Perceptions of Frozen Food
UK & Ireland
24th April ‘14
Stephanie Moe
Agenda
Frozen Food Performance
Bord Bia’s Work to Date: Future of Frozen
Background to Current Research
Perceptions of Frozen Foods
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
FROZEN FOOD
PERFORMANCE
Irish Market for Frozen Food
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Jan. 2014
Market slow to recover from January 2013: -3%
Buyer numbers holding steady: 99% buy frozen
Drop in Average spend per shopper (€262 from
€269 in 2012)
Promotions: Prices -2.3% on average since 2012,
21% of packs sold on deal across frozen
Volume decreasing across fish, pizza and ready
meals despite promotional activity
Clear need to drive value back into the market
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
The UK Total Frozen Market is worth £5.7bn, and is growing at 2.1%: Trip Spend is driving the growth as well as
an increase in shoppers
Frozen Grocery Components of Spend Trends – 52 w/e 31st March 2013 vs. 30th March 2014
Key Performance Indicators
Total Frozen
Value up 2.1% worth £118.9m
5,627,925
5,746,851
118,926
2.1
Reb
alan
Penetration
%
ced
####
99.1
99.1
0.02
0.0
N/A
Purchase Frequency
47.28
47.38
0.10
0.2
AWP (Spend per Buyer)
217.2
219.6
2.40
1.1
4.59
4.63
0.04
1.0
52 w/e 03 Mar 13 52 w/e 02 Mar 14
Expenditure (£000s)
Penetration %
Trip Spend
Actual
Change
%
Change
Contribution
(£000s)
11903.39
£0
54157.73
Purchase Frequency
Trip Spend
####
####
£20,000
£40,000
£60,000
£80,000
£100,000
£120,000
£140,000
####
Expenditure (£000s)
£5746.9m +2.1%
Increase of £118.9m
AWP (Spend per Buyer)
Penetration % *
£220 +1.1%
Contribution = £64.1m
99.1% +0%
Contribution = £54.9m
Trip Spend
Purchase Frequency
£4.63 +1%
Contribution = £52.5m
47.4 trips +0.2%
Contribution = £11.5m
* Penetration contribution includes population growth of 1%
5
© Kantar Worldpanel
Poultry and Game continues to show strongest year on year performance, with Frozen Confectionery also
performing well while Frozen Meat continues to struggle
Frozen Grocery Sector Expenditure Share and YOY – 52 w/e 31st March 2013 versus 30th March 2014
YOY %
57.2
Frozen Prepared Foods
56.7
1.4
18.6
Frozen Confectionery
5.2
19.1
13.5
Frozen Fish
0.1
13.3
5.8
Frozen Poultry+Game
8.0
6.1
4.9
Frozen Meat
-2.0
4.7
52 w/e 31 March 13
52 w/e 30 March 14
6
© Kantar Worldpanel
Tesco and Morrisons are the retailers seeing the biggest share decline in Frozen. Aldi have seen the biggest
increase in share and Waitrose has seen double-digit growth
Frozen Grocery Retailer Expenditure Share and YOY – 52 w/e 31st March 2013 versus 30th March 2014
YOY %
25.6
24.6
Total Tesco
14.9
14.8
Total Asda
12.1
12.2
Total Sainsbury's
-2.2
14.5
14.7
Total Iceland
2.7
2.9
Total Waitrose
Total Marks & Spencer
23.5
2.9
3
Lidl
3.8
13.0
3.5
4.2
Aldi
Total Independents & Symbols
-3.9
4.1
3.9
The Co-Operative
1.3
3.2
10.0
9.4
Total Morrisons
-1.9
6.5
0.8
0.8
-8.5
1.1
1.1
5.5
52 w/e 31 Mar 13
52 w/e 30 Mar 14
7
© Kantar Worldpanel
Aldi and Waitrose lead the market in terms of growth, with Lidl also performing well. Independents & Symbols,
Morrisons, The Co – Operative and Tesco are in decline.
Frozen Grocery Retailer Expenditure YOY – 52 w/e 31st March 2013 versus 30th March 2014
Aldi
23.5
Total Waitrose
13.0
Lidl
6.5
Total Marks & Spencer
5.5
Total Iceland
3.8
Total Sainsbury's
3.2
TOTAL MARKET
2.1
Total Asda
1.3
Total Tesco
-1.9
The Co-Operative
-2.2
Total Morrisons
Total Independents & Symbols
-3.9
-8.5
8
© Kantar Worldpanel
Asda is the only Big 4 retailer to over-trade in Frozen, with Sainsbury's and Tesco significantly under trading.
Iceland continues its strong over-trade alongside Aldi.
Retailer Expenditure Share of Total Grocery & Frozen Grocery – 52 w/e 30th March 2014
26.6
24.6
14.5 14.8
15.0
14.7
12.2
10.8
9.4
5.3
4.5
3.9
2.1
Total Tesco
Total Asda
Total
Sainsbury's
Total
Morrisons
The CoOperative
Total Iceland
Total Grocery
2.9
3.3
4.2
2.8
3.0
1.2
Total Waitrose
Aldi
Lidl
0.8
Total
Independents &
Symbols
Total Frozen
9
© Kantar Worldpanel
25/04/2014
10
© Kantar Worldpanel
Frozen share of in store space declining…
Morrisons the strongest supporter of Frozen, Waitrose increased space slightly
Total Frozen | Share of Store Space | MAT
2010
2012
6.7% 6.6%
6.6%
5.8%
5.2%
4.8%
4.2%
4.5%
4.8%
4.4%
4.0%
3.0% 3.1%
Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
5.3%
5.1%
5.0%
3.0%
2.6%
TESCO
EXTRA
TESCO
SUPERSTORE
TESCO
EXPRESS
Prepared for: Nielsen State of the Nation
Source: Store Observation Service w/e 05-Jan-13
TESCO
METRO
ASDA
SAINSBURY'S SAINSBURY'S MORRISONS
SUPERSTORE
LOCAL
WAITROSE
11
…and freezer types vary by store format
Are packaging designs and product formats tailored to your customer’s needs?
Total Frozen | Share of Store Space | MAT
37%
TESCO EXTRA
50%
45%
TESCO S/STORE
44%
TESCO
EXPRESS
9%
Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
SAINSBURY'S
S/STORE
18%
3% 4%
70%
67%
41%
SAINSBURY'S
LOCAL
34%
8%
18%
91%
35%
MORRISONS
3%
26%
32%
ASDA
WAITROSE
9%
74%
4%
7%
8%
84%
TESCO METRO
ICELAND
5%
10%
5% 4%
29%
8%
82%
Freezer Type 1 – Door only
Freezer Type 2 – Well with Freezer Door above
Freezer Type 3 – Well without Freezer Door above
Freezer Type 4 – Well with Shelves above
28%
4% 4%
Type 1: Convenience Stores | Type 2: Asda and Waitrose | Type 4: Iceland, Morrisons and
Sainsbury’s
Prepared for: Nielsen State of the Nation
Source: Store Observation Service w/e 05-Jan-13
12
BORD BIA
FOCUS ON FROZEN
Exploring the future of frozen food
‘What key opportunity spaces may emerge for
frozen food over the next five to ten years?’
Key drivers shaping
landscape
.
Emerging trends
Opportunity areas
Opportunities for ten key markets: the US, the
UK, Ireland, Germany, France, Brazil, Japan,
Sweden, India and China
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Opportunities under four broad platforms
Cool living
Preserving goodness
Responsible choices
New frontiers
© 2013 Bord Bia, The Futures Company
Mapping opportunities
The timeline below gives an indication of close, or how far away, key opportunities are for frozen food
manufactures. Those that are closer in represent potential territories for ‘quick-wins’. Those that are further
out are more reliant on scientific or technological progress, and are areas where consumer needs are still
emerging.
New diets
Perfect portions
Spectrums of
cool
Positively frozen
Wholesome kids
Sophisticated
Shortcuts
1 to 2 years
© 2013 Bord Bia, The Futures Company
Anytime,
Anywhere
Safeguarding
nutrition
Low impact
frozen
Frozen theatre
Rethinking the
pack
Frozen
gastronomy
5 years and
beyond
Cool living
Key opportunities
Sophisticated
shortcuts
New diets
Anytime,
anywhere
© 2013 Bord Bia, The Futures Company
Preserving goodness
Key opportunities
Wholesome kids
Positively frozen
Safeguarding
nutrition
© 2013 Bord Bia, The Futures Company
Responsible choices
Key opportunities
Perfect portions
Low-impact
freezing
Rethinking the
pack
© 2013 Bord Bia, The Futures Company
New frontiers
Key opportunities
Spectrum of
cool
Frozen theatre
Frozen
gastronomy
© 2013 Bord Bia, The Futures Company
BACKGROUND TO
PERCEPTIONS
RESEARCH
Background to Consumer Perception Research
Larger stores shrinking frozen/Smaller store formats
growing (poor frozen presence)
Limited innovation in product offering
Poor overall growth compounded by equine DNA issue
Missing part of jigsaw: consumers perceptions &
usage of frozen
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Background to Consumer Perception Research contd
Need to understand Positive/ negative perceptions (barriers) of
both frozen products and the frozen category
Who, what when where why and how they use frozen?
Commissioned Waves Research in late 2013, in-field early 2014
Desired Outcome :
Enhanced understanding of target consumer
Help to inform future messaging, packaging
Deeper understanding can help to partner with retailers for future
growth
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Waves:
Andrew Vincent
Helen Clark