ECONOMIC REPORT
of the
HUDSON VALLEY
Third Quarter 2011
MARIST COLLEGE
Dr. Christy Huebner Caridi
Bureau of Economic Research
School of Management
Poughkeepsie, New York 12601
Edited by Leslie Bates
December 2011
This report is available on the Bureau of Economic Research homepage at
http://www.marist.edu/management/bureau
The support of research assistant Haley Hart and student research
assistant Serena Bubenheim is acknowledged and appreciated.
While every effort has been made to ensure that the information in this report is accurate, Marist College
cannot be held responsible for any remaining errors.
Hudson Valley Economic Review
Third Quarter 2011
As we near the close of 2011 the economy is beginning to show signs of improvement.
Real GDP is projected to grow at an annual rate of 2.00 percent: strong enough to begin to chip
away at the long-term joblessness and the underemployment that have been the hallmarks of the
Great Recession and its aftermath, but below the rate required to sustain full employment.
Nationwide, increasing labor productivity coupled with declining unit labor costs has fed
increases in corporate profits and business investment. Household income is also rising.
However, increases in the real wage have been few and far between. Consumer sentiment has
begun to improve but remains at historically low levels.
Although beginning to slow, labor-force participation continues to decline. Between the
third quarter of 2010 and the third quarter of 2011, labor-force participation posted a year-overyear decrease of 1.13 percent (13,005) from 1,148,095 participants in the third quarter of 2010 to
1,135,090 participants in the third quarter of 2011. Over the same one-year period, employment
declined .56 percent, from 1,061,933 to 1,055,969. Because the number of persons in the labor
force fell (13,005) by more than the reduction in employment (5,964), the unemployment rate
declined .43 percentage points, from 7.63 percent to 7.20 percent. Within the region, the
unemployment rate fell .57 percent in the lower Hudson Valley (Putnam-RocklandWestchester) and .32 percent in the upper Hudson Valley—Dutchess, Orange, Ulster and
Sullivan counties. Quarter over quarter (second to third quarters of 2011), average labor-force
participation and employment increased 14,957 and 13,689, respectively. The unemployment rate
fell .09 percentage points. Preliminary data for October 2011 shows a 400-person month-overmonth decline in the labor force and a 3,700 loss in employment. Within the region, the largest
year-over-year reduction in labor-force participation occurred in Ulster County at 1.97 percent,
followed by Dutchess (1.81 percent), Orange (1.81 percent) and Sullivan (1.80 percent). Laborforce participation fell less than one percent in Rockland, Westchester and Putnam at .77
percent, .67 percent and .41 percent, respectively. Over the same 12-month period, Ulster and
Sullivan counties recorded the largest relative declines in employment at 1.83 percent and 1.61
percent, respectively. Employment fell 1.28 percent in Dutchess and Orange counties and was
unchanged in Putnam, Rockland and Westchester.
Employment posted a year-over-year increase of .55 percent from 891,230 in the third
quarter of 2010 to 896,170 in the third quarter of 2011. Over the period, private-sector
employment increased 1.80 percent from 725,470 to 733,300 while public-sector employment fell
1.75 percent from 165,770 to 162,870. As of the third quarter, one out of every 5.5 jobs in the
Hudson Valley were in the public sector compared to one out of every 5.4 in the third quarter of
2010. Year over year, the private-sector job count advanced in the education and health sector
(3,733), the leisure and hospitality sector (3,267), the trade, transportation and utilities sector
(1,833) and the professional and business services sector (1,600). The financial services and other
services sectors advanced 233 and 333, respectively. Employment declined in the natural
resources, mining and construction sector (1,733), information sector (1,067) and the
manufacturing sector (367). In the Rockland-Westchester-Putnam, NY, MSA, year-over-year
employment advanced (6,600) from 555,800 in the third quarter of 2010 to 562,400 in the third
quarter of 2011. The private-sector job count advanced in the leisure and hospitality sector
(4,567), in the education and health sector (3,700), in the trade, transportation and utilities
sector (1,267) and in the business and professional services sector (700). Total public-sector
employment fell (1,267); employment in local government declined (667); local education
declined (1,100). In the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY, MSA (Dutchess and Orange
counties), employment fell (1000) from 247,600 in the third quarter of 2010 to 246,600 in the
third quarter of 2011. The private-sector job count advanced in the professional and business
services sector (667), the trade, transportation and utilities sector (600) and the health and
education sector (233). The job count declined in the leisure and hospitality sector (1,467) and
the information sector (267). Public-sector employment fell (1,100); employment in local
government declined (867); local education declined (1,267). In the Kingston, NY, MSA (Ulster
County), employment fell (500). The private-sector job count advanced in the business and
professional services sector (233) and the leisure and hospitality sector (167) and fell in the
education and health sector (267), the information sector (133) and the financial sector (67).
Public-sector employment fell (333); local government employment declined (233); local
education declined (200). Employment in Sullivan County declined (133). Public-sector
employment fell (200). Regional employment continues to move away from the goods-producing
industries in favor of the service-providing industries. As of the third quarter of 2011,
manufacturing accounted for 5.48 percent of total employment (6.70 percent of private
employment) compared to 5.30 percent of total employment in New York State (6.36 percent of
private employment). Natural resources, mining and construction accounted for 4.65 percent of
total employment and 5.68 percent of private employment. Statewide employment in the natural
resources, mining and construction industries was insignificant at less than 1.00 percent of total
and private employment. The dominant service-providing industries are the education and health
sector at 20.53 percent of total employment (25.09 percent of total private-sector employment),
followed by the trade, transportation and utilities sector at 19.22 percent of total employment
(23.49 percent of total private-sector employment). Statewide, employment in the health and
education sector accounted for 19.66 percent of total employment (23.63 percent of private-sector
employment); the trade, transportation and utilities sector accounted for 16.91 percent of total
employment (20.33 percent of private-sector employment).
Both private and public sector wages posted year-over-year increases. The Average Weekly
Wage (AWW) in the private sector—valued in current dollars—advanced in every county in the
Hudson Valley region, with Westchester County posting the highest increase at 3.97 percent,
followed by Putnam and Dutchess counties at 3.61 percent and 3.44 percent, respectively. The
smallest year-over-year increase occurred in Sullivan County at 1.43 percent. Public-sector
wages—valued in current dollars —increased throughout the region, with Rockland County
recording the largest year-over-year increase at 10.14 percent, followed by Putnam (8.36 percent),
Orange (7.93 percent), Dutchess (7.73 percent), Sullivan (7.47 percent) and Ulster (6.19 percent).
Westchester County witnessed the smallest increase at 1.63 percent. The current dollar AWW
paid in the traditionally high-wage, goods-producing sector (manufacturing, construction and
mining) increased year over year in every county with the exception of Putnam. The largest
percentage increase occurred in Dutchess County at 5.09 percent; the lowest in Westchester
County at 1.16 percent; and Putnam recorded a .55 percent year-over-year decline. The current
dollar AWW in the private service-providing industries advanced throughout the region. Putnam
County recorded the highest increase at 5.16 percent, followed by Westchester (4.60 percent),
Rockland (3.45 percent), Dutchess (2.98 percent), Ulster (2.71 percent), Sullivan (1.56 percent)
and Orange (1.33 percent). As is consistent with the geographic proximity and strong economic
cross-flows with New York City, the average nonfarm-sector wage paid in the southernmost
counties of Rockland and Westchester is the highest within the Hudson Valley region. The
highest AWW in the goods-producing industries occurred in Dutchess and Westchester counties
at $1,644 and $1,498, respectively.
The reduction in the regional job-count—22,733 private-sector jobs and 6,567 publicsector jobs since the near-term peak reached in the third quarter of 2008—coupled with the
elevated level of unemployment and underemployment, has placed downward pressure on
current dollar wage increases in general and real wage increases in particular. During the fouryear period beginning in the second quarter of 2007 and ending in the second quarter of 2011, the
year-over-year change in the real AWW paid in the private sector fell as often as it increased. All
seven counties experienced at least one year of negative real wage growth. Ulster County
experienced the most at four consecutive years; Putnam County experienced the least at one
year. In direct contrast, the real AWW paid in the public-sector has—on average—increased in
each of the last four years. Factors that have contributed to this trend in the public sector are
contractual wage increases, overtime pay and last-in first-out layoffs.
A continuing theme throughout the Great Recession and its aftermath has been the
increased reliance on income maintenance payments. As of the third quarter of 2011, one out of every
10.6 persons in the Hudson Valley received food-stamp benefits; one out of every 67, Temporary
Assistance benefits; and one out of every 20, home-energy assistance. The collective cost: $149.73
million. Quarter over quarter, the number of Hudson Valley residents who received monthly
food-stamp benefits increased 2.45 percent, from 210,918 in the second quarter of 2011 to 216,094
in the third quarter. Over the same three-month period, total food-stamp expenditures increased
3.70 percent from $89.2 million in the second quarter to $92.5 million in the third quarter. The
average monthly benefit was $142.70 per person per month up from $140.90 in the second
quarter. Within the region, the number of food-stamp recipients increased in Westchester
(2,553), Orange (1,238), Rockland (1,110), Ulster (158), Dutchess (87) and Sullivan (5).
Westchester and Orange counties recorded the largest percentage increases at 3.51 percent and
2.88 percent, respectively. As of the third quarter, Sullivan County was the most dependent on
food-stamp benefits at one out of every 6.9 persons, followed by Rockland and Orange counties
at 7.7 and 8.4, respectively. Putnam County was the least dependent at 47.6 followed by
Dutchess County at 13.1. Year over year, the number of monthly food-stamp recipients increased
12.59 percent, down relative to the 14.15 percent increase for the one-year period ending in June
of 2011. The number of Hudson Valley residents who received monthly Temporary Assistance
(TA) benefits—which includes Family Assistance (FA) and Safety Net Assistance (SNA)—
declined from 34,043 in the second quarter of 2011 to 33,993 in the third quarter of 2011. Within
the region the number of TA recipients increased in Orange (236), Rockland (100) and Dutchess
(95) and decreased in Westchester (311), Sullivan (138), Ulster (20) and Putnam (12). The
largest percentage change occurred in Putnam County at negative 6.86 percent. Over the same
three-month period, total TA expenditures fell 6.80 percent from $15.48 million per month in
the second quarter to $14.43 million per month in the third quarter. The average monthly perperson SNA and FA benefits were $476.00 and $380.00, respectively, down from $518.00 and
$398.00 in the second quarter. Within the region, Sullivan County is the most dependent on
monthly TA benefits at one out of every 38.8 persons, followed by Orange and Ulster counties at
50.3 and 51.2, respectively. Putnam County is the least dependent at 612.0 followed by Dutchess
County at 97.7. Year over year, TA recipients increased 4.60 percent from 32,500 persons per
month in the third quarter of 2010 to 33,993 persons in the third quarter of 2011. Over the same
one-year period, the monthly expenditure for TA increased 7.44 percent from $13.43 million per
month to $14.43 million per month. The number of Hudson Valley residents who received homeenergy assistance increased 2.17 percent from 110,337 persons per month in the second quarter of
2011 to 112,737 persons in the third quarter. The average benefit paid in the third quarter was
$126.61 per recipient per month up from $109.96 per recipient per month in the second quarter.
Within the region, the number of home-energy recipients increased in Orange (798), Ulster
(541), Rockland (375), Dutchess (342), Sullivan (259), Westchester (62) and Putnam (23). The
largest percentage increase occurred in Orange County at 3.45 percent. Over the same threemonth period, home-energy expenditures increased 17.65 percent from $36.4 million per month
in the second quarter to $42.8 million per month in the third quarter.
The housing market continues to favor buyers. Region-wide, the third-quarter 2011 median
selling price of an existing single-family home fell relative to the third quarter of 2010, making it
the fifth consecutive year in which at least one county in the region witnessed a year-over-year
decline in the median selling price. Within the region, Ulster County experienced the largest
decline at 6.39 percent, followed by Westchester (6.30 percent), Dutchess (5.64 percent), Sullivan
(4.90 percent) and Orange (4.76 percent). Putnam and Rockland counties recorded the smallest
declines at 1.49 percent and 1.65 percent, respectively. Over the same one-year period, the median
selling price of a single-family home fell 3.51 percent in New York State and 6.99 percent
nationwide. Over the same one-year period, sales volume increased 12.00 percent from 2,877
homes sold in the third quarter of 2010 to 3,222 homes sold in the third quarter of 2011. Dutchess
County recorded the largest year-over-year increase at 29.94 percent followed by Sullivan and
Ulster at 24.14 percent and 10.55 percent, respectively. Sales volume increased 9.02 percent in
Putnam, 8.78 percent in Westchester, 7.42 percent in Rockland and 3.96 percent in Orange. Yearover-year, sales volume advanced 17.59 percent in New York State and 9.82 percent nationwide.
The persistent uncertainty in the market for single-family homes continues to place
downward pressure on the demand for new single-family housing. Year to date, the demand for
single-family construction permits fell 21.76 percent from 818 construction permits with an
average cost of $217,000 per permit during the first nine months of 2010 to 640 construction
permits with an average cost of $357,000 per permit during the first nine months of 2011. Total
construction costs increased $11.90 million from $216.50 million in the first nine months of 2010
to $228.40 in the first nine months of 2011. For the period, the Poughkeepsie–Newburgh–
Middletown MSA (Dutchess and Orange counties) issued the largest number of single-family
permits at 277, followed by Westchester and Rockland counties at 134 and 77, respectively.
Putnam County issued the least at 37. The largest year-over-year decline occurred in the
Poughkeepsie–Newburgh–Middletown MSA at 90, followed by Ulster County at 50. During the
first nine months of 2011, 92 multifamily construction permits were issued, compared to 93
during the first nine months of 2010. Total construction cost advanced $13.20 million, from
$66.10 million in 2010 to $79.30 million in 2011. As of September 2011, the most active location
within the region was the town of Greenburgh in Westchester County, followed by Yonkers in
Westchester County.
Hudson Valley Labor Force
Labor-force participation and employment post year-over-year declines.
The rate of decrease is beginning to slow.
Employment
Labor Force
Region-wide, labor-force participation posted a year-over-year decline of 1.13 percent
(13,005) from 1,148,095 participants in the third quarter of 2010 to 1,135,090 participants in the
third quarter of 2011.
1,200,000
1,140,000
Sixty-four percent of
this decline occurred
1,180,000
1,120,000
in the upper Hudson
Valley region—
1,160,000
1,100,000
Dutchess, Orange,
Sullivan and Ulster.
1,140,000
1,080,000
Over the same period,
region-wide
1,120,000
1,060,000
employment declined
.56 percent, from
1,100,000
1,040,000
1,061,933 to 1,055,969.
1,080,000
1,020,000
Ninety-eight percent
Labor Force
of this loss occurred in
Employment
1,060,000
1,000,000
the upper Hudson
Valley region. Because
the number of persons
in the labor force fell (13,005) by more than the reduction in employment (5,964), the
unemployment rate declined .43 percentage points, from 7.63 percent to 7.20 percent. Within
the region, the unemployment rate fell .57 percent in the lower Hudson Valley (PutnamRocklandWestchester) and .32
20000
percent in the upper
10000
Hudson Valley —
0
Dutchess, Orange,
Ulster and Sullivan
‐10000
counties. Quarter
‐20000
over quarter (second
‐30000
Year-Over-Year Change
to third quarters of
‐40000
in Employment
2011), average laborYear-Over-Year Change
‐50000
in the Labor Force
force participation
‐60000
and employment
increased 14,957 and
13,689, respectively.
The unemployment
rate fell .09 percentage points. Preliminary data for October 2011 shows a 400-person monthover-month decline in the labor force and a 3,700 loss in employment.
Region-wide, employment and labor-force participation peaked in July of 2008 at
1,130,800 and 1,191,800, respectively. The unemployment rate was 5.12 percent. Since that date,
2011-10
2011-7
2010-7
2009-7
2008-7
2011‐10
2011‐7
2010‐7
2009‐7
2008‐7
1 of 10
labor-force participation by Hudson Valley residents has fallen 4.76 percent (56,710), and
employment has declined 6.62 percent (74,831).
Within the region, the largest year-over-year reduction in labor-force participation
occurred in Ulster County at 1.97 percent, followed by Dutchess (1.81 percent), Orange (1.81
percent) and Sullivan (1.80 percent). Labor-force participation fell less than one percent in
Rockland, Westchester and Putnam at .77 percent, .67 percent and .41 percent, respectively.
Over the same 12-month period, Ulster and Sullivan counties recorded the largest relative
declines in employment at 1.83 percent and 1.61 percent, respectively. Employment fell 1.28
percent in Dutchess and Orange counties and was unchanged in Putnam, Rockland and
Westchester.
Nonfarm Employment by Place of Work1
Year over year, job creation resulted in a gain of 4,933 jobs.
Employment in the private sector increased 7,833.
Year over year, employment in the Hudson Valley grew .55 from 891,230 in the third
quarter of 2010 to 896,170 in the third quarter of 2011. Over the period, private-sector
employment
increased 1.80
Year‐Over‐Year Change in Employment
percent from
Private
725,470 to 733,300
Total
while public-sector
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
employment fell
Professional and Business Services
1.75 percent from
Other Services
165,770 to 162,870.
Natural Resources, Mining and …
As of the third
Manufacturing
quarter, one out of
Leisure and Hospitality
every 5.5 jobs in the
Information
Hudson Valley were
Government in the public sector
Financial Activities
compared to one
Education and Health Services
out of every 5.4 in
the third quarter of
‐4000 ‐2000
0
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
2010.
Year over year, the private-sector job count advanced in the education and health sector
(3,733), the leisure and hospitality sector (3,267), the trade, transportation and utilities sector
(1,833) and the professional and business services sector (1,600). The financial services and other
services sectors advanced 233 and 333, respectively. Employment declined in the natural
resources, mining and construction sector (1,733), information sector (1,067) and the
manufacturing sector (367).
1
Current Employment Statistics (CES): survey of sample employers excludes self-employed, agricultural, domestic workers and the
military. Place of Work Series. The employment figures in this section are three-month averages.
2 of 10
In the Rockland-Westchester-Putnam, NY, MSA, year-over-year employment advanced
(6,600) from 555,800 in the third quarter of 2010 to 562,400 in the third quarter of 2011. The
private-sector job count advanced in the leisure and
hospitality sector (4,567), in the education and health
sector (3,700), in the trade, transportation and utilities
Third-quarter employment in the
sector (1,267) and in the business and professional
Hudson Valley at 896,170 was
services sector (700). Total public-sector employment
3.18% below the near-term peak
fell (1,267); employment in local government declined
reached in the third quarter of
(667); local education declined (1,100). In the
Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY, MSA
2008. Over this three-year period,
(Dutchess and Orange counties), employment fell
the job count in the private sector
(1000) from 247,600 in the third quarter of 2010 to
has fallen 2.47% (22,733); public246,600 in the third quarter of 2011. The private-sector
sector employment has fallen .71%
job count advanced in the professional and business
(6,567). The total job loss: 29,300. services sector (667), the trade, transportation and
utilities sector (600) and the health and education
sector (233). The job count declined in the leisure and
hospitality sector (1,467) and the information sector
(267). Public-sector employment fell (1,100); employment in local government declined (867);
local education declined (1,267). In the Kingston, NY, MSA (Ulster County), employment fell
(500). The private-sector job count advanced in the business and professional services sector
(233) and the leisure and hospitality sector (167) and fell in the education and health sector (267),
the information sector (133) and the financial sector (67). Public-sector employment fell (333);
local government employment declined (233); local education declined (200). Employment in
Sullivan County declined (133). Public-sector employment fell (200).
Regional employment continues to move away from the goods-producing industries in
favor of the service-providing industries. As of the third quarter of 2011, manufacturing accounted
for 5.48 percent of total employment (6.70 percent of private employment) compared to 5.30
percent of total employment in New York State (6.36 percent of private employment). Natural
resources, mining and construction accounted for 4.65 percent of total employment and 5.68
percent of private employment. Statewide employment in the natural resources, mining and
construction industries was insignificant at less than 1.00 percent of total and private
employment. The dominant service-providing industries are the education and health sector at
20.53 percent of total employment (25.09 percent of total private-sector employment), followed
by the trade, transportation and utilities sector at 19.22 percent of total employment (23.49
percent of total private-sector employment). Statewide employment in the health and education
sector accounted for 19.66 percent of total employment (23.63 percent of private-sector
employment); the trade, transportation and utilities sector accounted for 16.91 percent of total
employment (20.33 percent of private-sector employment).
3 of 10
Second-Quarter 2011 Average Weekly Wages Valued in Current Dollars2
Both private and public sector wages posted
year over year increases.
Year over year, the Average Weekly Wage (AWW) in the private sector—valued in
current dollars—advanced in every
county in the Hudson Valley region
Average Weekly Wages (QCEW Data)
with Westchester County posting the
GoodsServicehighest percentage increase at 3.97
All Private Producing
Providing Government
percent, followed by Putnam and
Dutchess
Dutchess counties at 3.61 percent and
$837
$1,484
$669
$1,074
2008.Q2
3.44 percent, respectively. The smallest 2009.Q2
$852
$1,560
$687
$1,078
year-over-year increase occurred in
$856
$1,565
$704
$1,124
2010.Q2
$886
$1,644
$725
$1,211
2011.Q2
Sullivan County at 1.43 percent. PublicOrange
sector wages—valued in current dollars
$661
$832
$638
$1,080
—increased throughout the region with 2008.Q2
$674
$844
$654
$1,130
2009.Q2
Rockland County recording the largest 2010.Q2
$678
$857
$659
$1,154
year-over-year increase at 10.14 percent, 2011.Q2
$690
$894
$668
$1,246
followed by Putnam (8.36 percent),
Putnam
Orange (7.93 percent), Dutchess (7.73
$764
$987
$713
$1,314
2008.Q2
$765
$968
$722
$1,374
2009.Q2
percent), Sullivan (7.47 percent) and
$784
$977
$744
$1,389
2010.Q2
Ulster (6.19 percent). Westchester
$812
$972
$782
$1,506
2011.Q2
County witnessed the smallest increase
Rockland
at 1.63 percent. The current dollar
$869
$1,239
$785
$1,118
2008.Q2
AWW paid in the traditionally high$862
$1,230
$784
$1,119
2009.Q2
wage, goods-producing sector
$901
$1,316
$822
$1,165
2010.Q2
(manufacturing, construction and
$927
$1,355
$850
$1,283
2011.Q2
Sullivan
mining) increased year over year in
$581
$646
$570
$981
2008.Q2
every county with the exception of
$573
$634
$565
$989
2009.Q2
Putnam. The largest percentage
$575
$623
$567
$1,011
2010.Q2
increase occurred in Dutchess County
$583
$652
$576
$1,086
2011.Q2
at 5.09 percent; the lowest in
Ulster
Westchester County at 1.16 percent;
$602
$827
$566
$1,031
2008.Q2
and Putnam recorded a .55 percent
$600
$800
$572
$1,054
2009.Q2
year-over-year decline. The current
$605
$796
$579
$1,087
2010.Q2
$622
$820
$594
$1,155
2011.Q2
dollar AWW in the private serviceWestchester
providing industries advanced
$1,102
$1,456
$1,052
$1,349
throughout the region. Putnam County 2008.Q2
$1,063
$1,353
$1,027
$1,427
2009.Q2
recorded the highest increase at 5.16
$1,108
$1,481
$1,065
$1,466
2010.Q2
percent, followed by Westchester (4.60 2011.Q2
$1,152
$1,498
$1,113
$1,489
percent), Rockland (3.45 percent),
Dutchess (2.98 percent), Ulster (2.71 percent), Sullivan (1.56 percent) and Orange (1.33 percent).
As is consistent with the geographic proximity and strong economic cross-flows with New York
City, the average nonfarm-sector wage paid in the southernmost counties of Rockland and
2
Average weekly wage data was secured through a special request to the New York State Department of Labor.
4 of 10
Westchester is the highest within the Hudson Valley region. The highest AWW in the goodsproducing industries occurred in Dutchess and Westchester counties at $1,644 and $1,498,
respectively.
Second-Quarter 2011 Average
Weekly Wages Adjusted for Inflation
As noted in the first section of this current report, employment in the Hudson Valley
Region reached a near-term peak in the third quarter of 2008. Since that time the region has
shed 22,733 private-sector jobs and 6,567 public-sector jobs. This reduction in the regional jobcount, coupled with an elevated level of
Average Weekly Wages (QCEW Data)
unemployment and underemployment,
Year-over- Year Real % Change
has placed downward pressure on
All GoodsServicecurrent dollar wage increases in general
Private
Producing Providing Government
(see previous section) and real dollar
Dutchess
wage3 increases in particular. This
2008.Q2
-0.04%
2.35%
-0.30%
1.82%
1.91%
5.22%
2.83%
0.40%
phenomenon is most pronounced in the 2009.Q2
2010.Q2
-1.64%
-1.87%
0.29%
2.11%
private sector. During the four-year
2010.22011.2
2.90%
2009.22010.2
2008.22009.2
2007.22008.2
2.16%
-0.07%
3.96%
All Item CPI: Bureau of Labor Statistics
period beginning in the second quarter
of 2007 and ending in the second
quarter of 2011, the year-over-year
change in the real AWW paid in the
private sector fell as often as it
increased. All seven counties
experienced at least one year of negative
real wage growth. Ulster County
experienced the most at four
consecutive years; Putnam County
experienced the least at one year. In
direct contrast, the real AWW paid in
the public-sector has—on average—
2011.Q2
Orange
2008.Q2
2009.Q2
2010.Q2
2011.Q2
Putnam
2008.Q2
2009.Q2
2010.Q2
2011.Q2
Rockland
2008.Q2
2009.Q2
2010.Q2
2011.Q2
Sullivan
2008.Q2
2009.Q2
2010.Q2
2011.Q2
Ulster
2008.Q2
2009.Q2
2010.Q2
2011.Q2
Westchester
2008.Q2
2009.Q2
2010.Q2
2011.Q2
0.54%
2.19%
0.08%
4.83%
-1.88%
2.03%
-1.44%
-1.24%
-2.11%
1.55%
-0.67%
1.48%
-1.83%
2.64%
-1.46%
-1.57%
1.00%
4.77%
-0.05%
5.03%
-2.37%
0.20%
0.33%
0.71%
0.53%
-1.88%
-1.18%
-3.45%
-2.52%
1.37%
0.85%
2.26%
3.52%
4.61%
-1.05%
5.46%
-2.66%
-0.78%
2.42%
-0.05%
0.02%
-0.70%
4.85%
0.08%
-3.34%
-0.06%
2.63%
0.55%
2.30%
0.19%
1.99%
7.24%
2.24%
-1.30%
-1.79%
-1.47%
1.39%
-1.81%
-3.93%
1.68%
2.05%
-0.83%
-1.79%
-1.34%
1.03%
0.84%
0.08%
4.57%
-4.49%
-0.32%
-1.28%
-0.16%
-1.67%
-3.25%
-2.70%
0.19%
-5.07%
1.06%
-0.91%
-0.19%
2.25%
2.29%
1.04%
3.29%
-2.57%
-3.44%
2.04%
1.07%
5.94%
-7.00%
7.27%
-1.74%
-4.08%
-2.32%
1.46%
1.70%
1.60%
5.88%
0.54%
-1.27%
3
The change in the real wage is the year-over-year percentage change in the current dollar wage less the year-over-year change
in the CPI. The applicable CPI index is the all item urban price index for the New York Northern New Jersey–Long Island, NY,
statistical area. The CPI index is a product of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
5 of 10
increased in each of the last four years. Factors that have contributed to this trend are
contractual wage increases, overtime pay and last-in first-out layoffs.
Monthly Income Maintenance Benefits (Social Assistance)
The household budget continues to be negatively impacted by the rising price of
necessities, slow job growth, underemployment and unemployment. The consequence:
increased dependence on food stamps, temporary assistance and home-energy assistance.
Quarter over Quarter Change
Number of Monthy Recipients
Quarter over quarter, the number of Hudson Valley residents who received monthly
food-stamp benefits increased 2.45 percent, from 210,918 in the second quarter of 2011 to 216,094
in the third quarter. Over the same three-month period, total food-stamp expenditures increased
3.70 percent from $89.2 million in the second quarter to $92.5 million in the third quarter. The
average monthly benefit was
$142.70 per person per
Change in the Average Number of Monthly
Food Stamp Recipients: Quarterly Data
month up from $140.90 in the
250,000
12000
second quarter. Within the
10000
region the number of food200,000
stamp recipients increased in
8000
Westchester (2,553), Orange
150,000
6000
(1,238), Rockland (1,110),
4000
100,000
Ulster (158), Dutchess (87)
2000
and Sullivan (5).
50,000
Westchester and Orange
0
counties recorded the largest
0
‐2000
percentage increases at 3.51
percent and 2.88 percent,
respectively. As of the third quarter, Sullivan County was the most dependent on food-stamp
benefits at one out of every 6.9 persons, followed by Rockland and Orange counties at 7.7 and
8.4, respectively. Putnam County was the least dependent at 47.6 followed by Dutchess County
at 13.1. Year over year, the number of monthly foodstamp recipients increased 12.59 percent, down relative
to the 14.15 percent increase for the one-year period
As of the third quarter of 2011:
ending in June of 2011.
one out of every 10.6 persons
Quarter over quarter, the number of Hudson
in the Hudson Valley received
Valley residents who received monthly Temporary
food-stamp benefits; one out
Assistance (TA) benefits—which includes Family
of every 67 received
Assistance (FA)4 and Safety Net Assistance (SNA)5—
Temporary Assistance
declined from 34,043 in the second quarter of 2011 to
benefits and one out of every
33,993 in the third quarter of 2011. Within the region
20 received home-energy
the number of TA recipients increased in Orange (236),
assistance. Rockland (100) and Dutchess (95) and decreased in
Westchester (311), Sullivan (138), Ulster (20) and
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
4
As of December 1996, Family Assistance is limited to 60 months per lifetime. To be eligible for Family Assistance, the
household must include (care for) a minor child.
5
Safety Net Assistance has a lifetime limit of two years.
6 of 10
Putnam (12). The largest percentage change occurred in Putnam County at negative 6.86
percent. Over the same three-month period, total TA expenditures fell 6.80 percent from $15.48
million per month in the second quarter to $14.43 million per month in the third quarter. The
average monthly per-person SNA and FA benefits were $476.00 and $380.00, respectively, down
from $518.00 and $398.00 in the second quarter. Within the region, Sullivan County is the most
dependent on monthly TA benefits at one out of every 38.8 persons, followed by Orange and
Ulster counties at 50.3 and 51.2, respectively. Putnam County is the least dependent at 612.0
followed by Dutchess County at 97.7. Year over year, TA recipients increased 4.60 percent from
32,500 persons per month in the third quarter of 2010 to 33,993 persons in the third quarter of
2011. Over the same one-year period, the monthly expenditure for TA increased 7.44 percent
from $13.43 million per month to $14.43 million per month.
Quarter over quarter, the number of Hudson Valley residents who received home-energy
assistance6 increased 2.17 percent from 110,337 persons per month in the second quarter of 2011
to 112,737 persons in the third quarter. The average benefit paid in the third quarter was $126.61
per recipient per month up from $109.96 per recipient per month in the second quarter. Within
the region, the number of home-energy recipients increased in Orange (798), Ulster (541),
Rockland (375), Dutchess (342), Sullivan (259), Westchester (62) and Putnam (23). The largest
percentage increase occurred in Orange County at 3.45 percent. Over the same three-month
period, home-energy expenditures increased 17.65 percent from $36.4 million per month in the
second quarter to $42.8 million per month in the third quarter.
Home Sales, Prices and Building Permits
Sales volume improves. Home prices continue to decline.
Foreclosures begin to level off.
The market for single-family homes continues to favor buyers. Region-wide, the thirdquarter 2011 median selling
Peak
Peak Median
3rd Qt
%
price of an existing singleCounty
Date
Price
Median Price
Change
family home fell relative to
Dutchess
2006.Q3
$360,000
$259,500
-27.92%
the third quarter of 2010,
making it the fifth
Orange
2007.Q3
$330,000
$255,720
-22.51%
consecutive year in which
at least one county in the
Putnam
2006.Q2
$435,777
$330,000
-24.27%
region witnessed a yearRockland
2005.Q3
$529,950
$418,000
-21.12%
over-year decline in the
median selling price.
Sullivan
2007.Q2
$187,400
$121,250
-35.33%
Within the region, Ulster
Ulster
2007.Q3
$265,000
$205,000
-22.64%
County experienced the
largest year-over-year
Westchester
2007.Q3
$730,000
$684,005
-6.30%
decline at 6.39 percent,
6
The Home Energy Assistance Program (HEAP) is a federally funded program that helps low-income households pay for home heating and the
repair and replacement of home-heating equipment.
7 of 10
followed by Westchester (6.30 percent), Dutchess (5.64 percent), Sullivan (4.90 percent) and
Orange (4.76 percent). Putnam and Rockland counties recorded the smallest declines at 1.49
percent and 1.65 percent, respectively. Over the same one-year period, the median
selling price of a single-family home fell 3.51 percent in New York State and 6.99 percent
nationwide.
Year over
year, sales volume
Year-over-Year Change in the Median Selling Price of a Single-Family Home
increased 12.00
Third
percent from 2,877
Quarter Dutchess
Orange
Putnam Rockland Sullivan
Ulster
Westchester
homes sold in the
third quarter of 2010
2007
-$25,000
$5,000
$25,000
$10,000
$11,250
$2,350
$25,000
to 3,222 homes sold
in the third quarter of
2008
-$25,100 -$44,345 -$55,000 -$52,500 -$26,500 -$15,000
-$20,000
2011. Dutchess
County recorded the
2009
-$29,900 -$25,655 -$45,000 -$30,900 -$35,500 -$46,250
-$80,000
largest year-over-year
2010
-$5,000
$8,500
$5,000
-$6,600
$4,000
$15,250
$100,000
increase at 29.94
percent followed by
2011
-$15,500 -$12,780
-$5,000
-$7,000
-$6,250 -$14,000
-$45,995
Sullivan and Ulster at
24.14 percent and 10.55 percent, respectively. Sales volume increased 9.02 percent in Putnam, 8.78
percent in Westchester, 7.42 percent in Rockland and 3.96 percent in Orange. Over the same
period, sales volume advanced 17.59 percent in New York State and 9.82 percent nationwide.
The persistent uncertainty in the market for single-family homes continues to place downward
pressure on the demand for new housing. Year to date, the demand for single-family
construction permits fell 21.76 percent from 818 construction permits with an average cost of
$217,000 per permit during the first nine months of 2010
to 640 construction permits with an average cost of
Single-Family Housing Permits
January-September 2011: U.S. Census Bureau
$357,000 per permit during the first nine months of
2011. Total construction costs increased $11.90 million
Area
Permits Construction Costs
from $216.50 million in the first nine months of 2010 to Dutchess/Orange
277
$65,708,000
$228.40 in the first nine months of 2011. For the period, Putnam
37
$11,848,419
the Poughkeepsie–Newburgh–Middletown MSA
Rockland
77
$17,061,862
(Dutchess and Orange counties) issued the largest
Sullivan
72
$7,395,749
number of single-family permits at 277, followed by
Ulster
43
$12,172,000
Westchester and Rockland counties at 134 and 77,
134
$121,556,504
respectively. Putnam County issued the least at 37. The Westchester
largest year-over-year decline occurred in the
Hudson Valley
640
$235,742,534
Poughkeepsie–Newburgh–Middletown MSA at 90, followed by Ulster County at 50.
During the first nine months of 2011, 92 multifamily construction permits were issued,
compared to 93 during the first nine months of 2010. Total construction cost advanced $13.20
million, from $66.10 million in 2010 to $79.30 million in 2011. As of September 2011, the most
active location within the region was the town of Greenburgh in Westchester County, followed
by Yonkers in Westchester County.
8 of 10
Multifamily Construction Permits January–September 2011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
County
Town/Village
Number of
Buildings
Number of
Units
Value of
Construction
Permit
Average
Construction Cost
per Unit
Dutchess/Orange
Kiryas Joel Village
Montgomery Town
Montgomery Village
New Windsor Town
Newburgh
Wallkill Town
Total
3
2
10
11
5
3
34
26
4
55
84
33
30
232
$2,952,857
$1,360,000
$2,807,288
$9,803,892
$1,603,590
$2,600,000
$21,127,627
$113,571
$340,000
$51,042
$116,713
$48,594
$86,667
$91,067
Patterson Town
Southeast Town
Total
1
1
2
5
2
7
$304,167
$112,500
$416,667
$60,833
$56,250
$59,524
Kaser Village
New Square Village
Ramapo Town
Spring Valley
Village
Total
2
2
8
5
8
6
40
10
$765,774
$830,000
$3,540,779
$1,550,000
$95,722
$138,333
$88,519
$155,000
17
64
$6,686,553
$104,477
Putnam
Rockland
Sullivan
Fallsburg Town
Total
8
8
16
16
$648,755
$648,755
$40,547
$40,547
Ulster
Esopus Town
Total
1
1
2
2
$220,000
$220,000
$110,000
$110,000
Westchester
Cortlandt Town
Greenburgh Town
Irvington Village
Mount Vernon
Port Chester Village
Somers Town
Tuckahoe Village
Yonkers
Total
4
13
1
1
1
1
1
8
30
92
350
3
2
2
13
2
124
588
$6,310,400
$22,147,144
$1,500,000
$143,574
$200,000
$1,602,740
$240,000
$18,070,634
$50,214,492
$68,591
$63,278
$500,000
$71,787
$100,000
$123,288
$120,000
$145,731
$85,399
92
909
$79,314,094
$87,254
Region-wide
9 of 10
Sales-Tax Collection
Every county in the region experiences a
year-over-year decline in sales-tax revenue.
An important indicator of retail sales activity and state and county revenue is
sales-tax collection. Year over year, total sales-tax collection increased 3.54 percent,
from $296.2 million in the third quarter of 2010 to $306.7 million in the third quarter
of 2011. The largest year-over-year dollar increase occurred in Orange County at $4.86
million (8.50 percent), followed by Ulster and Rockland counties at $1.69 million and
$1.66 million.
2011.Q3
2010.Q3
2009.Q3
2008.Q3
2007.Q3
2006.Q3
Dutchess
$40,319,496
$40,314,043
$35,797,119
$41,583,570
$39,410,874
$38,411,271
Orange
$62,087,297
$57,224,096
$54,232,791
$59,777,665
$56,859,224
$55,947,753
Putnam
$12,989,628
$12,496,269
$12,086,192
$13,702,969
$11,788,835
$11,352,970
Rockland
$43,109,819
$41,450,315
$41,670,303
$44,473,849
$43,194,708
$40,033,679
$9,662,365
$9,495,109
$9,629,777
$11,251,801
$10,263,866
$9,448,145
Sullivan
Ulster
$27,153,112
$25,467,067
$24,427,327
$27,008,397
$25,898,073
$26,137,599
Westchester
$111,363,663
$109,761,933
$104,774,825
$118,979,962
$115,248,658
$113,135,478
Hudson Valley
$306,685,380
$296,208,832
$282,618,334
$316,778,213
$302,664,238
$294,466,895
10 of 10