Establishment Risk Surface for Agrilius biguttatus
Establishment Potential Surface for Agrilius biguttatus (Fabricius.) Oak
Splendor Beetle.
Data format: Raster Dataset - ESRI GRID
File or table name: Establishment
Coordinate system: Albers Conical Equal Area
Theme keywords: : Forest Pest, Forest Insect, Invasive Species, Exotic, Oak Splendor Beetle, Agrilus biguttatus,
Establishment
Abstract: The Establishment Potential Surface for Agrilus biguttatus was produced for the Conterminous United
States (CUS) in 1 square kilometer (km²) units by the U.S. Forest Service, Forest Health Technology Enterprise
Team’s (FHTET) Agrilus biguttatus Steering Committee
FGDC and ESRI Metadata:
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•
•
•
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Identification Information
Data Quality Information
Spatial Data Organization Information
Spatial Reference Information
Entity and Attribute Information
Distribution Information
Metadata Reference Information
Metadata elements shown with blue text are defined in the Federal Geographic Data Committee's (FGDC) Content Standard for
Digital Geospatial Metadata (CSDGM). Elements shown with green text are defined in the ESRI Profile of the CSDGM. Elements
shown with a green asterisk (*) will be automatically updated by ArcCatalog. ArcCatalog adds hints indicating which FGDC elements
are mandatory; these are shown with gray text.
Identification Information:
Citation:
Citation information:
Originators: Downing, M.C.; F.H. Koch, R.A. Haack, F.J.; Sapio, W.D. Smith, D.M. Borchert. 2009.
National Risk map products and documentation for the Oak Splendor Beetle (Agrilus bigutatus). Ft.
Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team.
http://www.fs.fed.us/foresthealth/technology/invasives_agrilusbiguttatus_riskmaps.shtml
Title:
Establishment Potential Surface for Agrilus biguttatus
*File or table name: establishment (GRID)
*
Page 1 of 14
Establishment Risk Surface for Agrilius biguttatus
Publication date: 20100309
*Geospatial data presentation form: raster digital data
Series information:
Series name: Version 2.0
Issue identification: 20100309
Publication information:
Publication place: Fort Collins, Colorado
Publisher: Marla C. Downing
Online linkage:
http://www.fs.fed.us/foresthealth/technology/invasives_agriliusbiguttatus_riskmaps.shtml
Larger work citation:
Citation information:
Originators: Downing, M.C.; F.H. Koch, R.A. Haack, F.J.; Sapio, W.D. Smith, D.M. Borchert. 2009.
National Risk map products and documentation for the Oak Splendor Beetle (Agrilus bigutatus). Ft.
Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team.
http://www.fs.fed.us/foresthealth/technology/invasives_agrilusbiguttatus_riskmaps.shtml
Title:
Establishment Potential Surface for Agrilus biguttatus Oak Splendor Beetle.
Description:
Abstract:
The Establishment Potential Surface for Agrilus biguttatus was produced for the conterminous United
States in 1 square kilometer (km²) units by the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), Forest Health Technology
Enterprise Team’s (FHTET) Agrilus biguttatus Steering Committee; a multidisciplinary team with
participation from USFS, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), and North Carolina State
University (NCSU).
The Establishment component for A. biguttatus depicts where the pest could survive if it was introduced.
If the pest is known to have already been introduced, it may be desirable to prioritize locations where the
pest populations are most able to survive and may be expanding. In cases where it is unknown whether
the pest has been introduced the Establishment Component should be used in conjunction with the
Introduction component to develop a Susceptibility component for A. biguttatus. Supporting biological
information was gathered from USDA Forest Service Research Station experts, scientific literature, and the
Exotic Forest Pest (ExFor) website (North American Forest Commission, 2008)
http://spfnic.fs.fed.us/exfor/data/pestreports.cfm?pestidval=154&langdisplay=english
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Establishment Risk Surface for Agrilius biguttatus
References
North American Forest Commission Exotic Forest Pest Information System (NAFC-ExFor). 2008. Invasive
Species information system for pests with potential to cause significant damage to North American forest
resources. Available at:
http://spfnic.fs.fed.us/exfor/data/pestreports.cfm?pestidval=154&langdisplay=english
Purpose:
The product’s intended use in conjunction with the Introduction Potential Surface is to develop a
Susceptibility Potential Surface for A. biguttatus. Three datasets were used as parameters in the analysis
to determine the risk of establishment A. biguttatus poses in areas where it could survive:
1. Natural Host (i.e. Quercus spp from FIA) (Appendix A)
2. Drought (from 2007 – 2009) (Appendix B)
3. Urban Forest
Natural Host
Source: USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program.
Only species of oaks (Quercus spp) contained in the FIA were considered (Appendix A). The oak were
used as a presence absence data input. That is, oak, size, trees/acre, and basal area were not
considered.
Drought
Source: USDA Forest Service, Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET) (Appendix B).
Extreme late spring or early summer drought conditions from the years of 2007 – 2009 were considered.
These data were partitioned into 4 classes: 0 = No drought conditions were observed for all three years,
3 = drought conditions occurred for one year in the three year time period, 6 = drought conditions
occurred for two years in the three year time period, and 10 = drought conditions occurred for three
years in the three year time period.
Urban Forest
Source: USDA Forest Service, Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET).
The National Land Classification Data (NLCD) types: 1) Deciduous Forest or, 2) Mixed Forest was used as
our urban forest input subset type. These data were filtered by urban areas as described by the City Light
data set (Imhoff et al. 1997). The urban forest subset cell values were calculated by summing up the
total area, in percent, of the NLCD cell (native cell size of NLCD is 30 meters by 30 meters) occupied
within a 1 Km2 grid cell. Next, the data were partitioning into ten integer classes (1 – 10) using Jenks’
Natural breaks.
Process
Natural Host was modified by the drought producing a Disturbed Natural Host data set that contains
values of 1, 3, 6, and 10. The Urban Forest was combined with the Disturbed Natural Host via an overlay
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Establishment Risk Surface for Agrilius biguttatus
process. If Disturbed Natural Host was spatially coincident with Urban Forest the cell value was assigned
to the Disturbed Natural Host data set.
References
Imhoff, M. L., W. T. Lawrence, C. D. Elvidge, T. Paul, E. Levine, M. V. Privalsky, and V. Brown. 1997.
Using Nighttime DMSP/OLS Images of City Lights to Estimate the Impact of Urban Land Use on Soil
Resources in the United States. REMOTE SENS. ENVIRON. 59:105–117.
*Language of dataset: en
Time period of content:
Time period information:
Single date/time:
Calendar date: 20100309
Currentness reference:
publication date
Status:
Progress: Planned
Maintenance and update frequency: As needed
Spatial domain:
Bounding coordinates:
*West bounding coordinate: -131.718010
*East bounding coordinate: -50.048796
*North bounding coordinate: 54.232833
*South bounding coordinate: 17.231111
Local bounding coordinates:
*Left bounding coordinate: -2356278.5
*Right bounding coordinate: 2257721.5
*Top bounding coordinate: 3172335.3125
*Bottom bounding coordinate: 268335.3125
Place:
Place keywords: Conterminous United States
Place keyword thesaurus: Lower 48 States
Access constraints: None
Use constraints:
None
Point of contact:
Contact information:
Contact organization primary:
Contact person: Marla C. Downing
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Establishment Risk Surface for Agrilius biguttatus
Contact organization: Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET) Forest Health Protection
Contact position: FHTET Lead, Biological Scientist
Contact address:
Address type: mailing and physical address
Address:
2150 Centre Avenue, Bldg A, Suite 331
City: Fort Collins
State or province: Colorado
Postal code: 80526-1891
Country: USA
Contact voice telephone: 970-295-5843
Contact electronic mail address: mdowning@fs.fed.us
Hours of service: 9:00 AM - 5:00 PM MT
Data set credit:
Michael F. Tuffly
Steering Committee:
Marla C. Downing, FHTET Lead
Daniel M. Borchert, APHIS PPQ
Frank H. Koch, NCSU
Frank J. Sapio, USFS FHTET
Bill D. Smith, USFS SRS
Robert A. Haack USFS NRS
Roger D. Magarey NCSU
Security information:
Security classification: Unclassified
*Native dataset format: Raster Dataset
*Native data set environment:
Microsoft Windows XP Version 5.1 (Build 2600) Service Pack 2; ESRI ArcCatalog 9.1.0.722
Cross reference:
Citation information:
Originators: Downing, M.C.; F.H. Koch, R.A. Haack, F.J.; Sapio, W.D. Smith, D.M. Borchert. 2009.
National Risk map products and documentation for the Oak Splendor Beetle (Agrilus bigutatus). Ft.
Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team.
http://www.fs.fed.us/foresthealth/technology/invasives_agrilusbiguttatus_riskmaps.shtml
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Establishment Risk Surface for Agrilius biguttatus
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Spatial Reference Information:
Horizontal coordinate system definition:
Coordinate system name:
*Projected coordinate system name: NAD_1983_Albers
*Geographic coordinate system name: GCS_North_American_1983
Planar:
Map projection:
*Map projection name: Albers Conical Equal Area
Albers conical equal area:
*Standard parallel: 29.500000
*Standard parallel: 45.500000
*Longitude of central meridian: -96.000000
*Latitude of projection origin: 23.000000
*False easting: 0.000000
*False northing: 0.000000
Planar coordinate information:
*Planar coordinate encoding method: row and column
Coordinate representation:
*Abscissa resolution: 1000
*Ordinate resolution: 1000
*Planar distance units: meters
Geodetic model:
*Horizontal datum name: North American Datum of 1983
*Ellipsoid name: Geodetic Reference System 80
*Semi-major axis: 6378137.000000
*Denominator of flattening ratio: 298.257222
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Entity and Attribute Information:
Detailed description:
*Name: establishment
Entity type:
*Entity type label: establishment
*Entity type: Table
*Entity type count: 10
Entity type definition:
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Establishment Risk Surface for Agrilius biguttatus
Establishment Potential Surface for Agrilus biguttatus
Attribute:
*Attribute label: ObjectID
*Attribute alias: ObjectID
*Attribute definition:
Internal feature number.
*Attribute definition source:
ESRI
*Attribute
*Attribute
*Attribute
*Attribute
type: OID
width: 4
precision: 0
scale: 0
Attribute domain values:
*Unrepresentable domain:
Sequential unique whole numbers that are automatically generated.
Attribute measurement frequency:
Unknown
Attribute:
*Attribute label: Value
*Attribute alias: Value
Attribute definition:
Integer Value from 0 - 10 where 0 equals little or no potential for establishment and 10
equals extremely high potential for establishment. For graphical reasons these data were
reclassed into 5 classes: 0 = Little or No, 1 – 3 = Low, 4 – 6 = Moderate, 7 – 8 = High,
and 9 – 10 = Extreme.
*Attribute
*Attribute
*Attribute
*Attribute
type: Integer
width: 0
precision: 0
scale: 0
Attribute value accuracy information:
Attribute value accuracy: As Reported
Attribute measurement frequency:
As needed
Attribute:
*Attribute label: Count
*Attribute alias: Count
Attribute definition:
The frequency of 1000 by 1000 meter GRID cells
Attribute definition source:
ESRI
Page 7 of 14
*Attribute
*Attribute
*Attribute
*Attribute
Establishment Risk Surface for Agrilius biguttatus
type: Double
width: 0
precision: 0
scale: 0
Attribute measurement frequency:
As needed
Distribution Information:
Resource description: Downloadable Data
Standard order process:
Digital form:
Digital transfer information:
*Transfer size: 12.78 Megabytes (uncompressed)
*Dataset size: 12.78 Megabytes (uncompressed)
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Metadata Reference Information:
*Metadata date: 20100309
*Language of metadata: en
Metadata contact:
Contact information:
Contact organization primary:
Contact person: Marla C. Downing
Contact organization: Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET) USDA Forest Service
Contact position: FHTET, Lead and Biological Scientist
Contact address:
Address type: mailing and physical address
Address:
2150 Centre Avenue, Bldg A, Suite 331
City: Fort Collins
State or province: Colorado
Postal code: 80526-1891
Country: USA
Contact voice telephone: 970-295-5843
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Establishment Risk Surface for Agrilius biguttatus
Contact electronic mail address: mdowning@fs.fed.us
Hours of service: 9:00 AM - 5:00 PM MT
*Metadata standard name: FGDC Content Standards for Digital Geospatial Metadata
*Metadata standard version: FGDC-STD-001-1998
*Metadata time convention: local time
Metadata security information:
Metadata security classification: Unclassified
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Appendix A
FIA Oak Species
FIA Code
801
801
802
803
804
805
806
807
809
810
811
812
812
814
815
803
843
816
Scientific Name
Quercus agrifolia
Quercus agrifolia var. oxyadenia
Quercus alba
Quercus arizonica
Quercus bicolor
Quercus chapmanii
Quercus chrysolepis
Quercus coccinea
Quercus douglasii
Quercus ellipsoidalis
Quercus emoryi
Quercus engelmannii
Quercus falcata
Quercus falcata var. falcata
Quercus gambelii
Quercus garryana
Quercus graciliformis
Quercus gravesii
Quercus grisea
Quercus hypoleucoides
Quercus ilicifolia
Page 9 of 14
817
842
818
819
820
821
822
823
840
824
825
841
826
827
829
844
813
830
831
845
832
833
834
836
808
835
828
837
838
839
Establishment Risk Surface for Agrilius biguttatus
Quercus imbricaria
Quercus incana
Quercus kelloggii
Quercus laevis
Quercus laurifolia
Quercus lobata
Quercus lyrata
Quercus macrocarpa
Quercus margarettiae
Quercus marilandica
Quercus michauxii
Quercus minima
Quercus muehlenbergii
Quercus nigra
Quercus oblongifolia
Quercus oglethorpensis
Quercus pagoda
Quercus palustris
Quercus phellos
Quercus prinoides
Quercus prinus
Quercus rubra
Quercus rugosa
Quercus shumardii
Quercus similis
Quercus sinuata var. sinuata
Quercus stellata
Quercus texana
Quercus turbinella
Quercus velutina
Quercus virginiana
Quercus wislizeni
Appendix B
Drought Calculation
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Establishment Risk Surface for Agrilius biguttatus
Agrilus biguttatus: Late Spring-Early Summer Drought 2007-2009
Frank Koch, Bill Smith
We used gridded data (approximately 4 km2 spatial resolution) created with the PRISM climate mapping system to
perform our analyses. The gridded data (WGS72 projection) were downloaded from the PRISM Group web site
(http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu). When these analyses were performed, final versions of total precipitation, mean
daily minimum temperature, and mean daily maximum temperature grids were available for every month from January
1895 until October 2009.
Methods
We adopted an approach, utilizing the PRISM climate grids, in which a moisture index value for a given location (i.e.,
a grid cell) is calculated based on both precipitation and potential evapotranspiration values for that location during the
time period of interest. Potential evapotranspiration measures the loss of soil moisture through plant uptake and
transpiration (Akin 1991). It does not measure actual moisture loss, but rather the loss that would occur under ideal
conditions (i.e., if there was no possible shortage of moisture for plants to transpire) (Akin 1991, Thornthwaite 1948).
The inclusion of both precipitation and potential evapotranspiration provides a fuller accounting of a location’s water
balance than precipitation alone. So, to complement the PRISM monthly precipitation grids, we computed monthly
potential evapotranspiration (PET) grids using the Thornthwaite formula (Akin 1991, Thornthwaite 1948):
[1]
PETm = 1.6 L(10
Tm a
)
I
where PETm = the potential evapotranspiration for a given month m in cm; L = a correction factor for the hours of
daylight and number of days in a month for all locations at a particular latitude; Tm = the mean temperature for month m
in degrees C; a = an arbitrary exponent calculated by a = 6.75 ×10-7I3 – 7.71 × 10-5I2 + 1.792 × 10-2I + 0.49239; and I =
1.514
T 
an annual heat index, calculated as I = ∑  i 
i =1  5 
12
, where Ti is the mean temperature for each month i of the year. To
implement Equation 1 spatially, we created a grid of latitude values for determining the L adjustment for any given 4km2 grid cell in the conterminous United States [see Thornthwaite (1948) for a table of L correction factors]. We
calculated the mean monthly temperature grids as the mean of the corresponding PRISM daily minimum and maximum
monthly temperature grids.
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Establishment Risk Surface for Agrilius biguttatus
We used the precipitation (P) and PET grids to generate baseline moisture index grids for 1910-2009 for the
conterminous United States. Willmott and Feddema (1992) proposed a moisture index, MI′, with the following form:
[2]
P < PET
 P / PET − 1 ,

MI ' = 1 − PET / P ,
P ≥ PET

0
, P = PET = 0

This set of equations yields a dimensionless index scaled between -1 and 1. Though MI′ is typically calculated based on
annual values, for this analysis we were only interested in moisture conditions during late spring-early summer, roughly
a three-month time window of interest. So, we calculated MI′ based on the total P and PET values summed over three
months rather than an entire year. Notably, late spring-early summer represents a different time window depending on
geographic location (i.e., depending on latitude/elevation/climate). For this reason, we actually calculated nationwide
MI′ grids for three different three-month windows during each year 1910-2009: March-May, April-June, and May-July.
(At the end of our analysis, we ultimately combined three output grids for each year into a single grid; details on how
we did this are provided below.)
To determine departure from typical moisture conditions, we first created a normal grid, MI′norm, representing the mean
of the 100 individual MI′ grids generated for each three-month window (i.e., one grid for each year 1910-2009). We
also created a standard deviation grid, MI′SD, calculated from these individual grids as well as the MI′norm grid. We
subsequently calculated moisture difference z-scores, MDZi, from these components:
[3]
MDZ i =
MI 'i − MI ' norm
MI ' SD
where i = a particular year in the 100-year period 1910-2009. The MDZi scores may be classified in terms of degree of
moisture deficit or surplus as follows:
MDZi Score Moisture Status
<-2
Extreme drought (2.3 percent frequency)
-2 to -1.5
Severe drought (4.4% frequency)
-1.5 to -1
Moderate drought (9.2% frequency)
-1 to -0.5
Mild drought (15% frequency)
-0.5 to 0.5
Near normal conditions (38.2% frequency)
0.5 to 1
Mild moisture surplus (15% frequency)
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Establishment Risk Surface for Agrilius biguttatus
1 to 1.5
Moderate moisture surplus (9.2% frequency)
1.5 to 2
Severe moisture surplus (4.4% frequency)
>2
Extreme moisture surplus (2.3% frequency)
To combine the three output MDZ grids for each year (i.e., one each for the March-May, April-June, May-July
windows) into a single nationwide grid, we first subset them using PRISM data related to frost-free period. Briefly, we
divided the conterminous U.S. into three geographic regions (Figure 1) based on the 30-year mean Julian date of the
last spring freeze: Zone 1, including all areas with a mean Julian date ≤ 90 (i.e., last freeze prior to April 1); Zone 2, all
areas with a mean Julian date between 90 and 120 (i.e., last freeze between April 1 and April 30); and Zone 3, all areas
with a mean Julian date > 120 (i.e., last freeze after April 30). Next, we matched each three-month window to the most
appropriate zone (Figure 1), and then clipped the corresponding MDZ grid to the zonal boundaries. Finally, we
mosaiced these clipped grids into a single grid covering the conterminous United States.
We re-projected the final output grids to Albers NAD83. For the A. biguttatus risk model (i.e., the map of
establishment risk), we generated binary (0/1) grids for the years 2007-2009 from the final MDZ grids; basically, MDZ
grid cells exhibiting severe or extreme drought (i.e., z-score < -1.5) were assigned a value of 1, while all other cells
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Establishment Risk Surface for Agrilius biguttatus
were assigned a value of zero. The three binary grids were then added together using map algebra to create a three-level
map of drought risk.
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