Box A: The Recovery in Asian Trade
Graph A1
Export Volumes
March quarter 2008 = 100
Index
Index
India*
US
100
100
Euro area*
Other
east
Asia*
China**
80
80
Japan*
60
2008
2009
2009
2008
60
* RBA estimates for September quarter 2009
** Refers to merchandise exports only
Sources: CEIC; RBA; Thomson Reuters
Graph A2
East Asia* – Exports by Destination
January 2006 = 100, US$ values
Index
Index
Other
(23%)
180
180
The sharp downturn in the global
economy was associated with a
large contraction in world trade as
demand for consumer durables and
capital goods declined. Over the past
six months, however, international
trade has begun to pick up, with this
turnaround being most pronounced
in east Asia (Graph A1). Exports
from China, Japan and the smaller
economies of the region have all
increased over recent months, after
earlier sharp falls. Indian exports
have also recovered strongly in the
September quarter, after contracting
over the first half of 2009. In contrast
to developments in Asia, exports
from the United States and the euro
area remained weak over the first half
of 2009 and have risen only modestly
since then.
The rise in exports from many
of the economies of east Asia since
140
140
the early part of the year has been
Japan
(10%)
underpinned by strong demand
100
100
US
from China as well as a rebound
Intra-regional
(12%)
in intra-regional trade (Graph A2).
(26%)
60
60
This is consistent with the recovery
in domestic final demand in the
20
20
2007
2009
2007
2009
region, which has reflected the
* Excluding China and Japan. Figures in brackets show share of each
destination in 2008.
generally sounder conditions in these
Sources: CEIC; RBA
economies (including their financial
systems) and the substantial policy
stimulus that has been put in place, most notably in China (see ‘Box B: Some Aspects of China’s
Recent Growth’ in the August Statement). The recovery in the Chinese economy over the past
six months has been sufficiently strong to bring import volumes back above their earlier peak
(Graph A3). While this increase in Chinese imports has benefited all of China’s major trading
partners, it has been imports from Australia, Japan and elsewhere in east Asia that have experienced
China
(17%)
14
R e s e r v e
b a n k
o f
EU
(13%)
A u s t r a l i a
the most rapid rebounds. Trade
elsewhere in east Asia also appears
to have been boosted by a shift
in inventory dynamics, both in
the region and elsewhere around
the world, just as the unintended
build-up in inventories during 2008
exacerbated the earlier fall in trade.
Graph A3
China – Merchandise Imports
March quarter 2008 = 100
Index
Values by origin*
Index
Australia
(3%)
120
120
EU
(12%)
Volume
100
100
US
The pick-up in trade across Asia
(7%)
is evident in a wide range of goods.
80
80
In the case of China, the rise in
Other
Value
east Asia
exports in the September quarter
Japan
(30%)
(13%)
was broad-based, although exports
60
60
2008
2009
2008
2009
of electrical equipment (including
* Figures in brackets show each region’s share of China’s total imports
in 2008
consumer electronics) have been
Sources: CEIC; RBA; Thomson Reuters
particularly strong recently. In the
case of the higher-income economies
Graph A4
in the region, electronic components
South Korea – Merchandise Export Volumes
and consumer durables also appear to
January 2008 = 100
Index
Index
have played a particularly prominent
role in driving the rebound. In Korea,
Semi-conductors*
for example, exports of motor
140
140
vehicles and semi-conductors have
Total*
recovered very strongly following
100
100
sharp falls over the second half of
2008 (Graph A4). Korean exports
of motor vehicles have benefited
60
60
Motor vehicles
from car scrappage schemes in the
United States and several European
20
20
countries, although the increase in
M
J
S
D
M
J
S
D
2008
2009
auto exports has been broad-based
* RBA estimates for September 2009
Sources: CEIC; RBA
across destinations. Semi-conductor
exports are estimated to have doubled since January, with a large part of this increase reflecting
demand from China. While some of this is accounted for by robust final demand from China itself,
the strength also reflects apparent rebuilding of stocks and China’s role in the assembly of consumer
electronic goods for re-export.
Elsewhere in the region, the recovery in export volumes in the ASEAN economies has been
relatively modest to date, but the value of exports from these countries has posted a more solid
increase. A relatively high share of exports from these economies consists of energy commodities,
particularly in the case of Indonesia and Malaysia, the prices of which have generally risen strongly
over the past six months following sharp falls in late 2008. R
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