droweroF
DRAWEROF
citsilaer dna evitcejbo yna rof etisiuqererp tnatropmi na si noitalupop erutuf tuoba noitamrofnI
xes dna ega ,noitalupop latot eht no noitamrofni edivorp snoitcejorp noitalupoP .nalp tnempoleved
fo noitalumrof eht rof laitnesse si noitamrofni hcuS .yrtnuoc a fo noitalupop erutuf eht fo erutcurts
lla fo noitatnemelpmi eht gnitaulave dna gnirotinom sa llew sa ,semmargorp tnempoleved lanoitan
.slevel lanoiger dna lanoitan ta smargorp dna snalp tnempoForeword
leved
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taht detaicerppa eb dluohs tI .ylevitcepser 4002 dna 4991 ni desaeler erew dna atad susnec 1002
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rd
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leved lanoiprojection
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erusnethat
are not provided herein will be made available upon requests as well as on the NSA website.
I would like to recognize the government of the United States of America (USA) through USAID, the
United States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providing technical and financial support during
the production of the population projection report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic and
Vital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to the
production of this report. I hope that the findings in this report will be turned into practice in order to
RELTYETS NHOJ .RD
ensure that our national development issues are addressed productively.
LARENEG–NAICITSITATS
YCNEGA SCITSITATS AIBIMAN
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
i
i
1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
Foreword
FOREWARD
Information about future population is an important prerequisite for any objective and realistic
development plan. Population projections provide information on the total population, age and sex
structure of the future population of a country. Such information is essential for the formulation of
national development programmes, as well as monitoring and evaluating the implementation of all
Foreword
development plans and programs at national and regional levels.
Namibia
POPULATION PROJECTIONS 2011 - 2041
The last population projections were produced by the Central Bureau of Statistics based on 1991 and
FOREWARD
2001 census data and were released in 1994 and 2004 respectively. It should be appreciated that
Information
future
is basis
an important
prerequisite
objective
andof realistic
populationabout
projections
arepopulation
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the
of assumptions
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the
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andprojections
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is sex
rd
structure
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future
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the 3 of
time
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andfor
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2014
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well 2011
as monitoring
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theprojection
implementation
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projected
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years, that is,
(base year) and
to 2041.
Additional
tables that
development
plans herein
and programs
at national
regional
levels.
are not provided
will be made
availableand
upon
requests
as well as on the NSA website.
TheI last
population
projections
were produced
byUnited
the Central
of Statistics
basedUSAID,
on 1991
would
like to recognize
the government
of the
States Bureau
of America
(USA) through
the and
2001
census
data
and were
released
1994
andfor
2004
respectively.
should
be support
appreciated
United
States
of America
Census
Bureauinand
UNFPA
providing
technicalItand
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during that
population
projections
made on
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of assumptions
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of the
the production
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projection
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particularly
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levels
of Statistics
fertility, mortality
migration,
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up the components
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Vital
division, and
as well
as UNAM,
formake
the uncountable
determinations
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rd
the production
3 time that
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have
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regional
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of this
report. Iprojections
hope that the
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this report will
be turned
intoand
practice
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to The
projected
thirty years,
that is,issues
from are
2011
(base year)
to 2041. Additional projection tables that
ensure period
that ourisnational
development
addressed
productively.
are not provided herein will be made available upon requests as well as on the NSA website.
I would like to recognize the government of the United States of America (USA) through USAID, the
United States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providing technical and financial support during
the production of the population projection report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic and
Vital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to the
production of this report. I hope that the findings in this report will be turned into practice in order to
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
September 2014
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
droweroF
DRAWEROF
citsilaer dna evitcejbo yna rof etisiuqererp tnatropmi na si noitalupop erutuf tuoba noitamrofnI
xes dna ega ,noitalupop latot eht no noitamrofni edivorp snoitcejorp noitalupoP .nalp tnempoleved
fo noitalumrof eht rof laitnesse si noitamrofni hcuS .yrtnuoc a fo noitalupop erutuf eht fo erutcurts
lla fo noitatnemelpmi eht gnitaulave dna gnirotinom sa llew sa ,semmargorp tnempoleved lanoitan
.slevel lanoiger dna lanoitan ta smargorp dna snalp tnempoForeword
leved
dna 1991 no desab scitsitatS fo uaeruMISSION
B lartneC eSTATEMENT
ht yb decudorp erew snoitcejorp noitalupop tsal ehT
FOREWARD
ht detaicermanner
ppa eb produce
dluohs tand
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002 dna quality
4991 nand
i detimely
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erew dnthat
a atare
ad fit-for-purpose
susnec 1002 in
“In atacoordinated
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eht fo ruoabout
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ht ot gnwith
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level sex
structure
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l lanfuture
oiger dnpopulation
a lanoitan htof
obatacountry.
detcurtsnSuch
oc neeinformation
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taht formulation
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taht sdevelopment
elbat noitcejorpprogrammes,
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owell
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ew programs
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“Be a high performance institution in statistics delivery”
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ht ,D
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rd
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edro that
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tropebeen
r siht constructed
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oh I .tropand
er siregional
ht fo noitlevels.
cudorpThe
projected period is thirty years, that
Additional
.ylevis,
itcfrom
udorp2011
deIntegrity
sse(base
rdda eyear)
ra seuto
ssi 2041.
tnempo
leved lanoiprojection
tan ruo tahttables
erusnethat
are not provided herein will be made available upon requests as well as on the NSA website.
Service focus
I would like to recognize the government of the United States of America (USA) through USAID, the
Transparency
United States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providing technical and financial support during
Accuracy
the production of the population projection report.
The NSA team, particularly the Demographic and
Vital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to the
Partnership
production of this report. I hope that the findings in this report will be turned into practice in order to
RELTYETS NHOJ .RD
ensure that our national development issues are addressed productively.
LARENEG–NAICITSITATS
YCNEGA SCITSITATS AIBIMAN
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
i
i
1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
Foreword
Foreward
FOREWARD
FOREWARD
Information about future population is an important prerequisite for any objective and realistic development plan.
Population
projections
population,
age and for
sex structure
of the and
future
population
Information
aboutprovide
future information
population on
is the
an total
important
prerequisite
any objective
realistic
of a development
country. Suchplan.
information
is
essential
for
the
formulation
of
national
development
programmes,
well as
Population projections provide information on the total population, age andassex
monitoring and evaluating the implementation of all development plans and programs at national and regional levels.
structure of the future population of a country. Such information is essential for the formulation of
development
programmes,
as well
as monitoring
and of
evaluating
the implementation
of all
The national
last population
projections
were produced
by the
Central Bureau
Statistics based
on 1991 and 2001
census
Foreword
datadevelopment
and were released
in
1994
and
2004
respectively.
It
should
be
appreciated
that
population
projections
are
plans and programs at national and regional levels.
made on the basis of assumptions relating to the future behaviour of the levels of fertility, mortality and migration,
which
make
the components
of population
change.
is the 3rdBureau
time that
population
projections
The
last up
population
projections
were produced
by This
the Central
of Statistics
based
on 1991have
andbeen
FOREWARD
constructed
at
both
national
and
regional
levels.
The
projected
period
is
thirty
years,
that
is,
from
2011
(base
2001 census data and were released in 1994 and 2004 respectively. It should be appreciated thatyear)
to 2041. Additional projection tables that are not provided herein will be made available upon requests as well as on
Information
about future population is an important prerequisite for any objective and realistic
population
the NSA
website.projections are made on the basis of assumptions relating to the future behaviour of the
development
plan. mortality
Population
provide
information
on the of
total
population,
ageThis
and
levels of fertility,
andprojections
migration, which
make
up the components
population
change.
is sex
rd
Istructure
would
to the
recognize
the
government
United
Statesinformation
of America
(USA)
through
USAID,
United
future
population
ofofa the
country.
isnational
essential
the the
formulation
of
the 3likeof
time
that
population
projections
have
been Such
constructed
at both
andfor
regional
levels.
TheStates
of
America
Census
Bureau
and
UNFPA
for
providing
technical
and
financial
support
during
the
production
of
the
national
development
programmes,
as from
well 2011
as monitoring
evaluating
theprojection
implementation
of all
projected
period is thirty
years, that is,
(base year) and
to 2041.
Additional
tables that
population projection report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic and Vital Statistics division, as well as
development
plans herein
and programs
at national
and
levels.
are for
notthe
provided
will be made
available
upon
requests
as well
as on
the NSA
website.
UNAM,
uncountable
determinations
dedicated
toregional
the
production
of this
report.
I hope
that the findings in this
report will be turned into practice in order to ensure that our national development issues are addressed productively.
TheI last
population
projections
were produced
byUnited
the Central
of Statistics
basedUSAID,
on 1991
would
like to recognize
the government
of the
States Bureau
of America
(USA) through
the and
2001
census
data
and were
released
1994
andfor
2004
respectively.
should
be support
appreciated
United
States
of America
Census
Bureauinand
UNFPA
providing
technicalItand
financial
during that
population
projections
made on
the basisreport.
of assumptions
relating
to the the
future
behaviourand
of the
the production
of theare
population
projection
The NSA team,
particularly
Demographic
levels
of Statistics
fertility, mortality
migration,
which
up the components
of population
change.
This is
Vital
division, and
as well
as UNAM,
formake
the uncountable
determinations
dedicated
to the
rd
the production
3 time that
population
have
beeninconstructed
at both
national
regional
levels.
of this
report. Iprojections
hope that the
findings
this report will
be turned
intoand
practice
in order
to The
projected
thirty years,
that is,issues
from are
2011
(base year)
to 2041. Additional projection tables that
ensure period
that ourisnational
development
addressed
productively.
are not provided herein will be made available upon requests as well as on the NSA website.
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
I would like to recognize the government of the United States of America (USA) through USAID, the
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
United States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providing technical and financial support during
the production
of AGENCY
the population projection report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic and
NAMIBIA
STATISTICS
Vital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to the
production of this report. I hope that the findings in this report will be turned into practice in order to
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
i
i
i
droweroF
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
DRAWEROF
Population projections provide a glimpse of the most basic characteristics of human societies in the future theircsize
itsilaand
er dcomposition
na evitcejbobyyage
na rand
of esex.
tisiuThey
qereralso
p tnprovide
atropmian
naimportant
si noitalutool
popfor
erplanning
utuf tuoband
a npolicymaking.
oitamrofnI
This report
provides
population
projections
for
Namibia,
urban/rural
areas,
as
well
as
regions
from
xes dna ega ,noitalupop latot eht no noitamrofni edivorp snoitcejorp noitalupoP .nalp tnem
pole2011
ved to
2041.foAnset
of
core
tables
also
provides
estimates
of
the
population
by
age
and
sex
in
key
years.
The
report
oitalumrof eht rof laitnesse si noitamrofni hcuS .yrtnuoc a fo noitalupop erutuf eht fo erutcurts
presents the methods and assumptions used in the calculation of projections for future years.
lla fo noitatnemelpmi eht gnitaulave dna gnirotinom sa llew sa ,semmargorp tnempoleved lanoitan
The projections are all based on cohort .component
sForeword
level lanoigemethods.
r dna lanoitSuch
an ta methods
smargorp dare
na sconsidered
nalp tnempothe
leve“gold
d
standard,” since they include the three (3) components that affect population change which are births,
deaths,
age
dnaand
1991migration.
no desab These
scitsitatcomponents
S fo uaeruB laof
rtnchange,
eC ehFOREWARD
t yas
b dwell
ecudas
orpthe
erebase
w snopopulation
itcejorp noitby
alup
op and
tsal esex
hT for
2011,tawere
derived
after
extensive
analysis
of
the
2011
census,
as
well
as
other
previous
censuses,
surveys
ht detaicerppa eb dluohs tI .ylevitcepser 4002 dna 4991 ni desaeler erew dna atad susnec 1002
and
related
much
n important eprerequisite
is
important
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ht fo ruevidence.
oivahefor
b eIt
rany
uis
tufoften
eobjective
ht osaid
t gnithat
taand
ler “demographic
snrealistic
oitpmusInformation
sa foissidestiny.”
sab ehabout
t nThis
o edis
afuture
mbecause
era spopulation
noone
itcejocan
rp npredict
oitaan
lupo
p
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future
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a
population
based
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current
population
size
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asinformatio
provide information
population,
si sihT .eon
gnahthe
c nototal
italupo
p fo stnenopage
moc and
eht psex
u ekdevelopment
am hcihw ,noitplan.
argim Population
dna ytilatromprojections
,ytilitref fo sprovide
level
well as an analysis of past trends.
dr
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ehT .slevel laisnoessential
iger dna lafor
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n htformulation
ob ta detcurtsof
nostructure
c neeb evaof
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noitcfuture
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t 3 eht Such informa
Namibia’s
population
in
2041
is
projected
to
be
3.44
million.
Given
uncertainty
about
the
future,
and
l as monitoring
an
tahtand
selbaevaluating
t noitcejorpthe
lanoimplementation
itiddA .1402 ot )raeof
y eall
sanational
b( 1102 mdevelopment
orf ,si taht ,sraeprogrammes,
y ytriht si doireas
p dwell
etcelow
joasrpmonitoring
high
variant
projections
of
the
national
population
are
also
provided.
By
2041
these
low
and
high
variants
and regional levels.
.etisbew ASN eht no sa llew sa stseuqerdevelopment
nopu elbaliavaplans
edamand
eb lprograms
liw niereh datednational
ivorp tonand
era regional levels
project populations of 3.30 million and 3.59 million respectively, with a range of almost 300 thousand.
ced by the
Central
based
ehist substantial
,DIBureau
ASU hguof
ovariation
rhStatistics
t )ASU(inacexpected
iremA fon
o change
se1991
tatS dand
etinThe
U eNamibia,
hlast
t fo population
tnem
nrein
volarge
gprojections
eht measure
ezingocewere
rtootthe
eproduced
kiassumptions
l dluow Iby the Central
There
within
due
994 and 2004
It
should
census
gnrespectively.
irud patterns
troppus laof
icnmigration
anif dna be
lawill
cinappreciated
hcontinue
cet gnidivinto
orpthat
rof2001
A
PFNU
dFor
na instance,
uadata
eruB sand
ufrom
snewere
C 2011
acirereleased
mtoA 2041
fo setrural
ain
tS 1994
dareas
etinUand
that recent
the
future.
are 2004 resp
expected
urban
rural
are
sis of assumptions
to
on
dna cto
ihrelating
pshrink
argomegradually,
D ethe
ht ylfuture
rawhile
lucitrabehaviour
p ,maeareas,
t ASof
N largely
ethe
hT population
.trodue
per to
noiin-migration
tcprojections
ejorp noitalfrom
uare
pop made
eht foareas,
noithe
tcu
dbasis
orprojected
p ehof
t assumptions
to
increase
sharply.
The
population
of
the
Khomas
region
in
particular
is
expected
to
increase
from
341
to up the c
hich make up ethe
and
ht ocomponents
t detacided of
snopopulation
itanimreted change.
elbatnuoThis
cnu is
elevels
ht rof of
,Mfertility,
ANU sa mortality
llew sa ,n
oisivmigration,
id scitsitatwhich
S latiVmake
rd
828 thousand
contrast,
e been constructed
national
constructed
ot redrat
o nboth
i(far
ecitmore
carp othan
tni and
dedouble).
nruregional
t eb llIn
iw levels.
troper sThe
ihother
t the
ni sg3nregions
idtime
nif ehthat
tsuch
tahpopulation
tas
epOmaheke
oh I .troprojections
perand
sihtOmusati
fo nohave
itcuare
dbeen
orpboth
projected
to
increase
by
only
17%over
the
same
period.
2011 (base year) to 2041. Additional projection
ispthirty
.ylevitcutables
dorp dethat
sserprojected
dda era seuperiod
ssi tnem
olevedyears,
lanoitathat
n ruois,tafrom
ht eru2011
sne (base year) t
le upon requests as well as on the NSA website.
are not provided herein will be made available upon requests as
Key highlights and findings –
of the United States of America (USA) through USAID, theI would like to recognize the government of the United State
• technical
Nationaland
population
is support
projectedduring
to increase
anofestimated
2.11 million
in 2011
to 3.44for providi
UNFPA for providing
financial
Unitedfrom
States
America Census
Bureau
and UNFPA
million
by
2041,
or
by
63
percent.
During
the
more
immediate
15year
interval
from
2015
to The NSA t
n report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic andthe production of the population projection report.
2030 the population is projected to grow from 2.28 to 2.96 million, which is an increase of
, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to theVital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncount
30 percent.
ndings in this report will be turned into practice in order toproduction of this report. I hope that the findings in this repor
• The share of population living in urban
areasthat
is projected
to development
increase
in
RELfrom
TYETissues
S43
NHpercent
OJare
.RDaddressed
are addressed productively.
ensure
our national
prod
2011 to 67 percent in 2041. Over this interval the urban populationLAisREexpected
toITmore
NEG–NAIC
SITATSthan
double while the rural population will gradually shrink.
YCNEGA SCITSITATS AIBIMAN
• The populations of Khomas and Erongo are projected to increase the most in both numerical
and percentage terms. By 2041 over a third of Namibia’s population is projected to live in
these two regions, up from under a quarter in 2011.
• Due to projected fertility decline over the next 15 years (from 2015 to 2030) the share of
the population under age of 15 is expected to decline modestly from 36.4 to 33.7 percent,
JOHNdependency
STEYTLER ratio (the number at ages 0-14
a decline that will be mirrored by theDR.
youth
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
divided by those 15-64). In contrast the
proportion of the population at older ages (65+) is
expected to remain fixed at about 4.5 NAMIBIA
percent. STATISTICS AGENCY
• The above findings reflect the age and sex structure in 2011 as well as estimates and
projections of subsequent demographic change at a national level:
i
1 to 2041
i
o Total fertility rate (expected births per woman) is expected to decline from 3.9 in
2011 to 2.4 children by 2041. 1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
o Life expectancy at birth is projected to rise by 11 years for men and 12 years for
women from 2011 to 2041.
o International net migration at a national level is presumed to be zero (inflows cancel
outflows) yet estimates of annual net migration at the sub-national level from 20012011 are included and are expected to continue unchanged.
ii
Namibia 2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
Foreword
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTSPAGE
FOREWARD
FOREWARD
i
Information about future population is an important prerequisite for any objective and realistic
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
development
plan. Population projections provide information on the total population,iiage and sex
structure
of the future population of a country. Such information is essential for the formulation
of
TABLE
OF CONTENT
iii
national development programmes, as well as monitoring and evaluating the implementation of all
Foreword
iv
LISTdevelopment
OF TABLES, FIGURES,
APPENDICES
plans and AND
programs
at national and regional levels.
1 – TheBACKGROUND
last population projections were produced by the Central Bureau of Statistics based 1on 1991 and
FOREWARD
census data
and were ON
released
in 1994 PROJECTIONS
and 2004 respectively. It should be appreciated
that
2 – 2001SUMMARY
HIGHLIGHTS
POPULATION
3
Information
future
is basis
an important
prerequisite
objective
andof realistic
populationabout
projections
arepopulation
made on the
of assumptions
relating tofortheany
future
behaviour
the
3development
– levels
CORE
TABLES
ON POPULATION
PROJECTIONS
FOR
plan. mortality
Population
provide
information
on the of
total
population,
ageThis
and
of fertility,
andprojections
migration,
which
make
upNATIONAL
the components
population
change.
is sex
structure
the
future
population
of a have
country.
information
essential
the formulation
of
the 3rd of
time
that
population
projections
been Such
constructed
at bothisnational
andfor
regional
AND
SUB-NATIONALS:
MEDIUM
VARIANT
10 levels. The
national
development
programmes,
as from
well 2011
as monitoring
evaluating
theprojection
implementation
of all
projected
period is thirty
years, that is,
(base year) and
to 2041.
Additional
tables that
APPENDIX
development
plans herein
and programs
at national
regional
levels.
are not provided
will be made
availableand
upon
requests
as well as on the NSA website.49
REFERENCES
58 USAID,
TheI last
population
projections
were produced
byUnited
the Central
of Statistics
based
on 1991
would
like
to recognize
the government
of the
States Bureau
of America
(USA) through
the and
2001
census
data
and were
released
1994
andfor
2004
respectively.
should
be support
appreciated
United
States
of America
Census
Bureauinand
UNFPA
providing
technicalItand
financial
during that
population
projections
made on
the basisreport.
of assumptions
relating
to the the
future
behaviourand
of the
the production
of theare
population
projection
The NSA team,
particularly
Demographic
levels
of Statistics
fertility, mortality
migration,
which
up the components
of population
change.
This is
Vital
division, and
as well
as UNAM,
formake
the uncountable
determinations
dedicated
to the
rd
the production
3 time that
population
have
beeninconstructed
at both
national
regional
levels.
of this
report. Iprojections
hope that the
findings
this report will
be turned
intoand
practice
in order
to The
projected
thirty years,
that is,issues
from are
2011
(base year)
to 2041. Additional projection tables that
ensure period
that ourisnational
development
addressed
productively.
are not provided herein will be made available upon requests as well as on the NSA website.
I would like to recognize the government of the United States of America (USA) through USAID, the
United States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providing technical and financial support during
the production of the population projection report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic and
Vital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to the
production of this report. I hope that the findings in this report will be turned into practice in order to
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
iii
i
i
droweroF
LIST OF TABLES
DRAWEROF
LIST OF TABLESPage
Table I:
Fertility and Mortality Assumptions by Region, 2011 and 2041
2
citsilaer dna evitcejbo yna rof etisiuqererp tnatropmi na si noitalupop erutuf tuoba noitamrofnI
xes dna ega ,noitalupop latot eht no noitamrofni edivorp snoitcejorp noitalupoP .nalp tnempoleved
CorefTables:
o noitalumrof eht rof laitnesse si noitamrofni hcuS .yrtnuoc a fo noitalupop erutuf eht fo erutcurts
Projections
for
lla fo no
itaNamibia
tnemelpmi eht gnitaulave dna gnirotinom sa llew sa ,semmargorp tnempol11
eved lanoitan
Foreword
Projected Population by Sex, Growth Rate .and
Components
of
Growth,
2011-41
slevel lanoiger dna lanoitan ta smargorp dna snalp tnempoleved
Projected Population by Sex and Five-Year Age – 2014, 2015, 2016, 2021, 2026
dna 1991 no desab scitsitatS fo uaeruB lartneC ehFOREWARD
t yb decudorp erew snoitcejorp noitalupop tsal ehT
Projected Population by Sex and Single-Year Age – 2014,
2015, 2016, 2021, 2026
taht detaicerppa eb dluohs tI .ylevitcepser 4002 dna 4991 ni desaeler erew dna atad susnec 1002
Projected Population by Region, 2011-2041
n important eprerequisite
important
prere
ht fo ruoivahefor
b erany
utuf eobjective
ht ot gnitaand
ler snrealistic
oitpmusInformation
sa fo sisab ehabout
t no edafuture
m era spopulation
noitcejorp nis
oitaan
lupo
p
provide information
population,
informatio
si sihT .eon
gnahthe
c nototal
italupo
p fo stnenopage
moc and
eht psex
u ekdevelopment
am hcihw ,noitplan.
argim Population
dna ytilatromprojections
,ytilitref fo sprovide
level
Projections
19
untry. Such
information
the
of
ehT .slevfor
el lUrban
aisnoessential
igerand
dnaRural
lafor
noitaAreas
n htformulation
ob ta detcurtsof
nostructure
c neeb evaof
h sthe
noitcfuture
ejorp npopulation
oitalupop tah
t eamicountry.
t dr3 eht Such informa
Projected
Components
l as monitoring
the
implementation
tahtand
sePopulation
lbaevaluating
t noitcejby
orpSex,
lanoGrowth
itiddA .1Rate,
402 oand
t )raeof
y eall
sanational
b( 1102 of
mdevelopment
oGrowth,
rf ,si taht2011-41
,sraeprogrammes,
y ytriht si doireas
p dwell
etcejoasrpmonitoring an
Projected
Population
by
Sex
and
Five-Year
Age
–
2014,
2015,
2016,
2021,
2026
and regional levels.
.etisbew ASN eht no sa llew sa stseuqerdevelopment
nopu elbaliavaplans
edamand
eb lprograms
liw niereh datednational
ivorp tonand
era regional levels
ced by the
Central
eht ,DIBureau
Aby
SURegion
hguof
orhStatistics
t )ASU( acbased
iremA fon
o se1991
tatS dand
etinThe
U ehlast
t fo population
tnemnrevogprojections
eht ezingocewere
r o23
t eproduced
kil dluow Iby the Central
Projections
994 and 2004gnrespectively.
census
irud troppus laIt
icnshould
anif dna be
lacinappreciated
hcet gnidivorpthat
rof2001
APFNU
dna uadata
eruB sand
usnewere
C acirereleased
mA fo setain
tS 1994
detinUand 2004 resp
Projected Population by Sex, Growth Rate and Components of Growth, 2011-41
sis of assumptions
dna cihrelating
pargometo
D ethe
ht ylfuture
ralucitrabehaviour
p ,maet ASof
N ethe
hT population
.troper noitcprojections
ejorp noitaluare
pop made
eht fo on
noithe
tcudbasis
orp ehof
t assumptions
Projected Population by Sex and Five-Year Age – 2014, 2015, 2016, 2021, 2026
hich make up ethe
and
ht ocomponents
t detacided of
snopopulation
itanimreted change.
elbatnuoThis
cnu is
elevels
ht rof of
,Mfertility,
ANU sa mortality
llew sa ,n
oisivmigration,
id scitsitatwhich
S latiVmake up the c
rd
e been constructed
ot redrat
o nboth
i ecitnational
carp otni and
denruregional
t eb lliw levels.
troper sThe
iht the
ni sg3nidtime
nif ehthat
t tahpopulation
t epoh I .troprojections
per siht fo nohave
itcudbeen
orp constructed
LIST
OF
FIGURES
2011 (base year) to 2041. Additional projection
ispthirty
.ylevitcutables
dorp dethat
sserprojected
dda era seuperiod
ssi tnem
olevedyears,
lanoitathat
n ruois,tafrom
ht eru2011
sne (base year) t
Figure
I
Namibia
projected
population
by
variants:
2011
–
2041
4
le upon requests as well as on the NSA website.
are not provided herein will be made available upon requests as
Figure II
Projected Population for Namibia, Urban and Rural, 2015-2040:
of the United States of America (USA) through USAID, theI would like to recognize the government of the United State
Medium Variant
4
UNFPA for providing technical and financial support duringUnited States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providi
Figure III
Urban and Rural Projected Population, 2011-2041: Medium Variant 5
n report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic andthe production of the population projection report. The NSA t
Figure IV
Projected Populations by Regions, 2011 and 2041: Medium Variant
5
, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to theVital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncount
Figure V Projected Population by Region, 2015 and 2030: Medium Variant
6
ndings in this report will be turned into practice in order toproduction of this report. I hope that the findings in this repor
Figureproductively.
VI (a) Population Pyramid for Namibia, 2015
RELTY7ETissues
S NHOJare
.RDaddressed prod
are addressed
ensure that our national development
Figure VII (b) Population Pyramid for Namibia, 2030 LARENEG–7NAICITSITATS
YCNEGA SCITSIT8ATS AIBIMAN
Figure VIII (a) Population Pyramid for Urban, 2015 i
1 to 2041
Figure IX (b) Population Pyramid for Urban, 2030 Figure X (a) Population Pyramid for Rural, 2015 Figure XI (b) Population Pyramid for Rural, 2030 8
9
9
APPENDICES
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
APPEDIX I: METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
APPENDIX II: NATIONAL HIGH VARIANT
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
APPENDIX III: NATIONAL LOW VARIANT
APPENDIX IV: NATIONAL AND SUB-NATIONALS MEDIUM VARIANT
49
49
51
53
55
APPENDIX V: TEAM MEMBERS OF NAMIBIA POPULATION PROJECTIONS REPORT
57
1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
REFERENCES
i
iv
58
Namibia 2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
Foreword
Summary Highlights and Guide to Core Tables
FOREWARD
1 - BACKGROUND
a) Population
provide
a glimpse
of some
of theprerequisite
most basic characteristics
of human
societies in
Informationprojections
about future
population
is an
important
for any objective
and realistic
the
future
their
size
and
composition
by
age
and
sex.
They
also
provide
an
important
tool
for
development plan. Population projections provide information on the total population, age andplanning
sex
and
policymaking.
This
report
provides
population
projections
for
Namibia,
urban/rural
areas,
structure of the future population of a country. Such information is essential for the formulation as
of well
as
regions
from
year
2011
to
2041.
The
report
also
documents
the
methods
and
assumptions
used
to
national development programmes, as well as monitoring and evaluating the implementation of all
calculate the projections.
Foreword
development plans and programs at national and regional levels.
The last population projections were produced by the Central Bureau of Statistics based on 1991 and
FOREWARD
b) Objectives
the report
2001 censusofdata
and were released in 1994 and 2004 respectively. It should be appreciated that
Information
future
is basis
an important
prerequisite
objective
andof realistic
populationabout
projections
arepopulation
made on the
of assumptions
relating tofortheany
future
behaviour
the
The main objective of the report is to provide future population trends that are essential in the formulation
development
plan. mortality
Population
provide information
on the of
total
population,
ageThis
and
levels of fertility,
andprojections
migration, which
up the components
population
change.
is sex
of national
development
programmes,
as well make
as monitoring
and evaluating
the implementation
of
rd
structure
the
future
population
of a have
country.
Such
information
essential
formulation
the 3 of
time
that
population
projections
been
constructed
bothisnational
andfor
regional
levels. to:
The of
development
plans
and
programs
at national
and
regional
levels.atSpecific
objectives
arethe
therefore
national
development
programmes,
as from
well 2011
as monitoring
evaluating
theprojection
implementation
of all
projected
period is thirty
years, that is,
(base year) and
to 2041.
Additional
tables that
i.
Provide
information
on
total
population,
age
and
sex
structure
of
future
population
of
Namibia,
development
plans herein
and programs
at national
regional
levels.
are not provided
will be made
availableand
upon
requests
as well as on the NSA website.
ii.I last
Serve
as to
therecognize
tool
for providing
demographic
characteristics
of population
of the
country.
The
population
projections
werefuture
produced
byUnited
the Central
of
Statistics
based
on
1991
would
like
the government
of the
States Bureau
of America
(USA) through
USAID,
the and
2001
census
data
and were
released
1994
andfor
2004
respectively.
should
be support
appreciated
United
States
of America
Census
Bureauinand
UNFPA
providing
technicalItand
financial
during that
population
projections
made on
the basisreport.
of assumptions
relating
to the the
future
behaviourand
of the
the production
of theare
population
projection
The NSA team,
particularly
Demographic
c)
Censuses
levels
of Statistics
fertility, mortality
migration,
which
up the components
of population
change.
This is
Vital
division, and
as well
as UNAM,
formake
the uncountable
determinations
dedicated
to the
rd
the production
3 time that
population
projections
have
beeninconstructed
at both
national
regional
levels.
of population
this
report. Icount
hope by
thatage
the
findings
this report
will
be
intoand
practice
in order
to The
The
2011
census
and
sex provides
the basis
forturned
the
initial
year
of the
projections.
projected
period
isnational
thirty
years,
that in
is,issues
from are
2011
(base
year)
to 2041. in
Additional
projection
tables were
that
ensure
that ourwas
development
addressed
productively.
The
2011 census
the third
taken
Namibia
since
its independence
1990. The
prior censuses
are not provided
will be
made
available
conducted
in 1991herein
and 2001
(NSA,
2013:
p. 25). upon requests as well as on the NSA website.
I would
like todate
recognize
the government
United
America (USA)
USAID, the
The
reference
of the 2011
census was of
28 the
August.
TheStates
officialofpopulation
countthrough
was 2,113,077;
the
vast
majority
resided
in
private
households
(2,064,
489),
with
other
portions
in
institutions
and
special
United States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providing technical and financial support during
population
groups
(48,588).
These projection
figures reflect
theThe
defacto
– counting
where they
the production
of the
population
report.
NSA approach
team, particularly
thepeople
Demographic
and
actually
resided
at
the
time
of
the
census.
As
documented
later
in
this
report,
some
slight
adjustments
to
Vital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to the
the
2011 census counts were made prior to beginning the projections.
production of this report. I hope that the findings in this report will be turned into practice in order to
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS
AGENCY
d) Administrative
Boundaries
At the time when the 2011 census was conducted Namibia had 13 regions and 107 constituencies. These
are the first level and second level administrative units in Namibia. In 2013 there were several changes
made to these administrative boundaries. For instance, the Kavango region was divided into two regions –
Kavango East and Kavango West. Moreover, several new constituencies were created. Among the regions
only Erongo and Omaheke experienced no change in constituencies between 2001 and 2013. These changes
DR.administrative
JOHN STEYTLER
in
boundaries created challenges for producing population projections as per the new
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
boundaries.
More precise geospatial information is required about these boundary changes before reliable
NAMIBIA STATISTICS
population
projectionsAGENCY
can be provided for Kavango’s newly divided regions and for its constituencies.
e) Assumptions of population projections
Census a
Population
Projections
2011 to 2041
ThisNamibia
section2011
highlights
summary
on assumptions
for population projections. More details are to appear in
i
the methodology section in the appendix.
i
The base population was adjusted upward due to the assumed tendency of underreporting of children
onboth national and sub-national levels. Moreover, the census population was backdated from the reference
time of the census (August 28, 2011) to midyear (July 1, 2011). Thus, as a result, the mid-year population is
(2.116 million), higher than the census count (2.113 million).
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
1
i
i
droweroF
Summary Highlights and Guide to Core Tables
RAWEROFand
Table (I) summarizes fertility and mortality assumptions from 2011 to 2041 for Namibia, D
urban/rural
regions. The national estimated Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 3.9 children per woman in Namibia (NSA, 2014a)
citsilaer dto
nadecline
evitcejb
o yna to
rof2.4
etiby
siu2041.
qererpProjected
tnatropmTFR
i nafor
si sub-national
noitalupop ewas
rutualso
f tuoassumed
ba noitam
fnI
was assumed
linearly
torodecline
xes There
dna egis
a ,substantial
noitalupop variation
latot eht nino the
noitestimated
amrofni edTFRs
ivorp for
snosub-national
itcejorp noitalareas
upoP in
.na2011.
lp tnem
poinstance,
leved
linearly.
For
fo nregions
oitalumKunene
rof eht rhas
of lathe
itnehighest
sse si noTFR
itam(5.3)
rofniwhile
hcuS Khomas
.yrtnuoc has
a fo the
noitlowest
alupop (2.9).
erutufThe
ehtprojected
fo erutcurTFR
ts is
among
expected
to
decline
by
2041;
for
instance
TFR
is
expected
to
decline
to
2.9children
in
Kunene
and
2.1children
lla fo noitatnemelpmi eht gnitaulave dna gnirotinom sa llew sa ,semmargorp tnempoleved lanoitan
in Khomas.
.sForeword
level lanoiger dna lanoitan ta smargorp dna snalp tnempoleved
Deaths
dnawere
1991assumed
no desabtoscbe
itsitunderreported
atS fo uaeruB laat
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assumed to improve for both males and females. In
taht detaicerppa eb dluohs tI .ylevitcepser 4002 dna 4991 ni desaeler erew dna atad susnec 1002
2011 Namibian men can expect to live 53 years, compared to 61 for females. However, it should be noted
n important eprerequisite
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ht fo ruoivahefor
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theerestimated
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provide information
on
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projections
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i
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to
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and
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and regional levels.
regional levels
.etisbew ASN eht no sa llew sa stseuqerdevelopment
nopu elbaliavaplans
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2011 census counts provides indirect estimates of average annual net migration by age and sex
migration
2001
ced by the
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mnrevocounts
gprojections
eht eprovides
zingocewere
r oindirect
t eproduced
kil dlestimates
uow Iby the Central
foraverage
Namibia,
urban/rural
areas and
regions.
The
projections
use these areas
estimates
which are
of
annual
net
migration
by
age
and
sex
for
Namibia,
urban/rural
and
regions.
The
projections
994 and 2004gnrespectively.
census
irud troppus laIt
icnshould
anif dna be
lacinappreciated
hcet gnidivorpthat
rof2001
APFNU
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usnewere
C acirereleased
mA fo setain
tS 1994
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assumed
toestimates
remain constant
from
2011 toto2041
(seeconstant
core tables).
use
these
which
are
assumed
remain
from
2011
to
2041
(see
core
tables).
sis of assumptions
dna cihrelating
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2011 (base year) to 2041. Additional projection
ispthirty
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lanoitathat
n ruois,tafrom
ht eru2011
sne (base year) t
2011
2041
Male
Female
Male
Female
le upon requests
are not60.5
provided herein
made available upon requests as
Namibia as well as on the
3.9NSA website.
2.4
53.3
64.1 will be 72.1
of the United
(USA) through
USAID,
like to recognize
the government
of the United State
UrbanStates of America3.2
2.3
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62.9
66.4
73.5
Rural
4.6
2.7
49.4
58.1
58.9
69.2
UNFPA for providing technical and financial support duringUnited States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providi
n report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic andthe production of the population projection report. The NSA t
62.9
67.1
70.9
76.6
Erongo
3.2
2.2
, for the Hardap
uncountable determinations
dedicated
to
division,
as well
3.7
2.4
52.4theVital Statistics
58.5
62.5
70.2 as UNAM, for the uncount
ndings in this
in order
report. I hope
Karasreport will be turned
3.4 into practice
2.3
55.6 toproduction
59.4 of this65.9
71.0that the findings in this repor
44.0
52.9
54.6
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Kavango
4.7
2.7
RELTYETissues
S NHOJare
.RDaddressed prod
are addressed productively.
ensure that our national development
Khomas
2.9
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Kunene
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DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
f) Methods used in calculating population projections
f) Methods used in calculating population projections
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
i
1 to 2041
The cohort component method was used in calculating population projections. This method uses
The cohort component
was used
in calculating
projections.
This method
information
in past onmethod
population
size, births,
deathspopulation
and migration.
This method
reflects the actual
processes
throughinwhich
change.
this and
method
provides
output
with summarized
uses information
past populations
on population
size, Moreover,
births, deaths
migration.
This
method
demographic
indicators
(population
growth
and
related
rates),
as
well
as
more
measures
of demographic
reflects the actual processes through which populations change. Moreover, this method
change, such as life expectancy at birth and total 1fertility
rates.
402 ot 11(population
02 snoitcejorPgrowth
noitalupand
oP surelated
sneC 1102 aibimaN
provides output with summarized demographic indicators
i
rates), as
well as more
measures
of demographic
change,
such
as life expectancy
at birth
Cohort
component
projections
were
developed for
national,
urban/rural
and regions.
The sub-national
cohort
component
projections were adjusted slightly to ensure that their sum matched the projection
and total
fertility rates.
for national.
Cohort component projections were developed for national, urban/rural and regions. The
The
2006 population
projectionprojections
report also
used
cohortslightly
component
methods
(CBS,sum
2006). Although
sub-national
cohort component
were
adjusted
to ensure
that their
both the 2001 and 2011 population projections reports used similar methods, it is worth mentioning a
matched the projection for national.
number of things that may be of interest to users:
(CBS,
2006). 2011 to 2041
Namibiacomponent
2011
i
Censusmethods
Population
Projections
2 The 2006 population projection report also used cohort
i
Although both the 2001 and 2011 population projections
reports used similar methods, it is
Foreword
Summary Highlights and Guide to Core Tables
FOREWARD
• The cohort component projections were performed with software from the U.S. Census Bureau (RUP);
consistency between the national and sub-national areas were maintained using accompanying
Information
about from
future
is Projections
an important
prerequisite
for any websites).
objective and realistic
spreadsheets
its population
Sub-national
Toolkit
(see referenced
development plan. Population projections provide information on the total population, age and sex
• Tablesofwere
selected
and organized
with the
of users
in mind as
provided
structure
the future
population
of a country.
Suchneeds
information
is essential
forper
the inputs
formulation
of by
stakeholders
during
workshop
conducted
in
June
2014:
national development programmes, as well as monitoring and evaluating the implementation of all
development
plans
and
at national
and
levels. date, as well as the following Foreword
o Age
and
sexprograms
details are
provided
forregional
the publication
two years
(2014, 2015 and 2016), the year of the likely next census (2021) and five years beyond that
The last population
FOREWARD
(2026). projections were produced by the Central Bureau of Statistics based on 1991 and
2001 census data and were released in 1994 and 2004 respectively. It should be appreciated that
oabout
Somefuture
figures
and
statistics
in
Highlights
2030,
a yearand
ofofparticular
Information
is basis
anthe
important
prerequisite
any
objective
realistic
population
projections
arepopulation
made
on the
ofSummary
assumptions
relating refer
tofortheto
future
behaviour
the
interest
for many
users.
development
plan.
Population
provide
information
on the of
total
population,
ageThis
and
levels of fertility,
mortality
andprojections
migration, which
make
up the components
population
change.
is sex
rd
structure
the
future
population
of a have
country.
information
essential
the formulation
the 3 of
time
that
population
projections
been Such
constructed
at bothisnational
andfor
regional
levels. The of
national
development
programmes,
as from
well 2011
as monitoring
evaluating
theprojection
implementation
of all
projected
period is thirty
years, that is,
(base year) and
to 2041.
Additional
tables that
g)
Projections
and
Uncertainty.
development
plans herein
and programs
at national
regional
levels.
are not provided
will be made
availableand
upon
requests
as well as on the NSA website.
Population
estimates
and projections
in produced
this report
are
based
on analyses
ofofthe
2011through
census,
prior
censuses,
TheI last
population
projections
were
by
the
Central
Bureau
Statistics
basedUSAID,
on 1991
would
like to recognize
the government
of the
United
States
of America
(USA)
the and
estimates
of
demographic
change
based
on
vital
registration
and
surveys,
as
well
as
assumed
trends
of past
2001
census
data
and were
released
1994
andfor
2004
respectively.
should
be support
appreciated
United
States
of America
Census
Bureauinand
UNFPA
providing
technicalItand
financial
during that
and future demographic change. Estimates and projections based on existing data sources are subject to
population
projections
made on
the basisreport.
of assumptions
relating
to the the
future
behaviourand
of the
the production
of theare
population
projection
The NSA team,
particularly
Demographic
uncertainty. In addition, empirical data used in this report was collected no later than 2013. This report
levels
of Statistics
fertility,
mortality
and
migration,
which
up
thevariant
components
of population
change.
This is
Vital
division, by
aspresenting
well
as UNAM,
formake
the
determinations
dedicated
to the
acknowledges
uncertainty
high
variant
anduncountable
low
projections
of national
population.
rd
the production
3 time that
population
have
beeninconstructed
at both
national
regional
levels.
of this
report. Iprojections
hope that the
findings
this report will
be turned
intoand
practice
in order
to The
projected
thirty years,
that is,issues
from are
2011
(base year)
to 2041. Additional projection tables that
ensure period
that ourisnational
development
addressed
productively.
are not provided herein will be made available upon requests as well as on the NSA website.
h) Organisation of the report
I would
likeis to
recognize
government
the United
States ofinformation;
America (USA)
through
USAID, the
The
report
organised
as the
follows:
Section 1ofprovides
background
Section
2 highlights
the
United
States
of
America
Census
Bureau
and
UNFPA
for
providing
technical
and
financial
support
during
findings; Section 3 presents the core tables on population projections for national and sub-nationals for
the production
the
population
projection
report. area,
The NSA
team, particularly
the the
Demographic
and
medium
variant.ofFor
Namibia
and each
sub-national
a separate
table showing
projected total
Vital Statistics
division,
as well
as and
UNAM,
for theofuncountable
determinations
dedicated
the
population
size (by
sex), growth
rates
components
change for each
year is presented
for theto
period
2011-2041.
set of tables
for eachinarea
projected
population
structure
by sex
production Another
of this report.
I hope presented
that the findings
this show
reportthe
will
be turned
into practice
in order
to
and
five-year
age
groups
(to
80+)
for
selected
years
–
2014,
2015,
2016,
2021
and
2026.
Additional
tables
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
for Namibia
as a whole present population structure by sex and single-years of age. An Appendix provides
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
results
of high
and low AGENCY
variant projections, as well as broad indicators of age structure and dependency
NAMIBIA
STATISTICS
ratio by area.
2 – SUMMARY HIGHLIGHTS ON POPULATION PROJECTIONS
This section highlights key findings of the population projections. The highlighted findings are all drawn
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
from a set of tables, which constitute the bulk of this report. The contents and organization of core tables
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
are described later on in this section.
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
a) Highlights on Population Projections
Figure I shows that population size for the medium variant in 2041 will be 3.44 million. The range of lowNamibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
high projections in 2041 is 3.20 to 3.59 million.
i
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
3
i
i
i
a) Highlights on Population Projections
Figure I shows that population size for the medium variant in 2041 will be 3.44 million. The
droweroF
Summary Highlights and Guide to Core Tables
range of low-high projections in 2041 is 3.20 to 3.59 million.
DRAWEROF
projected population
population by
by variants:
variants: 2011
2011 -- 2041
2041
Figure I Namibia projected
4,000,000
citsilaer dna evitcejbo yna rof etisiuqererp tnatropmi na si noitalupop erutuf tuoba noitamrofnI
xes dna ega ,noitalupop latot eht no noitamrofni edivorp snoitcejorp noitalupoP .nalp tnempoleved
3,500,000
fo noitalumrof eht rof laitnesse si noitamrofni hcuS .yrtnuoc a fo noitalupop erutuf eht fo erutcurts
lla fo noitatnemelpmi eht gnitaulave dna gnirotinom sa llew sa ,semmargorp tnempoleved lanoitan
3,000,000
.sForeword
level lanoiger dna lanoitan ta smargorp dna snalp tnempoleved
Population
d2,500,000
na 1991 no desab scitsitatS fo uaeruB lartneC ehFOREWARD
t yb decudorp erew snoitcejorp noitalupop tsal ehT
taht detaicerppa eb dluohs tI .ylevitcepser 4002 dna 4991 ni desaeler erew dna atad susnec 1002
2,000,000
n important eprerequisite
important
prere
ht fo ruoivahefor
b erany
utuf eobjective
ht ot gnitaand
ler snrealistic
oitpmusInformation
sa fo sisab ehabout
t no edafuture
m era spopulation
noitcejorp nis
oitaan
lupo
p
provide information
population,
informatio
si sihT .eon
gnahthe
c nototal
italupo
p fo stnenopage
moc and
eht psex
u ekdevelopment
am hcihw ,noitplan.
argim Population
dna ytilatromprojections
,ytilitref fo sprovide
level
1,500,000
untry. Such information
ehT .slevel laisnoessential
iger dna lafor
noitathe
n htformulation
ob ta detcurtsof
nostructure
c neeb evaof
h sthe
noitcfuture
ejorp npopulation
oitalupop tahof
t eamicountry.
t dr3 eht Such informa
l as monitoring
tahtand
selbaevaluating
t noitcejorpthe
lanoimplementation
itiddA .1402 ot )raeof
y eall
sanational
b( 1102 mdevelopment
orf ,si taht ,sraeprogrammes,
y ytrLow
iht si doireas
p dwell
etcejoasrpmonitoring an
1,000,000
and regional levels.
.etisbew ASN eht no sa llew sa stseuqerdevelopment
nopu elbaliavaplans
edamand
eb lprograms
liw niereh datednational
ivorp tonand
era regional levels
Medium
500,000
Central
Bureau
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
ced by the eht ,DIASU hguof
orhStatistics
t )ASU( acbased
iremA fon
o se1991
tatS dand
etinThe
U ehlast
t fo population
tnemnrevogprojections
eht ezinHigh
gocewere
r ot eproduced
kil dluow Iby the Central
994 and 2004gnrespectively.
census
irud troppus laIt
icnshould
anif dna be
lacinappreciated
hcet gnidivorpthat
rof2001
APFNU
dna uadata
eruB sand
usnewere
C acirereleased
mA fo setain
tS 1994
detinUand 2004 resp
0
sis of assumptions
dna cihrelating
pargometo
D ethe
ht ylfuture
ralucitrabehaviour
p ,maet ASof
N ethe
hT population
.troper noitcprojections
ejorp noitaluare
pop made
eht fo on
noithe
tcudbasis
orp ehof
t assumptions
hich make up ethe
and
ht ocomponents
t detacided of
snopopulation
itanimreted change.
elbatnuoThis
cnu is
elevels
ht rof of
,Mfertility,
ANU sa mortality
llew sa ,n
oisivmigration,
id scitsitatwhich
S latiVmake up the c
rd
e been constructed
ot redrat
o nboth
i ecitnational
carp otni and
denruregional
t eb lliw levels.
troper sThe
iht the
ni sg3nidtime
nif ehthat
t tahpopulation
t epoh I .troprojections
per siht fo nohave
itcudbeen
orp constructed
2011 (base year) to 2041. Additional projection
ispthirty
that
from
(base year) t
.ylevitcutables
dois
rpexpected
dethat
sserprojected
ddatoerincrease
a seuperiod
ssi tfrom
nem
olevemillion
dyears,
lanoitato
n 2.96
ruois,tamillion
ht eru2011
sni.e.
e an
Figure II shows that the national population
2.28
le upon requests
as on the
NSA website.
not areas
provided
herein willtobe
made
available
upon requests as
increaseas
of well
30 percent
between
year 2015 and 2030.are
Urban
are expected
grow
rapidly,
in contrast
Figure
showswhich
that are
the projected
national population
is expected to increase from 2.28 million to 2.96
to
ruralIIareas,
to shrink gradually.
Projected Population
of the United
States
Americaof(USA)
through
USAID,
the2015
I would
like
toUrban
recognize
the United State
Summary
Highlights
and
Guide
to Core
million
i.e. anofincrease
30 percent
between
year
and
2030.
areasthe
aregovernment
expected
to ofTables
UNFPA for providing technical and financial support duringUnited States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providi
grow rapidly, in contrast to rural areas, which are projected to shrink gradually.
n report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic andthe production of the population projection report. The NSA t
FigureIIIIProjected
ProjectedPopulation
Population
Namibia,
Urban
and Rural,
2015-2040:
Medium
Figure
forfor
Namibia,
Urban
and Rural,
2015-2040:
Medium
VariantVariant
, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to theVital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncount
4,000,000
ndings in this report will be turned into practice in order toproduction of this report. I hope that the findings in this repor
RELTYETissues
S NHOJare
.RDaddressed prod
are addressed 3,500,000
productively.
ensure that our national development
L
A
R
E
N
E
G
–
N
A
I
C
I
T
S
I
T
A
TS
3,000,000
YCNEGA SCITSITATS AIBIMAN
Namibia2,500,000
2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
5
5
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
2015
2020
Namibia
2,280,716
2,504,498
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
2025 NAMIBIA
2030STATISTICS
2035
AGENCY 2040
2,733,338
2,960,542
3,185,005
3,401,887
Urban
1,068,625
1,295,820
1,531,917
1,770,807
2,011,793
2,256,123
Rural
1,212,091
1,208,678
1,201,421
1,189,735
1,173,212
1,145,764
0
i
1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
Thepercentage
those
living
in urban
is projected
to increase
from 43inpercent
in percent
2011
ipercentage
The
forfor
those
living
in urban
areasareas
is projected
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from 43 percent
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in
(Figure III).This
is an
indication
that Namibia
will transitthat
fromNamibia
being a mostly
rural society
a mostly
to2041
67 percent
in 2041
(Figure
III).This
is an indication
will transit
from tobeing
a
urban one – with the percent living in urban areas projected to be more than 60 percent.
mostly rural society to a mostly urban one – with the percent living in urban areas projected to
be more than 60 percent.
Figure III Urban and Rural Projected Population, 2011-2041: Medium Variant
2,500,000
Urban
1 to 2041 4
NamibiaRural
2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
The percentage for those living in urban areas is projected to increase from 43 percent in 2011
to 67 percent in 2041 (Figure III).This is an indication that Namibia will transit from being a
mostly rural society to a mostly urban one – with the percent living in urban areas projected to
Foreword
Summary Highlights and Guide to Core Tables
be more than 60 percent.
Figure
III
Rural
Projected
Population,
2011-2041:
Medium
Variant Variant
Figure
IIIUrban
Urbanand
and
Rural
Projected
Population,
2011-2041:
Medium
FOREWARD
2,500,000
Urban
Rural
Projecteed population
Information about future population is an important prerequisite for any objective and realistic
development plan. Population projections provide information on the total population, age and sex
2,000,000
structure
of the future population of a country. Such information is essential for the formulation of
national development programmes, as well as monitoring and evaluating the implementation of all
Foreword
development plans and programs at national and regional levels.
1,500,000
The last population projections were produced by the Central Bureau of Statistics based on 1991 and
FOREWARD
2001 census data and were released in 1994 and 2004 respectively. It should be appreciated that
1,000,000
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Additional
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development
plans herein
and programs
at national
regional
levels.
are not provided
will be made
availableand
upon
requests
as well as on the NSA website.
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
0
TheI last
population
projections
were produced
byUnited
the Central
of Statistics
based
on Tables
1991
would
like to recognize
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of the
States Bureau
of Highlights
America
(USA)
through
USAID,
the and
Summary
and Guide
to Core
Year
2001
census
data
and were
released
1994
and
2004
respectively.
should
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appreciated
United
States
of America
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theIV
production
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Demographic
Figure
shows
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byreport.
regions.
the
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for
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is the
Figure
IV
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by
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for
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expected
levels
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fertility, mortality
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for Khomas
Erongo are
andexpected
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areincrease
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rd
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and
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have
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hope that the
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this report will
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intoand
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6 projected
the rest
of
the regions.
By 2041
a large
portion of
Namibia’s
projected
population
is expected
to live in the
most
as
compared
to
the
rest
of
the
regions.
By
2041
a
large
portion
of
Namibia’s
projected
thirty years,
that is,issues
from are
2011
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to 2041. Additional projection tables that
ensure period
that ourisnational
development
addressed
productively.
Khomas andisErongo
regions.
population
expected
to
live
in
the
Khomas
and
Erongo
regions.
are not provided herein will be made available upon requests as well as on the NSA website.
200,000
100,000
0
Khomas
Ohangwena
Omusati
Kavango
Oshikoto
Oshana
Erongo
Otjozondjupa
Zambezi
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Kunene
Hardap
//Karas
2041
Omaheke
Projected Population
I would like to recognize the government of the United States of America (USA) through USAID, the
Figure
Projected
Populations
Regions,
2011
2041:
Medium
Variant
Figure
IV States
Projected
byby
Regions,
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andand
2041:
Medium
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United
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900,000
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Vital 800,000
Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to the
700,000
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DR.600,000
JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
500,000
NAMIBIA
400,000STATISTICS AGENCY
2011
300,000
b) Wide
Growth
By Area
b)
WideVariation
VariationininPopulation
Population
Growth
By Area
Most of
development
programs
areare
directed
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meeting
targets
by years
Most
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the national
national
development
programs
directed
towards
meeting
targets
by 2015
yearsand
Namibia
Census Population
Projections
2011 to 2041
2030.
Figure2011
V shows
that projected
population
growth varies widely among regions between 2015-2030.
i
2015
and 2030.
Figure
V shows that
projected
population
among
regions
For instance,
Khomas
is projected
to grow
most rapidly,
by 60 growth
percent,varies
with a widely
numerical
increase
of over
between
2015-2030.
instance,
is projected
projectedtotogrow
grow
rapidly,
60same
percent,
200 thousand.
Erongo, For
another
urban Khomas
magnet, is
by most
57 percent
overbythe
interval.
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other increase
regions such
as Omaheke
and Omusati
areanother
expected
to grow
by less
than 10 percent.
with
a numerical
of over
200 thousand.
Erongo,
urban
magnet,
is projected
to
Again, these projected differences in growth by area reflect the assumption that net migration patterns (as
grow
by 57
over
the same
In contrast, other regions such as Omaheke and
estimated
forpercent
the period
2001-2011)
willinterval.
remain constant.
Omusati are expected to grow by less than 10 percent. Again, these projected differences in
growth by area reflect the assumption that net migration patterns (as estimated for the period
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
5
2001-2011)
will remain constant.
i
i
i
Summary Highlights and Guide to Core Tables
droweroF
Summary Highlights and Guide to Core Tables
Figure V Projected Population by Region, 2015 and 2030: Medium Variant
Figure V Projected Population by Region, 2015 and 2030: Medium Variant
DRAWEROF
Khomas
Ohangwena
Omusati
Kavango
Oshikoto
Oshana
Erongo
Otjozondjupa
Zambezi
Kunene
Hardap
//Karas
Omaheke
Projected Population
700,000
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Population
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areas
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following
figures.
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area
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two
points
in
2011 (base year) to 2041. Additional projection
ispthirty
.ylevitcutables
dorp dethat
sserprojected
dda era seuperiod
ssi tnem
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n ruois,tafrom
ht eru2011
sne (base year) t
Population
pyramids
for
national,
urban/rural
areas
are
shown
in
the
following
figures.
Each
time – 2015 and 2030. The population structure of Namibia in 2015 is indeed fairly pyramid-shaped, with
le upon requests as well as on the NSA website.
are not provided herein will be made available upon requests as
someshows
slight indentation
groups.
By 2050
wepopulation
expect the structure
populationof
toNamibia
become more
likeisa
area
two pointsatincertain
time –age
2015
and 2030.
The
in 2015
rectangle
at theAmerica
youngest(USA)
ages due
to falling
fertility,
the to
pyramid
shape
above
age 30 will
of the United
States
through
USAID,
theIalthough
would like
the
government
of remain
thewe
United State
indeed
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with some
slight
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atrecognize
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By 2050
intact.
UNFPA for providing technical and financial support duringUnited States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providi
expect the population to become more like a rectangle at the youngest ages due to falling
n report. Within
The NSA
team,age
particularly
the Demographic
and
the production
of the
population projection
report.
Namibia
and sex structure
vary by area.
Population
pyramids
for urban/rural,
for instance,
show The NSA t
fertility, although the pyramid shape above age 30 will remain intact.
, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to theVital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncount
notably different shapes. In 2015, rural shows a hollowing out at young and middle adult ages due largely
to migration
to urban
areasinto
(Figures
VIII (a)
X (a)).
By 2030 the
ruralreport.
age-sexI hope
pattern
suggests
an even
ndings in this
report will
be turned
practice
in and
order
toproduction
of this
that
the findings
in this repor
Within
Namibia age
and sex
structure
vary
by area.
Population pyramids for urban/rural, for
smaller
proportion
of
adults
in
the
population
(Figure
XI
(b)).
RELTYETissues
S NHOJare
.RDaddressed prod
are addressed productively.
ensure that our national development
instance, show notably different shapes. In 2015, rural shows a hollowing
LARENout
EG–Nat
AICyoung
ITSITATSand
Given the anticipated fertility decline the population is expected to become less
young
time.
CNEG
A Sand
CITover
SITXAT(a)).
S AIBBy
IBetween
MA2030
N
middle adult ages due largely to migration to urban areas (FiguresYVIII
(a)
2015 and 2030 the share of the population under age 15 is projected to fall from 36.4 to 33.7 percent (see
the
rural
age-sex Tables
pattern
suggests
anwill
even
smaller
proportion
of fall
adults
in areas.
the population
details
in Appendix
A5 and
A6). This
be driven
by an
even sharper
in rural
Declines in
the proportion
(Figure
XI (b)).of the population under 15 are accompanied by declines in the youth dependency ratio (the
proportion at ages 0-14 divided by those at ages 15-64).
Given the anticipated fertility decline the population is expected to become less young over
time. Between 2015 and 2030 the share of the population
under age 15 is projected to fall from
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
In contrast there is little or no change anticipated in the percent share of the population at older ages. The
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
36.4
to 33.7
(see details
Appendix
Tables
A5 andinA6).
driven by an even
proportion
of percent
the population
at 65+ isinexpected
to be
4.5 percent
bothThis
2015will
andbe
2030.
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
sharper fall in rural areas. Declines in the proportion of the population under 15 are
accompanied by declines in the youth dependency ratio (the proportion at ages 0-14 divided by
those at ages 15-64).
i
1 to 2041
1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
i
8
6
Namibia 2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
In contrast there is little or no change anticipated in the percent share of the population at
older ages. The proportion of the population at 65+ is expected to be 4.5 percent in both 2015
older ages. The proportion of the population at 65+ is expected to be 4.5 percent in both 2015
and 2030.
Foreword
Summary Highlights and Guide to Core Tables
and 2030.
Figure VI (a) Population Pyramid for Namibia, 2015
Figure
VI(a)
(a)Population
PopulationPyramid
Pyramid
Namibia,
2015
Figure
VI
forfor
Namibia,
2015
FOREWARD
80+
80+
Information about future population is an important prerequisite for any objective and realistic
70-74
development plan. Population projections provide information on the total population, age and sex
70-74
Female
60-64
structure of the future population of a country. Such Female
information is essential for the formulation of
60-64
Male
national development programmes, as well as monitoring
50-54
Male and evaluating the implementation of all
Foreword
50-54
development plans and programs at national and regional levels.
40-44
40-44
The last population projections were produced by the Central Bureau of Statistics based on 1991 and
30-34
FOREWARD
30-34
2001 census data and were released in 1994 and 2004 respectively. It should be appreciated that
20-24
Information
future
is basis
an important
prerequisite
objective
andof realistic
populationabout
projections
arepopulation
made on the
of assumptions
relating tofortheany
future
behaviour
the
20-24
development
plan. mortality
Population
provide
information
on the of
total
population,
ageThis
and
10-14
levels of fertility,
andprojections
migration, which
make
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population
change.
is sex
10-14 rd
structure
the
future
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of a have
country.
information
essential
the formulation
the 3 of
time
that
population
projections
been Such
constructed
at bothisnational
andfor
regional
levels. The of
0-4
0-4
national
development
programmes,
as from
well 2011
as monitoring
evaluating
theprojection
implementation
of all
projected
period is thirty
years, that is,
(base year) and
to 2041.
Additional
tables that
150,000 100,000 50,000
0
50,000 100,000 150,000
development
plans
and programs
at 0national
and
regional
levels.
are
not provided
herein
will be made
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requests
as150,000
well as on the NSA website.
150,000
100,000
50,000
50,000
100,000
TheI last
population
projections
were produced
byUnited
the Central
of Statistics
basedUSAID,
on 1991
would
like to recognize
the government
of the
States Bureau
of America
(USA) through
the and
2001
census
data
and were
released
1994
andfor
2004
respectively.
should
be support
appreciated
United
States
of America
Census
Bureauinand
UNFPA
providing
technicalItand
financial
during that
population
projections
are
made
on
the
basisreport.
of assumptions
relating
to the the
future
behaviourand
of the
the
of Pyramid
the
population
projection
The NSA team,
particularly
Demographic
Figure
VIIproduction
(b)Population
Population
Pyramid
Namibia,
Figure
VII
(b)
forfor
Namibia,
20302030
Figure
VII
(b)
Population
Pyramid
for
Namibia,
2030
levels
of Statistics
fertility, mortality
migration,
which
up the components
of population
change.
This is
Vital
division, and
as well
as UNAM,
formake
the uncountable
determinations
dedicated
to the
rd
80+
the80+
3 time that
population
have
beeninconstructed
at both
national
regional
levels.
production
of this
report. Iprojections
hope that the
findings
this report will
be turned
intoand
practice
in order
to The
projected
thirty years,
that is,issues
from are
2011
(base year)
to 2041. Additional projection tables that
ensure period
that ourisnational
development
addressed
productively.
70-74
Female
70-74
are not provided herein will be made available upon requests
Female as well as on the NSA website.
60-64
Male
Male States of America (USA) through USAID, the
I 60-64
would like to recognize the government of the United
50-54
United
50-54 States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providing technical and financial support during
the
production of the population projection report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic and
40-44
40-44Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to the
Vital
30-34
production
of this report. I hope that the findings in this report will be turned into practice in order to
30-34
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
20-24
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
20-24
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
10-14
10-14
0-4
0-4
150,000 100,000
50,000
0
50,000
100,000 150,000
150,000 100,000
50,000
0
50,000
100,000 150,000
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
9
9
i
i
7
i
i
Summary Highlights and Guide to Core Tables
row(a)
eroPopulation
F
FiguredVIII
Pyramid for Urban, 2015
Summary Highlights
and Highlights
Guide toand
Core
Tables
Summary
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to Core Tables
80+
Figure VIII
VIII (a)
(a)Population
PopulationPyramid
Pyramidfor
forUrban,
Urban,2015
2015
Figure
DRAWEROF
70-74
Female
80+
citsilaer dna evitcejbo yna rof etisiuqererp tnatropmi na si noitalupop erutuf tuoba noitamrofnI
Male
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70-74
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DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
10
i
1 to 2041
1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
i
10
8
Namibia 2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
Summary Highlights and Guide to Core Tables
Summary Highlights and Guide toForeword
Core Tables
Summary Highlights and Guide to Core Tables
Figure X (a) Population Pyramid for Rural, 2015
80+
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Information about future population is anFemale
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70-74
Female
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structure of the future population of a country. Such information is essential for the formulation of
50-54
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50-54
Foreword
40-44
development plans and programs at national and regional levels.
40-44
30-34
The last population projections were produced by the Central Bureau of Statistics based on 1991 and
30-34
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Figure
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XX(a)
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FOREWARD
TheI last
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were produced
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the Central
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basedUSAID,
on 1991
would
like to recognize
the government
of the
States Bureau
of America
(USA) through
the and
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census
data
and were
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1994
andfor
2004
respectively.
should
be support
appreciated
United
States
of America
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Bureauinand
UNFPA
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Figure
XI
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Figure
XI
(b)
Population
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projections
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future
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levels
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fertility, mortality
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rd
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70-74
projected
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70-74
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60-64
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I 50-54
would like to recognize the government of the United States of America (USA) through USAID, the
50-54 States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providing technical and financial support during
United
40-44
the
production of the population projection report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic and
40-44
30-34
Vital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to the
30-34
20-24
production
of this report. I hope that the findings in this report will be turned into practice in order to
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
20-24
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
10-14
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
10-14
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
0-4
0-4
100,000
50,000
100,000
50,000
0
Population
0
Population
50,000
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DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
11
11
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
9
i
i
droweroF
Core Tables
DRAWEVARIANT
ROF
3 –CORE TABLES ON POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR NATIONAL AND SUB-NATIONALS: MEDIUM
This section
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itathe
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will be
made
available
on
request
or
users
might
check
for
supplementary
information
on
the
NSA
website.
xes dna ega ,noitalupop latot eht no noitamrofni edivorp snoitcejorp noitalupoP .nalp tnempoleved
The tables
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the
lla fo noitatnemelpmi eht gnitaulave dna gnirotinom sa llew sa ,semmargorp tnempoleved lanoitanLow
variant assumes a low growth rate. However,
users are recommended to use the Medium variant.
Foreword
.slevel lanoiger dna lanoitan ta smargorp dna snalp tnempoleved
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994 and 2004gnrespectively.
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lacinappreciated
hcet gnidivorpthat
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APFNU
dna uadata
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usnewere
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sis of assumptions
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ht ocomponents
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elevels
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ANU sa mortality
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oisivmigration,
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rd
e been constructed
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n ruois,tafrom
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le upon requests as well as on the NSA website.
are not provided herein will be made available upon requests as
of the United States of America (USA) through USAID, theI would like to recognize the government of the United State
UNFPA for providing technical and financial support duringUnited States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providi
n report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic andthe production of the population projection report. The NSA t
, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to theVital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncount
ndings in this report will be turned into practice in order toproduction of this report. I hope that the findings in this repor
RELTYETissues
S NHOJare
.RDaddressed prod
are addressed productively.
ensure that our national development
LARENEG–NAICITSITATS
YCNEGA SCITSITATS AIBIMAN
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
i
1 to 2041
1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
i
10
Namibia 2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
Foreword
Medium Variant
FOREWARD
a)
POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR NAMIBIA: MEDIUM VARIANT
TableInformation
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DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
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1 749 802
1.255
0.94 67 795
25 665
0
2041
3 443 709
1 672 152
1 771 557
1.222
0.94 67 379
25 865
0
Note: “–“ Means Not Applicable
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
11
i
i
droweroF
Medium Variant
Table 1.2 Namibia Projected Population by Sex and Five-Year Age Group - 2014, 2015, 2016, 2021, 2026
DRAWEROF
Age
2014
2015
2016
2021
2026
Total
2 237 894
2 280 716
2 324 388
2 550 226
2 778 948
0 - 4 citsilaer dna313
337
evi007
tcejbo yna 317
rof 503
etisiuqererp 321
tna925
tropmi na s334
i no696
italupop eru
tuf168
tuoba noitamrofnI
5 - 9 xes dna ega 263
264
274
401
284
647
316
965
330
481
,noitalupop latot eht no noitamrofni edivorp snoitcejorp noitalupoP .nalp tnempoleved
10 - 14
239 023
238 160
239 623
282 565
315 005
fo noitalumr243
of e203
ht rof laitne243
sse 482
si noitamrofn242
i h819
cuS .yrtnuoc237
a fo
noitalupop280
eru485
tuf eht fo erutcurts
15 - 19
553
20 - 24
228
320
231
466
234
097
239
186
234
470
lla fo noitatnemelpmi eht gnitaulave dna gnirotinom sa llew sa ,semmargorp tnempoleved lanoitan
25 - 29
196 214
202 828
208 797
228 226
233 951
Foreword
lano854
iger dna lano200
itan654
ta smargorp220
dna466
snalp tnempoleved
30 - 34
159 244
163 689 .slevel 168
35 - 39
133 989
136 985
140 133
160 358
191 793
dna 1991 no108
des850
ab scitsitatS 112
fo u821
aeruB lartne116
C e501
hFOREWARD
t yb decudo132
rp e078
rew snoitce152
jorp198
noitalupop tsal ehT
40 - 44
45 - 49
86
084
88
195
90
798
108
983
124
353
taht detaicerppa eb dluohs tI .ylevitcepser 4002 dna 4991 ni desaeler erew dna atad susnec 1002
50 - 54
69 283
71 893
74 259
84 459
101 959
n important
important
prere
eprerequisite
ht fo ruoivah51
efor
b965
erany
utuf eobjective
ht o53
t g922
nitaand
ler snrealistic
oitpm
sInformation
sa fo sisab e68
habout
t 278
no edafuture
m era 78
spopulation
n075
oitcejorp nis
oitaan
lupo
p
55 - 59
56u074
60 - 64
451
provide information
total
population,
sex
informatio
si sihT .eon
gnahthe
c41no488
italupo
p fo st41
ne878
nopage
moc and
eht p42
u e602
kdevelopment
am hcihw ,n50
oitplan.
argim Population
dna ytila61tr761
omprojections
,ytilitref fo sprovide
level
65 information
- 69
34
untry. Such
ehT .slevel laisn33
oessential
ig735
er dna lafor
noitathe
n h576
tformulation
ob ta detcur35
tsof
n195
ostructure
c neeb evaof
h 37
sthe
n164
oitcfuture
ejorp npopulation
oita44
lup364
op tahof
t eamicountry.
t dr3 eht Such informa
70 - 74
24 388
24 718
25 233
28 842
30 740
l as monitoring
tahtand
selbaevaluating
t no17
itce037
jorpthe
lanoimplementation
itidd17
A .148
1402 ot )raeof
y17
eall
s264
anational
b( 1102 mdevelopment
orf18,si388
taht ,sraeprogrammes,
y yt21
rih188
t si doireas
p dwell
etcejoasrpmonitoring an
75 - 79
80+
28
800
27
051
25
567
21
380
20
491
and regional levels.
.etisbew ASN eht no sa llew sa stseuqerdevelopment
nopu elbaliavaplans
edamand
eb lprograms
liw niereh datednational
ivorp tonand
era regional levels
Male
1 087 178
1 108 276
1 129 754
1 240 295
1 351 542
ced by the
Central
eht ,DIBureau
ASU h158
guof
o229
rhStatistics
t )ASU( acbased
iremA fon
o se1991
tatS 162
dand
eti780
nThe
U ehlast
t fo population
tn169
emn210
revogprojections
eht e170
zing436
ocewere
r ot eproduced
kil dluow Iby the Central
0-4
160 550
994 and 2004
It
census
released
irud troppu132
s la713
icnshould
anif dna be
la138
cinappreciated
hcet gnidivor143
pthat
ro496
f2001
APFNU
dna159
uadata
e932
ruB sand
usnewere
C a166
cire716
mA fo setain
tS 1994
detinUand 2004 resp
5 - 9 gnrespectively.
313
10
14
119
477
119
349
120
339
142
263
158
740
sis of assumptions
dna cihrelating
pargometo
D ethe
ht ylfuture
ralucitrabehaviour
p ,maet ASof
N ethe
hT population
.troper noitcprojections
ejorp noitaluare
pop made
eht fo on
noithe
tcudbasis
orp ehof
t assumptions
15 - 19
119 995
120 385
120 328
119 177
141 055
hich make20up
levels
and
ethe
ht ocomponents
t detac112
ide074
d of
snopopulation
itanimr113
ete488
d change.
elbatnuoThis
cn114
u is
e753
ht rof of
,Mfertility,
A118
NU 198
sa mortality
llew sa 117
,n
oi309
sivmigration,
id scitsitatwhich
S latiVmake up the c
- 24
rd
25 - 29
99
the
e been constructed
ot redrat
o nboth
i eci96
tnational
ca205
rp otni and
denruregional
t e547
b lliw levels.
troper102
sThe
iht475
ni sg3nidtime
nif e111
hthat
t t400
ahpopulation
t epoh I .t115
roprojections
pe133
r siht fo nohave
itcudbeen
orp constructed
30 - 34
77 560
79 543
81 979
97 866
106 963
2011 (base year) to 2041. Additional projection
ispthirty
.ylevitcutables
dorp dethat
sserprojected
dda era seuperiod
s76
si t998
nem
olevedyears,
la92
no594
itathat
n ruois,tafrom
ht eru2011
sne (base year) t
35 - 39
65 263
66 664
68 080
le upon requests
the NSA website.
are not provided
be001
made available upon requests as
40 - 44 as well as52on
124
54 020
55 781
63 137herein will72
45 - 49
40 171
41 197
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80+
130 551
119 546
123 208
116 246
100 009
81 684
68 726
56 726
45 913
38 159
29 416
23 197
19 163
14 406
10 103
18 885
136 088
118 811
123 097
117 978
103 281
84 146
70 321
58 801
46 998
39 468
30 679
23 633
19 555
14 687
10 178
17 766
42 449
51 065
58 276
50 - 54States of America
31 124 (USA) through
32 425 USAID, 33
595
46 683
of the United
the
I would like38to513
recognize the
government of the United State
55 - 59
22 549
23 243
24 109
29 873
34 497
UNFPA for
providing technical
and financial
support during
United States
of America Census
Bureau and UNFPA for providi
60 - 64
18 291
18 245
18 328
20 782
25 946
n report. The
NSA team, particularly
the 15
Demographic
and
the production
of the population
65 - 69
14 572
021
15 298
15 397
17 596 projection report. The NSA t
- 74
9 982
10
031
232
12 072
247 as UNAM, for the uncount
, for the70uncountable
determinations
dedicated
to 10
the
Vital Statistics
division, as12well
75 - 79
6 934
6 970
6 967
7 066
8 416
ndings in this
into practice
production of7 346
this report. I hope
80+ report will be9turned
915
9 285 in order 8to
765
6 934 that the findings in this repor
RELTYETissues
S NHOJare
.RDaddressed prod
are addressed productively.
ensure that our national development
Female
1 150 716
1 172 440
1 194 634
1 309 931
1 427
LAR406
ENEG–NAICITSITATS
0-4
154 778
156 953
159 145
165 486
YCNE166
GA 732
SCITSITATS AIBIMAN
i
1 to 2041
141 151
157 033
163 765
119 284
140 302
156 265
122 491
118 376
139 430
119 344
120 988
117 161
106 322
116 826
118 818
86 875
102 788
113 503
72 053
83 360
99 199
60 720
68 941
80 197
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
48 349
57 918
66 077
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
40 664
45 946
55 276
31 965
38 405
43 578
NAMIBIA STATISTICS
AGENCY
24 274
29 669
35 815
19 897
21 767
26 768
15 001
16 770
18 493
10 297
11 322
12 772
16 802
14 034
13 557
1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
i
12
Namibia 2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
Foreword
Medium Variant
Table 1.3a Namibia Projected Population by Sex and Single Age, 2014
Age FOREWARD
Both Sex
Male
Female
Age
Both Sex
Male
Female
Total
2 237 894
1 087 178
1 150 716
future
for any11objective
0 Information
65 554about 33
190 population
32 364 is an important prerequisite
40
24 057
610
12and
447 realistic
1 development
63 989 plan. Population
32 373
31 616
41
953total 11
033
11age
920 and sex
projections
provide information
on22the
population,
2 structure62of
626the future
31 665
30
961
42
21
772
10
420
11
352
population of a country. Such information is essential for the formulation
of
3
60 882
30 767
30 115
43
20 584
9 811
10 773
development
programmes,
as well as monitoring44and evaluating
implementation
4 national59
956
30 234
29 722
19 484 the9 250
10 234 of all
5 development
57 750plans and
29 110
28
640
45
18
522
8
747
9 775 Foreword
programs at national and regional levels.
6
54 989
27 725
27 264
46
17 755
8 335
9 420
7 The last 52
277
26
364
25
913
47
17
142
7
994
148
population projections were produced by the Central Bureau of Statistics based 9on
1991 and
8FOREWARD
49 967
25 195
24 772
48
16 610
7 698
8 912
were released
respectively.
be appreciated
that
9 2001 census
48 281data and
24 319
23 962 in 1994 and 2004 49
16 055It should
7 397
8 658
Information
future
is basis
an important
prerequisite
objective
population
projections
arepopulation
made23on
the
of assumptions
tofortheany
future
behaviour
the
10
47 about
379
23 819
560
50 relating
15 425
7 058
8 367andof realistic
11
202
23 668 andprojections
23 534
51 components
14 675
6 658
8 017ageThis
development
plan. mortality
Population
provide
information
on
the of
total
population,
and
levels of47
fertility,
migration,
which
make
up the
population
change.
is sex
12
23 765
23 773
52
13 849
6 221
7 628
rd 47 538
structure
future
country.
information
essential
the7 249
formulation
the 3 of
time
that
population
been Such
constructed
national
regional
levels. The of
13
48the
129
23 population
988 projections
24 of
141a have
53 at both
13 is
037
5and
788for
national
development
as from
well 2011
as monitoring
evaluating
the
implementation
of all
projected
is,
(base year)
to 2041.
Additional
projection
tables that
14
48period
775 is thirty
24programmes,
237years, that
24 538
54 and
12 297
5 399
6 898
15
49
165
24
366
24
799
55
11
587
5
039
6
548
development
plans herein
and programs
at national
regional
levels.
are not provided
will be made
availableand
upon
requests
as well as on the NSA website.
16
49 108
24 279
24 829
56
10 931
4 728
6 203
17
48 712
24 033
24 679
57
10 349
4 476
5 873
TheI last
population
projections
were produced
byUnited
the Central
of Statistics
based
on 1991
would
like to recognize
the government
of the
States Bureau
of America
(USA) through
USAID,
the and
18
48 286
23 770
24 516
58
9 799
4 251
5 548
2001
census
data
and23were
released
1994
andfor
2004
should
appreciated
United
States
of America
Bureau
UNFPA
providing
technical
19
47 932
547Census
24
385 inand
59respectively.
9 299 Itand
4financial
055 be support
5 244 during that
20
47
384 of the
23are
244
140
60 team,
8particularly
860 to the
3 882
4 978
population
projections
made 24
on
the basisreport.
of assumptions
relating
future
behaviour
of the
the production
population
projection
The NSA
the
Demographic
and
21
46 623
22 857
23 766
61
8 507
3 742
4 765
levels
of Statistics
fertility, mortality
migration,
which
up the components
of population
change.
This is
Vital
division, and
as well
as UNAM,
formake
the uncountable
determinations
dedicated
to the
22
45 705
22 417
23 288
62
8 232
3 629
4 603
rd
the production
3 time44that
population
have
beeninconstructed
at both
national
and
regional
levels.
of this
report.
hope 22
that
findings
this report
will
be
turned
into
practice
in order
to The
23
786
21 996 Iprojections
790the
63
8 034
3 554
4 480
24
43
822
21
560
22
262
64
7
855
3
484
4
371
projected
thirty years,
that is,issues
from are
2011
(base year)
to 2041. Additional projection tables that
ensure period
that ourisnational
development
addressed
productively.
25
42 577
20 960
21 617
65
7 584
3 361
4 223
are not provided herein will be made available upon requests as well as on the NSA website.
26
41 020
20 172
20 848
66
7 195
3 164
4 031
27
39 284
19 273
20 011
67
6 741
2 921
3 820
I would like37to
the government
of the United 68
States of6America
28
504recognize
18 336
19 168
301
2(USA)
673 through
3 628 USAID, the
29
35 829
17 464
18 365 and UNFPA for providing
69
5 914
2 453
United States
of America
Census Bureau
technical
and
financial3 461
support during
30
34
263
16
662
17
601
70
5
519
2
250
3
269
the production of the population projection report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic and
31
32 895
15 986
16 909
71
5 138
2 082
3 056
Vital Statistics
as well 16
as294
UNAM, for the uncountable
determinations
dedicated
to the
32
31 735division,
15 441
72
4 817
1 963
2 854
33
14 966
15 719
73
1 878
2 686 in order to
production30
of685
this report.
I hope that
the findings in this report
will4 564
be turned
into practice
34
29
666
14
505
15
161
74
4
350
1
809
2 541
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
35
28 673
14 032
14 641
75
4 066
1 695
2 371
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
36
27 694
13 532
14 162
76
3 707
1 533
2 174
AGENCY
37 NAMIBIA26STATISTICS
742
13
026
13 716
77
3 353
1 366
1 987
38
25 865
12 559
13 306
78
3 067
1 226
1 841
39
25 015
12 114
12 901
79
2 844
1 114
1 730
80+
28 800
9 915
18 885
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
13
i
i
droweroF
Medium Variant
Table 1.3b Namibia Projected Population by Sex and Single Age , 2015
DFemale
RAWEROF
Age
Both Sex
Male
Female
Age
Both Sex
Male
Total
2 280 716
1 108 276
1 172 440
0
citsilaer 66
dn240
a evitcejbo33y537
na rof etisi32
uqe703
rerp tnatropmi 40
na si noitalu24
po691
p erutu11
f 915
tuoba n12
oit776
amrofnI
1
64 783
32 773
32 010
41
23 724
11 402
12 322
xes dna 63
eg485
a ,noitalupo32
p 099
latot eht no31n386
oitamrofni edivor42
p snoitcejorp22n635
oitalupo10
P 835
.nalp tn11
em800
poleved
2
3
62
332
31
499
30
833
43
21
471
10
233
11
238
fo noitalumrof eht rof laitnesse si noitamrofni hcuS .yrtnuoc a fo noitalupop erutuf eht fo erutcurts
4
60 663
30 642
30 021
44
20 300
9 635
10 665
lla fo no59
ita804
tnemelpmi 30
eh146
t gnitaulave29dn658
a gnirotinom sa 45
llew sa ,sem19
ma205
rgorp tn9e075
mpoleve10
d 130
lanoitan
5
Foreword
6
57 646
29 049
28.s597
46
18
246
8
573
9
673
level lanoiger dna lanoitan ta smargorp dna snalp tnempoleved
7
54 890
27 667
27 223
47
17 492
8 169
9 323
8
52 183
26 309
25 874
48
16 888
7 835
9 053
dna 199149n878
o desab sci25
tsit142
atS fo uaeru24
B 736
lartneC ehFOREWARD
t yb de49
cudorp erew16
sn364
oitcejorp7 n545
oitalupop
tsal ehT
9
8 819
10 taht deta
48ic200
24
272
23
928
50
15
808
7
244
8
564
erppa eb dluohs tI .ylevitcepser 4002 dna 4991 ni desaeler erew dna atad susnec 1002
11
47 307
23 778
23 529
51
15 181
6 909
8 272
n important
important
prere
ht fo ru47
oiv131
ahefor
b erany
utu23
f eobjective
ht ot gnitaand
l23
er 503
snrealistic
oitpmusInformation
sa fo si52
sab ehabout
t no e14
dafuture
m era spopulation
n6o517
itcejorp n7is
o925
itaan
lupo
p
12 eprerequisite
628
442
13 si sihT .eon
47
23o742
53w ,noitplan.
090
provide information
population,
projections
informatio
gna466
hthe
c nototal
italup23
o
p724
fo stnenopage
m
c and
eht psex
u ekdevelopment
am hcih
argim13Population
d631
na ytilatr6om
,ytilitre7f 541
fo sprovide
level
14
48 056
23 947
24 109
54
12 831
5 665
7 166
untry. Such
for
country.
ehT .slev48
el l680
aisnoessential
iger dna24la185
noitathe
n htformulation
ob 24
ta 495
detcurtsof
nostructure
c neeb 55
evaof
h sthe
noitcfuture
e12
jor082
p npopulation
oitalu5po267
p tahof
t eam
t dr3 eht Such informa
15 information
6 i815
16 tahtand
464
l as monitoring
implementation
selb49
aevaluating
t 047
noitcejorpthe
l24
ano303
itiddA .140224o744
t )raeof
y eall
sanational
b( 110256
mdevelopment
orf ,si taht11,sr362
aeprogrammes,
y ytrih4t 898
si doireas
p 6dwell
etcejoasrpmonitoring an
17
48 989
24 216
24 773
57
10 719
4 595
6 124
and regional
and
.etisbew A23
SN972
eht no sa lle24
w s624
a stseuqerdevelopment
nopu e58
lbaliavaplans
edam
e149
b lprograms
liw nie4re351
h datednational
ivo5rp798
tonand
era regional levels
18 levels. 48 596
10
19
48 170
23 709
24 461
59
9 610
4 132
5 478
ced by the
1991
20 Central
092
eht ,DIBureau
AS47
U 770
hguof
orhStatistics
t )A23
SU454
( acbased
iremA fon
o24se316
tatS dand
etinThe
U ehlast
t f60
o population
tnemnrevog9projections
eht ezing3o931
cewere
r ot eproduced
k5il 161
dluow Iby the Central
21
47 179
23 121
24 058
61
8 638
3 753
4 885
994 and 2004
respectively.
census
1994
op420
pus laIt
icnshould
ani22
f d736
na be
lacinappreciated
hcet23
gn684
idivorpthat
rof2001
APFNU
dna uadata
eruB sand
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m
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tS675
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22 gnirud tr46
62
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sis of assumptions
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23 dna cihrelating
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arg506
ometo
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ht 22
ylfuture
r298
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.troper 63
noitcprojections
ejorp no8ita025
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t assumptions
24
44
591
21
879
22
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64
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hich make25up ethe
and
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ht rof of
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vmigration,
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twhich
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21
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rd
e been constructed
time
26 ot redrat
21levels.
110
o 42
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i 277
ecitnational
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i and
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enruregional
t eb lliw
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roper sThe
iht the
ni sg3nid66
nif ehthat
t tahpopulation
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h I .troprojections
p3er234
siht fo n4ohave
itcudbeen
orp constructed
27
40
731
20
015
20
716
67
6
968
3
044
3
924
2011 (base
year) to 2041.
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projectionutables
ispthirty
d884
orp dethat
sserprojected
dda era68seuperiod
ssi tnem
evedyears,
lano2i811
tathat
n ruois,tafrom
t eru2011
sne (base year) t
28
39 007
19 123 .ylevitc19
6ol529
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le upon requests
as well
as on the 18
NSA
are not69
provided herein
made available
29
37 240
193website. 19 047
6 103will be2 572
3 531 upon requests as
30
35 510
17 286
18 224
70
5 676
2 336
3 340
31
33
893
16
451
17
442
71
5
244
2
118
3 126of the United State
of the United States of America (USA) through USAID, theI would like to recognize the government
32
32 541
15 784
16 757
72
4 882
1 960
2 922
UNFPA for
technical
and
support
States of America
Bureau2 and
33 providing31
392
15financial
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16 147 duringUnited 73
4 579 Census
1 849
730 UNFPA for providi
34
30
353
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n report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic andthe production of the population projection
35
29 327
14 305
15 022
75
4 071
1 675
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, for the36uncountable
determinations
division,
28 326
13 823 dedicated
14 503to theVital Statistics
76
3 746 as well
1 542 as UNAM,
2 204 for the uncount
37
27
360
13
331
14
029
77
3
415
1
395
2 020
ndings in this report will be turned into practice in order toproduction of this report. I hope that the
findings in this repor
38
26 418
12 832
13 586
78
3 089
1 242
1 847
ELTYETissues
S1N711
HOJare
.RDaddressed prod
are addressed
productively.
ensure 79
that our national
39
25 554
12 373
13 181
2 827 development
1R
116
80+
27 051 LAR9E285
NEG–NA17
ICI766
TSITATS
YCNEGA SCITSITATS AIBIMAN
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
i
1 to 2041
1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
i
14
Namibia 2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
Foreword
Medium Variant
Table 1.3c Namibia Projected Population by Sex and Single Age , 2016
Age FOREWARD
Both Sex
Male
Female
Age
Both Sex
Male
Female
Total
2 324 388 1 129 754
1 194 634
0 Information
66 823about 33
831 population
32 992 is an important
40
25 231
12
13 056
future
prerequisite
for175
any objective
and realistic
1
65 496
33 133
32 363
41
24 357
11 706
12 651
Population
projections
provide42
information
on the11total
age and sex
2 development
64 293 plan. 32
506
31
787
23 403
202 population,
12 201
3 structure
63 of
198the future
31 936population
31 262
43 information
22 329 is 10
645
11 684
of a country. Such
essential
for
the formulation of
4
62 115
31 374
30 741
44
21 181
10 053
11 128
programmes,
and015evaluating
of all
5 national60development
515
30 557
29 958 as well as monitoring
45
20
9 456the implementation
10 559
Foreword
6 development
59 699plans 30
084
29
615
46
18
923
8
897
10
026
and programs at national and regional levels.
7
57 546
28 990
28 556
47
17 981
8 406
9 575
8
54 795
27 610
27 185
48
17 237
8 009
228
The last52population
were
the Central
Bureau of
Statistics98 based
9FOREWARD
092
26projections
255
25
837 produced by 49
16 642
7 681
961 on 1991 and
10 2001 census
49 797data 25
24 702 in 1994 and502004 respectively.
16 118
7It393
725appreciated that
and095
were released
should 8be
11
48 130
24 232
23 898
51
15 560
7 093
8 467
Information
about
future
is basis
an important
prerequisite
objective and realistic
projections
arepopulation
made
on the
of assumptions
relating 6tofor
theany
future
12 population
47 237
23 738
23 499
52
14 944
765
8 179behaviour of the
development
plan. mortality
Population
provide
total
population,
ageThis
and
13
062
23 589 andprojections
23
473
53information
218on the
6 381
7 837 change.
levels of47fertility,
migration,
which
make
up the14components
of
population
is sex
14
23
685
23
712
54
13
419
5
963
7
456
rd 47 397
structure
the
future
population
of a have
country.
information
essential
for
the formulation
the 3 of
time
that
population
projections
been Such
constructed
at bothisnational
and
regional
levels. The of
15
47 964
23 896
24 068
55
12 608
5 528
7 080
national
development
programmes,
as from
well 2011
as monitoring
evaluating
of all
16
48 period
566
124 years,24
442is,
56 year)11and
5 121 theprojection
6 implementation
730
projected
is 24
thirty
that
(base
to851
2041.
Additional
tables that
17
48
933
24
242
24
691
57
11
145
4
762
6
383
development
plans herein
and
programs
at national
regional
levels.
are not provided
will be made
availableand
upon
requests
as well as on
the NSA 6website.
18
48 875
24 155
24 720
58
10 515
4 468
047
19
48 481
23 911
24 570
59
9 955
4 230
5 725
TheI last
population
projections
were
byUnited
the Central
Bureau
on 1991
would
like
of the
States
of America
(USA)5 through
the and
20
48
014to recognize
23 619 the government
24 395 produced
60
9 401
4 of
008Statistics
393basedUSAID,
21
47
567
23
332
24
235
61
8
866
3
801
5
065
2001
census
data
and were
released
1994
andfor
2004
respectively.
should
be support
appreciated
United
States
of America
Census
Bureauinand
UNFPA
providing
technicalItand
financial
during that
22
46 979
23 001
23 978
62
8 423
3 629
4 794
population
made23on
the basisreport.
of assumptions
relating
to the the
future
behaviourand
of the
the production
population
projection
particularly
Demographic
23
46projections
224 of the
22 are
619
605
63The NSA8team,
087
3 498
4 589
24
45
313
22
182
23
131
64
7
825
3
392
4
433
levels
of Statistics
fertility, mortality
migration,
which
up the components
of population
change.
This is
Vital
division, and
as well
as UNAM,
formake
the uncountable
determinations
dedicated
to the
25
44 345
21 740
22 605
65
7 611
3 315
4 296
rd
the production
3 time43that
population
have
beeninconstructed
at both
levels.
of this
report.
hope
findings
will
be turned
practice
in order
to The
26
275
21 256 Iprojections
22that
019 the
66this report
7 393
3 national
234 into4and
159regional
27
41
986
20
639
21
347
67
7
115
3
113
4
002
projected
thirty years,
that is,issues
from are
2011
(base year)
to 2041. Additional projection tables that
ensure period
that ourisnational
development
addressed
productively.
28
40 452
19 863
20 589
68
6 750
2 930
3 820
are not provided
will be made
well as2 on
website.
29
38 739 herein
18 977
19 762available upon69requests6as
326
706the NSA
3 620
30
36 919
18 013
18 906
70
5 857
2 449
3 408
31
35 to
136recognize
17 072the government
18 064
71
5 397of America
2 201 (USA)
3 196through USAID, the
I would like
of the United
States
32
33 537
16 248
17 289
72
4 985
1 995
2 990
United States
of America
Census 16
Bureau
support during
33
32 200
15 589
611 and UNFPA73for providing
4 642 technical
1 846 and financial
2 796
34
31
062
15
057
16
005
74
4
352
1
741
2
611
the production of the population projection report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic and
35
30 015
14 578
15 437
75
4 062
1 638
2 424
Vital Statistics
as well14as
determinations
36
28 981division,
14 097
884UNAM, for the
76 uncountable
3 753
1 525
2 228 dedicated to the
37
27
993
13
623
14
370
77
3
454
1
404
2 050practice in order to
production of this report. I hope that the findings in this report will be turned into
38
27 037
13 137
13 900
78
3 148
1 270
1 878
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that26our
development
productively.
39
107national
12 645
13 462 issues are addressed
79
2 847
1 130
1 717
80+
25 567
8 765
16 802
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
15
i
i
droweroF
Medium Variant
Table 1.3d Namibia Projected Population by Sex and Single Age, 2021
DRAWEROF
Age
Both Sex
Male
Female
Age
Both Sex
Male
Female
Total
2 550 226
1 240 295
1 309 931
0
citsilae68r 225
dna evitc34
ejb537
o yna rof33e688
tisiuqererp tnatropm40
i na si n28oi386
talupop 13
er596
utuf tuo14
ba790
noitamrofnI
1
67 520
34 154
33 366
41
27 362
13 111
14 251
xes dn66
a 904
ega ,noita33
lup
op latot e33
ht083
no noitamrofni ediv42
orp snoit26
cej379
orp noit12
alu631
poP .na13
lp 748
tnempoleved
2
821
3
66
332
33
513
32
819
43
25
435
12
146
13
289
fo noitalumrof eht rof laitnesse si noitamrofni hcuS .yrtnuoc a fo noitalupop erutuf eht fo erutcurts
4
65 715
33 185
32 530
44
24 516
11 653
12 863
lla fo 65
no046
itatnemel32
pm836
i eht gnita32
ula210
ve dna gnirotinom 45
sa llew sa23,s657
emmarg11
orp
ole465
ved lanoitan
5
192tnemp12
6
64 314
32 460
31 854 .sForeword
46
22
810
10
736
12
074
level lanoiger dna lanoitan ta smargorp dna snalp tnempoleved
7
63 470
32 024
31 446
47
21 891
10 254
11 637
8
62 551
31 555
30 996
48
20 861
9 722
11 139
dna 19
no desab
citsitatS fo30
ua527
eruB lartneC ehFOREWARD
t yb 49
decudorp19er764
ew snoitc9e161
jorp noit10
alu603
pop tsal ehT
9
6191584
31s057
10 taht d60
045
30
275
29
770
50
18
659
8
603
10
056
etaicerppa eb dluohs tI .ylevitcepser 4002 dna 4991 ni desaeler erew dna atad susnec 1002
11
59 249
29 816
29 433
51
17 620
8 084
9 536
n important
important
prere
ht fo57ru124
oivahefor
b e28
rany
u741
tuf eobjective
ht ot 28
gni383
taand
ler snrealistic
oitpmusInformation
sa fo52sisab ehabout
t16n721
o edafuture
m e7ra624
spopulation
noitcej9or097
p nis
oitaan
lupo
p
12 eprerequisite
13 si sihT54
410
027
provide information
population,
informatio
.eon
gnahthe
c nototal
it27
alu383
po
p fo stn27
eno
page
moc and
eht psex
u ekdevelopment
am h53cihw ,noi16
tplan.
ar015
gim Population
dna y7t255
ilatromprojections
,y8ti760
litref fo sprovide
level
14
51 737
26 048
25 689
54
15 444
6 947
8 497
untry. Such
ehT .s49
lev447
el laisnoessential
ige24
r d894
na lafor
noitathe
n24
htformulation
ob ta detcurtsof
nostructure
c ne55
eb evaof
h sthe
n14oi925
tcfuture
ejorp npopulation
o6it663
alupop ta8hof
t eamicountry.
t dr3 eht Such informa
15 information
553
262
16 tahtand
l as monitoring
the
se47lb751
aevaluating
t noitcejo24rp015
lanoimplementation
itiddA23
.1736
402 ot )raeof
y eall
sanational
b( 1156
02 mdevelopment
orf ,14
si t351
aht ,sraeprogrammes,
y6 y345
triht si do8i006
reas
p dwell
etcejoasrpmonitoring an
17
46 829
23 510
23 319
57
13 735
6 010
7 725
and regional
national
w 341
ASN eht no23
sa277
llew sa stseuqerdevelopment
nop58
u elbaliav13
aplans
e022
damand
eb lprograms
li5w631
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ivorp tonand
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18 levels.
46 618 .etisbe23
19
46 908
23 417
23 491
59
12 245
5 224
7 021
ced by the
Statistics
last
20 Central
23A824
eht ,D47
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AS413
U hguof
orh23
t )589
ASU( acbased
irem
fon
o se1991
tatS dand
etinThe
U eh60
t fo population
tnem11nr459
evogprojections
eht 4e815
zingocewere
r 6ot644
eproduced
kil dluow Iby the Central
21
47 925
23 756
24 169
61
10 715
4 434
6 281
994 and 2004
respectively.
appreciated
census data
oppus laIt
ic23
nshould
a814
nif dna be
lacin24
hc388
et gnidivorpthat
rof2001
APFN
er023
uB sand
usnewere
C4 a103
cirereleased
mA fo
setain
tS 1994
detinUand 2004 resp
22 gnirud48tr202
62U dna ua10
5 920
sis of assumptions
23 dna ci48
24
5no
576
hrelating
p060
argometo
D 23
ethe
h669
t ylfuture
ralucitrabehaviour
p 391
,maet ASof
N ethe
hT population
.trop63
er noitcprojections
ejo9rp402
noitaluare
p3o826
p made
eht fo on
ithe
tcudbasis
orp ehof
t assumptions
24
47
586
23
370
24
216
64
8
852
3
604
5
248
hich make25up ethe
of
change.
and
ht ocomponents
t d028
etacided 23
sn028
opopulation
itanimrete24d 000
elbatnuoThis
cnu is
elevels
ht ro65
f of
,Mfertility,
ANU 8s307
a mortality
llew sa3 398
,n
oisivmigration,
id 4sc909
itsitatwhich
S latiVmake up the c
47
rd
e been constructed
26 ot red46
rat
o 488
nboth
i ecitnational
carp22o701
tni and
denruregional
t 23
eb787
lliw levels.
troper sThe
iht the
ni sg366
nidtime
nif ehthat
t t7a780
hpopulation
t epoh I 3.t207
roprojections
per sih4t f573
o nohave
itcudbeen
orp constructed
27
45
799
22
329
23
470
67
7
344
3
047
4
297
2011 (base
year) to
2041. Additional
projection
ispthirty
.y23
le047
vitcutables
dorp dethat
sserprojected
dda 68
era seuperiod
ssi t7n005
em
oleve2dyears,
lanoitathat
n r4u079
ois,tafrom
ht eru2011
sne (base year) t
28
44 956
21 909
926
le upon requests
as43well
the433
NSA website.
are not
herein will
be made
available upon requests as
29
955 as on 21
22 522
69 provided
6 728
2 819
3 909
30
42 895
20 940
21 955
70
6 465
2 724
3 741
31 States
41 of
723America
20 385
21 338 USAID, theI would
71 like to6 160
3 560
of the United
(USA) through
recognize2 600
the government
of the United State
32
40 339
19 705
20 634
72
5 819
2 451
3 368
UNFPA for
technical18and
duringUnited
America2Census
Bureau
33 providing
38 735
882 financial
19 support
853
73 States of
5 417
257
3 160 and UNFPA for providi
34
36
962
17
954
19
008
74
4
981
2
040
2 941
n report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic andthe production of the population projection
report. The NSA t
35
35 143
16 987
18 156
75
4 505
1 797
2 708
, for the36uncountable
determinations
dedicated
to
the
Vital
Statistics
division,
as
well
as
UNAM,
for the uncount
33 407
16 065
17 342
76
4 033
1 562
2 471
37
31
846
15
258
16
588
77
3
613
1
366
2
247
ndings in this report will be turned into practice in order toproduction of this report. I hope that the findings in this repor
38
30 538
14 608
15 930
78
3 266
1 225
2 041
ETissues
S NHOJare
.RDaddressed prod
are addressed
productively.
ensure
national development
39
29 424
14 080
15 344
79 that our
2 971
1 116 RELT1Y855
80+
21 380
7 346
LARENE14
G–034
NAICITSITATS
YCNEGA SCITSITATS AIBIMAN
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
i
1 to 2041
1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
i
16
Namibia 2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
Foreword
Medium Variant
Table 1.3e Namibia Projected Population by Sex and Single Age, 2026
AgeFOREWARD
Both Sex
Male
Female
Age Both Sex
Male
Female
Total
2 778 948
1 351 542
1 427 406
about future
population33is607
an important prerequisite
objective
and realistic
0 Information
68 055
34 448
40
33 463for any
15 969
17 494
1 development
67 641
34 211 projections
33 430provide information
41
31 the
756 total15population,
061
16 695
plan. Population
on
age and sex
2 structure 67
353
34
044
33
309
42
30
223
14
265
15
958
of the future population of a country. Such information is essential for the formulation of
3
67 155
33 924
33 231
43
28 930
13 618
15 312
programmes,
as33well
the088
implementation
of all
4 national development
66 964
33 809
155 as monitoring
44 and evaluating
27 826
13
14 738
Foreword
5 development
66 763
33
697
33
066
45
26
799
12
605
14
194
plans and programs at national and regional levels.
6
66 524
33 568
32 956
46
25 795
12 127
13 668
7 The last population
66 193
33
391
32
802
47
24
831
11
656
13 175
projections were produced by the Central Bureau of Statistics based
on 1991 and
FOREWARD
8
65 762
33 166
32 596
48
23 912
11 183
12 729
data and 32
were
in345
1994 and 2004 49
respectively.
that
9 2001 census
65 239
894 released32
23 016 It should
10 705 be appreciated
12 311
Information
about
is 047
an important
prerequisite
forthe
any
projections
are
made on the
basis
of assumptions
relating
future
behaviour
the
10 population
64
620 future
32 population
573
32
50
22 184to
10
263 objective
11 921 andof realistic
11 levels of fertility,
63plan.
903 mortality
32 209
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51 components
21
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11change.
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12
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rd
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16
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TheI last
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based
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would
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18
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27 130
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23 690
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46 563
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26
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DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
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STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
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37 NAMIBIA 38
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77
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1 699
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DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
17
i
i
droweroF
Medium Variant
Table 1.4 Namibia Projected Population by Region, 2011-2041
Year
Namibia
Erongo
Hardap
//Karas
Kavango
2011
2 116 077
150 338
79 584
77 518
224 102
2012
2 155 440
156 576
81 065
79 136
226 607
2013
2 196 086
162 918
82 579
80 753
229 234
2014
2 237 894
169 351
84 092
82 409
232 002
2015
2 280 716
175 853
85 629
84 077
234 856
2016
2 324 388
182 402
87 186
85 759
237 779
2017
2 368 747
189 014
88 743
87 460
240 767
2018
2 413 643
195 652
90 325
89 157
243 769
2019
2 458 936
202 319
91 905
90 874
246 811
2020
2 504 498
209 006
93 477
92 588
249 853
2021
2 550 226
215 700
95 049
94 294
252 909
2022
2 596 037
222 380
96 626
96 015
255 978
2023
2 641 857
229 063
98 194
97 721
259 047
2024
2 687 636
235 722
99 754
99 424
262 138
2025
2 733 338
242 379
101 305
101 123
265 249
2026
2 778 948
249 019
102 852
102 821
268 379
2027
2 824 465
255 667
104 398
104 501
271 515
2028
2 869 897
262 317
105 933
106 186
274 663
2029
2 915 254
268 977
107 469
107 879
277 833
2030
2 960 542
275 653
109 012
109 565
280 994
2031
3 005 745
282 328
110 540
111 247
284 162
2032
3 050 838
289 018
112 075
112 930
287 330
2033
3 095 780
295 722
113 606
114 618
290 494
2034
3 140 519
302 455
115 137
116 303
293 649
2035
3 185 005
309 190
116 665
117 991
296 772
2036
3 229 197
315 945
118 193
119 669
299 870
2037
3 273 051
322 704
119 710
121 347
302 915
2038
3 316 498
329 460
121 213
123 017
305 918
2039
3 359 466
336 199
122 707
124 664
308 849
2040
3 401 887
342 926
124 191
126 296
311 718
2041
3 443 709
349 631
125 653
127 925
314 500
DRAWEROF
citsilaer dna evitcejbo yna rof etisiuqererp tnatropmi na si noitalupop erutuf tuoba noitamrofnI
xes dna ega ,noitalupop latot eht no noitamrofni edivorp snoitcejorp noitalupoP .nalp tnempoleved
fo noitalumrof eht rof laitnesse si noitamrofni hcuS .yrtnuoc a fo noitalupop erutuf eht fo erutcurts
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level lanoiger dna lanoitan ta smargorp dna snalp tnempoleved
dna 1991 no desab scitsitatS fo uaeruB lartneC ehFOREWARD
t yb decudorp erew snoitcejorp noitalupop tsal ehT
taht detaicerppa eb dluohs tI .ylevitcepser 4002 dna 4991 ni desaeler erew dna atad susnec 1002
n important eprerequisite
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400 191
415 780
431 607
447 636
463 823
480 136
496 546
513 044
529 572
546 130
562 693
579 247
595 797
612 343
628 865
645 355
661 834
678 307
694 781
711 271
727 788
744 335
760 923
777 544
794 203
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ispthirty
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are not provided herein will be made available upon requests as
Kunene Ohangwena
87 019
246 451
89 091
247 898
91 226
249 532
93 396
251 343
95 610
253 348
97 865
255 510
100 157
257 784
102 485
260 190
104 858
262 668
107 245
265 234
109 672
267 835
112 130
270 452
114 628
273 084
117 161
275 691
119 729
278 281
122 327
280 838
124 958
283 371
127 606
285 879
130 273
288 369
132 962
290 856
135 673
293 333
138 379
295 792
141 097
298 196
143 825
300 539
146 546
302 806
149 247
304 988
151 939
307 092
154 607
309 103
157 252
311 014
159 871
312 806
162 453
314 469
of the United States of America (USA) through USAID, theI would like to recognize the government of the United State
UNFPA for providing technical and financial support duringUnited States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providi
n report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic andthe production of the population projection report. The NSA t
, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to theVital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncount
ndings in this report will be turned into practice in order toproduction of this report. I hope that the findings in this repor
RELTYETissues
S NHOJare
.RDaddressed prod
are addressed productively.
ensure that our national development
LARENEG–NAICITSITATS
YCNEGA SCITSITATS AIBIMAN
Omaheke Omusati
71 478 244 146
72 143 245 023
72 805 246 039
73 438 247 199
74 040 248 490
74 629 249 885
75 191 251 369
75 734 252 931
76 246 254 546
76 736 256 194
77 212 257 874
77 652 259 554
78 085 261 234
78 510 262 890
78 910 264 521
79 322 266 121
79 712 267 697
80 092 269 252
80 476 270 786
80 846 272 310
81 213 273 808
81 562 275 266
81 897 276 662
82 217 277 982
82 531 279 230
82 811 280 413
83 067 281 500
83 294 282 507
83 483 283 406
83 642 284 211
83 765 284 887
i
1 to 2041
i
18
Oshana Oshikoto Otjozondjupa Zambezi
177 005 182 435
144 248
90 756
179 255 184 822
146 262
92 312
181 616 187 289
148 296
93 905
184 082 189 835
150 328
95 526
186 634 192 469
152 343
97 176
189 237 195 165
154 342
98 849
191 898 197 901
156 309 100 547
194 577 200 686
158 237 102 264
197 274 203 522
160 120 103 970
199 970 206 385
161 968 105 706
202 656 209 270
163 776 107 433
205 336 212 160
165 550 109 160
207 990 215 062
167 286 110 891
210 621 217 963
169 004 112 628
213 241 220 853
170 687 114 367
215 806 223 747
172 359 116 110
218 357 226 625
174 017 117 850
220 875 229 483
175 672 119 596
223 354 232 322
177 317 121 334
225 812 235 153
178 950 123 074
228 247 237 974
180 577 124 809
230 673 240 760
182 198 126 548
233 081 243 527
183 810 128 289
235 450 246 247
185 420 130 024
237 809 248 926
187 004 131 747
240 142 251 556
188 573 133 455
242 463 254 139
190 102 135 150
244 758 256 666
191 606 136 805
247 037 259 126
193 065 138 461
249 277 261 514
194 475 140 062
251 506 263 828
195 836 141 637
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
Namibia 2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
Foreword
Medium Variant
b) POPULATION PROJECTIONS FORURBAN AND RURAL: MEDIUM VARIANT
FOREWARD
Table 2.1 Urban Projected Population by Sex, Growth Rate and Components of Growth, 2011-2041
Information about future population isExponential
an important prerequisite for any objectiveNet
and realistic
Year
Total
Male
Female
Sex Ratio
Births
Deaths
Growth
Rate
Migration
development plan. Population projections provide information on the total population, age and sex
2011
900 163
439 993
460 170
–
0.96
28 768
8 423
19 840
structure of the future population of a country. Such information is essential for the formulation of
2012
940 825
459 668
481 157
4.418
0.96
30 125
8 666
19 840
development
programmes,
monitoring
evaluating
of all
2013national982
519
479 844
502 675as well as4.336
0.95and 31
364
8the
871implementation
19 840
Foreword
plans 500
and469
programs
national and
levels. 32 511
2014development
1 025 147
524at678
4.2 regional
47
0.95
9 064
19 840
2015
1 068 625
521 496
547 129
4.154
0.95
33 563
9 260
19 840
2016The last
1 112
868
542
893
569
975produced4.057
0.95 Bureau
34 533 of Statistics
9 461 based
19 840
population
projections
were
by
the
Central
on 1991 and
FOREWARD
20172001 census
1 157 806
564
615
593
191
3.959
0.95
35
409
9
651
19
840
data and were released in 1994 and 2004 respectively. It should be appreciated that
2018
1 203 340
586 616
616 724
3.857
0.95
36 174
9 852
19 840
Information
about
future
is an important
prerequisite
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objective
andof realistic
arepopulation
made
of assumptions
future
behaviour
the
2019population
1 249 projections
372
608 851
640on
521the basis 3.754
0.95 relating
36 840 to the
059
19 840
development
plan.
Population
projections
provide
information
on
the
total
population,
age
and
levels
of
fertility,
mortality
and
migration,
which
make
up
the
components
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population
change.
This
is sex
2020
1 295 820
631 269
664 551
3.65
0.95
37 416
10 254
19 840
rd
2021
342
607
653population
843 projections
688 764
3.547
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914isnational
10 425
19
840formulation
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Such
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essential
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the 3 1of
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been
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andfor
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2022
1
389
669
676
538
713
131
3.445
0.95
38
322
10
603
19
840
national
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well 2011
as monitoring
evaluating
theprojection
implementation
of all
projected
period is thirty
years, that is,
(base year) and
to 2041.
Additional
tables that
2023
1 436 946
699 325
737 621
3.345
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38 658
10 788
19 840
development
and
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3.248
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1 531 917
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39 192
11 150
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TheI last
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were
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based
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would
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of the
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1 579
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3.062
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39
318 through
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627data
259
790were
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836
343 inand
2.976
0.95respectively.
39
697
11should
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19support
840
2001
census
and
released
1994
andfor
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Itand
be
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United
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providing
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1
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172
2.895
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39
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11
701
19
840
population
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made on
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of assumptions
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The NSA team,
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2029
1 722 912
836 879
886 033
2.816
0.94
40 131
11 896
19 840
levels of fertility,
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which
make
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the components
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change.
This is
the uncountable
determinations
dedicated
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2030Vital Statistics
1 770 807 division,
859 869as well
910as
938UNAM, for
2.742
40 350
12 110
19 840
rd
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have
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of
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hope
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935
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2.671
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12 309
19
840in order
2032
1
866
786
905
896
960
890
2.607
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40
963
12
527
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840
projected
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that is,issues
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ensure period
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addressed
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2033
1 914 973
928 976
985 997
2.549
0.94
316
758
19 840
are not provided herein will be made available upon requests as 41
well
as on12the
NSA website.
2034
1 963 315
952 109
1 011 206
2.493
0.94
41 674
12 998
19 840
2035
2 011 793
975 290
1 036 503
2.439
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42 038
13 247
19 840
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2036
2 060 426
998 529
1 061 897
2.389
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42 407
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19 840
United States
Census
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2 109of
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1 021 809
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2
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43
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14
025
840
the production of the population projection report. The NSA team, particularly the19Demographic
and
2039
2
207
067
1
068
485
1
138
582
2.245
0.94
43
501
14
317
19
840
Vital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncountable determinations dedicated
to the
2040
2 256 123 1 091 856
1 164 267
2.198
0.94
43 836
14 603
19 840
production
of
this
report.
I
hope
that
the
findings
in
this
report
will
be
turned
into
practice
in order to
2041
2 305 226 1 115 231
1 189 995
2.153
0.94
44 145
14 900
19
840
DR.
STEYTLER
ensure
that
Note:
“ –”JOHN
Meansour
Not national
Applicable
development issues are addressed productively.
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
19
i
i
droweroF
Medium Variant
Table 2.2 Urban Projected Population by Sex and Five-Year Age Group 2014, 2015, 2016,
2021, 2026
Age
2014
2015
2016
2021
2026
DRAWEROF
na 147
evitcejbo1 y068
na 625
rof etisiu1q112
ere868
rp tnatrop
i n607
a si noit1a579
lupo549
p erutuf tuoba noitamrofnI
Total citsilaer 1 d025
1m
342
0 - 4 xes dna e135
ga 778
,noitalupop145
lat002
ot eht no n152
oita017
mrofni edi174
vorp356
snoitcejor186
p n665
oitalupoP .nalp tnempoleved
5-9
90 226
95 474
103 417
149 897
172 424
fo noitalum
f eht rof lai84
tne045
sse si noita85
mr172
ofni hcuS .y106
rtn474
uoc a fo no152
ital717
upop erutuf eht fo erutcurts
10 - 14
83ro409
15 - 19
117
lla fo noita90
tn294
emelpmi eh91
t g892
nitaulave dn92
a 958
gnirotinom s95
a 956
llew sa ,sem
ma426
rgorp tnempoleved lanoitan
20 - 24
112 641
110 686
109
437
114 775
118 155
Foreword
.137
slev218
el lanoiger 135
dna396
lanoitan ta 140
sma960
rgorp dna snalp tnempoleved
25 - 29
125 044
132 077
30 - 34
101 087
107 814
115 220
151 752
150 925
35 - 39
154
dna 1991 n79o 749
desab scitsit84
atS099
fo uaeruB l88
art757
neC ehFOREWARD
t yb118
dec577
udorp erew
sn089
oitcejorp noitalupop tsal ehT
40 - 44
61 067
64 509
67 931
87 688
116 367
taht detaic45
er627
ppa eb dluo47
hs 770
tI .ylevitcep50
ser197
4002 dna 65
499806
1 ni desael84
er 771
erew dna atad susnec 1002
45 - 49
n important
important
prere
50 - 54
36
724
eprerequisite
ht fo ruoi34
va250
hefor
b erany
utuf eobjective
ht145
ot gnitaand
ler s37
nrealistic
o995
itpmusInformation
sa fo47
sis813
ab ehabout
t no e62
dafuture
m era spopulation
noitcejorp nis
oitaan
lupo
p
55 - 59
23the
814 total population,
25 282
26and
843 sexdevelopment
35 543
44Population
852
provide information
on
age
plan.
projections
provide
informatio
s
i
s
i
h
T
.
e
g
n
a
h
c
n
o
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t
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l
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p
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t
n
e
n
o
p
m
o
c
e
h
t
p
u
e
k
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m
h
c
i
h
w
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n
o
i
t
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r
g
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m
d
n
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y
t
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l
a
t
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m
,
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t
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l
i
t
r
e
f
f
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l
e
v
e
l
60 - 64
15 660
16 572
17 599
23 954
31 914
untry. Such
ehT .slevel l9aisn915
oessential
iger dna lafor
no489
itathe
n htformulation
ob ta d11et057
curtsof
nostructure
c nee14
b 748
evaof
h sthe
noitcfuture
e20
jor410
p npopulation
oitalupop tahof
t eamicountry.
t dr3 eht Such informa
65 information
- 69
10
70 - 74 and evaluating
574
111
l as monitoring
taht selbat n64o415
itcejorpthe
lanoimplementation
i64tid
dA .1402 ot 64)r813
aeof
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sanational
b( 110852982
mdevelopment
orf ,si taht12,6sr900
aeprogrammes,
y ytriht si doireas
p dwell
etcejoasrpmonitoring an
75 - 79
451
566
666
222
and regional
tisbew ASN e5ht629
no sa llew sa5s571
tseuqerdevelopment
nopu5e668
lbaliavaplans
edamand
b lprograms
liw niereh datednational
ivorp tonand
era regional levels
80+ levels.
5.e720
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Male
500hg469
972
ced by the
Central
based
eht ,DIBureau
ASU
uof
orhStatistics
t )ASU521
( ac496
iremA fon
o s542
e1991
tat893
S dand
etinThe
U e653
hlast
t f843
o population
tnemnrev767
ogprojections
eht ezingocewere
r ot eproduced
kil dluow Iby the Central
0-4
68 604
73 331
76 851
88 136
94 348
994 and 2004
census
irud trop45
pu189
s laIt
icnshould
anif dn47a be
lacinappreciated
hcet gni51
div936
orpthat
rof2001
APFN75U
dna uadata
eruB 86
sand
us965
newere
C acirereleased
mA fo setain
tS 1994
detinUand 2004 resp
5 - 9 gnrespectively.
847
613
10
14
40
489
41
044
41
836
52
995
76
510
sis of assumptions
dna cihrelating
pargometo
D ethe
ht ylfuture
ralucitrabehaviour
p ,maet ASof
N ethe
hT population
.troper noitcprojections
ejorp noitaluare
pop made
eht fo on
noithe
tcudbasis
orp ehof
t assumptions
15 - 19
41 602
42 648
43 427
46 113
57 328
hich make20up
This
and
ethe
ht ocomponents
t de52
tac586
ided of
snopopulation
itan51
im138
reted change.
elbat50
nuo181
cnu is
elevels
ht ro53
f of
,413
Mfertility,
ANU sa mortality
l56
lew393sa ,n
oisivmigration,
id scitsitatwhich
S latiVmake up the c
- 24
rd 280
25
29
61
032
64
266
66
473
63
66
600
e been constructed
ot redrat
o nboth
i ecitnational
carp otni and
denruregional
t eb lliw levels.
troper sThe
iht the
ni sg3nidtime
nif ehthat
t tahpopulation
t epoh I .troprojections
per siht fo nohave
itcudbeen
orp constructed
30 - 34
50 183
53 397
56 957
74 015
71 449
2011 (base
to 2041.
Additional42projection
isp
thirty
d44
orp304
dethat
sserprojected
dda e58
ra422
seuperiod
ssi tnem
ol889
evedyears,
lanoitathat
n ruois,tafrom
ht eru2011
sne (base year) t
35 -year)
39
39 953
062.ylevitcutables
74
40
44
30
481
32
142
33
789
43
264
56
653
le upon requests as well as on the NSA website.
are not provided herein will be made available upon requests as
45 - 49
22 976
23 885
24 950
32 300
41 258
50 - 54
17 242
18 265
19 210
23 470
30 396
of the United
America
(USA)
through USAID,
like to recognize
55 - 59States of11
704
12 308
13 023 theI would
17 563
21 522 the government of the United State
60
64
7
548
7
996
8
458
11
000
15 032 Census Bureau and UNFPA for providi
UNFPA for providing technical and financial support duringUnited States of America
65 - 69
4 380
4 606
4 835
6 566
8 760
n report. The
NSA team,2 particularly
the
of the
population projection report. The NSA t
70 - 74
680
2 737Demographic
2 833andthe production
3 665
5 083
- 79
1determinations
790
1 823dedicated1 to
848 theVital 2Statistics
028
2 646 as well as UNAM, for the uncount
, for the75uncountable
division,
80+
2 030
2 001
1 982
2 000
2 140
ndings in this report will be turned into practice in order toproduction of this report. I hope that the findings in this repor
Femaleproductively.
524 678
547 129
569 975
688 764
811 577 development
RELTYETissues
S NHOJare
.RDaddressed prod
are addressed
ensure
that our national
0-4
67 174
71 671
75 166
86 220
92 317
L
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C
I
T
S
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A
TS
5-9
45 037
47 627
51 481
74 284
85 459
YCNEGA SCITSITATS AIBIMAN
10 - 14
42 920
43 001
43 336
53 479
76 207
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80+
i
1 to 2041
48 692
60 055
64 012
50 904
39 796
30 586
22 651
17 008
12 110
8 112
5 535
3 735
2 661
3 690
49 244
59 548
67 811
54 417
42 037
32 367
23 885
17 880
12 974
8 576
5 883
3 837
2 743
3 628
49 531
59 256
70 745
58 263
44 453
34 142
25 247
18 785
13 820
9 141
6 222
3 980
2 818
3 589
49 843
60 098
61 362
61 762
72 116
74 360
77 737
79 476
60 155
79 200
44 424
59 714
33 506
43 513
24 343
32 328
DR. JOHN
17 980STEYTLER23 330
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
12 954
16 882
8 182STATISTICS
11 AGENCY
650
NAMIBIA
5 317
7 028
3 194
4 254
3 668
3 999
1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
i
20
Namibia 2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
Foreword
Medium Variant
Table 2.3 Rural Projected Population by Sex, Growth Rate and Components of Growth, 2011-2041
FOREWARD
Exponential
Net
Year
Total
Male
Female
Sex Ratio
Births
Deaths
Growth Rate
Migration
Information about future population is an important prerequisite for any objective and realistic
2011
1 215 914
586 918
628 996
–
0.93
37 132
18 782
-19 840
Population
projections
provide
on606
the total18population,
2012development
1 214 615plan. 586
766
627
849
-0.107 information
0.93
36
033
-19age
840and sex
the future
population
of a country.
is essential
for the formulation
of
2013structure
1 213of567
586 697
626 870
-0.086Such information
0.94
36 146
17 378
-19 840
2014national
1 212
747
586 709
626 038as well -0.068
0.94 and35evaluating
707
16
-19 840 of all
development
programmes,
as monitoring
the800
implementation
2015development
1 212 091plans 586
780
625
311
-0.054
0.94
35
264
16
277
-19 840 Foreword
and programs at national and regional levels.
2016
1 211 520
586 861
624 659
-0.047
0.94
34 789
15 807
-19 840
2017The last
1 210
941
586
918
624
023
-0.048
0.94
34
300
15
394
population projections were produced by the Central Bureau of Statistics based-19on840
1991 and
FOREWARD
20182001 census
1 210 303data and
586 924
623
379
-0.053
0.94
33
822
15
015
-19
840
were released in 1994 and 2004 respectively. It should be appreciated that
2019
1 209 564
586 857
622 707
-0.061
0.94
33 342
14 665
-19 840
Information
future
is basis
an important
prerequisite
objective
andof realistic
populationabout
projections
arepopulation
made on the
of assumptions
relating tofortheany
future
behaviour
the
2020
1 208 678
586 707
621 971
-0.073
0.94
32 856
14 353
-19 840
development
plan.
Population
projections
provide
information
on
the
total
population,
age
and
levels
of
fertility,
mortality
and
migration,
which
make
up
the
components
of
population
change.
This
is sex
2021
1 207 619
586 452
621 167
-0.088
0.94
32 365
14 065
-19 840
rd
structure
future
country.
information
essential
the
the 3 1of
time
that
population
been
constructed
andfor
regional
levels. The of
2022
206the
368
586population
088 projections
620 of
280a have
-0.104Such
0.94 at
31both
904 isnational
13 792
-19 formulation
840
2023
1development
204period
911 is 585
610years,619
-0.121
0.95 and
478
13 the
539projection
-19 840
national
programmes,
as from
well 2011
as monitoring
evaluating
implementation
of all
projected
thirty
that301
is,
(base year)
to31
2041.
Additional
tables that
2024
1
203
250
585
027
618
223
-0.138
0.95
31
094
13
321
-19
840
development
plans herein
and programs
at national
regional
levels.
are not provided
will be made
availableand
upon
requests
as well as on the NSA website.
2025
1 201 421
584 349
617 072
-0.152
0.95
30 728
13 112
-19 840
2026
1 199
583 570the government
615 829
0.95
12
919 through
-19 840
TheI last
population
projections
were
produced
byUnited
the Central
Bureau
of Statistics
based
on 1991
would
like399
to recognize
of-0.168
the
States30
of354
America
(USA)
USAID,
the and
2027
1
197
206
582
694
614
512
-0.183
0.95
30
010
12
736
-19
840
2001
census
data
and were
released
1994
andfor
2004
respectively.
should
be support
appreciated
United
States
of America
Census
Bureauinand
UNFPA
providing
technicalItand
financial
during that
2028
1 194 833
581 723
613 110
-0.198
0.95
29 731
12 557
-19 840
population
projections
made on
the basisreport.
of assumptions
relating
to the the
future
behaviourand
of the
the production
of theare
population
projection
The NSA team,
particularly
Demographic
2029
1 192 342
580 684
611 658
-0.209
0.95
29 495
12 406
-19 840
levels
of Statistics
fertility,
migration,
which
up
the components
of254
population
change.
This is
Vital
division,
as well
formake
the uncountable
determinations
dedicated
to the
2030
1 189 735 mortality
579 591and
610as
144UNAM,
-0.219
0.95
29 266
12
-19 840
rd
the production
3 time
that
population
have
been
constructed
at943
both
national
regional
levels.
of this
report.
hope
that
findings
this0.95
report 28
will
be turned
practice
in order
to The
2031
1 186
996
578 434Iprojections
608
562the
-0.230in
12 into
106and
-19 840
2032
1
184
052
577
173
606
879
-0.248
0.95
28
552
11
957
-19
840
projected
thirty years,
that is,issues
from are
2011
(base year)
to 2041. Additional projection tables that
ensure period
that ourisnational
development
addressed
productively.
2033
1
180
807
575
776
605
031
-0.274
0.95
112as on the
11 817
-19 840
are not provided herein will be made available upon requests as28well
NSA website.
2034
1 177 204
574 216
602 988
-0.306
0.95
27 638
11 688
-19 840
2035
1
173
212
572
474
600
738
-0.340
0.95
27
127
11
573
-19 840 USAID, the
I would like to recognize the government of the United States of America (USA) through
2036
1 168 771
570 520
598 251
-0.379
0.95
26 578
11 453
-19 840
United States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providing technical and financial
support during
2037
1 163 859
568 349
595 510
-0.421
0.95
25 990
11 338
-19 840
the production
of the565
population
projection -0.469
report. The0.96
NSA team,
particularly
the Demographic
and
2038
1 158 419
927
592 492
25 342
11 240
-19 840
Vital
Statistics
division,
as
well
as
UNAM,
for
the
uncountable
determinations
dedicated
to
the
2039
1 152 399
563 226
589 173
-0.521
0.96
24 665
11 139
-19 840
production
of 764
this report.
I hope585
that
report23will
2040
1 145
560 229
535the findings
-0.577in this0.96
959 be turned
11 062into practice
-19 840 in order to
2041
1 138
483
556 development
921
581 562issues are
-0.637
0.96productively.
23 234
10 965
-19 840
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that
our
national
addressed
Note:STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
“ –” Means Not Applicable
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
21
i
i
droweroF
Medium Variant
Table 2.4 Rural Projected Population by Sex and Five-Year Age Group - 2014,
DRAWEROF
2015, 2016, 2021, 2026
Age
2014
2015
2016
2021
2026
dna747
evitcej1bo212
yn091
a rof e1tis211
iuqe520
rerp tn1at207
ropm
i na s1i 199
noita399
lupop erutuf tuoba noitamrofnI
Totalcitsilae1r 212
619
0 - 4 xes dna 177
172
908
ega229
,noitalupo
p la501
tot eht n169
o no
itamrofni160
edi340
vorp snoit150
cejo503
rp noitalupoP .nalp tnempoleved
5 - 9 fo noital173
038
178
927
181
230
167
068
158
057
umrof eht rof laitnesse si noitamrofni hcuS .yrtnuoc a fo noitalupop erutuf eht fo erutcurts
10 - 14
155 614
154 115
154 451
176 091
162 288
lla fo no152
itatn
emelpmi151
eht590
gnitaulav149
e dn861
a gnirotin141
om 597
sa llew s163
a ,se059
mmargorp tnempoleved lanoitan
15 - 19
909
20 - 24
115 679
120 780
124.sForeword
660
124
411
116
315
level lanoiger dna lanoitan ta smargorp dna snalp tnempoleved
25 - 29
71 170
70 751
71 579
92 830
92 991
30 - 34
58 157
55 875
53 634
48 902
69 541
dna 199154
no240
desab scit52
sita886
tS fo uaeru51
B 376
lartneC ehFOREWARD
t41
yb781
decudorp 37
ere704
w snoitcejorp noitalupop tsal ehT
35 - 39
taht deta47
ice783
rppa eb dlu48
oh312
s tI .ylevit48
cep570
ser 4002 d44
na390
4991 ni d35
esa831
eler erew dna atad susnec 1002
40 - 44
45
49
40
457
40
425
40
601
43
177
39
582
n important eprerequisite
important
prere
ht fo ruoivahefor
b erany
utuf eobjective
ht ot gnitaand
ler snrealistic
oitpmusInformation
sa fo sisab ehabout
t no edafuture
m era spopulation
noitcejorp nis
oitaan
lupo
p
50 - 54
35 033
35 748
36 264
36 646
39 235
provide information
on
the
total
population,
age
and
sex
development
plan.
Population
projections
provide
informatio
s
i
s
i
h
T
.
e
g
n
a
h
c
n
o
i
t
a
l
u
p
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p
f
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s
t
n
e
n
o
p
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c
e
h
t
p
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e
k
a
m
h
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i
h
w
,
n
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i
t
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r
g
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m
d
n
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y
t
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l
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t
r
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m
,
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t
i
l
i
t
r
e
f
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s
l
e
v
e
l
55 - 59
28 151
28 640
29 231
32 735
33 223
60 information
- 64
828
untry. Such
future
ehT .sleve25
l lais
noessential
iger dna25
lafor
n306
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c) POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR REGIONS: MEDIUM VARIANT
FOREWARD
Table
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Exponential
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DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
23
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i
droweroF
Medium Variant
Table 3.2 Erongo Projected Population by Sex and Five-Year Age Group - 2014,
DRAWEROF
2015, 2016, 2021, 2026
Age
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24
Namibia 2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
Foreword
Medium Variant
Table 3.3 Hardap Projected Population by Sex, Growth Rate and Components of Growth, 2011-2041
FOREWARD
Exponential
Net
Year
Total
Male
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Growth Sex Ratio
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Migration
Information about future population is an
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provide
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Foreword
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census data and were released in 1994 and 2004 respectively. It should be appreciated that
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Note: “ - “ Means Not Applicable
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
25
i
i
droweroF
Medium Variant
Table 3.4 Hardap Projected Population by Sex and Five-Year Age Group - 2014,
DRAWEROF
2015, 2016, 2021, 2026
Age
2014
2015
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2026
Total citsilaer84d092
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Foreword
25 - 29
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1 to 2041
1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
i
26
Namibia 2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
Foreword
Medium Variant
Table 3.5 Karas Projected Population by Sex, Growth Rate and Components of Growth, 2011-2041
FOREWARD
Exponential
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of the future population of a country. Such information is essential for the247
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would
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1.502
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2 311
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the production
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hope
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114 that
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I hope that the findings in this report will be turned into practice in order to
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
27
i
i
droweroF
Medium Variant
Table 3.6 //Karas Projected Population by Sex and Five-Year Age Group - 2014, 2015,
DRAWEROF
2016, 2021, 2026
Age
2014
2015
2016
2021
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Totalcitsilaer 82
dn409
a evitcejbo84y077
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7 150
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8 194
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r dna lanoit8an
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1 to 2041
1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
i
28
Namibia 2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
Foreword
Medium Variant
Table 3.7 Kavango Projected Population by Sex, Growth Rate and Components of Growth, 2011-2041
FOREWARD
Exponential
Sex
Net
Year
Total
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Female
Births
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224 102
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at national and regional levels.
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246 811
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FOREWARD
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853
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1.225
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in 1994 and
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Information
future
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development
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TheI last
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would
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to recognize
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of8 182
America
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284
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290 494
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dedicated
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299 870
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the production
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have
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of this
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hope that
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findings
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this report
be turned
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139 404
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(base year)
to 2041. Additional projection tables that
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that ourisnational
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addressed
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308 849
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7 772
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are not provided
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I would
like to
Note:
“ –” Means
Not recognize
Applicable
the government of the United States of America (USA) through USAID, the
United States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providing technical and financial support during
the production of the population projection report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic and
Vital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to the
production of this report. I hope that the findings in this report will be turned into practice in order to
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
29
i
i
droweroF
Medium Variant
Table 3.8 Kavango Projected Population by Sex and Five-Year Age Group - 2014,
DRAWEROF
2015, 2016, 2021, 2026
Age
2014
2015
2016
2021
2026
Total citsilaer232
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Foreword
25 - 29
16 247
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n important eprerequisite
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4 286
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4 709
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provide information
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plan.
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s
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h
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.
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982not provided
2 847 herein will be made available upon requests as
55 - 59States of1 704
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016
of the United
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USAID, the1I 980
would like 2to
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60 - 64
1 600
1 496
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1 459
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UNFPA for
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65 -providing
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70
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75 - 79
736
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determinations
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706 Statistics641division, as well as UNAM, for the uncount
ndings in this report will be turned into practice in order toproduction of this report. I hope that the findings in this repor
Female
123 136
124 780
126 457
135 065
143 845
RELTYETissues
S NHOJare
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are addressed
our
0 - 4 productively.
18 814
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266 that19
194national development
LARENEG–NAICITSITATS
5-9
16 298
16 956
17 469
18 595
18 890
10 - 14
14 685
14 610
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17 191
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YCNEGA SCITSITATS AIBIMAN
i
1 to 2041
14 286
16 789
13 813
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102JOHN STEYTLER
3 103
2STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
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1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
i
30
Namibia 2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
Foreword
Medium Variant
Table 3.9 Khomas Projected Population by Sex, Growth Rate and Components of Growth, 2011-2041
FOREWARD
Exponential
Net
Year
Total
Male
Female
Sex Ratio
Births
Deaths
Growth Rate
Migration
future
prerequisite
2011Information
340 997about169
550 population
171 447 is an important
–
0.99
10 330 for 2any
522 objective
6 228and realistic
2012development
355 250 plan.176
517
178
733
4.095 information
0.99
10on
812
2 584
6 229age and sex
Population
projections
provide
the total
population,
2013
369 894
183 681
186 213
4.039
0.99
11 252
2 634
6 227
population
of a country.
is essential
formulation of
2014structure
384 of
893the future
191 008
193 885
3.975Such information
0.99
11 655
2 672 for the
6 229
programmes,
as well as
monitoring
the implementation
of all
2015national
400development
191
198 475
201 716
3.898
0.98 and12evaluating
021
2 716
6 227
2016development
415 780 plans 206
090
209
690
3.821
0.98
12
352
2
756
6
228
Foreword
and programs at national and regional levels.
2017
431 607
213 810
217 797
3.736
0.98
12 644
2 799
6 226
2018
447 636
221 626
226 010
3.646
0.98
12 879
2 848
6 226
The last
projections
were
by the Central
Bureau
based
2019
463population
823
229
514
234
309produced
3.552
0.98
13 076 of Statistics
2 894
6 224on 1991 and
FOREWARD
20202001 census
480 136 data 237
455
242
681
3.457
0.98
13
231
2
927
225
and were released in 1994 and 2004 respectively. It should be 6appreciated
that
2021
496 546
245 442
251 104
3.361
0.98
13 358
2 968
6 222
Information
about
future
is basis
an 3.269
important
prerequisite
forthe
any
objective
population
projections
arepopulation
made
of assumptions
relating
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the
2022
513 044
253 466
259on
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0.98
13 450 to
3 010
6behaviour
223 andof realistic
2023
529fertility,
572
261 502 andprojections
268 070
3.171
13 508
3 052
6 222
development
plan. mortality
Population
provide
information
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and
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make
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the components
population
change.
is sex
2024
269 550
276 580
3.079
0.97
13 544
3 099
6 223
rd546 130
structure
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the
future
country.
information
essential
the 3 562
time
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been
constructed
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levels. The of
2025
693
277 population
595 projections
285 of
098a have
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13both
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3 144andfor
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220 formulation
2026
579 period
247
638years, 293
2.899
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3 190theprojection
6 220 tables that
national
development
programmes,
as from
well 2011
as
monitoring
evaluating
implementation
of all
projected
is 285
thirty
that609
is,
(base 0.97
year) and
to13
2041.
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2027
595 797
293 672
302 125
2.817
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13 611
3 244
6 218
development
plans herein
and
at 640
national
regional
levels.
are not612
provided
will be made
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upon
requests
as well
as on the
NSA website.
2028
343
301programs
703
310
2.739
0.97
13 617
3 291
6 218
2029
628 865
309 722
319 143
2.662
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13 628
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TheI last
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produced
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the Central
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on 1991
2030
645
355to recognize
317 716 the government
327 639
0.97
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6based
216 USAID,
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13
684
3
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217
2001
census
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and were
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1994
andfor
2004
respectively.
should
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appreciated
United
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Census
Bureauinand
UNFPA
providing
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during that
2032
678 307
333 676
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2.459
0.97
13 750
3 546
6 218
population
made353
on
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of assumptions
to
the the
future
behaviourand
of the
the production
population
projection
The0.97
NSA team,
Demographic
2033
694projections
781 of the
341are
652
129
2.400
13relating
834particularly
3 618
6 217
2034
711
271
349
620
361
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2.346
0.97
13
926
3
693
6
218
levels
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fertility, mortality
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which
up the components
of population
change.
This is
Vital
division, and
as well
as UNAM,
formake
the uncountable
determinations
dedicated
to the
2035 rd 727 788
357 595
370 193
2.296
0.97
14 028
3 782
6 218
the production
3 time
population
have
been
constructed
at145
both
national
levels.
of this
report.
hope378
that
findings
this0.97
report 14
will
be turned
practice
to The
2036
744that
335
365 573 Iprojections
762the
2.248in
3 859intoand
6regional
218 in order
2037
760
923
373
571
387
352
2.204
0.96
14
280
3
955
6
218
projected
thirty years,
that is,issues
from are
2011
(base year)
to 2041. Additional projection tables that
ensure period
that ourisnational
development
addressed
productively.
2038
777 544
381 574
395 970
2.161
0.96
14 417
4 051
6 218
are not provided
available 2.120
upon requests
2039
794 203 herein
389will
591 be made
404 612
0.96 as14well
554 as on4 the
152 NSA website.
6 218
2040
810 898
397 620
413 278
2.080
0.96
14 696
4 254
6 218
2041
827 to
619recognize
405 657
421 962
0.96States
14 832
4 361(USA) 6through
218
I would like
the government
of 2.041
the United
of America
USAID, the
Note: “– “ Means Not Applicable
United States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providing technical and financial support during
the production of the population projection report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic and
Vital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to the
production of this report. I hope that the findings in this report will be turned into practice in order to
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
31
i
i
droweroF
Medium Variant
Table 3.10 Khomas Projected Population by Sex and Five-Year Age Group - 2014,
DRAWEROF
2015, 2016, 2021, 2026
Age
2014
2015
2016
2021
2026
Total citsilae384
r d893
na evitce400
jbo 191
yna rof 415
etisi780
uqererp t496
nat546
ropmi na579
si 247
noitalupop erutuf tuoba noitamrofnI
0-4
49 078
52 527
55 043
62 421
65 509
xes dna31eg573
a ,noitalup33op693
latot eht36no870
noitamro54
fni534
edivorp sn61
oi984
tcejorp noitalupoP .nalp tnempoleved
5-9
10 - 14
482
fo noita27
lum
rof eht ro27
f l683
aitnesse si28no183
itamrofni 36
hcu951
S .yrtnuoc54a574
fo noitalupop erutuf eht fo erutcurts
15 - 19
30 327
30 468
30 393
30 643
39 458
lla fo n44
oit942
atnemelpm42
i e653
ht gnitaula40
ve814
dna gniro39
tin516
om sa llew39s920
a ,semmargorp tnempoleved lanoitan
20 - 24
Foreword
25 - 29
53 298
56 813
59 122
.slevel lan52
oi817
ger dna lan51
oit669
an ta smargorp dna snalp tnempoleved
30 - 34
40 972
43 750
47 069
65 234
59 562
35 - 39
dna 19931
1 687
no desab s33
cits573
itatS fo ua35
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eh706
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40 - 44
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25 764
34 FOREWARD
123
45 924
taht de17
taic358
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dlu157
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vit009
cepser 40024
2 174
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ni 248
desaeler erew dna atad susnec 1002
45 - 49
50
54
12
581
13
178
13
795
17
423
22
407
n important eprerequisite
important
prere
ht fo ruoivahefor
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ht ot gnitaand
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sa fo sisab ehabout
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p
55 - 59
8 746
9 211
9 695
12 422
15 869
provide information
on
the
total
population,
age
and
sex
development
plan.
Population
projections
provide
informatio
s
i
s
i
h
T
.
e
g
n
a
h
c
n
o
i
t
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l
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70 - 74
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y ytriht si doireas
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75 - 79
427
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1
367
1
327
1
301
1
273
1
324
and regional levels.
.etisbew ASN eht no sa llew sa stseuqerdevelopment
nopu elbaliavaplans
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liw niereh datednational
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191 008
198 475
206 090
245 442
285 638
50 - 54
6 522
6 838
7 146
8 771
11 214
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80+
16 383
23 869
26 726
19 956
15 440
11 383
8 417
6 059
4 276
2 801
1 758
1 125
791
864
16 316
22 923
28 699
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16 382
11 941
8 858
6 340
4 537
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1 872
1 135
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16 159
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30 094
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AS615
U( acbased
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o890
se1991
tatS dand
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tinThe
U ehlast
t fo population
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nrevogprojections
eht ezingocewere
r ot eproduced
kil dluow Iby the Central
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4 eht ,DIBureau
613
172
5
9
15
867
16
961
18
597
27
603
31
354
994 and 2004gnrespectively.
census
irud troppus laIt
icnshould
anif dna be
lacinappreciated
hcet gnidivorpthat
rof2001
APFNU
dna uadata
eruB sand
usnewere
C acirereleased
mA fo setain
tS 1994
detinUand 2004 resp
10 - 14
13 380
13 534
13 846
18 485
27 462
sis of assumptions
dna cihrelating
p13ar944
gometo
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h14
t y152
lfuture
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,m234
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T population
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troper noit19
cprojections
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jorp noitaluare
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eht fo on
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orp ehof
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15 - 19
20
24
21
073
19
730
18
688
18
437
19
017
hich make up ethe
and
ht ocomponents
t detacided of
snopopulation
itanimreted change.
elbatnuoThis
cnu is
elevels
ht rof of
,Mfertility,
ANU sa mortality
llew sa ,n
oisivmigration,
id scitsitatwhich
S latiVmake up the c
25 - 29
26 572
28 114
29 028
24 841 rd
24 667
e been constructed
and
levels.
ot redrat
o21nboth
i ecitnational
carp o22
tni433
denruregional
t eb24
lliw
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ih32t the
n
i sg3nidtime
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ehthat
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t epoh I .troprojections
per siht fo nohave
itcudbeen
orp constructed
30 - 34
016
084
334
35
39
16
247
17
191
18
170
24
360
32
391
2011 (base year) to 2041. Additional projection
ispthirty
.ylevitcutables
dorp dethat
sserprojected
dda era seuperiod
ssi tnem
olevedyears,
lanoitathat
n ruois,tafrom
ht eru2011
sne (base year) t
40 - 44
12 039
12 608
13 215
17 343
23 244
le upon requests
as on the9NSA
45 - 49 as well
8 941
299 website.
9 696
12 are
256 not provided
16 183 herein will be made available upon requests as
55 - 59States of
4 470
4 674 through
4 905
6 I337
of the United
America (USA)
USAID, the
would like7 854
to recognize the government of the United State
60 - 64
2 738
2 906
3 078
3 962
5 240
UNFPA for
and
financial support
States
of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providi
65 providing
- 69
1technical
477
1 544
1 618 during
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251
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i
1 to 2041
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085 JOHN STEYTLER
8 015
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1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
i
32
Namibia 2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
Foreword
Medium Variant
Table 3.11 Kunene Projected Population by Sex, Growth Rate and Components of Growth, 2011-2041
FOREWARD
Exponential
Net
Year
Total
Male
Female
Sex Ratio
Births
Deaths
Growth Rate
Migration
2011Information
87 019 about
43 858
43 161
–
1.02prerequisite
3 131
82 and realistic
future population
is an important
for1 165
any objective
2012
89 091
44 966
44 125
2.353
1.02
3 171
1 150
82
provide information
on the total
2013development
91 226 plan.
46 Population
102
45projections
124
2.368
1.02
3 212
1 132 population,
82 age and sex
2014structure
93 396
47
248
46
148
2.351
1.02
3
244
1
119
82formulation of
of the future population of a country. Such information is essential for the
2015
95 610
48 413
47 197
2.343
1.03
3 276
1 107
82
development
as monitoring
evaluating
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2016national
97 865
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3 306
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Foreword
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100 157 plans
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at national and regional levels.
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102 485
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104 858
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The last
projections
Central3 426
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107 population
245
54 478
52were
767 produced
2.251by the1.03
090
82 on 1991 and
FOREWARD
20212001 109
672
55
731
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941
2.238
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3
458
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088
82
census data and were released in 1994 and 2004 respectively. It should be appreciated
that
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112 130
57 000
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2.216
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3 489
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Information
about
future
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an
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114 628
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3 524
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82
2024
161plan. mortality
59
591
570
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82 change.
development
Population
projections
provide
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total
population,
ageThis
and
levels117
of fertility,
and57
migration,
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up the 3components
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population
is sex
2025
119
729
60 915
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rd
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projected
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Note:
“ – “ Means
Notrecognize
Applicable
I would
like to
the government of the United States of America (USA) through USAID, the
United States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providing technical and financial support during
the production of the population projection report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic and
Vital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to the
production of this report. I hope that the findings in this report will be turned into practice in order to
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
33
i
i
droweroF
Medium Variant
Table 3.12 Kunene Projected Population by Sex and Five-Year Age Group - 2014,
DRAWEROF
2015, 2016, 2021, 2026
Age
2014
2015
2016
2021
2026
Total citsilaer93d396
na evitcejb95
o 610
yna rof e97
tisi865
uqererp t109
nat672
ropmi na122
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0-4
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op latot eht14no374
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9 103
9 281
9 502
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13 653
lla fo no7it985
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ht gnitaulav8e264
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20 - 24
Foreword
25 - 29
7 039
7 234
7 402
8 i162
.slevel lano
ger dna lano9it002
an ta smargorp dna snalp tnempoleved
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itatS fo uae5ru
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t yb decudo7rp489
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824
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884
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210
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p
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308 JOHN STEYTLER
1 516
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hich make up ethe
and
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25 - 29
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e been constructed
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orp constructed
30 - 34
099
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35
39
2
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ispthirty
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lanoitathat
n ruois,tafrom
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40 - 44
2 218
2 352
2 470
2 810
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le upon requests
as on the1NSA
45 - 49 as well
1 663
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1 768
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2 675 herein will be made available upon requests as
55 - 59States of
1 072
1 106 through
1 147
1 I403
of the United
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to recognize the government of the United State
60 - 64
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n report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic andthe production of the population projection report. The NSA t
75 - 79
316
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312
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, for the80+
uncountable413determinations
dedicated
386
365 to theVital
296 Statistics
274 division, as well as UNAM, for the uncount
ndings in this report will be turned into practice in order toproduction of this report. I hope that the findings in this repor
Female
46 148
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53 941
60 082
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YCNEGA SCITSITATS AIBIMAN
i
1 to 2041
1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
i
34
Namibia 2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
Foreword
Medium Variant
Table 3.13 Ohangwena Projected Population by Sex, Growth Rate and Components of Growth, 2011-2041
FOREWARD
Exponential
Net
Year
Total
Male
Female
Sex Ratio
Births
Deaths
Growth Rate
Migration
2011Information
246 451
113 107population
133 344is an important
–
0.85
8 004
4 059
-2 615
about future
prerequisite
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2012
247 898
113 916
133 982
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plan. Population
projections
provide
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2013development
249 532
114 805
134 727
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0.85 on8 the
036 total3population,
724
-2 614
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115 population
764
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8is078
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of 343
the future
a country.0.723
Such information
essential
for the-2 formulation
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253 348
116 819
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8 121
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development
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and evaluating
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implementation
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2016national 255
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944
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Foreword
2017development
257 784
119
117
138
667
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8
184
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303
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614
plans and programs at national and regional levels.
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260 190
120 347
139 843
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8 216
3 230
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2019
262 668
121 603
141 065
0.948
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8 234
3 176
-2 614
The last 265
population
projections
were
produced by
the Central
Bureau
of Statistics
based
on 1991 and
FOREWARD
2020
234
122 899
142 335
0.972
0.86
8 245
3 125
-2 614
data and
and 2004 respectively.
that
20212001 census
267 835
124were
207 released
143 628in 1994 0.976
0.86
8 234 It should
3 079 be appreciated
-2 613
2022
270
452
125
517
144
935
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8
209
3
038
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613
Information
future
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made on the
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273 084
126 821
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8 177
3 009
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development
plan.
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total
population,
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and
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which
make
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275 691
128 106
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8 135
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rd 278 281
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129
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8
097
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612
structure
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of a have
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information
essential
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projections
been Such
constructed
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2026
280 838
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8 051
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as 0.898
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(base year)
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2027
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development
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as well as on the NSA website.
2029
288 369
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0.867
0.87
7 957
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2030
290 856
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TheI last
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were
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the Central
based
on 1991
would
like
to recognize
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States
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2031
293 333
136 648
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-2
609 USAID,
2032
295data
792
819
157 973
0.835
0.87
7 853 Itand
2should
790
-2 support
609
2001
census
and137
were
released
inand
1994
andfor
2004
respectively.
be
appreciated
United
States
of America
Census
Bureau
UNFPA
providing
technical
financial
during that
2033
298 196
138 969
159 227
0.809
0.87
7 784
2 780
-2 609
population
projections
are
made on
the
of
assumptions
relating
to the
future
behaviourand
of the
the production
population
projection
The NSA
particularly
Demographic
2034
300
539 of the
140
084
160
455 basisreport.
0.783
0.87team,
7 709
2 765the
-2 609
2035
302
806
141
159
161
647
0.751
0.87
7
627
2
763
-2
608
levels
of Statistics
fertility, mortality
migration,
which
up the components
of population
change.
This is
Vital
division, and
as well
as UNAM,
formake
the uncountable
determinations
dedicated
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2036 rd
304 988
142 199
162 789
0.718
0.87
7 539
2 758
-2 608
the production
3 time307
that
population
have
been
at 7both
national
regional
levels.
of
this
report.
Iprojections
hope 163
that892
the
findings
inconstructed
this report
be
intoand
practice
to The
2037
092
143 200
0.687
0.87 will
444turned
2 754
-2
608 in order
2038
309
103
144
146
164
957
0.653
0.87
7
340
2
745
-2
608
projected
thirty years,
that is,issues
from are
2011
(base year)
to 2041. Additional projection tables that
ensure period
that ourisnational
development
addressed
productively.
2039
311 014
145 052
165 962
0.616
0.87
7 223
2 751
-2 608
are not provided
will
be made
upon
as on the
NSA website.
2040
312 806herein145
892
166available
914
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0.87as well
7 101
2 751
-2 608
2041
314 469
146 676
167 793
0.530
0.87
6 975
2 749
-2 608
I would
like to
Note:
“ –” Means
Not recognize
Applicable
the government of the United States of America (USA) through USAID, the
United States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providing technical and financial support during
the production of the population projection report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic and
Vital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to the
production of this report. I hope that the findings in this report will be turned into practice in order to
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
35
i
i
droweroF
Medium Variant
Table 3.14 Ohangwena Projected Population by Sex and Five-Year Age Group DRAWEROF
2014, 2015, 2016, 2021, 2026
Age
2014
2015
2016
2021
2026
Total citsilaer251
dn343
a evitcejb253
o y348
na rof et255
isiu510
qererp tn267
atro835
pmi na 280
si n838
oitalupop erutuf tuoba noitamrofnI
0-4
39 036
38 639
38 494
39 601
39 515
xes dna 35
ega787
,noitalupo
p latot eht n38o 212
noitamrofn37
i e886
divorp sno39itc077
ejorp noitalupoP .nalp tnempoleved
5-9
37 182
10 - 14
fo noitalu34m788
rof eht rof34la080
itnesse si n33oi730
tamrofni h38
cuS310
.yrtnuoc 38
a f009
o noitalupop erutuf eht fo erutcurts
15 - 19
36 210
36 182
35 977
32 932
37 500
lla fo no25
itat976
nemelpmi27
eh920
t gnitaulav29
e 502
dna gnirot31
ino347
m sa llew 28
sa353
,semmargorp tnempoleved lanoitan
20 - 24
Foreword
25 - 29
13 440
13 712
14 356
666
.slevel lano22
ige
r dna lano24
ita543
n ta smargorp dna snalp tnempoleved
30 - 34
10 311
9 881
9 503
9 841
17 748
35 - 39
380
8 041
dna 1991 9n800
o desab scit9si615
tatS fo uaer9uB
lartneC eh7FOREWARD
t 656
yb decudorp
erew snoitcejorp noitalupop tsal ehT
40 - 44
8 519
8 725
8 881
8 505
7 033
taht detai6ce993
rppa eb dlu
hs tI .ylevit7c214
epser 4002 8d168
na 4991 ni 7d891
esaeler erew dna atad susnec 1002
45 - 49
7 o082
50
54
5
771
6
021
6
221
6
737
7
651
n important eprerequisite
important
prere
ht fo ruoivahefor
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ht ot gnitaand
ler snrealistic
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sa fo sisab ehabout
t no edafuture
m era spopulation
noitcejorp nis
oitaan
lupo
p
55 - 59
4 368
4 498
4 668
5 817
6 310
provide information
on
the
total
population,
age
and
sex
development
plan.
Population
projections
provide
informatio
s
i
s
i
h
T
.
e
g
n
a
h
c
n
o
i
t
a
l
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p
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t
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e
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o
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e
h
t
p
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e
k
a
m
h
c
i
h
w
,
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o
i
t
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r
g
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m
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n
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y
t
i
l
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t
r
o
m
,
y
t
i
l
i
t
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e
f
f
o
s
l
e
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e
l
60 - 64
4 160
4 077
4 033
4 418
5 476
65 information
- 69
untry. Such
for
ehT .sleve4l l274
aisnoessential
iger dna4la237
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a detcurtsof
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c847
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ejorp npopulation
oitalupop tahof
t eamicountry.
t dr3 eht Such informa
70 - 74
3 555
3 610
3 656
3 608
3 370
l as monitoring
tahtand
selbaevaluating
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la2n512
oimplementation
itiddA .14022518
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y eall
sa2national
b704
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orf 2,s681
i taht ,sraeprogrammes,
y ytriht si doireas
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75 - 79
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5
821
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985
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and regional levels.
.etisbew ASN eht no sa llew sa stseuqerdevelopment
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edamand
eb lprograms
liw niereh datednational
ivorp tonand
era regional levels
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115 764
116 819
117 944
124 207
130 630
50 - 54
1 886
1 956
2 011
2 267
2 654
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80+
18 249
13 338
7 634
6 186
5 793
5 191
4 517
3 885
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2 632
2 571
2 276
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18 254
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2 658
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1 602
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ced by the
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hguof
orhStatistics
t )A19
SU505
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iremA 19
fon
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se1991
tatS dand
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nThe
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ehlast
t fo population
tne19m984
nrevogprojections
eht ezingocewere
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kil dluow Iby the Central
0 -Central
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5
9
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984
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19
160
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132
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729
994 and 2004gnrespectively.
census
irud troppus laIt
icnshould
anif dna be
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hcet gnidivorpthat
rof2001
APFNU
dna uadata
eruB sand
usnewere
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mA fo setain
tS 1994
detinUand 2004 resp
10 - 14
17 319
17 041
16 924
19 233
19 208
sis of assumptions
projections
dna cihrelating
pa17rg961
ometo
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ht 17
ylfuture
r928
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roper noitc18
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rp noitaluare
pop made
eht fo on
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orp ehof
t assumptions
15 - 19
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834
20
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12
638
13
688
14
541
15
461
14
243
hich make up ethe
and
ht ocomponents
t detacided of
snopopulation
itanimreted change.
elbatnuoThis
cnu is
elevels
ht rof of
,Mfertility,
ANU sa mortality
llew sa ,n
oisivmigration,
id scitsitatwhich
S latiVmake up the c
25 - 29
5 806
5 975
6 333
10 792 rd
11 721
e been constructed
levels.
ot redrat
o nboth
ecitnational
carp otn3i and
d838
enruregional
t eb lli3w601
troper sThe
iht 3the
n825
i sg3nidtime
nif ehthat
tahpopulation
t epoh I .troprojections
per siht fo nohave
itcudbeen
orp constructed
30 - 34
4i 125
7t 994
35
39
4
007
3
904
3
754
2
605
2
842
2011 (base year) to 2041. Additional projection
ispthirty
.ylevitcutables
dorp dethat
sserprojected
dda era seuperiod
ssi tnem
olevedyears,
lanoitathat
n ruois,tafrom
ht eru2011
sne (base year) t
40 - 44
3 328
3 417
3 492
3 291
2 324
le upon requests
as on the NSA
45 - 49 as well
2 476
2 536website.2 610
3are
032not provided
2 890 herein will be made available upon requests as
55 - 59States of1 363
1 403 through1 457
of the United
America (USA)
USAID, the1I 761
would like 1to993recognize the government of the United State
60 - 64
1 528
1 419
1 340
1 386
1 647
UNFPA for
technical
and1financial
support
of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providi
65 providing
- 69
1 703
723
1 711 during1United
329 States1 376
70
74
1
279
1
291
1
313
1
426
1
134
n report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic andthe production of the population projection report. The NSA t
75 - 79
918
910
906
926
1 009
, for the80+
uncountable
determinations
1 769
1 613 dedicated
1 481 to the1Vital
095 Statistics969division, as well as UNAM, for the uncount
ndings in this report will be turned into practice in order toproduction of this report. I hope that the findings in this repor
Female
135 579
136 529
137 566
143 628
150 208
RELTYETissues
S NHOJare
.RDaddressed prod
are addressed
our
national development
0 - 4 productively.
19 362
19 134
19 018
19ensure
569 that19
531
LARENEG–NAICITSITATS
5-9
17 803
18 510
19 052
18 754
19 348
10 - 14
17 469
17 039
16 806
19 077
18 801
YCNEGA SCITSITATS AIBIMAN
i
1 to 2041
16 318
18 587
15 886
14 110
11 874
12 822
6 016
9 754
5 051
5 199
5 214
4 709
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5 001
4 470
4 997
4DR.
056JOHN STEYTLER
4 317
3STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
032
3 829
2 518
2 841
STATISTICS
AGENCY
2NAMIBIA
182
2 236
1 778
1 672
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1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
i
36
Namibia 2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
Foreword
Medium Variant
Table 3.15 Omaheke Projected Population by Sex, Growth Rate and Components of Growth, 2011-2041
FOREWARD
Exponential
Net
Year
Total
Male
Female
Sex Ratio
Births
Deaths
Growth Rate
Migration
2011Information
71 478 about37 future
469
34 009
–
1.10prerequisite
2 270
- 752 and realistic
population
is an important
for 850
any objective
2012
72 143
37 876
34 267
0.926
1.11
2 244
833
- 752
provide information
on the total
2013development
72 805 plan.38Population
282
34 projections
523
0.913
1.11
2 208
814population,
- 752 age and sex
2014structure
73 438
38 664 population
34 774 of a country.
0.866 Such1.11
2 180 is essential
799 for the
- 752
of the future
information
formulation of
2015
74 040
39 027
35 013
0.816
1.11
2 147
786
- 752
as monitoring
evaluating774
the implementation
of all
2016national
74 development
629
39 382programmes,
35 247 as well0.792
1.12 and
2 110
- 752
Foreword
2017development
75 191 plans39and
719programs
35 472
0.750
1.12
2
076
760
752
at national and regional levels.
2018
75 734
40 043
35 691
0.720
1.12
2 040
753
- 752
2019
76 246
40 350
35 896
0.674
1.12
2 009
745
- 752
The last
population
projections
were produced
by the1.13
Central 1Bureau
of Statistics
based
on 1991 and
FOREWARD
2020
76 736
40 638
36 098
0.641
974
739
- 752
released
in 1994
It should
be -appreciated
that
20212001 census
77 212 data40and
919were 36
293
0.618and 2004
1.13 respectively.
1 951
730
752
2022
77
652
41
181
36
471
0.568
1.13
1
925
724
752
Information
future
is basis
an important
prerequisite
objective
andof realistic
populationabout
projections
arepopulation
made on the
of assumptions
relating tofortheany
future
behaviour
the
2023
78 085
41 436
36 649
0.556
1.13
1 902
715
- 752
development
plan.
Population
projections
provide
information
on
the
total
population,
age
and
levels
of
fertility,
mortality
and
migration,
which
make
up
the
components
of
population
change.
This
is sex
2024
78 510
41 691
36 819
0.543
1.13
1 886
715
- 752
rd 78 910
2025
41
927
36
983
0.508
1.13
1
872
718
752
structure
the
future
population
of a have
country.
information
essential
the formulation
the 3 of
time
that
population
projections
been Such
constructed
at bothisnational
andfor
regional
levels. The of
2026
79 322
42 168
37 154
0.521
1.13
1 855
709
- 752
national
development
programmes,
as from
well0.490
as monitoring
evaluating
implementation
of all
projected
period is42thirty
years,
2011
(base1.14
year) and
to
2041.
Additional
2027
79 712
402
37 that
310 is,
1 846
711 theprojection
- 752 tables that
2028
80
092
42
621
37
471
0.476
1.14
1
837
712
752
development
plans herein
and programs
at national
regional
levels.
are not provided
will be made
availableand
upon
requests
as well as on the NSA website.
2029
80 476
42 843
37 633
0.478
1.14
1 831
710
- 752
2030
80 846
43 060
37 786
0.459
1.14
1 823
708
- 752
TheI last
population
projections
were
byUnited
the1.14
Central
Bureau
of708
Statistics
on 1991
would
government
of
the
States
of America
(USA) through
the and
2031
81like
213 to recognize
43
273 the37
940 produced
0.453
1 810
- based
752 USAID,
2032
81
562
43 477
38 085
0.429
1.14
1 800
- 752
2001
census
data
and
were
released
1994
andfor
2004
respectively.
should
be
appreciated
United
States
of America
Census
Bureauinand
UNFPA
providing
technicalIt706
and
financial
support
during that
2033
81 897
43 669
38 228
0.410
1.14
1 785
705
- 752
population
are
made
on
the basis
of assumptions
relating
to704the the
future
of the
the production
the
population
projection
report.
The
particularly
Demographic
2034
82projections
217 of43
851
38 366
0.390
1.14NSA team,
1 768
- 752behaviourand
2035
82
531
44
034
38
497
0.381
1.14
1
753
699
752
levels
of Statistics
fertility, mortality
migration,
which
up the components
of population
change.
This is
Vital
division, and
as well
as UNAM,
formake
the uncountable
determinations
dedicated
to the
2036 rd
82 811
44 199
38 612
0.339
1.14
1 725
702
- 752
the production
3 time
that
population
have
beeninconstructed
at both
national
levels.
of this
report.
hope
that the
findings
this
report1 698
will
be turned
practice
to The
2037
83 067
44
351 Iprojections
38 716
0.309
1.15
704 intoand
- regional
752 in order
2038
83
294
44
490
38
804
0.273
1.15
1
667
705
752
projected
thirty years,
that is,issues
from are
2011
(base year)
to 2041. Additional projection tables that
ensure period
that ourisnational
development
addressed
productively.
2039
83 483
44 606
38 877
0.227
1.15
1 634
709
- 752
are not provided
will be 38
made
upon requests
as
well as on709
the NSA website.
2040
83 642 herein
44 701
941 available
0.190
1.15
1 598
- 752
2041
83 765
44 781
38 984
0.147
1.15
1 564
710
- 752
I would
like to
Note:
“ – “ Means
Notrecognize
Applicable
the government of the United States of America (USA) through USAID, the
United States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providing technical and financial support during
the production of the population projection report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic and
Vital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to the
production of this report. I hope that the findings in this report will be turned into practice in order to
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
37
i
i
droweroF
Medium Variant
Table 3.16 Omaheke Projected Population by Sex and Five-Year Age Group DRAWEROF
2014, 2015, 2016, 2021, 2026
Age
2014
2015
2016
2021
2026
Total citsilae73
r d438
na evitcej74
bo040
yna rof e74
tis629
iuqererp t77
nat212
ropmi na 79
si 322
noitalupop erutuf tuoba noitamrofnI
0-4
10 698
10 495
10 469
9 735
9 170
xes dna10e205
ga ,noitalu10
po631
p latot eht10n740
o noitamro10
fn317
i edivorp sn9o622
itcejorp noitalupoP .nalp tnempoleved
5-9
10 - 14
fo noita7lu983
mrof eht ro8f 052
laitnesse si 8n265
oitamrofni10
hc121
uS .yrtnuoc9a727
fo noitalupop erutuf eht fo erutcurts
15 - 19
6 945
6 968
6 949
7 120
8 959
lla fo no6it137
atnemelpm6i 014
eht gnitaula5ve928dna gniro5tin952
om sa llew6 s131
a ,semmargorp tnempoleved lanoitan
20 - 24
Foreword
25 - 29
5 675
5 691
5 669.slevel lan5o188
iger dna lano5i237
tan ta smargorp dna snalp tnempoleved
30 - 34
5 091
5 081
5 075
5 183
4 769
35 - 39
dna 19941492
no desab sc4it616
sitatS fo ua4er716
uB lartneC e4h778
t yb decudo4r902
p erew snoitcejorp noitalupop tsal ehT
FOREWARD
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3 625
3 686
3 775
4 376
4 449
taht det3a071
icerppa eb 3dl132
uohs tI .yle3vi191
tcepser 40032478
dna 4991 n4i053
desaeler erew dna atad susnec 1002
45 - 49
50
54
2
627
2
666
2
710
3
016
3
298
n important eprerequisite
important
prere
ht fo ruoivahefor
b erany
utuf eobjective
ht ot gnitaand
ler snrealistic
oitpmusInformation
sa fo sisab ehabout
t no edafuture
m era spopulation
noitcejorp nis
oitaan
lupo
p
55 - 59
2 106
2 202
2 291
2 532
2 823
provide information
on
the
total
population,
age
and
sex
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DR. JOHN STEYTLER
1 016
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STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
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Female
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YCNEGA SCITSITATS AIBIMAN
i
1 to 2041
1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
i
38
Namibia 2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
Foreword
Medium Variant
Table 3.17 Omusati Projected Population by Sex, Growth Rate and Components of Growth, 2011-2041
FOREWARD
Exponential
Net
Year
Total
Male
Female
Sex Ratio
Births
Deaths
Growth Rate
Migration
2011Information
244 146about
110future
459 population
133 687 is an important
–
0.83
6 755 for 3any
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-2 082 and realistic
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245 023
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projections
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194
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248 490
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249development
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FOREWARD
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256 194
115 606
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6 757
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257 874 data116
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6 735
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261 234
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the production
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of this
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hope
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projected
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to 2041. Additional projection tables that
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addressed
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283 406
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Note:
“ –” Means
Not recognize
Applicable
the government of the United States of America (USA) through USAID, the
United States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providing technical and financial support during
the production of the population projection report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic and
Vital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to the
production of this report. I hope that the findings in this report will be turned into practice in order to
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
39
i
i
droweroF
Medium Variant
Table 3.18 Omusati Projected Population by Sex and Five-Year Age Group - 2014,
DRAWEROF
2015, 2016, 2021, 2026
Age
2014
2015
2016
2021
2026
Total citsilaer247
dn199
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bo 490
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Foreword
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40 - 44
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45 - 49 as well
2 771
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384 not provided
3 035 herein will be made available upon requests as
55 - 59States of
1 695
1 696 through
1 717
212recognize the government of the United State
of the United
America (USA)
USAID, the1I987
would like2 to
60 - 64
1 986
1 858
1 750
1 641
1 879
UNFPA for
and
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States
of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providi
65 -providing
69
2technical
138
2 175
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737
1 653
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n report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic andthe production of the population projection report. The NSA t
75 - 79
1 085
1 092
1 101
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uncountable
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2 030
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396 Statistics
1 315division, as well as UNAM, for the uncount
ndings in this report will be turned into practice in order toproduction of this report. I hope that the findings in this repor
Female
135 531
136 278
137 073
141 512
146 056
RELTYETissues
S NHOJare
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are addressed
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16 446
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15 959
16ensure
168
024national development
LARENEG–NAICITSITATS
5-9
16 369
16 815
16 981
15 786
16 037
10 - 14
16 059
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15 835
17 270
16 084
YCNEGA SCITSITATS AIBIMAN
i
1 to 2041
15 767
17 198
14 606
13 851
11 706
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5 442
9 489
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4 747
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4 871
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5 431
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5DR.
217 JOHN STEYTLER
5 468
4STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
316
5 134
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STATISTICS
AGENCY
3NAMIBIA
069
3 421
2 345
2 503
3 461
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1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
i
40
Namibia 2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
Foreword
Medium Variant
Table 3.19 Oshana Projected Population by Sex, Growth Rate and Components of Growth, 2011-2041
FOREWARD
Exponential
Net
Year
Total
Male
Female
Sex Ratio
Births
Deaths
Growth Rate
Migration
about future
prerequisite
for any2 objective
2011Information
177 005
80 552 population
96 453is an important
–
0.84
5 047
475
-and
371 realistic
2012development
179 255plan. Population
81 557
97
698
1.263
0.83
5
119
2
430
371 and sex
projections provide information on the total population, age
2013
181 616
82 602
99 014
1.309
0.83
5 180
2 383
- 371
the future
population
Such information
essential2 348
for the formulation
of
2014structure
184of082
83 704
100of
378a country.
1.349
0.83
5is229
- 371
2015national186
634
84
833
101
801
1.377
0.83
5
268
2
320
371
development programmes, as well as monitoring and evaluating the implementation of all
2016
189 237
85 995
103 242
1.385
0.83
5 291
2 305
- 371
Foreword
programs104
at national
and1.396
regional levels.
2017development
191 898plans and
87 183
715
0.83
5 311
2 285
- 371
2018
194 577
88 370
106 207
1.386
0.83
5 311
2 271
- 371
2019The last197
274
89 568
107 706
1.377
0.83 Bureau
5 301
2 258 based -on
3711991 and
population
projections
were
produced
by
the
Central
of
Statistics
FOREWARD
2020
199 970
90 767
109 203
1.357
0.83
5 286
2 240
- 371
were released
and 2004 0.83
respectively.
that
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202 656data and
91 953
110 703in 1994 1.334
5 259 It should
2 228be appreciated
- 371
2022
205
336
93
138
112
198
1.314
0.83
5
226
2
211
372
Information
future
is basis
an important
prerequisite
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andof realistic
populationabout
projections
arepopulation
made on the
of assumptions
relating tofortheany
future
behaviour
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2023
207 990
94 308
113 682
1.284
0.83
5 190
2 195
- 372
development
plan.
Population
projections
provide
information
on
the
total
population,
age
and
levels
of
fertility,
mortality
and
migration,
which
make
up
the
components
of
population
change.
This
is sex
2024
210 621
95 470
115 151
1.257
0.83
5 157
2 192
- 372
rd
2025the 3 of
213the
241
96population
631 projections
116of610
1.236
0.83 at both
5 114
2and
189for
structure
future
a have
country.
Such
information
isnational
essential
the- 371
formulation
time
that
population
been
constructed
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levels. The of
2026
215 806
97 757
118 049
1.196
0.83
5 079
2 168
- 371
national
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as from
well 2011
as 1.175
monitoring
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(base year)
to 2041.
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tables that
2027projected
218period
357 is thirty
98
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119 is,
473
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5 035
2the
154
- 371
2028are not 220
875 herein
991
120national
884
1.147
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2 154website.- 371
development
plans
and99programs
at
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provided
will be made
availableand
upon
requests
as well4as
on the NSA
2029
223 354
101 080
122 274
1.116
0.83
4 959
2 142
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2030
225
812
102
161
123
651
1.094
0.83
4
935
2
138
- 371on 1991 and
TheI last
population
projections
were produced
byUnited
the Central
Bureau
of Statistics
based
would
like to recognize
the government
of the
States
of 4America
(USA)
through
USAID, the
2031
228 247
103 228
125 019
1.073
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917
2 134
- 371
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and
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respectively.
should
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States
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UNFPA
providing
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2032United
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673of America
104were
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2financial
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723
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871
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- 371
population
projections
made on
the basisreport.
of assumptions
relating
to the the
future
behaviour
of the
the production
of theare
population
projection
The NSA team,
particularly
Demographic
and
2034
235 450
106 408
129 042
1.011
0.82
4 854
2 129
- 371
levels
of Statistics
fertility,
and
migration,
which
make
up the
of2 population
change.
This is
division,
as well
as 362
UNAM,
for0.997
the uncountable
to the
2035Vital
237 809 mortality
107 447
130
0.82 components
4 determinations
836
136 dedicated
- 371
rd
2036
240
142
108
479
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663
0.976
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4
818
2
135
371
the production
3 time that
population
have
beeninconstructed
at both
national
regional
levels.
of this
report. Iprojections
hope that the
findings
this report will
be turned
intoand
practice
in order
to The
2037
242 463
109 511
132 952
0.962
0.82
4 804
2 144
- 371
projected
thirty
years,
that
from are
2011
(base year)
to 2041.
that
ourisnational
development
issues
addressed
productively.
2038ensure period
244 758
110 531
134is,
227
0.942
0.82
4 791 Additional
2 148 projection
- 371 tables that
2039
247
037
111
546
135
491
0.927
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4
775
2
156
- 371
are not provided herein will be made available upon requests as well as on the NSA website.
2040
249 277
112 547
136 730
0.903
0.82
4 756
2 167
- 371
2041
251 506
113 540
137 966
0.890
0.82
4 740
2 180
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I would
like to
Note:
“ – “ Means
Notrecognize
Applicable
the government of the United States of America (USA) through USAID, the
United States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providing technical and financial support during
the production of the population projection report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic and
Vital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to the
production of this report. I hope that the findings in this report will be turned into practice in order to
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
41
i
i
droweroF
Medium Variant
Table 3.20 Oshana Projected Population by Sex and Five-Year Age Group - 2014,
DRAWEROF
2015, 2016, 2021, 2026
Age
2014
2015
2016
2021
2026
Total citsilae184
r dn082
a evitcej186
bo 634
yna rof e189
tisiu237
qererp t202
natr656
opmi na 215
si n806
oitalupop erutuf tuoba noitamrofnI
0-4
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24 639
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op637
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15 - 19
20 998
20 323
19 700
18 336
21 729
lla fo no21
ita713
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ht gnitaula22
ve038
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20 - 24
519
Foreword
25 - 29
17 573
18 286
18 945
.slevel lan20
oig917
er dna lano18ita527
n ta smargorp dna snalp tnempoleved
30 - 34
12 813
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dna 19910
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B lartneC e12hFOREWARD
t055
yb decudo15
rp248
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taht deta6ic776
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epser 40028 d562
na 4991 ni8 d
esaeler erew dna atad susnec 1002
45 - 49
774
50
54
5
456
5
748
5
961
6
280
7
803
n important eprerequisite
important
prere
ht fo ruoivahefor
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ht ot gnitaand
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sa fo sisab ehabout
t no edafuture
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noitcejorp nis
oitaan
lupo
p
55 - 59
3 958
4 028
4 161
5 444
5 752
provide information
on
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total
population,
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development
plan.
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projections
provide
informatio
s
i
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i
h
T
.
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untry. Such
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iger dna2 l698
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70 - 74
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l as monitoring
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and regional levels.
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nopu elbaliavaplans
edamand
eb lprograms
liw niereh datednational
ivorp tonand
era regional levels
Male
83 704
84 833
85 995
91 953
97 757
50 - 54
1 971
2 059
2 134
2 394
2 997
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80+
10 958
11 618
9 660
7 241
6 065
5 044
4 103
3 485
2 541
2 136
1 640
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934
2 182
10 582
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7 479
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4 089
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ced by the
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t fo population
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324
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9
9
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250
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786
12
214
12
558
994 and 2004gnrespectively.
census
irud troppus laIt
icnshould
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rof2001
APFNU
dna uadata
eruB sand
usnewere
C acirereleased
mA fo setain
tS 1994
detinUand 2004 resp
10 - 14
8 931
8 862
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sis of assumptions
dna cihrelating
p10
ar040
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ht 9ylfuture
ralucitrabehaviour
p ,m
et ASof
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troper noit10
cprojections
ej636
orp noitaluare
pop made
eht fo on
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tcudbasis
orp ehof
t assumptions
15 - 19
741
9 a464
20
24
10
095
10
239
10
283
9
199
8
610
hich make up ethe
and
ht ocomponents
t detacided of
snopopulation
itanimreted change.
elbatnuoThis
cnu is
elevels
ht rof of
,Mfertility,
ANU sa mortality
llew sa ,n
oisivmigration,
id scitsitatwhich
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25 - 29
7 913
8 251
8 566
9 563 rd
8 543
e been constructed
and
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ot redrat
o n5both
i572
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carp otn5i 723
denruregional
t eb ll5iw929
troper sThe
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n466
i sg3nidtime
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tahpopulation
t epoh I .troprojections
per siht fo nohave
itcudbeen
orp constructed
30 - 34
35
39
4
677
4
628
4
595
5
056
6
516
2011 (base year) to 2041. Additional projection
ispthirty
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dorp dethat
sserprojected
dda era seuperiod
ssi tnem
olevedyears,
lanoitathat
n ruois,tafrom
ht eru2011
sne (base year) t
40 - 44
3 784
3 933
4 047
4 017
4 456
le upon requests
as on the 2NSA
45 - 49 as well
2 673
730 website.2 808
3are
468 not provided
3 464 herein will be made available upon requests as
55 - 59States of
1 417
1 421 through
1 451
043recognize the government of the United State
of the United
America (USA)
USAID, the1I806
would like2 to
60 - 64
1 227
1 232
1 229
1 230
1 538
UNFPA for
and
financial support
States
of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providi
65 -providing
69
1technical
022
1 022
1 024 during
1United
048
1 059
70
74
831
831
833
842
861
n report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic andthe production of the population projection report. The NSA t
75 - 79
612
607
605
605
618
, for the80+
uncountable
determinations
dedicated
1 039
980
927 to theVital
775 Statistics
721division, as well as UNAM, for the uncount
ndings in this report will be turned into practice in order toproduction of this report. I hope that the findings in this repor
Female
100 378
101 801
103 242
110 703
118 049
RELTYETissues
S NHOJare
.RDaddressed prod
are addressed
that12our
0 - 4 productively.
12 150
12 315
12 366
12ensure
661
415national development
LARENEG–NAICITSITATS
5-9
9 933
10 387
10 934
12 256
12 573
10 - 14
9 412
9 322
9 313
10 912
12 239
YCNEGA SCITSITATS AIBIMAN
i
1 to 2041
9 483
11 093
10 320
9 593
11 354
9 984
9 525
10 546
6 999
8 732
5 646
6 530
5 094
5 310
3 886
4 806
3DR.
638 JOHN STEYTLER
3 709
2STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
609
3 491
2 120
2 408
STATISTICS
AGENCY
1NAMIBIA
494
1 843
1 078
1 203
1 628
1 574
1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
i
42
Namibia 2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
Foreword
Medium Variant
Table 3.21 Oshikoto Projected Population by Sex, Growth Rate and Components of Growth, 2011-2041
FOREWARD
Exponential
Net
Year
Total
Male
Female
Sex Ratio
Births
Deaths
Growth Rate
Migration
2011Information
182 435 about
87 623
94 812
–
0.92prerequisite
5 457 for 2any
396 objective
- 703 and realistic
future population
is an important
2012
184 822
88 856
95 966
1.300
0.93
5 478
2 341
- 703
provide information
population,
2013development
187 289 plan.
90 Population
111
97 projections
178
1.326
0.93
5on
511the total
2 297
- 704 age and sex
2014structure
189 835
91 403 population
98 432 of a country.
1.350 Such0.93
5 549is essential
2 260 for the
- 704
of the future
information
formulation of
2015
192 469
92 743
99 726
1.378
0.93
5 578
2 232
- 702
as monitoring
of all
2016national
195 development
165
94 100programmes,
101 065 as well
1.391
0.93 and5evaluating
610
2 the
209 implementation
- 702
Foreword
2017development
197 901 plans
95and
479 programs
102 422
1.392
0.93
5
633
2
191
702
at national and regional levels.
2018
200 686
96 868
103 818
1.397
0.93
5 659
2 174
- 702
2019
203 522
98 287
105 235
1.403
0.93
5 681
2 157
- 703
The last
population
projections
were produced
by the0.93
Central Bureau
of Statistics
based
on 1991 and
FOREWARD
2020
206 385
99 713
106 672
1.397
5 689
2 146
- 703
census
released
in 1994
that
20212001 209
270 data
101and
149 were108
121
1.388 and 2004
0.94 respectively.
5 698 It should
2 140 be -appreciated
704
2022
212
160
102
583
109
577
1.372
0.94
5
701
2
132
704
Information
future
is basis
an important
prerequisite
objective
andof realistic
populationabout
projections
arepopulation
made on the
of assumptions
relating tofortheany
future
behaviour
the
2023
215 062
104 023
111 039
1.359
0.94
5 701
2 125
- 704
development
plan.
Population
projections
provide
information
on
the
total
population,
age
and
levels
of
fertility,
mortality
and
migration,
which
make
up
the
components
of
population
change.
This
is sex
2024
217 963
105 463
112 500
1.340
0.94
5 698
2 122
- 704
rd
2025
220
853
106
893
113
960
1.317
0.94
5
691
2
121
704
structure
the
future
population
of a have
country.
information
essential
the formulation
the 3 of
time
that
population
projections
been Such
constructed
at bothisnational
andfor
regional
levels. The of
2026
223 747
108 319
115 428
1.302
0.94
5 685
2 126
- 704
national
development
programmes,
as from
well
as monitoring
evaluating
implementation
of all
projected
period109
is thirty
years,
that is,
2011
(base0.94
year) and
to 52041.
Additional
2027
226
625
738
116 887
1.278
676
2 130theprojection
- 705 tables that
2028
229
483
111
142
118
341
1.253
0.94
5
673
2
127
705
development
plans herein
and programs
at national
regional
levels.
are not provided
will be made
availableand
upon
requests
as well as on the NSA website.
2029
232 322
112 535
119 787
1.230
0.94
5 667
2 129
- 705
2030
235 153
113 921
121 232
1.211
0.94
5 666
2 133
- 704
TheI last
population
projections
were
byUnited
the0.94
Central
of2 Statistics
on 1991
would
like
of the
States 5Bureau
of653
America
(USA) through
the and
2031
237
974 to recognize
115
303 the
122government
671 produced
1.193
138
- based
704 USAID,
2032
240
760
124
097
1.164
0.94
5 technical
634
140
- 704
2001
census
data
and663
were
released
1994
andfor
2004
respectively.
It2and
should
be
appreciated
United
States
of 116
America
Census
Bureauinand
UNFPA
providing
financial
support
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2033
243 527
118 012
125 515
1.143
0.94
5 605
2 146
- 704
population
are
made
on
the basis
of assumptions
to
the the
future
of the
the production
of
population
projection
report.
The
Demographic
2034
246 projections
247
119the
341
126 906
1.111
0.94NSA team,
5relating
578particularly
2 158
- 704behaviourand
2035
248
926
120
650
128
276
1.082
0.94
5
541
2
163
704
levels
of Statistics
fertility, mortality
migration,
which
up the components
of population
change.
This is
Vital
division, and
as well
as UNAM,
formake
the uncountable
determinations
dedicated
to the
2036 rd 251 556
121 930
129 626
1.051
0.94
5 502
2 176
- 704
the production
3 time
that
population
have
beeninconstructed
both
national
regional
levels.
of this
hope
that the
findings
this
be turned
practice
in order
to The
2037
254 139
123report.
191 Iprojections
130 948
1.022
0.94report will
5at455
2 182intoand
- 704
2038
256
666
124
424
132
242
0.989
0.94
5
400
2
187
703
projected
thirty years,
that is,issues
from are
2011
(base year)
to 2041. Additional projection tables that
ensure period
that ourisnational
development
addressed
productively.
2039
259 126
125 624
133 502
0.954
0.94
5 343
2 200
- 703
are not provided
will be134
made
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as5well
2040
261 514 herein
126 798
716 available
0.917
0.94
280 as on2 the
215 NSA website.
- 703
2041
263 828
127 932
135 896
0.881
0.94
5 214
2 222
- 703
I would
like to
Note:
“ -–” Means
Notrecognize
Applicable
the government of the United States of America (USA) through USAID, the
United States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providing technical and financial support during
the production of the population projection report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic and
Vital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to the
production of this report. I hope that the findings in this report will be turned into practice in order to
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
43
i
i
droweroF
Medium Variant
Table 3.22 Oshikoto Projected Population by Sex and Five-Year Age Group - 2014,
DRAWEROF
2015, 2016, 2021, 2026
Age
2014
2015
2016
2021
2026
dna835
evitcejbo
a rof et195
isiuq165
ererp tna209
tro270
pmi na s223
i no747
italupop erutuf tuoba noitamrofnI
Totalcitsilaer 189
192yn
469
0 - 4 xes dna e26
600
ga652
,noitalupo26
p 569
latot eht n26
o n
oitamrofn27
i e424
divorp sno27
itc734
ejorp noitalupoP .nalp tnempoleved
5-9
24 420
25 215
25 826
26 273
27 151
fo noitalu23
mr440
of eht rof 23
lai225
tnesse si n23
oit178
amrofni hc25
uS950
.yrtnuoc a26fo409
noitalupop erutuf eht fo erutcurts
10 - 14
15 - 19
174sa llew 25
lla fo noi24
tat147
nemelpmi 24
eh144
t gnitaulav24
e d073
na gnirotin23om
sa 947
,semmargorp tnempoleved lanoitan
20 - 24
19 340
20 424
21 306
22 346
21 482
Foreword
.slevel lano18
ige411
r dna lanoi19
tan496
ta smargorp dna snalp tnempoleved
25 - 29
12 525
12 922
13 485
30 - 34
9 863
9 841
9 869
11 298
16 165
35 - 39
dna 1991 n9o101
desab scits9it037
atS fo uaeru8B976
lartneC ehFOREWARD
t8 y813
b decudor10
p e218
rew snoitcejorp noitalupop tsal ehT
40 - 44
8 017
8 254
8 432
8 457
8 354
taht detaic6e906
rppa eb dlu6o945
hs tI .ylevit7ce038
pser 4002 8dn068
a 4991 ni 8de133
saeler erew dna atad susnec 1002
45 - 49
n important
important
prere
50 - 54
167
eprerequisite
ht fo ruoi5va845
hefor
b erany
utuf6eobjective
ht ot gnitaand
le6r419
snrealistic
oitpmusInformation
s6a806
fo sisab eh7about
t 799
no edafuture
m era spopulation
noitcejorp nis
oitaan
lupo
p
55 - 59
4 367
4 491
4 669and sexdevelopment
6 125
6 plan.
511 Population projections provide informatio
provide information
on
the
total
population,
age
s
i
s
i
h
T
.
e
g
n
a
h
c
n
o
i
t
a
l
u
p
o
p
f
o
s
t
n
e
n
o
p
m
o
c
e
h
t
p
u
e
k
a
m
h
c
i
h
w
,
n
o
i
t
a
r
g
i
m
d
n
a
y
t
i
l
a
t
r
o
m
,
y
t
i
l
i
t
r
e
f
f
o
s
l
e
v
e
l
60 - 64
3 914
3 964
4 019
4 463
5 808
untry. Such65information
- 69
363
424
3c 748
4no
174
ehT .slevel3lais
noessential
iger dna l3afor
noitathe
n htformulation
ob 3ta484
detcurtsof
nostructure
neeb evaof
h sthe
itcfuture
ejorp npopulation
oitalupop tahof
t eamicountry.
t dr3 eht Such informa
70 - 74 and evaluating
l as monitoring
implementation
taht selbat21n621
oitcejorpthe
lan21o687
itiddA .140221 o754
t )raeof
y eall
sanational
b32(036
1102 mdevelopment
orf ,32si272
taht ,sraeprogrammes,
y ytriht si doireas
p dwell
etcejoasrpmonitoring an
75 - 79
865
886
912
166
387
and regional
80+ levels.
3 449
2n712
707
.etisbew ASN3 274
eht no sa lle3w125
sa stseuqerdevelopment
opu elbaliav2aplans
edamand
eb lprograms
liw niereh datednational
ivorp tonand
era regional levels
91 h403
ced by theMale
Central
on
eht ,DIBureau
ASU
guof
orhStatistics
t )AS92
U(743
acbased
iremA f94
o s100
e1991
tatS dand
et101
inThe
U149
ehlast
t fo population
tn108
emn319
revogprojections
eht ezingocewere
r ot eproduced
kil dluow Iby the Central
0-4
13 509
13 493
13 514
13 920
14 068
994 and 2004
census
irud tro12
pp333
us laIt
icnshould
anif12dn699
a be
lacinappreciated
hce13
t gn
idivorpthat
ro13
f2001
A321
PFNU
dna u13
adata
e750
ruB sand
usnewere
C acirereleased
mA fo setain
tS 1994
detinUand 2004 resp
5 - 9 gnrespectively.
000
10
14
11
907
11
828
11
813
13
076
13
404
sis of assumptions
dna cihrelating
pargometo
D ethe
ht ylfuture
ralucitrabehaviour
p ,maet ASof
N ethe
hT population
.troper noitcprojections
ejorp noitaluare
pop made
eht fo on
noithe
tcudbasis
orp ehof
t assumptions
15 - 19
12 417
12 392
12 344
12 004
13 271
hich make20
up- 24
levels
and
ethe
ht ocomponents
t de10ta115
cided of
snopopulation
i10
tan702
imreted change.
e11
lba181
tnuoThis
cnu is
e11
ht652
rof of
,Mfertility,
AN11
U 322
sa mortality
llew sa ,n
oisivmigration,
id scitsitatwhich
S latiVmake up the c
rd
25
29
6
260
6
545
6
904
9
624
10
122
e been constructed
ot redrat
o nboth
i ecitnational
carp otni and
denruregional
t eb lliw levels.
troper sThe
iht the
ni sg3nidtime
nif ehthat
t tahpopulation
t epoh I .troprojections
per siht fo nohave
itcudbeen
orp constructed
30 - 34
4 580
4 550
4 564
5 596
8 274
2011 (base
projection
ispthirty
.ylevitc4utables
dorp dethat
sserprojected
d
a era seuperiod
ssi4t859
nem
olevedyears,
lanoitathat
n ruois,tafrom
ht eru2011
sne (base year) t
35 year)
- 39 to 2041.
4 074Additional
4 057
032
3 d866
40
44
3
318
3
424
3
506
3
586
3
462
le upon requests as well as on the NSA website.
are not provided herein will be made available upon requests as
45 - 49
2 767
2 768
2 790
3 209
3 305
50 - 54
2 260
2 399
2 510
2 619
3 015
of the United
States of1America
(USA)
theI2would
like to
recognize the government of the United State
55 - 59
641
1 674through1USAID,
734
325
2 434
60
64
1
644
1
617
1
596
1
661
2
189
UNFPA for providing technical and financial support duringUnited States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providi
65 - 69
1 501
1 546
1 575
1 504
1 569
n report. The
NSA team,
particularly
the Demographic
andthe
of the population projection report. The NSA t
70 - 74
1 105
1 126
1 156
1 359production
1 301
- 79
777
793 dedicated
803 to theVital
873 Statistics
1 020
, for the 75uncountable
determinations
division, as well as UNAM, for the uncount
80+
1 195
1 130
1 078
954
954
ndings in this report will be turned into practice in order toproduction of this report. I hope that the findings in this repor
Femaleproductively.
98 432
99 726
101 065
108
121 that115
RELTYETissues
S NHOJare
.RDaddressed prod
are addressed
ensure
our428
national development
0-4
13 143
13 076
13 086
13 504
13 666
L
A
R
E
N
E
G
–
N
A
I
C
I
T
S
I
T
A
TS
5-9
12 087
12 516
12 826
12 952
13 401
YCNEGA SCITSITATS AIBIMAN
10 - 14
11 533
11 397
11 365
12 874
13 005
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80+
i
1 to 2041
11 730
9 225
6 265
5 283
5 027
4 699
4 139
3 585
2 726
2 270
1 862
1 516
1 088
2 254
11 752
9 722
6 377
5 291
4 980
4 830
4 177
3 768
2 817
2 347
1 878
1 561
1 093
2 144
11 729
10 125
6 581
5 305
4 944
4 926
4 248
3 909
2 935
2 423
1 909
1 598
1 109
2 047
11 170
12 676
10 694
10 160
8 787
9 374
5 702
7 891
4 947
5 359
4 871
4 892
4 859
4 828
4 187
4 784
DR.
JOHN STEYTLER
3 800
4 077
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
2 802
3 619
2 244
2 605
NAMIBIA
STATISTICS
AGENCY
1 677
1 971
1 293
1 367
1 758
1 753
1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
i
44
Namibia 2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
Foreword
Medium Variant
Table
3.23 Otjozondjupa Projected Population by Sex, Growth Rate and Components of Growth, 2011-2041
FOREWARD
Exponential
Net
Year
Total
Male
Female
Sex Ratio
Births
Deaths
Growth
Rate
Migration
Information about future population is an important prerequisite for any objective and realistic
2011
144 248
74 332
69 916
–
1.06
4 705
1 626
-1 046
projections
provide
the total1 607
population,
age and sex
2012development
146 262plan. Population
75 378
70 884
1.387 information
1.06 on
4 693
-1 046
2013structure
148of296
76
435
71
861
1.381
1.06
4
679
1
586
-1
046
the future population of a country. Such information is essential for the formulation of
2014
150 328
77 490
72 838
1.361
1.06
4 647
1 563
-1 046
development
as well as1.331
monitoring
the
of all
2015national152
343
78programmes,
534
73 809
1.06and evaluating
4 610
1 540implementation
-1 047
Foreword
2016development
154 342plans and
79programs
561
74
781
1.304
1.06
4
566
1
519
-1
047
at national and regional levels.
2017
156 309
80 569
75 740
1.266
1.06
4 513
1 498
-1 047
2018
158 237
81 558
76 679
1.226
1.06
4 463
1 475
-1 047
population
projections
were
produced1.183
by the Central
on 1991 and
2019The last160
120
82 510
77 610
1.06 Bureau
4 408 of Statistics
1 461 based
-1 047
FOREWARD
20202001 census
161 968data and
83 were
448 released
78 520in 19941.148
4 356 It should
1 449 be appreciated
-1 047
and 20041.06
respectively.
that
2021
163 776
84 362
79 414
1.110
1.06
4 304
1 440
-1 047
Information
about
future
population
is basis
an important
prerequisite
for 1any
objective
andof realistic
projections
on291
the
of assumptions
future
behaviour
the
2022population
165 550
85are
259made 80
1.077
1.06 relating
4 251 to the
422
-1 047
development
plan.
Population
projections
provide
information
on
the
total
population,
age
and
levels
of
fertility,
mortality
and
migration,
which
make
up
the
components
of
population
change.
This
is sex
2023
167 286
86 131
81 155
1.043
1.06
4 206
1 417
-1 047
rd 169 004
2024
86
995
82
009
1.022
1.06
4
168
1
398
-1
047
structure
the
future
population
of a have
country.
information
essential
the formulation
the 3 of
time
that
population
projections
been Such
constructed
at bothisnational
andfor
regional
levels. The of
2025
170 687
87 839
82 848
0.991
1.06
4 139
1 396
-1 047
national
development
programmes,
as from
well 2011
as0.975
monitoring
theprojection
implementation
of all
years, that
is,
(base year)
to 2041.
2026projected
172period
359 is thirty
88 686
83 673
1.06 and
4evaluating
118Additional
1 390
-1 047tables that
2027
174
017
89
521
84
496
0.957
1.06
4
101
1
382
-1
047
development
plans herein
and programs
at national
regional
levels.
are not provided
will be made
availableand
upon
requests
as well as on the NSA website.
2028
175 672
90 358
85 314
0.947
1.06
4 081
1 382
-1 047
2029
177 317
91 188
86 129
0.932
1.06
4 071
1 382
-1 047
The
population
projections
were
produced
byUnited
the Central
of Statistics
based
on 1991
would
like950
to recognize
the government
of the
States Bureau
of4 062
America
the and
2030I last
178
92 012
86 938
0.917
1.06
1(USA)
382 through
-1 046USAID,
2031United
180 data
577of America
830
87 747inand
0.905
1.06
4 059
1should
389
-1support
046
2001
census
and 92
were
released
1994
andfor
2004
respectively.
Itand
be
appreciated
States
Census
Bureau
UNFPA
providing
technical
financial
during that
2032
182 198
93 651
88 547
0.894
1.06
4 055
1 387
-1 046
population
projections
are
made on
the basisreport.
of assumptions
relating
to 1the
future
behaviourand
of the
population
projection
The NSA
particularly
Demographic
2033the production
183
810 of the94
463
89
347
0.881
1.06 team,
4 046
390the
-1 047
2034Vital
185 420 mortality
95 273
90
0.872
4 032
1of397
-1 047change.
levels
of Statistics
fertility,
and
migration,
which
make
up1.06
the components
population
This is
division,
as well
as 147
UNAM,
for
the uncountable
determinations
dedicated
to the
2035 rd
187 004
96 077
90 927
0.851
1.06
4 014
1 397
-1 047
the
3 time
that
population
have
been
at3 both
national
regional
levels.
of this
report.
Iprojections
hope that
the
findings
inconstructed
this report
be turned
intoand
practice
to The
2036production
188
573
96 866
91 707
0.836
1.06 will
989
1 401
-1
047in order
2037ensure period
190 102
97years,
639
92is,
463
0.808
1.06
960 Additional
1 403 projection
-1 047
projected
thirty
that
from are
2011
(base year)
to 32041.
tables that
that
ourisnational
development
issues
addressed
productively.
2038
191 606
98 400
93 206
0.788
1.06
3 928
1 407
-1 047
are
not provided
herein99
will
be made
available upon
requests
as well
as on the
NSA website.
2039
193 065
135
93 930
0.759
1.06
3 893
1 415
-1 047
2040
194 475
99 846
94 629
0.728
1.06
3 850
1 413
-1 047
I2041
would like
recognize
the government
United1.05
States 3of801
America
(USA) through
USAID, the
195to836
100 534
95 302 of the
0.697
1 423
-1 047
Note:
“ –”States
Means Not
United
of Applicable
America
Census Bureau and UNFPA for providing technical and financial support during
the production of the population projection report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic and
Vital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to the
production of this report. I hope that the findings in this report will be turned into practice in order to
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
45
i
i
droweroF
Medium Variant
Table 3.24 Otjozondjupa Projected Population by Sex and Five-Year Age Group DRAWEROF
2014, 2015, 2016, 2021, 2026
Age
2014
2015
2016
2021
2026
Total citsilaer150
dn328
a evitcejb152
o y343
na rof e154
tisiu342
qererp tn163
atro776
pmi na 172
si n359
oitalupop erutuf tuoba noitamrofnI
0-4
22 112
22 206
22 274
21 330
20 288
xes dna 18
ega917
,noitalup19
op 781
latot eht n20o 471
noitamrofn21i e993
divorp sno21itc108
ejorp noitalupoP .nalp tnempoleved
5-9
10 - 14
14m926
15oi461
fo noitalu
rof eht rof15la078
itnesse si n
tamrofni h19
cuS241
.yrtnuoc 20
a f811
o noitalupop erutuf eht fo erutcurts
15 - 19
13 366
13 378
13 297
13 577
17 334
lla fo no13
ita480
tnemelpmi13
eh048
t gnitaulav12
e 717
dna gnirot12
ino492
m sa llew 12
sa795
,semmargorp tnempoleved lanoitan
20 - 24
Foreword
25 - 29
13 717
13 997
14 120
.slevel lano12ig601
er dna lano12
ita430
n ta smargorp dna snalp tnempoleved
30 - 34
11 457
11 750
12 088
13 681
12 331
35 - 39
131
dna 1991 9n804
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n important eprerequisite
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ht fo ruoivahefor
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sa fo sisab ehabout
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4 180
4 276
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4 888
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provide information
on
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provide
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s
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i
h
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g
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h
c
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70 - 74
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and regional levels.
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3 013
3 528
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80+
6 706
6 452
6 347
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4 671
3 964
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386JOHN STEYTLER
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NAMIBIA
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15 - 19
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028
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742
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523
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hich make up ethe
and
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ht rof of
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25 - 29
7 370
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6 550
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ot redrat
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carp otn6i and
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enruregional
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per siht fo nohave
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orp constructed
30 - 34
6i 080
6t 574
35
39
5
133
5
237
5
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2011 (base year) to 2041. Additional projection
ispthirty
.ylevitcutables
dorp dethat
sserprojected
dda era seuperiod
ssi tnem
olevedyears,
lanoitathat
n ruois,tafrom
ht eru2011
sne (base year) t
40 - 44
4 141
4 271
4 389
4 890
5 545
le upon requests
as on the NSA
45 - 49 as well
3 400
3 400website.3 432
3are
973not provided
4 451 herein will be made available upon requests as
55 - 59States of2 140
2 164 through2 199
545
of the United
America (USA)
USAID, the2I 502
would like 2to
recognize the government of the United State
60 - 64
1 569
1 610
1 641
1 757
2 035
UNFPA for
technical
and1 financial
support
of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providi
65 -providing
69
992
042
1 087 during1United
271 States
1 378
70
74
601
601
615
802
953
n report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic andthe production of the population projection report. The NSA t
75 - 79
443
434
429
407
548
, for the80+
uncountable 565
determinations
535 dedicated
507 to theVital
415 Statistics368division, as well as UNAM, for the uncount
ndings in this report will be turned into practice in order toproduction of this report. I hope that the findings in this repor
Female
72 838
73 809
74 781
79 414
83 673
RELTYETissues
S NHOJare
.RDaddressed prod
are addressed
our
0 - 4 productively.
10 877
10 953
10 985
10ensure
521 that10
009national development
LARENEG–NAICITSITATS
5-9
9 177
9 592
9 963
10 862
10 428
10 - 14
7 401
7 438
7 588
9 358
10 274
YCNEGA SCITSITATS AIBIMAN
i
1 to 2041
1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
i
46
Namibia 2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
Foreword
Medium Variant
Table 3.25 Zambezi Projected Population by Sex, Growth Rate and Components of Growth, 2011-2041
FOREWARD
Exponential
Net
Year
Total
Male
Female
Sex Ratio
Births
Deaths
Growth Rate
Migration
2011Information
90 756 about44future
338
46 418
–
0.96 prerequisite
3 132
1 309
- 278 and realistic
population
is an important
for
any objective
2012
92 312
45 133
47 179
1.700
0.96
3 152
1 296
- 278
provide information
2013development
93 905 plan.45Population
947
47 projections
958
1.711
0.96
3 173on the1 total
277 population,
- 278 age and sex
2014structure
95 526
46 771 population
48 755 of a country.
1.711 Such
0.96information
3 185 is essential
1 265
278 formulation of
of the future
for - the
2015
97 176
47 605
49 571
1.713
0.96
3 196
1 252
- 278
as monitoring
and
of all
2016national
98development
849
48 443programmes,
50 406 as well
1.707
0.96
3 202evaluating
1 247 the implementation
- 278
Foreword
2017development
100 547 plans49and
292programs
51 255
1.703
0.96
3
204
1
233
278
at national and regional levels.
2018
102 264
50 148
52 116
1.693
0.96
3 203
1 220
- 278
2019
103 970
50 998
52 972
1.654
0.96
3 200
1 214
278
The last
population
projections
were produced
by the
Central
Bureau of
Statistics --based
on 1991 and
FOREWARD
2020
105 706
51 863
53 843
1.656
0.96
3 194
1 204
278
census
released
in 1994
2004 respectively.
should be
appreciated that
20212001 107
433 data52and
721were 54
712
1.621 and 0.96
3 184
1It193
- 278
2022
109
160
53
574
55
586
1.595
0.96
3
179
1
183
278
Information
future
is basis
an important
prerequisite
objective
andof realistic
populationabout
projections
arepopulation
made on the
of assumptions
relating tofortheany
future
behaviour
the
2023
110 891
54 432
56 459
1.573
0.96
3 173
1 169
- 278
development
plan.
Population
projections
provide
information
on
the
total
population,
age
and
levels
of
fertility,
mortality
and
migration,
which
make
up
the
components
of
population
change.
This
is sex
2024
112 628
55 291
57 337
1.554
0.96
3 171
1 162
- 278
rd114 367
2025
56
156
58
211
1.532
0.96
3
170
1
160
278
structure
the
future
population
of a have
country.
information
essential
the formulation
the 3 of
time
that
population
projections
been Such
constructed
at bothisnational
andfor
regional
levels. The of
2026
116 110
57 010
59 100
1.513
0.96
3 166
1 158
- 278
national
development
programmes,
as from
well
as monitoring
evaluating
of all
projected
period is57thirty
years,
that is,
2011
(base
to
Additional
tables that
2027
117
850
867
59 983
1.487
0.96year)3and
1682041.
1 150 theprojection
-implementation
278
2028
119
596
58
724
60
872
1.471
0.96
3
170
1
149
278
development
plans herein
and programs
at national
regional
levels.
are not provided
will be made
availableand
upon
requests
as well as on the NSA website.
2029
121 334
59 581
61 753
1.443
0.96
3 172
1 153
- 278
2030
123 074
60 431
62 643
1.424
0.96
3 172
1 151
- 278
TheI last
population
projections
were
byUnited
the
of Statistics
basedUSAID,
on 1991
would
of the
States
of America
(USA) through
the and
2031
124like
809to recognize
61
277 the63government
532 produced
1.400
0.96Central
3 173Bureau
1 147
- 278
2032
126
548
62 127
64 421
1.384
0.96
3 172technical
1 146
- 278
2001
census
data
and
were
released
1994
andfor
2004
respectively.
Itand
should
be support
appreciated
United
States
of America
Census
Bureauinand
UNFPA
providing
financial
during that
2033
128 289
62 966
65 323
1.366
0.96
3 170
1 142
- 278
population
are
made
on
the basis
of assumptions
relating
to the the
future
behaviourand
of the
the production
the
population
projection
report.
The NSA3 163
team,
particularly
Demographic
2034
130projections
024 of 63
811
66 213
1.343
0.96
1 136
- 278
2035
131
747
64
649
67
098
1.316
0.96
3
152
1
136
278
levels
of Statistics
fertility, mortality
migration,
which
up the components
of population
change.
This is
Vital
division, and
as well
as UNAM,
formake
the uncountable
determinations
dedicated
to the
2036 rd 133 455
65 475
67 980
1.288
0.96
3 139
1 139
- 278
the production
3 time
population
have
beeninconstructed
at both
national
levels.
of this
report.
hope
that the
findings
this report
will
be 1turned
in order
to The
2037
135 that
150
66
291 Iprojections
68 859
1.262
0.96
3 126
139 intoand
-practice
278regional
2038
136
805
67
088
69
717
1.217
0.96
3
106
1
148
278
projected
thirty years,
that is,issues
from are
2011
(base year)
to 2041. Additional projection tables that
ensure period
that ourisnational
development
addressed
productively.
2039
138 461
67 892
70 569
1.203
0.96
3 085
1 144
- 278
are not provided
will be71
made
upon requests
website.
2040
140 062 herein
68 660
402 available
1.150
0.96
3 as
059well as1 on
156the NSA
- 278
2041
141 637
69 414
72 223
1.118
0.96
3 025
1 163
- 278
I would
like to
Note:
“ – “ Means
Notrecognize
Applicable
the government of the United States of America (USA) through USAID, the
United States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providing technical and financial support during
the production of the population projection report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic and
Vital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to the
production of this report. I hope that the findings in this report will be turned into practice in order to
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
47
i
i
droweroF
Medium Variant
Table 3.26 Zambezi Projected Population by Sex and Five-Year Age Group - 2014,
DRAWEROF
2015, 2016, 2021, 2026
Age
2014
2015
2016
2021
2026
Total citsilaer95d526
na evitcejb97
o 176
yna rof e98
tisi849
uqererp t107
nat433
ropmi na116
si 110
noitalupop erutuf tuoba noitamrofnI
0-4
14 267
14 429
14 593
14 858
14 872
xes dna11e924
ga ,noitalu12
pop420latot eht12no859
noitamro14
fni197
edivorp sn14oi511
tcejorp noitalupoP .nalp tnempoleved
5-9
10 - 14
070
827
fo noita11
lum
rof eht ro10f 979
laitnesse si10no993
itamrofni 12
hcu
S .yrtnuoc14a158
fo noitalupop erutuf eht fo erutcurts
15 - 19
11 285
11 420
11 476
11 154
12 989
lla fo no9it623
atnemelpmi9 e990
ht gnitaula10ve335
dna gniro11
tin295
om sa llew11s014
a ,semmargorp tnempoleved lanoitan
20 - 24
Foreword
25 - 29
7 931
7 921
8 005
.slevel lan9oi582
ger dna lan10
oit547
an ta smargorp dna snalp tnempoleved
30 - 34
6 661
6 855
6 967
6 977
8 556
35 - 39
058
dna 19915 274
no desab sc5it223
sitatS fo uae5r240
uB lartneC e6hFOREWARD
t yb decudo6rp118
erew snoitcejorp noitalupop tsal ehT
40 - 44
4 454
4 645
4 771
4 661
5 446
taht deta3i245
cerppa eb d3lu301
ohs tI .ylev3it405
cepser 40024 326
dna 4991 n4i 245
desaeler erew dna atad susnec 1002
45 - 49
50
54
2
738
2
836
2
909
3
148
4
029
n important eprerequisite
important
prere
ht fo ruoivahefor
b erany
utuf eobjective
ht ot gnitaand
ler snrealistic
oitpmusInformation
sa fo sisab ehabout
t no edafuture
m era spopulation
noitcejorp nis
oitaan
lupo
p
55 - 59
1 843
1 995
2 145
2 692
2 929
provide information
on
the
total
population,
age
and
sex
development
plan.
Population
projections
provide
informatio
s
i
s
i
h
T
.
e
g
n
a
h
c
n
o
i
t
a
l
u
p
o
p
f
o
s
t
n
e
n
o
p
m
o
c
e
h
t
p
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e
k
a
m
h
c
i
h
w
,
n
o
i
t
a
r
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d
n
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y
t
i
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t
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y
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f
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l
e
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l
60 - 64
1 357
1 330
1 349
1 930
2 440
65 information
- 69
215
untry. Such
the
ehT .slev1el266
laisnoessential
iger dn1a 304
lafor
noitathe
n htformulation
o1b309
ta detcurtsof
n1ostructure
c neeb evaof
h1 s736
noitcfuture
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oitalupop tahof
t eamicountry.
t dr3 eht Such informa
70 - 74
872
891
925
1 094
1 021
l as monitoring
tahtand
selbaevaluating
t612
noitcejorpthe
la603
noimplementation
itiddA .140599
2 ot )raeof
y eall
sanational
b( 1102 mdevelopment
orf 785
,si taht ,sraeprogrammes,
y ytriht si doireas
p dwell
etcejoasrpmonitoring an
75 - 79
659
80+
1
104
1
034
969
760
714
and regional levels.
.etisbew ASN eht no sa llew sa stseuqerdevelopment
nopu elbaliavaplans
edamand
eb lprograms
liw niereh datednational
ivorp tonand
era regional levels
Male
46 771
47 605
48 443
52 721
57 010
50 - 54
1 209
1 256
1 294
1 460
1 921
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80+
5 574
4 911
4 131
3 435
2 622
2 166
1 706
1 529
1 047
788
772
533
382
760
5 622
5 054
4 141
3 542
2 644
2 256
1 723
1 580
1 134
766
795
548
377
709
5 634
5 190
4 190
3 609
2 694
2 325
1 766
1 615
1 221
771
796
574
373
662
5 461
6 396
5 559
5 405
4 829
5 203
3 698
4 342
3 188
3 296
2 455
2 937
2 195
2 324
1 688
2 108
1 DR.
520 JOHN STEYTLER
1 596
1 STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
106
1 390
708
1 014
NAMIBIA
STATISTICS
AGENCY
684
613
424
507
510
477
ced by the
AS7U261
hguof
orhStatistics
t )A7S348
U( acbased
iremA 7fon
o402
se1991
tatS dand
et7inThe
U ehlast
t fo population
tn7em
nrevogprojections
eht ezingocewere
r ot eproduced
kil dluow Iby the Central
0 - Central
4 eht ,DIBureau
533
536
5
9
5
971
6
218
6
478
7
181
7
337
994 and 2004gnrespectively.
census
irud troppus laIt
icnshould
anif dna be
lacinappreciated
hcet gnidivorpthat
rof2001
APFNU
dna uadata
eruB sand
usnewere
C acirereleased
mA fo setain
tS 1994
detinUand 2004 resp
10 - 14
5 630
5 582
5 579
6 481
7 176
sis of assumptions
dna cihrelating
p5ar711
gometo
D ethe
ht 5y798
lfuture
ralucitrabehaviour
p ,m
aet ASof
N ethe
hT5 population
.troper noitc6projections
e593
jorp noitaluare
pop made
eht fo on
noithe
tcudbasis
orp ehof
t assumptions
15 - 19
5 842
693
20
24
4
712
4
936
5
145
5
736
5
609
hich make up ethe
and
ht ocomponents
t detacided of
snopopulation
itanimreted change.
elbatnuoThis
cnu is
elevels
ht rof of
,Mfertility,
ANU sa mortality
llew sa ,n
oisivmigration,
id scitsitatwhich
S latiVmake up the c
25 - 29
3 800
3 780
3 815
4 753 rd
5 344
e been constructed
and
levels.
ot redrat
o 3nboth
i ecitnational
carp ot3ni313
denruregional
t eb l3liw
troper sThe
ih3t the
ni sg3nidtime
nif e4hthat
t tahpopulation
t epoh I .troprojections
per siht fo nohave
itcudbeen
orp constructed
30 - 34
226
358
279
214
35
39
2
652
2
579
2
546
2
870
2
822
2011 (base year) to 2041. Additional projection
ispthirty
.ylevitcutables
dorp dethat
sserprojected
dda era seuperiod
ssi tnem
olevedyears,
lanoitathat
n ruois,tafrom
ht eru2011
sne (base year) t
40 - 44
2 288
2 389
2 446
2 206
2 509
le upon requests
as on the1NSA
45 - 49 as well
1 539
578 website.
1 639
2 are
131 not provided
1 921 herein will be made available upon requests as
55 - 59States of796
861 through924
1 I172
of the United
America (USA)
USAID, the
would like1 333
to recognize the government of the United State
60 - 64
569
564
578
824
1 050
UNFPA for
technical
and509
financial support
States722
of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providi
65 -providing
69
494
513 duringUnited
507
70
74
339
343
351
410
408
n report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic andthe production of the population projection report. The NSA t
75 - 79
230
226
226
235
278
, for the80+
uncountable344determinations
dedicated
325
307 to theVital
250 Statistics
237 division, as well as UNAM, for the uncount
ndings in this report will be turned into practice in order toproduction of this report. I hope that the findings in this repor
Female
48 755
49 571
50 406
54 712
59 100
RELTYETissues
S NHOJare
.RDaddressed prod
are addressed
that7our
0 - 4 productively.
7 006
7 081
7 191
7 ensure
325
336 national development
LARENEG–NAICITSITATS
5-9
5 953
6 202
6 381
7 016
7 174
10 - 14
5 440
5 397
5 414
6 346
6 982
YCNEGA SCITSITATS AIBIMAN
i
1 to 2041
1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
i
48
Namibia 2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
Foreword
Appendices: Methodology And Assumptions
FOREWARD
APPENDICES
APPEDIX
I: METHODOLOGY
ANDpopulation
ASSUMPTIONS
Information
about future
is an important prerequisite for any objective and realistic
development
plan.PROJECTIONS
Population projections
provide
informationUNDERLYING
on the totalTHE
population,
age and sex
COHORT
COMPONENT
METHODS AND
ASSUMPTIONS
PROJECTIONS
structure of the future population of a country. Such information is essential for the formulation of
a)
Cohort
Componentprogrammes,
Projections as well as monitoring and evaluating the implementation of all
national
development
Foreword
development plans and programs at national and regional levels.
The gold standard for population projections involves cohort component techniques. This approach begins
withThe
numerical
information
about population
size and
structure
age and
sex) in the
past.
population
last population
projections
were produced
by the
Central (by
Bureau
of Statistics
based
onThe
1991
and
isFOREWARD
then subjected to estimates of the three components of demographic change – births, deaths and net
2001 census data and were released in 1994 and 2004 respectively. It should be appreciated that
migration.
Information
future
is basis
an important
prerequisite
objective
andof realistic
populationabout
projections
arepopulation
made on the
of assumptions
relating tofortheany
future
behaviour
the
The
strength
ofplan.
themortality
cohort component
approach
is that
it reflects
processes
through
which
development
Population
provide
information
onthe
theactual
total
population,
ageThis
and
sex
levels
of fertility,
andprojections
migration,
which
make
up the
components
of
population
change.
is
rd
populations
change.
Thuspopulation
bumps
andof
indentations
population
structure
at
one
point
in
timeThe
tend of
to
structure
the
future
a have
country.
Such
information
isnational
essential
for
the formulation
the 3 of
time
that
population
projections
beenin
constructed
atage
both
and
regional
levels.
be
echoed
in
the
future
as
cohorts
reach
later
ages.
Another
advantage
of
the
cohort
component
approach
national
development
programmes,
as from
well 2011
as monitoring
evaluating
theprojection
implementation
of all
projected
period is thirty
years, that is,
(base year) and
to 2041.
Additional
tables that
isdevelopment
that,
in
addition
to
providing
population
estimates
by
age
and
sex,
key
demographic
indicators
are
readily
plans herein
and programs
at national
regional
levels.
are not provided
will be made
availableand
upon
requests
as well as on the NSA website.
summarized from the output of such models. These indicators include the three components of population
growth
(and
related
rates), as
as produced
the more
intuitive
measures
of demographic
change,
asand
life
TheI last
population
projections
were
by
the Central
of Statistics
based
onsuch
1991
would
like
to recognize
thewell
government
of the
United
States Bureau
of America
(USA) through
USAID,
the
expectancy
at
birth
and
total
fertility
rates.
2001
census
data
and were
released
1994
andfor
2004
respectively.
should
be support
appreciated
United
States
of America
Census
Bureauinand
UNFPA
providing
technicalItand
financial
during that
population
projections
are
made
on
the projections
basisreport.
of assumptions
relating
the the
future
behaviour
of and
the
thereport
production
of the
population
projection
The
team,
particularly
Demographic
and
In
this
separate
cohort
component
wereNSA
developed
forto
Namibia,
urban/rural
areas
levels
ofThe
fertility,
mortality
and
migration,
which
upwere
the components
of population
change.
This
is
Vital
Statistics
division,cohort
as well
as UNAM,
formake
the uncountable
determinations
dedicated
the
regions.
sub-national
component
projections
adjusted
slightly
to ensure
thattotheir
sum
rd
the production
3 time
population
have
been
atassumptions
both
national
and
regional
levels.
of this
report.
Iprojections
hope that
findings
inconstructed
this
report
be turned
into
practice
in order
to The
matched
the that
projection
for Namibia
as athe
whole.
Details
about
thewill
underlying
the
projections
are
described
below.
The
names
of
specialized
software
used
to
perform
some
of
the
calculations
are
projected
thirty years,
that is,issues
from are
2011
(base year)
to 2041. Additional projection tables that
ensure period
that ourisnational
development
addressed
productively.
indicated
in brackets.
are not provided
herein will be made available upon requests as well as on the NSA website.
b) Assumptions
Underlying
the Cohort Component
Projections
I would
like to recognize
the government
of the United
States of America (USA) through USAID, the
United States
of America
Census
anddate
UNFPA for providing technical and financial support during
i. Base
Population
andBureau
Mid-year
the production of the population projection report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic and
The 2011division,
census provided
population
age and sex determinations
from which the projections
began,
Vital Statistics
as well the
as base
UNAM,
for the by
uncountable
dedicated to
the
although
two
modifications
were
made
to
the
reported
census
counts.
First,
since
children
are
often
production of this report. I hope that the findings in this report will be turned into practice in order to
undercounted
in censuses, the national population under the age of 10 was adjusted upwards to be
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
consistent
with
assumed fertility and mortality. The upward adjustment increased the population
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
at
0-4
by
3.5
percent
for males and 0.8 percent for females and at 5-9 by 2.4 percent for males
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
(there was no adjusted indicated for females at this age). The tendency to undercount children was
assumed to be the same throughout all sub-national areas. Second, populations were backdated
from the time of the census date (August 28, 2011) to the mid-year (July 1, 2011).
ii.
Mortality
Death rates at most ages were calculated by dividing the deaths reported in the 2011 census
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
(referring to the preceding year) by age and sex by the corresponding population enumerated in the
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
census. At older ages however, indirect methods based on model life tables suggested that death
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
rates were underreported. Thus, at older ages the death rates indicated from a model life table were
used instead (NSA, 2014b). Death rates by age can be translated each year into a summary measure
of survival chances – years of life expectancy at birth – by using a life table. To project mortality into
the future in each area life expectancy at birth by sex was assumed to follow a fixed logistic pattern
of improvement in line with world historical trends. Thus, life expectancy (for both sexes combined)
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
was projected to increase by almost 11 years for men and almost 12 years for females between 2011
i
and 2041. The projections software uses projected life expectancies at birth to adjust the original
age-specific mortality rate pattern estimated for 2011.
iii.
i
Fertility
The age pattern of fertility was drawn from the 2011 census (reported births to women at childbearing
ages during the year before the census divided by women at that age group). It is normally assumed
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
49
i
i
droweroF
Appendices: Methodology And Assumptions
DRAWERdue
OF to
that reported Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from a census or surveys is usually underreported
recall errors by mothers in reporting the number of children born. This leads to estimation of TFR
citsusing
ilaer d
na evitcestimation
ejbo yna rtechniques
of etisiuqerthat
erp have
tnatrobeen
pmi ndeveloped
a si noitaland
upopare
errecognized
utuf tuoba in
nodemographic
itamrofnI
indirect
xesanalysis.
dna egaIn,nthis
oitalcase,
upop the
latoP/F
t ehratio
t no and
noitaArriaga’s
mrofni edmethods
ivorp sno(NSA,
itcejor2014a).
p noitalupoP .nalp tnempoleved
fo noitalumrof eht rof laitnesse si noitamrofni hcuS .yrtnuoc a fo noitalupop erutuf eht fo erutcurts
fertility
lla As
fo anoresult
itatnem
elpmi erates
ht gnat
itaeach
ulave age
dnawere
gniroadjusted
tinom sa upwards
llew sa ,sby
em8
mapercent.
rgorp tneReported
mpolevedfertility
lanoitanrates
for sub-national areas were adjusted
upwards by the same amount. The resulting adjusted TFR in
.sForeword
level lanoiger dna lanoitan ta smargorp dna snalp tnempoleved
Namibia was 3.9 births per a woman’s lifetime. Based on historical trends the TFR was then projected
raked
dnato1decline
991 no dlinearly
esab scito
tsit2.4
atS by
fo 2041
uaeru(age-specific
B lartneC ehFOREWARD
t rates
yb dewere
cudorp
erewdown
snoitcin
ejoline
rp nwith
oitaluthe
popTFR
tsaldecline).
ehT
Projected TFR declines in sub-national areas were
also assumed linear. The relative ordering of subtaht detaicerppa eb dluohs tI .ylevitcepser 4002 dna 4991 ni desaeler erew dna atad susnec 1002
national areas was preserved as fertility declined (Table i), although differentials among the subn important eprerequisite
important
prere
ht fo ruoivahefor
b erany
utuf eobjective
ht ot gnitaand
ler snrealistic
oitpmusInformation
sa fo sisab ehabout
t no edafuture
m era spopulation
noitcejorp nis
oitaan
lupo
p
national areas
were
compressed
as they
approached
a lower
specified
asymptote.
provide information
population,
informatio
si sihT .eon
gnahthe
c nototal
italupo
p fo stnenopage
moc and
eht psex
u ekdevelopment
am hcihw ,noitplan.
argim Population
dna ytilatromprojections
,ytilitref fo sprovide
level
dr
untry. Such information
ehTiv.
.sleveSex
l laisnRatio
oessential
iger datnaBirth
lafor
noitathe
n htformulation
ob ta detcurtsof
nostructure
c neeb evaof
h sthe
noitcfuture
ejorp npopulation
oitalupop tahof
t eamicountry.
t 3 eht Such informa
l as monitoring
tahtand
selbaevaluating
t noitcejorpthe
lanoimplementation
itiddA .1402 ot )raeof
y eall
sanational
b( 1102 mdevelopment
orf ,si taht ,sraeprogrammes,
y ytriht si doireas
p dwell
etcejoasrpmonitoring an
In most societies throughout the world the sex ratio at birth ranges from 103 to 106 males births
and regional levels.
.etisbew ASN eht no sa llew sa stseuqerdevelopment
nopu elbaliavaplans
edamand
eb lprograms
liw niereh datednational
ivorp tonand
era regional levels
per 100 female births. However, sex ratios of infants and young children counted in the censuses
consistentlyof
show that females
outnumber
males.
This situation projections
is worth investigating
further to
ced by the Central
eht ,DIBureau
ASU hguorhStatistics
t )ASU( acbased
iremA fon
o se1991
tatS dand
etinThe
U ehlast
t fo population
tnemnrevog eht ezingocewere
r ot eproduced
kil dluow Iby the Central
find out the sex anomalies in Namibia.
994 and 2004gnrespectively.
census
irud troppus laIt
icnshould
anif dna be
lacinappreciated
hcet gnidivorpthat
rof2001
APFNU
dna uadata
eruB sand
usnewere
C acirereleased
mA fo setain
tS 1994
detinUand 2004 resp
sis of assumptions
to
dnaProjections
cihrelating
pargomeassume
D ethe
ht ylfuture
ralucithe
trabehaviour
pactual
,maet sex
ASof
Nratio
ethe
hT population
.at
trobirth
per noisit103,
cprojections
ejorpalthough
noitaluare
posome
p made
eht areas
fo on
noithe
tcusub-Saharan
dbasis
orp ehof
t assumptions
that
of
Data
hich make up ethe
population
levels
and
htAfrica
ocomponents
t dehave
tacidratios
ed of
snoas
italow
nimras
et102
ed change.
e(U.S.
lbatnCensus
uoThis
cnu is
eBureau,
ht rof of
,International
Mfertility,
ANU sa mortality
llew
sa Base).
,n
oisivmigration,
id scitsitatwhich
S latiVmake up the c
rd
e been constructed
ot redrat
o nboth
i ecitnational
carp otni and
denruregional
t eb lliw levels.
troper sThe
iht the
ni sg3nidtime
nif ehthat
t tahpopulation
t epoh I .troprojections
per siht fo nohave
itcudbeen
orp constructed
v. Net Migration
2011 (base year) to 2041. Additional projection
ispthirty
.ylevitcutables
dorp dethat
sserprojected
dda era seuperiod
ssi tnem
olevedyears,
lanoitathat
n ruois,tafrom
ht eru2011
sne (base year) t
le upon requestsAt
asnational
well as on
the
NSA
website.
provided
be made
upon
level
net
migration
by age and sexare
wasnot
assumed
to herein
be zerowill
in 2011
and available
throughout
therequests as
projection period. This does not imply that there were no migration flows at all – clearly, there were
of the United States
of entering
Americaand
(USA)
through
USAID, The
theI assumption
would like to
recognize
the government
of the
United State
people
leaving
the country.
of zero
net migration
implies that
these
UNFPA for providing
technical
financial
support
during
Statesorofoutflow
America
Bureau
and UNFPA
two flows
canceland
each
other out.
Evidence
forUnited
a net inflow
ofCensus
migration
in recent
years isfor providi
ambiguous.
Moreover,
migration
is
potentially
far
more
unstable
than
fertility
or
mortality
and
can The NSA t
n report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic andthe production of the population projection report.
quickly reverse
direction, given
economic
, for the uncountable
determinations
dedicated
to or
thesocial
Vital upheavals.
Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncount
ndings in this report will be turned into practice in order toproduction of this report. I hope that the findings in this repor
However, at sub-national level it is implausible to assume that net migration is zero. Net migration
RELTcohorts
YETissues
S NHwho
OJare
.RD
are addressed productively.
ensure
that
national the
development
addressed prod
by age and sex in each sub-national area was
derived
byour
comparing
same
were
L
A
R
E
N
E
G
–
N
A
I
C
I
T
S
I
T
A
T
S
counted at different ages in both 2001 and 2011. Cohorts in sub-national areas in 2001 were then
YCNEGA SCITSITATS AIBIMAN
subjected to the survival probabilities estimated for the population as a whole from 2001-2011
to estimate an expected sub-national count in 2011 at each age and sex group. Any discrepancy
between the expected counts and the actual counts in the 2011 census is attributed to net migration
(those under age 10 in 2011 had not been born in 2011, so net migration under age 10 was set to
zero). The projections use these resulting estimates of annual net migration by age and sex, which
are assumed to remain constant from 2011 to 2041.
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
Net migration estimates varied widely at sub-national
level. For instance, annual net migration from
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
rural to urban areas was estimated to be almost
20 thousand
per year
(Tables 2.1 and 2.3).
NAMIBIA
STATISTICS
AGENCY
vi.
i
1 to 2041
50
Consistency Control
Cohort component projections were developed separately for national, urban/rural and regions.
Since the sum of sub-national projections was slightly different than for the national as a whole,
the latter was used as a control. The sub-national
that
1402projections
ot 1102 snoitcwere
ejorP adjusted
noitalupoPslightly
susneC 1to
102ensure
aibimaN
i the projected sum of the parts (the base population by age and sex as well as future components
of demographic change) matched that for the national as a whole.
Namibia 2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
Foreword
Appendices: High Variant
APPENDIX II: NATIONAL HIGH VARIANT
FOREWARD
Table A1 Namibia Projected Population by Sex, Growth Rate and Components of Growth, 2011-2041
Exponential
Net
about futureMale
populationFemale
is an important
prerequisite
any objective
YearInformationTotal
Sex Ratio forBirths
Deaths and realistic
Growth Rate
Migration
development plan. Population projections provide information on the total population, age and sex
2011
2 116 077
1 026 911
1 089 166
–
0.94
65 900
27 205
0
of555
the future
population
of
a country.
Such1.848
information
the704
formulation0 of
2012structure
2 155
1 046
492
1 109
063
0.94is essential
66 964 for 26
2013national
2 196
547
1 066
774
1 as
129well
773 as monitoring
1.884 and 0.94
67 988
26 265
development
programmes,
evaluating
the implementation
of0 all
2014
2 238 938
1 087 706
1 151 232
1.912
0.94
68 951
25 892
0
Foreword
plans and
programs
at national
levels. 0.95
2015development
2 282 591
1 109
224
1 173 367and regional
1.931
69 826
25 580
0
2016
2 327 350
1 131 252
1 196 098
1.942
0.95
70 597
25 325
0
2017The last
2 373
062
1 153 715 were1 219
347
1.945
0.95 of71
269
25 116 on 1991 and
0
population
projections
produced
by
the
Central
Bureau
Statistics
based
FOREWARD
2018
2 419 587
1 176 545
1 243 042
1.942
0.95
71 849
24 952
0
data and
were
in 113
1994 and 2004
It72should
be
that
20192001 census
2 466 792
1 199
679released
1 267
1.932respectively.
0.95
336
24 appreciated
823
0
2020
2 514about
555 future
1 223
059
291
1.918prerequisite
0.95
72the
733
24 behaviour
721
0the
Information
is 496
an important
any
objective
andof realistic
population
projections
arepopulation
made on1 the
basis
of assumptions
relating
tofor
future
2021
2 562 779
1 246 639
1 316 140
1.900
0.95
73 053
24 616
0
development
plan.
Population
provide
information
on the73of
total
population,
ageThis
and
levels of
fertility,
andprojections
migration,
which
make
up the components
population
2022
2 611
390 mortality
1 270 384
1 341 006
1.879
0.95
320
24 534change.
0 is sex
rd
2023
660the
322
1 population
294 265
057 been Such
1.856
73 557 andfor
24
479
0
structure
future
of1 366
a have
country.
information
essential
the formulation
of
the 3 2of
time
that
population
projections
constructed
at0.95
bothisnational
regional
levels. The
2024
2 709 531
1 318 262
1 391 269
1.833
0.95
73 787
24 447
0
national
development
as416
well
as monitoring
evaluating
implementation
projected
period
from
(base
year) and
to 0.95
2041.
Additional
2025
2 758
993 is thirty
1programmes,
342years,
365 that 1is,
6282011
1.809
74 021 theprojection
24 438 tables that
0 of all
2026
808plans
699 herein
366
1available
442 130and
1.786levels.
0.95as on74
252
24 425
0
development
and1programs
at national
regional
are not2 provided
will569
be made
upon
requests
as well
the
NSA website.
2027
2 858 661
1 390 880
1 467 781
1.763
0.95
74 532
24 435
0
2028
2 908 907 projections
1 415 314 were1produced
493 593
0.95
74
24 468
0 and
TheI last
population
byUnited
the1.742
Central
Bureau
of 863
Statistics
basedUSAID,
on 1991
would
like
to
recognize
the
government
of
the
States
of
America
(USA)
through
the
2029
2 959 467
1 439 887
1 519 580
1.723
0.95
75 249
24 525
0
2001
census
and 1were
released
inand
1994
andfor
2004
respectively.
should
appreciated
United
of America
Bureau
UNFPA
providing
technical
financial
support
during
2030
3States
010data
364
464Census
613
1 545
751
1.705
0.95
75Itand
669
24be
597
0 that
2031
3
061
606
1
489
498
1
572
108
1.688
0.95
76
070
24
660
0 of the
population
projections
made on
the basisreport.
of assumptions
relating
to the the
future
behaviourand
the production
of theare
population
projection
The NSA team,
particularly
Demographic
2032
3 113 184
1 514 539
1 598 645
1.671
0.95
76 487
24 740
0
levels
of Statistics
fertility,
migration,
which
up the components
of population
This is
Vital
division,
as731well
as1 UNAM,
formake
the 1.653
uncountable
to 0the
2033
3 165 085mortality
1 539and
625 354
0.95 determinations
76 897
24dedicated
842 change.
rd
2034
3
217
282
1
565
064
1
652
218
1.636
0.95
77
305
24
966
0
the production
3 time that
population
have
beeninconstructed
at both
national
regional
levels.
of this
report. Iprojections
hope that the
findings
this report will
be turned
intoand
practice
in order
to The
2035
3 269 750
1 590 527
1 679 223
1.618
0.95
77 709
25 112
0
projected
thirty
years,
from
2011
(base
year)
to0.95
2041. Additional
projection
tables
ensure3period
that
ourisnational
development
issues
addressed
productively.
2036
322 477
1 616
115 that is,
1 706
362are
1.600
78 106
25
249
0 that
2037
3
375
444
1
641
818
1
733
626
1.582
0.95
78
487
25
411
0
are not provided herein will be made available upon requests as well as on the NSA website.
2038
3 428 606
1 667 615
1 760 991
1.563
0.95
78 841
25 594
0
2039
3 481 915
1 693 482
1 788 433
1.543
0.95
79 170
25 798
0
I would like
to327
recognize
the
of the United
of America
USAID,
the
2040
3 535
1 719
397government
1 815 930
1.522States0.95
79 474 (USA)
26 through
021
0
2041
3
588
815
1
745
345
1
843
470
1.502
0.95
79
758
26
234
0
United States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providing technical and financial support during
Note: “ –” Means Not Applicable
the production of the population projection report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic and
Vital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to the
production of this report. I hope that the findings in this report will be turned into practice in order to
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
51
i
i
droweroF
Appendices: High Variant
Table A2 Namibia Projected Population by Sex and Five-Year Age Group - 2014,
DRAWEROF
2015, 2016, 2021, 2026
Age
2014
2015
2016
2021
2026
Total citsilae
2r238
779
dn938
a evitce2jb282
o y591
na rof 2e327
tisiu350
qererp 2tn562
atro
pmi na2 808
si n699
oitalupop erutuf tuoba noitamrofnI
0-4
314 049
319 376
324 886
344 344
354 515
xes dna263
eg263
a ,noitalu274
pop399
latot eht284
no647
noitamro319
fni 871
edivorp sn339
oitc999
ejorp noitalupoP .nalp tnempoleved
5-9
10 - 14
fo noita239
lum024
rof eht ro238
f la163
itnesse si239
no624
itamrofni 282
hcu563
S .yrtnuoc317
a f893
o noitalupop erutuf eht fo erutcurts
15 - 19
243 204
243 480
242 818
237 559
280 482
lla fo n228
oita319
tnemelpm231
i eh469
t gnitaula234
ve 098
dna gniro239
tino181
m sa llew234sa472
,semmargorp tnempoleved lanoitan
20 - 24
Foreword
25 - 29
196 213
202 828
208 799
.slevel lan228
oig230
er dna lan233
oita948
n ta smargorp dna snalp tnempoleved
30 - 34
159 245
163 688
168 850
200 656
220 471
35 - 39
dna 199133
1 n988
o desab s136
citsi983
tatS fo ua140
eru136
B lartneC 160
eht352
yb decud191
orp 795
erew snoitcejorp noitalupop tsal ehT
40 - 44
108 850
112 823
116 500
132FOREWARD
081
152 191
taht deta86ice
rppa eb d88
luo
hs tI .ylev90
itc798
epser 400108
2 d983
na 4991 124
ni d358
esaeler erew dna atad susnec 1002
45 - 49
084
192
50
54
69
282
71
898
74
257
84
460
101
959
n important eprerequisite
important
prere
ht fo ruoivahefor
b erany
utuf eobjective
ht ot gnitaand
ler snrealistic
oitpmusInformation
sa fo sisab ehabout
t no edafuture
m era spopulation
noitcejorp nis
oitaan
lupo
p
55 - 59
51 966
53 919
56 075
68 275
78 076
provide information
on
the
total
population,
age
and
sex
development
plan.
Population
projections
provide
informatio
s
i
s
i
h
T
.
e
g
n
a
h
c
n
o
i
t
a
l
u
p
o
p
f
o
s
t
n
e
n
o
p
m
o
c
e
h
t
p
u
e
k
a
m
h
c
i
h
w
,
n
o
i
t
a
r
g
i
m
d
n
a
y
t
i
l
a
t
r
o
m
,
y
t
i
l
i
t
r
e
f
f
o
s
l
e
v
e
l
60 - 64
41 488
41 878
42 602
50 451
61 757
65 information
- 69
untry. Such
for
ehT .slev33
el l734
aisnoessential
iger dn34
a la576
noitathe
n htformulation
o35
b t196
a detcurtsof
n37
ostructure
c165
neeb evaof
h44sthe
n364
oitcfuture
ejorp npopulation
oitalupop tahof
t eamicountry.
t dr3 eht Such informa
70 - 74
24 391
24 717
25 232
28 844
30 742
l as monitoring
tahtand
selb17
aevaluating
t 037
noitcejorpthe
lan148
oimplementation
itiddA .1417
02266
ot )raeof
y eall
s18
anational
b384
( 1102 mdevelopment
or21
f ,s189
i taht ,sraeprogrammes,
y ytriht si doireas
p dwell
etcejoasrpmonitoring an
75 - 79
17
80+
28
801
27
054
25
566
21
380
20
488
and regional levels.
.etisbew ASN eht no sa llew sa stseuqerdevelopment
nopu elbaliavaplans
edamand
eb lprograms
liw niereh datednational
ivorp tonand
era regional levels
Male
1 087 706
1 109 224
1 131 252
1 246 639
1 366 569
50 - 54
31 123
32 428
33 595
38 512
46 682
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80+
123 209
116 245
100 008
81 685
68 726
56 725
45 913
38 159
29 416
23 197
19 163
14 408
10 102
18 886
123 096
117 979
103 281
84 146
70 321
58 800
46 998
39 470
30 677
23 634
19 554
14 687
10 178
17 768
122 489
119 346
106 323
86 872
72 054
60 720
48 351
40 662
31 965
24 272
19 900
15 000
10 298
16 802
ced by the
A158
SU 757
hguof
orhStatistics
t )161
ASU497
( acbased
iremA164
fon
o278
se1991
tatS dand
e174
tinThe
U089
ehlast
t fo population
tn
em206
nrevogprojections
eht ezingocewere
r ot eproduced
kil dluow Iby the Central
0 - Central
4 eht ,DIBureau
179
5
9
132
712
138
312
143
496
161
398
171
518
994 and 2004gnrespectively.
census
irud troppus laIt
icnshould
anif dna be
lacinappreciated
hcet gnidivorpthat
rof2001
APFNU
dna uadata
eruB sand
usnewere
C acirereleased
mA fo setain
tS 1994
detinUand 2004 resp
10 - 14
119 477
119 351
120 339
142 263
160 195
sis of assumptions
dna cihrelating
parg995
ometo
D ethe
h120
t ylfuture
r384
alucitrabehaviour
p 120
,ma329
et ASof
N ethe
h119
T population
.t179
roper noi141
tcprojections
ejo
rp noitaluare
pop made
eht fo on
noithe
tcudbasis
orp ehof
t assumptions
15 - 19
119
056
20
24
112
074
113
490
114
752
118
196
117
307
hich make up ethe
and
ht ocomponents
t detacided of
snopopulation
itanimreted change.
elbatnuoThis
cnu is
elevels
ht rof of
,Mfertility,
ANU sa mortality
llew sa ,n
oisivmigration,
id scitsitatwhich
S latiVmake up the c
25 - 29
96 205
99 547
102 476
111 400 rd
115 133
e been constructed
and
levels.
ot redrat
o 77
nboth
i 560
ecitnational
carp ot79
ni 542
denruregional
t eb l81
liw978
troper sThe
ih97
t the
n868
i sg3nidtime
nif 106
ehthat
t 964
tahpopulation
t epoh I .troprojections
per siht fo nohave
itcudbeen
orp constructed
30 - 34
35
39
65
262
66
662
68
082
76
997
92
596
2011 (base year) to 2041. Additional projection
ispthirty
.ylevitcutables
dorp dethat
sserprojected
dda era seuperiod
ssi tnem
olevedyears,
lanoitathat
n ruois,tafrom
ht eru2011
sne (base year) t
40 - 44
52 125
54 023
55 780
63 139
71 998
le upon requests
as on the41
NSA
45 - 49 as well
40 171
194website.
42 447
51are
064not provided
58 280 herein will be made available upon requests as
55 - 59States of
22 550
23 242 through
24 110
29I 872
495recognize the government of the United State
of the United
America (USA)
USAID, the
would like34to
60 - 64
18 291
18 244
18 330
20 783
25 946
UNFPA for
technical
and
support
States
of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providi
65 -providing
69
14
571
15 financial
022
15 296 during
15United
399
17 597
70
74
9
983
10
030
10
232
12
069
12
249
n report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic andthe production of the population projection report. The NSA t
75 - 79
6 935
6 970
6 968
7 065
8 414
, for the80+
uncountable
determinations
9 915
9 286 dedicated
8 764 to the7Vital
346 Statistics
6 933division, as well as UNAM, for the uncount
ndings in this report will be turned into practice in order toproduction of this report. I hope that the findings in this repor
Female
1 151 232
1 173 367
1 196 098
1 316 140
1 442 130
RELTYETissues
S NHOJare
.RDaddressed prod
are addressed
that
our
0 - 4 productively.
155 292
157 879
160 608
170ensure
255
175
309national development
LARENEG–NAICITSITATS
5-9
130 551
136 087
141 151
158 473
168 481
10 - 14
119 547
118 812
119 285
140 300
157 698
YCNEGA SCITSITATS AIBIMAN
i
1 to 2041
118 380
139 426
120 985
117 165
116 830
118 815
102 788
113 507
83 355
99 199
68 942
80 193
57 919
66 078
45 948
55 277
38DR.
403JOHN STEYTLER
43 581
29STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
668
35 811
21 766
26 767
STATISTICS
AGENCY
16NAMIBIA
775
18 493
11 319
12 775
14 034
13 555
1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
i
52
Namibia 2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
Foreword
Appendices: Low Variant
APPENDIX III: NATIONAL LOW VARIANT
TableFOREWARD
A3 Namibia Projected Population by Sex, Growth Rate and Components of Growth, 2011-2041
Exponential
Net
Year
Total
Male
Female
Sex Ratio
Births
Deaths
Growth
Rate
Migration
Information about future population is an
important
prerequisite for any objective
and realistic
2011development
2 116 077
026 911
1 089 166 provide information
–
0.94 on 65
205
plan. 1Population
projections
the900total 27
population,
age0 and sex
2012
2 155 326
1 046 376
1 108 950
1.838
0.94
66 498
26 694
0
of 628
the future
of320
a country.1.853
Such information
is 033
essential
of
2013structure
2 195
1 066population
308
1 129
0.94
67
26for
232the formulation
0
2014national
2 236
853
1
086
650
1
150
203
1.860
0.94
67
484
25
835
0
development programmes, as well as monitoring and evaluating the implementation of all
2015
2 278 843
1 107 327
1 171 516
1.860
0.95
67 827
25 494
0
plans and
national
and 1.851
regional levels.
2016development
2 321 427
1 128programs
255
1 at
193
172
0.95
68 046
25 211
0 Foreword
2017
2 364 431
1 149 349
1 215 082
1.836
0.95
68 148
24 975
0
2018The last
2 407
697
1
170
532
1
237
165
1.813
0.95
68
142
24
782
0
population projections were produced by the Central Bureau of Statistics based on 1991
and
FOREWARD
2019
2 451 079
1 191 734
1 259 345
1.786
0.95
68 029
24 625
0
data and
in 1994 and
respectively.
It should
be appreciated
that
20202001 census
2 494 439
1 212were
889 released
1 281 550
1.7542004 0.95
67 812
24 495
0
2021
2
537
669
1
233
946
1
303
723
1.718
0.95
67
505
24
362
0
Information
future
is basis
an important
prerequisite
objective
andof realistic
populationabout
projections
arepopulation
made on the
of assumptions
relating tofortheany
future
behaviour
the
2022
2 580 679
1 254 862
1 325 817
1.681
0.95
67 133
24 255
0
development
plan.
Population
projections
provide
information
on
the
total
population,
age
and
levels
of
fertility,
mortality
and
migration,
which
make
up
the
components
of
population
change.
This
is sex
2023
2 623 388
1 275 600
1 347 788
1.641
0.95
66 715
24 174
0
rd
2024
665
736
1 296
133projections
1 369
1.601
0.95 at both
66is
274
24and
119for
0
structure
the
future
population
of 603
a have
country.
Such
information
essential
the formulation
the 3 2of
time
that
population
been
constructed
national
regional
levels.
The of
2025
2 707 680
1 316 441
1 391 239
1.561
0.95
65 819
24 085
0
national
development
programmes,
as683
well 2011
as 1.522
monitoring
evaluating
the
implementation
of all
projected
period
years, that
from
(base year)
to 2041.
Additional
projection
tables
that
2026
2 749
194 is thirty
1 336
511
1 412is,
0.95and
65 343
24
048
0
2027
790plans
265 herein
1 356
336be made
1at433
929
1.483
0.95
24 035
development
and
programs
national
and
regional
levels.
are not2provided
will
available
upon
requests
as well 64
as 884
on the NSA
website. 0
2028
2 830 885
1 375 913
1 454 972
1.445
0.95
64 438
24 047
0
2029
2 871 045
1 395 240
1 475 805
1.409
0.95
64 007
24 080
0
TheI last
population
projections
were
by
the Central
basedUSAID,
would
like 729
to recognize
the government
United
States
of America
(USA)
the and
2030
2 910
1 414 310
1 496produced
419 of the
1.373
0.95 Bureau
63 571of Statistics
24 130through
0on 1991
2031
2States
949data
906
1 433
110
1Bureau
516 796
1.337
0.94
63 083 Itand
24financial
170 be support
0 during that
2001
census
and
were
released
inand
1994
and
2004
respectively.
should
appreciated
United
of America
Census
UNFPA
for
providing
technical
2032
2 988 530
1 451 618
1 536 912
1.301
0.94
62 565
24 229
0
population
projections
are
made 1on
the
of1.264
assumptions
relating
future
behaviour
of the
the production
population
projection
The NSA
the
Demographic
and
2033
3 026
540 of the
1 469
806
556
734 basisreport.
0.94 team,
61particularly
993 to the
24 309
0
levels
of Statistics
fertility,
and
migration,
up 0.94
the components
change.
This is
2034
3 063 861mortality
1 487 638
1 576
223 which
1.226
61
368 of24population
409 dedicated
0 to the
Vital
division,
as well
as UNAM,
formake
the uncountable
determinations
rd
2035
3
100
421
1
505
081
1
595
340
1.186
0.94
60
691
24
530
0
the production
3 time that
population
have
beeninconstructed
at both
national
regional
levels.
of this
report.
Iprojections
hope1that
the
findings
this report
will
be turned
intoand
practice
in0order
to The
2036
3 136 159
1 522 104
614 055
1.146
0.94
59 959
24 644
projected
thirty
is,335
from are
2011
(base year)
to 2041.
2037
171 our
009isnational
1 538years,
674 that
1 632
1.105
0.94
59 166Additional
24 781 projection
0 tables that
ensure 3period
that
development
issues
addressed
productively.
2038
3
204
884
1
554
748
1
650
136
1.063
0.94
58
305
24
939
are not provided herein will be made available upon requests as well as on the NSA website.0
2039
3 237 696
1 570 282
1 667 414
1.019
0.94
57 375
25 117
0
2040
3 269 359
1 585 233
1 684 126
0.973
0.94
56 382
25 314
0
I would like
to805
recognize
United 0.94
States of55America
2041
3 299
1 599 the
565 government
1 700 240 of the0.927
328
25(USA)
503 through
0 USAID, the
Note:
“ –” States
Means Not
United
of Applicable
America
Census Bureau and UNFPA for providing technical and financial support during
the production of the population projection report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic and
Vital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to the
production of this report. I hope that the findings in this report will be turned into practice in order to
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
53
i
i
droweroF
Appendices: Low Variant
Table A4 Namibia Projected Population by Sex and Five-Year Age Group - 2014,
DRAWEROF
2015, 2016, 2021, 2026
Age
2014
2015
2016
2021
2026
Total citsilaer2 236
dna853
evitcej2bo278yn843
a rof e2ti321
siuq427
ererp t2na537
tro669
pmi na 2s749
i no194
italupop erutuf tuoba noitamrofnI
0-4
311 967
315 631
318 964
325 042
319 821
xes dna 263
ega264
,noitalup274
op l400
atot eht 284
no n645
oitamrofn
i edivorp sn320
oitce961
jorp noitalupoP .nalp tnempoleved
5-9
314 063
10 - 14
fo noital239
umr022
of eht rof238
lai160
tnesse si 239
noit627
amrofni h282
cuS562
.yrtnuoc 312
a fo122
noitalupop erutuf eht fo erutcurts
15 - 19
243 202
243 482
242 817
237 559
280 482
lla fo no228
itatn
emelpmi231
eht468
gnitaulav234
e d100
na gnirot239
inom
sa llew234
sa 472
,semmargorp tnempoleved lanoitan
20 - 24
321
182
Foreword
25 - 29
196 214
202 826
208 .797
228
slevel lano
ige230
r dna lano233
itan947
ta smargorp dna snalp tnempoleved
30 - 34
159 242
163 691
168 851
200 657
220 471
35 - 39
dna 1991133
no990
desab sc136
itsit983
atS fo uae140
ruB134
lartneC e160
hFOREWARD
t y351
b decudo191
rp e797
rew snoitcejorp noitalupop tsal ehT
40 - 44
108 851
112 821
116 499
132
079
152 191
taht detai86
ce083
rppa eb dl88
uo194
hs tI .ylevi90
tce802
pser 4002108
dn982
a 4991 n124
i de355
saeler erew dna atad susnec 1002
45 - 49
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n important eprerequisite
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55 - 59
51 966
53 920
56 078
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provide information
on
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s
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i
h
T
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l as monitoring
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75 - 79
17
80+
28
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25
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21
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20
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and regional levels.
.etisbew ASN eht no sa llew sa stseuqerdevelopment
nopu elbaliavaplans
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Male
1 086 650
1 107 327
1 128 255
1 233 946
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50 - 54
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46 681
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80+
123 208
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100 008
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0 - Central
4 eht ,DIBureau
5
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994 and 2004gnrespectively.
census
irud troppus laIt
icnshould
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lacinappreciated
hcet gnidivorpthat
rof2001
APFNU
dna uadata
eruB sand
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mA fo setain
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detinUand 2004 resp
10 - 14
119 477
119 350
120 340
142 262
157 287
sis of assumptions
population
projections
dna cihrelating
p119
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p ,m
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15 - 19
120
20
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112
074
113
490
114
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118
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117
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hich make up ethe
and
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t detacided of
snopopulation
itanimreted change.
elbatnuoThis
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ht rof of
,Mfertility,
ANU sa mortality
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oisivmigration,
id scitsitatwhich
S latiVmake up the c
25 - 29
96 206
99 546
102 474
111 402rd
115 133
the
e been constructed
ot redrat
o nboth
i e559
citnational
carp otn79
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enruregional
t eb lli81
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troper sThe
iht 97
ni 866
sg3nidtime
nif e106
hthat
t t964
ahpopulation
t epoh I .troprojections
per siht fo nohave
itcudbeen
orp constructed
30 - 34
77
979
35
39
65
263
66
663
68
080
76
996
92
596
2011 (base year) to 2041. Additional projection
ispthirty
.ylevitcutables
dorp dethat
sserprojected
dda era seuperiod
ssi tnem
olevedyears,
lanoitathat
n ruois,tafrom
ht eru2011
sne (base year) t
40 - 44
52 125
54 021
55 781
63 138
71 998
le upon requests
website.42 450
are
not provided
45 - 49 as well
40 as
170on the NSA
41 196
51
064
58 278herein will be made available upon requests as
55 - 59States of22America
549
23 243through24USAID,
111
870
of the United
(USA)
the29
I would
like 34
to501
recognize the government of the United State
60 - 64
18 291
18 243
18 327
20 784
25 942
UNFPA for
technical
and15financial
support
United
America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providi
65 -providing
69
14 572
022
15 298 during15
397 States
17of
597
70
74
9
982
10
031
10
233
12
071
12
248
n report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic andthe production of the population projection report. The NSA t
75 - 79
6 934
6 970
6 967
7 065
8 417
, for the80+
uncountable9 915
determinations
division, as well as UNAM, for the uncount
9 284 dedicated
8 763 to theVital
7 345 Statistics
6 930
ndings in this report will be turned into practice in order toproduction of this report. I hope that the findings in this repor
Female
1 150 203
1 171 516
1 193 172
1 303 723
1 412 683
RELTYETissues
S NHOJare
.RDaddressed prod
are addressed
ensure
our156
national development
0 - 4 productively.
154 265
156 029
157 682
160
714 that158
LARENEG–NAICITSITATS
5-9
130 551
136 088
141 150
155 597
159 050
10 - 14
119 545
118 810
119 287
140 300
154 835
YCNEGA SCITSITATS AIBIMAN
i
1 to 2041
118 380
139 428
120 985
117 163
116 828
118 814
102 791
113 507
83 355
99 201
68 941
80 193
57 918
66 077
45 948
55 275
38
403
43 582
DR.
JOHN STEYTLER
29
671
35 811
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
21 765
26 771
NAMIBIA
STATISTICS
AGENCY
16
773
18 491
11 321
12 776
14 033
13 553
1402 ot 1102 snoitcejorP noitalupoP susneC 1102 aibimaN
i
54
Namibia 2011
i
Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
Foreword
Appendices: Medium Variant
APPENDIX IV: NATIONAL AND SUB-NATIONALS MEDIUM VARIANT
FOREWARD
Table A5 Projected Population and Dependency Ratio by Age Group and Area, 2015
Age Information about future
Namibiapopulation
Urban
Rural
Erongo
Hardap
Khomas
is an important
prerequisite
for anyKaras
objective Kavango
and realistic
0-14
830 064
324 521
505 543
49 490
28 293
25 771
101 675 113 903
development plan. 1Population
projections
information
population,
age505
and sex
15-64
347 159
716 846 provide
630 313
120 466 on53the
296total 55
255
122
278 212
65+ structure of the future
103population
493
27 258
76 Such
235 information
5 897
4is040
051 the formulation
10 676
of
a country.
essential3 for
of8 076
All ages
2 280 716
1 068 625 1 212 091 175 853
85 629
84 077
234 856 400 191
national development programmes, as well as monitoring and evaluating the implementation of all
Foreword
development plans and programs at national and regional levels.
Percent
Percent
15
36.4
30.4
28.1Bureau
33.0
30.7based on 1991
43.3 and 28.5
Theunder
last population
projections
were produced
by41.7
the Central
of Statistics
FOREWARD
Percent
15-64
59.1
67.1
52.0
68.5
62.2
65.7
52.2
69.5
2001
in 1994 and
Percent
65+census data and were
4.5 released 2.6
6.32004 respectively.
3.4
4.7It should3.6be appreciated
4.5 that 2.0
Total
%
100
100
100relating
100to
100objective
100of realistic
Information
about
future
population
is basis
an important
prerequisite
fortheany
and
population
projections
are
made on the
of 100
assumptions
future
behaviour
the 100
Dependency Ratios
development
plan.
Population
provide
information
on the of
total
population,
ageThis
and
levels
of fertility,
andprojections
migration, which
make
up the components
population
change.
is sex
Youth
Dependency
(0- mortality
rd
14/15-64)
61.6 projections
41.1at both
53.1
46.6for
83.0 The 40.9
structure
the
future
population
of 45.3
a have
country.
Such
information
isnational
essential
the formulation
of
the 3 of
time
that
population
been80.2
constructed
and
regional
levels.
Older Age (65/15-64)
7.7
3.8
12.1
4.9
7.6
5.5
8.7
2.9
national
development
programmes,
as49.1
well 2011
as monitoring
and
evaluating
the
implementation
of43.8
all
projected
period is thirty
years, that is,
from
(base year)
to 2041.
Additional
projection
tables
Total
Dependency
69.3
92.3
46.0
60.7
52.2
91.7 that
development
plans herein
and programs
at national
regional
levels.
are not provided
will be made
availableand
upon
requests
as well as on the NSA website.
Age
Kunene
Ohangwena
Omaheke Omusati
Oshana Oshikoto Otjozondjupa Zambezi
TheI last
population
projections
were produced
byUnited
the Central
of Statistics
basedUSAID,
on 1991
and
would
like to recognize
the government
of the
States Bureau
of63
America
(USA)
through
the
0-14
40 408
109 901
29 178
98 083
460
75 009
57 065
37 828
2001
census
data
and 51
were
released
inand
1994
and
2004
should
appreciated
United
States
of America
Census
Bureau
UNFPA
providing
financial
15-64
245
127 713
41
683for
131 respectively.
336 technical
113747 Itand
106
189 be support
89 996during
55that
516
65+
3
957
15
734
3
179
19
071
9
427
11
271
5
282
3
832
population
projections
made on
the basisreport.
of assumptions
relating
to the the
future
behaviourand
of the
the production
of theare
population
projection
The NSA team,
particularly
Demographic
All ages
95 610
253 348
74 040 248 490 186634
192 469
152 343
97 176
levels
of Statistics
fertility, mortality
migration,
which
up the components
of population
change.
This is
Vital
division, and
as well
as UNAM,
formake
the uncountable
determinations
dedicated
to the
rd
the production
3 time that
population
have
beeninconstructed
at both
national
regional
levels.
of this
report. Iprojections
hope that the
findings
this report will
be turned
intoand
practice
in order
to The
Percent
projected
period
thirty years,
that is,issues
from are
2011
(base year)
tables that
ensure
that
development
addressed
productively.
Percent
under
15 ourisnational
42.3
43.4
39.4
39.5to 2041.
34.0Additional
39.0 projection
37.5
38.9
Percent
15-64
53.6
50.4
56.3
52.9
60.9
55.2
59.1
57.1
are not provided herein will be made available upon requests as well as on the NSA website.
Percent 65+
4.1
6.2
4.3
7.7
5.1
5.9
3.5
3.9
Total %
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
I would like
to recognize the government of the United States of America (USA) through USAID, the
Dependency
Ratios
Youth
Dependency
United States of(0America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providing technical and financial support during
14/15-64)
78.9
86.1
70.0 The NSA
74.7 team,55.8
70.6 the Demographic
63.4
68.1
the production of the population
projection
report.
particularly
and
Older Age (65/15-64)
7.7
12.3
7.6
14.5
8.3
10.6
5.9
6.9
VitalDependency
Statistics division, as
for 77.6
the uncountable
determinations
dedicated
the
Total
86.6well as UNAM,
98.4
89.2
64.1
81.3
69.3 to 75.0
production of this report. I hope that the findings in this report will be turned into practice in order to
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
55
i
i
droweroF
Appendices: Medium Variant
Table A6 Projected Population and Dependency Ratio by Age Group and Area, 2030: Medium Variant
DRAWERKhomas
OF
Age
Namibia
Urban
Rural
Erongo
Hardap
Karas
Kavango
0-14
997 595
547 375
450 220
74 319
33 418
31,797
113 864
192 072
15-64citsilaer dna evitc1e830
jbo 800
yna ro1f 165
etis645
iuqererp665
tn155
atropm190
i na052si no69
ita991
lupop e72,879
rutuf tuoba156
no799
itamro435
fnI 504
65+
132 147
57 787
74 360
11 282
5 603
4,889
10 331
17 779
xes dna ega ,noit2al960
upo542
p latot 1e770
ht n807
o noita1m
rof735
ni ediv275
orp 653
snoitc109012
ejorp noit109
alup565
oP .nalp 280
tnem
polev645
ed 355
All ages
189
994
fo noitalumrof eht rof laitnesse si noitamrofni hcuS .yrtnuoc a fo noitalupop erutuf eht fo erutcurts
lla fo noitatnemelpmi eht gnitaulave dna gnirotinom sa llew sa ,semmargorp tnempoleved lanoitan
Percent
Percent under 15
33.7
30.9.sForeword
level lan37.8
oiger dna l27.0
anoitan ta30.7
smargorp29.0
dna snalp tne40.5
mpoleved 29.8
Percent 15-64
61.8
65.8
55.9
68.9
64.2
66.5
55.8
67.5
Percent 65+
4.5
3.3
6.3
4.1
5.1
4.5
3.7
2.8
dna 1991 no desab sc100.0
itsitatS fo ua100.0
eruB lartneC100.0
ehFOREWARD
t yb de100.0
cudorp er100.0
ew snoitce100.0
jorp noitalup100.0
op tsal ehT100.0
Total %
taht deRatios
taicerppa eb dluohs tI .ylevitcepser 4002 dna 4991 ni desaeler erew dna atad susnec 1002
Dependency
Youth
Dependency
n important eprerequisite
important
prere
ht fo ruoivahefor
b erany
utuf eobjective
ht ot gnitaand
ler snrealistic
oitpmusInformation
sa fo sisab ehabout
t no edafuture
m era spopulation
noitcejorp nis
oitaan
lupo
p
(0-14/15-64)
54.5
47.0
67.7
39.1
47.7
43.6
72.6
44.1
provide information
on
the
total
population,
age
and
sex
development
plan.
Population
projections
provide
informatio
s
i
s
i
h
T
.
e
g
n
a
h
c
n
o
i
t
a
l
u
p
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n
e
n
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h
t
p
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l
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v
e
l
Older Age (65/15-64)
7.2
5.0
11.2
5.9
8.0
6.7
6.6
4.1
Total
79.2
untry. Such
information
of
Such informa
eDependency
hT .slevel laisnoessential
iger dna61.7
lafor
noitathe
n htformulation
o51.9
b ta detcurts78.9
nostructure
c neeb e45.0
vaof
h sthe
noit55.8
cfuture
ejorp npopulation
oit50.3
alupop tahof
t eam
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t dr3 eht 48.2
l as monitoring
tahtand
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t noitcejorpthe
lanoimplementation
itiddA .1402 ot )raeof
y eall
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orf ,si taht ,sraeprogrammes,
y ytriht si doireas
p dwell
etcejoasrpmonitoring an
Age levels.
and regional
.etisKunene
bew ASN ehOhangwena
t no sa llew sOmaheke
a stseuqerdevelopment
nOmusati
opu elbaliaOshana
vaplans
edamand
eOshikoto
b lprograms
liw niereOtjozondjupa
h datednational
ivorp toZambezi
nand
era regional levels
0-14
49 605
117 119
27 302
97,259
74 149
82 362
60 359
43970
15-64
761
159
49
154,593
140009
700
ced by the
Central
on
and
the Central
eht ,DIBureau
ASU hguof
orhStatistics
t 78
)A4S596
U( acbased
irem
A f274
o se1991
tatS d
et152
inThe
U ehlast
t20,458
fo population
tnemn
revogprojections
eh138
t14ez091
ingocewere
r ot110
eproduced
k962
il dluow 74124
Iby
65+
14 463
4 392
11 654
7 629
4980
994 and 2004
should
census
were
gnrespectively.
irud troppus laIt
icn132
anif962
dna be
lacinappreciated
hce856
t gnidivor80
pthat
r846
of2001
APFN272
U
d310
na uadata
e225812
ruB sand
usne235
C a153
cirereleased
mA fo 178
setain
tS 1994
deti123
nUand
All ages
290
950
074 2004 resp
sis of assumptions
dna cihrelating
pargometo
D ethe
ht ylfuture
ralucitrabehaviour
p ,maet ASof
N ethe
hT population
.troper noitcprojections
ejorp noitaluare
pop made
eht fo on
noithe
tcudbasis
orp ehof
t assumptions
hich makePercent
up ethe
and
ht ocomponents
t detacided of
snopopulation
itanimreted change.
elbatnuoThis
cnu is
elevels
ht rof of
,Mfertility,
ANU sa mortality
llew sa ,n
oisivmigration,
id scitsitatwhich
S latiVmake up the c
rd 35.7
Percent
under
15
37.3
40.3
33.8
32.8
35.0
33.7
e been constructed
constructed
ot redrat
o nboth
i ecitnational
carp otni and
denruregional
t eb lliw levels.
troper sThe
iht the
ni sg3nidtime
nif ehthat
t tahpopulation
t epoh I .troprojections
per siht fo nohave
itcudbeen
orp 35.7
Percent 15-64
59.2
54.8
60.8
56.8
62.0
59.0
62.0
60.2
2011 (base
year)
is5.2
(base year) t
.ylevit5.0
cutables
dorp dethat
sse5.4
rprojected
dda era s7.5
euperiod
ssi tnem
pthirty
olevedyears,
la6.0
noitathat
n ruois,tafrom
h4.3
t eru2011
sne 4.0
Percent
65+to 2041. Additional
3.5 projection
Total
%
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
le upon requests as well as on the NSA website.
are not provided herein will be made available upon requests as
Dependency Ratios
Youth Dependency
of the United
States of America (USA)
I would62.9
like to recognize
the
United State
(0-14/15-64)
63.0 through
73.5USAID, the
55.5
53.0
59.4 government
54.4 of the59.3
Older
Age (65/15-64)
9.1
8.9
13.2 of America
8.3
10.2
6.7for providi
UNFPA for
providing
technical and5.8
financial support
during
United States
Census
Bureau 6.9
and UNFPA
Total Dependency
68.8
82.6
64.5
76.1
61.3
69.5
61.3
66.0
n report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic andthe production of the population projection report. The NSA t
, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to theVital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncount
ndings in this report will be turned into practice in order toproduction of this report. I hope that the findings in this repor
RELTYETissues
S NHOJare
.RDaddressed prod
are addressed productively.
ensure that our national development
LARENEG–NAICITSITATS
YCNEGA SCITSITATS AIBIMAN
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
i
1 to 2041
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Namibia 2011
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Foreword
Appendices: Team Members
APPENDIX V: TEAM MEMBERS OF NAMIBIA POPULATION PROJECTIONS REPORT
FOREWARD
NAMEINSTITUTION
Information about future population is an important prerequisite for any objective and realistic
Pauline Enkono
Namibia Statistics Agency
development plan. Population projections provide information on the total population, age and sex
of the future population of a country. Such
information
is essential for the formulation of
Alinastructure
Kandjimbi
Namibia
Statistics Agency
national development programmes, as well as monitoring and evaluating the implementation of all
Liana Koita
Namibia Statistics Agency
Foreword
development plans and programs at national and regional levels.
Eben Kahitu
Namibia Statistics Agency
The last population projections were produced by the Central Bureau of Statistics based on 1991 and
FOREWARD
Dr Daniel
US2004
Census
Bureau, USAIt should be appreciated that
2001 Goodkind
census data and were released in 1994 and
respectively.
Information
about
future
is basis
an important
prerequisite
objective
andof realistic
population
projections
arepopulation
made on the
of assumptions
relating tofortheany
future
behaviour
the
Dr
Ndeyapo
Nickanor
University
of Namibia
development
plan. mortality
Population
provide
information
on the of
total
population,
ageThis
and
levels of fertility,
andprojections
migration, which
make
up the components
population
change.
is sex
rd
structure
the
future
population
of a have
country.
information
essential
the formulation
the 3 of
time
that
population
projections
been Such
constructed
at bothisnational
andfor
regional
levels. The of
national
development
programmes,
as from
well 2011
as monitoring
evaluating
theprojection
implementation
of all
projected
period is thirty
years, that is,
(base year) and
to 2041.
Additional
tables that
development
plans herein
and programs
at national
regional
levels.
are not provided
will be made
availableand
upon
requests
as well as on the NSA website.
TheI last
population
projections
were produced
byUnited
the Central
of Statistics
basedUSAID,
on 1991
would
like to recognize
the government
of the
States Bureau
of America
(USA) through
the and
2001
census
data
and were
released
1994
andfor
2004
respectively.
should
be support
appreciated
United
States
of America
Census
Bureauinand
UNFPA
providing
technicalItand
financial
during that
population
projections
made on
the basisreport.
of assumptions
relating
to the the
future
behaviourand
of the
the production
of theare
population
projection
The NSA team,
particularly
Demographic
levels
of Statistics
fertility, mortality
migration,
which
up the components
of population
change.
This is
Vital
division, and
as well
as UNAM,
formake
the uncountable
determinations
dedicated
to the
rd
the production
3 time that
population
have
beeninconstructed
at both
national
regional
levels.
of this
report. Iprojections
hope that the
findings
this report will
be turned
intoand
practice
in order
to The
projected
thirty years,
that is,issues
from are
2011
(base year)
to 2041. Additional projection tables that
ensure period
that ourisnational
development
addressed
productively.
are not provided herein will be made available upon requests as well as on the NSA website.
I would like to recognize the government of the United States of America (USA) through USAID, the
United States of America Census Bureau and UNFPA for providing technical and financial support during
the production of the population projection report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic and
Vital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to the
production of this report. I hope that the findings in this report will be turned into practice in order to
DR. JOHN
STEYTLER
ensure
that our
national development issues are addressed productively.
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
Namibia 2011 Census Population Projections 2011 to 2041
i
i
57
i
i
droweroF
REFERENCES
REFERENCES
DRAWEROF
1. Central Bureau of Statistics. 2006. Population Projections 2001-2031, National and Regional
citsilaerFigures.
dna evWindhoek.
itcejbo yna National
rof etisiuPlanning
qererp tCommission;
natropmi na si noitalupop erutuf tuoba noitamrofnI
xes dna ega ,noitalupop latot eht no noitamrofni edivorp snoitcejorp noitalupoP .nalp tnempoleved
fo noitalumrof eht rof laitnesse si noitamrofni hcuS .yrtnuoc a fo noitalupop erutuf eht fo erutcurts
lla f2.
o nCentral
oitatnemBureau
elpmi eof
htStatistics.
gnitaulave2003.
dna g2001
nirotiPopulation
nom sa llewand
sa Housing
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gorp tne–mNational
poleved Report
lanoitan–
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er dna lanPlanning
oitan ta sCommission.
margorp dna snalp tnempoleved
dna 1991 no desab scitsitatS fo uaeruB lartneC ehFOREWARD
t yb decudorp erew snoitcejorp noitalupop tsal ehT
3.
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taht detaicerppa eb dluohs tI .ylevitcepser 4002 dReport
na 499(Namibia
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ler erCensus).
ew dna Windhoek,
atad susnecNamibia
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Statistics
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n important eprerequisite
important
prere
ht fo ruoivahefor
b erany
utuf eobjective
ht ot gnitaand
ler snrealistic
oitpmusInformation
sa fo sisab ehabout
t no edafuture
m era spopulation
noitcejorp nis
oitaan
lupo
p
provide information
population,
informatio
si sihT .eon
gnahthe
c nototal
italupo
p fo stnenopage
moc and
eht psex
u ekdevelopment
am hcihw ,noitplan.
argim Population
dna ytilatromprojections
,ytilitref fo sprovide
level
untry. Such information
ehT .slevel laisnoessential
iger dna lafor
noitathe
n htformulation
ob ta detcurtsof
nostructure
c neeb evaof
h sthe
noitcfuture
ejorp npopulation
oitalupop tahof
t eamicountry.
t dr3 eht Such informa
4. Namibia Statistics Agency. 2014b. Mortality Report (Namibia 2011 Census). Windhoek,
l as monitoring
tahtand
selb
aevaluating
t noitceStatistics
jorpthe
lanoimplementation
iAgency;
tiddA .1402 ot )raeof
y eall
sanational
b( 1102 mdevelopment
orf ,si taht ,sraeprogrammes,
y ytriht si doireas
p dwell
etcejoasrpmonitoring an
Namibia
and regional levels.
.etisbew ASN eht no sa llew sa stseuqerdevelopment
nopu elbaliavaplans
edamand
eb lprograms
liw niereh datednational
ivorp tonand
era regional levels
ced by the Central
eht ,DIBureau
ASU hguof
orhStatistics
t )ASU( acbased
iremA fon
o se1991
tatS dand
etinThe
U ehlast
t fo population
tnemnrevogprojections
eht ezingocewere
r ot eproduced
kil dluow Iby the Central
5. Namibia Statistics Agency. 2013. Namibia 2011 Population & Housing Census Main Report.
994 and 2004gnrespectively.
should
census
irud tWindhoek,
roppus laIt
icnNamibia
anif dna be
lStatistics
acinappreciated
hcet gAgency;
nidivorpthat
rof2001
APFNU
dna uadata
eruB sand
usnewere
C acirereleased
mA fo setain
tS 1994
detinUand 2004 resp
sis of assumptions
dna cihrelating
pargometo
D ethe
ht ylfuture
ralucitrabehaviour
p ,maet ASof
N ethe
hT population
.troper noitcprojections
ejorp noitaluare
pop made
eht fo on
noithe
tcudbasis
orp ehof
t assumptions
hich make up ethe
and
ht ocomponents
t detacided of
snopopulation
itanimreted change.
elbatnuoThis
cnu is
elevels
ht rof of
,Mfertility,
ANU sa mortality
llew sa ,n
oisivmigration,
id scitsitatwhich
S latiVmake up the c
rd
e been constructed
and
ot r6.
edrat
oUnited
nboth
i ecitnational
cNations.
arp otni World
denruregional
tPopulation
eb lliw levels.
tropProspects:
er sThe
iht the
ni sg3
nidtime
n2012
if ehthat
tRevision
tahpopulation
t epoh
I .troprojections
per siht fo nohave
itcudbeen
orp constructed
The
http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/
2011 (base year) to unpp/panel_population.htm
2041. Additional projection
ispthirty
.ylevitcaccessed
utables
dorp dethat
ssJune
erprojected
dd12,
a era2014;
seuperiod
ssi tnem
olevedyears,
lanoitathat
n ruois,tafrom
ht eru2011
sne (base year) t
le upon requests as well as on the NSA website.
are not provided herein will be made available upon requests as
of the United States
of America
(USA) through
USAID,
I would like to recognize the government of the United State
7. U.S.
Census Bureau.
International
Datathe
Base.http://www.census.gov/population/
12, 2014;
UNFPA for providinginternational/data/idb/informationGateway.phpaccessed
technical and financial support duringUnited States of June
America
Census Bureau and UNFPA for providi
n report. The NSA team, particularly the Demographic andthe production of the population projection report. The NSA t
, for the uncountable determinations dedicated to theVital Statistics division, as well as UNAM, for the uncount
8. U.S.
Bureau.
andinUrban
(RUP)ofOverview.
ndings in this report
will Census
be turned
into Rural
practice
orderProjection
toproduction
this report.http://www.census.gov/
I hope that the findings in this repor
population/international/software/index.html accessed June 12, 2014; RELTYETS NHOJ .RD
are addressed productively.
ensure that our national development issues are addressed prod
LARENEG–NAICITSITATS
YCNEGA SCITSITATS AIBIMAN
9. U.S. Census Bureau. Sub-national Projections Toolkit.http://www.census.gov/population/
international/software/sptoolkit/ accessed June 12, 2014;
10.National Planning Commission. 2004. Vision 2030. Windhoek: Office of the President;
DR. JOHN STEYTLER
STATISTICIAN–GENERAL
NAMIBIA STATISTICS AGENCY
i
1 to 2041
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