Understanding the UK Retail Dynamics
Dublin – February 26 2009
Edward Garner
Communications Director
Worldpanel UK
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Consumer Downturn
Grocery Price Inflation – TNS Calculation
12 w/e periods year-on-year
9.0 9.3 8.9
8.1
8.5 8.3 8.4
6.8
5.8
4.9 4.6 5.0
27
-J
an
-0
24
8
-F
eb
23 -0
-M 8
a
20 r-0
-A 8
p
18 r-0
-M 8
a
15 y-0
8
-J
un
13 -08
-J
u
10 l-0
8
-A
ug
-0
07
-S 8
ep
05 -0
-O 8
c
02 t-0
8
-N
o
30 v-0
-N 8
o
28 v-0
-D 8
e
25 c-0
8
-J
an
-0
9
3.8
4.4
Based on year-on-year comparisons of price paid
for over 75,000 identical products including
promotions and in the proportion that British
households are purchasing them
Total Till Roll
Great Britain Consumer Spend
Total Till Roll
Total Grocers
Total Non-Grocers
12 Weeks to 27 January 2008 12 Weeks to 25 January 2009 % chg
£000s
£000s
32,293,173
33,122,046
2.6
21,304,445
22,662,135
6.4
10,988,728
10,459,911
-4.8
Grocers +6.4%
Non-Grocers -4.8%
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Significant (top 20) grocery switching flows
Tesco
Asda
Waitrose
-ve
Morrisons
M&S
-ve
Somerfield
Sainsbury‘s
Netto
Aldi
Iceland
Switching limited to 11 retailers only
Lidl
RST (grocery) 12we 28 Dec 2008
Significant (top 20) grocery switching flows
Clear movement to the value end of the spectrum
Discount
Retailers
Lidl
Aldi
Asda
Iceland
Premium
Morrisons
Retailers
Tesco
Somerfield
Sainsbury's
Waitrose
M&S
RST (grocery) 12we 25 Jan 2009 (TNS P02)
Switching through price tiers in the Big 4
Trading down a reality, but branded steals from standard OL
Premium
Own Label
Branded
Standard
Own Label
Value Own
Label
Switching limited to Big 4 retailers and 4 tiers
RST (grocery) 12we 25 Jan 2009 (TNS P02)
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Jan 25 2009
Dec 28 2008
Nov 30 2008
Nov 02 2008
Oct 05 2008
Sep 07 2008
Aug 10 2008
Jul 13 2008
Jun 15 2008
May 18 2008
Apr 20 2008
Mar 23 2008
Feb 24 2008
Jan 27 2008
Dec 30 2007
Dec 02 2007
Nov 04 2007
Oct 07 2007
Sep 09 2007
Aug 12 2007
Jul 15 2007
Jun 17 2007
May 20 2007
Apr 22 2007
Mar 25 2007
Feb 25 2007
Jan 28 2007
Total Grocery 4-weekly Targeted Own Label Shares
4
3.5
3
2.5
Premium OL
2
Healthy OL
1.5
1
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Jan 25 2009
Dec 28 2008
Nov 30 2008
Nov 02 2008
Oct 05 2008
Sep 07 2008
Aug 10 2008
Jul 13 2008
Jun 15 2008
May 18 2008
Apr 20 2008
Mar 23 2008
Feb 24 2008
Jan 27 2008
Dec 30 2007
Dec 02 2007
Nov 04 2007
Oct 07 2007
Sep 09 2007
Aug 12 2007
Jul 15 2007
Jun 17 2007
May 20 2007
Apr 22 2007
Mar 25 2007
Feb 25 2007
Jan 28 2007
Total Grocery 4-weekly Targeted Own Label Shares
4
3.5
3
Value OL
2.5
2
Premium OL
1.5
Healthy OL
1
Latest 12-wk % Change
Total Top 4 -10%
Premium Private Label Sales Trends
90
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Tesco Finest
Sainsbury Taste the Difference
Asda Extra Special
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Safeway/MorrisonsThe Best
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0
2001
Sales (Expenditure £m)
80
0
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Jan 25 2009
Sainsbury
Dec 28 2008
Asda
Nov 30 2008
120
Nov 02 2009
Oct 05 2008
Sep 07 2008
Aug 10 2008
Jul 13 2008
Jun 15 2008
May 18 2008
Apr 20 2008
Mar 23 2008
20
Feb 24 2008
40
Jan 27 2008
60
Dec 30 2007
80
Dec 02 2007
Nov 04 2007
Oct 07 2007
Sep 09 2007
Aug 12 2007
Jul 15 2007
Jun 17 2007
May 20 2007
Apr 22 2007
Mar 25 2007
Feb 25 2007
Jan 28 2007
Dec 31 2006
Dec 03 2006
Nov 05 2006
Oct 08 2006
Total Grocery Budget PL Trends - 4-wkly £m
Latest 12-wk % Change
+43%
100
Tesco
+32%
+60%
+92%
Morrisons
Chilled v. Frozen Trends - Value
550
500
450
400
£m
350
300
250
200
150
100
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Frozen Prepared Foods
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Latest 12-wk % Change
Chilled v. Frozen Trends - Value
+3
550
500
450
400
£m
350
300
+9
250
200
150
100
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Chilled Convenience
2003
2004
2005
Frozen Prepared Foods
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
2006
2007
2008
2009
Priorities
Organic
Fairtrade
Provenance
Health
Local Food
Food Miles
The environment
Price
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Key Topics
n
Tesco – Slowing
n
Asda – not just C2DE
n
Sainsbury – Mass/Up/Market
n
Morrisons – Surge
n
Waitrose – The Ethical consumer
n
Discounters – Flocking
n
M&S
n
Home Delivery
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Key Topics
n
Tesco – Slowing
n
Asda – not just C2DE
n
Sainsbury – Mass/Up/Market
n
Morrisons – Surge
n
Waitrose – The Ethical consumer
n
Discounters – Flocking
n
M&S
n
Home Delivery
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Latest Quarter Till Roll Totals - Share of Total Grocers
Tesco
Asda
Sainsbury
Morrisons
31.2
30.7
16.9
17.2
16.3
16.2
11.6
11.9
Total Co-op
4.4
Waitrose
3.9
3.7
Somerfield
3.6
3.3
4.3
Aldi
2.6
Tot Indepts
2.5
2.3
Lidl
2.2
2.3
Iceland
1.8
2.0
0.7
Netto
3.0
0.7
0.4 0.5
Farm Foods
12 w/e 27 Jan 08
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
12 w/e 25 Jan 09
Latest Quarter Till Roll Totals Expenditure Trends
Total Hard Disc
17
Iceland
14
10
Morrisons
Asda
8
Tot Grocers
6
Sainsbury
5
Tesco
5
Total Co-op
3
Tot Indepts
1
Waitrose
Somerfield
12 w/e Jan 25 2008
y/y % Change
1
-1
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Annual Till Roll Totals Expenditure Changes £000s
Tesco
1,581,410
Asda
Morrisons
Sainsbury
Total Hard Disc
1,186,150
884,523
746,430
710,773
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
52 w/e Jan 25 2008
y/y £ Change
Tesco - Penetration vs. Spend
87.9%
1280
1270
1260
Spend £
1250
1240
1230
1220
1210
1200
1190
1180
85
85.5
86
86.5
Penetration %
87
© Worldpanel
division of
TNS 2009 Jan 25 2009
27 x 52
wkly periods
ending
TM
87.5
88
Tesco Demographic Signatures
Till Roll
Outlet Share within Demographic Group - MAT to January
Social Class
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Class AB
Household Size
Class C1
2007
Class C2
Class D
2008
Class E
2009
Housewife Age
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Age under
28
2007
Age 28-34
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1 in HH
2 in HH
2007
3 in HH
4 in HH
2008
5+ in HH
2009
No. of Children
Age 35-44
2008
Age 45-64
Age 65+
2009
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
No Children
2007
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
1 Child HH
2008
2 Child HH
3+ Child HH
2009
Tesco PL Lifestyle Indices
Tesco
Finest
Tesco
Value
“I regard myself as a
connoisseur of food and wine”
150
87
“Price is the most important
factor when buying a product”
80
129
Share indexed on Total Trade – 52 w/e Sep 7 2008
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
52 w/e Sep 07 2008
Shopping Missions - Occasions Index
Tesco Extra
Trolley Part Store
86
Trolley Full Store
148
Basket Category Top Up
51
Basket Category Stock
40
Destination Non Food
Destination Food
38
14
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
52 w/e Sep 07 2008
Shopping Missions - Occasions Index
Tesco Express
Trolley Part Store
Trolley Full Store
54
38
Basket Category Top Up
216
Basket Category Stock
Destination Non Food
225
201
Destination Food
336
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Nov 19 2006
Dec 03 2006
Dec 17 2006
Dec 31 2006
Jan 14 2007
Jan 28 2007
Feb 11 2007
Feb 25 2007
Mar 11 2007
Mar 25 2007
Apr 08 2007
Apr 22 2007
May 06 2007
May 20 2007
Jun 03 2007
Jun 17 2007
Jul 01 2007
Jul 15 2007
Jul 29 2007
Aug 12 2007
Aug 26 2007
Sep 09 2007
Sep 23 2007
Oct 07 2007
Oct 21 2007
Nov 04 2007
Nov 18 2007
Dec 02 2007
Dec 16 2007
Dec 30 2007
Jan 13 2008
Jan 27 2008
Feb 10 2008
Feb 24 2008
Mar 09 2008
Mar 23 2008
Apr 06 2008
Apr 20 2008
May 04 2008
May 18 2008
Jun 01 2008
Jun 15 2008
Jun 29 2008
Jul 13 2008
Jul 27 2008
Aug 10 2008
Aug 24 2008
Sep 07 2008
Sep 21 2008
Oct 05 2008
Oct 19 2008
Nov 02 2008
Nov 16 2008
Nov 30 2008
Dec 14 2008
Dec 28 2008
Jan 11 2009
Jan 25 2009
Tesco Private Label Weekly Sales £m
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Finest
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Nov 19 2006
Dec 03 2006
Dec 17 2006
Dec 31 2006
Jan 14 2007
Jan 28 2007
Feb 11 2007
Feb 25 2007
Mar 11 2007
Mar 25 2007
Apr 08 2007
Apr 22 2007
May 06 2007
May 20 2007
Jun 03 2007
Jun 17 2007
Jul 01 2007
Jul 15 2007
Jul 29 2007
Aug 12 2007
Aug 26 2007
Sep 09 2007
Sep 23 2007
Oct 07 2007
Oct 21 2007
Nov 04 2007
Nov 18 2007
Dec 02 2007
Dec 16 2007
Dec 30 2007
Jan 13 2008
Jan 27 2008
Feb 10 2008
Feb 24 2008
Mar 09 2008
Mar 23 2008
Apr 06 2008
Apr 20 2008
May 04 2008
May 18 2008
Jun 01 2008
Jun 15 2008
Jun 29 2008
Jul 13 2008
Jul 27 2008
Aug 10 2008
Aug 24 2008
Sep 07 2008
Sep 21 2008
Oct 05 2008
Oct 19 2008
Nov 02 2008
Nov 16 2008
Nov 30 2008
Dec 14 2008
Dec 28 2008
Jan 11 2009
Jan 25 2009
Tesco Private Label Weekly Sales £m
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Value
Finest
Tesco Discount Brands
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Average Price per pack in Tesco
Discount similar to promoted standard own label
£ price per pack
1.27
0.91
0.87
Discount
brands
PROMOTED
Standard own
label
1.65
1.35
0.66
Value
FULL PRICE
Standard own
label
RST (grocery) 12we 28 Dec 2008
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
PROMOTED
Brands
FULL PRICE
Brands
Key Topics
n
Tesco – Slowing
n
Asda – not just C2DE
n
Sainsbury – Mass/Up/Market
n
Morrisons – Surge
n
Waitrose – The Ethical consumer
n
Discounters – Flocking
n
M&S
n
Home Delivery
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Latest Quarter Till Roll Totals Expenditure Trends
Total Hard Disc
17
Iceland
14
10
Morrisons
Asda
8
Tot Grocers
6
Sainsbury
5
Tesco
5
Total Co-op
3
Tot Indepts
1
Waitrose
Somerfield
12 w/e Jan 25 2008
y/y % Change
1
-1
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
12 w/e Periods
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
28-Dec-08
25-Jan-09
02-Nov-08
30-Nov-08
05-Oct-08
10-Aug-08
07-Sep-08
15-Jun-08
13-Jul-08
20-Apr-08
18-May-08
24-Feb-08
23-Mar-08
27-Jan-08
02-Dec-07
30-Dec-07
07-Oct-07
04-Nov-07
12-Aug-07
09-Sep-07
17-Jun-07
15-Jul-07
22-Apr-07
20-May-07
25-Mar-07
28-Jan-07
25-Feb-07
03-Dec-06
31-Dec-06
08-Oct-06
05-Nov-06
13-Aug-06
10-Sep-06
16-Jul-06
21-May-06
18-Jun-06
26-Mar-06
23-Apr-06
29-Jan-06
26-Feb-06
04-Dec-05
01-Jan-06
06-Nov-05
11-Sep-05
09-Oct-05
17-Jul-05
14-Aug-05
Asda Year-on-Year Trends - Till Roll £%
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Asda Demographic Signatures
Till Roll
Outlet Share within Demographic Group - MAT to January
Social Class
Household Size
25
25
20
20
15
15
13.9
10
C2DE
Large households
10
5
5
0
Class AB
Class C1
2007
Class C2
Class D
2008
Class E
2009
Housewife Age
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Age under
28
2007
0
1 in HH
2 in HH
3 in HH
2007
4 in HH
2008
5+ in HH
2009
No. of Children
25
20
15
Younger
With children
10
5
Age 28-34
Age 35-44
2008
Age 45-64
Age 65+
2009
0
No Children
2007
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
1 Child HH
2008
2 Child HH
3+ Child HH
2009
Trading Indices - Asda
52 w/e Dec 28 2008
Broad Areas indexed on Total Groceries
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Toiletries
Healthcare
Household
Ambient Groceries
Fresh+Chilled
Alcohol
Frozen
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
120
112
111
101
97
96
93
Year-on-Year Expenditure Trends
Asda
Strong performance in ‘Fresh’
Total Alcohol
12.2
Total Fresh+Chilled
10.1
Total Ambient Groceries
10.0
TOTAL GROCERIES
9.8
Total Frozen
8.7
Total Toiletries
8.4
Total Household
Total Healthcare
7.3
3.2
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
52 w/e Jan 25 2009
% Change
Year-on-Year Expenditure Trends
Organic
Strong
performance in Organic
11
Asda
5
Morrisons
Tot Grocers
-1
Sainsbury
-1
Waitrose
Tesco
-2
52 w/e Jan 25 2009
% Change
-7
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Premium Private Label Sales Trends
12 wk y-o-y trend +6%
30
Still growing premium PL
20
15
10
5
Asda Extra Special
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0
2001
Sales (Expenditure £m)
25
Ap
r -0
20
7
-M
ay
-0
17
-Ju 7
n
15 -07
-Ju
l-0
12
7
-A
ug
-07
09
-S
ep
-0
07
-O 7
c
04 t-07
-N
o
02 v-07
-D
e
30 c-07
-D
ec
-0
27
-Ja 7
n-0
24
8
-F
eb
-0
23
-M 8
a
20 r-08
-A
pr18
08
-M
ay
-0
15
-Ju 8
n
13 -08
-Ju
l-0
10
8
-A
ug
-08
07
-S
ep
-0
05
-O 8
c
02 t-08
-N
o
30 v-08
-N
o
28 v-08
-D
ec
-0
25
-Ja 8
n-0
9
22
-
Period 2 Change - Columns
Asda, Rolling Source of Change in Spend
Return to Switching Gains
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
-50000
12 weeks ending
Category Departures
Category Level Changes
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Shoppers Won
Shoppers Held
Total Switching
Ap
r -0
20
7
-M
ay
-0
17
-Ju 7
n-0
7
15
-Ju
l-0
12
7
-A
ug
-07
09
-S
ep
-0
07
-O 7
ct07
04
-N
o
02 v-07
-D
ec
-07
30
-D
ec
-0
27
-Ja 7
n-0
24
8
-F
eb
-0
23
-M 8
ar08
20
-A
pr08
18
-M
ay
-0 8
15
-Ju
n-0
8
13
-Ju
l-0
10
8
-A
ug
-08
07
-S
ep
-08
05
-O
c
02 t-08
-N
ov
-08
30
-N
o
28 v-08
-D
ec
-08
25
-Ja
n-0
9
22
-
Net switching - Spend
Net Switching Volumes to Asda
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
-10000
-20000
-30000
12 weeks ending
Aldi
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Apr 24 2005
May 22
Jun 19 2005
Jul 17 2005
Aug 14 2005
Sep 11 2005
Oct 09 2005
Nov 06 2005
Dec 04 2005
Jan 01 2006
Jan 29 2006
Feb 26 2006
Mar 26 2006
Apr 23 2006
May 21 2006
Jun 18 2006
Jul 16 2006
Aug 13 2006
Sep 10 2006
Oct 08 2006
Nov 05 2006
Dec 03 2006
Dec 31 2006
Jan 28 2007
Feb 25 2007
Mar 25 2007
Apr 22 2007
May 20 2007
Jun 17 2007
Jul 15 2007
Aug 12 2007
Sep 09 2007
Oct 07 2007
Nov 04 2007
Dec 02 2007
Dec 30 2007
Jan 27 2008
Feb 24 2008
Mar 23 2008
Apr 20 2008
May 18 2008
Jun 15 2008
Jul 13 2008
Aug 10 2009
Sep 07 2008
Oct 05 2008
Nov 02 2008
Nov 30 2008
Dec 28 2008
Jan 25 2009
BOGOF Sales by Outlet £000s
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
Sainsbury
50,000
Tesco
Asda
40,000
Morrisons Tot
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Apr 24 2005
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Jan 25 2009
Dec 28 2008
Nov 30 2008
Nov 02 2008
Oct 05 2008
Sep 07 2008
Aug 10 2009
Jul 13 2008
Jun 15 2008
May 18 2008
Apr 20 2008
Feb 24 2008
Mar 23 2008
Jan 27 2008
Dec 02 2007
Dec 30 2007
Nov 04 2007
Oct 07 2007
Sep 09 2007
Aug 12 2007
Jul 15 2007
Jun 17 2007
May 20 2007
Apr 22 2007
Mar 25 2007
Jan 28 2007
Feb 25 2007
Dec 31 2006
Nov 05 2006
Dec 03 2006
Oct 08 2006
Sep 10 2006
Aug 13 2006
Jul 16 2006
Jun 18 2006
May 21 2006
Apr 23 2006
Mar 26 2006
Feb 26 2006
Jan 29 2006
Jan 01 2006
Dec 04 2005
Nov 06 2005
Oct 09 2005
Sep 11 2005
Aug 14 2005
Jul 17 2005
Jun 19 2005
May 22 2005
BOGOF Sales for the Top 4 Multiples £000s
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Smart price
Own brand
Brown/white bread
Potatoes
Crisps
Oranges
Cola
Baked beans
Sausages
Yoghurt
Eggs
Cornflakes
Frozen peas
Tea bags
Margarine
30p
£0.72
64p (2.5 kilo)
£1.98 (2.5 kilo)
47 p (12 pack)
1.39
40p kg
£0.99 kg
18p 2 litres
£0.39 2 litres
18p can
31p can
48p 8 pack (454g)
£1.88 8 pack (454g)
36p (6x125g)
£0.98 (6x125g)
82p (6)
£1.36 (6)
70p (750g)
£1.14 (750g)
84p (907g)
£1.52 (kg)
28p (80)
£1.29 (80)
21p (500g)
£0.79 (500g)
Basket cost
£5.86
£14.74
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Asda launches "most aggressive ever" Christmas price cuts
The supermarket's offers include:
Wines at 3 for £10, and spirits from £5.
Pork joints reduced to £2 per kg
Christmas puddings at £1
Packs of six mince pies at two for £1
Two litres of Coke at three for £3
Cadbury's selection boxes (normally £2.98) at two for £3
Wednesday, 26 November 2008
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Key Topics
n
Tesco – Slowing
n
Asda – not just C2DE
n
Sainsbury – Mass/Up/Market
n
Morrisons – Surge
n
Waitrose – The Ethical consumer
n
Discounters – Flocking
n
M&S
n
Home Delivery
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Sainsbury
Weekly 3 Point Centred Moving Average
Sainsbury Baseline
Jan 25 2009
Dec 28 2008
Nov 30 2008
Nov 02 2008
Oct 05 2008
Sep 07 2008
Aug 10 2008
Jul 13 2008
Jun 15 2008
May 18 2008
Apr 20 2008
Mar 23 2008
Feb 24 2008
Jan 27 2008
Dec 30 2007
Dec 02 2007
Nov 04 2007
Oct 07 2007
Sep 09 2007
Aug 12 2007
Jul 15 2007
Jun 17 2007
May 20 2007
Apr 22 2007
Mar 25 2007
Feb 25 2007
Jan 28 2007
Dec 31 2006
Dec 03 2006
Nov 05 2006
Oct 08 2006
Sep 10 2006
Aug 13 2006
Jul 16 2006
Jun 18 2006
May 21 2006
Apr 23 2006
Mar 26 2006
Feb 26 2006
Share (Expenditure)
Sainsbury Share of Till Roll Grocers
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
2004
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2005
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2006
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2007
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2008
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2009
2
Price Index
Retailer Price Track - Total Grocery
107
106
105
104
103
102
101
100
Sainsbury
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Total Grocery Budget PL Trends
£% within Outlet
8
7
Asda
6
5
Tesco
4
3
Morrisons
Sainsbury
2
1
0
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Premium Private Label Sales Trends
12 wk y-o-y trend -12%
90
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Tesco Finest
Sainsbury Taste the Difference
Asda Extra Special
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Safeway/MorrisonsThe Best
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0
2001
Sales (Expenditure £m)
80
Trading Indices - Sainsbury
52 w/e Dec 28 2008
Broad Areas indexed on Total Groceries
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Healthcare
Toiletries
Fresh+Chilled
Alcohol
Household
Ambient Groceries
Frozen
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
122
118
110
100
94
91
70
Year-on-Year Expenditure Trends
Sainsbury
Total Frozen
12.2
6.9
Total Healthcare
Total Ambient Groceries
6.2
Total Fresh+Chilled
5.5
TOTAL GROCERIES
5.2
Total Toiletries
4.5
Total Household
Total Alcohol
3.0
1.4
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
52 w/e Jan 25 2009
% Change
Worldpanel Lifestyles - Sainsbury Share Index
I Am Prepared To Pay More For Organic Food
I Regard Myself As A Connoisseur Of Food And Wine
The BBC Is An Institution That I Can Rely On
I Am Prepared To Pay More For Quality Ingredients
I Think Of Myself As A Brand Loyal Consumer
I Feel Good About Buying Fair Trade Products
Country Of Origin Is Important To Me When Choosing Groceries
It Is Worth Paying A Bit More To Shop Where I Can Get In And Out Quickly
I Find It Hard To Spend All The Money That I Earn
I Buy Free Range Products Whenever I Can
I Eat Out Regularly
I Don't Tend To Compromise On Quality If I Can't Find What I Want
I Think We Should All Try To Buy More Fair Trade Products
I Always Pay My Credit Card Bills In Full
I Try To Buy Environmentally Friendly Products
I Read The Ingredients On The Pack Before Buying
I Never Go Out Without Putting On My Makeup
It Is Important To Me Which Brand I Buy
I Don't Mind Paying For Quality
I/My Partner Enjoy Cooking To Entertain Friends And Family
Till Roll Share indexed on All Shoppers – 52 w/e Nov 30 2008
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
129
124
121
119
119
119
118
117
117
117
116
115
114
114
114
114
113
113
112
111
Fairtrade
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Dec 28 2008
Nov 30 2008
Nov 02 2008
Oct 05 2008
Sep 07 2008
Aug 10 2008
Jul 13 2008
Jun 15 2008
May 18 2008
Apr 20 2008
Mar 23 2008
Feb 24 2008
Jan 27 2008
Dec 30 2007
Dec 02 2007
20
Nov 04 2007
Oct 07 2007
Sep 09 2007
Aug 12 2007
Jul 15 2007
Jun 17 2007
May 20 2007
Apr 22 2007
Mar 25 2007
Feb 25 2007
Jan 28 2007
Dec 31 2006
Dec 03 2006
Nov 05 2006
Oct 08 2006
Sep 10 2006
Aug 13 2006
Jul 16 2006
Jun 18 2006
May 21 2006
Apr 23 2006
Mar 26 2006
Feb 26 2006
Jan 29 2006
Jan 01 2006
Dec 04 2005
Nov 06 2005
Oct 09 2005
Fairtrade Prepacked Bananas Market Share
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Total Grocers
10
0
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Dec 28 2008
Nov 30 2008
Nov 02 2008
Oct 05 2008
Sep 07 2008
Aug 10 2008
Jul 13 2008
Jun 15 2008
May 18 2008
Apr 20 2008
Mar 23 2008
Feb 24 2008
90
Jan 27 2008
Dec 30 2007
Dec 02 2007
20
Nov 04 2007
Oct 07 2007
Sep 09 2007
Aug 12 2007
Jul 15 2007
Jun 17 2007
May 20 2007
Apr 22 2007
Mar 25 2007
Feb 25 2007
Jan 28 2007
Dec 31 2006
Dec 03 2006
Nov 05 2006
Oct 08 2006
Sep 10 2006
Aug 13 2006
Jul 16 2006
Jun 18 2006
May 21 2006
Apr 23 2006
Mar 26 2006
Feb 26 2006
Jan 29 2006
Jan 01 2006
Dec 04 2005
Nov 06 2005
Oct 09 2005
Fairtrade Prepacked Bananas Market Share
100
Sainsbury
80
70
60
50
40
30
Total Grocers
10
0
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Dec 28 2008
Nov 30 2008
Nov 02 2008
Oct 05 2008
Sep 07 2008
Aug 10 2008
Jul 13 2008
Jun 15 2008
May 18 2008
Apr 20 2008
Mar 23 2008
Feb 24 2008
Waitrose
Jan 27 2008
Dec 30 2007
Dec 02 2007
20
Nov 04 2007
Oct 07 2007
Sep 09 2007
Aug 12 2007
Jul 15 2007
Jun 17 2007
May 20 2007
Apr 22 2007
Mar 25 2007
Feb 25 2007
Jan 28 2007
Dec 31 2006
Dec 03 2006
90
Nov 05 2006
Oct 08 2006
Sep 10 2006
Aug 13 2006
Jul 16 2006
Jun 18 2006
May 21 2006
Apr 23 2006
Mar 26 2006
Feb 26 2006
Jan 29 2006
Jan 01 2006
Dec 04 2005
Nov 06 2005
Oct 09 2005
Fairtrade Prepacked Bananas Market Share
100
Sainsbury
80
70
60
50
40
30
Total Grocers
10
0
Free Range Eggs
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Hens Eggs - Pricing Trends
Ave. Price per Egg
34p
32p
30p
28p
26p
24p
22p
20p
18p
16p
14p
12p
10p
8p
6p
Non-Free Range
Free Range
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Organic
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
4p
Hens Eggs - Organic Share Trends
Share - £%
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Organic
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0
Hens Eggs - 'Free Range' Share Trends
Share - £%
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
30
Free Range
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
28
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Dec 28 2008
Nov 30 2008
Nov 02 2008
Oct 05 2008
Sep 07 2008
Aug 10 2008
Jul 13 2008
Jun 15 2008
May 18 2008
Apr 20 2008
Mar 23 2008
Feb 24 2008
Jan 27 2008
Dec 30 2007
Dec 02 2007
Nov 04 2007
Oct 07 2007
Sep 09 2007
Aug 12 2007
Jul 15 2007
Jun 17 2007
May 20 2007
Apr 22 2007
Mar 25 2007
Feb 25 2007
Jan 28 2007
Dec 31 2006
Dec 03 2006
Nov 05 2006
Oct 08 2006
Sep 10 2006
Aug 13 2006
Jul 16 2006
Jun 18 2006
May 21 2006
Apr 23 2006
Mar 26 2006
Feb 26 2006
Jan 29 2006
Free-range Eggs Market Share
100
90
80
70
60
50
Total Grocers
40
30
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Dec 28 2008
Nov 30 2008
Nov 02 2008
Oct 05 2008
Sep 07 2008
Aug 10 2008
Jul 13 2008
Jun 15 2008
May 18 2008
Apr 20 2008
Mar 23 2008
Feb 24 2008
Jan 27 2008
Dec 30 2007
Dec 02 2007
Nov 04 2007
70
Oct 07 2007
Sep 09 2007
Aug 12 2007
Jul 15 2007
Jun 17 2007
May 20 2007
Apr 22 2007
Mar 25 2007
Feb 25 2007
Jan 28 2007
Dec 31 2006
Dec 03 2006
Nov 05 2006
Oct 08 2006
Sep 10 2006
Aug 13 2006
Jul 16 2006
Jun 18 2006
May 21 2006
Apr 23 2006
Mar 26 2006
Feb 26 2006
Jan 29 2006
Free-range Eggs Market Share
100
90
80
Sainsbury
60
50
Total Grocers
40
30
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Dec 28 2008
Nov 30 2008
Nov 02 2008
Oct 05 2008
Sep 07 2008
Aug 10 2008
Jul 13 2008
Jun 15 2008
May 18 2008
Apr 20 2008
Mar 23 2008
Feb 24 2008
Jan 27 2008
Dec 30 2007
Dec 02 2007
Nov 04 2007
70
Oct 07 2007
Sep 09 2007
Aug 12 2007
Jul 15 2007
Jun 17 2007
May 20 2007
Apr 22 2007
Mar 25 2007
Feb 25 2007
Jan 28 2007
Dec 31 2006
Dec 03 2006
Nov 05 2006
Oct 08 2006
Sep 10 2006
Aug 13 2006
Jul 16 2006
Jun 18 2006
May 21 2006
Apr 23 2006
Mar 26 2006
Feb 26 2006
Jan 29 2006
Free-range Eggs Market Share
100
Waitrose
90
80
Sainsbury
60
50
Total Grocers
40
30
Sainsbury Demographic Signatures
Till Roll
Outlet Share within Demographic Group - MAT to January
Social Class
Household Size
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
Class AB
Class C1
2007
Class C2
Class D
2008
Class E
0
1 in HH
2009
Housewife Age
2 in HH
2007
3 in HH
4 in HH
2008
5+ in HH
2009
No. of Children
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
Age under
28
2007
Age 28-34
Age 35-44
2008
Age 45-64
Age 65+
2009
0
No Children
2007
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
1 Child HH
2008
2 Child HH
3+ Child HH
2009
Ap
r- 0
7
Ma
y-0
17
-Ju 7
n
15 -07
-Ju
l-0
12
7
-A
ug
-07
09
-S
ep
-0
07
-O 7
c
04 t-07
-N
o
02 v-0 7
-D
ec
-07
30
-D
ec
-0
27
-Ja 7
n-0
24
8
-F
eb
-0
23
-M 8
ar0
20
-A 8
pr08
18
-M
ay
-0
15
-Ju 8
n
13 -08
-Ju
l-0
10
8
-A
ug
-08
07
-S
ep
-0
05
-O 8
c
02 t-08
-N
o
30 v-0 8
-N
o
28 v-0 8
-D
ec
-0
25
-Ja 8
n-0
9
20
-
22
-
Net switching - Spend
Net Switching to Sainsbury from Waitrose
15000
10000
5000
0
-5000
-10000
-15000
12 weeks ending
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Ap
r- 0
20
7
-M
ay
-0
17
-Ju 7
n-0
7
15
-Ju
l-0
12
7
-A
ug
-07
09
-S
ep
-07
07
-O
c
04 t-07
-N
o
02 v-0 7
-D
e
30 c-07
-D
ec
-0
27
-Ja 7
n-0
24
8
-F
eb
-0
23
-M 8
ar0
20
-A 8
pr08
18
-M
ay
-0
15
-Ju 8
n-0
8
13
-Ju
l-0
10
8
-A
ug
-08
07
-S
ep
-0
05
-O 8
c
02 t-08
-N
ov
-0 8
30
-N
o
28 v-0 8
-D
ec
-0
25
-Ja 8
n-0
9
22
-
Net switching - Spend
Net Switching to Sainsbury from M & S
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
-5000
12 weeks ending
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Key Topics
n
Tesco – Slowing
n
Asda – not just C2DE
n
Sainsbury – Mass/Up/Market
n
Morrisons – Surge
n
Waitrose – The Ethical consumer
n
Discounters – Flocking
n
M&S
n
Home Delivery
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
-5
Store sell-offs
-10
-15
-20
12 w/e Periods
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
28-Dec-08
25-Jan-09
02-Nov-08
30-Nov-08
07-Sep-08
05-Oct-08
15-Jun-08
13-Jul-08
10-Aug-08
Now stable
20-Apr-08
18-May-08
24-Feb-08
23-Mar-08
30-Dec-07
27-Jan-08
04-Nov-07
02-Dec-07
09-Sep-07
07-Oct-07
15-Jul-07
12-Aug-07
22-Apr-07
20-May-07
17-Jun-07
25-Feb-07
25-Mar-07
31-Dec-06
28-Jan-07
0
05-Nov-06
03-Dec-06
10-Sep-06
08-Oct-06
16-Jul-06
13-Aug-06
21-May-06
18-Jun-06
26-Mar-06
23-Apr-06
01-Jan-06
29-Jan-06
26-Feb-06
06-Nov-05
04-Dec-05
11-Sep-05
09-Oct-05
17-Jul-05
14-Aug-05
Morrisons+Safeway Year-on-Year Trends - Till Roll £%
10
5
Sustained
growth
Net New/Lost
Repeat
Total
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
25 Jan 09
28 Dec 08
30 Nov 08
02 Nov 08
05 Oct 08
07 Sep 08
10 Aug 08
13 Jul 08
15 Jun 08
18 May 08
20 Apr 08
23 Mar 08
24 Feb 08
27 Jan 08
30 Dec 07
02 Dec 07
04 Nov 07
07 Oct 07
09 Sep 07
12 Aug 07
15 Jul 07
17 Jun 07
20 May 07
22 Apr 07
Actual Contribution (000,000s)
Morrisons Growth from both existing and new shoppers
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Nov 19 2006
Dec 03 2006
Dec 17 2006
Dec 31 2006
Jan 14 2007
Jan 28 2007
Feb 11 2007
Feb 25 2007
Mar 11 2007
Mar 25 2007
Apr 08 2007
Apr 22 2007
May 06 2007
May 20 2007
Jun 03 2007
Jun 17 2007
Jul 01 2007
Jul 15 2007
Jul 29 2007
Aug 12 2007
Aug 26 2007
Sep 09 2007
Sep 23 2007
Oct 07 2007
Oct 21 2007
Nov 04 2007
Nov 18 2007
Dec 02 2007
Dec 16 2007
Dec 30 2007
Jan 13 2008
Jan 27 2008
Feb 10 2008
Feb 24 2008
Mar 09 2008
Mar 23 2008
Apr 06 2008
Apr 20 2008
May 04 2008
May 18 2008
Jun 01 2008
Jun 15 2008
Jun 29 2008
Jul 13 2008
Jul 27 2008
Aug 10 2008
Aug 24 2008
Sep 07 2008
Sep 21 2008
Oct 05 2008
Oct 19 2008
Nov 02 2008
Nov 16 2008
Nov 30 2008
Dec 14 2008
Dec 28 2008
Jan 11 2009
Jan 25 2009
Morrisons Private Label Weekly Sales £m
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
The Best
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Nov 19 2006
Dec 03 2006
Dec 17 2006
Dec 31 2006
Jan 14 2007
Jan 28 2007
Feb 11 2007
Feb 25 2007
Mar 11 2007
Mar 25 2007
Apr 08 2007
Apr 22 2007
May 06 2007
May 20 2007
Jun 03 2007
Jun 17 2007
Jul 01 2007
Jul 15 2007
Jul 29 2007
Aug 12 2007
Aug 26 2007
Sep 09 2007
Sep 23 2007
Oct 07 2007
Oct 21 2007
Nov 04 2007
Nov 18 2007
Dec 02 2007
Dec 16 2007
Dec 30 2007
Jan 13 2008
Jan 27 2008
Feb 10 2008
Feb 24 2008
Mar 09 2008
Mar 23 2008
Apr 06 2008
Apr 20 2008
May 04 2008
May 18 2008
Jun 01 2008
Jun 15 2008
Jun 29 2008
Jul 13 2008
Jul 27 2008
Aug 10 2008
Aug 24 2008
Sep 07 2008
Sep 21 2008
Oct 05 2008
Oct 19 2008
Nov 02 2008
Nov 16 2008
Nov 30 2008
Dec 14 2008
Dec 28 2008
Jan 11 2009
Jan 25 2009
Morrisons Private Label Weekly Sales £m
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Value
The Best
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Latest Quarter Till Roll Totals Expenditure Trends
Total Hard Disc
17
Iceland
14
10
Morrisons
8
Asda
Tot Grocers
6
Sainsbury
5
Tesco
5
Total Co-op
3
Tot Indepts
1
Waitrose
Somerfield
12 w/e Jan 25 2008
y/y % Change
1
-1
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Trading Indices - Morrisons
52 w/e Dec 28 2008
Market Sectors indexed on Total Groceries
Fresh Fish
Chilled Bakery Products
Canned Goods
Fresh Meat
Fresh Poultry+Game
Biscuits
Savoury Home Cooking
Pet Care
Hot Beverages
Haircare
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
124
117
115
111
108
105
105
104
104
103
Year-on-Year Expenditure Trends
Morrisons
Total Toiletries
12.1
10.7
Total Fresh+Chilled
Total Healthcare
10.4
Total Ambient Groceries
10.3
TOTAL GROCERIES
9.5
Total Alcohol
9.4
Total Frozen
Total Household
7.0
1.7
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
52 w/e Dec 28 2008
% Change
The Morrisons Difference
Morrisons Yorkshire Shoppers Lifestyle Statements:I Like To Use The Café/Restaurant
156
It Has A Butchery Counter
148
I Can Use The Childcare Facilities
143
It Sells Cheap Petrol
132
There Is A Fresh Fish Counter
131
It Has A Delicatessen
129
It Sells Lottery Tickets
129
It's Nearest My Home
128
Prices Are Always Low
125
It Has An In-Store Bakery
124
I Like The Layout Of The Store
123
It Offers Cashpoints, Dry Cleaning etc
You Can Easily Find What You Want
Outlet Share Index 52 w/e Apr 20 2008
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
121
119
Key Topics
n
Tesco – Slowing
n
Asda – not just C2DE
n
Sainsbury – Mass/Up/Market
n
Morrisons – Surge
n
Waitrose – The Ethical consumer
n
Discounters – Flocking
n
M&S
n
Home Delivery
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
0
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Waitrose
Weekly 3 Point Centred Moving Average
Waitrose Baseline
Jan 25 2009
Dec 28 2008
Nov 30 2008
Nov 02 2008
Oct 05 2008
Sep 07 2008
Aug 10 2008
Jul 13 2008
Jun 15 2008
May 18 2008
Apr 20 2008
Mar 23 2008
Feb 24 2008
Jan 27 2008
Dec 30 2007
Dec 02 2007
Nov 04 2007
Oct 07 2007
Sep 09 2007
Aug 12 2007
Jul 15 2007
Jun 17 2007
May 20 2007
Apr 22 2007
Mar 25 2007
Feb 25 2007
Jan 28 2007
Dec 31 2006
Dec 03 2006
Nov 05 2006
Oct 08 2006
Sep 10 2006
Aug 13 2006
Jul 16 2006
Jun 18 2006
May 21 2006
Apr 23 2006
Mar 26 2006
Feb 26 2006
Share (Expenditure)
Waitrose Share of Till Roll Grocers
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
Worldpanel Lifestyles - Waitrose Share Index
I Regard Myself As A Connoisseur Of Food And Wine
I Am Prepared To Pay More For Organic Food
Country Of Origin Is Important To Me When Choosing Groceries
It Is Worth Paying A Bit More To Shop Where I Can Get In And Out Quickly
The BBC Is An Institution That I Can Rely On
I Look Out For Supermarkets That Are Less Crowded And Less Stressful
I Try To Support Regional Food Producers
I Am Prepared To Pay More For Quality Ingredients
I Eat Out Regularly
I Believe In A Holistic Approach To Medical Treatment
I Always Pay My Credit Card Bills In Full
I Buy Free Range Products Whenever I Can
I Feel Good About Buying Fair Trade Products
I Try To Buy Local Produce Whenever I Can
The Brand Name Of The Clothes I Wear Is Important To Me
I Don't Tend To Compromise On Quality If I Can't Find What I Want
I Think Of Myself As A Brand Loyal Consumer
I'm Prepared To Pay More For Products That Make Life Easier
I/My Partner Enjoy Cooking To Entertain Friends And Family
It Is Important To Me Which Brand I Buy
Till Roll Share indexed on All Shoppers – 52 w/e Nov 30 2008
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
223
191
168
162
162
160
159
156
151
146
145
145
141
141
141
140
140
140
139
139
Organic
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Total Organic Products
£m’s
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
Annualised Value = £1,300m
Latest 12 weeks 18% decline
30
20
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0
1998
10
Total Organics-£ Spend by Frequency Group
13% of Organic buyers purchase once during the year & account for only 1% of spend
12% of Organic buyers represent 63% of money spent on Organics
27+
12
17
13-26 Occasions
63
19
7-12 Occasions
2-6 Occasions
39
20
1 Occasion
10
13
7
1
% Homes Buying
% Spend
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
52 w/e Nov 2 2008
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Organic Indices
Waitrose
444
Sainsbury
151
133
M&S
Tot Grocers
100
Tesco
99
67
Asda
62
Total Co-op
Morrisons
51
43
Tot Indepts
39
Somerfield
Lidl
24
Aldi
21
Netto
7
Farm Foods
4
Iceland
Share of Organic Indexed on
Total Grocery Share - 52 w/e Dec 28 2008
0
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
I Visit Different Shops For The Best Prices
Netto
150
Lidl
136
Aldi
129
Farm Foods
127
Iceland
124
Somerfield
115
Morrisons
105
Total Co-op
100
Tot Indepts
99
Tesco
95
Asda
95
Sainsbury
94
M&S
93
Waitrose
89
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Outlet Share Index
52 w/e Nov 30 2008
Trading Indices - Waitrose
Broad Area
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Fresh+Chilled
Ambient Groceries
Alcohol
Household
Frozen
Toiletries
Healthcare
Market
128
88
86
84
55
49
42
Market Sector
Fresh Fish
Chilled Bakery Products
Chilled Drinks
Chilled Convenience
Fruit+Veg+Salads
Fresh Meat
Fresh Poultry+Game
Pickle+Tbl Sce+Condiment
Packet Breakfast
Frozen Confectionery
Hot Beverages
Sweet Home Cooking
52 w/e Dec 28 2008
228
163
160
141
138
123
121
108
107
107
106
105
Fresh Stuffing
Chilled Gravy+Stock
Chilled Olives
Chilled Prepared Fish
Fresh Soup
Chilled Rice
Chilled Pate+Paste+Spread
Chilled Cooking Sauces
Chilled Vegetarian
Vegetable in Jar
Chilled One Shot Drinks
Fresh Other Meat & Offal
Wet/Smoked Fish
Ambient Olives
Chilled Sausage Meat
Chilled Burgers+Grills
Herbal Tea
Tonic Water
Honey
Vinegar
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
1382
749
556
410
351
299
281
274
273
265
241
240
239
239
228
227
218
216
201
196
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Key Topics
n
Tesco – Slowing
n
Asda – not just C2DE
n
Sainsbury – Mass/Up/Market
n
Morrisons – Surge
n
Waitrose – The Ethical consumer
n
Discounters – Flocking
n
M&S
n
Home Delivery
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Long-Term Share of Till Roll Grocers
4
2
1
Aldi
Lidl
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Netto
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
0
1993
Share (Expenditure)
3
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Kwik Save
Weekly 3 Point Centred Moving Average
Kwik Save Baseline
Jan 25 2009
Dec 28 2008
Nov 30 2008
Nov 02 2008
Oct 05 2008
Sep 07 2008
Aug 10 2008
Jul 13 2008
Jun 15 2008
May 18 2008
Apr 20 2008
Mar 23 2008
Feb 24 2008
Jan 27 2008
Dec 30 2007
Dec 02 2007
Nov 04 2007
Oct 07 2007
Sep 09 2007
Aug 12 2007
Jul 15 2007
Jun 17 2007
May 20 2007
Apr 22 2007
Mar 25 2007
Feb 25 2007
Jan 28 2007
Dec 31 2006
Dec 03 2006
Nov 05 2006
Oct 08 2006
Sep 10 2006
Aug 13 2006
Jul 16 2006
Jun 18 2006
May 21 2006
Apr 23 2006
Mar 26 2006
Feb 26 2006
Share (Expenditure)
Kwik Save Share of Till Roll Grocers
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Kwik Save + Discounters
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
28-Dec-08
02-Nov-08
30-Nov-08
05-Oct-08
07-Sep-08
13-Jul-08
10-Aug-08
15-Jun-08
18-May-08
23-Mar-08
20-Apr-08
24-Feb-08
27-Jan-08
02-Dec-07
30-Dec-07
04-Nov-07
07-Oct-07
12-Aug-07
09-Sep-07
15-Jul-07
17-Jun-07
22-Apr-07
20-May-07
25-Mar-07
28-Jan-07
25-Feb-07
31-Dec-06
03-Dec-06
08-Oct-06
05-Nov-06
10-Sep-06
13-Aug-06
18-Jun-06
16-Jul-06
21-May-06
23-Apr-06
26-Feb-06
26-Mar-06
29-Jan-06
01-Jan-06
06-Nov-05
04-Dec-05
09-Oct-05
11-Sep-05
17-Jul-05
14-Aug-05
19-Jun-05
Kwik Save + Discounters Combined Market Share £%
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Net New/Lost
Repeat
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Total
25 Jan 09
28 Dec 08
30 Nov 08
02 Nov 08
05 Oct 08
07 Sep 08
10 Aug 08
13 Jul 08
15 Jun 08
18 May 08
20 Apr 08
23 Mar 08
24 Feb 08
27 Jan 08
30 Dec 07
02 Dec 07
04 Nov 07
07 Oct 07
09 Sep 07
12 Aug 07
15 Jul 07
17 Jun 07
20 May 07
22 Apr 07
Actual Contribution (000,000s)
Aldi
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
Net New/Lost
Repeat
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Total
25 Jan 09
28 Dec 08
30 Nov 08
02 Nov 08
05 Oct 08
07 Sep 08
10 Aug 08
13 Jul 08
15 Jun 08
18 May 08
20 Apr 08
23 Mar 08
24 Feb 08
27 Jan 08
30 Dec 07
02 Dec 07
04 Nov 07
07 Oct 07
09 Sep 07
12 Aug 07
15 Jul 07
17 Jun 07
20 May 07
22 Apr 07
Actual Contribution (000,000s)
Lidl
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
New Aldi Shopper Indices - 12 w/e Dec 28 2008
144
128
126
122
117
Hwife Aged under
28
Hwife Aged 28-34
Hwife Aged 35-44
Hwife aged 45-64
Housewife Age
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Hwife Aged 65+
New Aldi Shopper Indices - 12 w/e Dec 28 2008
145
128
122
111
No Children
1 Child HHs
2 Child HHs
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
3+ Child HHs
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Co-op buys Somerfield for £1.57bn
The Co-operative Group (Co-op), the UK's fifth largest
supermarket chain, has agreed to buy rival Somerfield.
The Co-op said the £1.57bn ($3.1bn) purchase would strengthen its
position in the UK retail market.
Manchester-based Co-op, a mutual outfit run on behalf of its 2.5 million
members, also said the deal was done on a cash-free and debt-free
basis.
With more than 4,300 UK retail outlets, it employs 85,000 people.
Bristol-based Somerfield has about 900 stores.
The latest figures from research firm TNS, show that in the 12 weeks to
the middle of June, the Co-op had 4.4% of the UK grocery market, and
Somerfield 3.7%.
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Co-op / Somerfield Store Sales
n
Morrisons
34
n
Waitrose
13
n
Tesco
7
n
Musgrave
6
n
Spar
6
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Fairtrade Indices
Total Co-op
362
Waitrose
292
278
Sainsbury
M&S
165
Tot Grocers
100
Asda
45
Morrisons
45
Tesco
35
28
Somerfield
Lidl
13
Tot Indepts
10
Farm Foods
6
Netto
4
Aldi
1
Iceland
0
Share of Fairtrade Indexed on
Total Grocery Share - 52 w/e Dec 28 2008
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Key Topics
n
Tesco – Slowing
n
Asda – not just C2DE
n
Sainsbury – Mass/Up/Market
n
Morrisons – Surge
n
Waitrose – The Ethical consumer
n
Discounters – Flocking
n
M&S
n
Home Delivery
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
0
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
M&S
Weekly 3 Point Centred Moving Average
M & S Baseline
Jan 25 2009
Dec 28 2008
Nov 30 2008
Nov 02 2008
Oct 05 2008
Sep 07 2008
Aug 10 2008
Jul 13 2008
Jun 15 2008
May 18 2008
Apr 20 2008
Mar 23 2008
Feb 24 2008
Jan 27 2008
Dec 30 2007
Dec 02 2007
Nov 04 2007
Oct 07 2007
Sep 09 2007
Aug 12 2007
Jul 15 2007
Jun 17 2007
May 20 2007
Apr 22 2007
Mar 25 2007
Feb 25 2007
Jan 28 2007
Dec 31 2006
Dec 03 2006
Nov 05 2006
Oct 08 2006
Sep 10 2006
Aug 13 2006
Jul 16 2006
Jun 18 2006
May 21 2006
Apr 23 2006
Mar 26 2006
Feb 26 2006
Share (Expenditure)
M&S Share of Retailer ShareTrack Grocers
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
M&S
Weekly 3 Point Centred Moving Average
Jan 25 2009
Dec 28 2008
Nov 30 2008
Nov 02 2008
Oct 05 2008
Sep 07 2008
Aug 10 2008
Jul 13 2008
Jun 15 2008
May 18 2008
Apr 20 2008
Mar 23 2008
Feb 24 2008
Jan 27 2008
Dec 30 2007
Dec 02 2007
Nov 04 2007
Oct 07 2007
Sep 09 2007
Aug 12 2007
Jul 15 2007
Jun 17 2007
May 20 2007
Apr 22 2007
Mar 25 2007
Feb 25 2007
Jan 28 2007
Dec 31 2006
Dec 03 2006
Nov 05 2006
Oct 08 2006
Sep 10 2006
Aug 13 2006
Jul 16 2006
Jun 18 2006
May 21 2006
Apr 23 2006
Mar 26 2006
Feb 26 2006
Sales (Expenditure)
M&S Retailer ShareTrack Sales £000s
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
Trading Indices – M&S
52 w/e Dec 28 2008
Broad Area
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Fresh+Chilled
Ambient Groceries
Alcohol
Frozen
Toiletries
Household
Healthcare
Market
166
75
61
33
21
11
1
Market Sector
Chilled Convenience
Chilled Bakery Products
Fresh Fish
Fresh Poultry+Game
Biscuits
Ambient Bakery Products
Fruit+Veg+Salads
Take Home Confectionery
Chilled Drinks
Frozen Fish
Fresh Meat
Take Home Savouries
436
379
334
168
149
141
129
123
109
99
87
85
Fresh Stuffing
Chilled Gravy+Stock
Mens Mass Fragrances
Seasonal Biscuits
Chilled Prepared Fish
Chilled Ready Meals
Chilled Rice
Chilled Sausage Meat
Chilled Desserts
Ambient Christmas Pudding
Chilled Prepared Salad
Chilled Prepared Frt+Veg
Chilled Cakes
Chilled One Shot Drinks
Chilled Burgers+Grills
Other Chilled Convenience
Ambient Vgtrn Products
P/P Fresh Meat+Veg+Pastry
Special Treats
Canned Hot Meats
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
5233
1350
1309
1178
1166
997
725
640
634
546
510
505
472
441
427
386
377
376
367
353
Share of Total Grocers Fresh+Chilled
Tesco
Sainsbury
Asda
Morrisons
31.2
30.9
18.8
18.3
15.6
15.8
12.2
M&S
12.5
6.5
6.0
5.5
Waitrose
5.2
Total Co-op
4.4
4.3
Somerfield
4.0
4.0
Aldi
1.7
2.3
Lidl
1.8
2.0
Iceland
1.3
1.4
Tot Indepts
1.4
1.4
Netto
0.6 0.6
Farm Foods
0.2 0.2
52 w/e 30 Dec 07
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
52 w/e 28 Dec 08
Trended Loyalty Breakdown
Waitrose %
M&S%
100%
80%
60%
40%
51.6
54.2
53.8
20%
17.9
15.6
13.8
30-Dec-07
28-Dec-08
0%
31-Dec-06
30-Dec-07
28-Dec-08 52 w/e periods 31-Dec-06
High Loyal (>50%)
Medium Loyal (>20%)
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Low Loyal (>0%)
Key Topics
n
Tesco – Slowing
n
Asda – not just C2DE
n
Sainsbury – Mass/Up/Market
n
Morrisons – Surge
n
Waitrose – The Ethical consumer
n
Discounters – Flocking
n
M&S
n
Home Delivery
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
0
Tesco Internet
Sainsbury Internet
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Asda Internet
Weekly 3 Point Centred Moving Average
Waitrose+Ocado Internet
Jan 25 2009
Dec 28 2008
Nov 30 2008
Nov 02 2008
Oct 05 2008
Sep 07 2008
Aug 10 2008
Jul 13 2008
Jun 15 2008
May 18 2008
Apr 20 2008
Mar 23 2008
Feb 24 2008
Jan 27 2008
Dec 30 2007
Dec 02 2007
Nov 04 2007
Oct 07 2007
Sep 09 2007
Aug 12 2007
Jul 15 2007
Jun 17 2007
May 20 2007
Apr 22 2007
Mar 25 2007
Feb 25 2007
Jan 28 2007
Dec 31 2006
Dec 03 2006
Nov 05 2006
Oct 08 2006
Sep 10 2006
Aug 13 2006
Jul 16 2006
Jun 18 2006
May 21 2006
Apr 23 2006
Mar 26 2006
Feb 26 2006
Share (Expenditure)
Home Delivery Share of Till Roll Grocers
2.4
2.2
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Internet Demographic Signatures
Till Roll
Outlet Share within Demographic Group - MAT to November
Social Class
Household Size
5
6
4
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
Class AB
Class C1
2006
Class C2
Class D
2007
Class E
2008
Housewife Age
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Age under
28
2006
Age 28-34
0
1 in HH
2 in HH
2006
3 in HH
4 in HH
2007
5+ in HH
2008
No. of Children
Age 35-44
2007
Age 45-64
Age 65+
2008
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
No Children
2006
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
1 Child HH
2007
2 Child HH
3+ Child HH
2008
Internet Grocery
Lifestage Signatures
Outlet Share of Grocers within
Demographic Group
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Pre-Family
Young
Family 0-4
Years
Middle
Family 5-9
Years
52 w/e Nov 05 2006
Family 10+
Years
Older
Dependents
52 w/e Nov 04 2007
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Empty
Nesters
52 w/e Nov 02 2008
Retired
Grocery Internet
Household Income Signatures
Outlet Share within
Demographic Group
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
£0 - £9999
pa
£10000 £19999 pa
£20000 £29999 pa
52 w/e Nov 05 2006
£30000 £39999 pa
£40000 £49999 pa
£50000 £59999 pa
52 w/e Nov 04 2007
£60000 £69999 pa
£70000 +
52 w/e Nov 02 2008
Grocery Internet
Council Tax Band Signatures
Outlet Share within
Demographic Group
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Band A
Band B
Band C
52 w/e Nov 05 2006
Band D
52 w/e Nov 04 2007
Band E
Band F
52 w/e Nov 02 2008
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Band G+H
Till Roll - Duplication by Tesco Internet Buyers
Waitrose Internet
3.0
Asda Internet
8.5
Sainsbury Internet
Tesco
500
447
5.4
415
71.7
110
Waitrose
9.2
88
Sainsbury
37.2
85
Asda
36.7
80
Morrisons
24.7
Buyers also Buying
64
Duplication Index
8 w/e Jan 25 2008
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Till Roll - Duplication by Sainsbury Internet Buyers
Waitrose Internet
4.1
Asda Internet
8.0
Tesco Internet
Sainsbury
Asda
Morrisons
421
19.6
408
75.0
171
Waitrose
Tesco
683
12.0
50.8
115
78
28.8
21.8
Buyers also Buying
62
57
Duplication Index
8 w/e Jan 25 2008
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Reminders
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Reminders
Tesco
Slowing
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Reminders
Tesco
Slowing
not
just
C2DE
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Reminders
Tesco
Slowing
not
just
C2DE
Massmarket
Upmarket
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Reminders
Tesco
Slowing
not
just
C2DE
Morrisons
Surge
Massmarket
Upmarket
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Reminders
Tesco
Slowing
not
just
C2DE
The
Ethical
Consumer
Morrisons
Surge
Massmarket
Upmarket
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Reminders
Tesco
Slowing
Flocking
not
just
C2DE
The
Ethical
Consumer
Morrisons
Surge
Massmarket
Upmarket
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Reminders
Tesco
Slowing
Flocking
not
just
C2DE
The
Ethical
Consumer
Morrisons
Surge
Massmarket
Upmarket
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Reminders
Tesco
Slowing
Flocking
not
just
C2DE
The
Ethical
Consumer
Morrisons
Surge
Massmarket
Upmarket
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Thank you
ed.garner
@tns-global.com
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009