Poverty, Proficiency, and the Common Core State Standards 2014 Collaborative Conference for Student Achievement, March 3-5, 2014 Greensboro, North Carolina Seen on a cup … Closing the Gap Improving Minority and At-Risk Student Achievement Presenters Dr. Michael P. Gallagher michael.gallagher@dpi.nc.gov Dr. Vinetta Bell vinetta.bell@dpi.nc.gov North Carolina Department of Public Instruction Division of Accountability Services Division of Data, Research and Federal Policy Introduction • Mind the Gap. The relationship between poverty and academic proficiency. • This session examines quantitative and qualitative links. • New Standards: Opportunities and Hazards, gap-wise. Quantitative Analysis Michael P. Gallagher, Ph.D. Mathematics Test Development Assessment Development Section Division of Accountability Services “Just the facts, …” Joe Friday • Long-term trend: National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) • North Carolina 2012-2013 EOG tests: aligned with Common Core State Standards (CCSS) at the school level. • Groups for Comparison: Black / White and School Lunch Eligible / Not Eligible Long Term • Nationally, trends are moving in a good direction, but quite slowly. • NAEP long term report (June 2013) shows reading and math gaps narrowing and overall scores increasing. Available at nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/ NAEP Long-Term Trend Math (9-year-old students – White / Black) White Black Gap 1973 225 190 2012 252 226 Change Up 27 Up 36 35 25 Down 10 NAEP Long-Term Trend Math (13-year-old students – White / Black) White Black Gap 1973 274 228 2012 293 264 Change Up 19 Up 36 46 28 Down 18 NAEP Long Term Math Observations • Both Black and White students showed major improvements. • Black improvement was greater than White, about one standard deviation. • Black student improvement is up to about where White students were in 1973. NAEP Long-Term Trend Reading (9-year-old students – White / Black) White Black Gap 1973 214 170 2012 229 206 Change Up 15 Up 36 44 23 Down 21 NAEP Long-Term Trend Reading (13-year-old students – White / Black) 1973 2012 Change White Black 261 222 270 247 Up 9 Up 25 Gap 39 23 Down 16 NAEP Long Term Reading Observations • Black – White gap was cut one-half to one-third. • White students saw some improvement, Black students quite strong improvement. • Black students in 2012 were a bit below White student performance in 1973. Changing Focus to NC (NAEP state data from 1992) • In general, NC started out below the national average, but NC presently is at or above the U.S. average. • http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/states/ NC - NAEP Trend Math • White and Black Fourth Grade Students – NC averages, followed by U.S. in parentheses (…) White 1992 223 (227) 2013 Change 254 (250) Up 31 (23) Black Gap 193 (192) 30 (35) 230 (224) Up 37 (32) 24 (26) Down 6 (9) More Quant! ……... And a Shift • We now move from national and state levels to school levels. • The categories will be “eligible for free or reduced-price lunch” and “not eligible.” Activity List 3-5 factors that affect how well a school performs on achievement tests. Rate each of those factors according to how strongly they are related to poverty: 0, very little; 1, somewhat; or 2, strongly. Compare with one person next to you. Pair-Share Feedback • Let’s share just a few of your factors that you think affect how well a school performs on achievement tests before we continue. • Spontaneous responses are appropriate (the popcorn method). NC Poverty and Proficiency – A Guided Tour Guided, that is, by Common Core State Standards (CCSS) in the area of Statistics and Probability. … Focus will be on the Triangle: Wake, Johnston, Durham, Orange and Chapel Hill – Carrboro. Statistics in CCSA • The Common Core State Standards (CCSA), adopted by NC in 2010, include a statistics component for high school students. • This follows emphasis from the National Council of Teachers of Math. …nctm.org • An understanding of key statistical concepts can inform public discussion. Standard 8.SPA.1 “Construct and interpret scatterplots for bivariate measurement data to investigate patterns of association between two quantities. Describe patterns such as clustering, outliers, positive or negative association, linear association, and nonlinear association.” Two Variables and a Scatterplot • What does a close relationship look like? • The correlation coefficient, r, measures the strength and direction of a relationship. • r close to 0 means no or weak relationship; r close to +1 or -1 means a strong relationship. Who’s on First? (r = 0.31) Let’s look at Poverty and Achievement by school. • Poverty will be indicated by the percent of students on free or reduced-price lunch (frl). • Achievement will be indicated by the Ready Performance Composite on the assessments from 2012-2013. r = 0.92 r = 0.96 r = 0.79 High Schools in the Triangle 90.0 y = -0.8704x + 81.196 R² = 0.6182 Ready Peerformance Composite 2013 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Free Reduced Lunch Percent 60 70 80 Cluster of Standards: Interpret Linear Models •HSS-ID.C.8 “Compute (using technology) and interpret the correlation coefficient of a linear fit.” •HSS-ID.C.9 “Distinguish between correlation and causation.” • The correlations between poverty and performance composite are very strong at both the elementary school (0.92) and middle school (0.96) levels. • But, what about causality? Correlation and Causation • If one variable causes another, that implies they are correlated. Causality Correlation. Yes! • But if two variables are correlated, they may or may not be causally related. Correlation Causality. Maybe. Correlation & Causality Some Questions to Explore • Who’s on first? i.e., which variable causes which? • Is there a third variable causing both? • Are there multiple factors wrapped up into one variable? Standard HSS-ID.B.6b “Informally assess the fit of a function by plotting and analyzing residuals.” Residuals. In other words, how far above or below the regression line are the data points? What can it tell us if a particular school is well above or below the line? Residuals – any large ones? • One school at 53% Free and ReducedPrice Lunch (frl) and 59.5 performance level composite (plc) with a residual of 14. (Predicted plc = 45.0) • Another school at 87% frl and 34.4 plc. with a residual of 11. (Predicted plc = 23.2) Standard HSS-ID.C.7 • Interpret the slope (rate of change) and the intercept (constant term) of a linear model in the context of the data. • Here is the linear model for elementary: Performance Composite = 79 – 0.64 x %FRL Interpreting the Elementary Model • Intercept or constant term = 79 … So if there are no FRL students, the performance composite predicted would be 79. • Slope = minus 0.64 … So for each increase of 10% in FRL, the predicted performance composite drops 6.4%. Middle School Model Performance Composite = 81 – 0.74 x %FRL • Intercept … pretty close to elementary. • Slope … steeper: performance drops more quickly as %FRL increases. Transition from Quantitative to Qualitative Analysis •Back to thinking about causality. Research is being done using quantitative methods to explore the factors associated with poverty that may impact academic performance. •Fantuzzo et al., for example, use a strong correlation model to get closer. Risk Factors • Study by John Fantuzzo et al. Academic achievement of African-American boys: A city-wide, community-based investigation of risk and resilience. Journal of School Psychology, 50 (2012) The Fantuzzo Study • Third graders in Philadelphia in 20052006. Cumulative Risk Experience from birth to grade 3. Sum of 6 factors: 1. Child Maltreatment 2. Low Maternal Education 3. Homelessness Fantuzzo … continued 4. Inadequate Prenatal Care 5. Preterm / Low Birth Weight 6. Lead Exposure The magnitude of the risk gap between Black and White is about the magnitude of the achievement gap. (p.572) The Fantuzzo Finding • “… [W]ithin a population of young AfricanAmerican boys in a large urban school district, school attendance and task engagement have the ability to greatly influence the relations between early risk experiences – beyond poverty – and early academic achievement.” (p. 574) Implications • Poverty affects school attendance. • Poverty affects task engagement. • Poverty influences the relationship between early risk experiences and early academic achievement. • Early academic achievement influences later academic success and the global preparedness of College Career Ready (CCR) students. Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE) Study On your own …. The Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE) Study is one of the largest investigations ever conducted to assess associations between childhood maltreatment and later-life health and well-being. cdc.gov/ace/ Transition to Qualitative Analysis Let’s look now at the relationship between poverty and a qualitative analysis of student performance. Qualitative Analysis Vinetta Bell, Ed.D., NBCT Research Associate Division of Data, Research and Federal Policy Office of the State Superintendent, NCDPI Did you know? The combined number of children living in poverty constitutes the largest school district in the United States. Source: Layton, Lyndsey (2013). “Study: Poor Children are Now the Majority in American Public Schools in South, West.” Published Wednesday, October 16, 2013, by The Washington Post. TABLE 1 : Overview of Childhood Poverty and Disadvantage in the United States (Table is from Coley et al., 2013.) • All children in poverty 22% • Black children in poverty 28% • Hispanic children in poverty 25% • Children in extreme poverty 4% • Households with children who are food insecure 21% • Children with unstable parent employment 32% Source: Coley, Richard J., & Baker, Bruce (2013). Poverty and Education: Finding the Way Forward. Educational Testing Service (ETS), p. 7. www.ets.org/research (pdf, 60 pp.) Indicator 7 Family Characteristics of 5- to 17-Year-Olds In 2011, higher percentages of Black (37 percent), Hispanic (34 percent), American Indian/Alaska Native (33 percent), Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander (32 percent) children, and children of two or more races (20 percent) were living in families below the poverty threshold than were White (12 percent) and Asian (14 percent) children. Source: Aud, Susan et al. (2012). The Condition of Education 2012. ies, National Center for Education Statistics, and U.S. Department of Education. May 2012, p. 28. (pdf, 378 pp.) Poverty’s Influence Upon Gifted Impoverished Students • Low expectations, • poverty, • weaker family supports, and • poor urban schools make it especially difficult for high fliers among the disadvantaged to reach their natural altitude in school. Source: Andy Smarick (2013). Closing America’s High-achievement Gap (p. 34, see also footnote 12), originally published in Lilia M. Ruban and Sally M. Reis, “Identification and Assessment of Gifted Students with Learning Disabilities.” Theory into Practice, Spring 2005, pp. 115-124, jstor.org.proxygw.wrlc.org/stable/pdfplus/3497030.pdf Why is poverty so pervasive? • The Investment Model • The Family Stress Model The Investment Model • Claim #1: Families that live above the poverty line have adequate and increasingly abundant funds and other resources to invest in their children’s formal and informal education, which accounts for much of their children’s academic achievements. • Claim #2: Families that are poor do not have the funds and other resources to invest in their children’s formal and informal education, which accounts for much of their children’s academic struggles. • Conclusion: Poverty exacerbates the academic achievement and social-emotional-mental development of children living in families that have insufficient funds and resources. Source: Cooper, Kerris, and Stewart, Kitty (2013). Does Money Affect Children’s Outcomes? A Systemic Review. JRF (Joseph Rountree Foundation). www.jrf.org.uk Summary (pdf, 4 pp.) Full Report (pdf, 82 pp.) (See pp. 39-44 of full report.) The Family Stress Model • Claim #1: Families that have sufficient funds and other resources to live above the level of basic survival live less stressful lives, which allows their children to concentrate on their academic studies without worrying about basic survival needs or the resulting stress. • Claim #2: Families that have insufficient funds and other resources frequently face basic survival needs that produce increasingly stressful living conditions and fractured relationships, which deny their children the ability to concentrate on their academic studies because of worrying about basic survival needs and the resulting stress of such living conditions. • Conclusion: Children who live in poverty frequently do not succeed academically because they are too focused upon their basic survival needs and the resulting stress that impacts families living in impoverished conditions. Source: Cooper, Kerris, and Stewart, Kitty (2013). Does Money Affect Children’s Outcomes? A Systemic Review. JRF (Joseph Rountree Foundation). www.jrf.org.uk Summary (pdf, 4 pp.) Full Report (pdf, 82 pp.) (See pp. 39-44 of full report.) Prevailing Views About Poverty’s Impact upon Education • View #1: The eradication of poverty will solve all or most educational problems, including the persistent achievement gap and other inequities in society; therefore, poverty must be eliminated in our society first before complete success in school is possible for all children, especially for children living in poverty. • View #2: We must work simultaneously to eradicate poverty and to close the achievement gaps in society because the entrenched effects of poverty defy easy resolution or even full identification. • One of Many Conclusions: Our economic-political-educational responses to the impact of poverty upon the schooling process and on students’ academic achievement are related to and dependent upon our view of poverty and its impact upon students and the schooling process. Sources: See list of references provided for this presentation for examples of scholars and other thinkers and writers associated with different views about poverty and its impact upon education and the schooling process. Some Contributing Factors to Poverty’s Impact upon Children • Single parent homes • Other family compositions (e.g., absence of father in the home, grandparents as parents, extended families) • Limited parental education (including low wage earners) • Unreliable and possibly misappropriated benefits • Impoverished communities (e.g., safety and grocery issues) • Family’s frequent mobility (e.g., housing and homelessness) • Domestic abuse, drugs, gangs, and other forms of abuse • Mother’s mental health (a recent research focus) • Societal attitudes toward poverty and the poor (e.g., Puritan ethic that influences a voter’s attitude toward the poor) How does poverty affect curriculum and standards? • Poverty consumes everyone’s attention. • Struggling students who read below grade level are already behind academically when more rigorous standards are introduced. Transition to the Common Core State Standards (CCSS) Let’s look now at the impact of the Common Core State Standards Initiative (CCSSI) upon students, especially upon students who live in impoverished circumstances. Common Core State Standards (CCSS) Initiative • The Standards for Mathematical Practice • The Standards for English Language Arts [ELA] and Literacy in History/Social Studies, Science, and Technical Subjects http://www.corestandards.org http://www.ncpublicschools.org/acre/standards/ Common Core State Standards (CCSS): Increased Rigor • K-12 CCSS in mathematics require students to think critically about their process as they perform more challenging mathematical functions. • K-12 CCSS in ELA and Literacy require students to read progressively complex imagined and informational texts. CCSS: The Expectations of More Rigorous Standards • Students who are struggling under the weight of poverty and low academic performance are now faced with mastering 21st century globally competitive rigorous standards. • Teachers must engage students at their current academic levels and stretch them to meet (preferably to master) more rigorous standards. Common Core and Poverty – Opportunities • Student, parents, and teachers know early on what performance is on-track for College and Career Ready (CCR). • Common Core State Standards get at very important learning. For an example, remember the statistics we discussed. Common Core and Poverty – Dangers • Motivation: More students are getting a negative message on their performance. Messaging is critical so that students do not decide that they can’t learn. • Bad grades for many schools: If staff is working hard and smart, then how do we avoid more harm than good? Closure • Poverty undoubtedly affects student performance in negative ways. • The total elimination of poverty might be impossible or improbable, but the negative effects of poverty can be diminished. • The increased rigorous expectations of standards upon all students cannot be ignored. Questions/Comments Contact Information • Dr. Michael P. Gallagher Mathematics Consultant, NCDPI michael.gallagher@dpi.nc.gov 919.807.3777 • Dr. Vinetta Bell Research Associate, NCDPI vinetta.bell@dpi.nc.gov 919.807.3800 Poverty, Proficiency, and the Common Core State Standards 2014 Collaborative Conference for Student Achievement March 3-5, 2014 Greensboro, North Carolina michael.gallagher@dpi.nc.gov vinetta.bell@dpi.nc.gov Links and Articles NAEP long term report (June 2013) all the way from 1972. National level. Graphs provide a visual way to follow the ethnicity gap across about forty years. nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard NAEP state level data from the early 1990s. Includes a poverty breakout. nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/states School or LEA level information for North Carolina ncpublicschools.org/accountability/reporting/ click on READY Accountability Model Results; then use the pull-down menus to select LEA and school; point to the top of the Performance Composite bar graph for pass rate; click on “Federal AMO …” to find number economically disadvantaged. For further analysis: data for North Carolina. Some data skills are needed. ncpublicschools.org/accountability/reporting/datasets Common Core State Standards for Mathematics. corestandards.org/math Standards referenced in this presentation are from the High School domain: “Interpreting Categorical and Quantitative Data.” Also, we model the relationship between poverty and achievement, following Number 4 in the “Standards for Mathematical Practices.” Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE) The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) tracks more than 17,000 participants for the relationship between child risk factors and adult physical and mental health. cdc.gov/ace/ Risk Factors. John Fantuzzo, et al. Academic Achievement of African-American boys: A city-wide, community-based investigation of risk and resilience. Journal of School Psychology. 50 (2012) Selected References for Poverty: Poverty, Proficiency, and the Common Core State Standards (presentation) Co-Presenters: Dr. Michael P. Gallagher and Dr. Vinetta Bell, NCDPI 2014 Collaborative Conference March 3-5, 2014 Selected References for Poverty Presentation 2014 Collaborative Conference March 3-5, 2014 Poverty, Proficiency, and the Common Core State Standards Co-Presenters: Dr. Michael P. Gallagher and Dr. Vinetta Bell North Carolina Department of Public Instruction Note: These references represent some of the texts that address the issue of poverty as it relates to education and the schooling process. Available links to a source as well as the text type and total number of pages are included. Copyright prevents distribution of these texts by the co-presenters. (1) Almy, Sarah, and Theokas, Christina (2010). Not Prepared for Class: High-Poverty Schools Continue to Have Fewer In-Field Teachers. The Education Trust. November 2010. (pdf, 6 pp.) (2) Aud, Susan et al. (2012). The Condition of Education 2012. ies. National Center for Education Statistics, and U.S. Department of Education. May 2012. (pdf, 378 pp.) (3) Baker, Bruce D. (2013). “Petrilli’s Hammer & Poverty Has Nothing to do with PISA Argument.” Posted online on December 4, 2013, School Finance 101. Retrieved December 6, 2013, from http://schoolfinance101.wordpress.com/2013/12/04/petrillis-hammer-the-poverty-has-nothing-to-do-withpisa-argument/ (WORD, 9 pp.) (4) Barton, Paul E., & Coley, Richard J. (2010). The Black-White Achievement Gap: When Progress Stopped. Educational Testing Service (ETS). July 2010. www.ets.org/research/pic (pdf, 42 pp.) (5) Blank, Rolf K. (2011). Closing the Achievement Gap for Economically Disadvantaged Students? Analyzing Change Since No Child Left Behind Using State Assessments and the National Assessment of Educational Progress. Council of Chief State School Officers (CCSSO). April 2011. www.ccsso.org (pdf, 26 pp.) (6) Brooks-Gunn, Jeanne, & Duncan, Greg J. (1997). The Effects of Poverty on Children. The Future of Children. Children and Poverty, Vol. 7, No. 2, Summer/Fall 1997. (pdf, 17 pp.) (7) Castro, Quassan (2014). “Twelve Tips All Educators Must Know About Educating African American and Latino Students.” Published online on January 6, 2014, in Huffington Post, Black Voices. Retrieved Monday, January 6, 2014, from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/quassancastro/twelve-tips-all-educators_b_4533419.html (WORD, 4 pp.) 1 Selected References for Poverty: Poverty, Proficiency, and the Common Core State Standards (presentation) Co-Presenters: Dr. Michael P. Gallagher and Dr. Vinetta Bell, NCDPI 2014 Collaborative Conference March 3-5, 2014 (8) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2013). http://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/childmatreatment/consequences.pdf Child Maltreatment Consequences Data and Statistics Major Findings Pyramid Related Links (9) Child Welfare Information Gateway. Children’s Bureau/ACYF/ACF/HHS (2013). Long-Term Consequences of Child Abuse and Neglect. Fact Sheet. https://www.childwelfare.gov https://www.childwelfare.gov/pubs/factsheets/long_term_consequences.cfm (10 pp.) (10) Children’s Defense Fund (2010). America’s Children. (pdf, 185 pp.) (11) Children’s Defense Fund (2008). Child Poverty in America. (pdf, 6 pp.) Christensen, Rob (2013). “Commentary: Christensen: The Fall and Rise of NC Poverty” Retrieved Sunday, November 10, 2013, from WRAL.com http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/11/09/3355851/christensen-the-fall-and-rise.html (WORD, 2 pp.) (12) (13) Clotfelter, Charles T., Ladd, Helen F., & Vigdor, Jacob L. (2013). Racial and Economic Diversity in North Carolina’s Schools: An Update. Duke [University] Sanford School of Public Policy. Sanford Working Papers Series. January 16, 2013. (pdf, 45 pp.) (14) Coley, Richard J., & Baker, Bruce (2013). Poverty and Education: Finding the Way Forward. Educational Testing Service (ETS). The ETS Center for Research on Human Capital and Education. July 2013. www.ets.org/research (pdf, 60 pp.) (15) Conley, D.T. et al. (2011). Lining up: The relationship between the Common Core State Standards and five sets of comparison standards. (pdf, 86 pp.) (16) Cooper, Kerris, and Stewart, Kitty (2013). Does Money Affect Children’s Outcomes? A Systemic Review. JRF (Joseph Rountree Foundation). www.jrf.org.uk Summary (pdf, 4 pp.) Full Report (pdf, 82 pp.) (17) Edelman, Marian Wright, and Engler, John (2013). Meet the Class of 2025: Investing in the Education of Young Children—Money Well Spent. Scholastic. (pdf, 10 pp.) (18) Ellen, Ingrid Gould et al. (2012). Do Federally Assisted Households Have Access to High Performing Public Schools? Poverty & Race Research Action Council (PRRAC). Civil Rights Research. November 2012. (pdf, 24 pp.) (19) Feaste, N.S. et al. (2002). A Comparison of Initiatives: 1960s to 1990s – Closing Educational Achievement Gaps. (pdf, 27 pp.) 2 Selected References for Poverty: Poverty, Proficiency, and the Common Core State Standards (presentation) Co-Presenters: Dr. Michael P. Gallagher and Dr. Vinetta Bell, NCDPI 2014 Collaborative Conference March 3-5, 2014 (20) Finder, Alan (2005). As Test Scores Jump, Raleigh Credits Integration by Income. New York Times online. (WORD, 5 pp.) (21) Greenstone, Michael et al. (2012). A Dozen Economic Facts About K-12 Education. The Hamilton Project. (pdf, 28 pp.) (22) Hansen, Michael (2013). Right-sizing the Classroom: Making the Best of Great Teachers. (pdf, 36 pp.) (23) Hartman, C. et al. (2002). “High classroom turnover: How children get left behind.” (WORD, 5 pp.) (24) Henderson, A.T., and Mapp, Karen L. (2002). A new wave of evidence: The impact of school, family, and community connections on student achievement. Annual Synthesis 2002. Austin, TX: National Center for Family & Community Connections with Schools. 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