
Apr-May-Jun
Oct-Nov
Precip. (in)
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1904 1909 1914 1919 1924 1929 1934 1939 1944 1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
DJFM
AMJ
JAS
ON
Variability and Trend: Annual
Precipitation Anomaly
10
8
Precip. Anomaly (in.)
6
5-year moving average
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
Arizona statewide average annual total precipitation anomaly, long-term average: 12 inches
Variability and Trend: Annual
Average Temperature
64
63
5-year moving average
Annual Average Temperature (F)
62
61
60
59
Long-term average
58
57
56
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
Arizona statewide average annual temperature, long-term average: 59.7 F
2000
Importance of considering precipitation AND
temperature
30
60
Wet Periods: Precip>PET
25
50
20
40
15
30
10
20
1950’s drought
1980’s ENSO
Events
5
10
Annual Average Statewide Total Precipitation and Temperature for Arizona
0
0
1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
temp
ppt
Precipitation (mm)
Temperature (C)
Dry Periods: PET>Precip
Local Soil-Climate-Vegetation Interactions
Annual Average Statewide Total Precipitation and Temperature for Arizona
Climate Variability and Change:
Tools for Range Managers
• Monitoring & Diagnostic
Tools
– Range monitoring/climate
data research & product
development
– Better drought impact
assessments?
– Better monitoring of
precipitation?
– RangeView with climate
information, Southwest
Climate Outlook
Climate Variability and Change:
Tools for Range Managers
• Seasonal Forecasts
– Highest confidence with
ENSO and winter precipitation
– Monsoon season forecasts
very difficult to make (weak
teleconnections with ENSO,
U.S. snow pack, soil moisture
status)
– How could seasonal forecasts
be better utilized for range
management?
Climate Variability and Change:
Tools for Range Managers
•
Climate Change Projections
– Dealing with uncertainty
– More confidence in temperature projections than precipitation
– Changes in variability, seasonality, extreme event frequencies
From: ISPE Southwest Regional Assessment
Climate Variability and Change:
Tools for Range Managers
• Integration with land
management practices
and ecological
concepts/models
– How can climate information
be better integrated in range
management decision
making?
– What new information is
needed?
– Can existing information be
better utilized?
Closing Points
• Rangelands are especially sensitive to
climate variability and change
• Complex climate at many different scales
through time and over space
• Opportunities to develop new ways of
thinking about climate in range
management (new tools, information, and
conceptual models)
Thank You!
http://cals.arizona.edu/climate