SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT IN PUERTO RICO: AN ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS AND BENEFITS A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE MASTER OF SCIENCE NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT BY JOSÉ F. MARTÍNEZ-COLÓN JAMES EFLIN, PH.D. BALL STATE UNIVERSITY MUNCIE, INDIANA JULY 2011 In loving memory of my father: Aníbal Martinez Rivera May he rest in God’s divine glory. ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to express my gratitude to the professors in my thesis committee: Dr. James Eflin, Dr. John Pichtel, and Dr. Petra Zimmermann. I would like to thank also the following individuals for their time and contribution to this project: Ivette Nazario, Director of the GIS Office at the Puerto Rico Highway and Transportation Authority, and Margarita Dijols and Edwin Rosario, employees of the Solid Waste Authority of Puerto Rico. In addition, I would like to acknowledge the support and friendship of all other faculty members and staff of the Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management at Ball State University. Finally, I greatly appreciate the support of my family, especially my mother, Carmen Milagros Colón, for her encouragement and support through this process. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iii LIST OF FIGURES vi LIST OF TABLES viii LIST OF EQUATIONS ix ABSTRACT x CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION 1 CHAPTER II: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 History of Solid Waste Management 2.2 Solid Waste Management Options 2.3 Overview of Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases (GHG) 2.3.1 GHGs and Solid Waste Management 2.3.1.1 Landfilling 2.3.1.2 Recycling 2.3.1.3 Composting 2.3.1.4 Source Reduction 2.3.1.5 Combustion/Waste-to-Energy 2.3.2 Modeling GHG Emissions in Solid Waste Management 2.3.2.1 Waste Reduction Model (WARM) 2.4 Geographic Information Systems and Solid Waste Management 2.5 Site of Study: Puerto Rico 2.5.1 General Features 2.5.2 Climate Change and Puerto Rico 2.5.3 Solid Waste Management in Puerto Rico 2.5.4 Waste Characterization for Puerto Rico 2.5.5 Energy Use and Production in Puerto Rico 4 6 8 9 11 15 17 20 22 25 27 29 31 31 34 35 37 38 CHAPTER III: METHODS 3.1 WARM Inputs 3.1.1 WARM Alternative Scenario 1 (“Base Case”) 3.1.2 WARM Alternative Scenario 2 (“Backup Case”) 3.1.3 WARM Business-as-Usual Scenario (“No Action Case”) 3.2 Transportation of MSW 3.3 Study Assumptions and Limitations iv 39 40 44 47 50 54 CHAPTER IV: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 4.1 Transportation Analysis 4.1.1 Transportation in “Base Case” 4.1.2 Transportation in “Backup Case” 4.1.3 Transportation in “No Action Case” 4.1.4 Summary of Transportation Analysis 4.2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Analysis 4.2.1 Emissions in “No Action Case” 4.2.2 Emissions in “Backup Case” 4.2.3 Emissions in “Base Case” 4.2.4 Summary of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Analysis 4.3 Energy Use Analysis 4.3.1 Energy Use in “No Action Case” 4.3.2 Energy Use in “Backup Case” 4.3.3 Energy Use in “Base Case” 4.3.4 Summary of Energy Use Analysis 4.4 Considerations about Proposed MSW Scenarios 56 57 65 71 77 77 78 79 80 81 82 84 85 85 86 87 CHAPTER V: CONCLUSION 91 REFERENCES 92 APPENDICES I. MSW Hauling Origins and Destination: “Base Case” 2010 II. MSW Hauling Origins and Destination: “Base Case” 2020 III. MSW Hauling Origins and Destination: “Base Case” 2030 IV. MSW Hauling Origins and Destination: “Backup Case” 2010 V. MSW Hauling Origins and Destination: “Backup Case” 2020 VI. MSW Hauling Origins and Destination: “Backup Case” 2030 VII. MSW Hauling Origins and Destination: “No Action Case” 2010 VIII. MSW Hauling Origins and Destination: “No Action Case” 2020 IX. MSW Hauling Origins and Destination: “No Action Case” 2030 X. WARM Greenhouse Gas Emission Factors (MTCO2E per short ton) XI. WARM Greenhouse Gas Emission Factors (MTCE per short ton) XII. WARM Energy Use Factors (million BTU per short ton) v 100 102 104 106 108 110 112 114 116 118 119 120 LIST OF FIGURES 1. Life Cycle of Products and Waste Management 2. Municipalities of Puerto Rico 3. Generalized Topography of Puerto Rico 4. Current MSW Management Infrastructure 5. Waste Characterization for Puerto Rico (% by weight) 6. MSW Management Infrastructure for "Base Case," 2010 7. MSW Management Infrastructure for "Base Case," 2020 8. MSW Management Infrastructure for "Base Case," 2030 9. MSW Management Infrastructure for "Backup Case," 2010 10. MSW Management Infrastructure for "Backup Case," 2020 11. MSW Management Infrastructure for "Backup Case," 2030 12. MSW Management Infrastructure for "No Action Case," 2010 13. MSW Management Infrastructure for "No Action Case," 2020 14. MSW Management Infrastructure for "No Action Case," 2030 15. Road Network of Puerto Rico (highways only) 16. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Landfills (“Base Case” 2010) 17. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Landfills (“Base Case” 2020) 18. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Landfills (“Base Case” 2030) 19. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities - Transfer Station (“Base Case” 2010, 2020, and 2030 20. MSW Hauling Distances: Transfer Stations – Landfills (“Base Case” 2010) 21. MSW Hauling Distances: Transfer Stations – Landfills (“Base Case” 2020) 22. MSW Hauling Distances: Transfer Stations – Landfills (“Base Case” 2030) 23. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – MRF (“Base Case” 2010) 24. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – MRF (“Base Case” 2020 and 2030) 25. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Composts (“Base Case” 2010) 26. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Composts (“Base Case” 2020 and 2030) 27. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – WtE (“Base Case” 2020) 28. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – WtE (“Base Case” 2030) 29. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Landfills (“Backup Case” 2010) 30. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Landfills (“Backup Case” 2020) 31. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Landfills (“Backup Case” 2030) 32. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Transfer Stations (“Backup Case” 2010, 2020, and 2030) 33. MSW Hauling Distances: Transfer Stations – Landfills (“Backup Case” 2010) 34. MSW Hauling Distances: Transfer Stations – Landfills (“Backup Case” 2020) 35. MSW Hauling Distances: Transfer Stations – Landfills (“Backup Case” 2030) 36. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – MRF (“Backup Case” 2010) vi 11 33 33 37 38 41 42 42 44 45 45 48 48 49 54 58 59 59 60 60 61 61 62 62 63 63 64 64 65 66 66 67 67 68 68 69 37. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – MRF (“Backup Case” 2020 and 2030) 38. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Composts (“Backup Case” 2010) 39. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Composts (“Backup Case” 2020 and 2030) 40. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Landfills (“No Action Case” 2010) 41. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Landfills (“No Action Case” 2020) 42. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Landfills (“No Action Case” 2030) 43. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Transfer Stations (“No Action Case” 2010) 44. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Transfer Stations (“No Action Case” 2020 and 2030) 45. MSW Hauling Distances: Transfer Stations – Landfills (“No Action Case” 2010) 46. MSW Hauling Distances: Transfer Stations – Landfills (“No Action Case” 2020) 47. MSW Hauling Distances: Transfer Stations – Landfills (“No Action Case” 2030) 48. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – MRF (“No Action Case” 2010, 2020, and 2030) 49. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Composts (“No Action Case” 2010, 2020, and 2030) 50. Greenhouse Gas Emissions for the "No Action Case" (Business-as-Usual) 51. Greenhouse Gas Emissions for the "Backup Case" (Alternative 2) 52. Greenhouse Gas Emissions for the "Base Case" (Alternative 1) 53. Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions for All Studied Cases and Years 54. Energy Consumption in the "No Action Case" (Business-as-Usual) 55. Energy Consumption in the "Backup Case" (Alternative 2) 56. Energy Consumption in the "Base Case" (Alternative 1) 57. Net Energy Consumption in All Studied Cases and Years vii 69 70 70 72 72 73 73 74 74 75 75 76 76 79 80 81 82 84 85 86 87 LIST OF TABLES 1. Costs of Inaction against Climate Change for Puerto Rico 2. Population and MSW Generation in Puerto Rico for Studied Years 3. WARM MSW Inputs for “Base Case”, 2010 4. WARM MSW Inputs for “Base Case”, 2020 5. WARM MSW Inputs for “Base Case”, 2030 6. WARM MSW Inputs for “Backup Case”, 2010 7. WARM MSW Inputs for “Backup Case”, 2020 8. WARM MSW Inputs for “Backup Case”, 2030 9. WARM MSW Inputs for “No Action Case”, 2010 10. WARM MSW Inputs for “No Action Case”, 2020 11. WARM MSW Inputs for “No Action Case”, 2030 12. MSW Hauling Distances as Determined by ArcGIS Network Analyst 13. Comparison of MSW Management Scenarios 14. ADS Strategies and Goals for Achieving the 35% Diversion Rate viii 35 39 43 43 43 46 46 46 49 50 50 57 87 88 LIST OF EQUATIONS 1. Example of WARM calculations 2. Calculation of Diversion Rate for Puerto Rico ix 27 38 ABSTRACT THESIS: Solid Waste Management in Puerto Rico: An Assessment of Environmental Impacts and Benefits STUDENT: José F. Martínez-Colón DEGREE: Master of Science – Natural Resources and Environmental Management COLLEGE: Science and Humanities DATE: July, 2011 PAGES: 120 Municipal solid waste (MSW) management has been a challenging issue throughout history. Waste management options have evolved, but they can present distinct environmental impacts, such as the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG). This study quantified the environmental benefits (i.e., greenhouse gas emission and energy use reductions) of various MSW management plans proposed for Puerto Rico through the use of the Waste Reduction Model (WARM). The waste management initiative known as the “Base Case” was found to offer the most environmental benefits. Thus, higher benefits can be attained from the implementation of an integrated solid waste management. x CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Throughout history, humans have inevitably been impacted by waste. As populations settle and grow, waste management becomes a more acute issue (Wilson, 1976). Not only does waste management affect our quality of life, but it also impacts our environment as such practices contribute to the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG), and consequently climate change. From this standpoint, it is imperative that mitigation actions be taken accordingly. Municipal solid waste (MSW), commonly known as trash or garbage, is composed of products used in everyday life and then disposed. MSW typically comes from residential, commercial, and institutional locales, while industrial, hazardous, and construction/demolition (C&D) wastes are not included under this definition (USEPA, 2008). Modern methods of waste management include landfilling, recycling, composting, combustion, and source reduction (Tchobanoglous et al, 2002). Even though these practices have evolved throughout history, this issue still constitutes a compelling environmental, health, and economic challenge. The environmental impacts from the management of solid waste can be measured from a life-cycle perspective. Virgin materials must be extracted in order to create new products. Once these have reached the end of their usefulness, they are typically discarded in landfills. As these materials decompose, GHGs are released. However, modern practices such as recycling, composting, and source reduction allow for the diversion of garbage and organic material from sanitary landfills, thus lessening environmental impacts. Another means of disposal, combustion (i.e., Waste-to-Energy – WtE), not only has the potential to decrease the volume of discarded MSW, but can also serve as a source of heat and power, thus displacing a percentage of fossil fuels destined for this task (USEPA, 2002a). While there are options available for solid waste management, countries may still struggle with the implementation and impacts of proposed alternatives. The Caribbean island of Puerto Rico serves as an example of such a nation. Both MSW management and climate change are issues of concern for Puerto Rico, primarily due to insufficient disposal space, inefficient waste management, and increased vulnerability to extreme weather. Solutions must be developed with such concerns in mind. In particular, waste management concerns have prompted the Solid Waste Authority of Puerto Rico (or Autoridad de Desperdicios Sólidos - ADS in Spanish) to develop a series of MSW management alternatives that could be employed through the year 2030. The focus of this study is to quantify the environmental benefits (i.e., reductions in GHG and energy use) brought about by the diverse practices proposed by ADS using the Waste Reduction Model (WARM), an MSW-based GHG calculation tool developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). These practices include the implementation of improved recycling and composting initiatives, as well as the introduction of WtE in order to reduce/divert the amount of solid waste reaching landfills. This project provides an assessment and educational model for Puerto 2 Rico, one that bridges gaps of information and demonstrates the environmental benefits of alternative solid waste management options. 3 CHAPTER II LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 History of Solid Waste Management Solid waste disposal is a critical issue in the United States. Cities are confronted with increasing volumes of solid waste generated by residential, commercial, and industrial activities (USEPA, 2002b). However, this problem has its roots in even the earliest civilizations. Earliest humans are believed to have deposited their refuse outside their dwelling entrances until its overwhelming size would prompt them to move out. However, once the nomadic ways were abandoned, waste management was of increased concern. Early dump sites (as early as 8000 – 9000 b.c.) were established in the outskirts of settlements. In Egypt, waste collection was a privilege for the elite, but all the refuse ended up in the Nile River. Another approach arose in Greece, where there were town dumps and household-centered waste management. Furthermore, citizens used to toss their garbage into the streets, which were later covered by layers of soil (Pichtel, 2005; Wilson, 1976). Not only did these practices present a health problem (i.e., epidemics were first associated with uncontrolled waste disposal), but it also compromised local defense, as refuse piles accumulated near city walls could be scaled by invaders. In Rome, even though waste was collected and transported to open pits in an organized fashion for the first time in history, open street disposal or dumping into the Tiber River were common practices. It is suggested that the waste management problem (especially with regard to odors) may have driven aristocrats away, thus decentralizing power and perhaps leading to Rome’s downfall. In Europe, the surge of population and urbanization also meant greater impacts of waste. Besides street dumping, garbage was burned in household open fires and wildlife often feasted upon the waste. Moreover, discarding refuse into surface waters may have begun the plague outbreak (“The Black Death”) in medieval Europe, and thus laws were promulgated to prohibit this practice (Pichtel, 2005). Just before the Industrial Revolution, waste had some profitable use, but once this period began, waste generation was intensified while environmental and health issues were not as important as production. However, in the 19th century there was increased awareness due to the linking of improper sanitation and the incidence of diseases (“Great Sanitary Awakening”), thus more stringent regulations were established. In the United States, the first forms of sanitation were promoted by Benjamin Franklin, in which servants were charged with the removal of waste from the streets. Public-paid collection began in 1856, and incinerators were first used during the winter time after the passing of a bill in 1885. However, the rapid growth of urban areas and population (both American and foreign) aggravated waste management, which by the middle-to late-1800s was inefficient, and the common practice was to transport refuse miles away (or offshore). More advanced practices were seen during the second half of the 19th century, when industrialization and urbanism were intensified (Pichtel, 2005). This period saw the contributions of Civil War veteran Col. George E. Waring, Jr. in New York City, which included the establishment of a systematic waste classification 5 scheme (Pichtel, 2005; Wilson, 1976). Furthermore, his reforms improved the efficiency and costs of collection, as well as promoting further experimentation with incineration and waste reduction. These advances were further developed with the coming of the 20th century (Pichtel, 2005). Ocean dumping received criticism due to the pollution of the East and West Coast Beaches, and was deemed illegal in 1934. Furthermore, there was a shift from land disposal/dumping to the widespread use of sanitary landfills (Pichtel, 2005; O’Leary and Tchobanoglous, 2002). In modern times, the traditional approach to deal with solid waste has been through the disposal in sanitary landfills (O’Leary and Tchobanoglous, 2002; Rogoff, 1987). The landfill mindset has given rise to varied environmental problems such as leaching of contaminants into soils and groundwater, and atmospheric emissions. Therefore, landfills must operate with control features, and siting conditions (mainly soil and geologic properties, and proximity to urbanized areas) must be adequate. These issues are aggravated by citizen opposition and not-in-my-back-yard (NIMBY) attitudes (Rogoff, 1987). However, the continued pursuit and development of alternatives greatly improved waste management issues. 2.2 Solid Waste Management Options As population and industrialization increase, so does the generation of solid waste, and thus management problems become more challenging. A variety of solid waste management options have been adopted by governments at all levels. While landfilling is a less preferred option compared to other strategies, advances in technology allowed this practice to thrive (O’Leary and Tchobanoglous, 2002). Furthermore, 6 enhanced awareness of human health and environmental impacts prompted agencies to incorporate practices such as source reduction, recycling, composting, and combustion to deal with MSW. USEPA defines and combines these strategies into an Integrated Solid Waste Management (ISWM) system (USEPA, 2002a; Tchobanoglous et al, 2002). The first types of solid waste management are intended to divert refuse from disposal (primarily landfilling). Source reduction, reduces waste at the beginning of its life cycle by reducing the demand for new products. This entails acquiring reusable products or redesigning products (i.e., new products that require fewer virgin materials or last longer). Recycling practices convert used products into valuable resources instead of being discarded. There are a variety of markets for recyclable materials. Governments can build on these practices by providing support to organize and improve recycling efforts. Moreover, the development of Materials Recovery Facilities (MRF), Transfer Stations (TS), and certain forms of combustion can allow for more effective recycling strategies. Organics such as food scraps or plant matter can also be diverted from the flow of MSW and be decomposed in a controlled aerobic biological process known as composting. Composts act as soil amendments, thus reducing the need for chemical fertilizers and pesticides (USEPA, 2002a, Tchobanoglous et al, 2002). The combustion process entails the controlled burning of waste in a specialized facility. In this case, the benefits may be two-fold as it can reduce the volume of MSW by 90% and generate energy/electricity. In an ISWM, this technology is employed when wastes cannot be recycled or composted, or where landfill space is limited. Landfills may provide a safer alternative than simply discarding MSW uncontrollably (if properly 7 designed, constructed, and managed). Modern modifications may include earthen or synthetic liners that prevent leachates from reaching soils, and flaring systems that can burn methane produced from waste decomposition. The latter can also be developed as an energy recovery system (USEPA, 2002a; Tchobanoglous et al, 2002). As USEPA (2002a) states, a proper ISWM makes an effective combined use of the previously explained strategies. Taking human health and environmental well-being as a foundation, authorities must develop plans that address the needs of communities, while ensuring the effective management of solid waste and the adherence to regulations. Furthermore, ISWM may provide opportunities to improve economic conditions by providing new jobs and adequate funding management (Tchobanoglous et al, 2002). However, judging from the various challenges posed by solid waste management, it is expected that major environmental issues (i.e., climate change) arise, and strategies must address these impacts accordingly. 2.3 Overview of Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases (GHG) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines the term “climate change” as “any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity” (2007). Their reports and several observations characterize this phenomenon as “unequivocal”, and projections are treated with a certain degree of confidence based on prior knowledge, but with a recognized uncertainty (IPCC, 2007). 8 One of the most important factors that originated and aggravated climate change is the increase in GHG emissions, which are emitted from natural (e.g., volcanic activity) and anthropogenic sources (e.g., industrial processes). The IPCC characterizes the latter to be a “likely” player in exacerbating the changes in the climate system. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is reported to have increased in the atmosphere since pre-industrial times (from 280 ppm in 1750 to 379 ppm in 2005). The continued dependence on fossil fuels, changes in land use, and even agriculture substantially contributed to these increases, as well as methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (NOx) emissions (IPCC, 2007). Popular mitigation strategies have been proposed to minimize climate change impacts at global and individual levels. Some policies now argue for the change from fossil fuel usage to alternative and renewable sources. Furthermore, what energy is produced today has been directed to be used more efficiently; strategies include the design of better buildings and systems. In terms of GHG capture, protection of existing vegetative cover and reforestation contribute to the capturing of carbon, as well as more technical strategies in geo-engineering such as carbon sequestration. Human behavior is, and may forever be, a key factor in mitigation as humans are encouraged to make use of public transportation and carefully monitor the electricity usage, among other solutions (Biello, 2007). 2.3.1 GHGs and Solid Waste Management Diverse MSW management practices have different impacts on the environment. Certain options may yield greater greenhouse gas emissions than others, such as the direct disposal of solid waste into landfills, or incinerating the refuse with no 9 resource/energy recovery. Transportation of MSW from curbside to management facilities also adds CO2 emissions. Additionally, more emissions will be generated from the processing of raw materials into new products. As informed by USEPA (2002b), the emissions and offsets of such can be observed through a life-cycle approach (Figure 1). First, extraction and transportation of raw materials involves the use of fossil fuels, thus resulting in CO2 emissions. Further emissions occur in the manufacturing of new products, the next stage in the cycle. Once products are completely used, typically the next stage would be disposal, composting, or combustion, in which case more emissions from transportation of MSW will occur. In the case of disposal, degradation of materials in landfills results in increased emissions, specifically methane. However, practices such as recycling and source reduction help prevent/offset GHG emissions. Composting the organic materials offsets emissions as some of the carbon is returned to the soils. Finally, from the combustion of solid waste, even though it has been known to release CO2 and N2O, emissions are offset due to the use of fewer fossil fuels to generate energy (USEPA, 2002b). The same can be expected in some landfills equipped with landfill gas-to-energy systems (“General Information”, 2010). More detailed observations for each MSW management option are presented next. 10 Figure 1. Life Cycle of Products and Waste Management (Source: USEPA) 2.3.1.1 Landfilling The disposal of solid waste residues (i.e., un-recycled or otherwise processed MSW) has been historically carried out in or on surface soils. Another practice was the dumping of refuse in oceans. Nevertheless, sanitary landfills are an “economical and environmentally accepted method” for disposing MSW (O’Leary and Tchobanoglous, 2002). These sites are analogous to biochemical reactors in the sense that MSW residues are the inputs, while landfill gas and leachates are the outputs of this process. Throughout its various phases, which are dominated by bacterial action in aerobic and anaerobic mediums, MSW is degraded and GHGs such as CO2 and CH4 undergo an evolutionary process and are ultimately released into the atmosphere (O’Leary and Tchobanoglous, 2002). 11 The evolution of landfill gas is described by O’Leary and Tchobanoglous (2002) as a five-stage process, in which duration per stage and volume of gases generated depends on various conditions, such as the distribution of organic components, availability of nutrients, moisture content and paths thereof within waste, and compaction. Each step is summarized as follows: “Initial Adjustment:” Once the refuse is placed in a landfill, bacteria begin to decompose the biodegradable components in MSW under aerobic conditions. The soil material that is used for landfill cover provides these organisms. “Transition Phase:” At this stage the oxygen originally found in the first phase is depleted and anaerobic bacteria develop. Electron receptors, specifically NO3- and SO4- are reduced, thus N2 and H2S are formed. As the oxidation/reduction potential decreases, organics-degrading microorganisms begin to develop. “Acid Phase:” Bacterial activity is accelerated with increasing production of organic acids and decreasing N2. Within this phase, organic material undergoes more degradation, allowing microorganisms to use the converted compounds for energy and carbon, leaving CH3COOH and fulvic acids. Also, CO2 and H2 are generated. “Methane Fermentation:” In this phase, methanogenic bacteria become dominant, and begin to convert the acids formed in the previous stage into CH4 and CO2. 12 “Maturation:” The biodegradable material is ultimately converted into CH4 and CO2. Due to moisture migration, more materials will be converted in the same fashion as stated throughout this process. Nevertheless, landfill gas generation rates decrease due to the removal of nutrients along with the leachate formed in former stages, while the remaining substrates are slowly degraded. The two primary GHGs found in landfills are CO2 and CH4, accounting for approximately 45% and 55% of the total respectively. CH4 is considered to have a global warming potential (or heat retention potential - GWP) 21 times that of CO2 (Block, 2000). However, CO2 is not commonly considered an addition in GHG emissions due to its biogenic nature. On the other hand, the contributions of methane can vary with original concentration of its counterpart, as well as the MSW components containing carbon. The type of landfill will also have a significant impact on GHG generation, with rudimentary dumps accounting for greater emissions, while well-engineered landfills, or sites with lower organic MSW fractions, will emit less (Manfredi et al, 2009). Nitrous oxides are yet another GHG emitted by landfills, though the concentrations are lower than CH4 and CO2. Rinne et al (2005) encountered N2O emissions on the undisturbed landfill surface and compared them with measurements taken within the landfill cover. They also found a connection between ages of landfilled materials and soil cover: older materials having some vegetation cover indicated a higher release of N2O due to the activity of CH4-oxidizing bacteria on the landfill surface (Rinne et al, 2005). Emission rates for these gases are affected by a number of conditions. Park 13 and Shin (2001) determined these conditions through measurements taken with an air flux chamber and gas chromatography at a Korean landfill. They discovered that emission rates were lower during the winter season, while the summer season gave higher readings. They attributed these findings to changes in temperature and precipitation: low temperatures in landfills exhibit more compaction, while the frequent precipitation during the summer accelerated landfill gas production and subsequently, gases were released under sunny conditions (Park and Shin, 2001). While landfills are a major source of anthropogenic GHG emissions, mitigation strategies have been devised, as explained next. Typical methods for managing landfill gas include flaring and energy recovery. In flare systems, CH4 and other trace gases undergo combustion, thus forming primarily CO2, SO2, and NOx. This method is often subjected to meet stringent air pollution controls. On the other hand, landfill gas can be converted into a useful form of energy (e.g., electricity) through technologies such as combustion piston engines and turbines (O’Leary and Tchobanoglous, 2002). Moreover, greater GHG reductions can be achieved, depending on the end use of landfill gas. Han et al (2009) studied three different scenarios: 1) no collection of gases, 2) thermal energy generation from gases for fossil fuel replacement in boilers and air heaters, and 3) electricity generation from landfill gas. The major findings were that the second scenario fared better against the third in terms of gas utilization, but emission reductions were greater when the end use was electricity generation due to gas collection efficiencies (Han et al, 2009). Furthermore, if these emission reductions are accounted for along with any reductions 14 from an electricity grid, landfill gas-to-energy projects may improve electricity prices (Jaramillo and Matthews, 2005). There are other landfill gas mitigation strategies that do not involve its usage and still achieve GHG reductions. Purification of landfill gas can be achieved by separating CO2 and CH4 through physical and chemical adsorption or membrane separation (O’Leary and Tchobanoglous, 2002). The evolution of gases (as explained previously) can also be controlled through in situ landfill aeration, thus achieving GHG savings as determined by Ritzkowski and Stergmann (2010). “Biocovers” (i.e., composted yard waste deposited on top of landfill soil cover) have also been found to be effective in reducing CH4 emissions as well as other non-methane hydrocarbons due to increases in methane oxidation (Bogner et al, 2010). Judging from these research findings, landfills can still be an important part of an ISWM. 2.3.1.2 Recycling Since the 1980s, recycling has been a widely accepted and environmentally attractive method of solid waste management in the United States and elsewhere (Leverenz et al, 2002). According to Leverenz et al (2002), its success may depend on wise allocation of responsibilities and adequate costs, which means developing achievable waste diversion goals. Recycling programs may be either voluntary or mandatory, and some target specific types of wastes (e.g., cardboard boxes, glass, metals, and plastics). Furthermore, recycling mechanisms may vary: recyclables can be separated by the waste generator (e.g., consumer), the collector (at curbside), or processed in 15 specialized facilities (i.e., Materials Recovery Facilities – MRFs). They outline certain implications from different recycling methods (Leverenz et al, 2002): “Separation by generator:” segregation of recyclables by homeowner, often with high collection costs, and low processing costs. “Commingled collection” (MRF): most recyclables separated by generator and collection/processing efficiency is increased. “Mixed-waste collection:” no separation from generator, no increments in collection costs, but high processing costs due to low recovery efficiency. The general effects of recycling on GHG are well known and straightforward. For instance, these are well-documented and researched through life-cycle analyses of the diverse MSW management practices. Recycling can be seen as a “materials management strategy” rather than be strictly referred to as a climate change mitigation effort (Boisson and Georgis, 2009). Through recycling, there is less dependence on the acquisition of virgin materials, thus reducing energy use and costs as well as GHG emissions. In terms of achieving accurate GHG accounting it is important to consider that this practice can influence several different industrial sectors as well as the commercial and residential realms (Boisson and Georgis, 2009; USEPA, 2002a). On the other hand, recycling may not represent significant GHG savings at the downstream of the life-cycle due to the transportation of recycling materials. Despite this, recycling is still a much preferred option over landfilling or combustion. Furthermore, the practice of industrial symbiosis may be a key to reduce GHG emissions from transportation in this context, as 16 participating industrial processes are clustered within a short geographic proximity (Chertow, 2009). The benefits of recycling programs can be further strengthened by the implementation of waste management incentives and regulations. An example is the PayAs-You-Throw (PAYT) program, in which residents are charged for trash collection service based on the amount of MSW set out for disposal. In this case, residents are encouraged to recycle in order for them to reduce or avoid these costs, thus improving waste diversion rates (Skumatz, 2008). 2.3.1.3 Composting Composting has become a widely used diversion method for MSW, specifically paper, food scraps, yard waste, and other organic materials. This practice consists of an aerobic process in which microorganism degrade the organic material. Common outputs include water, minerals, and CO2. In addition, the composting process makes for “biologically-stabilized” material, which can be used for horticulture and/or agriculture. This practice can be carried out in specialized facilities and with a variety of technologies. These include “windrows” (i.e., piles arranged in rows exposed to wind), “aerated piles” (i.e., enclosed conditioning of compost), or “rotating drums” (i.e., compost processing within a reactor) (Andersen, 2010). There are diverse processes occurring in composts at different levels. The organisms’ role in this system is to contribute in the mineralization process, and it is reported that different feeding levels occur. Zeman et al (2002) state that the 17 biochemistry of this system varies with temperature, moisture, particle size, carbon-tonitrogen proportions (C:N), phosphorus and sulfur content, and pH. It has been observed that differences in temperature at varying stages of the decomposition process allow certain microorganisms to thrive. These properties are further affected if the composting process is done under active conditions (i.e., mechanical movement/rotation of compost for aeration) instead of passive conditions (i.e., natural aeration) (Zeman et al, 2002). Specifically when dealing with manure, its water content and the livestock’s diet can play an important role in the properties and decomposition of the compost material. For this particular kind of organic waste, windrows have been commonly used as the composting method, thus reducing the liquid fraction (Larney, 2006). However, the previously mentioned properties have another effect besides decomposition rates and nutrient availability: the rates and types of greenhouse gas emissions. In a compost system, the predominant GHGs emitted are CO2, CH4, and N2O. The stages at which CO2 is considered an addition to climate change-related emissions include the transportation of input materials to the compost facility and of finished product off-site, energy used during the process (e.g., mechanical rotation), and end uses of the compost products. CH4 and N2O do have an additional effect to GHG emissions. Methane is produced as a by-product under anaerobic conditions. In its evolution, carbon (C) remains as the only electron acceptor available after the exhaustion of oxygen, nitrogen, iron, manganese, and sulfur. The nitrous oxides are formed via nitrification or most commonly, denitrification (Brown et al, 2008). In terms of methane emissions, it is reported that methane, even though it is produced deep within anaerobic zones of a 18 compost system, may very well be oxidized in aerobic pockets before leaving the pile (Zeman and Rich, 2001). While GHG emissions may be lower in composts compared to landfills, sound management is required in order to keep emissions low. For instance, a compost pile that is well-aerated can reduce emissions, accelerate stabilization, and reduce odors (Brown and Subler, 2007). However, the properties of composts can greatly affect the amounts of GHGs released. The properties governing GHG emissions in composts include the type of input, moisture content, bulk density, C:N ratio, pH, and the presence of other compounds and elements. Brown et al (2008) reported that yard wastes have a lower moisture content, lower bulk density, and higher C:N ratio than manure or biosolids. Emissions have been lower than wet inputs with a low C:N ratio. This higher moisture content also means that anaerobic decomposition may be at work, giving off CH4 as explained before. Therefore, this is of special concern when dealing with manure or biosolids composting practices (Brown et al, 2008). Methane emissions have also been found to decrease with low pH. Hao et al (2005) conducted an experiment in which a phosphorus-based fertilizer, phosphogypsum (PG), was added to active manure composts. In this case, CH4 emissions were decreased in composts where PG was applied, a result attributed to the decrease in pH and the enhanced sulfur content (Hao et al, 2005). Another study including PG involved the examination of stored manure compost. CH4 emissions behaved in a similar fashion as in the previous study, but were not affected by the amendment of PG (Hao, 2007). 19 Nitrous oxide is reported to behave differently from CH4. High emissions of N2O have been associated with the increasing NH4+ during nitrification and increasing NO3during denitrification (under aerobic and anaerobic conditions, respectively). Furthermore, N2O emissions have been found to increase significantly with decreasing pH in active composting (Hao et al, 2005). However, N2O emissions are lower in passive/stored composts. The same behavior toward pH was observed as well (Hao, 2007). Nevertheless, literature sustains that composts emit lower amounts of GHG when compared to landfills. Moreover, the potential for emissions can be carried over to the end use stage, thus affecting the soils ability to capture or emit gases. The benefits of compost have been well researched, especially for soils. It has been found that composted material can increase soils’ water retention capabilities, act as an effective fertilizer and herbicide replacement (composts are treated with heat to remove pathogens in some cases), and increase carbon sequestration. The organic matter present can also increase aggregate stability, and decrease bulk density (Termorshuizen et al, 2004). Composted materials can also serve as a substitute for peat in horticulture, which would minimize carbon losses and thus GHG flux to the atmosphere. However, the retention of carbon is only temporary and it is eventually released into the atmosphere (Favoino and Hogg, 2008). 2.3.1.4 Source Reduction Source reduction has been recognized by USEPA as one of the most important approaches to deal with MSW. The goal of source reduction programs is to decrease or prevent the amount and toxicity of materials at the source before waste is generated (i.e., 20 at manufacturing). Furthermore, they have the potential to eliminate/facilitate waste management problems. As such, one can expect that source reduction will have far better effects on the environment. From a life-cycle and climate change perspective, this practice can result in GHG emission reductions from the following (Leverenz, 2002): Reduced need for extraction of natural resources Less energy use and pollution from materials processing Reduced disposal of MSW in landfills or combustion plants Reduced need for transportation of materials and waste overall Life-cycle analyses suggest that source reduction has the potential to achieve GHG reductions greater than other waste management options. Bogner et al (2008) report that at certain stages throughout a product’s life the materials’ efficiency can be improved through better design and material substitution. They explain that this would, in turn, mean greater energy savings as well as reductions (or avoidance) in emissions, especially for energy-intensive products such as metals, glass, plastic, and paper. In this area, measures that have been proposed to enforce source reduction are Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR), thus including environmental costs of goods into their market price. Through the implementation of such policies, there is an encouragement to redesign new products using fewer materials or incorporating those that have higher recycling potentials (Bogner et al, 2008; Leverenz, 2002). Analogous to recycling, PAYT programs can also serve as incentives for source reduction, as citizens are encouraged to reuse their products (Skumatz, 2008; Leverenz, 2002). 21 2.3.1.5 Combustion/Waste-to-Energy Problems associated with solid waste landfilling have provided an opportunity to explore new waste management practices such as recovery of energy from waste. WtE is the conversion of solid waste into energy or a marketable fuel (Kreith, 2002). These systems provide an alternative to the typical practice of landfilling waste, as they can reduce the volume of refuse. Traditionally, the first major criterion for consideration of WtE technology is whether or not a community is facing a waste disposal crisis, which may include one or more of the following problems (APPA, 1986): Diminishing landfill capacity Lack of acceptable land for new landfills Increased hauling distances High landfill operating costs Stringent environmental standards Negative environmental impacts of landfills WtE processes have typically produced electricity directly through combustion, or through a combustible fuel commodity, such as methane, methanol, ethanol or synthetic fuels (e.g., syngas) (Rogoff, 1987). Major examples of WtE technological options are the traditional incineration/mass burn, refuse-derived fuel (RDF) processing, pyrolysis, gasification, and other modern alternatives. Incineration has been a prominent process for recovering energy from waste in the United States. This process consists of destroying waste materials (un-sorted) by the 22 controlled application of heat and oxygen. Various types of incinerators have been developed which are able to handle the different types and quantities of waste (Schwarz and Brunner, 1983). Incineration has several advantages, such as immediate volume reduction, on-site processing, production of sterile ash residues, and reduced operation costs through energy offsets. However, incineration may be associated with high capital costs, potential need of fuels for process maintenance, and the requirement of specialized personnel, not to mention high costs in air pollution control systems (Kreith, 2002). RDF systems convert solid waste into a fuel with low moisture content and uniform size while yielding lower amounts of ash than other types of WtE. There have been different kinds of RDF products, such as “fluff RDF” (MSW separation and shredding), “densified RDF” (production of highly-densed pellets), “dust RDF” (powdered fuel with high combustion properties), and “wet pulp RDF” (production of slurry-like fuel). The product formed is aimed to be a substitute/supplement to fossil fuels in industrial practices (Schwarz and Brunner, 1983). While these systems improve the properties of MSW as they are separated into combustible fractions, RDF technologies also require high costs regarding air pollution control (Kumar, 2000). Contrary to common incineration, pyrolysis involves the “distilled destruction” of solid MSW components through the application of heat in an anoxic environment. As such, this process will yield endothermic reactions, and the gases that are produced (mainly CO, CH4) are combusted. Even though this process does not entail the injection of much air, minute concentrations of oxygen (less than that of optimal air/fuel ratio) are added at startup (Schwarz and Brunner, 1983). Recyclable materials such as glass, 23 metals, and cardboard can be recovered prior to processing. When the process is complete, the off-gas can be stored. The resulting byproduct is a solid termed “charcoal.” Nevertheless, pyrolysis has not been a widely successful technology. Complications include increasingly difficult gas clean-up and the formation of “slag” from recoverable materials (if not removed at the beginning of the process), thus compromising the system’s integrity and proper functions (Kreith, 2002). Extracting heat from fuels depends on the efficiency of mixing them with air, as is the case of the gasification WtE technology. Gaseous fuels provide a greater amount of heat to be extracted. In this case, solid waste such as biomass can be converted into a fuel. The material that is extracted after the solid waste is treated and sorted is fed into a gasification chamber, which in turn produces power after cooling and cleaning through a gas engine connected to an electric generator. The result is a high quality gas that is easier to handle and has great thermal efficiency. While gasification offers the added advantages of creating less air pollution, it may turn out to be a costly endeavor to maintain the systems in optimum conditions (Kumar, 2000). Other approaches have been reported. Plasma arc systems use a high temperature heat source (“plasma arc flame”) created by passing a highly ionized gas through two electrodes discharging a high voltage. The high temperatures (5,600 – 30,000 °F) break molecules into individual atoms, followed by controlled cooling, thus creating a synthetic fuel gas (Kumar, 2000). Another novel technology is termed “Thermoselect.” This process produces a synthetic gas through gasification and melting of waste in a highly controlled environment. The “syngas” allows for the generation of electricity at a thermal 24 efficiency higher than what a conventional WtE plant (using a steam turbine) can achieve. The gas cleaning process may be quite complex, but this type of technology has been reported to have much lower emissions (Psomopoulos et al, 2009). The major GHGs emitted from WtE facilities are CO2 and N2O. The latter is strictly associated with the combustion of MSW. However, the former is typically derived from the combustion of solid waste, and the fuels required for starting and maintaining the process. Moreover, CO2 emissions can also be emitted from equipment commonly used in landfills where the ash has to be disposed. Nevertheless, the product (either RDF or energy) can achieve GHG emission reductions in the sense that fossil fuels (often coal) are potentially replaced (Papageourgiou et al, 2009a). In fact, coal-fired power plants often emit greater amounts of SO2, NO2, and fossil CO2 (Kaplan et al, 2009). In this respect, the versatility of a WtE plays an important role in the amounts of GHGs emitted. Papageorgiou et al (2009b) studied various scenarios using Life Cycle Analysis (LCA), in which different products were generated from incineration. It was concluded that recovering both electricity and heat (“combined heat and power”) meant greater GHG emission savings, followed by electricity recovery only. 2.3.2 Modeling GHG Emissions in Solid Waste Management As environmental awareness increase among public and private sectors, so do the methods to minimize environmental impacts of both waste management practices and products manufacturing. A prominent method used to understand these effects is the Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) (USEPA, 2002a). This technique allows for the study of the lifespan of goods, in which inputs are commonly the raw materials and energy, while outputs 25 may be pollution (air or water emissions), by-products, and wastes. A main advantage of LCA is that it allows for wise decision-making regarding which goods result in the least impact to the environment. However, depending on the depth of the study, it can turn out to be a resource- and time-intensive effort (SAIC, 2006). Many tools have been developed under a LCA basis. Using the knowledge and application of LCA, USEPA, its partners, and other organizations have developed tools that allow users from a variety of backgrounds to determine the environmental benefits associated with solid waste management. Some programs may target the entire life-cycle of various practices or products, but there are certain calculators that work specifically for a particular MSW management method. Examples of these calculators are USEPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM), the Northeast Recycling Council Environmental Benefits Calculator (NERC-EBC), the Recycled Content Tool (ReCon), the National Recycling Council’s Environmental Benefits Calculator (NRC-EBC), the Durable Goods Calculator (DGC), the Cities for Climate Protection Greenhouse Gas Emissions software, and the Municipal Solid Waste Decision Support Tool (MSW-DST) (USEPA, 2002c). WARM was the tool of choice for the reported study. This model explores a wide variety of MSW components managed through landfilling, composting, combustion, and source reduction, and serves as an inexpensive and comprehensive planning tool for both public and private sectors in future waste management intiatives. 26 2.3.2.1 Waste Reduction Model (WARM) The USEPA tool WARM is designed to aid solid waste planners and organizations so that they may voluntarily track and report GHG emission reductions from their MSW management approaches. It calculates GHG emissions of a business-asusual scenario and an alternative practice in metric tons of carbon equivalent (MTCE), metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MTCO2E), and energy units consumed (million BTU) from a range of material types commonly characterized in a solid waste generation stream. The latest version of WARM, used in the current project, was released in August 2010 (USEPA, 2010). The emission factors from the material types recognized in WARM represent the GHG emissions associated with managing one short ton (2,000 lbs) of MSW by landfilling, recycling, composting, combusting, or source reduction (Appendices X XII). The basic concept can be exemplified through the following formula (USEPA, 2010): Material type: aluminum (1 short ton × -13.61 MTCO2E/short ton) - (1 short ton × 0.04 MTCO2E/short ton) = -13.65 MTCO2E ↑ ↑ Alternative: recycling Business-as-Usual: landfilling Equation 1. Example of WARM calculations (Source: USEPA, 2010) The foundations for WARM arise from various background reports and studies, which have explored emission factors from specific materials. These extensive research 27 efforts were compiled by USEPA in its report on GHG emissions entitled Solid Waste Management and Greenhouse Gas Assessment of Emissions and Sinks (2002b). The latest documentation is structured around the materials’ life cycle and the associated impact of waste management practices. WARM assumes that each management practice influences net GHG emissions as follows (USEPA, 2002b): Source reduction: Emissions throughout the life-cycle of materials are avoided Recycling: Reduction of emissions due to the use of fewer virgin input materials for the manufacture of new products Composting: Composting of materials such as paper, yard waste, and food scraps (or related organic material) results in carbon storage Landfilling: Results in CH4 emissions and carbon storage. Technological advances have allowed landfills to capture and flare gas. If used for energy recovery, the flaring process would offset emissions from fossil fuel combustion for energy generation. Combustion: Results in offsets in GHG emissions as it is used to generate electricity while displacing fossil fuel-derived energy. WARM employs a life-cycle analysis. However, this approach is streamlined and centered on waste generation rather than raw material extraction, as the point of this tool is to compare choices in waste management. In terms of emissions from energy use it is necessary to understand and input the current energy mix in order to establish a context of emission reductions associated with energy recovery from landfill gas flaring systems or combustion. Such information is determined by inputting the resource mix of the state 28 of interest as determined by data from the Emissions & Generation Resource Integrated Database (eGRID) (Hartwell, 2011). Transportation of materials also plays a key role in WARM. Average distances to management facilities (landfills, combustion plants, recycling facilities, and composts) represent a source of GHG emissions from fossil fuels consumed by MSW-hauling trucks (USEPA, 2002b). The mode of transportation included in WARM is a diesel-fueled vehicle (Hartwell, 2010). A distance component is required for the operation of WARM. Even though a default distance can be selected (20 miles to each MSW management facility), a geographic information system (GIS) can determine these distances along a road network in order to model the emissions and energy use impacts of MSW transportation more accurately. 2.4 Geographic Information Systems and Solid Waste Management There are a myriad of uses for GIS: planning, monitoring, assessment, decision- making processes, among others. In waste management, it has become increasingly important to reduce costs of municipal solid waste collection, transportation, storage, and disposal; GIS can be a cost-effective tool that can facilitate many waste-related processes, as well as serve as an efficient analytic tool. Traditional concerns have been the search for suitable locations to place waste collection bins, as well as considering the estimates of waste generation and on-site storage capacity. The improper siting of bins may result in increased hauling and maintenance costs. Vijay et al (2008) addressed these concerns by implementing a “p- 29 median constraint model” on a GIS platform. This model identified centers to locate a bin by minimizing total weighted distance from this center to the demand nodes. The algorithm implemented allowed for proper site evaluation based on practical and aesthetic considerations. The resulting sites allowed for easy access to these bins and proximity between bins (Vijay et al, 2008). Another use of GIS in waste management deals with routing and waste collection schedules. Chang et al (1997) developed a multi-objective model for collection vehicle routing and scheduling for solid waste management systems within a GIS environment. Three goals were proposed in this analysis in order to ensure maximum consensus and minimum disruption: 1) route consolidation, 2) preservation of existing collection points where possible, and 3) management of resources among sub-districts (haulers and other vehicles would operate under the same rules and conditions). The resulting model was relatively successful in minimizing the total waste collection distance, costs, and time (Chang et al, 1997). In order to implement a successful recycling program, several physical and nonphysical considerations must be taken into account: land, number of depots, number of trucks available for pick-up, pick-up frequency, size and number of bins, awareness, and acceptance (Valeo et al, 1998). Valeo et al (1998) sought to implement a locationallocation model within a GIS environment with the objective of designing a recycling depot scheme for 22,000 people. This model optimizes the locations of centers and allocates consumers or demand to those centers. Two schemes were considered: location of depots within walking distance and within driving distance. It is noteworthy that the 30 model can be adjusted to changes in demand, making this approach both effective and efficient for planning and engineering purposes (Valeo et al, 1998). As stated before, GIS can also be implemented as a monitoring tool in waste management. Green (2009) employed GIS in order to monitor the properties of landfills in United Kingdom. The studied properties included areas of landfill liners, location of leachate piping systems, and records of filling and volume parameters, among others. It was also observed that GIS can also be used to monitor landfills after their closure. This is an important factor as excessive surface settlement of closed landfill sites can cause ponding, among other environmental concerns (Green, 2009). 2.5 Site of Study: Puerto Rico 2.5.1 General Features The island of Puerto Rico is located between latitudes 17°45’ and 18°30’N and longitudes 65°45’ to 67°15’W (Daly et al, 2003). The main island has a total area of approximately 4,421 m2, with two out of a total 78 municipalities as neighboring islands (Figure 2). The island’s most characteristic topographic feature is a central chain of mountains (“Cordillera Central”) crossing from east to west. Some of its mountains reach elevations of over 4,000 feet (CSA Group, 2008). The highest peak is “Cerro Punta,” reaching an altitude of approximately 4,389 feet above sea level (Carter and Elsner, 1997). These elevations descend towards the flatter areas of the coast; the majority of the island has elevations of less than 1,000 feet (Figure 3). The various changes in elevation from the coasts towards the Cordillera Central are an important factor in inducing 31 orographic precipitation. On average, annual precipitation is approximately 69 inches; however this value varies by region, with the most in “Sierra de Luquillo” (“El Yunque” Rainforest) and the least in the south and western parts of the island. Furthermore, precipitation changes significantly throughout the year: an initial drought period occurs between January and April, followed by a wet period from May until June. A second drought period lasts until August, and finally there is an intense wet period for the rest of the year. The latter corresponds to the storm season (CSA Group, 2008). Humidity is generally high due to the surrounding warm ocean waters (Daly et al, 2003). Temperature does not vary significantly throughout the year, with an average of 82 °F. There is, typically, a difference of 5 – 6 °F in the northwestern coastal areas between the warmer and cooler months. In contrast, there is greater temperature variability in the inner regions due to the diverse elevations. Easterly trade winds are predominant throughout the year (average wind speeds of 6 – 9 miles per hour) and may be accelerated by the mountainous areas (CSA Group, 2008). 32 Figure 2. Municipalities of Puerto Rico (Basemap source: ESRI) Figure 3. Topography of Puerto Rico (Adapted from: CSA Group, 2008) 33 2.5.2 Climate Change and Puerto Rico The island of Puerto Rico, despite being a non-incorporated territory of the United States (Commonwealth) and thus enjoying slightly higher advantages in the Caribbean region compared to other islands, is vulnerable to climate change impacts (Hoey and Diaz-Mendez, 2009). A report by the Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University (Bueno et al, 2008) explores this premise from an economic perspective. Bueno et al (2008) explain that concerns of higher local temperatures will jeopardize the tourism industry eventually. Furthermore, Puerto Rico may be susceptible to significant threats such as beach erosion from sea level rise and the development of stronger hurricanes, ocean surges and heavy rains. A major portion of the island’s population and economic activity are found in coastal areas, especially in the San Juan metropolitan area, an important tourist attraction. In the inner parts of the island, where there are pronounced elevations, vulnerability to landslide hazards could be aggravated by heavy rainfall. As population density increases, there will be a greater need for construction, which unfortunately, may be sited in areas with dangerous slopes. Furthermore, energy consumption will increase, primarily from electricity generation and transportation needs, thus contributing to greater dependence on fossil fuels, increased emissions, and higher costs. It was determined by Bueno et al (2008) that the costs of not rising to the climate change challenge may spell losses of billions of dollars over the years, especially if the previous issues are considered (Table 1). 34 Table 1. Costs of Inaction against Climate Change for Puerto Rico (Source: Bueno et al, 2008) Total Cost of Inaction Study Category (US Billion Dollars) 2025 2050 2075 2100 Storms 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 Tourism 0.2 0.5 0.7 1 Infrastructure 0.8 1.6 2.4 3.2 Total 1.2 2.5 3.8 5.2 Percentage of GDP 1.4% 2.8% 4.4% 6% (based on 2004 GDP) Puerto Rico has fragile ecosystems, such as the karst regions in the south and northern regions of the island (the latter being the most prominent). As stated by the National Wildlife Federation (Hoey Diaz-Mendez, 2009), these areas are home to approximately 1,300 species flora and fauna. Thirty are considered to be endangered, like the Puerto Rican parrot (Amazona vittata). Changes in sea water temperatures and nutrients could affect the lives of marine animals and plants, as well as increase coral bleaching (which in turn endangers this important tourist attraction). Endangered marine turtles are at risk as increasing sea levels flood nesting grounds on beaches. Populations of endemic amphibians, such as the “coquí” (genus Eleutherodactylus), have declined, a phenomenon that has been correlated with altered precipitation patterns (Hoey and DiazMendez, 2009). 2.5.3 Solid Waste Management in Puerto Rico The Solid Waste Authority of Puerto Rico (or Autoridad de Desperdicios Sólidos, ADS in Spanish) is the government agency in charge of developing waste management programs. Puerto Rico has a solid waste generation factor of 5.56 lbs. per person per day 35 (3.91 lbs. per person per day excluding C&D). However, the diversion rate stands currently at 15.3% (MP Engineers of PR, 2008). By contrast, United States’ MSW generation factor as of 2008 was 4.50 lbs. per person per day (excluding C&D), of which approximately 33% is diverted (USEPA, 2009). Some waste management practices in Puerto Rico that have been available traditionally include landfilling and recycling, although the former has been the dominant course of action (Carim et al, 2007). By 1980 there were approximately 62 landfills operating on the island, most of which posed serious environmental problems, primarily leaching. ADS has taken the responsibility of developing safer waste management plans. In particular, approximately 32 landfills were closed due to non-compliance with environmental standards, and some of those currently operational are expected to reach their capacity soon (Miranda and Hale, 2005). ADS serves all 78 municipalities in Puerto Rico and implements a variety of MSW management strategies. The measures currently available for waste management in Puerto Rico include: source reduction and recycle programs, nine resource recovery facilities, four composting facilities, 17 transfer stations, and 30 sanitary landfills (Figure 4). Some of these facilities are privately owned. Furthermore, municipalities can dispose of their own waste (by hauling MSW to other municipalities or in their own landfills) or contract a private company, ADS also implements and monitors recycling programs among community groups, private commerce and industries, schools, and government entities. Among these are collections of recyclables via “blue bags,” drop-off programs, and other source separation programs (MP Engineers of PR, 2008). Improvements and 36 additions to current management practices have been proposed under the public policy document Dynamic Itinerary of Infrastructure Projects (2008). In this document, ADS explores the implementation of new MSW management initiatives through 2030. Figure 4. Existing MSW Management Infrastructure (as of 2008) (Source: MP Engineers, 2008) 2.5.4 Waste Characterization for Puerto Rico Wehran Inc. (2003) classified the composition of MSW in Puerto Rico through a study of twelve landfills and two transfer stations in 2003 (Figure 5). Their study is used as one of the founding concepts for the Dynamic Itinerary for Infrastructure Projects in order to draw projections of waste allocation and diversion strategies. This type of project is typically carried out by collecting, sorting, and weighing waste generated at different facilities and classifying the material into the appropriate composition categories. The accuracy of such a study and its frequency depend largely on costs (Dijols, 2010). 37 Figure 5. Waste Characterization for Puerto Rico (% by weight) (Source: Wehran, Inc., 2003) 2.5.5 Energy Use and Production in Puerto Rico Based on information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) (2011) for 2008, Puerto Rico consumes approximately 170 thousand barrels of petroleum products per day, 26 billion cubic feet of natural gas per year, and 1,653 thousand short tons of coal per year. The island consumes 0.389 quadrillion Btu (EIA, 2011). As a primary input for electricity generation, approximately 90% are imports of oil from the United States and Caribbean suppliers. Estimated electricity generation for 2002 was 19.2 billion kWh (Miranda and Hale, 2005). The most recent energy mix, however, as estimated by the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA), is 68% oil-based, 15% natural gas (LNG), 15% coal, and 2% hydro-power (PREPA, 2009). 38 CHAPTER III METHODS This study focuses on the quantification of GHG and energy savings of two alternative solid waste management scenarios (“Base Case” and “Backup Case”) compared to a business-as-usual (“No Action Case”) scenario for the years 2010, 2020, and 2030. Table 2 shows the population projections, solid waste generation, and projected MSW generation assumed for all scenarios (ADS calculations include C&D debris). The scenarios explored were proposed by ADS in their public policy document Dynamic Itinerary for Infrastructure Projects (2008). Table 2. Population and MSW Generation in Puerto Rico, 2010 – 2030 (Source: MP Engineers of PR, 2008) MSW Generation Factor Projected MSW Year Population Projection (lbs. per person per day) Generation (tons) 2010 4,030,152 5.56 4,089,395 2020 4,172,242 5.56 4,233,574 2030 4,256,441 5.56 4,319,011 3.1 WARM Inputs This section outlines the information to be considered in WARM. ADS proposed two major alternative scenarios for handling MSW through the year 2030. The scenarios modeled in the Dynamic Itinerary assumed that the waste generation factor of 5.56 lbs. per person per day remains constant throughout the planning period. This factor is claimed to have been corroborated by comparing the waste generation factors of 4.5 lbs. per person per day for the United States, which remained constant from the 1990s through 2003 (MP Engineers of PR, 2008). The figures calculated by ADS show the tonnage to be disposed (i.e., combustion and/or landfilling), and the amount to be diverted (i.e., recycled and/or composted). The rates for the latter are determined using the following formula (ADS, 2007): (Recovered materials / Generated MSW) x 100 = % Diversion rate Equation 2. Calculation of Diversion Rate for Puerto Rico (Source: ADS, 2007) The following strategies have been proposed to further integrate waste management efforts, expand the current infrastructure, and attempt to re-allocate MSW in Puerto Rico effectively. A brief description of each case as explained in the Dynamic Itinerary is shown; Tables 3 – 11 provide the inputs for WARM calculations. 3.1.1 WARM Alternative Scenario 1 (“Base Case”) The first alternative MSW management scenario is referred to as the “Base Case” scenario. This includes the optimal MSW management strategies to be developed in Puerto Rico. The projections from ADS indicate that there will be eight landfills in operation with 17.8 years of useful life left at the end of the planning period (year 2030). The following assumptions were considered by ADS (inputs on Tables 3 – 5; maps on Figures 6 - 8) (MP Engineers, 2008): 40 Diversion rate reaches a 35% goal by 2016, and is assumed to remain constant through 2030. Two WtE facilities are constructed: the Northeastern plant processes approximately 1,560 tons per day and is in service by 2013, while another, constructed in the Northwestern region, processes 1,350 tons per day and is online by 2012. Once the landfills close, the MSW loads from various municipalities are transferred to the new WtE facilities. Existing landfills will use all of their remaining useful life before closing. Remaining landfills are expanded. Transfer of waste from closed to operating facilities is carried out through the use of transfer stations (TS). A new landfill is established in Peñuelas in 2010. Figure 6. MSW Management Infrastructure for "Base Case," 2010 (Source: MP Engineers, 2008) 41 Figure 7. MSW Management Infrastructure for "Base Case," 2020 (Source: MP Engineers, 2008) Figure 8. MSW Management Infrastructure for "Base Case," 2030 (Source: MP Engineers, 2008) 42 Table 3. WARM MSW Inputs for “Base Case”, 2010 Materials Tons Generated Tons Landfilled Tons Recycled Tons Composted Tons Combusted Polyethylene 44,983 34,637 10,346 0 0 HDPE 118,592 91,316 27,276 0 0 PVC, LDPE, PP, PS, Mixed 265,811 204,674 61,136 0 0 High Quality Paper 53,162 40,935 12,227 0 0 Low Quality Paper 355,777 273,949 81,829 0 0 Corrugated Carton 380,314 292,842 87,472 0 0 Ferrous Metals 384,403 295,990 88,413 0 0 Non-Ferrous Metals 44,983 34,637 10,346 0 0 Yard Waste 834,237 642,362 0 191,874 0 Organic Waste 527,532 406,200 0 121,332 0 Glass (all types) 98,145 75,572 22,573 0 0 Household hazardous waste 20,447 15,744 4,703 0 0 Not defined 257,632 198,377 59,255 0 0 Table 4. WARM MSW Inputs for “Base Case”, 2020 Materials Tons Generated Tons Landfilled Tons Recycled Tons Composted Tons Combusted Polyethylene 46,569 18,953 18,099 0 9,517 HDPE 122,774 49,968 47,716 0 25,090 PVC, LDPE, PP, PS, Mixed 275,182 111,997 106,949 0 56,236 High Quality Paper 55,036 22,399 21,390 0 11,247 Low Quality Paper 368,321 149,904 143,148 0 75,269 Corrugated Carton 393,722 160,242 153,020 0 80,460 Ferrous Metals 397,956 161,965 154,665 0 81,325 Non-Ferrous Metals 46,569 18,953 18,099 0 9,517 Yard Waste 863,649 351,500 0 335,656 176,493 Organic Waste 546,131 222,272 0 212,253 111,606 Glass (all types) 101,606 41,353 39,489 0 20,764 Household hazardous waste 21,168 8,615 8,227 0 4,326 Not defined 266,715 108,551 103,659 0 54,505 Table 5. WARM MSW Inputs for “Base Case”, 2030 Materials Tons Generated Tons Landfilled Tons Recycled Tons Composted Tons Combusted Polyethylene 47,509 19,228 18,483 0 9,798 HDPE 125,251 50,692 48,728 0 25,832 PVC, LDPE, PP, PS, Mixed 280,736 113,620 109,217 0 57,898 High Quality Paper 56,147 22,724 21,843 0 11,580 Low Quality Paper 375,754 152,076 146,183 0 77,495 Corrugated Carton 401,668 162,564 156,265 0 82,839 Ferrous Metals 405,987 164,312 157,945 0 83,730 Non-Ferrous Metals 47,509 19,228 18,483 0 9,798 Yard Waste 881,078 356,592 0 342,774 181,712 Organic Waste 557,152 225,492 0 216,754 114,906 Glass (all types) 103,656 41,952 40,326 0 21,378 Household hazardous waste 21,595 8,740 8,401 0 4,454 Not defined 272,098 110,124 105,857 0 56,117 43 3.1.2 WARM Alternative Scenario 2 (“Backup Case”) This scenario is a substitute, in case the “Base Case” is not implemented. Projections for the strategies of the “Backup Case” demonstrate that by 2030 there will be eight landfills in operation with approximately 7.5 years of useful life left. Furthermore, the development of WtE facilities is not pursued. The following assumptions are considered in this scenario (see Tables 6 – 8 for inputs; maps on Figures 9 - 11): MSW diversion rate in Puerto Rico reaches the 35% goal in 2026. Existing landfills use all their remaining useful life before closing. Expansion of landfills (similar to “Base Case”) Transfer of waste from closed to operating landfills is facilitated through the use of transfer stations. Figure 9. MSW Management Infrastructure for "Backup Case," 2010 (Source: MP Engineers, 2008) 44 Figure 10. MSW Management Infrastructure for "Backup Case," 2020 (Source: MP Engineers, 2008) Figure 11. MSW Management Infrastructure for "Backup Case," 2030 (Source: MP Engineers, 2008) 45 Table 6. WARM MSW Inputs for “Backup Case”, 2010 Materials Tons Generated Tons Landfilled Tons Recycled Tons Composted Tons Combusted Polyethylene 44,983 36,437 8,547 0 0 HDPE 118,592 96,060 22,533 0 0 PVC, LDPE, PP, PS, Mixed 265,811 215,307 50,504 0 0 High Quality Paper 53,162 43,061 10,101 0 0 Low Quality Paper 355,777 288,180 67,598 0 0 Corrugated Carton 380,314 308,054 72,260 0 0 Ferrous Metals 384,403 311,367 73,037 0 0 Non-Ferrous Metals 44,983 36,437 8,547 0 0 Yard Waste 834,237 675,732 0 158,505 0 Organic Waste 527,532 427,301 0 100,231 0 Glass (all types) 98,145 79,498 18,648 0 0 Household hazardous waste 20,447 16,562 3,885 0 0 Not defined 257,632 208,682 48,950 0 0 Table 7. WARM MSW Inputs for “Backup Case”, 2020 Materials Tons Generated Tons Landfilled Tons Recycled Tons Composted Tons Combusted Polyethylene 46,569 33,064 13,505 0 0 HDPE 122,774 87,169 35,604 0 0 PVC, LDPE, PP, PS, Mixed 275,182 195,379 79,803 0 0 High Quality Paper 55,036 39,076 15,961 0 0 Low Quality Paper 368,321 261,508 106,813 0 0 Corrugated Carton 393,722 279,543 114,179 0 0 Ferrous Metals 397,956 282,549 115,407 0 0 Non-Ferrous Metals 46,569 33,064 13,505 0 0 Yard Waste 863,649 613,191 0 250,458 0 Organic Waste 546,131 387,753 0 158,378 0 Glass (all types) 101,606 72,140 29,466 0 0 Household hazardous waste 21,168 15,029 6,139 0 0 Not defined 266,715 189,368 77,347 0 0 Table 8. WARM MSW Inputs for “Backup Case”, 2030 Materials Tons Generated Tons Landfilled Tons Recycled Tons Composted Tons Combusted Polyethylene 47,509 30,879 16,630 0 0 HDPE 125,251 81,408 43,844 0 0 PVC, LDPE, PP, PS, Mixed 280,736 182,465 98,271 0 0 High Quality Paper 56,147 36,493 19,654 0 0 Low Quality Paper 375,754 244,223 131,531 0 0 Corrugated Carton 401,668 261,066 140,602 0 0 Ferrous Metals 405,987 263,873 142,114 0 0 Non-Ferrous Metals 47,509 30,879 16,630 0 0 Yard Waste 881,078 572,660 0 308,418 0 Organic Waste 557,152 362,123 0 195,029 0 Glass (all types) 103,656 67,372 36,284 0 0 Household hazardous waste 21,595 14,036 7,559 0 0 Not defined 272,098 176,851 95,247 0 0 46 3.1.3 WARM Business-as-Usual Scenario (“No Action Case”) The final waste management scenario is the “No Action Case”. This scenario projects how quickly the currently-available disposal capacity will be depleted if no future actions are taken and no growth in the current diversion rate occurs. While the Dynamic Itinerary suggests that Puerto Rico will run out of landfill space by 2018, the useful life of the current landfills is currently under revision (Rosario, 2011). The following assumptions are considered (see Tables 9 – 11 for inputs; maps on Figures 12 14): The current diversion rate of 15.3% remains constant through 2030. No alternative technology processing facilities are implemented during the period. Existing landfills use all their remaining useful life before closing. No landfill expansions are implemented. Transfer of waste from closed to operating landfills is facilitated through the use of transfer stations. A new landfill is established at Peñuelas in 2010. 47 Figure 12. MSW Management Infrastructure for "No Action Case," 2010 (Sources: ADS; MP Engineers, 2008) Figure 13. MSW Management Infrastructure for "No Action Case," 2020 (Sources: ADS; MP Engineers, 2008) 48 Figure 14. MSW Management Infrastructure for "No Action Case," 2030 (Sources: ADS; MP Engineers, 2008) Table 9. WARM MSW Inputs for “No Action Case”, 2010 Materials Tons Generated Tons Landfilled Tons Recycled Tons Composted Tons Combusted Polyethylene 44,983 38,101 6,882 0 0 HDPE 118,592 100,448 18,145 0 0 PVC, LDPE, PP, PS, Mixed 265,811 225,142 40,669 0 0 High Quality Paper 53,162 45,028 8,134 0 0 Low Quality Paper 355,777 301,343 54,434 0 0 Corrugated Carton 380,314 322,126 58,188 0 0 Ferrous Metals 384,403 325,589 58,814 0 0 Non-Ferrous Metals 44,983 38,101 6,882 0 0 Yard Waste 834,237 706,598 0 127,638 0 Organic Waste 527,532 446,820 0 80,712 0 Glass (all types) 98,145 83,129 15,016 0 0 Household hazardous waste 20,447 17,319 3,128 0 0 Not defined 257,632 218,214 39,418 0 0 49 Table 10. WARM MSW Inputs for “No Action Case”, 2020 Materials Tons Generated Tons Landfilled Tons Recycled Tons Composted Tons Combusted Polyethylene 46,569 39,444 7,125 0 0 HDPE 122,774 103,989 18,784 0 0 PVC, LDPE, PP, PS, Mixed 275,182 233,079 42,103 0 0 High Quality Paper 55,036 46,616 8,421 0 0 Low Quality Paper 368,321 311,968 56,353 0 0 Corrugated Carton 393,722 333,483 60,240 0 0 Ferrous Metals 397,956 337,069 60,887 0 0 Non-Ferrous Metals 46,569 39,444 7,125 0 0 Yard Waste 863,649 731,511 0 132,138 0 Organic Waste 546,131 462,573 0 83,558 0 Glass (all types) 101,606 86,060 15,546 0 0 Household hazardous waste 21,168 17,929 3,239 0 0 Not defined 266,715 225,908 40,807 0 0 Table 11. WARM MSW Inputs for “No Action Case”, 2030 Materials Tons Generated Tons Landfilled Tons Recycled Tons Composted Tons Combusted Polyethylene 47,509 40,240 7,269 0 0 HDPE 125,251 106,088 19,163 0 0 PVC, LDPE, PP, PS, Mixed 280,736 237,783 42,953 0 0 High Quality Paper 56,147 47,557 8,591 0 0 Low Quality Paper 375,754 318,264 57,490 0 0 Corrugated Carton 401,668 340,213 61,455 0 0 Ferrous Metals 405,987 343,871 62,116 0 0 Non-Ferrous Metals 47,509 40,240 7,269 0 0 Yard Waste 881,078 746,273 0 134,805 0 Organic Waste 557,152 471,908 0 85,244 0 Glass (all types) 103,656 87,797 15,859 0 0 Household hazardous waste 21,595 18,291 3,304 0 0 Not defined 272,098 230,467 41,631 0 0 3.2 Transportation of MSW WARM incorporates the impacts of transporting MSW to landfills, composting facilities, recycling facilities, or WtE plants. The user may allow the default distances (20 miles towards any management facility) or define them according to particular needs or plans. For the current project, distances were determined using ArcGIS (Environmental Systems Research Institute – ESRI). This section explains the necessary steps taken in 50 order to complete this procedure. The GIS data (state roads and street level data) were obtained from the Highway and Transportation Authority of Puerto Rico (Autoridad de Carreteras y Transportación – ACT in Spanish). The road data was converted into a network dataset, a required format for the ArcGIS extension Network Analyst (Figure 15). The built-in extension Network Analyst offers the user a variety of analysis tools to solve problems in the transportation arena. Researchers and analysts often use this software to determine the least-cost road network paths between several origins and destinations. An example is the Origin – Destination (OD) Cost Matrix analysis. When configuring this type of analysis, the user can specify the number of destinations to determine and a maximum distance to search over a road network. Even though its output is represented by straight lines, the analysis is still carried out using the road data input (ESRI, 2011). Due to the complexity of the MSW transfer procedures over the years in question, several OD Cost Matrices were created. “Centroids” (i.e., the geometric center of a polygon) for each municipality were calculated in order to serve as locations. The origins and destinations used in the analysis were (see Appendices I – IX for detailed tables): Municipalities Composting Facilities Municipalities MRF Municipalities Landfills Municipalities Transfer Stations Transfer Stations Landfills and/or WTE 51 Pre-processing consisted in creating the necessary files for analysis. The “roads” shapefile obtained was first converted into a network dataset in ArcCatalog. The defaults were selected in order to create the dataset. However, in the “Connectivity” menu, the values were set for “Any Vertex,” thus allowing turns at any point in a road segment and not just at the end vertex. Next, the dataset attributes were specified to be based on “shape length,” which is the default value when no other attribute is specified. Directions were of no concern in this study. Once the necessary parameters are set, ArcCatalog builds the network dataset, resulting in the creation of two network feature classes: nodes (representing the points of intersection between line segments), and edges (representing the actual road geometry, and the basis of distance measurements). The newly-created network dataset was added to a map document in ArcMap for analysis. Once there, the Network Analyst toolbar was used. From the options offered for analysis, only located “Origins” and “Destinations,” and “Lines” were used. In the Network Analyst window, these were loaded by selecting “Load Locations,” taking the “Centroids” shapefile as the layer of choice for both origins and destinations, based on the information shown in the Dynamic Itinerary for each case. For example, in the case of hauling waste from municipalities to compost sites, the chosen municipalities were set as the origin while the centroids known to have these facilities were set as destinations. This was carried out individually for every case, year of interest, and type of MSW management facility (landfill, MRF, transfer station, compost facility, or WtE) in order to obtain the distances required in WARM. 52 Before the analysis is run, certain parameters must be set in the OD Cost Matrix layer properties. In this window, the “Analysis Settings” were set as defaults, except “UTurns” were specified to be allowed only at dead-ends and intersections. Second, “Length” was selected as the accumulation attribute in the “Accumulation” tab. Finally, a high search tolerance value was selected in order to ensure that all the locations were found by Network Analyst within the road network. Once this procedure is completed, the analysis was run by selecting “Solve.” The OD Cost Matrix layer now included values in the “Lines” feature class. Since the search tolerance was set to be high, the analysis connected every origin with all found destinations. Therefore, the resulting feature class was reviewed, and only the paths for the researched origins and destinations were selected, thus tying each participating municipality with the one MSW management option, depending on the case studied. This process was carried out for every OD Cost Matrix layer developed in this project. The coordinate system of the road network utilizes meters as distance units; therefore, these were converted to miles in order to be used in WARM. The street level distances for every municipality were extracted using the tool “Intersect” and then averages were determined with the “Summary Statistics” analysis tool. The measurements were then added to the distances computed in the OD Cost matrices, thus including curbside collection in the analysis. Finally, the average distances towards any facility were calculated and entered in WARM. 53 Figure 15. Road Network of Puerto Rico (highways only) (Source: ACT, 2010) 3.3 Study Assumptions and Limitations The study took into account the assumptions by ADS for each scenario. However, under the “No Action” scenario it is assumed that the landfills proposed to be closed during the years 2007 – 2010 are still in operation (applicable to the WARM analysis for 2010). MSW composition is the same for all scenarios and studied years (MP Engineers, 2008). The main recovery strategy for all inorganic materials is considered to be recycling while composting is the main strategy for organic waste. LFG combustion is considered to be negligible, as there are only two landfills out of 32 with such capability; the gas is not converted to energy (MP Engineers, 2008). 54 The vehicle type considered by WARM is a diesel-fueled truck (Hartwell, 2011). Puerto Rico’s resource mix is not included in the eGRID database. Therefore, the “National Average” option was selected as the energy analysis input in WARM. The facilities shown on maps and the distances from municipalities towards any facility are based mainly on research and interpretation from the Dynamic Itinerary of Infrastructure Projects, the Strategic Plan for the Management of Solid Residues (PEMRS, 2003), and interviews with ADS personnel from the Planning and Engineering Division. However, the position of facilities on the maps are meant for study purposes only and do not represent their actual locations in Puerto Rico. The researched documents do not show which municipalities participate in composting; therefore, municipalities adjacent to composting facilities were selected for this study in order to show the impacts of hauling organic waste. ADS has determined that a certain percentage of C&D debris will be combusted. However, WARM does not include this option in detail. Furthermore, USEPA does not include C&D a component in MSW (USEPA, 2009). Thus, these materials were not included in this study. 55 CHAPTER IV RESULTS AND DISCUSSION The results from this study are presented in three sections. First, results and analysis from MSW transportation through the Puerto Rican road network are disclosed. As stated in Chapter III, the determination of distances to solid waste management facilities is a necessary component in WARM. Secondly, the GHG emission estimates from WARM are discussed, both as total and per ton of each MSW components managed (per ton basis). Finally, WARM estimates for energy usage per case are presented (total and per ton basis). Furthermore, certain issues about the development and implementation of the studied scenarios are discussed. 4.1 Transportation Analysis Average distances covering the stages from curbside collection to any MSW management option were calculated using ArcGIS Network Analyst (Table 12). These values represent the mileage that the collective MSW generated in a given case would be hauled to other municipalities housing the corresponding waste management facility. The closure of landfills over the years (especially in the northern part of the island) would mean greater distances would be travelled in order to dispose of waste in the remaining landfills. However, recycling and composting of waste may be more accessible to several municipalities as more facilities are constructed, even though the decisions to send the recyclable material to any processing facility would most likely be determined by the monetary value that could be gained (Rosario, 2011). Despite the premise that only average distances in any given year are used in WARM, each waste management scenario has distinct characteristics regarding hauling distances. Maps are shown for each case and year studied (Figures 16 – 49). In each map, the lines represent the trips from municipalities to waste management facilities (symbolized by icons). Table 12. MSW Hauling Distances as Determined by ArcGIS Network Analyst MSW Management Facility Case Average Distances to Facilities (miles) 2010 2020 2030 Base 38 38 45 Backup 43 54 56 Landfills NoAction 29 54 61 Average 37 49 54 Base 19 17 17 Backup 19 18 18 MRF NoAction 19 19 19 Average 19 18 18 Base 9 9 9 Backup 9 9 9 Compost NoAction 9 9 9 Average 9 9 9 Base 0 30 30 WTE Backup 0 0 0 NoAction 0 0 0 4.1.1 Transportation in “Base Case” The “Base Case” (WARM Alternative 1) scenario is characterized by the goal of reaching a 35% recycling rate, decreasing reliance on landfills, and the introduction of WtE as a disposal method. As landfills are set for closure through 2030 (Figures 16 - 22) and approximately 20 - 25% of MSW is processed by combustion, the average hauling 57 distances to landfills within this scenario are lower compared with those in the other two cases. In terms of distances towards recycling facilities, the implementation of more MRFs would allow for more municipalities to have their recyclable materials processed within shorter distances, instead of sending them to facilities located farther from participating municipalities (Figures 23 and 24). The same would apply to new composting facilities (Figures 25 and 26). Distances to WtE facilities would increase as more distant municipalities transport their waste (Figures 27 and 28). Another factor that influences the distances toward the disposal facilities (either landfill or WtE) is the use of transfer stations, in which case the waste from municipalities would be temporarily deposited and then hauled to the corresponding facilities in trips as frequent as 4-5 times each day (Rosario, 2011). Figure 16. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Landfills “Base Case” 2010 58 Figure 17. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Landfills “Base Case” 2020 Figure 18. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Landfills “Base Case” 2030 59 Figure 19. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities - Transfer Stations “Base Case” 2010, 2020, and 2030 Figure 20. MSW Hauling Distances: Transfer Stations – Landfills “Base Case” 2010 60 Figure 21. MSW Hauling Distances: Transfer Stations – Landfills “Base Case” 2020 Figure 22. MSW Hauling Distances: Transfer Stations – Landfills “Base Case” 2030 61 Figure 23. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – MRF “Base Case” 2010 Figure 24. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – MRF “Base Case” 2020 and 2030 62 Figure 25. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Compost Facilities “Base Case” 2010 Figure 26. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Compost Facilities “Base Case” 2020 and 2030 63 Figure 27. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – WtE “Base Case” 2020 Figure 28. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – WtE “Base Case” 2030 64 4.1.2 Transportation in “Backup Case” The “Backup Case” (WARM Alternative 2) scenario is characterized by reaching the 35% diversion rate much later than in the “Base Case.” Moreover, no WTE projects would be implemented. Since the landfills would receive more MSW than in the previous scenario, their capacities will be reached sooner, and so will their corresponding closure dates (Figures 29 - 35). MSW may also need to be hauled more frequently. However, the distances travelled to recycling and composting facilities would be similar to the “Base Case” as the same facilities have been proposed for this scenario as well (Figures 36 39). Figure 29. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Landfills “Backup Case” 2010 65 Figure 30. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Landfills “Backup Case” 2020 Figure 31. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Landfills “Backup Case” 2030 66 Figure 32. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Transfer Stations “Backup Case” 2010, 2020, and 2030 Figure 33. MSW Hauling Distances: Transfer Stations – Landfills “Backup Case,” 2010 67 Figure 34. MSW Hauling Distances: Transfer Stations – Landfills “Backup Case” 2020 Figure 35. MSW Hauling Distances: Transfer Stations – Landfills “Backup Case” 2030 68 Figure 36. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – MRF “Backup Case” 2010 Figure 37. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – MRF “Backup Case” 2020 and 2030 69 Figure 38. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Compost Facilities “Backup Case” 2010 Figure 39. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Compost Facilities “Backup Case” 2020 and 2030 70 4.1.3 Transportation in “No Action Case” Even though the “No Action” (WARM Business-as-Usual) scenario was not explored in the Dynamic Itinerary, it was still necessary to develop distance models for comparison. It has been suggested that Puerto Rico will run out of landfill space by 2018 if there are no changes in disposal and diversion rates (MP Engineers of PR, 2008). However, the closure dates for landfills need to be revised extensively, as they may be able to withstand more years than estimated in the aforementioned document (Rosario, 2011). Based on this premise, the modeled distances share some similarity to the “Backup Case”, except that landfill space would be depleted more quickly. This scenario also assumes that certain landfills that would have ceased operations in 2010 in the previous cases are still open in said year, thus showing shorter distances from municipalities to landfills (Figures 40 – 47). However, as the years progress, the MSW would be more difficult to transport due to the lack of new transfer stations. As for recycling and composting, the reduced number of facilities would mean longer distance for the transportation of recyclables (Figures 48 and 49). 71 Figure 40. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Landfills “No Action Case” 2010 Figure 41: MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Landfills “No Action Case” 2020 72 Figure 42. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Landfills “No Action Case” 2030 Figure 43. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Transfer Stations “No Action Case” 2010 73 Figure 44. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Transfer Stations “No Action Case” 2020 and 2030 Figure 45. MSW Hauling Distances: Transfer Stations – Landfills “No Action Case” 2010 74 Figure 46. MSW Hauling Distances: Transfer Stations – Landfills “No Action Case” 2020 Figure 47. MSW Hauling Distances: Transfer Stations – Landfills “No Action Case” 2030 75 Figure 48. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – MRF “No Action Case” 2010, 2020, and 2030 Figure 49. MSW Hauling Distances: Municipalities – Compost Facilities “No Action Case” 2010, 2020, and 2030 76 4.1.4 Summary of Transportation Analysis GHG emissions from transportation of waste varies at certain points of the life cycle, mostly due to the distances travelled, transport efficiencies, and type of transport vehicle. Eisted et al (2009) concluded that there are fewer emissions when larger vehicles (including marine transports) are employed to transport waste. This type of vehicle is also used for longer hauling distances, and newer equipment often offers better fuel efficiencies (Eisted et al, 2009). This represents an important opportunity for Puerto Rico, in the sense that the proposed transfer stations will play an important role in the mitigation of GHG emissions. As the northern municipalities transfer their waste to the south or to WtE plants, further emission savings can be achieved. The municipalities of Vieques and Culebra, however, will have to rely on barges to transport their MSW to the main island. Regarding recyclable materials, changes in transport-based emissions are seen in the upstream parts of the life cycle (i.e., materials extraction). By reaching higher diversion rates, there will be less mileage travelled in order to transport virgin materials for manufacturing of new products (USEPA, 2002b). While Puerto Rico has several drop-off points for recycling materials, it is important to continue to encourage the citizens towards this practice. Furthermore, materials exchange programs can contribute to source reduction of waste. 4.2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Analysis Both alternative scenarios were analyzed in WARM and compared to the “No Action Case,” thus estimating GHG emission reductions. The GHG emissions from both 77 the total within a specific scenario and the emissions from each of the waste components selected (per ton basis) are shown in MTCO2E (Figures 50 – 53). On a per ton basis, the output of emissions from the materials included in WARM are a net result of their life cycle. The considerations drawn from the model’s background documentation are summarized below (USEPA, 2002b): Metals: emissions are positive from transportation and sorting/processing of MSW. Virtually no emissions are determined from their disposal in landfills or WtE. Recycling and source reduction of metals result in emission savings. Glass and Plastics: positive emissions are observed in transportation and sorting/processing of MSW. Offsets from source reduction and landfilling are slightly higher than landfilling or combustion emissions (specially for glass) Paper-based MSW (carton and paper): positive emissions result from transportation, processing, and combustion. WARM emission values, however, are slightly positive for the landfilling of corrugated carton and high quality paper (e.g., from offices and textbooks). Net combustion values are negative for all paper-based products due to the potential avoidance of fossil fuel-based utility emissions. Source reduction and recycling result in emission reductions. Composting of these products is not modeled in WARM. 4.2.1 Emissions in “No Action Case” The “No Action” scenario showed the least GHG emission reductions compared to the other two alternative cases for all years. In the “No Action Case,” there is an overreliance on landfills, while keeping the MSW diversion rates capped at 15.3% for all 78 studied years (MP Engineers, 2008). On a per ton basis, fewer reductions in GHG arise from the management of paper, cardboard, mixed organic material, and mixed recyclables represent increases in emissions (Figure 50). As more carbon-based solid waste is sent to landfills, there will be more methane emitted as a result of biodegradation, in addition to the emissions from first stages of the products’ life cycle and transportation (USEPA, 2002b). Furthermore, the landfills do not possess LFG flaring or energy recovery capabilities, in which case WARM assumed increased emissions mainly due to fugitive emissions. Figure 50. Greenhouse Gas Emissions for the "No Action Case" (Business-as-Usual) 4.2.2 Emissions in “Backup Case” The “Backup” scenario shows higher GHG reductions than the “No Action Case” (Figure 51). In this case, the diversion rates expected for 2010, 2020, and 2030 are 19%, 29%, and 35% respectively. Since there would be increased materials recycling, GHG 79 reductions are achieved for the studied years (25% for 2010, 93% for 2020, 134% for 2030) when compared to the “No Action” Case). From an LCA perspective, this means that there would be fewer raw materials extraction and less energy use for the manufacturing of new products. Figure 51. Greenhouse Gas Emissions for the "Backup Case" (Alternative 2) 4.2.3 Emissions in “Base Case” In contrast to the two previous scenarios, the “Base Case” considers the introduction of combustion as a new waste management option (Figure 52). Furthermore, higher diversion rates are reached sooner (23% in 2010 and 35% in 2020 and 2030) (MP Engineers, 2008). For the year 2010, the “Base Case” also follows a similar trend as the previous scenarios in terms of landfilling (i.e., low emissions for glass, metals, and plastics, and higher for carbon-bearing materials), but the emissions are lower for carbon- 80 based waste due to the higher diversion rates. The greater differences in GHG emissions, however, are observed after 2020. Once WtE plants go online as proposed, the reductions in GHG seem to be higher than in the other scenarios (53% in 2010, 215% in 2020, and 216% in 2030 when compared against the “No Action” scenario). Figure 52. Greenhouse Gas Emissions for the "Base Case" (Alternative 1) 4.2.4 Summary of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Analysis Overall, net GHG emissions would increase gradually if no action is taken toward implementing and enforcing better MSW management initiatives (Figure 53). From the results derived from WARM, a balanced plan including combustion and higher diversion rates (i.e., “Base Case”) would mean greater savings in GHG emissions (i.e., increased environmental benefits). Recyling and composting more waste (as presented in the two alternative scenarios), will decrease the amounts to be disposed in landfills, and in turn, 81 avoid GHG emissions from the uncontrolled decomposition of waste. However, the main factor that accentuates the environmental benefits of the “Base Case” is the implementation of WtE. As explained in Chapter II, these technologies do emit GHGs, but these values are well below the regulated emissions. Moreover, WtE has a potential for materials recovery and displacement of fossil fuels for electricity generation (USEPA, 2002b). Further considerations regarding implementation are presented in Section 4.4. Figure 53. Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions for All Studied Cases and Years 4.3 Energy Use Analysis WARM calculated results for energy consumption per waste management scenario in million BTUs. As with the previous analysis, both alternative scenarios were compared against the “No Action” case. 82 WARM draws most of its energy values from the upstream stages of the life cycle (i.e., raw materials acquisition, processing, and manufacturing), but it also includes energy values from transportation of virgin material, products, and waste. These values vary depending on waste management practice and type of material. Considerations included in the model are summarized as follows (USEPA, 2002b): Source reduction: higher energy savings are observed due to the higher potential of virgin materials displacement and diminishing need to transport raw inputs. Recycling: energy values follow a similar trend to those from source reduction. However, certain materials, such as dimensional lumber and fiberboard, require some energy in processing and transportation throughout their life cycle. Combustion: energy savings are observed for all materials except metals and glass, primarily due to the use of fossil fuels for processing. Even though these materials require more energy for their successful combustion, metals and glass can be recovered, resulting in some energy savings in this respect. Landfilling: energy is consumed mostly in transportation of MSW to landfills. Their disposal, however, means that little energy is used in their processing, as wastes are allowed to decompose. Furthermore, if landfills are equipped with landfill gas-to-energy systems, an energy savings will result. 83 4.3.1 Energy Use in “No Action Case” The “No Action” scenario showed the lowest reductions of energy consumed (net and per ton basis) (Figure 54). This is due to the simplistic management scheme employed for all years, which involves increased landfilling and a low diversion rate (MP Engineers, 2008). The organic materials would require additional energy for management practices in landfills and compost facilities, especially for equipment and hauling vehicles (USEPA, 2002b). For other materials, the energy factors used in WARM for recycling outweigh the factors for landfilling. Therefore, with the diversion rate of 15.3%, the reductions in energy use per recycled ton of select MSW may be less. Figure 54. Energy Consumption in the "No Action Case" (Business-as-Usual) 84 4.3.2 Energy Use in “Backup Case” The “Backup” (Alternative 2) scenario shows even greater reductions in energy usage for all materials (Figure 55). As with the GHG emissions analysis, it is observed that higher diversion rates result in more energy savings per ton of managed MSW. However, the energy use reductions show gradual changes, mainly due to the employing recycling and composting as the only diversion strategies. Figure 55. Energy Consumption in the "Backup Case" (Alternative 2) 4.3.3 Energy Use in “Base Case” In contrast to the two previous MSW management scenarios, energy consumption in the “Base Case” changes once combustion is introduced. The combination of both WtE and improved recycling results in greater savings in energy use for some MSW components (Figure 56). It is important to consider that recycling factors in WARM are 85 higher than those for combustion on a per ton basis (USEPA, 2002b). This is especially true for metals, glass, and paper, but the diversion rates are higher than the rates for combustion. On the other hand, the implementation of WtE can potentially serve as a replacement for fossil fuels used for electricity generation. Figure 56. Energy Consumption in the "Base Case" (Alternative 1) 4.3.4 Summary of Energy Consumption Analysis In general, energy benefits can be derived in all scenarios. However, the “Base Case” would offer the greatest overall reductions. (Figure 57). In LCA terms, energy use savings are derived from transportation, materials extraction, manufacturing, and energy production (USEPA, 2002b). As recycling rates increase, there is a reduced need for the extraction, transportation, and usage of virgin materials for the manufacturing of new 86 products. This would also be applied to the displacement of fossil fuels for energy generation achieved by implementing combustion. Figure 57. Net Energy Consumption in All Studied Cases and Years 4.4 Considerations regarding Proposed MSW Scenarios In addition to the reductions both in GHG and energy usage, the previous results also represent the importance of achieving higher diversion rates of MSW from landfills (Table 13). The information shown in the Dynamic Itinerary describes certain initiatives such as collecting recyclables at curbside, the development of more MRFs and compost sites, implementation of community programs, and increased participation rates, in addition to promoting mandatory recycling programs. 87 Table 13. Comparison of MSW Management Scenarios as Calculated in WARM ADS Scenario "Base Case" "Backup Case" "No Action Case" GHG Emissions (MTCO2E) Years 2010 2020 2030 558,795 -1,409,860 -1,461,456 883,854 77,828 -434,633 1,184,519 1,231,236 1,258,209 Energy Use (million BTU) Years 2010 2020 2030 -11,970,162 -26,619,000 -27,210,447 -9,558,595 -16,081,152 -20,211,814 -7,328,120 -7,519,179 -7,642,085 * Negative values represent benefits or savings In terms of increased recovery, capture, and participation rates for recyclable materials, the Wehran Inc. Study recommendations (included in the Dynamic Itinerary) determined that the required rates to achieve the 35% diversion rate are as shown in Table 14 (MP Engineers of PR, 2008). Table 14: ADS Strategies and Goals for Achieving the 35% Diversion Rate (Source: MP Engineers of PR, 2008) Material Capture Rate (%) Participation Rate (%) Recovery Rate (%) Plastics 50 - 60 40 - 60 25 - 50 Paper 70 - 90 50 - 70 20 - 50 Carton 90 80 70 Metals 80 - 90 60 - 80 50 - 70 Yard waste 90 70 60 Glass 60 - 70 50 - 60 30 - 40 ADS has recognized that implementing recycling and source reduction programs would be challenging, particularly if programs such as PAYT are implemented. In such cases, the costs would most likely concern citizens and may give way to littering and clandestine disposal (MP Engineers of PR, 2008). Another alternative for increasing the diversion rate would be implementing programs similar to the WasteWise program sponsored by USEPA. This is a free and voluntary program through which organizations minimize both the costs of MSW management and environmental degradation. Through the promotion of commercial and industrial partnerships, there is the potential to improve 88 materials exchange (USEPA, 2011). Currently, ADS and USEPA sponsor an initiative known as “Puerto Rico Materials Exchange”, in which companies that generate recyclable waste can register and communicate with other companies that may need such materials as inputs (ADS, 2011). WtE has been proposed in the past for Puerto Rico, but it has encountered heavy opposition from the general public as well as certain scientific organizations. A major WtE project that was defeated mainly due to public opposition was the development of a plant in Caguas (Gigante, 2000). The most recent controversy is over the development of a WtE project in the municipality of Arecibo by the company Energy Answers, and there are claims that such a project would be detrimental to the surrounding communities as emissions are thought to compromise human health (Colón, 2011). Even though this method of MSW management has been used for years in the U.S., it may still run into obstacles before it is implemented successfully in Puerto Rico. While it is important to investigate this technology thoroughly, it is equally imperative to determine a solution in response to the increasing loads of MSW that will be generated in the future and the lack of space to dispose of such in the island. The “Base Case” offers more benefits other than GHG emission and energy consumption savings. This scenario represents an opportunity to strengthen industrial ecology and symbiosis practices. The principles of such practices involve the exchange of wastes, by-products, and energy among industrial facilities located in geographic proximity (Ehrenfeld and Gertler, 1997). Moreover, by exchanging resources there is a reduced need for virgin materials and their associated costs (Chertow, 2007). An example 89 of materials recovery and recycling was reported by Eckelman and Chertow (2009) in Hawaii. This state reuses approximately 210,000 tons of inorganic minerals as landfill caps, structural fill, and road base material (Eckelman and Chertow, 2009). Energy recovery could also serve as a materials recovery practice. For instance, metals can be extracted easily, while ash residues can be used as inputs in the cement industry (Pichtel, 2005). Such opportunities have been observed by Hashimoto et al (2010), in which there was a reduction in GHGs from this practice. In Puerto Rico, the WtE project to be implemented by Energy Answers is claimed to include a materials recovery function, as well as energy recovery (Energy Answers, 2008). As such, it can be concluded that it may be possible to develop stronger materials exchange networks in solid waste management. Examples to follow in this regard are the pharmaceutical companies stationed in Puerto Rico, which share wastewater processing (Chertow, 2007). Nevertheless, in order to fully integrate an industrial ecology framework, the participating processes must be located closely. 90 CHAPTER V CONCLUSION GHG emissions and energy consumption analyses for all MSW management scenarios proposed by ADS in Puerto Rico were assessed. It was concluded that the “Base Case” includes the best strategies that would result in increased environmental benefits (i.e., GHG reductions) while decreasing energy usage. The “Backup Case” may offer fewer GHG reductions, but it is another alternative to pursue if the “Base Case” is not fully implemented. 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MSW Hauling Origins and Destinations: “Base Case” 2010 Landfill Destination MRF Adjuntas Ponce Hatillo Aguada Moca Municipalities Transfer Station Aguadilla Aguadilla Cabo Rojo Aguas Buenas Cidra Ponce Aibonito Salinas Añasco Añasco Arecibo Arecibo Compost WTE n/a n/a Hatillo n/a n/a Aibonito n/a Hatillo Mayaguez n/a Guaynabo/Arecibo Arecibo n/a Arroyo Salinas Barceloneta Arecibo Arecibo n/a Aibonito n/a Barranquitas Barranquitas Ponce Bayamón Toa Baja Humacao n/a Bayamon/San Juan n/a Cabo Rojo Hatillo n/a Humacao Caguas/Humacao/San Juan n/a Camuy Arecibo Hatillo n/a Canóvanas Juncos Humacao n/a Carolina Carolina Carolina n/a Cabo Rojo Caguas Cataño Caguas Cataño Ponce Cayey Cayey Ceiba Fajardo Ciales Arecibo Cidra Cidra Coamo n/a Aibonito n/a n/a Hatillo n/a Ponce n/a Juana Diaz n/a Comerío Comerío Ponce Guaynabo n/a Corozal Toa Baja Humacao Guaynabo n/a Fajardo Humacao n/a Culebra Dorado Toa Baja Humacao n/a Fajardo Fajardo Humacao Florida Arecibo Hatillo Guánica Yauco n/a Guayama Guayama n/a Guayanilla Yauco Hatillo/Guayanilla n/a Humacao Guaynabo n/a Humacao Guaynabo n/a Guaynabo Gurabo Guaynabo n/a Arecibo n/a Hatillo Arecibo Hatillo Arecibo n/a Hormigueros Hormigueros Hatillo/Hormigueros Mayaguez n/a Humacao Humacao Humacao n/a Isabela Isabela Hatillo n/a Jayuya Jayuya Hatillo n/a 100 Juana Díaz Juana Diaz n/a Juncos Juncos n/a Lajas Lajas n/a Lares Lares Las Marías Las Marías Arecibo Hatillo n/a Moca Hatillo n/a Las Piedras Humacao Humacao n/a Loíza Fajardo Humacao n/a Luquillo Fajardo Humacao n/a Manatí Arecibo Hatillo n/a Maricao Maricao Mayaguez Maunabo Maunabo Humacao Mayagüez Moca Morovis Morovis Naguabo Mayaguez n/a n/a Mayaguez Hatillo Mayaguez n/a Moca Hatillo n/a Arecibo Hatillo n/a Fajardo Humacao n/a Naranjito Toa Baja Humacao Orocovis Barranquitas Ponce n/a Hatillo n/a Patillas Salinas n/a Peñuelas Yauco n/a Ponce Ponce Guayanilla n/a Quebradillas Moca Hatillo n/a Rincón Quebradillas Moca Hatillo n/a Río Grande Fajardo Humacao n/a Sabana Grande Yauco Salinas Salinas San Germán San Germán Yauco San Juan San Juan Humacao San Lorenzo San Sebastián n/a Aibonito n/a San Juan/Guaynabo Humacao San Sebastián Santa Isabel Moca n/a n/a n/a Hatillo n/a Ponce n/a Toa Alta Toa Baja Humacao n/a Toa Baja Toa Baja Humacao n/a Trujillo Alto Juncos Guaynabo/San Juan n/a Utuado Arecibo Hatillo n/a Vega Alta Arecibo Hatillo n/a Vega Baja Arecibo Hatillo n/a Vieques Vieques n/a Juana Diaz n/a Yabucoa Humacao n/a Yauco Yauco n/a Villalba Villalba 101 II. MSW Hauling Origins and Destinations: “Base Case” 2020 Municipalities Middlepoint (TS) Adjuntas Aguada Aguadilla Aguadilla Aguadilla Aguas Buenas Cidra Aibonito Landfill Destination MRF Compost Ponce Hatillo Ponce WTE NW Hatillo NW Ponce Salinas Aibonito Añasco Mayaguez Hatillo Mayaguez NW Arecibo Arecibo Guaynabo/Arecibo Arecibo NW Arecibo NW Arroyo Salinas Barceloneta Arecibo Barranquitas Barranquitas Ponce Aibonito Bayamón Toa Baja Cabo Rojo Lajas Penuelas New Hatillo Caguas Caguas Humacao Caguas/Humacao/San Juan Camuy Arecibo Canóvanas Bayamon/San Juan Hatillo Juncos Carolina Carolina Cataño Cataño Cayey Cayey Ceiba Ciales Arecibo Cidra Cidra Coamo Toa Baja NE NW Humacao Carolina NE NE Ponce Aibonito Fajardo Ceiba Hatillo NW Ponce/Salinas Juana Diaz Comerío Comerío Guaynabo NE Corozal Toa Baja Guaynabo NE Culebra Culebra Dorado Toa Baja Fajardo Florida Fajardo Toa Baja Fajardo Arecibo Guánica Yauco Guayama Salinas Guayanilla Yauco Guaynabo Guaynabo Gurabo Arecibo Hormigueros Mayaguez Humacao Ceiba Hatillo Arecibo NW NE Guaynabo Hatillo Arecibo NW Hatillo/Hormigueros Mayaguez NW Humacao Humacao Humacao Isabela Isabela Hatillo Jayuya Jayuya Hatillo 102 NE Hatillo/Guayanilla Guaynabo Humacao Hatillo Culebra Juana Díaz Juana Diaz Juncos Juncos Lajas Lajas Ponce Penuelas New Lares Lares Hatillo NW Las Marías Las Marías Hatillo NW Las Piedras Humacao Humacao Loíza Fajardo Humacao Luquillo Fajardo Humacao Manatí Arecibo Maricao Maricao Penuelas New Maunabo Maunabo Humacao Mayagüez Mayagüez Hatillo Moca Aguadilla Hatillo NW Morovis Morovis Hatillo NW Naguabo Hatillo Fajardo Naranjito Toa Baja Orocovis Barranquitas Mayaguez Humacao Mayaguez NW Ceiba NE Ponce Patillas Salinas Peñuelas Penuelas New Ponce NW Ponce Hatillo Ponce Ponce/Guayanilla Ponce Quebradillas Quebradillas Hatillo NW Rincón Aguadilla Hatillo NW Río Grande Fajardo Sabana Grande Yauco Salinas Salinas San Germán Lajas Penuelas New San Juan San Juan Humacao San Lorenzo San Sebastián Humacao Aibonito San Juan/Guaynabo Humacao San Sebastián Santa Isabel Hatillo NW Ponce Toa Alta Toa Baja Toa Baja Toa Baja NE Toa Baja Toa Baja Toa Baja Toa Baja NE Arecibo/Ponce NW Trujillo Alto Juncos Guaynabo /San Juan Utuado Arecibo Hatillo Vega Alta Arecibo Hatillo NE Vega Baja Arecibo Hatillo NE Vieques Villalba Vieques Villalba Juana Diaz Yabucoa Humacao Yauco Yauco 103 Vieques III. MSW Hauling Origins and Destinations: “Base Case” 2030 Municipalities Transfer Stations Adjuntas Aguada Aguadilla Aguadilla Aguadilla Aguas Buenas Cidra Aibonito Landfill Destination MRF Compost Ponce Hatillo Ponce WTE NW Hatillo NW Ponce Salinas Aibonito Añasco Mayaguez Hatillo Mayaguez NW Arecibo Arecibo Guaynabo/Arecibo Arecibo NW Arecibo NW Arroyo Salinas Barceloneta Arecibo Barranquitas Barranquitas Ponce Aibonito Bayamón Toa Baja Cabo Rojo Lajas Caguas Caguas Caguas/Humacao/San Juan NE Camuy Arecibo Hatillo NW Canóvanas Bayamon/San Juan Penuelas New Juncos Carolina Carolina Cataño Cataño Cayey Cayey Ceiba Ciales Arecibo Cidra Cidra Coamo Toa Baja NE Hatillo Humacao Carolina NE NE Ponce Aibonito Fajardo Ceiba Hatillo NW Ponce Yauco Comerío Comerío Guaynabo NE Corozal Toa Baja Guaynabo NE Culebra Culebra Dorado Toa Baja Fajardo Florida Fajardo Toa Baja Fajardo Arecibo Guánica Yauco Guayama Salinas Guayanilla Yauco Guaynabo Guayanabo Gurabo Arecibo Hormigueros Mayaguez Humacao Ceiba Hatillo Arecibo NW NE Guaynabo Hatillo Arecibo NW Hatillo/Hormigueros Mayaguez NW Humacao Humacao Humacao Isabela Isabela Hatillo Jayuya Penuelas New Hatillo 104 NE Hatillo/Guayanilla Guaynabo Humacao Hatillo Culebra Juana Díaz Juana Diaz Juncos Lajas Yauco Ponce Juncos Lajas Penuelas New Lares Lares Hatillo NW Las Marías Las Marías Hatillo NW Las Piedras Humacao Humacao Loíza Fajardo Humacao Luquillo Fajardo Humacao Manatí Arecibo Maricao Maricao Maunabo Maunabo Mayagüez Mayagüez Hatillo Moca Aguadilla Hatillo NW Morovis Morovis Hatillo NW Naguabo Hatillo Toa Baja Orocovis Barranquitas NW Mayaguez NW Humacao Ceiba NE Ponce Patillas Salinas Peñuelas Penuelas New Ponce Mayaguez Humacao Fajardo Naranjito NW Ponce Hatillo Ponce Ponce/Guayanilla Ponce Quebradillas Quebradillas Hatillo NW Rincón Aguadilla Hatillo NW Río Grande Fajardo Sabana Grande Yauco Salinas Salinas San Germán Lajas Penuelas New San Juan San Juan Humacao San Lorenzo San Sebastián Humacao Aibonito San Juan/Guaynabo Humacao San Sebastián Santa Isabel Hatillo NW Ponce Toa Alta Toa Baja Toa Baja Toa Baja NE Toa Baja Toa Baja Toa Baja Toa Baja NE Arecibo/Ponce NW Trujillo Alto Juncos Guaynabo /San Juan Utuado Arecibo Hatillo Vega Alta Arecibo Hatillo NW Hatillo NW Vega Baja Arecibo Vieques Vieques Fajardo Villalba Villalba Yauco Yabucoa Humacao Yauco Yauco 105 Vieques IV. MSW Hauling Origins and Destinations: “Backup Case” 2010 Landfill Destination MRF Adjuntas Ponce Hatillo Aguada Moca Municipalities Transfer Stations Aguadilla Aguadilla Cabo Rojo Aguas Buenas Cidra Ponce Compost WTE n/a n/a Hatillo n/a n/a Aibonito Ponce Añasco Añasco Arecibo Arecibo Arroyo Ponce Barceloneta Arecibo Arecibo n/a Ponce Aibonito n/a Barranquitas Barranquitas Bayamón Toa Baja Aibonito n/a Hatillo Mayaguez n/a Guaynabo/Arecibo Arecibo n/a n/a Penuelas Bayamon n/a Cabo Rojo Hatillo n/a Humacao Caguas/Humacao/San Juan n/a Camuy Arecibo Hatillo n/a Canóvanas Juncos Humacao n/a Carolina Carolina Carolina n/a Cabo Rojo Caguas Cataño Caguas Cataño Penuelas Cayey Cayey Ceiba Fajardo Ciales Arecibo Cidra Cidra Coamo n/a Aibonito n/a n/a Hatillo n/a Ponce n/a Juana Diaz n/a Comerío Comerio Ponce Guaynabo n/a Corozal Toa Baja Arecibo Guaynabo n/a Fajardo Humacao n/a Culebra Dorado Toa Baja Penuelas n/a Fajardo Fajardo Humacao Florida Arecibo Hatillo Guánica Yauco n/a Guayama Guayama n/a Guayanilla Yauco Hatillo/Guayanilla n/a Humacao Guaynabo n/a Gurabo Humacao Guaynabo n/a Hatillo Arecibo Hatillo Arecibo n/a Hormigueros Hormigueros Hatillo/Hormigueros Mayaguez n/a Humacao Humacao Humacao n/a Isabela Isabela Hatillo n/a Jayuya Jayuya Hatillo n/a Guaynabo Guayanabo 106 n/a Arecibo n/a Juana Díaz Juana Diaz n/a Juncos Juncos n/a Lajas Lajas n/a Lares Lares Arecibo Hatillo n/a Las Marías Las Marias Moca Hatillo n/a Las Piedras Humacao Humacao n/a Loíza Fajardo Humacao n/a Luquillo Fajardo Humacao n/a Manatí Arecibo Hatillo n/a Maricao Maricao Mayaguez Maunabo Maunabo Humacao Mayaguez n/a n/a Mayagüez Mayaguez Hatillo Moca Moca Hatillo n/a Penuelas Hatillo n/a Fajardo Humacao n/a Morovis Morovis Naguabo Naranjito Toa Baja Arecibo Orocovis Barranquitas Ponce Mayaguez n/a n/a Hatillo n/a Patillas Ponce n/a Peñuelas Yauco n/a Ponce Ponce Guayanilla n/a Moca Hatillo n/a Rincón Moca Hatillo n/a Río Grande Fajardo Humacao n/a Sabana Grande Yauco Salinas Ponce Quebradillas Quebradillas San Germán San Germán Yauco San Juan San Juan Humacao San Lorenzo San Sebastián n/a Aibonito n/a Guaynabo/San Juan Humacao San Sebastián Santa Isabel Moca n/a n/a n/a Hatillo n/a Ponce n/a Toa Alta Toa Baja Arecibo n/a Toa Baja Toa Baja Penuelas n/a Trujillo Alto Juncos Guaynabo/San Juan n/a Utuado Arecibo Hatillo n/a Vega Alta Arecibo Hatillo n/a Vega Baja Arecibo Hatillo n/a Vieques Vieques n/a Juana Diaz n/a Yabucoa Humacao n/a Yauco Yauco n/a Villalba Villalba 107 V. MSW Hauling Origins and Destinations: “Backup Case” 2020 Municipalities Transfer Stations Adjuntas Landfill Destination MRF Compost WTE Ponce Hatillo Ponce n/a Aguada Mayaguez Penuelas New Aguadilla Aguadilla Cabo Rojo Aguas Buenas Cidra Ponce Aibonito n/a Hatillo n/a n/a Ponce Aibonito n/a Añasco Mayaguez Penuelas New Hatillo Mayaguez n/a Arecibo Arecibo Penuelas New Guaynabo/Arecibo Arecibo n/a Arroyo Ponce n/a Barceloneta Arecibo Penuelas New Arecibo n/a Barranquitas Barranquitas Ponce Aibonito n/a Bayamón Toa Baja Penuelas New Bayamon/San Juan Toa Baja n/a Cabo Rojo Hatillo n/a Cabo Rojo Caguas Caguas Humacao Caguas/Humacao/San Juan n/a Camuy Arecibo Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Canóvanas Juncos Humacao n/a Carolina Fajardo Carolina n/a Cataño Cataño Cayey Cayey Ceiba Penuelas New n/a Ponce Aibonito n/a Fajardo Ceiba n/a Ciales Arecibo Penuelas New Cidra Cidra Ponce n/a Juana Diaz n/a Coamo Hatillo n/a Comerío Comerio Ponce Guaynabo n/a Corozal Toa Baja Penuelas New Guaynabo n/a Culebra Culebra Fajardo Humacao n/a Dorado Toa Baja Penuelas New Fajardo Arecibo Penuelas New Fajardo Florida Toa Baja n/a Humacao Ceiba n/a Hatillo Arecibo n/a Guánica Yauco n/a Guayama Ponce n/a Guayanilla Yauco Hatillo/Guayanilla n/a Humacao Guaynabo n/a Humacao Guaynabo n/a Guaynabo Guaynabo Gurabo Hatillo Arecibo Penuelas New Hatillo Arecibo n/a Hormigueros Mayaguez Mayaguez n/a Penuelas New Hatillo/Hormigueros Humacao Humacao Humacao n/a Isabela Isabela Hatillo n/a Jayuya Jayuya Hatillo n/a 108 Juana Díaz Juana Diaz Ponce n/a Juncos Juncos n/a Lajas Penuelas New n/a Lares Lares Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Las Marías Las Marias Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Las Piedras Humacao Humacao n/a Loíza Fajardo Humacao n/a Luquillo Fajardo Humacao n/a Hatillo n/a Manatí Arecibo Penuelas New Maricao Maricao Penuelas New Maunabo Maunabo Humacao Mayagüez Mayagüez Penuelas New Hatillo Moca Aguadilla Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Morovis Morovis Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Fajardo Humacao Naguabo Naranjito Toa Baja Penuelas New Orocovis Barranquitas Ponce Patillas Ponce Peñuelas Penuelas New Ponce Mayaguez n/a n/a Mayaguez Ceiba n/a n/a n/a Hatillo n/a n/a Ponce n/a Ponce n/a Ponce Ponce/Guayanilla Quebradillas Quebradillas Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Rincón Aguadilla Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Río Grande Fajardo Humacao n/a Sabana Grande Yauco Salinas Ponce San Germán San Germán Yauco San Juan San Juan Humacao San Sebastián Penuelas New San Lorenzo San Sebastián n/a Aibonito n/a San Juan/Guaynabo n/a Humacao Santa Isabel n/a n/a Hatillo n/a Ponce n/a Toa Alta Toa Baja Penuelas New Toa Baja Toa Baja n/a Toa Baja Toa Baja Penuelas New Toa Baja Toa Baja n/a Juncos Guaynabo /San Juan Trujillo Alto n/a Utuado Arecibo Penuelas New Hatillo Vega Alta Arecibo Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Vega Baja Arecibo Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Vieques Arecibo/Ponce n/a Vieques n/a Juana Diaz n/a Yabucoa Humacao n/a Yauco Yauco n/a Villalba Villalba 109 VI. MSW Hauling Origins and Destinations: “Backup Case” 2030 Municipalities Transfer Stations Adjuntas Landfill Destination MRF Compost WTE Ponce Hatillo Ponce n/a Aguada Mayaguez Penuelas New Aguadilla Aguadilla Cabo Rojo Aguas Buenas Cidra Ponce Aibonito n/a Hatillo n/a n/a Ponce Aibonito n/a Añasco Mayaguez Penuelas New Hatillo Mayaguez n/a Arecibo Arecibo Penuelas New Guaynabo/Arecibo Arecibo n/a Arroyo Ponce n/a Barceloneta Arecibo Penuelas New Arecibo n/a Barranquitas Barranquitas Ponce Aibonito n/a Bayamón Toa Baja Penuelas New Bayamon/San Juan Toa Baja n/a Cabo Rojo Hatillo n/a Cabo Rojo Caguas Caguas Humacao Caguas/Humacao/San Juan n/a Camuy Arecibo Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Canóvanas Juncos Humacao n/a Carolina Fajardo Carolina n/a Cataño Cataño Cayey Cayey Ceiba Penuelas New n/a Ponce Aibonito n/a Fajardo Ceiba n/a Ciales Arecibo Penuelas New Cidra Cidra Ponce n/a Coamo Juana Diaz Yauco n/a Comerío Comerio Ponce Guaynabo n/a Corozal Toa Baja Penuelas New Guaynabo n/a Culebra Culebra Fajardo Humacao n/a Dorado Toa Baja Penuelas New Fajardo Arecibo Penuelas New Fajardo Florida Hatillo n/a Toa Baja n/a Humacao Ceiba n/a Hatillo Arecibo n/a Guánica Yauco n/a Guayama Ponce n/a Guayanilla Yauco Hatillo/Guayanilla n/a Humacao Guaynabo n/a Humacao Guaynabo n/a Guaynabo Guaynabo Gurabo Hatillo Arecibo Penuelas New Hatillo Arecibo n/a Hormigueros Mayaguez Mayaguez n/a Penuelas New Hatillo/Hormigueros Humacao Humacao Humacao n/a Isabela Isabela Hatillo n/a Jayuya Penuelas New Hatillo n/a 110 Juana Díaz Juana Diaz Yauco Ponce n/a Juncos Juncos n/a Lajas Penuelas New n/a Lares Lares Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Las Marías Las Marias Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Las Piedras Humacao Humacao n/a Loíza Fajardo Humacao n/a Luquillo Fajardo Humacao n/a Hatillo n/a Manatí Arecibo Penuelas New Maricao Maricao Penuelas New Maunabo Maunabo Humacao Mayagüez Mayagüez Penuelas New Hatillo Moca Aguadilla Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Morovis Morovis Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Fajardo Humacao Naguabo Naranjito Toa Baja Penuelas New Orocovis Barranquitas Ponce Patillas Ponce Peñuelas Penuelas New Ponce Mayaguez n/a n/a Mayaguez Ceiba n/a n/a n/a Hatillo n/a n/a Ponce n/a Ponce n/a Ponce Ponce/Guayanilla Quebradillas Quebradillas Yauco Hatillo n/a Rincón Aguadilla Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Río Grande Fajardo Humacao n/a Sabana Grande Yauco Salinas Ponce San Germán San German Yauco San Juan San Juan Humacao San Sebastian Penuelas New San Lorenzo San Sebastián n/a Aibonito n/a San Juan/Guaynabo n/a Humacao Santa Isabel n/a n/a Hatillo n/a Ponce n/a Toa Alta Toa Baja Penuelas New Toa Baja Toa Baja n/a Toa Baja Toa Baja Penuelas New Toa Baja Toa Baja n/a Juncos Guaynabo /San Juan Trujillo Alto n/a Utuado Arecibo Penuelas New Hatillo Vega Alta Arecibo Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Vega Baja Arecibo Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Vieques Vieques Fajardo n/a Villalba Villalba Yauco n/a Yabucoa Humacao n/a Yauco Yauco n/a 111 Arecibo/Ponce n/a VII. MSW Hauling Origins and Destinations: “No Action Case” 2010 Landfill Destination MRF Adjuntas Ponce Hatillo Aguada Moca Municipalities Transfer Stations Aguadilla Aguas Buenas Cabo Rojo Cidra Compost WTE n/a n/a Hatillo n/a Ponce n/a Aibonito Salinas Aibonito n/a Añasco Añasco Hatillo Mayaguez n/a Arecibo Arecibo Guaynabo/Arecibo Arecibo n/a Arroyo Arroyo Barceloneta Arecibo Arecibo n/a Barranquitas Barranquitas Aibonito n/a n/a Bayamón Toa Baja Bayamon n/a Cabo Rojo Cabo Rojo Hatillo n/a Humacao Caguas/Humacao/San Juan n/a Camuy Arecibo Hatillo n/a Canóvanas Juncos Humacao n/a Carolina Carolina Carolina n/a Caguas Cataño Caguas Cataño Ponce Cayey Cayey Ceiba Fajardo Ciales Vega Baja Cidra Cidra Coamo Comerío Comerio n/a Aibonito n/a n/a Hatillo n/a Salinas n/a Juana Diaz n/a Toa Alta Guaynabo n/a Corozal Toa Alta Guaynabo n/a Culebra Culebra Humacao n/a Dorado Toa Baja Fajardo Fajardo Humacao Florida Florida Hatillo Guánica Yauco n/a Guayama Guayama n/a Guayanilla Yauco Hatillo/Guayanilla n/a Guaynabo Humacao Guaynabo n/a Gurabo Humacao Guaynabo n/a Hatillo Arecibo Hatillo Arecibo n/a Hormigueros Hormigueros Hatillo/Hormigueros Mayaguez n/a Humacao Humacao Humacao n/a Isabela Isabela Hatillo n/a Jayuya Jayuya Hatillo n/a 112 n/a n/a Arecibo n/a Juana Díaz Juana Diaz n/a Juncos Juncos n/a Lajas Lajas n/a Lares Lares Arecibo Hatillo n/a Las Marías Las Marias Moca Hatillo n/a Las Piedras Humacao Humacao n/a Loíza Fajardo Humacao n/a Luquillo Fajardo Humacao n/a Manatí Arecibo Hatillo n/a Maricao Maricao Mayaguez Maunabo Maunabo Arroyo Mayaguez n/a n/a Mayagüez Mayaguez Hatillo Moca Moca Hatillo n/a Arecibo Hatillo n/a Naguabo Fajardo Humacao n/a Naranjito Toa Alta Orocovis Barranquitas Patillas Arroyo n/a Peñuelas Yauco n/a Morovis Morovis Ponce Mayaguez n/a n/a Hatillo n/a Ponce Guayanilla n/a Moca Hatillo n/a Rincón Moca Hatillo n/a Río Grande Fajardo Humacao n/a Sabana Grande Yauco Salinas Salinas Quebradillas Quebradillas San Germán San German Yauco San Juan San Juan Humacao San Lorenzo San Sebastián n/a Aibonito n/a Guaynabo/San Juan Humacao San Sebastian Moca n/a n/a n/a Hatillo n/a Santa Isabel Santa Isabel n/a Toa Alta Toa Alta n/a Toa Baja Toa Baja n/a Trujillo Alto Juncos Guaynabo/San Juan n/a Utuado Arecibo Hatillo n/a Vega Alta Vega Baja Hatillo n/a Vega Baja Vega Baja Hatillo n/a Vieques Vieques n/a Juana Diaz n/a Yabucoa Yabucoa n/a Yauco Yauco n/a Villalba Villalba 113 VIII. MSW Hauling Origins and Destinations: “No Action Case” 2020 Municipalities Transfer Stations Adjuntas Aguada San Sebastian Aguadilla Landfill Destination MRF Ponce Hatillo Compost n/a Penuelas New Cabo Rojo WTE n/a Hatillo n/a Aguas Buenas Cidra Ponce Aibonito Cidra Ponce Añasco Las Marias Penuelas New Arecibo Penuelas New Arroyo Ponce Barceloneta Florida Arecibo n/a Ponce Aibonito n/a Barranquitas Comerio n/a Aibonito n/a Hatillo Mayaguez n/a Guaynabo/Arecibo Arecibo n/a n/a Bayamón Penuelas New Bayamon n/a Cabo Rojo Cabo Rojo Hatillo n/a Humacao Caguas/Humacao/San Juan n/a Camuy Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Canóvanas Juncos Humacao n/a Carolina Fajardo Carolina n/a Caguas Caguas Cataño Cataño Cayey Cidra Ceiba Ponce n/a Ponce Aibonito Fajardo n/a n/a Ciales Morovis Penuelas New Cidra Cidra Ponce n/a Juana Diaz n/a Coamo Hatillo n/a Comerío Comerio Ponce Guaynabo n/a Corozal Morovis Penuelas New Guaynabo n/a Fajardo Humacao n/a Culebra Dorado Dorado Penuelas New n/a Fajardo Fajardo Humacao Florida Florida Hatillo n/a Guánica Yauco n/a Guayama Ponce n/a Guayanilla Yauco Hatillo/Guayanilla n/a Arecibo n/a Guaynabo San Juan Humacao Guaynabo n/a Gurabo Caguas Humacao Guaynabo n/a Hatillo Lares Penuelas New Hatillo Arecibo n/a Hormigueros Penuelas New Hatillo/Hormigueros Mayaguez n/a Humacao Humacao Humacao n/a Isabela Isabela Hatillo n/a Jayuya Jayuya Hatillo n/a 114 Juana Díaz Juana Diaz n/a Juncos Juncos n/a Lajas Penuelas New n/a Lares Lares Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Las Marías Las Marias Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Las Piedras Caguas Humacao Humacao n/a Loíza Fajardo Humacao n/a Luquillo Fajardo Humacao n/a Hatillo n/a Manatí Morovis Penuelas New Maricao Maricao Penuelas New Maunabo Maunabo Humacao Mayagüez Las Marias Penuelas New Hatillo Moca San Sebastian Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Morovis Morovis Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Fajardo Humacao n/a Naguabo Naranjito Morovis Orocovis Patillas Peñuelas Ponce n/a n/a Mayaguez Penuelas New Ponce Maunabo Mayaguez n/a n/a Hatillo n/a Ponce n/a Penuelas New n/a Ponce Guayanilla n/a Quebradillas Quebradillas Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Rincón San Sebastian Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Fajardo Humacao n/a Río Grande Sabana Grande San German Salinas Yauco n/a Ponce San Germán San German Yauco San Juan San Juan Humacao San Lorenzo Caguas Humacao San Sebastián San Sebastian Penuelas New Santa Isabel Aibonito n/a n/a Guaynabo/San Juan n/a n/a Hatillo n/a Ponce n/a Toa Alta Morovis Penuelas New n/a Toa Baja Morovis Penuelas New n/a Trujillo Alto Juncos Guaynabo/San Juan n/a Utuado Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Vega Alta Morovis Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Vega Baja Morovis Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Vieques Vieques n/a Juana Diaz n/a Yabucoa Humacao n/a Yauco Yauco n/a Villalba Villalba 115 IX. MSW Hauling Origins and Destinations: “No Action Case” 2030 Municipalities Transfer Stations Adjuntas Aguada San Sebastian Aguadilla Landfill Destination MRF Ponce Hatillo Compost n/a Penuelas New Cabo Rojo WTE n/a Hatillo n/a Aguas Buenas Cidra Ponce Aibonito Cidra Ponce Añasco Las Marias Penuelas New Arecibo Penuelas New Arroyo Ponce Barceloneta Florida Arecibo n/a Ponce Aibonito n/a Barranquitas Comerio n/a Aibonito n/a Hatillo Mayaguez n/a Guaynabo/Arecibo Arecibo n/a n/a Bayamón Penuelas New Bayamon n/a Cabo Rojo Cabo Rojo Hatillo n/a Humacao Caguas/Humacao/San Juan n/a Camuy Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Canóvanas Juncos Humacao n/a Carolina Fajardo Carolina n/a Caguas Caguas Cataño Cataño Cayey Cidra Ceiba Penuelas New n/a Ponce Aibonito Fajardo n/a n/a Ciales Morovis Penuelas New Cidra Cidra Ponce n/a Yauco n/a Coamo Hatillo n/a Comerío Comerio Ponce Guaynabo n/a Corozal Morovis Penuelas New Guaynabo n/a Fajardo Humacao n/a Culebra Dorado Dorado Penuelas New n/a Fajardo Fajardo Humacao Florida Florida Hatillo n/a Guánica Yauco n/a Guayama Ponce n/a Guayanilla Yauco Hatillo/Guayanilla n/a Arecibo n/a Guaynabo San Juan Humacao Guaynabo n/a Gurabo Caguas Humacao Guaynabo n/a Hatillo Lares Penuelas New Hatillo Arecibo n/a Hormigueros Penuelas New Hatillo/Hormigueros Mayaguez n/a Humacao Humacao Humacao n/a Isabela Isabela Hatillo n/a Jayuya Penuelas New Hatillo n/a 116 Juana Díaz Yauco n/a Juncos Juncos n/a Lajas Penuelas New n/a Lares Lares Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Las Marías Las Marias Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Las Piedras Caguas Humacao Humacao n/a Loíza Fajardo Humacao n/a Luquillo Fajardo Humacao n/a Hatillo n/a Manatí Morovis Penuelas New Maricao Maricao Penuelas New Maunabo Maunabo Humacao Mayagüez Las Marias Penuelas New Hatillo Moca San Sebastian Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Morovis Morovis Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Fajardo Humacao n/a Naguabo Naranjito Morovis Orocovis Patillas Peñuelas Ponce n/a n/a Mayaguez Penuelas New Ponce Maunabo Mayaguez n/a n/a Hatillo n/a Ponce n/a Penuelas New n/a Ponce Guayanilla n/a Quebradillas Quebradillas Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Rincón San Sebastian Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Fajardo Humacao n/a Río Grande Sabana Grande San German Salinas Yauco n/a Ponce San Germán San German Yauco San Juan San Juan Humacao San Lorenzo Caguas Humacao San Sebastián San Sebastian Penuelas New Santa Isabel Aibonito n/a n/a Guaynabo/San Juan n/a n/a Hatillo n/a Ponce n/a Toa Alta Morovis Penuelas New n/a Toa Baja Morovis Penuelas New n/a Trujillo Alto Juncos Guaynabo/San Juan n/a Utuado Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Vega Alta Morovis Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Vega Baja Morovis Penuelas New Hatillo n/a Vieques Fajardo n/a Yauco n/a Yabucoa Humacao n/a Yauco Yauco n/a Villalba Villalba 117 X. WARM Greenhouse Gas Emission Factors (MTCO2E per short ton) Material Source Recycling Reduction Landfilling, Landfilling, Landfilling, Landfilling, National No Energy Combustion Composting Flaring Average Recovery Recovery 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 N/A 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 -1.54 N/A 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 N/A 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 N/A 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 1.31 N/A 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 1.31 N/A 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 1.28 N/A 0.08 1.49 -0.54 -0.8 -0.51 N/A Aluminum Cans Steel Cans Copper Wire Glass HDPE LDPE PET Corrugated Containers Magazines / Third-class mail Newspaper Office Paper Phonebooks Textbooks Dimensional Lumber -8.26 -3.19 -7.38 -0.53 -1.77 -2.25 -2.07 -5.6 -13.61 -1.8 -4.97 -0.28 -1.38 -1.67 -1.52 -3.1 -8.65 -3.07 -0.42 0.14 -0.66 -0.76 -0.36 N/A -4.89 -8 -6.29 -9.13 -2.02 -2.8 -2.85 -2.65 -3.11 -2.46 -0.97 1.38 -0.97 1.38 -0.66 -0.48 3.71 -0.48 3.71 0.07 -1.18 0.36 -1.18 0.36 -0.98 -1.27 -0.07 -1.27 -0.07 -1.12 -0.58 -0.49 -0.58 -0.49 -0.61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Medium-density Fiberboard -2.23 -2.47 -0.66 0.07 -0.98 -1.12 -0.61 N/A Food Scraps Yard Trimmings Grass Leaves Branches Mixed Paper (general) Mixed Paper (primarily residential) Mixed Paper (primarily from offices) Mixed Metals Mixed Plastics Mixed Recyclables Mixed Organics Mixed MSW Carpet Personal Computers Clay Bricks Concrete Fly Ash Tires Asphalt Concrete Asphalt Shingles Drywall Fiberglass Insulation Vinyl Flooring Wood Flooring N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -3.51 0.75 -0.11 0.28 -0.54 -0.66 0.05 1.43 0.2 0.51 -0.3 0.07 1.35 0.46 -0.24 0.17 -0.65 -0.98 -0.49 0.33 -0.3 0.13 -0.69 -1.12 -0.72 -0.13 -0.16 -0.16 -0.16 -0.16 -0.51 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A -3.51 -0.03 1.21 -0.53 -0.75 -0.51 N/A N/A -3.6 0.17 1.43 -0.23 -0.44 -0.46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -4.02 -55.78 -0.29 N/A N/A -4.34 -0.11 -0.2 -0.22 -0.39 -0.63 -4.08 -5.4 -1.5 -2.87 N/A N/A -7.22 -2.26 N/A -0.01 -0.87 -0.39 -0.08 -0.09 0.03 N/A N/A N/A 0.04 0.04 -0.05 0.31 1.15 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.13 0.04 0.04 0.07 0.04 0.04 0.96 0.77 3.1 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.13 0.04 0.04 0.07 0.04 0.04 -0.47 0.11 0.31 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.13 0.04 0.04 0.07 0.04 0.04 -0.66 0.02 -0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.13 0.04 0.04 0.07 -1.05 1.29 -0.44 -0.15 -0.06 0.66 -0.17 N/A N/A N/A 0.51 N/A -0.34 N/A N/A -0.33 -0.8 N/A N/A N/A -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 118 XI. WARM Greenhouse Gas Emission Factors (MTCE per short ton) Material Source Recycling Reduction Landfilling, Landfilling, Landfilling, Landfilling, National No Energy Combustion Composting Flaring Average Recovery Recovery 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 N/A 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 -0.42 N/A 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 N/A 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 N/A 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.36 N/A 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.36 N/A 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.35 N/A 0.02 0.41 -0.15 -0.22 -0.14 N/A Aluminum Cans Steel Cans Copper Wire Glass HDPE LDPE PET Corrugated Containers Magazines / Third-class mail Newspaper Office Paper Phonebooks Textbooks Dimensional Lumber -2.25 -0.87 -2.01 -0.14 -0.48 -0.61 -0.57 -1.53 -3.71 -0.49 -1.36 -0.08 -0.38 -0.46 -0.41 -0.85 -2.36 -0.84 -0.11 0.04 -0.18 -0.21 -0.1 N/A -1.33 -2.18 -1.72 -2.49 -0.55 -0.76 -0.78 -0.72 -0.85 -0.67 -0.26 0.38 -0.26 0.38 -0.18 -0.13 1.01 -0.13 1.01 0.02 -0.32 0.1 -0.32 0.1 -0.27 -0.35 -0.02 -0.35 -0.02 -0.3 -0.16 -0.13 -0.16 -0.13 -0.17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Medium-density Fiberboard -0.61 -0.67 -0.18 0.02 -0.27 -0.3 -0.17 N/A Food Scraps Yard Trimmings Grass Leaves Branches Mixed Paper (general) Mixed Paper (primarily residential) Mixed Paper (primarily from offices) Mixed Metals Mixed Plastics Mixed Recyclables Mixed Organics Mixed MSW Carpet Personal Computers Clay Bricks Concrete Fly Ash Tires Asphalt Concrete Asphalt Shingles Drywall Fiberglass Insulation Vinyl Flooring Wood Flooring N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.96 0.2 -0.03 0.08 -0.15 -0.18 0.01 0.39 0.05 0.14 -0.08 0.02 0.37 0.12 -0.07 0.05 -0.18 -0.27 -0.13 0.09 -0.08 0.04 -0.19 -0.3 -0.2 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.14 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 N/A N/A -0.96 -0.01 0.33 -0.14 -0.21 -0.14 N/A N/A -0.98 0.05 0.39 -0.06 -0.12 -0.13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -1.1 -15.21 -0.08 N/A N/A -1.18 -0.03 -0.06 -0.06 -0.11 -0.17 -1.11 -1.47 -0.41 -0.78 N/A N/A -1.97 -0.62 N/A 0 -0.24 -0.11 -0.02 -0.03 0.01 N/A N/A N/A 0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.09 0.31 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.26 0.21 0.84 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 -0.13 0.03 0.08 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 -0.18 0 -0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.02 -0.29 0.35 -0.12 -0.04 -0.02 0.18 -0.05 N/A N/A N/A 0.14 N/A -0.09 N/A N/A -0.09 -0.22 N/A N/A N/A -0.05 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 119 XII. WARM Energy Use Factors (million BTU per short ton) Material Source Recycling Reduction Landfilling, Landfilling, Landfilling, Landfilling, National No Energy Combustion Composting Flaring Average Recovery Recovery 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.64 N/A 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 -17.1 N/A 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.57 N/A 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 N/A 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 -18.65 N/A 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 -18.65 N/A 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 -9.54 N/A 0.15 0.53 0.53 -0.7 -6.84 N/A Aluminum Cans Steel Cans Copper Wire Glass HDPE LDPE PET Corrugated Containers Magazines / Third-class mail Newspaper Office Paper Phonebooks Textbooks Dimensional Lumber -126.22 -30.82 -122.34 -6.93 -63.76 -74 -70.75 -22.01 -206.42 -19.97 -82.59 -2.13 -50.9 -56.01 -52.83 -15.05 -33.22 -0.69 0.38 0.53 0.53 0.04 -5.03 N/A -36.45 -36.59 -40.19 -35.59 -3.53 -16.49 -10.08 -11.93 -1.03 0.59 0.4 -0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.33 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.1 -1.5 0.1 -1.5 -0.11 -7.76 -6.6 -7.76 -6.6 -8.12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Medium-density Fiberboard -11.61 0.86 0.33 0.53 0.53 -0.11 -8.12 N/A Food Scraps Yard Trimmings Grass Leaves Branches Mixed Paper (general) Mixed Paper (primarily residential) Mixed Paper (primarily from offices) Mixed Metals Mixed Plastics Mixed Recyclables Mixed Organics Mixed MSW Carpet Personal Computers Clay Bricks Concrete Fly Ash Tires Asphalt Concrete Asphalt Shingles Drywall Fiberglass Insulation Vinyl Flooring Wood Flooring N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -20.36 0.35 0.44 0.46 0.46 0.33 0.18 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 -0.06 0.26 0.24 0.32 -0.11 -0.59 -2.11 -2.54 -2.54 -2.54 -2.54 7.46 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 N/A N/A -20.36 0.2 0.53 0.53 -0.53 7.43 N/A N/A -20.85 0.19 0.53 0.53 -0.48 6.88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -91.06 -956.74 -5.13 N/A N/A -71.63 -1.68 -3.18 -3.59 -4.77 -10.72 -14.48 -76.89 -52.76 -16.57 N/A N/A -96.29 -30.48 N/A -0.11 -4.77 -56.68 -1.22 -2.46 -2.65 N/A N/A N/A 0.53 0.53 0.25 0.4 0.01 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 -0.37 0.1 -1.16 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 -11.68 -14.68 -6.9 -2.33 -4.77 -13.29 -6.29 N/A N/A N/A -28.49 N/A -8.5 N/A N/A -7.69 -10.71 N/A N/A N/A 0.58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A * The energy factors presented in this table reflect national average landfill gas recovery practices and transportation distances. 120