Meat and Livestock
Review & Outlook 2011/12
9th March 2012
1
Contents
Summary ...................................................................................................................................... 3
Cattle and Beef ............................................................................................................................. 5
Cattle disposals lower ................................................................................................................ 6
Export meat plant supplies down by over 4% .............................................................................. 6
Carcase weights increase ........................................................................................................... 7
Live cattle exports 37% lower .................................................................................................... 9
Cattle Prices ............................................................................................................................ 10
Markets for Irish beef .............................................................................................................. 10
Outlook for 2012 ......................................................................................................................... 11
Pigs and Pigmeat ........................................................................................................................ 15
Disposals increase by nine per cent .......................................................................................... 15
Irish pig prices nine per cent higher .......................................................................................... 17
Markets for Irish pigmeat ......................................................................................................... 18
Outlook for 2012 ......................................................................................................................... 18
Sheep and sheepmeat ................................................................................................................. 21
Disposals................................................................................................................................. 21
Lamb Prices............................................................................................................................. 23
Sheepmeat Exports .................................................................................................................. 23
Outlook for 2012 ......................................................................................................................... 24
Statistical Appendix.....................................................................................................................26
9th March 2012
2
Summary
Review of 2011
Irish Meat & Livestock Exports
Species
2010
2011(e)
2011/2010
€m
€m
% +/-
1,573
1,805
+15
Pigmeat
336
395
+18
Poultry
203
210
+3
Sheepmeat
163
180
+10
Live Animals
245
205
-16
2,520
2,795
+11
Beef
TOTAL

The combined value of meat and livestock exports grew by an estimated 11% to
almost €2.8 billion in 2011. All the main species experienced strong growth with the
exception of live exports.

A decrease of almost 5% in finished cattle supplies coupled with strong demand on key
export markets, led to a rise of 18% in average cattle prices. This helped increase the
value of beef exported by 15%, or more than €230m in 2011 despite some fall in export
volumes. For the year, beef exports were valued at €1.8 billion.

A rise of almost 10% in pig supplies coupled with higher average prices boosted the
value of exports by 18% to €395m.

Poultry exports were boosted by increased volumes as average prices for fresh/chilled
products were largely unchanged. This resulted in the value of exports rising by an
estimated 3% to €210m.

The value of sheepmeat exports increased by 10% to reach an estimated €180m.
Despite sheep supplies showing little change, this was more than offset by a strong price
increase, as lamb prices increased by 9%.

The weakening in demand for live cattle and sheep reduced the value of livestock
exports, with a fall of 16% recorded at €205m.
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3
Prospects for 2012

The prospects for the meat & livestock sector in 2012 remain broadly positive with a tight
supply situation both in Ireland and across Europe expected to boost the value of beef
exports. Total finished cattle supplies at export meat plant are expected to fall by around
70-90,000 head.

Sheep supplies are expected to increase by around 2-4% which should help maintain
and boost the value of sheepmeat exports.

Some modest decline in pig supplies should leave meat export plant supplies running at
around 2.8 million head reflecting some reduction in the pig breeding herd, on-going high
feed costs combined with legislation in relation to the ‘partial’ sow stall facilities which
come into effect from 2013.
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4
Cattle and Beef
Following a stabilisation in the European beef market during the second half of 2010, the
supply/demand balance improved further in 2011 as a combination of increased demand for
European beef products on international markets and lower imports from South America
helped offset ongoing sluggish consumer demand.
Cattle prices across Europe increased significantly as the year progressed reflecting the EU
position changing from being a net importer to net exporter of beef. The weighted EU-15 R3
male cattle price rose by 11% to €3.50/kg. Prices strengthened significantly as the year
progressed, especially during the Autumn period.
European male cattle price trends (% change)*
25
21
20
18
15
13
12
10
10
8
8
5
0
Italy
Spain
France
Year
UK
Jan-Jun
Ireland
Germany
Poland
Jun-Dec
Source: EU Commission
*All prices refer to R3 young bulls with exception of Ireland and UK which refer to R3 steers
The prospects for 2012 point to the relatively tight supply situation continuing across Europe,
especially the UK and France, while Irish finished cattle supplies are also set to tight further.
The latest forecast from the European beef forecasting meeting suggest that output in the
EU-15 region will fall by up to 3% in 2012.
Household purchase data from the UK shows that for the year ending the 25th December, the
volume of beef purchased by UK households fell by 3%. Figures for France show retail beef
sales eased by 3% during the year ending the 25th December.
9th March 2012
5
Consumer decisions will be closely related to economic developments, with most of our main
European markets adjusting to austerity changes. This is expected to lead to lower
consumption, with the latest European working beef forecasting meeting signalling a fall of
around 1% in consumption during 2012.
Cattle disposals lower
Total cattle disposals in 2011 were almost 10% lower than previous year levels at just 1.9
million head. This reflected a lower carryover of stock into 2011, combined with slower live
exports throughout the year as stronger prices affected competiveness. The key trends in
disposals during 2011 were as follows:
Exports meat plant supplies decreased by over 4%.
Live exports almost 37% lower.
Irish cattle disposals, 2011 vs. 2010 (‘000 head)
Export meat plants
Live exports
Local abattoirs
Total
2010
2011
% Ch
1,643
1,570
-4.4
339
215
-36.5
73
75
+2.7
2,055
1,860
-9.5
Source: Bord Bia
Export meat plant supplies down by over 4%
Cattle throughput at meat export plants fell by more than 4% to 1.57 million head. Prime
cattle supplies fell by more than 6% to 1.18 million head, reflecting a lower carryover of
supplies into 2011. For the first half of the year, throughput of prime cattle was 38,000 head
lower, with a drop of 41,000 head recorded during the second half.
In terms of the different categories of cattle, steer supplies fell by 13% to 578,000 head. The
majority of this decrease was due to calf registrations falling by 7% in 2009 to 2.4 million
head combined with an increase in live exports of 138,000 head in the same year.
Supplies of heifers were almost 7% lower at 415,000 head as producers retained this stock
for breeding purposes. The rise in young bull supplies continued with a rise of 23% recorded
at 185,000 head.
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6
Irish export meat plant supplies, 2011 vs. 2010 (head)
+35,000
40,000
20,000
+7,000
0
0
-20,000
-29,000
-40,000
-60,000
-80,000
-73,000
-86,000
-100,000
Total
Steers
Heifers
Cows
Y.B
Others
Source: Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine
Carcase weights increase
Carcase weights across all categories increased during 2011 as better grazing conditions
throughout the year combined with stronger producer prices led to a rise of almost 3% in
prime cattle average weights.
Heifer carcase weights showed the strongest increase with weights almost 3% higher
at 302kg.
The increase in cow and young bull carcase weights was marginally lower, with
average carcase weights increasing by 8kg and 9kg to 317kg and 367kg,
respectively.
Steer carcase weights showed the lowest increase at 7kg to reach 363kg.
Average Carcase weights at export meat plants (kg)
2010
2011
% Ch
Steers
356
363
+2.0
Heifers
294
302
+2.7
Cows
309
317
+2.6
Young Bull
358
367
+2.5
Source: Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine
9th March 2012
7
Distribution of Irish Beef Production, 2011
A 2% rise in carcase weights helped offset a 4% decline in cattle throughput at meat export
plants. This left net beef output 2% lower at 547,000 tonnes during 2011.
Beef imports for the year rose by 12% to 55,000 tonnes, reflecting the impact of tighter
availability of supplies, with large quantities of this product being re-exported. Most of the
increase came from the UK.
Beef consumption remained steady at 92,000 tonnes with Kantar figures showing some
marginal improvement at retail level despite average prices increasing by almost 2%.
These factors contributed towards beef availability for export being 1% lower at 510,000
tonnes.
Export Meat Plants
Local Abattoirs
529,500t
17,500t
Total Production
547,000t
Beef Imports
55,000t
Total Beef
Availability
602,000t
Exports
Consumption
510,000t
92,000t
Source: Bord Bia estimates
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8
Live cattle exports 37% lower
Live cattle exports reached 214,500 head in 2011, which was almost 37% below the level
recorded in 2010. The principal factors behind the slowdown in this trade revolved around
declining demand for Irish calves in the Benelux region, weakening feedlot demand in Spain
and Italy and some decline in the relative competitiveness of Irish cattle exports to Northern
Ireland.
1. For the year, calf exports are estimated to have decreased by 45% to around 88,100
head with the Netherlands still taking 39% of the total.
2. Exports of weanlings and store cattle also endured a difficult year, with exports falling
by 34% to 79,600 head. Shipments to the two traditional markets, Italy and Spain,
were adversely affected. Albeit, shipments to Italy held up better than Spain, with
exports to Italy just 18% lower at 48,000 head compared to exports been 79% lower
at 5,100 head to Spain.
3. Exports to the UK fell by around 36,700 head to reach 67,100 head for the year with
around 59,400 of the total destined for Northern Ireland. Exports of finished cattle to
Northern Ireland fell by 14,300 head to 40,200 head. However, shipments of finished
cattle to Great Britain increased by 1,200 head to 5,200 head.
4. The Spanish market showed significant weakening, with live cattle shipments down
by almost 59%. This fall away in trade was largely attributable to a similar decline in
calf exports.
Irish live cattle exports, 2011 vs. 2010 (‘000 head)
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Total
Calves
Weanlings
2010
Stores
Finished
2011
Source: Dept. of Agriculture, Food and the Marine
9th March 2012
9
Cattle Prices
Average prices across all categories of cattle showed a significant increase in 2011, as trade
continued to strengthen as the year progressed reflecting beef availability on the European
market. The on-going strong demand for European beef from Turkey and Russia helped to
boost both the European and Irish trade. Irish prices started to gain considerable momentum
from Autumn 2010 onwards as concerns over domestic and European supplies increased.
Steer prices were on average 18% higher at €3.43 kg dw excl. VAT. The highest prices were
recorded in December, with prices 26% ahead of prior year levels at €3.82 kg dw excel.
VAT.
Irish R3 steer prices, 2011 Vs 2010 (c/kg dw excl VAT)
425
400
375
2011
350
325
2010
300
275
250
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
Source: Dept. of Agriculture, Food and the Marine
R3 heifer price trends were similar, rising by 18% to €3.53 /kg dw excl. VAT.
Cow prices showed the greatest increase, reflecting stronger manufacturing beef demand.
O3 Cow prices for the year were 20% higher at €2.90/kg excl. VAT, with prices in December
showing the strongest increase, as prices rose by almost 27% to €3.22/kg excel. VAT.
Markets for Irish beef
While volumes destined for the United Kingdom eased during 2011, the market continues
to account for almost half of total export volumes at an estimated 254,000 tonnes and were
valued at some €850 million. This represents a rise of more than €90 million in the value of
exports.
Export volumes to Continental EU markets were largely maintained during 2011 at 237,000
tonnes with trade valued at €920 million. Stronger shipments to Germany and Scandinavia
helped offset lower exports to the Netherlands and France. Trade was helped by increased
9th March 2012
10
export demand for European beef in markets such as Turkey and Russia, which saw
shipments increase by more than 110,000 tonnes during the first nine months of the year.
Exports of Irish beef to International markets benefited from stronger import demand with
shipments rising by around 30% to around 19,000 tonnes. This reflected stronger demand in
Russia as well as increased trade to Switzerland, South Africa and the Middle East.
Market Distribution of Irish beef (‘000 tonnes cwe)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
United Kingdom
Cont. EU
2010
Int.Mkts
2011(e)
Source: Bord Bia estimates
Outlook for 2012
The outlook for the European beef market remains reasonably good for 2012 with a drop of
3% in output among the EU-15 member states anticipated. This allied with little change in
beef output among a number of leading global exporters point to an ongoing relatively tight
supply situation on the European market. However, prospects for consumer demand remain
unclear with much likely to depend on economic developments.
Little change among major global exporters
A fall of almost 5% in US beef output is expected to offset a modest recovery in Brazilian
and Argentinean output during 2012. Export availability from the five major exporters of
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, The United States and Uruguay, which together account for
almost two thirds of global trade is expected to show little change at around 4.9 million
tonnes. India continues to emerge as a major exporter with further double digit growth
anticipated in 2012 to bring shipments to 1.3 million tonnes, most of which goes to other
Asian markets and The Middle East/North Africa.
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11
EU beef output to fall by 3%
The anticipated fall in EU output is largely attributable to lower output in France, the UK and
Ireland. French output is forecast to fall by 4% to 1.51 million tonnes on the back of the
drought that occurred in 2011, which led to some liquidation of the herd. UK output is
expected to fall by 6% to 881,000 tonnes with most of this fall occurring in the first half of the
year, which demonstrates the earlier marketing of animals during 2011.
The prospects for International demand for European beef in 2012 remain positive, which
will result in the EU remaining a net exporter of beef, although it remains to be seen if Turkey
can maintain its current import levels. The increased demand for offal’s and live cattle is also
expected to be maintained.
EU beef consumption under pressure
The impact of ongoing austerity measures across various member states is expected to
result in EU-15 consumption falling by 1% to 6.94 million tonnes, with the strongest falls
anticipated in the UK and Spain. Any further dampening in demand could result in intensified
levels of price promotions across key markets such as the United Kingdom.
EU beef market in 2012 (% change on 2011)
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
-3.0
-3.5
0
-1.5
-3
Production
Consumtpion
Net trade
Source: Bord Bia estimates
The relatively tight supply situation is expected to help maintain European cattle prices
during 2012. The strength of Irish cattle prices during 2011 resulted in Irish R3 steer prices
averaging 97% of the EU male cattle prices, which compares to an average of 91% in the
previous two years. Up to the middle of February 2012, R3 steer prices were running 21%
higher than the corresponding period in 2011. Given the likely supply/demand dynamics in
the EU beef market in 2012, it is hoped that Irish beef sector will be well placed to maintain
this momentum.
9th March 2012
12
Irish R3 steer vs. EU R3 male cattle prices, 2009 to date (c/kg dw)
Ireland, R3 steers
Dec/11
Oct/11
Aug/11
Jun/11
Apr/11
Feb/11
Dec/10
Oct/10
Aug/10
Jun/10
Apr/10
Feb/10
Dec/09
Oct/09
Aug/09
Jun/09
Apr/09
Feb/09
400
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
EU, R3 males
Source: EU Commission
The convergence evident in global and EU cattle prices throughout 2010 continued during
2011, although global prices didn’t reach the peaks evident in late 2010. For the year
Brazilian steer prices averaged around 75% of the EU male cattle price compared to 72% in
2010. The prospects for 2012 suggest that this level of convergence is set to be maintained.
Further decline in Irish cattle supplies
Figures from the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine’s AIM database show that
on the 1st December 2011 there were 90,000 fewer male animals aged between 12 – 30
months while a drop of almost 27,000 female animals was recorded in this age bracket. This
reflects the strength of live exports in 2009/2010 and a slowdown in calf registrations over
the period. These figures point to a further tightening in finished cattle availability in 2012.
Based on the assumption that live exports of finished cattle remain unchanged in 2012 and
the increased retention of breeding heifers, particularly on dairy farms, will result in higher
cull cow disposals, it is expected that total export meat plant cattle supplies in 2012 will
decline by 70-90,000 head to reach 1.48 to 1.50 million head. This would leave beef exports
for the year running at almost 5% lower at around 485,000 tonnes.
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13
Trends in Irish cattle numbers by age, December 1st 2011
(Change in ‘000 head on December 2010)
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
Females
0
Males
-20,000
-40,000
-60,000
-80,000
0-6
06-12
12-18
18-24
24-30
30-36
Age (Months)
Source: Dept of Agriculture, Food and the Marine
Considering the price competitiveness of Irish live cattle, exports are expected to remain
slow during 2012. Dampening demand across our key export markets such as the
Netherlands, Italy, Spain and the UK is expected to materialise.
Calf exports are expected to remain subdued, especially in the case of calves destined for
the Dutch market. In December 2011, the Dutch regulatory body for the veal sector, SKV,
imposed new restrictions on the import of calves from Ireland, citing issues with Bovine TB.
The new regulations state that Dutch finishers can only import calves directly from Ireland.
That is upon import, calves must be transported to the premises where they are to be
finished. This would prevent Irish calves being fed initially on a rearing/growing farm and
traveling on to a separate finishing farm, which is common practice in rose veal production.
Demand for weanlings, stores and finished cattle in Italy, Spain and the UK will remain under
pressure due to the on-going strength in live prices.
9th March 2012
14
Pigs and Pigmeat
Disposals increase by nine per cent
Total pig disposals in the Republic of Ireland during 2011 increased by 9% to 3.5 million
head. This reflects an increase of 10% in export meat plant throughput and a 4% increase in
local abattoir throughput coupled with a 7% increase in live exports of finished pigs to
Northern Ireland.
Irish pig disposals, 2011 vs. 2010 (‘000 head)
Export meat plants
Live exports of finished pigs to NI
Local abattoirs
Total
2010
2011
% Ch
2,601
2,847
+9.5
568
609
+7.2
56
58
+3.6
3,225
3,514
+9.0
Source: Bord Bia, DAFM, CSO
Finished pig supplies at export meat plants stood at almost 2.85 million head, almost 10%
higher than 2010 levels, reflecting an 8% in the breeding herd that took place from June
2010 to June 2011 combined with improved productivity that took place during this period.
Sow and boar disposals for the year at export meat plants reached 88,400 head, almost 8%
above year earlier levels.
Quarterly finished pig supplies, 2011 vs. 2010 (‘000 head)
750
700
650
600
550
Q1
Q2
2010
Q3
Q4
2011
Source: Dept of Agriculture, Food and the Marine
9th March 2012
15
Distribution of Irish pigmeat production, 2011
Given the prevailing market environment, Irish pigmeat exports performed reasonably well
throughout 2010. An increase of almost 10% in pig supplies at export meat plant as the
breeding herd recovered boosted export volumes to 168,000 tonnes cwe.
Domestic consumption recovered by 6% to 147,000 tonnes. A strong increase in pigmeat
imports to an estimated 81,000 tonnes was evident with most of the increase processed in
Ireland before being re-exported..
Export Meat Plants
Local Abattoirs
229,000t
5,000t
Total Production
234,000t
Pigmeat Imports
81,000t
Total Pigmeat
Availability
315,000t
Exports
Consumption
168,000t
147,000t
Source: Bord Bia Estimates
9th March 2012
16
Irish pig prices nine per cent higher
A better International demand for EU pigmeat combined with some slowdown in production
as the year progressed created a better market environment for Irish pigmeat, although
pressure on producers in the form of ongoing high feed costs persisted throughout the year.
Irish pig prices increased by 9% or 13c/kg to €1.43/kg during 2011. Pig prices were
consistently above year earlier levels throughout the year, with the strongest rise evident
during the second half of the year as European pigmeat production slowed down.
Figures from the EU Commission show that pig production across the EU-27 during the first
half of 2011 were 2% higher than a year earlier. Figures from the EU Commission's pig
forecasting working group in early October, indicated a slowdown in the rate of increase was
during the second half with final quarter showing a rise of just 1% on a year earlier resulting
in an annual increase just under 2%.
Irish prices remained at 93% of the EU average price. The combination of stronger supplies
and stronger prices led to the value of Irish pigmeat exports in 2011 rising by 18% to an
estimated €395 million.
Irish Grade ‘E’ Pig Prices, 2011 vs. 2010 (c/kg dw excl. VAT)
155
2011
150
145
140
135
2010
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: Dept of Agriculture, Food and the Marine
9th March 2012
17
Markets for Irish pigmeat
2011 saw some considerable changes in the market distribution of Irish pigmeat exports with
a strong increase in shipments outside of Europe more than offsetting a challenging market
environment within Europe.
Despite the challenges the United Kingdom remained the largest export market for Irish
pigmeat. Shipments for the year were impacted by an ongoing competitive UK market
combined with better import demand in other markets. For the year shipments are estimated
to have been increased marginally to 72,000 tonnes carcase weight equivalent with an
estimated value of just over €245m.
Exports to the Continental EU markets were impacted by a sluggish import demand in
many Western European markets and the stronger market demand for Irish pigmeat in
markets such as Asia and Russia. For the year, exports to the Continent are estimated to
have increased slightly to around 43,000 tonnes and were worth an estimated €75m. A slight
increase in exports to Denmark and Eastern Europe were offset by slower sales to France,
Germany and Italy.
Exports of Irish pigmeat to International markets were significantly boosted by better
access to key markets in Asia such as China, ongoing strong demand in Russia and a better
trade to the United States. For the year exports of Irish pigmeat to markets outside of the EU
are estimated to have jumped by more than 56% to 53,000 tonnes product weight with
around two thirds of the total destined for China and Russia. Up until the end of November,
exports to China had increased eight fold, while exports to Russia and Japan had almost
doubled as demand in these economies continues to build. The value of trade is estimated
at €72m.
Outlook for 2012
The prospects of an increase of 2% in global pigmeat output for 2012 and a slower import
requirement in key markets such as Russia and South Korea may dampen exports of EU
pigmeat. However, lower EU production is expected to help offset this development and lead
to a relatively stable EU market.
Stronger global pig supplies
China is expected to drive the growth in global pigmeat production in 2012 with a rise of
almost 4% anticipated fuelled by a sharp increase in producer prices and recent government
9th March 2012
18
measures such as a productive sow subsidy. However, pig numbers will remain below 2009
levels.
Russia and Japan are both expected to see increased production while US output is forecast
to rise by 2% leaving the EU as the only major producer to show a decline in 2012.
Grain prices set to remain strong
The strength of feed prices continues to cause difficulties for producers. During 2011,
German feed wheat prices were more than 35% ahead of 2010 levels at €215/tonne having
peaked at €245/tonne in April. The prospects for global wheat prices in 2012 remain
reasonably strong according to Rabobank with the 4th largest global wheat crop on record
being offset by stronger global demand during the 2011/2012 season. In the US, wheat
prices are expected to be supported by ongoing strong coarse grain price and overall
Rabobank don’t expect any major change in price levels in 2012.
Feed Wheat Prices (Hamburg, €/t)
300
250
200
150
100
50
Dec/11
Sep/11
Jun/11
Mar/11
Dec/10
Sep/10
Jun/10
Mar/10
Dec/09
Sep/09
Jun/09
Mar/09
Dec/08
Sep/08
Jun/08
Mar/08
0
Source: HGCA
Lower EU output anticipated
The results of the October 2011 EU pig forecasting working group suggest that EU pigmeat
production will drop by 1.3% in 2012. However, the drop of 4% in sow numbers recorded in
the May/June EU pig survey and the impending introduction of a ‘partial’ stall ban on EU pig
production from January 2013 suggest that the rate of decline in output may be greater. The
decline is expected to commence in the 2nd quarter.
9th March 2012
19
The decline is expected to be greatest in Poland where sow numbers fell by 15% in
December 2011. Other key producers that have recorded lower sow numbers include
Denmark and Germany, with numbers back by 4% and 2%, respectively. The Netherlands
were the only main producers to show an increase in December 2011 sow numbers at just
over 1%.
EU pigmeat production in 2012 (% change on previous year)
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
2.3
2.2
1.9
1.1
0.3
-1.4
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
2011
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
2012
Source: EU Commission
Irish pig supplies to show little change
Despite a drop of over 2% in the Irish pig breeding herd in the latest December livestock
survey, higher levels of productivity will lead to a stable or a marginal decline in the pig
supply base in 2012. Most of the breeding herd fall was evident in the other sows for
breeding and gilts in pig categories, which suggests a decision by producers to reduce
numbers in the face of ongoing high feed costs. The ‘partial’ sow stall ban coming into force
in January 2013 will also impact on producer decisions as the year progresses.
This is expected to result in total export meat plant supplies falling marginally to around 2.8
million head.
9th March 2012
20
Sheep and sheepmeat
Disposals
Total sheep disposals were largely unchanged in 2011 at 2.43 million head. A slight
increase in export meat supplies was offset by a significant fall in live exports due to
uncompetitive prices. Disposals at local abattoirs were nine per cent lower at 240,000 head.
Irish sheep disposals, 2011 vs. 2010 (‘000 head)
Export Meat Plants
2010
2011
% Ch
2,120
2,171
+2.4
47
17
-63.8
263
240
-9.0
2,430
2,428
-0.1
Live Exports
Local Abattoirs
Total
Source: Bord Bia, DAFM, CSO
Lamb supplies at export meat plants were more than 4% higher in 2011 at approximately 1.9
million head, reflecting increased ewe retentions in the breeding flock, with the size of the
breeding flock increasing by over 4% to 2.52 million head by December 2011 on previous
year levels. Cull ewe disposals were 28,000 head or 9% lower at 277,000 head reflecting
this resurgence in the breeding flock as better prices boosted confidence levels within the
sector.
Quarterly lamb supplies at export meat plants, (‘000 head)
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2010
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Source: Dept of Agriculture, Food and the Marine
9th March 2012
21
Distribution of Irish Sheepmeat Production 2011
Sheep throughput at export meat plants increased by over 2% during 2011. Net sheepmeat
output finished marginally higher at 48,100 tonnes for 2011.
Against a backdrop of tighter consumer spending, consumption fell by 4% to 15,100 tonnes,
with most of this fall occurring in the foodservice sector. This resulted in a rise of 3% in
export volumes to 36,500 tonnes.
Export Meat Plants
Local Abattoirs
42,600t
5,500t
Total Production
48,100t
Sheepmeat Imports
3,500t
Total Sheepmeat
Availability
51,600t
9th March 2012
Exports
Consumption
36,500t
15,100t
22
Lamb Prices
On average, Irish lamb prices were 9% higher in 2011 at €4.78 /kg dw excl. VAT, with prices
significantly stronger during the first half of the year, when lamb prices were up by 11% at
€5.12/kg dw excl. VAT, despite the strength of the Euro during this period which affected
Irish competitiveness.
Irish Lamb Prices, 2011 vs. 2010 (c/kg dw excl. VAT)
650
2011
600
550
500
2010
450
400
350
300
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: Dept of Agriculture, Food and the Marine.
Sheepmeat Exports
The volume of Irish sheepmeat exports is estimated to have increased by almost 3% to
36,500 tonnes reflecting some increase in sheep throughput at export meat plants combined
with some increase in carcase weights. The proportion of Irish exports that are in cut form
continued to grow, with just over 50% of exports in boneless form up to the end of
September compared to 40% during the corresponding period in 2010.
The market diversification evident over recent years continued with just under a quarter of
shipments destined for markets other than France and the UK in 2011.
For the year, it is estimated that with the slight increase in volume, the value of sheepmeat
exports increased by 10% to €180million.
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The French market continued to account for almost half of Irish sheepmeat exports in 2011.
For the year shipments are estimated to have reached just under 18,000 tonnes and were
valued at €87 million.
Despite the strength of the Euro against the pound for much of the year, exports to the UK
market are estimated to have increased by more than 17% to 10,800 tonnes, reflecting
increased demand, as UK exporters took advantage of the favourable exchange rate
coupled with lower imports of New Zealand product on the market.
Irish Sheepmeat Exports 2011 vs. 2010 (‘000 tonnes cwe)
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
France
UK
Other EU
2010
International
2011(e)
Source: Bord Bia estimates
Shipments to other EU markets held up well. Any increase in shipments to Northern
European markets were offset by lower shipments to Mediterranean markets as consumers
in these markets shifted to lower priced sources of protein. In addition, markets such as
Switzerland and Tunisia are of increasing interest to Irish exporters.
Outlook for 2012
Lower European sheepmeat production anticipated in 2012 is expected to help offset any
increased volumes of New Zealand lamb available on the market. In terms of prices, much
will depend on the balance between supply and consumer demand as well the market for
lamb skins throughout the year. In Ireland, a further recovery in sheep output is anticipated.
Lower EU supplies
Figures from the EU Commission suggest that EU sheepmeat production will show a further
fall of 2% in 2012 to less than 850,000 tonnes. In term of demand, the EU Commission
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24
figures suggest a modest recovery in consumption levels but much will depend on consumer
sentiment and the relative price of sheepmeat.
Little change is anticipated in UK output, although signs of weakening consumer demand
may boost export volumes slightly. A drop of 3% in French output and broadly stable
consumption is expected to boost import requirements by around 3% to 118,000 tonnes.
Recovery in New Zealand Output
According to a mid season update from Beef and Lamb New Zealand, production is set to
recover by over 3% during the 2011/2012 season reflecting a 2% increase in the lamb crop
combined with some increase in carcase weights.
Asian markets, and China in particular continue to take an increasing proportion of New
Zealand Lamb with shipments for the first nine months of 2011 running 25% higher than a
year earlier at almost 45,000 tonnes. The market now accounts for almost one fifth of total
shipments.
The increase of more than 40% evident in New Zealand lamb prices in euro terms has also
reduced their competitiveness on the EU market and this situation seems set to remain for
much of 2012.
Irish supplies to rise
The rise in the breeding flock recorded in the December livestock census combined with a
renewed sense of optimism within the sector at farm level are expected to drive an increase
of 2-4% in supplies at export meat plants in 2012. This would deliver export volumes of
around 38,000 tonnes.
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Statistical Appendix
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