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IPCC 07, figure SPM.6
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IPCC 07, figure SPM.6
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6
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380 ppm = 380 parts-per-million = 0.038% by volume
Keeling, a researcher at Scripps Institute for Oceanography, started measuring atmospheric CO2 from
Mauna Loa in Hawaii in 1958. Besides the annual photosynthetic cycle, a profound trend is seen.
(Currently at about 390 ppm)
Lecture 17
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Factors affecting Earth’s climate:
• Eccentricity of Earth’s orbit around the Sun (varies
over period of ~ 100,000 years)
• Precession (Period of ~ 26,000 years)
• Inclination of Earth’s axis versus orbital plane
Milankovitch Hypothesis: Changes in all three of
these aspects are responsible for long-term global
climate changes (ice ages).
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Last
glaciation
Polar regions receive more than
average energy from the sun
Polar
regions
receive less
than average
energy from
the sun
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End of last
glaciation
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300
275
250
225
200
175
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
Note: Greenland’s ice sheet is 110,000 years old: melted in last interglacial period.
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above the atmosphere
at ground level
O2
H2O
Atmospheric absorption
H2O
H2O,CO2
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H2O, CO2
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plots show transmission of atmosphere (dip means absorption)
carbon monoxide
methane
nitrous oxide
ozone
carbon dioxide
heavy water vapor (contains deuterium)
water vapor
net transmission spectrum
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Often called the “hockey stick” curve
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Concept of radiative forcing
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from http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics/slr.cfm
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Note: this is a good example of real data: lots of measurements from different
scientists around the world all pointing to similar (and sensible) results. Note also error bars.
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Lecture 17
current rate is 3 mm/year → about a foot per century
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Boston if sea level
rises 3 meters
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Miami if sea level
rises 1 meter
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precipitation
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Calif. law: AB 32 Emissions Reductions
Required % CO2 change from 1990 levels
50%
CEC Data
40%
Business as Usual
AB 32 Scenario
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
1990
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Lecture 17
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
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The California commitment - scaled to the nation
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California Climate Strategy Supply Curve
250
3.0
200
Historic U. S.
emissions
U.S. GHG Emissions (GT C eq.)
Dollars per ton of CO2 eq.
Business as usual (EIA)
2.5
Administration intensity target
2.0
1.5
Kyoto protocol
1.0
CA targets scaled from 35 to 300
California AB 32, AB1493"
& EE 3-05 "
Scaled from CA!
million
to the nation!
0.5
Climate Stabilization Zone
100
50
Appliance Efficiency Stds.
Standards
Pavely (motor
vehicles)
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
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2020 Emissions
Reduction
Target
Coal Reduction Policy
EE Programs
HFC Reductions
0
-50
8
-100
6
-150
-250
Kammen, “September 27, 2006 – A day to remember”, San Francisco Chronicle, September 27,
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150
4
-200
0.0
1990
(As of October, 2007)
Simple Payback in
years
40
80
2
1
120
160
174
Tons of Reductions of CO2 in 2020 from a Baseline of 600 MtCO2 eq.
Source: http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2007-09-14_workshop/final_report/
2007-10-15_MACROECONOMIC_ANALYSIS.PDF
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8%
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17%
25%
33%
42%
50%
58%
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CO2 Emission Reduction Effects by Technology
(550ppm)
Global CO2 Abatement Opportunities
CO2 emissions and reductions/storages (M
-C)
25000
Fores tation
CO 2 emis s ions in
reference cas e
20000
Energy cons ervation
Fuel s witching
Bio mas s
Solar
15000
Wind
Hydro, geothermal
Nuclear
10000
ECBM
Sea abs orptions
Injection into aquifers
Net CO 2 emis s ions
(550pp m)
5000
Injection into abandoned gas well
EO R
Emis s ions after reductions
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Year
Vattenfall, 2007
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Summary of GHG Emissions for Typical U.S. Household
(LEAPS Results) 50 Metric tons of CO2 equivalent gases
56%
44%
public trans.
airlines
Indirect
Direct
Auto services
60
l)
oa
(C
Gasoline (Shale)
Gasoline (Tar Sands)
FT
45
40
FT (Coal CCD)
le
)
50
50
Auto
manufacturing
FT (Coal)
in
e
(S
ha
Gasoline
Ethanol (Corn Coal)
ol
Ethanol (Today)
nd
Sa
C
ay
)
l(
l(
30
Financing
25
Construction
20
Other fuels
15
n
10
or
s)
Natural
gas
as
2020 standard
om
l
se
)
n
or
)
se
lo
lu
C
C
l(
no
Electricity
Et
ha
l(
no
Et
ha
0
Snack food
Total
el
n
no
l(
Bi
C
om
el
C
lu
as
s
C
lo
C
se
)
C
D
or
C
l(
no
Et
ha
Et
ha
5
cereals
Alcohol & tobacco
Dairy
Gasoline
D
ie
od
Bi
0
Air travel
C
l(
no
Et
ha
10
public trans.
35
electricity
water & sewage
N
no
Et
ha
20
2007 standard
Ethanol (Cellulose CCD)
G
)
To
d
no
Et
ha
G
as
ol
in
C
e
or
n
Ethanol (Cellulose)
Ethanol (Corn Biomass CCD)
Bi
lC
oa
(C
FT
Ethanol (Corn Biomass)
oa
C
l)
D
)
(T
ar
e
in
ol
G
as
lbs CO2/gal gasoline equivalent
30
Gasoline
Ethanol (Corn NG)
Biodiesel
s)
G
as
40
other fuels
natural gas
Fruit & veg.
Eating out
1
furniture.
cleaning supplies.
entertainment.
Household equip.
-10
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Transportation
Housing
Meat
Clothing
Food
Goods
education
giving
healthcare
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Services
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Carbon sequestration:
A carbon-emission-free fossil-fuel economy"
Solving the climate
problem with
sequestration
requires a more
ambitious program
than yet exists."
Sequester
carbon!
Strategies
requiring CO2
or O2 separation!
Geologic"
Ocean
injection"
Carbon black
Silicate
storage"
weathering"
Strategies
not requiring
separation!
DOE goals:"
1 GtC/yr by 2025
4 GtC/yr by 2050"
Ocean
Carbonate
fertilization" weathering"
Land
biosphere"
Air
removal"
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30
20
10
0
0.0
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0.2
Red Clay Tile
0.4
0.6
0.8
Solar Absorptance
Black Paint
IR-Refl. Black
40
Green Asphalt Shingle
Galvanized Steel
Al Roof Coat.
Temperature Rise ( C)
50
Lt. Green Paint
Lt. Red Paint
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1.0
72
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United States Refrigerator Use, repeated, to compare with
Estimated Household Standby Use v. Time
Commercially available LEDs
Estimated Standby
Power (per house)
1800
1600
1400
Refrigerator Use per
Unit
• 0.1 to 1 watt
• Lumens/watts > 100 better
than kerosene lanterns
• Much better directionality adds
to this advantage
1978 Cal Standard
1200
1987 Cal Standard
1000
1980 Cal Standard
2007
STD.
800
1990 Federal
Standard
1993 Federal
Standard
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
1959
1957
1955
1953
1951
1949
0
1995
2001 Federal
Standard
200
1993
400
1991
600
1947
Average Energy Use per Unit Sold (kWh per year)
2000
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Lecture 17
Evan Mills
Energy Analysis Department
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Emills@lbl.gov
+ 1 510 486-6784
http://www.ifc.org/led
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Hoffert et al.ʼs Conclusions!
• “These results underscore the pitfalls of “wait and see”.”
• Without policy incentives to overcome socioeconomic inertia,
development of needed technologies will likely not occur soon
enough to allow capitalization on a 10-30 TW scale by 2050
• “Researching, developing, and commercializing carbon-free
primary power technologies capable of 10-30 TW by the
mid-21st century could require efforts, perhaps international,
pursued with the urgency of the Manhattan Project or the Apollo
Space Program.”
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A note of significance: none of these have yet stabilized as of 2100.
Even the green curve (eliminating CO2 emissions by 2100) is still
steadily climbing. This effect won’t play out until 2300 at least.
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Fargione, et
al, Science,
Feb 8, 2008
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