ROAD TO WAR
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT
MULTIPLE THEATERS/HIGH OPTEMPO
VW 16
CENTCOM
CUBAN REFUGEES
SOUTHCOM/ACOM
LRC
EUCOM
WITHIN THE US
- HEATED FORIEGN POLICY DEBATE
- 200K RES COMP CALL-UP JUN 00
CINC USPACOM
MRC
USFK
Fall 2000
JTF
PACIFICA
EMERGING CRISIS IN PACIFICA
THEATER ENVIRONMENT
• Emergence of assertive regional powers with
clashing agendas
• Long standing ethnic and national divisions
within region
• Regional competition for control of natural
resources
• US strategic options influenced by
– World wide military requirements
– Domestic political and economic
considerations
– Long term regional objectives
Japan
Chosun
CHOSUN MRC Crisis
- #1 regional priority
- FDO 1&2 deployed
- War likely fall 2000
Theater Situation
c. 2000
Okinawa
Eastland
East Isle
Guam
East Sulu Sea Oil Fields
- Huge new deposits
- Ownership contested
Pacifica
SURRAN
PACIFICA Crisis
- UN Peace Keeping
Operation fails
- SURRAN introduction
of forces
Japan
Chosun
THREATS:
EASTLAND
SURRAN
PPF
Okinawa
Eastland
East Isle
PPF
Guam
Pacifica
Surran
EASTLAND STRATEGIC
OBJECTIVES
• Establish regional leadership and role as world
power.
• Reduce US influence in western Pacific region.
• Continue economic expansion; avoid direct
confrontation with western market nations.
• Assure access to and control of East Sulu Sea oil
fields through friendly surrogate nations.
• Support defeat of PACIFICA and supporting
coalition forces.
• Installation of a friendly, rebel government in
PACIFICA with basing rights for EASTLAND
forces.
SURRAN STRATEGIC
OBJECTIVES
• Consolidate PACIFICA islands into “Greater
Ethnic SURRAN”
• Assure access and control of Sulu Sea oil fields
• Continue economic expansion; exploit PACIFICA
markets
• Establish itself as a leading regional power
SURRANIAN MILITARY
OBJECTIVES
• Defeat Pacifican and supporting coalition forces
• Control of the Sulu Sea Island oil fields and
supporting LOCs
• Neutralization of US influence in the region
PACIFICAN PEOPLES FRONT
(PPF)
PRA
PPF: A coalition of insurgents
and breakaway Army units
united in their opposition to
the existing government.
Rebel army units located on
LUZON; insurgents
throughout the islands.
PRA
SPM
SPM: Surranian Peoples
Movement
Pacifica
SPM
PPF CONTROLLED AREAS
CONTESTED AREAS
PRA: Pacifican Rebel Army
PPF = SPM + PRA
Road To War
1965
1965
Pacifica
SPM
1965
1946
• US grants PACIFICA independence.
–PACIFICA & US sign defense pact.
• SURRAN begins war of national
liberation to gain independence.
1955
• PACIFICA becomes charter member of
South East Asia Treaty Organization.
• SURRAN gains independence.
–Denounces SEATO.
–Allies itself w/ RUSSIA & EASTLAND.
1965
• Surranian ethnic minority within
PACIFICA begins insurgency on southern
islands to gain independence from Luzon
based PACIFICA government. Adopts
name Surranian Peoples Movement
(SPM).
Road To War
1986
1986
1986
1986
Pacifica
SPM
1966
• PACIFICA President Luna declares martial
law and seizes power.
–US initiates military aid to PACIFICA.
–SURRAN declares support for
PACIFICA. Surranian separatist
movement.
• SURRAN discovers oil and begins
military and economic build up.
1986
• President Luna overthrown by “People’s
Revolution”, tired of war and declining
economy. Military backs the people
during showdown.
• SPM continued low level insurgency in
south. Terrorism spread to northern
islands to include Luzon.
–SURRAN continues aid declaring “Asia
for Asians” theme.
Road To War
1988 SPM
II
1987
Attempted Coup
1988
1988 SPM
Oil discovered
East Sulu Sea
1992
Pacifica
SPM
1987
• Failed negotiations result in US
withdrawal from PACIFICA bases.
1988
• PACIFICA military coup attempt foiled
by loyal troops and threat of US
intervention. US cuts off military aid.
• Growing support for “Asia for Asian”
movement among young military
officers. Nationalistic PACIFICAN
officers begin organizing.
• SPM continued success in south.
Insurgency spread to northern islands to
include Luzon.
• SURRAN continues aid, declaring “Asia
for Asians” theme.
1992
• Oil and substantial mineral deposits
discovered vicinity of East Sulu Sea.
Road To War
Pacifica
1998
2nd Coup/Civil War
II
SPM
USMAGPAC
SPM
SPM
USMAGPAC
HQ 1ST SFG (FWD)
CO A (+), 2nd Bn
1990s
• PACIFICA economy in doldrums.
• Counterinsurgency against SPM failing.
AUG 1998
• 2nd PACIFICA military coup attempt
fails; civil war erupts on Luzon.
• SURRAN provides covert military aid
and advisors to rebels and SPM
insurgents.
–Surranians declare support of army
rebels and, “their just fight for
freedom”.
–SPM exploit situation to consolidate
success in south.
APR-JUL 1999
• PACIFICA military stretched thin. US
resumes military aid to salvage situation.
• USMAGPAC arrives in PACIFCA.
Road To War
Tuguegardo
PPF
X
MAY
PPF
USMAGPAC
MAR-APR 2000
• SPM and rebel army units form PPF,
under Surranian pressure.
• PPF announces formation of independent
Republic of Tuguegardo.
MAY 2000
• PACIFICA government counter- attack
inflicts heavy losses on PPF on Luzon and
stabilizes the situation.
• USMAGPAC expand to support
PACIFICA army units supporting
operations on Mindinao.
Pacifica
USMAGPAC
HQ 1ST SFG (FWD)
2BN 1ST SF
II
SF
USMAGPAC
Situation
1 JUN 2000
approximate locations
of Rebel ( PRA XXX ) and
Loyalist ( ) forces
and SPM ( ) forces
in Northern Luzon
XX
Tuguegardo
X
III
X
XX
(-)
PRA
III
XX
X
X
X
XX
Manila
II
X
XX
(-)
II
X
XX
PRA
(-)
Road To War
PPF
ZOS
ZOS
PPF
SPM
2000
Pacifica
JUN- JUL 2000
• UN brokered cease fire agreement
–UNFORPAC initiates Peace Keeping
Operations.
• PPF refits and rearms.
• Insurgency continues on Mindinaroa;
SPM seize Palawan.
• Challenges/local terrorist attacks on
UN forces increase.
• UN sponsored humanitarian operations
disrupted by PPF.
Situation
1 JUL 2000
UNFORPAC
Tuguegardo
approximate locations
of Rebel
( PRA XXX )
Loyalist
( )
UNFORPAC (
)
SPM
(
)
in Northern Luzon
XX
XX
(-)
PRA
X
III
ZOS
ZOS
X
XX
X
XX
X
Manila
ZOS
X
X
X
X
MEF
XX
XX
ZOS
PRA
(-)
SURRANIAN
INTERVENTION
Pacifica
Surran
JUL 2000
• PPF refits and rearms.
• PPF prepares to resume offensive
across “ZOS”.
• SURRAN preparations detected; US
NCA directs planning and preparation
to support PACIFICA.
JUL-OCT 2000
• SURRAN intervenes; lands forces on
Luzon.
• UNSCR calls for international support
for PACIFICA.
• UN forces prepare to withdraw from
PACIFICA
• US NCA orders deployment of JTF
PACIFICA.
• UN forces killed by snipers along ZOS;
detachments held “hostage” by PPF
SURRANIAN ACTIONS
• SURRAN conducted landings at the “Invitation of the
PPF” to help defend TUGUEGARDO and Surranian
ethnic rights in the region.
• Pronounced their mission as defensive and peaceful.
Pledged not to attack the Pacifican government if not
attacked. Intent is clearly to engage and defeat
Pacifican forces.
• Reaction to International opposition
– Positions ground forces along northern UN ZOS
– Initiates sniper attacks on UN patrols; takes UN
hostages
– Assumes an offensive posture while landing
additional forces and supplies
– Continues its support to PPF preparations for a
renewed offensive
Pacifica Crisis
“The U.S. Responds”
KEY EVENT TIME LINE
EVENT
DATE
CRITICAL ACTION
SURRAN prep detected
1 JUL 00
NSC issues NSDD.
3 JUL 00
JCS Warning Order.
5 JUL 00
UN SC Resolution 761: Halt landings; begin
force withdrawal.
22 AUG 00
UN SC Resolution 763: Halt landings; begin
force withdrawal within 10 days.
UN SC Resolution 794: 45 days to withdraw or
be compelled to do so. Air and Maritime
exclusion zone imposed in 35 days.
SURRAN landing
SURRAN does not
withdraw
1 SEP 00
JCS EXORD/C-Day.
6 OCT 00
SURRAN harasses
UN forces
SURRAN does not
withdraw
Maritime/Air Exclusion Zone Imposed.
8 OCT 00
UN forces begin pulling back from ZOS and
prepare to redeploy from PACIFICA.
16 OCT 00
JTF FRAGO #1 issued. I Corps moves out of
assembly areas to establish defensive
positions.
OCTOBER 2000
JTF PACIFICA
ESTABLISHED
JTF PACIFICA
JOA
Exclusion
Zone
Surran
Pacifica
THEATER STRATEGIC
OBJECTIVES
• Restore territorial integrity of PACIFICA (Luzon)
• Protection of East Sulu Sea oil and minerals to
insure free and equitable access to benefits
• Prevent expansion of the war beyond theater of
operations
• Minimize probability of renewed SURRAN
offensive action
• Assist reestablishment of legitimate and viable
government of PACIFICA
• Protect lives and property of US citizens
XXX
Situation
16 OCT 2000
Tuguegaro
39 (SR)
XX
REBEL ARMY
SURRAN
SPM
XXXX
8 (SR)
XX
(-)
PRA
XXXX
10 (SR)
ZOS
ZOS
II
X
Manila
ZOS
II
XX
PRA
ZOS
(-)
(-)
PRA
SR
II