ECONOMIC REPORT
of the
HUDSON VALLEY
Second Quarter 2012
MARIST COLLEGE
Dr. Christy Huebner Caridi
Bureau of Economic Research
School of Management
Poughkeepsie, New York 12601
Edited by Leslie Bates
September 2012
This report is available on the Bureau of Economic Research homepage at
http://www.marist.edu/management/bureau
The support of research assistant Cody Scalzo is acknowledged and appreciated.
While every effort has been made to ensure that the information in this report is accurate, Marist College
cannot be held responsible for any remaining errors.
Hudson Valley Summary
The regional labor market and private-sector job count is beginning to improve albeit at a slow and
uneven pace, with the southernmost counties—Putnam, Rockland, and Westchester—rebuilding their
labor market at a faster rate than the counties of the upper Hudson Valley region—Dutchess, Orange,
Sullivan, and Ulster. Regionwide, private-sector job creation continues to outpace new employment and
is heavily weighted toward jobs with average wages at or below $34,000 per year. Job creation in the
traditional “high-wage” sectors—average wages at or above $87,000 per year—continues to lag.
Year over year, the regional labor force, employment, and private-sector job count changed little, rising
0.9 percent, 0.25 percent, and 1.30 percent, respectively. In contrast, during the first eight months of 2012,
the regional labor force increased 3.28 percent while employment and the private-sector job count
advanced 2.16 percent and 2.13 percent, respectively. Intra-region, labor force participation, employment,
and the private-sector job count in the lower Hudson Valley increased 3.89 percent, 2.80 percent, and
3.25 percent compared to 2.34 percent, 1.18 percent, and 0.15 percent in the upper Hudson Valley.
As has been the case in recent periods, the regional labor force has grown at a faster pace than the level of
employment, resulting in an increase in the unemployment rate. Year over year, the regional
unemployment rate advanced .66 percentage points from 6.94 percent in the second quarter of 2011 to
7.60 percent in the second quarter of 2012. The unemployment rate in the lower Hudson Valley advanced
0.56 percentage points from 6.47 percent to 7.03 percent while in the upper Hudson Valley the
unemployment rate advanced 0.75 percentage points from 7.68 percent to 8.43 percent. Between
December of 2011 and August of 2012, the regional employment rate increased 1.01 percentage points,
rising from 6.87 percent to 7.88 percent.
Relative to the inter-recession trough—an important benchmark—the region has recaptured 52.90
percent of the labor force lost to the recession, slightly less than 35.00 percent of the employment, and 82
percent of all private-sector jobs. As noted, the labor force in the lower Hudson Valley is recovering at a
faster rate than the labor force in the upper Hudson Valley. As of August 2012, the lower Hudson Valley
had recaptured 54.44 percent of the labor force lost to the recession and 37.62 percent of the employment
compared to 49.42 and 38.08 percent in the upper Hudson Valley region. In contrast, there was no
significant difference between the intra-regional rates of private-sector job recovery. As of the second
quarter, the lower Hudson Valley had recovered 82.40 percent of all private-sector jobs lost, while the
upper Hudson Valley had recovered 81.50 percent. On average, the Hudson Valley continued to
outperform both the Long Island and Capital regions. Relative to the New York City region, the Hudson
Valley has recaptured more employment but fewer private-sector jobs. As of June 2012, the New York
City region had recaptured all jobs lost to the recession and had moved 38.00 percent above the interrecession peak.
As of the first quarter of 2012—most current numbers—the average weekly private-sector wage, valued in
current dollars, in Westchester County at $1,401 ranked second highest in the state; New York County
(Manhattan) ranked the highest at $2,764. Rockland County ($1,035) ranked fourth, Dutchess County
($946) ranked eighth, and Putnam County ($811) ranked 18th. Orange ($715), Ulster ($670), and Sullivan
($613) counties ranked 32th, 47th, and 56nd, respectively. Regionwide, the average weekly private-sector
wage advanced 5.04 percent year over year, from $1,059 in the first quarter of 2011 to $1,112 in the first
quarter of 2012. Statewide, the average weekly private-sector wage fell 1.83 percent, from $1,440 to $1,414.
Private-sector wages advanced in every county in the region with Ulster County posting the highest yearover-year increase at 6.93 percent, followed by Rockland and Sullivan counties at 6.54 percent and 5.11
percent, respectively. Public-sector wages also advanced with Sullivan County recording the largest yearover-year gain at 10.93 percent, followed by Putnam (8.93 percent) and Ulster (7.10 percent).
As of the first quarter of 2012, Westchester was the only county in the region wherein the AWW paid in
the private sector was higher than the AWW paid in the public sector: the ratio of private to public was
100.53—$1.031 paid in the private sector for every $1.00 paid in the public sector. Across the balance of the
region, the ratio of private to public ranged from a low of 62.03 in Sullivan County to a high of 93.03 in
Dutchess County. Regionwide, the ratio of private to public was 93.1.
Dependence on food stamp benefits continues to expand as more families in the Hudson Valley region
fall below the official poverty level1. As of the second quarter of 2012, one out of every 10.2 residents—
224,854 persons—in the Hudson Valley received food stamp benefits compared to one out of every 10.9
residents—210,918 persons—in the second quarter of 2011. As of the second quarter, Sullivan County was
the most dependent on food stamp benefits at one out of every 6.11 persons, followed by Rockland,
Orange, and Ulster counties at one out of every 7.28 persons, one out of every 8.35 persons, and one out of
every 8.78 persons, respectively. Putnam County was the least dependent at one out of every 41.80
persons, followed by Dutchess County at one out of every 12.49 persons and Westchester County at one
out of every 12.41 persons. In New York State, one out of every 6.32 persons received food stamp benefits
in the second quarter of 2012.
In contrast, the number of persons dependent on Temporary Assistance benefits posted a slight decrease,
falling from 34,043 in the second quarter of 2011 to 33,644 in the second quarter of the current year. Year
over year, the number of residents dependent on Temporary Assistance benefits fell from one out of every
67.7 persons to one out of every 68.5 persons. As of the second quarter, Sullivan County was the most
dependent on Temporary Assistance benefits at one out of every 32.47 persons, followed by Ulster and
Orange counties at one out of every 49.62 persons and one out of every 51.31 persons, respectively.
Putnam County was the least dependent at one out of every 675.22 persons, followed by Dutchess,
Rockland, and Westchester counties at one out of every 100.31 persons, one out of every 92.48 persons,
and one out of every 69.43 persons, respectively.
The market for single-family homes continues to improve albeit at an uneven pace. Year over year, the
number of single-family homes sold rose 14.48 percent while the median selling price continued to
decline. Overall, current housing values remain well below the peak valuations witnessed during the
housing boom, with 30 percent declines the norm.
For the first six months of 2012, the demand for both single and multifamily construction permits fell
relative to the first six months of 2011. It is important to note that local area permit data is highly
unreliable and is subject to revision.
1
U.S. Census: American Community Survey 2011.
Hudson Valley Labor Force
As of August, the region has recaptured 52.90 percent
of the labor force lost to the recession and slightly
less than 35.00 percent of the employment.
Employment
Year over year, labor force participation in the Hudson Valley region advanced nine tenth of one
percent (10,567) from 1,123,400 participants in the second quarter of 2011 to 1,134,000 in the second
quarter of 2012. In the upper Hudson Valley—Dutchess, Orange, Sullivan, and Ulster counties—labor
force participation advanced (3,800) from 441,200 to 445,000 while in the lower Hudson Valley—
Putnam, Rockland,
Employment and Labor Force Participation
and Westchester—
Data: New York State Department of Labor
labor force
participation
1,200,000
1,140,000
advanced (6,767)
1,180,000
1,120,000
from 682,200 to
1,160,000
1,100,000
688,967. Over the
1,140,000
1,080,000
same 12-month
1,120,000
1,060,000
period, labor force
1,100,000
1,040,000
participation in New
1,080,000
1,020,000
York State increased
1,060,000
1,000,000
(71,734) from
9,490,633 to
9,562,367 while
participation in the
Labor Force
Employment
national (civilian)
labor force posted a moderate year-over-year increase of 0.79 percent (1,216,667), rising from 153.63
million to 154.85 million.
Year over year, regional employment was little changed (2,633), rising from 1,045,367 jobs in the
second quarter of
Employment and Labor Force Participation
2011 to 1,048,000.
Data: New York State Department of Labor
30,000
Employment
20,000
increased in the
lower Hudson Valley
10,000
(2,433) from 638,067
0
to 640,500 while
-10,000
employment in the
Year-Over-Year
upper Hudson Valley -20,000
Change in
-30,000
Employment
increased (133) from
Year-Over-Year
-40,000
407,332 to 407,4671.
Change in the
Over the same 12Labor Force
-50,000
month period,
-60,000
employment in New
York State fell
(5,733) from
8,744,167 in the second quarter of 2011 to 8,738,434 in the second quarter of 2012. Nationwide,
employment advanced 1.61 percent (2.25 million) from 139.94 million to 142.19 million.
2012-07
2012-05
2012-03
2012-01
2011-11
2011-09
2011-07
2011-05
2011-03
2011-01
2010-11
2010-09
2010-07
2010-05
2010-03
2010-01
2009-11
2009-09
2009-07
2009-05
2009-03
2009-01
2008-11
2008-09
2008-07
2012-07
2012-05
2012-03
2012-01
2011-11
2011-09
2011-07
2011-05
2011-03
2011-01
2010-11
2010-09
2010-07
2010-05
2010-03
2010-01
2009-11
2009-09
2009-07
2009-05
2009-03
2009-01
2008-11
2008-09
2008-07
1
Numbers do not add up to total labor force and total employment due to rounding.
Page 1 of 11
Because the regional labor force increased at a faster rate than employment, the regional
unemployment rate posted a year-over-year increase of 0.66 percentage points, from 6.94 percent in the
second quarter of 2011 to 7.60 percent in the second quarter of 2012. The unemployment rate in the lower
Hudson Valley advanced 0.56 percentage points from 6.47 percent to 7.03 percent while in the upper
Hudson Valley the unemployment rate advanced 0.75 percentage points from 7.68 percent to 8.43
percent. Statewide, the unemployment rate increased from 7.87 percent to 8.60 percent; nationwide, the
unemployment rate fell from 9.03 percent to 8.17 percent.
The Hudson Valley labor market is rebuilding at a faster pace than nearby competitor
markets. During the first eight months of 2012, the regional labor force advanced 3.28 percent (36,600)
compared to 2.56 percent (13,900) in the Capital region, 1.84 percent (26,700) in the Long Island region,
and 0.61 percent (23,900) in the New York City region. Over the same period, regional employment
advanced 2.16 percent (22,500) while employment in the Capital, Long Island, and New York City
regions increased 1.83 percent (9,200), 0.75 percent (10,100), and negative 0.31 percent (11,100),
respectively. Statewide, the labor force increased 1.55 percent (146,700) and employment increased 0.70
percent (60,700).
Hudson Valley
Lower Hudson Valley
Change
in Labor
Force
Change in
Employment
Change
in UR
Change
in
Labor
Force
Dec 11-Jan 12
-3,000
-12,600
0.92%
-1300
-6700
Jan 12-Feb 12
1,800
1,100
0.03%
-1300
Feb 12-Mar 12
Periods
December 2011August 2012
Change in
Employment
Upper Hudson Valley
Change in
UR
Change
in
Labor
Force
Change in
Employment
Change
in UR
0.81%
-1700
-5900
0.99%
-1300
-0.88%
3100
2400
0.12%
-1,900
4000
-0.52%
-100
3300
-0.55%
-1800
700
-0.64%
Mar 12-April 12
5,300
6,800
-0.17%
4000
5000
0.35%
1300
1800
-0.16%
April 12-May 12
10,600
4,800
0.45%
7800
4200
0.62%
2800
600
0.53%
May 12-June 12
24,900
19,100
0.34%
16700
13200
-0.11%
8200
5900
0.43%
June 12-July 12
13,900
11,900
0.08%
11900
10400
-0.26%
2000
1500
0.09%
July 12-Aug 12
-15,000
-12,600
-0.10%
-11400
-10400
-0.18%
-3600
-2200
-0.29%
36,600
22,500
NM
26300
17700
NM
10300
4800
NM
3.28%
2.16%
3.89%
2.80%
2.34%
1.18%
YTD Change
YTD % Change
Regionwide, employment and labor force participation peaked in July of 2008—seven months
after the start of the Great
Recapture Rate
Recession—at 1,128,500
Labor Force
Employment
Region
and 1,189,500, respectively,
52.90%
34.73%
Hudson Valley Region
and reached post-recession
54.44%
37.62%
Lower
Hudson
Valley
Region
lows in February of 2011—
2
49.42%
30.08%
Upper
Hudson
Valley
Region
at 1,026,000 and 1,112,000.
(a)
22.80%
From peak to trough,
New York City Region
regional employment
42.06%
27.12%
Long Island Region
contracted 9.08 percent
35.11%
24.23%
Capital Region
(102,500) and the labor
force contracted
(a) The labor force in New York City continued to grow during the Great Recession.
Data Source: New York State Department of Labor; author calculations
6.52 percent
(77,500). As of August,
the region had recaptured
2
Revised numbers
Page 2 of 11
52.90 percent (41,000) of the labor force lost to the recession and slightly less than 35.00 percent (35,600)
of the employment. Regionwide, the lower Hudson Valley has recaptured 54.44 percent of its labor force
and 37.62 percent of employment while the upper Hudson Valley has recaptured 49.42 percent and 30.08
percent, respectively. Overall, the Hudson Valley is outperforming neighboring labor markets.
Nonfarm Employment by Place of Work3
Year over year, employers in the Hudson Valley added 9,700 jobs.
Public-sector employment fell 633.
Eighty-two percent of all private-sector jobs lost
in the recession have been recovered.
Over the 12-month period ending in the second quarter of 2012, the regional job count advanced
0.10 percent from 904,733 in the second quarter of 2011 to 913,800 in the second quarter of 2012; the
private-sector job count increased 1.30 percent from 736,133 to 745,833 while the job count in the public
sector fell 0.38 percent from 168,600 to 167,967. As of the second quarter, one out of every 5.44 jobs in the
Hudson Valley was in the public sector compared to one out of every 5.37 in the second quarter of 2011.
Year over year, the private-sector job count advanced in education and health (5,033), trade,
transportation, and utilities (3,567), professional and business services (2,567), leisure and hospitality
(1,933), and financial activities (1,100). Employment fell in natural resources, mining, and construction
(2,900) and continued to decline in manufacturing (1,400) and information (733). Public-sector
employment fell (633).
Within the Hudson Valley, the total job count advanced in the Rockland-Westchester-Putnam,
NY, MSA, the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY, MSA (Dutchess and Orange counties), and the
Kingston, NY, MSA (Ulster County) and fell slightly in Sullivan County.
In the Rockland-Westchester-Putnam, NY, MSA, the overall job count advanced (6,500) from
566,033 in the second quarter of 2011 to 572,533 in the second quarter of 2012. For the period, the privatesector job count advanced
(7,000), and the job count
Change in Hudson Valley Employment 2011.2 to 2012.2
in the public sector fell
Data: New York State Department of Labor CES series
(500). Job gains were
recorded in the health
-2900
Natural Resources, Mining and Construction
educational services sector
-1400
Manufacturing
(3,867), the leisure and
3567
Trade, Transportation and Utilities
hospitality sector (1,967),
-733
Information
1100
Financial Activities
the professional and
2567
Professional and Business Services
business services sector
5033
Education and Health Services
(1,966), the trade,
1933
Leisure and Hospitality
transportation, and
533
Other Services
utilities sector (1,400), and
-633
Government
the financial activities
9066
Total (Nonfarm)
sector (900). Over the
9700
Total Private
same period, the private-4300
Service-Providing
sector job count declined
Goods-Producing
13366
in the natural resources,
mining, and construction
sector (1,967), the manufacturing sector (700), and the information sector (633). The job count declined
(333) in the local government sector; however, local education added jobs (933). In the Poughkeepsie3
Current Employment Statistics (CES): survey of sample employers excludes self-employed, agricultural, domestic workers, and the military.
Place of Work Series. The employment figures in this section are three-month averages.
Page 3 of 11
Newburgh-Middletown, NY, MSA, (Dutchess and Orange counties), the overall job count gained
(767) to 252,400 in the second quarter of 2012 from 251,633 in the second quarter of 2011. For the period,
the private-sector job count rose (333) while the job count in the public sector also climbed (434). Job
gains were recorded in the trade, transportation, and utilities sector (1,167), the education and health
services sector (600), the professional and business services sector (500), and the financial activities
sector (100). The job count declined in the leisure and hospitality sector (667), the natural resources,
mining, and construction sector (767), the manufacturing sector (633), and the information sector (133).
In the Kingston, NY, MSA (Ulster County), the overall job count rose (1,867) to 63,167 in the second
quarter of 2012 from 61,300 in the second quarter of 2011. For the period, the private-sector job count
advanced (2,267). However, the public-sector job count retreated (400). Job gains were recorded in the
trade, transportation, and utilities sector (967), the leisure and hospitality sector (633), the education and
health services sector (467), the financial activities sector (100), the professional and business services
sector (67), and the information sector (33). The job count remained constant in the natural resources,
mining, and construction sector, but declined in the manufacturing sector (67). The job count fell in both
the local government and local government education sectors falling 400 and 300, respectively. In
Sullivan County the overall job count declined (67). Of this total, the public sector shed (167) jobs; the
private sector added (100) jobs.
The private-sector job count peaked in the third quarter of 2008 at 756,433 and reached a
post-recession low in the first quarter of 2010 at 697,233. As of the second quarter of
Change in the Job Count Since the Recession Low
Recession Jobs
Lost
Recovery Jobs
Gained
Share
Recovered
(17,733)
2,767
16.77%
Natural Resources, Mining, and Construction
(6,867) Share Recovered:
(2,367)Private Sector
-33.18%
Manufacturing
∗ New York
City 138.00 percent
(10,200)
11,033
85.97%
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
∗ Capital Region 77.50 percent
(2,100)
(1,267)
-54.29%
Information
∗ Long Island Region 75.70 percent
(5,267)
2,033
40.13%
Financial Activities
(10,200)
10,833
100.61%
Professional and Business Services
10,067
8,134
NM
Education and Health Services *
(13,867)
14,933
165.32%
Leisure and Hospitality
(1,967)
2,500
122.97%
Other Services
(59,200)
48,600
82.10%
Total Private
* No cyclical job loss
Data: New York State Department of Labor CES Series, author calculations.
2012, 82 percent (48,600) of all jobs lost due to the recession (59,200) had been recaptured. Several
sectors—the professional and business services sector, the leisure and hospitality sector, and other
services sector—have created more jobs since the trough than were lost as a result of the recession. In
contrast, the job count in both the information sector and the manufacturing sector continues to decline.
As of the second quarter, the job count in the information sector was down 3,367 relative to the peak and
1,267 relative to the trough; the job count in the manufacturing sector was down 9,233 relative to the
peak and 2,367 relative to the trough. Manufacturing as a share of total private-sector employment has
fallen from 7.43 percent in the third quarter of 2008—peak private-sector employment—to 6.30 percent
in the second quarter of 2012.
Page 4 of 11
First-Quarter 2012 Average Weekly Wages4
Private- and public-sector wages post
year-over-year increases.
Year over year, the Average Weekly Wage (AWW) in the private sector—valued in current
dollars—advanced in every county in the
Average Weekly Wages: First Quarter
Hudson Valley region, with Ulster County
Source: New York State Department of Labor: QCEW Series
posting the highest percentage increase at 6.93
percent, followed by Rockland and Sullivan
Private Government
Goods
Service
Dutchess County
counties at 6.54 percent and 5.11 percent,
$907
$942 $1,717
$695
2008
respectively. The smallest year- over-year
$888
$960 $1,712
$691
2009
increase occurred in Putnam County at 2.69
$871
$963 $1,714
$687
2010
percent. Within the goods-producing industries
$905
$970 $1,862
$706
2011
(manufacturing, construction, and mining), the
$946
$1,016 $1,920
$744
2012
Orange County
AWW increased throughout the upper Hudson
$660
$955
$832
$637
2008
Valley—Dutchess, Orange, Ulster, and Sullivan.
$662
$955
$825
$642
2009
Among these counties, Sullivan recorded the
$663
$998
$825
$645
2010
largest year-over-year increase at 9.74 percent,
$686
$1,001
$843
$670
2011
followed by Ulster (7.13 percent), Orange (5.33
$715
$1,065
$888
$696
2012
Putnam County
percent), and Dutchess (3.12 percent). Across
$763
$1,135
$955
$721
2008
the lower Hudson Valley—Westchester,
$770
$1,142 $1,011
$717
2009
Rockland, and Putnam— the AWW increased
$761
$1,150
$960
$720
2010
in Westchester County (11.06 percent) and fell
$790
$1,152 $1,009
$751
2011
$811
$1,255
$963
$783
in both Putnam (4.59 percent) and Rockland
2012
Rockland County
(.24 percent) counties. As is typically the case,
$915
$999 $1,360
$815
2008
the highest AWW paid in the goods-producing
$908
$1,029 $1,429
$797
2009
industries during the first quarter of 2012 was
$949
$1,046 $1,503
$842
2010
paid in Dutchess County at $1,920, followed by
$971
$1,083 $1,531
$871
2011
$1,035
$1,130 $1,527
$948
2012
Westchester County at $1,883.
Sullivan County
Within the private service-providing
$593
$875
$617
$592
2008
industries, the AWW advanced throughout the
$593
$885
$598
$595
2009
region. Rockland County recorded the largest
$583
$884
$570
$587
2010
year-over-year increase at 8.95 percent, followed
$583
$890
$571
$586
2011
$613
$987
$626
$614
2012
by Ulster (6.89 percent), Dutchess (5.30
Ulster County
percent), Sullivan (4.64 percent), Putnam (4.34
$593
$910
$816
$557
2008
percent), Westchester (4.25 percent), and
$589
$914
$785
$560
2009
Orange (3.95 percent). Within these industries,
$582
$966
$761
$557
2010
Westchester paid the highest first-quarter 2012
$599
$951
$776
$574
2011
$640
$1,018
$832
$614
2012
AWW ($1,351), followed by Rockland ($948).
Westchester County
The AWW in the public sector rose
$1,349
$1,165
$1,596
$1,316
2008
throughout the Hudson Valley region, with
$1,235
$1,250
$1,531
$1,197
2009
Sullivan County recording the largest year-over$1,317
$1,258
$1,607
$1,286
2010
year gain at 10.93 percent, followed by Putnam
$1,334
$1,330
$1,696
$1,296
2011
(8.93 percent) and Ulster (7.10 percent). As of
$1,401
$1,393
$1,883
$1,351
2012
the first quarter of 2012, Westchester was the
4
Average weekly wage data was secured through a special request to the New York State Department of Labor.
Page 5 of 11
only county in the region where the AWW in the private sector was higher than the AWW in the public
sector: the ratio of private to public was 100.53—$1.031 paid in the private sector for every $1.00 paid in the
public sector. Across the balance of the region, the ratio of private to public ranged from a low of 62.03 in
Sullivan County to a high of 93.03 in Dutchess County. Regionwide, the ratio of private to public was little
changed, falling from 93.5 in the first quarter of 2011 to 93.1 in the first quarter of 2012.Over the most recent
three-year period—beginning in the first quarter of 2010—the private-to-public ratio improved in
Dutchess and Rockland counties and fell in Orange, Putnam, Orange, Sullivan, Ulster, and Westchester.
Ratio of Private- to Public-Sector AWWs:
The lower the number, the higher the level of public-sector
wages to private-sector wages
2008
2009
2010
2011
Area
96.30
92.55
90.43
93.26
Dutchess County
69.12
69.31
66.40
68.50
Orange County
67.20
67.44
66.21
68.53
Putnam County
91.54
88.27
90.69
89.61
Rockland County
67.79
67.04
65.95
65.46
Sullivan County
65.17
64.40
60.21
62.99
Ulster County
115.77
98.81
104.66
100.31
Westchester County
Data: New York State Department of Labor: QCEW series, author calculations
2012
93.03
67.08
64.61
91.54
62.03
62.89
100.53
As of the first quarter of 2012—most current numbers—the average weekly private-sector wage,
valued in current dollars, in Westchester County at $1,401 ranked second highest in the state; New York
County (Manhattan) ranked the highest at $2,764. Rockland County ($1,035) ranked fourth, Dutchess
County ($946) ranked eighth, and Putnam County ($811) ranked 18th. Orange ($715), Ulster ($640), and
Sullivan ($613) counties ranked 32th, 47th, and 56nd, respectively. Regionwide, the average weekly privatesector wage advanced 5.04 percent year over year, from $1,059 in the first quarter of 2011 to $1,112 in the
first quarter of 2012. Statewide, the average weekly private-sector wage fell 1.83 percent, from $1,440 to
$1,414.
Page 6 of 11
Monthly Income Maintenance Benefits
(Social Assistance)
Dependence on Social Assistance
Continues to Expand
Quarter‐Over‐Quarter Change
Number of Monthly Recipients
Quarter over quarter, the number of Hudson Valley residents who received monthly food stamp
benefits advanced 1.04 percent (2,313), from 222,541 in the first quarter of 2012 to 224,854 in the second
quarter of 2012. Every
county in the region
Change in the Average Number of Monthly
Food Stamp Recipients: Quarterly Data
experienced an increase in
250,000
12000
the number of food stamp
recipients, with Dutchess
10000
County experiencing the
200,000
largest-level increase at 655;
8000
followed by Rockland (614),
150,000
6000
Westchester (451), Ulster
(258), Orange (142),
4000
100,000
Sullivan (121), and Putnam
(72). The largest percentage
2000
increase occurred in Putnam
50,000
County at 3.10 percent,
0
followed by Dutchess
0
‐2000
County at 2.82 percent. In
New York State, the number
of food stamp recipients
posted a .45 percent (7,262)
quarter-over-quarter increase.
Food stamp expenditures increased 0.47 percent from $31.47 million per month in the first
quarter of 2012 to $31.62 million per month in the second quarter while the average monthly benefit
decreased from $141.43 per recipient to $140.62 per recipient. As of the second quarter, one out of every
10.24 persons residing in the Hudson Valley were receiving food stamp benefits compared to one out of
every 10.92 persons one year earlier. Sullivan County was the most dependent on food stamp benefits at
one out of every 6.11 persons, followed by Rockland, Orange, and
Ulster counties at one out of every 7.28 persons, one out of every
8.35 persons, and one out of every 8.78 persons, respectively.
As of the second quarter of
Putnam County was the least dependent at one out of every 41.80
2012:
one out of every 10.24
persons, followed by Dutchess County at one out of every 12.49
persons and Westchester County at one out of every 12.41 persons.
persons in the Hudson
In New York State, one out of every 6.32 persons received food
Valley received food stamp
stamp benefits in the second quarter of 2012.
benefits; one out of every
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
Across the Hudson Valley, the number of residents
who received monthly Temporary Assistance (TA) benefits—
which includes Family Assistance (FA)5 and Safety Net
Assistance (SNA)6 —decreased from 33,896 in the first
quarter of 2012 to 33,644 in the second quarter of 2012. Within
68.46 received temporary
assistance benefits 5
As of December 1996, Family Assistance is limited to 60 months per lifetime. To be eligible for Family Assistance, the household must include
(care for) a minor child.
6
Safety Net Assistance has a lifetime limit of two years.
Page 7 of 11
the region, the number of TA recipients increased in Dutchess (164), Sullivan (80), Orange (20), and
Putnam (7) and decreased in Westchester (488), Rockland (27), and Ulster (7). The largest percentage
change occurred in Dutchess County with a growth of 5.83 percent followed by Putnam at 4.72 percent
and Sullivan at 3.50 percent. Over the same three-month period, total TA expenditures decreased at 4.72
percent from the $14.47 million per month in the first quarter to $13.79 million per month in the second.
The average monthly per-person SNA and FA benefits were $475.98 and $354.21, respectively, down from
$490.47 and down from $374.45 in the first quarter. Within the region, Sullivan County is the most
dependent on monthly TA benefits at one out of every 32.47 persons, followed by Ulster and Orange
counties at one out of every 49.62 persons and one out of every 51.31 persons, respectively. Putnam
County is the least dependent at one out of every 675.22 persons, followed by Dutchess, Rockland, and
Westchester counties at one out of every 100.31 persons, one out of every 92.48 persons, and one out of
every 69.43 persons, respectively. Year over year, TA recipients decreased 1.17 percent from 34,043
persons per month in the second quarter of 2011 to 33,644 persons in the second quarter of 2012. Over the
same one-year period, the monthly expenditure for TA decreased 10.92 percent from $15.48 million per
month to $13.79 million per month.
Food Stamp Dependence: The Lower the
Number, the Higher the
Dependence
Temp. Assistance Dependence: The
Lower the Number, the Higher the
Dependence
Data: New York State RTDA, Author Calculations
Data New York State RSDA, Author Calculations
Dutchess County
Orange County
12.49
12.84
13.11
13.11
13.17
8.35
8.37
8.29
8.47
8.71
Rockland County
7.28
7.38
7.56
7.83
8.05
Sullivan County
6.11
6.17
6.60
6.83
6.84
Westchester County
Hudson Valley Region
New York State
Orange County
41.80
43.09
46.22
47.71
48.31
Putnam County
Ulster County
Dutchess County
8.78
8.89
9.01
9.06
9.13
12.41
12.48
12.53
12.69
13.13
10.24
10.35
10.47
10.66
10.92
6.32
6.35
6.36
6.39
6.44
2012.Q2
675.2
707.1
679.8
613.1
571.0
92.5
91.7
91.1
92.5
95.3
2012.Q2
Sullivan County
32.5
33.6
35.5
38.5
36.0
2012.Q1
Ulster County
49.6
49.5
49.4
51.1
50.8
2011.Q3
Westchester County
69.4
67.1
66.3
66.4
65.0
Hudson Valley Region
68.5
67.9
67.6
67.8
67.7
2011.Q4
2011.Q3
51.3
51.5
51.8
50.5
52.2
Putnam County
Rockland County
2012.Q1
100.3
106.2
101.1
97.9
101.0
2011.Q2
New York State
2011.Q4
2011.Q2
34.1
34.2
34.3
34.6
34.2
Page 8 of 11
Home Sales, Prices, and Building Permits
Home prices continue to decline despite
a year-over-year sales volume uptick.
Home values continue to decline albeit at a somewhat slower pace than witnessed in previous
periods. Year over year, Putnam County experienced the largest decline, falling 6.41, followed by
Sullivan and Dutchess counties at 4.17 percent and 2.93 percent, respectively. Housing values posted a
year-over-year decline of 2.08 percent in Rockland County, 1.80 percent in Orange County, and .60
percent in Westchester County. Ulster County, by contrast, witnessed a year-over-year increase of 7.67
percent. Overall, current
Percent Change in the Median Selling Price
housing values remain
of a Single-Family Home Relative to Peak:
well below the peak
Data Source: NYSAR; author calculations
valuations witnessed
Peak
Peak
2nd Qt
%
County
during the housing
Date
Median Price
Median Price
Change
Dutchess
2006.Q3
$360,000
$240,000
-33.33%
boom. Sales volume has
2007.Q3
$330,000
$242,300
-26.58%
begun to improve, rising Orange
Putnam
2006.Q2
$435,777
$299,500
-31.27%
14.48 percent from 2,617
Rockland
2005.Q3
$529,950
$377,000
-28.86%
units sold in the second
Sullivan
2007.Q2
$187,500
$115,000
-38.63%
quarter of 2011 to 2,996
Ulster
2007.Q3
$265,000
$203,500
-23.21%
units sold in the second
Westchester
2007.Q3
$730,000
$619,000
-15.21%
quarter of 2012. Ulster
County recorded the largest increase in sales activity at 34.42 percent (95 units) followed by Putnam
County at 31.15 percent (38 units), Westchester County at 16.73 percent (165 units), Rockland County
at 11.45 percent (30 units), Dutchess County at 8.78 percent (39 units), and Orange County at 4.79
percent (18
Year-over-Year Change in the Median Selling Price
units). The
of a Single-Family Home:
only county
Data Source: NYSAR; author calculations
in the
Second
Dutchess Orange
Putnam Rockland Sullivan
Ulster
Westchester
region to
Quarter
experience
$0 -$11,150 -$35,777 -$10,000 $26,410 $16,250
-$2,000
2007
a decrease
-$31,726 -$18,750
$0 -$50,000 -$48,500
-$6,250
-$25,050
2008
in sales
-$48,324
-$30,000
-$75,550
-$35,000
-$1,000
-$46,000
-$109,950
2009
volume was
-$2,258 -$20,000 -$17,700
-$5,000
-$4,000
$375
$40,500
2010
Sullivan
-$20,442
-$3,250 $13,250 -$30,000 -$14,000 -$20,375
$17,250
2011
County at
3.97 percent 2012
-$7,250
-$4,450 -$20,500
-$8,000
-$5,000 $14,500
-$3,750
(a loss of six
units).
Statewide, the median selling price of an existing single-family home was little changed, falling
from $210,000 in the second quarter of 2011 to $209,000 in the second quarter of 2012. Over the same
period, sales volume jumped 6.70 percent (1,471 units) from 21,950 in the second quarter of 2011 to
23,421 in the second quarter of the current year.
Continued uncertainty in the market for single-family homes in concert with tight credit and
prolonged weak economic growth continues to place pressure on the demand for new housing. For the
first six months of 2012, the demand for single-family construction permits fell 2.89 percent, from 589
construction permits with an average cost of $442,924 per permit during the first six months of 2011 to
572 construction permits with an average cost of $267,748 per permit during the first six months of
2012. Total construction costs in the first half of the year fell $107.73 million from $260.88 million in 2011
to $153.15 million in 2012.
Page 9 of 11
For the period, Orange County issued the largest number of single-family permits at 142,
followed by Westchester and
Year Over Year, Single-Family Housing Permits:
Dutchess counties at 90 and 51,
U.S. Census Bureau: *Preliminary Numbers
respectively. Putnam County
January-June 2012*
January-June 2011
issued the least at 20. The largest
Permits Construction Costs Permits Construction Costs
Area
year-over-year declines in the
51
$15,621,040
69
$24,609,135
Dutchess
period occurred in Rockland and
142
$27,413,732
127
$24,029,648
Orange
20
$5,396,885
22
$7,266,759
Putnam
Dutchess counties at 27 and 18,
29
$10,171,266
56
$11,729,119
Rockland
respectively.
49
$9,094,883
39
$5,015,693
Sullivan
Similarly, the demand for
42
$6,952,333
28
$5,385,752
Ulster
multifamily permits posted a year90
$40,102,399
88
$93,893,880
Westchester
over-year decrease from 69
572
$153,151,861
589
$260,881,996
Hudson Valley
multifamily permits with 827 units during the first six months of 2011 to 48 multifamily permits with
377 units during the first six months of 2012. Year over year, the total budgeted construction cost in the
first quarter dropped 42.00 percent ($31.37 million) from $74.68 million in 2011 to $43.31 million in 2012.
However, the average cost per unit increased 27.22 percent ($24,585) from $90,307 per unit in 2011 to
$114,892 in 2012.
Multifamily Construction Permits
January—March 2012
Source: U.S. Census Bureau: Preliminary Numbers
County
Town/Village
Number of
Buildings
Number of
Units
Value of
Construction
Permit
Average
Construction Cost
per Unit
Dutchess/Orange
Kiryas Joel Village
Montgomery Village
New Windsor Town
10
6
3
19
106
39
49
194
$11,826,938
$1,990,622
$4,974,176
$18,791,736
$111,575
$51,042
$101,514
$96,865
Ramapo Town
Spring Valley Village
14
3
17
63
6
69
$6,305,966
$920,000
$7,225,966
$100,095
$153,333
$104,724
Fallsburg Town
2
2
4
4
$162,666
$162,666
$40,667
$40,667
Plattekill Town
Shawangunk Town
1
1
2
2
2
4
$85,000
$250,000
$335,000
$42,500
$125,000
$83,750
Eastchester Town
New Rochelle
Port Chester Village
Somers Town
White Plains
Yonkers
1
3
1
1
1
1
8
10
82
2
8
2
2
106
$1,500,000
$13,462,687
$200,000
$986,301
$400,000
$250,000
$16,798,988
$150,000
$164,179
$100,000
$123,288
$200,000
$125,000
$158,481
Total
Rockland
Total
Sullivan
Total
Ulster
Total
Westchester
Total
Page 10 of 11
Sales-Tax Collection
An important indicator of retail sales activity and state and county revenue is sales-tax
collection. Year over year, total sales-tax collection increased 2.99 percent, from $297.98 million in the
second quarter of 2011 to $306.88 million in the second quarter of 2012. The largest year-over-year dollar
increase occurred in Orange County at $4.75 million (7.98 percent), followed by Dutchess and Ulster
counties at $1.88 million (4.85 percent) and $1.49 million (6.30 percent), respectively. Rockland County
experienced a year-over-year decline of $342,360 (.81 percent).
Quarterly Sales-Tax Collection
Data Source: New York State Department of Taxation and Finance
Office of Tax Policy Analysis
2012.Q2
2011.Q2
2010.Q2
2009.Q2
2008.Q2
2007.Q2
Dutchess
$40,623,907
$38,743,503
$39,477,391
$33,956,512
$37,500,353
$39,693,041
Orange
$64,288,432
$59,535,635
$56,406,398
$53,551,603
$56,724,326
$55,573,197
Putnam
$12,837,016
$12,333,367
$11,855,949
$11,371,196
$13,156,845
$11,668,367
Rockland
$41,963,389
$42,305,749
$41,468,450
$41,378,574
$39,917,549
$42,906,630
$8,318,381
$7,919,677
$8,487,915
$8,918,534
$8,895,137
$8,690,847
$25,213,590
$23,720,083
$24,201,456
$22,174,842
$24,421,036
$22,237,210
Westchester
$113,637,011
$113,418,445
$112,996,212
$101,254,065
$116,957,617
$117,604,383
Hudson Valley
$306,881,724
$297,976,459
$294,893,771
$272,605,326
$297,572,863
$298,373,675
Sullivan
Ulster
$10,000,000
9.00%
8.00%
7.98%
$8,000,000
7.00%
6.30%
$6,000,000
6.00%
5.03%
4.85%
5.00%
4.08%
4.00%
$4,000,000
2.99%3.00%
2.00%
$2,000,000
1.00%
0.19%
$0
Dutchess
Orange
Putnam
Rockland
-0.81%
Sullivan
Ulster
Westchester
0.00%
Hudson
Valley
-$2,000,000
-1.00%
-2.00%
Year- over- year change in dollars collected
Year- over- year percentage change
Page 11 of 11