Future of the Global Seafood Industry
Opportunity Platforms for the Irish Seafood
Sector
November 2014
Table of Contents
Drivers of change shaping the
future of the global seafood
industry
7
Background to the future
scenarios for the global seafood
industry
18
Future scenarios for the global
seafood industry over the
next five to 10 years
26
The platforms for growth
- Building Trust Chains
- Optimising health for all
- New life for long life
- New value in old places
- Modular mealtimes
51
55
67
79
91
103
Context: Perspectives on the
future of packaging and retail
115
About this report
This report explores the future of the global seafood
industry and the opportunities this presents for the
Irish seafood sector over the next five to 10 years. It
has been produced in association with The Futures
Company.
The report is based on an analysis of the macro-, meso- and micro-level
trends influencing the future of the industry. Our understanding of
these trends have been informed by expert interviews, consumer and
market data, and qualitative insight. In addition, a set of scenarios
looking at the future of the global seafood industry were developed
which look at how some of the key uncertainties shaping the future of
the industry might play out.
Futures techniques have been used to identify and explore potential
opportunities as drivers of change, and to see how they combine to
influence the future of seafood in different ways. The report highlights
opportunities in 10 key markets: the US, the UK, Ireland, Germany,
France, Spain, Brazil, Japan, Russia and China.
The purpose of this report is to help Irish seafood companies to identify
new opportunities for adding value to the category across a range of
potential future scenarios impacting the global seafood industry.
©
2014
3
Ireland’s seafood opportunity
 Ireland is a currently a small actor in the
burgeoning global seafood industry, and its
seafood sector is highly fragmented.
 However Ireland benefits from its location
within rich fishing grounds and is leading
the way in sectors such as organic
aquaculture and sustainable fishing.
 The expansion of the global population, and
increased consumption of seafood bodes well
for the future of industry – the critical
challenge will be to create dependable
supplies of well-managed product.
 For the Irish seafood sector, a growing
potential export market, coupled with
increasing demand for more sustainably
sourced fish, presents significant
opportunities for future growth.
©
2014
4
The project charter: What we set out to explore
How will consumer attitudes to, and consumption, of seafood
change over the next 10 years?
What opportunities for growth and innovation will this present
the Irish seafood sector in both domestic and key export
markets? And how can Bord Bia help to take advantage of these
opportunities?
©
2014
5
The project process
Stage 1: Scanning
Stage 2: Exploring
Stage 3: Unlocking
Understand how the
landscape is evolving
Explore how the future
uncertainties play out
Identify opportunity areas
for Irish seafood companies
Over 70 key global consumer
shifts and industry-shaping
drivers of change were
identified, likely to impact on
the seafood industry globally.
©
2014
Developed and tested a set
of scenarios to explore how
the global seafood industry
could develop as a result of
the drivers of change.
Identified the key opportunity
areas for the Irish seafood
sector and actionable
implications for Irish
producers and processers.
6
Drivers of change shaping the future of the global seafood
industry
©
2014
7
The future of the global seafood industry will be impacted by
drivers of change across a diverse range areas
©
Macro-Economic & Political
Social & Demographic
Health & Wellbeing
Environment & Ethics
Science & Technology
Retail & Consumer
Seafood Industry
Food Consumption
2014
8
These drivers of change were identified through interviews
and a review of evidence
Expert interviews
Stakeholder interviews
1.
Dermot Hurst, The Marine Institute
1.
Marie-Christine Monfort, Sea Matters
2.
Pat Connors, Marine Harvest
2.
Monica Jain, Fish 2.0
3.
Sean Gavin, Irish Seaspray
3.
Bryan Roberts, Kantar Retail
4.
Peter O’Sullivan Green, Shellfish de la
Mer
4.
Michael Griffiths, TNS China
5.
Donal O’Sullivan, Castletownbere
Coop
Simon Wright, Organic and Fair Plus
Consulting
6.
Alexander Weaver, AWF Consulting
6.
Paul Reenan, John West
7.
7.
Jason Whooley, BIM
Dr. Torger Børresen, Technical
University of Denmark
8.
Andy Mulloy, Connemara Seafoods
9.
Susan Steele, SFPA
5.
10. Ken Ecock, Oceanpath
8.
Dr. Cecil Beamish, Assistant
Secretary, Department of Agriculture,
Food and the Marine
Reviewed evidence sources
• Bord Bia, BIM and Department of
Agriculture, Food & the Marine, Marine
Institute publications
• Euromonitor
• FAO, UN, World Bank
• Industry websites such as Undercurrent
News, Fish Update
• The Futures Company consumer trends
knowledge bank
• Global Energies
• MacroDynamics
• Proprietary drivers
• Previous Bord Bia project work
This process surfaced 69 drivers - 31 of which were rated as high priority in terms of their impact
on the seafood industry globally.
©
2014
9
These are the 31 drivers of change rated as a high priority
for the seafood industry
©
1
Growing disposable incomes in emerging markets
2
Rising and more volatile fish prices
3
Increasing scope of fishing regulations
4
Growth of high-end and premium seafood
5
6
7
8
Rising consumer awareness about healthy nutrition
Growing demand for traceability and transparency
Increasing desire for convenience
Depleting wild fish stocks
9
Growing exports of cheaper farmed fish from emerging markets
10
Rising oil prices
11
Growing Population: 7 billion mouths to feed
12
Rapid aging of the global population
13
Growing concern about processed foods and additives
14
Stagnant to moderate growth in Europe
15
Growing concern about the negative environmental impact of consumption
16
Growth of climate change impacts and extreme weather
17
Rising levels of sea pollution
18
Rise of ‘quantified self’ and data driven diets
19
Development of unconventional protein sources
20
Growing development of aquaculture technologies
21
Development of marine biotechnology
22
Continuing challenge of cold chain distribution from Ireland
23
Growing consolidation of the global seafood industry
24
Growing resurgence of ‘from scratch’ cooking
25
Increasing sophistication of food culture
26
The rising popularity of supplements and nutraceuticals
27
Growing interest in 'mood food'
28
Continuing negative attitudes towards fish preparation
29
New retail models combining foodservice
30
Growing influence of NGOs
31
Growth of fast casual foodservice
2014
10
The interrelationships were then mapped to identify which
drivers are most important and most uncertain
High
Importance
(Dominance)
Medium
Importance
Low
•
Growing disposable incomes in emerging
markets
•
•
Stagnant to moderate growth in Europe
•
•
•
Rapid aging of the global population
Growing Population: 7 billion mouths to
feed
Increasing sophistication of food culture
Growing influence of NGOs
Increasing desire for convenience
Increasing scope of fishing regulations
•
Rising consumer awareness about healthy
nutrition
•
•
Depleting wild fish stocks
•
Growing exports of cheaper farmed fish from
emerging markets
•
•
Rising and more volatile fish prices
Rising levels of sea pollution
Rising oil prices
Growing development of aquaculture
technologies
Growing concern about processed foods and
additives
•
Continuing negative attitudes towards
fish preparation
•
Growing consolidation of the global
seafood industry
•
The rising popularity of supplements and
nutraceuticals
•
Growth of climate change impacts and
extreme weather
•
•
Growth of fast casual foodservice
•
Growth of high-end and premium
seafood
Growing resurgence of ‘from scratch’
cooking
•
Growing demand for traceability and
transparency
•
Growing concern about the negative
environmental impact of consumption
•
•
Development of marine biotechnology
•
Rise of ‘quantified self’ and data driven diets
•
New retail models combining foodservice
Importance
Low Uncertainty
©
•
•
•
•
2014
•
•
Growing interest in 'mood food‘
Key:
Important drivers
that are more
certain to happen
Important drivers
that are less
certain to happen
Development of unconventional protein
sources
Continuing challenge of cold chain
distribution from Ireland
Medium Uncertainty
High Uncertainty
11
Our analysis suggests that some of the changes impacting
the industry have greater levels of certainty attached
 The demand for protein will grow as the world’s population
increases
 The world's population will increase from 7 billion today to 8 billion in
2025, with most growth in developing countries.1
 World per capita fish food consumption is projected to reach 20.6kg in
2022, up from nearly 19kg in 2010-12.2
 Emerging markets will become more important consumers and
producers of seafood
 In 2010, only one in four middle-class households were in Asia.
However, by 2020 it is predicted that Asia could hold over half of the
world’s middle-class population, accounting for more than 40% of
global middle-class consumption.3
 Growing aquaculture production in emerging markets such as Chile and
China have increased exports from these competitor markets and put
downward pressure of fish prices.
 Resource constraints will increase reliance on aquaculture
 During the last three decades, world aquaculture production increased
from 5 million to 63 million tonnes. By 2030, aquaculture is projected
to supply over 60% of fish destined for direct human consumption.4
Source: 1. UN World Population Prospects 2013 2. FAO 3. World Bank 3. OECD 4. World Bank
©
2014
12
Climate change is already creating new threats, and new
opportunities, for the seafood industry globally
New threats
 A report published in May 2014 by the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) highlighted the growing threat of
climate change and ocean acidification to marine resources.
 The IPCC estimate that the total loss of landings to global
fisheries by 2050 due to climate change range from EUR 12.5
billion to EUR 30.1 billion, based on a global warming scenario
of 2 degrees.1
 The impact of climate change will not be felt equally around the
world. In high latitudes, fishery yields are likely to increase by 30
– 70% but fall 40 – 60% in the Tropics and Antarctica.1
New opportunities
 Climate change is already changing the distribution of some wild
marine species, creating new opportunities for some markets.
 For example, since 2001 there has been a dramatic increase in
landings of boarfish in Ireland as the species has moved
northwards due to rising sea temperatures. 2
Source: 1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report 2014
Source 2. MCCIP Report ‘Impacts of climate change on fisheries’
©
2014
13
Fuel costs will continue to increase, potentially benefiting
Ireland’s domestic processors
Rising oil prices will continue to put pressure on the global
industry
 Growing demand from emerging markets and declining oil
production in key regions is driving fuel price increases, and
there is a growing consensus that the age of cheap oil is coming
to an end.1
 With doubt over whether renewables will grow fast enough to fill
this gap, the most likely scenario will be one of increasing
competition for oil, higher prices, and volatile supply.
This could make it more economical to land in Ireland
 This presents the Irish industry with an opportunity. As the Irish
Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine noted in Food
Harvest 2020, 88% of the fish caught in the Irish Exclusive
Economic Zone is by non-Irish vessels.2
 As a result, the growing price of fuel suggests “it will be more
advantageous for more non-Irish vessels to land in Ireland than
in their home countries, which if available for sale in Ireland
would benefit domestic processors.”2
1. Economist ‘End of the Oil Age’ (2013) 2. Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine, Food Harvest 2020
©
2014
14
The expanding scope of fishing regulation means that
resource management will continue to be high on the agenda
 Concern about fish stock volumes has led to continuing
restrictions on fishing quotas in the European Union (EU),
although there have been small increases in quotas for some
species.
 New EU regulations means that the scientific community will
play a greater role in setting quotas. Under the reforms to the
Common Fisheries Policy passed in 2013, ministers will in future
be required to adhere to advice from conservation scientists
when setting quotas. The reforms also banned fish discards –
the practice of throwing back fish caught in excess of their
quota. 1
 In addition, new marketing rules will ensure that consumers are
better informed about the fish they buy, by requiring that labels
give more details of the catch area or the type of gear used.2
 Growing regulatory pressure, coupled with increasing fish prices
are making the seafood industry more attractive to merger and
acquisition (M&A) activity, increasing the consolidation within
the industry - albeit from a relatively low baseline.
Sources: 1. The Guardian 18/12/13 ‘EU fish quotas rise in line with sustainable reforms’ 2. The Fish Site 11/12/13, ‘New sustainable Common Fisheries Policy to come into force in January 2014’
©
2014
15
There are however many industry-related uncertainties that
could significantly impact the future of the seafood industry
Speed of consolidation in the seafood industry
 The global seafood industry is still composed of a large number of
small-scale players. The increasing price of fish is however making
investment in the seafood industry more attractive.
 The global seafood industry witnessed steady M&A activity between
2010 and 2013. During this period, over 164 buyers announced and
completed 212 deals.1
Speed of adoption of new aquaculture technologies
 The systems and technology used in aquaculture has developed rapidly
over the last fifty years. The costs of new technologies such as
recirculating aquaculture systems are falling, and there is growing
interest in closed-containment aquaculture on land. However there is
current uncertainty over its commercial viability.2
Development of marine biotechnology
 The growing focus on securing a sustainable supply of food is catalysing
investment in the marine biotechnology sector and there is increasing
interest in the applications of marine biotechnology across medical,
pharmaceutical, aquaculture, nutraceuticals and industrial sectors.
 However marine biotechnology market is still in a nascent stage and
accounts for a tiny percentage of the overall biotechnology market.3
Source: 1. M&A International 2. FishUpdate.com ‘Land-farmed salmon not commercially viable’ 4. European Science Foundation
©
2014
16
The evolution of consumer attitudes towards seafood over
the next decade is also uncertain
Levels of consumer trust in the seafood industry
 Repeated food safety scares are having a damaging effect on
consumers trust in food retailers globally; scandals in one category
impact on others – following the horsemeat scandal trust in food
producers dropped by 24% in the UK.1
Concern about processed foods and additives
 Greater knowledge about the health impacts of additives means
consumers are looking for more natural foods. 66% of Europeans worry
about the presence of colours, preservatives and flavourings in their
food.2
Awareness about healthy nutrition
 Global health and wellness sales are expected to rise steadily and hit a
record high of US$1 trillion by 2017.3 Over the last few decades,
seafood has enjoyed a profile as healthy food. However rising levels of
sea pollution may impact negatively on its health image.
Attitudes towards scratch cooking
 There has been a resurgence in the number of people cooking meals at
home in developed markets as a response to constrained disposable
incomes and a ‘rediscovery’ of the joy of cooking. However the
continuing need for convenience means consumers will want shortcuts.
Sources: 1.Which? 2. European Food Safety Authority 3. Euromonitor International
©
2014
17
Background to the future scenarios for the global seafood
industry
©
2014
18
Scenario planning techniques have long been used to help
navigate uncertainty
1960s
Herman Kahn
a military strategist who
analysed the likely
consequences of nuclear
war and went on to
become one of the
preeminent futurists of
the 20th century,
predicting the rise of
Japan as a super power
and developing many of
today’s scenario planning
techniques
©
2014
1970s
1990s
Royal Dutch Shell
becomes one of the first
corporations to embrace
scenario planning
techniques and business
analysts credit this with
creating significant
competitive advantage
for the company
Andy Grove
who played a critical role
in Intel’s success was
famed for his focus on
strategic inflection points
“I'm a great believer in
particularly being alert to
changes that change
something, anything, by
an order of magnitude,
and nothing operates
with the factors of 10 as
profoundly as the
Internet
2010
Stan Sthanunathan
Head of Research and
Insight at Coke highlights
the importance of looking
to the future in his AdMap
article ‘Don’t explain the
past, predict the future.’
He argues that research
should revolve around
anticipating new
opportunities, using
innovative approaches
and turning insights into
action now
19
One reason why it is difficult to tell the future is that trends
often collide in unexpected ways
“A trend is a trend is
a trend until it bends”
(Ged Davis, Shell)
!?
?!?
©
2014
20
And the further out you go, the more uncertainty there is to
deal with
Uncertainty
Scenarios
(5 to 10 yrs)
Trends
(3 to 5 yrs)
Insight
(1 to 2 yrs)
Predictability
Time
©
2014
21
Scenarios provide one way of coping with this uncertainty
through identifying the interrelationships between drivers of change
Process Outline
The Future Landscape
The Landscape Today
The process pushes thinking away from a linear view of the future by
considering how trends converge to create more divergent outcomes
©
2014
22
We used a set of axes to encapsulate the range of
uncertainties in the drivers
The scenarios are constructed out of a set of 2x2 axes. Each axes is designed to
encapsulate a key future uncertainty, and by combining the axes, we are able to identify
four potential future scenarios shaping the future.
PRIORITIZED DRIVERS
©
2014
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
23
The “actual” future is likely to include elements of all of the
scenarios
SCENARIO 1
SCENARIO 2
Actual
future
SCENARIO 3
©
2014
SCENARIO 4
24
The scenario axes: What makes a good set of scenarios
1. They do not collapse:

Distinct stories emerge in each space and we can
explain why something happens in one but not the
other
2. They reflect the overall mix of uncertain trends

The trends are clustered largely into 2 mutually
exclusive groups
3. They create rich and usable narratives around the
future

The stories feel different from today or, push us to
greater extremes

They allow us to identify granular perspectives on
different aspects of the core question
4. They help to identify emerging strategic issues

©
“The test of good scenarios
is not getting the future
right... The real test of a
good scenario is: did I
make better choices as a
result of having looked at
and understood both my
own environment better
and the consequences of
my actions?
”
Peter Schwartz, Global Business Network
Strategic questions – about all aspects of the business
– emerge from the strategic conversation about the
scenarios
2014
25
Future scenarios for the global seafood industry over the
next five to 10 years
©
2014
26
Future scenarios for the global seafood industry:
The consumer-focused axis
Functional
The prevailing consumer attitude
towards the benefits of seafood
Experiential
This axis describes the attitudes of consumers towards the benefits of
eating seafood versus other protein sources
On the left hand side of the axis, the focus is on the benefit of
seafood to be convenient. Seafood is perceived to be just another
source of protein with little differentiation, as its status as a healthy
food is under greater competition from other categories. As a result
consumers want their seafood to convenient with enhanced health
benefits, and affordable.
On the right hand side of the axis, the focus is on the benefit of
seafood as an experiential food – seafood is perceived to be a
superior source of protein with its own distinct benefits and rituals
of consumption compared to other proteins. As a result consumers
want their seafood to be an experience and are willing to pay more
for it. Consumers have relatively high levels of education and
interest.
©
2014
27
Future scenarios for the global seafood industry:
The seafood industry-focused axis
Managed
This axis describes the perceived nature of resource management
by the seafood industry
Nature of resource management
by the seafood industry
At the top end of the axis, the management of seafood resources by
the industry is perceived to be more managed than previously. This
is a result of regulation that has increased in scope and is more
tightly controlled, and growing consolidation of the seafood industry.
Aquaculture production is highly efficient, based on closed-loop
systems has little interaction with wild stocks. Public trust in the
seafood industry is high.
Unmanaged
On the bottom end of the axis, the management of seafood
resources by the industry is perceived to be more unmanaged than
previously. This is because while regulation exists on paper, it is
ignored and circumvented by producers/processors - and this is
widely publicised by NGOs. The industry has become more regionally
fragmented as a result of volatile fish prices making the industry
unattractive to investors. Aquaculture production is perceived to be
poorly managed with negative impacts on the surrounding
environment. Public trust in the seafood industry is low.
©
2014
28
Outline of scenarios on the future of the global seafood
industry
Scenario 2 – “Celebrating Seafood”
People want a healthy, trusted protein
source they can rely on. In this world the
seafood industry adds value through
innovation that optimises health and builds
trust.
People care about sustainability, and are
looking for innovative ways of savouring
seafood through developing new rituals
and experimenting with a wide range of
species and cooking techniques.
The prevailing consumer attitude
towards the benefits of seafood
Scenario 3 – “Cheap Calories”
Nature of resource management
by the seafood industry
Scenario 1 – “Super Protein”
Experiential
Functional
Managed
Scenario 4 – “Carefree Indulgence”
People want seafood that opens up new
experiences and sensations, and they are
willing to pay for it. In this world, the
seafood industry adds value by finding
ways to source exotic species and creating
products that tantalise the senses.
People want protein that gives them what
they need with minimum expenditure of
time and energy. In this world the seafood
industry adds value through innovation
that creates more product for less money.
Unmanaged
©
2014
29
Fuller description of the scenarios
Managed
In response to the growing demand for a dependable supply of
protein, the global seafood industry has become focused on
achieving economies of scale through advanced
scientific/technological-led management of resources, catalysing
consolidation across international borders. The controlled
standardisation of the products available on the market means
seafood has become perceived by consumers as a trusted but
functional food competing with alternative, scientifically enhanced
sources of protein primarily on the basis of nutritional value.
Innovation in the industry is focused on better resource
management to optimise health and trust.
In response to growing consumer concern about the
management of fish resources globally, the global seafood
industry has become outwardly focused on managing
resources to increase the value of its products rather than
volume. The limitation on resources means that innovation is
focused on experiential value adds. High levels of consumer
engagement with the seafood category and a desire to protect
it as a resource means that the industry focus has shifted
from product to service, and as a result there is emphasis on
rituals that deepen the everyday experience of consuming
seafood.
Scenario 3 – “Cheap Calories”
In response to growing pressure on the seafood industry to
rapidly increase the volume of raw material, the sector
industrialised globally at an unprecedented rate. Continued
fragmentation of the industry and the failure of regulation to
keep up with the speed of technological change means that the
global industry has become perceived externally as unmanaged,
compounded by the growing visibility of food safety scares. The
resulting decline of consumer trust accelerated the industry’s
commoditisation, meaning that innovation in the industry is
focused on price and production efficiency.
Experiential
The prevailing consumer attitude
towards the benefits of seafood
Nature of resource management
by the seafood industry
Scenario 2 – “Celebrating Seafood”
Functional
Scenario 1 – “Super Protein”
Scenario 4 – “Carefree Indulgence”
In response to the development of increasingly sophisticated
food cultures as incomes rise in emerging markets, the global
seafood industry competes to supply at high volume ‘exotic’ and
premium seafood products. This intense competition
exacerbates the unmanaged nature of the resource
management in the industry, which manifests in high levels of
fraud and product mislabelling in order to make resources go
further. Producers who are able to reliably source exotic
seafood can charge high prices, and as a result innovation is
focused on new ways of sourcing.
Unmanaged
©
2014
30
Scenario 1: “Super Protein”
People want a healthy, trusted protein source they can rely on. In this world the seafood
industry adds value through innovation that optimises health and builds trust.
I need to know that the
“seafood
I eat will always be
good for my body and mind
”
©
2014
31
Scenario 1: “Super Protein”
People and Consumers
“Local councils serve
school kids fish-fingers
with enhanced benefits to
make them work harder”

As people became more conscious about the benefits of good
health and wellbeing in the face of a growing ‘lifestyle disease
epidemic’ globally, they looked for foods that demonstrated
enhanced nutritional and wellness benefits.

The perceived healthiness of seafood meant that consumers
naturally gravitated to the category.

Yet as concepts of ‘health’ evolved, so too did consumer
expectations of the seafood category - people increasingly expected
seafood to be managed in a way that ‘optimises’ its health benefits.

The result was that seafood marketed as ‘healthy ‘was no longer
enough to keep consumers engaged – people wanted seafood that
would reliably improve their brain health, their mood, their skin, their
fitness etc.

However the higher levels of standardisation in seafood production
and processing enabled by new technologies meant that seafood
became increasingly perceived by consumers as a functional source
of protein.

Consequently seafood increasingly had to compete against new
categories of alternative protein sources, such as supplements and
vegetable-based proteins.
30 August, 2017
“New optimised seafood
enhanced with micronutrients is named Super
Food of the year”
Functional
19 May, 2018
©
Managed
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry
Headlines from the future
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood
2014
32
Headlines from the future
“Ireland named the Silicon
Valley of the seas”

Increasing pressure from governments and bodies such as the UN
to create dependable supplies of protein in a world where food
security was quickly becoming a critical political issue, meant that
the seafood industry had to scale in a highly managed way that
would increase the reliability of supply.
Managed

This catalysed greater consolidation in the industry, as well as the
development and investment in advanced technologies in
aquaculture.

The tightening scope of food industry health and quality regulation
meant that the seafood industry became better managed for
health as well as for sustainability.

This enabled the seafood industry to respond to growing
consumer desire for enhanced nutritional benefits by better
controlling what went into seafood and the conditions within which
it was produced.

The perception of tightly controlled regulation enabled people to
trust the industry’s message that the growing use of genetic
modification was necessary in ensuring effective management of
limited resources.
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry
Scenario 1: “Super Protein”
Industry and Regulators
29 July, 2020
“New technology lets you
check the health status of
fishes’ diets”
Functional
17 June, 2016
©
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood
2014
33
Scenario 1: “Super Protein”
Glimpses of the future today - INDUSTRY NEWS
Functional
A recent study by Bains and Company
generated a lot of publicity after it claimed
that ‘health is the new wealth’ noting that
over the last decade there has been a
huge shift in people’s attitudes towards
health. The study found that people now
would readily trade premium medical care
for access to healthier living options, such
as more nutritious food, health education,
exercise and innovative healthcare
technologies
©
Fish 2.0 is a competition that seeks to
promote new business models that drive
social and environmental change in the
seafood supply chain through use of
technology. The 2013 winners of the
competition included Blue Planet, who
have developed a breakthrough
recirculating aquaculture system
technology for inland production and
Cryoocyte, who have developed a novel
technology to cryopreserve fish eggs.
In April 2014 a proposed Euro35 million
project was announced by an IrishNorwegian consortium to build one of the
world’s largest marine food ingredient
plants in south Donegal – what has been
described as a “game-changer” by the
Irish Minister for Agriculture, Food and
the Marine Simon Coveney. The Minister
said that a ‘sustainable and sciencebased’ aquaculture would help to meet
increasing demand worldwide for highquality protein.
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry
Managed
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood
2014
34
Scenario 1: “Super Protein”
Glimpses of the future today - PRODUCTS
Functional
Healthy ranges
French seafood company Ïod
proposes to reinvent the way
salmon is consumed and aims
at introducing smoked salmon
to people not used to eating
seafood, particularly children
and young people. There are 5
ranges: classic, healthy (lowsalt, enriched with Omega 3),
perfumed (orange, pistachio,
fig or poppy), instant (blinis,
sashimi, half smoked or dice),
kids (nature, honey, strawberry
candy or bread fingers).
©
Seafood burgers
Notoriously reluctant to
consume seafood products,
teenagers have been targeted
by the French frozen food
brand Iglo. To appeal to such
non-consumers and meet their
expectations, Iglo bets on more
playful wording. 3 products
have been designed: “the big
cod”, “the big hake” and the
“fish and crock hake” fried in
potato breadcrumbs.
Fast healthy seafood
In Spain seafood is not
always regarded as
convenient as it is not
always easy to prepare.
However, recent
innovations in food service
could change this – La
Lobsteria in Alcobenda, a
suburb in Madrid, has
introduced a new specialty
of lobster rolls that it is
positioned as healthy fast
food.
Nutraceuticals and
Omega 3 sprinkles
In the supplements category,
there has been an expansion
of ‘sprinkles’ – omega 3 that
can sprinkled over food, such
as seeds. In seafood
supplements specifically,
Reckitt Benckiser is making its
debut in the £400m UK
vitamin, mineral and
supplement market with its
MegaRed range of krill
capsules. Made with Antarctic
krill which RB claims is more
easily dispersed in the
stomach than fish oil and has
no fishy aftertaste.
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry
Managed
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood
2014
35
Scenario 2: “Celebrating Seafood”
People care about sustainability, and are looking for innovative ways of savouring seafood
through developing new rituals and experimenting with a wide range of species and cooking
techniques.
Seafood is a resource that we
“need
to take care of, so I try to
make my everyday consumption
of it an enjoyable experience
”
©
2014
36
Scenario 2: “Celebrating Seafood”
People and Consumers
Managed
 Rising awareness of the depletion of seafood stocks led to an
environment where consumers looked for products that allow
seafood to be consumed in a sustainable and considered way,
making the most of the resources available while protecting
species for the future.
“Irish Fishmongers Got Talent
tops TV ratings on Saturday night”
 In this environment, consumers focused on savouring seafood,
keen to glean every little pleasure possible from each experience,
content with infrequent consumption to protect a resource they
valued highly.
14 June, 2016
 As such, two distinct areas of demand emerged; for fresh whole
seafood which could be artfully prepared and cooked, building on
culinary classes and seafood specific recipe collections, and for
pre-prepared value-added products, which spoke to the desire for
provenance and authenticity but in a more convenient and time
efficient way.
“Supermarkets hit as rising
numbers of consumers choose to
buy their fish from specialists”
18 November, 2015
 Furthermore, seafood became a signifier of special occasions,
with new rituals developing around a wider range of sustainable
species. In many ways seafood took on an artisanal status, with
some being priced-out of regular consumption.
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood
©
2014
Experiential
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry
Headlines from the future
37
Scenario 2: “Celebrating Seafood”
Industry and Regulators
 Consumers’ avoidance of scientifically enhanced seafood
production caused the industry to respond by focusing on
increasing the value of its limited natural resources through
new ways - using product innovation and supplementary
services to heighten the experience.
 Management and regulation of the industry had a very
sustainable agenda through the Common Fisheries Policy, and
worked to protect and safeguard resources to ensure the long
term future of seafood.
 The marketing of seafood predominantly highlighted
provenance, telling the in-depth story of the brand and
harnessing label development to further the visibility of this
narrative. Moreover, traceable technology was used to immerse
people in the life of seafood, providing micro-specific and
distinct details.
Headlines from the future
“90% of Irish fish can now be
traced back to the fisherman who
caught it”
19 August, 2018
“Sales of pickled ginger double
as home-made sushi rises in
popularity”
8 June, 2017
 Seafood brands found that products and services to
compliment and accompany consumption were popular, such
as specific beverages and serves to suit certain formats,
classes to teach how to prepare different species and
partnerships with chefs to develop innovative recipes.
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood
©
2014
Experiential
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry
Managed
38
Scenario 2: “Celebrating Seafood”
Glimpses of the future today - INDUSTRY NEWS
It's been a few decades since we
started turning cooks into stars, and
still the phenomenon continues to
grow. These days, the Emerils,
Marios and Gordons of the world
scarcely need the qualifier chef —
they are celebrities, plain and
simple…In the Food Network era,
the phenomenon of the celebrity
chef has utterly transformed the
restaurant industry and, in the
process, changed the very nature of
how we eat.
The World Fish Migration Day 2014
(WFMD) is a one day global
initiative, with local events
worldwide. It will be an annual
event set aside to commemorate the
migration of fish in our rivers, lakes
and oceans. It is meant to improve
the publics’ understanding of the
importance of open rivers and
migratory fish. Fish migration is very
important in maintaining the health
and productivity of rivers, lakes and
other aquatic ecosystems. This
year’s theme of the WFMD is
“Connecting Fish, Rivers and
People”
Experts yesterday claimed the horsemeat
scandal and the growing obesity crisis
had sparked a boom in "cooking from
scratch".
The economic crisis was also
encouraging Mums and Dads to
"rediscover" the kitchen, and try their
hands at making meals rather than buying
ready prepared processed food. In
general people are rediscovering the joy
of cooking. They have started making
their own food again and are now
realising it's not as hard as they may have
thought.
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood
©
2014
Experiential
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry
Managed
39
Scenario 2: “Celebrating Seafood”
Glimpses of the future today - PRODUCTS
Special occasions
Gifting is a huge part of
Chinese culture, especially
around holiday times (spring
festival, golden week).
Recently, online stores have
started to offer fresh
seafood gift boxes in limited
edition for the holidays.
Enhancing the experience
With the rise of the sushi in the
last 15 years in France, brands
have enriched this meal
environment with new products.
Among them, Gingko has
created a drink dedicated to
sushi tasting. The packaging
itself borrows visual codes used
by sushi brands so the
attribution is immediate. Sweet
and slightly acid at the same
time, this lemon and ginger
flavored infusion is 100%
natural.
Making more of preparation
The “Fish manufactory №1”
is a new format of seafood
retail in Russia. It offers
specialist preparation and
serve of seafood, with a
friendly atmosphere, high
quality products (raw and
prepared), and
supplementary products like
lemons, dressing, olive oil
etc.
1,2,3 cooking
Paella is usually something that
is prepared and eaten fresh in
Spain, buying the ingredients
(mussel, shrimps, squid,
calamari) separately; for
seafood paella you also need a
good fish stock and proper
paella rice. This 1,2,3 paella is
targeted to consumers who
need everything ready-to-cook
(maybe also younger
consumers who don’t know
how to prepare the cooking
process, which is quite tricky…)
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood
©
2014
Experiential
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry
Managed
40
Scenario 3: “Cheap Calories”
People want protein that gives them what they need with minimum expenditure of time and
energy. In this world the seafood industry adds value through innovation that creates more
product for less money.
I just want no fuss low cost
“seafood
so I can get on with
my life.
”
©
2014
41
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood
Headlines from the future
“Rise of group buying and bulk

As people living in developed markets adapted to post-recession
life, the thrifty behaviours they learned during the hard times
stayed with them. In emerging markets, even as incomes rose,
people wanted to make sure they got more for their money.

The focus of consumers globally therefore centred of finding cheap
sources of protein, still with functional health benefits, that
required minimum fuss and guaranteed to ‘go a long way’.

As a result of growing mass production in the industry to meet
demand for cheap and convenient protein, seafood became viewed
by consumers as the ‘chicken of the sea’ – a mass produced and
processed food favoured as a quick, versatile and healthy
ingredient.

However following a number of highly visible food safety scandals
in the seafood industry, public trust in the seafood industry
reached new lows and seafood’s status as healthy food is
questioned.

This led to a divided market characterised by the ‘death of the
middle’ - where there was a small niche of premium seafood with
quality and origin as the main selling point, and mass
undifferentiated products sold on the basis of value.
buying of seafood to save money”
30 October, 2017
“Supermarket launches own
brand of organic salmon”
17 August, 2016
©
2014
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry
Functional
Scenario 3: “Cheap Calories”
People and Consumers
Unmanaged
42
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood
Headlines from the future
“School serves ‘mutant fishfingers’ to children”
25 June, 2021
“Food safety groups reveals that
smoked salmon claimed to be
from Scotland is actually from
China” 27 July, 2015

The demand for higher volumes of cheaper seafood meant that
exports from emerging markets increased and canned seafood of
unknown origin became a more common sight on supermarket
shelves.

The rapid industrialisation of aquaculture globally meant that
regulation was often ignored, as it was perceived to be a burden
on business.

In the race to produce higher volumes of cheaper seafood, the
industry used cheap labour and genetic modification in both
fishmeal and in seafood – a fast developing technology that
regulation could not come up with.

As the similarities between mass aqua farming and mass poultry
farming became more pronounced, NGOs increasingly started
targeting the industry on the basis of seafood welfare, likening
aquaculture to battery poultry farms.

Sensationalised exposes of the industry meant that a growing
niche of consumers called for retailers to stock certified ‘free
range seafood’.
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry
Functional
Scenario 3: “Cheap Calories”
Industry and Regulators
Unmanaged
©
2014
43
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood
After horse meat has been found in
European frozen food products in
2013, all food brands had to face
consumers mistrust. To get this trust
back, French seafood company Fleury
Michon has integrated full transparency
into their processes. Fleury Michon
recently launched a communication
plan called “#ComeAndCheck” to
achieve transparency.
Christian Rach, successful German TV
cook uncovered a fraud on his
documentary. In his TV show, Rach
usually helps troubled restaurants to
get back on their feet and advises
them. In June 2013 he was able to
uncover that the origin of the “Büsum
North Sea Prawns” was lied about. The
prawns were actually from aqua farms
in Indonesia.
According to a new report by
the Environmental Justice
Foundation (EJF), a British-based
human rights charity, the Thai fishing
and seafood industry, worth $7
billion annually, involves
considerable exploitation of
trafficked migrant workers, most
from neighbouring Myanmar and
Cambodia.
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry
Functional
Scenario 3: “Cheap Calories”
Glimpses of the future today - INDUSTRY NEWS
Unmanaged
©
2014
44
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood
Value fish spreads
The Swiss brand Coraya offers
fish sandwich spreads in
Germany. Germans passion for
seafood products has also
entered the breakfast meal.
Since smoked salmon is often
part of the first meal of the day,
but is rather expensive, these
sandwich spreads are not only
convenient in terms of time
management and taste, but
allow a taste of salmon every
morning.
Breaded ‘mystery’ seafood
Since fish fingers have a
controversial image nowadays
(regarding their ingredients),
companies try to create a
different image for them. Now
they are directly speaking to the
kids, by changing the shape
and making it more attractive
for children. The seals like the
WWF are speaking to parents
as well.
Seafood snacks
The Swiss brand Coraya
offers one of the few seafood
snacking products found in
Germany of seafood sticks
that come with a variety of
flavoured dips
Shrimp flavoured
instant-noodles
Long a staple in China,
seafood flavoured instant
noodles have been
growing in developed
markets in Europe
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry
Functional
Scenario 3: “Cheap Calories”
Glimpses of the future today - PRODUCTS
Unmanaged
©
2014
45
Scenario 4: “Carefree Indulgence”
People want seafood that opens up new experiences and sensations, and they are willing to
pay for it. In this world, the seafood industry adds value by finding ways to source exotic
species and creating products that tantalise the senses.
“I love my seafood and it gives
me a thrill trying new things,
but I don’t really care where it
comes from”
©
2014
46
Scenario 4: “Carefree Indulgence”
People and Consumers
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry

The decline of fish stocks over previous decades meant that as
seafood became rarer, it became more of a luxury – a food that
consumers sought out because of its value as a symbol of social
status.

A global emerging middle class eager to have new experiences
and display their newly gained social status catalysed growing
consumer interest in ‘exotic’ seafood.

For the consumers that knew seafood was endangered, its
consumption was a guilty pleasure. However, many others were
simply not aware of the mismanagement of the industry due to
mislabelling.

The high cost of seafood meant that there was strong interest
among consumers in making products ‘go further’ by adding
sauces etc. As a result the industry shifted from marketing by
origin to marketing by recipe.

The desire for seafood that denotes status meant organic
continued to be in demand, but the organic products on offer
contained as little raw material as possible and in some cases
organic products were subject to fraud and mislabelling.
Experiential
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood
Headlines from the future
“The latest exotic seafoods
spotted on supermarket shelves
around the world”
18 October, 2017
“Poll shows people feel more
guilty eating seafood than they
do chocolate”
4 April, 2016
Unmanaged
©
2014
47
Scenario 4: “Carefree Indulgence”
Industry and Regulators
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry
Experiential
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood

As international disputes over fishing rights became more
frequent due to the changing migration patterns of fish caused by
warmer sea temperatures, it became more difficult for the
industry to collaborate in ensuring regulatory compliance.
Headlines from the future

This meant that the growing consumer desire for exotic seafood
helped fuel the expansion of often illegal seafood products run by
organised food cartels.

This increased fraudulent practices such as cheaper species
being mis-sold as high value species.
“I thought I was buying lobster but
it turned out to be a pumped
prawn!”
7 January 2016

In order to compete with the black market and meet demand for
more experiential offerings, the seafood industry therefore
focused on developing the aquaculture of exotic species.

The continued high cost of raw materials prompted greater
industry innovation in using technology to enhance the flavours
and sensations of seafood.

However poor aquaculture conditions and the increased use of
additives such as polyphosphate injections and colourings led to
a rise in incidence of seafood poisoning.
“Man jailed for eating endangered
caviar”
27 March 2019
Unmanaged
©
2014
48
Scenario 4: “Carefree Indulgence”
Glimpses of the future today - INDUSTRY NEWS
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry
The Economist has recently reported a
rise in food crime, where organised
criminals have diversified into new
areas of activity including food. The
organised groups were reported as
mislabelling seafood and selling it on at
higher prices. Europol were cited as
saying that these organised gangs,
previously focused on selling drugs,
have switched to food as it is seen as
more profitable.
The rise of food tourism has been
reported on recently as a result of
growing ‘foodie cultures’, with lifestyle
magazines setting out new food
destinations. The Huffington Post
recently published an article on where
to get exotic types of seafood such as
sea slugs and seahorses – noting that
there are now more seafood
connoisseurs eager to travel distances
to find these exotic species.
Experiential
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood
Rakuten, Japan's Amazon.com, earned
the title as the world's leading online
trader of elephant ivory and whale
products, thanks to a report by an
influential UK NGO called Environmental
Investigation Agency (EIA). Rakuten have
recently announced they will stop selling
whale meat products.
Unmanaged
©
2014
49
Scenario 4: “Carefree Indulgence”
Glimpses of the future today - PRODUCTS
Nature of resource management by the seafood industry
The Amazon of seafood
Blue Sea Labs – a US based
seafood company – has been
referred to as ‘the Amazon of
seafood’ in that it serves a fast
growing consumer base who
want specialties such as sea
urchins (that they are unable to
get locally) shipped directly to
their homes. By connecting
consumers directly to fish
producers the company is a
response to the growing desire
for exotic species, but
excluding the ‘shady
middlemen’.
Seafood for all dishes
Spanish fish and seafood
brand Krissina, taps into
the ready-to-cook
(processed, value added)
category, offering a
seafood-based spread that
can be used for preparing
cold starters or can be
used as a filling for hot
recipes, like filled red
peppers, etc. These kind of
products are new,
convenient and can be
used in a series of different
contexts.
Experimental sushi
For its new 2014 collection,
Sushi Shop in France
teamed up with the most
rewarded (Michelin stars)
in the world to design 7
new top-notch recipes
which goes along with the
premium positioning of the
brand. For example, the
Joel Robuchon Box sold
29.9€ is made of 6
California Hawaïan rolls, 6
crispy lobster spring rolls, 6
California spicy ebi rolls
and 2 snacked scallop
sushi.
Experiential
The prevailing consumer attitude towards the benefits of seafood
Be safe, buy imports
Andes Premium Catch is
China’s first retail store
selling imported seafood to
open in Shanghai in 2012.
Growing concern with the
safety of domestic seafood
is fuelling interest in
imported seafood, and the
company offers free
cooking classes in
response to the growth of
home cooking that food
safety scandals has
catalysed.
Unmanaged
©
2014
50
The Opportunity Platforms for Growth
©
2014
51
Exploring opportunities for Irish seafood
The next section outlines a number of different
opportunities for the Irish Seafood industry in the
next five to 10 years, under five
platforms for growth: Building Trust Chains,
Optimising Health for All, New Life for Long Life,
New Value in Old Places, and Modular Mealtimes
These platforms and the opportunities within them have
emerged from an analysis of the key trends and
uncertainties shaping the future of the seafood industry,
and how they might combine to shape the future.
Some of the opportunities can be leveraged by companies
now. Others are further out, and require more investment
or engagement.
The longer term opportunities are more likely to depend on
the speed of technological change in the sector and
companies’ ability to harness it.
©
2014
52
What are Opportunity Platforms?
The scenarios give us an outline of the range of
certainties and uncertainties shaping the industry
globally, and an idea of how consumer preferences
may evolve in relation to seafood.
In order to be useful however, the Irish seafood sector
needs to be able to connect these scenarios to
opportunities for them to innovate and add value.
The following ‘Opportunity Platforms’ are therefore themes
which illustrate opportunities for the Irish seafood sector that
work across more than one scenario, taking into account a
range of uncertainties.
Rather than banking on only one scenario and hoping that it
will dominate, it is wise to invest in opportunities that are
relevant across two or more scenarios.
This section sets out possible Opportunity Platforms likely to
work across the future scenarios. They are designed to act as
‘springboards’ for Irish seafood companies to identify
opportunities relevant to their own products.
©
2014
53
Platforms for growth
Building trust chains
Optimising health for all
New life for long life
New value in old places
Modular mealtimes
©
2014
54
Building trust chains:
Platform overview
KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Beyond the label
Going beyond the product label to tell provenance
stories through technology
Open sourcing
Opening up the supply chain to educate through
data
With trust in companies and manufacturers low and information
access expanding, earning consumer trust in seafood is needed in
order to unlock all other opportunities.
Growing awareness of fraud has damaged consumer trust in supply
chains, with the seafood industry feeling knock on effects from
scandals in other categories. The effect of the equine DNA scandal
showed how damaged trust can ripple through the whole supply
chain.
There is therefore an imperative for the seafood industry to build
‘trust chains’ – not just building trust at the point of purchase, but
seeing it running throughout the supply chain.
Part of the solution here is to provide greater transparency around
supply chains – though in an information saturated world,
consumers may feel overloaded.
Moments of trust
Building moments of trust throughout the path to
purchase
©
2014
Providing curated information and meaningful proxies will help
consumers navigate this information-rich marketplace. From family
to peer networks, manufacturers to retailers, NGOs to local
businesses, there is an opportunity for the seafood industry to
build trust across all touch points.
55
Building trust chains:
Positioning on future scenarios
‘Building trust chains’ will be important across all future scenarios, as without trust the industry will find it
difficult to secure and deepen consumer engagement. Declining levels of consumer trust make the rebuilding of
trust and assurance an industry priority.
©
2014
56
Beyond the label
Going beyond the product label to tell provenance stories through technology
©
2014
57
Beyond the label
Early indicators
Building trust at the point of purchase remains critical.
As people spend more time researching products instore before purchasing, the product label needs to do
more than just give basic information but without
overloading them.
As a result, consumers are looking for labelling
solutions that help them understand and prioritize
information as a way to save time and reclaim
headspace.
The growing use of mobile in shopping is opening an
opportunity for producers to use their products as
platforms - by meshing together physical product
packaging and mobile technologies to embed virtually
told stories into tangible products.
In food service, recent innovations such as edible QR
codes give diners access to information straight from
the plate.
©
2014
Edible QR codes
Harney’s sushi restaurant uses QR
codes printed on rice paper stuck to
sushi. Diners can scan them to see
the state of a species’ global stock,
where their fish was hooked, and
even the actual faces of the
fishermen behind the catch
In 2014 66% of consumers globally say that
they are increasingly likely to spend time
researching a product before making a
purchase, up from 60% in 2011
Source: The Futures Company, Global MONITOR
Information-synthesising technology
Fooducate allows consumers to scan the
barcode of food products to access a
dashboard that provides food with a grade
according to its healthiness, and highlights
important information about the product,
such as the presence of certain ingredients.
58
Beyond the label
What might this mean for seafood in the future?
• Going beyond the product label to tell provenance stories about seafood
through technology by: embedding digital information onto physical
products that can be scanned with mobile technologies; creating
interactive trust certifications.
• Ensuring there is better integration between online communications and
physical seafood products in retail (both in store and online) and food
service environments.
Emerging opportunities
In the shorter term
•
©
Using physical attributes of seafood products
unique to Ireland (e.g. pale colour of smoked
salmon) as markers of trust and quality.
2014
In the longer term
•
Packaging embedded with Augmented
Reality technologies to tell enhanced
provenance stories.
•
Labelling integrated with online mapping
services to visualise product origin.
•
Embedding seafood product packaging with
interactive Origin Green labelling.
59
Open sourcing
Opening up the supply chain to educate through data
©
2014
60
Open sourcing
Early indicators
The increase in open data and ‘big data’ will impact on
food industries as consumers expect more companies
to make their data available and their sourcing more
transparent.
With supply chains become increasingly digitised and
embedded with data collection technology, it is possible
to open up this data up to consumers and visualise it as
an alternative means of telling provenance stories.
A growing set of methods are available for tracking
where goods come from, across a wide variety of
consumer products. Electronic tracking of seafood will
increasingly become a means of guaranteeing product
provenance, and building trust throughout the supply
chain.
Tracking product to source
Following the BP oil spills, the Gulf Seafood
Trace initiative was launched in 2012 to
enable consumers to track seafood
products. The programme offers Gulf
seafood businesses supply chain electronic
traceability and marketing tools such as data
analysis to restore consumer trust
McKinsey research has found that more than
$3 trillion a year in additional value could be
generated globally as a result of open data
Source: McKinsey 2013, Open Data: Unlocking Innovation and
performance with liquid information
Real time updates
M&J Seafoods were the first
seafood provider to offer their
customers ‘catch of the day’
messages via Twitter and
MMS allowing customers to
order seafood as soon as it
arrives into port
©
2014
61
Open sourcing
What might this mean for seafood in the future?
• Opening up the supply chain to educate customers and consumers by
using traceability data to tell the ‘biography’ of the seafood product –
demystifying the seafood on consumers’ plates.
• Greater expectation of efficiency in the industry as more companies use
real-time data to manage supply chain risks as well as brand and
reputational risks.
Emerging opportunities
In the shorter term
©
•
Use traceability data to create reliable audit trails
for products and guarantee that seafood is not
captured using illegal, unreported and
unregulated methods.
•
Following seafood through the supply chain to
improve customer service by quickly being able to
provide information requested.
2014
In the longer term
•
Open up supply chain data for customers
and consumers to explore – in the same way
that there has been growth in data
journalism, there is likely to be opportunity
in data storytelling.
•
Incorporate real-time data into online
marketing communications.
62
Moments of trust
Building moments of trust throughout the path to purchase
©
2014
63
Moments of trust
Early indicators
As scandals from the BSE crisis in the 1990s to the
recent equine DNA controversy demonstrate, trust
damaged in one part of the supply chain has knock on
effects. Therefore companies across the supply chain
need to work together in building trust at each
consumer touch point, for example brands and retailers.
Producers capturing and farming seafood products
need to be able to pass information about the seafood
through the supply chain, ensuring that it is not lost as
this information is becoming more important to
consumers.
Passing this information down the supply chain and
communicating it with consumers at different points will
help build moments of trust.
Going behind the scenes
After horse meat has been found in
European frozen food products in 2013, all
food brands had to face consumers
mistrust. To get this trust back, Fleury
Michon has played full transparency on
their process, launching a communication
plan called “#ComeAndCheck”
Following the horsemeat scandal public trust in
the food industry dropped by 24% in the UK
Source: Which?, 2013
See it made
Coquille is a high end restaurant
in Shanghai serving raw fish and
shellfish from an open kitchen.
The setup allows for more
transparency and invites the
guests to experience every step
of the food journey.
©
2014
64
Moments of trust
What might this mean for seafood in the future?
• Rather than focusing solely at the point of purchase, the seafood
industry needs to build a solid foundation of trust across the whole
supply chain – thinking in terms of ‘trust chains’ to ensure trust is not
broken at any one point.
• Information flows across the supply chain that can be accessed by the
consumer at any point.
Emerging opportunities
In the shorter term
•
•
©
In the longer term
Using social networks not only as static
information portals but also as a means to
communicate real-time information about
production
•
Exploring business models that are direct to
the customer
•
Communicating how supply chains have
been shortened
Provide ‘behind the scene’ information on
farming and processing
•
Use of webcams and live streaming to show
consumers what is happening on the
farm/on the boat
2014
65
Market mapping for growth:
Building trust chains
Higher
importance
Decreasing levels of consumer trust in food
companies is a growing issue in many regions
of the world, particularly in markets that
experience frequent food scandals.
In emerging markets, low levels of trust in
local producers means that consumers
continue to look to foreign brands for
reassurance.
In developed markets, growing exports of
seafood from emerging markets means that
seafood risks becoming a ‘mystery’ product of
unknown origin. Differentiating through strong
promotion of origin will help.
High level of
dynamism
Low level of
dynamism
©
2014
Lower
importance
66
Optimising health for all
KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Competing with other proteins
Reframing seafood as a healthier substitute to
meat
Personalised nutrition
Targeting individual dietary needs and aspirations
through seafood
Sinless pleasure
Creating seafood experiences that deliver
moments of healthy pleasure
©
2014
A healthy lifestyle is increasingly an aspirational lifestyle, with good
health becoming a sign of success and progress. As a result food
choices are taking into greater account health and wellbeing
considerations.
There is a significant opportunity for seafood to deliver health
benefits for all – from those who have already invested in
maintaining healthy lifestyles, to those looking for an easy way to
make the first steps towards better health.
As health awareness grows and concepts of health evolve to
encompass ever more nuanced ideas such as ‘macrobiotics’ and
‘micronutrients’, demand for food with enhanced health benefits
will grow and raise the bar for the seafood category.
As health requirements become more specific, it will accelerate the
need for seafood to better target and reflect the specific health
aspirations of different consumer groups – for example the health
needs of older people, children, pregnant women etc.
Building a foundation of trust in both the health claims made by
seafood products and in guarantees of safety will be critical in
enabling the seafood industry to create value through health
optimisation.
67
Optimising health for all:
Positioning on future scenarios
The ‘Optimising health for all’ opportunity platform will add most value in the scenario where consumers
perceive the benefits of seafood to be largely functional. There is also opportunity to add value in the more
experiential value through products that deliver health benefits, although in this scenario the industry will need
to ensure that the health message does not detract from pleasurable enjoyment of seafood.
©
2014
68
Competing with other proteins
Reframing seafood as a healthier substitute to other protein sources
©
2014
69
Competing with other proteins
Early indicators
As incomes rise in emerging markets, protein
consumption is growing. There is therefore opportunity
for the seafood industry to create innovative products
that ‘blur’ the meat and seafood categories by
substituting seafood into products traditionally
associated with meat (e.g. sausages, meat balls,
burgers etc.)
Giving consumers the choice of an alternative option to
a meat product they already love will enable consumers
to take a first step to a healthier lifestyle – particularly
for consumers who are seeking to reduce their meat
consumption for health or environmental reasons, or
who want the benefits of seafood without the barriers.
Seafood burgers
‘Crabs are coming’ is a Moscow
fast casual restaurant that sells
crab burgers. This place is
promoted as a trendy place with
original product and healthy food.
According to FAO, world meat production is
anticipated to grow modestly in 2014 to 311.8
million tonnes, an increase of 3.3 million tonnes
or 1.1% compared with 2013. Meat prices
remain at historically high levels.
Source: FAO, Outlook 2014
Fish sausages
Universidad Politécnica de Valencia
has developed a new sausage
product made from the popular fish
dorada (bream). Bream has many
bones and so the university has
positioned the product for kids and
teenagers.
©
2014
70
Competing with other proteins
What might this mean for seafood in the future?
• The seafood industry must work harder at building stronger emotional
connections with consumers if it is to succeed in the face of growing
competition from the meat category.
• Leveraging this unique position can help strengthen perceptions of the
category, but regulations governing health claims are likely to continue to
create challenges for the industry.
Emerging opportunities
In the shorter term
©
•
Develop processed seafood products that
recreate traditional meat products, giving people
access to seafood that they may otherwise be
hesitant to try for fear of bones.
•
Position seafood as a ‘first step’ to a healthier
lifestyle through products that do not require
change in consuming behaviours.
2014
In the longer term
•
Partnering with meat companies to position
meat and seafood products in relation to soy
products, a potential threat to both
industries.
71
Personalised nutrition
Targeting individual dietary needs and aspirations through seafood
©
2014
72
Personalised nutrition
Early indicators
Demographic and lifestyle changes, combined with
improved understanding of individual food needs,
mean diets are becoming more diverse and the food
market more fragmented.
As a result concepts of health are evolving to take
into consideration the specific dietary needs of
specific demographic groups, creating an imperative
for food industries to move away from a ‘one size fits
all’ approach to health.
For the seafood category, this means profiling the
micronutrients of species and matching these to the
health needs of specific consumer groups.
The opportunity is focusing on demographic groups
growing in size (e.g. older people in developed
markets, teens in emerging markets) and health
concerns that are increasingly prevalent (e.g. obesity
and dementia).
©
2014
Bitsy’s Brainfood
On a mission to make healthy fun,
Bitsy's Brainfood is the ‘world's first
"smart" snack brand’ for kids
Diet services
Krissina brand offers a “Coach
de Krissina” service that allows
you to set up a personalized
fitness plan, and offers healthy
recipes based on fish and
seafood.
Printable protein
3D printing technologies have
started making a move into food,
creating personalised meals.
‘Smoothfood’ can create custom
plates personalised to individual
needs for specific portion sizes
and vitamins
73
Personalised nutrition
What might this mean for seafood in the future?
• Seafood can be given new relevance in people’s lives by addressing the
specific heath needs people are increasingly concerned with and
appealing to new consumer groups that have previously been
disengaged with the seafood category.
• At a category level, seafood needs to take significant steps to reflect the
link between food and the way people express identity (particularly as
other categories are raising their game here), in an authentic and
meaningful way.
Emerging opportunities
In the shorter term
©
•
Profiling the micronutrients associated with
particular seafood species and matching these to
the growing health needs of specific consumer
groups in communications.
•
Building awareness of health benefits that go
beyond Omega 3.
2014
In the longer term
•
Developing business models based on
providing services that enable people to
receive personalised health
recommendations, and calculate how
seafood products contribute to their
personal health requirements.
74
Sinless pleasure
Creating seafood experiences that deliver moments of healthy
pleasure
©
2014
75
Sinless pleasure
Early indicators
In the past few years, as many people have had to learn
to live with less money and far greater uncertainty, the
focus seems to have been on small experiences that
punctuate everyday life, and provide boosts to body and
spirit.
Seafood jelly shots
Big Prawn Company’s alcoholic
seafood jelly shots, inspired by
the worms in the Mexican
liquor mescal
As a result consumers will continue to seek out simple
pleasures and moments of play to break their stressful
routines.
There is therefore opportunity for the seafood industry
to create products that deliver ‘guilt free’ pleasure and
indulgence to everyday life– through both reassurance
of the health benefits and sustainability credentials.
In 2014, 56% of consumers said that they are
always looking for new experiences and
sensations that will liven up their everyday
activities, up from 50% in 2011
Source: The Futures Company, Global MONITOR
Fun first
Seahood is a restaurant chain in China
that mixes American-style ‘fun’ eating and
Chinese tastes, aimed at younger people.
There is no menu, instead you get a
‘seafood market’ which is a basket full of
fresh – and fairly low quality - seafood.
Customers go for the experience rather
than the food.
©
2014
76
Sinless pleasure
What might this mean for seafood in the future?
• The sensory and aesthetic characteristics of seafood will become more
important. Seafood products that create enhanced sensory experiences
through new and different textures, appearances and tastes could ‘add
value’ to everyday consumption.
• Over the last decade the communications about seafood have educated
consumers about health benefits. Going forward, the industry could
reposition sustainable seafood as a pleasurable food that people should
not feel guilty about eating.
Emerging opportunities
In the shorter term
©
•
Create seafood products that deliver sensory
experiences that tantalise and thrill as the main
event.
•
Develop seafood products that offer everyday
indulgence that come with health benefits that in
no way compromise on taste.
2014
In the longer term
•
Explore the possibility of incorporating
technological innovation such as molecular
gastronomy that enable consumers to bring
‘big experiences’ into the home.
77
Market mapping for growth:
Optimising health for all
Higher
importance
Health is becoming a bigger priority globally
but the specific health concerns top of mind
varies by region.
In emerging markets, health is closely
associated with food safety. However as
lifestyle diseases and demographic change
occurs, issues such as obesity will become
more of a focus.
In developed markets, the focus is
increasingly on preventative health as
populations age and there is growing
expectation that brands will help people to
actively manage their health.
High level of
dynamism
Low level of
dynamism
Lower
importance
©
2014
78
New life for long life
KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Laboured love
Redefining long-life seafood as a smart shortcut
for busy gourmands
Enhancing goodness
Using preservation technologies to lock in and
maximise the benefits of fresh
There is a significant opportunity for the seafood category to
reposition long-life products, such as frozen and canned seafood,
as sophisticated shortcuts to fresh by using new innovations to
ensure there is no compromise.
To ensure continued relevance in people’s lives, frozen and canned
products will need to overcome barriers to immediate consumption
and to actively challenge outdated attitudes towards long-life.
The key to success in unlocking this opportunity lies in promoting
long-life seafood as having distinct benefits in its own right through
the nutritional enhancement of cutting edge preservation
technology.
Instant cool
Making new trends instantly accessible to all
©
As consumer lifestyles change and adapt to increasing time
pressures, the need for convenient solutions will continue to be top
of mind. However, ‘convenience’ too often suffers from association
with ‘compromise’ – a compromise on nutritional quality, freshness
and taste.
2014
Demonstrating the provenance of long-life seafood products and
improving their traceability will enable the category rebuild trust.
79
New life for long life:
Positioning on future scenarios
The ‘New life for long life’ opportunity platform has the potential to add value across all scenarios, but will need
to be driven by the industry actively reframing frozen and canned seafood as either offering unique health
benefits or improving the experience offered by long life products in order to create greater consumer
engagement with the category
©
2014
80
Laboured love
Redefining long-life seafood as a smart shortcut for busy gourmands
©
2014
81
Laboured love
Early indicators
The competing pressures of work and home life means
that it can be difficult for people to find the time to
cook, and as working patterns become more or less
standardised, time pressures are likely to continue
increasing.
However at the same time, food cultures around the
world are becoming more sophisticated with the rise in
‘foodie cultures’ and celebrations of good food.
There is therefore a real need to provide people with
elegant shortcuts that do not compromise on quality.
For the seafood industry, there is significant opportunity
to reinvigorate frozen and canned seafood products as
‘shortcuts’ that streamline the preparation process
while still enabling people to feel that they have created
a meal from scratch – a product that feels fresher as a
result.
Pre—prepared paella, Spain
Paella in Spain is usually
prepared fresh at home, but this
new 1,2,3 Paella from Delfin is
targeted to consumers who need
everything ready-to-cook.
“Nestlé is taking an “if you can’t beat ’em, join
’em” approach to frozen food, encouraging
shoppers to add a fresh item like a salad or a
piece of fruit to a frozen entrée”
Source: The Packer, ‘Nestle promoting fresh produce
through frozen meal programme,’ 2013
Meal assemblies
“Happy cooking” project in Russia,
you order a cooking set from different
categories – an easier way of
preparing a meal
©
2014
82
Laboured love
What might this mean for seafood in the future?
• The seafood industry can lead the reframing of frozen and canned
products in the convenience market by giving these products a new role
as shortcuts in scratch cooking.
• This means diversifying long-life products away from fully prepared meals
towards deconstructed menus, prepared ingredients and meal
accompaniments that require a little bit of labour.
• Focusing on the meal occasion rather than just the ingredients will also
help create deeper engagement with frozen seafood products
Emerging opportunities
In the shorter term
•
©
Produce more frozen seafood that comes with
frozen ingredients, ready to be self-assembled
into a meal
•
Proliferating the degrees of preparedness of
frozen seafood (pre-washed, -chopped, measured, -parboiled, etc.)
•
Frozen seafood that comes with a high standard
of culinary preparation such as flame-searing
2014
In the longer term
•
Packaging solutions that re-create the
experience of ‘scratch cooking from frozen’
•
Make sustainably sourced more exotic
species more accessible by offering them
frozen in store and online for home delivery
83
Enhancing goodness
Using preservation technologies to lock in and maximise the benefits
of fresh
©
2014
84
Enhancing goodness
Early indicators
‘Fresh is best" has long been the mantra when it comes
to choosing the healthiest foods. However freezing can
help to preserve natural goodness, an idea that is now
widely when it comes to certain foods such as frozen
peas.
With the innovation in flash freezing technologies on
board boats, there is significant opportunity for the
seafood industry to challenge outdated perceptions of
frozen by emphasising the unique properties of the
freezing processes that ‘lock in’ the nutritional power of
the seafood – making health more accessible to all.
Growing sustainability concerns means that over the
next decade, the message that frozen seafood can be
better than for the environment than fresh-caught (in
that it can be freighted overland rather than by air) is
likely to resonate more strongly.
Salmon Steamers
This convenient microwaveable
meal comes in three varieties. All
you do is steam two pouches
together in microwave for 3
minutes
The American Frozen Food Institute and the
Frozen Food Roundtable are pooling their might
to launch a campaign that could reach up to
$50 million in spending to counter the negative
health perceptions of the frozen category
Source: AdAge, 2013
Frozen sushi
Yedo launches a new
paradoxical range. Indeed, if
sushi are often praised for
the freshness of the
products, they have decided
to sell it frozen
©
2014
85
Enhancing goodness
What might this mean for seafood in the future?
• Investment in cryogenic freezing capabilities on land will increasingly
become a source of competitive advantage, as the quality that comes
with flash freezing offers a significant value add and takes pressure
off for fast and expensive distribution.
• The seafood industry needs to work harder at communicating the
health and environmental benefits of freezing and be proud of the
benefits it offers – for example positioning seafood products that are
frozen within hours of harvesting as having a guaranteed freshness
compared to the ‘ambiguously labelled’ fresh seafood on offer.
Emerging opportunities
In the shorter term
©
•
Developing fresh frozen product ranges with
freshness guarantees
•
Frozen shellfish that produce no water when
defrosted to counter perception of frozen with low
quality
2014
In the longer term
•
Using new freezing technologies to produce
sashimi grade frozen seafood with
enhanced sustainability credentials
•
Packaging solutions such as cook in the
bags that enable frozen seafood to be
perfectly steamed – leveraging the health
benefits associated with steaming
86
Instant cool
Making new trends instantly accessible to all
©
2014
87
Instant cool
Early indicators
The rise of food images shared on social networks such
as Instagram, often with the accompanying hash tag
#foodporn, indicates the extent to which food has
become a social currency among young people.
The sharing of images showing the latest food trends in
cosmopolitan cities like New York and Singapore is
enabling food trends to be created and spread much
more rapidly.
This means that for long-life seafood products there is
an opportunity to update their image by becoming more
closely associated with the latest food trends and fads
emerging from foodie hot-spots around the world –
making those trends more accessible to people living
outside the trendy hot-spots.
Salmon jerky
Wild Salmon Jerky made from USA
chum salmon. Fillets are cut,
brined, and dried. Available in
original, teriyaki and black pepper
flavours.
“In California we are seeing a proliferation of
seafood start-ups - we’re close to Silicone Valley
and close to the ocean. My favourite is Blue Sea
Labs – they are the Amazon of frozen seafood,
with a fast growing consumer base.”
Expert interview, Monica Jain, seafood consultant
Frozen pulled pork buns
Big City snacks create frozen
meals inspired by New York food
trends – in this case a pulled
pork bun
©
2014
88
Instant cool
What might this mean for seafood in the future?
• The seafood industry will need to become more responsive to fastmoving food trends and fads – particularly as other categories up
their game.
• In the same way that fashion companies such as Zara have become
adept as reducing the time it takes to bring catwalk designs to the
high street, the seafood industry will need to optimise its supply
chains to do the same.
Emerging opportunities
In the shorter term
©
•
More effective industry based tracking of food
trends
•
Making frozen products more ‘cool’ by creating
freeze-able/long life versions of new street food
from foodie hotspots around the world
•
Making products more ‘photo friendly’ by
improving the design and aesthetics of frozen
and long life products
2014
In the longer term
•
Explore partnerships with lifestyle brands
outside of the food category – for example
sports or music – to tie in with broader
trends
89
Market mapping for growth:
New life for long life
Higher
importance
Urbanisation and the rise of women entering
the workplace in emerging markets is driving
the need for convenience, which is a
significant opportunity for frozen and canned
food – although in markets like China
traditionally dominated by fresh markets. the
industry will need to work harder to
communicate the positive benefits of long-life.
In more developed markets, convenience
needs are well established, and shortcuts that
enable faster scratch cooking will become
more important in future. Here the focus of
the industry must be on overcoming out-dated
perceptions of long-life foods.
High level of
dynamism
Low level of
dynamism
Lower
importance
©
2014
90
Finding new value in old places
KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Reinventing recipes
Placing the emphasis on offcuts as ingredients,
rather than as products
Functional alchemy
Developing health enhancing nutraceuticals from
seafood offcuts
Beyond seafood
Breathing new life into old traditions
©
2014
As awareness of environmental challenges grows, manufacturers,
retailers and consumers are placing greater focus on the careful
management of scarce resources. No longer a sign of thrift, doing
more with less is becoming a badge of pride for those who wish to
demonstrate their commitment to responsible living.
For the seafood industry, rising energy prices means that supply
chains will need to drive down wastage – and there is significant
opportunity to create new value from by-products and offcuts
previously dismissed as waste.
For consumers, growing interest in scratch cooking is creating
deeper connections with food. Just as there has been a surge of
interest in ‘nose to tail’ meat eating, there is opportunity for
seafood industry to awaken consumer interest by encouraging
greater experimentation with forgotten species.
While this is likely to require investment in consumer education, it
has the potential to redefine the resource footprint of the category
while reconnecting people to the food that they eat.
91
Finding new value in old places:
Positioning on future scenarios
The ‘Finding new value in old places’ opportunity platform has potential to add value in the scenarios where
consumer attitudes towards seafood are primarily functional. Driving commerciality here can drive the industry
to better manage limited resources in order to extract greater value from by-products that would otherwise go to
waste
©
2014
92
Reinventing recipes
Extracting the essence of seafood to reinvent recipes
©
2014
93
Reinventing recipes
Early indicators
The by-products of processing are often wasted or sold
for low value due to the difficulty associated with selling
products made from anything classed as ‘waste’ - the
negative cultural ‘baggage’ that comes with it puts
consumers off.
However the growing desire to reconnect with food,
coupled with new social stigmas around food wastage,
means that there is an opportunity for the seafood
industry to promote extracting value from offcuts as a
sustainable solution.
In order to add value for consumers, offcuts can be
used as ingredients that revive and reinvent traditional
recipes associated with an earlier age when people
were naturally more connected to their food – creating a
seafood equivalent of ‘nose to tail’ cuisine.
In addition food additives made from seafood offcuts
can make recipes and products in entirely different
categories healthier.
©
2014
Squid ink black pudding
Squid-ink-and-apple black pudding—
a twist on the traditional sausage
but made without the pork blood
Globally, around four billion metric tonnes of food per
annum are produced. Yet, due to poor practices in
harvesting, storage and transportation, as well as
market and consumer wastage, it is estimated that 3050% (or 1.2-2 billion tonnes) of all food produced never
reaches a human stomach.
Source: Institute of Mechanical Engineers ‘Waste Not, Want Not’
Mussel powder
The powder can be used to
enhance the taste of seafood
dishes and sauces, and also with
poultry, meat and vegetables
94
Reinventing recipes
What might this mean for seafood in the future?
• Thinking in terms of recipes rather than products and educating
consumers about the different ways they can reduce waste in their
own preparations as part of a sustainable lifestyle
• Communicating the environmental benefits of using offcuts in terms
of waste reduction is likely to increase consumer engagement with
the category.
Emerging opportunities
In the shorter term
©
•
Current market examples of using offcuts are
limited to products such as fish pie mixes and
value range trimmings.
•
This can be extended by modernising traditional
recipes with seafood offcuts – such as black
pudding
2014
In the longer term
•
Extracting proteins and oils from offcuts that
can be used as additives in other food
ingredients, making non-seafood recipes
healthier
95
Functional alchemy
Extracting the vital essence of seafood from offcuts
©
2014
96
Functional alchemy
Early indicators
Rising consumer interest in nutraceuticals and
cosmeceuticals as a concern around health prevention
and wellbeing grows means that there is potential for
the seafood industry to extract goodness from offcuts
for use in functional products that fall outside of the
traditional seafood category.
The nutraceuticals and cosmeceuticals market has
seen rapid growth over the last decade and there is
growing R&D investment in these industries.
However the risk is that other industries – for example
FMCG companies producing supplements and
cosmetics - claim the value that can be derived from
seafood and marine processing rather than the seafood
industry.
Beyond Omega 3
Supplements on the market are
going ‘beyond Omega 3’ to other
marine benefits such as
antioxidants
One of the fastest growing industries in the world is the
nutritional supplement group, or more broadly known as
Vitamins, Minerals and Supplements, or VMS.
Producing about $32 billion in revenue for just
nutritional supplements alone in 2012, it is projected to
double that by topping $60 billion in 2021
Source: Nutritional Business Journal
Krill partnerships
Avoca and Olympic Seafood have
formed a joint venture to produce krill
oil, allowing for a guaranteed supply.
The new venture, called Rimfrost,
combines Olympic Seafood’s
production of raw krill material with
Avoca’s extraction technology
©
2014
97
Functional alchemy
What might this mean for seafood in the future?
• Moving the seafood industry away from a simple “catch, pack and
ship” value-added approach to using fish components for food,
health and industrial applications
• Developing partnerships in the nutraceuticals, cosmeceuticals and
pharmaceutical industries
Emerging opportunities
In the shorter term
©
•
Supplying pharmaceutical companies with
offcuts for nutraceuticals and dietary
supplements
•
Functional foods and beverages enhanced with
seafood derived micronutrients’
2014
In the longer term
•
Development of products that help the body
attain optimal health to keep it ‘clean’ and
respond to modern day problems such as
stress or tiredness
•
Explore opportunities for nutraceuticals
containing seafood/marine extracts targeted
at young people
98
Beyond seafood
Unlocking the power of seafood by pairing with marine and land
‘superfoods’
©
2014
99
Beyond seafood
Early indicators
New research and growing investment in marine
biotechnology is fuelling interest in marine ingredients
such as seaweed that have previously been considered
niche and artisanal.
As marine biotechnology makes progress in unlocking
the benefits of seaweed, there is potential for the
seafood industry to heighten the nutritional advantage
of seafood by pairing it with marine ingredients.
In addition as consumers continue to seek out
“superfoods” with dietary benefits, there is an
opportunity to replace traditional accompaniments of
processed seafood – such as breadcrumbs – with
superfood substitutes such as seeds with high omega-3
content.
Pairings between seafood and marine/land superfoods
will help consumers to increase their micronutrient
intake while leveraging the popularity of foods like goji
berries and chia seeds to update the health image of
seafood.
©
2014
Seeded seafood
Alaska pollock fillets coated
with pumpkin seeded crumbs.
Pumpkin seeds provide
magnesium, zinc and plantbased omega-3s.
The global marine biotech market to grow at a CAGR of
3.82% over the period 2012-2016. One of the key
factors contributing to this market growth is the
increase in the demand for natural products. However,
high R&D costs could pose a challenge to the growth of
this market.
Source: PR Newswire
Seaweed snacks
Seaweed – increasing
labelled as a superfood – is
being bought to Western
markets as chips
100
Beyond seafood
What might this mean for seafood in the future?
• As consumers become more conscious of the nutritional properties
of marine ingredients such as algae, there is potential that these
products will compete with seafood – meaning that the seafood
industry needs to pre-emptively take advantage of its natural
association with non-animal marine ingredients
Emerging opportunities
In the shorter term
©
•
Deepen the connection with health by ‘fortifying’
seafood with other healthy ingredients – for
example substituting breadcrumbs with seeds.
•
Production of marine ingredients such as
seaweed.
2014
In the longer term
•
Producing algae for nutraceutical and
cosmeceuticals companies commercially.
101
Market mapping for growth:
Finding new value in old places
Higher
importance
Food waste is a growing issue in many regions
of the world, and in many markets the
problem originates in both the supply chain
and in consumers’ homes. The seafood
industry therefore can play a leading role in
reducing waste across the supply chain.
In emerging markets, making responsible
choices is less of a consumer priority as other
issues are often more pressing.
In developed markets, reducing food waste in
the home will become imperative, with
squeezed incomes forcing renewed attention
on the issue.
High level of
dynamism
Low level of
dynamism
©
2014
Lower
importance
102
Modular mealtimes
KEY OPPORTUNITIES
Portable seafood
Diversifying out-of-home and portable solutions by
blurring meal and snack formats
Clean experiences
Creating high engagement with seafood through
no contact preparation
Local customisation
Smaller households and new household types are creating new
needs for meal preparation, such as male single person
households where men are on average less engaged with cooking
and preparing traditional complete meals.
In addition flexible working patterns are breaking up routines and
traditional meal times, creating more opportunities for different
eating behaviours both in and out of the home. Snacking is starting
to take on some of the functional responsibilities and emotional
roles previously reserved for main meals, raising the bar for the
needs the seafood industry must meet.
This is creating an opportunity for seafood to ‘bridge the gap’
opening between meals and snacks, in-home and out of home.
Bringing into the home experiences usually reserved for restaurant
occasions will enable consumers enliven everyday eating. However
in order to be successful, the seafood industry must continue to
reduce the barriers to seafood - particularly preparation.
Providing universal building blocks for customising
to local tastes
©
2014
103
Modular mealtimes:
Positioning on future scenarios
The ‘Modular mealtimes’ opportunity platform has potential to add value across the scenarios by adapting
seafood products to changing food cultures globally and the evolving ways in which people eat. It has particular
potential in the scenario where consumer attitudes towards seafood are more experiential by ensuring that
experiences are both relevant and accessible to consumers
©
2014
104
Portable seafood
Diversifying out-of-home and portable solutions by blurring meal and
snack formats
©
2014
105
Portable seafood
Early indicators
Consumers are increasingly fitting eating and drinking
around their work and leisure activities. Meals are
becoming lighter – or consist of snacks – and not
necessary consumed seated, while families are
increasingly eating separately rather than together.
Leading the trend are younger, urban consumer groups.
Limited-service restaurants (this includes fast-food and
fast-casual restaurants) will remain a key driving force
in the long-term movement towards eating out,
expanding offerings into breakfast and dinner.
As a result there is an opportunity for the seafood
industry to diversify its out of home options by blurring
between meals and snacks – creating meals that are
lighter and snacks that are more substantial.
Double Dippers
This innovative snack product
presents king prawns, sweet
chili sauce and prawn
crackers separately in a threecompartment tray.
Sweet and savory snacks and snack bars have
continued to grow strongly, despite the negative
impact of the recession; sweet and savory snacks
are forecast to grow in value to $135 billion globally
by 2017 (vs. $114 billion in 2012).
Source: Euromonitor International
Packaging you can eat
Wikicell’s edible packaging encloses
food or drinks in ways similar to how
nature protects a coconut or an
orange. Their Wiki Ice Cream can be
held in your hand, eaten like an apple
or poked with a straw and drunk like a
shake.
©
2014
106
Portable seafood
What might this mean for seafood in the future?
• The need to create alternatives to fast foods and snacks that are
‘better for you’, serving health and value-conscious consumers.
• Functional packaging that preserves/chills the product enabling it
to be consumed on impulse without having to be placed back in
the fridge.
• Supply fast casual foodservice with a greater variety of breakfast
items that are well matched with morning drinks (e.g. coffee, tea).
Emerging opportunities
In the shorter term
In the longer term
- Snack foods that incorporate flavors,
ingredients, and sensations associated with
“mealtime” foods/dishes
•
Innovation in packaging that enable the
product to be easily carried and chilled
throughout the day
•
Deeper exploration of the possibility for on
the go defrosting
- Casual, light meals that can be consumed at
any time of the day
©
2014
107
Clean experiences
Creating high engagement with seafood through no contact
preparation
©
2014
108
Clean experiences
Early indicators
Within the evolution of the mealtime there will be a
place for sit-down meals; eating together with friends
and family is a globally-shared pastime. As eating habits
become more flexible and informal, such occasions are
all the more heightened as experiences to be savored
and shared.
When people eat at home together, there is an
opportunity for the seafood industry to make this a
more social and memorable experience by focusing on
solutions that can be shared, or that re-create high end
or crafted experiences typically associated with
restaurants.
The paradox for seafood is that while this presents as
opportunity to create higher engagement with the
category, it must overcome the barriers to consumption
by using packaging in a way that requires low physical
engagement with the actual product.
Coffret Plateau de Fruits de Mer
Fresh cooked shellfish to
allow people to create
shellfish platters at home
As many as 55% of people worldwide still cook a
meal entirely from raw ingredients on a regular
basis (i.e. at least once a week), while 38% do
so using some pre-prepared ingredients.
Source: Euromonitor International
Self-cooking eggs
The eggs sits inside the
gogol mogol and when the
brown tab is pulled
chemicals inside react and
cook it in two minutes
©
2014
109
Clean experiences
What might this mean for seafood in the future?
• Need to continue removing the barriers to seafood consumption
(handling, preparation) through solutions that require minimal
contact with the raw product
• Focusing on formats that can be easily shared at the table and that
recreate the experience of dining out
• Creating restaurant quality pre-cooked meals that can be delivered
piping hot into the home
Emerging opportunities
In the shorter term
©
•
Pre-cooked products that are assembled as kits,
allowing for easy assembly at home, or fish preprepared as fillets or portions, for easy cooking
•
Boil in the bag solutions that contain whole
meals
•
Packaging that displays the product in an
aesthetically pleasing way so it can be served at
the table still in its packaging
2014
In the longer term
•
Heat sensitive packaging that cooks/heats
the product to perfection without the
consumer having to do anything
110
Local customisation
Providing universal building blocks that can be easily customised to
local tastes
©
2014
111
Local customisation
Early indicators
The flow of ideas, information, products and services
around the globe is growing in complexity; as a result
people from a wide variety of countries influence, and
are influenced by, an increasingly diverse array of
sources.
Factors such as cultural norms and religious beliefs will
play a significant role in informing food choice in
emerging markets, and these elements of local custom
and comfort will lead to the diversification of diets
globally.
This means that global brands will increasingly need to
customise their product offerings to local tastes. This is
opening an opportunity for the seafood industry to help
brands tailor their offerings by providing a seafood
‘base’ that can be easily and quickly customised with
other ingredients and sauces into any number of local
recipes, reflecting local cultures and tastes.
©
2014
Iglo Crunch N’ Fish
For the German market, Iglo have
taken sablefish is processed with a
coating made from fried potatoes –
resembling potato fritters, a popular
dish in Germany.
In 2014 56% of consumers globally say they
increasingly expect products to be customised
to suit their personal needs, up from 52% in
2010
Source: The Futures Company, Global MONITOR
Ready to enjoy
This ready to eat meal features high
quality Roasted Sweet Chilli Salmon
fillet with a Tomato and Chilli Chutney
all in one pack
112
Local customisation
What might this mean for seafood in the future?
• Communicating the provenance of the seafood ‘base’ as a trusted,
high quality product that local suppliers can then easily customise
with local ingredients
• Facilitating greater experimentation with new types of foods, cuisines
and flavours will help position seafood as an aspirational choice.
Emerging opportunities
In the shorter term
•
©
Modular products that come with a quality,
consistent seafood base with separate ‘packets’
of local ingredients e.g. creating an Irish base
with French accompaniments
•
Products that come ready prepared using
ingredients that speak to a local tradition
•
Products which put a local ‘twist’ on a seafood
base
2014
In the longer term
•
Exploring the food cultures of emerging
markets that are underrepresented by global
brands
•
Seafood products that enable consumers to
‘travel’ without leaving home e.g. that bring
Indonesian cuisine to European markets,
without the air-miles
113
Market mapping for growth:
Modular mealtimes
Higher
importance
Meal occasions are becoming more
fragmented globally, with eating on the
move and snacking expanding in markets
such as the US, UK and Ireland. This
represents a significant untapped
opportunity for the seafood category,
particularly in providing lighter and portable
options for fast casual foodservice.
Expectations for customisation are growing
particularly fast in emerging markets, and
so there is significant opportunity to provide
culturally relevant products in markets like
China.
High level of
dynamism
Low level of
dynamism
Lower
importance
©
2014
114
Context: Perspectives on the future of
packaging and retail
©
2014
115
The Opportunity Platforms will be influenced by developments in
retail and packaging
 While scenarios give a
sense of change and
platforms indicate
opportunities, there
are other contexts to
be considered.
 The final section
provides a brief
context on recent
developments in the
future of retail and
packaging.
©
2014
116
Packaging perspective
©
2014
117
Packaging perspective
Seafood packaging plays an important role in
reducing the barriers to seafood consumption.
Fundamentally, functionality is key. Packaging
that solves a problem and makes life easier wins
consumer loyalty. But to win, functional needs to
be visually stunning too - design ‘wow’ is
expected is increasingly expected as part of the
brand experience.
Increasingly, packaging has to work even harder
to cut through competition across all FMCG
categories – including seafood, particularly
because other FMCG companies are raising their
game when it comes to packaging.
The next section take a brief look at trends
around four functions of packaging: protection,
communication, convenience and minimising
impact.
©
2014
118
Protection and Communication:
Packaging perspectives
Protection
Preserving freshness is a key driver in seafood packaging
innovation and new types of packaging that enable longer
shelf-life while keeping products looking clean and fresh are
being released onto the market. For fresh seafood, solutions
that protect products sold at fresh fish counters and reduce
risk of leakage will help overcome barriers to fish
consumption.
Bring fresh back home, UK
London design agency Postler
Ferguson created a fresh fish pack
concept intended for use at fresh fish
counters. Constructed from a double
layered polyethylene, they are airtight,
resealable and can be filled with ice
for transport to keep fish fresh.
Enhanced preservation, Japan
The Ultra-Freshness Preservation
Freezing System launched by Mutsumi
Chemical Co in Japan uses an innovative
alternating current freezing method to
rapidly cool the product without
oxidization. The unique package design
that includes an electro conductive bag,
preserves food taste and texture.
©
2014
Communication
On-pack information, in addition to graphics, helps strengthen
the emotional connection between consumers and seafood; in
addition to reinforcing positive food values and lifestyle cues,
through on-pack provenance, recipes or ingredient stories.
New technologies such as QR codes and augmented realities
are being used to embed digital information and video onto
the physical packaging.
Augmented reality, UK
Heinz have trialled augmented reality
labelling so that when scanned with a
mobile, the label ‘comes to life’ as an
interactive recipe book with videos
showing how to prepare meals
Fun usage indicator, UK
Buddy Mulled wine comes with rings
around the bottle that indicate not only
how much you have consumed, but do this
in an entertaining way – in terms of how
drunk you will be after each mark.
119
Protection and Communication:
Packaging perspectives
Convenience
Convenience features such as easy opening, reclosability,
portability and one-handed use continue to drive foodpackaging innovation for a range of processed seafood. For
seafood, minimising the physical contact with the product and
cooking simultaneously with other ingredients are emerging
as dominant themes.
No hassle BBQ grilling, UK
Sira-Cook Supreme bags are foil
bags capable of withstanding
significant direct heat, allowing for
its use on a barbecue as well as in
an oven. The food will be tender,
retain all the juices and flavours,
and could be sold over the counter
in the pack
Reducing impact
There is a growing realisation that packaging innovation is
crucial to delivering sustainability for the food and beverage
sector, and it now forms a key part of many companies'
corporate social responsibility programmes. Packaging that
reduces waste and made from more sustainable materials
can ensure the industry keeps up.
Edible packaging, Brazil
Bob’s burger chain experimented with
edible packaging to entertain
customers, remove the need for an
extra disposal stage, and raise
awareness around packaging waste.
Dual cooking, Sweden
Biodegradable natural packaging, UK
Shieltronics microwave-shielding
technology makes it possible to control
the intensity of microwaves in a
microwave oven so that foods requiring
less microwave energy than others can
all be prepared in one convenient
cooking cycle lasting four to six minutes
Scientists at Nofima are participating
in a major EU-financed project in
which “active” packaging based on
raw materials from shrimp shell
improves and conserves food
products and after use the packaging
biodegrades
©
2014
120
Retail perspective
©
2014
121
The shopper journey is becoming increasingly
complex
The retail environment has become more
complicated as a result of the changing shopper
journey.
Understanding shoppers used to be simple. They
were understood as people who did things in a
linear way, progressing in a beeline from
awareness through to purchase. Prospects would
be ushered along a purchase funnel, arriving
along the journey at one or more ‘moments of
truth’ that led to purchase.
The purchase funnel
Awareness Familiarity Consideration Purchase
Loyalty
The purchase funnel has become a ‘purchase
fish,’ a complex world of feedback involving
research, multi- channel contact with the seller
and eventual purchase, as well as the testing of
opinion with an ever-larger group of other
consumers.
For seafood retailers this is creating an
imperative to re-engage shoppers at every point
of the shopper journey.
©
2014
122
Re-engaging shoppers
Retail theatre in-store
Omni-channel seafood
Everywhere commerce
As more shoppers buy online, retailers
are increasingly introducing initiatives
to make their brick and mortar stores
destinations in their own right.
The seafood sales have been slow to
move online. However more retailers
are moving into this space.
Mobile commerce means shoppers
increasingly expect to be able to buy
products at a time and place that is
convenient to them.
For example, Carrefour has opened
sushi stations in some of its larger
stores in France, where they prepare
sushi every day on the shop floor,
guaranteeing freshness.
There are signs that discount retailers
such as Lidl, who have traditionally
neglected the fresh fish offer, will be
introducing fish counters in an attempt
to deepen shopper engagement instore.
©
2014
For example internet commerce has
proven popular in China, where traffic
jams make travel arduous in sprawling
cities like Beijing. As a result Chinese
seafood company Seabridge has
switched from traditional retailers to
online stores like Taobao.
In the US, ILoveBlueSea, positioned as
the Amazon of seafood, provides a
‘long tail’ of exotic frozen seafood
delivered direct to customers’ homes.
Responding to this expectation, a
Barcelona-based fish shop, Ricard
Peixaderia, has installed a vending
machine to sell fresh fish around the
clock. It has been found to be a
convenient solution, especially for
younger consumers who do not like to
enter into traditional fish shops.
123
Thank you
Joe Ballantyne, Associate Director
(joe.ballantyne@thefuturescompany.com)