Future protein supply for the EU
- a U.S. soybean view
David Green
Producing For Tomorrow’s Market
Irish Poultry and Egg Conference
Monaghan
November 4, 2008
The EU Livestock & Feed Industries Rely on Imported Soybeans and
Soybean Meal to Supply 73% of Protein Meal Needs
EU Consumption1 of Protein Meal
Soybean Meal 2 = 35,352 thousand metric tons
Rapeseed Meal = 7,274 thousand metric tons
Fish Meal = 1,318 thousand metric tons
Other 3 = 4,778 thousand metric tons
Soybean
Meal - 73%
Rapeseed
Meal - 15%
Fish
Meal - 3%
Other - 9%
1 Based
on 44% crude protein equivalent to account
for differing protein levels of meal
2 From imported soybeans and soybean meal
3 Includes meal from sunflowers, copra, cottonseed,
peanuts, palm kernel, and other protein meal
sources
Source: American Soybean Association based on
U.S. Department of Agriculture data for EU Protein
Meal Consumption 2007/2008
MMT
Soybean Production
U.S., Argentina, Brazil & China
100
86.8
85.0
90
83.4
79.8
78.7
75.1
75.0
80
70.4
66.8
70
62.5
61.0
59.0
57.0
60
53.0
52.0
51.0
50.5
48.8
47
50
43.5
40.5
39.5
39
35.5
40
33
30
27.8
30
17.5
17.4
16.5
16.4
15.4
15.4
15.4
15.2
20
13.5
10
0
2000/ 012001/ 022002/032003/042004/052005/062006/ 072007/ 082008/ 09
Argentina
Brazil
USA
China
U.S. soybean
production
2008 (estimated)
= 28 million ha
(71 million acres)
2007 crop year
Production & sales
– 70.36 million tonnes harvested
from 25.7 million hectares
- Average producer price was
$382 per tonne
– Total crop value $26.8 billion
– Exports totaled 30 million tonnes
at $12.9 billion
*SoyStats 2008
Top 10 Overseas Markets for US Soy1 for 2007
China - $4,257 million
Mexico - $1,745 million
Japan - $1,237 million
EU - $1,069 million
Taiwan - $791 million
Canada - $478 million
Indonesia - $438 million
Korea - $243 million
Philippines - $217 million
Others - $2,441 million
32%
19%
14%
2%
2% 3%
1 Soybeans,
10%
4%
6%
Soybean Meal, and Soybean Oil
8%
Source: American Soybean Association based on
U.S. Bureau of Census Trade Data for 2007
www.soystats.com
U.S. Soybean Yield 1982-2007
Bushels/Acre (Metric Tons/Hectare)
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Source: USDA
31.5
26.2
28.1
34.1
33.3
33.9
27.0
32.3
34.1
(2.12)
(1.76)
(1.89)
(2.29)
(2.24)
(2.28)
(1.81)
(2.17)
(2.29)
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
34.2
37.6
32.6
41.4
35.3
37.6
38.9
38.9
36.6
(2.30)
(2.53)
(2.19)
(2.78)
(2.37)
(2.53)
(2.62)
(2.62)
(2.46)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
38.1
39.6
38.0
33.9
42.2
43.0
42.7
41.2
(2.56)
(2.66)
(2.56)
(2.28)
(2.84)
(2.89)
(2.87)
(2.77)
Why U.S. growers use biotech crops
Safer
Herbicide tolerant
–
–
–
–
–
Reduces toxic chemicals
Glyphosate more benign
Fewer sprayings
Less toxic weed seed
Lower aflatoxin levels (in corn)
Why U.S. growers use biotech crops
Environmental & Sustainability Benefits
GM and no-till
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Less overall herbicides
Fewer field trips = less fuel
Smaller tractors
Reduce soil impact/erosion
Retains carbon in soil
Reduction in CO2
Increased insects & birdlife
Increased organic matter
Improved moisture retention
Why U.S. growers use biotech crops
Profitable
No-till allows
- Fuel savings
-
Labor savings
Herbicide savings
Narrow row planting
Increased yields
Total increase in
soybean farm
income
$8.73
billion
Average increase
in income per
hectare
$43.00
Decrease in
environmental
impact associated
with herbicide use
28.7%
Decrease in
herbicide active
ingredients
27 million
kgs
PG Economics: Data
from 1996-2006
Brazil & Argentina
Brazil soybean
production is 65%
biotech covering 14
million hectares.
Argentina’s soy is
99.5% biotech
covering 20
million hectares.
Brazil is developing
its own biotech
varieties.
GM soy in Brazil since 1996
25
Even with the economic crisis and illegal status of GM
soybeans, the added benefits stimulated farmers to
rapidly adopt the technology in Brazil
20
Planting becomes legal in 2003 and
production spreads further away from
the Argentina border with Brazil
Smuggling of illegal seeds
from Argentina
15
10
5
0
90/91
92/93
94/95
96/97
98/99
00/01
02/03
04/05
06/07
GM
Source: CONAB/Céleres
Production in million hectares
Conventional
Why U.S. growers will use the next
generation biotech crops
Alternatives herbicides
Increased yields
Stacked traits
Quality traits for feed &
food chain & end customer
Maintain U.S. soybean
grower competitive edge
Industry Soybean Portfolio*
□ Agronomic
□ Quality/Food
A Steady Pipeline of New Biotech Events Nearly Every Year
Omega-3
RR2Y
Omega-3
Bt/RR2Y
(Monsanto;
Steandonic Acid)
(EPA/DHA)
(Monsanto)
DuPont
Low Sat
(Monsanto)
High
Stearate
(Monsanto;
DuPont)
High BetaConglycinin
(Monsanto;
DuPont)
LowPhytate
Rust
(Monsanto)
Dicamba Tolerant
(Monsanto;
Pioneer
(Monsanto)
Feed: High
Protein Soybean
(Monsanto; DuPont)
Yield
Antibody containing
(Monsanto;
Pioneer)
(against E.
coli 0157:H)
(DuPont)
201X
2009
Low Lin
Modified 7S
Protein FF
(Syngenta)
(DuPont)
High Oleic
(DuPont)
Glyphosate &
isoxazole tol.
(Bayer)*
High Oleic, Stearate
(DuPont)
GAT/Glyphosate-ALS
(Pioneer)
Liberty Link
(Bayer)
Disease
(Monsanto;
Pioneer)
Soybean Cyst
Nematode
Monsanto; Pioneer
Processing:
High Oil Soy
(Monsanto)
Herbicide tol.: 2,4-D
(Dow) and aryloxyphenoxy
propionate herbicides
*Estimated commercialization pipeline of soybean biotech events prepared by the American Soybean Association, November 2007.
The EU & biotech
U.S. soybeans growers (and EU industry)
view with concern:
– Non functioning of the EU the approval process
• Politicization = approval delays cf. other regions
– Zero tolerance on EU-unapproved traits
• Plus impractical threshold
(0.9%)
viz commodity crops
– Process-based labeling instead of detection
– Review (yet again) of the approval system
– Potential introduction of socio-economic criteria
– Proposed Regulation of EFSA guidelines
Global Soybean Production and Consumption
MMT
2000/01 – 2007/08 and Forecast for 2008/09 (USDA)
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
238 238
237
232
225
221
216
219
215
205
197
191
187
185 184
189
176
172
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
Production
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
Consumption
USDA
World’s Largest Soybean Importers
2007/08 Marketing Year
36.50
China
EU-27
Japan
Mexico
Argentina
Taiwan
Thailand
Indonesia
S. Korea
Turkey
Egypt
Iran
Israel
UAE
Malaysia
Morocco
15.40
4.05
3.75
2.95
2.25
1.60
1.40
1.25
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.59
0.56
0.55
0.50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
MMT
USDA
The future EU soy protein supply
- a Dutch perspective
What’s next
Market prices, input costs & credit squeeze likely
to affect planting decisions – maize or soy
Global soybean production expected to rise to
meet protein demands from China & India
Further expansion of biotech soy in Brazil
Coming soybean traits will be taken up rapidly
Increased feed efficiency
• Better protein quality/digestibility/energy
Urgent need for synchronized approvals
Thank You