GRADIENT INDICES AND THE STRUCTURE-PERFORMANCE RELATIONSHIP Hugo Pedro Boff (UFRJ/Brazil) hugo@ie.ufrj.br ABSTRACT T h i s p ape r add re ss es an old but int ere sting qu esti on: h ow to d efi ne a n ind ex to me asu re indu st ry pe rfo rman c e in ma rk ets whe n p rodu cts a r e d i ff e re n t i at ed an d f i r ms h av e d i f f e r en t l evel s of e ffi ci ency . In th e an aly si s o f b ene fi ts-co s ts of p olicy in t erventi ons in the p rodu ct sp ac e, Dansby a nd Wil lig , 1979 (DW ) used st anda rd met ri c s t o t rack t he soci al c ost s o f th es e i nte rventi ons and der iv ed perfo r ma n ce g radie nt in di ces ( PGI ) ac co rdi ng to th e met ri c u sed . Ho wev e r, th ei r indi ce s fai l to ac count a dequ at ely fo r th e p erfo rman ce e ff ect s of ch ang es in th e mark et st ru ctu re of diff erentiate d i ndust ries. Fu rth er, th ey a re un able t o anti ci pat e tha t th e do wn siz e of a fi rm may be re co mme nd ed , in so me c ase s, f ro m a so cie tal st andpoi nt . In this pap e r, we use a g enerali z ed Euc lide an metri c al ong with effi cien cy weight s enabl ing th e regul at ory ag ency to id ent ify "p ri ma facie " fi rms a nd di re cti on s th at should d riv e th e in t erv enti on . W e re lax a lit tle th e o rigin al DW a s su mp tions on the so ci al welf are fun ctio n and assu me t h at i t i s pseu do conc av e a nd th at it s g radi ent i s p ropo rtion al to t h e m ar ket v alu e of p rodu cti on . Th e i mp li ed PGI is a f un ction of ma r k et p r imi tiv es . T he s t ru ctu r e -p erfo r man ce r e lation s hip i s t h en analy z ed und e r sp ecifi ed deman d fun ction s in ho mog ene ous and di ff e renti at ed p rodu ct mark et s. In th e ex e rci se , sev eral inte resting result s e me rge: (i ) Th e diff ere nc e b et ween th e Hi r sch amnn-Her f ind ahl ind ex and th e PGI app ea rs as a me a su r e of t h e p e rfo rma n ce o f v a ri et y; (ii ) Imp rov ed t echn i cal effi ci en cy of the high (lo w) pe rfo rmi ng fi rm reduc e s (in c rea se s ) indu st ry pe rfo rman c e . (i ii ) Th e do wn sizing eithe r of t he l a rg est o r th e small est fi rms i s account ed fo r wh en th e go od s a re too li ttle diffe rent iat ed . K ey wo rds : Pe rfo rma nc e, economi c su rpl u s, mark et st ru ctu re, p rodu ct di ffe rent i ation . J EL: D63 , L11 , L4 0 . I - INTRODUCTION The static performance of an industry is usually analyzed by considering the firms' profitability and total welfare. For theoretical reasons, most of the attention is directed to price-cost margins. However, the allocative and productive efficiencies of firms evolve within a market structure which, ideally, is composed by many sy mmetric firms. Thus, a good performance measurement should tie together the size distribution of firms and their relative contribution to the economic surplus. 2 The main attempts to build performance indices were by Dansby and Willig(1979) and Blackorby, Donaldson and Weimark(1982). The latter paper presents an axiomatic approach to focusing on the theory of equivalent numbers. This paper elaborates on the Dansby and Willig ( DW) approach . DW compare the benefits of policy interventions in the production space, with the social costs of these interventions. In their approach, performance is measured, at the industry output vector q , by the instantaneous rate of * change in total surplus along an optimal path q (t ) of the firms' product vector. The marginal benefits are derived from the Marshallian surplus function V and assumed as proportional to the price-cost margins. A metric is used to bound the size of the output adjustments that are feasible. The emphasis is put on the Euclidean metric which they presume to track social costs more adequately. The index obtained is: Φ= ∑ λ n i =1 2 i ,where λi = ( Pi − φi' ) / Pi is the price-marginal cost of firm i and n is the number of firms. The higher the industry performance is, the lower the values of Φ are, meaning that the performance improves when prices are closer to marginal costs. For homogeneous product industries, DW show that, under different behavior assumptions, the performance gradient index (PGI) is directly linked to well-known concentration indices like CR and Hischmann- Herfindhal (H) indices. One of the main shortcomings of the PGI is that it cannot be used to rank different welfare levels. More precisely, if Φ A < Φ B we cannot say that the allocation qA is better than the allocation qB in the sense V (q A ) > V (q B ) ,unless these allocations are taken along the optimal path q * (t ) . Moreover, Lerner indices are not good measures of the industry performance when the goods are differentiated and the firms' costs are asy mmetric, as we will see below. 1 Nevertheless, the DW approach offers to economists a rich framework to make theoretical analyses of the structure-performance relationship. Indeed, 3 the inverse demand Pi and the cost functions φi depend on preferences and technology, so that the performance measured by Φ can also be viewed as a function of market primitives. On the other hand, as DW pointed out (p.257), Φcan be interpreted as a local indicator of the potential benefit-cost ratio of government intervention. Therefore, by analyzing the behavior of the index under different parameter values of preferences and/or costs, we can infer which are the market conditions under which local interventions in the planned production of firms are beneficial the most. This will be, precisely, the main focus of the present paper. DW close their 1979 paper suggesting that, besides the firm behavior, a key factor commanding future research would be the social costs of policy interventions. Curiously, thirty years later, their challenge remains unmatched and, at our knowledge, no further research on the issue has been published. In the next section we outline the main limitations of the indices derived from the metrics used in the DW paper. Then, after a brief discussion on the intervention costs, we will introduce in Section III a generalized metric along with efficiency weights to track these costs. The welfare gradient is assumed to be proportional to the gross revenue of firms rather than to net revenue. Next, in Section IV we analyze the structureperformance relationship under specified demand functions in homogeneous and differentiated product markets. This exercise identifies conditions under which several interesting results emerge. In particular, a measure of the performance of variety in the market is obtained by taking the difference between the PGI and the H-index. The performance of technical innovations is addressed in Section V. We found out that improved technical efficiency of the high (low) performing firm reduces (increases) industry performance. In Section VI, a summary of the main results concludes the paper. II- METRICS, BEST DIRECTIONS AND COSTS DW point out that "...the most appropriate metric is the one most closely related to the costs of the governmental actions required to effect the 4 movements" (p.250). Next, they state (p.257) that the metric assign distances to various output changes that should be viewed as monotonically increasing with the intervention costs required to effect the changes. But which costs are these? The authors did not detailed them, but one might think that they are of a composite nature and should include not only the social value of the output changes but also the agency costs of coordination of the firms’ quantity adjustments, informational costs, and other expenditures needed to enforce the proposed changes and support the new market configuration. In their article, DW derive the PGI under three different metrics: (i) the standard Euclidean metric applied to the present value of the size adjustments, which generates Φ; (ii) the standard Euclidean metric applied to the percent output changes; (iii) the city-block metric with base-price weights. The Euclidean and the city-block metrics treat symmetrically equal valued adjustments in the firms of disparate sizes. The second metric applies when it is socially more costly to effect a large than a small percentage change in the output of a firm. This implies that, for a unit distance, it is costly to adjust the quantity supplied of a small than of a large firm. 2 The standard metrics mentioned above treat symmetrically all firms. So, in assessing the intervention costs, the differences in the firms’ efficiencies are not tracked on and, as consequence, the social value of the proposed output changes are not considered. Further, the orthogonality of these metrics allows the public agency to contemplate the allocative dimension of costs only, not its competitive side. However, the agency costs to coordinate the quantity adjustment of firms are important in many situations and deserve more attention. The consequences of ignoring the contribution of firms to the economic surplus and the costs of coordination in the competitive setting are enhanced by analyzing the behavior of Φ. The comments below also applies to the indices derived from the other metrics presented in the original DW paper. (i) Differentiation intensity. Consider the linear representative consumer model, in which the suppliers of differentiated goods maximize profits. At the sy mmetric equilibrium, whichever strategic variable they chose, prices 5 are lower when the goods are more standardized than when they are more differentiated. Therefore, as the differentiation parameter increases, if marginal costs are constant, the index Φ reduces, so that the net benefits of an optimal policy intervention are maximized when the goods are perfectly differentiated. However, the economic theory suggests instead that there is a nonmonotone relationship between the aggregate performance and the differentiation intensity. See Lancaster(1979); Scherer and Ross(1990,600607) and the subsequent literature. In the representative consumer model, when the differentiation of goods increases beyond its optimal degree, the net surplus of consumers is progressively eroded by increasing market power of firms. (ii) Best directions. The standard Euclidean metric treats sy mmetrically equal valued adjustment d ( Pi qi* (t )) / dt |t =0 = λi / Φ sizes so that the best directions are all positive as long as the firms' prices exceed their marginal costs. This means that, in all relevant cases, increases in the supply of all firms are virtually recommended. Such prescription is obviously restrictive, since it excludes cases in which, the horizontal divestiture or even the downsizing of a firm are recommended from a social point of view. (iii) Cost efficiencies. The equilibrium analysis of the linear Cournot market with product homogeneity or the linear Bertrand market with symmetric product differentiation, both show that if a cost economy is obtained by a large and efficient firm, concentration and total surplus both increase. Yet, if the cost reducing firm is small and inefficient, concentration reduces and surplus increases and thereby, there would be less incentive for a public intervention in the industry. However, if we calculate Φ at the equilibrium points, we may find that the PGI increases and hence, the net benefit of the intervention increases, in both cases. In this paper we will show that a better tracking of the intervention costs is obtained if the distance function accounts also for the relative position of firms in the market structure. As we noted before, the social costs of the intervention are viewed as depending on the efficiency of firms and the competitive setting. 6 Firstly, for an adjustment of a given size, the costs to intervene in the planned production of a large and efficient firm may be higher than those incurred in taking the same action on a small firm. This conforms with the common sense that only inefficient firms deserve the public scrutiny. Further, monetary compensations, subsidies, or informational costs to unveil firm's marginal cost, for example, may be high when the firm is large and efficient. Second, if it is true that cases where competition is insufficient should be first to fall under scrutiny, then the intervention cost function of the regulatory agency should put a higher weight on the quantity adjustments pointing at the competitive directions then at the noncompetitive ones. So, when a simultaneous adjustment in the production plan of two firms is recommended from a social standpoint, the intervention would be costly if the goods supplied by these firms are strongly substitute. This is so because the fierce competition among the producers hampers the agency efforts to harmonize social and private interests. On the contrary, if the goods are only weak substitute one each other, then competition is likely soft, so that the proposed change would be more easily implemented with low costs of coordination to the agency. III – A GENERALIZED INDEX. We introduce now d ω (q, x) = ( x − q )' Σ( x − q ) a generalized Euclidean metric , where Σ is a positive definite and symmetric (p.d.s.) matrix, with nonnegative entries σ ij . Such metric sums up all orthogonal and non orthogonal projections of individual distances. According to the rationale of the intervention costs, we will define ahead the efficiency weights generated by each individual firm, which are then used to weigh the direct and cross terms of the distance. By this way, the allocative and the competitive dimensions of the intervention costs are both represented in the metric. 7 In order to obtain the PGI under the above metric, we start with base-price D p = diag ( P1 ,..., Pn ) weighted output adjustments, as DW did. Let the diagonal matrix of be the market prices and q = (q1 ,..., q n ) the present industry output vector. For a budget of a given siz t > 0 , the optimal production path q * (t ) maximizes d ( D p x, D p q ) ≤ t 2 the welfare function lim 2 t →0 . The PGI is defined by V ( x) under the restriction dV (q * (t )) dt . In the DW paper, the welfare gain of a marginal increase in qi equals the mean revenue of good i ∂V ≡ Pi (q) − φ i' (q i ) = λi Pi (q) net of marginal costs, that is: ∂q i . Then, by using the envelope theorem, the above limit is: 3 Φ ω ≡ λ ′Σ −1λ Where λ ′ = (λ1 ,..., λn ) . Mahalanobis distance (1) Φω When Σ is a matrix of dispersion, between 0 and λ, with scale is the Σ −1 matrix (Mahalanobis,1936). Also, Φ ω gives the greater increase in welfare obtained from the intervention d (q, x) = ( x − q )' Σ −1 ( x − q ) at q, under the conjugate metric . Notice that the standard index is a particular case of Φ ω when Σ = I . Moreover, all six propositions derived from the standard index Φ in the DW paper also apply to the generalized index Φω with the metric d . 4 The vector of best directions D ≡ [d ( D p q * (t )) / dt ]|t =0 = Σ −1λ / Φ ω of the adjustments is here: . Differently from the standard case, the direction of a price weighted output adjustment of any good i depends on the profitability of all firms.³ Indeed, the i th component of the direction vector is Di = σ i λ / Φ ω where σ i denotes the i th row of Σ −1 . Notice that some 8 directions may be negative, because there is components of σ i that are negative. 3.1 Efficiency weights and Intervention costs From now on, the matrix Σ , which will be written as Σ = nΩ , where Ω is a normalized matrix whose entries ωij are calculated from the inverse demand P function for each good i , i minus the marginal cost function weights are nonnegative and sum 1. φi' . The Let Wii be the Marshallian surplus calculated from a straight line integral under the price - marginal cost from 0 to qi . In the homogeneous and differentiated function for good i , product cases, we have, respectively: qi Wii Px Qi qi i xdx 2a ; Wii P i x;q i i xdx 0 where 2b 0 Q is the total output, Qi = Q − qi and q−i = (q1 ,...qi −1 , qi +1 ,..., qn ). For the cross weights (i ≠ j ) consider the line integrals for the homogeneous and differentiated product cases, respectively: qj qj Wij Px Qj i q i dx 3a ; Wij P i x;q j i q i dx 3b 0 0 The elements of the matrix Ω of weights .The weight are defined as: ωij = Wij / ∑ij Wij ωii is an allocative measure of the social efficiency of firm i when it supplies qi . The cross weight ωij is a measure of competition in j consumption between goods i and , in the sense it accounts for the amount of change of the firm’s i share in total surplus as the consumption of good j q increases from 0 to the present amount j . 9 In order to have a closer view on the role of these weights in social costs, consider the money value of the distance between the d ω ( D p x, D p q ) = ∑ nω ij ij Pi Pj ( xi − qi )( x j − q j ) For i = j , nω ii Pi ( xi − qi ) 2 2 is the i th outputs x and q : . square component of the social cost, when the actual output vector q adjusted to x . Given a unit distance, a higher weight is put on the direction of the more efficient firms that is, those having higher share ωii of the Marshallian surplus. The share ωii is expected to reduce as the good i becomes more and more substitute to the other goods. The idea behind this effect is that “wrong” interventions are penalized: the more efficient a firm is, the less it needs intervention. For the cross term nωij Pi Pj ( xi − qi ) ( x j − q j ) , assume first that ( qi , q j ) lies on the rayon vector pointing to the optimal direction. Then, the maximu m welfare criteria will prescribe a quantity move in the same direction for both goods i and j . The costs to coordinate the change are higher when the goods are more substitute because the producers are engaged in harsh competition. As a consequence, the costs of the agency to enforce the change are higher. On the contrary, if ( qi , q j ) lies outside the rayon vector through the optimal point, the optimality will prescribe a quantity increase of one x < qj good, e.g., xi > qi and a reduction of the other, j . Now, costs reduce with increasing competition because a higher substitution between goods i and j makes the quantity adjustments easier. The agency costs of coordination will be lower and a transfer pay ments scheme between winner and losers may be set up in this case. Notice that our definition of the matrix Σ assumes that the square distance equals n times a weighted mean of individual square distances. Such formulation implies that for a fixed mean adjustment per firm, the total cost of the public intervention increases with the number of firms under scrutiny. This complies with the perception that heterogeneous characteristics of firms 10 will likely prevent the public authority from obtaining economies of scale and scope in the regulatory activity. 3.2 The modified performance index In order to analyze de behavior of the index Φω = 1 n λ ′Ω −1λ , we need, of course, to make assumptions on the inverse demand functions calculating the weights ωij . Further, the price-cost margins Pi for λi , are not directly observable and need to be estimated. A natural way to do this, as DW suggested in their paper, is introducing additional assumptions on the behavioral mode of competition in the industry. For example, if si = qi / Q stands for the quantity market share of firm i and ε is minus the price- elasticity of the demand, Cournot equilibrium for homogeneous product λi = si / ε . Equilibrium in differentiated product markets, market leads to requires λi is a decreasing function of direct and cross-price elasticities of the demand. However, that will not be the way we go through in this paper. First, we want a performance index that enables us to analyze the structureperformance relationship independently of any assumption on conduct. To this aim, we need an index that relies uniquely on the parameters of market primitives and on observables, that is, the market shares s = ( s1 ,..., s n ) , the industry output Q and the number of firms n . Second, as we noted above, price-cost margins are not good indicators for the industry performance, so that it seems to us more advisable to modify the assumption DW made on the welfare gradient. Given the diagonal matrix of prices Dp , and a social welfare function V ∂V / ∂q ≡ D p z of quantities q , the gradient vector is: where z is some vector function of q . DW takes the objective function V as the Marshallian surplus function and its gradient is defined as surplus net costs, that is: z = λ . 11 In this paper, V is assumed to be any suitable social welfare function of quantities q . It needs not be made explicit, since the social benefits are measured at the margin. However, we will assume V is C , increasing in 2 qi ; i = 1,..., n and we relax the original concavity assumption by assuming V is pseudoconcave over an open and convex neighborhood U ⊂ R+n of q . 5 Further, while net surpluses are used here to weigh the value of output changes, the gradient of social benefits is assumed to be proportional to the gross revenue of firms, that is: ∂V / ∂qi ≡ Pi qi / Q . From this assumption, the marginal benefits obtained from an increase in qi is larger (smaller) if the market of good i generates larger (smaller) revenues. Further, other things equal, the benefits of quantity increases diminishes for all goods, when the market size Q increases. The gradient assumption and the pseudoconcavity property assumed for V at q ensures that, if ∑ n j s j Pj ( x j − q j ) ≤ 0 , then V ( x1 ,..., xn ) ≤ V ( q1 ,..., q n ). So, a meaningful effect describing the underlying societal preferences is obtained: higher social values are assigned to output vectors whose market weighted mean value are larger. 6 Further, the pseudoconcavity property of V and the convexity of the constraint, both ensure that the first order solution q * (t ) is a global maximum path on the constraint set. 7 Thus, the performance index used from now on is defined by Φ ω 2 evaluated at z = s , that is : Πn = If 1 s ′Ω −1 s n (4) ς stands for the parameters of preferences and/or costs, the index Π n ( s, Q, ς ) in (4) gives the instantaneous rate of the welfare change expected from an optimal change in the firms' supply, when the market conditions are represented by the triple (n, s, Ω(ς )) . 12 General properties of Π n 1. Sy mmetric conditions should generate the best industry performances. Π n fulfils this requirement. Indeed, under sy mmetric preferences and costs, and equal market shares si = 1 / n ; i = 1,..., n , we prove that Π n = 1 / n . 8 A rather intuitive argument is used to set that deviations from the symmetric case lead to values of Π n larger than 1 / n . 2. Since Ω is p.d.s., there is a linear orthogonal transformation of market shares allowing one to give a canonic representation to Π n . 9 Moreover, the index can also be written as a mean of squares of all weighted concentration ratios Ck ; k = 1,..., n . 1 0 Performance evaluations and best adjustments Let M n ( s ) ⊂ {s} × R+ × R k be the set of structural conditions generating a p.d.s. matrix of efficiency weights Ω under market shares s and industry output Q . A triple ( s, Q, ς ) is said measurable if it belongs to M s ( s ) . For measurable changes in the market primitives, from ς to ς * , the industry performance effects are evaluated by : Π n ( s, Q, ς *) − Π n ( s, Q, ς ) . The best directions Di = s′ω i / n Π n implied by the modified index in (4) are: ω i is the i th column of Ω −1 . Under sy mmetric , where preferences, costs and market shares, one can check that s ′ω i = 1 and Π n = 1/ n . This implies Di = 1 / n , for all i . Thus, from a societal standpoint, a firm i may be thought as high performer (low performer) if Di ≤ 1 / n ( Di > 1 / n ) firms to the intervention. . These are the least (the most) likely candidate 11 13 In the next section we will analyze the behavior of the modified index obtained under standard market demand functions in the homogeneous and differentiated product cases. The functions are chosen in order to obtain explicit expressions for the efficiency weights. In a first step, the efficiency weights are calculated from the consumers' standpoint. This enabled us to obtain weights that are independent of the output level Q . By this way, under quasi-linear preferences and symmetric differentiation, the efficiency weights obtained show a meaningful overall efect of the industry concentration on the metric and hence, the social costs. As the Hirschmann-Herfindhal index increases, the costs of the public intervention reduces and hence the net benefits derived from that intervention increases. Then we analyze the behavior of the generalized index and the best directions Di as a function of the differentiation intensity. A demand linearity assumption enables us to use the index Π n to compare one each other, the net benefits of local interventions in homogeneous and differentiated product markets. IV - STRUCTURE-PERFORMANCE RELATIONSHIP Throughout this section, the efficiency weights are calculated according to a consumers' criteria. This means that marginal costs (2a,b) and (3a,b) are replaced by price φi′ in the formulas P (Q) in the homogeneous product case (2a and 3a) and by the product price Pi (q ) in the differentiated product case (2band 3b). The index obtained, noted hereafter Π , is a suitable market performance c index, since it only depends on the market shares and the preference parameters, not on technology and costs. 14 3.1 Homogeneous goods In this case, the goods are perfect substitute, so that the cross terms Wij can be neglected from the consumers' standpoint. 1 2 There is no agency costs to coordinate the output changes. Only allocative costs are present. Then, if Wi c is the consumer surplus obtained from (2a) by replacing the marginal cost ωic = Wi c / ∑ j =1W jc by the price level P (Q ) , the surplus shares will be: ; n i = 1,..., n . The matrix of surplus weights is diagonal in this case: Ω c = Diag (ω1c ,..., ω nc ) . So, the formula (4) gives: Π cn = 1 n si ∑ ( ) si n i =1 ωic (4) At the market equilibrium, the firms' profit margins are a function of market shares and demand elasticity. Usually, high elasticity entails a fragmented market structure in which consumers have ease to switch their demand in response to changes in relative prices. In the two exercises made below, the market shares are held constant as the elasticity parameter changes. In the first, the demand function models a market for a nonessential good. The reservation price is finite and another good is presumably available outside the market. While inside switching is not allowed, the market performance worsens as the price-elasticity increases because the benefits of the intervention increases when the consumers are more and more sensitive to the price changes. The second exercise models a market demand for an essential good. The reservation price is infinite and there is no outside good. In this case, the market performance improves as the elasticity parameter rises because the benefits of an optimal intervention falls with the ease with which consumers could effect the switch from one seller to another. When the demand becomes perfectly elastic both indices converge to the same value Π cn ( s ) given in (6). Of course, under the same market conditions ( s, ς ) , the nonessential good market outperforms its essential good counterpart. 15 Example 1(nonessential good): Consider the market demand function P (Q ) = α − β Q demand is linear when on α β and ρ ; α , β , ρ > 0 . The ρ = 1 . The surplus shares in this case do not depend ρ: but only on the elasticity parameter n ci 1 s i 1 s i 1 1/1 j1 1 s j 1 n . Thus, by replacing the weights in (4) leads to: n 1 s j 1 n n 1 j1 s 2i c n s, 5 i1 n 1 s i 1 s i 1 1 ρ , a perfectly fragmented market, si = 1 / n , or Notice that, for every monopoly ( n = 1) both lead to Π m ( n , ρ ) = 1 / n for all c 1 ρ . By keeping market shares constant, one can show that Π n is a decreasing function of c ρ → 0, the surplus ωic share tends ρ . For to: n oi s i 1 s i ln1 s i / j1 s j 1 s j ln1 s j Substituting that value in (5) leads to an upper bound for on s n s j 1 s j ln1 s j j1 n n i1 Π cn ( s, ρ ) : s 2i 6 s i 1 s i ln1 s i Therefore, if the demand becomes more elastic, i.e., if ρ decreases to 0 while the size distribution is held constant, the market performance is Π on ( s ) . At that point, the consumers are perfectly elastic to price changes and, given s , the market performance is at its worst. worsening to the level For the monopoly case we have: lim Π on (1 / n) = 1 n →1+ ,and we can check that 16 Π on (1 / n) = 1 / n , for n ≥ 2 . Notice that Π on ( s ) decreases as the market fragmentation increases. Taking ρ → ∞ , the surplus share ωic tends to the market share si . Substituting that value in (5) yields a lower bound for cn s 1 n Π cn ( s, ρ ) : 7 Here, the demand is perfectly inelastic, and the performance is optimal irrespective of market shares. This shows that even highly concentrated markets can achieve optimal performance levels if the consumers are not sensitive at all to price changes. Example 2(essential good) Consider the constant good: P (Q) = AQ index, say Indeed, δ elasticity demand function for an essential ; A > 0 ; 0 ≤ δ < 1 .This demand generates a performance − Π cn ( s, δ ) , which overvalues the indices of the previous example. the use of (4) leads to n ci 1 1 s i 1 s i 1 / n 1 j1 1 s j 1 can check that the index increases with upper bound, say weights: . Using (4), one δ . For δ → 1 , the index have a Π *n ( s ) which is obtained using (4) with welfare weights: n s i ln1 s i /1 i1 ln1 s i converges to the . For δ → 0, the weight ωic ωio of the previous example, so that the lower bound equals Π on ( s ) , given in (6). 17 Performance and Concentration : The Hirschmann-Herfindhal index H ( s ) equals i.e. ∑ n i =1 si2 . For linear demand, ρ = 1 in example 1 one obtains: ωic = si2 / H ( s) (8) Therefore, Π n ( s,1) = H ( s ) . The identity (8) states that the stake of each c firm in the consumers' surplus equals its weight in concentration. The best Di = directions are: H /n si . Thus, under demand linearity, i is a high 1 n performer firm (low performer) from the consumer’s standpoint if the square of its market share is higher (lower) than the industry mean, that is, if si2 ≥ H / n (≤) . See Section 3.2. Proposition 1: For a homogeneous product market industry, the H-index is a market performance index from the consumers’ standpoint if and only if the market demand function is linear. Proof: See Appendix The figure (1) below depict the values of the index given in the examples 1 and 2 as a function of the inverse of the elasticity parameter for a market composed of + n = 5 firms with market shares s = (.4, .3, .1, .1, .1) with H ( s + ) − .28 . FIGURE 1 As the Figure 1 shows, under the same market conditions, the nonessential good market outperforms the essential good one, as long as the price elasticity of the demand is finite. Their performance coincides if the demand is infinitely elastic to price changes. 18 4.2 Differentiated goods According to Bain (1968), besides entry conditions and concentration, product differentiation is an important dimension of the market structure. Location and discrete choice models gave a theoretical evidence of the socalled differentiation principle: firms want to differentiate to soften competition. In the representative model, convex consumers can long for diversity, but not too much; as the goods’ differentiation augments, their net surplus tend to be nullified by increased market power of firms. So, besides the number of varieties, a performance measure must be sensitive also to their specifications. Example (linear demand). A representative consumer has quasi-linear preferences and maximizes a quadratic utility function. Assume that the following demand system obtains : Pi (qi ; q−i ) = α i − 2 β i qi − 2γ i (∑ j ( j ≠i ) γ j q j ) and where β i > γ i2 ; i = 1,..., n . Goods i j are substitutes or independent according to γ i γ j > 0 or γ i γ j = 0 . By replacing marginal costs φi' by prices P i (q ) in (2b) and (3b) for this demand system, the following direct and cross surplus obtains: Wiic = γ i γ j q 2j . By noting W c = ∑ij Wijc , Wiic = β i qi2 and we obtain the efficiency shares by dividing the numerator and the denominator of 1 2 (Wijc + W jic ) / W c by Q 2 . To simplify things we assume the goods are symmetrically differentiated, that is: β i = β and γ i = γ cii cij ; i = 1,..., n . In this case, the efficiency weights are: s 2i 1 n 1Hs 1 2 s 2i s 2j cji 1 n 1Hs 9 10 19 where ξ ≡ γ 2 / β ; 0 ≤ ξ < 1 . This parameter is a degree of the product differentiation (Singh and differentiation increases as Vives,1984, p.548). The intensity of ξ tends to 0. The formulas (9) and (10) show that, other things equal, the more intense is the differentiation of goods in the industry, the more the role of firms´ efficiencies are enhanced and the role of competition is mitigated. Hence, if goods are strongly differentiated, a lower level of coordination activity of the agency is needed to effect the proposed changes. The Proposition 2 below states that, for each market shares s , there is an optimal degree of product differentiation ξ s , that maximizes the market performance. The figure 2 ahead show that extreme values of the own and cross price-elasticity parameters, that is, high or low values of ξ , w.r.t. ξ s are associated with "excessive" or "insufficient" differentiation intensity. Such result for the intensity matches a Spence's prediction (1976a,b) for the number of varieties in monopolistic markets: the competitive equilibrium likely generate too many or too few varieties w.r.t. the social optimum, according to whether these elasticities are high or low. 1 3 Notice that the consideration of nonlinear systems is also possible. 1 4 Recall that if firms' sizes are also symmetric, the performance is maximum: Di = 1 / n Π n (1 / n ; ξ ) = 1 / n and all firms are high performer firms, because for all admissible values of ξ . When the goods are perfectly s 2 / H ( s) differentiated that is, when ξ = 0 , the shares in (9) and (10) equal i c and 0 , respectively. Then, it is easy to check that Π n ( s,0) = H ( s) for all s . Performance gains of variety Proposition 2 . (i) If the demand functions of symmetric varieties are c linear, Π n ( s, ξ ) approaches H (s) from below, as ξ → 0 . (ii) Given s , there is 20 an upper bound ξ o and an optimal degree ξ s > 0 maximizing the market performance. Proof: See Appendix The Proposition 2 implies the existence of a differentiation threshold ξˆ ∈ (ξ s , ξ o ) such that Π cn ( s, ξˆ) = H ( s ) . From Proposition 1, Π cn equals H under c a linear demand for homogeneous goods. Since Π n ( s, ξ ) ≤ H ( s ) when ξ < ξˆ , the market of varieties outperforms the homogeneous market if the goods are c sufficiently differentiated. The variety gain is measured by H ( s ) − Π n ( s, ξ ) . When ξ = ξ s , Π cn is minimum, so that Π cn ( s, ξ s ) gives the best performance allowed under market shares s . If goods are less differentiated than the minimum level, i.e. if ξ ≥ ξ o , the market conditions are not measurable. The set Μ cn shrinks as the size inequality increases. 1 5 The market performance of variety In order to illustrate the above results we calculated the performance curve Π cn ( s, ξ ) s = (.4, .3, .1, .1, .1) with n = 5 , given s . The market of section 4.1, firms and + another equally concentrated ( H = .28) with 10 firms, s + = (.36, .36, .13, .03, .03, .03, .03, .01, .01, .01) are considered. The curves shape like ˆ an elbow . The critical points obtained are: ξ o = .311; ξ = .302; ξ s = .232 with Π cn (ξ s ) = .228 for n = 5 and ξ o = .022; ξˆ = .021; ξ s = .016 with Π cn (ξ s ) = .210 for n = 10 . The Figure 2 below depicts the curve for n = 10 , which summarizes all other cases. In this figure and the others shown ahead, scale. FIGURE 2 Π cn is depicted in log 21 When 0 < ξ < ξˆ = .016 , we have .28 > Π cn (ξ ) > .21 . The goods are more differentiated than the optimal level underlying the present market sharing. If ξ decreases to 0 , the increased differentiation increases the market power of firms and reduces the consumers' gain from the variety, because substitution becomes difficult. As a consequence, the market performance worsens. At the limit ξ = 0 , all variety gain is eroded by the monopoly power of firms and the ultimate performance level equals that of the homogeneous market where no c variety gain is possible: Π n ( s,0) = H ( s) = .28 . The inspection of curves for the best directions of adjustments - not depicted here - show Di (ξ ) > 0 for all goods on the range ξ << ξ s meaning that higher performance can be achieved by increasing the supply of all firms. The derivatives are small for the largest firms and high for the smaller ones on this range. ˆ .21 < Π cn (ξ ) < .28 When 0 < ξ < ξ = .021 , we have again and the goods are less differentiated than the optimal level underlying the present market sharing. ˆ When ξ moves on the right side towards ξ , the performance worsens because the present differentiation intensity is excessive. The examination of the best direction curves Di (ξ ) show D1 = D2 < 0 for ξ > .015 and D3 < 0 for ξ > .021 , q suggesting that q1 , q 2 and 3 can be reduced within these differentiation ranges. Positive adjustments are indicated for the other goods. 1 6 If .021 < ξ < ξ o = .022 , the homogeneous market outperforms the market of varieties, because Π cn (ξ ) > H = .28 . ξˆ ξs The quantities As = ∫0 Πcn (s;ξ )dξ , and where the differentiation intensity is Bs = ∫ξ Πcn (s; ξ )dξ s give the area "excessive " and "insufficient", ˆ respectively. A mean index is given by Π n ( s ) ≡ ( As + Bs ) / ξ . The mean c performance gain from variety is: markets are shown in Table 1. H ( s) − Π nc ( s ) . The relevant values for both 22 TABLE 1 The mean variety gain is (.280 − .242) = .038 points ( .047 points) for n = 5 firms ( n = 10 ). Thus, variety generates a market performance improvement of 15.6% (.038/.28) when there is n = 5 firms and 16.8% (.047/.28) in the market with n = 10 . Given the market shares s , the optimal performance level is .228 (.210) . The total deviation of the mean performance value from the best (symmetric) value is ( .242 − .200 ) = .042 (.133) , which is the sum of the deviations due to preferences ( .242 − .228 ) = .014 market concentration ( .228 − .200 ) = .028 the same concentration (.023) and to (.110) . Tough both markets have H ( = .28 ), concentration accounts for 100 x (.028/.042) = 66% of the total performance deviation in the case n = 5 and 82.7% (.110/.133) of the market performance deviation in the case n = 10 . Asymmetric varieties and Gross substitution Under asymmetric differentiation we calculated the index in the case n = 5 , by assuming different values for the vector β with a fixed substitution parameter γ 0 . Defining ξ i ≡ γ 02 / β i we look at the vector ξ β = (ξ1 ,..., ξ n ) to be used for calculating Π n in connection with the efficiency shares c obtained in the linear ξ β = (.05, .09, .12, .12, .12) + demand example. The differentiation ωijc vector is assumed. It is presumed that the most preferred goods are more differentiated. The values chosen implement a mean preserving spread of the differentiation, with mean = .10 , for comparing the value of the performance index with the value Π 5c ( s + ,.10) = .243 which was obtained before under symmetric differentiation. We calculate the index also under the reverse profile, ξ βr = (.12, .12, .12, .09, .05) + . Percents in parenthesis indicate change w.r.t. the value under symmetric differentiation intensity. 23 The market performance values obtained are: Π 5c ( s + , ξ βr ) = .222 (−8.6%) + Π 5c ( s + , ξ β ) = .361 (+48.5%) + and . As expected, the mean preserving spread of differentiation making the most (least) preferred goods be less differentiated, improves (harms) the market performance. 1 7 V - THE PERFORMANCE OF INDUSTRIES A comparative static analysis is now carried out with the modified index obtained when distances, and hence, the intervention costs, are weighted according to a full efficiency criteria. That is, total efficiency shares used, instead of ω are ω c . Since in this case the technical efficiency of firms are also taken into account, Π n is a suitable index for the performance of the industry. In most cases, Π n will depend on the market size Q. Indeed, to have an index independent of total output, all functions Wij must be homogeneous in q1 ,..., q n . So, the price-marginal cost functions ( Pi − φi ) must also be ' homogeneous in all their arguments. Since Pi is decreasing in qi , φi' must be also decreasing in qi . Thus, to have a performance measure independent of the aggregate product level, economies of scale in the production of all firms would be required. 1 8 The index Π n is now used to obtain the performance effects of changes in the productive efficiency of firms holding s constant. Recall that increasing cost asymmetries tend to increase concentration, and hence, to reduce the industry performance. 5.1 Technical efficiencies and performance Consider a firm i facing the cost function parameter and φi (qi ; ci ) , where ci > 0 is a ∂φi / ∂ci > 0 . Assume there are nonsunken costs: φi (0; ci ) = 0 24 for all ci . When ci is a fixed cost and qi > 0 we have ∂φi / ∂ci = 1 and ∂ 2φi / ∂qi ∂ci = 0 , for all qi . In the homogeneous product case assume first, for simplicity, that ωij = 0 ; i ≠ j . That is, the agency costs of coordination are not considered. By taking the derivative of (4) w.r.t. ci and using the derivatives taken from (2a), we obtain: s n 1 n ni 2 n i i W c i c i 11 The expression into brackets in (11) can be written as where Di = si / nωi Π n nΠ n ( Di2 − 1 / n) , is the best direction of the price weighted output. Thus, a reduction in firm i ' s cost increases or not the aggregate performance according to i is a low performer firm ( Di > 1 / n ) or a high performer firm ( Di ≤ 1 / n ) . One can check that a high performer firm i (low performer) is such that its share in total surplus ωi equals or outweighs (falls short) its ( si2 / ωi ) / ∑ j =1 ( s 2j / ω j ) n share in the "weighted concentration" . Cost savings got by a firm increase its profit as well as its stake in economic surplus, but reduce the surplus share of the other firms. So, two opposite effects are at work: a pro-competitive internal effect related to the increased market power of the cost-reducing firm; and an anti-competitive external effect due to the fall of the surplus shares of the other firms. Therefore, an increase in the productive efficiency of a high performing firm harms the aggregate performance because the external effect dominates. If the cost-reducing is a low performing firm, the internal effect prevails, so that the industry performance improves. 25 If the costs of coordination are to be considered, that is, the ωij cross weights are used, the sign of ∂Π n / ∂ci cannot be easily predicted, unless ci is a fixed cost. In this case, the technical change no longer affects the marginal cost. If Fi stands for nonsunken fixed cost of firm i , taking the derivatives from (2b) and (3b) and using (4) we obtain: i n s 1 n n 2 n W F i where 12 ω i is the i th column of Ω −1 . Again, the expression into brackets in 2 Di = s'ω / n Π n is the best (12) can be written as nΠ n ( Di − 1 / n) , where i direction for firm i . The derivative in (12) is null, negative or positive ( Di ≤ 1 / n ) or low performance according to firm i ′ s high performance ( Di > 1 / n ) . Therefore, a reduction in fixed costs of a high performer firm (low performer firm), other things equal, worsens (improves) the industry performance. 5.2 Industry size and performance The index Π n depends on market size also when the firms bear fixed costs. It is useful to evaluate now the performance effect of a marginal change in the output level of the industry. Assume that all price-cost margins ( Pi − φi' ) are homogeneous functions of degree k and that all firms incur nonsunken fixed costs: φi (qi ) = Fi + ϕ i (qi ) for qi > 0 and ϕ i (0) = 0 . Then: n n k 1F n n i1 D2i f i s i i QW Q s 26 F = ∑i =1 Fi n where ; f i = Fi / F . Thus, an increase in the industry output that leaves unchanged the market shares is socially beneficial, if the sum of weighted deviations of costs ratios f i from market share ratios si / s 'ω is i positive. VI - SUMMARY AND FINAL COMMENTS By using the gradient approach of Dansby and Willig we proposed here a performance index Π N ( s;ς ) which enabled us to overcome some limitations of the indices presented in their 1979 paper. A generalized Euclidian metrics is used to set the output changes that are feasible. Further, we define surplus weights that are used to track not only the social costs of the output changes but also the agency costs of coordination. Unlike the original indices, present index allows us: (a) to the account adequately for the performance effects of changes in the product differentiation intensity and the technical efficiency of firms; (b) to anticipate that downsizing or horizontal divestiture of firms may be, in some cases, optimal actions to be virtually taken from a societal standpoint. Providing a gradient index that revealed to be a useful analytical tool for theoretical evaluations of the structure-performance relationship without making any assumption on the firms ’ contribution of the paper. The competition is, perhaps, the main present approach complies with the methodological claim that the analysis of the industry performance should focus on the social value of the market outcomes rather than on explaining firms' profitability or the relative product allocation. According to that view, market shares, as well as preferences and technology, were taken as given throughout the paper. The former are observed, the latter are hypothesized. Conduct can be assessed but only indirectly. 1 9 Of course, the present method do not intend to substitute current approaches of the industry competition based on the econometric estimation of surplus and deadweight losses generated by virtual or real changes in the market structure. However, the 27 indices obtained in the examples of Sections 4.1 and 4.2 depend on a few number of parameters, only one in the event, which indicates that, sometimes, the index can be calculated more easily than the welfare gains themselves. We will summarize now our main results. 1 . The paper allowed us to qualify the role of market shares, demand elasticity and variety in measuring the local effects of optimal output adjustments when the underlying intervention costs depend on efficiency weights that are calculated according to a consumers' criteria. (i) In homogeneous product markets, the market performance depends on market shares, demand elasticity and the number of firms. Excepting the case of perfectly inelastic demand, an increase in concentration always worsens performance. The way the elasticity parameter affects performance hinges on the nature of the goods traded. In case of nonessential goods, there are substitute goods outside the market. Other things equal, performance worsens as the elasticity parameter raises. If the demand is linear, the aggregate performance is measured by the H-concentration index. When the demand becomes perfectly elastic to price, performance is entirely determined by market concentration and the number of firms. As the aggregate demand becomes inelastic, the role of concentration weakens gradually. At the limit, the market performance is entirely determined by the number of firms. This provides a valuable insight to markets with price-inelastic demand: policies facilitating entry of new sellers are more effective to improve the market performance than policies aimed to reduce concentration. In case of essential goods to which no substitute goods are available, other things equal, performance improves if the elasticity parameter raises. The indices always depend on market shares, even when the market demand is nonlinear. So, any policy reducing concentration may be effective in improving performance. 28 Excepting the case of perfectly elastic demand, under the same market conditions, the nonessential goods market outperforms the essential one. This suggests that policies providing outside options for consumers, such as trade liberalization, are always effective in improving the performance of the market of an essential good. (ii) For differentiated product markets, the linear model in which a representative consumer value variety enables us to obtain the market gains of variety. In that case, the index depends on the number of firms, the market shares and the parameters of product differentiation. Under symmetric preferences and for each product allocation s , there is an optimal differentiation degree which maximizes the market performance. Excepting limit cases, the performance is higher than indicated by the H-concentration index, which is a market performance measure for homogeneous product industries when the demand is linear. Thus, the difference between these two indices provides a simple measure for the performance of variety. Under asymmetric differentiation, the aggregate performance is enhanced (worsened) if the larger (smaller) firms supply goods less differentiated. 2 . The performance index is sensitive to the trade-offs between allocative and productive efficiencies often occurring in heterogeneous industries. In Section V we have obtained the performance effects of cost economies under general demand and cost functions. A comparative static analysis shows that the industry performance improves when a cost economy is obtained by a low performing firm. This opens the possibility for mergers among such firms to increase the aggregate performance, if they are motivated by scale economies. In such cases, the pro competitive effects induced by the costs saved in the consolidation do outweigh the anticompetitive effects induced by the increased concentration. This result provides another theoretical support to policies of industry restructuring based on merging or taking-over of inefficient firms. 29 3 . At each output vector q = ( q1 ,..., qn ) , we can indentify the best directions Di in the firms' base price weighted outputs that are implied by the constrained welfare maximization. Given market shares and measurable conditions ( s, ς ) ∈ M ( s ) , the examples of Section 4.2 suggest that there is a large subset of structural parameters in M ( s ) , within which the directions are positive, meaning that an increasing supply of all firms should improve the aggregate performance. Outside that subset, the best directions are negative for some group of firms, either among the larger firms or among the smaller ones. In the first case, there is indication that the size of the largest firms might be "excessive" in that setting, which would call for policies aimed to reduce concentration, such as horizontal divestiture. The second case suggests that the smaller firms underperform in that setup, meaning that policies of industry restructuring favoring mergers or takeover could be considered. An immediate extension to the present approach might be to use traditional models of vertical differentiation (Mussa and Rosen,1978) and horizontal models (Hotelling or circular city) to see how the index changes with taste parameters, not just elasticity or differentiation intensity. Finally, it might not useless to say, the way the metric was chosen and the intervention costs modeled in the paper, as a fresh reply to an old challenge, only illustrates a (fruitful) possibility. Other solutions may be at the stake, and the way on how to improve upon the issue will remain an open question. 30 FOOTNOTES 1 / By argui ng th at a good p e rfo rman ce index should be a ble to ra nk wel fa re l ev els, Bl acko rby e t al . adopt a n axio mati c app roa ch to built a p e rfo rmanc e ind ex b ased on nu mb ers -equiv alent . Th ei r i nd ex r e p res ents a n evalu ation o rd eri ng p r eviou sl y d ef in ed ov e r alt e rn ativ e o utput s th at cap tu res the t r ad eof f bet we en con cent ration and wel fa r e, wh e re wel fare is mea sure d by tot al output . If t h e ev aluator's p refe ren ces a re homoth etic a nd th e out put o rd erin g ve rifie s a repl ic at ion p rin ciple en abli ng on e to d e al with non int ege r nu mb e r of fi rms, th ey p rove that such ind ex must be a g eo met ri c mean betwe en a nu mb er equiv alent tot al ou tput Q E (q) , whi ch i s an in v ers e mea sure of the in du st ry con cent rati on , and in the follo win g way: Q γ [ E (q )]1−γ . to th e choic es of t he ev al uat o r betwe en co n cent ration (γ = 0) ∆qi c onst ant r etu rn s to th e s cale , s in ce 3 / B y as su mptio n , we h ave: ∆qi in th e sense tha t in cre a s es , but t h e thi rd met ri cs assu me s ∂d / ∂ ∆qi = Pi c onst ant . ∂V (q) / ∂x = D p λ L( x; µ ) = V ( x) + µ[t 2 − ( x − q )' D p ΣD p ( x − q )] ma xi mu m . (a ). Th e Th e fi rst -o rd e r condit ions µ[t − (q * (t ) − q)' D p ΣD p (q * (t ) − q )] = 0 2 d ω ( D p q*, D p q ) ≤ t. On th e ∂V (q * (t )) / ∂t = ∂L / ∂t = 2 µt ma y write , fro m L ag range an ∂V (q * (t )) / ∂x = 2 µD p ΣD p (q * (t ) − q ) gi v e: (b) othe r h an d , is l ink ed (γ = 1) . a nd t ot al welfa re 2 / The fi rst t wo met ri cs exhi bit d ecre a s i n g ret u rn s t o t h e s c a l e o f th e m et ri cs (a nd h enc e, c ost s ) in c rea s es a s 0 < γ <1 T he p arame t er (c) by the (d ). Sinc e th e mat rix wi t h en velop e D p ΣD p is : fo r a (b ) a nd µ ≥0 a nd theo re m we h av e: is po siti ve definit e we [ D p ΣD p ]−1 / 2 ∂V (q * (t )) / ∂x = 2 µ[ D p ΣD p ]1 / 2 (q * (t ) − q) . Squ arring both side s of this equ ation and by using (c) i n th e rh s , we arriv e t o: [∂V (q * (t )) / ∂x]'[ D p ΣD p ]−1[∂V (q * (t )) / ∂x] = (2 µt ) 2 ( e ) . L e t squ a r e n o w b o t h si d es of equ at ion (d ). Th en equating it s lhs with th e lhs of (e) and ta king the li mit , fo r t →0 on bot h sid es Φ ω2 ≡ lim[∂V (q * (t )) / ∂t ]2 t →0 = of th e resultin g e quat ion [∂V (q) / ∂x]'[ D p ΣD p ]−1[∂V (q ) / ∂x] we , s inc e obt ain : V is C1 31 with in an op en n eigh bo rh ood of q. Us i n g no w t h e as s u mpt ion (a ) we a rr iv e t o: Φ ω2 = λ ' Σ −1λ . In o rd er to obt ain t he b est di rections , f ro m (b ) and Σ D ∂V (q * (t )) / ∂x = [dV (q * (t )) / dt ][ D p (q * (t ) − q ) / t ] −1 −1 p si d es fo r t →0 Σ −1λ = Φ ω Di a nd u s ing (a ) on lhs we obt ai n: (d ) we can writ e . Taki ng th e li mit on bo th . 4 / I n p a rt i c u l a r , f o r t h e i r Proposi tion 4 , th e money v al ue of t h e welfa r e ch an g e, V ( x) − V (q ) a bove by e xpe ct ed fro m an a rbit ra ry ad just ment v ect or Φ ω ( x − q )' D p ΣD p ( x − q ) ( x − q) , i s n o w bound ed . 5 / L e t V a r eal valu ed C 1 f unctio n de fined over U , a n op en c onvex subset of R n : V : U ⊂ R+n → R . The [∇V (q )]' ( x − q ) ≤ 0 fun ction i mpl i es V is said p se udocon ca ve q ∈U at if : V ( x) ≤ V (q ) , ∀x ∈U . 6 / Th e val u e of fi rms’ p rodu cti ons i s weighte d by the ac tual mark et share of fi rms , so th at ∑ n j =1 Pj ( s j q j ) ma y be vi e wed a s t h e ma rk et v alue o f th e c o mp o site s upply of firms. 7 / Se e Si mo n and Blu m (1994 ), Th eo rem 21 .22 p .532 . 8 / The bound ing oc cu rs be cau s e th e po sit ive d efini t en ess of Ω mak es th e inde x be a d ecre asing fun ct ion of th e economi c su rpl us, whi ch is maxi mu m wh en fi rms a nd c onsu me rs a re both symme t ri c . No w, if th e wa y o f co mp eti tion unde r sy mmet ry dist o rt s Π n > 1/ n . th e si ze dist ri bution , we should h ave ma rk et obt ains: s = (1 / n)1 . If do es not , a p e rf ectly fra g mented Πn Th en , we only hav e to sh o w th at the valu e of is 1/ n in thi s c ase. To thi s en d , c onsi d er th at th e sy mmet ri c h ypoth ese s i mply that th e di ag on al and off diagon al el ement s of th e wei ghtin g mat rix mu st b e co nst ant , say r es p ectiv ely . Th u s , d =a −b. The we i nv ers e Ω −1 = (c / d )[ I n − (nb / c)11' ] . Π n = 1/ n Ω = c −1[d .I n + b11' ] , h ave: can be T hen , f o r all adm i ssi bl e v alu es o f pe rfo r med it fol lo ws where a/c c = n(d + nb) st r aightf o r wardly . t h at a nd 1' Ω −11 = n 2 , and It b/c, a nd gi v es : the r efo r e, a, b , n . 9/ By a cl assi cal t h eo re m of Lin ear Alg eb ra, t h ere i s a lin ear o rthogon al t ransformati on of th e marke t sh a re coordin ate s s1 ,..., sn , say m = R' s , all o wing to write ( 4 ) i n t he n ew 32 c oo rdinat es R = [r1 ,..., rn ] e igenv al ues Π n = ∑i =1 (mi / nν i ) 2 n m1 ,...mn as in the c an oni c fo r m: ri i s t h e o rthogon al mat rix of t he ei genv ecto rs νi > 0 , wh ere a s soc iat ed to the o f th e matrix Ω . 10 / Fro m th e posit iv e defin ite ness o f Ω , the re i s a lo wer t ri angul ar ma t rix T = [t ij ] ; t ij = 0, j > i s uch Π n = (1 / n)∑k =1 (∑ j =1 t kj s j ) 2 n Th i s al lo ws to writ e (4 ) as k c oncent r ation r at io o f o rd er 11/ Th e numb e r Ω −1 = T 'T . th at 1/ n wh e re th e t erm i n side p a renth esi s is a wei ghted k. h as a s pecial mea ning in fairer vot ing t h eo ry . It i s p ropo rtion al to th e p rob abil ity th at a poll wit h a l a rg e nu mb e r n of ind ep ende nt vote rs finish es in a d ead h eat . Su ch p rob abilit y d efine s th e voting powe r of a parti cipant . It i s c alled Pe n rose' s squa re-root l a w, aft e r Pen rose (1946). 12/ If th e co sts of coo rdin ation are to be con s id e red , th e equi v al ent o f (3 ) would lead to: Wij = Wii . Thu s , a n on po sitive defini te mat rix obt ains . 13 / Cha mb erlin (193 3 ) find s that monopol i sti c ma rket s t end to ov e rp rovi d e p rodu ct div e rsit y . By using the p roduct cha ract e ri sti c a pp roa ch , La nc as t er(1977 ) find s the s ame, but th e el as ti city o f sub sti tuti on b et we en i nsid e and out sid e g ood s mu st not b e too high . Th e is sue is discussed al so wi th a re p resent ati ve consu me r a pp roach , as i n Sp en ce (1976 a ), Dixi t and Stigl it z (1977 ) and Manki w and Whi nston (1985 ) and wi th a di scre te choi ce a pp roach . See And erson et al .(1 995). 14/ Fo r in st anc e, a ssu me th at th e con su mer h as qua si -lin ea r p refe rence s rep resent ed by th e sep arabl e util ity U (q; qo ) = qo + ∑i =1 nβ i qiθ function: ; 0 < θ < 1 , qi > 0 . T he nonl in ear de ma nd fun ctions gen e rat ed b y the uti lity maxi mi zation lead to th e foll o wi ng Π cn = (1 / n)(∑i =1 β i siθ )(∑i =1 β i−1 si2−θ ) n ind ex: Π cn = (1 / n)(∑i =1 siθ )(∑i =1 si2−θ ) n to: n h ave: . Fo r n . Th en , fo r βi = β con stant , t h e ind ex speci aliz es c θ → 1, Π n → 1/ n a nd fo r θ →0 we Π →H. c n Ω 15 / To se e thi s in th e si mpl est case n = 2 , t h e posit iv e definit ene ss condi tion fo r c i s: 0 ≤ ξ < 2 s1 s2 /( s12 + s22 ) ≡ ξ o . (99 / 100 ; 1 / 100) yi elds So , t h e m a r k e t sh a r e s ξ o = .02 . (1 / 2 , 1 / 2) yi eld ξo = 1 but 33 16 / Anot h er ex a mple sho wing th e opti m al ity of redu cing th e supply of th e small er fi rms wh en the p rodu ct sub sti tuti on i s high: ma r k et we ob t ai n: ξ .0325 ; ξˆ = .43. f o r t h e s ma l l e st f i r m: D4 (ξ ) n = 4 ; s = (.4; .3; .2; .1) with H = .30 . Th e di re ctions a re p ositi v e f o r all fi rms, e x cepti ng b e co m es n ega tive i f ξ > .36 . 17 / Fo r ex ampl e , the same qu alit at iv e effect is obt ain ed by mu ltipl ying 2.8 , w i t h me an ξ = .28 : Fo r this the p e rfo rma n ce in c rea s es by 39.6% ξβ + (and ξ βr ( a n d d ec r e a s e s b y + ) by 14% ) w .r . t . th e symm et ri c v al u e ( = .241 ) ; 18 / Unde r scale economi es, an Indu st ry index indep end ent of Q is giv en as foll o ws. Th e i th fi rm of a ho mog en eous p ro duct φi (q) = (ci / 1 − δ )q1−δ ; 0 < ci < (1 − δ ) siδ P = Q −δ c ost ; 0 < δ < 1, i = 1,..., n . p ar a me te rs in du st ry Fo r Mn si mpli city , th e agen cy c oo rdination co st s , so th at the c ro ss weigh ts a r e negl e ct ed ( l ead s to: th e in dex g et: co st i ncl udes t h e v ect o r of doe s ωij = 0 a nd lim Π ( s, c , δ ) = H ( s ) δ →1 Π n ( s;ς ) clo s e to 1/ n for all in cu r in . W e t h en o bta in b y u sing (4 ) . On e can che ck t h at und e r sy mm etr i c cost s lim Π ( s, c , δ ) = 1 / n δ →0 19 / Valu es of not ) . T h e u se o f (2 a) n 1 i 1 1 s i 1 c i s 1 c i s 1 i /n i1 1 s i i Π n ( s, δ , c ) fun cti on a nd faces t he inve rse agg regate d e mand In t hi s e cono my , a po int of c = (c1 ,..., cn ) . h as ci = c we c. me an th at th e ob se rved marke t sh ares fit the st ructu re of p ref erence s and co sts, so that l a rg e d evi ati ons of th e index fro m that mi ni mu m valu e sugg est t h at oth e r ec ono mi c fo rc es not rep re s ented by p a ramte rs wo rk , anti co mp eti tive c onduct includ ed . ς are at 34 REFERENCES ANDERSON,S.P., A. de PALMA and Y. NES T E R O V ( 19 9 5 ) O l i g o p o l i s t i c c o m p e t i t i o n a n d t h e o p t i m a l p ro v i s i o n o f p r o d u c t s , E c on o m e t r i c a, 63, 6, 1281- 1 301; B A I N , J . ( 1 9 6 8 ) I n d u s t r i a l O r g a n i z a t i o n, J oh n W i l e y & Sons , Ne w York; B E R R Y , S . T . a n d J . W A L D F OG E L ( 20 0 1) D o me r g e r s i n c r e a s e p r o d u c t va r i e t y ? 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LEONARD(2002) The competitive effects of a new product i n t r o d u c t i o n : a case study, The Journal of I n dus t r i a l E c o n o m i c s, L, ( 3 ) , 2 3 7- 6 3 ; KÜ HN,K-U. and X. VIVES(1999) Exce ss entry, v e r t i c a l i n t e gr a t i on , a n d w e l f a r e , R a nd J ou r n a l o f E c o n o m i c s, 30, 4, 575- 603. L A N C A S T E R , K . ( 1 97 9 ) V a r i e ty , E qu i t y a n d E f f i c i e n c y, C ol u mbi a Unive r s i t y Pr e s s . M A H A L A N O B I S , P . C. ( 1 9 3 6 ) O n t h e g e n e r a l i z e d d i s t a n c e i n s ta t i s t i c s , P r o c . N a t . I n s t . S c i. I n d i a , 1 2 , 4 9 - 55; MANKIW,N.G. and M.D.WHINSTON(1986) Free e nt r y a nd s o c i a l i n e f f i c i e n c y , R a n d J ou r n a l o f 35 E c ono mi c s , 1 7 , 1 , 4 8 - 5 8 ; MUSSA, M.,ROSEN,S.(1978) Monopoly and Product Q u a l i t y , J o u r n a l o f E c o n o mi c T h e o r y, 18, 301-17; P E N R O SE , L . S . ( 1 9 4 6 ) T h e e l e m e n t a r y s t a t i s t i c s o f m a j o r i t y v o t i n g , J o u r n a l o f the Royal Statistical S o c i e t y, C IX , 53- 5 7 ; S C H E R E R , F . M . a n d D . R O S S ( 1 9 9 0 ) I nd u s t r i a l M a r k e t S t r u c t u r e a n d E c o n o mi c P e r f o r m a n c e, Houghton M i ff l i n a n d C o . 3 n d e d . SIMON, C.P. and L.BLUM (1994 ) Mathematics for E c ono mi s t s , W . W . N o r t o n E d i t i o n SINGH, N. and X.VIVES(198 4) Pr ic e a nd qua nti ty c om p e t i t i o n i n a differentiated d uopoly, Rand J o u r n a l o f E c o n o m i c s , 15, 4, 546- 54; SPENCE,M.(1976a) Product seclection, Fixed Costs a n d M o n o p o l i s t i c C o mpe t i t i o n , R e v i e w o f E c ono mi c S tu d i e s, 43, 217-235; ( 1 9 7 6 b ) P r o d u c t d i f f e r en t i a t i o n a n d w e l f a r e , A me r i c a n E c ono mi c R e v i e w , 6 6 , 2 , 4 07-14; Performance 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Inverse demand elasticity Fig.1: PERFORMANCE and PRICE-ELASTICITY Essential good (green); Nonessential (red) performance 0.29 0.28 0.27 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.21 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.20 0.22 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.30 Inverse differentiation intensity Fig.2 Performance in differentiated product markets 1 Table 1 : Performance gains from variety and deviations s+ = (:4; :3; :1; :1; :1); (:36; :36; 13; :03; :03; :03; :03; :01; :01; :01) Mean values H = 0:28 Performance Gain from variety Total deviation Preferences Market shares n=5 0:242 0:038 0:042 0:014 0:028 n = 10 0:233 0:047 0:133 0:023 0:110 1 APPENDIX In d u str y P e r fo rm a n c e W e ig h te d I n d e x V V (q * (t)) Φ = tg θ θ x2 q2 q *2 q * (t) q* q q *1 q1 x1 1. Proof of Proposition 1: For the sufficiency, the use of equation (8) in connection with (4) makes the linearity of P to imply Πcn = H. For the necessity, by using the mean c value theorem in equation (1a) with φ0 = P, one obtains, W Pin = ki qi , where c ki = P (xi + QiP ) − P (Q), 0 < xi < qi . Therefore, si /ω i = ( l ki si )/ki or, putting ks ≡ nl ki si = W c /Q this yields: si /ωci = ks /ki . Thus, we have: n n P P c ( ωsii )si = ( ksii ) WQ = ( kqii )( kQi q2i ) = ( kqii ) ( kqii )s2i . If P is not linear(affine), i=1 i=1 all ki ≡ P (xi + Qi ) − P (Q) cannot be written as constant proportions of the quantities, say ki = τ qi ; τ > 0, i = 1, ..., n. Therefore, the r.h.s. of the last equality cannot be equal to H for every output vector q = (q1 , ..., qn )τ , as it would be required. ¤ 2. Proof of Proposition 2: + the weighting matrix can be written as: Ωc (ξ) = Given, s ∈ Sn−1 1 [Ds2 + ξB] where K(ξ) = [1 + (n − 1)ξ]; Ds2 = Diag(s21 , ..., s2n ); B = HK(ξ) 1 [1s2τ + s2 1τ ] − Ds2 and s2 is the vector of squares of the market shares. 2 For ξ = 1 the matrix Ωc (1) has rank 2, and for ξ = 0, Ωc (0) is a diagonal matrix with full rank. The positive definitness of Ωc (ξ) occurs for 2 all ξ < ξ o where ξ o < 1 is a value anulling the smallest eigenvalue of Ωc (ξ). So, Mn (s) = {s} × [0, ξ o ) and since Ωc (ξ) is a continuous function of ξ over that interval, the same can be said about Cnc (s, ξ). Therefore, any sequence (s, ξ j ) converging to (s, 0) makes the index converging to Πcn (s; 0) = H(s). The limit is approximated from below. Indeed, the derivPn 1 ∂Πcn (s, ξ) τ i 2 τ i = ative of the index w.r.t. ξ is: i=1 (s ω )si [(s ω ) − ∂ξ HK(ξ) Pn 1 1 τ j τ i 2 j=1 (s ω )]. For ξ = 0, we have Ωc (0) = H Ds2 so that s ω = H/si . Thus, n c ∂Πn (s, 0) = (nH/h)(h − 1/n), where h = Sn n(1/sj ) is the harmonic mean of j=1 ∂ξ market shares. The inequality h 6 1/n holds for every s, with equality only if s = en . Hence, the derivative is always nonpositive at the origin. Finally, the continuity of Πcn (ξ) and Weiestrass theorem ensure that there is a point ξ s ∈ (0, ξ o − ], providing a minimum value to the index for some > 0 with Πcn (s, ξ s ) < H(s). Since Ω is singular at ξ o , we have: lim− Πcn (s, ξ) = ∞. ¤ ξ→ξ o