Climate Risk & Technology U.S. Naval Academy Science and Engineering Conference
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Climate Risk & Technology U.S. Naval Academy Science and Engineering Conference Rear Admiral Dave Titley, USN (ret.), Ph.D. Director, Center for Solutions to Weather and Climate Risk Penn State University UNCLASSIFIED 8 November 2015 1 UNCLASSIFIED Bottom Line up Front… • It’s About People • It’s About Water • It’s About Change UNCLASSIFIED Facts on the Ground Global average surface temperature Arctic Sea Ice Hours/year Flooding Catastrophes UNCLASSIFIED The Global Climate 2001-2010; WMO 2013; NSIDC 2015; Nuccitelli et al. 2012; Munich Re 2015 Researchers have known for decades… UNCLASSIFIED Industry too… Exxon research and Engineering Company’s Tech Fcst CO2 Greenhouse Effect H. Shaw & P.P. McCall December 1980 UNCLASSIFIED 7 UNCLASSIFIED Security impacts of Climate Change… • The Risks are Accelerating • A Catalyst for Conflict • Cascading Consequences and complex, unknown links UNCLASSIFIED … Informed by Probabilities & Risks… Normal Distribution ‘Fat Tail’ Distribution Source: M. Mann, The Fat Tail of Climate Risk Change, Huffington Post, 11 Sep 15 a readiness & risk management issue, where “the worst matters much more than the bad” UNCLASSIFIED Four Climate Impacts on a Military Capacity Arctic Impacts to Bases Disaster Relief GeoStrategic Threats UNCLASSIFIED ✓ Readiness New Missions ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Arctic Sea Ice (1994 – 2012) 11 UNCLASSIFIED Risk of Sea Level Rise UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Drought, Flood Instability “The change in climate, forced by greenhouse gases, was one of the key events in this tragic story” UNCLASSIFIED 16 UNCLASSIFIED So What to Do? UNCLASSIFIED Areas ready for Solutions Direct Climate Impacts Indirect Climate Impacts Technica Energy Generation Sea Level Rise Storage, Transfer • Water management l Social UNCLASSIFIED • Carbon Capture Albedo Modification Monitor Confirmation bias Optimism bias Tribalism • Agriculture • Aquaculture Arctic Opportunities • Foreign Mil Assist. • USAID • Framing the message Constructive engagement U.S. Electricity Generation past… UNCLASSIFIED …present and future UNCLASSIFIED Energy sources evolve – but at what rate? UNCLASSIFIED 3.7M people within 1m of high tide Benjamin H Strauss et al 2012 Environ. Res. Lett. 7 UNCLASSIFIED What about the Netherlands? UNCLASSIFIED Additional impacts… UNCLASSIFIED Arctic Considerations + 25 UNCLASSIFIED Arctic Ice Coverage Arctic Trade Routes: Today & Tomorrow Sea Routes Northern Sea Route 2025: 6 weeks open 41’ controlling draft Crossroads Sea route distances: Distance from the Bering Strait to Rotterdam Transpolar Route 2025: 2 weeks open Deep ocean transit Northwest Passage 2025: intermittently open 33’ controlling draft Courtesy: US Navy UNCLASSIFIED Strategic High Ground – look out for swans UNCLASSIFIED Arctic Security Forces Roundtable UNCLASSIFIED Required Capacity • Ice breakers • Ice hardened USN & USCG vessels • Observations • Navigation surveys and infrastructure • Arctic domain awareness • Bases for support • Port(s) Arctic Sea Ice Forecast • Energy infrastructure • Communications JPSS Composite water depth chart created from sparse data Awareness, Presence & Infrastructure UNCLASSIFIED 29 Another Option… UNCLASSIFIED Social Issues may be harder than Technical (and more interesting!) UNCLASSIFIED My former town … past or future? UNCLASSIFIED Follow the Money… UNCLASSIFIED We Can’t do this Ourselves NATIONAL INTERNATIONAL INTERAGENCY DOD SCIENTIFIC, ACADEMIC, & ANALYTICAL Engaged nearly 450 individuals from over 125 organizations 34 UNCLASSIFIED The Future will be bright! UNCLASSIFIED Wisdom from the past “…safety and fatal hazard are not separated by any sharp boundary line, but shade gradually from one into the other… The time for taking all measures for a ship's safety is while still able to do so. Nothing is more dangerous than for a seaman to be grudging in taking precautions lest they turn out to have been unnecessary.” – FADM Chester Nimitz “…if these doubters are wrong, the evidence is clear that the consequences, while varied, will be mostly bad, some catastrophic. So why don’t we follow Reagan’s example and take out an insurance policy? “ – The Hon. George Shultz UNCLASSIFIED 37 UNCLASSIFIED 38 UNCLASSIFIED Thank You @dwtitley 39 UNCLASSIFIED What can one person do? L. L. M. A. UNCLASSIFIED Plan in the Climate world; Execute in the Weather world The Business end of Climate Change: Our Changing Weather UNCLASSIFIED Where we usually think about… UNCLASSIFIED
