OVER THE MOUNTAIN: A Systematic Approach to Dropout Prevention Presentation by: Donna Banks Ed.S., LPC, NCC and Peter Bobbe MS.ed Part 1: Understanding the Issues Part 2: Analyzing Data and Risk-Factors Part 3: Strategies that Work Economics of High School Dropouts Earn less Pay less in taxes Rely more on public health More involved in criminal justice system More likely to use welfare services (Rotermund, California Dropout Research Project, Statistical Brief 5, September 2007) UNDERSTANDING THE PROBLEM: TYPES OF DROPOUT RATES Event rates describe the percentage of students in a given age range who leave school each year without graduating. (Ages 15-24, grades 10-12) Status rates provide data on dropouts among all individuals in a specified age range. (Ages 16-24 not enrolled) Cohort rates measure what happens to a group of students over a period of time. (How many starting in grade 9 graduate after 4 years) N AT I O N A L D R O P O U T P R E V E N T I O N CENTER/NETWORK DROPOUT PREVENTION: A NATIONAL ISSUE 512,702 U.S. students dropped out of school between October 2004 and October 2005 Enough to fill 12,207 school buses (USDOE, National Center for Education Statistics, 2008, “Numbers and Rates of Public High School Dropouts: School Year 2004-2005”) Dropout Prevention: A National Issue Background Characteristics Race/Ethnicity Dropout Rate White, non-Hispanic 7.3% Black, non-Hispanic 10.9% Hispanic 27.0% Hispanic, immigrant 44.2% Asian/Pacific Islander 3.8% Native American 57.0% Dropout Rates Among Students with Disabilities Nationwide, dropout rates among students with disabilities for all categories of disabilities combined is approximately double that of general education peers. Dropout rates vary substantially among the various categories of disability. National Dropout Prevention Center/Network Percentage of Students Age 14 and Older Graduating With a Standard Diploma or Dropping Out 1995-96 to 1999-2000 Graduated With a Standard Diploma Dropped Out Disability Category Percentage Percentage Specific learning disabilities 62.1 27.6 Speech or language impairments 66.1 24.6 Mental retardation 39.5 26.0 Emotional disturbance 40.1 51.4 Multiple disabilities 48.0 16.1 Hearing impairments 68.4 14.8 Orthopedic impairments 62.5 15.4 National Dropout Prevention Center/Network Percentage of Students Age 14 and Older Graduating With a Standard Diploma or Dropping Out 1995-96 to 1999-2000 Graduated With a Standard Diploma Dropped Out Percentage Percentage Other health impairments 67.7 22.4 Visual impairments 73.4 11.9 Autism 47.3 11.1 Deafness/Blindness 48.5 10.3 Traumatic brain injury 65.3 18.1 56.2 29.4 Disability Category All disabilities TOP 10 REASONS 10TH GRADERS DROPPED OUT: 2002-04 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Missed too many school days……………… 44% Thought it easier to get a GED……..…….. 41% Poor grades/failing school………………….. 38% Did not like school …………………………….. 37% Could not keep up with schoolwork…….. 32% Got a job…………………………………………… 28% Pregnancy*……………………………………….. 28% Felt unable to complete coursework...... 26% Could not get along with teachers……….. 25% Could not hold a job at same time….…….22% *females only (Rotermund, California Dropout Research Project, Statistical Brief Number 2, May 2007) WHY STUDENTS GO TO SCHOOL? Here is how students responded to the question from most common response to least common: • • • • • • • • • Because I want to get a degree and go to college………73% Because of my peers/friends…………………………….........68% Because it’s the law…………………………………………………58% Because I want to acquire skills for the workplace…….47% Because of what I learn in classes……………………………39% Because I enjoy being in school………………………………..34% To stay out of trouble………………………………………………..24% Because of my teacher(s)…………………………………………22% Because there’s nothing else to do…………………………..22% (Yazzie-Mintz, “Voices of Students on Engagement: A Report on the 2006 High School Survey of Student Engagement”) DROPOUT PREVENTION: A NATIONAL ISSUE Status of dropouts (ages 16-24) by repetition of grade: Have been retained Have never been retained 24.1% 10.1% National Dropout Prevention Center/Network YCS Retentions on Record 2013 Retained 0x (2) 18% Retained 1x (5) 45% Retained 2x (2) 18% Retained more than 2x 18% (2) D/O have been ret 73% Grade Retention and School Dropout One grade – increases risk by 40% Two grades – increases risk by 90% (Roderick, M. PDK Research Bulletin, No. 15, 1995) Barriers and Risks for Girls • Pregnancy and family responsibilities 33% of dropouts are pregnant before exiting • Attendance rates 9% more girls than boys cite attendance as a factor • Academics African American, Hispanics & Native Amer./Alaskan Natives drop out at a higher rate than males or Caucasians • Discipline 12th grade Hispanic females’ dropout rate skyrockets • Family structure and rules (When Girls Don’t Graduate, We All Fail, 2007) While no one factor (or even several factors) puts students at risk, combinations of factors can help identify potential dropouts. Domains •Individual •Family •School •Community National Dropout Prevention Center/Network Individual Factors • Lack of future orientation • Inadequate peer relationships • Drug abuse • Pregnancy • Special learning needs • Depression Family Factors • Poverty • Low expectations • Abuse • Mobility of family • Parents’ level of education School Factors • Lack of programs for challenged students • No significant, interested adult • Lack of alternatives for learning • Lack of active learning instruction • No individual learning plans • Behavior and discipline issues • Retention policies Community Factors • Lack of involvement with schools • Lack of support for schools • Non-caring environment • Low expectations • Violence • Few recreational facilities RESEARCH TO PRACTICE Analyzing Risk Factors Predicting Values RISK FACTORS BY SCHOOL LEVELS RISK FACTORS BY SCHOOL LEVELS Key: ✔ One (1) research study ✔ Two (2) or more research studies RISK FACTORS SUPPORTED ACROSS ALL SCHOOL LEVELS Low achievement Retention/over age for grade Poor attendance https://kinvolved.wordpress.com/2013/12/13/the-most-important-educationreform-reducing-absenteeism/ Low family socioeconomic status RESEARCH: OBSERVATIONS ABOUT RISK FACTORS School dropout has multiple causes Multiple risk factors better predictor Life course model, where dropout is not an event but a process with factors building and compounding over time WHAT REALLY MATTERS?” % that Graduated in Four Years Grades and Attendance Average Freshman Grades Rounded to the nearest 0.5 (The Consortium on Chicago School Research at the University of Chicago) HOW IMPORTANT IS ATTENDANCE? Students with many absences were: • 5 times more likely to use drugs • 3 times more likely to use alcohol • 4 times more likely to have low grades • 6 times more likely to have failed courses • 2 times more likely to have low reading scores (Working Together, An Education handbook for Alaska Native Families, 2004) PREDICTIVE CHARACTERISTICS Predictive Variables Accuracy Absences……………………………………… Achievement tests (Grade 3)…………. Failing grades (Grades 1-8)…………….. Grade point average (Grade 9)………. Teacher comments (Grades 1-8)…….. (Barrington & Hendricks, 2001) 66% 70% 85% 90% 63% EARLY LITERACY DEVELOPMENT The Need for Early Literacy Development U.S. companies lose almost $40 billion annually because of illiteracy 85% of delinquent children and 75% of adult prison inmates are illiterate (National Reading Panel, 1999) SIXTH GRADE PREDICTORS OF “FALLING OFF TRACK” Attending school 80% or less of the time Receiving a poor, final behavior mark Failing Math Failing English (Balfanz and Herzog, 2006) RESEARCH: DROPOUT PATHWAY Dropping out of school is the result of a long process of disengagement that may begin before a child enters school. National Dropout Prevention Center/Network DROPOUT PREVENTION: EVERYONE’S PROBLEM 15 Strategies That Help Prevent Students From Dropping Out http://www.dropoutprevention.org/effective-strategies SCHOOL AND COMMUNITY PERSPECTIVE 1. Safe Learning Environments A comprehensive violence prevention plan, including conflict resolution, must deal with potential violence as well as crisis management. A safe learning environment provides daily experiences, at all grade levels, that enhance positive social attitudes and effective interpersonal skills in all students. Overview | Resources | Model Programs 2. School-Community Collaboration When all groups in a community provide collective support to the school, a strong infrastructure sustains a caring supportive environment where youth can thrive and achieve. Overview | Resources | Model Programs 3. Systemic Renewal A continuing process of evaluating goals and objectives related to school policies, practices, and organizational structures as they impact a diverse group of learners. The process includes removing organizational barriers and providing a system structure that supports change. Overview | Resources | Model Programs SYSTEMIC RENEWAL Programs providing Strong evidence of positive effects on student achievement Direct Instruction High Schools That Work Success for All What Works Clearinghouse (12 programs) http://www.ies.ed.gov/ncee/wwc/FindWhatWorks.aspx (Educational Research Service, 1999; IES, 2007) SYSTEMIC RENEWAL Policies Populations Personnel Programs Practices Partners Pennies DROPOUT PREVENTION: EVERYONE’S PROBLEM EARLY INTERVENTIONS 4. Early Childhood Education Birth-to-five interventions demonstrate that providing a child additional enrichment can enhance brain development. The most effective way to reduce the number of children who will ultimately drop out is to provide the best possible classroom instruction from the beginning of their school experience through the primary grades. Overview | Resources | Model Programs 5. Early Literacy Development Early interventions to help low-achieving students improve their reading and writing skills establish the necessary foundation for effective learning in all other subjects. Overview | Resources | Model Programs 6. Family Engagement Research consistently finds that family engagement has a direct, positive effect on children's achievement and is the most accurate predictor of a student's success in school. Overview | Resources | Model Programs Basic Core Strategies 7. After-School Opportunities Many schools provide after-school and summer enhancement programs that eliminate information loss and inspire interest in a variety of areas. Such experiences are especially important for students at risk of school failure because these programs fill the afternoon "gap time" with constructive and engaging activities. Overview | Resources | Model Programs Service-learning programs involve students doing meaningful service—usually a project they select based on real community needs— that is linked to academic and personal learning. (Shumer & Duckenfield, 2004) 8. Alternative Schooling Alternative schooling provides potential dropouts a variety of options that can lead to graduation, with programs paying special attention to the student's individual social needs and academic requirements for a high school diploma. Overview | Resources | Model Programs How do alternative schools help keep students from dropping out? Help develop a sense of belonging and accomplishment Provide smaller class sizes Focus on helping students with personal and family issues Develop closer relationships 9. Mentoring/Tutoring Mentoring is a one-to-one caring, supportive relationship between a mentor and a mentee that is based on trust. Tutoring, also a one-to-one activity, focuses on academics and is an effective practice when addressing specific needs such as reading, writing, or math competencies. Overview | Resources | Model Programs Mentoring has many formats … Traditional: One adult with one student Peer: One older youth with a younger Group/Team: Telementoring: youth One or more adults with several youth One adult with one youth using the internet Best Practices in Mentoring Structured program goals and objectives Recruitment and training programs for mentors Matching techniques and mentoring activities Adequate program support and resources Marketing, monitoring, and evaluation activities 10. Service-Learning Service-learning connects meaningful community service experiences with academic learning. This teaching/learning method promotes personal and social growth, career development, and civic responsibility and can be a powerful vehicle for effective school reform at all grade levels. Overview | Resources | Model Programs Service-learning programs involve students doing meaningful service—usually a project they select based on real community needs— that is linked to academic and personal learning. (Shumer & Duckenfield, 2004) MAKING THE MOST OF INSTRUCTION 11. Active Learning Active learning embraces teaching and learning strategies that engage and involve students in the learning process. Students find new and creative ways to solve problems, achieve success, and become lifelong learners when educators show them that there are different ways to learn. Overview | Resources | Model Programs Benefits of Cooperative Learning Team members hold each other accountable to do a fair share Helps create positive interpersonal relationships that value diversity Higher academic achievement by all students (Johnson, & Holubec, 1992) ACTIVE LEARNING Benefits of Multiple Intelligences/Learning Styles http://psychology.about.com/od/educationalpsychology/ss/multiple-intell.htm Celebrates and values diversity Students take a more responsible role in the learning process Teachers help students improve weak areas by encouraging them to try ways that take them out of their comfort level (Foster & Shirley, 2004) 12. Career and Technology Education (CTE) A quality CTE program and a related guidance program are essential for all students. School-to-work programs recognize that youth need specific skills to prepare them to measure up to the larger demands of today's workplace. Overview | Resources | Model Programs Best Practices in CTE Career guidance K-12 Workforce counseling Cooperative education opportunities School-based enterprises Work-based programs and internships Mentoring and job shadowing Career Academies Tech Prep Impact of CTE • Enrollment in CTE does not increase the likelihood of students dropping out. (USDE, 2003) • Career guidance increased students remaining in school from 50% to 85%. (Bauer, 1992) • Higher percentages of CTE experiences lower the probability of dropping out. (Plank, 2001) EFFECTIVE CAREER-TECHNICAL EDUCATION: MULTIPLE PATHWAYS Career Academies enhance motivation and enjoyment which result in: • • • • • • • Increased attendance Better grades Fewer failed courses Lower dropout rates Better college entrance rates Maintaining a positive attitude toward school Increased planning for the future (Grubb & Stern, Making the Most of Career-Technical Education: Options for California, 2007) 13. Educational Technology Technology offers some of the best opportunities for delivering instruction to engage students in authentic learning, addressing multiple intelligences, and adapting to students' learning styles. Overview | Resources | Model Programs Research on Using Technology • Is a positive influence on students at risk of failure (Day, 2002) • Teaches “real work applications” to help students succeed outside the classroom • Increases student motivation, raises the success rate of students performing complex tasks, and changes classroom roles and organization Educational Technology Best Practices Student-centered activities, not teacher-controlled Integrated into the curriculum, not an add-on or reward Students become engaged in learning and acquire critical thinking and problem-solving skills (Schmitz, Prescott, & Hunt, 1996). 14. Individualized Instruction Each student has unique interests and past learning experiences. An individualized instructional program for each student allows for flexibility in teaching methods and motivational strategies to consider these individual differences. Overview | Resources | Model Programs Encourages the learner to be the producer of knowledge with... • Problem-based learning & reciprocal teaching • Peer tutoring • Cooperative learning • Journaling • Hands-on projects • Role playing and simulations INDIVIDUALIZED INSTRUCTION Major Components • Individualizing learning: to recognize and build upon each child's unique past experiences and prior knowledge • Individualizing motivation: to recognize and use the keys to a child's interests, goals, and confidence 15. Professional Development Teachers who work with youth at high risk of academic failure need to feel supported and have an avenue by which they can continue to develop skills, techniques, and learn about innovative strategies. Overview | Resources | Model Programs The single largest factor affecting the academic growth of students is the difference in the effectiveness of individual classroom teachers (Tennessee Value-Added Assessment System, Sanders, 1998) COLLECTING AND ANALYZING DATA AND RISK FACTORS Dropout Rates: Total number of YCS dropouts/YCS DO Rate/ NC DO Rate 2012-2013= 11 students 1.60% 2. 45% 2011-2012= 19 students 2.57% 3.01% 2010-2011= 36 students 4.70% 3.43% 2009-2010= 38 students 4.88% 3.75% 2008-2009= 45 students 5.44% 4.27% 2007-2008= 61 students 7.07% 4.97% 2006-2007= 38 students 4.55% 5.27% 2005-2006= 37 students 4.31% 4.74% 2004-2005= 51 students 5.99% 4.74% 2003-2004= 4.70% 4.86% 2002-2003= 3.86% 4.78% 2001-2002= 4.45% 5.25% Graduation Cohort Rates/YCS DO Rate 2007-2008 4 YEAR COHORT GRAD. RATE= 75.1% / 7.07% 2008-2009 4 YEAR COHORT GRAD. RATE= 80.6% / 5.44% 2009-2010 4 YEAR COHORT GRAD. RATE= 77.2% / 4.88% 2010-2011 4 YEAR COHORT GRAD. RATE= 78.2 / 4.70% 2011-2012 4 YEAR COHORT GRAD. RATE= 82.3% / 2.57% 2012-2013 4 Year COHORT GRAD. RATE= 82.7% / 1.60% 2013-2014 4 Year COHORT GRAD. RATE= 92.1 % / TBA INSTITUTE OF EDUCATION SCIENCES PRACTICE GUIDE RECOMMENDATIONS 1. Utilize data systems that support a realistic diagnosis of the number of students who drop out and that help identify individual students at high risk of dropping out (diagnostic) 2. Assign adult advocates to students at risk of dropping out (targeted intervention) 3. Provide academic support and enrichment to improve academic performance (targeted intervention) 4. Implement programs to improve students’ classroom behavior and social skills (targeted intervention) 5. Personalize the learning environment and instructional process (schoolwide intervention) 6. Provide rigorous and relevant instruction to better engage students in learning and provide the skills needed to graduate and to serve them after they leave school (schoolwide intervention) NATIONAL TRENDS Alternative Schooling and Recovery Programs Virtual credit recovery Private contract and charter schools Attendance and Truancy Reduction Program Aggressive attendance programs by school districts and communities Court-based programs aligned with school efforts Increased Role of “Counselors” Graduation coaches (GA) Guidance technicians (St. Paul, MN) NATIONAL TRENDS AND TIPS Individualized Learning Plans Individual Graduation Plan (South Carolina) Six-Year Plan (St. Paul, MN) Smaller Learning Communities Ninth grade academies Smaller “houses” within high schools Transition Programs Formal programs between 8th and 9th grades Transition counselors throughout multiple grade DROPOUT RESOURCES National Dropout Prevention Center www.dropoutprevention.org National Institute on the Education of At-Risk Students www.ed.gov/offices/OERI/At-Risk Center for Research on the Education of Students Placed At Risk (CRESPAR) www.csos.jhu.edu/crespar DROPOUT RESOURCES http://www.csos.jhu.edu/crespar/techReports/Report70.pdf http://all4ed.org/reports-factsheets/the-economic-benefits-from-halving-the-dropoutrate-a-boom-to-businesses-in-the-nations-largest-metropolitan-areas