COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Start with the End in Mind:
Building Guided Pathways
to Student Success
Davis Jenkins, Ph.D.
Senior Research Associate
Community College Research Center
Teachers College, Columbia University
Washington Community and
Technical Colleges
2013 Best Practices Exchange
October 29, 2013
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Loss/Momentum Framework
CONNECTION
ENTRY
PROGRESS
COMPLETION
From interest to application
From entry to passing
program gatekeeper
courses
From program entry to
completion of program
requirements
Completion of credential of
value for further education
and labor market
advancement
Consider
College
Education
Enter
Program
of Study
Complete
Program
of Study
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Pathway Analysis Questions
CONNECTION
ENTRY
PROGRESS
COMPLETION
From interest to application
From entry to passing
program gatekeeper
courses
From program entry to
completion of program
requirements
Completion of credential of
value for further education
and labor market
advancement
• How do we
increase the
number of new
students who
are motivated
and prepared to
enter a collegelevel program of
study?
• How do we
increase the
rates at which
new students
choose and
successfully
enter a
program?
• How do we
accelerate rate
at which
students
complete their
program
requirements?
• How do we
ensure our
programs
prepare students
for further
education and
career
advancement?
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Student Completion Metrics
5-Year Highest Outcomes by Enrollment Status
FTIC "Credit" Students
100%
90%
Not Enrolled, No Outcome
80%
70%
Still Enrolled with 30+ College
Credits
60%
Transfer 4-Year without
Award
Bachelor's from 4-Yr
50%
Transfer 4-Year with Award
40%
Associate
30%
Certificate
20%
10%
0%
Full-Time
Part-Time
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Connection/Entry: Findings
• Many students drop out after 1-2 terms
• Many students undecided
• Many defaulted into “general education”
• Students’ program progress not tracked
• “Concentrators” more likely to complete
• Math & English 101 not only “gatekeepers”
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Entry/Connection: Majors
LAS/Gen Studies
Undeclared, 72%
Protective, 6%
Agriculture
Auto & Aero
27 and Older
Bus/Market
Secretarial, 4%
Secretarial
LAS/Gen Studies, 10%
Age Categories
Comm/Design
Undeclared, 48%
Protective, 8%
Comp Info Sic
Culinary
Eng/Arch
20 to 26
Eng/Sci Tech
LAS/Gen Studies, 28%
Education/childcare
Secretarial, 4%
Protective, 5%
Allied Health
Undeclared, 24%
Nursing
Construction
Manufacturing
19 and Under
Mechanics
LAS/Gen Studies, 58%
Secretarial, 1%
Protective
Undeclared
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Entry/Connection: Concentrators
Five-Year Concentrator Rate by Declared “Major”:
Full-time vs. Part-time Credit Students
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
Full-Time
50%
Part-Time
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
LAS/General Studies
Bus/Market
Allied Health/Nursing
Other CTE
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Progress: Findings
• Enrollment continuity may be as important
as enrollment intensity
• Students very confused by transfer process
• Many students don’t follow recommended
program curriculum
• Low rate of gen ed core completion
• Many students self-advising
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Progress: Core Completion
Gen Ed Core Credits Completed
FTIC Students who Transferred Sample College
40%
35%
33%
30%
25%
20%
18%
17%
16%
15%
9%
10%
7%
5%
0%
0 credits
1-9 credits
10-19 credits
20-29 credits
30-41 credits
Completed
Core
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
5-Year Outcomes by Gen Ed Core Credits Completed
FTIC Students who Transferred, Sample College
100%
90%
80%
Transferred to 4-year,
no awards
70%
Earned award at
college, transferred to 4year, no BA
60%
50%
Earned award at
college, transferred,
earned BA
40%
No award at college,
transferred, earned BA
30%
20%
10%
0%
All
Transfers
(N=734)
0 core
credits
1-9 core
credits
10-19 core 20-29 core 30-41 core Completed
credits
credits
credits
core
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Progress: Core Completion
Earned More Gen Ed Core Credits than Required in
Subject Area, All Transfer Students, Sample College
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Completion: Findings
• Most students transfer without associate,
despite research showing importance
• Many graduates earn “excess” credits
• Many students “linger”
• Need to examine credential “stacking”
patterns
• Critical to track outcomes by program
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Student Outcomes by Major
5-Year Highest Outcomes by Enrollment Status
FTIC "Credit" Students
100%
90%
Not Enrolled, No Outcome
80%
70%
Still Enrolled with 30+ College
Credits
60%
Transfer 4-Year without
Award
Bachelor's from 4-Yr
50%
Transfer 4-Year with Award
40%
30%
Associate
20%
Certificate
10%
0%
LAS
Business
Allied
Health/Nursing
Other CTE
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Transfer Student Outcomes
Probability of Earning Bachelor’s in 6 Years
Bachelor’s Completion by Credits Earned
Source: Crosta & Kopko 2013
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Transfer Student Timing
Proportion of Transfer Students by Number of
College-Level Credits Completed
Source: Crosta & Kopko 2013
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Community College Net Benefits
Net Benefits of Community College by Outcome – Transfer Students:
Earnings minus Total Cost
(Undiscounted 2010 dollars; 20-year window)
$120,000
$100,000
$80,000
$60,000
$40,000
$20,000
$1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
$(20,000)
$(40,000)
$(60,000)
AA_trans_BA
AA_trans_noBA
NoAA_trans_BA
NoAA_trans_noBA
Source: Belfield, 2013
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Transfer Destinations
2005-06 FTIC 5-Year Transfer Destinations
Other
22%
Public University 4
2%
Private University 3
3%
Public Unviersity 1
41%
Public University 3
4%
Private University 2
4%
For-Profit Univ. 1
5%
Public University 2
19%
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Transfer Destination Grad Rates
2005-06 FTIC "Credit" Students' 5-Year Transfer Destinations
Share of Transfers and Graduates
Share of Transfers
Share of Grads
Public University 1
30.7%
39.8%
Public University 2
7.5%
11.1%
For-Profit University 1
6.8%
0.3%
Public University 3
4.1%
7.0%
Private University 1
3.7%
3.2%
For-Profit University 1
3.0%
0.0%
Public University 4
2.7%
2.0%
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Transfer Bachelor’s Earners
2005-06 FTIC "Credit" Bachelor's Earners
by Award Type
Other, 15%
B.S. in
Nursing, 2%
B.F.A., 3%
B.S. in Bus.
Admin., 8%
B.A., 39%
B.S., 33%
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Transfer Bachelor’s Majors
2005-06 FTIC "Credit" Bachelor's Earners
by Program
Psychology, 8%
Business
Administration,
6%
Communication
Studies, 6%
Elementary
Education, 5%
Other, 49%
Biology, 5%
Management, 5%
Nursing, 5%
Marketing, 4%
Finance, 4%
English, 5%
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Credential “Stacking” by
FTIC Community College Cohort Over 5 Years
Of students who
earned:
…Percentage who also earned:
Certificate Certificate ≥ Associate
< 1 yr.
1 yr.
degree
Certificate < 1 yr.
7%
Transfer to 4- Bachelor's
year
degree
22%
5%
1%
14%
3%
0%
36%
9%
Certificate ≥ 1 yr.
11%
Associate Degree
5%
2%
Transfer to 4-yr.
0%
0%
13%
Bachelor's Degree
0%
0%
17%
20%
100%
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Status Quo Pathway Design
• Little upfront career or college planning
• Remediation narrowly focused on math
and English, little “soft skills” prep
• Programs paths unclear; too many choices
• Poor alignment with requirements for further
education and career advancement
• Students’ progress not monitored
• Limited on-going feedback and support
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
General Education Core
ENGL
101
Dev
Reading
Intake
Dev
ENGL
Allied Health
Nursing
Career-Path
Career-Path
Employment
Employment
A.S.
Pre-major
Business
Electives
A.A.
Electives
Transfer as
Junior in Major
Health Prereqs
A.A.S.
Certificates
Math
101
ABE, ESL,
GED
Dev
Math
Meet with Advisor (1st Term Schedule)
Voluntary Orientation
Strong connection -
Placement Testing
Weak connection -
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Guided Pathways to Success
 Clear roadmaps to success
 On-ramps to programs of study
 Progress tracking, feedback and support
 Bridges to college (from high school, adult
basic skills, non-credit workforce programs)
 Collaborative communities of practice
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Model Implementation at Scale
• Florida State U (Exploratory majors)
• Georgia State U (Structured Interventions)
• Arizona State U (TAGs)
• Austin Peay University (Degree Compass)
• Valencia CC (Lifemap + Pre-majors)
• Queensborough CC (Freshmen Academies)
• Miami Dade (Communities of Interest)
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
First-Year Experience
Education, Child Care
Social Services
Health Sciences
Career-Path
Career-Path
Employment
Employment
Business
STEM
Social/Behavioral
Science
English, Arts,
Humanities
Transfer as Junior in
Major
A.A.S.
Certificates
Program
On-Ramp
Program
On-Ramp
Program
On-Ramp
Program
On-Ramp
Program
On-Ramp
Program
On-Ramp
Contextualized Basic
Skills (e.g. I-BEST)
Meet with Advisor (Choose initial program stream; plan full program schedule)
Required Career Interest and Academic Readiness Testing
Strong connection -
Required Initial Orientation
Weak connection -
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Supporting Evidence
• Highly varied student enrollment patterns
• Students say they want guidance
• Experimental evidence re: “nudges,”
“defaults,” “active choice”
• K-12 research on “instructional program
coherence” and “constrained curricula”
• Higher education research on “structure,”
“contextualization” and “acceleration”
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Pathway Redesign Principles
1) Give each student a clear roadmap to success
2) Ensure maps lead to further education and
career advancment
3) Simplify choices for students
4) Monitor student progress, providing frequent
feedback and support as needed
5) Engage faculty and staff across silos to map
pathways and design integrated supports
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Start with the End in Mind
STEP 4
STEP 3
STEP 2
START HERE
CONNECTION
ENTRY
PROGRESS
COMPLETION
From interest to application
From entry to passing
program gatekeeper
courses
From program entry to
completion of program
requirements
Completion of credential of
value for further education
and labor market
advancement
• Market program
paths
• Build bridges
from high school
and adult ed. into
program streams
(e.g., strategic
dual enrollment,
I-BEST)
• Help students
choose program
pathway and
track entry
• Build prescribed
“on-ramps”
customized to
largest program
streams
• Clearly define and
prescribe program
paths
• Monitor students’
progress and
provide feedback
and supports JIT
• Incentivize
progress
• Align academic
program
outcomes with
requirements for
success in
further education
and (for CTE
programs) in the
labor market
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
PRESENTATION TITLE IN HEADER / MONTH XX, 2012
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Stakeholder Engagement
Challenges
Solutions
Leadership Buy-in
Get on the Same Page
Lack of Authenticity
Purposeful Engagement
Initiative Overload
Fundamental Restructuring, Tie
to Mission
Resistance to Mandates
Collaborative Redesign
Heavy Workloads
Respect & Recognition
Fear of Change
Honesty & Clarity
Poorly Structured Meetings
Quality Facilitation, Goal & Role
Clarity
Source: Public Agenda 2013
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
For more information
Please visit us on the web at
http://ccrc.tc.columbia.edu
where you can download presentations, reports,
and briefs, and sign-up for news announcements.
We’re also on Facebook and Twitter.
Community College Research Center
Institute on Education and the Economy,
Teachers College, Columbia University
525 West 120th Street, Box 174, New York, NY 10027
E-mail: ccrc@columbia.edu Telephone: 212.678.3091
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Ideal CC Student Pathways
Source: Crosta 2013.
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Actual CC Student Pathways
N=14,429.
Source: Crosta 2013.
COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Actual CC Student Pathways
N=14,429.
Source: Crosta 2013.