Pigmeat & Poultry
Peter Duggan
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
AIDAN COTTER
Growing
the success
CHIEF
EXECUTIVE
BORD BIA
of Irish28food
& horticulture
JANUARY
2009
Jan 2014
Pigmeat market update
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Irish production lower in 2013
2012
2013
Difference
(‘000 hd)
(‘000 hd)
(‘000 hd)
ROI
2,894
2,823
- 71
- 2.5%
NI
609
571
-38
-6.2
Total
3,503
3,394
- 109
-3.1%
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
% Change
Output to increase by 2% in 2014
Recovery in the breeding herd
PRRS outbreak has settled down
Advancement in productivity levels
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
EU pig herd in decline
Annual % change June 2013/12
6
Gilts
Breeding sows
4.3
4
1.6
2
0.9
0.8
0
-2
-2.1
-2.4
-4
-5.4
-6
-6.5
-8
-7.8
EU
DE
ES
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
FR
NL
1.6
EU GIP pigmeat production in 2014
% change on previous year
0.3
0.5
0
-0.3
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-0.9
-1.6
-1.5
-1.6
-2
-2.5
2013
-3
2014 (p)
-3.3
-3.5
Year
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Pig prices moved upwards during 2013
EU 3% higher
c/kg dw excl VAT
200
180
160
Ire
140
120
IE 6% higher
2012
100
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
EU
2013
Russian and Chinese imports of EU pigmeat
Tonnes
c/kg
2012
75,000
2013
China
220
Russia
Price
200
65,000
180
55,000
160
140
45,000
120
35,000
100
25,000
80
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Irish exports, ‘000 tonnes
2012
2013 (f)
Total
178
177
-1
UK
78
77
-1
Continental EU
39
35
-10
International
61
65
+7%
Irish exports 2013
+3% in value to €525 m
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
% Change
Irish exports to key International markets
30,000
25,000
20,000
2012
2013 (e)
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
China
Russia
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Japan
International trade expected to improve in 2014
2013
2014 (f)
20
6
10
1
% Ch YOY
2
3
3
3
0
-2
-3
-10
-20
-16
-20
-30
-40
Russia
Japan
China
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
South Korea Hong Kong
In summary….
Irish output to recover in 2014
Lower EU sow numbers to have little impact on output during
the first half of 2014
Strong International demand supported higher prices during
2013
Declining feed costs to contribute to herd rebuilding
Improved International trade forecast for 2014
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Poultry market update
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
EU broiler price 2% higher during 2013
Cent/kg dw
2013
200
Prices +15%
190
2012
180
170
160
150
1
4
7
10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Annual % Change in EU broiler output
4.8
5
4
2.4
3
1.6
2
1.7
1.2
1
0
2010
2011
2012
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
2013 (e)
2014 (f)
European poultry consumption increasing
0.5
0
2013
2014
-0.5
-1
-1.5
Poultry
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Meat
Summary
Marginal increase in EU consumption in 2013
Lower feed costs
Rising costs of beef and pork
European production and exports to grow in line with
domestic and International demand
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Thank you!
Peter Duggan
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
AIDAN COTTER
Growing
the success
CHIEF
EXECUTIVE
BORD BIA
of Irish28food
& horticulture
JANUARY
2009
Jan 2014