THE NEW HAVEN GUN INJURY & VIOLENCE NETWORK MONITORING AND
RESPONSE PROGRAM
A Working Description
March 2014
What if gun violence could be tracked and treated like a contagious disease? Not
metaphorically, but literally: what if a data-driven system could monitor the health and
safety of individuals in such a way that allowed the swift and smart mobilization of
resources during “outbreaks” of gun violence and crime? Such a monitoring and response
approach has been used to combat other health epidemics such as cholera outbreaks or
the transmission of HIV, but similar efforts have not yet been applied to social epidemics
like gun injuries and violence. The current project—tentatively titled, the New Haven
Gun Injury & Violence Network Monitoring Program, or GIVnet—will leverage the
growing field of network science to monitor and map the spread of gun violence within
our city and to coordinate a collaborative data-driven response effort directly to those
individuals at immediate risk of being the victims of gun violence or experiencing the
trauma of gun violence. Put another way, GIVnet will use cutting-edge network analytics
to develop a gun injury and violence monitoring system to detect, in “real-time,”
individuals most immediately affected by gun violence. Such a system will then be used
to coordinate rapid response, prevention, and intervention efforts throughout the city
directly to those most immediately affected by gun violence, their immediate and
extended family, friends, and community.
A NETWORK APPROACH TO GUN VIOLENCE PREVENTION
Each year more than 10,000 people in the United States are shot and killed by
another person, while another 60,000 are wounded by guns in assaults. But, the trauma
and consequences associated with gun violence are not evenly distributed across
populations and places. Gun violence disproportionally and unequally affects certain
populations and communities—especially young minority men in socially and
economically disadvantaged communities. For example, the rate of gun homicide
victimization for African American males is more than fifty-times higher than the
national average, and an African American male born in the in the United States today
has a life-span that is, on average, seven years less than a similar white male solely
because of the effects of gun homicide.
On top of these alarmingly high rates of gun homicide and violence, mounting
evidence suggests that the risk of individual victimization is even more severely
concentrated within small geographic spaces and small social networks. For example, a
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recent study of non-fatal shootings in Chicago found that 70 % of all non-fatal gunshot
injuries occurred in identifiable networks comprised of less than 6% of the city’s total
population. Likewise, a study of one high-crime community in Boston found that 85%
of all fatal and non-fatal gunshot injuries occurred in a single network of 763 unique
individuals (approximately 2% of that community’s population). This concentration of
gun violence within small networks such as these has important implications for how we
assess overall risk and exposure to gun violence—namely, the structure of such networks
and one’s placement in them dramatically increases the risk of being shot or exposure to
gun-related trauma even within high-crime communities. In the Chicago case, for
instance, simply being in the identified network increased one’s risk of being a victim a
staggering 900% even after considering traditional risk factors such as age, race, gender,
and neighborhood conditions.
More than just sharpening an
overall risk assessment, network
science can (quite literally) map the
violence landscape of an entire
community or city and thereby
provide a schematic of the social
connections
among
those
individuals most likely to be a
victim of gun violence. Figure 1, for
instance,
shows
the
social
relationships of the 763 individuals
from the Boston study just
mentioned. Each one of the nodes
represents a unique individual,
while each one of the “ties” linking
the nodes represents a known
association
among
individuals
established from existing sources of
police and administrative data. The
red nodes in Figure 1 are the victims
of a fatal or non-fatal gunshot
injury.
Figure 1. Co-Offending Network of 763 Individuals in
a high-crime Community in Boston. Note: red nodes
are victims of fatal and non-fatal gunshot injuries.
Even a cursory look at Figure 1 demonstrates the power of such a networked
approach: violence tends to “cluster” in such networks, placing particular people at
severe levels of exposure to gun violence and trauma. More to the point, network
analyses like these provide direct maps to individuals in harm’s way. The nodes in Figure
1 are not hypothetical cases or a computer simulation—they are real people, most of
whom are already in contact with the criminal justice, public health, or social service
systems. Just like network monitoring of other health epidemics and disease outbreaks,
such a network approach helps identify (potentially ahead of time) which individuals are
most likely to get shot. Such an approach enhances traditional gun violence reduction
efforts by leveraging network science to more accurately monitor and map the landscape
of individual risk within vulnerable populations and communities.
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GIVnet: DEVELOPING A GUN VIOLENCE MONITORING AND RESPONSE PROGRAM
GIVnet starts from the basic premise that preventing the spread of gun violence and
the associated trauma can be well-served by a theoretically-motivated and data-driven
effort that provides services directly and rapidly to those individuals affected by
shootings. GIVnet is not intended to be a panacea for all of the social and economic
conditions associated with gun violence—it will not build schools, end poverty, or
eliminate inequality. Rather, GIVnet’s goal is to develop a coordinated rapid response to
gun violence akin to emergency medical care. Even the best emergency medical care
cannot “undo” a shooting or change entire communities, but it can save lives by
providing effective and timely treatment of injuries. The hope is that treating gun
violence and trauma in such a data-driven and precise way can save lives and, in so
doing, improve the well-being of families and communities. Immediate responses to gun
violence can aid in the recovery process and bolster the resilience of individuals, families,
peers, and neighbohroods. Network science can bolster such a project by using “big
data”—electronic information readily available across multiple city-level systems such as
police, education, and public health agencies—to detect such network patterns in the
event of a shooting and thereby help identify timely and strategic points of intervention.
The GIVnet program entails three components: (1) a data-driven review and
monitoring process; (2) a coordinated outreach and service provision effort directed
towards those points of intervention identified in the review processes; and (3) the
systematic research, follow-up, and evaluation of the GIVnet process and the health,
well-being, and safety of those individuals who are part of the program.
(1) A Network Based Monitoring Process
At the core of GIVnet is a data-driven and transparent “shooting review” process. Based
on similar review processes in cities such as Milwaukee and Boston, GIVnet will create a
procedure that brings together actors and organizations from across the city that deal
directly with gun violence. Participants will include (but are not limited to): law
enforcement, researchers, public health officials, educators, outreach workers, and
community organizations. Every time a shooting occurs—or on a regularly scheduled
interval—this Review Board will convene to discuss each and every shooting, the
relevant actors, motives, circumstances, etc. GIVnet, however, moves beyond simple
review of the “facts” of each shooting by recreating network maps and conducting
analyses of each shooting victim, participants, and other potentially affected parties.
From such analyses, the Review Board will work together to (1) identify strategic points
of intervention within the networks; and (2) to devise the most timely and effective
manner of intervention. As discussed below, rather than apply some pre-packaged “onesize-fits-all” program, GIVnet will draw from a pool of proven effective violence
treatment options, each tailored to the specific shooting. Figure 2 presented a simplified
and stylized version of this process.
Suppose, for example, a shooting occurs and the review process uncovers a small
network that is affected by the event. This small network contains roughly five
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individuals, including the victim (the red node in Figure 2) and his/her associates. Upon
review of all the facts and data, the Board may discover that individuals in the network
are students at a particular school or members of a particular family and then decides to
leverage this information in crafting their response. In a case such as this, the Board
might direct case workers, probation officers, or teachers who already have direct contact
with the youth to reach them quickly, conduct a needs assessment, or provide immediate
services. In contrast, a different approach or set of services might be warranted if the
Board establishes that those involved or affected by the shootings were members of a
particular street gang. In this latter case, the Board might leverage the relationships of
specific outreach workers or police whom have contact with said groups and use those as
points of intervention or service provision. The goal of the GIVnet review process is to
uncover such precise information and quickly mobilize violence prevention and relief
efforts, and to do so in the way most appropriate for each shooting.
FIGURE 2. Summary of Proposed GIVnet Program
Shooting Incident
Yale GIVNet Monitoring
Project!
!
network analysis & shooting review
Law Enforcement (and
collaborative) Efforts
Community Based Violence
Prevention Efforts
Public Health Efforts
City, Family, and
Educational Services
Shooting Network
The GIVNet review process needs to be more than “just another meeting” and,
instead, become an institutionalized practice—a way of “doing things” in New Haven.
The most obvious overt objective is to more efficiently and quickly mobilize coordinated
efforts to address gun violence. But, the less obvious—but no less important objective—
is to foster a sense of trust between the working parties and between the working parties
and the victims, families, and communities most affected by gun violence. One of the
biggest barriers to successfully servicing high-crime communities and those at risk of
being a gunshot victim is distrust and cynicism of “the system.” All too often, responses
to gun violence (especially those driven solely by law enforcement) foster distrust—a
particular acute problem in high-crime communities that are disproportionally affected by
the criminal justice system. To be effective, the GIVnet Review Process needs to not
simply overcome this obstacle, but also to help rebuild and repair the trust many highcrime communities have for the criminal justice, public health, and educational systems.
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To this end, the GIVnet Review Process must bring all relevant players to the table and,
at the same time, ensure the review process is transparent—meaning the procedures and
findings must be clear and fair. While the Review Board should not reveal any
confidential information beyond those with appropriate access to such data, the process
itself should be inclusive and procedurally fair. The review process should be run and
overseen by an agreed upon group, and be conducted in a neutral location.
(2) Components and Contact: Navigating the Networks of Shootings
The GIVnet review process helps identify a network and produce a map to help navigate
the social network around specific shooting incidents. But it will be the various partners
that actually do such work of navigating these networks and reaching specific
individuals. GIVnet does not seek to devise new programs, but instead to leverage
already existing and effective gun violence reduction strategies. The novelty of GIVnet,
then, is in its strategic data-driven assessment and the coordination of existing best
practices. One of the first tasks will entail the Review Board developing a list of all
relevant actors, organizations, and agencies, but especially those that have a proven track
record of effective responses to gun injury and violence. While a complete list of such
actors still needs to be developed, it is essential that the Board consistent of
representatives from law enforcement, city and state government, courts and corrections,
public health agencies, educators, outreach and social work entities, and especially
community-based organizations. GIVnet will work closely with existing collaborative
efforts, including those that already bring together a diverse set of agencies and services.
GIVnet is designed to augment, assist, and support existing violence prevention
efforts: to help them respond more rapidly and directly with at-risk individuals. The
expectation for participating agencies is their dedication to assist (a) in the review process
and (b) in direct outreach efforts to victims and those affected by gun violence as
developed by the Review Board. While such engagement may take a variety of forms,
one unique form of engagement would entail a custom notification process whereby a
group of representatives from the GIVnet Board will make direct contact with individuals
to begin outreach and service efforts. Current research on law enforcement, street
outreach, and trauma responses to gun violence suggests that this type of direct outreach
not only enhances the legitimacy of the program and its actors, but can also potentially
yield substantive reductions in gun violence.
A wealth of existing resources in New Haven will be engaged to make GIVnet a
reality. In particular, GIVnet will enlist the support of the numerous community-based
and faith-based organizations currently involved in gun violence reduction efforts,
including: The New Haven Family Alliance, Data Haven, Yale-Haven Hospital, Public
Allies Connecticut, and Project Longevity, among others. In addition, several centers and
institutes at Yale have extensive experience in gun violence reduction and trauma
programs, including The Yale Law School, the Yale Child Study Center, The Institute for
Social and Policy Studies, The School of Public Health, and the newly formed Yale
Institute for Network Science (YINS). In particular, GIVnet will design and implement
its network analytic capacity through YINS and determine to what extent the proposed
review process can piggy-back on existing efforts at Yale.
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GIVnet will not be possible without the support and working partnership with the
New Haven Police Department (NHPD). The leadership of NHPD is essential for at least
two reasons. First, NHPD—and, especially, Chief Dean Esserman—have an excellent
track record in fostering the types community-police needed to make GIVnet not just a
reality, but also a success. The formation of the Review Board and the uniting of actors
from across New Haven will depend quite heavily on the leadership of NHPD and the
pre-existing relationships the department has cultivated in this area. Second, the Review
Process and network analysis depends on police data and resources. On the front end,
arrest and shooting data from NHPD are required for to build the types of network
information needed to drive analyses. Furthermore, given the high-proportion of gunshot
victims already in contact with the criminal justice system, NHPD resources will
undoubtedly play a central role in establishing contact with many of those involved in
shooting incidents. Current discussions with NHPD leadership suggest a strong a strong
willingness to play a leadership role in developing the GIVnet program.
(3) Research and Evaluation
Just as GIVnet seeks to use those programs and components that have a trackrecord of positive effects in reducing gun violence, so too will GIVnet subject itself to
research and evaluation in order to assess its impact on gun violence in New Haven. A
group of researchers at Yale—from some of the departments and centers mentioned
above—will track and evaluate all of GIVnet’s efforts. In particular, GIVnet provides a
unique opportunity to asses the efficacy of individual violence prevention efforts, as well
as the efficiency of the proposed network analytic procedures and systems. Key to such
an evaluation will be the tracking of individuals who are the recipients of the Board’s
intervention efforts. The GIVnet Research Team (RT) will gather data on each shooting
incident as well as the decisions and interventions decided upon by the Board. The RT
will then track as closely as possible the subsequent health and safety of those individuals
who are contacted by GIVnet. At the most basic level, such tracking will leverage the
same sources of data used on the front end of GIVnet: police and other public records. In
addition, the RT will also seek permission from the participants to gather additional
survey, health, and other information that might assist in the research and evaluation.
ANDREW V. PAPACHRISTOS, PH.D.
Associate Professor of Sociology, Public Health,
& Law (adjunct)
Andrew.papachristos@yale.edu
Cell: (773) 919-6900
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