The Changing Market Environment for
Poultry and Eggs
Aidan Cotter, CEO Bord Bia
World Population 1950 – 2050
Projected Annual Net Number of Migrants
for major world regions to 2050
Predicted Annual Rate of Change of the
Population by Age Group to 2050
In 2008 for the first time in history the proportion
of the population
urban areas will
reach 50%.
Global living
Meat in
Consumption
(kg/head)
FAO Food Price Index
1998 - 2000 = 100
350
Annual Change
Monthly Change 2006-2008
2000-2006
Cereals
300
Dairy
250
200
Oils/Fats
Food
Sugar
150
Meat
100
50
0
08
pSe 8
-0
ug
A
8
l-0
Ju 8
0
nJu 8
-0
ay
M 8
-0
pr
A
8
-0
ar
M 8
0
bFe
08
nJa 7
-0
ec
D 7
-0
ov
N
7
-0
ct
O 7
0
pSe 7
-0
ug
A
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
20
“…agriculture productivity growth
has declined and is too low to
meet the present challenges..”
IFPRI
Global stocks of grain at their lowest level in 20 years
“Demand for agricultural feedstocks for liquid biofuels will be a significant factor
for agricultural markets over the next decade and perhaps beyond”
FAO September 2008
Share of Crops to Biofuels
Brazil
50% of sugarcane
USA
30% of maize
EU
60% of rapeseed
World
5% of cereals
9% of vegetable oils,
but over half of the
increase 2005-2007
Biosecurity
The scarcity of fresh water for a growing global population will result in
water wars, rising prices and the requirement to declare embedded water
It takes 400,000 litres of water to make a car and
140 litres to make a single Starbucks cappuccino
Climate Change: impact of disruptive
weather and precipitation patterns
on long-term agricultural output
“…commodity prices over the medium term
will average substantially above the levels
that prevailed in the past 10 years”
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2008-2017
OECD-FAO Forecasts
2002/06 to 2017
Price
Consumption per head OECD
Consumption per head Non- OECD
+25
+22.4
+22.5%
+19.1%
+20
+18.4
+16.0%
+14.7
+15
+9.4%
+10
+5
%
change
0
-5
Pigmeat
-2.0%
Beef
Poultry
Global Poultry Production
Global Poultry Production in 2017 to be 23% higher than 2007
2007
30
2017
25
20
million
tonnes
15
10
5
0
Asia
USA
Latin
America
EU
CIS
EU Poultrymeat Production
‘000 tonnes
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
EU Poultry Production up by 40% since 1994
4,000
2,000
EU Poultry Consumption up by 50%
0
'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
EU Poultrymeat Trade Balance
(‘000 tonnes)
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
'95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
Imports
Exports
Irish Consumption Patterns
Poultry
Volumes ñ 4%
Retail Price ñ 8%
Poultry sales ñ 12%
Eggs
Retail prices ⇑ 14%
More people buying eggs
Egg sales ⇑ 22% €75 m
UK Consumption Patterns
Year to end-August
Poultrymeat Sales +6%
Retail Prices +7%
12 wks to 10th August
Volume -1%
Whole Birds -5%
Beef, lamb,
pork, bacon
Sales -4 to -9%
Egg Market Sales
+26%
Sales of organic eggs lower
UK: The Credit Crunch
Cost-conscious consumers giving up luxuries, trading down to budget stores
More than 40% of shoppers have switched to cheaper brands.
Two-thirds more shoppers are looking out for promotions.
A third of shoppers spending more time in the supermarket comparing prices.
31% of adults say they are visiting discounters more often than 12 months ago.
Three in ten shoppers have made the switch from famous brands to own label
Quantitative
study covering 14 markets
& 80% of global GDP.
On the ground views from
40 cities in every continent
of the world
Consumer Lifestyle Trends
“I want experiences that help me get the
most out of life”
“I need to be able to cope with the
demands of my busy day”
“I want to feel good about the choices I
make and do my bit when I can”
“I want to manage or improve my health
and wellness”
“I like to make smart choices when I buy
things and want to feel I’m getting a good
deal”
“I am looking for the real thing; I care
where it comes from and how it is made”
Quality Assurance Scheme
Promoting Eggs
Smart Shopper
Promoting the Quality Mark
New Christmas Promotion
The Changing Market Environment for
Poultry and Eggs
Aidan Cotter, CEO Bord Bia