OVER THE MOUNTAIN:
A Systematic Approach to Dropout Prevention
Presentation by:
Donna Banks Ed.S., LPC, NCC
and
Peter Bobbe MS.ed
Part 1: Understanding the Issues
Part 2: Analyzing Data and Risk-Factors
Part 3: Strategies that Work
Economics of High School Dropouts
Earn less
Pay less in taxes
Rely more on public health
More involved in criminal justice
system
 More likely to use welfare services




(Rotermund, California Dropout Research Project, Statistical Brief 5, September 2007)
UNDERSTANDING THE PROBLEM:
TYPES OF DROPOUT RATES
 Event rates describe the percentage of students in a
given age range who leave school each year without
graduating. (Ages 15-24, grades 10-12)
 Status rates provide data on dropouts among all
individuals in a specified age range. (Ages 16-24 not
enrolled)
 Cohort rates measure what happens to a group of
students over a period of time. (How many starting in
grade 9 graduate after 4 years)
N AT I O N A L D R O P O U T P R E V E N T I O N
CENTER/NETWORK
DROPOUT PREVENTION:
A NATIONAL ISSUE
 512,702 U.S. students dropped out of
school between October 2004 and
October 2005
 Enough to fill 12,207 school buses
(USDOE, National Center for Education Statistics, 2008, “Numbers and Rates of Public High
School Dropouts: School Year 2004-2005”)
Dropout Prevention:
A National Issue
Background Characteristics
Race/Ethnicity
Dropout Rate
White, non-Hispanic
7.3%
Black, non-Hispanic
10.9%
Hispanic
27.0%
Hispanic, immigrant
44.2%
Asian/Pacific Islander
3.8%
Native American
57.0%
Dropout Rates Among
Students with Disabilities
Nationwide, dropout rates among students
with disabilities for all categories of disabilities
combined is approximately double that of
general education peers.
Dropout rates vary substantially among the
various categories of disability.
National Dropout Prevention Center/Network
Percentage of Students Age
14 and Older Graduating
With a Standard Diploma or
Dropping Out 1995-96 to
1999-2000
Graduated
With
a Standard
Diploma
Dropped
Out
Disability Category
Percentage
Percentage
Specific learning disabilities
62.1
27.6
Speech or language
impairments
66.1
24.6
Mental retardation
39.5
26.0
Emotional disturbance
40.1
51.4
Multiple disabilities
48.0
16.1
Hearing impairments
68.4
14.8
Orthopedic impairments
62.5
15.4
National Dropout Prevention Center/Network
Percentage of Students Age
14 and Older Graduating
With a Standard Diploma or
Dropping Out 1995-96 to
1999-2000
Graduated
With
a Standard
Diploma
Dropped
Out
Percentage
Percentage
Other health impairments
67.7
22.4
Visual impairments
73.4
11.9
Autism
47.3
11.1
Deafness/Blindness
48.5
10.3
Traumatic brain injury
65.3
18.1
56.2
29.4
Disability Category
All disabilities
TOP 10 REASONS 10TH GRADERS DROPPED
OUT: 2002-04
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Missed too many school days……………… 44%
Thought it easier to get a GED……..…….. 41%
Poor grades/failing school………………….. 38%
Did not like school …………………………….. 37%
Could not keep up with schoolwork…….. 32%
Got a job…………………………………………… 28%
Pregnancy*……………………………………….. 28%
Felt unable to complete coursework...... 26%
Could not get along with teachers……….. 25%
Could not hold a job at same time….…….22%
*females only
(Rotermund, California Dropout Research Project, Statistical Brief Number 2, May 2007)
WHY STUDENTS GO TO SCHOOL?
Here is how students responded to the question
from most common response to least common:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Because I want to get a degree and go to college………73%
Because of my peers/friends…………………………….........68%
Because it’s the law…………………………………………………58%
Because I want to acquire skills for the workplace…….47%
Because of what I learn in classes……………………………39%
Because I enjoy being in school………………………………..34%
To stay out of trouble………………………………………………..24%
Because of my teacher(s)…………………………………………22%
Because there’s nothing else to do…………………………..22%
(Yazzie-Mintz, “Voices of Students on Engagement: A Report on the 2006 High
School Survey of Student Engagement”)
DROPOUT PREVENTION:
A NATIONAL ISSUE
Status of dropouts (ages 16-24) by repetition of grade:
 Have been retained
 Have never been retained
24.1%
10.1%
National Dropout Prevention Center/Network
YCS Retentions on Record 2013
Retained 0x
(2)
18%
Retained 1x
(5)
45%
Retained 2x
(2)
18%
Retained more
than 2x
18%
(2)
D/O have been ret
73%
Grade Retention and
School Dropout
One grade –
increases risk by 40%
Two grades –
increases risk by 90%
(Roderick, M. PDK Research Bulletin, No. 15, 1995)
Barriers and Risks for Girls
• Pregnancy and family responsibilities
33% of dropouts are pregnant before exiting
• Attendance rates
9% more girls than boys cite attendance as a factor
• Academics
African American, Hispanics & Native Amer./Alaskan
Natives drop out at a higher rate than males or
Caucasians
• Discipline
12th grade Hispanic females’ dropout rate skyrockets
• Family structure and rules
(When Girls Don’t Graduate, We All Fail, 2007)
While no one factor (or even
several factors) puts students at
risk, combinations of factors can
help identify potential dropouts.
Domains
•Individual
•Family
•School
•Community
National Dropout Prevention Center/Network
Individual Factors
• Lack of future orientation
• Inadequate peer relationships
• Drug abuse
• Pregnancy
• Special learning needs
• Depression
Family Factors
• Poverty
• Low expectations
• Abuse
• Mobility of family
• Parents’ level of education
School Factors
• Lack of programs for challenged students
• No significant, interested adult
• Lack of alternatives for learning
• Lack of active learning instruction
• No individual learning plans
• Behavior and discipline issues
• Retention policies
Community Factors
• Lack of involvement with schools
• Lack of support for schools
• Non-caring environment
• Low expectations
• Violence
• Few recreational facilities
RESEARCH TO PRACTICE
Analyzing Risk Factors
Predicting Values
RISK FACTORS BY SCHOOL LEVELS
RISK FACTORS BY SCHOOL LEVELS
Key:
✔ One (1) research study
✔  Two (2) or more research studies
RISK FACTORS SUPPORTED
ACROSS ALL SCHOOL LEVELS
Low achievement

Retention/over age for grade

Poor attendance

https://kinvolved.wordpress.com/2013/12/13/the-most-important-educationreform-reducing-absenteeism/
Low family socioeconomic status

RESEARCH: OBSERVATIONS
ABOUT RISK FACTORS

School dropout has multiple causes

Multiple risk factors better predictor

Life course model, where dropout is not
an event but a process with factors
building and compounding over time
WHAT REALLY MATTERS?”
% that Graduated in Four Years
Grades and Attendance
Average Freshman Grades
Rounded to the nearest 0.5
(The Consortium on Chicago School Research at the University of Chicago)
HOW IMPORTANT IS ATTENDANCE?
Students with many absences were:
• 5 times more likely to use drugs
• 3 times more likely to use alcohol
• 4 times more likely to have low grades
• 6 times more likely to have failed
courses
• 2 times more likely to have low
reading scores
(Working Together, An Education handbook for Alaska Native Families, 2004)
PREDICTIVE CHARACTERISTICS
Predictive Variables Accuracy





Absences………………………………………
Achievement tests (Grade 3)………….
Failing grades (Grades 1-8)……………..
Grade point average (Grade 9)……….
Teacher comments (Grades 1-8)……..
(Barrington & Hendricks, 2001)
66%
70%
85%
90%
63%
EARLY LITERACY DEVELOPMENT
The Need for Early Literacy Development


U.S. companies lose almost $40 billion
annually because of illiteracy
85% of delinquent children and 75% of adult
prison inmates are illiterate
(National Reading Panel, 1999)
SIXTH GRADE PREDICTORS OF
“FALLING OFF TRACK”
Attending school 80% or less of the time
Receiving a poor, final behavior mark
Failing Math
Failing English
(Balfanz and Herzog, 2006)
RESEARCH: DROPOUT PATHWAY
Dropping out of school is the
result of a long process of
disengagement that may begin
before a child enters school.
National Dropout Prevention Center/Network
DROPOUT PREVENTION:
EVERYONE’S PROBLEM
15 Strategies That Help Prevent
Students From Dropping Out
http://www.dropoutprevention.org/effective-strategies
SCHOOL AND COMMUNITY PERSPECTIVE
1. Safe Learning Environments
A comprehensive violence prevention plan, including
conflict resolution, must deal with potential violence as
well as crisis management. A safe learning
environment provides daily experiences, at all grade
levels, that enhance positive social attitudes and
effective interpersonal skills in all students.
Overview | Resources | Model Programs
2. School-Community Collaboration
When all groups in a community provide collective
support to the school, a strong infrastructure sustains
a caring supportive environment where youth can
thrive and achieve.
Overview | Resources | Model Programs
3. Systemic Renewal
A continuing process of evaluating goals and objectives related to
school policies, practices, and organizational structures as they impact
a diverse group of learners. The process includes removing
organizational barriers and providing a system structure that supports
change.
Overview | Resources | Model Programs
SYSTEMIC RENEWAL
Programs providing Strong evidence of
positive effects on student achievement



Direct Instruction
High Schools That Work
Success for All
What Works Clearinghouse (12 programs)
http://www.ies.ed.gov/ncee/wwc/FindWhatWorks.aspx
(Educational Research Service, 1999; IES, 2007)
SYSTEMIC RENEWAL
 Policies
 Populations
 Personnel
 Programs
 Practices
 Partners
 Pennies
DROPOUT PREVENTION:
EVERYONE’S PROBLEM
EARLY INTERVENTIONS
4. Early Childhood Education
Birth-to-five interventions demonstrate that providing a child additional enrichment can
enhance brain development. The most effective way to reduce the number of children
who will ultimately drop out is to provide the best possible classroom instruction from
the beginning of their school experience through the primary grades.
Overview | Resources | Model Programs
5. Early Literacy Development
Early interventions to help low-achieving students improve their reading and writing
skills establish the necessary foundation for effective learning in all other subjects.
Overview | Resources | Model Programs
6. Family Engagement
Research consistently finds that family engagement has a direct, positive effect on
children's achievement and is the most accurate predictor of a student's success in
school.
Overview | Resources | Model Programs
Basic Core Strategies
7. After-School Opportunities
Many schools provide after-school and summer enhancement programs that
eliminate information loss and inspire interest in a variety of areas. Such experiences
are especially important for students at risk of school failure because these
programs fill the afternoon "gap time" with constructive and engaging activities.
Overview | Resources | Model Programs
Service-learning programs involve students
doing meaningful service—usually a project they
select based on real community needs—
that is linked to academic
and personal learning.
(Shumer & Duckenfield, 2004)
8. Alternative Schooling
Alternative schooling provides potential dropouts a variety of
options that can lead to graduation, with programs paying
special attention to the student's individual social needs and
academic requirements for a high school diploma.
Overview | Resources | Model Programs
How do alternative schools help keep
students from dropping out?

Help develop a sense of belonging and accomplishment

Provide smaller class sizes

Focus on helping students with personal and family issues

Develop closer relationships
9. Mentoring/Tutoring
Mentoring is a one-to-one caring, supportive relationship
between a mentor and a mentee that is based on trust.
Tutoring, also a one-to-one activity, focuses on academics and
is an effective practice when addressing specific needs such
as reading, writing, or math competencies.
Overview | Resources | Model Programs
Mentoring has many formats …
Traditional:
One adult with one student
Peer:
One older youth with a younger
Group/Team:
Telementoring:
youth
One or more adults with several
youth
One adult with one youth using
the internet
Best Practices in Mentoring
 Structured program goals and objectives
 Recruitment and training programs for
mentors
 Matching techniques and mentoring activities
 Adequate program support and resources
 Marketing, monitoring, and evaluation
activities
10. Service-Learning
Service-learning connects meaningful community service
experiences with academic learning. This teaching/learning
method promotes personal and social growth, career
development, and civic responsibility and can be a powerful
vehicle for effective school reform at all grade levels.
Overview | Resources | Model Programs
Service-learning programs involve students
doing meaningful service—usually a project
they select based on real community needs—
that is linked to academic
and personal learning.
(Shumer & Duckenfield, 2004)
MAKING THE MOST OF INSTRUCTION
11. Active Learning
Active learning embraces teaching and learning strategies that engage and involve
students in the learning process. Students find new and creative ways to solve
problems, achieve success, and become lifelong learners when educators show them
that there are different ways to learn.
Overview | Resources | Model Programs
Benefits of Cooperative Learning



Team members hold each other accountable
to do a fair share
Helps create positive interpersonal
relationships that value diversity
Higher academic achievement by all students
(Johnson, & Holubec, 1992)
ACTIVE LEARNING
Benefits of Multiple Intelligences/Learning Styles
http://psychology.about.com/od/educationalpsychology/ss/multiple-intell.htm
 Celebrates and values diversity
 Students take a more responsible role in the learning
process
 Teachers help students improve weak areas by encouraging
them to try ways that take them out of their comfort level
(Foster & Shirley, 2004)
12. Career and Technology Education (CTE)
A quality CTE program and a related guidance program are
essential for all students. School-to-work programs recognize that
youth need specific skills to prepare them to measure up to the
larger demands of today's workplace.
Overview | Resources | Model Programs
Best Practices in CTE
 Career guidance K-12
 Workforce counseling
 Cooperative education opportunities
 School-based enterprises
 Work-based programs and internships
 Mentoring and job shadowing
 Career Academies
 Tech Prep
Impact of CTE
•
Enrollment in CTE does not increase the
likelihood of students dropping out. (USDE,
2003)
•
Career guidance increased students remaining in
school from 50% to 85%. (Bauer, 1992)
•
Higher percentages of CTE experiences lower the
probability of dropping out. (Plank, 2001)
EFFECTIVE CAREER-TECHNICAL EDUCATION:
MULTIPLE PATHWAYS
Career Academies enhance motivation and enjoyment which result in:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Increased attendance
Better grades
Fewer failed courses
Lower dropout rates
Better college entrance rates
Maintaining a positive attitude toward school
Increased planning for the future
(Grubb & Stern, Making the Most of Career-Technical
Education: Options for California, 2007)
13. Educational Technology
Technology offers some of the best opportunities for delivering
instruction to engage students in authentic learning, addressing
multiple intelligences, and adapting to students' learning styles.
Overview | Resources | Model Programs
Research on Using Technology
•
Is a positive influence on students at risk of failure (Day, 2002)
•
Teaches “real work applications” to help students succeed outside the classroom
•
Increases student motivation, raises the success rate of students performing
complex tasks, and changes classroom roles and organization
Educational Technology
Best Practices



Student-centered activities,
not teacher-controlled
Integrated into the curriculum,
not an add-on or reward
Students become engaged in learning and
acquire critical thinking and problem-solving
skills (Schmitz, Prescott, & Hunt, 1996).
14. Individualized Instruction
Each student has unique interests and past learning experiences. An individualized
instructional program for each student allows for flexibility in teaching methods and
motivational strategies to consider these individual differences.
Overview | Resources | Model Programs
Encourages the learner to be the producer of
knowledge with...
• Problem-based learning & reciprocal
teaching
• Peer tutoring
• Cooperative learning
• Journaling
• Hands-on projects
• Role playing and simulations
INDIVIDUALIZED INSTRUCTION
Major Components
• Individualizing learning: to recognize
and build upon each child's unique past
experiences and prior knowledge
• Individualizing motivation: to recognize
and use the keys to a child's interests,
goals, and confidence
15. Professional Development
Teachers who work with youth at high risk of academic failure need to
feel supported and have an avenue by which they can continue to
develop skills, techniques, and learn about innovative strategies.
Overview | Resources | Model Programs
The single largest factor affecting the
academic growth of students is the
difference in the effectiveness of
individual classroom teachers
(Tennessee Value-Added Assessment System, Sanders, 1998)
COLLECTING AND ANALYZING DATA AND RISK FACTORS
Dropout Rates:
Total number of YCS dropouts/YCS DO Rate/ NC DO Rate
2012-2013= 11 students 1.60%
2. 45%
2011-2012= 19 students 2.57%
3.01%
2010-2011= 36 students 4.70%
3.43%
2009-2010= 38 students 4.88%
3.75%
2008-2009= 45 students 5.44%
4.27%
2007-2008= 61 students
7.07%
4.97%
2006-2007= 38 students 4.55%
5.27%
2005-2006= 37 students 4.31%
4.74%
2004-2005= 51 students 5.99%
4.74%
2003-2004=
4.70%
4.86%
2002-2003=
3.86%
4.78%
2001-2002=
4.45%
5.25%
Graduation Cohort Rates/YCS DO Rate
2007-2008 4 YEAR COHORT GRAD. RATE= 75.1% / 7.07%
2008-2009 4 YEAR COHORT GRAD. RATE= 80.6% / 5.44%
2009-2010 4 YEAR COHORT GRAD. RATE= 77.2% / 4.88%
2010-2011 4 YEAR COHORT GRAD. RATE= 78.2 / 4.70%
2011-2012 4 YEAR COHORT GRAD. RATE= 82.3% / 2.57%
2012-2013 4 Year COHORT GRAD. RATE= 82.7% / 1.60%
2013-2014 4 Year COHORT GRAD. RATE= 92.1 % / TBA
INSTITUTE OF EDUCATION SCIENCES PRACTICE
GUIDE RECOMMENDATIONS
1. Utilize data systems that support a realistic diagnosis of the number of students
who drop out and that help identify individual students at high risk of dropping
out (diagnostic)
2.
Assign adult advocates to students at risk of dropping out (targeted
intervention)
3.
Provide academic support and enrichment to improve academic performance
(targeted intervention)
4. Implement programs to improve students’ classroom behavior and social skills
(targeted intervention)
5. Personalize the learning environment and instructional process (schoolwide
intervention)
6. Provide rigorous and relevant instruction to better engage students in learning
and provide the skills needed to graduate and to serve them after they leave
school (schoolwide intervention)
NATIONAL TRENDS
Alternative Schooling and Recovery Programs
 Virtual credit recovery
 Private contract and charter schools
Attendance and Truancy Reduction Program
 Aggressive attendance programs by school districts
and communities
 Court-based programs aligned with school efforts
Increased Role of “Counselors”
 Graduation coaches (GA)
 Guidance technicians (St. Paul, MN)
NATIONAL TRENDS AND TIPS
Individualized Learning Plans
 Individual Graduation Plan (South Carolina)
 Six-Year Plan (St. Paul, MN)
Smaller Learning Communities
 Ninth grade academies
 Smaller “houses” within high schools
Transition Programs
 Formal programs between 8th and 9th grades
 Transition counselors throughout multiple grade
DROPOUT RESOURCES
National Dropout Prevention Center
www.dropoutprevention.org
National Institute on the Education of At-Risk Students
www.ed.gov/offices/OERI/At-Risk
Center for Research on the Education of Students Placed At Risk (CRESPAR)
www.csos.jhu.edu/crespar
DROPOUT RESOURCES
http://www.csos.jhu.edu/crespar/techReports/Report70.pdf
http://all4ed.org/reports-factsheets/the-economic-benefits-from-halving-the-dropoutrate-a-boom-to-businesses-in-the-nations-largest-metropolitan-areas