Stat 104 – Lecture 21 Parameter – numerical summary of the entire population. Population – all items of interest. Inference Sample – a few items from the population. Statistic – numerical summary of the sample. 1 Poll on the Environment • USA Today/Gallup Poll conducted June 11 – 13, 2010 • “Would you favor or oppose Congress passing new legislation this year that would regulate energy output from private companies in an attempt to reduce global warming?” 2 Poll on the Environment • Population – all adults in the United States. • Population Parameter – proportion of all adults in the U.S. who would favor legislation. 3 1 Stat 104 – Lecture 21 Poll on the Environment • Sample – 1,014 adults in the United States. • Sample Statistic – proportion of the 1,014 who favor new legislation. 4 Parameter – population proportion 0.53 ≤ p ≤ 0.59 Population – all adults in the U.S. Inference Statistic – sample proportion Sample – 1,014 pˆ = 0.56 adults polled. 5 Poll on the Environment • Description – 56% of the sample are in favor of Congress passing new legislation to regulate energy output. • Inference – between 53% and 59% of the entire population of U.S. adults would be in favor of Congress passing new legislation to regulate energy output. 6 2 Stat 104 – Lecture 21 Margin of Error • The approximate margin of error is given by 1 × 100% n 7 68-95-99.7 Rule • 95% of the time a sample proportion, p̂ , will be within 2 standard deviations of the population proportion, p . 8 68-95-99.7 Rule • 95% of the time the sample proportion, p̂ , will be between p−2 p(1 − p) p(1 − p) and p + 2 n n 9 3 Stat 104 – Lecture 21 Standard Deviation • Because p, the population proportion is not known, the standard deviation SD( pˆ ) = p(1 − p) n is also unknown. 10 Standard Error • Substitute p̂ as our estimate (best guess) of p. • The standard error of p̂ is: SE ( pˆ ) = pˆ (1 − pˆ ) n 11 • About 95% of the time the sample proportion, p̂ , will be within 2SE( pˆ ) = 2 pˆ (1 − pˆ ) n two standard errors of p. 12 4 Stat 104 – Lecture 21 • About 95% of the time the population proportion, p, will be within pˆ (1 − pˆ ) n two standard errors of p̂ . 2SE ( pˆ ) = 2 13 Confidence Interval for p • We are 95% confident that p will fall between pˆ − 2 pˆ (1− pˆ ) pˆ (1− pˆ ) and pˆ + 2 n n 14 Example pˆ = 0.56 0.56(0.44) pˆ (1 − pˆ ) = = 0.0156 1014 n 0.56 − 2(0.0156) to 0.56 + 2(0.0156) 0.529 to 0.591 15 5 Stat 104 – Lecture 21 Interpretation • We are 95% confident that the population proportion of all adults in the U.S. who would favor new legislation is between 52.9% and 59.1%. 16 Interpretation • Plausible values for the population parameter p. • 95% confidence in the process that produced this interval. 17 95% Confidence • If one were to repeatedly sample at random 1014 adults in the U.S. and compute a 95% confidence interval for each sample, 95% of the intervals produced would contain the population proportion p. 18 6 Stat 104 – Lecture 21 Simulation http://statweb.calpoly.edu/chance/ applets/Confsim/Confsim.html 19 20 Margin of Error • The approximate margin of error is 2 standard errors with 95% confidence and pˆ = 0.5 2 0.5(1 − 0.5) 1 = × 100% n n 21 7