Glossary
Appendices
The appendices consist of supplemental text and tables related
to Chapters 2, 4, 7, 8, and 10. Content is organized by chapter
and labeled to indicate the chapter from which it is introduced.
For example, Tables A2.1 and A2.2, are introduced in Chapter 2.
References in the appendices are listed with the citations in the
related chapter.
Appendices
331
Appendix Chapter 2
DETAILS OF THE FOREST DYNAMICS MODEL
Following assignment, the appropriate transition
AND SUBMODELS
model for type of harvesting is applied. Change
The simulation algorithm links the Forest Dynamics
Model (FDM) submodels together and produces
predictions of future forest inventories, given a
beginning inventory and assumptions about future
land use and climate. In preparation for the
simulation, the beginning inventory is screened
for major forest-type groups that include less
than 2 percent of the total plots established
by the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA)
Program of the U.S. Forest Service. Any such
groups are considered too sparsely populated
to model future forest type transitions directly,
so a different method (described later in this
section) is applied to those groups. The FIA
plots in each remaining forest-type group form
the bucket of suitable donor plots for that foresttype group. Plots are further subdivided by the
partitioning submodel, which assigns each plot
to a subgroup based upon the type of harvesting
determined by another random draw from a
uniform distribution applied to the correct
group transition matrix (unharvested, partially
harvested, clearcut). A plot designated as
clearcut has its age reset to 2.5 years for 2015,
and the other plots retain their plot age as
of 2015. Based on the assumptions of future
climate for each scenario, the plot location, and
the forecast of plot age, each plot is assigned a
climate profile for temperature, precipitation,
and aridity. The predicted major forest-type
group, harvesting type, forecasted age, and
climate (along with the inventoried slope,
aspect, and ownership) are then used to find
the corresponding “bucket” of plots from which
the partitioning submodel can randomly draw
a replacement plot to represent that location’s
forest conditions for 2015.
(none, partial, or full) that occurred on the plot
The FDM submodels operate stochastically.
in the previous inventory cycle.
Many modeled events in the transition, harvesting,
Assuming that the beginning inventory of plots
is a snapshot of forest conditions for 2010, the
2010-2015 simulation continues applying the
harvest submodel to estimate the probability of
each management level (unharvested, partially
harvested, clearcut) for each plot in the screened
2010 inventory. A random draw from a uniform
distribution assigns plots to the various management
categories based on the probabilities programmed
into the harvesting submodel.
332
in the group assigned to each plot in 2015 is
partitioning, and imputation submodels (for
example, whether or not a plot is harvested or shifts
to a different forest type) draw a random number
for the purposes of selecting a specific outcome
from among all possible outcomes represented in
a probability matrix (in effect, a computerized roll
of the dice determines the outcome for numerous
events modeled at each time step). Because of
the random element in choosing outcomes at
each time step, repeated projections based on
the same scenario will differ in their outcomes.
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
Therefore, each scenario was repeated 26 times
Plots on Federal land retain their 2010 expansion
to produce a range of possible outcomes and to
factors because Federal forest land area is
capture variations among simulations (limits of
assumed to be unchanged over the forecast period.
computing time restricted the number of repeated
simulations). Wood volumes were summed for
each of the 26 estimates for each time step, and
an index that reflects the difference from the
central tendency of growing-stock volume for
each time step was calculated for each of the 26
inventory projections and summed over all time
steps. For each scenario, the single inventory
projection with the lowest summed index (the
single inventory projection that is closest to
the central tendency of growing-stock volume
projected for all 26 runs of a single scenario)
is the outcome summarized in subsequent
analyses. The representative predicted inventory
selected for each scenario has the same number
of forested plots as the 2010 inventory.
Harvesting removals, land-use removals
(or additions), and growth and mortality can
be calculated for each plot to arrive at a full
bookkeeping of projected change in growing-stock
volume on timberland. Harvesting removals
were obtained by applying the removal intensities
from the harvest submodel to the beginning
inventory volume. Changes to volume resulting
from land-use change (e.g., conversion of
forest land to urban land) were calculated by
multiplying the per-acre volume at the start of
the period by the area of forest converted to
other uses. Volume of total removals is the sum
of harvesting removals and land-use change
removals. Note that any increase in volume
due to an increase in expansion factors is not
The land-use submodel was used to forecast
included here. The FDM does not consider
forest area. The assumed percentage of change
growth and mortality explicitly, but the net
in forest area for non-Federal land for each
sum (net growth or other net change) can be
5-year time step was applied to adjust the plot
estimated from the change in inventory. The
area expansion factors associated with each
total change in inventory between two periods
FIA plot. For example, in the first time step
is the ending inventory less the beginning
the plot area expansion factors in the 2010
inventory and is equal to the sum of harvesting
beginning inventory were adjusted (e.g., reduced
removals and changes resulting from land use,
to indicate loss of forest land) to arrive at the
growth, and mortality. Therefore, net growth
2015 expansion factors, and then were adjusted
= change in inventory + harvest removals +
again in the next time step to arrive at the 2020
land-use removals. This formulation retains
expansion factors, and so forth. Because the
land-use additions in net growth. Subtracting
land-use submodel predicts change in forest area
land-use additions from the right-hand side of
by county, every plot on non-Federal land within
the equation accounts for net growth explicitly.
a county receives the same proportional change
in forest area for a given 5-year time step.
Appendices
333
Note that total removals are divided by the time
Multiplying the change in timberland area
step of the simulation (5 years) to produce an
by this per-acre volume gives an estimate of
annual removals estimate. Each element in
total removals resulting from land-use change
this bookkeeping (beginning and ending volume,
over the 5-year time step (in these analyses
removals, and net growth) can be summed over
projected forest area decreased in all time
all plots to obtain state-level totals.
periods for all States). Dividing this estimate by
SEPARATION AND SIMULATION
OF HARVEST REMOVALS
the number of years in the time step produces
an annual estimate of the removals volume due
to land-use change. Subtracting this annual
The Northern Forest Futures Project relied on
estimate of state land-use change removals from
the removals forecasts provided by the Forest
the total annual removals in the RPA assessment
Dynamics Model for the 2010 Resources Planning
provides an estimate of annual harvest removals
Act (RPA) assessment (Wear 2011, Wear et al.
as the remainder.
2013). These forecasts did not separate harvest
removals (volume of cut trees) and land-use
removals (volume of trees removed from the
forest inventory when forest land is converted
to other uses); only state-level total removals
on an annual basis were available from the RPA
assessment. A simple “top down” procedure
was employed to split these state-level totals
into separate estimates of land use removals
and harvest removals. For a given time interval,
subtracting ending timberland area from beginning
timberland area provides an estimate of total
forest area lost (or gained) through land use
change, and a rough estimate of the sum, over
all timberland plots, of the change in plot
area expansion factors. Dividing the beginning
inventory volume by beginning timberland area
yields an approximation of per-acre beginning
Calculating change variables—The Forest
Dynamics Model (Wear et al. 2013) was applied
to calculate inventory summaries (volumes,
number of trees, forest-type groups) based
on imputed future inventories of tree species
and tree size. The removals submodel is
a component of the projection model that
estimates the probability of a tree being
harvested based on its species and diameter.
This information aids in estimating annual
harvest removals. The removals estimates were
converted to an annual basis. An additional
factor was included in the total removals
estimate—the estimate of trees that are not
harvested on forested parcels, but instead are
removed from the inventory due to conversion
of forest to other land uses.
growing-stock volume on timberland.
334
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
Calculations for determining volume changes
Calculating removals—Because two types of
between succeeding periods are shown in
removals (removals resulting from harvesting
Equations 1-3. This change in volume is made
and removals from land-use change [LUC])
up of three components: growth, mortality, and
are included in the total removals estimate,
removals. The Forest Dynamics Model does
removals can be calculated as in Equation 4.
not model mortality directly. All of the change
variables are modeled based on growing stock on
timberland, so the volume equations do so as well.
ΔVol12= Vol2 – Vol1(1)
ΔVol12 = Net growth12 – Removals(total)12 (2)
Net growth12 = ΔVol12 + Removals(total)12(3)
Where:
Vol is growing-stock volume on timberland
ΔVol is periodic change in growingstock volume
Net growth is growing-stock volume growth
less mortality
Removals(total) is combined removals due
to harvest and land-use change
subscript 1 represents variables from time
period 1
subscript 2 represents variables from time
period 2
Removals(total)12 = Removals(harvest)12 +
Removals(LUC)12(4)
where the removals component is indicated
within the parentheses.
Periodic removals resulting from land-use change
were calculated as the product of the land
area converted from forest to another land use
and the mean volume per acre as shown in
Equations 5 and 6.
Vol/acre1 = Vol1/Area1 (5)
ΔArea12 = Area1 – Area2 (6)
Where:
Vol/acre is mean growing-stock volume
per acre
Area is timber land area.
Multiplying the change in timberland area (acres)
over a given time interval by the mean volume
per acre produces an estimate of periodic
total volume removals due to land use change.
subscript 12 represents change from the
Dividing this estimate by the number of years
time period 1 to 2.
in the interval gives an annual estimate of the
volume removals due to land-use change
(Eq. 7), and harvest removals were estimated
by subtraction (Eq. 8).
Appendices
335
Removals(LUC)12 = (Vol1/Area1 * ΔArea12)/
Time12 For example, the area of forest in the elm(7)
little change over time even though emerald
Removals(harvest)12 = Removals(total)12 –
Removals(LUC)12 ash-cottonwood group is expected to show
(8)
ash borer is expected to kill all the ash trees
in many locations. Some of the impacts of
where Time is the number of years in the
infestation on ecosystem functioning may be
specified interval.
modest because associated non-ash species
Note that for forest area estimates (Eq. 6, 7),
in all cases forest land area declined at the State
level between two estimation periods, but at
smaller spatial scales (which were not evaluated),
forest land area may occasionally increase.
not prone to infestation have the potential to
offset the loss of ash trees and their associated
volume. Consequently, despite the assumption
that emerald ash borer will cause 100 percent
ash mortality, the transition from ash to other
species may progress slowly as ash is replaced
MODELING EFFECTS OF THE
by a variety of associated species. However,
EMERALD ASH BORER
the effects of infestation could lead to canopy
The effects of the emerald ash borer (Agrilus
planipennis) on the number and volume of ash
trees (Fraxinus spp.) were summarized for the
broad category of forest-type groups and at the
large scale of FIA inventory units. Our modeling
results suggest that effects will contribute to a
small decrease in the total number of trees and
saplings in many FIA inventory units from 2010
to 2060, but changes in the elm-ash-cottonwood
(Ulmus spp.–Fraxinus spp.–Populus spp.)
forest-type group will vary among FIA inventory
units. Forest species composition in forests
measured by FIA will change when ash trees are
killed by the emerald ash borer, but modeling
results suggest that effects will not cause
substantial changes in the number of plots in
gaps and facilitate an increase in native and
nonnative invasive plant species (Gandhi and
Herms 2010). Because changes were analyzed
by forest-type groups, considering geographic
differences in the composition of each foresttype group was important. For example, ash is
not a significant component of any forest-type
group in Maine FIA inventory units, but the elmash-cottonwood forest-type group in Minnesota
FIA inventory units is composed mainly of
green ash (Fraxinus pennsylvanica) and black
ash (F. nigra). It is also important to keep in
mind that this modeling may not apply to urban
areas not measured by FIA, where the extensive
distribution of planted ash trees could result in
a greater impact.
any given forest-type group.
336
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
Table A2.1—Projected population from 2010 to 2060 in North under three greenhouse gas emissions storylines
developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007, Zarnoch et al. 2010).
State
Storylinea
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
----------------------------------------- (1,000 people) -----------------------------------------------
Connecticut
District of Columbia
Delaware
Iowa
Illinois
Indiana
Massachusetts
Maryland
Maine
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
3,535
3,606
3,524
570
581
568
884
902
881
3,005
3,065
2,996
13,042
13,304
13,002
6,402
6,531
6,383
6,498
6,629
6,479
5,877
5,995
5,860
1,342
1,369
1,338
3,654
3,768
3,634
548
566
545
969
999
964
3,100
3,197
3,083
13,717
14,145
13,641
6,698
6,908
6,661
6,731
6,941
6,694
6,579
6,785
6,543
1,407
1,451
1,399
3,792
3,959
3,681
531
554
515
1,057
1,103
1,026
3,212
3,353
3,118
14,451
15,087
14,030
7,025
7,334
6,820
6,997
7,305
6,793
7,290
7,611
7,077
1,479
1,544
1,436
3,947
4,188
3,690
518
549
484
1,145
1,215
1,070
3,339
3,543
3,121
15,160
16,084
14,170
7,383
7,833
6,901
7,272
7,715
6,798
7,964
8,450
7,445
1,562
1,657
1,460
4,115
4,481
3,738
507
553
461
1,229
1,338
1,116
3,473
3,781
3,155
15,794
17,196
14,347
7,758
8,447
7,048
7,539
8,209
6,849
8,571
9,332
7,786
1,654
1,801
1,503
Change
2010 to
2060
(percent)
4,281
4,836
3,802
500
565
444
1,309
1,478
1,162
3,613
4,082
3,209
16,365
18,488
14,534
8,148
9,205
7,236
7,801
8,813
6,928
9,120
10,303
8,100
1,756
1,983
1,559
Appendices
21
34
8
-12
-3
-22
48
64
32
20
33
7
25
39
12
27
41
13
20
33
7
55
72
38
31
45
17
337
Table A2.1 continued
State
Storylinea
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
----------------------------------------- (1,000 people) -----------------------------------------------
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
338
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
10,165
10,369
10,134
5,358
5,465
5,342
5,960
6,080
5,942
1,379
1,406
1,375
8,948
9,127
8,921
19,382
19,771
19,323
11,484
11,715
11,450
12,555
12,807
12,517
10,465
10,792
10,407
5,884
6,068
5,852
6,320
6,518
6,285
1,549
1,598
1,541
9,601
9,901
9,548
19,820
20,440
19,711
11,653
12,017
11,589
12,994
13,400
12,922
10,821
11,298
10,506
6,423
6,706
6,236
6,704
6,999
6,509
1,722
1,798
1,672
10,287
10,740
9,987
20,371
21,267
19,776
11,893
12,416
11,546
13,498
14,092
13,104
11,236
11,921
10,503
6,962
7,387
6,508
7,133
7,568
6,668
1,900
2,016
1,776
10,928
11,594
10,215
20,934
22,211
19,568
12,183
12,926
11,388
14,058
14,916
13,141
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
11,688
12,725
10,617
7,483
8,147
6,798
7,597
8,271
6,901
2,078
2,263
1,888
11,484
12,503
10,432
21,448
23,352
19,484
12,491
13,599
11,347
14,640
15,940
13,300
12,173
13,753
10,811
7,988
9,024
7,094
8,091
9,141
7,186
2,256
2,548
2,003
11,969
13,522
10,630
21,929
24,774
19,475
12,811
14,473
11,378
15,236
17,213
13,531
Change
2010 to
2060
(percent)
20
33
7
49
65
33
36
50
21
64
81
46
34
48
19
13
25
1
12
24
-1
21
34
8
Table A2.1 continued
State
Storylinea
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
----------------------------------------- (1,000 people) -----------------------------------------------
Rhode Island
Vermont
Wisconsin
West Virginia
All Northern States
U.S. total
a
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
1,089
1,111
1,086
643
656
641
5,687
5,801
5,670
1,818
1,854
1,812
125,621
128,141
125,242
308,936
315,135
308,004
1,154
1,190
1,147
696
717
692
6,073
6,263
6,040
1,840
1,898
1,830
131,454
135,562
130,727
335,805
346,297
333,948
1,223
1,277
1,188
751
784
729
6,481
6,767
6,292
1,873
1,956
1,819
137,881
143,948
133,860
363,584
379,581
352,980
1,289
1,367
1,204
813
863
760
6,922
7,344
6,470
1,919
2,036
1,793
144,565
153,380
135,132
391,946
415,845
366,372
1,349
1,469
1,226
881
960
801
7,383
8,038
6,707
1,972
2,147
1,792
151,134
164,550
137,294
419,854
457,122
381,404
Change
2010 to
2060
(percent)
1,404
1,586
1,247
956
1,080
849
7,861
8,881
6,981
2,034
2,298
1,806
157,598
178,045
139,964
447,308
505,344
397,259
29
43
15
49
65
32
38
53
23
12
24
0
25
39
12
45
60
29
Storyline A1B assumes moderate greenhouse gas emissions associated with moderate population growth and large gains in income and energy
consumption but with a balanced renewable/fossil fuel portfolio; storyline A2 assumes high greenhouse gas emissions associated with high population
growth, high energy consumption, and moderate gains in income; and storyline B2 assumes low greenhouse gas emissions associated with moderate
increases in population, income, and energy consumption.
Appendices
339
Table A2.2—Projected land use from 2010 to 2060 in the North under three greenhouse gas emissions
storylines developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007, Wear 2011); note that
percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding and that the total area is 413,586,000 acres or 646,228
square miles.
Storylinea
Year
Forest
Urban
Cropland
Pasture
Range
------------------------------------------- (percent of total land area) -------------------------------------------
A1B
A2
B2
a
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
41
41
40
40
39
39
41
41
41
40
40
39
41
41
41
40
40
40
9
11
12
13
14
16
9
10
11
12
13
14
10
11
11
12
12
13
39
39
38
38
37
37
39
39
39
38
38
37
39
39
39
38
38
38
10
10
10
10
9
9
10
10
10
10
10
9
10
10
10
10
10
10
<1
<1
<1
<1
<1
<1
<1
<1
<1
<1
<1
<1
<1
<1
<1
<1
<1
<1
Storyline A1B assumes moderate greenhouse gas emissions associated with moderate population growth and large gains in income and energy
consumption, but with a balanced renewable/fossil fuel portfolio; storyline A2 assumes high greenhouse gas emissions associated with high
population growth, high energy consumption, and moderate gains in income; and storyline B2 assumes low greenhouse gas emissions associated
with moderate increases in population, income, and energy consumption.
340
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
Table A2.3—Projected forest area, 2010 to 2060, and percentage change in forest area in the North under three greenhouse gas
emissions storylines developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007, Wear 2011).
State
Storylinea
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
---------------------------------------------------(1,000 acres) ---------------------------------------------------
Connecticut
Delaware
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
New Hampshire
Change (2010
to 2060)
(percent)
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
1,724
1,724
1,724
352
352
352
4,798
4,798
4,798
4,744
4,744
4,744
1,691
1,689
1,694
339
340
340
4,703
4,722
4,712
4,654
4,678
4,671
1,657
1,653
1,676
327
328
332
4,648
4,683
4,677
4,569
4,617
4,636
1,620
1,613
1,663
315
315
326
4,597
4,651
4,645
4,475
4,554
4,596
1,580
1,567
1,644
301
301
318
4,539
4,614
4,607
4,364
4,478
4,537
1,537
1,512
1,626
287
285
311
4,472
4,570
4,582
4,235
4,388
4,493
-11
-12
-6
-18
-19
-12
-7
-5
-5
-11
-7
-5
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
3,033
3,033
3,033
17,657
17,657
17,657
2,493
2,493
2,493
3,019
3,019
3,019
19,821
19,821
19,821
16,990
16,990
16,990
15,397
15,397
15,397
4,803
4,803
4,803
3,012
3,018
3,017
17,598
17,606
17,607
2,314
2,328
2,330
2,941
2,939
2,949
19,624
19,655
19,655
16,872
16,888
16,887
15,262
15,290
15,285
4,727
4,736
4,736
2,993
3,005
3,009
17,541
17,558
17,580
2,142
2,167
2,216
2,861
2,858
2,904
19,431
19,491
19,559
16,760
16,793
16,822
15,132
15,186
15,219
4,654
4,671
4,691
2,971
2,991
3,000
17,477
17,507
17,554
1,977
2,019
2,119
2,779
2,774
2,870
19,219
19,317
19,466
16,644
16,697
16,761
14,987
15,075
15,147
4,577
4,604
4,649
2,945
2,974
2,986
17,404
17,444
17,515
1,826
1,883
2,022
2,700
2,687
2,831
18,977
19,110
19,337
16,518
16,591
16,687
14,819
14,941
15,053
4,493
4,529
4,599
2,915
2,953
2,977
17,319
17,369
17,481
1,680
1,746
1,952
2,627
2,597
2,796
18,701
18,856
19,225
16,389
16,487
16,626
14,625
14,774
14,976
4,401
4,441
4,557
-4
-3
-2
-2
-2
-1
-33
-30
-22
-13
-14
-7
-6
-5
-3
-4
-3
-2
-5
-4
-3
-8
-8
-5
Appendices
341
Table A2.3 continued
State
Storylinea
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Change (2010
to 2060)
---------------------------------------------------(1,000 acres) ---------------------------------------------------
New Jersey
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
West Virginia
Wisconsin
All Northern States
a
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
2,002
2,002
2,002
18,951
18,951
18,951
8,044
8,044
8,044
16,652
16,652
16,652
348
348
348
4,588
4,588
4,588
11,974
11,974
11,974
16,697
16,697
16,697
174,090
174,090
174,090
1,859
1,849
1,869
18,804
18,824
18,826
7,964
7,975
7,978
16,368
16,418
16,417
323
323
325
4,538
4,551
4,547
11,802
11,859
11,840
16,562
16,589
16,584
171,958
172,276
172,270
1,722
1,706
1,778
18,681
18,719
18,770
7,887
7,907
7,943
16,092
16,191
16,292
306
305
315
4,492
4,518
4,525
11,642
11,758
11,784
16,432
16,488
16,522
169,967
170,601
171,250
1,597
1,572
1,717
18,547
18,608
18,717
7,802
7,835
7,911
15,787
15,949
16,173
290
288
309
4,442
4,484
4,500
11,463
11,656
11,713
16,291
16,381
16,456
167,857
168,891
170,291
1,483
1,441
1,658
18,394
18,476
18,647
7,703
7,746
7,869
15,439
15,661
16,002
273
269
302
4,385
4,446
4,466
11,249
11,529
11,601
16,126
16,253
16,366
165,520
166,938
169,047
1,379
1,309
1,611
18,219
18,312
18,591
7,591
7,633
7,835
15,044
15,310
15,864
257
248
296
4,322
4,400
4,439
10,992
11,370
11,524
15,936
16,096
16,291
162,925
164,656
168,053
(percent)
-31
-35
-20
-4
-3
-2
-6
-5
-3
-10
-8
-5
-26
-29
-15
-6
-4
-3
-8
-5
-4
-5
-4
-2
-6
-5
-3
Storyline A1B assumes moderate greenhouse gas emissions associated with moderate population growth and large gains in income and energy consumption
but with a balanced renewable/fossil fuel portfolio; storyline A2 assumes high greenhouse gas emissions associated with high population growth, high
energy consumption, and moderate gains in income; and storyline B2 assumes low greenhouse gas emissions associated with moderate increases in
population, income, and energy consumption.
342
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
Table A2.4—Underlying large-scale assumptions about future biomass consumption for bioenergy in the multinational macro-region Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD 90) (Ince et al. 2011,
USDA FS 2012b) under three greenhouse gas emissions storylines developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC 2007).
Source
Storylinea
Year
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
-------------------------------------------------(1,000,000 tons)-------------------------------------------------
Roundwood
fuelwood (forests)
Energy plantations
Cropland crops
and residues
a
A1B
93.1
105.3
240.4
405.3
628.9
1,022.5
1,297.1
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
93.1
93.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
257.4
98.8
98.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
210.7
154.4
133.0
82.8
62.4
19.6
209.8
356.8
67.1
198.2
193.7
91.9
209.4
544.2
45.7
353.4
338.4
159.2
207.5
748.2
145.4
625.0
467.6
215.2
205.7
746.1
263.8
784.2
458.9
289.0
203.0
A2
B2
257.4
257.4
216.8
216.7
220.6
221.0
224.6
225.1
229.2
228.3
233.9
231.4
239.5
234.7
Storyline A1B assumes moderate greenhouse gas emissions associated with moderate population growth and large gains in income and energy
consumption but with a balanced renewable/fossil fuel portfolio; storyline A2 assumes high greenhouse gas emissions associated with high
population growth, high energy consumption, and moderate gains in income; and storyline B2 assumes low greenhouse gas emissions associated
with moderate increases in population, income, and energy consumption..
Appendices
343
Table A2.5—Projected biomass production for bioenergy from roundwood and fuelwood, 2010 to 2060,
under three greenhouse gas emissions storylines developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC 2007).
Source
Storylinea
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
--------------------------------------(billion cubic feet)--------------------------------------
(Mill) fuel residue
(Recovered) harvest
residue
Hardwood pulpwood
Mill (fiber) residue
Roundwood fuelwood
harvesting
Softwood pulpwood
a
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
2.0
2.4
2.4
0.0
2.6
2.3
2.4
3.6
2.8
2.2
2.4
5.9
3.5
2.3
2.3
8.9
3.4
2.1
2.4
12.5
3.4
1.2
2.6
16.3
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
A1B
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
1.8
2.8
1.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.4
0.0
2.2
4.1
3.7
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
0.2
3.3
5.8
4.2
4.1
0.4
0.0
1.3
2.1
0.6
4.8
7.7
4.7
9.5
2.6
0.0
2.2
2.1
1.7
7.0
10.0
5.6
14.3
4.5
0.0
3.3
1.2
2.4
9.0
A2
B2
A1B
A2
B2
1.7
1.7
0.2
0.1
0.0
1.9
1.7
1.1
0.1
0.0
2.5
2.0
3.4
2.3
0.0
3.1
2.5
6.9
5.0
0.1
4.2
2.9
11.2
8.5
0.2
5.7
3.4
16.5
15.1
0.6
Storyline A1B assumes moderate greenhouse gas emissions associated with moderate population growth and large gains in income and
energy consumption but with a balanced renewable/fossil fuel portfolio; storyline A2 assumes high greenhouse gas emissions associated with
high population growth, high energy consumption, and moderate gains in income; and storyline B2 assumes low greenhouse gas emissions
associated with moderate increases in population, income, and energy consumption.
Please refer to the Literature Cited section at the end of Chapter 2 for the references.
344
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
Appendix Chapter 4
Table A4.1—Projected forest land area by forest-type group for the North, 2010 to 2060, under three
greenhouse gas emissions storylines developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007).
Year
Forest-type group
and storylinea
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
----------------------------------------------------------(1,000 acres)----------------------------------------------------------------
Aspen-birch
A1B
A2
B2
Elm-ash-cottonwood
A1B
A2
B2
Maple-beech-birch
A1B
A2
B2
Oak-hickory
A1B
A2
B2
Other
A1B
A2
B2
Spruce-fir
A1B
A2
B2
White-red-jack pine
A1B
A2
B2
a
17,255
17,255
17,255
15,964
16,012
16,129
15,324
15,365
15,339
15,213
15,280
15,288
15,087
15,182
15,220
14,451
14,203
14,687
12,147
12,147
12,147
10,976
10,923
10,740
10,222
10,503
10,541
10,068
10,363
10,467
9,903
10,205
10,375
10,213
9,966
10,346
44,982
44,982
44,982
46,104
46,191
46,703
46,668
46,805
47,339
46,216
46,467
47,147
45,704
46,063
46,882
46,441
46,635
47,623
63,184
63,184
63,184
62,851
63,125
62,782
62,459
62,276
62,215
61,455
61,463
61,758
60,342
60,538
61,167
57,730
59,329
60,197
12,746
12,746
12,746
12,209
12,347
12,271
12,012
12,128
12,020
11,775
11,917
11,909
11,527
11,695
11,778
11,307
11,556
12,361
15,279
15,279
15,279
15,037
15,039
14,839
14,342
14,682
14,763
14,276
14,632
14,732
14,199
14,573
14,688
13,659
13,836
13,676
8,497
8,497
8,497
8,817
8,639
8,806
8,940
8,843
9,033
8,855
8,769
8,991
8,758
8,682
8,937
9,123
9,131
9,163
Storyline A1B assumes moderate greenhouse gas emissions associated with moderate population growth and large gains in income and
energy consumption but with a balanced renewable/fossil fuel portfolio; storyline A2 assumes high greenhouse gas emissions associated with
high population growth, high energy consumption, and moderate gains in income; and storyline B2 assumes low greenhouse gas emissions
associated with moderate increases in population, income, and energy consumption.
Appendices
345
Table A4.2—Projected volume of live trees on forest land in the North, 2010 to 2060, for seven future scenarios based on
greenhouse gas emissions storylines developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007).
State
Scenario
a
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
-------------------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)------------------------------------------------------
Connecticut
Delaware
Illinois
Indiana
346
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
4,127
4,127
4,127
4,127
4,127
4,127
4,127
862
862
862
862
862
862
862
8,652
8,652
8,652
8,652
8,652
8,652
8,652
9,785
9,785
9,785
9,785
9,785
9,785
9,785
4,232
4,354
4,080
4,222
4,225
4,247
4,243
867
876
872
888
835
928
858
9,238
8,877
9,083
9,337
8,694
8,804
9,147
10,527
10,254
10,253
9,564
10,383
10,329
10,136
4,669
4,357
4,024
4,128
4,369
4,308
4,022
897
841
889
765
857
906
841
8,830
8,871
8,554
8,473
8,874
8,966
8,961
10,468
10,231
10,597
10,144
10,139
10,506
10,793
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
4,564
4,255
3,990
4,030
4,271
4,205
3,988
860
808
869
734
821
869
823
8,735
8,810
8,491
8,415
8,775
8,896
8,896
10,255
10,095
10,508
10,010
9,926
10,369
10,703
4,450
4,134
3,944
3,913
4,165
4,083
3,942
822
771
848
700
783
828
803
8,627
8,740
8,418
8,347
8,663
8,817
8,821
10,005
9,931
10,377
9,849
9,676
10,204
10,571
4,065
3,767
4,101
3,585
3,943
3,914
3,850
738
766
806
744
675
712
825
8,308
8,656
9,087
8,311
7,680
7,829
8,262
10,117
10,585
10,228
9,833
8,799
9,499
9,840
Change
2010 to
2060
(percent)
-2
-9
-1
-13
-4
-5
-7
-14
-11
-7
-14
-22
-17
-4
-4
0
5
-4
-11
-10
-5
3
8
5
0
-10
-3
1
Table A4.2 continued
State
Scenario
a
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
-------------------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)------------------------------------------------------
Iowa
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
4,256
4,256
4,256
4,256
4,256
4,256
4,256
25,474
25,474
25,474
25,474
25,474
25,474
25,474
6,469
6,469
6,469
6,469
6,469
6,469
6,469
7,754
7,754
7,754
7,754
7,754
7,754
7,754
5,019
4,800
4,922
4,893
4,708
4,728
4,724
26,738
26,551
26,804
26,632
25,864
26,168
26,627
6,275
6,248
6,221
6,466
6,044
6,070
6,404
7,863
7,637
7,577
7,651
7,717
7,700
7,880
5,027
4,921
5,085
5,175
4,679
4,910
5,003
27,130
27,544
27,084
26,933
24,703
25,782
26,525
5,883
5,802
5,704
6,050
5,399
5,728
5,751
7,359
7,500
7,490
7,521
7,523
7,494
7,749
4,992
4,894
5,070
5,088
4,646
4,883
4,986
27,013
27,446
27,035
26,367
24,597
25,686
26,478
5,377
5,373
5,425
5,606
4,952
5,306
5,486
7,175
7,302
7,418
7,021
7,327
7,291
7,675
4,950
4,862
5,048
5,022
4,607
4,851
4,962
26,877
27,329
26,965
26,070
24,475
25,571
26,409
4,926
4,990
5,158
5,216
4,563
4,927
5,227
6,991
7,092
7,331
6,822
7,135
7,077
7,588
Change
2010 to
2060
(percent)
4,780
5,095
5,185
4,605
3,747
4,059
4,569
26,046
27,043
27,191
25,980
14,939
18,810
22,367
4,708
4,576
4,913
4,531
3,735
4,128
4,617
6,630
6,765
7,021
6,333
6,696
6,422
7,398
Appendices
12
20
22
8
-12
-5
7
2
6
7
2
-41
-26
-12
-27
-29
-24
-30
-42
-36
-29
-14
-13
-9
-18
-14
-17
-5
347
Table A4.2 continued
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
-------------------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)------------------------------------------------------
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
New
Hampshire
348
Change
2010 to
2060
(percent)
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
31,553
31,553
31,553
31,553
31,553
31,553
31,553
18,099
18,099
18,099
18,099
18,099
18,099
18,099
20,143
20,143
20,143
20,143
20,143
20,143
20,143
10,670
32,857
32,844
32,967
31,510
32,515
33,008
32,791
19,232
19,569
19,292
19,767
19,218
19,520
19,340
21,930
21,625
21,075
21,489
21,156
21,707
21,402
11,298
33,405
33,505
34,196
32,143
32,146
32,650
33,930
20,498
21,021
20,487
20,874
18,906
20,591
20,361
22,529
22,161
22,396
22,396
21,718
21,859
22,430
11,247
33,024
33,194
34,026
31,847
31,787
32,344
33,763
20,314
20,843
20,387
19,812
18,730
20,428
20,261
22,309
21,996
22,290
21,972
21,510
21,700
22,325
11,045
32,590
32,824
33,791
31,494
31,379
31,978
33,533
20,116
20,649
20,268
18,847
18,540
20,253
20,142
22,054
21,798
22,152
21,609
21,269
21,507
22,187
10,826
33,934
34,290
35,574
32,742
25,620
29,003
32,368
22,013
22,403
20,968
20,901
12,807
18,504
17,933
23,298
23,451
24,064
23,341
19,779
21,649
22,731
10,618
8
9
13
4
-19
-8
3
22
24
16
15
-29
2
-1
16
16
19
16
-2
7
13
0
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
10,670
10,670
10,670
10,670
10,670
10,670
11,378
11,232
11,033
10,995
11,203
10,779
11,367
11,418
11,114
10,930
10,944
11,256
11,183
11,309
10,735
10,725
10,768
11,145
10,977
11,181
10,535
10,505
10,571
11,014
10,697
11,069
10,289
8,300
9,409
10,002
0
4
-4
-22
-12
-6
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
Table A4.2 continued
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
-------------------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)------------------------------------------------------
New Jersey
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
3,919
3,919
3,919
3,919
3,919
3,919
3,919
39,609
39,609
39,609
39,609
39,609
39,609
39,609
15,992
15,992
15,992
15,992
15,992
15,992
15,992
35,386
35,386
35,386
35,386
35,386
35,386
35,386
3,835
3,497
3,878
3,559
3,690
3,726
3,738
41,756
41,519
41,229
41,448
40,856
40,999
41,208
17,576
17,587
17,102
15,765
17,007
16,604
16,691
35,318
34,921
35,349
35,221
35,794
35,806
35,472
3,557
3,439
3,842
3,215
3,426
3,668
3,577
43,115
42,696
43,210
40,560
42,585
42,463
43,145
17,884
17,504
18,021
16,719
16,884
17,422
17,876
35,040
35,469
36,492
35,125
34,662
35,770
35,824
3,308
3,176
3,707
2,957
3,171
3,399
3,455
42,796
42,434
43,084
40,316
42,276
42,206
43,021
17,682
17,345
17,942
16,560
16,696
17,254
17,802
34,364
34,922
36,215
34,602
34,006
35,244
35,562
3,078
2,917
3,579
2,707
2,937
3,134
3,339
42,433
42,120
42,914
40,023
41,924
41,899
42,854
17,449
17,145
17,837
16,365
16,478
17,048
17,701
33,594
34,269
35,821
33,978
33,260
34,615
35,186
Change
2010 to
2060
(percent)
2,768
2,790
3,253
2,593
2,634
2,567
3,155
42,506
42,281
43,418
40,687
40,247
41,474
42,156
18,780
17,944
18,526
16,944
13,948
16,027
17,172
34,093
34,847
35,978
34,758
27,624
31,090
33,514
Appendices
-29
-29
-17
-34
-33
-35
-19
7
7
10
3
2
5
6
17
12
16
6
-13
0
7
-4
-2
2
-2
-22
-12
-5
349
Table A4.2 continued
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
-------------------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)------------------------------------------------------
Rhode Island
Vermont
West Virginia
Wisconsin
350
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
786
786
786
786
786
786
786
10,174
10,174
10,174
10,174
10,174
10,174
10,174
27,102
27,102
27,102
27,102
27,102
27,102
27,102
23,242
23,242
23,242
23,242
23,242
23,242
23,242
707
778
675
735
748
734
739
10,540
10,266
10,705
10,404
10,544
10,234
10,526
26,327
26,686
26,092
26,686
26,534
26,808
26,032
25,818
25,810
25,673
25,608
25,263
25,695
25,280
742
695
710
725
812
678
701
10,558
10,727
10,786
9,908
10,473
10,817
10,688
26,897
26,435
26,286
27,426
25,579
26,112
26,338
27,208
27,293
27,102
25,402
25,057
26,403
26,670
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
702
658
696
672
769
641
688
10,438
10,644
10,727
9,834
10,352
10,737
10,629
26,487
26,209
26,133
27,199
25,198
25,892
26,181
26,973
27,114
26,995
25,236
24,835
26,226
26,562
663
616
680
629
726
600
672
10,303
10,548
10,645
9,750
10,217
10,646
10,547
25,995
25,932
25,892
26,920
24,740
25,620
25,934
26,699
26,899
26,847
25,038
24,577
26,014
26,413
581
573
658
560
613
623
633
10,346
10,770
10,366
9,830
8,288
9,296
10,561
25,546
26,544
26,299
27,332
20,069
23,223
24,856
28,378
28,855
28,895
27,074
17,722
22,068
24,985
Change
2010 to
2060
(percent)
-26
-27
-16
-29
-22
-21
-19
2
6
2
-3
-19
-9
4
-6
-2
-3
1
-26
-14
-8
22
24
24
16
-24
-5
8
Table A4.2 continued
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
-------------------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)------------------------------------------------------
All Northern
States
a
Change
2010 to
2060
(percent)
A1B-C
304,055
317,951
322,940
318,412
313,447
318,255
5
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
304,055
304,055
304,055
304,055
304,055
304,055
316,077
315,081
312,877
312,790
315,018
314,018
322,381
324,374
314,795
309,721
317,979
322,441
318,700
322,317
309,013
305,370
314,345
320,428
314,544
319,695
303,833
300,619
310,242
317,845
322,699
327,599
310,974
247,866
280,307
301,793
6
8
2
-18
-8
-1
There are seven scenarios, each representing a global greenhouse storyline (IPCC 2007) paired with a harvest regime. Storyline A1B assumes moderate greenhouse
gas emissions, moderate gains in population, and large gains in income and energy consumption (but with a balanced renewable/fossil fuel portfolio); A2 assumes
high greenhouse gas emissions, large gains in population and energy consumption, and moderate gains in income; and B2 assumes low greenhouse gas emissions with
moderate gains in population, income, and energy consumption. Scenario projections assume harvest will continue at recently observed levels (labeled –C) or increase
to reflect increased harvest for bioenergy production (labeled –BIO). Scenario A2-EAB is a variation of scenario A2-C that also assumes all ash species will gradually
succumb to an expanding zone of infestation by the nonnative emerald ash borer.
Appendices
351
Table A4.3—Projected volume of total annual removals in the North, 2010 to 2060, for seven future scenarios
based on greenhouse gas emissions storylines developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC 2007).
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
--------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)---------------------------------------------
Connecticut
Delaware
Illinois
Indiana
352
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
54
54
54
54
54
54
54
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
58
58
58
58
58
58
58
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
22
24
17
31
21
21
20
6
10
9
8
10
7
7
49
54
54
51
59
61
56
115
113
97
94
122
111
125
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
18
17
13
17
29
19
22
7
7
8
9
8
9
9
39
38
36
44
60
47
59
106
115
90
89
168
155
97
16
18
5
11
24
25
12
12
7
7
6
15
10
10
64
30
71
33
97
72
55
142
89
104
95
282
194
164
18
20
6
16
24
18
12
7
9
10
7
21
13
10
48
57
53
52
132
96
83
143
111
126
93
371
259
217
15
18
8
15
24
23
15
9
11
7
10
19
18
13
50
43
39
55
162
142
76
115
132
110
133
423
331
220
Table A4.3 continued
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
--------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)---------------------------------------------
Iowa
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
46
46
46
46
46
46
46
562
562
562
562
562
562
562
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
39
47
48
39
49
51
49
549
524
586
541
630
631
574
103
85
81
87
107
96
104
34
37
40
34
53
46
41
50
64
74
50
105
63
56
558
549
575
541
890
709
645
74
80
65
70
126
90
75
32
32
22
36
40
42
27
69
40
56
53
134
78
98
556
567
565
519
1,106
830
718
76
81
69
72
113
113
72
29
23
17
24
34
29
24
47
39
86
35
144
101
87
560
503
566
515
1,172
1,020
836
67
81
81
84
144
118
105
18
20
14
22
36
30
20
48
46
69
42
169
120
98
575
581
500
564
1,157
1,079
880
79
68
60
80
125
120
104
21
21
16
25
36
31
19
Appendices
353
Table A4.3 continued
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
--------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)---------------------------------------------
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
New Hampshire
354
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
339
339
339
339
339
339
339
297
297
297
297
297
297
297
175
175
175
175
175
175
175
92
92
92
92
92
92
92
357
365
354
320
399
363
389
249
241
230
257
304
249
267
142
156
153
157
177
195
147
113
90
111
109
118
115
117
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
344
358
374
328
650
490
427
288
303
250
294
435
296
322
171
143
169
179
250
195
173
103
99
90
108
208
170
118
408
372
370
371
845
615
508
291
275
298
295
605
421
373
179
141
170
183
349
259
224
121
108
134
113
284
172
160
400
390
383
353
1,114
803
668
289
318
293
274
680
512
456
171
160
176
135
466
333
270
144
130
127
104
366
259
220
408
437
418
407
1,188
939
725
321
338
293
348
622
542
470
170
172
190
178
623
417
312
110
125
126
132
427
308
226
Table A4.3 continued
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
--------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)---------------------------------------------
New Jersey
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
189
189
189
189
189
189
189
415
415
415
415
415
415
415
35
52
44
47
49
54
43
172
170
175
161
200
173
161
251
213
212
219
284
253
220
388
361
341
387
395
397
374
61
44
32
46
52
47
38
181
192
169
206
303
248
194
204
223
229
186
390
319
244
386
407
376
359
577
421
363
50
41
31
38
65
63
47
234
180
188
188
489
333
261
218
244
198
212
514
375
330
398
389
378
404
798
587
503
51
46
42
48
91
82
58
219
227
197
210
601
400
363
227
244
243
230
656
472
376
454
402
376
454
1,132
741
696
40
39
33
42
91
74
47
263
234
248
234
767
506
388
252
253
204
219
734
570
384
465
425
355
412
1,308
993
748
Appendices
355
Table A4.3 continued
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
--------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)---------------------------------------------
Rhode Island
Vermont
West Virginia
Wisconsin
356
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
113
113
113
113
113
113
113
322
322
322
322
322
322
322
327
327
327
327
327
327
327
6
5
4
6
7
6
6
111
96
109
86
109
102
89
330
296
319
355
382
346
356
394
392
408
383
436
456
443
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
4
5
3
5
9
6
2
123
99
89
104
164
144
96
277
280
312
338
518
443
324
421
417
396
380
666
537
478
6
5
2
3
5
4
1
107
85
89
89
220
162
128
350
330
344
330
741
478
429
449
463
447
413
937
708
590
4
4
2
4
7
6
2
96
93
107
110
311
195
147
345
311
334
325
967
668
561
439
446
469
425
1,119
874
755
4
7
1
5
6
6
1
106
101
117
104
367
249
190
321
328
304
325
1,025
815
520
486
471
492
448
1,132
968
773
Table A4.3 continued
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
--------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)---------------------------------------------
All Northern States
a
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
3,509
3,509
3,509
3,509
3,509
3,509
3,509
3,466
3,332
3,393
3,372
3,910
3,731
3,587
3,445
3,475
3,370
3,389
5,650
4,451
3,770
3,776
3,485
3,543
3,454
7,656
5,528
4,707
3,747
3,612
3,692
3,497
9,555
7,001
5,943
3,858
3,851
3,590
3,781
10,403
8,251
6,210
There are seven scenarios, each representing a global greenhouse storyline (IPCC 2007) paired with a harvest regime. Storyline A1B assumes
moderate greenhouse gas emissions, moderate gains in population, and large gains in income and energy consumption (but with a balanced
renewable/fossil fuel portfolio); A2 assumes high greenhouse gas emissions, large gains in population and energy consumption, and moderate
gains in income; and B2 assumes low greenhouse gas emissions with moderate gains in population, income, and energy consumption. Scenario
projections assume harvest will continue at recently observed levels (labeled –C) or increase to reflect increased harvest for bioenergy
production (labeled –BIO). Scenario A2-EAB is a variation of scenario A2-C that also assumes all ash species will gradually succumb to an
expanding zone of infestation by the nonnative emerald ash borer.
Appendices
357
Table A4.4—Projected volume of annual harvest removals in the North, 2010 to 2060, for seven future
scenarios based on greenhouse gas emissions storylines developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC 2007).
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
--------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)---------------------------------------------
Connecticut
Delaware
Illinois
Indiana
358
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
33
33
33
33
33
33
33
72
72
72
72
72
72
72
14
16
10
23
13
12
13
3
7
6
5
7
4
5
40
48
46
44
50
55
48
98
101
83
81
105
98
111
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
10
7
8
7
20
10
18
4
4
6
6
5
6
7
29
31
31
37
50
41
54
87
102
83
76
149
142
89
5
8
2
1
14
15
9
9
4
5
3
12
7
8
55
24
66
27
88
65
49
122
75
95
81
261
181
155
6
8
2
4
14
6
7
4
6
8
3
18
9
8
37
50
46
45
122
89
77
119
95
114
76
347
243
204
3
4
3
2
12
9
11
6
6
5
6
16
14
11
38
35
35
47
150
133
71
87
113
101
113
395
311
210
Table A4.4 continued
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
--------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)---------------------------------------------
Iowa
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
542
542
542
542
542
542
542
54
54
54
54
54
54
54
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
37
45
46
38
47
50
47
539
515
578
532
619
622
565
62
47
44
49
66
58
66
19
21
26
18
37
30
28
47
62
73
48
102
61
55
547
540
569
532
880
700
640
25
34
35
25
79
47
43
14
14
12
18
23
24
17
66
37
54
51
131
76
96
544
557
560
509
1,095
821
713
28
40
43
29
71
73
46
12
4
11
6
16
10
17
43
35
83
33
140
98
84
546
491
559
503
1,160
1,008
829
24
45
55
46
108
82
81
<1
0
6
3
18
10
12
44
42
68
39
164
116
96
559
567
494
550
1,143
1,065
874
38
31
42
42
89
83
86
3
0
8
4
18
9
12
Appendices
359
Table A4.4 continued
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
--------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)---------------------------------------------
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
New Hampshire
360
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
318
318
318
318
318
318
318
257
257
257
257
257
257
257
141
141
141
141
141
141
141
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
327
339
328
294
368
337
363
236
229
218
246
291
237
256
125
141
138
143
160
180
132
96
74
95
93
100
100
101
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
310
330
358
299
616
462
410
275
290
242
281
422
283
314
153
128
159
165
232
181
164
83
81
78
91
189
152
107
370
341
353
340
809
584
491
274
260
289
282
590
405
363
158
125
159
166
329
243
214
101
90
123
95
263
155
149
357
354
360
316
1,073
767
645
271
302
283
259
663
496
445
146
140
162
115
442
314
257
123
110
114
84
344
239
207
359
392
398
360
1,142
894
706
302
323
285
334
605
527
461
141
148
179
153
595
394
301
87
101
115
109
404
285
215
Table A4.4 continued
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
--------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)---------------------------------------------
New Jersey
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
274
274
274
274
274
274
274
181
181
181
181
181
181
181
362
362
362
362
362
362
362
12
29
22
24
26
30
21
150
150
157
142
177
154
142
237
201
200
207
270
241
209
332
315
295
340
339
351
327
35
19
14
20
27
19
22
157
172
159
186
280
227
184
187
208
221
173
375
306
237
327
358
349
309
517
371
335
26
16
18
12
41
38
36
207
158
178
165
463
311
251
199
229
191
195
496
360
323
333
336
351
350
734
536
477
29
22
30
23
69
58
47
188
200
183
182
570
373
349
205
225
233
210
635
453
366
379
338
338
389
1,059
680
660
20
14
24
16
71
48
38
227
201
237
200
732
473
377
227
229
196
193
710
546
376
380
349
324
334
1,226
919
718
Appendices
361
Table A4.4 continued
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
--------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)---------------------------------------------
Rhode Island
Vermont
West Virginia
Wisconsin
362
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
105
105
105
105
105
105
105
286
286
286
286
286
286
286
311
311
311
311
311
311
311
3
2
1
3
3
3
3
100
88
100
78
98
94
80
294
272
291
331
346
322
328
375
377
392
368
418
442
427
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
<1
1
1
1
5
2
<1
113
91
84
96
153
136
91
243
258
300
317
484
421
312
401
401
386
365
646
521
469
2
1
<1
<1
1
<1
<1
95
76
83
82
208
154
122
309
308
329
307
703
456
413
426
445
436
396
915
690
580
<1
<1
<1
<1
3
2
<1
82
84
99
101
297
186
139
296
283
310
297
922
641
537
412
425
454
405
1,094
853
741
<1
2
<1
<1
2
1
<1
91
90
110
94
352
238
184
263
293
287
290
970
781
503
454
445
480
423
1,102
943
761
Table A4.4 continued
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
--------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)---------------------------------------------
All Northern States
a
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
3,133
3,133
3,133
3,133
3,133
3,133
3,133
3,097
3,018
3,078
3,058
3,541
3,418
3,272
3,046
3,133
3,169
3,052
5,255
4,113
3,566
3,340
3,133
3,346
3,096
7,240
5,179
4,513
3,268
3,213
3,439
3,093
9,099
6,607
5,694
3,327
3,387
3,389
3,309
9,899
7,790
6,012
There are seven scenarios, each representing a global greenhouse storyline (IPCC 2007) paired with a harvest regime. Storyline A1B assumes
moderate greenhouse gas emissions, moderate gains in population, and large gains in income and energy consumption (but with a balanced
renewable/fossil fuel portfolio); A2 assumes high greenhouse gas emissions, large gains in population and energy consumption, and moderate
gains in income; and B2 assumes low greenhouse gas emissions with moderate gains in population, income, and energy consumption. Scenario
projections assume harvest will continue at recently observed levels (labeled –C) or increase to reflect increased harvest for bioenergy
production (labeled –BIO). Scenario A2-EAB is a variation of scenario A2-C that also assumes all ash species will gradually succumb to an
expanding zone of infestation by the nonnative emerald ash borer.
Appendices
363
Table A4.5—Projected volume of total annual removals attributed to land-use change in North, 2010 to 2060,
for seven future scenarios based on greenhouse gas emissions storylines developed by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007).
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
--------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)---------------------------------------------
Connecticut
Delaware
Illinois
Indiana
364
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
8
8
8
7
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
9
6
8
6
9
6
8
17
13
14
13
17
13
14
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
9
10
5
9
9
9
5
3
3
2
3
3
3
2
10
6
5
7
10
7
5
18
13
7
13
19
13
8
10
10
3
10
10
10
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
2
9
6
5
6
9
7
6
21
13
9
14
21
13
9
11
12
5
12
10
12
4
4
4
2
3
3
4
2
10
7
6
7
11
8
7
25
16
13
17
24
16
13
12
14
4
14
11
14
4
4
4
2
4
4
4
2
12
8
4
8
12
9
4
29
19
10
20
29
19
10
Table A4.5 continued
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
--------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)---------------------------------------------
Iowa
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
3
2
2
2
3
2
2
10
9
9
9
10
9
9
40
38
37
38
40
38
37
15
16
14
16
15
16
14
3
2
1
2
3
2
1
11
9
5
9
10
9
5
49
46
30
45
47
44
32
18
18
10
18
17
19
10
3
3
1
2
3
3
2
12
10
5
10
10
9
5
48
40
27
44
42
40
26
18
19
7
18
19
19
7
4
3
2
3
4
3
2
13
12
7
11
12
11
7
43
36
26
38
36
36
25
18
20
8
19
19
20
8
5
4
2
3
4
4
2
15
14
6
14
14
14
6
41
36
18
38
35
37
18
17
22
7
21
18
22
7
Appendices
365
Table A4.5 continued
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
--------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)---------------------------------------------
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
New Hampshire
366
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
33
33
33
33
33
33
33
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
31
26
26
26
31
26
26
13
11
11
11
13
11
11
18
14
15
14
18
14
15
18
16
16
16
18
16
16
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
33
28
17
28
33
28
17
13
13
8
13
14
12
8
18
15
9
15
18
14
9
20
18
12
17
19
17
12
38
31
17
31
36
31
17
17
15
9
13
15
15
9
22
16
10
17
20
16
10
20
18
11
18
20
17
11
43
37
23
37
41
36
23
18
16
11
15
16
16
11
25
19
14
20
24
19
14
22
20
13
20
22
19
13
49
45
20
46
46
44
20
19
15
9
14
17
15
9
29
24
11
25
27
24
11
24
23
11
24
24
22
11
Table A4.5 continued
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
--------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)---------------------------------------------
New Jersey
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
54
54
54
54
54
54
54
23
23
21
23
23
23
21
22
19
19
19
22
19
19
14
12
12
12
14
12
12
56
47
47
47
56
47
47
26
25
18
26
25
28
16
24
21
10
21
23
21
10
16
15
7
13
16
13
7
59
49
27
50
61
50
28
24
25
12
26
24
25
12
27
22
11
23
26
22
10
19
15
8
17
18
16
7
66
53
27
54
64
51
25
22
24
12
26
22
25
11
31
27
14
28
30
27
14
22
19
10
21
21
19
10
75
63
38
65
72
61
36
20
25
10
26
20
26
9
36
33
11
34
35
33
11
25
24
8
25
23
24
8
85
77
31
78
82
74
30
Appendices
367
Table A4.5 continued
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
--------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)---------------------------------------------
Rhode Island
Vermont
West Virginia
Wisconsin
368
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
3
4
3
4
3
4
3
11
8
9
8
11
8
9
35
24
28
24
35
24
28
18
15
15
15
18
15
15
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
4
4
2
4
4
4
2
11
8
5
8
11
7
5
34
22
12
21
34
22
12
21
16
10
15
20
16
10
4
4
1
4
4
4
1
12
8
6
8
12
8
6
41
22
15
23
38
22
16
23
18
11
17
22
17
11
4
4
2
4
4
4
2
13
10
8
9
13
9
8
49
27
24
28
45
27
24
27
21
15
21
26
21
15
4
5
1
5
4
5
1
15
11
6
11
15
11
6
58
35
16
36
54
34
17
31
26
12
25
30
26
12
Table A4.5 continued
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
--------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)---------------------------------------------
All Northern States
a
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
375
375
375
375
375
375
375
369
314
315
314
369
314
315
399
341
201
337
395
338
203
436
352
197
358
416
349
194
479
398
252
404
455
395
249
531
464
201
472
505
461
198
There are seven scenarios, each representing a global greenhouse storyline (IPCC 2007) paired with a harvest regime. Storyline A1B assumes
moderate greenhouse gas emissions, moderate gains in population, and large gains in income and energy consumption (but with a balanced
renewable/fossil fuel portfolio); A2 assumes high greenhouse gas emissions, large gains in population and energy consumption, and moderate
gains in income; and B2 assumes low greenhouse gas emissions with moderate gains in population, income, and energy consumption. Scenario
projections assume harvest will continue at recently observed levels (labeled –C) or increase to reflect increased harvest for bioenergy
production (labeled –BIO). Scenario A2-EAB is a variation of scenario A2-C that also assumes all ash species will gradually succumb to an
expanding zone of infestation by the nonnative emerald ash borer.
Appendices
369
Table A4.6—Projected net annual growth of growing stock in the North, 2010 to 2060, for seven future
scenarios based on greenhouse gas emissions storylines developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC 2007).
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
--------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)---------------------------------------------
Connecticut
Delaware
Illinois
Indiana
370
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
79
79
79
79
79
79
79
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
226
226
226
226
226
226
226
318
318
318
318
318
318
318
15
30
4
31
15
23
24
1
7
4
7
3
8
1
110
95
104
81
77
81
83
165
154
131
127
174
156
147
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
55
11
2
8
35
9
-6
8
2
9
-4
7
4
7
-2
33
-21
38
75
69
59
104
103
120
142
120
168
154
-4
-2
-2
-8
5
5
6
5
<1
4
1
8
4
6
47
18
61
22
80
60
44
102
63
87
68
242
168
147
-4
-3
-2
-7
4
-5
3
<1
2
6
<1
14
6
6
28
44
41
39
112
82
71
96
80
102
60
325
228
193
-39
-32
11
-33
-11
-7
-1
-1
6
3
11
7
4
14
23
30
104
81
41
41
46
91
171
94
104
317
235
142
Table A4.6 continued
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
--------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)---------------------------------------------
Iowa
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
103
103
103
103
103
103
103
573
573
573
573
573
573
573
176
176
176
176
176
176
176
155
155
155
155
155
155
155
98
93
106
91
89
87
89
634
596
672
613
635
666
643
40
27
16
47
24
17
56
21
12
6
4
32
22
39
47
73
93
77
102
72
82
598
645
606
560
769
656
627
-8
-5
-6
7
14
22
-14
-27
1
4
11
3
-3
1
63
35
53
50
128
74
95
533
549
556
500
1,086
812
709
-18
1
17
-13
31
34
22
-4
-14
4
-11
-1
-8
11
40
33
82
31
137
95
82
534
481
553
492
1,149
998
823
-17
11
30
9
74
47
57
-16
-19
-1
-15
1
-9
4
31
66
79
10
100
68
65
476
523
521
519
240
434
498
18
-11
16
-25
16
3
30
-41
-36
-21
-52
-26
-51
-9
Appendices
371
Table A4.6 continued
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
--------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)---------------------------------------------
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
New Hampshire
372
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
697
697
697
697
697
697
697
421
421
421
421
421
421
421
510
510
510
510
510
510
510
188
188
188
188
188
188
188
445
446
444
397
450
458
459
306
325
280
355
352
306
333
268
263
220
259
248
304
227
153
144
157
132
133
160
123
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
348
383
469
372
573
434
523
391
412
367
399
409
418
405
229
199
284
256
279
234
269
81
69
85
106
181
122
144
336
313
337
311
776
556
476
260
247
282
270
577
392
355
139
111
150
152
312
229
205
82
73
113
78
244
139
139
318
320
338
282
1,036
733
624
255
288
273
247
650
482
436
124
124
151
98
422
298
245
102
91
102
65
324
221
195
494
542
572
493
600
617
589
475
486
367
523
119
390
282
245
295
340
307
482
402
365
59
78
96
98
220
174
118
Table A4.6 continued
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
--------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)---------------------------------------------
New Jersey
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
627
627
627
627
627
627
627
410
410
410
410
410
410
410
746
746
746
746
746
746
746
3
-11
20
-14
4
11
2
335
352
320
389
326
321
297
377
361
314
304
361
305
301
354
305
307
434
402
428
352
15
18
1
13
3
11
11
324
283
357
323
459
362
402
233
210
317
282
379
390
335
313
415
465
387
421
356
374
3
-7
6
-13
18
15
25
182
137
168
143
439
290
241
181
216
184
180
480
345
316
270
286
326
299
673
488
454
9
-1
19
-2
49
34
36
159
176
170
157
542
349
336
185
207
224
191
616
435
357
308
279
301
328
991
622
626
-15
-5
4
10
39
-5
18
278
263
316
315
604
453
338
373
312
273
239
487
461
342
436
412
362
396
700
609
581
Appendices
373
Table A4.6 continued
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
--------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)---------------------------------------------
Rhode Island
Vermont
West Virginia
Wisconsin
374
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
192
192
192
192
192
192
192
609
609
609
609
609
609
609
586
586
586
586
586
586
586
-2
4
-7
<1
2
<1
<1
132
92
149
99
132
98
121
226
233
187
325
299
298
223
618
613
619
581
603
675
612
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
2
-9
3
1
12
-3
-3
122
138
92
104
145
198
99
303
238
333
413
387
350
346
544
539
534
485
643
585
608
-2
-3
-1
-4
-3
-3
-2
84
69
78
74
197
146
117
271
287
315
285
667
436
399
405
429
427
380
894
674
570
-4
-4
-1
-4
-2
-2
-1
70
75
92
93
285
178
131
250
257
287
270
879
616
514
387
406
441
386
1,070
833
727
-9
-3
-2
-9
-11
2
-5
88
116
89
106
170
98
174
223
352
333
346
523
560
401
603
629
672
625
467
596
648
Table A4.6 continued
State
Scenarioa
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
--------------------------------------------(million cubic feet)---------------------------------------------
All Northern States
a
A1B-C
A2-C
B2-C
A2-EAB
A1B-BIO
A2-BIO
B2-BIO
6,759
6,759
6,759
6,759
6,759
6,759
6,759
4,299
4,144
4,052
4,260
4,358
4,424
4,133
3,680
3,758
4,113
3,978
5,017
4,455
4,424
2,936
2,807
3,164
2,763
6,855
4,856
4,334
2,825
2,845
3,206
2,719
8,679
6,241
5,465
3,809
4,194
4,227
4,065
5,083
5,085
4,638
There are seven scenarios, each representing a global greenhouse storyline (IPCC 2007) paired with a harvest regime. Storyline A1B assumes
moderate greenhouse gas emissions, moderate gains in population, and large gains in income and energy consumption (but with a balanced
renewable/fossil fuel portfolio); A2 assumes high greenhouse gas emissions, large gains in population and energy consumption, and moderate
gains in income; and B2 assumes low greenhouse gas emissions with moderate gains in population, income, and energy consumption. Scenario
projections assume harvest will continue at recently observed levels (labeled –C) or increase to reflect increased harvest for bioenergy
production (labeled –BIO). Scenario A2-EAB is a variation of scenario A2-C that also assumes all ash species will gradually succumb to an
expanding zone of infestation by the nonnative emerald ash borer.
Please refer to the Literature Cited section at the end of Chapter 4 for the references.
Appendices
375
Appendix Chapter 7
Table A7.1—Projections of total aboveground biomass on timberland for enhanced biomass utilization scenarios
in the North, 2010 to 2060, for three future scenarios based on greenhouse gas emissions storylines developed
by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007).
State
Initial for all
scenarios 2010
A2-BIO
2020
A2-BIO
2030
Scenarioa
A2-BIO
2040
A2-BIO
2050
A2-BIO
2060
-------------------------------------------------(million dry tons)-------------------------------------------------
New York
Missouri
Ohio
Iowa
Minnesota
Indiana
Illinois
Vermont
Wisconsin
Connecticut
Michigan
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
Massachusetts
West Virginia
Delaware
Rhode Island
Maine
New Jersey
Maryland
All Northern States
376
880
606
452
111
428
250
229
270
595
119
774
980
270
198
766
23
22
647
101
168
7,890
921
643
465
122
442
264
233
273
636
119
794
987
276
194
759
24
20
653
96
156
8,079
957
641
490
126
464
268
239
282
645
121
783
983
273
193
737
23
19
639
92
146
8,119
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
950
637
485
125
460
264
237
280
640
118
775
969
269
188
731
22
18
636
85
135
8,024
943
631
479
124
456
260
235
277
635
115
766
951
264
183
723
21
17
634
78
126
7,917
933
625
450
109
416
242
211
247
544
108
701
848
232
169
651
19
17
505
64
106
7,196
Table A7.1 continued
State
A1B-BIO
2060
B2-BIO
2060
------------(million dry tons)------------
New York
Missouri
Ohio
Iowa
Minnesota
Indiana
Illinois
Vermont
Wisconsin
Connecticut
Michigan
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
Massachusetts
West Virginia
Delaware
Rhode Island
Maine
New Jersey
Maryland
All Northern States
a
903
573
388
99
303
226
207
219
447
111
625
748
207
173
553
18
17
430
65
95
6,405
948
653
481
119
410
254
223
277
605
109
772
911
248
191
701
21
18
577
80
119
7,717
Scenarioa
A2-BIO
A1B-BIO
B2-BIO
---------------(percent change, 2010 to 2060)---------------
6.1
3.2
-0.6
-1.9
-2.8
-3.0
-8.0
-8.6
-8.6
-9.4
-9.4
-13.5
-14.1
-14.5
-15.0
-18.9
-21.3
-22.0
-36.7
-36.9
-8.8
2.6
-5.4
-14.2
-10.4
-29.3
-9.7
-9.8
-18.9
-24.9
-6.8
-19.3
-23.7
-23.5
-12.6
-27.9
-21.8
-23.5
-33.6
-36.0
-43.4
-18.8
7.7
7.8
6.3
7.3
-4.3
1.5
-2.5
2.6
1.7
-8.4
-0.3
-7.1
-8.0
-3.3
-8.4
-8.8
-18.4
-10.8
-21.2
-29.3
-2.2
There are three scenarios, each representing a global greenhouse storyline (IPCC 2007) paired with a harvest regime. Storyline A1B assumes
moderate greenhouse gas emissions, moderate gains in population, and large gains in income and energy consumption (but with a balanced
renewable/fossil fuel portfolio); A2 assumes high greenhouse gas emissions, large gains in population and energy consumption, and moderate
gains in income; and B2 assumes low greenhouse gas emissions with moderate gains in population, income, and energy consumption. Scenario
projections (labeled –BIO) assume harvest will increase to reflect increased harvest for bioenergy production.
Appendices
377
Table A7.2—Estimates of annual net forest biomass change based on enhanced biomass utilization scenarios in the North, 2010 to
2060, for three future scenarios based on greenhouse gas emissions storylines developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC 2007). Note that estimates for 2060 are based on both a 10-year increment (2050 to 2060) and a 50-year increment
(2010 to 2060), and the initial 2010 estimate was calculated using volume growth and removals from the current FIA inventory panel.
Estimated
for 2010
State
Scenarioa
A2-BIO
A2-BIO
A2-BIO
A2-BIO
A1B-BIO
2010 to 2020 2020 to 2030 2030 to 2040 2040 to 2050 2050 to 2060
----------------------------------------------------------------(thousand dry tons)----------------------------------------------------------------
Maine
Pennsylvania
West Virginia
Michigan
Maryland
Wisconsin
New Hampshire
New Jersey
Massachusetts
Vermont
Illinois
Minnesota
Connecticut
Indiana
Rhode Island
Delaware
Ohio
Iowa
Missouri
New York
All Northern States
378
-930
10,095
9,013
9,713
3,406
6,784
2,708
2,155
3,465
1,184
5,612
4,166
459
6,930
565
772
7,555
2,274
11,209
10,362
97,497
569
701
-680
2,063
-1,116
4,111
599
-551
-387
245
392
1,343
47
1,391
-128
70
1,312
1,119
3,627
4,166
18,893
-1,433
-364
-2,228
-1,179
-1,057
847
-283
-433
-106
912
630
2,195
192
365
-143
-49
2,403
317
-151
3,523
3,959
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
-239
-1,465
-637
-770
-1,054
-430
-440
-691
-507
-210
-189
-356
-292
-354
-107
-90
-454
-68
-466
-619
-9,439
-287
-1,753
-784
-917
-952
-517
-493
-684
-535
-241
-214
-386
-345
-429
-117
-101
-560
-81
-564
-742
-10,701
-12,892
-10,310
-7,200
-6,459
-1,979
-9,141
-3,165
-1,391
-1,333
-3,049
-2,426
-4,051
-712
-1,724
63
-258
-2,987
-1,527
-567
-974
-72,083
Table A7.2 continued
State
A2-BIO
2050 to 2060
B2-BIO
2050 to 2060
Scenarioa
A1B-BIO
2010 to 2060
A2-BIO
2010 to 2060
B2-BIO
2010 to 2060
----------------------------------------------------------------(thousand dry tons)----------------------------------------------------------------
Maine
Pennsylvania
West Virginia
Michigan
Maryland
Wisconsin
New Hampshire
New Jersey
Massachusetts
Vermont
Illinois
Minnesota
Connecticut
Indiana
Rhode Island
Delaware
Ohio
Iowa
Missouri
New York
All Northern States
a
-18,649
-16,377
-14,292
-12,563
-1971
-15,832
-5,327
-1,106
-928
-5,177
-2,537
-11,761
-514
-2,260
-295
-248
-7,743
-2,228
-5,001
-4,073
-128,882
-7,587
-5,266
-3,505
-2,743
-1,505
-4,328
-2,433
-713
-259
-107
-1,382
-4,310
-256
-1,653
-112
5
-1,771
-1,107
369
-2,077
-40,740
-2,856
-2,638
-2,306
-1,452
-1,232
-1,026
-756
-750
-573
-469
-361
-251
-222
-150
-86
-86
-57
-48
376
1,071
-13,874
-4,350
-4,636
-4,274
-2,986
-1,449
-2,965
-1,265
-736
-499
-1,029
-444
-2,512
-160
-484
-96
-99
-1,290
-235
-663
471
-29,702
-1,401
-1,381
-1,297
-38
-976
198
-428
-437
-129
133
-112
-376
-200
77
-74
-40
566
157
935
1,357
-3,465
There are three scenarios, each representing a global greenhouse storyline (IPCC 2007) paired with a harvest regime. Storyline A1B assumes moderate greenhouse
gas emissions, moderate gains in population, and large gains in income and energy consumption (but with a balanced renewable/fossil fuel portfolio); A2 assumes
high greenhouse gas emissions, large gains in population and energy consumption, and moderate gains in income; and B2 assumes low greenhouse gas emissions with
moderate gains in population, income, and energy consumption. Scenario projections (labeled –BIO) assume harvest will increase to reflect increased harvest for
bioenergy production.
Appendices
379
Table A7.3—Values for annually available woody biomass for bioenergy by net annual woody biomass increase
(NAWI), logging residues, standing dead material, and unused mill byproducts by State, 2010. Note that logging
residues and standing dead material were assessed for both 100 percent availability and 65 percent availability
to account for an assumed 35 percent retention rate for residues and dead material for ecological stability and
physical inaccessibility.
State
NAWI
Logging Residues
100 percent 65 percent
Standing Dead
Unused mill
100 percent 65 percent byproducts
-------------------------------------------------------------(1,000 dry tons)------------------------------------------------------------
Connecticut
Delaware
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
West Virginia
Wisconsin
All Northern States
459
772
5,612
6,930
2,274
0
3,406
3,465
9,713
4,166
11,209
2,708
2,155
10,362
7,555
10,095
565
1,184
9,013
6,784
98,427
921
113
539
1,227
522
9,178
931
200
5,368
4,166
2,520
1,261
355
4,733
3,241
6,416
10
1,799
5,048
5,284
53,831
599
74
350
798
339
5,966
605
130
3,489
2,708
1,638
820
231
3,076
2,107
4,170
7
1,170
3,281
3,435
34,990
935
124
2,415
1,970
981
7,030
1,191
1,603
6,888
6,179
3,959
2,517
650
7,337
3,631
6,810
137
1,584
4,892
5,307
66,141
Please refer to the Literature Cited section at the end of Chapter 7 for the references.
380
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
608
81
1,570
1,281
638
4,570
774
1,042
4,477
4,016
2,573
1,636
422
4,769
2,360
4,427
89
1,030
3,180
3,449
42,992
13
0
58
34
1
141
57
0
46
89
259
23
5
91
75
570
1
0
394
212
2,068
Appendix Chapter 8
Table A8.1—Estimated value of shipment of forest products, 2001 to 2011, in the North (U.S. Census
Bureau 2012).
State
1997
2002
2005
2006
Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-------------------------------------------------------------(million dollars)------------------------------------------------------------
Connecticut
Delaware
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
West Virginia
Wisconsin
All Northern States
U.S. total
191
215
242
251
244
90
89
---1,138 1,301
1,500
1,515
1,729
3,167 3,121
3,558
3,434
3,243
1,063 1,464
1,884
1,979
1,802
925 1,079
1,290
1,150
1,149
567
905
1,118
1,166
802
398
506
732
768
617
2,034 2,022
2,501
2,535
2,410
2,499 3,002
3,697
3,643
3,585
1,030 1,169
1,264
1,240
1,289
476
629
606
599
544
406
484
715
810
806
1,334 1,439
1,607
1,713
1,622
2,386 2,505
2,749
2,784
2,559
3,293 4,090
5,539
5,401
5,027
101
137
---420
429
424
416
383
1,074 1,620
1,999
1,887
1,808
3,748 4,302
5,281
5,169
4,756
26,341 30,507 36,704 36,460 34,376
88,470 89,436 112,095 112,403 102,029
--1,695
2,823
1,654
1,100
589
538
2,027
2,977
1,150
437
683
1,482
2,352
4,359
-344
1,522
4,184
29,917
87,765
--156
---1,294 1,423 1,322
2,173 2,328 2,502
1,322 1,434 1,411
702
776
797
457
464
441
385
442
451
1,645 1,930 1,903
2,228 2,415 2,398
893
908
998
383
387
401
558
498
455
1,032 1,163 1,114
1,818 1,909 2,019
3,475 3,386 3,261
--277
239
239
1,034 1,191 1,185
3,159 3,297 3,324
22,837 24,190 24,378
65,440
---
--- Value is zero or not available.
Appendices
381
Table A8.2—Estimated value of shipment of paper and paperboard in the North, 2001 to 2011 (U.S. Census
Bureau 2012).
State
1997
2002
2005
2006
Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-------------------------------------------------------------(million dollars)------------------------------------------------------------
Connecticut
1,839
1,736
1,675
1,700
1,791
1,678
1,554 1,501 1,560
Delaware
804
647
549
------Illinois
5,873
5,290
5,801
5,782
5,768
5,829
5,239 5,615 5,281
Indiana
2,765
3,158
3,305
3,416
3,834
3,777
3,517 3,872 3,901
Iowa
1,531
1,345
1,407
1,522
1,759
1,714
1,467 1,611 1,638
Maine
4,460
4,131
3,840
3,476
3,914
4,491
4,080 3,512 4,028
Maryland
1,166
1,216
1,371
1,314
1,210
1,063
1,005 1,091 1,056
Massachusetts
4,042
3,412
3,340
3,267
3,546
3,257
2,829 2,988 2,896
Michigan
4,878
4,632
4,802
4,965
4,944
5,189
4,482 4,848 4,968
Minnesota
4,050
4,050
5,067
4,384
5,204
5,420
4,791 5,504 5,853
Missouri
2,986
3,660
4,256
4,579
4,647
4,574
4,374 4,513 4,886
New Hampshire
882
511
496
415
-----New Jersey
3,211
3,255
3,476
3,241
3,216
3,198
2,760 2,427 2,582
New York
5,140
4,512
4,947
5,059
4,996
5,190
5,022 5,397 5,659
Ohio
6,844
6,858
6,904
7,422
8,119
7,785
6,653 7,188 7,415
Pennsylvania
8,901
9,236
9,793 10,935 10,285 11,057 10,503 11,336 11,554
Rhode Island
303
259
264
257
247
254
158
--Vermont
382
390
302
------West Virginia
130
200
------Wisconsin
12,652 13,603 13,261 13,806 14,193 14,258 13,042 14,221 14,465
All Northern
72,840 72,103 74,855 75,540 77,675 78,734 71,476 75,624 77,742
States
U.S. total
150,296 153,223 161,929 169,033 176,108 179,249 161,816
---- Value is zero or not available.
Please refer to the Literature Cited section at the end of Chapter 8 for the references.
382
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
Appendix Chapter10
Table A10.1—Percentage and area of additional urban development, 1990 to 2000, in various land-cover
classes in the conterminous United States (Nowak et al. 2005).
State and region
Foresta Agricultureb Otherc
Developedd
Woody Herbaceous
wetlande
wetlandf
-----------------------------------------------------(percent)-----------------------------------------------------
Connecticut
Delaware
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
West Virginia
Northeast total
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Wisconsin
North Central total
All Northern States
Florida
Georgia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Virginia
Southeast total
64.1
28.4
54.8
43.5
62.9
61.3
48.4
51.2
31.6
42.7
64.8
39.7
62.2
47.9
15.2
15.2
12.1
31.2
17.7
28.6
18.3
20.9
37.0
18.8
64.0
55.9
52.9
48.4
44.9
11.5
45.6
7.7
40.7
7.6
10.2
28.0
28.1
50.8
45.5
5.7
28.1
25.4
32.0
64.8
66.8
52.3
47.5
52.4
44.7
62.0
56.7
42.0
17.9
18.8
22.8
21.4
28.1
20.6
0.9
1.4
1.3
2.6
1.4
1.3
1.0
0.5
0.4
1.4
0.8
1.7
1.8
1.2
1.8
0.8
8.0
2.1
1.1
6.5
2.2
2.5
1.7
13.8
3.1
1.1
2.3
3.4
6.1
16.2
15.3
26.1
9.5
17.7
20.7
12.7
17.5
14.3
9.7
19.0
22.4
10.4
14.1
15.2
14.9
25.4
12.2
17.6
19.0
14.5
15.5
14.7
28.9
8.9
14.5
15.4
13.9
17.8
5.8
5.2
3.7
2.7
6.1
4.2
8.6
1.9
2.3
0.4
7.9
5.5
0.2
3.4
2.4
1.9
1.7
6.1
3.7
0.8
2.2
3.0
3.3
14.4
4.0
5.0
6.0
4.5
7.8
1.7
4.0
6.3
0.9
4.2
2.4
1.3
0.7
0.6
0.2
1.9
2.6
0.1
1.4
0.7
0.5
0.6
1.0
7.4
0.3
0.6
1.3
1.4
6.1
1.3
0.6
1.9
1.7
2.8
Appendices
383
Table A10.1 continued
State and region
Foresta Agricultureb Otherc
Developedd
Woody Herbaceous
wetlande
wetlandf
-----------------------------------------------------(percent)-----------------------------------------------------
Alabama
Arkansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
South Central total
All Southern States
Kansas
Nebraska
North Dakota
South Dakota
All Great Plains States
Arizona
Colorado
Idaho
Montana
Nevada
New Mexico
Utah
Wyoming
Intermountain total
All Rocky Mountain States
Oregon
Washington
Pacific Northwest total
California
Pacific Southwest total
All Pacific Coast States
Conterminous U.S. total
384
55.5
36.8
38.1
36.3
41.9
16.9
48.0
21.2
33.8
39.9
8.3
3.2
3.3
5.5
6.3
8.4
10.3
3.1
5.5
0.8
3.2
6.8
1.8
6.2
6.3
26.3
46.5
40.3
9.3
9.3
19.1
33.4
30.2
44.8
46.1
38.7
39.5
38.5
37.6
40.9
39.3
29.0
46.8
68.9
32.7
50.6
51.3
19.2
26.1
54.6
37.4
7.7
11.4
40.5
11.1
22.5
27.0
41.3
20.4
26.9
20.1
20.1
22.2
32.7
1.1
0.6
0.4
1.1
1.0
24.4
0.6
22.1
10.6
8.1
23.7
12.4
19.5
19.9
20.1
60.7
48.6
26.0
23.9
77.8
73.8
41.1
60.2
57.6
51.7
14.2
13.9
14.0
58.9
58.9
44.7
14.0
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
8.8
16.3
13.3
16.5
11.6
19.8
12.4
14.3
13.7
16.0
19.6
14.4
42.9
22.2
20.8
11.6
15.0
15.5
30.9
13.5
11.0
11.1
24.5
13.4
14.5
17.3
18.4
18.0
11.3
11.3
13.4
15.1
4.2
1.1
1.9
4.4
5.4
0.3
1.4
0.5
1.8
5.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.5
1.9
0.1
0.4
0.5
0.9
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.7
0.6
0.1
0.1
0.2
3.5
0.2
0.4
0.2
3.1
0.6
0.1
0.1
0.9
0.7
1.9
1.4
0.8
1.5
1.4
1.3
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.5
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.3
1.4
Table A10.1 continued
State and region
Foresta Agricultureb Otherc
Developedd
Woody Herbaceous
wetlande
wetlandf
----------------------------------------------------------(acres)----------------------------------------------------------
Connecticut
Delaware
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
West Virginia
Northeast total
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Wisconsin
North Central total
All Northern States
Florida
Georgia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Virginia
Southeast total
108,600
15,800
22,800
98,800
198,600
66,100
130,200
152,500
131,600
251,800
26,400
7,000
47,600
1,257,900
59,900
45,900
9,500
124,800
30,000
61,800
39,000
370,800
1,628,700
182,300
472,100
381,900
161,800
141,800
1,340,000
19,400
25,500
3,200
92,500
24,000
11,000
75,300
83,700
211,500
268,600
2,300
5,000
19,500
841,400
254,800
201,100
41,200
190,100
88,700
96,500
131,700
1,004,200
1,845,600
173,200
138,400
155,900
65,500
82,400
615,500
1,500
800
600
6,000
4,400
1,400
2,600
1,500
1,800
8,500
300
300
1,400
30,800
7,000
2,300
6,300
8,400
1,800
14,100
4,700
44,600
75,500
133,500
22,700
7,700
6,900
9,900
180,700
27,500
8,500
10,800
21,600
55,900
22,300
34,200
52,200
59,400
57,500
7,700
4,000
8,000
369,600
59,600
44,800
20,100
48,700
29,900
40,900
30,900
274,800
644,400
279,700
65,700
99,400
47,200
40,700
532,700
9,800
2,900
1,600
6,100
19,400
4,500
23,300
5,700
9,700
2,600
3,200
1,000
100
89,800
9,300
5,600
1,300
24,500
6,300
1,800
4,800
53,600
143,400
139,400
29,300
34,100
18,300
13,000
234,100
2,800
2,200
2,600
2,100
13,300
2,500
3,400
2,000
2,600
1,500
700
500
100
36,400
2,900
1,400
500
4,100
12,600
700
1,400
23,400
59,800
59,300
9,800
4,000
6,000
5,100
84,100
Appendices
385
Table A10.1 continued
State and region
Foresta Agricultureb Otherc
Developedd
Woody Herbaceous
wetlande
wetlandf
----------------------------------------------------------(acres)----------------------------------------------------------
Alabama
163,800
Arkansas
51,200
Kentucky
63,000
Louisiana
73,600
Mississippi
57,900
Oklahoma
22,200
Tennessee
190,000
Texas
209,600
South Central total
831,300
All Southern States
2,171,200
Kansas
8,700
Nebraska
1,500
North Dakota
600
South Dakota
1,100
All Great Plains States
11,800
Arizona
28,400
Colorado
18,000
Idaho
2,000
Montana
1,700
Nevada
1,200
New Mexico
4,600
Utah
7,100
Wyoming
300
Intermountain total
63,300
All Rocky Mountain States
75,100
386
89,200
62,400
76,100
78,400
54,500
50,400
148,600
405,300
964,900
1,580,400
48,900
31,600
5,700
10,200
96,300
65,500
45,700
34,200
11,300
10,800
16,300
42,000
2,000
227,800
324,200
3,400
800
700
2,200
1,300
31,900
2,200
218,800
261,300
442,000
24,700
5,700
3,400
4,000
37,800
206,600
85,200
16,300
7,200
109,100
105,800
42,700
10,700
583,600
621,400
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
25,900
22,700
21,900
33,400
16,100
25,900
48,900
141,800
336,600
869,300
20,500
6,600
7,500
4,500
39,100
39,600
26,200
9,700
9,300
18,900
15,700
11,600
4,300
135,400
174,400
12,300
1,500
3,200
8,900
7,500
400
5,400
5,300
44,400
278,500
100
100
0
100
300
0
0
300
600
100
600
500
200
2,400
2,700
700
600
200
6,200
800
100
300
9,000
18,000
102,100
1,500
400
200
300
2,300
0
0
100
100
100
100
100
300
900
3,300
Table A10.1 continued
State and region
Foresta Agricultureb Otherc
Developedd
Woody Herbaceous
wetlande
wetlandf
----------------------------------------------------------(acres)----------------------------------------------------------
Oregon
Washington
Pacific Northwest total
California
Pacific Southwest total
All Pacific Coast States
Conterminous U.S. total
33,700
133,400
167,100
83,600
83,600
250,700
4,125,700
52,900
58,600
111,400
181,200
181,200
292,600
4,042,800
18,200
40,000
58,100
530,400
530,400
588,600
1,727,600
22,200
52,600
74,800
101,500
101,500
176,200
1,864,400
400
1,900
2,300
600
600
2,900
427,500
700
200
800
3,500
3,500
4,300
169,500
a
Deciduous, evergreen, or mixed forests, with 25 to 100 percent tree cover.
b
Pasture, hay, row crops, small grains, or fallow (75 to 100 percent of the cover); or orchard, vineyards, or other planted woody vegetation (25
to 100 percent of the cover).
c
Bare, rock, sand, clay, quarries, strip mines, gravel pits, transitional areas, or shrubland (25 to 100 percent of the cover); or natural,
seminatural grasslands and herbaceous plants (75 to 100 percent of the cover).
d
Areas characterized by a high percentage (30 percent or more) of constructed materials or vegetation (primarily grasses) planted in
developed settings for recreation, erosion control, or aesthetic purposes (75 to 100 percent of the cover).
e
Areas where forest or shrubland vegetation accounts for 25 to 100 percent of the cover and the soil or substrate is periodically saturated
with or covered by water.
f
Areas where perennial herbaceous vegetation accounts for 75 to 100 percent of the cover and the soil or substrate is periodically saturated
with or covered by water.
Please refer to the Literature Cited section at the end of Chapter 10 for the references.
Appendices
387
“Best of all he loved the fall,
the leaves yellow on the cottonwoods,
leaves floating on the trout streams
and above the hills,
the high blue windless skies.
Now he will be
a part of them forever.”
–Ernest Hemingway
388
FUTURE FORESTS OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
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USDA, its Agencies, offices, and employees, and institutions participating in or administering USDA programs are prohibited from
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Remedies and complaint filing deadlines vary by program or incident.
Persons with disabilities who require alternative means of communication for program information (e.g., Braille, large print, audiotape,
American Sign Language, etc.) should contact the responsible Agency or USDA’s TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TTY)
or contact USDA through the Federal Relay Service at (800) 877-8339. Additionally, program information may be made available in
languages other than English.
To file a program discrimination complaint, complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form, AD-3027, found online at
http://www.ascr.usda.gov/complaint_filing_cust.html and at any USDA office or write a letter addressed to USDA and provide in
the letter all of the information requested in the form. To request a copy of the complaint form, call (866) 632-9992. Submit your
completed form or letter to USDA by: (1) mail: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights,
1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C. 20250-9410; (2) fax: (202) 690-7442; or (3) email: program.intake@usda.gov.
EST SERVICE
FOR
U RE
DE P A
U S
R T M ENT OF AGRIC U L T
U.S. Forest Service
General Technical Report
NRS-151
2016