Indicators for the Scheldt estuary
Population pressure
Population in the municipalities along the Scheldt estuary has increased since 1990 by 5.4% to nearly 2 million
(2008). Both the Flemish and Dutch Scheldt municipalities have lost agricultural land to the benefit of other land
use such as (semi) built-up and traffic. 14% of the total
area of the Scheldt municipalities was built-up in 2009, an
increase of 1.7% from 1996 -1997. The average income of
a resident in both the Flemish and Dutch Scheldt municipalities in 2007 was lower than the average income of a
resident in the Flemish Region and the Netherlands respectively.
Why monitor this indicator?
The target of the 2030 Long-term Vision for the Scheldt estuary [1] envisages a sustainable use of the
estuarine system for human needs. Trends in population numbers and densities, land use changes and
social developments may reflect the pressure of the population on the surrounding ecosystem: the
need for land, housing, employment, recreation possibilities, ... The demographic and social developments and needs are relevant data in the formulation of policies for the region of the Scheldt estuary. A
comparison of these developments in relation to the changes in the Flemish Region and the Netherlands provides additional information about the significance of the observed trends.
The European Commission is working on a new Thematic Strategy and Directive for soil protection and
sustainable use of soil [2]. The soil is, from an ecological point of view, under increasing pressure
(erosion, contamination, sealing, ...) due to human activities such as agriculture and forestry, industry,
tourism and urbanization. Protecting the soil is, among other things, important for the achievement of
national and European objectives on water quality, human health, climate change, the protection of
nature and biodiversity, food security and a sustainable development of Europe in general. The proposed Directive focuses in particular on land use that significantly hampers normal soil functions (e.g. 'the
permanent covering of the soil surface with an impermeable material’) The Dutch and Flemish soil policies [3] also focus on a sustainable use and management of the soil by which it meets the needs of the
current generations without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.
Poverty and social exclusion are also on the agenda of the European, Dutch and Flemish strategies for
sustainable development [4]. In the context of sustainable development of the Scheldt estuary, attention must be given to this issue.
The ‘prosperity index’ examines to what extent the relative prosperity in the Scheldt municipalities
(based on the average income per inhabitant) differs from the prosperity in the Netherlands and the
Flemish Region. In addition, the employment and growth of key economic sectors in the Scheldt estuary
such as the ports (see indicator 'socio-economic importance of ports’ [5]) translate the local economy to
prosperity of local people.
May 2010
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Indicators for the Scheldt estuary
What does the indicator show?
Numbers and density of the population in the Scheldt estuary
The Flemish population data are based on the National Register of natural persons. In this register, data
are gathered from the municipal population registers of all citizens that stay in the country. The Dutch
population data are based on the Municipal Administration (GBA). The GBA basically includes anyone
who lives in a Dutch municipality on indefinite basis..
1.700
266
1.680
264
1.660
262
1.640
260
1.620
258
1.600
256
1.580
Dutch Scheldt municipalities
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
254
Number of inhabitants in Flemish
Scheldt municipalities (x 1000)
268
1988
Number of inhabitants in Dutch
Scheldt municipalities (x 1000)
Population in the municipalities along the Scheldt estuary has increased since 1990 by 5.4% to nearly 2
million (2008). The population of the 51 Flemish Scheldt municipalities has increased since 1990 by 5.7%
or slightly less than 91,000 inhabitants. Also in the 9 Dutch Scheldt municipalities, the population has
increased in the period 1988 - 2008 by 3.7% or more than 9,300 inhabitants (see Figure 1). Figure 4
shows the boundaries of the Flemish and Dutch Scheldt municipalities (see also technical fact sheet of
this measurement [6]).
Flemish Scheldt municipalities
Figure 1: Evolution of the population in Dutch (left) and Flemish (right) Scheldt municipalities. Source:
Statistics Netherlands (CBS), Directorate-general Statistics and Economic information (ADSEI).
In the period 1988 - 2008, the number of inhabitants in the Dutch Scheldt municipalities has increased
relatively less than the population in the Netherlands. As a consequence, the percentage of inhabitants
living in the Dutch Scheldt municipalities relative to the total number of inhabitants in the Netherlands
decreased (see Figure 2). Less than 2% of the inhabitants of the Netherlands live in a municipality along
the Scheldt. For the Flemish Region this is 27.3% (2008). Since 2001, this share is rising again.
May 2010
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Indicators for the Scheldt estuary
27,8
1,74
27,6
1,72
1,7
27,4
1,68
1,66
27,2
1,64
1,62
27
1,6
1,58
26,8
1,56
26,6
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1,54
Percentage Flemish inhabitants that
lives in Scheldt municipalities
Percentage Dutch inhabitants that
lives in Scheldt municipalities
1,76
Dutch Scheldt municipalities
Flemish Scheldt municipalities
Figure 2: Evolution of the population in Dutch and Flemish Scheldt municipalities as a percentage of
the total number of inhabitants in the Netherlands (left) or the Flemish Region (right) respectively. Source: Statistics Netherlands (CBS), Directorate-general Statistics and Economic information (ADSEI).
Population density in the Scheldt municipalities also has increased, as in the entire Flemish Region and
the Netherlands (see Figure 3). The Dutch Scheldt municipalities have, with 222 inhabitants per km² in
2008, a lower population density than the Flemish Scheldt municipalities with 772 inhabitants per km ²
in 2008. The population density in the Flemish Scheldt municipalities is even higher than in the Flemish
Region (456 inhabitants per km ² in 2008). The population density in the Netherlands is about twice as
large as in the Dutch Scheldt municipalities (486 inhabitants per km ² in 2008).
Middelburg and Vlissingen are the most densily populated municipalities along the Westerschelde
(respectively 975 and 1,312 inhabitants per km² in 2008, see Figure 4). Antwerpen, Gent, Niel, Boom and
Hemiksem have the highest population density on the Flemish side of the estuary (more than 1,500 inhabitants per km ² in 2008).
May 2010
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Indicators for the Scheldt estuary
800
Number of inhabitatns per km²
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Dutch Scheldt municipalities
the Netherlands
Flemish Scheldt municipalities
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
0
Flemish Region
Figure 3: Number of inhabitants per square kilometer in the Flemish/Dutch Scheldt municipalities compared tot the number of inhabitants per square kilometer in the Flemish Region/Netherlands. Source:
Statistics Netherlands (CBS), Directorate-general Statistics and Economic information (ADSEI).
Figure 4: Population density or number of inhabitants per square kilometer in the Flemish/Dutch
Scheldt municipalities. Situation 2008. Source: Statistics Netherlands (CBS), Directorate-general Statistics
and Economic information (ADSEI).
May 2010
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Indicators for the Scheldt estuary
Area of built-up land and other land use in the Scheldt estuary
Flanders and the Netherlands use different categories and nomenclature for the classification of land
use in their land use databases (see also technical fact sheet of this measurement, [7]). As a result, data
on land use in the Scheldt estuary are split into Flanders and the Netherlands. However, a number of
similar land use classes are defined in the context of this measurement in order to allow for a rough
comparison. Respectively 11.5% and 7% of the total area of the Flemish Scheldt municipalities and the
Flemish Region classified as "unknown" in 2009. This may affect the trends shown.
Area of built-up land in Dutch and Flemish Scheldt municipalities
70
14,5
60
14
50
13,5
40
13
30
20
10
0
Percentage
Area (x 1000 ha)
The area of built-up land in the Flemish and Dutch Scheldt municipalities has increased from 51,254 ha
in 1996 - 1997 to 58,184 ha in 2009 (see Figure 5). Most of this area is on Flemish territory. In 2009 14% of
the total area of the Scheldt municipalities is built-up. In 1996 - 1997 this was 12.4%.
Dutch Scheldt municipalities
Flemish Scheldt municipalities
12,5
12
Percentage of total area
11,5
Figure 5: Area of built-up land in the Dutch and Flemish Scheldt municipalities (left) and percentage of
built-up land relative to the total area of the Dutch and Flemish Scheldt municipalities together (right).
For years with an asterisk there are no data available for the Dutch Scheldt municipalities and the data
from the nearest preceding year were used. For the period 1996 - 1997, data of the Dutch Scheldt municipalities are from 1996 and data of the Flemish Scheldt municipalities are from 1997. Source: Statistics
Netherlands (CBS), Directorate-general Statistics and Economic information (ADSEI), Aministration of
land registry (Administratie van het kadaster).
Land use in Dutch Scheldt municipalities
Besides the fact that water takes up a high proportion of land use (> 35%) in the Dutch Scheldt municipalities, 49.1% of the land use consisted of agriculture in 2006 (see Figure 6). That agriculture has lost an
area of slightly less than 3,000 ha (- 1.5%) in the period 1996 - 2006, while all other land use classes have
(slightly) gained area. The strongest riser was the category 'forest and open natural area’ (+ 0.5% or 942
ha), followed closely by ‘built-up land' (+0.4% or 865 ha, see above). In the Netherlands the loss of agricultural land at the expense of other categories of land use was even bigger in the same period (-1.8%).
The Dutch Scheldt municipalities contain relatively less space for agriculture, recreation, traffic, construction and especially forest and open nature, compared to the Netherlands as a whole, because of
the large presence of ‘inland’ water.
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Indicators for the Scheldt estuary
100%
772.568
90%
80%
73.619
774.472
73.794
478.396
777.178
73.816
483.463
781.443
73.916
484.090
484.024
70%
6.823
60%
6.974
Water
7.583
Forest and open
natural area
Farmland
7.765
Recreational area
50%
98.472
99.592
2.285.799
2.304.074
2.326.047
2.360.382
40%
30%
Semi-built-up land
and transport
infrastructure
20%
10%
0%
Built-up land
96.711
97.594
164.883
2003
NL
2006
S
2006
NL
161.612
2000
NL
2003
S
150.283
1996
NL
2000
S
1996
S
337.927
328.867
318.330
304.823
2.432
8.098
7.899
2.364
7.872
7.576
2.250
7.523
7.806
96.311
93.702
88.877
86.166
2.143
7.233
7.236
168.804
Figure 6: Area of land use as a percentage of the total area in the Dutch Scheldt municipalities (S) and
the Netherlands as a whole (NL) (1996-2006), by land use class. The figures in the bars indicate the absolute area (ha). Source: Statistics Netherlands (CBS).
Land use in Flemish Scheldt municipalities
In the Flemish Scheldt municipalities 5,910 ha (2.7%) farmland was lost in the period 1997 to 2009. In
addition, about 2,100 hectares or 1% (semi-)natural area and 650 ha or 0.3% recreational area disappeared. Especially the area of built-up land increased in the Flemish Scheldt municipalities (+ 2.8% or 6,065
ha, see above) and also the area for traffic and semi-built-up land experienced an increase (+ 1,457 ha or
0.7%). The downward or upward trend in the relative percentages of different land use classes in the
Flemish Scheldt municipalities are quite in line with that of the entire Flemish Region. The territory of
Flemish Scheldt municipalities is relatively less occupied by farmland (12.1% less) but more with (semi-)
built-up land and transport infrastructure (6.9% increase) (see Figure 7).
May 2010
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Indicators for the Scheldt estuary
100%
24.081
90%
80%
2.148
92.117
8.205
24.558
156.542
2.162
93.212
8.330
24.680
155.262
2.161
93.886
8.774
24.951
154.350
2.167 153.605
2.174 152.968
94.665
8.781
25.077
95.056
8.765
26.521
25.904
25.504
25.114
24.425
106.625 818.192
104.506 808.380
103.315 800.563
102.084 793.368
100.714 786.101
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10.780 43.645
11.511 44.199
Built‐up
Recreation
Agriculture
2006 ‐ FL
1997 ‐ S
Semi‐built‐up and transport
Semi‐natural
Water
2009 ‐ FL
10.642 42.796
2009 ‐ S
10.288 41.914
2006 ‐ S
10.054 42.046
2003 ‐ FL
243.767
2003 ‐ S
236.174
2000 ‐ FL
229.136
2000 ‐ S
221.598
1997 ‐ FL
210.915
10%
0%
50.086
48.792
47.440
46.179
44.021
21.722
22.340
23.072
23.883
24.563
4.779
4.917
5.078
5.245
5.429
Unknown
Figure 7: Area of land use as a percentage of the total area in the Flemish Scheldt municipalities (S) and
the Flemish Region as a whole (FL) (1997-2009), by land use class. The figures in the bars indicate the
absolute area (ha). Source: Directorate-general Statistics and Economic information (ADSEI), Aministration of land registry (Administratie van het kadaster).
Prosperity index in the municipalities along the Scheldt estuary
The prosperity index is defined here as the comparison of the average income per inhabitant of the Flemish and Dutch Scheldt municipalities with the average income per inhabitant of the Flemish Region or
the Netherlands, respectively (= 100).
The Flemish income data are based on the declarations of personal income taxes. The Dutch income
data are based on estimates from the Regional Income Survey (RIO). The definitions of ‘income’ differ
between Flanders and the Netherlands. Flanders uses the net taxable income that consists of all net income minus tax-deductible expenses. These income data do not reflect the real disposable income because not everyone pays taxes or declares his real income to the tax authorities. The Dutch income data
are based on an estimate of the true (but unknown) disposable incomes. For more information, consult
the technical fact sheet of this measurement [8]. The prosperity index provides a relative value, which
makes comparison between the figures of the Netherlands and Flanders possible.
May 2010
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Indicators for the Scheldt estuary
The prosperity index in the Flemish municipalities along the Scheldt estuary has decreased by just over
2% since the beginning of the availability in 1994. Since 2004 the average income of a resident in the
Flemish Scheldt municipalities is lower than the average income of a resident in the Flemish Region. The
average income per person in the Dutch Scheldt municipalities was 0.5 to 4% lower than the national
average in the period 2003 - 2007 (see Figure 8).
102
101
Prosperity index
100
99
98
97
96
95
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Dutch Scheldt municipalities
Flemish Scheldt municipalities
Figure 8: Annual prosperity index of the Flemish and Dutch Scheldt municipalities. The prosperity index
is the average income per person in the Flemish and Dutch Scheldt municipalities compared to the average income per person in the Flemish Region or the Netherlands respectively. The latter are taken as
value 100 in the prosperity index (red line in the graph). Source: Statistics Netherlands (CBS), Directorategeneral Statistics and Economic information (ADSEI).
Where do the data come from?

Data on population, area of the municipalities and average income per resident in Flanders and
the Netherlands are owned by the Directorate-general Statistics and Economic information
(ADSEI) and Statistics Netherlands (CBS) respectively.

Data concerning land use belong to the CBS, the ADSEI and the Aministration of land registry
(Administratie van het kadaster).
Opportunities and threats
Population pressure and land use along the Scheldt estuary are closely linked. Economic development,
the need for transport infrastructure and housing, define the intensity and patterns of urbanization. The
use of open space for construction and transport is mainly at the expense of farmland and to a lesser
extent of (semi)natural areas like forests.
May 2010
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Indicators for the Scheldt estuary
An increase in the area of built-up land in the Scheldt municipalities has an important influence on the
Scheldt ecosystem as a result of soil sealing. Changes in the area of built-up land can, besides e.g. canalization and other water management infrastructure, have an impact on the fresh water discharge in the
Scheldt estuary and influence the salinity (variations) and the height of water levels (see indicator
'morphology and dynamics in the estuary’). Futhermore, intensive forms of land use also entail additional environmental pressure (noise, odor, pollution) (see also indicator ‘loads of pollutant substances’).
Road networks and transport infrastructure are the link between cities and the veins of economy. Nevertheless, they also contribute to the fragmentation of open space and natural areas (see indicator
'protection and development of natural areas') affecting the quality of the existing habitats and species
(see indicator 'status of species and habitats') .
The 'Spatial Structure Plan Flanders' [9] and the Dutch 'Note on Spatial use’ (Nota Ruimte) [10] pay attention to the spatial contribution to a strong economy and viability of cities where the safeguarding and
development of natural, scenic and cultural values is guaranteed. The creation of ‘opportunities for
nature’ through measures such as a thorough treatment of the wastewater and environmentally friendly
agriculture can continue to ensure the quality and use of natural resources in the future (see e.g. indicator 'quality of surface waters’).
Sustainable development also requires efforts to eliminate or reduce the arrears and contradictions in
social development within a community and between communities. The prosperity index gives an idea
about the relative socio-economic status of the population in the Scheldt estuary, compared to the
Netherlands and the Flemish Region. Like most indicators of wellfare, this index provides only a limited
view of reality.
The specifications of the measurements in this indicator further describe definitions, data and methodology, and their limitations. The fact sheets are available at: http://www.scheldemonitor.be/
indicatorfiche.php?id=1
Integration with other indicators/measurements?
Population numbers and densities together with the land use are some of the determining factors of
flood risks along the Scheldt estuary. The population size is an important factor in the estimation of
number of victims during a flood. To estimate the economic damage, land use is an important issue (see
indicator 'safety against flooding’).
The pressure from the population and other users also entails environmental burden (see indicator
'loads of pollutant substances’).
The prosperity index or the average income of inhabitants in the Scheldt municipalities depends on many factors: employment rate and economic growth of important sectors for the Scheldt estuary (see also
indicators 'socio-economic importance of ports', ‘socio-economic importance of residential tourism’),
level of social supporting subsidies, changes in housing markets, ...
How to cite this fact sheet?
Anon. (2010). Population pressure. Indicators for the Scheldt estuary. Commissioned by the Maritime
Access Division, project group EcoWaMorSe, Flemish-Dutch Scheldt Commission. VLIZ Information
Sheets, 229. Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ): Oostende. 10 pp.
Online available at http://www.scheldemonitor.be/indicatoren.php
May 2010
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Indicators for the Scheldt estuary
References
[1] Directie Zeeland; Administratie Waterwegen en Zeewezen (2001). Langetermijnvisie Scheldeestuarium. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat. Directoraat-Generaal Rijkswaterstaat. Directie Zeeland/
Ministerie van de Vlaamse Gemeenschap. Departement Leefmilieu en Infrastructuur. Administratie Waterwegen en Zeewezen: Middelburg, The Netherlands. 86 pp. + toelichting 98 pp., details
[2]
European Soil Thematic Strategy:
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/soil/three_en.htm
Proposal for a Directive of the European parliament and of the council establishing a framework for the
protection of soil and amending Directive 2004/35/EC:
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2006:0232:FIN:EN:PDF
[3]
Dutch soil policy:
http://www.vrom.nl/pagina.html?id=9735
Flemish soil decree (decreet van 27 oktober 2006 betreffende de bodemsanering en de bodembescherming):
http://www.ovam.be/jahia/Jahia/pid/1858?lang=null
[4]
European, Dutch and Flemish strategies for sustainable development:
http://ec.europa.eu/sustainable/welcome/index_en.htm
http://do.vlaanderen.be/
http://www.vrom.nl/pagina.html?id=10748
[5]
Indicator ‘Socio-economic importance of the ports’:
http://www.scheldemonitor.org/indicatorfiche.php?id=2
[6]
http://www.scheldemonitor.org/indicatoren/pdf/SIF_Bevolking.pdf
[7]
http://www.scheldemonitor.org/indicatoren/pdf/SIF_Bodemgebruik.pdf
[8]
http://www.scheldemonitor.org/indicatoren/pdf/SIF_Welvaartsindex.pdf
[9]
Spatial planning in Flanders:
http://www2.vlaanderen.be/ruimtelijk/index.html
http://rsv.vlaanderen.be/web/nl/
[10]
Spatial planning in the Netherlands:
http://www.vrom.nl/pagina.html?id=3410
May 2010
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