THE CONTROL OF L.O)CAL CCNFLICT
CONFIGURATION ANA T YSIS CODEBOOK
September 1.960
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The
Cuntrol of Lcal1 CLflict
Codebook
Contents
.
Coding Instructions .....................................
Identification of Phases in the Conflict ..............................
I
1.
Cover Sheet Data on the Conflict in General
and the Relationship Between Antagonists........;..................
2
2.
Demographic Data for Antagonist
3.
Economic and Transportation Dati for Antagonist ....................... 11
4.
Political System and Structure of Antagonist .........................
17
5.
Perceptions and Policies of Antagonist
with Respect to the Conflict .......................................
29
or External Relations of Antagonist
Foreign
1
and Involvement by Third Parties in the Conflict ...................
40
.
52
.....................
7.
Military Capabilities of Antagonist
8.
Status and Performance of Antagonist' s Military Capabilities
9.
L~c
Due to the Conf lict
Re Le c s . . .
.
. . .
for AntLagonist
. . - ..
.
. - - - - - -
6
.........
..
-
+
+
- .
,
64
75
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11
CODING
TTCTI1ONS
IN.STRU
For the purposes of this study of local conflicts two assumptions
First,
it
"adversaries"
is
assumed that there are only two principal parties,
involved in any given conflict; and,
are
to be made.
"antagonists," or
that all other direct or indirect
participants therein are "third parties" to the.conflict, regardless of their effect
The term "antagonist" is used throughout this
upon its eventual development or outcome.
codebook to designate the one principal party under consideration at a given moment,
while the "adversary"' is used in this context to refer to the other.
An "antagonist" comprises,
further,
the sum of the ruling "regime"
or effective elite) of this principal party,
political jurisdiction or effective control.
(i.e., government
plus whatCever "general population" is
in
its
These distinctions are adhered to through-
out the codebook, and specific items (or, questions) are phrased in terms of each.
For
me conflicts,
whom one designates
it
depends very much upon one's interests or frame of reference,
as the principal parties or "antagonists"
volved "third parties.'
For our purposes,
however,
it
is
thereto,
and whom as in-
the ori7nal two parties to
the local conflict, as they define themselves, which are to be defined as the
"antagonists.
Thenceforth, any international,
supra-national,
regional,
national, or autonomous
sub-ational force or organization that becomes involved in the conflict, directly or
indirectly,
in
partial or neutral fashion,
is
to be regarded as a "third party" to the
conflict, for purposes of answering this codebook.
One special or exceptional case in this regard is that of a revolution,
rebellion,
or uprising (etc.) against a colonial (or effectively colonial) government.
In this case,
-the colonial government itself and the rebel or revolutionary organization are -to be defined as the principal parties to the conflict; and the metropolitan country,
as a "third
party" with which the colonial government has formal security and economic alliances.
While this requirement may seem both arbitrary and a gross distortion of reality, it is
necessary to ensure the comparability of our data base, and will, it is expected, prove
a fruitful, if novel, approach to the analysis of such conflicts.
The codebook proper
is divided into nine sections.
of questio:s that pertain either to the
the
conflict in
Section 1 is composed exclusively
general or to the relationship between
ntgnists, and that are to be answered as such.
In sections-2 through 9, however,
each antagonist is dealt with separately; each question therein is to be answered for each
antagonist.
Thus, at the top of page 6, you are asked to identify the antagonist or
adversary for whom you will answer the questions on that same colored sheet throughout the
remainder of the codebook.
The questions in these sections, you will notice,
correspond on
-iii-
opposite sheets throughout; and which antagonist you choose to place on either side (or color)
is of no difference, so long as consistency is maintained.
The manner in which the questions are to be answered brings us to the second major
assumption of this study.
It is assumed that, in their life-cycles, all conflicts pass variously through the
following phase scheme:
Phase I:
Pre-Military Phase--wherein the conflict is conceived in non-military terms;
Phase II:
Military-But-Pre-Hostilities Phase--wherein the conflict is conceived by
the antagonists in military terms (deployment, mobilization,etc.) but no actual
hostilities, other than random or accidental, are being con 4 ucted:
Phase III: Hostilities Phase--wherein organized and systematic hostilities have been
undertaken to resolve or settle the conflict;
Phase IV:
Military-But-Post-Hostiltities Phase, or termination of hostilities phase-wherein hostilities are broken off, but no settlement of the conflict has
been achieved; thus, the conflict is as yet conceived in military terms, and
could precipitate renewed hostilities;
Phase X:
Post-Military Phase, or, settlement phase--wherein the particular conflict
at hand ceases to be conceived of in military terms; this phase is, then,
analogous to Phase I, and can occur but once in the life-cycle of a particular conflict.
It is to be noted that the life-cycle of any particular conflict may involve transitions forward, backward, or in a feedback loop, with the result that there is no set
or established "course" for any given conflict to follow through the phase scheme.
-iv-
Further, within any Phase(s) III of a conflict, there may occur "escalations" or
"de-escalations" of the on-going hostilities.
For our purposes, such occurrences are con-
stituted by only a gross change, initiated by either side, in the existing "rules of the
game' (explicit or tacit) governing the conduct and limitation of hostilities.
In simplified form, then, the dynamic model of conflict looks like this:
E
D
The broken lines indicate possible "courses" that any given conflict may follow in going
from any one Phase (or, in P-III, from any one sub-phase) to another.
It is to be expected,
then, that each conflict will follow its own idiosyncratic course through this model, and
the codebook has been structured to accomodate
this expectation.
-v-
Thus,
you are asked to identify,
conflict has- passed.
P I
on page 1,
the phases through which this particular
It may, for example, have followed such a course as this
P1I
-
P III - R IV
-
P III - E*I - P IV - P V
if hostilities had broken out, terminated, broken out again, and escalated, before being
terminated,
and a settlement
finally reached.
In this particular case, with eight phases and sub-phases, there were seven "transitions"
from one phase to another.
It is the number of such transitions that have occurred in a par-
ticular conflict which is indicated by the T's in the left hand column of page 1.
is
at each of these T's that the great majority of the questicxs in
And it
this codebook are to
be answered.
Thus, each case undergoes a certain number of transitions, each of which occurs at the
end of the preceding phase.
Wherever the response structure to any given question indicates
that it is to be answered at every T through which the conflict has passed, you are asked
to respond in terms of the conditions existing at the very end of the previous Phase or
sub-phase (ie., at the end of P I for T-1,
at the end of P II for T-2, etc.) It is to
be noted that if the particular conflict in question has passed, for example, through
seven transitions,
then T-8 through T-12 are to be ignored throughout.
simply to accomodate more complex conflicts.
They are there
v7i
-
Wherever the response structure to a question does not specify responses. for every T
it
J.,where
is
but a single column),
the question is
a single response item of a
general nature, applying throughout the history or course of the conflict,
and may be
answered as such.
Finally,
structions.
it
is
asked that you fOrgiv2 the seeming complexity of these coding in-
They will, we feel, become obvious in
through the codebook.
their intent and menaing as you glance
And lest you be intimidated before proceding, we would note that
the overwhelming majority of the questions herein are of a non-quantitative nature, requiring for an answer only the thoughtful and sober judgment of an individual intimately
acquainted with this conflict.
severance of you, the coder,
Only that thoughtful and sober judgment, and the -per-
can provide the conpleLe and reliable data on this conflict
that is necessary to make this .study a success.
Appended to this codebook is a list of references containing pertinent quantitative
data and
-
ich, hopefully,
will be of use to you in locating specific pieces of information.
ie references are listed under substantive headings comparable to the questionnaire
format,
and are, within these headings,
listed in order of their general utility
clusiveness in terms of that subject matter.
or in-
IDENTIFICATION OF PHASES
identify Phases (including escalation(s)
the conflict (has) passed:
identify Phases by P I, P II,
(Note:
bY E I,
E II,
etc.,
and de-escalation(s)
etc.
Within Phase(s)
and deescalations by D I,
D II,
etc.
witin
il,
P III) through which
identify escalations
For our purposes,
an escalation or
de-escalation is indicated by a gross change, initiated by either side, in the exisiLin.g
rules of the game"--explicit or tacit--governing the conduct and limitation of hostilities.)
Date Started
Phase
T -1
P I
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T -12--
yr.)
Event Mark
Beginning o
hase
Initiator
which side)
ow
2.
1.
COVER SHEET DATA
(i.e., questions characterizing the conflict in general, or the relationship between the
antagonists thereto.)
Wl
1-1.
1.
2.
.3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
1-2.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Geographic Locus of Conflict
North America
Central America-Caribbean
South America
West Europe (including Greece)
E ast Europe (including Yugoslavia)
Middle East or North Africa (including Cyprus and Afghanistan)
Africa South of the Sahara
South Asia (incl. Pakistan, India, Ceylon)
East Asia and Southeast Asia
Predominant natural environment of the conflict area (check one)
Flat-dry (less than 15 in. rain/year)
(15 -5Oin. rain/yr.)
'Flat-wet (more than 50 in. rain/yr.)
Mountainous-dry
Mountainous-moderate
__Flat-moderate
mf
Mointainous-wet
(Ref.: Ch. 6 of S.J.Dietchnan, Limited War and American Defense Policy
Cambridge, 1964)
m~
3.
SCharacterize
e nature of the prevailing pol it ical relationship
antago-nists within the past 20 years
.
(previous
between the
to T-I)
Cooperacive
Competitive
3.
1-4.
E:xploitive
(i.e.,
colonial,
Characterize the nature of the prevailing military relationship
antagonists within the past 20 years (previous to T-1):
Sporadic,
random hostilities
3.
Prolonged,
organized hostilities
Classify the predominant nature of this conflict for these antagonists (check one)
1.
Colonial
2.
3.
4.
Interstate
Internal
Both interstate and internal
1-6.
between the
Peaceful
1.
.2.
1-5.
etc.)
How long, in months, has this specific conflict (or, this particular recurrence
of this conflict) persisted since it went to Phase II (i.e., set T-1 equal to 0).
1.
T-1
1-7.
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-1l T-12
Do there exist "ideological" differences between the antagonists (i.e., differences
between their policy-relevant views of the world and of the desireable)
at this point
in
1.
2.
3.
T-2
the conflict?
Extreme differences
Mild differences
None
T-l
T-2
T-3
-T-5 -7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-6l T-12
4.
8.
Does the conftict at this pcinu- involve any specifiable piece of real estate
control of a piece of real estate)?
NT-
T-2
T3
T-4
-5
-
-
T-8
Size of area involved (or at stake) in the conflict at this point in
square miles (indicate zero, if no real estate involved);
1-9.
1
1-10.
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
the
T-10 T-ll T-12
thousands of
T-9
T-10T-ll
T-1-2
Size of population in area involved (or at stake) in conflict at this point, in
thousands (indicate zero if no real estate involved):
T-1
1-11.
T-2
T-9
(or,
T-2
T-5
T-3
-6
T-7
Has this conflict ever been brought before any agency of a
(as, Pan-American Union, OAS, OAU, etc.)?
1.
Yes
2.
No
T-1 T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-8
T-9
rnational
T-7
T-8
T-10 T-li T-12
oraniza tion
T-9
T-10 T-l1
=
-
T-12
w
1-12.
1.
2.
Has this conflict ever been brought before any agency of an international or
(i.e., League of Nations or U.N.)?
ization
Yes
No
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-11 T-12
w
10
5.
Who introduced this conflict to the
S
organ iation
n tentional
for
its
cons ider ation?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
One of the antagonists in
the conflict
A "neutral" nation
A "Great Power"
Other party
NA (not before an international organization)
T-1
1-14.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T8
T-9
T-10 T-11 T-12
On the basis of what principal complaint was this case brought before this
international organization (check onl one)?
Complaint of aggression,
ntervention, occupation,
or threats thereof
Demand for selfdetermination
Claim to territory or
status
Denial of human rights
Claim of violation of
other rights under international law or treaty
NA (not before an internatioal organization)
S
t~L~
T-1
T-2
a
I
T-3
T-4V
T-5
-T--6 T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
ii
ii
s
emi.
1;
mum,
(-U
-fl
CC
m aesa
hill.a
l ia ea
.
6.
Identify this a ntagonist in
2.
2-1.
1.
2.
3.
4.
2-2.
1.
2.
3.
4.
2-3.
the conflict
DNMOGRAPHIC DATA FOR ANTAGONIST
Characterize the single overriding ideal of the regime's cultural heritage,
cultural heritage from which it comes:
Non-resistance,
or of the
or renunciation
Rationality, or instrumental self-seeking within constitutional limits
'Aggressiveness, or struggle (or competition) without limitaticn of means
Efficient administration, or the philosophy of "the bee is nothing, the hive is all."
Characterize the single overriding preferential mode of conflict resolution in
the cultural heritage of the regime, or in the cultural heritage from which it comes.
Renunciatory (yield to opposition)
Conciliatory (compromise with opposition)
Dictatorial (dominate opposition)
Adjudicatory (submit controversy to group decision)
Major racial grouping to which this antagonist is generally considered to belong.
1.
white
2.
brown
3.
4.
black
yellow
5.
mixed
7.
Does the regime belong to the same racial grouping as the general population?
1.
2.
Yes
No
2-5..
Racial
homogeneity (Caucasoid -- Mongoloid
-
1.
'Romogeneous (80% or more of one race)
2..
Heterogeneous (less than 80%' of one race)
Negroid)
of this antagonist:
Linguistic homogeneity of this antagonist:
2-6.
Homogeneous (mraj-ority of 85% or more; no single significant minority)
Mildly heterogeneous (majority of 85% or more; significant minority of 15% or less)
Strongly heterogeneous (no group 85% or more)
1.
2.,
3.
OR
Religious homogeneity of this antagonist:
2-7.
Strongly homogeneous (90% or more of population of ore religion)
Mildly homogeneous (70-90% of population of orie re Ligion)
1__Mildly heterogeneous (50-70% of population of cne religion)
Heterogeneous (no single religious group with 50% of the population)
1.
2.
3.
4.
U'
2-8.
Dominant religious group:
indicate that religion with greater membership among
the antagonist than any other:
1.~~
Pate
s tan t
2.
Catholic
3.
-Eastern 0 r thodox
4.
induU
5.
B_
uddhis t
6.
Muslim
7.
Jewi sh
8.
9.
Confucian
10.
Other - Same as adversary
-Other - different from adversary
W
-7.
2-
Does
he reg me belong :o
the same racial gropinr
g as
he geneora I popuia
Yes
2,
2-5.
Racial
1.
2.
homogeneity
(Caucasoid
--
Mongoloid
-
Negroid)
of this antagonist:
Homogeneous (80% or more of one race)
Heterogeneous (less than 80% of one race)
Linguistic 1homogeneity of this antagonist:
2-6
1.
2.
Homogeneous (majority of 85% or more; no sile significant mtiority)
Mildly heterogeneous (majority of 85% or more;. significant minority of 15% or less)
3.
Strongly heterogeneous
2-7.
Religious homogeneity of this antagonist:
1.
Stronglyv homogeneous (90% or more of population of one religion)
Mildly homogeneous (70-90% of population of one religion)
Mildly heterogeneous (50-70% of population of one religion)
Heterogeneous (no single religious group with 50% of the population)
2.
3.
4.
Dominant religious group: indicate that religion with greater membership amonlg
the antagonist than any other:
2-8.
1.
2.
3.
(no group 85% or more)
Protestan t
_
Catholic
Eastern 0 r thodox
4.
Hindu
5.
Buddhist
6.
Muslim
7.
Jewish
8.
9.
10.
Confucian
Other - s ame as adversary
Other - d ifferent from adversary
83
*W
r
3
population
of Ct
Percent:ge
a
La
1
J.,Q
7 <:>j
*
LLLe~rate)
,,
1n3
more)
a
Low(eoiw
no
ralI popuI:ationcii)
genelc
mm
a
2109~ Daily
nes paper
ffigh (300
circulation
and
per
l000
ou
LaLion:
over)
Meduium (100 -2/99)
2
im
Low (10-99)
3
17ery
NA
4
5j
U
2.-il.
Deths.
1,'2,
tOW
'
op
10)
o general population)
clow
.,
n
from
domestic
-17
1o-r
groupio
geeral
DOl
o f1 :-r
pa Ln0
CLis 3flLar-nD~c
ae
ation
a
2)
:nze,~
or
reai in po t ical
touLsan
Si
0
7 -3(731.t
14
or actua
e-
I
'
In
1 1-2
3
1-
T 5
T
T
g
as
A
7u
i
in
political
risdi-1e0i
or1
a
2.2
1<2
1<3
3-4
;t;
.-
-a
am
-9
Fercentage
4-o
1 4igh,(80
2
3~
3
4
2-10.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
2-il.
1.
2.
2-12.
of total
population able
iterate) in at least one
language:
or m
Medium(40-79
Lo
oW
(beow
J OW 04 0- )
NA (no general pcpulation)
Daily newspaper Circ
io, per 1000 population:
Hi gh (300 and over)
Medium (100 -299)
Low (10-99)
Ver y -low(be l 10 )
NA (i.e., no general population)
Deaths from domestic group violence pcr 1000 population for this antagonist:
NA
(i.e., no general population)
Size of area in political jurisdiction or actual control of this antagonist,
thousands of square miles:
T-1
2 :3.
read(i~e. ,
Total population in
in thousands:
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T6
T-7
T-8
T-9
in
T-10 T-Ll T-12
political jurisdiction or actual control of this antagonist
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-Z47
T -5
T-6
TC-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-11l T 12
-3
a piece or rezal estat
n m trritic1al
cartes
as
in
in~volved
by
ts
ts own?
conf
tis
bounr-
'aI~ pne teritria
e amed~
zn
is
boun--l
an~-
e i t,_
i
'em
'AI
dar ie claimed b y this antagonist as its own?
3 ot
wti
#*A
anld withou01-t theC
doundaies c laie d by this
own?
relall estate involved)
antagonist as its
(no)
-2
L1
T-3 T -4
f1o a ce of real estate is
2nagnststotal
estate involved
involved in this
cla.ied Land ,area does this
T T-2 T-3
-
onflt,
what
re0resent?
T -4
If a
ece of real estate is involve(d in
tagonist s total claimed popil.ation ces
estate invo ved)
1-7
3 T -6
T-
T-8
I
T- 9
T-10 T
of this
perentg
'5 6 T-I 1
T 1I2
7 >9
thiscon
icfti wh'!Pat(perc
this~~
rereen?n
T-1. 0
ag
th
Ow
I .
1-1
-.
7,
f a piee of real estate Is
s actually controle
arai
-2
1-3
involved in
by ths
ntgos
T-
T
31is
coii
7-
--
T-6
I
1re1!
3
2
7
i
-
.--~
~j
->5
-I-
- -
-,
-
L
Sp
thee
specifte
o
ra
e
areaJ
-,
-
a
L
is
e
is
in
1i
w
cuiyctrl
1 2
-
-v
'3
A
-
9.
Tf a piece of real estate is
S thin the territorial
daries
2.
3.
4.
c'amed by
involved in
this
T -2
T -3
A_
T_-+T-
T6T7T8
T-9
T-10' T-l1
T-12
T-3
T-4
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-Ll T-12
If a piece of real estate is involved in this conflict, what percentage of this antagonist 's total claimed populaion does this represent? (Indicate NA if no real
estate involved)
T-1
T-2
T-5
T-3
T~-7+
T-1T
T-8 -T-9
T-10 T-ll T-1.2
If a piece of real estate is involved in this conflict, what percentage of that specific
area is actually controlled by this antagonist? (Indicatc NA if no real estate involved)
T-1
2-18.
t
If a piece of real estate is involved in this conflict, what percentage of this
antagonist's total claimed land area does this represent? (Indicate NA if no real
estate involved)
T
2-17.
I
an-
T-1
2-16.
iS
bon-
tagonist as its
own?
bounOutside the territorial
Caries claimied by this anown?
tagonist as its
Both within and without the
boundaries claimed by this
antagcnfiLst as its own?
NA (no real estate involved)
2-15.
this cnflct,
If a piece of real estate is
T-2
T-3
involved
a is actuallin that specifc areC
no real estate involved)
T-1
T-2
in
nyo
T-3
T-
T-5
T-6
this conflict,
e
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-1.2
what percentage of the
(lndicate NA
by this antagonistY
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-
T-9
Ta
opulatin
If
T-'h
1i)~
V~~t
rc1i.atcn
-)-
CD
I on)
n, centag.
cit tota l rcp -A
--v
Til.T-2 +3 TV
li cJI i ~s
-5
crOUO
T-67-7
T ~
h9
T-11C) I
IV4
"t
upL
ow
liR
owt
410
go
tow
a,
10.
2-19 Urbanization
4.
percentage
of total
population in cities
over
20000
T-6' T-7
6
1. ig fmore
rhan 353
2 Mdum (betvween 12 and 335%)
Low (less than 12%)
T\A (ie. , no genera~
population)
~T4
T-5
T-
!J .
qw,
3
)3 T
,
S.
R
C
NT O
NCC
IS T
-product" or
Tss nation a
sction, GNP1' is used to ) idicate eitr
ecoil 1annuai
The
to
refers
it
licable
app
i
wcv
"o F economic product,'"
anaonist.;
the
of
pro-'t or resources
not vary
wi ng qus Lions wil
2. Tn ray cases, the answers to marny of the foil
the quesi
answer
3i the case,
If such
the conflict.
ficJ.t atly throughout
area believed
gnificant changes
hroughout. Wher
at T-1, and indicate "the sam a
any item, answer the question at every such pnt.L
5o h3vfe ocCurTEd in
S
a.
S
aw
SEconomic Develpment status of this antagonist:
1.
2.
3.
1
SDevo loped (sei- sustaining; GNP/cap of $600)
ntermed fate (near self-sustaining)
Uderdeveloped (sustained growth in 1 years)
5.
NA (no economy as such)
very underceveloped
(no
such pros pc
t)
'p
Gross economic (or national) product in $ millions
economy as such):
3-2.
per y cl
a
('idicate NA if
S
1.
S
T-2
T--1
3
Growt1h rate of GN--annual
(indicate
Ti
1T-2
T-3
T-4
NA if no
T 3
T-6
T-5
:onimny
Ti
T-7
T-,3
T9
T-10
T-
6
T12
Aw
assuh)
T 5
1
T
T-9T
10
ao
Ow
3
Ra t
of
tnf
'I
i n the e4o7my
-.1~
o--
2-2
kh
r~3
pst-
I'
--. 1/
-,
-
A
-~
.1-I
---------am
11.
3.
ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORTATION DATA. OR ANTAGONIST
Note:
1. In this section, GNP is used to indicate either "gross national product" or
gross economic product," whichever is applicable; it refers to the annual. economic
product or resources of the antagonist.
2. In many cases, the answers to many of the following questions will not vary
significantly throughout the. conflict. If such is the case, answer the question(s)
at T-1, and indicate "the same" throughout. Where significant changes are believed
to have occurred in any item, answer the question at every such point.
3-1.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
3-2.
1.
3-3.
Economic Development status of this antagonist:
Developed (self-sustaining; GNP/cap of $600)
Intermediate (near self-sustaining)
Underdeveloped (sustained growth in 10 years)
Very underdeveloped (no such prospect)
(no economy as such)
._NA
Gross economic (or national) product in $ millions per year
economy as such):
T-1
T-2
T-3
Growth rate of GNP--annual (indicate NA if
T-1
3-4.
I
T-2
T-3
II
T-4
T-5
T-6
(indicate NA if no
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-11 T-12
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-l2
no economy as such):
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
Rate of inflation in the economy over the past year (indicate NA if
1.
T-1
T-2
T-3
T
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
no economy as such)
T-9
T-10 T-11 T-12
12
-
3-5.
-
'-'
.--
-
(i
S'3
per
(iniat
ye:)
sonomy
9)
3
,
6
originatLig
Uf GNP
tPer centae
T-1
3 7x Pereuage
NA
af GNP
(per year)
T-2
T-3
6.
La
lee
9L
NA
if
5 T-6
T-4T
du~ eel a
to
no@ economy
assh
T' 9
T-1
r-7
T-
emi Cal i.ndus t6
n c
T
ries
(indir
T-
T-9 T-10 T
12k12
i no economy as such):
T-1
Total productin
3-8
(md
in
such)
as
of steel
T-3 T+ T5T-6 T-7
T-2
in thousands
tons per yar
of
:A if
(indicate
no econoy
T2
""
00
as such):
T-1
T-3
T-2
T-6
7
T-
repcesented by
GNP is
What percentage of this antagonst's
(indicate NA if no economy as such)
3-9.
T-5
T-
its
- TA
T-3
9
11
exoort trade?
*0
04
41~I 3>
3I
3
v-7
F--6
T-
t
711
s
A
S
N
~v~iCi
aid receiveud
(in
IC,
;
13
3-l
i)
7 :61(771
6
ut CViQThtC
a
Ic]
r o
(in
X/eIvedI
-'
*-
r
.
C-
.4
--~-i
1
'ar
-7
8
I
-~
1 'N
I:
C
I,
-----
/
-w
--
,1
-
N
a
S
a
12.
3-
Per capita GNP (in
$ per
ear)
(indicate
T-1
3-6.
Percentage
-'
T-,
of GNP originating in
NA if
o
T-5
T-4
agriculture
conomy as such)
T-
T- Tu8
(indicate NA if
9T-9
T-1
d
T-1E-2
1
no economy as such):
..............
.......
T-1
3-7.
Percentage of GNP (per year)
NA if no economy as such):
1.
3-8.
T-2
in
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-
T-8
T-9
durable goods and chemical industries
T-1
Total production of steel in
T-3
.
T-2
T-3
~
T-T
~
T-5
.
T-6
thousands of tons per year
L
T-7
-T~~
L
T-TU T-ll
T-12
(indicate
T-9
(indicate NA if
T-10 T-ll T-12
-
no economy
as such):
T-1
3-9.
T-2
What percentage of this antagonist's
(indicate NA if no-economy as such)
T-1
3-10.
Total foreign aid received
(in
Total
T-4
GNP is
T-2
T-3
C-5
T-6
T-7
represented by its
T-4
T-5
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-l1
T-12
export trade?
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
$ millions per year)
T-l
3-11.
T-3
T-2
foreign economic aid received
T-1
T-3
(in
T-2
T-4
T-5
$ millions per year):
T--3
T?
T-5
T-6T7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-llT-12
13
ni
gn
aid
receve
a. s
ii cate NA if ,
prc
econmy
3eg
sac
C
Es
N
12
e3
c-cs this
party
have what
is
1 -3
' -T5
regarded
genraly
Sr f
T-
r
T
as3 a
iz
ani
ecea;id:
T8
T-
T-1
rogressive"
a
sr
T
uc1ur1?
.
*
UA
3.
.;'A (Jie no economy as
s;u ch
T T3
Revenue Of regime
as pexcen.iage
*
T
-
oL G-NP (:nd cate
NA if
-7
T-8
T9
T -10
T
T 12
OR
no economy as such):
ON"
2-
T3
T5
T-6
T-7
T8T9
-10 T,
TI 2
*N
Ow
3-. 5 Expend itures
of r egime as
percentoage Cf
GNP
(indicate
NA
16t t-z I-3 1>4 T-5 T-
tf no
ccnomay
as such)
am
Iw
T'-7 T-8
T-
T-10
T
T
2
lo
3-16.
Expeditures
for social
welfare
service n by this
n cl di; health, education, pubIc
hous Jng ,
no economy as such) :
.J..
A--.--
re-gi me
wefr
a3
bnf
~
4---.-.-~
$
cn
of
QW,' 1 em
--.
I
t
- I t' I s -,
a*
.?
( ; ad .; -
-
-"-It
or
TOA
t
~
131
I
'1 jtLEMJJ13
bnid-;1-;
-
1-*.....
a
T 2- 6
T
WA
-,
-v -
A.
aw
13.
3A21
T-I
3-13.
1.
2.
3.
GP plus foreign aid receivd:
Foreign aid received as percentage of party's o
(Indicate NA if no economy as such)
Does this party have what is
T-2
T-3
T~4
T-5
T-6
T-8
T-7
T-9
T-10 T11 T-12
generally regarded as a "progressive" tax structure?
Yes
No
NA (i.e., no economy.as such)
I
T-1
T-2
t
3
T4
I
T-5
I
T-2
T-3
T4T-5
T-6
i
a
TT-8
3-14 Revenue of regime as percentage of GNP (indicate NA if
T-1
I
.I
T-10 T-l
no economy as such):
T-7
T8T9T1
-1T1
3-15.
Expenditures of regime as percentage of GNP (indicate NA if no economy as such).
3-16.
Expenditures for social welfare services by this regime as percentage of its GNP,
including health, education, public housing , welfare benefits, etc. (indicate
NA if
I.
no economy as such):
___2T-3_T_6_T_7_-8_12
T7-1
3-17l
T-12
T-2
Total military defense budget (in
T-1
T-3
7-4
T-5
T-6
$ millions per y ar)
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
(indicate NA if
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-1l T-12
no econmy as such)
T-10 T-ll T-12
A
S
Il
c
LUdlOrit..2
V
').1:
\
''"I
S
T2
3-9.
inta try
Trotal
NA if:
no
deftense buLd
my a s such):
ecn
T'
-
@1:
;t2
7 T -8
aid rcei
forelgn
Vt?
VeI
W;
V.
UP
T2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T4
T-7
T-h 8
-9
T-10 T-T
t2
ow
3-2()
empioymeunt as
Agi§ Cultural
3
1
Emp l yment
3-21.
pCL. QCT±L33~6
iin JTfldci.:sttly
as
2
prcentage
1-i 1 2
Unemployed as percentage C
3-22.
T-3
T- T
' la t
T-3
T4
Tr
4
T-
L 0 age
population -ige 15 ~6'
3
-
(incUr
5
T-83
15-64:
T 6
6
T-9
T 8
a N
if
7
no
T1
indicate
7
ci!
(ind6ate NA if
-9
NA
M
Ti
nG
i
T-1
p
n9 )3
T
em
no o neral
Sm
.8
9
T
O
2-12
ar Qalaemloymentt of
ppulationa:
Is this a:
Unemocloyment
genral
I
U1J
.1
T-4
o
T4 2
33.
a es 15-64:
2
iw
.1
-
.xH;Lcn
1
1
IL
.-c'
-,
.'
.....
L ...
-~.1
I1
-
.
Al
of
'rYoCem
--
-...
)
...
2 -3.4.,.. t:
-.
I-
A.-
S
.
.
&
.-.
*1
V
19
-
I
Ut
ml
14.
i.
3 -]L
9
1
Total military dteese budge
as percentage
e
GNP (iTdicate NA if
Total military defense budget as percentage of GNP
NA if no economy as such):
no
;co ncy
us foreign aid received
(ind ck5e
.
T.1
3-20.
E.mployment in
Unemployed
1.
2.
3.
4.
T-2
T-3
T-2
T-3
as percentage of population age
T-1
3-23.
T-
T-5
T
T-7
T-
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-2
Unemployment or mal-employment of
general population:
Is this a:
T-3
T-4
T-5
T~6
T-7
T-5
T-
local "intellectuals"
T-7
in
T-9
T
T-9
1
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
no pop'n.)
T-10 T-_l
-12
no genleral popul'ation)
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-1l
T-12
this antagonist's
i
T-2
no pop n
T-10 T-11 T1~-12
(indicate NA if
Marked problem
Mild problem
No, 'or negligible problem
NA
e ,ino population,
T-1
T-10 T-ll T-12
(indicate NA if
NA if
15-64:(iodicate
T-
T-9
T-7T-8
industry as percentage of population age 15-64:
T-1
3-22.
T-3
Agricultural employment as percentage of population ages 15-64:
T-1
3-21.
T 2
T-8
I
T-9
T-10 T-il T-12
I),
-t
KS
7'
ji~
A'
-
it
LA CT
f*~ £- 7
,
3
e
off
0isposal
Nu
estate3
is
pvd
hUghwayl (in Ctsans) Wich are controlle
by n ' ora
t this antbTgoni: stY in theA conflict area(s) (indicate NA if. no real
involxved):
Tl T-2
Amber of 2iles
-~
6)
7
Of ratJlroa
t in
-t4
T-3
T-
(inthusnd)
'I
1 6
T-7
h
n
T4
T-9
11a
(indicate NA if
-63
20
y
FOAl
TV>
1-4
Number of airports capable of handling heavy piston -ircraft
are controlled by or at
d.i' s posal
o1 Cf Che (2
ntagonist
in
3
Vo
T-Si9I-OW-~L
or
7..(7
F!
at
cs~--ite
eo
AL
invoini)
-6T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10
(DC -3
the
T-10T
T-I
l - 2
or larger)
t't
cofic
area2I(s
a
1
C-1 1-2
T-3
Y-4
Tr-
T-6
T-7
T-
T-9
1-,O
TLI
T-2
a
3
8.
N
Ier of airports capabe
t '1e disposal of this an
of
t
handl
S
t
ni
i
e
co
1
-
a-
/
)
a
I,
3
A.
.
7-3
~
U -,
T~-~
I-)
(
A.
I
1
.
.t..
,,
A
1'
a
a
a
me
go
15..
3-24
Nomads as percentage
of pop ulaion:
indicat
NA if
no gene ral population)
-L
3-25.
T-2
T-3
Numtber of miles of railroad (n
thousands)
of this antagonist in the conflict area(s)
T-1
3-27.
T-2
T-3
T-4
T -5
TT-9
d.
T-10 T-1l T-12
which are controlled by or at the disposal
(indicate NA if no real estate involved)
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-1
T-ll T-12
Number of airports capable of handling heavy piston aircraft
(DC -3 or larger) which
are controlled by or at the disposal of the
in
Atagonist
the conflict area(s)
T-6
3-28,
L-
Number of miles of paved highway (in thousands) which are controlled by or at the
disposal of this antagonist in the conflict area(s) (indicate NA if no real
estate is involved):
T-1
3-26.
Il AL
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-0 T-LL T-12
transports ,whichare controlled by or
.aber of airports capable of handling jet
the disoosal of this antagonist in the conflict area(s):
1.
T-1
T-2
T-3
T~4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
a
CCc
1
4
mama
I
mu# mam a
mahamaE
mui mu
mmI mai
i
16.
3-29, Nber of seapoErts
(or copaab
elites) canable
fL
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
of handling ocesn-go-ng
T--7T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
'-4
'4
4.)
C
.
N
r
i
I
.7
-'4
tin
I
tn
4
4
.4
4
,44
1.
'-4
.4.
s(
17.
4.
POLITICAL SYSTEI_ AND
Characterize this antagonist:
4-1.
(check. oe)
Independent national government
Colonial government
Internationally appointed trusteeship or interim government
Rebel or insurgent organization.
2
3.
4.
Date of independence of this antagonist as a nation:
4-2.
3.
4.
Before 1800
1800-1913
1914-1945
After 1945
5.
NA
1.
2.
__
4-3.
(not an independent nation)
Modern colonial ruler (present or most recent) of this antagonist
1.
Britain
France
4.
5.
6.
Spain
Portugal
Netherlands
Belgium
ital~y
7.
9.
4-4
Nne in modern times
Exective stabiliy
(i.e.,
within previous ten years)
1
STRUCTURE OF ANTAGONLST
nmbe
of chief
(indicate NA if
x
rrganiz3tion)
ree
or
as
of government
I
C 1!EA Mail 71
~
-~ ,
,..1
-
.
-~
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,
ng
I
-
.
u.
.4. 3.
c.: .1
S
C
I
u.
:-'
S*3G
-
2,
-.
---
-..
i:.C
C
...
-
72..
r
C
C
4..
T
ap
.-
a6
--
lo
c
1
1
ra
a
in elieextem
pour~
3 LL
1
*,r
y'~~~r'-'
AC
L
-0 ,
2
-E
r
~ .44mJ ,:~ev
-2...c~
--
Sb-a
1
~
iLt
a
.L.
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3
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3 3
i
~1
a
_
a
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Sae
. r Ce
.P: to7C1
zent
1.., -. 1..
* )......................1
-, -- - J-'. - , -
4 "-
so
7//v
V
13
1
.-
4
-
.--
3-
..
t"
1W
a--
ak
18.
4-5.
1.
2.
3.
Characterize
type of government or political structure:
Political democrac --autonomous
executive, legislature, and
courts as well as interest
groups, political parties,
and mass media
__I
democracy--structurTutelary
al forms and norms of
democracy present, but
concentration of power
in executive and bureaucracy - democratic goals
Modernizing oligarchy--
g
dTmocratic constitution
absent--power concentrated in hands of military
or bureaucracy - goal of
modernization
(especially
economic)
4.
t
t*
_
__
Totalitarian oligarchy-extreme concentration of
power in elite, extreme
penetration of society
by policy --
goals may be
nationalist or global
revolutionary
5.
Traditional oligarchy-usually monarchic or dynastic,
based on custom rather
than statute;goals are
primarily maintenance goals
6.
_-A
NA(i.e., rebel or insurgent
organization with no government as such)
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
I
T-lO T-ll T-l2
a,
S
anot a
at
a
Ier
-IT
O
{-5&-oTT
-
-
37
T6i
7 T-8
T-..9
TAO
T>
2-
.
y
.
y
U.
.
(i.e,,
r,3
oranization)
a
T
1
T2
T- T-5 T-6 T 7 T-8 T-9
T 3
T)
T
T 132
1
S
a
u.,dCiC ia-rv'
o 3 tuS;O f
.1
.9
1
S
0
C
~1.
,)[
J.s\
-1J1
(3
11,
IS
5
I
A~
.4
4
-.
.1..
ow
'5
.1.
5.
I
.. s!&1
.4
.3
5.,
4
,
.4.
oS
w
-
4-6.
1.
19.
Current status of executive as opposed to other branches of government:
Doi-nant (throughout government establishment)
2.
Strong (dominance limited
to purely executive
functions)
3. Weak (dominated by another
branch of government, by
political party, etc.)
4.
NA (i.e., rebel organization)
T-1
4-7.
1.
2.
3.
5.
NA (i.e., rebel organization)
3.
4.
5.
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
.T-10
T-Ll T-12
no legislature
T-1
2.
T-3
Fully effective (co-equal
branch of government)
Partially effective (virtually dominated by
executive)
Wholly ineffective
(rubber stamp)
None --
I.
I
T-2
Current status of legislature:
4.
4-8.
a
I
a
T-10 T-ll T-12
Curent status of judiciary:
Fully effective (co-equal
branch of government)
Partially effective (virtually dominated by
executive)
Wholly ineffective
(rubber stamp)
None -- n.o judiciary
NA (i.e.,
a
a
rebel organization)
-
T
T
T-
T-_7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-11 T-12
17~
-. 7
01 C 1- i
a
2.
S
c
We oil a2
C) flt i
h
m.7
at
t2
A
J, ifult1 . d
al
A
Ao
a y rannal,
mmCh
a
titan
w
L~.7
at
adat-
on
~
I
a"
I
ap
0 -1-1 1
07x.12 an.n
7. 1
ab
~
T~r-
0iIO I DLd the
present
regime
attaa
2
T-.3
~
TA
1>5
~
1-6
§1>7
1>8
by e Lsb ish id cons ti tuio
power
T--9
C-tO I
pr- -e odnr
I). 1'- L2
e
a
Yes
S
13 IA T
e ree«
organization)
iT3 T-4T
T-6
T-77
I-8
a
T 9
TT
12
a
leader
to
r-n1
.7
7, .
. 7 . -.
r
ec
x
Cara.
hip.
les 1
functiona
Lri,
a
the valest
icaI
in? the polt
S Ltruc.it 7)
a ure o2iaf t his regime:
S
..
i.wholl
I,- T7 1
n'lv
A
-
1
1
11- 11-1--
J~
_-
. . .
_ _ - --j , '
"
__A
-
J..
.
F -7
.1 __J..__K
I
MI
A
_
-
_-4
.7
A
.1
V
i .-
aNO
.7
.-
-.7
1'
so
(A
20.
Character of bureaumra
4-9.
1.
2.
3.
or administrative organs:
Modern (generally rational
and effective, recruitment
largely on basis of
achievement)
Semi-modern (largely
rational, limited
ef ficienc y)
Transitional (ex-colonial,
largely rational, adapting to own social
institutions)
4.
5.
Traditional (largely nonrational, ascriptive recruitment)
NA (i.e.,rebel organization)
1.
Yes
2.
No.
3.
NA (i.e. rebel organization)
1.
3.
T-8
T-7
-.
i_-L
t
T-9
T-lO T-11 T 12
PiL
T
T-
A.
_--
.L
T
7 T
-
l T-12
Recruitment to leadership. Characterize the values dominant in recruitment of
psonnel into functional roles in the political structure of this regime:
Elitist--recruitment wholly
according to ascriptive
criteria (i.e. ,membership
in a class, caste, pol.
party, etc.)
2.
1
T-4T-5 T-6
T-T-3
T-1
T 3
Did the present regime attain power by established constitutional procedure?
4-10,
4-11.
2Ia
I
Moderate--recruitment largely
but not wholly according to
ascriptive criteria
Non-elitist--achievement or
ability criteria dominate
recruitment process
Ia
I
4L
I
A
~A
~
____£L
~
T-1hYTJ~T~~3
T 6 TZ7
T:
T-1 T-12
a
-I--i
12C
4~4~4
21
--'I
44
It
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-. 4-I
2
I
'(p
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I
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C)>
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4.4
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4-;
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cc'
(1
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24
gmm
On)
4
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4-4-I
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4
7
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mmmi EU
21.
4-12.
Ideological orientation of regime:
1.
Left wing (Communist, etc.)
2.
Moderate
(Democratic,
Socialist,
3.
etc.)
Right wing (Military,
Fascist, etc.)
T-l
4-13.
T-2
Traditionalist or reactionary.
2..
Moderate
3.
Revolutionary
Doctrinaire-leftist
Doctrinaire-rightist
3.
Pragmatic-moderate
4.
None
T-2
3.
4.
5.
T-3
L
T-l
2.
T-8
T
T-7
T-8- T-9
T-1O T-1l T-12
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-10 T-i1
T-9
T-10 T-l1
T-12
T-4
T-5
Character of international policy of this regime:
1.
2.
1.
T
T-7
T-6
- pragmatic
T-1
4-15.
T-5
Political orientation of regime toward internal affairs:.
1.
4-14.
T-4
T-3
-ai
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-9
T-12
Communist orientation of this regime:
Commun.ist-Soviet oriented
Communist-China oriented
Communist-Independent
Non-Communist
Avowed anti-Communist
-~-J-~______
T-1
I
p
I
B
I
I
I
T-2
I
I
~
I.
T-3
i
T-4
T-6
T-7
I
I
I
I
-
T-5
I
T-8
T-9
I
I
I
T-10 T-ll T-12
.2
2
Qua
to ect -its
o S1
esth
e
of regille
eOd nn Q.
f
3
5
'101O rts made by re.ime
M!.
i
)
t)
Tmtob
T3
T-- 9
1)4
10
r It
on7,IL
ne
S
0 nl
7a
s
,
-
e
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4 8o
tc
poo
cnn
1:
on
or 7 oi
S 1o
4
T- I
ow e)
.a.
T -10
T
n
i1I3-
-S:m c
C
gnI
4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T-9
Itd-
1
i -, Awn
n/
2
4,
T
2I
22.
4-16.
1.
2.
Leadership charisma within regime:
Pronounced
Negligible or none
4-17.
T-1
T-9
T T-8
T-6
T-10 T-ll T-12
Mobilizational style o-f r'egime (ef f orts made by regime to mobilize general
to meet its established .political goals):
1. Fully -mobilizational (all
population)
2. Limited mobilizational (specific segments of society)
3. Non-mobilizational (opposes
or suppresses popular participation in political
process)
NA (i.e. ,no general
4.
population)
4-18.
'T-4' T-5
T-3
T-2
T-7
-.
-
T~~~~~~-
T-3
T-l
T-2
T8T9TlT-9
T-8
T-1
population
T-1
-lT
T
1
T
T-T
Political integration of general population:
1. High (integrated polity, no
extreme opposition to pol.
system, or non-assimilated
groups)
2. Medium (significant .minority
in opposition, or nonassimilated)
Low (non-integrated or re3.
stricitve polity with majority
in opposition or non-assim.
4. NA (i.e., no general
a
p
I
population)
T-l
T-2
a
a
a
T-3
T 4
T-5
I
T-6
I
T 7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-l
T-12
1
S.U
IUII
iaug
mg
gmgmggu
g
23.
4-19.
Freedom of press allowed by this regime:
1.
2.
Complete (no censorship)
Intermittent (occasional
3.
or selective)
Internally absent (domestic'
4.
5.
censorship, but none on
newsgathering for foreign
dissemination)
Internally and externally
absent (strict
domestic
and foreign control)
NA (no press)
4-20.
1.
I-T7_T__-4 _T _51- 9
T -9
T E0 T-41T-
T-
~
-1 ~
Freedom of .group opposition allowed by this regime:
Autonomous
groups free to
enter politics and oppose
government
2.
Autonomous groups free to or
-
ganize; limited in capacity
3.
to oppose government
Autonomous groups tolerated
only outside politics
4.
No autonomous groups
5.
tolerated
NA (no general
population)
T-1
T-w:Y
T -3
T4
IT-5
T6
-7T8T9T-lO1
T-liT1
~t
'44
(4
(4
4
"--i .
St
-i-- 4
4
4'4
-'-4
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'-4
Si
2-4
in
44-
41)
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4
v0
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1
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u-.
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t
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4-i
(I
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(43
4.1
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4.4.4'..
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444-4
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4-.44
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24.
4-.21.
1.
2.
3.
4.
Interest articulation by anomic (spontaneous)
demonstrators ,etc.)
Frequent
Infrequent
None tolerated
NA (i.e.,no general
population)
TlT2T-3
4-22.
1.
2.
3.
groups (i.e., mobs
T -l_
T-6
T-
-s-
T-l
T-l
T-12
T -2
T -3
T-
T -5
TWTT8T9Tl
T-lT-12
Interest articulation by institutional groups (i.e., institutions performing other
social functions--as, church):
1.
2.
Significant politically
Insignificant politically
3.
NA(i.e. ,no general population)-------------
T-1
4-24.
T-5
Interest articulation by associational groups (i.e., specialized structures of
interest articulation--as, unions):
.Significant politically
Insignificant politically
NA.(i.e..,no general population )
4-23.
T-4
T-2
T-3
T-4T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
-
T-9
T-lo T-lI T-12
Interest articulation by political parties:
1.
Signficant politically
2.
3.
Insignificant politically
NA(i.e.,no general population
)
---4- 4-
--
T-3
J
-~-
-~.-AJ
____
AM.
9..
4-23. Constitutia
statuS
~C
.-
26
rno
cal parties.:
""t
a
-i
'*
parti esallowed
rrol
11
- *
*
ofl
,
ma
e
a
at all)
0e7
r 'pulaLion
I-IP-
-
T' 3
TA 4
-5
T-6
T-7
S.
T8
T-9
T-10 CIT
12
a
a
a
S
a
in
eS
Tt
a1 n.
V
Lr
oa I
DO-
t y~
1
a
1.
a
nI
t
ItJ
t
-
De:,
.
t
S
or0-
t
o
ty1-ST-6
e' e)
a
(0
-
ip 3r-
1-Ssonah'-0
A
Iex-
a
S
1
a
a
mAr
J,
g
aA
-
a
-t
a
k
Cant
20
r4-'fJD
1~~
'2
I.-
a
*1
a
-a--.
a
-J.,
A
-
-. )
a
-.-
i~4.,
a
S
a
S
25.
Constitutional status of political parties:
4-.25
1.
2.
3.
4.
Compectitive (no party ban
at all)
Partially competitive (selective outlawry of parties
Non-competitive (no oppositioin
parties allowed at all)
NA (no general population)
T-1
4-26.
One-party (no opposition)
2.
One-party dominant ( no
effective opposition)
One and one-half party (opposition significant but unable to win majority)
Two-party (reasonable expectation of party rotation
Multi-party (coalition or
minority party gov't normally
4.
5.
T-10 T-ll T-12
Effective party system:
1.
3.
T-9
T-8
T-7
T-6
T-4T-5
T-3
T-2
A
-
-
mandatory)
6.
no general
NA (i.e.,
population)
4-27 .
1.
2.
3.
4.
T9
-7T-8
-6
T5
T4
T-1TT-
T-12
T-101T
Personalism within political parties (personality oriented):
Pronounced (all parties highly
personalistic)
Moderate (some personalism)
Negligible (no significant
personalism)
no general
NA (i.e.,
population)
I
a
T-1-
a
a
a
i
-4-:
a
1
-8S=q-
T--2TII
~
r-oLT
-T
_
rFPF
26
8
re) Centage
ofj
2ge.
voting
ite
(
tios
NA
if
popnlaion; I C >7)1
in> tC
no
eH s rjc
d
ECtc
1ece tctnno
s
eet
oua
T~T
.
>7
o
-r r oL
,L L io)
1
))pu'
v e r ee ra
1-8
*NP
i
- 119
1T
OW
1
OW
-cie
ths
tesC.-?
b
a pec!entage
cto xral
of
ppulat
r
i
the total
vote
ion):
n theJ m!ost racen: popular (oI n tiona)e
lect
castt
(indicate A if no elections ever held
us
uo
I
lo
W
1
as
ecton
tCneld,
3ectons
b
T1 T2
Wer4
e
Yor oel
etci'd ,
17
1 no
g1
T-3
cC'C'~~
T-T
, 1 T- t
17
'
lo
a0
LCtotl cLjs C:ast in r the mowt recenit 2 0bu
- a'v.1 ;_1
p pu II
Lefat
n far Ges
6idic a t e
2§C 'f
0x2
-?
;IC
a
1
-
ao
) )1 u 1
I1
3
Xa
or
noe
~n
y
v
.o
1] S
-g
na tionalJ) eeC
let.
ions ever
£
held
-Cpr
,
e A
r
or no0
1-4
T-T-6
T- T-8 T-9 1-10 1 !J
EG
t
ot
o
-
e
eat
in
QOk
r
i:ms
e"-'sL?
* .
1<
-.
*-
geea populat ion):
.9'
-~
1
i.
lo
ft
I-1 T-2
i
3
aTr
g
-ist
exIC pe r1f;y)ie
-n(d
a
1-3
T4
T-5
1.Edtrship-
T-6
T-7
" ris
T-
1-
T
A..
H 7>12
CCCCC
C-A
f-P
a
~
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ho'
1- h.
A
a
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.
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,
to
W
1 .1in
-A
N I-
w
C
j
8 A
~..
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1)
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?~ .i
r'
'
C
NOW
ao
ow
'p
26.
Percentage of voting age population voting in the most recent popular (or national)
elections (indicate NA if no elections ever held, or no general population):
4-28.
T-l
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7T
Votes received by this regime in the most recent popular (or national)elections, as
a percentage of the total vote cast (indicate NA if no elections ever held, or no
general population):
4-29,
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-lO T-ll T-12
How many votes, as a percentage of the total votes cast in the most recent popular
(or national) elections, were received by all "Left Wing" parties? (Indicate NA if
no elections ever held, or no general population):
4-30.
1.
I
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
How many votes, as a percentage of the total votes cast in the most recent popular
(or national) elections, were received by all "Right Wing" parties? (Indicate NA if
no elections ever held, or no general population):
4-31.
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-l
T-12
Has this antagonist experienced a leadership "crisis" during this Phase?
4-32.
1.
2.
T-10 T-ll T-12
T-
Yes
No
_______
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-11 T-12
27
s.
ed a chang
'
duing
-egimes
this
i
th
e
r a
a 1.
1n
phse
a,
T-1T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5
T0T-9
T-6T-7
T-i0
2
Ti
S
a
3/
,Js
it
I'
wwxQe
out~c
ec
''->~us
_
;-
.L
ir,
,
-)C4th
0. t1
I*-G
I ~~
ivV&
e'
1d,M-.Ie
,
s-w
-
a.
u1J
th~r
LT~t
I'
r
s
rc.
s
&?wtc~c~~kLUC
-
,-;
1-i~-T
UF
T§~
c otrra-t
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t
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0
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ri
t
%
el
S
-c
,_
* V
S
./
3
T>
Pl
19
)LI
i
ha,
S
eneral public)
to
th
c-nsCitut
min
.
tis
caaii
th
of
s ;<>:
?~
ow
2.
o
it
,
is
seen as an
inde.pendent msovement or
force)a
eea
n
foA (i e.,
T-1
s the l-evel
.7
I'-2zT-3vT-
of genc al I popl
ira
this conflic t?
suppor-IE, t
T5T-6
(among
±ieCtives in
1 high
eneallyJ
its:
TT-
T-8
paopul
ae)
.,i_I
T-10 T1 T
the regrie
for
.
L~.
-J
T-9
A
- 2.
AC
~~~Ui1I~~~,-
al-
..
DO3
ul
ati.L'.
3.3
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- ---..
_
I £
3
a
.
C)
..
.
33~~)
.
W
.
1-~.
.,iL
J
eneral.y:now
1,2
I.
*
a' 'ij
a
S
ma,
S
a
S
27.
4-33.
1.
2.
Has there occurred a change in the leadership of this regime, or a change in
regimes,during this phase?
a
Yes
No
I
a
I
£
I
-6
TT-1~~~~-3T4T5
4-34.
1.
Yes
2.
'No
1.
2.
3.
T-2 T-3
T-10 T-11 T-12.
-8T-9
P-5---;JF
T
A.
Do outside manpower, motives, money, and other resources appear publicly
its general public) to constitute the main capabilities of this regime?
fa
T-1
1.
2.
3.
T-4
Yes
No (i.e., it is seen as an
independent movement or
force)
NA (i.e., no general
population)
4-36.
T7
I-
I
Do outside manpower, motives, money, and other resources constitute the main
capabilities of this regime (i.e., would it collapse without outside support)?
jPL-I
4-35.
I
T-6
T-5
T-4
T-3
T-2
WTI t is the level of general popular support (among its
stated objectives in this conflict?
Generally high
Generally low
NA (i.e. ,no general population
a
a
..
.......
__
_
P-
T-2
T-3
I
T-8
populace)
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
for the regime s
________
~
I-~
T-4
T
T-7
(i.e., to
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
4
P4
4-'
41
4
-4
I
14".
A
111311
-3-'
4
'4 4,'.
&
C4
4-ti
A
4
C)
.-
4.2
CC
(1
4)
41
4
('4,
4'
U r,
I
3~
'
4
-'~
K?)
A
Isles,
2
"4
I
4
'-.4
4
F)
C-
'-4
It
A
~1
""'4
-
(N
'0
Pr
'-A
1110
A-'
4-4
'.4
'P,
1,
"-I
Sill,)
444
,..1
5368
28.
4-37.
1.
2.
3.
What is the level of general popular support for
in this conflict?
Generally high
Generally low
NA (no general population)
_T_
T-l
4-38.
1.
2.
3.
T-3
a'
T
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
Y
T
T-8
T-9 LT-T-11l
.
T
2
T-12
Current attitude of local "intellectuals"toward present regime and its policies
in this conflict:
Generally favorable
Generally unfavorable
NA (no general population)
T-l
4-39.
1.
2.
3.
-T-2
T
the regime's specific policies
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
Post-dispute expectations by antagonist's general public,
by this side:
T-7
if
T-8
T-9
T-lO T-ll T-1
"victory" is
not achieved
Optimistic
Pessimistic
NA (no general population)
T-1
4-40.
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-1l
T-12
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
Effect of conflict oninternal cohesion of the general population
1.
2.
Greatly increased cohesion
Sligh t ly increased cohesion
3.
Slightly decreased cohesion
4.
5.
Greatly decreased cohesion
NA (no general population)
:t
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
/
L
-
I
Li-
4.
t
C-
r
C
K-
-
-
-I
1-
p
-
-
A
-
Q
/
I
-p
~j..
Li.
-j
- -
AT
Y
:- n- s
v
-
I
-
--
'-
-
--
W,.-i-.-4...-....T
-
P
-
-- '
-
-
ZDL
--
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V
':.y
J? u L
PI,-
-,
ol
9
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4-------------
F-
V
- *-"
p.
C-,
-
-
-
I
'
-
-
E11
-a n
I
-
c-~I
-
'
'?
-i?'
>..VK,
r
71-
C
T-
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'TT%
F1T3
A
y
ot
C
K--
C- iis
,153I
10 1p11 l-.
too
1;
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& so
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-
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0
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Llt
7
-
29.
5.
PERCEPTIONS AND POLICIES OF THE ANTAGONIST WITH
RESPECT TO THE CONFLICT
lHas this party been involved in organized violent conflict (i.e., war) with any
party other than the present adver sary within the past twenty years?
Yes
No
1.
2.
Does- this regime seekthe overthrow or destruction of the regime (or leadership)
adversary in this dispute?
5-2.
1. Yes
2.
No
T-1
5-3.
1.
2.
T-3
T-4
Does this regime perceive the following interest
the spread of its ideology?
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
as being at stake in this conflict:
Yes
No
T-1
5-4.
1.
2.
T-2
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
Does this regime perceive the following interest as being at stake in
observance of its commitment(s)?
Yes
No
T-l
TT
T-2
T
T-3
TT-4
T
T-5
T
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-10 T-ll T-12
this conflict:
T-9
T-l0 T-ll T-l2
C-
m
'
4-,-'
3~4
LI
'2
p
-'4
I
1.4
icr
'I
-4
eJ6IuSOII3BBt*SIUUSb
-v
'2
'I)
4")
"~~1
C
'-n'
"<4,-
4)
A
C
(-4
"C
4:''
Illume
30.
5-5.
1.
2.
Does this regime perceive the following interest as being at stake in this
conflict: realization of an established and on-going policy?
Yes
No
T-1
5-6.
1.
2.
1.
2.
Yes
No
1.
2.
1.
2.
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T- 1
T-12
T-2
T-3
T
T
T
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-L1 T-12
Does this regime perceive the following interest as being at stake in this
conflict: gaining of prestige?
Yes
No
TT
T-2
T-3
TT
T 5
T
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
Does this regime perceive the following interest as being at stake in this
conflict: satisfaction of pride?
Yes
No
T-1
5-9.
T-4
.
- T-
T-1
5-8.
T-3
Does this regime perceive the following interest as being at stake in this
conflict: preservation of national character?
T-l
5-7.
T-2
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
Does this regime perceive the following interest as being at stake in this
conflict: augmentation of its power?
Yes
No
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
N
I
aN
C'.
9
I"'
rn
-.2
"-a
I-i
'
Kfl
F-i
4
.EaI.tasatdIUUIIUIIIIEiiuig
43
If'
(U
~4rI
U'
Ill-)
1
N
*2
a,
It
C"
0
cy3
C
~1
'Il
q
Cr1
C"
C
4)
ID
I-
1
'j
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C.,
qj
r-~
"'1
C
-,
-(
-
"1,,.
-'
'4
1-~
31.
5-10.
1.
Yes
2.
1\O
0
Does this regim.e perceive the following interest as being at stake in this
security of ,or acquisition ofindependence?
conflict:
1.
2.
1.
Yes
No
T-7
T-6
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-l
a
T-12
T
T-4
T-3
.
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T 9
T-10 T-11 T-12
a
-
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-7
T-6
T-8
T-9
T-O T-1l
T-12
How deeply is the present regime personally committed to achievement of its
publicly stated goals in the conflict?
a
T-l
1.
2.
1 TT-2
the death)
Totally (i.e.,to
Deeply, but flexible
Slightly
Not at all (purely
expedientia 1)
5-14.
a
Does this regime perceive the following interest as being at stake in this
conflict: its continued existence?
T-1
5-13.
T-5
T-4
T-3
a
T-l
1.
2.
3.
4.
T-2
Yes
2.
a
Does this regime perceive the following interest as being at stake in this
territorial integrity?
conflict:
No
5-12.
a
a
a
I
a
T-l
5-11.
a
a
I
T-2
T-3
I
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
Does this regime regard this conflict as an ideological conflict, "holy war,"
or crusade"?
Yes
No
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-l2
a
liii
22
cr
414
4-',
'-4
liii
j,7
1'
4-
'A
144
7,
-14
(VI '-F
.,-2
CJ)
Cr
''--4
U
It
-~
1
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'W1
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4
5~
'S SI
4
Er
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'A-'
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4
SI
Elms.,
4
5'
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*'4
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s.
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5'
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4-
4
a'
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1~2
4
c-'
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4-4
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Ci;:
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4-44
44
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mill..
4-
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4-;
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ft
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311111
p
II
32.
Is
Is this regime's conduct of the conflict limited.
military capabilities, a "limited" conflict or war?
5-15.
1.
2.
Yes
No
T-1
5-16.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
A
T-3T-
-A
T- 8-9
T -7
_T-_6_
T-5
T- 10 T-11 T-12
-A-A
A
~
A
a
A
T-1
T-1
T
T-2
4
T-4
T-3
T-6
T-5
T
T-7
A
J
AA
T
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
Characterize the principal or overriding terms in which the regime has rationalized
whatever acts of violence have been perpetrated by its forces in this conflict.
(Check one.)
Moralistic ("just", etc.)
Political or historical
Legal or judicial
3,
4. Expediency ("necessary")
5. NA (no violence has occurred)
1.
2.
a
T-1
5-18.
1.
2.
T
in terms of his objective
What portion of his available militaryranower capabilities has this regime
committed or allocated to this conflict at this point?
Less than 5%
5-10%
11-24%
25-49%V
50-69%
70-90%
More than 90%
5-17.
T-2
this,
Yes
No
T-2
_a
a
_.
T-3
T-4
A
A
T.i...j,
p
T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8
T
T-9
A
A
T-10 T-Ll T-12
Does this regime feel free, given its pub1_c utterances, to accept lesser
(i.e., does it feel it
solutions than those publicly demanded of its adversary?
grave internal
itself
causing
thereby
can accept lesser solutions without
consequences?)
3 -
-
_ -T
_
0-5
- --
i----
- -
1
---
J
9
-3
3-1
e-
N-
3
431
3-3-'-
1.'--'-
49
m
--
et8bdhI
-
-
(-3
)
1)
*
4-
34
-3- -9
(F'
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I
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3+
jG
if
42
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-
32.4
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-. 3
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(4 '
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a
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---
1'
a
o
f ('40 (9
o
ru
u
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4--s
3-
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,ht
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NC'
if--I
gh
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F
in
21N
cu M0
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36 %i
ggmmamBg
f
7;
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41') ~
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mg
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3.31.
-~
34
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---
-- p
m sag
33.
5-19.
1.
2.
3.
Characterize the present outlook of the regime with respect to the conflict:
Die-hard (willing to fight
to the death to achieve
stated objectives)
Realistic-moderate (willing
to seek a negotiated
settlement or compromise)
Conciliatory (willing to
accept considerable losses
to end conflict soon)
W.
A
Favorable
Even
Unfavorable
T
T-1
5-21.
a
I
T-4
T-5
T-6
L
a
4
T-7
T-8
T-10 T-ll T-12
T-9
T-2
T
T
T-3
T-4
a
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-lO T-ll T-l2
Is the likely outcome of the conflict, if the level of commitment remains constant,
as yet obvous to this regime, or to any significant elements within this regime?
Yes
No
5-22.
1.
2.
T-3
L
Overall balance of "will" (or, determination to persist in the conflict), confronting
regimeas compared to adversary (as adjudged by this regime, at this point):
5-20.
1.
2.
I
T-2
T-1
1.
2.
3.
a
-1a
T-1
T-2
T-3
aT
T-4
T-5
T-6
T7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-lflT12
Post-conflict expectations by this regime, if "victory" is not theirs.
Optimistic
Pessimistic
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-11 T-12
ml
..
KQ.
--
A-
L-
-~
~11
--
-
--7
-& -
-
I
c.
-I
~-. -
'F
-- 1-.,
W.
1
-,
~-.,
ic
r
ed te-toryorv,
C i t Eii
(3,s,
-- I-
2
-
.
-
.
n-r
i
~'~<
-~
itn,
>r
infl
inict
distance
.-uc
~I-~
mil
1<8
'~
Xl
orer of
o
thUis
1-91-10
tiS S LrriiJry
anLag
this
S-c
S
b
antrant's
fcom Lt.s
atea
1->
a
-
S
7
or2
r
cr
'-
;
tr Cu~
Au]tonomou
-;
enemy
.-
l indeendet
PlCi
us
c
L
h s
Ome
of
to
T-8
i-o
:'-'-~
I
ne
a-
in a
advrsa'-
2.
AC
L.
,
-
Agent
I
£
91
an:
1
1K
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cin the
*
-
A
SpliTi
U~.-ZV
-
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4.5
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7
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on
aS
a
34.
5-23.
Distance in miles to the scene of the conflict from nearest border of this
antagonist (if area is within, or on border of, antagonist's territory or
claimed territory, indicate zero.):
T-1
5-24.
T-T-7
7T-2T-3T4T5
-0
T-f-
If the scene of conflict is within, or on the border of this antagonist's territory
or claimed territory, indicate distance in miles to this area from this antagonist's
capital (i.e., political and administrative headquarters):
scene of con2. NA (i.e.,
is outside these
flict
borders)
T-1
5-25.
1'
-lT
T-2
T.-3
T-
T5
T6
T7
T8
T9
Tl TT--lT-122
Does it appear to this regime that its adversary in this present conflict is
an:
(check one)
Agent or puppet of some other
t
adversary or enemy of
regime
.2. Autonomous or independent
force operating primarily
own
not wholly) on its
(if
3. Ar :mtonomous force maintained by support from
another adversary or enemy
of this regime
-- - -L
. .....
L ........
....
T-1
T-2T-3 T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
35.
5 26_.
.V
2o~
,JN
Characte-ize the general experience of this regime with formal treaty or other
legal arangements with the adversary in this conflict
Gnally
iv
u
atisfactory
aenera.
na- ti-aF
to r
n sUChl expe'rnce
with adversary)
W
T -I
-27.
I.
2.
3.
T-2
T--3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T 7
T-8
T
T-10 T-1l T-12
Speed of comunications. with the adversary:
Rapid (a matter of hours)
W,
Modeate (a matter of days)
Slow (a matter of weeks or
months)
~LL
T- 2
at
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8T-
T-10 T-l
T-12
m
5-28.
1,
2,
Reliability
of corrnunicaticns
with adversary:
High (established and
secure channels)
Low (no established channels
or security)
T7--1
T-2
T-3
T-4F T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-IL
T-12
I*
5-29
Crdility1
of communications with adversary:
Hngh or complete
Low or none
-;R-I
2
-1
-
J-
-6
T -7
T-9
Lb-
I 1 1,2
W
U3
w
35.
5-26.
Characterize the general experience of this regime with formal treaty or other
legal arrangements with the adversary in this conflict:
1
Generally satisfactory
2.
3.
Generally unsatisfactory
NA (no such experience
with adversary)
T
T-1
T-2
Rapid (a matter of hours)
Moderate (a matter of days)
Slow (a matter of weeks or
months)
5-28.
2.
T-6
T
T
T-7
T-8
TTU T-Ll T-12
T-9
T-2
1
T-3
~J.~JJL
a
A
T-4
P
I
I
£
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-5
T-6
T-7
4
I
I
a
a
p
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
Reliability of communications with adversary:
High (established and
secure channels)
Low (-no established channels
or security)
5-29.
l
2.
T-5
T-4
T-3
P
*
A
T-1
1.
3
Speed of communications with the adversark:
-27.
1
2.
3.
-
T-l
T-2
T-3
T-4
a
I
Credibility of communications with adversary:
High or complete
Low or none
T-l
T-2
T-3
T-4
--'--4
U
4-i
'K.
I -
.4-4
-A
4
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4-
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to
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-'-4
4:
7)
4-
44,,4
-4 -4
4:-
-'4
IS.:
'--
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CV
'--'4
-o
94
'-4
4-..
10
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'-4
14
i,-4
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-(Np
4:---
:4---
4;)
4--i
4
--4 424
(4-4
-4,
-'4
4
4
4-N
36.
Classify the regime's principal attempts at resolution of the conflict according
5-30
to their primary character at this point (check one):
L
2.
3.
4.
5.
Delay (no action, wait for
better conditions)
Constitutional (e.g.,
elections, etc.)
Judicial (e.g., adjudication
by impartial application
of law)
Political (e,g,, negotiation,
compromise, bargain)
Military (eg., dictation by
violence or threats of
violence)
T -
T-1I
5-31,
1.
2.
Yes
No
5-33.
1.
2.
T--3
T5
T-4
-- 6
T -7
T
T -8
Has this regime offered to resolve the conflict by cons titutional means-?
etc.)
elections, plebiscite
1-10' T-1l T-12
(such. as
aAL-
Yes
No
5-32.
1.
2.
T -2
T
T
10 Ti
-Tr6 T
- -T TT
T-2
Has this regime brought this conflict before an agency of an international organization
for its consideration?
S
T-1
T-2
6
T-T
-
T-7
T-
T-
a
T
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-l2
Has this regime indicated to the adversary that the subject (or object) of this
conflict is negotiable?
Yes
No
_
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
--
_ _A
T-6
T7T-8
T_-9 _T:1lOT-ll T-12
iJ
4
IcPt'
JP
-
ii
,711
)
5{
IC
44
44
i
KTS
4-11
lv%
1
44
f
3)
TT
i
44-
7
C
54
'
t
I
4
L~t'
U
4
-4
7
5
-t
'-
-
-
37.
5-34.
1.
2.
Has this regime made any attempt through
settlement of the conflict?
diplomatic channels to negotiate a
Yes
NoI
T2T2-oT-6
5-35.
1.
Yes
2.
No
Has this regime offered the adversary bi-lateral negotiations (or a conference)
aimed at settlement of the conflict?
T-l
5-36.
1.
2.
3.
T-2
T-3
T-5-6
T
T-8
44
-
T-9
T-10 T-rl
T-12
Yes
No
NA (none held)
5-37.
TT-
-
T-T-9
T-l
T-ll T- 2
Does this regime presently perceive escalatory or expansive action on its part as
likely to precipitate active (or further active)"Great Power"support for its adversary
in the dispute?
Yes
No
5-38.
T-4- T- 5
T-3
p
p
AA-I
T1T2T3T-
1.
2.
3.
T-4
Has this regime ever attended bi-lateral negotiations to resolve the conflict?
T-2
T-1
13
2.
T-8 I T. T 4 T-0 T-I T-12
T-7
-
4
a
-
V
a
-!_5__T-_6_ _T- 7 AT-8
a
A
I
p
a
T-9'
A
I
-l T-Il AT-1
T2
T- 10
Characterize the general public opinion of the antagonist concerning the
adversary's political institutions:
Generally favorable
Generally unfavorable
NA (no general pop'n.)
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T 8
T 9
T-10 T-11 T-12
I
4
(44
'~'
,~
4. 44
-
C)
4,.,
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'cm
I.41
4[---4
15
K
V
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NO
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44142;
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38.
5-39.
1,
2,
3.
Generally favorable
Generally unfavorable
NA (adversary has no
such institutions; or,
no gener-al population)
T-1
T-3
T-5
T-4
Generally favorable
Generally unfavorable
NA (no general pop'n.)
T-1
5-41.
1.
2.
3.
T-2
T-6
T-7 T-8
T-9
T-10 T-1,1 T-12
Characterize the general public opinion conceia ng the adversary's existent or proposed
economic institutions:
5-40.
10
2.
3.
Characterize the general public opinion concerning the adversary's social
institutions:
T-5
T
T-3
Characterize the eneral public opinion concerning
religious institutions:
Generally favorable
Generally unfavorable
NA (adversary has no such
institutions; or, no
general population)
5-42.
T-2
-1
T-2
T-5
T-4
T-3
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-l
T-12
the. adversary's
T-6
T-7
T-8-T 9
T-10 T-1l T-12
7as martial law been declared by this regime in the conflict?
14
Yes
2.
30
No
NA (no power to declare it)
A
-1T2
T-3
a
-T-4- T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-1l
T-12
49-)
4444
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5
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93.)
5$)
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39.
5-43.
Has a state of war been declared by this regime?
1.
2.
Yes
No
3.
NA (no power to declare it)
aT
1.
Yes
2.
NO
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
a
T-7
T-6
9
a
T-8
T-10 T-1l T-12
T-9
I
a
a
a
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
.
a
T-6
T-7
a
a
T-9
T-8
a
.
A
T-10 T-ll T-12
What legal.status is presently accorded the adversary's personnel by this regime?
p
T-1
1.
2.
3.
T-5
a
Citizen of power not at war
with this antagonist
Conmon criminal
Traitor or rebel
Citizen of power at war
with this antagonist
War criminal
5-46.
T-4
T-3
T-2
a
a
a
a
Does this regime generally apply the same legal standards and protections to
jural persons (i.e., legal entitites, such as citizens, corporations, etc.)
of its adversary as it does to its own?
T-1
5-45.
aa
A
T-l
5-44.
T-
T
2
aT
T-2
4
T-3
a
p
T-5
T-4
a
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
a
T-10 T-11 T-l2
Hes antagonist declared a general amnesty policy for adversary personnel?
Yes
No
NA (no hostilities)
a
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-1a
T-4
a
4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
a
a
T-10 T-ll T-12
/
"3
'-I~'
S
a
'
FORE51N
ENALJ.
1R
-tIIit-N E L
E
b
AN LST
OF
A,
INVI
D
.
S
-RS
IN THE CONFLICT
S
S
a
ird
)I
Ay
O
pa"ric
g
Dkl-
S
wn
7
'{
r
S
.,
.2.
'2]
C.
m
A.
~' ,
A.
r.
S
Curji
.4
3L.'
UKU
1
ICyL
an
i
9co
atr.d
mi<c:
lJV
A
r.
.
.74
7/
4
..
'4
'1
"'V
1.
The "great powers"
are, for our pur13ses,
the
era of the particul
during the historical
pors
*
4
c'sV
I
3.
3.
3.
A
1.1
<
3.
erwh.
ing
Case
y
4
unt
aatkaa
.tr
a
ai
S
a
40.
6.
FOREIGN OR EXTERNAL RELATIONS OF ANTAGONIST AND INVOLVEMENT
BY THIRD PARTIES IN THE CONFLICT
Note:
1. A "third party" or parties to the conflict may be any or all of the following:
(2) supra(1) international organization (i.e., League of Nations, U.N.);
security
regional
(3)
Union);
national organization (as, OAU, Pan-American
nation(s);
independent
(4)
organization (as, NATO, SEATO, Warsaw Pact);
(5) autonomous (or independent) rebel, insurgent, or guerrilla organizations,
or similar internal forces.
2.
Colonial Governments (i.e., the regime in power in the colony) are, for purposes
of this study, regarded as principals (or antagonists) to the conflict having formal
partL~o the
security and economic alliances with the metropolitan country, a tird
power.
conflict, and which may or may not presently be a "great
3.
The "great powers" are, for our purposes, the overwhelmingly dominant national
powers during the historical era of the particular case study.
£
1
maBJ
SA
-
S86
C ea i
1811h
S ell
-t-
511911
41.
6-1.
1.
2.
Does this antagonist have a formal security arrangement or alliance with any
"great power"? (Note: if, in the case of a colonial government, the metropolitan
country is presently regarded as a "great power", the answer to this question is
yes; otherwise, it is no.)
_____
Yes
No
a
T-2
T-1
Yes
No
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-10 T-11 T-12
T-9
4
T-3
T-2
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7 T-8
T-10 T-11 T-12
T-9
Is this antagonist a formal ally of any "great power"which is openly hostile or
inimical to the adversary in this present conflict?
6-3.
1~
Yesp__
2.
No
_
_
_
_
p
_
_
_
_
_
_
p
T-3
T-2
T-1
T-5
T-4
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-10 T-Ll T-12
T-9
Is this antagonist a formal ally of any "great power" which is also allied to the
adversary in this present conflict?
1.
Ye:s
2.
No
a
T-1
6-5.
a
T-4
p
-
T-1
4
a
Does this antagonist have a formal security arrangement or alliance with any
nation(s) other than the "great powers"?
6-2.
1.
2.
.
T-3
e
T-2
A
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T 1
T-10 T-1l T-12
Is this antagonist being supported or aided in this conflict by any "great power"
which is openly hostile or inimical to the adversary in this pre-sent conflict?
1.
Yes
2.
No
a#
T-1
T-2
T-3
A
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
_
2
I
1
t~li
Ii
00
'/~'
(H
'--1
2
C
111110
11
t1
'V
U)
'I
I
V.
S
Ii
miii
"A
4
miii
aim.
ii
42.
6-6.
1.
2.
Has any "great power" specifically expressed its partiality for this antagonist
(Note: if this antagonist is a "great power"
(and its claim) in this conflict?
has any other great power expressed partiality for it?)
Yes
No
a
T-1
6-7.
T-2
T-3
a
a
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-1
T-12
Has any "great power" stated that any specific increase in the intensity or scope of
this conflict at this point would result in its active intervention on behalf of this
antagonist?
.1. Yes
2. No
T6-8.
1.
2.
2.
3.
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-l 0T-l
T-12
Are there "great power" defense facilities located within the established
jurisdiction of this antagonist?
Yes
No
T-1
6-9.
T
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6 T-7
T-8
T-9
T-l0 T-ll T-12
Has any attempt been made by this regime to invoke any available bi-lateral or multilateral security arrangements on its behalf in this conflict?
No
NA (none available)
T- 1
aTT- 2
T- 3
T-4
T-3
T-6
T- 7
I
T-8T-9TT-~ilT-12
ILu
'3I
1~91
"C.
Yi
s
(N'
99
0
C)
---I
94%
-r
C'
99
K
'.9
9j1
.
C,
4.3
A9
(7~.
--. 9
9.-.
C)
00
-3
9'
ft
-i
90~
91
437
- '-.
(
li
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.3
-p
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9''
77'
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4-.-
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j
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.9.
:1
cfl$
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I
-n
kI
Ii
I
Il
I
43.
6-10.
10
2.
3.
Has any regional or supra-national security organization been consulted and asked
by this regime to play -an active role on its.behalf in the conflict?
Yes
No
NA .(none available)
T-2
T-1
6-11.
1.
Yes
2.
No
1.
2.
Yes
No
6-14.
1.
2.
T-7
a
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
T-2
T-4
T-3
T-5
T-6
a
a
4
a
.Ia
T-7
j
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
Is (are) there any third party (parties) involved in this conflict in an active
supportive role on behalf of this antagonist?
T-1
1.
2.
T-6
a
a
Yes
No
6-13.
T-5
Has an international organization been asked by this regime to play an active
role in the conflict?
T-1
6-12.
T-4
T-3
T
T-2
aT
T
T
T-4
T-3
T-5
T
T-6
T-7
T-7
T-8
T-9
a
T-10 T-ll T-12
Is an international organization involved in this conflict in an active supportive
role on behalf of this antagonist?
a
_
a
_
T-3
_
_
T-1 T-2
a
a
a
_
_
_
_ _
T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7
a
_
T-8
a
a
_
_
_ _
_
T-9 T-l T-ll T-12
Is any regional or supra-national security organization involved in this conflict
in an active supportive role on behalf of this antagonist?
Yes
A
A
A
aa
I
No
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-l
T-12
a-..
'14-4'
44
0
't14L.-4
CC'
14-'
-1 -,
''-'.4
'414
.14
'*84
ii
02
[A
Bias
(C
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~~"''4-4
U
CU
4
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4-
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as
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a ~ a.
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4444
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44
j?.
44
t *
at
44.
6-15.
L_
2,
Is any "greatpower" involved in this conflict in an active supportive role on
behalf of this antagonist?
Yes
No
TT
T-l1
Yes
No
T-l
6-17.
1.
Yes
,~
*7.*!~
2.
No
6-18.
1r
2
T
T
T-4
T-5
_No
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-3
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12~
this conflict in an active
aT
T-1a
T-2
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
supportive
A
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-11 T-L.2
Is any autonomous or independent rebel, or insurgent or guerrilla force involved in
this conflict in an active supportive role on behalf of this antagonist?
a
T-1
Is an third party providing p
behalf in the conflict?
a
A
T-2
t
Yes
6-19.
1.
2,
T
T-3
Is any "eon-great power" nation involved in
role on SeFalf of this antagonist?
6-16.
1
2.
T-2
a
T-3
T-4
T-5
l
dip
c
f
a
T-6
T-7
a2____I
T-8
T-9
T-10 Ti
T-2
T-3
I9
T-4
I
-I
Is any third party pr6viding (non-military) e
bdhalf in this conflict?
T-5
12
support on this antagonist's
a0
T-l
*
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
-I
T-10 T-11 T-12
no dc support on this antagonist 's
Yes
No
11-1
T-
T4
T-5
T-6
.1-7
T-8
T-9
T-10
-fl
T-12
..
Ni
,..
44'
CC)
N "NN
Np
4
"N
ma
'N
cm
"-I
0
N-i
4
NN'~2'7
NI
2CC
&
N"""
.4.
'INN-
''N--
K
mama
-2
v
mu
(N"'
N
N:
"N
NNN
A
N-N' N
NN'4
N"')'
"N'.
maim
SIDr
I'
N"'
f-N
N"'.'
4N
''Ni
y.
-N'
-
N
N.';
9N4
misaim
4
'cr
N:
WrN
4"-"'
NN"'
TI
N
ma
N"
ie
45.
6-20.
1.
2.
Is any third party supplying military advisory support to this antagonist in
this conflict?
Yes
No
T-1
6-21.
1,
2.
T-l
Is an
T-2
a
I
T
3.
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-9
T-8
T-10 T-ll T-12
a
T-5
a
a
£
*
T-4
T-3
a
T-6
T-7
a
T-8
T-9
a
a
Is an
a
£
T-10 T-ll .T-L2
a
a
a
T-10 T-11 T-12
a
T-2
T-4
T-3
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-9
T-8
third party supplying guerrilla troops to this antagonist in this conflict?
Yes
a
a
a
a
a
T-2
a
a
a
a
a
T-1
1.
2.
T-2
-No
6-240
T-4
this conflict?
T-1
1.
2.
T-3
a
a
a
a
Yes
No
6-23.
a
third party supplying organized conventional forces (i.e., manpower) to this
antagonist in
1.
2.
a
a
Is any third party supplying arms or military hardware to this antagonist in
this conflict?
Yes
No
6-22.
p
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
aa
T-10 T-ll T-12
If any national third party is involved in an active supportive role on this antagonist's
behalf, indicate support of third party's public for its involvement in this conflict.
(Note: if more than one :such national third party is involved, answer in terms of
to this antagonist's behalf):
the ma
contributdr
Generally in favor
Generally against
NA (no national third
party involved)
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-1
T-12
if
n
tionaI
third party is invol
ed in
aiv
supotive
roLe on this
t behalf, indicate
the type of d
ic government or political
f t
third p ty: ( No:
if more han one such national third
pt inIolved, answer in terTms of the mor
contributor to this antagn nalf
See Pa ge I for definitions
T T ese categories)
1.
Political Democracy
2.
3.
4.
5.
utelary Democracy
:odernizing Oligarchy
Totalitarian Oligarchy
T-aditional Oligarchy
i. national third
pt
LA_
:~~~4
~
6J24b
3.
fIi11
/PjO
TIf any nation-l
r
I
.i 7Y_1
third
part is involved i ni an act ive support ive role on this
antagonistS behalf, has there occurred a
cni, e. in the oolitical leadership
of rhiS ird party, or a change
in its
regime, during this Phase?
(Note: if
Ie than
one such national third pa ty
is so inivolved,) answder
in t&rms of to
contibutor to this antagonist ' s behaIf
Yes
No
NA (i.e., no national third
party involved)
24c.
I
ny
atio
:a
cr
1T
third party
Is .inv
in
1'1v
an a
a "Ft
I
.1 J
;Jq
t'
sy;
m
(ote
if
of the m
*
e
h
r c
i
.L.
e s
r
h n
tlj
.1..
I
.~h
Ao
A
I,
0
irj(
d",
.4
j
...
~
A~.
1
7.
pa tx;v
r
-4
.f>
.0
.a-~.
45a.
If any national third party is involved in an active supportive role on this
antagonist's behalf, indicate the type of domestic government or political
s.tructure of that third party:( Note: if more than one such national third
party is so involved, answer in terms of the major contributor to this antagonist's behalf. See Page 18 for definitions of these categories):
6-24a.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Political Democracy
Tutelary Democracy
Modernizing Oligarchy
Totalitarian Oligarchy
Traditional Oligarchy
NA (i.e., no national third
party involved)
.
T
aI
p
a
a
p
a
a
S
a
Yes
No
NA (i.e., no national third
party involved)
-
6-24c.
-
T-4
T-3
T-2
T-1
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
T-4.
a
I
If any national third part is involved in an active supportive role on this
antagonist's behalf, has there occurred a change in the political leadership
of this third party, or a change in its regime, during this Phase? (Note: if
more than one such national third party is so involved, answer -in terms of the maor
contributor to this antagonist's behalf.)
*6-24b*
1.
2.
3.
T3
T-6
T-5
T-7 *T-8
-T-10 T-11 T-.12
T-9
If any national third party is involved in an active supportive role on this
antagonist's behalf, indicate the orientation of the present political leadership
or ruling regime of the third party, in terms of its own current political
(Note: if more than one such national ThTrd party is so involved,
system style:
answer in terms of the major contributor to this antagonist's behalf.)
Revolutionary
Liberal
Conservative
Traditionalist/Reactionary
N.A. (i.e., no third party)
a
a
T
TT
I
a
I
1aea
a
I
liii,.~~~~
(.
mli..,
-4
IT',
C-,
a'
-'$4
p-v
jr I-
'4
-Th
-&
-~
-,
-'
-,.4
(N
miiIi.,
In,
-
'4-
46.
If any national third party is involved in an active supportive role on this
antagonist's behalf, is the cost of this support causing severe strains or dislocations in the economy -of that third party? (Note:
if more than one such
national third party is involved, answer in terms of the major contributor.)
1.
2.
3.
Yes
No
NA (no national third
party involved)
T-2
T-1
6-26.
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
If any national third party (or parties) is (are) involved in an active supportive
role on this antagonist's behalf, what percentage of the total capital investment
in this antagonist's economy represents holdings of this third party (parties)?
(Note: this question need.be answered for only that phase at which the third party
(parties) became involved in the conflict.)
1.
Less than 5%
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
5-15%
16-33%
34-66%
More than 66%
NA (no third party involvedi
or, antagonist has no
economy or economic assets
T-2
T-1
T-3
T-5
T-4
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-li T-12
6-2T, If any nonal third party (or parties) is (are) involved. in an active supportive
role on this antagonist's behalf, what percentage of the total exrts
of this
antagonist's economy is consumed or claimed by this third party (parties):
(Note:
this question need be answered onl for that phase at which the third party (parties)
became involved in the conflict,)
1.
2.
3,,
4.
5.
6.
Less than 5%
5-15%
16-33%
34-66%
More than 66%
NA (no third party involved'
orantagonist has no
exports)
I
T-1
tL-
T-2
.
T-3
A
A
j
T-4
T-5
T-6- i-7
I
T-A
T-9
T-10 T-11 T-12
-3.-i
.4
a..
t...i(
-
<13
-
-
Ta
-
hi
:~.
-
-,
i,
..
Im
7A
<s--i
-
3
I
am
CJi t
lJ
D
9
e
n-?
eT
N-OA
y
a
C
4)
7,
,''
3"C-
n
a +uC
-
-
u
uno
Ilfp
1i~
0)
'/
i)
-~I
x
-- ,.J
4.<
n;
-H
a..
Tx
~~7
C
6
9
rj
8"<
9''
.
3l'l
.
<tt'
e.
tilt
6- 31n
*
4. ~
-4.., -
(
errati
S Cice
this
0r
regime
I
-
toC a
Sh at
tI.
3
s c
I
-
2
'Rp
uSt
C
A
I
.
.
'3
-
/ '-
~
c
.1.'....
4.
r
7
-
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'~;-2
....
3
go
T-~'
V
P.12
ia
9
-
.';.~:
<1)
3
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4
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.
2
--
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4.
-
A
MR
lwip
It
47.
6-28.
Has this regime in the past been generally frustrated or gratified in making use of
available international machinery for peaceful settlement of disputes?
Generally frustrated
Generally gratified
No experience with such
J.
2.
3.
TT
T-1-2
6-29.
1.
T-47Y
T-5-T- 6
T-
T-
T9
T-0Tl
-2
Does this regime feel that available international machinery for peaceful settlement
of disputes is applicable in this con itiTE
Yes
--
.
a
a
-- A
A
T-1
6-30.
T-3
Has any thirdpart
T-2
a
T-3
T-4
a
A
T-5
T-6
a
a
a
a
9
T-8
T-7
a
a
a
-4..
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-1
offered its offices to this party to arbitrate or adjudicate this
conflict?
I.Ye sA
a
T-l
6-31.
1.
2.
T-2
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
a
T-10 T-1l T-12
T-9
A
T-1
1.
2.
T-4
a
Has any international organization (or official representative thereof) offered its
offices to this regime to arbitrate or adjudicate this conflict?
Yes
No
6-32.
T-3
a
T-3
T-2
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-8
T-7
T-9
T-l0 T-Il T-12
Has any
ontona
ranization (or official representative thereof)
offered its offices to this regime to arbitrate or adjudicate this conflict?
Yes
No
a
T-1
A
T-2
A
T-3 T-4
a k
T-5
a
T-6
a
I
T-7
T-8
I
T-9
I~
I
T-10 T-1l T-12
44
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54
'-2''
2
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.44.4
4~I
4~44
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a,
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.4~~444
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-'-.4
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(144'--4~
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4 j '~*'44
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44
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r~
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48.
6-33.
1.
20
Has any "great power" offered its offices to this regime to arbitrate or
adjudicate this conflict?
Yes
No
T-l- T-2
6-34.
1.
2.
3,
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
A
T-2
T-l
1.
Yes
2.
No
YesS
NT
Yes
No
T-2
. -T-1
20
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-9
T-8
T-l10 T-11 T-12
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-li T-12
Has this antagonist's cause in this conflict ever been repudiated or indicted by
any resolution of an international organization.
2)
1.
T-3
A
p
1.
6-37.
T-10O T-1l1 T_ 12
Has this antagonist's cause in this conflict ever been upheld by any resolution of
an international organization?
T-1
6-36.
T-9
T8
Has this regime accepted or rejected any offer by any third party to arbitrate or
adjudicate this conflict?
Accepted
Rejected
NA (no offer made)
6-35.
T-7
Yes
T-2
T-3
e
.
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
--
T-9
-
.
.I
T-10 T-l1 T-12
Has an international organization formally recognized with respect to this conflict
the violation by this antagonist of any of its obligations under international law?
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
I
~
I
C'.
44
~
4
'-"-S
"'p Lj
i
IIi
'44
'Ccfl
CN
'Ct.
'C
AI
I
4
cy!
4''
-I
'C;,:2
i;
It
.4%
4-,
0
1A
on
4)
SLk-
CI,'
.0 C'-.
.4 '1)
C,
;~ C,
C;
4',
'Al
4-f)
C..
St
.rTh
''4
I
~
1
49.
6-38
1.
2.
Has this antagonist been cited by an international organization as having committed
act(s) of aggression in this conflict?
Yes
No
6-39.
10
2.
3.
T
- _3I T
I
Has this regime accepted or rejected any settlement recommended or proposed for
this conflict by an internatjonloan ization?
Accepted
Rejected
NA (no settlement-offered)
TT1T-2
6-40.
T -a
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T_-7_
T-8-
T-_9
T-10"T-ll. T-!2
Has this regime declared its willingness to accept any cease-fire or armistice
proposed for this conflict by an inter-nationaL oranization?
*. Yes
2.
No
T-l
6-411.
10
3.
1.
Yes
2.
No
T-3
T-4
T
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
1
T-10 T- ll T-12
If an international organization has played any active role in this conflict
this regime observed its recommendations and honored its decisions?
Gene-r41ly Yes
Geneally No
NA (i.e., no active role
by such)
6-42.
T-2
T- 1T-2
T-4
-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T
has
T-11 T- 12
Have Sanctions of a
knykind been imposed by an international organization on this
antagonist for its stand in this conflict?
~
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-L
T-
T-12
r
laIlEISS
<N
Ii
~
2
-'I~c,
jtA
>1
>2
2''
C'S
steams
2
Itn
"22
.7
-r
cr
'ri
Si
Lit
2
V
r
C-
'2'>
2
(I
4-
2,'-
tI-/
(1;
CI
mama
*
ma
p
mu
IV
ug
-~
ma
-~
me
50.
6-43.
1.
Have any political or diplomatic sanctions been imposed by an international
organization on this antagonist for. its stand in this conflict?
Yes
-
a
2. No
1.
Yes
2.
No
1.
2.
T-3
I
A
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-l.
T-12
T-2
a
T-4
T-3
.
p
a
T-5
p
I
T-7
T-6
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-1
Have any military (or armament) sanctions been imposed by an international organization
on this antagonist for its stand in this conflict?
a
a
No
p
T-1
p
T-2
a.a
T-3
T-4
a
a
p
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
If a regional or supra-national organization of which this antagonist is a member
has played any active role in this conflict, has this regime observed its
recommendations and honored its decisions?
1. Generally Yes
2.
Generally No
3. NA (no active role by such)
a
T-l
6-47.
T-4
a
Yes
6-46.
a
Rave any economic sanctions been imposed by an international organization on this
antagonist for its stand in this conflict?
T-1
6-45.
a
.
T-1- T-2
6-44.
a
aI
a
TT
T-2 T-3
T. TT
T-4 T-5
A
T-6
A
T-7
A
T-8
T-9
_A
T-10 T-ll T-12
Have sanctions of any kind been imposed by a regional or supra-national organization
on this antagonist for its stand in this confict.
1.
Yes
A
2.
No
p
T-1
T-2
T-3
A
a
T-4
a
p
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-11 T-12
4
-I;
I
I
I
tug
F
Nm
-,
r
'N
I
4,-
Kr'
t
-
U>
/V
b-s
-r
TN)
C
Co
me mu mu mu mu me mu mu mm mu mu
4-
N)
~!I
[A
14)N
N
SI
51.
6-48.
l
2.
Have any political or diplomatic sanctions been imposed by a regional or suprqnational organization on this antagonist for its stand in this conflict?
a
Yes
T-l'
6-49A
1.
2.
Jjjjj...j
No.
1,
Yes
No
T-4
T-5
T-6
I
T-7
T-8
T-9
A
T-10 T-ll T
A-
A
T-1
2,
T-3
Have any economic sanction been imposed by a regional or supra-national organization
on this antagonist for its stand in this conflict?
Yes
No
6-50.
a
T-2
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-6
T-5
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
Have any military sanctions been imposed by a regional or supra-national organization
on this antagonist for its stand in this conflic
a
T-l
a
I
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T--l T-12
4"
I.
W1
-.
Vt!
*~t2
-
aw
2'
N.f
'"1
'.1
'7
1' .-
9
?
"1
!-!
''-
-%
~'~'
'''I...
,
3.
L. C!
.1.
7 7
1.
-
aP
~
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r
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to
'1'
"'.7)
a
*''2
pt,
.- ',-.
.
.
.2. Lc
.
-
't:cA.
N.4.,~
to
~
-.
I
-
-
aR
1
_
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4
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'P -3
4'4~
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7~14
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ant
&gtn.j
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:i~n
U,
t)
x-~ sands
(1
:'ecl
4.:)
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tAt
u.au'''
-S-C-
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t&-~~&L 9
7
A
4
.3N
V.
ttfli
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5~
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n.--
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h.
2
A
.1
..
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.
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. -- .,~..
f.9
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4.,
__
U.,...,
,.1,,
4.
.2
-I
S
a
-i
1-42
S
.1
a
S
52.
Note:
In the questions in the following section which, deal with specific military hardware capabilities (i.e., Q. 7-21 to 7-39), it is to be noted that weaponry "available
to all military forces in the conflict" include all such weapons currently at the disposal-of the antagonist for use or deployment in this conflict (regardless of their
source)plus all such weapons with which any supporting third party forces are equipped.
7.
7-1.
MILITARY CAPABILITIES OF THE ANTAGONIST
Total number of active (i.e., non-reserve, militia, etc.) military troops in
this antagonist's own arned (ormilitary) forces, in thousands:
1.
T-1
7-2.
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-l
T-12
Number of non-mobilized reserve or para-military force manpower available to this
antagonist, in thousands (include organized military reserve forces, civilian militia
forces, army-integrated police force, etc.):
7-3.
1.TT-1
TT-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
To what extent have the military reserve or para-military forces available to this
antagonist been mobilized for this conflict:
1.
No mobilization at all
2.
Token mobilization (less
than 10%)
Slight mobilization (10-25%)
Major mobilization (26-75%)
Total mobilization (over 75%)
NA (no such forces available)
3,
4,
5.
6.
T-3
Total manpower in the antagonist's active armed forces as percentage of the total
general population in its control or jurisdiction:
T-l
7-4.
T-2
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-L0 T-11 T-12
WV
ri.
I
I
-
2.-f
x'O
j...'~.
.4
yiJ7'Ij
>
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Sr0
S4434
-
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Li.
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4
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.
44
sp
.
7
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4
ri
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4
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4
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42
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OR
No
53.
7-5.
Number of military troops in this antagonist's own armed forces actually
committed to or engaged in this conflict, in thousands:
ST2
7-6.
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
Y 9
TL
TT
12
Number of this antagonist's own armed forces committed to or engaged in this conflict,
as percentage of the total active troops in its armed forces:
1 . T-2
7-7.
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9- T-10 T-l
T-12
Percentage of this antagonist's general population mobilized for active military
service in this conflict: (Indicate NA if no general population)
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-
T-5
T-6
T
T
TT-
T iT-7
Is there any internal threat to this regime from any adversary other than the
present one that requires it to maintain a significant part of Iit normal
7-8.
military capabilities elsewhere than at the area(c) of immediate confrontation with
present adversary?
1.
Yes
2.
No
T-1
7-9.
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-lO T-ll T-12
Is there an external threat from any real (or potential) adversary other than the
present one, that requir es this re'gime to maintain a significant part of its normal
military canabilities elsewhere than at the area(s) of immediate confrontation with
present adversary?
1
Yes
2.
No
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-li T-12
.1
1133
Ii
-.4
ion
3338
.9
4-'
ft
'"-4
44
is
.4
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K
mama
KC
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074K':
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54.
7-10,
l.
2.
if _an such internal or external threat does exist, what percentage of this antagonist's
total (or normal ) military manpower capabilities is currently being allocated
or committed to this other threat ------- (i.e,, what percentage of its total military manpower establishment is' diverted -from the present conflict thereby)?
NA (no such threat exists)
T-2
T-1
7-11.
1.
2.
3.
4.
50
T-2
1.
2.
3.
T-3
T-6
T-5
T-4
I
I
A
p
T-7
T-6
T-8
T-7
T-9
T-8
a
a
I
I
T-2
A
p
I
A
a
a
A
1
I
a
A
A.
T-1
""N
T-5
T-lO T-1l T- U.
T-9
T-10 T-1l
T-12
"Visibility" or overtness of personnel supplied by third party (or parties) to
this antagonist's cause in the conflict (i.e., degree of secretiveness in this arrangeiment between third party and antagonist);
Highly overt
Mostly overt
Mostly covert
Highly covert
NA (none supplied)
7-13.
T-4
Total number of military manpower supplied by third party (or parties) to this antagonist's cause in this conflict, in thousands:
T-1
7-12.
T-3
a
I
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
I
I
I
a
a
A
I
A
T-8
Does this antagonist expect the number of troops available to it
A
T-9
A
A
a
I
I
T-lO T-l1 T-l2
from third
party sources to:
Increase in the near future
Remain at its present level
(whatever that may be,
even zero)
Decrease in the near future
T-l
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-l10 T-ll1 T-l12
&
Big
I?
"--''4
rf,
I
t
44 A
00
in
CN:
Si
I;
lit
((4
SI
1:4
'Al
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I-?
42
I
1
.1
*
SI
C
U
-
.00
S A
in
S
I
'-4
An
S I
4-.
'--Ti
(1:1
'4-
-
a~ I
UN
I
Ia
I aI
t
I
SI
55.
7-14.
Total military manpower coimitted to cr engaged in this conflict on this side
fle. total of this antagonist s own military forces plus any military forces
surrplied by third
arty sources) in thousands:
T-1- T-2
7-15.
T 5
T-4
T-6
T-1
T-LO T 11 T 12
T-2
T-3
-
T 4T-5
T6
-7
_
-8
T-2
T-3
T 4
T-5
T-6
T-7
Guerrilla or "Special Forces" manpower in all military forces
conflict, in thousands:
T-8
_
T -9T-10 T--11 T-12
(i.e., antagonist's own
Conventional army manpower in all military forces
military forces plus all third party forces involved) committed to this conflict,
thousands:
T-1
7-17.
T-9
I_
_f
NA (no troops committed to
conflict)
7-16.
T-8
T-7
What percentage of the ttal military manpower committed to this conflict (i.e.,
antagonist's own forces Lius any third party forces) is constituted by this
antagonist's ovm military forces?
1.
2.
T-3
T-9
in
T-10 T-11 T-12
committed to this
1.
T-1
7-18.
T-2
Naval manpower in all military forces
1--213
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
committed to this
-'+15'
T-
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-1l
conflict, in thousands:
-7
T 8I-
-0
~l11
T-12
_
-__
I
hi
-
S
'-C,
4.
11uSD
-infl'
-pp
'-N,;
'.44
''4
4
iii,
4
--
4'
ri
C
.4
<4
*>2
44
r
I
col
i17
i
-
-4.
49
I
I
I
I
I
III I
a
56.
7-19.
Air Force manpower in all military forces
1-1
7-20.
T-3
T-2
committed to this
T-4
T 5
conflict, in thousands:
T 7
T-6
T-8
T 9
T-10 T 11 T-1.2
Trained medical personnel (doctors,- nurses, corpsmen) in all military forces committed to this conflict:
1.
T-1
7-21.
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
A
T-l
T-2
T-3
t
T-1
T-10 T-l1 T-12
T-4
T-5
T-6
A
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-l
T-12
T-2
AIIAIA.
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T 9
T-10 T-11 T-12
Numbers of mortars (of any size) available to all military forces on this side in the
conflict, in thousands:
T-1
7-24.
T-9
Numbeo of automatic weapons (including automatic rifles, sub-machine guns, and
machine guns available to all military forces on this side in the conflict, in
thousands:
1.
7-23.
T-8
Number of rifles available to all military forces (i.e. antagonist 's own military
forces plus any third party forces involved) On this side in the conflict, in
thousands:
1.
7-22.
T-7
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T 9
T 10 T-ll T-12
Number of anti-tank weapons (including recoilless rifles, rocket launchers or
bazookas, and anti-tank missiles) available to all military forces on this side.
lin the conflict, in thousands:
1.
T-l
T
T-2
T
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
"0
tllk
440
(S
I
1'
.. ~
-
.1
-
-
..
-.
- .
.-. A
ow
No
I.
I
I~.-
.
no
WD
57.
7-25,
Number of light cannon--cannon of caliber up to but not including 105 mm or 4.2 in.-(does not
incue mor tars) available to all military forces on this side in the
conflict:
T-2
T-1
7-26.
T-4
T-5
T-2
T-3
T-4
T5T-6
T-7
T-8
T 9
T-7
T-8
T-10 T-1l
T-2
T-l
T-3
T-4
T-5
-A
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-12
inclusive--
T-9T-10 T-ll T-1
Number of heavy cannon--cannon of caliber over 155 mm or 6 in.-available to
military forces on this side in the conflict:
1.
7-28.
T-6
Number of medium cannon--cannon from 105 to 155 mm, or from 4.2 to 6 in.
available to all military forces on this side in the conflict:
T-1
7-27.
T-3
T-9
all
T-10 T-l
T-12
Number of tanks and other armored vehicles available to all military forces on this
side ini the conflict:
1.
7-29.
L
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
N. ber of fighter aircraft, jet or prop driven, available to all military forces
on this side in the conflict:
T-l
T-2
T-3
~~4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
NW
-
'I'.~'t
C
p.
*
.
.
.-.
L.........it..,.
-C
-; -,
.
.
U-...........
i*
I
1*.
ow
C
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VItI
1~
2>
-'I I
-
.
*
*.
-
op.,
--- I
4
.. *~
.1
-
.
A
S
-
..
I
9.:
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a
--
-
I
-
W
I~U
* . .
-
-
.1-.
-
'
t-§S
-i
i-
~)
j.-j
.1 it
S
it
('9
SW
I
A
-.
go
we
-1
oa
Aw
58.
7-30.
Number of bomer aircraft, jet or prop driven,
on this side in the conflict:
T-l
7-31.
T-3
T-
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-lO T-ll T-12
Number of troop transpcrt aircraft--DC 3 or larger--available to all military
forces on this side~IK te
conflict:
T-1
7-32.
T-2
available to all military forces
Total number of
cEnilic t:
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
eet aircraft available to all military forces on this side in the
1.
T-1
7-33.
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-1l T-12
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
Number of surface-to-air missiles available to all military forces on this side
the conflict:
T-1
35.
T-3
Number of helicopters available to all military forces on this side in the conflict:
T-1
7-34.
T-2
Number of urface- to-srface
side in the conflict:
1.
T-l
T-2
dessis
T
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
available to all
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T 9
T-10 T-ll T-12
military forces on this
T-7
T 8
T-9
T-10 T 11 T-12
I~
IJII
-
'
.1'
.
'I-.
II
02
"C
t~
*1
St
I-;
hO
'3
c-f
cc.
-.4
i
aSi
It
i
ItI
59.
Number of submarines
7-36.
T-l
7-37.
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-2
T-l
7-39.
T-3
T-4
T-2
T
T-3
T
T-4
T-7
T-8
T-
9
T-L0 T 11 T-12
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-l
T-12
T-1
7-40.
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T
T-10 T 11 T-12
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T 9
T-10 T 11 T-12
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
Does this antagonist have its own nuclear capability?
I.
Yes
2.
No, and not seeking to develop or acquire one
No, but seeking to develop
or acquire one
T-1
7-41.
T
T-5
Number of motorized, shallow draft torpedo or patrol boats available to all military
forces on this side in the conflict:
1.T2
1.
2.
T-6
Number of troop landing craft available to all military forces on this side in the
conflict:
1.
3.
T-5
Number of heavy naval vessels (i.e., destroyers or above) available to all mili-tary
forces on this side in the conflict:
T-1
7-38.
the conflict:
available to all military forces on this side in
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
Is there any third party involved in this conflict on this antagonist's behalf which
has a nuclear capability?
Yes
No
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
u
,
m
I
IA
)>
a
U
,a
<N
I
I
I
I.-
a
1-
i
t
t
60.
7-42.
1.
2.
3.
4.
To what extent is this antagonist currently dependent upon sources other than its own
local. procurenent capabilities for battlefield armaments (i.e.,
infantry weapons,
artillery, etc.)?
Exclusively dependent
(almost all)
'Highly dependent
(more than half)
Somewhat dependent
(less than half)
Not dependent at all
(virtually none)
T-l
7-43.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
T-2
3.
4.
5.
T
T
T-5 T-6
T-7
T-8
T 9
T-l0 T-l T-12
Increase
Remain about the same
Decrease
Stop
NA (not so dependent)
7-44.
2.
1T
T-4
If this antagonist is at all so dependent for battlefield armaments, does it
perceive the supply as likely to:
T-1lT-2
1.
TT
T-3
T-3.
T-4
T 5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
To what extent is this antagonist currently dependent upon sources other than its
own local procurement capabilities for naval armaments?
Exclusively dependent
(almost all)
Highly dependent
(more than half)
Somewhat dependent
(less than half)
Not dependent at all
(virtually none)
NA (it has none)
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T 9
T-l0 T-ll T-12
3
5
1
-
*
2
*
I
V-N
6
I
-I
I
BI
I
I
I
I
I
g
61..
7-45.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
If this antagonist is at all so dependent for naval armaments, does it perceive
the supply as likely to:
Increase
Remain about the same
Decrease
Stop
NA (not so dependent)
I
p
T-l
7-6
1.
i~.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Exclusively dependent
(almost all)
Highly dependent
(more than half
Somewhat dependent
(less than half)
Not dependent at all
(virtually none)
NA (it has none)
7-47.
2.
3.
4.
5.
a
p
a
T-2
I
9
I
I
I
I
a
a
S
I
p
p
a
.T-3
T-4
T-5
9
a
p
a
T 6
I
I
T-7
T-8
9
I.
a
I
p
p
p
I
a
B
T~9
T-lO T-ll T-12
To what extent is this antagonist currently dependent upon sources other than its
own local procurement capabilities for air combat capabilities?
a
I
T-l
1.
I
a
a
I
a
a
1p
a
T-2
a
T-3
I
I5.
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
If this antagonist is at all so dependent for air capabilities,
the supply as likely to:
Increase
Remain about the same
Decrease
Stop
NA (not so dependent)
aa
I
T-1
T-2
T-3
I
T-4
T-9 T-l0
does it
a
T-5
T-6
:
T-l1 T-12
perceive
a
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
I
itt
lit
I
-4
i
(4
-4
-4
H
Ii
17
Iii
434
&
I
4
I
1~
~1
*
'42441
C
I
ft. A
I
~
I
~
62.
-7-48.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
To what extent is this antagonist currently dependent upon sources other than its
own local procurementcapabilities for mechanized transport capabilities?
Exclusively dependent
(almost all)
Highly dependent
(more than half)
Somewhat dependent
(less than half)
Not dependent at all
(virtually none)
NA (it has none)
T-1
7-49.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
T-2
T-3
T 4
T 5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
If this antagonist is at all so dependent for mechanized transport capabilities,
does it perceive the supply as likely to:
Increase
Remain about the same
Decrease
Stop
NA (not so dependent)
p
-
a
I
a
a
a
I
a
T-l
B
A
A
A
B
B
B
A
A
a
A
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
I
I
I
I
I
a
B
I
p
T-6
T-7
T-8
B
I
A
B
T-9
a
B.
I
B
T-1O T-ll T-12
"Visibility" or overtness of military hardware aid by third party (or parties) to
this antagonist's cause in the conflict (i.e., degree of secretiveness in this
aid relationship):
3.
4.
5.
Highly overt
Mostly overt
Mostly covert
Highly covert
NA (no such aid from
third party sources)
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
k
k~ it
i
1--'
eC~
rn
l
''S
"-.5
3-1
tI
i
'4;
lS1
1,?
1
1
1
1
63.
7-51.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Has the third party (parties) also supplied sufficient and adequate spare parts
and ammunition for effective operation of the weapons provided?
Unfailingly
Generally
Only selectively
Generally not
Never
NA (no such aid from
third party sources)
T-l
7-52.
1.
2.
3.
4.
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
T-
T-1
1.
T-3
T-2
Has third party (parties) also provided that there be adequate training of this antagonist's own mil. forces for the effective operation and use of these weapons?
Generally
Only selectively
Generally not
NA (no such aid from
third party sources)
7-53.
4
J-
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T 6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-1ll T-12
What percentage of the total budget or expenditures for all military forces and
armaments committed to this conflict is being supplied~~by or' from third party
sources?
-
T-1
T-2
I
T-3
T-I
T-4
T
T-5
T
T-6
T a
T-7
T 8 I T
T 8
T-9
T-10 T-11 T-12
t ag1Eii1|
j
al
hgiI
ejlj
iljlJ,
;v
Ii
g
gj
n
:St
to d esinate the totalty
plus those co'mLitted
question
S
in
by
Supporting
ti-ird
ls
S- de in
co;fiict by
if anly.
this
parties,
the CL
heant-
8. STATS AN0D PERFORMAGNCE OF THE ANTAGONIST'S
MILITARY CAPABILITIES
charafter antgonst'
of
neervene
pIol itiCal
ILI-- (paraSupportcive
-.
olitical
3
Neutral (apoLitical,
A;-
NA (i
Style
I.
e.,
I cuitct
ot
I-i
own mititsary forces:
power2 oiented
supp;or t role)
p oliical
iportanc-e)
no such traditions)
i to
this
~
~
~
~
~~w
-iiAry
"noits
officer corps:
Eltist (w<o iy ascriptive
criteria, as class, caste
party, eZc )
rgel y, but not
4rtr~e
asI
J.1
on S n
1
LiIT-1
a
fij4 tar
-~
*''-1
3---.,11
3;
&
sin
c
&i
I:
Id
SI
I
~
11.11111111
~
I
I
t
I
t I
65.
Characterize the unity within the officer corps of this antagonist's own armed forces,
with respect to goals and/or allegiances:
.
Unified
--
no politically sig-
nificant dissension
Factionalist --
2.
1
1
I
.I
I
I
I
politically
I
I
i
significant feuding or
dissension
T-1
8-5.
1.
2.
3.
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-11 T-12
If military manpower forces have been supplied by third party sources to this
antagonist's cause in this conflict, has this antagonist effectively relinquished
supreme command of the forces on its side in the conflict?
Yes
No
NA (no such third party
forces involved)
T-1
8-6.
T-2
Recruitment
rate
into
the military
T-2
T-3T-
from this
which military force is being added to,
T-l
7ry method of recruitMenl
1.
Volu-an teer s (vounr_-r-y)
2.
3.
Conscription (oraft)
Mercensrie
(foreJI
4. Imrsmnfre
,
T-2
T-T6
T-7
antagonist's
T-
-
-0T-11
T-12
own population
(rate
T-7
T-10 T-ll T-12
at
in months):
T-3
T-4
T-5T-6
T-8
T-9
of this antagonist's own military forces:
or
r
tra
T-1T-2 T-3 T4T5
Th6
7
T-8
T-9
T 10 T-ll T-12
I
I
I
.4
-
U,
I
I
4
4
i
.4
~
II
'I-
N
U.N.
t
-J
-4
s
h
l
- C,
11 tI Ii k
t
It
I
~
I
66.
Primary method of recruitment emplyed by thi-rdparty military forces on this side
(Note : if more than one third party is involved, answer for the major contributor):
8-8.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Volunteers (voluntary)
Conscription (or draft)
Mercenaries (foreign or
domestic)
Impressment, -force, or threat
NA (no third party forces
involved)
'-4-~
a
3.
8-10.
2.
3.
4.
T-2
T-3
I
a
T-4
a
I
T-6
T-5
a
T-8
T-7
I
I
T-9
T-l0 T-ll T-12
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
Generally good (at least
4 months, up to date
program)
Generally fair (less than
4 months, ad hoc program)
Generally poor ~(~ittle or no
formal training)
T-1
1.
I
I
I
Training facilities for this antagonist's own military officers:
8-9.
2.
a
I
T-l
1.
'
T-3
T-2
T-5
T-4
T-7
T-
T-8
Training facilities for third part officers on this side in the conflict (Note:
more than one third party is involved, answer for the major contributor):
Generwlly good (at least
4 i!onths, up to date
program)
Generally fair (less than
4 months, ad hoc program)
Generally poor~~(little or no
formal training)
NA (i.e., no third party
forces involved)
i
T-1
T-2
I
T-3
I
T-4
I
T-5
T-6
T-7
I
I
i
I
T-8
T-9
I
if
t
T-10 T-ll T-12
i
i
I
i
I
~'
Ii
I
'Cr
I
.4
'Ii
1~'-
Ci,
ii
I
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i
-4.
*
1
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u
1
4---
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n
4
-
I
S
I
F
I
I
I1 I
67.
8-1.
1.
2.
3.
Training facilities for this antagonist's own enlisted (i.e., non-officer)
personnel:
Generally good (at least
4 months, up to date
program)
Generally fair (less than
4 months, ad hoc program)
Generally poor (little or no
formal training)
T-i
8-12.
1.
2.
4.
T- 4 T-5
T-3
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-12
T-11 T-12
Training facilities for third ary enlisted personnel on this side in the conflict
(Note: if more than one third party is involved, answer for the major contributor):
Generally good (at least
4 months, up to date
program)
Generally fair (less than
4 months,
3.
T-2
military
ad hoc program)
A_
or no
Generally poor (little
formal training)
NA (i.e., no third party
force involved)
T-1
8-13.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
T-3
T-2
T -5
T-4
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
Overall balance confronting this antagonist, as compared to adversary, in terms of
military training, morale, organization, and efficienty (regardless of relative size
of orces on each side):
Very favorable
Favorable
Even
Unfavorable
Very unfavorable
__________
LLL
I
I
I
T-1
1.
I
I
T-2
I
T-3
a
T-4
I
I
I
aa
T-5
aI
T-6
T-7
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
A
£
I
A
T-8
T-9
I
T-10 T-ll T-12
I
I
IDa
hla
I'
P
A
lI
El
Ela
lIEUa
1111111111
a
68.
8-14.
1.
2.
3.
Do the military forces on this side in the conflict have adequate logistical
support to maintain efficient operations at their current level?
Generally yes
Generally no
NA (i.e., no hostilities)
T-1
8-15.
1.
2.
3.
2.
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T 11 T-12
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T10 T-ll T-12
Overall strategic military hardware balance confronting this antagonist as compared
to adversary (as adjudged by this regime at this point):
Very favorable
Favorable
Even
Unfavorable
Very unfavorable
T-l
1.
T-4
Generally yes
Generally no
NA (i.e. , no hostilities)
8-16.
8 1
T-3
Do the military forces on this side in the conflict have adequate logistical
support to expand their current operations, if they so wish?
T-1
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
T-2
Characterize
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-lO T-l T12
the military command of the forces on this side in the conflict:
Centralized (central direction
of operations)
De-centralized (autonomous
local control of
operations with minimal
central direction)
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-7TT-6T-
T-8
T-9
-10
T-1l T-12
-
-
.4..-..
-
'z--
on aLV
'
a
a,,
cx to
vv
-; C
-
.
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1
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-
3T
--
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T 7
9-8
i
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-hs . 01 mv
10 1jW1j
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wd
to11
ds
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-114
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A
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4.
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3
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.4.
.4
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.1
.
4..
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69.
8-18.
1.
2.
3.
4.
effective sanctuary (i.e.,. inviolable withdrawal areas) readily available
in the conflict area(s) to the military forces engaged on this side?
Is
Generally available
to most
forces
Available to some forces,
some of the time
Generally not available to
most forces
NA (i.e., no hostilities)
a aa
T-1
8-19.
Yes - day time only
Yes - night time only
3.
Yes - both night and day
bombing
No
NA (i.e., no hostilities)
T-1
8-20.
T-3
I
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
Is this side using aerial bombing as a tactical weapon against its adversary in
conflict?
1.
2.
4.
5.
T-2
a
2-2
T-3
T-7
T-~T5T-6
T-8
this
T-9TlT-l-2
Use of terror tactics by the military forces on this side in the conflict:
Widespread-organized
1.
Wides -ead-unorganized
2.
3. Limied-organized
4. Limited-unorganized
5. Totally or nearly absent
T-1
T-2
T-3
TZi
T-5
T-
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T -ll T-12
W
*
--
-
17-4.4
£'..
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it
.
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Zn
4
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kit
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p (c od
{re
the
b;
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9
i
this
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the
T.
T-.2
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as
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9
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o
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:
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lo
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et?
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K 3 >1 till
K
.;
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lob
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1
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4.
-
.
-
I
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.
5.
a
70.
8-21.
1.
2.
3.
Characterize the military tactics employed by the forces on this side in conflict:
Active or offensive
Passive or defensive
NA (i.e.,
no hostilities)
T-l
8-22.
1.
2.
3.
3.
T-2
Characterize
T-3
T-4
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
T--76
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-11 T-12
T-5
T-6
T-8
T-7
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
the military tactics employed by the forces on this side in conflict:
Tenacious in holding established positions against
superior forces
Yielding in face of
superior forces
NA (i.e., no hostilities)
1
T
1lT2T3
8-24
T-5
Mobile or expansive
Static or stationery
NA (i.e., no hostilities)
8-23.
2.
T-4
Characterize the military tactics employed by the forces on this side in the conflict:
T-1
1.
T-3
-T-2
T-
1
T
T -7
*-
Treatment of enemy prisoners by military forces on this side in
Good (decent shelter, food,
medical care)
Fair (reasonable shelter,
food)
Poor (no shelter, no
medical care)
Brutal (regular killing,
atrocities, etc.)
NA (none taken)
I
-
I
I
~
I
T
T
p
I
I
1
I
1-2
T-3
I
1
-
a
I
T-l
T.-1O T-ll T-12Z
the conflict:
~
I
T
-_9
T-
T-5
T-6
T-7
1-8
1-9
I
1-10 I-Il
_
T-12
I
Iii
VP
.4
"-.4
K. 4
24
If?
"I"
'"I
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4
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t
'cm
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41
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-
74.
U,
.4(
'N
I
VP
I
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ft
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71.
Treatment of military casualties suffered by the forces on this side in
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Excellent (field hospitals)
Good (extensive use of corpsmnen., hospitals in.rear)
Fair (corpsmen, no hospitals
available)
Poor (no corpsmen regularly
available, no hospitals)
NA (no casualties)
T-l
8-26.
1.
2.
3.
the conflict:
T-2
T-3
Is this side now waging a large scale
uerrilla operation or war?
T-4
(i.e.
T-5
in
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
terms of its own manpower availability)
Yes
No
NA (i.e., no hostilities)
T-1
8-27.
T-2T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-11 T-12
If large scale guerrilla operations are being conducted by this side, specify
stage or phase of guerrilla operations:
1.
Organization and consolidation
2.
Progressive expansion through
3.
action
Destruction of enemy in conventional battle (while
terror and sabotage per-
or regional base areas
s-botage, terror, direct
4.
sist)
NA (no such operations waged
by this side)
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-0
T-9
T-10 T-11 T-12
"t
IM
t
a
j
T-2 T 3 T-4
-
s
§02La
T- 6
£T5
T-7
T--8
T-9
T-10
-i
iT-1
S
1nce
r
ftvness
on
ths
of
an flflit oLis t witin
crgas
the pol
S
a
a
e
T)-
T
-p
+T Tn
T 6
/
T7
T-
T9
10
T
a
12
a
tent--r
Iary
i
o
S
of
g-nera--l
-eee
sym pathy
a
nitsw
this.anta
p-opuaceand
(Ocs:
WI
J-1C
y
-i
c-
aly
>
-5
n
1
a
2
1 T-2
T3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-10 T
T-9
T42
a
(TI
S
AY
}Ctt
T-
i--~--
3lt:
-§ .
'' LI
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t
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r
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72.
8-28.
1.
2.
3.
Intelligence organization and effectiveness of this antagonist among the general
population in the area(s) of conflict:
Generally effective
Occasionally or frequently
effective
Generally ineffective
T-1
.:8-29
1.
2.
3.
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-1l
T-12
Generally effective
Occasionally or frequently
effective
Generally ineffective
8-30.
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
Extent or degree of sympathy between general populace and this antagonist's o
military forces:
Generally sympathetic
Generally antagonistic
T-1
8-31.
1.
2.
3.
T-2
t
Intelligence. organization and effectiveness of this anta-gonist within the policy organs
of the adversary in this conflict:
T-1
1.
2.
4
4
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-l2
Extent or degree of sympathy between this antagonist's general populace and third
Party military forces involved on this side in the conflict:
Generally
Generally
NA (i.e.,
forces
sympathetic
antagonistic
no third party
involved)
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
&
&iiu
iiS
.11113
1
S
ON
S
73.
8-32.
Characterize the physical security of this antagonist's total civilian pop 'n. against
conventional attack or raids by asdversas regular military forces:
1.
High - generally secure or
invulnerable
2.
Moderate
- vulnerable only
in certain specific and
limited areas
3.
Low - generally vulnerable
4.
NA (i.e., no civilian
population)
TI
T-lT-2
8-33.
T-3'
T-4
-
T5
T
T-6
T-8
T-7
T8
9
T-9
1
-l
T-l0 T-1
TJ
Characterize the physical security ot this antagonist's total civilian pop'n. against
guerrilla attack or terror action by forces controlled by adversary:
1.
High - generally secure or
2.
Moderate
invulnerable
- vulnerable only
in certain specific and
limited areas
3.
Low - generally vulnerable
4.
NA (no civilian population)
- - I
-
_2T3_Sr4T5T
8-34.
1.
2.
T-8
T-9
T-OT-l1
T-2
Chiracterize the physical security of this antagonist's total civilian pop'n. against
accidental or indicental attack by the armed forces on this side in the conflict:
High - generally secure or
invulnerable
Moderate - vulnerable only in
certain specific and
limited areas
3.
Low - generally vulnerable
4.
NA
(no civilian population)
T-1
T-2
T___r-3
T-4
TT-T
T-89
T-
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
a I
i 1te.,
A
.4
ci
unease%
a
.g
mi3
statg
a
74.
8-35.
civilian pop 'n. against
Characterize the physical security of this antagonist's toal
intentional attack or abuse by the police or armed forces onithis side in the
confct:
1.
High - generally secure or
2.
Moderate
invulnerable
- vulnerable only
in certain specific
and limited areas
3.
Low - generally vulnerable
4.
NA (i.e., no civilian
population)
T-1- T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
I;l
I
Ii
1
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42
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1
1
1
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1
& 1
U
F
uj
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P
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111113
75.
9.
What percentage of its total industrial capacity at the end of Phase I has to this point
been lost by this antagonist due to the conflict (i.e., through destruction, sabotage,
or capture by the adver.sary)? Set T-1 equal to zero,
9-1.
1.
2.
LOSSES DUE TO THE CONFLICT FOR ANTAGONIST
9-2.
T
a
T-l
1.
2.
T
1
NA (i.e., no industrial
capacity at P I)
T-2
T-3
aT
T
T-6
T-7
aI
a
I
T-5
T-4
T-
T-10 T-1l T-12
T-9
T-8
What percentage of the total civilian population in its actual control or jurisdiction at the end of Phase I has to this point been lost by this antagonist (through
Set
casualties, capture, detection, or control by adversary) due to this conflict?
T-1 equal to zero:
-T
no civilian
NA (i.e.,
population at P I)
T-1
a
T
I
T-2
T-3
T-4
a
a
T-5
a
T-6
a
T-7
T-8
I
T-9
a
T-l0 T-ll T-12
k
i
i
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i
t
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k.
I
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I
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I
I
I
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76.
9_-
2.
Total number of this antagonist s total civilian population at the end of Phase I
hiTh have been lost to this point due to this conflict (i.e.,
lost through
casualties, capture, defection, or control by adversary).
Set T-1 equal zero:
NA (no civilian population
at P I)
T-l
9-4.
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
Total attrition rate at this point for the civilian population in the control or
jurisdiction of this antagonist:
total number of civilians lost (through casualties,
capture, defection, or control by adversary) per.month, at this point in the conflict:
1.
2.
T- 8
a
NA (i.e., no civilian
population at this point)
T-1
9-5.
2.
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
Total number of casualties (i.e., killed or wounded) for this antagonist s own
military forces, to this point in the conflict. Set T-1 equal to zero:
T-1
9-6.
T-2
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T 11 T-12
Total number of casualties (i.e., killed or wounded) for third party military forces
on this side, to this point in the conflict.
Set T-1 equal to zero:
NA (no third party forces
involved at this point)
T-1
T-2
T-T-4-
-T- 5
T-76'
T-'7
T8T-9
T1
-lT1
-
I
it
I
'c-K
S
'4--I
St
4
*
SI
4*
4-.
n
-4
II
r4
C,
I..
SI
C
4)
p
it
SI
44~4-~
44-444
.cr.
cc
4r'
t
1
4-44
11 1(fI 1
77.
9-7.
Total number of casualties (i.e., killed or wounded) for all
military forces engaged
on this side, to this point in the conflict. Set T-1 equal~~to -zero:
T-1
9-8.
Casualty rate at
casualties (i.e.,
T-2
a
T-l
1.
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-11 T-12
T-3
.T-4 T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-ll T-12
Casualty rate at this point for
art military forces on this side in
athird
number of casualties (i.e., killed or wounded) per month:
1.
-2. NA (i.e.,
no third par ty
military forces involved at this point)
9-10.
T-3
this point for this antagonist's own military forces: number of
killed or wounded) per month at TIFs point in the conflict:
T-1
9-9.
T-2
T-2
T
T
T
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8 T-9
the conflict:
T-10 T-ll T-12
Casualty rate at this point for all military forces engaged on this side in the
conflict: number of casualties (Te., killed or wounded) per month, at this point
in the conflict:
T-1l
T-2
-
T3
T-3
T
T-4
T
T-5
T-6
T
T-7
T
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-11 T-12
9-11. Total attrition rate at this point for this antagonist's own military forces: total
number of troops lost through casualties, capture, surren~der, defection, or desertion
per month, at this point in the conflict:
T-l
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10 T-1l
T-12
-
-
I
S
*~
-7ir
*I;g
A~Q
i
--.
s
iti
miii
78.
?
1.
2.
Total attrition rate at this point for third party forces on this side in the
conTctT total number of troops lost through casualties, capture, surrender,
defection, or desertion per month, at this point in the conflict:
T-IT
NA (i.e., no third party
forces involved at this
point)
P.-17 T-2
9-13.
T-3
T-4
T-
T-4
TV-5-6
8
T-7
T-8
T9
T
T-9
T-10 T-11
T-12
Total attrition rate at this point for all military forces engaged on this side in
the conflict: total number of troops lost through casualties, capture, surrender,
defection, or desertion per month, at this point in the conflict:
1.
T-1
T-2
T-3
P.
T-5
T-
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-1O T-11 T-12
78a.
VP
GENERAL REFERENCES
POLITICAL DATA
R-P
A Cross-Polity Survey, by Banks, Arthur S. and Textor, Robert B.,
Wp
MIT, Cambridge, 1963.
Available at Dewey, Widener Libraries.
POLITICAL,
ECONOMIC,
AND DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
World Handbook of Social and Political Indicators, Russet, B.,
et al,
Yale University, New Haven, 1960.
Available at Dewey and Widener Libraries.
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION DATA
A Study of War, Wright, Quincy, University of Chicago, Chicago, 1964, Second Ed.
See Appendix E, pp.1 5 5 2 -5 7.
Available at Widener.
ow
79.
REFERENCES
DEiMOGRAPHIC DATA SOURCES
(as, Religious Configuration, Ethnic Homogeneity, Racial Homogeneity,
Linguistic
Homogeneity, Literacy, Newspaper Circulation, Urbanization, Employment, Population, etc.)
Statistical Yearbooks,
by countries
These publications are put out by individual countries, and if available are the best
sources.
Incomplete collections are available in Dewey and Widener Libraries..
Statistical Abstract of the U.S.
Table #1293--Communications, newspaper circulation.
Tables #1273-1283--World summaries:
population, area, etc.
Available at Widener and Dewey Libraries.
UNESCO Statistical Yearbook 1950-1966
Available at Widener and Dewey Libraries.
The Worldr-ark Encyclopedia of the Nations
Available at Widener and Dewey Libraries.
Encyclopedia Britannica World Atlas
Contains data on population composition.
UN Demographic Yearbook
UN Statistical Yearbook
Available at Dewey and Widener Libraries.
80.
UN Compendium of Social Statistics
UNESCO, Basic Factsand Fures
All UN documents are available at the UN Document Room, Lamont Library
(Harvard).
Statesman's Yearbook
Available at Widener and Dewey Libraries.
World Population and Production
(Wcytinsky and Woytinsky,
authors)
Available at Widener Library.
An Outline of World Cultures (Murdoch, G.P., et.al., authors)
ECONOMIC DATA SOURCES
(as, Gross National Product, Per Capita GNP, Foreign Trade, Expenditures for Social
Welfare,
etc.)
Statistical Abstract of the U.S.
Tables #1273-1283--Characteristics of economies
.cclopedia
Britannica World Atlas
World Commerce and Cvernments (Woytinsky and Woytinsky,
authors)
Available at Widener Library.
International Financial Statistics
Available at Widener Library.
ime
81.
A.I.D.
Economic Data Book
Statistics
of Nati6oEa
cncounts 1950-1962
Data on expenditures for social welfare.
(call number: HA 40.15.068)
Ava.ilable at Dewey Library
TRANSPORTATION DATA SOURCES
(as, miles of highway, miles of railroad, ports, etc.)
Statistical Yearbooks,
by country
Incomplete sets available at Dewey and Widener Libraries.
Statistical Abstract of the U.S.
Table #1292-World Transportation Facilities.
-
The Worldmark Encyclopedia of the Nations
The Times Atlas of the World
Available at Widener Library.
Encyclopedia Britannica World Atlas
ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE DATA SOURCES
(as, Foreign Aid Received from U.S., China, USSR, Total Foreign Aid Received, etc.)
Internationcl
Financial Statistics
Vol
I
1948-
Available at Widener Library (call number: Econ. 4699.25)
82.
Atlas of Economic Development
(Ginsburg, Norton,
Available at Widener Library
author)
(call number: MA 86.61F)
A.I.D. Economic Data Book
CHARACTERISTICS OF GOVERM0ENT DATA SOURCES
(as,
Constitutional Structure of Government,
Characteristics of Legislature,
Percentages
of votes receive-d by parties, Martial Law, etc.)
Parliaments and Electoral Systems (Institute of Electoral Research)
Available. at Widener Library (call number: RR 4201.11)
Review of Elections, 1954-1958 (and later issues)
Available at Widener Library
(call number: Gov 18.19)
Elections Abroad (Butler, D.E., author)
Available at Widener Library (call number: Gov 2025.159)
World Commerce and Governments (Woytinsky and Woytinsky)
he Thorldmark Enc lojedia of the Nations
The Statesman's Yearbook
Goude's Atlas
Available at Widener Library
No
83.
FOREIGN POLICY DATA SOURCES
(as, Security Arrangements, Relations with International Organizations, etc.)
Statesman s Yearbook 1948-1966
The Worldmark Encyclopedia of the Nations
MILITARY ASSISTANCE DATA SOURCES
Statistical Abstract of the U.S.
Table #350-Military Assistance Program--Value of Programs and Deliveries,
MiLitary Assistance Facts (Dept. of Defens e
1950-1965
Annual_Rport)
The Strategy_of Subversion:_Manipula ting the_ Politics
_ __of Other Nations (Blackstock, P.W. , author)
_
Dated 1964.
Available at Cambridge Library (call number 327.1/B567s)
Russian Foreign Policy (Lederer, Ivo J.,
ed. 1962)
Article entitled "Military Influences and Instruments,"
pp. 2 4 3 -2 77.
A historical
survey of Soviet military aid to foreign governments and insurgents.
"Regional Stability and Weapons Transfer: The Middle Eastern Case"
Fall, 1965,
pp.714-7 2 8 )
"Moscow's Export Arsenal"
(East_Eoe,
Vol. 13, No. 5, May 1964)
(ORBIS, Vol. IX, No. 3,
84.
MILLITARY CAPABILITIES DATA SOURCES
Statesman s Yearbook
Jane s Fighting Ships
Last year s copy availabLe at Center for International Studies (M.I.T.).Library.
Back copies and current edition at Engineering Library, M.I.T.
Jane's All the World's Aircraft
Encyclopedia Britannica Yearbook
Contains size of navy, airforce, and army by nation.
Adelphi Papers--Institute for Strategic Studies
MOBILIZATION AND CASUALTY DATA SOURCES
(as, Percentage of Population Mobilized, Number of Casualties, etc.)
UN Demographic Yearbook
Keesing's Cont
World Almanac
Whi taker Is Alr~anac
Archives