So where does the
consumer fit in?
Henry Tucker, Director
June 2011
Who we are
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1
The leading global foresight and futures consultancy
 Consultants, researchers
and futures experts who
unlock strategies for
future success
 Formed from the merger
of The Henley Centre,
HeadlightVision and
Yankelovich, with 100
years of combined
experience
 Teams in UK, US,
Mexico, Brazil, Argentina,
India
 A Kantar company within
WPP
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We have worked with a wide array of organisations to help them
define their strategy
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Where are we now?
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A moment of transition
 The assumptions of the long global boom
 Globalization is inevitable
 Technology will render everything inexpensive
 Capital is cheap
 Oil is plentiful
 Open markets are the best way forward
 But following the 2008 financial crisis, these
assumptions are being challenged
 A new world is starting to open up – but the
old world is still in place
 We are in a moment of transition
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A world of divided prospects and different pathways
Stressed & struggling
to cope
Cautious & uncertain
about the future
Hopeful & optimistic
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Source: The Futures Company Global MONITOR 2010 (Standardized data)
Tension at the boundaries
The 50+ age group has more
discretionary income than
any other demographic
In the 17 countries forming the
Eurozone, joblessness among the young
stands at 20.4% in January 2011, up
from 14.6% in February 2008 before the
start of the financial crisis.
Source
Financial
Times
Feb 2011
“Europe grapples with youth unemployment”,
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Company
2011
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Consumers continue to tell us that the environment is important,
despite a dip since the recession
Climate change is the single
biggest single problem facing
the world today
100%
% Agree strongly or slightly
61%
51%
51%
2009
2010
50%
0%
2008
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Source: The Futures Company, Global Monitor 2010
However, behaviour change has been less extensive than we
might have expected
Compared to the £68.8 billion spent on food by
the UK consumer in 2008, only £4.3 billion is
spent on ethical food and drink*
Expenditure on Green Home products represents
less than 1% of total household expenditure
Only 34% of household waste was recycled or
composted in 2007-8, estimates suggest that this
is half of what could be recovered
*Includes: Organic, Fairtrade, Rainforest Alliance, Farmer’s markets, Free range eggs and
poultry, Freedom Foods, Sustainable Fish and Dolphin-Friendly tuna.
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Euromonitor, The Cooperative Bank, DEFRA
Why is there such a large gap between concern and proenvironmental action?
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Understanding engagement
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Engagement with the environment for the majority is relatively shallow –
it is not a core life priority or concern driving consumption decisions
My priorities
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The environment
Where environmental action is present it has often been linked
with one or more core life priorities
My priorities
e.g. Growing
vegetables with
the kids
e.g. Turning down
the thermostat
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We know that consumers are most concerned about – and likely
to act upon – the issues that directly affect them and their family
My World
Our World
The World
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Some green behaviours have become mainstream because they
are simple, tangible and easy to visualise
LESS LANDFILL
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FEWER WATER SHORTAGES
The idea of avoiding waste is also underpinning many current
green actions
“Everything in our house is
unplugged except for the fridge and
the Sky Box... It only saves a bit but
it’s a waste otherwise”
Adopter
“I always prefer to reuse things rather
than throw them away. It’s got
nothing to do with the environment
though”
Sceptic
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Source: The Futures Company Qualitative Research
Overall, the perceived personal benefits of a green action must
outweigh the perceived costs for consumers to take action
Potential costs to
me:
• More expensive
• More time and effort
• Worse quality
products
• Sacrifice what I want
to do
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vs.
Potential benefits to
me:
• Save money
• Better for my health
• Better quality
products
• Feel good / alleviate
guilt
• Social kudos
It is important to recognise that perceptions of the personal costs
and benefits of green products and behaviours are not consistent
Less engaged
More engaged
“Green cleaning
products don‟t
work!”
“Less chemicals so
better for me and my
family”
“Just a way of the
supermarkets to
make more money
from me”
“Organic veg is
much tastier, and
better for you”
“Taking the tram is
expensive and an
inconvenience – I‟d
rather drive”
“Saves me time and
avoids the stress of
driving”
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Looking forward
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There is a core of consumers who are actively engaged and motivated
by „doing their bit‟ and who are seeking green solutions
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The Mainstream are looking for others to take the lead, or for
clear personal benefits
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Picture credits: Kenco
Sceptics are more proactively „wound up‟ by the environmental
agenda
“I play along with the game and do my recycling but I think it’s a load
of nonsense.” Sceptic
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How to drive „My World‟ relevance?
Environment
My World
Health
Our World
The World
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How to drive „My World‟ relevance?
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The Organic sector is going to have fight harder for
share of mind with consumers
Think about consumers‟ life priorities – how can you
offer solutions in line with these?
Keep it simple – whether on pack, on-line or in-store
make it easy to understand the benefit you offer
Thank you
Henry Tucker, Director
+44 7768 034 984
Henry.tucker@thefuturescompany.com
www.thefuturescompany.com
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