Pigmeat & Poultry
Peter Duggan
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
AIDAN COTTER
Growing
the success
CHIEF
EXECUTIVE
BORD BIA
of Irish food
& horticulture
28 JANUARY
2009
9th Jan 2015
Pigmeat market update
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Irish pig supplies 3% higher in 2014
ROI
NI
Total
2013
2014
Difference
(‘000 hd)
(‘000 hd)
(‘000 hd)
2,823
2,969
+ 146
530 numbers -41
1.571Higher breeding
2. Increased productivity
3. PRRS settled down
3,394
3,499
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
+105
% Change
+ 5.2%
-7.2
+3.1%
Output to increase by 4% in 2015
Further recovery in the breeding herd
Advancement in productivity levels
Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDv) is spreading
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
EU pig breeding herd shows first increase in nearly a
decade
Annual % change June 2014/13
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Breeding sows
Gilts
5.3%
0.8%
EU
1.5%
1.2%
DE
ES
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
DK
1.2%
NL
EU GIP pigmeat production in 2015
% change on previous year
1.4%
1.5
2015 H1 +1%
1
1%
0.6%
14/13
15/14 (p)
0.5
0
-0.5
-0.2%
-0.5%
-1
Year
Qtr 1
-0.6%
-0.7%
Qtr 2
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
Pig prices moved downwards during 2014
c/kg dw excl VAT
200
2013
2014
EU 10% lower
180
160
Ire
140
IE 4% lower
120
100
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
EU
Irish exports, ‘000 tonnes
2013
2014 (f)
Total
185
198
+7
UK
83
87
+5
Continental EU
38
41
+8
International
64
70
+10
Irish exports 2014
+3% in value to €570 m
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
% Change
Irish exports to key International markets
+20%
35,000
30,000
2013
-94%
2014 (e)
25,000
20,000
+210%
15,000
+650%
10,000
5,000
0
China
Russia
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Japan
South Korea
International trade expected to improve in 2015
24%
20
10%
% Ch YOY
10
3%
0
-3%
-10
2014/13
-20
-18%
2015/14(f)
-30
-40
China
South Korea Hong Kong
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Japan
Russia
Hog and sow inventory China, 2010-2014
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
In summary….
Irish output set to increase in 2015
Increased EU sow numbers will edge output upwards during the
first half of 2015
PEDv and political events will continue to affect trade
International trade will be driven by Asia in 2015
Chinese sow herd now at its lowest level since 2009
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Poultry market update
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
EU broiler price 2% lower during 2014
Cent/kg dw
2013
200
2013
2012
190
Strong international demand
180
170
Low competing pork prices 2H
Weak EU demand
160
Week
2014
1
4
7
10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
EU poultry output, ‘000 tonnes
+1.9%
13,500
+0.7%
13,000
12,500
12,000
11,500
2010
2011
2012
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
2013
2014 (e)
2015 (f)
H5N8 update
First Notification
No. outbreaks
Germany
05/11/14
3
The Netherlands
16/11/14
5
UK
16/11/14
1
Italy
15/12/14
1
USA
18/12/14
1
Total
05/11/14
11
Export bans to 3rd countries for affected regions
Lower supply in buffer zones due to massive culling
Impact of Dutch restrictions on future supply
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
EU consumption stabilizing
16 000
EU 15
EU 25
EU 27
EU 28
Poultrymeat Volumes ('000 t cwe)
14 000
12 000
10 000
Production
Imports
8 000
Exports
6 000
Consumption
4 000
2 000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015f
Source: Gira
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Irish poultry consumption, 52 w/e 7th Dec 2014
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Summary
Solid EU export demand offset lower consumption
Marginal increase in poultry output forecast in 2015
H5N8 unpredictable, but likely to remain under control
Switching has boosted Irish consumption
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Thank you
Peter Duggan
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
AIDAN COTTER
Growing
the success
CHIEF
EXECUTIVE
BORD BIA
of Irish food
& horticulture
28 JANUARY
2009
9th Jan 2015