AN ECONOMIC REPORT
TO THE GOVERNOR
OF THE STATE OF TENNESSEE
THE STATE’S
ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK
JANUARY
2016
AN ECONOMIC REPORT
TO THE GOVERNOR
OF THE STATE OF TENNESSEE
Matthew N. Murray, Associate Director and Project Director
Center for Business and Economic Research
PREPARED BY THE
Center for Business and Economic Research
Haslam College of Business
The University of Tennessee
Knoxville, Tennessee
IN COOPERATION WITH THE
Appalachian Regional Commission
Tennessee Department of Finance and Administration
Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development
Tennessee Department of Revenue
and
Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development
THE STATE’S
ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK
JANUARY
2016
CONTRIBUTORS
An Economic Report to the Governor of the State of Tennessee
AUTHORS
UT Center for Business and Economic Research
Matthew N. Murray, Associate Director and Project Director
William F. Fox, Director
Celeste K. Carruthers, Assistant Professor of Economics
Lawrence M. Kessler, Research Assistant Professor
Vickie C. Cunningham, Research Associate
Mary Elizabeth Glenn, Graduate Research Assistant
The Agri-Industry Modeling and Analysis Group
Kimberly Jensen, Professor of Agricultural Economics
Jamey Menard, Research Leader
Burton English, Professor of Agricultural Economics
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, The University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture
Andrew Griffith, Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics
Aaron Smith, Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics
Edward Yu, Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics
PROJECT SUPPORT STAFF
UT Center for Business and Economic Research
Betty A. Drinnen, Administrative Specialist
Carrie B. McCamey, Communications Coordinator
The preparation of this report was financed in part by the following agencies: the Tennessee Department of Finance and Administration, the Tennessee
Department of Economic and Community Development, the Tennessee Department of Revenue, the Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce
Development, and the Appalachian Regional Commission.
This material is the result of tax-supported research and as such is not copyrightable. It may be freely reprinted with the customary crediting of the source.
UT Publication Authorization Number R01-1493-295-002-16.
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PREFACE
This 2016 volume of An Economic Report to the Governor of the State of Tennessee is the fortieth in a
series of annual reports compiled in response to requests by state government officials for assistance in
achieving greater interdepartmental consistency in planning and budgeting efforts sensitive to the overall
economic environment. Both short-term, or business cycle-sensitive forecasts, and longer-term, or trend
forecasts, are provided in this report.
The quarterly state forecast through the first quarter of 2018 and annual forecast through 2025
represent the collective judgment of the staff of the University of Tennessee’s Center for Business and
Economic Research in conjunction with the Quarterly and Annual Tennessee Econometric Models.
The national forecasts were prepared by IHS Global Insight, Inc. Tennessee forecasts, current as of
January 2016, are based on an array of assumptions, particularly at the national level, which are described
in Chapter One. Chapter Two details evaluations for major sectors of the Tennessee economy, with
an agriculture section provided by The Agri-Industry Modeling and Analysis Group at the University
of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture. Chapter Three discusses Tennessee’s role in the international
economy and presents the long-run outlook and forecast for the state. Chapter Four presents the
background, early results, and challenges of Tennessee’s Drive to 55 program.
The primary purpose of this annual volume—published, distributed, and financed through the
Tennessee Department of Finance and Administration, Tennessee Department of Economic and
Community Development, the Tennessee Department of Revenue, the Tennessee Department of Labor
and Workforce Development, and the Appalachian Regional Commission—is to provide wide public
dissemination of the most-current possible economic analysis to planners and decision-makers in the
public and private sectors.
Matthew N. Murray
Associate Director and Project Director
Center for Business and Economic Research
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CONTENTS
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY....................................................................................................................................... viii
CHAPTER 1: THE U.S. ECONOMY........................................................................................................................ 1
1.1Introduction........................................................................................................................................................1
1.2. The U.S. Economy: Year in Review....................................................................................................................2
Components of GDP.......................................................................................................................................2
1.3. The U.S. Forecast............................................................................................................................................10
1.4. Alternative Scenarios......................................................................................................................................17
1.5. Forecast Summary and Conclusions..............................................................................................................17
1.6.References......................................................................................................................................................18
CHAPTER 2: THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY: SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK.......................................................... 19
2.1. Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................19
2.2. The Current Economic Environment...............................................................................................................20
The Labor Market..........................................................................................................................................20
Income and Taxable Sales.............................................................................................................................23
2.3. Fiscal Update..................................................................................................................................................26
Federal Government......................................................................................................................................26
State Finances Across the Nation.................................................................................................................26
The Southeastern States and Tennessee.....................................................................................................27
2.4. Short-Term Outlook.........................................................................................................................................28
2.4. Tennessee Forecast at a Glance.....................................................................................................................33
2.5. Tennessee’s Agricultural and Forest Industries and Rural Economy..............................................................33
Introduction....................................................................................................................................................33
a. Agriculture and Primary Forestry..............................................................................................................33
b. Food, Fiber, and Forestry Manufacturing in Tennessee............................................................................38
c. Rural Economies and Well-Being.............................................................................................................40
d. Governor’s Rural Challenge......................................................................................................................41
Summary ......................................................................................................................................................42
References Used...........................................................................................................................................42
CHAPTER 3: THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY: LONG-TERM OUTLOOK............................................................ 45
3.1.Introduction......................................................................................................................................................45
3.2. Employment Outlook.......................................................................................................................................46
3.3.Unemployment................................................................................................................................................49
3.4.Population.......................................................................................................................................................52
3.5. Personal Income and Taxable Sales ..............................................................................................................53
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CONTENTS
3.6. State Gross Domestic Product........................................................................................................................54
CHAPTER 4: TENNESSEE’S DRIVE TO 55: BACKGROUND, EARLY RESULTS, AND CHALLENGES
LYING AHEAD............................................................................................................................... 57
4.1. Introduction and Key Points.............................................................................................................................57
4.2. The Landscape of College Progression in Tennessee....................................................................................58
4.3. Will “Free Community College” Make a Difference in Tennessee? Early Indicators........................................64
4.4. Challenges and Opportunities.........................................................................................................................65
Changing the Culture of College Aspirations.................................................................................................65
Undermatching..............................................................................................................................................66
Readiness and Research..............................................................................................................................67
The Other 45 Percent....................................................................................................................................68
4.5.Acknowledgements.........................................................................................................................................68
4.6.References......................................................................................................................................................69
APPENDIX A: FORECAST DATA.......................................................................................................................... 1
Quarterly History Tables...........................................................................................................................................2
Annual History Tables.............................................................................................................................................26
APPENDIX B: HISTORICAL DATA...................................................................................................................... 43
Quarterly Forecast Tables.......................................................................................................................................44
Annual Forecast Tables..........................................................................................................................................67
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CONTENTS
FIGURES AND TABLES
CHAPTER 1: THE U.S. ECONOMY........................................................................................................................ 1
Figure 1.1: Inflation-Adjusted GDP Continued to Grow in 2015..............................................................................3
Figure 1.2: The Housing Sector Continues to Rebound, but Starts and Sales Remain Below
Pre-Recession Levels............................................................................................................................5
Figure 1.3: Consumer Energy Prices Drop in 2015................................................................................................8
Figure 1.4: Unemployment Continues Dropping, but the Participation Rate Also Remains Low.............................9
Figure 1.5: The Federal Funds Rate Is Expected to Rise, Which Will Push Mortgage Rates Up..........................12
Figure 1.6: The Trade Deficit Is Expected to Continue as Import Growth Outpaces Export Growth.....................15
Figure 1.7: The Price of Crude Oil Will Begin Rebounding Mid-2016....................................................................15
CHAPTER 2: THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY: SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK.......................................................... 19
Figure 2.1: Over Eighty Percent of Tennessee Counties Experienced Job Growth
in the Second Quarter Of 2015...........................................................................................................21
Figure 2.2: The Labor Force Participation Rate Remains Low in Tennessee and in the Nation............................22
Figure 2.3: Tennessee’s Monthly Unemployment Rate Is Near the Middle of the Pack Among
Southeast States (December 2015)....................................................................................................22
Figure 2.4: Eighty-Seven Percent of Tennessee Counties are Reporting Unemployment Rates Above the
National Average.................................................................................................................................23
Figure 2.5: Tennessee’s Per Capita Personal Income (in Current Dollars) is Slightly Below the Southeast
Average, 2015Q3................................................................................................................................24
Figure 2.6: Per Capita Personal Income Is Lower Than the National Average in Most Tennessee Counties........24
Figure 2.7: Building Permits Are Still Well Below the Pre-Recession Peaks of 2005 ...........................................25
Figure 2.8: The Federal Deficit Will Increase Slightly in 2016................................................................................26
Figure 2.9: Tennessee Has Fourth Highest Growth Rate in Total Tax Revenues Among Southeastern
States, Fiscal Year 2015 (July 2014–June 2015).................................................................................27
Table 2.1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted............................................29
Figure 2.10: Despite Recent Growth, U.S. and Tennessee Manufacturing Employment Are Well Below
Pre-Recession Levels From 2008.....................................................................................................30
Figure 2.11: U.S. and Tennessee Manufacturing Output See Positive Growth .....................................................30
Figure 2.12: Tennessee’s Unemployment Rate Is Projected to Stay Above the National Rate Through 2018......31
Figure 2.13: Per Capita Personal Income in Tennessee Has Fallen Relative to the National Average..................32
Table 2.2: Tennessee Cash Farm Receipts and Share of Commodity Exports, 2010-2014..................................34
Table 2.3: Indicators of the Tennessee Farm Sector’s Financial Well-Being, 2010-2014.......................................37
Table 2.4: Tennessee Food, Fiber, and Forestry Manufacturing, 2013..................................................................39
Figure 2.14: Agri-forestry Products Manufacturing Value of Shipments, 2009–2013............................................39
Table 2.5: Household Income, Education Level, and Unemployment and Poverty Rates in Rural and
Urban Areas of Tennessee....................................................................................................................40
Table 2.6: Scorecard Indicators of Positive Progress for Tennessee Agriculture...................................................41
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CONTENTS
CHAPTER 3: THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY: LONG-TERM OUTLOOK............................................................ 45
Table 3.1: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Broad Sector (Thousands of Jobs).............................................47
Table 3.2: Tennessee Manufacturing Employment by Sector (Thousands of Jobs)...............................................47
Figure 3.1: Nonfarm Employment Continues to Grow While Manufacturing Employment Reverts to Trend
Contraction Over the Long-Term Forecast Horizon.............................................................................48
Figure 3.2: Total Covered Employment Growth.....................................................................................................48
Figure 3.3: In the Long-Run, Tennessee’s Unemployment Rate Will Trend Downwards but Remain Above
the National Rate for Most of the Forecast Horizon.............................................................................49
Figure 3.4: Educational Attainment Levels in Tennessee Are Below the National Average ..................................50
Figure 3.5: Unemployment Rates in 2015 Are Comparable to their 2005 Counterparts in Most Tennessee
Counties..............................................................................................................................................51
Figure 3.6: Tennessee Population Growth.............................................................................................................53
Table 3.3: Tennessee Inflation-Adjusted Gross Domestic Product by Sector........................................................55
CHAPTER 4: TENNESSEE’S DRIVE TO 55: BACKGROUND, EARLY RESULTS, AND CHALLENGES
LYING AHEAD............................................................................................................................... 57
Table 4.1: Timely Student Progression Among 2007 and 2008 9th Graders.........................................................60
Table 4.2: High School Progression, Graduation, and College Enrollment Means by Cohort...............................61
Table 4.3: High School Graduates Who Do Not Go on to College: Workforce Participation, Earnings, and
Industry by Cohort.................................................................................................................................61
Figure 4.1: College or Workforce Destinations the Year After High School Graduation, by Region.......................62
Figure 4.2: Seamless College Enrollment Rates by County of First High School.................................................63
Table 4.4: High School Dropouts: Workforce Participation, Earnings, and Industry Five Years After 9th Grade,
by Cohort...............................................................................................................................................63
APPENDIX A: FORECAST DATA.......................................................................................................................... 1
Quarterly History Tables...........................................................................................................................................2
Annual History Tables.............................................................................................................................................26
APPENDIX B: HISTORICAL DATA...................................................................................................................... 43
Quarterly Forecast Tables.......................................................................................................................................44
Annual Forecast Tables..........................................................................................................................................67
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The U.S. Economy
Early estimates indicate that U.S. gross domestic
product (GDP) grew 2.4 percent in 2015 compared
to 2.4 percent in 2014 and 1.5 percent in 2013.
The last year started off slowly, with GDP growing
by a meager 0.6 percent (on a seasonally-adjusted
basis) in the first quarter of 2015 but rebounding
in the subsequent quarters. This makes 2015 the
sixth year of recovery since the recession. The
continued U.S. recovery is an outlier in a global
economy where many countries are experiencing
economic slowdown or outright recession. The
U.S. economy is predicted to sustain its stable
growth through 2016 and 2017 and continue to be
a global leader in growth.
The most important milestone of 2014 was
that it marked the first year that nonfarm payroll
jobs finally reached their pre-recession level. In
2015, significantly more jobs were created and
the unemployment rate dropped further. Total
nonfarm payrolls increased by 2.9 million for
a total of 141.9 million jobs. Unemployment
continued to fall reaching 5.0 percent by the fourth
quarter, the lowest since the first quarter of 2008.
These positive labor market indicators, along
with falling food and gas prices, led to increases
in consumers’ inflation-adjusted disposable
income. The same labor market factors led to
consumption growing by a strong 3.1 percent, the
highest growth rate since 2006. Nonresidential and
residential investment also showed substantial gains
and increased by 3.4 and 8.6 percent, respectively.
This is a good sign for the housing sector, which
experienced double-digit growth in 2012 and 2013
but only grew by 1.8 percent in 2014. Inflation
was flat in 2015, and overall prices rose by only 0.2
percent.
In less positive news, the government deficit was
$438.9 billion, small when compared to the deficits
run during the Great Recession, but 2015 marks
the fourth year in a row that total U.S. federal
debt was larger than U.S. GDP. The trade deficit
widened in 2015, as exports grew minimally due
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to the global slowdown and an appreciating U.S.
dollar, and imports grew faster due to increased
domestic consumption. And despite the strength
in many elements of the labor market, the low
labor force participation rate and weak earnings
growth remain causes of concern.
Despite the global slowdown, the Fed was
confident enough in the recovery to raise interest
rates in December 2015. The Federal Funds rate
rose from zero percent to 0.25 percent. Several
subsequent 0.25 percentage point increases are
expected in 2016. Other interest rates are also
expected to rise. Despite these rising interest
rates, rates remain low by historical standards and
both residential and nonresidential investment are
predicted to continue to grow. Recovering energy
prices are expected to contribute to a slight rise in
inflation in 2016. The Consumer Price Index (CPI)
is expected to reach 1.2 percent.
There are always reasons to be cautious about
the next year, but so far the recovery has not
been derailed and the U.S. economy has shown
considerable resilience. The economy continued to
grow last year and is expected to do so in 2016 and
2017 as well. GDP is expected to increase by 2.7
percent, and the unemployment rate is predicted
to fall to 4.9 percent. The year is expected to have
solid gains each quarter, with GDP increases of 3.0
percent, 3.0 percent, 3.3 percent, and 3.3 percent
in the first, second, third, and fourth quarters
respectively. Strong domestic demand will continue
to be the major driver of these GDP increases.
Expectations are that 2017 and 2018 will both
register solid economic growth, 2.9 and 2.6 percent
in 2017 and 2018, respectively.
There are reasons to be concerned that the
global slowdown could impact the U.S. economy,
but overall U.S. economic indicators were positive
throughout 2015. There are ample reasons to
expect this recovery to continue and for there to be
sustained and substantial growth in 2016 as well.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Tennessee Economy
The Short-Term Economic Outlook
The Tennessee economy continued to expand
in 2015. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic
product (GDP) grew by 2.4 percent for the year,
matching GDP growth for the U.S., and nonfarm
employment increased by 1.9 percent, representing
an addition of 54,600 new jobs. Job growth
in Tennessee was slightly slower than national
job gains of 2.1 percent for 2015. The state
unemployment rate fell from 6.6 percent in 2014
to 5.9 percent in 2015, but still rests above the
national rate.
Nominal personal income in Tennessee grew
by 4.7 percent in 2015, outpacing the national
growth rate of 4.5 percent. Nominal taxable
sales continued to grow rapidly, increasing by 6.2
percent in 2015. This followed a 4.9 percent gain
in 2014.
Tennessee is projected to see slightly slower
growth in 2016 and 2017. Inflation-adjusted GDP
will rise by 2.3 percent in 2016 and 2.2 percent in
2017. Nonfarm employment should see 1.7 percent
growth in 2016 and 1.3 percent growth in 2017.
Leisure and hospitality, professional and business
services, and natural resources, mining, and
construction will experience the largest job gains in
both 2016 and 2017. Manufacturing employment
will continue to increase but at a slow rate of
0.7 percent in 2016 and 2017. Manufacturing
employment growth will occur in the durable
goods sector, expanding by 1.5 percent in 2016
and 2017. These gains will offset the losses in the
nondurable goods manufacturing sector, where
employment is projected to shrink by 0.7 percent
in 2016 and 0.8 percent in 2017.
The state unemployment rate will fall to 5.5
percent in 2016 and 5.4 percent in 2017. This
would be the first time since 2007 that Tennessee’s
unemployment rate fell below 6 percent. The
number of unemployed people in Tennessee
is projected to fall by 6.2 percent in 2016 and
an additional 1.7 percent in 2017. However,
Tennessee’s unemployment rate will remain above
its national counterpart throughout the short-term
forecast window.
Nominal personal income will grow by 4.8
percent in 2016 and 4.7 percent in 2017. All
components of personal income in Tennessee will
enjoy healthy growth over the next two years. In
2016 wage and salary income will increase by the
largest amount, expanding by 5.1 percent, followed
by 4.3 percent growth in 2017. Proprietors’ income
will increase by 5.0 percent in 2016 and 4.8 percent
in 2017, while rent, interest, and dividend income
will grow by 4.4 percent in 2016 and 5.2 percent
in 2017. Transfer payments are also projected to
increase by 3.7 percent in 2016 and 4.1 percent
in 2017. On a fiscal year basis, nominal personal
income is projected to rise by 4.9 percent in FY
2016 and 3.3 percent in FY 2017. Per capita
personal income will increase by 3.7 percent this
year and 3.6 percent in 2017. By 2017, per capita
income in Tennessee will equal $44,695. However,
this will equate to only 86.9 percent of the national
average. Nominal taxable sales are projected to rise
by 4.7 percent this year and 3.5 percent in 2017.
On a fiscal year basis, nominal taxable sales will
increase by 6.5 percent in FY 2016 and 3.3 percent
in FY 2017.
Long-Term Economic Outlook
Tennessee’s long-term outlook is based on
a trend forecast which focuses on factors of
production such as population and labor force
growth as well as productivity. The forecast
presented in the body of this report extends out
to 2025 and also takes a retrospective look at
economic growth between 2005 and the present.
One of the underlying assumptions of the trend
forecast is that no recessions will occur within the
next ten years, but a recession at some point during
the long-term forecast horizon is possible if not
likely.
From 2005 to 2015, nonfarm employment
in Tennessee expanded by only 0.5 percent
(compound annual growth rate, CAGR). This
was slightly slower than the 0.6 percent (CAGR)
growth registered for the nation as a whole.
Employment growth during this period was
slowed due to the Great Recession, and stronger
employment gains are expected over the next
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
ten years. In Tennessee, nonfarm employment
is projected to increase by 1.1 percent (CAGR)
between 2015 and 2025. By comparison, national
employment will expand by a slightly slower 1.0
percent compound annual growth rate. Tennessee’s
manufacturing sector and other services sector
will see a very slight contraction in employment
over the next ten years, while all other sectors are
projected to grow. Employment growth will be
strongest in the professional and business services
sector, followed by education and health services
and natural resources, mining, and construction.
Within the manufacturing sector, durable goods
employment is projected to grow by 0.4 percent
(CAGR) between 2015 and 2025 while nondurable
goods employment will fall by 1.0 percent (CAGR).
Tennessee’s unemployment rate has rested
above the national rate for the last ten years, and a
similar pattern is projected throughout most of the
long-term forecast horizon out to 2025. However,
both the state and national unemployment rates
will trend downwards over the next ten years.
Tennessee’s unemployment rate, which was 5.9
percent in 2015, will fall to 5.1 percent by 2025,
while the national unemployment rate is projected
to fall from 5.3 percent in 2015 to 5.0 percent in
2025. Despite the state’s declining unemployment
rate, Tennessee labor force participation rate
continues to fall. In 2005, Tennessee’s labor
force participation rate was 62.0 percent and
only slightly below the national participation
rate of 64.5 percent. In 2015, the state’s labor
force participation rate fell to 57.7 percent and is
projected to fall even further to 55.1 percent by
2025. The national labor force participation rate
has fallen as well and will rest slightly above 60
percent in 2025.
Between 2015 and 2025, nominal personal
income is projected to grow by 4.5 percent
(CAGR) in Tennessee, outpacing the 3.8 percent
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compound annual growth rate that was registered
between 2005 and 2015. Per capita income in
Tennessee was only 86.8 percent of the national
average in 2015. From 2015 to 2025, per capita
income growth in the state is expected to grow
by 3.5 percent, but lag behind national per capita
income growth of 4.0 percent. As a result, state
per capita income will drop to 82.5 percent of the
national average by 2025. State initiatives such as
the Tennessee Promise, which offers two years
of tuition-free community college or technical
college to all Tennessee high school graduates,
and the Drive to 55, with its goal of increasing the
percentage of Tennesseans with a college degree
or certificate to 55 percent of the Tennessee
population by 2025, aim to increase the education
status of the state. If the hoped-for gains are
realized, this will support a stronger growth
trajectory for the state economy. This could
support stronger income growth and a narrowing
of the gap between the incomes of Tennesseans
and other Americans.
Nominal taxable sales in Tennessee are expected
to grow by 3.8 percent (CAGR) between 2015 and
2025. This is much stronger than the 2.5 percent
compound annual growth rate that took place
over the last ten years. Between 2005 and 2015,
inflation-adjusted state GDP grew by a sluggish 1.1
percent (CAGR) in Tennessee, which was slightly
slower than the 1.4 percent compound annual
growth rate that inflation-adjusted GDP registered
for the nation. Of course, this time period
encapsulates the Great Recession which suppressed
output growth in the late 2000’s. Looking ahead
ten years, inflation-adjusted state GDP growth
will accelerate to 2.2 percent (CAGR) between
2015 and 2025. This is slightly slower than the 2.4
percent compound annual growth rate projected
for national GDP.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Tennessee’s Drive to 55: Background, Early Results, and Challenges Lying
Ahead
Tennessee’s “Drive to 55” is an effort initiated
in 2013 to have 55 percent of working-age
Tennesseans hold a higher education credential
by 2025. Tennessee Promise is one of the major
prongs of this effort. Promise provides last dollar
grants – covering tuition and required fees – for
any high school graduate in the state who goes
straight to a two-year higher education program.
The program and its privately funded predecessors
motivated similar proposals from several states, the
White House, and presidential candidates.
This chapter begins by situating Tennessee
Promise in the recent history of student
progression from high school to college. Among
students who started 9th grade in 2008 or 2009,
54 – 55 percent of high school graduates went
straight to college. For those who did not, typical
earnings were well under the federal poverty line
for a one-person household. Dropouts fared even
worse.
The second section reviews what we know
about the impact of Tennessee Promise so far, as
well as findings from a study by two CBER faculty
on the impact of Knox Achieves – an earlier, very
similar program limited to Knox County – on
college enrollment. In the first year of Tennessee
Promise, first-year college student enrollment
rose 10 percent across two-year and four-year
public systems. This echoes our estimated impact
of Knox Achieves, whose participants were
substantially more likely to enroll in college than
similar students in ineligible counties.
Last, we review some of the challenges and
opportunities facing Tennessee Promise and the
Drive to 55. Tennessee Promise has proven to
be effective at changing the conversation about
going to college, but this conversation need not
start in twelfth grade. Free tuition will convince
some would-be university freshmen to start at a
community college (“undermatching”), and their
ultimate success will test the state’s system of
transfer pathways. Overmatching is potentially a
bigger challenge: most two-year college students
require remedial education and fewer than three
in ten obtain a degree within six years. More
high-quality research is needed to identify what
programs or practices are pivotal in helping
students through college. Research is also needed
to identify factors of success for “the other 45
percent” without a college credential.
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The U.S. Economy
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CHAPTER 1
CHAPTER 1: THE U.S. ECONOMY
In this chapter—
1.1.Introduction
1.2.
The U.S. Economy: Year in Review
Components of GDP
1.3.
The U.S. Forecast
1.4.
Alternative Scenarios
1.5.
Forecast Summary and Conclusions
1.6.References
1.1Introduction
In 2015, the U.S. recovery from the Great
Recession continued for its sixth year while many
parts of the world continued reeling from the
Great Recession or experienced setbacks related
to China and its slowdown. U.S. gross domestic
product (GDP) grew by a healthy 2.4 percent in
2015. For comparison, Canada, Japan, and China
grew by 1.0 percent, 0.5 percent, and 6.8 percent,
respectively. The U.S. was in many dimensions a
global economic leader in 2015.
The labor market continued a slow but steady
recovery: 2014 was the first year that nonfarm
payroll reached its pre-recession level, and in
2015 an additional 2.9 million jobs were created.
Only one major sector is predicted to have lost
jobs in 2015: natural resources and mining, which
lost 66 thousand jobs due to falling energy and
commodity prices and a subsequent reduction in
drilling activity. In addition, the unemployment rate
continued its drop to 5.3 percent for the year and
5.0 percent for the fourth quarter, and inflation-
adjusted disposable income rose by 3.6 percent for
the year. Moreover, the housing market recovered
from the slow growth of 2014 and spending on
residential investment grew by 8.6 percent in
2015. There were some weak spots in the nation’s
housing sector, but generally the momentum was
in a positive direction. Additionally, the economy
experienced almost no inflation due to falling
food and energy prices. All of this positive news
culminated in the Federal Reserve signaling its
confidence in the economy by raising the discount
rate from 0.75 percent to 1.0 percent and the
Federal Funds rate from the zero bound to 0.25
percent. These were the first increases in many
years, driving home the Fed’s faith in the resiliency
of the economy and their belief that the U.S.
economy is stable enough to withstand rising
interest rates and any modest, unforeseen shocks.
The biggest drags and sources of caution were
a combination of plummeting commodity and
energy prices, an appreciating U.S. dollar, and the
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CHAPTER 1
1.1.
|
The U.S. Economy
Introduction, continued
global slowdown (especially in China). Falling
energy and commodity prices led to a contraction
in the natural resources and mining sector and
sharp curtailment of drilling activity. (Falling
energy prices had a silver lining in the form of
significantly lower gasoline prices which freed up
purchasing power for other uses.) An appreciating
dollar and the global slowdown contributed to a
widening U.S. trade deficit. While none of these
factors were enough to derail U.S. economic
growth, their impact is expected to continue into
the next year.
1.2.
The U.S. Economy: Year in Review
The last year was another stable year for the
U.S. expansion. The year started off slow but
gained momentum: GDP grew by 0.6 percent
on a seasonally-adjusted basis in the first quarter.
Afterwards, however, GDP grew by 3.9 percent
and 2.0 percent in the second and third quarters;
fourth quarter GDP grew at a disappointing 1.2
percent rate. This relatively strong growth for
the year as a whole can be attributed to a slowly
strengthening housing market, a solid labor market
and employment outlook, and robust consumption
spending (particularly of durable goods, including
automobiles). The Federal Reserve’s December
interest rate hike provided evidence of its
confidence in the economy.
A continuation of the stable growth seen in
2015 is expected for 2016. Both the labor and
housing markets are expected to show sustained
improvement and inflation is expected to remain
benign. This favorable forecast comes with some
caution. The global economy is not faring as
well as the U.S. economy: much of the globe is
experiencing a slowdown in growth, particularly in
China, its trading partners, and other developing
nations. This situation is expected to continue in
2016. The global slowdown and an appreciating
U.S. dollar, in conjunction with strong domestic
consumption, are likely to lead to a widening trade
deficit. However, these threats are not viewed as
significant enough to unsettle the U.S. economy’s
current trajectory.
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A continuation of growth is expected in 2016.
U.S. inflation-adjusted GDP is expected to grow by
2.7 percent, the economy is expected to create 2.4
million jobs, inflation-adjusted disposable income
is expected to rise by 3.1 percent, and the global
slowdown is expected to continue. Energy and
commodity prices are expected to reach bottom in
2016 and affected economies are expected to begin
stabilizing. The primary risk is a sharper slowdown
in China and the global economy.
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Components of GDP
GDP is composed of personal consumption
expenditures, investment, government purchases,
and the balance of international trade (exports
minus imports).
Consumption
Personal consumption expenditures are by far
the largest component of U.S. GDP, accounting for
68.6 percent of spending in 2015. Consumption
grew by 3.1 percent in 2015 compared to 2.7
percent in 2014 and 1.7 percent in 2013. This
healthy consumer spending was a major driver
of the economy. Increases in consumer spending
accounted for 2.1 percentage points of the 2.4
percent growth in GDP in 2015. The strongest
consumption growth was recorded in the second
quarter, up 3.6 percent compared to 1.8 percent
growth in the preceding quarter. The factors
that typically help explain consumer spending
include disposable income growth, consumer
confidence, and the state of the labor market.
Inflation-adjusted disposable income increased
by 3.6 percent in 2015 compared to growing 2.7
percent in 2014 and falling 1.4 percent in 2013.
Some of this disposable income growth was
due to falling energy prices, particularly gasoline
prices, freeing up income to be spent elsewhere.
The unemployment rate and consumer sentiment
index also moved in favorable directions. The
unemployment rate fell to 5.3 percent for the year,
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The U.S. Economy: Year in Review, continued
the lowest the unemployment rate has been since
2007. The consumer sentiment index rose to 92.9,
up from 84.1 in 2014. On top of these favorable
indicators, inflation-adjusted household net worth
grew by 3.2 percent compared to 4.8 percent and
12.7 percent in 2014 and 2013, respectively.
Personal consumption has three components:
services, nondurable goods, and durable goods.
Spending on services is the least volatile of the
three components and accounted for 65.5 percent
of total consumption spending last year. Services
spending grew by 2.7 percent in 2015, the most
growth the category has experienced since 2006.
Healthcare, transportation, and food services all
saw substantial growth of 4.7 percent, 5.1 percent,
and 4.5 percent, respectively.
Nondurable goods are the second largest
category of consumption with a share of 21.7
percent. Nondurable goods include food,
beverages, clothing, medical products, gas, and
other similar short-lived products. Spending on
nondurable goods increased by 2.8 percent in 2015
compared to 2.1 percent in 2014 and 1.9 percent
in 2013. The categories that account for the largest
portions of nondurable goods spending are food
and beverages (33.2 percent of total nondurable
good consumption), clothing and footwear (14.8
percent), and pharmaceutical and medical products
(16.1 percent). Pharmaceutical and medical
products experienced strong growth with spending
ticking up 4.6 percent. Clothing and footwear also
grew 3.5 percent, but food and beverages spending
flattened and increased by only 0.2 percent. Worth
noting is that spending on tobacco products
increased by 3.5 percent, the first time the category
has grown since 2006.
Personal spending on durable goods includes
motor vehicles, furnishings, recreational goods,
computers, and other household equipment.
Spending on durable goods is by far the most
volatile category of consumption. Spending
growth on durables in the recovery has outpaced
Figure 1.1: Inflation-Adjusted GDP Continued to Grow in 2015
5.0
4.0
3.0
GDP Growth (%)
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and IHS Global Insight, Inc.
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spending on nondurables and services, and this
trend continued in 2015. Spending on durable
goods typically sinks during recessions and
increases more than any other category during
periods of recovery or expansion to satisfy
consumers’ pent-up demand. In 2015, durable
goods made up 13.1 percent of total consumption
spending, and spending on durable goods
increased by 6.1 percent. This continues a pattern
of strong growth in durable goods spending since
the recession: spending on durable goods increased
by 5.9 percent, 5.8 percent, and 7.4 percent in
2014, 2013, and 2012, respectively. Spending on
computers and peripheral equipment increased by
15.6 percent in 2015, up from 8.1 percent in 2014
and 12.7 percent in 2013.
Strong growth in vehicle purchases was one of
the main drivers of durable goods consumption.
Purchases of both used and new motor vehicles
increased significantly for the year. Net used
vehicle sales grew by 5.5 percent and new vehicles
sales grew by 3.8 percent. This year marks a peak
in both number of new vehicles sold and inflationadjusted spending on new vehicles: 17.4 million
vehicles were sold and $254.2 million was spent in
inflation-adjusted dollars. However, new vehicle
sales growth belies a sharp division between the
growth of new auto sales and light truck sales.
New auto sales shrank by 8.0 percent, while
new light truck sales rose 10.2 percent. Sales of
domestic cars remained steady at 5.6 million units
sold in both 2015 and 2014, while sales of foreign
cars fell 6.4 percent from 2.1 million units in 2014
to 2.0 million units in 2015. Sales of domestic light
trucks rose 9.3 percent in 2015 to 8.1 million units
sold, and sales of foreign light trucks rose 29.7
percent to 1.8 million units sold.
Investment
Investment made up 17.5 percent of U.S.
inflation-adjusted GDP and contributed 0.8
percentage points towards the total 2.4 percent
GDP growth in 2015. Investment includes three
subcomponents: nonresidential fixed investment,
residential fixed investment (new housing), and the
change in business inventories. All three categories
contributed positively to GDP in 2015. (Note that
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2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
investment, as included in GDP, does not include
financial instruments like stocks and bonds.)
Nonresidential fixed investment, the largest
component of investment spending, made up
77.8 percent of investment spending in 2015.
It includes equipment purchases by firms,
acquisition of non-tangible products such as
software and licenses, and spending on structures.
Nonresidential fixed investment spending grew
by 3.4 percent in 2015 compared to 6.2 percent in
2014 and 3.0 percent in 2013. Spending on mining
and petroleum structures fell by 34.7 percent, and
spending on power and communication fell by
12.1 percent. On the other hand, manufacturing
structures capacity increased dramatically with
a 49.9 percent gain. This was the fourth year
in a row to see an expansion in manufacturing
structures.
The second largest sub-component of
investment spending is residential fixed investment,
which accounted for 18.5 percent of investment
spending in 2015. Residential fixed investment
contributed 0.3 percentage points towards the
2.4 percent GDP growth in 2015. Residential
fixed investment grew by 8.6 percent in 2015, a
strong showing after growing only 1.8 percent
in 2014. This makes 2015 the fifth consecutive
year of growth in the housing market. Despite
this consistent growth, residential investment
remains substantially below its pre-recession peak.
In 2015, inflation-adjusted residential investment
increased to $528.4 billion in inflation-adjusted
dollars, still only 65.5 percent of the level recorded
in 2006. Housing is still trying to recover from
the wrenching 24.0 percent, 21.2 percent and 2.5
percent setbacks recorded in 2008, 2009 and 2010.
The number of housing starts grew by
10.9 percent to reach 1.1 million units in 2015
compared to 1.0 million units in 2014 and 928
thousand units in 2013. Nevertheless, 1.1 million
housing starts is still significantly below the 1.8
million housing starts recorded in 2006. Sales of
new homes increased by 12.7 percent in 2015 and
reached 496 thousand units, the highest number
since 2007. Sales of existing houses grew by 5.9
percent.
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The U.S. Economy: Year in Review, continued
House prices have kept their upward trend
since 2012. Average and median prices of existing
houses increased for the fourth consecutive year
to reach $264 thousand and $220 thousand,
respectively. The Federal Housing Finance Agency
(FHFA) Housing Price Purchase-Only Index also
increased for the fourth consecutive year. The
housing market continued recovering in the spring
and summer, despite stagnating home sales.
As is the case for investment in general, interest
rates are one of the key determinants of growth
in the housing sector. Interest rates remained low
throughout 2015, though many expected interest
rate hikes to begin mid-year. The Fed did not raise
interest rates until December 2015 because of the
global slowdown and a weak Chinese economy.
In December, the Federal Reserve announced
that it would increase the discount rate from 0.75
percent to 1.0 percent and the Federal Funds rate
from zero to 0.25 percent. The Federal Funds
increase is expected to be the first of many small
rate increases that will move the economy back to
more typical interest rate levels in the years ahead.
Because interest rates continued to be low in 2015,
the 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate remained lower
than its historical average, actually dropping from
4.2 percent in 2014 to 3.9 percent in 2015. The
average before the recession was above 6.0 percent.
The Federal Funds rate and 3-Month Treasury
Bill rate both remained close to zero throughout
2015. Meanwhile, the 10-Year Treasury note yield
fell from an average of 2.5 percent in 2014 to 2.1
percent in 2015.
Changes in business inventory, the highlycyclical component of investment, contributed
positively to GDP in the first two quarters of 2015
but came in negative in both the third and fourth
quarters. The overall effect for GDP was slightly
positive: changes in inventory accounted for 0.1
percentage points of the 2.4 percent growth in
GDP. Typically, the change in inventories accounts
for less than 3 percent of total investment (it
2.5
250.0
2.0
200.0
1.5
150.0
1.0
100.0
0.5
50.0
0.0
0.0
Sales of New Houses (Millions of Units)
FHFA HPI - Purchase Only (1991Q1=100)
New House Sales/Housing Starts
(Millions of Units)
Figure 1.2: The Housing Sector Continues to Rebound, but Starts and Sales Remain Below
Pre-Recession Levels
Housing Starts (Millions of Units)
FHFA HPI - Purchase Only (1991Q1=100)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, FHFA, and IHS Global Insight, Inc.
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accounted for 3.1 percent in 2015), yet it can have
a strong contribution to overall GDP growth in
some quarters due to its cyclical nature. Inventory
investment increased by 4.1 percent in 2015
compared to growing 3.1 percent in 2014. Both
farm and nonfarm inventory investment increased
steadily but not dramatically: farm investment grew
by 3.2 percent and nonfarm investment grew by
4.2 percent.
Government Purchases
Government purchases, including federal as
well as state and local spending, made up 17.5
percent of GDP in 2015. Federal purchases fell
for the fifth consecutive year, down to $1.1 trillion
in inflation-adjusted dollars. Federal purchases fell
0.4 percent compared to falling 2.4 and 5.7 percent
in 2014 and 2013, respectively. Defense spending
continued to fall but more slowly than in previous
years: defense spending fell by 1.4 percent in 2015
compared to falling by 3.8 percent in 2014 and
6.7 percent in 2013. Federal nondefense spending
grew by 1.2 percent compared to falling by 0.1
percent in 2014 and 4.0 percent in 2013. State
and local purchases grew for the second year in a
row and increased to $1.7 trillion in 2015, down
from $1.8 trillion in 2010 in inflation-adjusted
dollars. State and local spending grew by 1.5
percent compared to growing 0.6 percent in 2014
and shrinking 1.0 percent in 2013. This growth
in state and local spending was spurred on by
spending on investment: spending on construction
increased by 5.6 percent (the first year of growth
since 2006) and spending on software increased by
5.6 percent as well. State and local governments
are still recovering from the trough of the Great
Recession.
The federal government’s deficit remains high
at $483.9 billion (nominal dollars) but is small
compared to the deficits run during the recession.
Sequestration has helped rein in spending.
Stronger income taxes and social insurance
contributions counterbalanced lower corporate
taxes. The total federal debt rose to $18.5 trillion
nominal dollars, which makes 2015 the fourth year
that federal debt was larger than 100 percent of
GDP.
Worldwide Recovery from the Great Recession
Most recessions come and go without leaving a legacy in their aftermath. This was certainly not the case for the
Great Recession where recovery has been prolonged and has varied significantly across the globe. For example, Korea’s
unemployment rate in 2013 was 3.1 percent, 0.3 percentage points lower than its level in 2006. On the other hand, Spain’s
unemployment rate more than tripled during that time period to 26.3 percent in 2013 from 8.6 percent in 2006. GDP growth
has been equally divergent: in 2006, Spain’s GDP growth was 4.2 percent and South Korea’s was 5.2 percent. In 2013,
Spain’s GDP shrank by 1.7 percent from the previous year, while South Korea’s grew 2.9 percent. What factors account for
this uneven recovery? There are country-specific and region-specific factors at play, but there are also broad trends.
Overall, developing nations did much better than developed nations at recovering from the recession. This may be
because many developing nations are net exporters. China, with its insular markets, was not impacted by the Great
Recession as much as many other large economies. Therefore, nations that exported to China were not impacted as
severely by the Great Recession. In fact, Africa and Asia (excluding Japan and China and the Asian Tigers of Hong Kong,
Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan) had GDP growth of over 50 percent from 2009 to 2014. The Asian Tigers plus Japan
and China, the Middle East, Latin America, and Oceania all recorded GDP growth of over 40 percent from 2009 to 2014
2014 (Arias & Wen, 2015). Unfortunately, this is also why many developing nations have experienced severe setbacks to
growth as China’s growth slows. As a consequence, while developed nations’ contribution to global growth fell in the years
following the Great Recession (2010 – 2014), it is predicted to have risen in 2015.
continued on page 7
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continued from page 6
Another important factor is whether a country used effective fiscal or monetary stimulus to respond to the recession.
China used aggressive fiscal stimulus and used its state-owned enterprises to hoist up demand (Wen & Wu, 2014).
European nations responded to the crisis with monetary policy and to varying degrees pursued fiscal austerity. Now, once
we are at a vantage point to see the impact of those decisions, it appears that aggressive Keynesian government policy (i.e.
deficit financed government spending) helped China weather the Great Recession, whereas the mixed fiscal and monetary
policy actions of the U.S. were less effective, and the monetary actions of Europe were even less effective than that of the
U.S. (Arais & Wen, 2015).
Finally, the Great Recession began as a crisis in the financial sector. The more a nation’s financial market was integrated
with global financial markets, the more exposed they were to the immediate financial crisis. Countries with insular and
comparatively small financial markets may have been protected from the full ramifications of the financial crisis (Arais & Wen,
2015). The wilting financial markets had consequences for both the U.S. and European economies that may have made
recovery more difficult.
Europe, and especially a number of members of the European Union, had a particularly challenging time recovering
from the Great Recession. In 2013, European GDP was the same as it was in 2012. Europe was so hard-hit because the
recession launched a debt crisis, including a sovereign debt crisis for nation states. Five nations in the European Union
(EU) required bailouts after the recession: Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Cyprus. European nations trade heavily
with each other, and membership in the European Union intensifies this interrelatedness. As Europe was attempting to
recover from the recession, many of the EU member nations experienced crises that then impacted other nations. Further,
the EU suffered from each of the factors listed above: (1) it is made primarily of developed nations, so it could not weather
the Great Recession and its fallout through exports to China and other developing nations, (2) countries practiced monetary
stimulus and in some cases even austerity measures in response to the recession, and (3) its financial markets are globally
connected.
Trade
In 2015, the U.S. recorded a trade deficit of
$525.4 billion (or 2.9 percent of GDP). Exports
amounted to $2.3 trillion, while imports amounted
to $2.9 trillion. Typically, purchases of foreign
goods and services by U.S. consumers (imports)
exceed sales of goods and services produced in
the U.S. and sold to other countries (exports).
After the recession, there was a three-year period
from 2010 to 2012 when exports grew faster than
imports. However, in 2015, import growth vastly
outpaced export growth. Part of the explanation
for this imbalance is the strength of the U.S.
dollar. As the dollar strengthens, U.S. exports
become more expensive and imports to the U.S.
become less expensive. Imports increased in 2015
by 5.0 percent compared to rising by 3.8 and 1.1
percent in 2014 and 2013, respectively. Meanwhile,
exports increased by just 1.0 percent compared to
growing by 3.4 percent in 2014 and 2.8 percent in
2013. Imports of both goods and services grew
solidly: imports of services grew by 5.7 percent
and imports of goods grew by 4.9 percent. On the
other hand, exports of goods fell by 0.3 percent,
even as exports of services rose by 3.9 percent.
Exports of vehicles and parts fell by 4.8 percent,
the first time vehicle exports have fallen since
2009.
Inflation and Prices
The most popular measure of the aggregate
level of prices in the economy is the Consumer
Price Index or the CPI. As measured by the CPI,
overall prices rose by only 0.1 percent in 2015
compared to 1.6 percent in 2014 and 1.5 percent in
2013.
Low energy prices and low import prices (from
a strong U.S. dollar) drove overall price indices
downward. If energy and food are excluded,
overall prices in 2015 still only rose by 1.8 percent.
This rate is still below the Fed’s target range for
inflation. Food prices rose by 1.9 percent, while
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energy prices fell by a staggering 16.7 percent, a
much bigger drop than those recorded in 2014
and 2013. Producer prices (finished goods) fell
by 3.4 percent in 2015, the first time the category
has experienced a price decline since 2009. This
decrease was mainly caused by falling energy prices
(which impact both producers and consumers) and
a huge reduction in crude material prices. Crude
material prices fell by 24.2 percent in 2015, mostly
driven by declines in the prices of fuels and power.
Gas fuels, crude petroleum, and refined petroleum
product prices fell by 45.5 percent, 50.8 percent,
and 37.8 percent, respectively.
The Federal Reserve is charged with maintaining
both price stability and full employment. These
goals can often be at odds: price stability
requires some minimal level of inflation and
some yield of interest on savings. Conversely,
the Fed can stimulate demand (and thus hope
to increase employment) by keeping interest
rates low. This is what the Fed did in response
to the Great Recession. The Federal Reserve
kept the Federal Funds rate low (below 0.25
percent) for twenty-eight consecutive quarters
by the end of 2015. Finally, in December 2015,
the Fed raised the Federal Funds rate from zero
to 0.25 percent. The Fed is predicted to slowly
increase the Federal Funds rate until it returns to
more normal levels. Expect the Federal Funds
rate to exceed 1.0 percent by the end of 2016.
As noted above, these anticipated increases are
viewed by many economists as a signal of the
Fed’s belief in the strength of the recovery as
well as a necessary step to normalize rates. The
Fed had maintained that interest rates would stay
low until the unemployment rate was below 6.5
percent and labor market indicators improved.
The unemployment rate in 2015 remained below
that threshold and continued dropping from
5.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014 to 5.0
percent in the fourth quarter of 2015. The Fed
previously announced that they would begin raising
interest rates in mid-2015, but this did not happen
until December 2015 because of the current
Figure 1.3: Consumer Energy Prices Drop in 2015
Consumer Energy Prices (2009 = 100)
150.0
140.0
130.0
120.0
110.0
100.0
90.0
Year:Quarter
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and IHS Global Insight, Inc.
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The U.S. Economy: Year in Review, continued
global slowdown. The December hike was the first
time the Fed has raised rates since 2006. There is
some worry that rising interest rates will bolster
an already strong dollar and lead to an even larger
trade deficit in 2016. However, stronger global
growth and rising interest rates in other countries
will help temper these possible impacts.
Although inflation is not an imminent concern
for the U.S. economy, there are some signs that
slightly higher prices are on the horizon. Wages
are finally showing some signs of increasing, and
the falling unemployment rate means additional
tightening in the labor market. Moreover, energy
prices have likely bottomed out and, as they
recover, will add to inflationary pressures. There
have been ongoing concerns since the end of
the recession that deflation rather than inflation
was a greater risk to the economy. Continued
economic growth is reducing the likelihood of
deflation. There is an excess of global capacity
in the manufacturing and this is where ongoing
downward price pressures are expected.
The Labor Market
The national unemployment rate continued
falling for the fifth year, down to 5.3 percent for
2015 compared to 6.2 percent in 2014 and 7.4
percent in 2013. The unemployment rate’s descent
has been slow but consistent. However, the labor
force participation rate is well below relatively
recent historical levels and is an ongoing cause
for concern. The labor force participation rate
held at 61.3 percent for 2015, the same as in 2014.
For comparison, the labor force participation
rate in 1996 was 65.0 percent. The labor force
participation rate for those under 60 has fallen
(down to 71.2 percent from 75.6 percent in 1996),
while the participation rate for those 60 and over
has risen (up to 18.3 percent from 11.5 percent in
1996). Some portion of the falling participation
rate may be explained by (1) fewer people between
the ages of 16-24 working because they are in
school and (2) discouraged workers. A discouraged
unemployed worker is one who stops looking for
work and thus is technically no longer considered
unemployed.
Figure 1.4: Unemployment Continues Dropping, but the Participation Rate Also Remains Low
66.0
12.0
65.0
64.0
8.0
63.0
6.0
62.0
4.0
61.0
2.0
Participation Rate (%)
Unemployment Rate (%)
10.0
60.0
0.0
59.0
Unemployment Rate
Participation Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and IHS Global Insight, Inc.
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Discouraged workers imply that the relatively
low participation rate in 2015 is part of the
reason the unemployment rate is falling (since
the unemployment rate only counts people
without jobs who are actively seeking work). Many
economists believed that once the recession was
over, discouraged workers would re-enter the labor
force, and the participation rate would bounce
back up. Unfortunately, this has not happened.
Janet Yellen, the Chair of the Fed’s Board of
Governors, estimates that there are currently two
million discouraged workers who are not employed
in the current labor market but would be employed
in a labor market with higher wages and less slack
(Yellen, 2015).
An additional concern is productivity, which
has recently stagnated and increased by only 0.7
percent in both 2015 and 2014. Productivity
increased significantly in the recession and its
immediate aftermath: it rose by 3.2 percent in 2009
and 3.3 percent in 2010. Further, although 2008
experienced low productivity growth, productivity
growth has traditionally been high in the modern
U.S. economy. Since 1996, no year before the Great
Recession had productivity growth of less than 1.6
percent.
1.3.
The U.S. Forecast
Even amidst uncertainty about the global
economy, the U.S. is expected to continue on its
trajectory of steady growth in 2016 and 2017.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is expected to grow by a
robust 2.7 percent in 2016, following 2.4 percent
growth recorded in 2015. The fourth quarter of
2015 recorded annualized GDP growth of only
1.2 percent due to unexpectedly slow consumer
spending. This followed strong GDP growth in the
second and third quarters of 3.9 and 2.0 percent,
respectively; growth in these quarters was driven by
growing consumer spending. Calendar year 2016
is expected to have solid growth each quarter: 3.0
percent in the first and second quarters and 3.3
percent in the third and fourth.
The factors contributing to this growth in the
next year are primarily strong consumer spending,
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More encouragingly, the economy continued
creating jobs in 2015, a positive indicator since
the economy just reached its pre-recession level
of jobs in 2014. The economy added 2.9 million
nonfarm payroll jobs in 2015, a 2.1 percent
increase. The total number of nonfarm payroll
jobs reached 141.9 million, making 2015 the
second year that post-recession nonfarm payroll
jobs surpassed their pre-recession level. Most of
the job gains came from the private sector, which
added 2.8 million jobs. The public sector added
91 thousand jobs; 84 thousand of these jobs were
added at the state and local level.
Of the major sectors, professional and business
services added the most jobs: 653 thousand jobs in
2015. However, both education and health services
and trade, transportation, and utilities added large
numbers of jobs, 584 thousand and 537 thousand,
respectively. Notably, the construction sector
continued to grow, adding 249 thousand jobs. The
sector that did the poorest was natural resources
and mining, the only sector to shed jobs, which lost
59 thousand jobs for a decline in employment of
6.6 percent.
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
continuing growth in residential investment, and
a healthy pace of job creation. U.S. consumer
spending is expected to rise by 3.0 percent, housing
starts are expected to reach 1.3 million, and the
economy is predicted to create 2.4 million jobs.
The U.S. economy’s cornerstone of domestic
demand will help shield it from many impacts of
the global slowdown, but manufacturing as well
as natural resources and mining will be impacted.
Manufacturing is expected to continue to suffer
from fallen global demand and an appreciating U.S.
dollar. Low global commodity and energy prices
will continue to depress growth in the natural
resources sector. These same low prices will be a
boon to consumers.
Both U.S. fiscal and monetary policy are oriented
for a year of robust growth. The Fed is expected to
The U.S. Economy
1.3.
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The U.S. Forecast, continued
continue increasing interest rates in 2016 following
an increase at the end of 2015. U.S. federal
purchases are predicted to rise for the first time
since 2010 building on a bipartisan budget accord
that was reached before the year’s end. The will
help stabilize political influence on the economy
through 2016.
Consumption
Consumer spending was strong throughout
most of 2015, and that pattern is expected to
continue into 2016 with an annual growth rate
of 2.7 percent. This positive consumer spending
depends on continued growth in inflation-adjusted
income, automobile sales, and real estate, as well as
continuing low inflation rates.
Inflation-adjusted disposable income is expected
to grow by 3.1 percent in 2016 compared to 3.6
percent in 2015. Inflation-adjusted household net
worth is expected to grow by 3.4 percent in 2016
compared to 3.2 percent in 2015. Consumption
growth in 2016 is expected to be relatively stable
and grow 3.0 percent, 3.2 percent, 3.4 percent, and
3.4 percent for the first, second, third, and fourth
quarters, respectively.
Spending on durable goods should remain
strong in 2016 as a result of the recovering
economy and job market. Durable goods spending
is expected to increase by 6.3 percent compared to
increasing by 6.1 percent in 2015. Durable goods
spending is expected to continue to outpace both
services spending (expected to increase by 2.5
percent) and nondurable goods spending (expected
to increase by 3.1 percent). While spending on new
light trucks is expected to grow by only 4.0 percent
compared to 10.2 percent in 2015, spending on
recreational goods and vehicles is predicted to stay
strong and increase by 11.2 percent.
The Labor Market
Employment growth is expected to remain solid
and steady. The unemployment rate is expected to
drop through 2016: it was 5.0 percent in the fourth
quarter of 2015 and is expected to fall to 4.9 by
the fourth quarter of 2016. Based on headline
statistics like the overall unemployment rate, the
labor market is getting close to full employment.
Other measures—like counts of discouraged
workers and the low labor force participation
rate—suggest that significant underlying
weaknesses remain in the labor market.
The expected 1.7 percent rate of job creation
is slower than the recorded rate for 2015 or
2014, which saw increases of 2.1 and 1.9 percent,
respectively. Nevertheless, the economy is expected
to add 2.4 million more jobs in 2016. The first
quarter is expected to be particularly robust with
663 thousand jobs added. The sectors expected to
experience the strongest growth are the education
and health services sector as well as professional
and business services, which are expected to add
600 thousand and 634 thousand jobs, respectively.
Only one major sector is expected to cut payrolls:
natural resources and mining, the same sector that
shed jobs in 2015. Due to plummeting petroleum
and natural gas prices, the natural resources and
mining sector is expected to cut 93 thousand jobs.
Productivity, which has slumped in recent years,
is expected to grow by 1.5 percent in 2016. There
is some evidence that productivity has slowed,
including the disconnect between very strong
rates of job growth and the more modest but still
respectable rate of GDP growth. The lack of a
rebound in productivity would translate into slower
growth for the year.
A major concern in recent years has been the
decline in the labor force participation rate, i.e.,
the share of the adult population employed or
unemployed and actively pursuing a job. From
2008 to 2011, the labor force actually shrank by
703 thousand workers. Labor force expansion
has not reached 1.0 percent for any year since the
recession, but in 2016 it is expected to reach 1.5
percent. This is close to the 1.7 percent rate of job
creation expected in 2016.
Investment and Interest Rates
The housing sector is expected to continue its
recovery, despite rising interest rates which increase
monthly mortgage payments. Pent-up demand,
low housing prices, and a healthy labor market
will carry the housing market forward. Residential
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1.3.
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The U.S. Economy
The U.S. Forecast, continued
fixed investment is expected to grow by 9.5
percent in 2016, marking its sixth year of growth.
The first quarter is expected to be particularly
strong, with an annualized growth rate of 11.2
percent. Housing starts are expected to increase
to 1.3 million units compared to 1.1 million in
2015, notably still below the pre-recession level
of 1.8 million in 2006. Sales of existing homes
are expected to increase to 5.3 million units, 81.4
percent of their 2006 level.
Housing prices are predicted to continue rising,
with a 3.4 percent increase in average existing
home prices expected in 2016. The average price
of new homes is expected to rise much faster and
increase by 7.1 percent, following a significantly
smaller increase of 3.2 percent in 2015. The
FHFA Purchase-Only Index is projected to rise
by 4.8 percent in 2016, following increases of
5.6 percent and 5.5 percent in 2015 and 2014,
respectively.
The Fed finally began raising interest rates at the
end of 2015. It is expected that the Federal Funds
rate will reach 1.3 percent by the fourth quarter of
2016. The 3-Month Treasury Bill rate is expected
to increase to 1.2 percent by the fourth quarter
of 2016, and the 30-Year Fixed Mortgage rate is
expected to increase to 4.6 percent. Some fear
that rising interest rates could slow the housing
market’s recovery, but the overall consensus is that
the housing market has strengthened enough to
withstand rising interest rates. The Fed’s interest
rate hikes are already incorporated into market
considerations.
Nonresidential fixed investment is expected
to grow by 5.0 percent in 2016 compared to
3.4 percent in 2015. Equipment investment is
expected to account for most of the growth
in nonresidential fixed investment, advancing
6.6 percent. Growing equipment investment is
dependent on rising oil prices, the global economy
gaining momentum, and exchange rates stabilizing.
Structures investment is expected to grow by only
2.6 percent.
Business inventory spending is not expected to
grow as quickly as it did in 2015; the anticipated
gain in 2016 is only 1.5 percent. The first sign of
Figure 1.5: The Federal Funds Rate Is Expected to Rise, Which Will Push Mortgage Rates Up
8.00
7.00
7.50
6.00
Federal Funds Rate (%)
5.00
6.50
6.00
4.00
5.50
3.00
5.00
4.50
2.00
4.00
1.00
3.50
0.00
3.00
Federal Funds Rate
Source: Federal Reserve Bank, Freddie Mac, and IHS Global Insight, Inc.
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2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (%)
7.00
The U.S. Economy
1.3.
|
CHAPTER 1
The U.S. Forecast, continued
a quickening global economy will be increased
changes in inventory, rather than changes in the
trade deficit.
Federal Budget
Because of a bipartisan budget agreement, the
federal budget is expected to experience its first
increase since 2010 and grow by 3.6 percent to $1.2
trillion. The deficit is projected to rise to $500.5
billion compared to $438.9 billion in 2015. Any
deficit will add to the overall U.S. debt, which is
predicted to hit $19.4 trillion in 2016. This would
make 2016 the sixth year that U.S. federal debt has
exceeded U.S. GDP.
The Congressional budget deal includes an
increase in defense and nondefense spending,
as well as cuts to Medicare and Social Security
benefits. Defense spending is projected to rise
by 3.1 percent and nondefense spending by 4.4
percent. At the state and local level, spending is
expected to grow by 1.5 percent.
China’s Slowdown
The economic situation in China is a major concern for the current global economy. The resolution of China’s economic
slowdown or its continuance will impact worldwide growth in the coming year. China now has the largest economy in the
world, with a purchasing power parity GDP of $17.2 trillion in 2014 (compared to $16.6 trillion for the U.S.), even though
China’s GDP per capita was only $8 thousand in 2014 (compared to $55 thousand for the U.S.). It is unsurprising then that
China’s slowdown and shift away from manufacturing and toward services should be felt throughout the world. On January
4, 2016, Chinese markets reopened for the year and subsequently shut down after a seven percent drop in the stock market.
A repeat of this event happened on January 7. Clearly, the Chinese market will continue to contract in early 2016. What is
causing this slowdown and how will it impact the U.S.?
From 2002 to 2011, China enjoyed GDP growth of at least 9 percent per year including peaks of 14 percent. However, in
2012 growth fell to 7.7 percent and growth is expected to have fallen to 6.5 percent in 2015. A primary cause of this slowing
growth is China’s aging population. China ascended to prominence in the global marketplace because of its large supply of
labor and subsequently low manufacturing costs. Once the generation born under the One Child Policy matured, that labor
supply became constrained. Now, with a more slowly growing labor force, wages are rising and a low-cost manufacturing
model for China is no longer viable (Kessler & Murray, 2015).
The Chinese government is aware of this and the economy is intentionally being shifted away from manufacturing to
services. This shift is viewed by many as necessary to China’s economic development and is crucial to it transitioning to an
economy fostered by domestic consumption and not by investment. The transition to a more consumption-dominant economy
is already playing out: the International Monetary Fund estimates that in 2014 consumption contributed 0.1 percentage point
more to China’s GDP than investment did (International Monetary Fund, 2015). Regardless of how necessary this transition
may be, it remains a time of slowed growth and new vulnerabilities within the economy.
The necessity of a lessening dependence on investment was made clear by the contraction of China’s real estate sector.
China’s real estate bubble deflated and prices fell by 6 percent. The popping of the real estate bubble contributes to China’s
economic slowdown on its own, but that is not where its impact on the slowdown stopped. China’s local governments had
a large stake in real estate: they had been selling off local lands or leveraging them. Falling real estate prices also forced
local governments to stop overleveraging and begin investing less, further contributing to the economic slowdown (Kessler &
Murray, 2015).
In addition to all of this, China devalued its currency twice in the past year: once in summer 2015 and again in early 2016.
China is attempting to boost its faltering economy by depreciating its currency, like many other nations in the aftermath of the
Great Recession. However, this has only increased market fragility, since investors now fear that the currency will be
continued on page 14
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CHAPTER 1
1.3.
|
The U.S. Economy
The U.S. Forecast, continued
continued from page 13
devalued further. The Chinese government is now faced with a slowdown with multiple causes. On a global stage, China’s
slowdown is rippling through the world economy. The shift away from manufacturing has lowered demand for commodities
and has exacerbated the drop in commodity prices worldwide. Further, the falling value of the yuan makes Chinese imports
more expensive. Trading partners that China imports commodities from – Brazil, Canada, and Russia – are feeling the direct
impact, contributing to recessions in these countries.
It remains to be seen how China will affect the global economy in 2016 and 2017. On the positive side, the U.S. economy
has limited direct exposure to China in terms of trade. In addition, falling commodity prices have translated into lower costs
of production for producers and importantly lower gasoline prices for consumers. The downside risk depends on the degree
to which China’s slowdown spreads through emerging markets and commodity-exporting nations. Some economies, like
Japan, do have considerable direct exposure to the Chinese slowdown. The best bet at this time is a further slowdown in
China, coupled with ongoing market instability, but sufficient global strength to ward off recession.
International Trade
The global economy is expected to continue
to move at a sluggish pace, with recessions or
slowdowns in many countries. Few of these
nations are significant trading partners with the
U.S., but the comparably robust U.S. recovery
and U.S. dollar (which is expected to continue
appreciating until mid-2016) mean that imports
are expected to rise much faster than exports. In
addition, the Chinese yuan was devalued again in
early 2016, continuing its impact of driving down
the cost of Chinese goods for exporters and
driving up the cost for goods imported into China,
including commodities and raw materials.
Inflation-adjusted exports of goods and services
are projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2016
compared to 1.0 percent in 2015. Exports of
capital goods excluding automobiles are expected
to continue shrinking by 1.6 percent compared
to a decrease of 2.8 percent in 2015. Imports
are expected to record much faster growth than
exports, 4.9 percent in 2016 compared to 5.0
percent in 2015. Imports of petroleum products
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2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
are expected to be particularly strong in the
wake of low prices: petroleum product imports
are expected to grow by 11.1 percent in 2016
compared to 2.1 percent in 2015.
Inflation and Prices
Inflation is expected to remain low in 2016
with consumer prices expected to increase by only
1.2 percent. This increase is higher than the low
inflation of 0.1 percent experienced in 2015, but
lower than in any other year since 2009. Consumer
energy prices are expected to continue falling and
decrease by 7.6 percent in 2016. Oil prices are
expected to continue falling into the first quarter
of 2016 to $38.48 per barrel but then bounce back
and reach $55.52 per barrel in inflation-adjusted
terms.
By 2017, inflation is expected to reach 2.6
percent, hitting the Fed’s target range for the first
time since 2012. Consumer energy prices are also
expected to rise by 8.6 percent, ending a four-year
period of price declines.
The U.S. Economy
1.3.
|
CHAPTER 1
The U.S. Forecast, continued
Figure 1.6: The Trade Deficit Is Expected to Continue as Import Growth Outpaces Export
Growth
15.0
Import/Export Growth (%)
10.0
5.0
0.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
Exports
Imports
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and IHS Global Insight, Inc.
Figure 1.7: The Price of Crude Oil Will Begin Rebounding Mid-2016
140.00
Brent Crude, Spot Price ($/bbl)
120.00
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
Year:Quarter
Source: Commodity Research Bureau and IHS Global Insight, Inc.
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
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1.3.
The U.S. Forecast, continued
Inflation Expectations
In the past year, the U.S. economy experienced very low rates of inflation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most
familiar measure of inflation, only rose by 0.1 percent in 2015. Core-CPI, which excludes energy and food prices (two
sectors known to have price volatility), rose by 1.8 percent, still below the Fed’s benchmark of 2.0 percent inflation. Falling
gasoline and commodity prices, low rates of wage increase, and a strong dollar are all contributing to these low inflation
rates. How inflation behaves in the next year is dependent on all of these factors, and none of them have a clear-cut path.
Gasoline prices are expected to continue falling in early 2016 but begin recovering mid-year. By 2017, gasoline prices
are expected to be $58 per barrel compared to $54 per barrel in 2015. This rebound is contingent on increased oil demand
(spurred on by low prices) outpacing supply. If this happens, prices will begin to increase so that the market can return to
equilibrium. The ongoing global slowdown raises some question about the vitality of demand in the near term and whether
prices will in fact tick back up. As this report goes to press, there is an increased likelihood of still lower gasoline prices.
The path for commodity prices is also tricky since much of their fall has been caused by the global slowdown. As nations’
economies slow, they demand fewer commodities. Lower demand then drives prices downward. This situation is aggravated
because supply had risen during recent years to match increased demand as China’s economy expanded at a booming
pace each year. With a slowing Chinese economy, the commodities market faced a higher supply than usual and lower
demand than anticipated, which led to commodity prices spiraling down to levels not seen since the Great Recession. The
resolution or continuance of the global slowdown will determine how commodity prices behave in 2016 and beyond. The
global slowdown is predicted to continue through 2016; likewise, commodity prices are predicted to remain depressed
through 2016 as well. Low commodity and gasoline prices drive overall prices downward because they are such an important
element of the costs of production.
Additionally, as other economies slow and the U.S. economy expands, the U.S. dollar appreciates relative to other
currencies. As the dollar strengthens, U.S. exports become more expensive and U.S. imports become less expensive.
To exacerbate this state of affairs, many nations that are experiencing slowed growth are responding by devaluing their
currency. This drives the U.S. dollar’s value up further in relative terms and makes imports from those nations even cheaper.
These cheaper import prices also depress inflation. And, like low commodity prices, cheaper imports are expected to
continue into 2016 as the global slowdown lingers.
Finally, low levels of wage growth have put downward pressure on inflation by helping avert a wage-cost spiral. This low
wage growth is tied to a labor market with slack and the low levels of productivity growth seen since the end of the Great
Recession. In 2016, productivity is expected to increase by 1.5 percent compared to 0.7 percent in 2015. There is already
small evidence of upward pressure on wages: hourly wages experienced higher growth rates at the end of 2015 than at its
beginning. Lessening slack in the labor market will also help push inflation upward.
In addition to all these factors, it is important to remember inflation expectations impact inflation itself. Inflation
expectations can create environments where expectations become reality: if firms expect high rates of inflation in the next
period, they may increase their current period demand in order to take advantage of relatively cheaper current period prices,
which in turn will drive prices up.
Consumer surveys in 2015 point to consumers’ inflation expectations falling as 2015 wound to a close. The Survey of
Consumer Finances revealed that consumers’ three-year inflation expectations fell 0.1 percentage points to 2.8 percent from
the October survey to the November survey (Sajdak, 2015).
Janet Yellen, the Chair of the Fed’s Board of Governors, points out that short-run consumer inflation expectations are
often responsive to current inflation levels (Yellen, 2015), and short-run business forecasts may be more indicative of future
short-run inflation. Business inflation expectations (as computed by the Federal Reserve of Atlanta) increased a tenth of
a percentage point from the November survey to the December survey. Surveyed businesses expect to see 1.9 percent
inflation in 2016. Global Insight, Inc., predicts that the core-CPI will reach 2.0 percent by 2016, and overall CPI will reach 2.0
by 2017. This forecast is dependent on rising wages, rising gasoline prices, and the continuation of the global slowdown.
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The U.S. Economy
1.4.
•
•
•
CHAPTER 1
Alternative Scenarios
Rising employment and consumption were the
basis for the U.S. economy’s strength in 2015. It is
noteworthy that the national economy performed
well in the face of strong headwinds from the
global economy. Continued growth will depend on
how the global slowdown plays out, commodity
and gasoline price trends, the resilience of
financial markets, and consumers’ responses to the
aforementioned.
In the pessimistic scenario (20 percent
probability), the U.S. stock market weakens
appreciably in 2016 and the global slowdown
continues unabated. Foreign investors buy U.S.
securities, driving up the value of the dollar further.
The dollar’s appreciation makes U.S. goods more
expensive and demand for U.S. manufacturing falls
precipitously. These events drive down consumer
1.5.
|
and business confidence and thus job creation. The
economy contracts and home sales decline. The
Fed slows the rate at which it increases interest
rates.
In the optimistic scenario (15 percent
possibility), the global slowdown relents. Demand
for gasoline outpaces supply, thus driving up prices.
Structural changes occur in other economies that
improve the fundamentals of the global economy.
In addition to these positive external events,
the stock market recovers from its correction in
2015. Credit conditions soften, which leads to
more residential and nonresidential investment.
Consumer confidence and spending rise, and the
economy speeds up the pace of job creation. The
Fed quickens the rate at which it increases interest
rates.
Forecast Summary and Conclusions
Inflation-adjusted GDP will grow at a
healthy 2.7 percent rate in 2016, following
2.4 percent growth in 2015.
The Fed will continue raising interest rates.
The Federal Funds rate is expected to reach
1.3 percent by the fourth quarter of 2016,
and the 30-Year Fixed Mortgage rate is
expected to reach 4.6 percent.
Consumer spending will continue to bolster
the economy and grow by 3.0 percent in
2016 in response to growing disposable
income and ongoing job creation.
•
•
•
Inflation will remain low at 1.2 percent, due
to falling energy prices.
The recovery of the housing market will
continue and residential investment will
increase by 9.5 percent.
Exports and imports will continue diverging
as the U.S. economy remains strong, the
dollar appreciates, and the global economy
stumbles. Exports are expected to increase
by 2.3 percent while imports increase by 4.9
percent.
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CHAPTER 1
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The U.S. Economy
1.6.References
Arias, M. A., & Wen, Y. (2015). Recovery from the
Great Recession has varied around the world.
The Regional Economist: Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis, 23(4), 10-11.
International Monetary Fund. (2015). IMF Country
Report: People’s Republic of China. Retrieved
January 13, 2016 from https://www.imf.org/
external/pubs/ft/scr/2015/cr15234.pdf.
Kessler, L. & Murray, M. (2015). Domestic
economy remains strong in the face of the
global slowdown. Report for Tennessee Valley
Authority.
Sajdak, K. (2015) Consumers anticipate better
labor market, mixed inflation outcomes.
Liberty Street Economics: Federal Reserve
Bank of New York. Retrieved January 12,
2016 from https://www.newyorkfed.org/
newsevents/news/research/2015/an151109.
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Wen, Y., & Wu, J. (2014). Withstanding the Great
Recession like China. Working Paper, Federal
Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Yellen, J.L. (2015). The economic outlook
and monetary policy. Speech given for
the Economic Club of Washington, D.C.
Retrieved January 12, 2016 from http://
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/
yellen20151202a.htm.
The Tennessee Economy: Short-Term Outlook
|
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2: THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY: SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK
In this chapter—
2.1.Introduction
2.2.
2.3.
The Current Economic Environment
The Labor Market
Income and Taxable Sales
Fiscal Update
Federal Government
State Finances across the Nation
The Southeastern States and
Tennessee
2.4.
Short-Term Outlook
2.4.
Tennessee Forecast at a
Glance
2.5.
Tennessee’s Agricultural and
Forest Industries
and Rural Economy
Introduction
Agriculture and Primary Forestry
Food, Fiber, and Forestry
Manufacturing in Tennessee
Rural Economies and Well-Being
Governor’s Rural Challenge
Summary
References Used
2.1.Introduction
Economic growth in Tennessee has been similar
to that of the U.S. in recent years. Both the state
and nation have now enjoyed more than six years
of growth since the end of the Great Recession.
In Tennessee, inflation-adjusted gross domestic
product (GDP) expanded by 2.4 percent in 2015
and is projected to advance an additional 2.3
percent in 2016. Similarly, the U.S. economy grew
by 2.4 percent in 2015 and growth is projected to
accelerate to 2.7 percent in 2016.
In the U.S. there were 292,000 new jobs created
last December and 2.7 million new jobs for
2015 as a whole. This was below the 3.1 million
new jobs created in 2014, but outpaced job
creation for the three years prior (2011-2013).
Significant employment growth can also be seen
in the Tennessee labor market, where nonfarm
employment increased by 1.9 percent in 2015,
representing an additional 54,600 new jobs.
Manufacturing employment also expanded by 1.9
percent in 2015, outpacing the 1.1 percent rate of
growth seen in the nation. After recording a 6.5
percent unemployment rate during the first quarter
of 2015, Tennessee’s unemployment rate finally fell
below 6 percent during the second quarter – it had
been seven years since the state last registered an
unemployment rate under 6 percent (Tennessee’s
unemployment rate was 5.7 percent during the
first quarter of 2008.) In the second half of 2015,
Tennessee’s unemployment hovered between
5.6 and 5.7 percent. The state unemployment
rate is projected to fall to 5.5 percent for 2016
which is slightly above the nation’s 4.9 percent
unemployment rate projected for 2016. In 2015,
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
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CHAPTER 2
2.1.
|
The Tennessee Economy: Short-Term Outlook
Introduction, continued
nominal personal income in Tennessee grew at
a faster pace than in the U.S., expanding by 4.7
percent compared to 4.5 percent growth for
the nation. State personal income growth will
accelerate to 4.8 percent in 2016, compared to
only 4.2 percent growth projected for the nation.
For nonfarm employees, the average annual wage
2.2.
The Current Economic Environment
The Labor Market
Tennessee nonfarm employment grew at a
healthy 1.9 percent rate during 2015. This was
slightly slower than the 2.1 percent growth rate
registered one year prior. Job growth in Tennessee
was also slower than national employment growth
of 2.1 percent for 2015. Tennessee nonfarm
employment growth started off slowly in 2015,
growing by only 0.5 percent in the first quarter
before rebounding to 2.0 percent growth (on a
seasonally-adjusted basis) for both the second and
third quarters. Similar to what occurred in 2014,
the slow start to 2015 was largely due to a cold and
snowy winter. For the year, nonfarm employment
totaled 2,870,733 which is only slightly above the
pre-recession peak of 2,797,781 in 2007. It is
rather remarkable that employment in 2015 was so
close to the level seen eight years earlier.
In 2015, nonfarm employment growth was led
by the leisure and hospitality sector which grew by
3.3 percent. Employment in the natural resources,
mining, and construction sector expanded by 3.2
percent, and job growth of 2.8 percent was seen
in the professional and business services sector.
Three sectors experienced job losses in 2015,
including the information sector (-1.3 percent),
other services (-1.0 percent), and the federal
government (-1.1 percent). This marks the second
consecutive year of job losses in Tennessee’s
information sector, and the fifth straight year of
federal government job losses in Tennessee.
Manufacturing employment in Tennessee grew
by 1.9 percent in 2015, outpacing the nation’s 1.1
20
|
was $47,219 in 2015, representing a 3.1 percent
increase over the previous year, outstripping the
rate of growth in inflation. Nominal taxable sales
in Tennessee expanded by 6.2 percent in 2015, and
are projected to grow an additional 4.7 percent in
2016.
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
percent growth rate. This was the fifth consecutive
year of manufacturing employment growth for the
state following more than a decade of setbacks.
Within manufacturing, employment in the durable
goods manufacturing sector grew by 3.0 percent
in 2015, while nondurable goods manufacturing
employment grew by only 0.1 percent. Using the
most recent data available, employment growth by
county is presented in Figure 2.1. From June 2014
to June 2015, statewide employment grew by 2.8
percent. During this period there were 80 counties
that reported employment gains, 44 of which
outgained the state average of 2.8 percent. Among
the counties to see employment growth, two
enjoyed gains that exceeded 13 percent: Van Buren
County reported employment growth of 15.3
percent and Pickett County experienced growth of
13.7 percent. By contrast there were 13 counties
that faced employment contractions between June
2014 and June 2015. Job losses were the largest in
Wayne County at -7.2 percent, followed by Lake
County at -4.6 percent. Job growth was generally
stronger in and around the state’s metropolitan
areas.
Tennessee’s civilian labor force, which includes
employed people and unemployed people who
are actively seeking work, increased by 2.3 percent
in 2015. This was largely driven by a 3.1 percent
increase in the number of employed people in
Tennessee. The number of unemployed people
also fell by 8.0 percent in 2015 and the labor
force participation rate (i.e. the percentage of the
adult population in the civilian labor force) grew
The Tennessee Economy: Short-Term Outlook
2.2.
|
CHAPTER 2
The Current Economic Environment, continued
Figure 2.1: Over Eighty Percent of Tennessee Counties Experienced Job Growth
in the Second Quarter of 2015
(Year-Over-Year Growth in Total Covered Employment, June 2014- June 2015)
Tennessee: 2.8%
Employment Gain/Loss
0.0% or loss
0.1% to 2.7%
2.8% to 6.4%
6.5% or greater
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
by 1.1 percent, indicating that more Tennesseans
found jobs in 2015 than in 2014. This was the
first time since 2010 that Tennessee’s labor force
participation rate increased. However, at 57.7
percent, the low labor force participation rate
is indicative of ongoing problems in the labor
market, paralleling the situation for the national
economy (see Chapter 1). Figure 2.2 shows that
the labor force participation rates for both the state
and the nation have been declining for the last
decade, however this trend has been much more
pronounced in Tennessee. These declines can be
explained, at least in part, by an increase in retirees
as the baby boom generation ages out of the
workforce, but this number also likely encapsulates
discouraged workers who have quit searching for
a job. The more serious problem in Tennessee
is likely tied to the fact that the state has a more
poorly educated workforce than the nation as a
whole, as well as a less healthy adult population.
Both educational attainment and health status
are correlated with labor market participation. It
remains to be seen if the turnaround in the labor
force participation rate in 2015 is part of a new
trend.
Tennessee’s unemployment rate averaged
5.9 percent in 2015, which is higher than the
5.3 percent unemployment rate for the nation.
Between 2014 and 2015 Tennessee’s annual
unemployment rate has fallen by 0.7 percentage
points, while the U.S. unemployment rate dropped
0.9 percentage points. During the first quarter of
2015 Tennessee’s unemployment rate was pegged
at 6.5 percent, but then dropped to 5.8 percent in
the second quarter and 5.6 percent by the fourth
quarter. This fourth quarter unemployment rate of
5.6 percent was Tennessee’s lowest unemployment
rate since the fourth quarter of 2007.
Figure 2.3 presents the seasonally-adjusted
unemployment rates of all southeastern states
for the month of December. Tennessee’s
unemployment rate of 5.6 percent was slightly
above the southeast average of 5.5 percent but was
lower than 5 of the 12 southeastern states. The
highest unemployment rate in the region was in
Mississippi (6.4 percent), followed by West Virginia
(6.3 percent); the lowest rate in the region was in
Virginia (4.2 percent).
Figure 2.4 presents non-seasonally adjusted
county-level unemployment rates for November
2015. There were three counties that registered an
unemployment rate above 9.0 percent – Hancock
County (9.9 percent), Lauderdale County (9.4
percent) and Scott County (9.3 percent). While
the unemployment rates in these counties were
well above the non-seasonally adjusted state and
national averages of 5.4 percent and 4.8 percent
respectively, all three of these counties had
reported unemployment rates above 10.5 percent
one year prior so they are at least trending in the
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
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CHAPTER 2
2.2.
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The Tennessee Economy: Short-Term Outlook
The Current Economic Environment, continued
Figure 2.2: The Labor Force Participation Rate Remains Low in Tennessee and in the Nation
66.0
Labor Force Participation Rate (%)
64.0
62.0
60.0
58.0
56.0
54.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
TN
U.S.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and CBER-UT.
Figure 2.3: Tennessee’s Monthly Unemployment Rate Is Near the Middle of the Pack Among
Southeast States (December 2015)
7.0%
6.4% 6.3%
6.2% 6.1%
Unemployment Rate (%)
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
|
5.3%
5.0% 5.0%
4.8%
4.2%
1.0%
22
5.6% 5.6% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
The Tennessee Economy: Short-Term Outlook
2.2.
|
CHAPTER 2
The Current Economic Environment, continued
right direction. Conversely, there were 24 counties
with unemployment rates below the state average
of 5.4 percent. The lowest non-seasonally-adjusted
unemployment rate in the state was in Williamson
County (3.9 percent) followed by Rutherford
County and Davidson County both at 4.2 percent.
Each of these county’s rates were below the
national average of 4.8 percent.
Income and Taxable Sales
Nominal personal income in Tennessee grew
by 4.7 percent in 2015, which was slightly faster
than the 4.5 percent growth rate registered for the
nation. Personal income growth was driven largely
by proprietors’ income which increased by 5.1
percent and wages and salary income which grew
by 5.0 percent. Transfer payments were up 4.8
percent, and rent, interest, and dividend income
increased by 4.1 percent. Nominal personal income
per capita grew to $41,603 in 2015, representing a
3.6 percent increase over 2014.
Figure 2.5 presents per capita personal income
in current dollars for all southeastern states during
the third quarter of 2015. At $42,215 per person,
Tennessee ranked fourth among the 12 southeast
states. Per capita personal income in Tennessee was
slightly below the southeast average of $42,544 and
well below the national average of $48,051. Among
the southeastern states, Virginia had the highest
per capita personal income ($52,498) and was the
only southeastern state where per capita income
was above the national average. Per capita personal
income was lowest in Mississippi ($35,678)
followed by West Virginia ($37,228).
Figure 2.6 reports per capita personal income
in current dollars across all Tennessee counties
in 2014 (the most recent year for which data are
available.) Williamson County continues to have
the highest per capita personal income at $71,761
and eclipses per capita income in even the second
highest county (Davidson County at $54,307).
There were only four Tennessee counties with
per capita income above the national average of
$46,049 – Williamson, Davidson, Trousdale, and
Fayette. Including the aforementioned, there were
only four additional counties where per capita
income was above the state average of $40,457 –
Shelby, Hamilton, Knox, and Wilson. Conversely,
per capita income was lowest in Bledsoe County
at $21,432, which is less than 50 percent of the
national average.
Taxable sales continue to grow rapidly in
Tennessee. Compared to a high base where taxable
sales increased by 4.9 percent in 2014, taxable sales
Figure 2.4: Eighty-Seven Percent of Tennessee Counties are Reporting Unemployment Rates
Above the National Average
(November 2015)
Tennessee: 5.4%
United States: 4.8%
Non-Seasonally Adjusted Rate
Less than 4.8%
4.8% to 5.3%
5.4% to 6.5%
6.6% to 7.7%
7.8% or greater
Note: Not Seasonally Adjusted
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
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CHAPTER 2
2.2.
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The Tennessee Economy: Short-Term Outlook
The Current Economic Environment, continued
Figure 2.5: Tennessee’s Per Capita Personal Income (in Current Dollars) Is Slightly Below the
Southeast Average, 2015Q3
Virginia
52,498
United States
48,051
Florida
44,486
Louisiana
43,255
Southeast
42,544
Tennessee
42,215
North Carolina
41,114
Georgia
40,791
Arkansas
39,448
Kentucky
39,289
Alabama
39,115
South Carolina
38,265
West Virginia
37,228
Mississippi
35,678
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure 2.6: Per Capita Personal Income Is Lower Than the National Average in Most Tennessee
Counties
(2014 Per Capita Personal Income in Current Dollars)
Tennessee: $40,457
United States: $46,049
Less than $27,000
$27,000 to $33,250
$33,251 to $40,450
$40,451 to $46,048
Greater than $46,048
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
24
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2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
The Tennessee Economy: Short-Term Outlook
2.2.
|
CHAPTER 2
The Current Economic Environment, continued
grew by an additional 6.2 percent in 2015. On a
fiscal year basis, nominal taxable sales grew by 6.1
percent in FY 2015. For a second consecutive year
taxable sales growth was strongest in the hotels
and motels sector, expanding 12.1 percent in 2015.
Light vehicle sales also showed very strong growth,
as taxable sales from auto dealers grew by 11.3
percent in 2015. This is likely a continuation of
consumer efforts to satisfy the pent-up demand for
automobiles since the end of the Great Recession.
Lower gasoline prices have also sparked resurgence
in light truck sales. In the U.S., light truck sales
reached 9.84 million in 2015, which was the first
time in ten years that light truck sales surpassed 9.0
million units.
Building permits (authorizing construction of
new privately-owned housing units) in the U.S.
and Tennessee continue to grow. For the U.S.,
building permits have now grown for five straight
years (2010 through 2014,) while Tennessee has
experienced three consecutive years of growth
(2012 through 2014). However, permitting activity
is still well below the pre-recession peaks for both
Tennessee and the nation (see Figure 2.7).
Figure 2.7: Building Permits Are Still Well Below the Pre-Recession Peaks of 2005
50,000
2,100,000
45,000
1,900,000
1,700,000
35,000
1,500,000
30,000
1,300,000
25,000
1,100,000
20,000
900,000
15,000
700,000
U.S. Total Permits
Tennessee Total Permits
40,000
500,000
10,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
TN
U.S.
Source: Census Bureau Building Permits Survey Data, U.S. Census Bureau.
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
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25
CHAPTER 2
2.3.
|
The Tennessee Economy: Short-Term Outlook
Fiscal Update
Federal Government
The federal budget deficit is expected to increase
from $438.9 billion in 2015 to $500.5 billion in
2016 (see Figure 2.8). This will be the first time
since 2011 that the deficit has grown. Despite this
increase, the federal deficit is still less than half of
its 2011 counterpart. The increased deficit is due
to slightly higher government spending, largely
attributable to increased Medicare and to a larger
extent Medicaid spending. A bipartisan budget
accord reached before the first of the year will lead
to a larger deficit but reduce the likelihood of a
crippling federal government shutdown.
In 2015 the national debt was $18.5 trillion,
which is projected to grow to $19.4 trillion in 2016.
The amount of debt held by the public peaked at
75.2 percent of GDP in 2014, fell slightly to 74.4
percent of GDP in 2015, and is expected to rise
to 74.8 percent in 2016. By comparison, this figure
was only 54.4 percent in 2009 and closer to 35.0
percent in 2007. Growing national debt may hinder
long-term economic growth by crowding out
private sector investment and leaves policymakers
with restricted options if faced with an unexpected
economic downturn.
State Finances Across the Nation
States collected a total of $912.4 billion in tax
revenues during fiscal year 2015 (July 2014 – June
2015), representing a 5.6 percent increase over
FY 2014. All major tax revenue categories grew in
FY 2015. Personal income tax revenues saw the
largest growth, expanding by 9.0 percent over FY
2014. Corporate income tax revenues advanced
6.2 percent, sales tax revenues grew by 5.4 percent,
and motor vehicle fuel tax revenues increased by
2.4 percent.1
State tax revenues grew in all regions of
the nation in FY 2015. The Far West region
experienced the strongest growth in FY 2015, with
revenues expanding by 8.9 percent, followed by
the Rocky Mountain region at 7.3 percent. Growth
1
Dadayan, Lucy & Boyd, Donald J. (November 2015). “Another Strong Tax
Quarter for the States, But Less Promising Forecasts for Fiscal 2016.” The
Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government. Retrieved from http://www.
rockinst.org/pdf/government_finance/state_revenue_report/2015-11-16SRR_101.pdf.
Figure 2.8: The Federal Deficit Will Increase Slightly in 2016
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Receipts
*2016, 2017, and 2018 are projections
Source: IHS Global Insights Inc.
26
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2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2011
2012
Deficit
2013
2014
Outlays
2015 2016* 2017* 2018*
The Tennessee Economy: Short-Term Outlook
2.3.
|
CHAPTER 2
Fiscal Update, continued
in the Far West region was primarily driven by
large corporate and personal income tax gains
in California which outweighed massive revenue
losses in Alaska (73.4 percent decline in total tax
revenues compared to FY2014) which relies heavily
on oil and gas severance taxes. (Alaska is now
discussing implementation of an income tax to
help replace the revenue decline from oil and gas
taxes.) Total tax revenue growth was the slowest in
the Great Lakes region at 2.9 percent.
Preliminary data on the third quarter of 2015
peg aggregate state tax revenue growth at 4.3
percent over the third quarter of 2014. This is well
below the growth rates registered during the first
half of 2015 (5.3 percent in the first quarter and
6.8 percent in the second quarter.) Personal income
tax revenues grew by 6.1 percent in the third
quarter and sales tax revenues grew by 3.4 percent,
while corporate income tax revenues contracted
1.3 percent.
The Southeastern States and Tennessee
Total revenue collections in the southeastern
states (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia,
Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina,
South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia and West
Virginia) grew by 5.0 percent in FY 2015. This was
slightly slower than the 5.6 percent rate of growth
registered for all states. Tax revenue growth in the
southeast was driven by an 8.3 percent increase in
corporate income tax revenues and a 7.6 percent
increase in personal income tax collections. Among
the southeast states, Virginia led the way with an
8.5 percent increase in total tax revenues, followed
by Mississippi at 7.6 percent. Louisiana saw the
slowest rate of growth at 1.4 percent (see Figure
2.9). In Tennessee, total tax collections grew by 6.5
percent for the fiscal year.2 This was faster than
both the national average of 5.6 percent and the
southeast average of 5.0 percent. Among the 12
southeastern states, only Virginia, Mississippi, and
Ibid.
2
Figure 2.9: Tennessee Has Fourth Highest Growth Rate in Total Tax Revenues Among
Southeastern States, Fiscal Year 2015 (July 2014–June 2015)
9.0%
8.5%
8.0%
7.6%
7.0%
6.6%
6.5%
6.2%
6.0%
5.6%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
4.1%
3.1%
3.0%
2.8%
2.7%
2.0%
1.4%
1.0%
Louisiana
Florida
West Virginia
Arkansas
South Carolina
Kentucky
Alabama
Southeast
United States
Georgia
Tennessee
North Carolina
Mississippi
Virginia
0.0%
Source: The Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government.
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
|
27
CHAPTER 2
2.3.
|
The Tennessee Economy: Short-Term Outlook
Fiscal Update, continued
North Carolina enjoyed faster tax revenue growth
than Tennessee
As of December 2015, Tennessee Department
of Revenue tax collections have totaled $5,113.5
million for the fiscal year-to-date (August 2015 –
December 2015), representing a $377.4 million or
8.0 percent increase over last fiscal year-to-date.
2.4.
Tennessee tax revenue growth has largely been
driven by sales tax revenues which are up $222.9
million or 7.1 percent, and franchise and excise
tax revenues (corporate income taxes) which
have expanded by $146.3 million or 23.8 percent
compared to last fiscal year-to-date.
Short-Term Outlook
The short-term economic outlook for Tennessee
calls for solid growth over the next three years.
Output and personal income should continue to
post healthy gains. Nonfarm employment growth
in Tennessee will mimic national employment
growth throughout the short-term forecast
horizon, while state manufacturing employment
will see modest gains. Tennessee’s unemployment
rate will continue to trend downwards but remain
above the national unemployment rate throughout
the short-term forecast window.
Table 2.1 provides a summary of the shortterm economic outlook for Tennessee and the
nation. Nonfarm employment in Tennessee is
projected to increase by 1.7 percent in 2016 and
1.3 percent in 2017. Nonfarm jobs are expected to
grow at a similar pace for the nation. Most broad
sectors of the Tennessee economy are projected
to see employment growth in 2016 and 2017.
In 2016, nonfarm job growth will be driven by
a 2.8 percent expansion in the professional and
business services sector and a 2.6 percent increase
in the natural resources, mining, and construction
sector’s workforce. Both the information and other
services sectors will experience job losses in 2016.
The information sector will face a 2.0 percent
employment contraction, and employment in the
other services sector will fall by 1.1 percent.
Manufacturing employment growth in
Tennessee is expected to taper off in 2016. After
increasing by 1.9 percent in 2015, manufacturing
jobs will advance by 0.7 percent in both 2016
and 2017. As this report goes to press, there are
signs of a deepening slowdown in the nation’s
manufacturing sector that could ripple across the
state. It is too early to tell whether this recent
slowdown is a sign of a fundamental shift in
prospects for the manufacturing sector or simply a
short-term shock.
Figure 2.10 shows that while manufacturing
employment has grown since the Great Recession,
employments levels are still well below those prior
to the recession. Simultaneously, manufacturing
output, as shown in Figure 2.11, has been trending
upwards indicating that manufacturing productivity
(output per worker) is on the rise. The number
of manufacturing jobs in Tennessee will likely
remain below pre-recession levels and revert to
contraction before the end of the decade.
Employment in durable goods manufacturing
is projected to grow by 1.5 percent in both 2016
and 2017. Within durable goods manufacturing,
the transportation equipment sector will see
the strongest employment gains, growing
by 3.7 percent in 2016 and in 2017. Wood
products manufacturing will also see job gains
of 1.9 percent in 2016 and 1.6 percent in 2017.
Conversely, employment in nonmetallic minerals
manufacturing will contract in both 2016 and 2017,
and computers and electronics, and miscellaneous
durable goods manufacturing will face job losses in
2017.
Nondurable goods manufacturing will face job
losses of 0.7 percent in 2016 and 0.8 percent in
2017. Among the broad sectors of nondurable
goods manufacturing only food manufacturing and
plastics and rubber manufacturing will avoid job
losses over the next two years while the remaining
continued on page 31
28
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2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
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The Tennessee Economy: Short-Term Outlook
2.4.
CHAPTER 2
Short-Term Outlook, continued
Table 2.1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted
Table 2.1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted
History
2015:3
2015:4
Forecast Data
2016:1
2016:2
2016:3
2016:4
2017:1
Annual
2017:2
2017:3
2017:4
2018:1
2014
2015
2016
2017
US GDP (Bil2009$) SAAR……………………………………………...........................
16414.0 16462.5 16586.4 16708.4 16844.5 16983.1 17096.3 17225.3 17338.9 17437.6 17567.0 15961.7 16346.8 16780.6 17274.5
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………………………………………..................
1.98
1.19
3.04
2.98
3.30
3.33
2.69
3.05
2.66
2.30
3.00
2.43
2.41
2.65
2.94
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………………………
2.15
1.93
2.53
2.29
2.62
3.16
3.07
3.09
2.94
2.68
2.75
2.43
2.41
2.65
2.94
US GDP (Bil$) SAAR…………………………………………….......................................
18060.2 18181.2 18391.4 18614.9 18860.4 19106.9 19318.4 19560.9 19794.5 20000.1 20259.9 17348.1 17951.1 18743.4 19668.4
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………………………………………..................
3.31
2.71
4.70
4.95
5.38
5.33
4.50
5.12
4.86
4.22
5.30
4.11
3.48
4.41
4.94
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………………………
3.07
3.21
4.20
3.91
4.43
5.09
5.04
5.08
4.95
4.67
4.87
4.11
3.48
4.41
4.94
TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL2009$) SAAR……..................................
254215 257680 260384 262090 263075 264591 266717 268147 269586 271585 273120
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………………………………………..................
2.55
5.56
4.26
2.65
1.51
2.33
3.25
2.16
2.16
3.00
2.28
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………………………
4.58
4.56
4.40
3.75
3.48
2.68
2.43
2.31
2.48
2.64
2.40
US PERSONAL INCOME (BIL2009$) SAAR………….............................
14095 14224
14360 14435
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………………………………………..................
3.76
3.73
3.88
2.10
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………………………
4.41
3.98
3.61
3.36
14500
1.80
2.87
14604
2.90
2.67
14759
4.33
2.78
14879
3.28
3.07
14976
2.65
3.29
15100
3.35
3.40
15230
3.49
3.19
TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL$) SAAR……………………..........................
278958 282614 285656 288832 292132 295513 298903 302294 305795 309386 312604
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………………………………………..................
3.84
5.35
4.37
4.52
4.65
4.71
4.67
4.62
4.71
4.78
4.22
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………………………
4.85
4.89
5.27
4.52
4.72
4.56
4.64
4.66
4.68
4.69
4.58
242848 253482 262535 269009
2.28
4.38
3.57
2.47
2.28
4.38
3.57
2.47
13468
2.98
2.98
14036
4.22
4.22
14475
3.12
3.12
14929
3.14
3.14
264965 277316 290533 304095
3.74
4.66
4.77
4.67
3.74
4.66
4.77
4.67
US PERSONAL INCOME (BIL$) SAAR……………………..........................
15468 15614
15750 15894
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………………………………………..................
5.09
3.84
3.52
3.70
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………………………
4.69
4.40
4.44
4.04
16073
4.59
3.91
16276
5.14
4.24
16502
5.67
4.77
16722
5.45
5.21
16933
5.14
5.35
17145
5.10
5.34
17390
5.84
5.38
14694
4.45
4.45
15360
4.53
4.53
15998
4.16
4.16
16825
5.17
5.17
TN NONFARM JOBS (THOUS)……………………………………..........................
2874.9 2900.1 2906.8 2914.1
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………………………………………..................
1.97
3.57
0.92
1.01
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………………………
1.79
2.00
2.10
1.85
2921.4
1.01
1.62
2929.6
1.13
1.02
2940.2
1.45
1.15
2950.6
1.42
1.25
2961.5
1.49
1.37
2972.7
1.53
1.47
2982.4
1.30
1.43
2816.1
2.08
2.08
2870.7
1.94
1.94
2918.0
1.65
1.65
2956.2
1.31
1.31
US NONFARM JOBS (MIL)……………………………………………..........................
142.2
142.9
143.6
144.1
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………………………………………..................
1.77
1.86
1.87
1.45
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………………………
2.05
1.90
1.81
1.74
144.6
1.39
1.64
145.1
1.32
1.51
145.6
1.42
1.39
145.9
1.01
1.28
146.4
1.20
1.24
146.8
1.28
1.23
147.2
1.14
1.16
139.0
1.93
1.93
141.9
2.10
2.10
144.3
1.67
1.67
146.2
1.29
1.29
TN MFG JOBS (THOUS)……………………………………………………...................
331.5
332.7
333.0
333.4
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………………………………………..................
1.00
1.53
0.37
0.41
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………………………
1.74
1.17
0.60
0.78
334.0
0.71
0.75
334.7
0.85
0.58
335.3
0.73
0.67
335.8
0.68
0.74
336.4
0.62
0.72
337.0
0.80
0.71
337.6
0.70
0.70
325.2
2.13
2.13
331.5
1.93
1.93
333.7
0.68
0.68
336.1
0.71
0.71
US MFG JOBS (MIL)…………………………………………………….............................
12.3
12.3
12.3
12.3
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………………………………………..................
-0.05
-0.41
-0.51
-0.40
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………………………
1.04
0.35
-0.17
-0.34
12.3
0.10
-0.31
12.4
1.94
0.28
12.4
1.36
0.74
12.4
-0.02
0.84
12.4
0.80
1.02
12.5
1.11
0.81
12.5
0.71
0.65
12.2
1.41
1.41
12.3
1.12
1.12
12.3
-0.14
-0.14
12.4
0.85
0.85
TN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)…………………………….............................
5.7
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
6.6
5.9
5.5
5.4
US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)………………………………...........................
5.2
5.0
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
6.2
5.3
4.9
4.9
CHAINED PRICE INDEX, GDP
(2009=100.0)……………...........................………..........………..........………..........
110.0
110.4
110.9
111.4
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………………………………………..................
1.32
1.44
1.61
1.92
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………………………
0.91
1.25
1.62
1.57
112.0
2.02
1.75
112.5
1.93
1.87
113.0
1.76
1.91
113.6
2.00
1.93
114.2
2.14
1.96
114.7
1.88
1.95
115.3
2.23
2.06
108.7
1.64
1.64
109.8
1.04
1.04
111.7
1.70
1.70
113.9
1.94
1.94
US PERS CONSUMP DEFL (2009=100.0)……………..................................
109.7
109.8
109.7
110.1
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………………………………………..................
1.28
0.11
-0.34
1.57
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………………………
0.27
0.41
0.81
0.65
110.9
2.75
1.01
111.5
2.18
1.53
111.8
1.28
1.94
112.4
2.10
2.08
113.1
2.43
2.00
113.5
1.69
1.87
114.2
2.28
2.12
109.1
1.43
1.43
109.4
0.29
0.29
110.5
1.00
1.00
112.7
1.97
1.97
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX,
ALL-URBAN (82-84=1.000)…………………………….........................................
2.379
2.381
2.374
2.386
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………………………………………..................
1.58
0.33
-1.09
1.95
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………………………
0.14
0.43
0.94
0.68
2.409
4.03
1.28
2.427
2.94
1.94
2.435
1.44
2.58
2.452
2.69
2.77
2.471
3.24
2.57
2.483
1.98
2.33
2.501
2.95
2.71
2.367
1.61
1.61
2.370
0.13
0.13
2.399
1.21
1.21
2.460
2.56
2.56
3.8
4.0
4.3
4.5
4.8
5.0
5.3
5.5
3.3
3.3
3.9
4.9
FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (% per annum)……………………………....................
0.137
0.152
0.483
0.787
BANK PRIME INTEREST RATE (%)………………………………......................
3.3
3.3
3.5
1.037
1.290
1.533
1.787
2.037
2.290
2.533
0.089
0.131
0.899
1.912
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.9
5.0
4.2
3.9
4.4
4.7
TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL2009$)……………………………………….................
26228 26353
26392 26580
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………………………………………..................
9.46
1.91
0.59
2.88
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………………………
7.21
5.48
7.62
3.66
26635
0.83
1.55
26708
1.10
1.35
26795
1.31
1.53
26878
1.24
1.12
26954
1.14
1.20
27127
2.59
1.57
27230
1.52
1.62
97036 102746 106315 107755
3.41
5.88
3.47
1.35
3.41
5.88
3.47
1.35
TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL$)…………………………………………….......................
28781 28903
28953 29292
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………………………………………..................
10.84
1.70
0.70
4.76
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………………………
7.49
5.82
8.52
4.43
29577
3.95
2.77
29829
3.45
3.20
30028
2.70
3.71
30301
3.67
3.44
30575
3.67
3.37
30903
4.37
3.60
31167
3.45
3.79
105877 112414 117652 121807
4.89
6.17
4.66
3.53
4.89
6.17
4.66
3.53
TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE, NONFARM
(2009$)…………….......................………..............………..............………..............
43269 43666
43973 44087
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………………………………………..................
-0.11
3.72
2.85
1.04
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………………………
3.46
3.10
3.64
1.86
44059
-0.26
1.82
44111
0.48
1.02
44274
1.48
0.68
44313
0.35
0.51
44347
0.30
0.65
44461
1.04
0.79
44544
0.75
0.61
41961
1.18
1.18
43161
2.86
2.86
44058
2.08
2.08
44349
0.66
0.66
TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE, NONFARM ($)……………….............................
47481 47891
48241 48586
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………………………………………..................
1.14
3.50
2.96
2.89
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………………………
3.73
3.44
4.51
2.62
48925
2.82
3.04
49266
2.82
2.87
49616
2.87
2.85
49956
2.77
2.82
50303
2.81
2.82
50649
2.78
2.81
50984
2.67
2.76
45782
2.62
2.62
47219
3.14
3.14
48755
3.25
3.25
50131
2.82
2.82
30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE (%)………………………………............
4.0
3.9
4.2
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
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CHAPTER 2
2.4.
|
The Tennessee Economy: Short-Term Outlook
Short-Term Outlook, continued
Figure 2.10: Despite Recent Growth, U.S. and Tennessee Manufacturing Employment Are Well
Below Pre-Recession Levels From 2008
15.0
450.0
14.0
400.0
13.0
350.0
12.0
300.0
11.0
250.0
10.0
TN
U.S.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and CBER-UT.
Figure 2.11: U.S. and Tennessee Manufacturing Output See Positive Growth
2,000,000
50,000
45,000
1,800,000
1,700,000
40,000
1,600,000
1,500,000
35,000
1,400,000
1,300,000
30,000
1,200,000
1,100,000
25,000
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
30
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
1,000,000
TN
U.S.
U.S. Output (millions of 2009 dollars)
TN Output (millions of 2009 dollars)
1,900,000
The Tennessee Economy: Short-Term Outlook
2.4.
|
CHAPTER 2
Short-Term Outlook, continued
six broad sectors will experience contractions.
Employment in plastics and rubber manufacturing
will increase by 1.6 percent in 2016 and 1.5 percent
in 2017, while food manufacturing employment
will grow by 0.1 percent in both 2016 and 2017.
By contrast, miscellaneous nondurable goods
manufacturing will face the steepest job cuts,
shrinking by 3.7 percent in 2016 and 5.6 percent
in 2017. The textile mills and textile products
manufacturing sector will also face significant jobs
losses over the next two years, shrinking by 4.1
percent in 2016 and 5.0 percent in 2017.
Tennessee’s unemployment rate is projected to
remain at 5.6 percent for the first two quarter of
2016 and then fall to 5.5 percent during the second
half of the year. In 2017, the state unemployment
rate will drift slightly downward and is projected
to average 5.4 percent for the year. The national
unemployment rate will also continue its downward
trend and as a result the state unemployment rate
will remain above the national rate throughout the
short-term forecast horizon (see Figure 2.12).
In 2016, Tennessee’s civilian labor force will
effectively remain unchanged, falling by a mere 0.1
percent. This slight drop in the civilian labor force
will occur because of a 6.2 percent reduction in
the number of unemployment people combined
with a relatively small 0.3 percentage increase in
employed people. As a result there will be roughly
3,000 fewer Tennesseans in the labor force in 2016
than there were in 2015. In 2017, the civilian labor
force will grow by 0.6 percent as the number of
unemployed people falls by 1.7 percent and the
number of employed people grows by 0.8 percent.
However, Tennessee’s labor force participation
rate is projected to fall over the next two years,
declining from 57.7 percent in 2015 to 57.0 percent
in 2016 and 56.7 percent in 2017. By comparison,
the national labor force participation rate is
expected to hover between 61.6 percent and 61.8
percent over the next two years.
Figure 2.12: Tennessee’s Unemployment Rate Is Projected to Stay Above the National Rate
Through 2018
12
10
Rate (%)
8
6
4
2
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
TN
U.S.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insights Inc., and CBER-UT.
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
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CHAPTER 2
2.4.
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The Tennessee Economy: Short-Term Outlook
Short-Term Outlook, continued
Nominal personal income in Tennessee is
forecasted to grow by 4.8 percent in 2016 followed
by 4.7 percent growth in 2017. All components of
personal income in Tennessee will enjoy healthy
growth over the next two years. In 2016 wage and
salary income will increase by the largest amount,
expanding by 5.1 percent, followed by 4.3 percent
growth in 2017. Proprietors’ income will increase
by 5.0 percent in 2016 and 4.8 percent in 2017,
while rent, interest, and dividend income will grow
by 4.4 percent in 2016 and 5.2 percent in 2017.
Transfer payments are also projected to increase
by 3.7 percent in 2016 and 4.1 percent in 2017. Per
capita personal income will grow by 3.7 percent in
2016 and 3.6 percent in 2017. By 2017, per capita
income in Tennessee will equal $44,695, though
this will equate to only 86.9 percent of the national
average. This has become a growing concern as
per capita personal income in Tennessee was equal
to 90.7 percent of the national average in 2004 but
has fallen relative to the U.S. average ever since
(see Figure 2.13). The state’s education initiatives,
including Tennessee Promise and the Drive to
55 should ultimately help turn this trend around.
On a fiscal year basis, nominal personal income is
projected to grow by 4.9 percent in FY 2016 and
4.7 percent in FY 2017.
In Tennessee, nominal taxable sales are expected
to increase by 4.7 percent in 2016 and 3.5 percent
in 2017. All categories of taxable sales will see
growth over the next two years. In 2016, taxable
sales on miscellaneous durable and nondurable
goods, auto dealer sales, other retail and service
sales, and purchases from manufacturers will all
increase by more than 5.0 percent. Taxable sales
at hotels and motels will also see robust growth
of 4.6 percent. In 2017, hotels and motels will
continue to enjoy strong growth as taxable sales are
projected to grow by an additional 6.2 percent. On
a fiscal year basis, nominal taxable sales will rise by
6.5 percent in FY 2016 and 3.3 percent in FY 2017.
Figure 2.13: Per Capita Personal Income in Tennessee Has Fallen Relative to the National
Average
TN Per Capita Income Relative to U.S. Average (%)
92.0
91.0
90.0
89.0
88.0
87.0
86.0
85.0
84.0
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Global Insights Inc., CBER-UT.
32
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2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
The Tennessee Economy: Short-Term Outlook
2.4.
•
•
•
•
2.5.
|
CHAPTER 2
Tennessee Forecast at a Glance
In Tennessee, inflation-adjusted gross
domestic product is projected to increase by
2.3 percent in 2016 and 2.2 percent in 2017,
slightly below the 2.4 percent growth rate
for 2015.
Nonfarm jobs will grow by 1.9 percent
in 2016 and 1.7 percent in 2017, as
employment in the professional and
business services, leisure and hospitality, and
natural resources, mining, and construction
sectors see healthy employment gains.
Manufacturing employment will expand by
0.7 percent in 2016 and 2017.
The state unemployment rate is projected to
fall to 5.5 percent in 2016 and 5.4 percent in
2017. This would mark the first time since
2007 that the annual unemployment rate
dropped below 6.0 percent.
•
•
•
Nominal personal income will grow by 4.8
percent in 2016 and 4.7 percent in 2017.
Nominal taxable sales will expand 4.7
percent in 2016 and 3.5 percent in 2017.
On a fiscal year basis, nominal personal
income will increase by 4.9 percent in FY
2016 and 4.7 percent in FY 2017. Nominal
taxable sales will grow 6.5 percent in FY
2016 and 3.3 percent in FY 2017.
Tennessee’s Agricultural and Forest Industries and Rural Economy
Introduction
The impacts on Tennessee’s economy from
agriculture and forestry are far ranging, from
the farm and forest to food, fiber, and forest
products manufacturing. The state’s diverse
topography for producing food, fiber, and forestry
products is reflected in its agri-forestry industrial
complex. This section of the report focuses on
economic indicators for three main areas related
to the agri-forestry industrial complex1: a) primary
agriculture and forestry, which includes farming
and first-stage forestry; b) secondary agriculture
and forestry, which includes manufacturing and
processing facilities; and c) the rural communities
that are so important to sustaining agri-forestry
within the state. Indicators of progress toward
recommendations made in the The Governor’s Rural
Challenge are also discussed.
1
Defined as the primary industries typically associated with agriculture and forest
operations such as growing crops, the breeding and feeding of livestock, and
the management and logging of trees. Also included in the industrial complex
were input supplying industries and value-added subsectors, which included
food and beverage manufacturing, apparel and textiles, and forestry products
manufacturing.
a. Agriculture and Primary Forestry
a.1. Agricultural Land Use and Farm Size
In 2014, 10.9 million acres in Tennessee were
designated as farming operations (USDA/NASS
2015a), constituting over 40 percent of the state’s
nearly 27 million acres of land area. Of the land in
farms, 5.3 million acres were in cropland and 2.9
million acres were in pasture (USDA/NASS 2012).
Tennessee’s farming industry is characterized by
two types of farming operations: larger farms that
rely primarily on farm income, and small farms,
many of which are operated by part-time farmers.
Of Tennessee’s 67,300 farming operations, average
farm size in 2014 was 162 acres, which is smaller
than the average 218 acres of its neighboring
states (USDA/NASS 2015a). Tennessee ranks
only second to Kentucky among its neighbors in
number of farms.
a.2. Tennessee’s Crops and Livestock
The 2014 value of cash farm receipts from
crops and livestock was over $4.2 billion, with $1.8
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
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CHAPTER 2
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The Tennessee Economy: Short-Term Outlook
2.5. Tennessee’s Agricultural and Forest Industries and Rural Economy, continued
billion from animals and $2.4 billion from crops
U.S. markets for these products. U.S. soybean
(Table 2.2). Overall, Tennessee ranks 31st in the
prices peaked in 2012/2013 at $14.40/bushel.
U.S.
in
cash
farm
receipts.
The
top
ten
Tennessee
strengthening
of domestic
crushwas
and export
smallest in half a century (USDA/NASS 2015b; USDA/ERS The
2015e).
The recent decline
in inventory
agricultural
products
inconsecutive
value of cash
farmyears
receipts
markets helped
increase
the disappearance
largely driven
by three
drought
in the Southern
Plains and
the drought
of 2012 that of
negatively
and
oilseed
production.
Cattlesoybeans
prices set in
a record
in 2014.
However,
latter
are
listed in impacted
Table 2.2,grain
along
with
the state’s
ranking
2014/15
compared
withthe
2013/2014
half
of 2015
saw Tennessee
cattle
prices
decline
percent. The value
of U.S.
Tennessee
broiler rose steadily
for
each
product.
In 2014, the
largest
value
of 35 to 40(USDA/ERS
2014).
cattle prices
production
rose from
million
in 2005
to over $598 million
by 2014
(USDA/NASS
2015d).
broiler
cash
farm receipts
was$431
derived
from
soybeans,
since 2010,
with
record retail
beef U.S.
prices
in 2014.
prices
rose
from
2010
through
2014.
While
U.S.
broiler
production
held
steady,
broiler
exports
grew
followed by cattle and calves. These were followed
The U.S. cattle herd inventory declined steadily
through 2014 (USDA/ERS 2015e). In 2014 the world’s largest poultry breeder discovered a fertility
in magnitude by broilers, corn, cotton, wheat, dairy, between 2001 and 2014, and was 88.5 million in
problem in a key rooster breed. The fertility issue resulted in fewer chicks hatching, which reduced
hay,
tobacco,inand
vegetables
and melons.
The top poultry
2014, prices,
the smallest
halfbeen
a century
(USDA/NASS
production
2014.
Poultry exports,
and consequently
in 2015inhave
negatively
ten
commodities
in the
state accounted
for about
2015b;
USDA/ERS
The recent decline in
impacted
by Highly
Pathogenic
Avian Influenza
(HPAI). The
broiler
industry was2015e).
not significantly
86.7
percent
of
2014
cash
farm
receipts.
Tennessee
inventory
was
largely
driven
by three
consecutive
impacted by HPAI, but its occurrence did result in a decline in exports. U.S. corn prices began
declining,
ranks
the than
top ten
states in
of cash
farm
droughtin years
in the(USDA/ERS
Southern 2015d).
Plains and
the
fromin
more
$6/bushel
in value
2013/2014
to less
than $4/bushel
2014/2015
Higher
production
of
corn
relative
to
demands
for
fuel
and
feed
uses
and
exports
pushed
prices
downward
receipts from tobacco and cotton.
drought of 2012 that negatively impacted grain
during
period.
production
in 2013/2014
from 2012/2013
Table this
2.2 time
shows
cash U.S.
farmcotton
receipts
over thewas downand
oilseed production.
Cattle(USDA/NASS
prices set a record
2015c);
however,
total
disappearance
decreased
sharply
in
that
time
period,
primarily
past five years. Cash farm receipts from soybeans,
in 2014. However, the latterdue
halftoofdecreased
2015 saw
exports.
Between
2013/2014
and
2014/2015,
average
U.S.
cotton
farm
price
declined
from
82.5
cents
Tennessee cattle prices decline 35 to 40
percent.
cattle and calves, corn, wheat, and hay each
per pound to 64.6 cents per pound (USDA/ERS 2015a).
exhibited over 10 percent average annual growth
The value of Tennessee broiler production rose
from Exports
2010 toof2014.
Only cotton
cash
farm
$431
million
in 2005
to with
over the
$598 million
agricultural
products
from
Tennessee werefrom
valued
at $1.7
billion
in 2014,
receipts
experienced
an
overall
decline
during
by
2014
(USDA/NASS
2015d).
U.S.
broiler prices
majority of this coming from crops. Over 27 percent of the 2014 export value came from soybeans,
followed
by
cotton
at
8.4
percent,
wheat
at
just
under
8
percent,
soybean
meal
at
6.3
percent,
and
corn
this time period. The market for Tennessee crops
rose from 2010 through 2014. While U.S. broiler
at
5.4
percent.
In
2014,
major
export
destinations
by
product
included
soybeans
–
China,
Mexico,
and livestock is strongly impacted by trends in
production held steady, broiler exports grew
Indonesia, Japan, and Taiwan; cotton – China, Turkey, Mexico, Vietnam, Indonesia; wheat-Japan,
Mexico, Brazil, Nigeria, and the Philippines; and corn – Japan, Mexico, South Korea, Columbia, and
Egypt (USDA/FAS 2015).
Table 2.2: Tennessee Cash Farm Receipts and Share of Commodity Exports, 2010–2014
Table 1. Tennessee Cash Farm Receipts and Share of Commodity Exports, 2010-2014
All Commodities
Crops
Animals & Animal Products
Top 10 in 2014
Soybeans
Cattle & Calves
Broilers
Corn
Cotton
Wheat
Dairy Prod, Milk
Hay
Tobacco
Vegetables & Melons a
a
2010
3,084
1,746
1,337
Value of Cash Receipts
(Million $)
2011
2012
3,290
3,743
1,881
2,225
1,409
1,518
499
545
476
272
332
52
151
82
99
69
471
588
454
418
311
104
175
91
96
48
575
746
436
532
357
147
157
102
111
41
Ranking and shares of exports are for vegetables only.
Ranking
and shares
of exports
are forand
vegetables
only. 2015f)
(Sources:
USDA/ERS
2015c
USDA/ERS
Sources: USDA/ERS 2015c and USDA/ERS 2015f.
a
2
34
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Avg.
Annual
Growth
Ranking
in U.S.
(2010-2014)
2014
Share of
Commodity
Exports
2014
2013
4,091
2,541
1,550
2014
4,237
2,418
1,820
8.3%
8.8%
8.2%
31
26
33
85.3%
14.7%
815
626
576
573
284
227
163
119
111
54
834
825
598
454
239
215
192
126
115
76
15.2%
12.6%
6.9%
17.0%
-7.0%
47.2%
6.8%
11.5%
4.1%
6.9%
15
23
16
20
10
18
30
n/a
3
24
27.2%
4.20%
4.3%
5.4%
8.4%
8.0%
1.6%
n/a
4.2%
0.8%
The Tennessee Economy: Short-Term Outlook
|
CHAPTER 2
2.5. Tennessee’s Agricultural and Forest Industries and Rural Economy, continued
through 2014 (USDA/ERS 2015e). In 2014 the
world’s largest poultry breeder discovered a fertility
problem in a key rooster breed. The fertility
issue resulted in fewer chicks hatching, which
reduced production in 2014. Poultry exports, and
consequently poultry prices, in 2015 have been
negatively impacted by Highly Pathogenic Avian
Influenza (HPAI). The broiler industry was not
significantly impacted by HPAI, but its occurrence
did result in a decline in exports. U.S. corn prices
began declining, from more than $6/bushel in
2013/2014 to less than $4/bushel in 2014/2015
(USDA/ERS 2015d). Higher production of
corn relative to demands for fuel and feed uses
and exports pushed prices downward during
this time period. U.S. cotton production was
down in 2013/2014 from 2012/2013 (USDA/
NASS 2015c); however, total disappearance
decreased sharply in that time period, primarily
due to decreased exports. Between 2013/2014 and
2014/2015, average U.S. cotton farm price declined
from 82.5 cents per pound to 64.6 cents per pound
(USDA/ERS 2015a).
Exports of agricultural products from
Tennessee were valued at $1.7 billion in 2014,
with the majority of this coming from crops.
Over 27 percent of the 2014 export value came
from soybeans, followed by cotton at 8.4 percent,
wheat at just under 8 percent, soybean meal at
6.3 percent, and corn at 5.4 percent. In 2014,
major export destinations by product included
soybeans – China, Mexico, Indonesia, Japan, and
Taiwan; cotton – China, Turkey, Mexico, Vietnam,
Indonesia; wheat-Japan, Mexico, Brazil, Nigeria,
and the Philippines; and corn – Japan, Mexico,
South Korea, Columbia, and Egypt (USDA/FAS
2015).
a.3. Commodity Market Trends and Outlook,
Infrastructure, Agritourism and Direct Marketing
Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy Outlook
Meat protein and dairy product prices will be
driven by export markets. Many industry experts
attribute most of the 2015 declines in exports
to the significant increase in the dollar’s value
relative to other currencies. Meat proteins and
dairy products will continue to find difficulty
being absorbed in the world market the first
half of 2016. Beef production will continue to
increase, resulting in lower beef and cattle prices
over the next several years. The pork industry
will likely have strong 2016 production numbers,
unless the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea (PED)
becomes an issue. Poultry production is likely to
continue increasing, as well. Increased production
will inherently result in increased exports, but
prices for the three major meat proteins will likely
decline from 2015 levels. U.S. dairy production
will continue to increase in the first half of 2016,
resulting in lower prices for the year. The export
market and ability to move nonfat dry milk and
whey will be critical factors for dairy markets in
2016.
Incentives provided to producers through the
Tennessee Agricultural Enhancement Program
(TAEP) are targeted at increasing the quality and
number of beef heifers statewide. Bringing quality
bred heifers into production has represented
a significant challenge to profitability of the
state’s beef cattle industry. A private-public
partnership among the Tennessee Department of
Agriculture, the University of Tennessee Institute
of Agriculture and the Tennessee Farmer’s
Cooperative seeks to develop best management
practices for bred heifers and to encourage their
adoption by producers.
Crops Outlook. In 2015, two important issues
dominated Tennessee row-crop management and
marketing. The Agricultural Act of 2014 (the
Farm Bill) provided a new direction for domestic
farm policy. For Title I (“Commodities”), Direct
Payments, Counter-Cyclical Payments, and Average
Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) programs were
repealed and replaced with two new programs:
Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price
Loss Coverage (PLC). Of the 2.06[2] million base
2
The Agricultural Act of 2014 converted 744,000 cotton base acres in
Tennessee, into generic base acres. Generic base acres are not included in this
estimate as a unique set of commodity program payment rules apply to generic
base acres. Additionally, it should be noted that approximately 20 percent
of planted acres in Tennessee have no base and as such do not qualify for
commodity program payments.
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
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The Tennessee Economy: Short-Term Outlook
2.5. Tennessee’s Agricultural and Forest Industries and Rural Economy, continued
acres of cropland in Tennessee, 94 percent were
enrolled in ARC and 6 percent in PLC (USDA/
FSA 2015a). Additionally, the Farm Bill increased
emphasis on Title II (“Conservation”) and Title
XI (“Crop Insurance”). The second major issue
faced by row-crop producers in Tennessee was
the continued decline in commodity prices. From
their price peaks in 2012, corn, wheat, and soybean
prices dropped 52 percent, 49 percent, and 36
percent, respectively, and cotton prices fell well
below the cost of production resulting in planted
acreage decreasing to an all-time low of 155,000
acres in 2015 (USDA/ERS 2015c). A bright spot
for row-crop prices this spring was grain sorghum
(milo). As a result of beneficial price incentives
in the spring, Tennessee producers increased
grain sorghum acreage from 33,000 in 2014 to
over 120,000 acres in 2015 (USDA/FSA 2015b).
Looking toward 2016, a strong U.S. dollar and
record global supplies will continue to provide
negative price implications for Tennessee row-crop
producers. Barring a major production disruption
at home or abroad, further reductions in prices
should be anticipated. For the 2016 crop, current
Tennessee farm-gate price estimates are: wheat
– $4.30-$5.30; corn – $3.15-$4.20; grain sorghum
– $3.00-$4.10; soybeans – $8.10-$9.60; and cotton
– $0.62-$0.74.
Infrastructure. An indicator of growth in onfarm infrastructure is grain storage capacity. In
2012, Tennessee’s on-farm grain storage capacity
was 79.3 million bushels, while in 2007, it was
65.1 million bushels (USDA/NASS 2012). In
2013, a total of 17 grain and oilseed milling
firms generated payroll of $132.7 million in
Tennessee. Among the 17 firms, two were wet
corn milling and two were soybean and other
oilseed processing. In addition, six cotton ginning
companies in Tennessee paid nearly $2 million
in payroll. The demand for trucking in grain
transportation has continuously increased over
the past decade, while the modal share of rail
for total grain shipment dropped to less than 30
percent nationwide in 2011. This trend implies
36
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2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
higher demand on local roads and bridges for
the agricultural sector in Tennessee. In 2014, 181
projects in 62 counties were been approved by the
legislature. An additional 765 projects identified
by Tennessee Department of Transportation to
address growth and safety in the infrastructure
system were proposed in 2015. In addition,
The American Society of Civil Engineering
recommended expansion of the short-line freight
service in rural areas.
Since 2005, the TAEP has invested more
than $123.4 million in 41,646 farm projects
ranging from genetics and livestock equipment
to commodity storage and specialty crops. For
each dollar of TAEP investment, an estimated
additional $3.89 is generated in local economic
activity (Menard, Jensen, and English 2011).
Two program areas have helped build on-farm
investment for hay and grain storage. Cumulative
(FY06 – FY15) TAEP payments for hay storage
structures totaled $39.2 million while producer
investments totaled an additional $77.3 million. For
grain storage, cumulative TAEP payments totaled
$10.5 million, while farmer investment was $33.8
million.
Agritourism. Tennessee is uniquely positioned
for growth in agritourism, building upon a welldeveloped tourism industry within the state and
farming operations being located near or within
tourism areas. The state had 616 agritourism
operations with sales totaling over $11.9 million
Agriculture (USDA/NASS 2012). Agritourism
visitors were estimated to spend $34.4 million
statewide in 2012, and with multiplier effects, the
economic impacts from these expenditures were
estimated at over $54.2 (Jensen, Bruch, Menard,
and English 2013). The visitor expenditure
impacts represent only a portion of the economic
impacts resulting from these farms since many of
the operators also rely on other sources of farm
income. Provisions passed in 2014 to amend the
“Right to Farm Act” have expanded the definition
of agriculture to include certain entertainment
activities.
The Tennessee Economy: Short-Term Outlook
|
CHAPTER 2
2.5. Tennessee’s Agricultural and Forest Industries and Rural Economy, continued
The net farm income ratio (net farm income/
Direct Marketing. The “local foods” movement,
value of production) during 2010 to 2014 suggests
along with technical and financial assistance
about 15 to 30 percent efficiency in converting
provided by USDA, TDA, UTIA, and other
production to net farm income.[3] However,
agencies, have helped increase direct marketing
the interest expense ratios for the farming sector
by farmers. An important component of direct
reflect a low debt burden and interest payment
marketing is sales through farmers markets.
level relative to production. Times interest earned is
Tennessee has seen a rapid expansion in the
another measure of ability to cover debt payments,
number of farmers markets with the number
specifically interest payments. For all years, the
rising from 99 to 119 venues between 2013 and
values are greater than one, implying sufficient cash
2014 (USDA/AMS 2016). Current Agricultural
to meet interest payments, and in 2014 the value
a.4 Financial Indicators for Tennessee Farming Industries
Marketing Service directory listings indicate 124
was 4.69. The state’s capital consumption ratio was
farmers
markets
across
the
state.
relatively
low between
ranging in
between
Several measures can be used to indicate the financial
well-being
of farms 2010-1014,
and farm operators
0.10
and
0.20,
suggesting
only
10
to
20
percent
Tennessee. Table 2 presents financial data from 2010-2014 for the Tennessee farming sector. Net cash of
production
is per
needed
to cover
the sector’s
capital
income Indicators
was just under
$740 million
in 2014, averaging
$10,993
operation
(USDA/ERS
2015b).
a.4.farm
Financial
for Tennessee
Farming
Net cash farm income on a per acre basis was $67.87/acre.
consumption. In 2014, the state’s farming sector
Industries
had an operating expense ratio of 0.65, suggesting 65
Several measures can be used to indicate the
The net farm income ratio (net farm income/value of production) during 2010 to 2014 suggests about 15
of the value of production was used to
financial
well-being
of farms
and farmproduction
operators to netpercent
to 30 percent
efficiency
in converting
farm income.[3] However, the interest expense
cover operating expenses.
in ratios
Tennessee.
2 presents
financial
data
from
for theTable
farming
sector reflect
a low
debt
burden and interest payment level relative to production.
Thedebt
2014
estimated
market value
of land and
2010-2014
for the
Tennessee
farming
sector.
Net to cover
Times interest
earned
is another
measure
of ability
payments,
specifically
interest
buildings
on
farms
was
$39.2
billion
or around
cash
farm income
justthe
under
$740
payments.
For allwas
years,
values
aremillion
greater in
than one, implying sufficient cash to meet interest
2014,
averaging
operation
(USDA/
payments,
and$10,993
in 2014 per
the value
was 4.69.
The state’s capital
consumption
ratio was
relatively
lowratios were
USDA’s Economic
Research definitions
of farm
sector financial
used. A description
of these
can20
be percent
found at http://www.ers.usda.gov/databetween
between
only
10 to
of production is
ERS
2015b).2010-1014,
Net cash ranging
farm income
on 0.10
a perand
acre0.20, suggesting
products/farm-income-and-wealth-statistics/documentation-for-the-farm-sectorneeded
to cover the sector’s capital consumption. In 2014,
the state’s farming sector had an operating
basis
was $67.87/acre.
financial-ratios.aspx#eff.
3
expense ratio of 0.65, suggesting 65 percent of the value of production was used to cover operating
expenses.
Table
2. Indicators
of the Tennessee
Farm Sector’s
Financial
Well-Being,
2010-2014
Table
2.3: Indicators
of the Tennessee
Farm
Sector’s
Financial
Well-Being, 2010–2014
Value of
Production
Net Farm Income
Interest Expense
Market Value of Farmland,
Buildings, and Equipment
Capital Consumption
Total Expenses
Net Farm Income Ratio
Capital Consumption Ratio
Operating Expense Ratio
Interest Expense Ratio
Times Interest Earned
2010
2011
2013
2014
$4,343
2012
(Million $)
$4,370
$3,764
$5,099
$4,916
$790
$260
$37,368
$1,180
$250
$37,908
$752
$240
$38,368
$1,414
$191
$38,913
$740
$201
$39,240
$408
$3,127
$427
$3,303
$697
$3,834
$920
$4,297
0.21
0.11
0.65
0.07
4.03
0.27
0.10
0.60
0.06
5.72
$637
$3,794
Ratios
0.17
0.15
0.67
0.05
4.13
0.28
0.14
0.58
0.04
8.40
0.15
0.19
0.65
0.04
4.69
Source: USDA/ERS 2015b.
(Source: USDA/ERS 2015b)
The 2014 estimated market value of land and buildings on farms was
$39.2 billion
or around
2016 TENNESSEE
ECONOMIC
REPORT
$583,061 per farm in Tennessee. The 2014 overall value is up from the 2010 value of $37.4 billion.
Farms comprising the majority of sales have much larger land and building asset values than other
|
37
CHAPTER 2
|
The Tennessee Economy: Short-Term Outlook
2.5. Tennessee’s Agricultural and Forest Industries and Rural Economy, continued
$583,061 per farm in Tennessee. The 2014 overall
value is up from the 2010 value of $37.4 billion.
Farms comprising the majority of sales have much
larger land and building asset values than other
farms. Farms with sales of at least $1 million
had average market value of land and buildings
of more than $7.3 million per operation and
those with $500,000-$999,999 in sales had over
$3.1 million in average market value of land and
buildings per operation (USDA/NASS 2012). The
2014 average value of land and buildings among
our neighboring states was $694,897 per farm.
Tennessee’s farm structure is characterized
by many small farming operations; however, a
relatively few larger farms make up the majority of
farm sales. About 69.8 percent of all farms have
sales of less than $10,000. By contrast, 2,303 of
the state’s farms accounted for 75 percent of the
market value of agricultural products sold in 2012
(USDA/NASS 2012). Just under 42 percent of
farmers in Tennessee cite farming as their principal
occupation, highlighting the importance of other
sources of rural income to economic sustainability
of the agricultural sector.
a.5. Primary Forestry in Tennessee
In 2013, among the state’s 143 sawmill
establishments, nearly 2,100 workers were
employed with a payroll of close to $61.0 million
(US Census Bureau 2013). Logging establishment
numbers totaled 135 for the same time period,
employing 728 workers with a payroll of close
to $20.0 million. From 2009 through 2013,
the average annual growth in the numbers of
employees, payroll, and establishments for sawmills
(NAICS 321113) were 3.1 percent, 7.9 percent,
and -5.1 percent, respectively. For logging (NAICS
1133) in this same timeframe, the average annual
growth values were 2.5 percent, 6.4 percent, and
-1.3 percent, respectively, for employees, payroll,
and establishments. According to the Forestry
Inventory Analysis by U.S. Forest Service (USFS
2015), an estimated 1.4 billion board feet of
sawtimber trees were removed from Tennessee
(international ¼ inch rule). Between 2009 and
38
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2013, the average annual growth in sawtimber
removals was -2.2 percent. Factors that influenced
these trends in the primary forestry sector are:
low new housing starts in 2009; slow recovery of
new housing starts; and relatively flat U.S. demand
for paper, paperboard, and pulp due to declining
newsprint, printing and writing paper consumption
(Howard and Westby 2013).
b. Food, Fiber, and Forestry Manufacturing in
Tennessee
b.1. Value of Shipments, Number of
Establishments, and Employees.
As seen in Table 2.4, the state’s 1,591 food
and fiber processing and manufacturing facilities
employed 77,283 workers with a payroll of $3.2
billion in 2013. The value of shipments originating
from these industries was $36.1 billion (US
Census Bureau 2013). By comparison, the state’s
overall manufacturing employments was 290,841
workers in 2013 and the value of shipments was
$143.6 billion. This means that food and fiber
related manufacturing employed more than 1 in
4 manufacturing workers and generated over 1
in 4 manufacturing shipment dollars. The largest
percentage of the values of food and fiber-related
manufacturing shipments, 51.3 percent, arose from
food processing, followed by beverages at 17.1
percent.
Figure 2.14 displays the growth in value
of shipments from 2009 through 2013 for
Tennessee’s food, beverage, and tobacco products
manufacturing (NAICS 311 and 312 combined)
and wood, paper, and furniture products
(NAICS 321, 322, and 337 combined). Steady
growth in food, beverage, and tobacco products
manufacturing was primarily driven by growth
in beverage and tobacco products (NAICS 312),
which experienced an annual average growth of 7.2
percent from 2009 through 2013. Food processing
(NAICS 311) experienced a 3.5 percent annual
average growth over this time frame. Growth in
forest products manufacturing was primarily driven
by growth in wood products (NAICS 321) (8.6
trees were removed from Tennessee (international ¼ inch rule). Between 2009 and 2013, the average
annual growth in sawtimber removals was -2.2 percent. Factors that influenced these trends in the
The of
Tennessee
Economy: starts;
Short-Term
Outlook
primary forestry sector are: low new housing starts in 2009; slow recovery
new housing
and
relatively flat U.S. demand for paper, paperboard, and pulp due to declining newsprint, printing and
writing paper consumption (Howard and Westby 2013).
|
CHAPTER 2
2.5.Forestry
Tennessee’s
Agricultural
and Forest Industries and Rural Economy, b) Food, Fiber, and
Manufacturing
in Tennessee
continued
b.1 Value of Shipments, Number of Establishments, and Employees
Table 2.4: Tennessee Food, Fiber, and Forestry Manufacturing, 2013a
Table 3. Tennessee Food, Fiber, and Forestry Manufacturing, 2013a
Employees
(Number)
Manufacturing Industry/NAICS
Food (311)
Animal Slaughtering/Processing
(3116)
Beverage & Tobacco Products (312)
Textile Mills (313)
Textile Product Mills (314)
Apparel (315)
Leather & Allied Products (316)
Wood Products (321)
Paper (322)
Furniture & Related Products (337)
Total
a
EstablishPayroll
ments
(Million$) (Number)
Value of
Shipments
(Million $)
34,430
10,603
$1,446
$308
306
59
$18,530
$3,415
3,227
2,692
2,487
3,449
421
10,909
10,856
8,812
77,283
$190
$125
$81
$93
$12
$351
$599
$322
$3,218
91
55
138
94
27
461
124
295
1,591
$6,191
$987
$601
$354
D
$2,169
$5,688
$1,614
$36,133
Values for animal slaughtering and processing are imbedded in food manufacturing (311)
Values for animal slaughtering and processing are imbedded in food manufacturing (311) values
D = values
Data not disclosed
Source:
Census
2013.
D =US
Data
notBureau
disclosed
a
Figure 2.14: Agri-forestry 6Products Manufacturing Value of Shipments, 2009–2013
Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products
Wood, Paper & Furniture Products
$10.0
$26.0
$25.0
$9.0
Billion $
Billion $
$24.0
$23.0
$8.0
$22.0
$21.0
$7.0
$20.0
$6.0
$19.0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
percent) and paper (NAICS 322) manufacturing
(5.1 percent), with furniture and related products
(NAICS 337) experiencing a 1.5 percent annual
average growth. For all agri-forestry products
manufacturing between 2009 and 2013, growth
averaged 3.6 percent per year. Relatively flat annual
average growth occurred for textile mills (NAICS
313) (0.01 percent), with textile product mills
(NAICS 314) experiencing a 5.3 percent decrease
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
in value of shipments. Tennessee‘s share of the
national value of shipments for food processing
was 2.4 percent, beverage and tobacco products
was 4.2 percent, textile mills was 3.2 percent,
textile product mills was 2.6 percent, wood
products manufacturing was 2.4 percent, paper
manufacturing was 3.1 percent, and furniture and
related products was 2.3 percent.
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
|
39
CHAPTER 2
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The Tennessee Economy: Short-Term Outlook
2.5. Tennessee’s Agricultural and Forest Industries and Rural Economy, continued
Tennessee is a significant producer of ethanol in
the Southeast U.S. Two major processors located
in the state are Green Plains in Obion County
and Tate & Lyle in Loudon County. The Energy
Information Association lists capacity in Tennessee
at 225 million gallons per year (EIA 2015).
b.2. Economic Impacts from the Agri-forestry
Industrial Complex
In 2013, the agri-forestry industrial complex
directly contributed (without multiplier effects)
$49.0 billion in economic activity to the state’s
economy, adding 179.7 thousand jobs (Menard,
English, and Jensen 2016). The agri-forestry
industrial complex contributed $13.9 billion in
value-added. When accounting for multiplier
effects, the agri-forestry industrial complex
added $74.8 billion to Tennessee’s economy, or
12.8 percent of the state’s economic activity, and
employed 349,398 individuals, or 9.4 percent of
all workers. Agriculture, with multiplier effects,
accounted for 9.0 percent of the state’s economy
and generated $52.6 billion in output, employing
c) Rural Economies
Well-Being
closeand
to 254,000
Tennesseans, with 109,000
employed (both full- and part-time) in agricultural
production.
c. Rural Economies and Well-Being
Rural communities and their resources are
important contributors to the health of the agriforestry industrial complex. In 2014, about 22.8
percent of Tennessee’s population was classified
as rural. Table 2.5 presents several indicators,
including median household income, education
level, unemployment rate, and poverty rate across
rural and urban counties in Tennessee. The data
reflect lower household income, lower percentage
of college graduates, and higher unemployment
and poverty rates in rural areas of Tennessee than
in urban areas. Individuals 25 and over are about
half as likely to obtain a college degree as urban
individuals. Persons who are part of the rural
labor force are nearly 30 percent more likely to
be unemployed than persons who are part of the
urban labor force. A person residing in a rural area
is over 20 percent more likely to fall below the
poverty level than a person residing in an urban
area.
Rural communities and their resources are important contributors to the health of the agri-forestry
industrial complex. In 2014, about 22.8 percent of Tennessee’s population was classified as rural. Table
4 presents several indicators, including median household income, education level, unemployment rate,
and poverty rate across rural and urban counties
Table 4. Household Income, Education Level, and
2.5: lower
Household Income, Education Level, and Unemployment and Poverty Rates in Rural
in Tennessee. The Table
data reflect
Unemployment and Poverty Rates in Rural and
household income, lower percentage of college
and Urban Areas of Tennessee
Urban Areas of Tennessee
graduates, and higher unemployment and
Rural/
poverty rates in rural areas of Tennessee than in
Urban
urban areas. Individuals 25 and over are about
Measure
Rural
Urban Ratio
half as likely to obtain a college degree as urban
Median Household
$31,998 $41,810 0.77
individuals. Persons who are part of the rural
Income (2013$)
labor force are nearly 30 percent more likely to
2009-2013 Education
be unemployed than persons who are part of
Level, Persons 25 and
the urban labor force. A person residing in a
Over (5-Yr Avg) (Percent)
rural area is over 20 percent more likely to fall
Not Completed
20.9
13.9 1.50
below the poverty level than a person residing in
High School
an urban area.
Completed High
41.2
30.5 1.35
d) Governor’s Rural Challenge
The Governor’s Rural Challenge set forward
four major recommendations for Tennessee
agriculture (TDA 2013). These
recommendations were:
1.
2.
3.
4.
School
Completed College
2014 Unemployment
Rates (Percent)
2013 Poverty Rate
(Percent)
14.0
8.0
26.9
6.3
0.52
1.27
20.6
17.0
1.21
(Source:
USDA/ERS
2015g)
Source:
USDA/ERS
2015g.
Advance agriculture, natural resources, and rural infrastructure as Tennessee business priorities;
Ensure a positive and predictable policy and regulatory environment;
| 2016 TENNESSEE
ECONOMIC
REPORT
Expand market40
opportunities
for Tennessee
producers
and encourage new production; and
Increase the scope and depth of a skilled and educated workforce through career, technical, and
higher education.
The Tennessee Economy: Short-Term Outlook
|
CHAPTER 2
2.5. Tennessee’s Agricultural and Forest Industries and Rural Economy, continued
toward the aforementioned recommendations.
While the indicators were developed in 2013,
The Governor’s Rural Challenge set forward four
calculations for these indicator measures using
major recommendations for Tennessee agriculture
recent data can be used as baselines for future
(TDA 2013). These recommendations were:
growth. Notably, several of the “scorecard
1. Advance agriculture, natural resources, and
indicators” exhibited positive movement toward
rural infrastructure as Tennessee business
their
goals 2010-2014
in recent for
years.
Theseagriculture.
are listed in Table
priorities;
earlier, the capital consumption ratio was relatively low
between
Tennessee
TAEPainvestment
assists
farmers in expanding
on-farm
storage and building farm capital. TAEP
2.6.
2. Ensure
positive and
predictable
policy and
expenditures investing in productivity and infrastructure of the agricultural sector grew by 180.83
Several indicators of progress toward
regulatory
environment;
percent from 2007 to 2012 (see Recommendation 2). Positive indicators of progress toward
Recommendation
1 showedactivities
positive
progress.
3. Expand
market
opportunities
for
Tennessee
Recommendation 3 include growth in economic activity from farming and associated
in real
indicators
positive
outcomes
producers
encourage
new production;
terms byand
14.91
percent between
2006 and 2011, andThe
economic
activityexhibiting
from the food
and beverage
2012, economic
activity
from farming
during For
a 5-year
time span
between
agricultural
and processing industries growing in real terms by 5.33 percent.
and associated activities in real terms was $4.16 billion (36.71 percent greater than 2006) and economic
censuses (2007 to 2012) included reduction in the
4. Increase the scope and depth of a skilled
activity from food and beverage processing was $21.6 billion (19.46 percent greater than 2006). While
percentage
idle and
cropland,
growth in an
and raw
educated
workforce
through
career,
commodities
exported
out of state
decreased, the
inputs usedof
in food
beverageand
processing
index
of
major
crop
yields.
These
indicators
technical,
and
higher
imported
from
out ofeducation.
state increased, but only by 1.5 percent. Under Recommendation 4, two two
indicators
reflect
positive
progress
toward
building
a
skilled
and
educated
agricultural
workforce.
Educational
suggest that less cropland is sitting idle and that
Indicators were developed as part of the
programs, such as Master Farmer and Master Gardener,
saw over
12,574
Tennesseans
participating
cropland
use
is resulting
in higher
crop yields.
strategic planning
process to gauge progress
d. Governor’s Rural Challenge
from 2007-2012. Four-year agricultural degrees awarded annually increased from 516 in 2008/2009 to
621 in 2012/2013. The number of four year agricultural degrees awarded for the 2013-2014 year was
670. This is was 7.9 percent above the 2012-2013 year and 29.8 percent above the 2008-2009 year.
Table 2.6: Scorecard Indicators of Positive Progress for Tennessee Agriculture
Table 5. Scorecard Indicators of Positive Progress for Tennessee Agriculture
Indicator
Percent of Cropland that is Idled (%)
Index of Crop Yield Per Acre (7 major
crops)a
Tennessee Ag Enhancement Program
Expenditures (TAEP) (Million $)
Inflation Adjusted Values by CPI
(2007=100)
Economic Activity from Farming and
Associated Activities (Million $)
Inflation Adjusted Values by CPI
(2006=100)
Economic Activity from Food and
Beverage Processing (Million $)
Inflation Adjusted Values by CPI
(2006=100)
Percent of Agricultural Commodity
Exports to Out-of-State (%)
Graduates of Master Farmer/Gardener
Programs (Number in total)
Four Year Agricultural Degrees
Awarded (Number per Year)b
Strategic Plan
RecommPercent Change
Goal
endation
-0.83%
Decrease
1
2012
6.06%
2007
6.88%
120.60
100.00
20.60%
Increase
1
$18.31
$6.00
205.14%
Increase
2
$16.85
$6.00
180.83%
Increase
2011
$3,870
2006
$3,044
27.14%
Increase
$3,498
$3,044
14.91%
Increase
$21,110
$18,114
16.54%
Increase
$19,079
$18,114
5.33%
Increase
2011
55.10%
2008
59.30%
-4.20%
Decrease
3
2007-2012
12,574
2007-2008
5,826
115.83%
Increase
4
2012-2013
621
2008-2009
516
20.35%
Increase
4
3
3
Cotton, Hay,
Sorghum,
Soybeans,
Tobacco,
and Wheat
2012).
Yieldfor
ratios
2012
2007weighted
for eachbycrop
a
Corn, Cotton,Corn,
Hay, Sorghum,
Soybeans,
Tobacco,
and Wheat
(USDA/NASS
2012). (USDA/NASS
Yield ratios of 2012
to 2007
eachof
crop
weretoshare
2012were
acres of each crop.
Source: Tennessee Department of Higher Education Fact Books http://www.state.tn.us/ thec/Legislative/Reports.html.
a
9
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
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41
CHAPTER 2
|
The Tennessee Economy: Short-Term Outlook
2.5. Tennessee’s Agricultural and Forest Industries and Rural Economy, continued
Data was available to calculate the yield index for
2013 and 2014, with these values being 147.57
and 138.62 respectively, again indicating a growth
in yields compared with 2007. As noted earlier,
the capital consumption ratio was relatively low
between 2010-2014 for Tennessee agriculture.
TAEP investment assists farmers in expanding
on-farm storage and building farm capital.
TAEP expenditures investing in productivity
and infrastructure of the agricultural sector
grew by 180.83 percent from 2007 to 2012 (see
Recommendation 2). Positive indicators of
progress toward Recommendation 3 include
growth in economic activity from farming and
associated activities in real terms by 14.91 percent
between 2006 and 2011, and economic activity
from the food and beverage processing industries
growing in real terms by 5.33 percent. For 2013,
economic activity from farming and associated
activities in real terms was $4.1 billion (35.0
percent greater than 2006) and economic activity
from food and beverage processing was $21.4
billion (18.0 percent greater than 2006). While
raw commodities exported out of state decreased,
the inputs used in food and beverage processing
imported from out of state increased, but only
by 1.5 percent. Under Recommendation 4, two
indicators reflect positive progress toward building
a skilled and educated agricultural workforce.
Educational programs, such as Master Farmer and
Master Gardener, saw over 12,574 Tennesseans
participating from 2007-2012. Four-year
agricultural degrees awarded annually increased
from 516 in 2008/2009 to 621 in 2012/2013. The
number of four year agricultural degrees awarded
for the 2013-2014 year was 670. This is was 7.9
percent above the 2012-2013 year and 29.8 percent
above the 2008-2009 year.
These industries add $49 billion directly to the
state’s economy and, with multiplier effects, $74.8
billion in total. About 1 in 4 manufacturing jobs are
in food- and fiber-related manufacturing.
The farming sector in Tennessee is quite
diverse, which can help prevent large upswings
and downswings due to market movements of
one or two commodities. However, this diversity
means that the state’s farming sector, by and large,
is a market-follower at the farm-gate level, heavily
impacted by market changes and policies at the
national level. Furthermore, increasingly, export
markets impact farm pocketbooks. The state’s
farming sector is dual in nature, characterized with
larger farms supplying the majority of sales and
many smaller farms operated by part-time farmers
who also rely on off-farm income. Building
agricultural technology and infrastructure within
the state to increase agricultural productivity and
profitability will likely rely on increased rates of
capital investment.
Food and beverage manufacturing have
sustained steady growth. These industries
have proven to be fairly resilient to economic
downturns, such as those experienced in the late
2000’s. The forest products sector has seen slower
growth, with slowed domestic demands resulting
in part from the economic downturn of the late
2000’s. Economic growth and an upward trend
in new housing starts may place future positive
pressure on the demand for forest products.
Rural communities and counties are very
important to the agri-forestry industrial complex,
as is agri-forestry industrial complex to the rural
economy within the state. However, gaps in
income, educational attainments, unemployment,
and poverty between rural and urban areas persist.
Summary
Howard, J. and R. Westby. 2013. U.S. Timber
Production, Trade, Consumption and Price
Statistics 1965–2011. USDA/USFS Forest
Products Laboratory FPL-RP-676, http://
www.fpl.fs.fed.us/documnts/fplrp/fpl_rp676.
pdf.
The agri-forestry industrial complex
encompasses industries that produce food and
fiber and those adding value to these commodities.
This industrial complex is important to the state’s
economy, particularly to rural areas within the state.
42
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2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
References Used
The Tennessee Economy: Short-Term Outlook
|
CHAPTER 2
2.5. Tennessee’s Agricultural and Forest Industries and Rural Economy, continued
Jensen, K. M. Bruch, J. Menard, and B. English.
2013. “A Snapshot of Tennessee Agritourism:
2013 Update.” Available at http://aimag.
ag.utk.edu/pubs/AgritourismJune2013.pdf.
Menard, R., B. English, and K. Jensen. Economic
Contributions of Agriculture and Forestry in
Tennessee, 2013. Agri-Industry Modeling &
Analysis group Report, Department of Ag.
and Resource Economics, The University of
Tennessee, Knoxville, forthcoming 2016.
Menard, J., K. Jensen, and B. English. 2011. “An
Analysis of the Economic Impacts from
the Tennessee Agricultural Enhancement
Program (TAEP).” Report to the Tennessee
Department of Agriculture (TDA).
Available at http://aimag.ag.utk.edu/pubs/
TAEPEconomicImpacts.pdf.
Tennessee Department of Agriculture. 2013.
Governor’s Rural Challenge a 10-Year
Strategic Plan: Increasing Rural Tennessee’s
Capacity to Produce. http://www.tn.gov/
assets/entities/ agriculture/attachments/
AgBusRuralChallenge.pdf.
Tennessee Department of Higher Education.
Tennessee Department of Higher Education
Fact Books http://www.state.tn.us/ thec/
Legislative/Reports.html
US Census Bureau. 2013. Annual Survey of
Manufacturers, Geographic Area Statistics,
Tennessee. http://www.census.gov/
manufacturing/asm/.
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
2015. Tennessee State Energy Profile. https://
www.eia.gov/state/print.cfm?sid=TN.
USDA/AMS. 2016. Farmers Markets and Directto-Consumer Marketing. Farmers Market
Directory data https://apps.ams.usda.gov/
FarmersMarketsExport/ExcelExport.aspx.
USDA/ERS. 2015a. Cotton and Wood Yearbook.
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/
cotton,-wool,-and-textile-data/cotton-andwool-yearbook.aspx.
USDA/ERS. 2015b. Farm Income and Wealth
Statistics-Farm and Wealth Indicators. http://
www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/farmincome-and-wealth-statistics/farm-financeindicators-state-ranking.aspx#P7026ab87f4204
60ebfb73e2a2d2739b4_4_186iT0R0x16.
USDA/ERS. 2015c. Farm Income and Wealth
Statistics-Cash Receipts. http://www.ers.usda.
gov/data-products/farm-income-and-wealthstatistics/cash-receipts-by-commodity.aspx.
USDA/ERS. 2015d. Feed Grains Yearbook.
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/feedgrains-database/feed-grains-yearbook-tables.
aspx.
USDA/ERS. 2015e. Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy
Outlook. November. http://www.ers.usda.
gov/media/1942630/ldpm257.pdf.
USDA/ERS. 2014. Oil Crops Outlook. http://
usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/ers/
OCS//2010s/2014/OCS-12-12-2014.pdf.
USDA/ERS. 2015f. State Export Data. http://
www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/state-exportdata.aspx.
USDA/ERS. 2015g. State Fact Sheets: Tennessee.
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/statefact-sheets/state-data.aspx?StateFIPS=47&Stat
eName=Tennessee.
USDA/FAS. 2015. Global Agricultural Trade
System. http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.
aspx.
USDA/FSA. 2015a. ARC/PLC Election Data.
http://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-andservices/arcplc_program/.
USDA/FSA. 2015b. Crop Acreage Data Reported
to FSA. http://www.fsa.usda.gov/news-room/
efoia/electronic-reading-room/frequentlyrequested-information/crop-acreage-data/
index.
USDA/NASS. 2012. Census of Agriculture,
Tennessee. http://www.agcensus.usda.gov/
Publications/2012/.
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
|
43
CHAPTER 2
|
The Tennessee Economy: Short-Term Outlook
2.5. Tennessee’s Agricultural and Forest Industries and Rural Economy, continued
USDA/NASS. 2015a. Quick Stats. Tennessee
Agricultural Overview. http://www.nass.
usda.gov/Quick_Stats/Ag_Overview/
stateOverview.php?state=TENNESSEE.
USDA/NASS. 2015b. Quick Stats. U.S. Cattle
Inventory. http://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/.
USDA/NASS. 2015c. Quick Stats. Cotton Planted
Acreage-Tennessee. http://quickstats.nass.
usda.gov/.
44
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2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
USDA/NASS. 2015d. “Poultry Production and
Value 2014 Summary.” http://usda.mannlib.
cornell.edu/ usda/current/PoulProdVa/
PoulProdVa-04-30-2015.pdf
USDA/USFS. 2015. Forest Inventory Analysis.
http://apps.fs.fed.us/fia/fido/index.html.
The Tennessee Economy: Long-Term Outlook
|
CHAPTER 3
CHAPTER 3: THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY: LONG-TERM
OUTLOOK
In this chapter—
3.1.Introduction
3.2. Employment Outlook
3.3.Unemployment
3.4.Population
3.5.
Personal Income and Taxable Sales
3.6.
State Gross Domestic Product
3.1.Introduction
Previous chapters focused on the short-term
outlook (10 quarters ahead) using a cyclical forecast
which concentrated on the ups and downs of the
business cycle. This chapter provides a longerterm view (10 years ahead) of economic growth
in Tennessee based on a trend forecast. Typically,
the ups and downs of a business cycle have little
impact on the long-term trend performance of
an economy, although this was certainly not the
case with the Great Recession. More generally,
long-term growth is driven by growth in factors
of production such as population and the labor
force, productivity, human capital (i.e. knowledge,
education, and on-the-job experience), private
sector investments in productive inputs (equipment
and structures), and public investments in
infrastructure (from broadband to roadways).
All else equal, growth in any of these inputs
will stimulate economic growth for the state.
Recessions and economic booms are not built into
the trend forecast as they are unpredictable, but it
is likely that both will occur at some point in the
next decade.
Between 2005 and 2015, inflation-adjusted state
gross domestic product (GDP) in Tennessee grew
at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of
1.1 percent. This was slightly slower than the 1.4
percent CAGR for the U.S., but both were largely
affected by the Great Recession. By comparison,
inflation-adjusted state GDP is projected to
advance at a 2.2 percent CAGR between 2015
and 2025 and a 2.4 percent CAGR for the nation.
Over the last ten years, Tennessee personal income
grew by 3.8 percent (CAGR) and kept pace with
national income growth. Looking forward ten
years, personal income in Tennessee is expected to
increase by 4.5 percent (CAGR) between 2015 and
2025, which is slightly slower than the 4.8 percent
CAGR projected for the nation. As a result,
Tennessee’s per capita nominal personal income is
projected to fall from 87.2 percent of the national
average in 2015 to only 83.2 percent by 2025.
Due to the Great Recession, overall employment
growth was slow over the last ten years in
both Tennessee and the nation. Between 2005
and 2015, nonfarm employment in Tennessee
expanded by only 0.5 percent (CAGR), and
national employment growth increased by only 0.6
percent (CAGR). A more optimistic employment
outlook is projected for the next ten years, as
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
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45
CHAPTER 3
3.1.
|
The Tennessee Economy: Long-Term Outlook
Introduction, continued
Tennessee employment is forecasted to grow by
1.1 percent (CAGR) between 2015 and 2025 and
slightly outpace national employment growth
of 1.0 percent (CAGR). Despite these gains,
manufacturing employment in Tennessee is still
projected to fall over the next ten years, though
by only 0.1 percent (CAGR), with some nearterm gains being overwhelmed by longer-term
setbacks. This is much less severe than the 2.1
3.2.
Employment Outlook
Between 2005 and 2015 nonfarm employment
grew by 4.7 percent in Tennessee, which is
equivalent to a meager 0.5 percent CAGR.
Employment growth was slightly faster across
the nation where jobs expanded by 5.9 percent,
yielding a 0.6 percent CAGR. Slow growth
during this period was largely due to the Great
Recession, but there were still some bright spots
in Tennessee’s labor market. Employment in the
education and health services sector grew by
24.1 percent, professional and business services
employment expanded by 22.6 percent, and leisure
and hospitality jobs grew by 16.7 percent. This
was counteracted by an 18.9 percent reduction
in manufacturing jobs, a 12.2 percent drop in
information sector employment, and an 8.6 percent
contraction in the natural resources, mining, and
construction labor force.
Table 3.1 provides a snapshot of Tennessee’s
historical employment situation ten years ago as
well as a projection of the state’s employment
outlook ten years from now. Over the last ten years
the manufacturing sector has suffered the largest
losses, losing over 77,000 jobs and contracting by
2.1 percent (CAGR). Table 3.2 provides a more
detailed look into the employment dynamics of
the manufacturing sector. Between 2005 and 2015
employment in the durable goods sector fell by 1.8
percent (CAGR) or 42,900 jobs, while nondurable
goods employment fell by 2.5 percent (CAGR) or
34,400 jobs. All subsectors within manufacturing
were on the decline except for transportation
equipment which grew by 0.5 percent (CAGR)
46
|
percent (CAGR) contraction in manufacturing
jobs that occurred in Tennessee between 2005 and
2015. Manufacturing output, on the other hand, is
expected to grow as a result of productivity gains
between 2015 and 2025.
Subsequent sections of this chapter take a
retrospective look at economic growth between
2005 and the present as well as the state’s longterm outlook through 2025.
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
or 3,600 jobs and in the beverage and tobacco
sector where employment increased by 0.1 percent
(CAGR). Employment in the furniture and printing
and related support sectors saw the steepest
declines, shrinking by 7.1 percent (CAGR) each.
Looking ahead ten years, nonfarm employment
in Tennessee is projected to grow by 12.1 percent
between 2015 and 2025, representing a compound
annual growth rate of 1.1 percent. This is slightly
faster than the 10.3 percent growth rate expected
for the nation (equivalent to a 1.0 percent
compound annual growth rate). The manufacturing
sector is expected to see a very slight contraction
in employment over the next ten years, while all
other sectors are projected to grow or remain
stable. Employment growth will be largest in the
professional and business services sector, followed
by education and health services, and natural
resources, mining, and construction. Within the
manufacturing sector, durable goods employment
is projected to increase by 0.4 percent (CAGR)
between 2015 and 2025 while nondurable goods
employment will fall by 1.0 percent (CAGR).
Figure 3.1 shows state and national employment
growth patterns over the long-term forecast
period. Nonfarm employment growth in Tennessee
closely mirrors the trend of the national economy,
as both are expected to see positive growth
throughout the forecast horizon. Of course, since
this is a trend forecast the underlying assumption
is that no recessions will occur within the next ten
years, but a recession at some point during the
long-term forecast horizon is possible if not likely.
The Tennessee Economy: Long-Term Outlook
3.2.
|
CHAPTER 3
Employment Outlook, continued
The outlook for manufacturing employment, on
the other hand, is not as optimistic. For the nation,
manufacturing employment growth will remain
positive for most of the forecast horizon but
trend towards zero. In Tennessee, manufacturing
employment will see some positive growth over
the next four years, and then revert to trend
contraction in 2020 and throughout the rest of the
long-term outlook.
Figure 3.2 presents employment growth patterns
Table 3.1:Table
Tennessee
Nonfarm
Employment
by Broad Sector
(thousands of
jobs)
3.1:
Tennessee
Nonfarm
Employment
by
Broad
Sector (Thousands of Jobs)
Employment
Total Nonfarm
Natural Resources, Mining & Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & Business Services
Education & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Other Services
Government
U.S. Nonfarm
U.S. Manufacturing
Growth Rate (%)*
2005
2,743.0
125.3
408.8
598.0
49.4
143.3
312.5
330.3
262.1
100.7
412.7
2015
2,870.7
114.5
331.5
607.5
43.4
144.8
383.0
409.8
305.9
104.8
425.6
2025
3,217.7
136.4
327.3
651.6
45.0
152.1
509.3
489.1
351.9
103.0
452.0
2005 to 2015
0.5
-0.9
-2.1
0.2
-1.3
0.1
2.1
2.2
1.6
0.4
0.3
2015 to 2025
1.1
1.8
-0.1
0.7
0.4
0.5
2.9
1.8
1.4
-0.2
0.6
134.0
14.2
141.9
12.3
156.5
12.9
0.6
-1.4
1.0
0.4
*Compound Annual Growth Rate
*Compound
Annual Growth Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and CBER-UT.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and CBER-UT
Table 3.2:Table
Tennessee
Manufacturing
Emplyoment
by Sector (thousands
of jobs)
3.2:
Tennessee
Manufacturing
Employment
Manufacturing
Total Durable Goods
Wood Products
Nonmetallic Minerals
Primary Metals
Fabricated Metals
Machinery
Computers & Electronics
Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components
Transportation Equipment
Furniture
Miscellaneous Durables
Total Nondurable Goods
Food
Beverage & Tobacco
Textile Mills, Textile Mill Products & Apparel
Paper
Printing & Related Support
Chemicals
Plastics & Rubber
Miscellaneous Nondurable Goods
2005
408.8
254.6
17.7
15.9
12.0
42.6
33.9
10.4
23.5
63.9
19.2
15.3
154.2
34.3
5.4
18.0
18.9
18.8
27.2
29.3
2.3
Employment
2015
331.5
211.7
11.6
11.7
10.3
35.2
26.2
5.1
19.9
67.5
9.2
15.1
119.8
32.9
5.5
9.6
14.3
9.0
25.2
21.3
2.1
by Sector (Thousands of Jobs)
2025
327.3
219.3
12.1
11.2
10.1
34.2
25.8
3.7
21.2
78.4
7.9
14.8
107.9
31.8
4.8
6.4
11.8
7.7
22.2
21.7
1.5
Growth Rate (%)*
2005 to 2015
2015 to 2025
-2.1
-0.1
-1.8
0.4
-4.2
0.4
-3.0
-0.4
-1.5
-0.2
-1.9
-0.3
-2.5
-0.2
-6.9
-3.2
-1.6
0.6
0.5
1.5
-7.1
-1.5
-0.1
-0.2
-2.5
-1.0
-0.4
-0.3
0.1
-1.4
-6.1
-4.0
-2.8
-1.9
-7.1
-1.5
-0.8
-1.3
-3.1
0.2
-0.9
-3.3
*Compound Annual Growth Rate
*Compound
Annual
Growthand
Rate
Source:
Bureau of
Labor Statistics
CBER-UT.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and CBER-UT
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
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47
CHAPTER 3
3.2.
|
The Tennessee Economy: Long-Term Outlook
Employment Outlook, continued
Figure 3.1: Nonfarm Employment Continues to Grow While Manufacturing Employment
Reverts to Trend Contraction Over the Long-Term Forecast Horizon
4.0
2.0
0.0
Percentage change
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
-10.0
-12.0
-14.0
TN Total
U.S. Total
TN Mfg
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
-16.0
U.S. Mfg
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight Inc., and CBER-UT.
Figure 3.2: Total Covered Employment Growth
(June 2005 to June 2015)
Tennessee Average: 5.3%
U.S. Average 5.9%
Loss of 15.0% or more
-15.0% to 0.0%
0.1% to 5.2%
5.3% to 15.0%
15.1% to 30.9%
31.0% or greater
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
48
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2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
The Tennessee Economy: Long-Term Outlook
3.2.
|
CHAPTER 3
Employment Outlook, continued
across all Tennessee counties between 2005 and
2015. There were 36 counties that experienced
employment contractions over the last ten years.
Jackson County and McNairy County were hit
hardest, contracting by 33.1 percent and 31.5
percent respectively. Conversely, there were ten
counties which grew by at least 20.0 percent.
Lake County saw the strongest employment
gains, growing by an astounding 88.6 percent,
though due to Lake County’s small size, this only
represented an increase of 893 jobs. Williamson
County came in second with employment growth
of 54.4 percent, representing an additional 40,697
jobs, followed by Bledsoe County at 47.3 percent
or 691 additional jobs. In addition, employment in
Rutherford County grew by 22.0 percent or 20,878
jobs, Davidson County employment increased by
5.5 percent or 23,694 jobs, employment in Knox
County expanded by 5.2 percent or 11,420 jobs,
while in Shelby County employment fell by 2.2
percent or 11,081 jobs.
3.3.Unemployment
Over the last ten years the state unemployment
rate has generally rested slightly above the national
rate. A similar pattern is projected for the next
ten years as Tennessee’s unemployment rate
will remain just above its national counterpart
throughout most of the long-term forecast (see
Figure 3.3). However, the state and national rate
are both expected to trend downwards over the
next ten years. Tennessee’s unemployment rate
was 5.9 percent in 2015 and is projected to fall to
Figure 3.3: In the Long-Run, Tennessee’s Unemployment Rate Will Trend Downwards but
Remain Above the National Rate for Most of the Forecast Horizon
12.0
10.0
Rate (%)
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
TN
U.S.
US
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight Inc., CBER-UT.
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
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CHAPTER 3
3.3.
|
The Tennessee Economy: Long-Term Outlook
Unemployment, continued
5.1 percent by 2025. The national rate is pegged at
5.3 percent in 2015 and is expected to fall to 5.0
percent by 2025.
Tennessee’s labor force participation rate
has been severely depressed in recent years,
as currently almost half of the state’s adult
population is not in the workforce. (The labor
force is defined as the share of the adult
population that is either employed or actively
seeking employment.) In 2005, Tennessee’s labor
force participation rate was 62.0 percent and
only slightly below the national participation
rate of 64.5 percent. In 2015, the state’s labor
force participation rate fell to 57.7 percent and is
projected to fall even further to 55.1 percent by
2025; the national labor force participation rate
has fallen as well and will rest slightly above 60
percent in 2025. There are a number of reasons
for this low participation rate in Tennessee. As
was suggested in Chapter 2, poor health status
and low educational attainment in Tennessee are
two potential contributors to low labor force
participation. Specifically, in 2013 Tennessee had
the fifth highest adult smoking rate (24.3 percent
in Tennessee compared to 19.0 percent in the U.S.)
and fourth highest obesity rate in the nation (33.7
percent in Tennessee compared to 29.4 percent
in the U.S.).1 Moreover, Tennessee’s average life
1
Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Behavior Risk Factor Surveillance
System.
expectancy (76.3 years)2 is the eight lowest in the
nation and well below the national average of 78.8
years.3 Generally Tennesseans have poorer health
status than their national counterparts. With
regards to educational attainment, the percentage
of Tennesseans with at least a high school degree
(85.8 percent) is slightly below the national
average (86.9 percent), but Tennessee has shown
solid gains relative to the nation since 2010 (see
Figure 3.4). More importantly, the percentage of
Tennesseans with at least a Bachelor’s degree (25.3
percent) lags behind the national average of 30.1
percent and has not shown the same gains relative
to the national average as has been the case with
high school achievement.
State initiatives such as the Tennessee Promise,
which offers two years of tuition-free community
college or technical college to all Tennessee high
school graduates, and the Drive to 55, with its
goal of increasing the percentage of Tennesseans
with a college degree or certificate to 55 percent
of the Tennessee population by 2025, aim to
increase the education status of the state. If the
hoped-for gains are realized, this will support a
stronger growth trajectory for the state economy.
This could support stronger income growth and
a narrowing of the gap between the incomes of
Tennesseans and other Americans.
Measure of America 2013-2014.
2
Center for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics.
3
Figure 3.4: Educational Attainment Levels in Tennessee Are Below the National Average
High school graduates or higher
Bachelor’s degree or higher
35.0
86.9
87.0
86.0
85.8
85.6
85.0
84.0
83.6
83.0
82.0
2010
2014
TN
U.S.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
|
30.1
30.0
25.0
28.2
25.3
23.1
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
81.0
50
Percentage of the population aged 25 years and older
Percentage of the population aged 25 years and older
88.0
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2010
2014
TN
U.S.
The Tennessee Economy: Long-Term Outlook
3.3.
|
CHAPTER 3
Unemployment, continued
None of these explanations fully explain the
labor force participation trends that have taken
place in Tennessee and across the country. As the
Great Recession unfolded and participation rates
began to sag, there was speculation that a stronger
labor market and better job opportunities would
ultimately draw workers back into the labor force.
To date this has not occurred. However, it remains
a distinct possibility as labor markets in Tennessee
and across the U.S. tighten further and job gains
remain robust.
Figure 3.5 reports non-seasonally adjusted
unemployment rates across all Tennessee
counties for November 2005 and November
2015. In November 2005, the unemployment
rate in Tennessee was 5.3 percent (not seasonallyadjusted). There were 29 counties with an
unemployment rate at or below the state average
and 11 counties with a rate equal to or below the
national average of 4.8 percent (not seasonallyadjusted). Among all Tennessee counties in
2005, Williamson County registered the lowest
unemployment rate at 3.9 percent, followed by
Rutherford and Cheatham Counties at 4.2 percent,
and Knox County at 4.3 percent. Conversely,
there were four counties with unemployment
rates above 10 percent – Clay County (13.4
percent), Lawrence County (13.4 percent), Wayne
County (12.6 percent), and White County (10.2
percent). By comparison, in November 2015
Tennessee’s unemployment rate was 5.4 percent
(not seasonally-adjusted), which was slightly above
the national rate of 4.8 percent (not seasonallyadjusted). There were 28 counties with an
unemployment rate equal to or below the state rate
and 12 counties equal to or below the national rate.
Once again, the lowest unemployment rate was in
Williamson County (3.9 percent), while Rutherford
Figure 3.5: Unemployment Rates in 2015 Are Comparable to Their 2005 Counterparts in Most
Tennessee Counties
Tennessee: 5.3%
United States: 4.8%
November 2005
Less than 4.0%
4.0% to 5.3%
5.4% to 6.7%
6.8% to 7.9%
8.0% to 9.3%
Tennessee: 5.4%
United States: 4.8%
November 2015
9.4% or greater
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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CHAPTER 3
3.3.
|
The Tennessee Economy: Long-Term Outlook
Unemployment, continued
and Davidson Counties had the second lowest rate
at 4.2 percent. Moreover, there were zero counties
with an unemployment rate above 10 percent.
Hancock County, with an unemployment rate of
9.9 percent, had the highest rate among Tennessee
counties, followed by Lauderdale County at 9.4
percent.
In comparing county-level unemployment rates
between 2005 and 2015, there were 30 counties
that saw their unemployment rate fall, six counties
that reported no change, and 59 counties that
experienced an increase in their unemployment
rate. However, in 33 counties the rate change was
less than 0.5 percentage points. Lawrence County
saw the biggest drop in its unemployment rate,
falling from 13.4 percent in 2005 down to 6.8
percent in 2015, an amazing 6.6 percentage point
drop. Four other counties enjoyed unemployment
rate drops in excess of 4.0 percentage points (Clay,
Warren, Wayne, and White Counties.) Conversely,
the largest rate increase was in Obion County
where the unemployment rate increased from
5.3 percent in 2005 to 8.4 percent in 2015. Five
additional counties saw their unemployment rate
increase by 2.0 percentage points or more (Dyer,
Hancock, Marion, McNairy, and Scott Counties)
3.4.Population
Over the long-term, population changes will
have a large impact on employment and economic
activity in Tennessee since population directly
affects the size of the state’s labor force. Between
2005 and 2015, Tennessee’s population grew by
12.4 percent, outpacing national population growth
of 8.7 percent. These records equate to compound
annual growth rates of 1.2 percent for Tennessee
and 0.8 percent for the nation. Between 2015 and
2025 population growth for the state and nation
are projected to slow down slightly, as Tennessee
will see an 11.2 percent growth rate while the U.S.
will see 8.1 percent growth.
Figure 3.6 presents historical and projected
population growth at the county level for 2005
to 2015 and 2015 to 2025. Between 2005 and
2015, Montgomery, Rutherford, and Williamson
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2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Counties all saw spectacular population growth
rates of 30 percent or higher. There were seven
additional counties with growth between 20 and 30
percent (Fayette, Loudon, Robertson, Sequatchie,
Sevier, Sumner, and Wilson County). Conversely,
Clay, Grundy, Hardeman, Haywood, and Obion
Counties all saw their populations decline.
Between 2015 and 2025, Williamson County is
projected to see the strongest rate of population
growth, expanding by 33.7 percent equating
to an additional 71,117 residents, followed by
Rutherford County at 29.7 percent or 90,689
additional residents. Fayette, Montgomery, and
Wilson Counties will also see population growth in
excess of 20 percent. Projections indicate that Clay,
Hardeman, Haywood, and Obion Counties will
experience population contractions.
The Tennessee Economy: Long-Term Outlook
3.4.
|
CHAPTER 3
Population, continued
Figure 3.6: Tennessee Population Growth
Tennessee: 12.4%
United States: 8.8%
2005 to 2015
Less than 0.0%
0.0% to 4.9%
5.0% to 11.1%
11.2% to 17.3%
17.4% to 23.5%
Tennessee: 11.2%
United States: 8.1%
2015 to 2025
23.6% or greater
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and CBER-UT.
3.5.
Personal Income and Taxable Sales
Between 2015 and 2025, nominal personal
income is projected to grow by 4.5 percent
(CAGR) in Tennessee, outpacing the 3.8 percent
compound annual growth rate that was registered
between 2005 and 2015. Income growth for the
nation matched income growth in Tennessee
between 2005 and 2015 but will surpass Tennessee
income growth between 2015 and 2025.
Long-term income growth in Tennessee will
be driven by a 5.4 percent (CAGR) increase in
proprietors’ income and a 4.8 percent (CAGR)
expansion in rent, interest, and dividend income
between 2015 and 2025. Wages and salary income
will also grow by 3.8 percent (CAGR) over the next
10 years.
Per capita income in Tennessee was only 86.8
percent of the national average in 2015. From
2015 to 2025, per capita income growth in the
state is expected to grow by 3.5 percent, but lag
behind national per capita income growth of 4.0
percent. As a result, state per capita income will
drop to 82.5 percent of the national average by
2025. Because the state starts with a lower level of
per capita income, it must actually realize stronger
growth rates to ultimately catch up with the nation.
As noted earlier, the state has embarked on a
number of initiatives to improve the educational
standing of the state’s workforce. If these
investments are effective, they can mitigate or even
reverse the trends that are projected here.
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CHAPTER 3
3.5.
|
The Tennessee Economy: Long-Term Outlook
Personal Income and Taxable Sales, continued
Nominal taxable sales in Tennessee are expected
to grow by 3.8 percent (CAGR) between 2015 and
2025. This is much stronger than the 2.5 percent
compound annual growth rate that took place
between 2005 and 2015. Taxable sales growth in
Tennessee will be driven by hotel and motel sales
which will increase by 5.0 percent (CAGR) over
the next ten years, and stronger automobile dealer
3.6.
State Gross Domestic Product
Inflation-adjusted state gross domestic product
(GDP) grew by only 0.7 percent in 2013 but
then rebounded in 2014, growing by 2.3 percent.
Growth of 2.4 percent is expected for 2015 and
2.3 percent growth is projected for 2016. Similar
growth was seen in the nation as real GDP
advanced 2.4 percent in both 2014 and 2015 but is
expected to see a faster 2.7 percent growth rate in
2016. Over the long-run forecast horizon, output
in Tennessee is expected to continue growing at
a similar albeit slightly slower trend, averaging
roughly 2.2 percent growth per year over the next
ten years.
Table 3.3 presents a summary of the longrun outlook for inflation-adjusted state GDP.
Between 2005 and 2015, inflation-adjusted state
GDP grew by a sluggish 1.1 percent (CAGR) in
Tennessee, which was slightly slower than the
1.4 percent compound annual growth rate that
inflation-adjusted GDP registered for the nation.
Of course, this time period encapsulates the Great
Recession which suppressed output growth in the
late 2000’s. Over the last decade, production in the
construction sector and other services sector were
hit hardest, falling by a compound annual growth
rate of 1.5 percent each. The manufacturing sector
54
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sales, which are projected to grow by 4.6 percent
(CAGR) between 2015 and 2025, compared to
only 2.2 percent (CAGR) over the last ten years.
Purchases from manufacturers will also increase
by 3.9 percent (CAGR) in the next ten years,
compared to only 0.1 percent (CAGR) growth
between 2005 and 2015.
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
grew by a sluggish 0.8 percent (CAGR) between
2005 and 2015, but production has nearly clawed
back to the pre-recession peak levels registered
in 2006. Conversely, service sectors such as
professional and business services and education
and health services saw output grow by more
than 2.5 percent (CAGR) over the last ten years.
Financial activities output also expanded by 2.5
percent (CAGR) and natural resources and mining
production grew by 2.3 percent (CAGR).
Looking ahead ten years, inflation-adjusted state
GDP will grow by 2.2 percent (CAGR) between
2015 and 2025. This is slightly slower than the 2.4
percent compound annual growth rate projected
for national GDP. In Tennessee, professional and
business services output is projected to grow the
fastest over the next ten years, expanding by 3.7
percent (CAGR), followed by natural resources
and mining output at 3.4 percent (CAGR). State
manufacturing output will advance 2.3 percent
(CAGR), as durable goods manufacturing
production increases by 2.8 percent (CAGR) and
nondurable goods manufacturing output grows 1.5
percent (CAGR). It is notable that manufacturing
output will expand while manufacturing
employment is expected to contract.
The Tennessee Economy: Long-Term Outlook
3.6.
|
CHAPTER 3
State Gross Domestic Product, continued
TableInflation-Adjusted
3.3: Tennessee
Gross
Table 3.3: Tennessee
GrossInflation-Adjusted
Domestic Product by Sector
Domestic Product by Sector
Level (millions of 2009 dollars)
State Gross Domestic Product
Natural Resources & Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable Goods
Nondurable Goods
Trade, Transportation, Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation & Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & Business Services
Education & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal
State & Local
*Compound Annual Growth Rate
*Compound
Annual Growth
Rate Analysis and CBER-UT
Source: Bureau
of Economic
2005
252,717
2,553
11,319
43,954
26,116
17,838
52,831
18,420
20,139
14,272
7,424
35,367
25,285
22,995
11,330
7,496
32,163
8,507
23,656
2015
281,548
3,216
9,756
47,428
27,410
20,017
52,904
18,933
19,590
14,382
9,068
45,432
33,169
29,853
11,960
6,477
32,285
7,582
24,704
2025
349,209
4,486
12,058
59,291
36,122
23,170
65,661
24,685
23,870
17,106
11,988
56,876
47,691
36,806
14,349
6,060
33,943
6,214
27,729
Growth Rate (%)*
2005 to 2015
1.1
2.3
-1.5
0.8
0.5
1.2
0.0
0.3
-0.3
0.1
2.0
2.5
2.8
2.6
0.5
-1.5
0.0
-1.1
0.4
2015 to 2025
2.2
3.4
2.1
2.3
2.8
1.5
2.2
2.7
2.0
1.7
2.8
2.3
3.7
2.1
1.8
-0.7
0.5
-2.0
1.2
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and CBER-UT.
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Tennessee’s Drive to 55: Background, Early Results, and Challenges Lying Ahead
|
CHAPTER 4
CHAPTER 4: TENNESSEE’S DRIVE TO 55: BACKGROUND, EARLY
RESULTS, AND CHALLENGES LYING AHEAD
In this chapter—
4.1.
Introduction and Key Points
4.2.
4.3.
The Landscape of College Progression in Tennessee
Will “Free Community College” Make a
Difference in Tennessee? Early
Indicators
4.4.
Challenges and Opportunities
Changing the Culture of College Aspirations
Undermatching
Readiness and Research
The Other 45 percent
4.5.Acknowledgements
4.6.References
4.1.
Introduction and Key Points
Tennessee’s “Drive to 55” is an effort initiated
in 2013 to have 55 percent of working-age
Tennesseans hold a higher education credential
by 2025. The initiative has three major branches.
Tennessee Promise focuses on young adults at the
cusp between high school and college, offering
state-funded grants to cover the gap between
other sources of financial aid and community
college tuition and fees. The underlying message,
“Free Community College,” has proven to be
compelling, in many cases instantly transforming
a young person’s view of college. But with around
90,000 18-year old Tennesseans in a given year,
Tennessee’s working-age population of 3.5 million
will not meet the 55 percent threshold in twelve
years by focusing exclusively on young, traditional
college students. With this in mind, the second
branch of Drive to 55 applies to older adults who
might like to go back to school: if so, Tennessee
Reconnect grants offer them free passage through
the Tennessee College of Applied Technology
system, which provides laser-focused vocational
programs. And to ensure that Tennessee Promise
and Reconnect do not operate with blinders to
actual job opportunities, the relatively newer
Tennessee LEAP intends to identify skill gaps in
the state and align them with college programs.
Stepping back a moment, why 55 percent?
Influential 2012 and 2013 Georgetown University
studies projected that by 2020, 55 – 58 percent of
Tennessee jobs would require at least some college
training, or conversely, that a high school diploma
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CHAPTER 4
4.1.
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Tennessee’s Drive to 55: Background, Early Results, and Challenges Lying Ahead
Introduction and Key Points, continued
would suffice for only 42 – 45 percent of jobs.
This study, alongside the Lumina Foundation’s
claim that 60 percent of Americans should
hold a postsecondary credential by 2025 (“Goal
2025”), are typically cited as motivating factors
behind Governor Haslam’s choice of 55 percent.
This is not as high as the Lumina Foundation’s
national target, but higher than the target implied
by the Georgetown studies, which considered
postsecondary certificates as equivalent to “some
college, no degree.” Regardless, the state’s goal
to raise postsecondary attainment to at least 55
percent within twelve years is rightly called a
“moon launch” given that the starting point was
closer to 36 percent.
This chapter focuses on the first branch of
Drive to 55, that is, Tennessee Promise efforts
that aim to increase the flow of young people
into college and through college successfully. If
Promise and affiliated programs are able to build
and sustain higher rates of college enrollment and
completion among traditional-aged students, Drive
to 55 efforts will outlive 2025 as new waves of
young adults build the base of college-educated
workers with each passing year.
Section 1 surveys the pre-Promise landscape of
student progression into college or the workforce
after high school. Section 2 reviews early evidence
on the effect of Promise and its privatelyfunded predecessors on college enrollment and
persistence. Section 3 highlights some of the
challenges and opportunities lying ahead. Key
findings and points of discussion include:
• Prior to Tennessee Promise, 54 - 55 percent
of high school graduates enrolled in college
shortly after graduation. Those that did not
go to college earned just $8,715 – 8,838 the
4.2.
|
•
•
The Landscape of College Progression in Tennessee
Before turning to early indicators of success
for Tennessee Promise, we first survey the prePromise landscape of student progression through
high school and into college. These patterns,
58
•
year after graduation, on average, if they
worked at all. Dropouts earned even less.
Knox Achieves, one of the privatelyfunded initiatives that served as a model
for Tennessee Promise, is linked to a 2 – 3
percentage-point greater rate of college
enrollment among typical high school
senior classes and a 3 – 5 percentage-point
gain in community college enrollment.
Results imply that most – but not all – of
the students whose college decisions were
swayed by the program chose college over
work rather than a two-year college over a
four-year college.
Results from Knox Achieves foreshadowed
the first year of Tennessee Promise. Firstyear student enrollment rose substantially
across Tennessee’s public higher education
systems, but large growth in two-year
programs were possibly offset to a degree by
declines in four-year university enrollment.
Going forward, one challenge for the
Tennessee Promise branch of the Drive to
55 will be to ensure that transfer pathways
between two-year and four-year college
sectors are seamless. At the same time,
high rates of remedial education in twoyear colleges and low rates of degree or
certificate completion call attention to
college readiness and persistence. The
state has a rich history of education policy
research: more is needed now to identify
cost-effective policies and programs that
help students meet their postsecondary
goals. Finally, factors behind economic
security and success for “the other 45
percent” warrant closer examination.
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
which closely reproduce similar data reported by
the Harvard Strategic Data Project and the state
Department of Education, offer a detailed view
of the Drive to 55 starting point as it relates to
Tennessee’s Drive to 55: Background, Early Results, and Challenges Lying Ahead
4.2.
|
CHAPTER 4
The Landscape of College Progression in Tennessee, continued
traditional college students. The extent to which
these patterns change in the coming years will be
one measure of the success of Tennessee Promise
and the Drive to 55 more broadly.
Student progression is defined by the education
choices students make after reaching the age when
they can legally leave school (17 in Tennessee)
as well as evident career readiness for students
who do not pursue college. Here, we document
trends in on-time high school progression, on-time
regular high school graduation, seamless college
enrollment, and for students who do not go on to
college, first-year workforce outcomes. We include
timely progression through high school alongside
postsecondary benchmarks because over the
coming years, student success in high school may
reasonably be affected by policies that make college
more feasible. More specific definitions for student
progression outcomes are as follows:
• On-time 10th grade: enrolling in 10th grade
one academic year after starting 9th grade.
• On-time 11th grade: enrolling in 11th grade
two academic years after starting 9th grade.
• On-time 12th grade: enrolling in 12th grade
three academic years after starting 9th grade.
• On-time regular high school graduation:
obtaining a regular high school diploma
(not a GED) within four academic years of
starting 9th grade.
• Seamless college enrollment: enrolling in any
college by October 1st following high school
graduation.
• For high school graduates who do not enroll
in college the year after high school (by
March 1st of the year after graduation), we
identify several workforce outcomes from
the first calendar year (January through
December) after graduation.
o Labor force participation: having any
record of earnings in the state
Unemployment Insurance (UI) data
files. Note that this will exclude out-of
state work, self-employment, some
agricultural work, and military
enlistment.
o For graduates in the UI workforce,
January through December earnings.
o For graduates in the UI workforce, the
dominant industry of employment.
o For dropouts, labor force participation and
earnings five years after starting 9th grade.
We identified students who enrolled in
Tennessee public schools as 9th graders in 20072008 and 2008-2009. Longitudinal data allow us to
follow these students as they progressed through
high school and into college or the workforce.
Data were combined from administrative records
held by the Tennessee Department of Education
(TDOE), the Tennessee Higher Education
Commission (including college enrollment records
from the National Student Clearinghouse), and the
Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce
Development.1
Table 1 illustrates typical student progression
patterns. From here on we refer to cohorts by the
academic year they began high school (so, students
entering in 2008-2009 represent the cohort of
2009 9th graders) or the academic year in which
they graduated (students graduating in 2010-2011
represent the 2011 graduating cohort).
Trends depicted in Table 1 take place during
a truly unique time that encompasses the
Great Recession and its immediate aftermath.
Significant job losses occurred in 2008 and 2009
and significant job gains were not realized until
2011, when the cohort of 2008 9th graders were
typically in 12th grade and 2009 9th graders were in
11th grade. The annual state unemployment rate
in Tennessee peaked at 10.5 percent in 2009 while
the national rate peaked in the following year at
9.6 percent. Significant changes in labor force
participation rates and inflation-adjusted earnings
also occurred over this period of time. Many of
these changes had a disproportionate effect on
lower skilled and younger workers. Such patterns
may have affected decisions on programs of study,
college choice, and the tradeoff between work,
college, and unemployment. These dramatic
changes in the economy and labor market are
1
We exclude students who transferred out of Tennessee public schools prior
to high school completion or prior to dropping out, but we include students
who transferred in to Tennessee schools after 9th grade. We omit students in
alternative or vocational high schools.
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CHAPTER 4
4.2.
|
Tennessee’s Drive to 55: Background, Early Results, and Challenges Lying Ahead
The Landscape of College Progression in Tennessee, continued
Table 4.1: Timely Student Progression Among 2007 and 2008 9th Graders
Table 4.1: Timely student progression among 2007 and 2008 9th graders
Grade
Spring year
9th
2008
C08
2009
C09
2010
10th
11th
12th
Post-secondary
C08
C09
2011
C08
C09
2012
2013
C08
C09
C08
2007 cohort
C09
2008 cohort
2014
an important backdrop to all of the descriptive
statistics discussed below.2
Table 2 lists descriptive statistics for each
progression outcome, along with sample size. High
school progression outcomes follow the expected
pattern, with on time graduation noticeably less
likely than on time 12th grade, which is less likely
than on time 11th grade, which is less likely than
on time 10th grade. We find that 87 - 88 percent of
9th graders in these cohorts completed high school
within four years.3
Among all high school graduates, including ontime and late graduates, 51 – 52 percent seamlessly
enrolled in college (whether part-time or fulltime is not known) by October 1st of the year
they graduated. Just over 1 in 3 graduates went
to a four-year college or university and just over
1 in 6 went to a two-year community college or
technology center.4
What happened to graduates who did not go
straight to college? We find that 3 percent of
graduates enrolled after a break from school but
no later than March 1st of the year after graduation.
The majority of late enrollees attended two-year
institutions. For those who did not enroll in college
at all the year after graduation, we can get a very
short-sighted view of their career readiness by
examining Tennessee workforce outcomes. Using
statewide records on earnings reported to the
2
See Chapter 4 of Murray et al. (2015) for a detailed analysis of structural
changes in the labor market over the arc of the Great Recession.
3
Not shown in Table 2: another 1 - 2 percent of students graduated one or two
years later.
4
These figures include enrollment at in-state, out-of-state, public, and private
institutions. College enrollment data are drawn from the National Student
Clearinghouse, a non-profit organization that maintains enrollment records for
(as of this writing) well over 90 percent of postsecondary students.
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2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Unemployment Insurance system,5 we find that
just 2 out of 3 graduates who did not go straight
to college were in the Tennessee workforce the
year after graduation (Table 3). Of those who
were working, nominal first-year earnings averaged
$8,715 for the 2008 cohort (who would have
typically graduated in 2011) and $8,838 for the
2009 cohort.6 Note that these low average earnings
typically reference 2012 and 2013 calendar years,
and thus they must be considered alongside the
Great Recession cycle and its uneven impact on
younger, lower skilled, less educated individuals.
Three-quarters of graduates who did not go
straight to college were found working in one of
three industries the year after graduation: food
and accommodation services, retail, or business
services.7 The “business service” category includes
finance, accounting, insurance, real estate, and
5
First-year earnings are measured over January – December of the year after
high school graduation. Again, we note that Unemployment Insurance records
exclude earnings from self-employment, earnings from other states, some forms
of agricultural or domestic pay, and some federal earnings (including military
pay).
6
These earnings are not adjusted for inflation, which measured about 1 percent
between 2012 and 2013 when, respectively, the 2008 and 2009 9th grade
cohorts were typically out of high school and working. The 2008 cohort’s
inflation-adjusted earnings of $8,802 were very similar to $8,838 average
earnings among the 2009 cohort. We do not observe hours worked, so it is not
possible to directly discern who was working part-time and who was working
full-time. A very small share of students had earnings that would exceed full-time
pay at the minimum wage.
7
Industry participation is assessed from NAICS codes reported by employers
to the Unemployment Insurance system. Individuals can be associated with
more than one industry in a given year or in a given quarter. These statistics
refer to the primary, or most frequent, industry of occupation in the year after
high school, allowing for ties between two or more industries. Accordingly,
industry percentages add up to more than 100 percent. NAICS data do not allow
identification of an individual’s occupation. The NAICS code that an individual is
linked to may change because his or her firm opted to identify under a difference
NAICS (following a merger or change in operational focus, perhaps), although
these instances are likely rare relative to the more common occurrence of a
worker’s movement into a different firm and industry.
Tennessee’s Drive to 55: Background, Early Results, and Challenges Lying Ahead
4.2.
|
CHAPTER 4
The Landscape of College Progression in Tennessee, continued
Table 4.2: HighTable
School
Progression,
Graduation,
and
College
Enrollment
Means by Cohort
4.2. High
school progression,
graduation, and
college
enrollment
means by cohort
Ninth-grade cohort (spring year of ninth grade)
High school progression
On time 10th grade (%)
On time 11th grade (%)
On time 12th grade (%)
On time regular graduation (%)
Sample size for high school progression outcomes
Initial college enrollment (among graduates)
Seamless college enrollment (% by October 1 following graduation)
Seamless two-year college enrollment (% in community colleges and TCATs)
Seamless four-year college enrollment (%)
Late college enrollment (% by March 1st of the following year)
Samples size for college enrollment outcomes (equal to the number of HS graduates)
2008
2009
95.5
95.0
92.7
87.0
96.1
95.9
93.7
88.0
67,932
68,124
51.9
17.3
34.5
3.0
50.8
16.7
34.1
2.9
59,158
59,936
Table 4.3: High School Graduates Who Do Not Go on to College: Workforce Participation,
Table 4.3: High school graduates who
do not go on
to college:
Workforce
participation, earnings, and industry by cohort
Earnings,
and
Industry
by Cohort
Ninth-grade cohort (spring year of ninth grade)
2008
2009
Tennessee workforce participation
In Tennessee UI-covered labor force in the year following graduation (%)
66.7
65.9
26,682
27,742
Earnings first academic year after graduation (Q1 - Q4, not including zeros)
$8,715
$8,838
Food service and accommodation (%)
29.36
30.09
Retail (%)
25.29
25.17
Business services (%)
22.00
22.33
Manufacturing (%)
6.40
6.65
Health (%)
6.05
5.40
Other services (%)
5.69
5.36
Transportation (%)
3.60
4.54
Construction (%)
3.42
3.10
Wholesale (%)
1.91
1.95
Professional services (%)
1.34
1.58
Arts (%)
1.55
1.35
Education (%)
1.34
1.38
Public services (%)
1.26
1.25
Mining, forestry, agriculture (%)
< 1.0
< 1.0
Utilities (%)
< 1.0
< 1.0
Unknown industry (%)
< 1.0
< 1.0
17,785
18,270
Samples size for graduates' workforce participation
Earnings and primary industry of employment
Samples size for wage and industry outcomes
Notes: An individual’s primary industry is the one identified more frequently than any other over the course of the calendar year. Primary industry shares add up to more than 100
Notes:
An individual’s
primary
industry
is theprimary
one identified
percent
because
we allow for ties
between
two or more
industries.more frequently than any other over the course of the calendar year. Primary
industry shares add up to more than 100 percent because we allow for ties between two or more primary industries.
office administration, but the majority of graduates
in business services appear to be associated with
temporary employment services or employment
placement services.
Figure 1 illustrates first-year destinations for
all high school graduates in the 2008 and 2009
cohorts, by region. The standout observation from
Figure 1 is that for all three regions of the state –
East, Middle, and West – four-year colleges and
universities were the most frequent destinations
among graduates, with two-year colleges a distant
second. After college enrollment, the next most
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Tennessee’s Drive to 55: Background, Early Results, and Challenges Lying Ahead
The Landscape of College Progression in Tennessee, continued
frequent destination is the workforce, describing
almost 40,000 students who we have categorized
by primary industry of employment in Figure
1. Over 18,000 students from these two cohorts
were not observed in college or in the Tennessee
workforce. Across all three regions, the most
popular industries for students who did not enroll
in college, by far, were food and accommodation
services, retail, and business services.
Another observation from Figure 1 is that
East Tennessee high schools sent a higher share
of graduates to two-year colleges (22 percent)
than Middle or West Tennessee schools (13 – 15
percent). That distinction is even clearer in Figure
2, which illustrates 4-year and 2-year seamless
college enrollment rates by county of students’
last high school.8 The bottom portion of Figure 2
also illustrates that geographic proximity to a fouryear college or university is aligned with four-year
enrollment rates. Spatial clusters of relatively high
four-year enrollment coincide with the location of
Tennessee’s major four-year public institutions in
the northwest, southwest, northeast, east-central,
and central north parts of the state.
Last, what happened to students who did not
complete high school? As we show in Table 4, less
than half were found working in the Tennessee
workforce five years after starting high school,
and of those who were working, average annual
8
Figure 2 depicts college enrollment rates by geographic boundaries, not by
school district boundaries. City school districts are included with their respective
counties.
Figure 4.1: College or Workforce Destinations the Year After High School Graduation, by
Region
Notes: The figure depicts the first-year destinations of 119,094 high school graduates from the two cohorts starting 9th grade in 2007-2008 or 2008-2009, by the region of
students’ last high school.
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4.2.
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CHAPTER 4
The Landscape of College Progression in Tennessee, continued
earnings were just $6,000 – 6,100.9 It is worth
noting that non-completers conceivably had more
time to find employment and work toward pay
raises than graduates, and yet dropout earnings
were substantially lower at roughly the same
point in time. And for both graduates and noncompleters, annual earnings of $6,000 - $8,838
are well below the federal poverty line for a oneperson household ($11,170 in 2012 and $11,490 in
2013).
9
Non-completers’ primary industries of employment (not shown) followed a very
similar pattern as that for graduates who did not go on to college (Table 3).
Figure 4.2: Seamless College Enrollment Rates by County of First High School
A. Two-year college and technology center enrollment rates
26.1 to 37.2%
19.2 to 26.1%
12.3 to 19.2%
3.7 to 12.3%
Insufficient data
B. Four-year college and university enrollment rates
36.6 to 65.5%
27.8 to 36.6%
19.1 to 27.8%
11.1 to 19.1%
Insufficient data
Notes: Seamless college enrollment is defined as attending college by October 1st after high school graduation. College enrollment includes attendance in any institution
identified by the National Student Clearinghouse, including in-state, out-of-state, public, and private institutions. Color codes are aligned with standard deviations on college
enrollment rates across counties.
Table 4.4: High School Dropouts: Workforce Participation, Earnings, and Industry Five Years
After
9th Grade,
by and
Cohort
Table 4. High school dropouts: Workforce
participation,
earnings,
industry five years after 9th grade, by cohort
Ninth-grade cohort (spring year of ninth grade)
In Tennessee UI-covered labor force five years after starting 9th grade (%)
2008
2009
47.7
48.9
Earnings five years after starting 9th grade (Q1 - Q4, not including zeros)
$6,100
$6,000
Non-completer sample size
8,773
8,186
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Tennessee’s Drive to 55: Background, Early Results, and Challenges Lying Ahead
Will “Free Community College” Make A Difference in Tennessee?
Early Indicators
On January 9th, 2015, President Obama
proposed “America’s College Promise,” a
partnership between states and the federal
government that would pay for two years of
community college tuition for “everybody who’s
willing to work for it.”
The setting for this announcement – Pellissippi
State Community College in Knoxville, Tennessee
– coincided with the launch of Tennessee Promise.
Nearly 58,000 students – the vast majority of
eligible seniors – expressed interest in November
2014, and 31,000 were still active in the program as
of April 2015. Prospective college students are not
alone in their enthusiasm for Tennessee Promise.
An astonishing 86 percent of registered voters
approved of the initiative in a 2014 Vanderbilt poll.
Will Tennessee Promise push more students
into college and fundamentally change some of
the patterns presented in the previous section? A
CBER study by Celeste Carruthers and William
Fox suggests it will.
Tennessee Promise is a “last dollar” grant
that covers the gap between state and federal
scholarships (including “merit-based” Tennessee
HOPE scholarships and “need-based” federal
Pell grants) and the tuition and fees that students
must pay to enroll. In a state where the median
household income is $44,000 and 18 percent
of the population lives below the poverty level,
many students qualify for Pell grants that cover
community college tuition, fees, and more. In-state
tuition and fees for Tennessee community colleges
amounted to $3,640 in 2013-2014, on average,
while Pell grants were worth up to $5,645 in the
same year. HOPE scholarships pay an additional
$2,000 for eligible two-year students. Critics of last
dollar programs are quick to point out that money
does not actually flow to the neediest students, and
moreover, that the cost of college does not stop
at tuition. Books, supplies, transportation, child
care, and living expenses are not covered by last
dollar scholarships. This raises the question of why
58,000 students would sign up for financial aid that
many of them will not receive.
A strong and clear message – “Free Community
College” – is surely one piece of that puzzle.
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Students are not perfectly aware of their financial
aid options, especially if they would be the first
in their family to go to college. “Free Community
College,” though not strictly correct (economists
will tell you that nothing is free), is an attractive
banner. In Tennessee, that message is paired with
one-on-one mentoring throughout students’ senior
year of high school. Mentors are unpaid volunteers
from the community who guide students and
their families through college and financial aid
applications and help students plan for orientation,
registration, and basic logistics. Mentors who
have “been there” provide critical support and
experience. Importantly, mentors alleviate the
onerous federal financial aid process.10 The Free
Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) was
never intended to be a college entrance exam,
and yet for many students, it is just that because
of its complexity. Researchers have found that
helping students complete the FAFSA improves
the chance they enroll. Driven by the first Promise
cohort, dependent Tennessee students submitted
6.9 percent more FAFSAs in the first half of 2015
than they did in 2014. This was the largest yearover-year growth in the United States.
The first wave of Tennessee Promise students
– 16,291 ultimately enrolled, exceeding early
expectations and pushing the freshman class up by
10 percent – are now in the midst of their second
semester of college. It is too early to assess how
many of those Promise students would not have
been in college today without the program, or how
long they will stay in college because of Tennessee
Promise. But our study on the local initiative that
inspired Tennessee Promise provides cause for
optimism.
Privately-funded Knox Achieves launched in
2008 to support Knox County high school seniors
making a seamless transition into community
colleges. After three years exclusively serving its
home county, Knox Achieves took on the name
Tennessee Achieves – and later, tnAchieves – and
expanded eligibility to seniors in more than twenty
10
Within the largest Tennessee Promise partnering organization, tnAchieves,
FAFSA guidance will shift from mentors to staff beginning with the 2015-2016
wave of Promise applicants.
Tennessee’s Drive to 55: Background, Early Results, and Challenges Lying Ahead
4.3.
CHAPTER 4
Will “Free Community College” Make A Difference in Tennessee?
Early Indicators, continued
counties throughout Middle and East Tennessee.
We tested whether Knox County college
enrollment rates changed after the introduction of
Knox Achieves relative to college enrollment rates
throughout East Tennessee and relative to Knox
County’s own college enrollment rates prior to the
class of 2009. Our major findings:
• The share of Knox County high school
seniors going straight to a community
college (as opposed to work, the military, or
a four-year college) rose 3 – 5 percentage
points after Knox Achieves began.
• College enrollment rates overall rose 2
– 3 percentage points, which means that
most of the change in community college
enrollment was coming from students who
would not have gone to college otherwise.
• Students who expressed interest in Knox
Achieves were 24 percentage points more
likely to go to college than similar students
in other counties (who were not eligible) and
30 percentage points more likely to go to a
community college.
• Participants were also 5 percentage points
less likely to enroll in a four-year college
or university, and this finding was driven
entirely by higher achieving and higher
income students.
Substituting away from four-year universities is
concerning. Researchers have found that starting
4.4.
|
in a two-year college rather than a four-year college
reduces the likelihood of completing a bachelor’s
degree, even though most states have clearly
defined transfer pathways between community
colleges and universities. It is too early to tell how
likely it is that Knox Achieves students will leave
college with an associate’s or bachelor’s degree,
or how quickly they will do so. Early signs are
positive: participants earned 3 – 6 more college
credits (equivalent to 1 – 2 additional classes)
during the two years following high school.
The Carruthers and Fox (2015) study suggests
that the combination of a strong message, financial
aid, and guided mentoring can increase college
enrollment immediately after high school. This
bodes well for Tennessee Promise as well as at least
eleven similar proposals in other states. It is worth
emphasizing that our work on Knox Achieves is,
by necessity, non-experimental. Knox Achieves
participants may have been intent on going to
a community college in ways that we could not
observe. This would tend to inflate our estimates
of the program’s effect on college enrollment.
Another caveat to keep in mind is that we focus
on the classes of 2009 – 2011, who graduated in
the midst of a slow economic recovery when job
prospects were very limited for young people. For
some, a more robust job market today may be a
bigger draw than free community college.
Challenges and Opportunities
Section I documented baseline college
enrollment rates and Section II discussed early
results from a program much like Tennessee
Promise. Here, we build on this context to point to
challenges that may hinder Drive to 55 success as
well as actionable policy opportunities that will get
ahead of these issues.
Changing the Culture of College Aspirations
Janice Gilliam, Northeast State Community
College president, was quoted in a recent Atlantic
article about Tennessee Promise:
“We have a lot of students who do
not think about going to college. Some
of their parents have not even finished
high school. This is a huge step to break
this cycle,” she says. “A lot of them
don’t even know they have talent.”
Local and national media stories about Promise
students support Dr. Gilliam’s impression. “I didn’t
think college was for me” is a common sentiment
among Promise students, followed quickly by their
story about how the promise of free community
college reversed that notion.
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Tennessee’s Drive to 55: Background, Early Results, and Challenges Lying Ahead
Challenges and Opportunities, continued
What many prospective Promise students do
not realize, however, is that in reality the program
provides a modest amount of aid, about $1,000 per
student per year, typically, and that many of them
could pay for community college tuition, fees, and
more with federal and state grants and without
a dollar from Promise. The high rate of federal
Pell grant eligibility is the major reason that the
Promise program can contain its cost to Tennessee
taxpayers.11
One of the fundamental and underemphasized
roles of Tennessee Promise, then, has been to
offer a course correction for capable students who
overestimate the cost of postsecondary education.
The program has proven to be very successful at
reshaping the college conversation that students
have with their families, teachers, and counselors.
Why wait until the senior year of high school to
do this? If every high school freshman was more
aware of the entry requirements for college –
financial and scholastic – they would make more
informed choices about life after high school
graduation. And with a horizon that includes
college, they might make better progress through
high school coursework and ultimately require less
remedial catch-up after enrolling in college.
The widespread popularity of Tennessee
Promise is already affecting the plans of younger
students, but the program could go a step further
and create an official point of contact prior to
senior year. Bridging the information gap that
students and families have about college readiness
will help to raise college enrollment and smooth
transitions into college.
Undermatching
In the same way that there is an information
gap about college costs and admissions broadly
speaking, students are often misinformed about
their prospects at different types of colleges. A
short time before the higher education policy
environment was captivated by free community
college, the issue du jour and focus of a January
2014 White House summit was “undermatching,”
11
This underscores one potential threat to the fiscal impact of Tennessee
Promise. Federal changes to the generosity or scope of the Pell grant program
will have a direct bearing on the typical size of Tennessee Promise grants.
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that is, the idea that high achieving students
are not best served by less selective colleges
and universities. Undermatching can happen
unintentionally if students are not aware of their
admission and financial aid opportunities at more
selective (and usually, costlier) schools. One study
showed that merely providing students with
this information increased the likelihood that
they applied to and enrolled in public flagship
universities or selective private universities,
both of which tend to have more resources for
students and higher graduation rates. Of course,
undermatching may be deliberate on the part
of students who have a strong preference for a
particular school or region despite their prospects
elsewhere.
State policy may also play a role in
undermatching. For some students, Tennessee
Promise is certainly a nudge toward a community
college rather than a four-year college or university.
Although the 2015 freshman class was 10.1
percent greater in Tennessee public postsecondary
institutions overall, large gains in two-year colleges
and technology centers were offset to a degree
by smaller freshman classes in some four-year
universities. The 2015 entering class fell 13 percent
at both the University of Tennessee-Martin and
the University of Tennessee-Chattanooga.
Early indications are that most of the students
whose college choices are changed by Tennessee
Promise are those who are unsure about going to
college at all. For those who decide to start at a
community college rather than a four-year college
or university, however, a long line of research
suggests that their likelihood of completing a
bachelor’s degree is substantially lower. One study
found that failure to transfer after accumulating 60
credits and the loss of credits upon transfer were
two of the chief “choke points” that hindered
community college students from attaining a
bachelor’s degree.
A broad structural solution to the
undermatching problem, therefore, is to make the
transition between two-year community colleges
and four-year colleges and universities seamless
for students who wish to attain a bachelor’s degree
Tennessee’s Drive to 55: Background, Early Results, and Challenges Lying Ahead
4.4.
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CHAPTER 4
Challenges and Opportunities, continued
or greater. Tennessee already has a well-defined
system of transfer pathways which are – in
principle – the most cost-effective way for students
to earn a bachelor’s degree in the state public
postsecondary system. Whether this is true in
practice, however, remains an open question, and
more research and analysis is necessary in order to
determine if there are unnecessary hurdles along
these pathways.
Another actionable policy response to
undermatching is to ensure that Tennessee’s
high school students are at least aware of their
options in two-year and four-year college sectors.
Tennessee already has two opportunities to do so.
Tennessee is one of many states that aspires to
have all high school students take the ACT. Test
takers indicate up to four institutions to receive
their official scores for free – additional score
reports cost at least $12 and involve further action
by students. Official ACT score reports serve as
a formal channel between the ACT and college
admissions offices, but also as a recruiting tool for
colleges. The minor detail of how many schools a
test-taker could list has had a remarkable effect
on the quality of colleges that students ultimately
choose. Tennessee’s ACT test-takers should be
encouraged to send their scores to as many schools
as they wish, and to include schools that they may
incorrectly believe are out of their league.
The second, newer opportunity to make
students aware of their college options is a
systemic part of Tennessee Promise itself. This
initiative provides a new line of communication
between students and state officials, partnering
organizations, and volunteer mentors who all have
the goal of helping more students get to college.
This line of communication should include
information about college options aside from those
institutions eligible to receive Tennessee Promise
students. The federal government has developed a
valuable new tool for doing just that. The College
Scorecard (https://collegescorecard.ed.gov/)
allows prospective college students to quickly
retrieve information describing U.S. colleges and
universities, including costs, typical ACT or SAT
scores of entering students, and even the typical
post-college earnings of former students who
– much like most Tennessee Promise students –
received some form of federal financial aid.
Readiness and Research
Although undermatching is recognized as a
nationwide issue that disproportionately affects
lower-income high-achieving students, a far greater
number of students find themselves overmatched
when they enroll in a community college. In
fact, the majority of two-year college students in
Tennessee enroll unready for the challenges of
postsecondary coursework: 59 percent require
at least one remedial class and only 28 percent
complete a degree within 6 years.12 The first
year of Tennessee Promise has shown that it
is remarkably easy to change the conversation
about going to college, and student take-up in the
program alongside their interest in college has
exceeded expectations at each step. But elevating
college readiness and the likelihood that students
succeed in college will be harder and will require
a closer examination of why students who earn a
high school diploma and aspire to earn a two-year
degree or more nevertheless struggle to do so.
Innovative research is underway to test whether
a dual-credit initiative in Tennessee can help
students catch up before they leave high school.
More research is necessary to identify impactful
programs and policies that raise student persistence
after enrolling. A wide and growing array of such
interventions are already underway, including
fresh approaches to mentoring and college
coaching within Tennessee Promise partnering
organizations, but to date, their effectiveness and
cost-effectiveness are speculative.
Tennessee has a strong history of improving on
speculative hunches regarding educational practice.
In the 1980s, there was considerable uncertainty
about the benefits of smaller elementary classes,
particularly when measured against the necessary
costs of hiring more teachers to lead them.
Determining if smaller classes benefitted students
was complicated then, as now, by the fact that
low student-to-teacher ratios do not arise by
Tennessee Higher Education Fact Book: 2014-2015.
12
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Tennessee’s Drive to 55: Background, Early Results, and Challenges Lying Ahead
Challenges and Opportunities, continued
chance. Smaller classes are often intertwined with
other district and school advantages. Tennessee’s
Project STAR experiment boldly tackled this
problem by randomly assigning kindergarteners
in 79 urban, suburban, and rural schools across
the state to classes with 13 – 17 students or 22 –
25 students. This was one of the first large-scale
field experiments in U.S. education, and despite
imperfect execution, short-term and long-term
results from Project STAR’s forerunning design
inform education stakeholders to this day. A new
generation of experimental research – this time, set
in the state’s community college system – would
go a long way toward identifying which higher
education initiatives are pivotal in improving
student retention and completion, and at what
cost.
The Other 45 Percent
This chapter opened with an overview of the
three branches of the Drive to 55. Aspiring to have
55 percent of working-age Tennesseans hold a
postsecondary credential is a laudable goal and one
that is supported by the best available research on
the returns to higher education as well as the skill
demands of the modern workforce. But a fourth
branch, one that focuses on the other 45 percent,
would provide a strong complement to the Drive
to 55 strategy.
A college degree is not the only path toward
financial security and success for working-age
adults. Some choose to enlist in the military after
high school graduation; others choose to work
in a skilled trade and earn industry certifications
and licensures. There is abundant research on the
payoff to enrolling in and completing college, but
very little is known about the economic returns to
credentials earned in the military or in work, nor
is there a clear understanding of how the state
and even the public higher education system can
support the human capital development and career
paths of individuals with no more than a high
school diploma.
Tennessee has a demonstrated interest in raising
college and career-readiness throughout the state,
and state agencies are well positioned to pursue
and support research on open questions about
workers who stop or fall short of a postsecondary
certificate or degree. What are the factors behind
financial security aside from college completion?
Who succeeds outside of the college track, and
why? What are the individual returns to military
service? To industry licensure? To “sampling” a
college program or enrolling in a MOOC (i.e. a
massive, open online course)? Making headway
on these and related questions will illuminate the
other 45 percent of the Tennessee workforce
and sharpen our understanding of success in and
outside of college.
4.5.Acknowledgements
The Section I analysis and discussion is drawn
from a 2015 CBER report on student progression
through high school and into college (Carruthers
et al., 2015). That study was made possible
by a contract with the Tennessee Consortium
on Research, Evaluation, and Development
(TNCRED) hosted at Vanderbilt University, and
indirectly by Tennessee’s First to the Top award
from the U.S. Department of Education. Portions
of Section II review work by Carruthers and
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2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Fox (2015), which was made possible by data
from tnAchieves, the Tennessee Department of
Education, and the Tennessee Higher Education
Commission. The opinions expressed in this
chapter do not represent those of the U.S.
Department of Education or any Tennessee
agency.
Additionally, we are indebted to Antoniya
Owens and others working with the Harvard
Graduate School of Education Strategic Data
Tennessee’s Drive to 55: Background, Early Results, and Challenges Lying Ahead
4.5.
|
CHAPTER 4
Acknowledgements, continued
Project for many consultations regarding data
processing. Their research on college-going in
Tennessee has greatly informed our own. We
are also grateful to staff members in tnAchieves,
the Tennessee Department of Education, and
the Tennessee Higher Education Commission
for discussions related to data and policy. Jilleah
Welch, Okila Elboeva, James Sheffield, and Marcus
Bansah provided outstanding research assistance.
4.6.References
Anderson, K. (2015). “Tennessee Promise ups
enrollment at Chattanooga State, Cleveland
State: University of Tennessee at Chattanooga
enrollment declines.” Chattanooga Times Free
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Bound, J., Lovenheim, M. F., & Turner, S..
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Carnevale, A. P., and N. Smith. (2012). A Decade
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Carnevale, Anthony P., Nicole Smith, and Jeff
Strohl. (2013). Recovery: Job Growth and Education
Requirements through 2020. State Report. Center
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Carruthers, Celeste K., Donald J. Bruce, William
F. Fox, Matthew N. Murray (2015). Student
Progression in the Wake of First to the Top.
Prepared for the Tennessee Consortium on
Research, Evaluation, and Development.
Center for Business and Economic Research,
University of Tennessee.
Carruthers, C.K. and W.F. Fox (2015) “Aid for
All: College coaching, financial aid, and
postsecondary persistence in Tennessee.”
Forthcoming in Economics of Education Review.
Chetty, R., Friedman, J. N., Hilger, N., Saez, E.,
Schanzenbach, D. W., & Yagan, D. (2011).
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Cook, Nancy. (2015). “The Power of Free
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Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions,
(May 2014), “Ninth Vanderbilt University
Poll.”
Dynarski, D., S. Hemelt, N. Schwartz. (2014).
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Education Sciences, U.S. Department of
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Dynarski, S., J. Scott-Clayton, and M. Wiederspan.
(2013). “Simplifying tax incentives and aid for
college: Progress and prospects.” National
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No. 18707.
Farmer, Blake. (2013). “Average Wage for TN
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Tennessee’s Drive to 55: Background, Early Results, and Challenges Lying Ahead
References, continued
Federal Student Aid (2015). FAFSA® Volume
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Goodman, J., M. Hurwitz, and J. Smith (2015).
“College access, initial college choice and
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House, E. (2015). “Tennessee Promise: Fall
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Hoxby, C. and S. Turner. (2013). Expanding
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Murray, Matthew N., and William F. Fox, Lawrence
M. Kessler, Matthew C. Harris, Vickie C.
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Pallais, A. (2015). Small Differences That Matter:
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Forecast Data
|
APPENDIX A
APPENDIX A: FORECAST DATA
In this section—
Appendix A: Forecast Data
Quarterly
Annual pages 2–25 (2015:4 to 2018:1)
pages 26–40 (2015 to 2025)
Quarterly Forecast Tables
Table 1:
Table 2:
Table 3:
Table 4:
Table 5:
Table 6:
Table 7:
Table 8:
Table 9:
Table 10:
Table 11:
Table 12:
Table 13:
Table 14:
Table 15:
Table 16:
Table 17:
Table 18:
Table 19:
Table 20:
Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted......................................................................................................2
Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted....................................................................................4
Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2009 dollars)...........................................................................5
Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of current dollars)..................................................6
Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)...........................................................................7
Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs).........................................................8
Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)...................................................9
Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)...............................................................................10
Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs).............................................................12
Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs).......................................................13
Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (2009 dollars)......................................................14
Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (2009 dollars)............................................................15
Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars)...................................................17
Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars).........................................................18
Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Not Seasonally Adjusted..................................................................................20
Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted.........................................................................................21
Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2009 dollars).............................................................................................22
Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2009 dollars)....................................................................................................23
Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars)..........................................................................................24
Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars)................................................................................................25
Annual Forecast Tables
Table 1:
Table 2:
Table 3:
Table 4:
Table 5:
Table 6:
Table 7:
Table 8:
Table 9:
Table 10:
Table 11:
Table 12:
Table 13:
Table 14:
Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted....................................................................................................26
Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators.....................................................................................................................27
Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of 2009 dollars)............................................................................................................28
Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of current dollars).........................................................................................................29
Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector (thousands of jobs)..................................................................................................................30
Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs)................................................................................................31
Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs)..........................................................................................32
Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (2009 dollars)...............................................................................................33
Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (current dollars)............................................................................................34
Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate............................................................................................................................35
Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of 2009 dollars)......................................................................................................................................36
Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of current dollars)...................................................................................................................................37
Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of 2009 dollars).....................................................................................................38
Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of current dollars)..................................................................................................40
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
|
1
January 2016
|
Forecast Data
2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
2014
Annual
2015
2016
2017
US GDP (Bil$) SAAR………………………………18060.2 18181.2 18391.4 18614.9 18860.4 19106.9 19318.4 19560.9 19794.5 20000.1 20259.9 17348.1 17951.1 18743.4 19668.4
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………… 3.31
2.71
4.70
4.95
5.38
5.33
4.50
5.12
4.86
4.22
5.30
4.11
3.48
4.41
4.94
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 3.07
3.21
4.20
3.91
4.43
5.09
5.04
5.08
4.95
4.67
4.87
4.11
3.48
4.41
4.94
TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL2009$) SAAR… 254215 257680
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………… 2.55
5.56
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 4.58
4.56
US PERSONAL INCOME (BIL2009$) SAAR…… 14095
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………… 3.76
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 4.41
14224
3.73
3.98
TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL$) SAAR…………278958 282614
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………… 3.84
5.35
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 4.85
4.89
US PERSONAL INCOME (BIL$) SAAR………… 15468
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………… 5.09
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 4.69
15614
3.84
4.40
TN NONFARM JOBS (THOUS)………………… 2874.9 2900.1
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………… 1.97
3.57
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 1.79
2.00
260384 262090 263075 264591 266717 268147 269586 271585 273120
4.26
2.65
1.51
2.33
3.25
2.16
2.16
3.00
2.28
4.40
3.75
3.48
2.68
2.43
2.31
2.48
2.64
2.40
14360
3.88
3.61
14435
2.10
3.36
14500
1.80
2.87
14604
2.90
2.67
14759
4.33
2.78
14879
3.28
3.07
14976
2.65
3.29
15100
3.35
3.40
15230
3.49
3.19
285656 288832 292132 295513 298903 302294 305795 309386 312604
4.37
4.52
4.65
4.71
4.67
4.62
4.71
4.78
4.22
5.27
4.52
4.72
4.56
4.64
4.66
4.68
4.69
4.58
15750
3.52
4.44
15894
3.70
4.04
16073
4.59
3.91
16276
5.14
4.24
16502
5.67
4.77
16722
5.45
5.21
16933
5.14
5.35
17145
5.10
5.34
17390
5.84
5.38
2906.8 2914.1 2921.4 2929.6 2940.2 2950.6 2961.5 2972.7 2982.4
0.92
1.01
1.01
1.13
1.45
1.42
1.49
1.53
1.30
2.10
1.85
1.62
1.02
1.15
1.25
1.37
1.47
1.43
242848 253482 262535 269009
2.28
4.38
3.57
2.47
2.28
4.38
3.57
2.47
13468
2.98
2.98
14036
4.22
4.22
14475
3.12
3.12
14929
3.14
3.14
264965 277316 290533 304095
3.74
4.66
4.77
4.67
3.74
4.66
4.77
4.67
14694
4.45
4.45
15360
4.53
4.53
15998
4.16
4.16
16825
5.17
5.17
2816.1 2870.7 2918.0 2956.2
2.08
1.94
1.65
1.31
2.08
1.94
1.65
1.31
US NONFARM JOBS (MIL)……………………… 142.2
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………… 1.77
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 2.05
142.9
1.86
1.90
143.6
1.87
1.81
144.1
1.45
1.74
144.6
1.39
1.64
145.1
1.32
1.51
145.6
1.42
1.39
145.9
1.01
1.28
146.4
1.20
1.24
146.8
1.28
1.23
147.2
1.14
1.16
139.0
1.93
1.93
141.9
2.10
2.10
144.3
1.67
1.67
146.2
1.29
1.29
TN MFG JOBS (THOUS)………………………… 331.5
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………… 1.00
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 1.74
332.7
1.53
1.17
333.0
0.37
0.60
333.4
0.41
0.78
334.0
0.71
0.75
334.7
0.85
0.58
335.3
0.73
0.67
335.8
0.68
0.74
336.4
0.62
0.72
337.0
0.80
0.71
337.6
0.70
0.70
325.2
2.13
2.13
331.5
1.93
1.93
333.7
0.68
0.68
336.1
0.71
0.71
US MFG JOBS (MIL)……………………………… 12.3
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………… -0.05
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 1.04
12.3
-0.41
0.35
12.3
-0.51
-0.17
12.3
-0.40
-0.34
12.3
0.10
-0.31
12.4
1.94
0.28
12.4
1.36
0.74
12.4
-0.02
0.84
12.4
0.80
1.02
12.5
1.11
0.81
12.5
0.71
0.65
12.2
1.41
1.41
12.3
1.12
1.12
12.3
-0.14
-0.14
12.4
0.85
0.85
TN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)………………
5.7
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
6.6
5.9
5.5
5.4
US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)………………
5.2
5.0
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
6.2
5.3
4.9
4.9
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
Forecast Data
US GDP (Bil2009$) SAAR……………………… 16414.0 16462.5 16586.4 16708.4 16844.5 16983.1 17096.3 17225.3 17338.9 17437.6 17567.0 15961.7 16346.8 16780.6 17274.5
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………… 1.98
1.19
3.04
2.98
3.30
3.33
2.69
3.05
2.66
2.30
3.00
2.43
2.41
2.65
2.94
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 2.15
1.93
2.53
2.29
2.62
3.16
3.07
3.09
2.94
2.68
2.75
2.43
2.41
2.65
2.94
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
History
2015:3 2015:4
APPENDIX A
2
Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted
Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted
History
2015:3 2015:4
January 2016
Forecast Data
2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
2014
Annual
2015
2016
2017
CHAINED PRICE INDEX, GDP
(2009=100.0)……………...........................… 110.0
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………… 1.32
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 0.91
110.4
1.44
1.25
110.9
1.61
1.62
111.4
1.92
1.57
112.0
2.02
1.75
112.5
1.93
1.87
113.0
1.76
1.91
113.6
2.00
1.93
114.2
2.14
1.96
114.7
1.88
1.95
115.3
2.23
2.06
108.7
1.64
1.64
109.8
1.04
1.04
111.7
1.70
1.70
113.9
1.94
1.94
US PERS CONSUMP DEFL (2009=100.0)…… 109.7
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………… 1.28
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 0.27
109.8
0.11
0.41
109.7
-0.34
0.81
110.1
1.57
0.65
110.9
2.75
1.01
111.5
2.18
1.53
111.8
1.28
1.94
112.4
2.10
2.08
113.1
2.43
2.00
113.5
1.69
1.87
114.2
2.28
2.12
109.1
1.43
1.43
109.4
0.29
0.29
110.5
1.00
1.00
112.7
1.97
1.97
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX,
ALL-URBAN (82-84=1.000)…………………… 2.379
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………… 1.58
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 0.14
2.381
0.33
0.43
2.374
-1.09
0.94
2.386
1.95
0.68
2.409
4.03
1.28
2.427
2.94
1.94
2.435
1.44
2.58
2.452
2.69
2.77
2.471
3.24
2.57
2.483
1.98
2.33
2.501
2.95
2.71
2.367
1.61
1.61
2.370
0.13
0.13
2.399
1.21
1.21
2.460
2.56
2.56
3.3
3.3
3.5
3.8
4.0
4.3
4.5
4.8
5.0
5.3
5.5
3.3
3.3
3.9
4.9
FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (% per annum)………
0.137
0.152
0.483
0.787
1.037
1.290
1.533
1.787
2.037
2.290
2.533
0.089
0.131
0.899
1.912
30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE (%)………
4.0
3.9
4.2
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.9
5.0
4.2
3.9
4.4
4.7
TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL2009$)……………… 26228
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………… 9.46
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 7.21
26353
1.91
5.48
26392
0.59
7.62
26580
2.88
3.66
26635
0.83
1.55
26708
1.10
1.35
26795
1.31
1.53
26878
1.24
1.12
26954
1.14
1.20
27127
2.59
1.57
27230
1.52
1.62
97036 102746 106315 107755
3.41
5.88
3.47
1.35
3.41
5.88
3.47
1.35
TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL$)…………………… 28781
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………… 10.84
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 7.49
28903
1.70
5.82
28953
0.70
8.52
29292
4.76
4.43
29577
3.95
2.77
29829
3.45
3.20
30028
2.70
3.71
30301
3.67
3.44
30575
3.67
3.37
30903
4.37
3.60
31167
3.45
3.79
105877 112414 117652 121807
4.89
6.17
4.66
3.53
4.89
6.17
4.66
3.53
TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE, NONFARM
(2009$)…………….......................………..... 43269
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………… -0.11
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 3.46
43666
3.72
3.10
43973
2.85
3.64
44087
1.04
1.86
44059
-0.26
1.82
44111
0.48
1.02
44274
1.48
0.68
44313
0.35
0.51
44347
0.30
0.65
44461
1.04
0.79
44544
0.75
0.61
41961
1.18
1.18
43161
2.86
2.86
44058
2.08
2.08
44349
0.66
0.66
TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE, NONFARM ($)……… 47481
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………… 1.14
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 3.73
47891
3.50
3.44
48241
2.96
4.51
48586
2.89
2.62
48925
2.82
3.04
49266
2.82
2.87
49616
2.87
2.85
49956
2.77
2.82
50303
2.81
2.82
50649
2.78
2.81
50984
2.67
2.76
45782
2.62
2.62
47219
3.14
3.14
48755
3.25
3.25
50131
2.82
2.82
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
|
|
3
APPENDIX A
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
BANK PRIME INTEREST RATE (%)……………
January 2016
|
Forecast Data
2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
2014
Annual
2015
2016
2017
50944
1.16
1.39
50990
0.37
1.14
51270
2.21
1.70
51542
2.14
1.47
51857
2.46
1.79
52178
2.50
2.33
52420
1.87
2.24
52709
2.23
2.26
52950
1.84
2.11
53145
1.48
1.85
53432
2.18
1.93
49964
1.68
1.68
50787
1.65
1.65
51712
1.82
1.82
52807
2.12
2.12
US GDP ($) SAAR…………………………… 55712
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………
5.27
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………
2.95
56053
2.47
2.31
56314
1.87
2.41
56849
3.86
3.36
57423
4.10
3.07
58063
4.53
3.59
58703
4.48
4.24
59233
3.66
4.19
59856
4.27
4.24
60449
4.02
4.11
60954
3.39
3.84
61623
4.46
4.03
54304
3.35
3.35
55771
2.70
2.70
57761
3.57
3.57
60125
4.09
4.09
TN PERSONAL INCOME (2009$) SAAR…… 37949
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………
4.14
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………
3.39
38089
1.49
3.49
38509
4.47
3.47
38812
3.19
3.32
38966
1.60
2.68
39013
0.47
2.42
39137
1.28
1.63
39352
2.21
1.39
39462
1.13
1.27
39574
1.14
1.44
39767
1.96
1.61
39892
1.26
1.37
36816
1.20
1.20
38028
3.29
3.29
38982
2.51
2.51
39539
1.43
1.43
US PERSONAL INCOME (2009$) SAAR…… 43433
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………
2.22
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………
3.50
43746
2.92
3.63
44058
2.89
3.18
44389
3.04
2.76
44530
1.27
2.53
44638
0.97
2.04
44868
2.07
1.84
45254
3.49
1.95
45529
2.45
2.24
45735
1.83
2.46
46021
2.52
2.57
46324
2.66
2.36
42157
2.23
2.23
43609
3.44
3.44
44607
2.29
2.29
45635
2.31
2.31
TN PERSONAL INCOME ($) SAAR………… 41512
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………
6.44
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………
3.65
41797
2.77
3.77
42235
4.26
3.81
42579
3.30
4.18
42942
3.45
3.44
43322
3.58
3.65
43711
3.64
3.50
44100
3.61
3.57
44488
3.56
3.60
44889
3.66
3.62
45302
3.73
3.64
45659
3.19
3.53
40168
2.65
2.65
41603
3.57
3.57
43139
3.69
3.69
44695
3.61
3.61
US PERSONAL INCOME ($) SAAR………… 47512
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………
4.48
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………
3.76
48007
4.24
3.91
48363
3.00
3.60
48684
2.69
3.60
49029
2.87
3.19
49482
3.75
3.07
50005
4.29
3.40
50597
4.82
3.93
51169
4.60
4.37
51711
4.30
4.50
52252
4.26
4.49
52893
5.00
4.54
45996
3.69
3.69
47720
3.75
3.75
49301
3.31
3.31
51434
4.33
4.33
TN TAXABLE SALES (2009$)………………
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………
3852
18.31
6.59
3930
8.33
6.09
3938
0.86
4.38
3934
-0.44
6.51
3952
1.83
2.59
3950
-0.20
0.51
3951
0.07
0.31
3953
0.29
0.49
3956
0.22
0.09
3957
0.13
0.17
3972
1.56
0.55
3977
0.51
0.60
14710
2.32
2.32
15414
4.78
4.78
15786
2.42
2.42
15838
0.33
0.33
TN TAXABLE SALES ($)……………………
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………
4214
20.93
6.86
4312
9.69
6.38
4319
0.65
4.72
4316
-0.33
7.40
4355
3.69
3.35
4386
2.89
1.71
4412
2.40
2.15
4430
1.66
2.66
4459
2.63
2.39
4488
2.63
2.33
4525
3.32
2.56
4552
2.42
2.75
16050
3.78
3.78
16864
5.07
5.07
17469
3.59
3.59
17903
2.48
2.48
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
US GDP (2009$) SAAR………………….…… 50798
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………
3.08
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………
1.95
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
History
2015:2 2015:3
APPENDIX A
4
Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted
Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of 2009 dollars)
History
2015:2 2015:3
January 2016
Forecast Data
2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
2014
Annual
2015
2016
2017
TN PERSONAL INCOME…………...………252618 254215 257680 260384 262090 263075 264591 266717 268147 269586 271585 273120
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 5.23
2.55
5.56
4.26
2.65
1.51
2.33
3.25
2.16
2.16
3.00
2.28
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 4.47
4.58
4.56
4.40
3.75
3.48
2.68
2.43
2.31
2.48
2.64
2.40
242848 253482 262535 269009
2.28
4.38
3.57
2.47
2.28
4.38
3.57
2.47
WAGES AND SALARIES………………124682 125258 126977 128451 129300 129704 130334 131279 131841 132409 133239 133940
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 10.39
1.86
5.60
4.73
2.67
1.25
1.96
2.93
1.72
1.74
2.53
2.12
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 5.48
5.29
4.71
5.60
3.70
3.55
2.64
2.20
1.97
2.09
2.23
2.03
119019 124639 129447 132192
3.26
4.72
3.86
2.12
3.26
4.72
3.86
2.12
27846
1.30
3.13
28123
4.04
3.42
28407
4.10
4.02
28563
2.21
2.91
28654
1.28
2.90
28811
2.21
2.44
29041
3.23
2.23
29208
2.32
2.26
29365
2.16
2.48
29561
2.70
2.60
29715
2.10
2.32
27148
-2.03
-2.03
27759
2.25
2.25
28609
3.06
3.06
29294
2.39
2.39
PROPRIETORS INCOME……………… 33497
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 2.70
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 4.11
33913
5.07
4.93
34440
6.35
4.69
34721
3.31
4.35
35009
3.37
4.52
35158
1.71
3.67
35347
2.17
2.63
35655
3.53
2.69
35796
1.59
2.25
36004
2.34
2.41
36351
3.91
2.84
36635
3.17
2.75
32225
4.11
4.11
33781
4.83
4.83
35059
3.78
3.78
35952
2.55
2.55
RENT, INTEREST, DIVIDENDS……… 35625
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 4.24
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 3.64
35876
2.84
4.16
36259
4.34
4.19
36619
4.03
3.86
36802
2.02
3.30
36926
1.36
2.93
37203
3.03
2.60
37574
4.04
2.61
37857
3.05
2.87
38109
2.69
3.20
38441
3.53
3.33
38738
3.13
3.10
34428
2.64
2.64
35754
3.85
3.85
36888
3.17
3.17
37995
3.00
3.00
TRANSFER PAYMENTS……………… 52135
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… -2.71
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 4.14
52411
2.14
3.72
53076
5.18
4.53
53500
3.23
1.92
53742
1.82
3.08
53907
1.24
2.86
54151
1.82
2.02
54482
2.46
1.83
54732
1.85
1.84
54944
1.56
1.92
55241
2.18
2.01
55415
1.26
1.71
50249
0.91
0.91
52529
4.54
4.54
53825
2.47
2.47
54850
1.90
1.90
LESS: PERS CONT FOR SOC INS… 19797
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 8.83
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 4.39
19829
0.66
4.29
19936
2.16
3.30
20054
2.40
3.47
20071
0.34
1.39
20028
-0.85
1.00
20013
-0.29
0.39
20075
1.24
0.10
20056
-0.37
-0.07
20020
-0.73
-0.04
20027
0.14
0.07
20107
1.62
0.16
19059
2.52
2.52
19736
3.55
3.55
20042
1.55
1.55
20045
0.01
0.01
RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT…………… -1280
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 40.83
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 10.80
-1259
-6.30
9.00
-1259
-0.01
6.60
-1260
0.18
7.22
-1255
-1.45
-1.93
-1247
-2.67
-0.99
-1241
-1.96
-1.48
-1238
-0.99
-1.77
-1231
-2.00
-1.91
-1225
-2.05
-1.75
-1221
-1.30
-1.58
-1216
-1.67
-1.75
-1163
-5.89
-5.89
-1243
6.94
6.94
-1251
0.58
0.58
-1229
-1.75
-1.75
PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME ($)… 37949
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 4.14
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 3.39
38089
1.49
3.49
38509
4.47
3.47
38812
3.19
3.32
38966
1.60
2.68
39013
0.47
2.42
39137
1.28
1.63
39352
2.21
1.39
39462
1.13
1.27
39574
1.14
1.44
39767
1.96
1.61
39892
1.26
1.37
36816
1.20
1.20
38028
3.29
3.29
38982
2.51
2.51
39539
1.43
1.43
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
|
|
5
APPENDIX A
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
OTHER LABOR INCOME……………… 27756
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 6.70
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 2.38
January 2016
|
Forecast Data
2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
2014
Annual
2015
2016
2017
264965 277316 290533 304095
3.74
4.66
4.77
4.67
3.74
4.66
4.77
4.67
WAGES AND SALARIES………………… 136391 137449 139264 140918 142493 144030 145565 147121 148630 150194 151784 153303
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………… 12.83
3.14
5.38
4.84
4.55
4.38
4.33
4.34
4.17
4.27
4.30
4.06
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 5.75
5.57
5.05
6.48
4.47
4.79
4.52
4.40
4.31
4.28
4.27
4.20
129859 136360 143252 149432
4.73
5.01
5.05
4.31
4.73
5.01
5.05
4.31
OTHER LABOR INCOME………………… 30362
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………
9.05
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.64
30556
2.58
3.40
30845
3.83
3.75
31164
4.21
4.89
31477
4.08
3.67
31819
4.41
4.13
32178
4.59
4.32
32545
4.65
4.43
32928
4.78
4.61
33309
4.71
4.68
33676
4.48
4.65
34011
4.04
4.50
29620
-0.63
-0.63
30369
2.53
2.53
31659
4.25
4.25
33114
4.60
4.60
PROPRIETORS INCOME………………… 36642
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………
4.97
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 4.38
37214
6.39
5.21
37772
6.13
5.03
38091
3.42
5.22
38581
5.25
5.29
39041
4.85
4.91
39478
4.55
4.52
39958
4.95
4.90
40355
4.03
4.60
40840
4.90
4.61
41411
5.71
4.90
41932
5.13
4.94
35161
5.60
5.60
36957
5.11
5.11
38798
4.98
4.98
40641
4.75
4.75
RENT, INTEREST, DIVIDENDS………… 38971
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………
6.55
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 3.90
39368
4.13
4.44
39768
4.13
4.53
40173
4.14
4.73
40557
3.88
4.07
41005
4.49
4.16
41551
5.43
4.48
42108
5.47
4.82
42678
5.53
5.23
43228
5.25
5.42
43791
5.32
5.39
44338
5.09
5.30
37563
4.10
4.10
39116
4.13
4.13
40822
4.36
4.36
42951
5.22
5.22
TRANSFER PAYMENTS………………… 57031
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………
-0.56
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 4.40
57512
3.42
3.99
58212
4.96
4.87
58692
3.34
2.77
59225
3.68
3.85
59862
4.37
4.09
60479
4.19
3.89
61056
3.87
4.03
61702
4.30
4.18
62323
4.09
4.11
62930
3.95
4.05
63426
3.19
3.88
54826
2.35
2.35
57466
4.82
4.82
59565
3.65
3.65
62003
4.09
4.09
LESS: PERS CONT FOR SOC INS…… 21656
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………… 11.23
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 4.65
21759
1.93
4.57
21865
1.95
3.63
22001
2.51
4.33
22119
2.17
2.14
22240
2.21
2.21
22352
2.03
2.23
22498
2.63
2.26
22611
2.02
2.22
22709
1.75
2.11
22814
1.87
2.07
23014
3.55
2.29
20795
3.98
3.98
21592
3.83
3.83
22178
2.72
2.72
22658
2.16
2.16
RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT……………… -1400
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………… 43.94
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 11.08
-1382
-5.12
9.29
-1381
-0.22
6.95
-1382
0.29
8.12
-1383
0.35
-1.20
-1384
0.34
0.19
-1386
0.32
0.33
-1387
0.37
0.34
-1388
0.35
0.35
-1389
0.40
0.36
-1391
0.41
0.38
-1392
0.20
0.34
-1268
-4.55
-4.55
-1360
7.24
7.24
-1384
1.73
1.73
-1389
0.36
0.36
PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME ($)…… 41512
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………
6.44
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 3.65
41797
2.77
3.77
42235
4.26
3.81
42579
3.30
4.18
42942
3.45
3.44
43322
3.58
3.65
43711
3.64
3.50
44100
3.61
3.57
44488
3.56
3.60
44889
3.66
3.62
45302
3.73
3.64
45659
3.19
3.53
40168
2.65
2.65
41603
3.57
3.57
43139
3.69
3.69
44695
3.61
3.61
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
TN PERSONAL INCOME…………...……… 276341 278958 282614 285656 288832 292132 295513 298903 302294 305795 309386 312604
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………
7.56
3.84
5.35
4.37
4.52
4.65
4.71
4.67
4.62
4.71
4.78
4.22
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 4.74
4.85
4.89
5.27
4.52
4.72
4.56
4.64
4.66
4.68
4.69
4.58
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
History
2015:2 2015:3
APPENDIX A
6
Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of current dollars)
Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
January 2016
History
2015:3 2015:4
Forecast Data
2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
TOTAL NONFARM……………………………………………… 2869.0 2927.8
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr...........................................
1.90
2.01
2881.0 2919.4 2915.6 2957.6 2914.0 2956.0 2955.7 3001.1 2955.6
2.09
1.86
1.62
1.02
1.14
1.25
1.38
1.47
1.43
2014
Annual
2015
2016
2017
2815.4 2871.3 2918.4 2956.7
2.05
1.98
1.64
1.31
118.0
2.39
120.8
4.43
120.2
2.62
115.0
2.92
121.5
2.99
124.5
3.05
123.9
3.11
118.3
2.84
111.0
2.92
114.6
3.26
117.7
2.66
121.2
3.02
MANUFACTURING…………………………………………… 331.6
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr...........................................
1.71
333.8
1.21
332.1
0.60
333.1
0.77
334.0
0.75
335.8
0.59
334.3
0.68
335.6
0.74
336.4
0.71
338.2
0.71
336.7
0.70
325.2
2.14
331.5
1.93
333.8
0.68
336.1
0.71
DURABLE GOODS………………………………………… 211.8
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr...........................................
2.97
213.4
1.89
213.1
1.40
214.2
1.35
215.1
1.56
216.8
1.58
216.4
1.56
217.7
1.59
218.3
1.51
220.0
1.46
219.6
1.49
205.5
3.36
211.7
2.99
214.8
1.47
218.1
1.53
NONDURABLE GOODS…………………………………… 119.8
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr........................................... -0.44
120.4
0.03
119.0
-0.80
118.9
-0.25
119.0
-0.68
119.0
-1.17
117.9
-0.91
117.9
-0.81
118.1
-0.72
118.2
-0.67
117.0
-0.75
119.7
0.10
119.8
0.10
119.0
-0.73
118.0
-0.77
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES………………… 610.0
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr...........................................
2.95
624.6
3.07
609.7
2.82
618.1
2.52
618.6
1.41
629.7
0.81
615.4
0.93
624.4
1.02
625.9
1.17
637.5
1.24
622.9
1.22
591.6
1.64
607.6
2.70
619.0
1.87
625.8
1.09
WHOLESALE TRADE……………………………………… 127.8
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr...........................................
3.20
130.1
4.41
129.0
3.86
130.2
3.54
130.5
2.16
130.4
0.21
129.5
0.40
131.0
0.59
131.6
0.82
131.7
0.99
130.8
0.96
123.3
1.18
127.0
3.01
130.0
2.42
131.0
0.70
RETAIL TRADE…………………………………………… 328.4
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr...........................................
2.56
337.3
2.59
326.6
2.30
332.4
1.77
332.3
1.19
340.2
0.86
329.8
0.95
335.6
0.97
335.9
1.08
343.9
1.09
333.1
1.02
320.5
1.76
327.9
2.32
332.9
1.52
336.3
1.03
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES……………………… 153.8
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr...........................................
3.59
157.2
3.01
154.0
3.09
155.5
3.27
155.8
1.25
159.1
1.21
156.1
1.33
157.8
1.46
158.3
1.66
161.9
1.78
159.0
1.86
147.9
1.76
152.8
3.28
156.1
2.19
158.5
1.56
INFORMATION………………………………………………… 42.9
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr........................................... -2.06
42.5
-4.35
42.4
-3.91
42.5
-2.78
42.1
-1.70
42.7
0.46
42.6
0.48
42.8
0.47
42.2
0.21
42.8
0.27
42.7
0.21
43.9
-0.30
43.3
-1.37
42.5
-2.01
42.6
0.36
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES…………………………………… 145.4
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr...........................................
1.99
147.9
3.74
147.0
3.49
147.5
2.42
147.9
1.72
148.2
0.18
147.6
0.44
148.5
0.66
149.3
0.92
149.9
1.14
149.1
1.02
141.4
2.41
144.8
2.39
147.6
1.94
148.8
0.79
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES……………… 382.8
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr...........................................
2.28
396.4
2.93
387.2
4.18
392.2
3.02
393.2
2.71
401.9
1.38
394.7
1.93
401.4
2.34
404.2
2.78
414.4
3.12
406.4
2.98
372.4
5.43
382.9
2.82
393.6
2.80
403.7
2.55
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES……………………… 406.6
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr...........................................
1.30
416.5
1.68
414.4
1.68
416.4
1.89
416.4
2.42
424.5
1.91
422.2
1.86
424.2
1.88
424.3
1.88
432.8
1.94
430.1
1.88
402.8
1.09
409.8
1.75
417.9
1.97
425.8
1.89
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY………………………………… 316.7
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr...........................................
3.44
307.5
3.63
299.8
4.23
320.5
2.73
321.5
1.51
312.9
1.76
305.3
1.84
326.6
1.89
327.5
1.89
318.6
1.84
310.8
1.79
296.3
3.64
305.9
3.25
313.7
2.53
319.5
1.87
OTHER SERVICES…………………………………………… 105.4
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr........................................... -0.85
104.2
-0.86
103.2
-0.61
105.2
-0.57
103.6
-1.71
102.6
-1.53
101.5
-1.57
103.6
-1.52
102.5
-1.09
102.1
-0.56
101.5
-0.06
105.9
0.27
104.8
-1.00
103.6
-1.11
102.4
-1.19
GOVERNMENT……………………………………………… 412.0
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr...........................................
0.62
437.2
0.34
433.5
0.42
425.8
0.77
417.4
1.30
439.1
0.44
435.3
0.41
427.4
0.39
419.0
0.39
440.9
0.40
437.1
0.41
424.8
-0.07
425.9
0.26
429.0
0.73
430.7
0.40
47.6
0.71
47.8
0.84
46.5
-1.74
45.9
-3.65
46.8
-1.53
47.4
-0.83
46.0
-1.17
45.2
-1.45
46.1
-1.54
46.6
-1.56
45.2
-1.63
48.1
-2.65
47.6
-1.16
46.7
-1.93
46.0
-1.43
STATE & LOCAL…………………………………………… 364.4
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr...........................................
0.61
389.4
0.27
387.0
0.70
379.9
1.34
370.6
1.68
391.8
0.60
389.4
0.61
382.2
0.62
372.9
0.62
394.3
0.64
391.9
0.66
376.6
0.27
378.3
0.44
382.3
1.07
384.7
0.62
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN………………………………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr...........................................
|
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
7
APPENDIX A
111.8
1.10
|
117.1
1.91
Forecast Data
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING & CONSTRUCTION… 115.7
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr...........................................
2.21
January 2016
|
TOTAL DURABLE GOODS…………………………… 211.8
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 2.97
2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
2014
Annual
2015
2016
2017
213.1
1.40
214.2
1.35
215.1
1.56
216.8
1.58
216.4
1.56
217.7
1.59
218.3
1.51
220.0
1.46
219.6
1.49
205.5
3.36
211.7
2.99
214.8
1.47
218.1
1.53
11.8
3.22
11.8
2.92
11.6
2.23
11.8
1.82
12.0
1.87
12.0
1.68
11.8
1.66
12.0
1.60
12.2
1.51
12.1
1.44
11.9
1.43
11.2
3.45
11.6
3.41
11.8
1.90
12.0
1.55
NONMETALLIC MINERAL PRODUCTS………… 11.7
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… -2.49
11.7
-1.68
11.5
-1.37
11.6
-0.85
11.7
-0.61
11.6
-1.10
11.4
-0.99
11.5
-1.00
11.5
-0.99
11.5
-0.90
11.3
-0.83
11.9
-1.92
11.7
-1.68
11.6
-0.98
11.5
-0.97
WOOD PRODUCTS………………………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………
PRIMARY METALS………….……………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………
10.2
1.32
10.4
2.30
10.3
1.29
10.4
1.26
10.4
1.34
10.4
0.41
10.4
0.50
10.4
0.57
10.4
0.67
10.5
0.83
10.5
0.87
10.1
1.00
10.3
1.90
10.4
1.07
10.4
0.64
FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS……………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………
35.1
2.13
35.1
1.35
35.1
-0.56
35.3
0.45
35.2
0.29
35.4
0.98
35.4
0.86
35.5
0.53
35.4
0.46
35.5
0.03
35.4
0.02
34.4
1.35
35.2
2.28
35.3
0.29
35.4
0.47
MACHINERY………………………………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………
26.2
2.21
25.7
-2.90
26.2
-0.45
26.4
-1.36
26.0
-0.56
25.9
0.88
26.5
0.96
26.6
1.02
26.3
1.05
26.2
1.13
26.8
1.21
25.7
1.41
26.2
1.98
26.1
-0.38
26.4
1.04
COMPUTER & ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS……
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………
5.1
1.99
5.2
3.33
5.1
2.73
5.1
1.46
5.1
-0.99
5.0
-2.94
5.0
-2.71
5.0
-2.66
4.9
-2.61
4.9
-2.57
4.9
-2.46
5.0
-3.67
5.1
1.16
5.1
0.04
5.0
-2.64
ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT, APPLIANCES
& COMPONENTS…………..……………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………
20.0
2.39
20.1
2.55
20.0
1.44
20.1
1.75
20.4
2.00
20.4
1.48
20.3
1.38
20.4
1.31
20.6
1.22
20.7
1.52
20.6
1.52
19.4
4.49
19.9
2.58
20.2
1.67
20.5
1.36
TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………
67.4
5.76
69.1
4.38
68.9
3.70
69.1
3.36
70.0
3.91
71.8
3.85
71.5
3.68
71.8
3.90
72.5
3.63
74.3
3.47
74.0
3.61
64.0
7.55
67.5
5.39
70.0
3.71
72.5
3.67
FURNITURE………………………………………… 9.2
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 1.85
9.2
1.47
9.2
0.87
9.3
1.28
9.2
0.43
9.2
0.17
9.3
0.88
9.4
1.21
9.3
0.92
9.3
0.62
9.3
-0.04
9.1
3.52
9.2
1.38
9.3
0.68
9.3
0.91
MISCELLANEOUS DURABLE GOODS…………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………
15.2
1.34
15.0
0.54
15.1
0.20
15.1
0.23
15.0
-0.89
14.9
-0.70
15.0
-0.72
15.1
-0.43
15.0
-0.10
14.9
-0.13
14.7
1.26
15.1
2.38
15.1
0.02
15.0
-0.49
15.1
1.34
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
213.4
1.89
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
History
2015:3 2015:4
APPENDIX A
8
Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
History
2015:3 2015:4
TOTAL NONDURABLE GOODS…………………… 119.8
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… -0.44
January 2016
2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
2014
Annual
2015
2016
2017
120.4
0.03
119.0
-0.80
118.9
-0.25
119.0
-0.68
119.0
-1.17
117.9
-0.91
117.9
-0.81
118.1
-0.72
118.2
-0.67
117.0
-0.75
119.7
0.10
119.8
0.10
119.0
-0.73
118.0
-0.77
33.0
0.41
33.1
0.20
32.8
0.05
32.7
0.31
33.0
0.04
33.2
0.09
32.8
0.12
32.8
0.11
33.1
0.12
33.2
0.12
32.9
0.09
32.7
0.95
32.9
0.54
32.9
0.12
33.0
0.12
BEVERAGE & TOBACCO………………………… 5.5
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 0.00
5.5
1.85
5.4
0.90
5.5
0.67
5.5
0.02
5.4
-1.37
5.4
-1.14
5.4
-1.05
5.4
-0.94
5.4
-0.83
5.3
-0.85
5.4
1.88
5.5
0.77
5.5
0.05
5.4
-0.99
TEXTILE MILLS, TEXTILE MILL
PRODUCTS & APPAREL………………………
9.6
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… -3.68
9.6
-2.71
9.3
-3.44
9.2
-3.59
9.2
-4.21
9.1
-5.12
8.8
-4.80
8.8
-4.93
8.7
-5.09
8.6
-5.17
8.4
-5.25
10.0
-4.54
9.6
-4.09
9.2
-4.09
8.7
-5.00
PAPER……………………………………………… 14.4
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… -2.92
14.3
-2.06
13.9
-2.01
14.0
-1.68
14.1
-2.34
13.8
-3.09
13.6
-2.74
13.7
-2.51
13.7
-2.28
13.5
-2.05
13.3
-2.07
14.6
-0.51
14.3
-2.22
14.0
-2.28
13.6
-2.39
PRINTING & RELATED SUPPORT……………… 9.0
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… -4.61
8.9
-4.63
8.8
-3.88
8.9
-2.24
8.8
-1.79
8.8
-1.03
8.8
-0.43
8.8
-0.52
8.7
-0.65
8.8
-0.76
8.7
-1.43
9.4
-1.73
9.0
-4.32
8.8
-2.25
8.8
-0.59
CHEMICALS………………………………………… 25.3
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… -0.79
25.3
-0.39
25.1
-0.72
25.0
-0.59
25.0
-1.21
24.9
-1.57
24.8
-1.32
24.7
-1.16
24.7
-0.99
24.6
-0.90
24.5
-0.93
25.3
2.12
25.2
-0.39
25.0
-1.02
24.7
-1.09
21.3
1.59
21.5
1.74
21.6
1.56
21.6
2.55
21.6
1.54
21.7
0.86
21.8
1.20
21.9
1.47
21.9
1.64
22.1
1.73
22.2
1.62
20.7
2.40
21.3
2.90
21.6
1.62
21.9
1.51
MISCELLANEOUS NONDURABLE GOODS…… 1.8
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 30.95
2.2
36.73
2.0
-8.97
2.0
-1.72
1.9
2.50
2.1
-5.88
1.9
-5.70
1.9
-5.47
1.8
-5.62
2.0
-5.78
1.8
-6.18
1.5
-27.45
2.1
35.68
2.0
-3.84
1.9
-5.64
FOOD………………………………………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………
PLASTICS & RUBBER……………………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
|
|
9
APPENDIX A
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
January 2016
|
TOTAL NONFARM………………………………… 2874.8 2900.1
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 1.94
3.57
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
1.79
2.00
2906.8 2914.1 2921.4 2929.6 2940.2 2950.6 2961.5 2972.7 2982.4
0.92
1.01
1.01
1.13
1.45
1.42
1.49
1.53
1.30
2.10
1.85
1.62
1.02
1.15
1.25
1.37
1.47
1.43
2014
2015
Annual
2016
2017
2816.1 2870.7 2918.0 2956.2
2.08
1.94
1.65
1.31
2.08
1.94
1.65
1.31
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING
AND CONSTRUCTION……………………… 112.9
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -5.03
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
2.08
115.7
10.55
1.91
116.3
1.87
1.10
117.1
2.78
2.39
117.9
2.76
4.43
118.8
3.09
2.62
119.7
3.07
2.92
120.6
3.04
2.99
121.5
3.02
3.05
122.5
3.33
3.11
123.1
1.97
2.84
110.9
2.87
2.87
114.5
3.20
3.20
117.5
2.63
2.63
121.0
3.02
3.02
MANUFACTURING……………………………… 331.5
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 0.81
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
1.74
332.7
1.53
1.17
333.0
0.37
0.60
333.4
0.41
0.78
334.0
0.71
0.75
334.7
0.85
0.58
335.3
0.73
0.67
335.8
0.68
0.74
336.4
0.62
0.72
337.0
0.80
0.71
337.6
0.70
0.70
325.2
2.13
2.13
331.5
1.93
1.93
333.7
0.68
0.68
336.1
0.71
0.71
DURABLE GOODS…………………………… 211.9
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 0.92
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
3.00
212.8
1.86
1.86
213.6
1.39
1.40
214.2
1.26
1.36
215.2
1.74
1.56
216.2
1.89
1.57
216.9
1.35
1.56
217.7
1.42
1.60
218.4
1.39
1.51
219.3
1.67
1.46
220.1
1.49
1.49
205.5
3.36
3.36
211.7
2.99
2.99
214.8
1.47
1.47
218.1
1.53
1.53
NONDURABLE GOODS…………………… 119.6
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 0.61
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.42
119.9
0.95
-0.02
119.4
-1.42
-0.81
119.1
-1.10
-0.25
118.8
-1.11
-0.68
118.5
-1.03
-1.17
118.4
-0.40
-0.91
118.2
-0.67
-0.80
117.9
-0.78
-0.72
117.7
-0.79
-0.66
117.5
-0.76
-0.75
119.7
0.09
0.09
119.8
0.10
0.10
119.0
-0.72
-0.72
118.0
-0.77
-0.77
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES…… 610.9
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 5.27
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
2.85
615.9
3.34
3.06
616.9
0.65
2.82
618.3
0.87
2.52
619.5
0.80
1.41
620.9
0.94
0.81
622.7
1.13
0.93
624.6
1.21
1.02
626.8
1.42
1.17
628.7
1.22
1.24
630.3
1.03
1.22
592.1
1.71
1.71
607.5
2.60
2.60
618.9
1.88
1.88
625.7
1.09
1.09
WHOLESALE TRADE……………………… 127.3
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 5.75
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
3.02
129.9
8.42
4.42
130.0
0.09
3.86
130.0
0.16
3.54
130.1
0.21
2.16
130.2
0.39
0.21
130.5
0.84
0.40
130.8
0.93
0.59
131.1
1.12
0.82
131.5
1.07
0.99
131.7
0.74
0.96
123.3
1.22
1.22
127.0
2.99
2.99
130.1
2.42
2.42
131.0
0.70
0.70
RETAIL TRADE……………………………… 329.3
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 3.22
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
2.31
331.1
2.25
2.56
331.7
0.67
2.30
332.5
0.98
1.77
333.2
0.87
1.19
334.0
0.94
0.86
334.8
1.02
0.95
335.7
1.07
0.97
336.8
1.30
1.08
337.6
0.98
1.09
338.3
0.73
1.02
320.8
1.86
1.86
327.8
2.19
2.19
332.8
1.53
1.53
336.3
1.03
1.03
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES………… 154.3
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 9.42
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
3.86
154.9
1.56
3.02
155.3
1.09
3.09
155.8
1.22
3.27
156.2
1.14
1.25
156.7
1.38
1.21
157.4
1.59
1.33
158.0
1.73
1.46
158.8
1.94
1.66
159.5
1.86
1.78
160.3
1.92
1.86
148.0
1.81
1.81
152.7
3.15
3.15
156.0
2.19
2.19
158.4
1.56
1.56
INFORMATION…………………………………
43.2
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -3.91
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.52
42.4
-7.78
-4.36
42.4
0.39
-3.91
42.5
0.42
-2.78
42.5
0.45
-1.70
42.6
0.58
0.46
42.6
0.49
0.48
42.7
0.37
0.47
42.6
-0.60
0.21
42.7
0.81
0.27
42.7
0.26
0.21
43.9
-0.36
-0.36
43.4
-1.27
-1.27
42.5
-2.01
-2.01
42.6
0.36
0.36
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES……………………… 145.1
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 2.90
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
2.06
147.5
6.68
3.68
147.5 147.6 147.6 147.8 148.2
0.04
0.21
0.12
0.35
1.07
3.49
2.42
1.72
0.18
0.44
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
148.6
1.10
0.66
149.0
1.16
0.92
149.4
1.22
1.14
149.7
0.59
1.02
141.5
2.41
2.41
144.8
2.34
2.34
147.6
1.94
1.94
148.8
0.79
0.79
Forecast Data
2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
History
2015:3 2015:4
APPENDIX A
10
Table 8: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
Table 8: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
History
2015:3 2015:4
January 2016
2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
2014
2015
Annual
2016
2017
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES… 384.0
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 2.65
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
2.13
390.7
7.20
2.95
391.8
1.09
4.18
393.0
1.27
3.02
394.4
1.41
2.71
396.1
1.74
1.38
399.3
3.32
1.93
402.2
2.92
2.34
405.4
3.16
2.78
408.4
3.08
3.12
411.2
2.75
2.98
372.6
5.54
5.54
383.0
2.80
2.80
393.8
2.81
2.81
403.8
2.55
2.55
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………… 409.0
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -0.26
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
1.41
412.8
3.84
1.67
415.0
2.09
1.68
417.0
1.94
1.89
418.9
1.84
2.42
420.7
1.78
1.91
422.7
1.89
1.86
424.8
2.01
1.88
426.8
1.85
1.88
428.9
2.02
1.94
430.7
1.64
1.88
402.6
1.05
1.05
409.8
1.78
1.78
417.9
1.98
1.98
425.8
1.89
1.89
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY…………………… 309.6
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 6.82
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
3.73
310.3
0.95
3.62
311.6
1.67
4.23
312.9
1.59
2.73
314.3
1.85
1.51
315.8
1.93
1.76
317.4
1.99
1.84
318.8
1.78
1.89
320.2
1.86
1.89
321.6
1.74
1.84
323.1
1.80
1.79
296.1
3.62
3.62
305.9
3.28
3.28
313.6
2.54
2.54
319.5
1.86
1.86
OTHER SERVICES……………………………… 105.2
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 2.71
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.47
104.6
-2.51
-0.85
104.2
-1.31
-0.61
103.9
-1.07
-0.57
103.4
-1.95
-1.71
103.0
-1.79
-1.53
102.6
-1.47
-1.57
102.4
-0.87
-1.52
102.3
-0.22
-1.09
102.4
0.34
-0.56
102.5
0.51
-0.06
105.8
0.21
0.21
104.8
-0.97
-0.97
103.6
-1.11
-1.11
102.4
-1.19
-1.19
GOVERNMENT………………………………… 423.5
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -1.68
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.18
427.5
3.83
0.32
428.0
0.54
0.42
428.6
0.49
0.77
429.0
0.39
1.30
429.4
0.36
0.44
429.8
0.42
0.41
430.2
0.40
0.39
430.7
0.39
0.39
431.1
0.39
0.40
431.6
0.46
0.41
425.2
0.00
0.00
425.6
0.10
0.10
428.7
0.73
0.73
430.4
0.40
0.40
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN………………………… 47.2
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -9.56
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.19
46.6
-4.45
0.58
46.6
0.07
-1.74
46.6
-0.33
-3.65
46.4
-1.34
-1.53
46.2
-1.70
-0.83
46.1
-1.33
-1.17
45.9
-1.45
-1.45
45.7
-1.66
-1.54
45.5
-1.80
-1.56
45.3
-1.62
-1.63
47.9
-3.33
-3.33
47.4
-1.06
-1.06
46.5
-1.95
-1.95
45.8
-1.43
-1.43
STATE & LOCAL……………………………… 376.3
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -0.64
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.05
380.8
4.91
0.29
381.4
0.60
0.70
382.0
0.59
1.34
382.5
0.61
1.66
383.1
0.61
0.60
383.7
0.63
0.61
384.3
0.63
0.62
384.9
0.63
0.63
385.6
0.65
0.64
386.2
0.71
0.66
377.3
0.44
0.44
378.2
0.24
0.24
382.3
1.07
1.07
384.6
0.62
0.62
STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY (% )………
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.01
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
|
|
11
APPENDIX A
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
|
2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
2014
Annual
2015
2016
2017
212.8
1.86
1.86
213.6
1.39
1.40
214.2
1.26
1.36
215.2
1.74
1.56
216.2
1.89
1.57
216.9
1.35
1.56
217.7
1.42
1.60
218.4
1.39
1.51
219.3
1.67
1.46
220.1
1.49
1.49
205.5
3.36
3.36
211.7
2.99
2.99
214.8
1.47
1.47
218.1
1.53
1.53
WOOD PRODUCTS………………………
11.6
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 1.54
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 3.26
11.7
2.39
2.90
11.8
1.63
2.23
11.8
1.71
1.82
11.9
1.75
1.87
11.9
1.62
1.68
12.0
1.57
1.66
12.0
1.45
1.60
12.0
1.40
1.51
12.1
1.36
1.45
12.1
1.50
1.43
11.2
3.44
3.44
11.6
3.40
3.40
11.8
1.90
1.90
12.0
1.55
1.55
NONMETALLIC MINERALS……………… 11.6
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… -2.02
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… -2.47
11.7
0.98
-1.71
11.6
-1.31
-1.37
11.6
-1.03
-0.85
11.6
-1.07
-0.61
11.5
-0.98
-1.10
11.5
-0.89
-0.99
11.5
-1.07
-1.00
11.5
-1.02
-0.99
11.4
-0.60
-0.90
11.4
-0.62
-0.83
11.9
-1.94
-1.94
11.7
-1.68
-1.68
11.6
-0.98
-0.98
11.5
-0.97
-0.97
PRIMARY METALS………….……………
10.2
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 0.18
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 1.31
10.3
4.01
2.31
10.4
0.38
1.29
10.4
0.54
1.26
10.4
0.49
1.34
10.4
0.22
0.41
10.4
0.77
0.50
10.4
0.82
0.57
10.4
0.86
0.67
10.5
0.87
0.83
10.5
0.92
0.87
10.1
0.99
0.99
10.3
1.90
1.90
10.4
1.07
1.07
10.4
0.64
0.64
FABRICATED METALS…………………..
35.1
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 0.99
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 2.16
35.1
-0.41
1.35
35.1
0.49
-0.56
35.2
0.73
0.45
35.2
0.37
0.29
35.4
2.35
0.98
35.4
0.00
0.86
35.4
-0.58
0.53
35.4
0.11
0.46
35.5
0.61
0.03
35.4
-0.06
0.02
34.4
1.35
1.35
35.2
2.28
2.28
35.3
0.29
0.29
35.4
0.47
0.47
MACHINERY………………………………… 26.3
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… -2.31
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 2.23
26.0
-4.64
-2.95
26.0
0.73
-0.45
26.1
0.89
-1.36
26.2
0.91
-0.56
26.2
0.98
0.88
26.3
1.07
0.96
26.4
1.11
1.02
26.4
1.05
1.05
26.5
1.29
1.13
26.6
1.38
1.21
25.7
1.44
1.44
26.2
1.94
1.94
26.1
-0.38
-0.38
26.4
1.04
1.04
COMPUTERS & ELECTRONICS…………
5.1
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 7.23
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 1.96
5.2
5.23
3.37
5.1
-3.27
2.73
5.1
-2.91
1.46
5.1
-2.76
-0.99
5.0
-2.83
-2.94
5.0
-2.35
-2.71
5.0
-2.68
-2.66
4.9
-2.59
-2.61
4.9
-2.66
-2.57
4.9
-1.92
-2.46
5.0
-3.66
-3.66
5.1
1.16
1.16
5.1
0.03
0.03
5.0
-2.64
-2.64
ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT, APPLIANCES
& COMPONENTS…………..……………
19.9
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 0.95
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 2.40
20.0
2.43
2.54
20.1
1.86
1.44
20.2
1.78
1.75
20.3
1.92
2.00
20.3
0.35
1.48
20.4
1.48
1.38
20.5
1.49
1.31
20.5
1.57
1.22
20.6
1.54
1.52
20.7
1.50
1.52
19.4
4.49
4.49
19.9
2.58
2.58
20.2
1.67
1.67
20.5
1.36
1.36
TRANSPORTATION EQUIP……………… 67.6
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 2.18
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 5.80
68.4
4.45
4.35
69.0
3.76
3.70
69.5
3.05
3.36
70.3
4.40
3.91
71.0
4.21
3.85
71.5
3.05
3.68
72.2
3.96
3.90
72.8
3.29
3.63
73.5
3.58
3.47
74.1
3.60
3.61
64.0
7.55
7.55
67.5
5.39
5.39
70.0
3.71
3.71
72.5
3.67
3.67
FURNITURE…………………………………
9.2
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 4.64
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 1.94
9.3
2.60
1.41
9.3
-1.00
0.87
9.2
-1.01
1.28
9.3
1.16
0.43
9.3
1.55
0.17
9.3
1.85
0.88
9.3
0.27
1.21
9.3
0.03
0.92
9.4
0.33
0.62
9.3
-0.82
-0.04
9.1
3.50
3.50
9.2
1.38
1.38
9.3
0.68
0.68
9.3
0.91
0.91
MISCELLANEOUS DURABLES…………
15.0
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… -1.09
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 1.32
15.2
3.79
1.34
15.1
-0.92
0.54
15.1
-0.87
0.20
15.0
-1.01
0.23
15.0
-0.75
-0.89
15.0
-0.17
-0.70
15.0
-0.93
-0.72
15.0
0.12
-0.43
15.0
0.60
-0.10
15.0
-0.31
-0.13
14.7
1.26
1.26
15.1
2.39
2.39
15.1
0.02
0.02
15.0
-0.49
-0.49
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
TOTAL DURABLE GOODS…………………… 211.9
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 0.92
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 3.00
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
History
2015:3 2015:4
January 2016
APPENDIX A
12
Table 9: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
Table 10: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
History
2015:3 2015:4
January 2016
2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
2014
Annual
2015
2016
2017
TOTAL NONDURABLE GOODS………………… 119.6
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………
0.61
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -0.42
119.9
0.95
-0.02
119.4
-1.42
-0.81
119.1
-1.10
-0.25
118.8
-1.11
-0.68
118.5
-1.03
-1.17
118.4
-0.40
-0.91
118.2
-0.67
-0.80
117.9
-0.78
-0.72
117.7
-0.79
-0.66
117.5
-0.76
-0.75
119.7
0.09
0.09
119.8
0.10
0.10
119.0
-0.72
-0.72
118.0
-0.77
-0.77
FOOD……………………………………………… 32.9
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………
1.18
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 0.40
32.9
-0.09
0.19
32.9
0.04
0.05
32.9
0.12
0.31
32.9
0.09
0.04
32.9
0.10
0.09
32.9
0.17
0.12
33.0
0.10
0.11
33.0
0.12
0.12
33.0
0.10
0.12
33.0
0.06
0.09
32.7
0.95
0.95
32.9
0.54
0.54
32.9
0.12
0.12
33.0
0.12
0.12
5.4
1.25
0.03
5.5
4.48
1.87
5.5
-1.72
0.90
5.5
-1.19
0.67
5.4
-1.37
0.02
5.4
-1.21
-1.37
5.4
-0.79
-1.14
5.4
-0.84
-1.05
5.4
-0.90
-0.94
5.4
-0.77
-0.83
5.4
-0.87
-0.85
5.4
1.89
1.89
5.5
0.77
0.77
5.5
0.05
0.05
5.4
-0.99
-0.99
TEXTILE MILLS, TEXTILE MILL
PRODUCTS & APPAREL……………………
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
9.5
-2.36
-3.66
9.5
-1.35
-2.76
9.4
-5.64
-3.44
9.2
-4.97
-3.59
9.1
-4.83
-4.21
9.0
-5.02
-5.12
8.9
-4.39
-4.80
8.8
-5.49
-4.93
8.7
-5.45
-5.09
8.6
-5.35
-5.17
8.4
-4.72
-5.25
10.0
-4.53
-4.53
9.6
-4.10
-4.10
9.2
-4.09
-4.09
8.7
-5.00
-5.00
PAPER……………………………………………
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
14.2
-0.30
-2.89
14.3
0.24
-2.07
14.1
-3.55
-2.01
14.0
-3.07
-1.68
13.9
-2.93
-2.34
13.8
-2.81
-3.09
13.7
-2.13
-2.74
13.7
-2.16
-2.51
13.6
-2.03
-2.28
13.5
-1.88
-2.05
13.5
-2.20
-2.07
14.6
-0.53
-0.53
14.3
-2.23
-2.23
14.0
-2.28
-2.28
13.6
-2.40
-2.40
PRINTING & RELATED SUPPORT……………
9.0
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -2.85
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -4.61
8.9
-4.00
-4.63
8.9
-1.19
-3.88
8.9
-0.88
-2.24
8.8
-1.05
-1.79
8.8
-1.01
-1.03
8.8
1.24
-0.43
8.8
-1.23
-0.52
8.8
-1.59
-0.65
8.7
-1.41
-0.76
8.7
-1.47
-1.43
9.5
-1.73
-1.73
9.0
-4.32
-4.32
8.8
-2.25
-2.25
8.8
-0.59
-0.59
CHEMICALS……………………………………… 25.2
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………
0.95
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -0.79
25.2
-0.01
-0.40
25.1
-1.79
-0.72
25.0
-1.47
-0.59
24.9
-1.55
-1.21
24.8
-1.48
-1.57
24.8
-0.79
-1.32
24.7
-0.81
-1.16
24.7
-0.89
-0.99
24.6
-1.10
-0.90
24.5
-0.91
-0.93
25.3
2.12
2.12
25.2
-0.40
-0.40
25.0
-1.02
-1.02
24.7
-1.09
-1.09
21.3
5.00
1.52
21.5
3.86
1.75
21.5
0.54
1.56
21.6
0.87
2.55
21.6
0.91
1.54
21.7
1.14
0.86
21.8
1.88
1.20
21.9
1.94
1.47
22.0
1.60
1.64
22.1
1.50
1.73
22.1
1.45
1.62
20.7
2.39
2.39
21.3
2.90
2.90
21.6
1.62
1.62
21.9
1.51
1.51
MISCELLANEOUS NONDURABLE GOODS…
1.9
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -20.70
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 31.50
2.1
32.68
35.85
2.1
-5.85
-8.97
2.0
-5.80
-1.72
2.0
-6.21
2.50
2.0
-5.65
-5.88
1.9
-5.14
-5.70
1.9
-4.86
-5.47
1.9
-6.83
-5.62
1.9
-6.27
-5.78
1.8
-6.76
-6.18
1.5
-27.54
-27.54
2.1
35.66
35.66
2.0
-3.74
-3.74
1.9
-5.64
-5.64
PLASTICS & RUBBER…………………………
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
|
|
13
APPENDIX A
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
BEVERAGE & TOBACCO………………………
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
|
January 2016
Forecast Data
2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
2014
Annual
2015
2016
2017
43357
3.35
43262
3.11
44366
3.66
44004
1.86
44145
1.82
43704
1.02
44672
0.69
44229
0.51
44432
0.65
44050
0.79
44948
0.62
41973
1.20
43155
2.82
44055
2.08
44346
0.66
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING
AND CONSTRUCTION………………………… 49672
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 5.75
49815
7.83
50771
8.26
53788
8.91
51404
3.49
50503
1.38
51210
0.86
54121
0.62
51693
0.56
50885
0.76
51719
0.99
54548
0.79
47206
3.20
49911
5.73
51726
3.64
52104
0.73
MANUFACTURING……………………………… 52689
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.34
53229
3.83
53766
2.90
54469
8.57
54520
3.48
54549
2.48
54551
1.46
55048
1.06
54976
0.84
55037
0.89
55097
1.00
55471
0.77
51605
1.40
52464
1.66
54522
3.92
55039
0.95
DURABLE GOODS…………………………… 51051
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 1.14
51364
2.27
51833
0.94
52365
6.57
52332
2.51
52446
2.11
52380
1.06
52818
0.86
52719
0.74
52904
0.87
52935
1.06
53270
0.86
50494
2.00
50846
0.70
52381
3.02
52844
0.88
NONDURABLE GOODS……………………… 55594
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.47
56527
6.54
57212
6.30
58245
12.05
58469
5.17
58347
3.22
58511
2.27
59141
1.54
59144
1.15
58974
1.07
59130
1.06
59602
0.78
53509
0.60
55329
3.40
58393
5.54
59097
1.21
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES…… 39131
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.27
39138
1.64
38861
-1.11
40211
3.11
39910
1.99
39960
2.10
39444
1.50
40675
1.16
40295
0.96
40415
1.14
39935
1.24
41108
1.06
38748
1.37
39032
0.73
39881
2.18
40330
1.13
WHOLESALE TRADE………………………… 59725
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.68
59131
0.33
59738
-0.83
60835
3.37
60521
1.33
60464
2.25
60701
1.61
61509
1.11
61066
0.90
61030
0.94
61304
0.99
62048
0.88
59172
2.55
59361
0.32
60630
2.14
61227
0.98
RETAIL TRADE…………………………………26647
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.10
26986
2.78
26637
-1.86
27743
4.85
27438
2.97
27487
1.86
26987
1.32
28040
1.07
27689
0.91
27813
1.19
27328
1.26
28331
1.04
26510
1.42
26683
0.65
27414
2.74
27718
1.11
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES…………… 49003
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.02
48479
1.23
48009
-0.78
49534
0.50
49402
0.81
49432
1.97
48657
1.35
50055
1.05
49825
0.86
49967
1.08
49273
1.27
50570
1.03
48242
0.33
48694
0.94
49256
1.15
49780
1.06
INFORMATION…………………………………… 56909
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 0.61
58773
3.84
58666
9.75
59235
3.89
59304
4.21
59875
1.88
59247
0.99
59567
0.56
59588
0.48
60342
0.78
59859
1.03
60058
0.82
55891
3.32
57841
3.49
59416
2.72
59839
0.71
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES………………………… 64660
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 3.13
64744
3.67
65463
2.35
66457
4.28
66508
2.86
66344
2.47
66428
1.47
67131
1.01
67038
0.80
66907
0.85
67046
0.93
67566
0.65
63255
2.66
64649
2.20
66434
2.76
67030
0.90
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES… 52018
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 8.87
50679
6.59
50169
6.89
51860
0.70
51482
-1.03
51502
1.62
50657
0.97
52194
0.64
51733
0.49
51819
0.62
51036
0.75
52507
0.60
47659
-1.55
51092
7.20
51375
0.55
51695
0.62
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………… 43759
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.31
44501
3.40
44188
4.28
44904
2.53
44998
2.83
45161
1.48
44551
0.82
45182
0.62
45206
0.46
45455
0.65
44910
0.81
45484
0.67
42791
0.55
44062
2.97
44904
1.91
45188
0.63
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY……………………… 21089
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 7.21
20653
5.27
21626
3.92
22500
6.14
21220
0.62
21254
2.91
22000
1.73
22762
1.16
21425
0.97
21500
1.16
22282
1.29
23014
1.10
20161
2.43
21141
4.86
21743
2.85
21992
1.15
OTHER SERVICES……………………………… 40132
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 5.62
40532
5.21
41232
3.91
41750
4.16
40884
1.87
41235
1.74
41427
0.47
41823
0.18
40922
0.09
41366
0.32
41654
0.55
42025
0.48
38855
4.37
40495
4.22
41324
2.05
41441
0.28
GOVERNMENT…………………………………… 39702
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -0.23
40934
-0.28
39273
2.41
39816
2.16
40570
2.19
41267
0.81
39178
-0.24
39567
-0.63
40240
-0.81
40980
-0.69
38955
-0.57
39282
-0.72
39475
1.44
39721
0.62
40208
1.22
39936
-0.68
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN………………………… 74425
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.59
75277
4.06
75296
3.73
77526
4.16
78600
5.61
76563
1.71
75545
0.33
77465
-0.08
78409
-0.24
76465
-0.13
75530
-0.02
77346
-0.15
71511
8.59
74856
4.68
77059
2.94
76967
-0.12
STATE & LOCAL……………………………… 35290
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -1.06
36451
-1.39
34762
1.72
35162
1.61
35858
1.61
36689
0.65
34682
-0.23
34972
-0.54
35608
-0.70
36481
-0.56
34532
-0.43
34770
-0.58
35381
0.03
35277
-0.29
35598
0.91
35398
-0.56
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
TOTAL NONFARM…………………………………… 43201
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 3.46
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
History
2015:2 2015:3
APPENDIX A
14
Table 11: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (2009 dollars)
Table 12: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (2009 dollars)
History
2015:2 2015:3
January 2016
Forecast Data
2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
2014
Annual
2015
2016
2017
43973
2.85
3.64
44087
1.04
1.86
44059
-0.26
1.82
44111
0.48
1.02
44274
1.48
0.68
44313
0.35
0.51
44347
0.30
0.65
44461
1.04
0.79
44544
0.75
0.61
41961
1.18
1.18
43161
2.86
2.86
44058
2.08
2.08
44349
0.66
0.66
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING
AND CONSTRUCTION……………………… 50063
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 23.73
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
5.91
51066
8.26
7.96
51367
2.38
8.26
51699
2.61
8.91
51808
0.85
3.49
51770
-0.29
1.38
51811
0.31
0.86
52019
1.62
0.62
52100
0.62
0.56
52162
0.48
0.76
52326
1.26
0.99
52429
0.79
0.79
47214
3.24
3.24
49991
5.88
5.88
51772
3.56
3.56
52152
0.73
0.73
MANUFACTURING……………………………… 52672
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 22.74
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
2.32
53241
4.39
3.79
53900
5.05
2.91
54332
3.24
8.57
54501
1.25
3.47
54558
0.42
2.47
54689
0.97
1.46
54911
1.63
1.07
54956
0.33
0.83
55042
0.63
0.89
55240
1.45
1.01
55335
0.69
0.77
51603
1.41
1.41
52464
1.67
1.67
54520
3.92
3.92
55037
0.95
0.95
DURABLE GOODS…………………………… 51073
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 17.69
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
1.13
51311
1.88
2.23
51960
5.16
0.95
52259
2.32
6.58
52351
0.71
2.50
52389
0.29
2.10
52513
0.95
1.06
52711
1.52
0.87
52735
0.18
0.73
52843
0.82
0.87
53073
1.75
1.07
53164
0.69
0.86
50493
2.00
2.00
50844
0.70
0.70
52378
3.02
3.02
52841
0.88
0.88
NONDURABLE GOODS…………………… 55504
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 31.76
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
4.43
56665
8.63
6.53
57360
5.00
6.31
58047
4.88
12.05
58374
2.27
5.17
58489
0.79
3.22
58661
1.18
2.27
58943
1.93
1.54
59047
0.71
1.15
59117
0.47
1.07
59280
1.11
1.05
59405
0.84
0.78
53507
0.60
0.60
55333
3.41
3.41
58393
5.53
5.53
59097
1.21
1.21
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES…… 39120
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 6.17
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
2.58
39083
-0.38
1.75
39405
3.33
-1.11
39737
3.42
3.11
39899
1.64
1.99
39903
0.04
2.10
39996
0.93
1.50
40196
2.02
1.16
40284
0.88
0.96
40357
0.73
1.14
40494
1.36
1.24
40624
1.30
1.06
38716
1.31
1.31
39037
0.83
0.83
39884
2.17
2.17
40333
1.13
1.13
WHOLESALE TRADE……………………… 59820
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 9.88
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
2.59
59333
-3.22
0.51
59834
3.42
-0.83
60397
3.82
3.37
60617
1.47
1.33
60670
0.35
2.25
60799
0.85
1.61
61067
1.77
1.11
61163
0.63
0.90
61238
0.49
0.94
61403
1.08
0.99
61602
1.30
0.88
59151
2.51
2.51
59353
0.34
0.34
60621
2.14
2.14
61218
0.98
0.98
RETAIL TRADE……………………………… 26636
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 9.18
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
2.51
26915
4.25
3.04
27124
3.14
-1.86
27321
2.94
4.85
27427
1.56
2.97
27415
-0.19
1.86
27481
0.97
1.32
27614
1.95
1.07
27677
0.93
0.91
27740
0.91
1.19
27827
1.26
1.26
27900
1.05
1.04
26483
1.36
1.36
26683
0.76
0.76
27411
2.73
2.73
27715
1.11
1.11
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES………… 48927
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 0.36
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
2.44
48343
-4.69
0.96
48732
3.26
-0.78
49128
3.29
0.50
49325
1.61
0.81
49293
-0.26
1.97
49390
0.79
1.35
49645
2.08
1.05
49748
0.83
0.86
49827
0.64
1.08
50015
1.52
1.27
50156
1.13
1.03
48212
0.28
0.28
48721
1.06
1.06
49284
1.16
1.16
49809
1.06
1.06
INFORMATION………………………………… 57039
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -0.15
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
0.68
58274
8.95
3.28
58842
3.95
9.75
59280
3.01
3.89
59440
1.08
4.21
59368
-0.49
1.88
59426
0.39
0.99
59612
1.26
0.56
59725
0.76
0.48
59830
0.71
0.78
60039
1.41
1.03
60104
0.43
0.82
55910
3.38
3.38
57804
3.39
3.39
59378
2.72
2.72
59802
0.71
0.71
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES……………………… 64615
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 7.28
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
3.05
64863
1.54
3.59
65601
4.63
2.35
66209
3.76
4.28
66461
1.54
2.86
66466
0.03
2.47
66568
0.62
1.47
66879
1.88
1.01
66991
0.67
0.80
67030
0.23
0.85
67187
0.94
0.93
67314
0.75
0.65
63223
2.66
2.66
64642
2.24
2.24
66426
2.76
2.76
67022
0.90
0.90
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
|
15
APPENDIX A
43666
3.72
3.10
|
43269
-0.11
3.46
Forecast Data
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
TOTAL NONFARM………………………………… 43281
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 8.28
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
3.50
|
Forecast Data
2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
2014
Annual
2015
2016
2017
50530
-10.27
6.75
50914
3.07
6.89
51258
2.73
0.70
51383
0.99
-1.03
51350
-0.26
1.62
51408
0.46
0.97
51587
1.40
0.64
51634
0.36
0.49
51666
0.25
0.62
51793
0.99
0.75
51897
0.80
0.60
47621
-1.63
-1.63
51066
7.23
7.23
51350
0.56
0.56
51670
0.62
0.62
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………… 43698
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -0.39
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
2.34
44240
5.05
3.30
44580
3.11
4.28
44845
2.40
2.53
44936
0.81
2.83
44896
-0.35
1.48
44946
0.44
0.82
45123
1.59
0.62
45144
0.18
0.46
45188
0.39
0.65
45309
1.07
0.81
45425
1.03
0.67
42809
0.58
0.58
44065
2.93
2.93
44906
1.91
1.91
45191
0.63
0.63
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY…………………… 21606
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 25.95
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
7.12
21124
-8.63
4.98
21423
5.79
3.92
21647
4.25
6.14
21740
1.72
0.62
21739
-0.02
2.91
21794
1.02
1.73
21900
1.95
1.16
21951
0.93
0.97
21990
0.73
1.16
22074
1.53
1.29
22141
1.23
1.10
20158
2.45
2.45
21137
4.86
4.86
21730
2.81
2.81
21979
1.14
1.14
OTHER SERVICES………………………………40619
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 9.86
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
5.84
40596
-0.22
4.81
41102
5.08
3.91
41325
2.19
4.16
41379
0.52
1.87
41300
-0.76
1.74
41296
-0.04
0.47
41398
0.99
0.18
41418
0.19
0.09
41431
0.13
0.32
41523
0.88
0.55
41598
0.73
0.48
38866
4.44
4.44
40498
4.20
4.20
41325
2.04
2.04
41442
0.28
0.28
GOVERNMENT………………………………… 39444
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -0.32
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.25
39826
3.93
0.52
40161
3.41
2.41
40326
1.66
2.16
40306
-0.20
2.19
40149
-1.55
0.81
40064
-0.85
-0.24
40074
0.10
-0.63
39979
-0.95
-0.81
39870
-1.08
-0.69
39836
-0.35
-0.57
39786
-0.50
-0.72
39409
1.33
1.33
39726
0.81
0.81
40211
1.22
1.22
39940
-0.68
-0.68
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN………………………… 73296
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -5.14
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
1.95
75916
15.08
6.05
76920
5.40
3.73
77362
2.32
4.16
77409
0.24
5.61
77212
-1.01
1.71
77175
-0.19
0.33
77302
0.66
-0.08
77220
-0.42
-0.24
77113
-0.55
-0.13
77159
0.24
-0.02
77183
0.13
-0.15
71860
9.38
9.38
75100
4.51
4.51
77290
2.92
2.92
77198
-0.12
-0.12
STATE & LOCAL………………………………35100
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -0.17
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.75
35302
2.32
-0.74
35553
2.87
1.72
35683
1.47
1.62
35665
-0.20
1.61
35535
-1.45
0.66
35471
-0.72
-0.23
35489
0.21
-0.54
35416
-0.82
-0.70
35334
-0.92
-0.57
35317
-0.19
-0.43
35285
-0.36
-0.57
35292
-0.17
-0.17
35267
-0.07
-0.07
35588
0.91
0.91
35389
-0.56
-0.56
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES… 51918
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 8.22
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
8.67
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
History
2015:2 2015:3
January 2016
APPENDIX A
16
Table 12: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (2009 dollars)
Table 13: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars)
History
2015:2 2015:3
January 2016
Forecast Data
2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
2014
Annual
2015
2016
2017
48672
4.53
48493
2.61
49021
3.04
48811
2.87
50063
2.86
49861
2.82
50400
2.81
50181
2.81
51446
2.76
45795
2.64
47212
3.10
48749
3.26
50126
2.82
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING
AND CONSTRUCTION………………………… 54336
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 6.02
54664
8.12
55684
8.61
59009
9.83
56649
4.26
56081
2.59
57194
2.71
60652
2.78
58276
2.87
57720
2.92
58917
3.01
62434
2.94
51501
4.67
54603
6.02
57233
4.82
58891
2.90
MANUFACTURING………………………………… 57637
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.59
58410
4.10
58969
3.23
59756
9.48
60083
4.24
60574
3.70
60926
3.32
61690
3.24
61977
3.15
62429
3.06
62766
3.02
63490
2.92
56304
2.85
57400
1.95
60335
5.11
62216
3.12
DURABLE GOODS…………………………… 55845
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 1.40
56363
2.55
56848
1.26
57448
7.46
57672
3.27
58239
3.33
58501
2.91
59191
3.03
59432
3.05
60010
3.04
60302
3.08
60971
3.01
55093
3.45
55629
0.97
57965
4.20
59734
3.05
NONDURABLE GOODS……………………… 60814
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.73
62028
6.83
62748
6.65
63898
12.99
64435
5.95
64792
4.45
65349
4.15
66278
3.73
66676
3.48
66895
3.25
67360
3.08
68219
2.93
58381
2.03
60536
3.69
64618
6.74
66802
3.38
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES……… 42806
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.53
42948
1.91
42621
-0.79
44113
3.97
43982
2.75
44374
3.32
44053
3.36
45584
3.33
45427
3.28
45843
3.31
45493
3.27
47051
3.22
42276
2.82
42701
1.01
44131
3.35
45587
3.30
WHOLESALE TRADE………………………… 65334
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.93
64887
0.60
65518
-0.50
66739
4.24
66696
2.09
67143
3.48
67795
3.47
68931
3.28
68842
3.22
69228
3.11
69837
3.01
71018
3.03
64560
4.01
64941
0.59
67093
3.31
69210
3.15
RETAIL TRADE………………………………… 29150
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.36
29612
3.06
29215
-1.54
30436
5.72
30238
3.73
30523
3.07
30141
3.17
31424
3.25
31215
3.23
31549
3.36
31131
3.28
32426
3.19
28924
2.87
29191
0.92
30335
3.92
31330
3.28
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES…………… 53605
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.27
53198
1.50
52654
-0.46
54342
1.34
54443
1.56
54892
3.18
54343
3.21
56095
3.23
56170
3.17
56678
3.25
56131
3.29
57881
3.18
52634
1.76
53269
1.21
54505
2.32
56268
3.24
INFORMATION…………………………………… 62253
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 0.86
64493
4.12
64342
10.10
64984
4.76
65355
4.98
66489
3.09
66171
2.84
66755
2.72
67177
2.79
68447
2.94
68191
3.05
68741
2.97
60978
4.79
63280
3.78
65750
3.90
67642
2.88
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES………………………… 70732
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 3.38
71046
3.94
71797
2.68
72908
5.15
73294
3.62
73672
3.70
74191
3.33
75231
3.19
75575
3.11
75893
3.01
76378
2.95
77334
2.79
69014
4.12
70727
2.48
73516
3.94
75769
3.06
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES…… 56903
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 9.14
55612
6.88
55023
7.24
56893
1.54
56735
-0.29
57190
2.84
56576
2.82
58492
2.81
58321
2.79
58779
2.78
58139
2.76
60097
2.74
51997
-0.15
55892
7.49
56849
1.71
58433
2.79
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES…………… 47868
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.57
48832
3.67
48464
4.62
49262
3.38
49589
3.60
50150
2.70
49757
2.67
50634
2.78
50963
2.77
51560
2.81
51161
2.82
52060
2.81
46687
1.98
48204
3.25
49690
3.08
51080
2.80
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY……………………… 23069
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 7.48
22663
5.55
23718
4.25
24684
7.03
23385
1.37
23601
4.14
24571
3.59
25509
3.34
24154
3.29
24387
3.33
25384
3.31
26341
3.26
21996
3.89
23128
5.15
24060
4.03
24859
3.32
OTHER SERVICES……………………………… 43901
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 5.89
44477
5.49
45222
4.25
45802
5.03
45055
2.63
45790
2.95
46269
2.32
46870
2.33
46133
2.39
46922
2.47
47452
2.56
48100
2.62
42393
5.86
44302
4.50
45729
3.22
46844
2.44
GOVERNMENT…………………………………… 43431
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 0.02
44918
-0.01
43074
2.74
43680
3.01
44710
2.94
45825
2.02
43757
1.59
44341
1.51
45365
1.47
46484
1.44
44377
1.42
44961
1.40
43071
2.89
43456
0.90
44493
2.38
45142
1.46
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN…………………………… 81414
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.85
82604
4.33
82582
4.07
85050
5.04
86620
6.39
85020
2.92
84374
2.17
86813
2.07
88394
2.05
86735
2.02
86042
1.98
88527
1.97
78025
10.14
81893
4.96
85266
4.12
86996
2.03
STATE & LOCAL……………………………… 38604
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -0.81
39999
-1.13
38126
2.05
38575
2.46
39517
2.36
40741
1.85
38735
1.60
39192
1.60
40142
1.58
41381
1.57
39338
1.56
39797
1.54
38604
1.46
38595
-0.03
39392
2.07
40013
1.58
17
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
APPENDIX A
47449
3.44
|
|
47577
3.63
Forecast Data
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
TOTAL NONFARM…………………………………… 47258
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 3.72
January 2016
|
TOTAL NONFARM………………………………………………..
47346 47481
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 10.68
1.14
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
3.76
3.73
47891 48241 48586 48925 49266 49616 49956 50303 50649 50984
3.50
2.96
2.89
2.82
2.82
2.87
2.77
2.81
2.78
2.67
3.44
4.51
2.62
3.04
2.87
2.85
2.82
2.82
2.81
2.76
45782 47219 48755 50131
2.62
3.14
3.25
2.82
2.62
3.14
3.25
2.82
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING & CONSTRUCTION…… 54764 56036
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 26.46
9.62
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
6.18
8.25
56338 56717 57094 57489 57866 58296 58734 59169 59609 60009
2.17
2.72
2.69
2.79
2.65
3.01
3.04
2.99
3.01
2.71
8.61
9.83
4.26
2.59
2.71
2.78
2.87
2.92
3.01
2.94
51513 54695 57291 58952
4.71
6.18
4.75
2.90
4.71
6.18
4.75
2.90
MANUFACTURING……………………………………………
57619 58423
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 25.45
5.70
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.58
4.07
59116 59605 60062 60584 61081 61537 61954 62435 62929 63334
4.83
3.35
3.10
3.52
3.32
3.02
2.74
3.15
3.20
2.60
3.24
9.48
4.24
3.70
3.32
3.24
3.15
3.06
3.03
2.92
56302 57400 60333 62214
2.85
1.95
5.11
3.12
2.85
1.95
5.11
3.12
DURABLE GOODS……………………………………......
55869 56305
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 20.29
3.16
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
1.39
2.50
56988 57331 57693 58176 58650 59072 59451 59941 60460 60849
4.94
2.43
2.55
3.39
3.30
2.91
2.59
3.34
3.51
2.60
1.28
7.47
3.26
3.32
2.92
3.04
3.05
3.03
3.09
3.01
55092 55627 57962 59731
3.45
0.97
4.20
3.05
3.45
0.97
4.20
3.05
NONDURABLE GOODS……………………………..
60716 62180
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 34.67 10.00
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
4.70
6.82
62910 63681 64330 64949 65517 66055 66566 67057 67531 67993
4.78
4.99
4.14
3.91
3.54
3.33
3.13
2.98
2.86
2.76
6.65 12.98
5.95
4.45
4.14
3.73
3.48
3.24
3.07
2.93
58379 60542 64619 66803
2.03
3.71
6.73
3.38
2.03
3.71
6.73
3.38
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES………….
42794 42887
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 8.51
0.87
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.84
2.02
43218 43594 43970 44311 44670 45047 45414 45778 46130 46497
3.12
3.53
3.50
3.13
3.28
3.42
3.30
3.24
3.11
3.22
-0.79
3.97
2.75
3.32
3.36
3.33
3.28
3.31
3.27
3.22
42242 42707 44136 45592
2.75
1.10
3.35
3.30
2.75
1.10
3.35
3.30
WHOLESALE TRADE…………………………………….
65438 65107
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 12.31 -2.00
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.85
0.78
65624 66259 66802 67371 67904 68436 68952 69463 69949 70508
3.21
3.93
3.32
3.45
3.20
3.17
3.05
3.00
2.83
3.23
-0.50
4.24
2.09
3.48
3.47
3.28
3.22
3.10
3.01
3.03
64537 64934 67084 69200
3.97
0.61
3.31
3.15
3.97
0.61
3.31
3.15
RETAIL TRADE…………………………………………….
29138 29534
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 11.59
5.56
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.77
3.31
29748 29973 30226 30443 30692 30946 31202 31466 31700 31933
2.93
3.05
3.42
2.90
3.32
3.35
3.35
3.43
3.01
2.97
-1.54
5.72
3.73
3.07
3.17
3.25
3.23
3.36
3.28
3.19
28895 29193 30333 31329
2.80
1.03
3.91
3.28
2.80
1.03
3.91
3.28
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES…………………………… 53522 53048
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 2.58 -3.49
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.70
1.23
53448 53897 54358 54738 55162 55636 56083 56519 56977 57407
3.05
3.40
3.47
2.82
3.14
3.48
3.25
3.15
3.28
3.05
-0.46
1.34
1.56
3.18
3.21
3.23
3.17
3.25
3.29
3.18
52602 53300 54539 56304
1.71
1.33
2.32
3.24
1.71
1.33
2.32
3.24
INFORMATION…………………………………………………… 62396 63946
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 2.06 10.31
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
0.94
3.55
64536 65034 65505 65925 66370 66806 67331 67866 68396 68793
3.74
3.12
2.93
2.59
2.73
2.65
3.18
3.22
3.16
2.34
10.10
4.76
4.98
3.09
2.84
2.72
2.79
2.94
3.05
2.97
60999 63239 65708 67600
4.85
3.67
3.90
2.88
4.85
3.67
3.90
2.88
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES………………………………….....
70683 71177
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 9.65
2.82
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
3.31
3.87
71949 72635 73243 73807 74348 74950 75522 76033 76539 77045
4.41
3.87
3.39
3.12
2.96
3.28
3.09
2.73
2.69
2.67
2.68
5.16
3.62
3.70
3.33
3.19
3.11
3.01
2.95
2.79
68979 70721 73508 75761
4.12
2.52
3.94
3.06
4.12
2.52
3.94
3.06
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
2014
Annual
2015 2016
2017
Forecast Data
Forecast Data
2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
History
2015:2 2015:3
APPENDIX A
18
Table 14: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars)
Table 14: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars)
January 2016
History
2015:2 2015:3
Forecast Data
2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES………………… 56794 55448
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 10.61 -9.15
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
8.94
7.04
55840 56232 56626 57021 57416 57813 58209 58605 59002 59400
2.86
2.84
2.83
2.82
2.80
2.79
2.77
2.75
2.74
2.72
7.24
1.54 -0.29
2.84
2.82
2.81
2.79
2.78
2.76
2.75
51957 55865 56824 58407
-0.22
7.52
1.72
2.79
-0.22
7.52
1.72
2.79
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES……………………….. 47802 48546
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 1.81
6.37
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.59
3.57
48894 49198 49521 49855 50198 50568 50892 51257 51615 51992
2.90
2.51
2.65
2.73
2.78
2.98
2.59
2.90
2.82
2.95
4.62
3.38
3.60
2.70
2.67
2.78
2.77
2.81
2.82
2.81
46707 48207 49693 51083
2.02
3.21
3.08
2.80
2.02
3.21
3.08
2.80
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY……………………………………. 23635 23180
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 28.74 -7.48
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
7.39
5.26
23496 23749 23958 24140 24341 24542 24746 24944 25147 25342
5.57
4.36
3.58
3.07
3.37
3.35
3.36
3.24
3.29
3.15
4.25
7.03
1.37
4.14
3.59
3.34
3.29
3.33
3.31
3.26
21995 23125 24047 24845
3.92
5.14
3.99
3.32
3.92
5.14
3.99
3.32
OTHER SERVICES………………………………………….... 44433 44547
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 12.29
1.03
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
6.10
5.09
45079 45336 45601 45862 46122 46393 46692 46996 47302 47611
4.86
2.30
2.36
2.31
2.29
2.37
2.60
2.63
2.63
2.64
4.25
5.03
2.63
2.95
2.31
2.33
2.39
2.47
2.56
2.63
42406 44306 45730 46846
5.92
4.48
3.22
2.44
5.92
4.48
3.22
2.44
GOVERNMENT……………………………………………….... 43148 43702
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 1.89
5.23
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
0.00
0.79
44047 44240 44419 44584 44746 44910 45070 45226 45380 45538
3.20
1.76
1.62
1.49
1.46
1.47
1.43
1.39
1.38
1.39
2.74
3.01
2.94
2.02
1.59
1.51
1.47
1.44
1.42
1.40
42997 43461 44497 45146
2.78
1.08
2.38
1.46
2.78
1.08
2.38
1.46
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN……………………………………….. 80179 83305
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… -3.04 16.53
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.21
6.33
84363 84871 85307 85741 86194 86630 87053 87470 87898 88341
5.18
2.43
2.07
2.05
2.13
2.04
1.97
1.93
1.97
2.03
4.07
5.04
6.39
2.92
2.17
2.07
2.05
2.02
1.98
1.97
78407 82162 85528 87263
10.94
4.79
4.10
2.03
10.94
4.79
4.10
2.03
STATE & LOCAL………………………………………….... 38396 38738
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 2.03
3.61
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
-0.50 -0.48
38993 39146 39304 39460 39616 39771 39926 40079 40233 40386
2.66
1.58
1.62
1.60
1.59
1.58
1.56
1.55
1.54
1.53
2.05
2.47
2.36
1.86
1.60
1.60
1.58
1.57
1.56
1.55
38505 38582 39381 40002
1.25
0.20
2.07
1.58
1.25
0.20
2.07
1.58
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
2014
Annual
2015 2016
2017
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
|
|
19
APPENDIX A
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
|
History
2015:3 2015:4
January 2016
2014
Annual
2015
2016
2017
3064
2.47
3042
0.62
3068
-1.21
3069
0.09
3067
0.13
3057
0.50
3087
0.62
3089
0.67
3090
0.74
3081
0.77
3011
-2.27
3065
1.76
3062
-0.10
3081
0.63
EMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)…………… 2883
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.78
2899
3.45
2875
1.61
2899
-0.93
2891
0.28
2905
0.21
2892
0.62
2921
0.76
2915
0.82
2930
0.87
2918
0.89
2811
-1.10
2884
2.62
2893
0.28
2915
0.77
UNEMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)………… 183
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -13.89
164
-12.10
168
-13.83
169
-5.73
177
-2.88
162
-1.24
165
-1.58
165
-1.88
174
-1.80
160
-1.60
163
-1.33
201
-16.17
180
-10.21
169
-6.17
166
-1.72
PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT)……………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
57.7
0.41
57.5
1.26
56.9
-0.56
57.2
-2.36
57.1
-1.06
56.9
-1.02
56.5
-0.64
56.9
-0.51
56.8
-0.44
56.7
-0.37
56.4
-0.32
57.4
-3.43
57.7
0.55
57.0
-1.26
56.7
-0.49
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (PERCENT)……………
6.0
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.8
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.6
5.2
5.3
6.7
5.9
5.5
5.4
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE (THOUS)……………… 3066
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 1.61
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
APPENDIX A
20
Table 15: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Table 16: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted
History
2015:3 2015:4
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE (THOUS)…………
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………
Forecast Data
2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
2014
Annual
2015
2016
2017
3058
-4.74
2.39
3062
0.42
2.63
3056
-0.79
0.61
3058
0.35
-1.21
3061
0.43
0.10
3065
0.52
0.12
3071
0.69
0.49
3077
0.83
0.62
3082
0.67
0.68
3088
0.73
0.73
3094
0.85
0.77
2993
-1.97
-1.97
3063
2.33
2.33
3060
-0.10
-0.10
3079
0.63
0.63
EMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)………… 2884
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………
-4.22
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………
3.40
2891
0.97
3.75
2885
-0.80
1.61
2888
0.42
-0.93
2892
0.56
0.28
2897
0.66
0.21
2903
0.83
0.62
2910
1.00
0.76
2916
0.80
0.82
2922
0.83
0.87
2929
0.94
0.89
2797
-0.84
-0.84
2882
3.05
3.05
2890
0.28
0.28
2913
0.77
0.77
174
-12.79
-11.83
171
-8.29
-13.30
171
-0.48
-13.83
170
-0.80
-5.73
169
-1.75
-2.88
169
-1.93
-1.24
168
-1.85
-1.58
167
-2.00
-1.88
166
-1.44
-1.80
166
-1.11
-1.60
166
-0.76
-1.33
197
-15.69
-15.69
181
-7.97
-7.97
170
-6.20
-6.20
167
-1.72
-1.72
57.5
-5.87
1.18
57.4
-0.77
1.41
57.1
-1.92
-0.58
57.0
-0.80
-2.36
56.9
-0.72
-1.05
56.8
-0.63
-1.02
56.8
-0.42
-0.64
56.7
-0.27
-0.51
56.7
-0.43
-0.44
56.6
-0.37
-0.37
56.6
-0.23
-0.32
57.1
-3.13
-3.13
57.7
1.12
1.12
57.0
-1.26
-1.26
56.7
-0.49
-0.49
5.7
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
6.6
5.9
5.5
5.4
UNEMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)……
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………
PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT)…………
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (PERCENT)………
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
|
|
21
APPENDIX A
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
|
History
2015:2 2015:3
January 2016
2014
Annual
2015
2016
2017
25942
7.27
27861
5.41
24740
7.55
27009
3.65
26344
1.55
28236
1.35
25119
1.53
27313
1.13
26657
1.19
28680
1.57
25526
1.62
AUTO DEALERS………………………………… 2750
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 13.37
2870
12.91
2592
9.16
2717
7.13
2865
4.20
2953
2.88
2650
2.22
2805
3.26
2855
-0.36
2925
-0.94
2690
1.52
2900
3.39
9683
5.90
10748
11.00
11185
4.06
11275
0.81
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS….
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
1100
9.19
1136
9.67
1311
5.12
957
8.26
1164
5.90
1149
1.17
1319
0.58
965
0.82
1180
1.36
1166
1.46
1341
1.66
981
1.66
4109
5.64
4431
7.84
4590
3.58
4652
1.36
MISC DURABLE GOODS………………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
4547
7.15
4346
5.49
4478
5.83
3909
10.67
4688
3.10
4416
1.61
4527
1.11
3961
1.33
4750
1.31
4486
1.60
4606
1.73
4026
1.64
16103
3.01
16903
4.97
17540
3.77
17803
1.49
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES…………… 2833
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 8.68
2808
7.36
2768
6.00
2713
6.30
2918
2.98
2859
1.80
2812
1.59
2761
1.80
2967
1.69
2912
1.85
2870
2.07
2814
1.92
10260
4.35
10961
6.84
11301
3.10
11510
1.85
FOOD STORES…………………………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
2420
3.91
2457
3.83
2673
3.44
2370
2.57
2482
2.54
2480
0.94
2693
0.73
2380
0.41
2490
0.36
2489
0.36
2706
0.51
2388
0.33
9490
1.29
9861
3.91
10024
1.66
10065
0.41
LIQUOR STORES………………………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
211
9.22
210
8.12
262
6.18
211
5.50
219
3.57
214
1.90
266
1.36
213
1.39
222
1.52
218
1.71
271
2.07
218
2.01
821
5.48
883
7.62
909
2.95
925
1.69
HOTELS AND MOTELS………………………… 801
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 12.38
832
13.97
757
12.88
636
10.66
827
3.20
827
-0.63
765
1.07
661
3.84
859
3.94
860
3.95
795
3.92
685
3.74
2647
12.27
2965
12.00
3055
3.03
3174
3.92
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
7789
6.24
7708
8.01
8946
4.73
7635
8.86
8122
4.27
7829
1.56
9121
1.96
7766
1.71
8254
1.63
7969
1.79
9290
1.86
7894
1.65
29923
3.84
31457
5.13
32707
3.97
33279
1.75
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS………………… 2134
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.37
2098
5.75
2518
5.83
2102
9.74
2236
4.80
2146
2.31
2555
1.47
2130
1.29
2265
1.29
2178
1.50
2597
1.65
2160
1.44
8297
2.66
8665
4.44
9040
4.32
9170
1.44
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION…… 1472
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 13.65
1476
1.21
1556
0.80
1491
0.36
1488
1.10
1471
-0.33
1529
-1.75
1477
-0.93
1471
-1.17
1454
-1.11
1513
-1.01
1460
-1.17
5786
-2.78
5989
3.51
5978
-0.17
5915
-1.05
3887
6.16
4164
4.32
3688
6.44
4016
2.58
3907
0.51
4177
0.31
3706
0.50
4020
0.10
3913
0.17
4199
0.55
3728
0.60
14721
2.39
15429
4.81
15786
2.31
15838
0.33
PER CAPITA ($)……………………………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
3914
6.60
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
97118 102863 106329 107769
3.48
5.92
3.37
1.35
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
TOTAL TAXABLE SALES………………………… 26057
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 7.72
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Forecast Data
2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
APPENDIX A
22
Table 17: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2009 dollars)
Table 18: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2009 dollars)
History
2015:2 2015:3
January 2016
Forecast Data
2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
2014
Annual
2015
2016
2017
26580
2.88
3.66
26635
0.83
1.55
26708
1.10
1.35
26795
1.31
1.53
26878
1.24
1.12
26954
1.14
1.20
27127
2.59
1.57
27230
1.52
1.62
AUTO DEALERS………………………………… 2697
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 29.95
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 13.53
2754
8.67
12.79
2774
3.02
9.16
2706
-9.45
7.13
2810
16.28
4.20
2833
3.28
2.88
2836
0.39
2.22
2794
-5.71
3.26
2800
0.84
-0.36
2806
0.89
-0.94
2879
10.74
1.52
2889
1.43
3.39
9689
5.98
5.98
10751
10.95
10.95
11185
4.04
4.04
11279
0.85
0.85
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS….
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
1081
8.58
9.28
1135
21.27
9.81
1144
3.23
5.12
1147
1.06
8.26
1145
-0.61
5.90
1148
1.03
1.17
1151
0.86
0.58
1156
2.02
0.82
1161
1.55
1.36
1165
1.41
1.46
1170
1.68
1.66
1176
2.02
1.66
4089
5.42
5.42
4420
8.09
8.09
4591
3.87
3.87
4652
1.33
1.33
MISC DURABLE GOODS……………………… 4252
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 34.98
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 7.15
4317
6.21
5.44
4352
3.30
5.83
4366
1.30
10.67
4384
1.66
3.10
4386
0.18
1.61
4400
1.31
1.11
4424
2.18
1.33
4442
1.58
1.31
4456
1.32
1.60
4476
1.83
1.73
4497
1.81
1.64
16089
2.96
2.96
16866
4.83
4.83
17537
3.98
3.98
17799
1.49
1.49
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES…………… 2741
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 15.86
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 8.64
2779
5.72
7.36
2796
2.46
6.00
2808
1.73
6.30
2823
2.06
2.98
2829
0.97
1.80
2841
1.61
1.59
2859
2.56
1.80
2870
1.62
1.69
2882
1.59
1.85
2899
2.51
2.07
2914
1.96
1.92
10259
4.35
4.35
10958
6.81
6.81
11301
3.13
3.13
11510
1.85
1.85
FOOD STORES…………………………………
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
2445
0.82
3.95
2483
6.40
3.83
2489
0.91
3.44
2503
2.24
2.57
2507
0.70
2.54
2507
-0.09
0.94
2507
0.08
0.73
2513
0.97
0.41
2516
0.48
0.36
2516
-0.08
0.36
2520
0.67
0.51
2522
0.26
0.33
9487
1.21
1.21
9858
3.91
3.91
10024
1.69
1.69
10065
0.41
0.41
LIQUOR STORES………………………………
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
219
8.75
9.31
223
7.79
8.05
225
3.42
6.18
226
2.17
5.50
227
1.04
3.57
228
1.00
1.90
228
1.24
1.36
230
2.30
1.39
230
1.53
1.52
231
1.76
1.71
233
2.70
2.07
234
2.07
2.01
819
5.36
5.36
882
7.69
7.69
909
3.05
3.05
924
1.67
1.67
HOTELS AND MOTELS………………………… 737
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 37.30
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 12.32
771
19.59
13.88
765
-2.95
12.88
753
-5.90
10.66
760
3.85
3.20
766
2.81
-0.63
773
3.86
1.07
782
4.85
3.84
790
4.26
3.94
796
2.84
3.95
803
3.75
3.92
812
4.11
3.74
2642
11.91
11.91
2953
11.78
11.78
3053
3.37
3.37
3172
3.91
3.91
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE……………… 7832
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 20.96
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 6.23
8060
12.16
7.99
8058
-0.10
4.73
8130
3.62
8.86
8166
1.79
4.27
8186
0.97
1.56
8216
1.49
1.96
8269
2.61
1.71
8299
1.45
1.63
8332
1.60
1.79
8369
1.76
1.86
8406
1.78
1.65
29891
3.72
3.72
31419
5.11
5.11
32699
4.07
4.07
33270
1.75
1.75
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS………………… 2155
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 21.73
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.36
2209
10.46
5.70
2235
4.79
5.83
2251
2.92
9.74
2258
1.24
4.80
2260
0.36
2.31
2268
1.36
1.47
2280
2.23
1.29
2287
1.22
1.29
2294
1.19
1.50
2305
1.95
1.65
2313
1.41
1.44
8289
2.57
2.57
8650
4.36
4.36
9037
4.47
4.47
9167
1.43
1.43
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION…… 1483
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -3.32
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 13.72
1497
4.06
1.26
1514
4.60
0.80
1501
-3.60
0.36
1499
-0.42
1.10
1492
-1.72
-0.33
1488
-1.22
-1.75
1487
-0.34
-0.93
1481
-1.40
-1.17
1476
-1.50
-1.11
1473
-0.79
-1.01
1469
-0.99
-1.17
5782
-2.77
-2.77
5989
3.59
3.59
5980
-0.16
-0.16
5917
-1.05
-1.05
|
PER CAPITA ($)…………………………………… 3852
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 18.31
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 6.59
3930
8.33
6.09
3938
0.86
4.38
3934
-0.44
6.51
3952
1.83
2.59
3950
-0.20
0.51
3951
0.07
0.31
3953
0.29
0.49
3956
0.22
0.09
3957
0.13
0.17
3972
1.56
0.55
3977
0.51
0.60
14710
2.32
2.32
15414
4.78
4.78
15786
2.42
2.42
15838
0.33
0.33
23
97036 102746 106315 107755
3.41
5.88
3.47
1.35
3.41
5.88
3.47
1.35
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
APPENDIX A
26392
0.59
7.62
|
26353
1.91
5.48
Forecast Data
26228
9.46
7.21
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
TOTAL TAXABLE SALES………………………… 25642
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 19.55
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 7.71
|
History
2015:2 2015:3
January 2016
2014
Annual
2015
2016
2017
28466
7.56
30557
5.75
27142
8.45
29764
4.42
29253
2.76
31536
3.20
28150
3.72
30792
3.45
30237
3.36
32671
3.60
29216
3.79
AUTO DEALERS………………………………… 3008
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 13.65
3150
13.21
2843
9.51
2980
8.03
3158
4.97
3279
4.11
2959
4.09
3144
5.48
3219
1.93
3318
1.19
3064
3.55
3320
5.60
10565
7.42
11760
11.31
12376
5.24
12745
2.98
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS….
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
1203
9.46
1246
9.96
1438
5.46
1050
9.17
1283
6.68
1276
2.38
1473
2.43
1081
2.99
1331
3.69
1322
3.64
1528
3.70
1123
3.83
4484
7.15
4849
8.14
5082
4.81
5262
3.54
MISC DURABLE GOODS………………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
4974
7.42
4769
5.77
4911
6.17
4288
11.60
5167
3.87
4904
2.82
5057
2.97
4439
3.51
5355
3.64
5089
3.78
5247
3.76
4608
3.80
17572
4.49
18497
5.26
19415
4.96
20129
3.68
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES…………… 3099
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 8.95
3082
7.65
3036
6.34
2976
7.19
3215
3.74
3175
3.02
3141
3.45
3095
3.99
3345
4.02
3303
4.03
3270
4.11
3221
4.09
11195
5.84
11993
7.13
12507
4.28
13012
4.04
FOOD STORES…………………………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
2647
4.17
2696
4.11
2932
3.78
2600
3.43
2735
3.30
2754
2.15
3007
2.57
2667
2.58
2808
2.66
2823
2.51
3083
2.51
2733
2.47
10356
2.74
10789
4.19
11096
2.84
11381
2.57
LIQUOR STORES………………………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
231
9.49
231
8.41
287
6.53
231
6.38
241
4.34
238
3.12
297
3.22
239
3.58
250
3.85
247
3.89
309
4.11
249
4.19
896
6.97
967
7.92
1007
4.17
1046
3.87
HOTELS AND MOTELS………………………… 876
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 12.66
913
14.28
830
13.25
698
11.59
911
3.97
918
0.56
854
2.92
740
6.08
969
6.33
975
6.18
905
6.00
785
5.95
2889
13.90
3245
12.31
3381
4.21
3589
6.15
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
8521
6.51
8459
8.30
9811
5.07
8376
9.77
8950
5.04
8693
2.78
10187
3.83
8703
3.90
9305
3.96
9039
3.97
10583
3.89
9035
3.81
32652
5.31
34421
5.42
36207
5.19
37631
3.93
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS………………… 2334
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.63
2302
6.03
2762
6.17
2306
10.66
2464
5.57
2383
3.54
2853
3.32
2386
3.47
2554
3.61
2471
3.68
2958
3.68
2473
3.60
9053
4.12
9482
4.73
10007
5.54
10369
3.62
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION…… 1610
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 13.94
1619
1.48
1707
1.13
1635
1.20
1640
1.85
1633
0.86
1707
0.05
1655
1.21
1658
1.10
1650
1.01
1724
0.97
1671
0.94
6313
-1.39
6552
3.79
6616
0.98
6687
1.07
4265
6.44
4566
4.66
4046
7.33
4425
3.35
4338
1.71
4665
2.15
4153
2.66
4532
2.40
4439
2.32
4784
2.56
4267
2.75
16063
3.85
16883
5.10
17474
3.50
17907
2.48
PER CAPITA ($)……………………………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
4282
6.87
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
105976 112554 117695 121850
4.96
6.21
4.57
3.53
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
TOTAL TAXABLE SALES………………………… 28505
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 7.99
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Forecast Data
2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
APPENDIX A
24
Table 19: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars)
Table 20: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars)
History
2015:2 2015:3
January 2016
Forecast Data
2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
Annual
2015
2016
2017
105877 112414 117652
4.89
6.17
4.66
4.89
6.17
4.66
121807
3.53
3.53
2014
28953
0.70
8.52
29292
4.76
4.43
29577
3.95
2.77
29829
3.45
3.20
30028
2.70
3.71
30301
3.67
3.44
30575
3.67
3.37
30903
4.37
3.60
31167
3.45
3.79
AUTO DEALERS………………………………… 2950
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 32.82
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 13.82
3022
10.03
13.09
3043
2.81
9.51
2969
-9.35
8.03
3097
18.40
4.97
3146
6.47
4.11
3167
2.73
4.09
3131
-4.42
5.48
3157
3.26
1.93
3183
3.40
1.19
3279
12.65
3.55
3307
3.36
5.60
10572
7.49
7.49
11762
11.26
11.26
12378
5.24
5.24
12751
3.01
3.01
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS….
1183
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 10.98
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
9.55
1245
22.79
10.10
1255
3.02
5.46
1258
1.17
9.17
1262
1.21
6.68
1275
4.15
2.38
1285
3.21
2.43
1296
3.42
2.99
1309
3.99
3.69
1321
3.94
3.64
1333
3.44
3.70
1346
3.96
3.83
4461
6.93
6.93
4836
8.39
8.39
5080
5.06
5.06
5258
3.51
3.51
MISC DURABLE GOODS……………………… 4652
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 37.96
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
7.42
4737
7.54
5.72
4773
3.09
6.17
4790
1.41
11.60
4832
3.52
3.87
4871
3.28
2.82
4915
3.67
2.97
4958
3.58
3.51
5007
4.02
3.64
5055
3.85
3.78
5100
3.59
3.76
5147
3.75
3.80
17555
4.44
4.44
18454
5.12
5.12
19407
5.16
5.16
20120
3.67
3.67
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES…………… 2998
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 18.42
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
8.92
3050
7.05
7.65
3067
2.25
6.34
3081
1.84
7.19
3111
3.92
3.74
3142
4.09
3.02
3173
3.98
3.45
3204
3.97
3.99
3236
4.06
4.02
3269
4.13
4.03
3303
4.28
4.11
3335
3.90
4.09
11194
5.84
5.84
11989
7.10
7.10
12506
4.31
4.31
13011
4.04
4.04
FOOD STORES…………………………………
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
2675
3.05
4.21
2725
7.74
4.11
2730
0.71
3.78
2746
2.35
3.43
2763
2.54
3.30
2784
3.00
2.15
2800
2.41
2.57
2817
2.35
2.58
2837
2.89
2.66
2854
2.41
2.52
2871
2.41
2.51
2886
2.16
2.47
10351
2.66
2.66
10785
4.19
4.19
11093
2.86
2.86
11377
2.57
2.57
LIQUOR STORES………………………………
240
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 11.15
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
9.58
245
9.14
8.34
247
3.21
6.53
248
2.28
6.38
250
2.89
4.34
253
4.12
3.12
255
3.60
3.22
257
3.70
3.58
260
3.97
3.85
262
4.30
3.89
265
4.48
4.11
268
4.01
4.19
894
6.86
6.86
965
7.98
7.98
1006
4.24
4.24
1045
3.86
3.86
HOTELS AND MOTELS………………………… 806
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 40.33
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 12.60
846
21.10
14.18
839
-3.15
13.25
826
-5.80
11.59
838
5.75
3.97
850
5.99
0.56
863
6.28
2.92
877
6.29
6.08
891
6.76
6.33
903
5.41
6.18
915
5.55
6.00
929
6.09
5.95
2883
13.51
13.51
3231
12.09
12.09
3378
4.55
4.55
3586
6.15
6.15
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE……………… 8568
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 23.64
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
6.49
8845
13.57
8.28
8838
-0.30
5.07
8919
3.73
9.77
9000
3.65
5.04
9090
4.09
2.78
9176
3.85
3.83
9267
4.02
3.90
9356
3.89
3.96
9452
4.14
3.97
9534
3.52
3.89
9621
3.71
3.81
32614
5.20
5.20
34376
5.40
5.40
36186
5.27
5.27
37609
3.93
3.93
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS………………… 2357
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 24.42
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
4.63
2424
11.85
5.98
2451
4.57
6.17
2470
3.03
10.66
2489
3.09
5.57
2510
3.46
3.54
2533
3.72
3.32
2556
3.63
3.47
2579
3.65
3.61
2602
3.72
3.68
2626
3.71
3.68
2648
3.34
3.60
9044
4.04
4.04
9464
4.64
4.64
10001
5.67
5.67
10362
3.61
3.61
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION…… 1622
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………
-1.18
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 14.00
1643
5.37
1.53
1661
4.39
1.13
1646
-3.50
1.20
1652
1.40
1.85
1657
1.32
0.86
1662
1.08
0.05
1666
1.03
1.21
1670
0.97
1.10
1674
0.96
1.01
1678
0.93
0.97
1682
0.90
0.94
6308
-1.38
-1.38
6552
3.87
3.87
6617
0.99
0.99
6688
1.07
1.07
PER CAPITA ($)……………………………………
4214
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 20.93
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
6.86
4312
9.69
6.38
4319
0.65
4.72
4316
-0.33
7.40
4355
3.69
3.35
4386
2.89
1.71
4412
2.40
2.15
4430
1.66
2.66
4459
2.63
2.39
4488
2.63
2.33
4525
3.32
2.56
4552
2.42
2.75
16050
3.78
3.78
16864
5.07
5.07
17469
3.59
3.59
17903
2.48
2.48
|
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
25
APPENDIX A
28903
1.70
5.82
|
28781
10.84
7.49
Forecast Data
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
TOTAL TAXABLE SALES………………………… 28050
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 22.19
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
7.98
Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted
January 2016
|
2017
2018
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
16780.6
2.65
17274.5
2.94
17728.6
2.63
18160.0
2.43
18600.2
2.42
19001.4
2.16
19410.7
2.15
19846.1
2.24
20292.1
2.25
20734.5
2.18
US GDP (Bil$) SAAR……………………………………………
Percentage change……………………………………………
17951.1
3.48
18743.4
4.41
19668.4
4.94
20597.6
4.72
21531.1
4.53
22517.9
4.58
23499.8
4.36
24524.2
4.36
25592.8
4.36
26693.8
4.30
27826.3
4.24
TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL2009$) SAAR…….................
Percentage change……………………………………………
253482
4.38
262535
3.57
269009
2.47
275712
2.49
282315
2.39
289062
2.39
295381
2.19
301349
2.02
307344
1.99
313789
2.10
320868
2.26
US PERSONAL INCOME (BIL2009$) SAAR…………..........
Percentage change……………………………………………
14036
4.22
14475
3.12
14929
3.14
15382
3.04
15819
2.84
16257
2.77
16662
2.49
17051
2.33
17449
2.34
17853
2.32
18267
2.32
TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL$) SAAR……………………....
Percentage change……………………………………………
277316
4.66
290533
4.77
304095
4.67
317862
4.53
331870
4.41
346797
4.50
362031
4.39
377731
4.34
394009
4.31
411133
4.35
429289
4.42
US PERSONAL INCOME (BIL$) SAAR……………………....
Percentage change……………………………………………
15360
4.53
15998
4.16
16825
5.17
17707
5.24
18591
4.99
19505
4.92
20424
4.71
21375
4.65
22372
4.66
23394
4.57
24446
4.50
TN NONFARM JOBS (THOUS)…………………………………
Percentage change……………………………………………
2870.7
1.94
2918.0
1.65
2956.2
1.31
2997.7
1.40
3037.7
1.33
3070.0
1.06
3100.8
1.00
3130.1
0.94
3160.1
0.96
3189.6
0.93
3217.7
0.88
US NONFARM JOBS (MIL)………………………………………
Percentage change……………………………………………
141.9
2.10
144.3
1.67
146.2
1.29
147.9
1.19
149.4
1.03
151.0
1.05
152.2
0.76
153.3
0.73
154.4
0.72
155.5
0.73
156.5
0.67
TN MFG JOBS (THOUS)…………………………………………
Percentage change……………………………………………
331.5
1.93
333.7
0.68
336.1
0.71
338.2
0.63
339.6
0.41
339.2
-0.13
338.0
-0.36
335.9
-0.60
333.7
-0.68
330.6
-0.92
327.3
-1.00
US MFG JOBS (MIL)………………………………………………
Percentage change……………………………………………
12.3
1.12
12.3
-0.14
12.4
0.85
12.5
0.92
12.6
0.97
12.7
0.76
12.8
0.73
12.9
0.18
12.9
0.00
12.9
0.00
12.9
-0.03
TN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)……………………………...
5.9
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)………………………………
5.3
4.9
4.9
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.0
5.0
CHAINED PRICE INDEX, GDP (2009=100.0)…………….....
Percentage change……………………………………………
109.8
1.04
111.7
1.70
113.9
1.94
116.2
2.04
118.6
2.05
121.1
2.11
123.7
2.16
126.3
2.16
129.0
2.07
131.5
2.01
134.2
2.02
US PERS CONSUMP DEFL (2009=100.0)……………..........
Percentage change……………………………………………
109.4
0.29
110.5
1.00
112.7
1.97
115.1
2.14
117.5
2.09
120.0
2.09
122.6
2.16
125.4
2.27
128.2
2.27
131.0
2.20
133.8
2.13
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, ALL-URBAN (82-84=1.000)……
Percentage change……………………………………………
2.370
0.13
2.399
1.21
2.460
2.56
2.526
2.68
2.591
2.54
2.655
2.50
2.724
2.58
2.798
2.72
2.874
2.70
2.947
2.56
3.018
2.41
BANK PRIME INTEREST RATE (%)……………………………
3.3
3.9
4.9
5.9
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.3
FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (% per annum)………………………
0.131
0.899
1.912
2.902
3.250
3.250
3.250
3.250
3.250
3.250
3.250
30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE (%)………………………
3.9
4.4
4.7
5.4
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL2009$)………………………………
Percentage change……………………………………………
102746
5.88
106315
3.47
107755
1.35
109560
1.68
111496
1.77
113387
1.70
115204
1.60
116993
1.55
118691
1.45
120455
1.49
122480
1.68
TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL$)……………………………………
Percentage change……………………………………………
112414
6.17
117652
4.66
121807
3.53
126307
3.69
131066
3.77
136033
3.79
141197
3.80
146646
3.86
152158
3.76
157821
3.72
163864
3.83
TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE, NONFARM (2009$)……………...
Percentage change……………………………………………
43161
2.86
44058
2.08
44349
0.66
44652
0.68
44929
0.62
45141
0.47
45276
0.30
45354
0.17
45451
0.21
45592
0.31
45765
0.38
TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE, NONFARM ($)……………….......
Percentage change……………………………………………
47219
3.14
48755
3.25
50131
2.82
51477
2.68
52814
2.60
54155
2.54
55490
2.46
56848
2.45
58265
2.49
59733
2.52
61227
2.50
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
2016
16346.8
2.41
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2015
US GDP (Bil2009$) SAAR………………………………………
Percentage change……………………………………………
APPENDIX A
26
Forecast Data
2019
2020
Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators
January 2016
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
TN GDP (2009$) SAAR…………………………
Percentage change…………………………
42240
1.33
42745
1.20
43222
1.12
43719
1.15
44261
1.24
US GDP (2009$) SAAR………………….……
Percentage change................................
50787
1.65
51712
1.82
52807
2.12
53762
1.81
TN GDP ($) SAAR………………………………
Percentage change…………………………
46690
3.13
48202
3.24
49652
3.01
US GDP ($) SAAR………………………………
Percentage change................................
55771
2.70
57761
3.57
TN PERSONAL INCOME (2009$) SAAR……
Percentage change................................
38028
3.29
US PERSONAL INCOME (2009$) SAAR……
Percentage change................................
Forecast Data
2020
2022
2023
2024
2025
44761
1.13
45297
1.20
45848
1.22
46395
1.19
46947
1.19
47550
1.29
54636
1.62
55522
1.62
56283
1.37
57058
1.38
57901
1.48
58766
1.49
59613
1.44
51154
3.02
52726
3.07
54309
3.00
56021
3.15
57816
3.20
59627
3.13
61486
3.12
63451
3.20
60125
4.09
62463
3.89
64778
3.71
67217
3.77
69607
3.56
72089
3.57
74667
3.58
77305
3.53
80002
3.49
38982
2.51
39539
1.43
40119
1.47
40676
1.39
41243
1.40
41741
1.21
42182
1.06
42621
1.04
43115
1.16
43691
1.33
43609
3.44
44607
2.29
45635
2.31
46647
2.22
47593
2.03
48528
1.96
49354
1.70
50120
1.55
50907
1.57
51703
1.56
52520
1.58
TN PERSONAL INCOME ($) SAAR…………
Percentage change................................
41603
3.57
43139
3.69
44695
3.61
46252
3.48
47815
3.38
49480
3.48
51159
3.39
52873
3.35
54638
3.34
56490
3.39
58453
3.48
US PERSONAL INCOME ($) SAAR…………
Percentage change................................
47720
3.75
49301
3.31
51434
4.33
53698
4.40
55932
4.16
58224
4.10
60497
3.90
62831
3.86
65270
3.88
67750
3.80
70284
3.74
TN TAXABLE SALES (2009$)…………………
Percentage change................................
15414
4.78
15786
2.42
15838
0.33
15942
0.66
16064
0.76
16178
0.71
16280
0.63
16376
0.59
16459
0.51
16551
0.56
16677
0.77
TN TAXABLE SALES ($)………………………
Percentage change................................
16864
5.07
17469
3.59
17903
2.48
18379
2.66
18884
2.75
19409
2.78
19953
2.80
20527
2.88
21100
2.79
21685
2.77
22312
2.89
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
|
|
27
APPENDIX A
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2021
January 2016
|
2017
2018
2019
TN PERSONAL INCOME…………...……………
Percentage change…………………………
253482
4.38
262535
3.57
269009
2.47
275712
2.49
282315
2.39
WAGES AND SALARIES……………………
Percentage change…………………………
124639
4.72
129447
3.86
132192
2.12
134946
2.08
OTHER LABOR INCOME……………………
Percentage change…………………………
27759
2.25
28609
3.06
29294
2.39
PROPRIETORS INCOME……………………
Percentage change…………………………
33781
4.83
35059
3.78
RENT, INTEREST, DIVIDENDS……………
Percentage change…………………………
35754
3.85
TRANSFER PAYMENTS……………………
Percentage change…………………………
Forecast Data
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
289062
2.39
295381
2.19
301349
2.02
307344
1.99
313789
2.10
320868
2.26
137561
1.94
139658
1.52
141457
1.29
143022
1.11
144684
1.16
146471
1.23
148304
1.25
29927
2.16
30459
1.78
30949
1.61
31355
1.31
31705
1.11
32057
1.11
32391
1.04
32759
1.13
35952
2.55
37039
3.03
37982
2.55
39398
3.73
40855
3.70
42211
3.32
43514
3.09
44930
3.25
46555
3.62
36888
3.17
37995
3.00
39208
3.19
40317
2.83
41392
2.67
42398
2.43
43305
2.14
44281
2.25
45350
2.41
46570
2.69
52529
4.54
53825
2.47
54850
1.90
55886
1.89
57238
2.42
58876
2.86
60456
2.68
62134
2.78
63711
2.54
65423
2.69
67331
2.92
LESS: PERS CONT FOR SOC INS…………
Percentage change…………………………
19736
3.55
20042
1.55
20045
0.01
20087
0.21
20059
-0.14
20058
-0.01
20015
-0.21
19934
-0.40
19840
-0.47
19742
-0.49
19645
-0.49
RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT…………………
Percentage change…………………………
-1243
6.94
-1251
0.58
-1229
-1.75
-1208
-1.68
-1184
-2.00
-1155
-2.48
-1124
-2.61
-1093
-2.76
-1063
-2.80
-1033
-2.76
-1005
-2.71
PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME ($)…………
Percentage change…………………………
38028
3.29
38982
2.51
39539
1.43
40119
1.47
40676
1.39
41243
1.40
41741
1.21
42182
1.06
42621
1.04
43115
1.16
43691
1.33
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
2016
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2015
APPENDIX A
28
Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of 2009 dollars)
Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of current dollars)
January 2016
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
TN PERSONAL INCOME…………...……………
Percentage change…………………………
277316
4.66
290533
4.77
304095
4.67
317862
4.53
331870
4.41
WAGES AND SALARIES……………………
Percentage change…………………………
136360
5.01
143252
5.05
149432
4.31
155575
4.11
OTHER LABOR INCOME……………………
Percentage change…………………………
30369
2.53
31659
4.25
33114
4.60
PROPRIETORS INCOME……………………
Percentage change…………………………
36957
5.11
38798
4.98
RENT, INTEREST, DIVIDENDS……………
Percentage change…………………………
39116
4.13
TRANSFER PAYMENTS……………………
Percentage change…………………………
Forecast Data
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
346797
4.50
362031
4.39
377731
4.34
394009
4.31
411133
4.35
429289
4.42
161706
3.94
167550
3.61
173373
3.48
179270
3.40
185479
3.46
191906
3.47
198412
3.39
34502
4.19
35805
3.78
37130
3.70
38430
3.50
39740
3.41
41095
3.41
42439
3.27
43827
3.27
40641
4.75
42702
5.07
44650
4.56
47269
5.87
50074
5.94
52911
5.67
55785
5.43
58869
5.53
62287
5.81
40822
4.36
42951
5.22
45203
5.24
47395
4.85
49660
4.78
51964
4.64
54282
4.46
56768
4.58
59419
4.67
62307
4.86
57466
4.82
59565
3.65
62003
4.09
64430
3.91
67285
4.43
70636
4.98
74097
4.90
77884
5.11
81677
4.87
85720
4.95
90083
5.09
LESS: PERS CONT FOR SOC INS…………
Percentage change…………………………
21592
3.83
22178
2.72
22658
2.16
23157
2.20
23580
1.82
24063
2.05
24530
1.94
24986
1.86
25433
1.79
25866
1.70
26282
1.61
RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT…………………
Percentage change…………………………
-1360
7.24
-1384
1.73
-1389
0.36
-1393
0.27
-1392
-0.08
-1385
-0.47
-1378
-0.51
-1370
-0.55
-1362
-0.59
-1354
-0.62
-1345
-0.65
PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME ($)…………
Percentage change…………………………
41603
3.57
43139
3.69
44695
3.61
46252
3.48
47815
3.38
49480
3.48
51159
3.39
52873
3.35
54638
3.34
56490
3.39
58453
3.48
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
|
|
29
APPENDIX A
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
January 2016
|
2016
2017
2018
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
TOTAL NONFARM…………………………………………………
Percentage change…………………………………………
2870.7
1.94
2918.0
1.65
2956.2
1.31
2997.7
1.40
3037.7
1.33
3070.0
1.06
3100.8
1.00
3130.1
0.94
3160.1
0.96
3189.6
0.93
3217.7
0.88
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING & CONSTRUCTION……
Percentage change…………………………………………
114.5
3.20
117.5
2.63
121.0
3.02
124.1
2.49
126.2
1.75
128.7
1.93
130.9
1.73
132.0
0.87
133.3
1.00
134.9
1.16
136.4
1.14
MANUFACTURING………………………………………………
Percentage change…………………………………………
331.5
1.93
333.7
0.68
336.1
0.71
338.2
0.63
339.6
0.41
339.2
-0.13
338.0
-0.36
335.9
-0.60
333.7
-0.68
330.6
-0.92
327.3
-1.00
DURABLE GOODS……………………………………………
Percentage change…………………………………………
211.7
2.99
214.8
1.47
218.1
1.53
221.1
1.40
223.2
0.94
223.8
0.25
223.8
0.02
223.3
-0.23
222.6
-0.31
221.1
-0.68
219.3
-0.79
NONDURABLE GOODS……………………………………
Percentage change…………………………………………
119.8
0.10
119.0
-0.72
118.0
-0.77
117.1
-0.79
116.4
-0.60
115.4
-0.85
114.2
-1.08
112.6
-1.34
111.0
-1.41
109.5
-1.41
107.9
-1.42
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES……………………
Percentage change…………………………………………
607.5
2.60
618.9
1.88
625.7
1.09
632.8
1.13
638.1
0.85
641.1
0.46
642.9
0.29
644.9
0.30
647.5
0.40
649.5
0.31
651.6
0.33
WHOLESALE TRADE………………………………………
Percentage change…………………………………………
127.0
2.99
130.1
2.42
131.0
0.70
132.1
0.86
133.2
0.83
134.2
0.72
134.7
0.42
135.0
0.23
135.4
0.29
135.7
0.20
136.2
0.36
RETAIL TRADE………………………………………………
Percentage change…………………………………………
327.8
2.19
332.8
1.53
336.3
1.03
339.4
0.94
342.1
0.78
342.5
0.13
343.0
0.14
343.5
0.14
344.2
0.21
344.7
0.15
345.2
0.13
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES…………………………
Percentage change…………………………………………
152.7
3.15
156.0
2.19
158.4
1.56
161.2
1.77
162.9
1.03
164.4
0.92
165.2
0.48
166.3
0.71
167.8
0.90
169.1
0.72
170.2
0.70
INFORMATION…………………………………………………
Percentage change…………………………………………
43.4
-1.27
42.5
-2.01
42.6
0.36
42.7
0.21
43.0
0.55
43.3
0.72
43.6
0.70
43.9
0.84
44.3
0.77
44.7
0.96
45.0
0.62
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES………………………………………
Percentage change…………………………………………
144.8
2.34
147.6
1.94
148.8
0.79
150.3
0.99
151.8
1.03
151.7
-0.08
151.8
0.10
152.0
0.12
152.0
0.01
152.1
0.05
152.1
-0.02
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES…………………
Percentage change…………………………………………
383.0
2.80
393.8
2.81
403.8
2.55
416.0
3.01
429.5
3.26
442.8
3.09
455.9
2.97
468.6
2.78
481.9
2.83
495.7
2.87
509.3
2.74
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES…………………………
Percentage change…………………………………………
409.8
1.78
417.9
1.98
425.8
1.89
433.8
1.88
441.9
1.86
449.3
1.67
457.3
1.80
465.3
1.75
473.2
1.69
481.2
1.68
489.1
1.66
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY……………………………………
Percentage change…………………………………………
305.9
3.28
313.6
2.54
319.5
1.86
325.1
1.75
329.9
1.49
333.6
1.11
337.3
1.12
341.6
1.25
345.2
1.08
349.3
1.17
351.9
0.74
OTHER SERVICES………………………………………………
Percentage change…………………………………………
104.8
-0.97
103.6
-1.11
102.4
-1.19
102.6
0.18
102.7
0.11
102.7
0.00
102.8
0.05
102.9
0.17
103.2
0.29
102.9
-0.34
103.0
0.10
GOVERNMENT…………………………………………………
Percentage change…………………………………………
425.6
0.10
428.7
0.73
430.4
0.40
432.3
0.42
434.9
0.61
437.8
0.67
440.2
0.56
442.8
0.59
445.7
0.66
448.8
0.69
452.0
0.71
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN…………………………………………
Percentage change…………………………………………
47.4
-1.06
46.5
-1.95
45.8
-1.43
45.1
-1.65
44.4
-1.58
43.9
-1.09
43.3
-1.24
42.9
-0.89
42.7
-0.63
42.4
-0.62
42.1
-0.64
STATE & LOCAL………………………………………………
Percentage change…………………………………………
378.2
0.24
382.3
1.07
384.6
0.62
387.2
0.67
390.6
0.87
393.9
0.87
396.9
0.76
399.9
0.75
403.1
0.80
406.4
0.83
409.9
0.85
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
2015
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Forecast Data
2019
2020
APPENDIX A
30
Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector (thousands of jobs)
Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs)
January 2016
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
TOTAL DURABLE GOODS……………………
Percentage change………..……………
211.7
2.99
214.8
1.47
218.1
1.53
221.1
1.40
223.2
0.94
WOOD PRODUCTS………………………
Percentage change………..……………
11.6
3.40
11.8
1.90
12.0
1.55
12.2
1.29
NONMETALLIC MINERALS………………
Percentage change………..……………
11.7
-1.68
11.6
-0.98
11.5
-0.97
PRIMARY METALS………….……………
Percentage change………..……………
10.3
1.90
10.4
1.07
FABRICATED METALS…………………..
Percentage change………..……………
35.2
2.28
MACHINERY…………………………………
Percentage change………..……………
Forecast Data
2020
2022
2023
2024
2025
223.8
0.25
223.8
0.02
223.3
-0.23
222.6
-0.31
221.1
-0.68
219.3
-0.79
12.3
0.79
12.3
-0.11
12.2
-0.34
12.2
-0.30
12.1
-0.31
12.1
-0.38
12.1
-0.29
11.4
-0.63
11.4
-0.16
11.4
-0.06
11.4
-0.06
11.4
-0.13
11.3
-0.34
11.3
-0.35
11.2
-0.91
10.4
0.64
10.5
0.91
10.6
0.90
10.6
-0.46
10.5
-0.53
10.5
-0.46
10.4
-0.69
10.3
-1.08
10.1
-1.48
35.3
0.29
35.4
0.47
35.5
0.16
35.7
0.67
35.4
-0.93
35.1
-0.85
34.8
-0.72
34.6
-0.70
34.3
-0.68
34.2
-0.57
26.2
1.94
26.1
-0.38
26.4
1.04
26.7
1.12
26.9
0.86
27.1
0.53
27.0
-0.44
26.7
-1.09
26.4
-0.96
26.1
-0.99
25.8
-1.14
COMPUTERS & ELECTRONICS…………
Percentage change………..……………
5.1
1.16
5.1
0.03
5.0
-2.64
4.8
-2.30
4.7
-3.35
4.5
-4.04
4.3
-4.10
4.1
-3.74
4.0
-4.20
3.8
-4.07
3.7
-4.15
ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT, APPLIANCES
& COMPONENTS…………..……………
Percentage change………..……………
19.9
2.58
20.2
1.67
20.5
1.36
20.8
1.50
21.1
1.15
21.2
0.83
21.3
0.57
21.4
0.09
21.4
-0.05
21.3
-0.41
21.2
-0.48
TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT………
Percentage change………..……………
67.5
5.39
70.0
3.71
72.5
3.67
74.9
3.23
76.3
1.87
77.4
1.43
78.2
1.09
78.7
0.64
79.0
0.43
78.8
-0.34
78.4
-0.52
FURNITURE…………………………………
Percentage change………..……………
9.2
1.38
9.3
0.68
9.3
0.91
9.3
-0.27
9.3
-0.63
9.1
-1.76
8.9
-2.62
8.7
-2.38
8.5
-2.30
8.2
-2.84
7.9
-3.25
MISCELLANEOUS DURABLES…………
Percentage change………..……………
15.1
2.39
15.1
0.02
15.0
-0.49
15.0
0.02
15.0
0.20
14.9
-0.63
15.0
0.12
14.9
-0.10
14.9
-0.03
14.9
-0.35
14.8
-0.23
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
|
|
31
APPENDIX A
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2021
January 2016
|
2017
2018
2019
119.8
0.10
119.0
-0.72
118.0
-0.77
117.1
-0.79
116.4
-0.60
FOOD………………………………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
32.9
0.54
32.9
0.12
33.0
0.12
33.0
0.08
BEVERAGE & TOBACCO………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
5.5
0.77
5.5
0.05
5.4
-0.99
TEXTILE MILLS, TEXTILE MILL
PRODUCTS & APPAREL……………………
Percentage change………..…………………
9.6
-4.10
9.2
-4.09
PAPER……………………………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
14.3
-2.23
PRINTING & RELATED SUPPORT……………
Percentage change………..…………………
Forecast Data
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
115.4
-0.85
114.2
-1.08
112.6
-1.34
111.0
-1.41
109.5
-1.41
107.9
-1.42
33.0
0.09
32.9
-0.40
32.7
-0.53
32.5
-0.60
32.3
-0.75
32.0
-0.71
31.8
-0.62
5.4
-0.89
5.3
-0.75
5.2
-1.57
5.1
-1.49
5.1
-1.38
5.0
-1.62
4.9
-1.75
4.8
-1.55
8.7
-5.00
8.3
-4.85
8.0
-3.57
7.7
-3.64
7.4
-3.82
7.1
-4.00
6.9
-3.86
6.6
-3.72
6.4
-3.27
14.0
-2.28
13.6
-2.40
13.4
-2.04
13.1
-2.00
12.8
-1.85
12.6
-1.84
12.4
-1.72
12.2
-1.64
12.0
-1.60
11.8
-1.54
9.0
-4.32
8.8
-2.25
8.8
-0.59
8.7
-1.52
8.6
-1.03
8.4
-1.97
8.3
-1.67
8.1
-1.62
8.0
-1.54
7.8
-1.93
7.7
-1.97
CHEMICALS………………………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
25.2
-0.40
25.0
-1.02
24.7
-1.09
24.4
-1.00
24.2
-0.92
23.9
-1.30
23.5
-1.51
23.2
-1.48
22.9
-1.42
22.6
-1.38
22.2
-1.62
PLASTICS & RUBBER…………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
21.3
2.90
21.6
1.62
21.9
1.51
22.2
1.32
22.5
1.08
22.7
1.25
22.8
0.30
22.6
-1.02
22.3
-1.29
22.0
-1.34
21.7
-1.48
MISCELLANEOUS NONDURABLE GOODS…
Percentage change………..…………………
2.1
35.66
2.0
-3.74
1.9
-5.64
1.8
-6.17
1.7
-3.23
1.7
-1.90
1.7
-2.05
1.6
-2.01
1.6
-2.08
1.6
-1.88
1.5
-2.07
TOTAL NONDURABLE GOODS…………………
Percentage change………..…………………
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
2016
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2015
APPENDIX A
32
Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs)
Table 8: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (2009 dollars)
January 2016
Forecast Data
2019
2020
2018
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
44349
0.66
44652
0.68
44929
0.62
45141
0.47
45276
0.30
45354
0.17
45451
0.21
45592
0.31
45765
0.38
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING
AND CONSTRUCTION………………………
Percentage change………..………………
49991
5.88
51772
3.56
52152
0.73
52564
0.79
52937
0.71
53223
0.54
53442
0.41
53667
0.42
53843
0.33
53983
0.26
54215
0.43
MANUFACTURING………………………………
Percentage change………..………………
52464
1.67
54520
3.92
55037
0.95
55472
0.79
55749
0.50
56050
0.54
56195
0.26
56361
0.30
56717
0.63
56899
0.32
57077
0.31
DURABLE GOODS……………………………
Percentage change………..………………
50844
0.70
52378
3.02
52841
0.88
53308
0.89
53596
0.54
53812
0.40
53902
0.17
54070
0.31
54332
0.48
54495
0.30
54627
0.24
NONDURABLE GOODS……………………
Percentage change………..………………
55333
3.41
58393
5.53
59097
1.21
59559
0.78
59877
0.53
60388
0.85
60690
0.50
60903
0.35
61496
0.97
61753
0.42
62054
0.49
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES……
Percentage change………..………………
39037
0.83
39884
2.17
40333
1.13
40792
1.14
41238
1.09
41525
0.69
41801
0.67
41995
0.46
42212
0.52
42497
0.67
42877
0.89
WHOLESALE TRADE………………………
Percentage change………..………………
59353
0.34
60621
2.14
61218
0.98
61845
1.03
62478
1.02
62735
0.41
63129
0.63
63209
0.13
63453
0.39
63985
0.84
64510
0.82
RETAIL TRADE………………………………
Percentage change………..………………
26683
0.76
27411
2.73
27715
1.11
28022
1.11
28385
1.30
28692
1.08
28939
0.86
29191
0.87
29409
0.75
29610
0.68
29966
1.20
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES…………
Percentage change………..………………
48721
1.06
49284
1.16
49809
1.06
50346
1.08
50765
0.83
50860
0.19
51025
0.32
51124
0.20
51242
0.23
51441
0.39
51666
0.44
INFORMATION…………………………………
Percentage change………..………………
57804
3.39
59378
2.72
59802
0.71
60193
0.65
60385
0.32
60658
0.45
60855
0.32
61009
0.25
61114
0.17
61196
0.13
61434
0.39
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES………………………
Percentage change………..………………
64642
2.24
66426
2.76
67022
0.90
67485
0.69
67889
0.60
68196
0.45
68390
0.29
68477
0.13
68761
0.42
68995
0.34
69196
0.29
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES…
Percentage change………..………………
51066
7.23
51350
0.56
51670
0.62
52043
0.72
52406
0.70
52766
0.69
53030
0.50
53289
0.49
53490
0.38
53760
0.51
54017
0.48
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES…………
Percentage change………..………………
44065
2.93
44906
1.91
45191
0.63
45568
0.83
46026
1.01
46433
0.88
46733
0.65
46930
0.42
47088
0.34
47432
0.73
47756
0.68
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY……………………
Percentage change………..………………
21137
4.86
21730
2.81
21979
1.14
22205
1.03
22371
0.75
22532
0.72
22578
0.21
22591
0.06
22588
-0.01
22689
0.45
22813
0.55
OTHER SERVICES………………………………
Percentage change………..………………
40498
4.20
41325
2.04
41442
0.28
41671
0.55
41670
0.00
41405
-0.64
41122
-0.68
40808
-0.76
40499
-0.76
40220
-0.69
39979
-0.60
GOVERNMENT…………………………………
Percentage change………..………………
39726
0.81
40211
1.22
39940
-0.68
39706
-0.59
39465
-0.61
39201
-0.67
38884
-0.81
38529
-0.91
38169
-0.93
37827
-0.90
37506
-0.85
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN…………………………
Percentage change………..………………
75100
4.51
77290
2.92
77198
-0.12
77218
0.03
77314
0.12
77352
0.05
77323
-0.04
77202
-0.16
77062
-0.18
76962
-0.13
76907
-0.07
STATE & LOCAL………………………………
Percentage change………..………………
35267
-0.07
35588
0.91
35389
-0.56
35230
-0.45
35062
-0.48
34849
-0.61
34587
-0.75
34276
-0.90
33952
-0.94
33646
-0.90
33358
-0.85
33
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
APPENDIX A
2017
44058
2.08
|
|
2016
43161
2.86
Forecast Data
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2015
TOTAL NONFARM…………………………………
Percentage change………..………………
January 2016
|
2017
2018
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
47219
3.14
48755
3.25
50131
2.82
51477
2.68
52814
2.60
54155
2.54
55490
2.46
56848
2.45
58265
2.49
59733
2.52
61227
2.50
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING & CONSTRUCTION…
Percentage change………..……………………………
54695
6.18
57291
4.75
58952
2.90
60598
2.79
62228
2.69
63852
2.61
65499
2.58
67268
2.70
69023
2.61
70728
2.47
72532
2.55
MANUFACTURING…………………………………………
Percentage change………..……………………………
57400
1.95
60333
5.11
62214
3.12
63951
2.79
65533
2.47
67243
2.61
68873
2.42
70645
2.57
72707
2.92
74548
2.53
76361
2.43
DURABLE GOODS……………………………………....
Percentage change………..……………………………
55627
0.97
57962
4.20
59731
3.05
61456
2.89
63001
2.51
64558
2.47
66062
2.33
67773
2.59
69650
2.77
71398
2.51
73083
2.36
NONDURABLE GOODS……………………………..
Percentage change………..……………………………
60542
3.71
64619
6.73
66803
3.38
68662
2.78
70385
2.51
72448
2.93
74382
2.67
76338
2.63
78835
3.27
80908
2.63
83020
2.61
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES………….
Percentage change………..……………………………
42707
1.10
44136
3.35
45592
3.30
47027
3.15
48475
3.08
49817
2.77
51232
2.84
52638
2.74
54114
2.80
55679
2.89
57363
3.03
WHOLESALE TRADE……………………………………
Percentage change………..……………………………
64934
0.61
67084
3.31
69200
3.15
71298
3.03
73442
3.01
75264
2.48
77371
2.80
79228
2.40
81343
2.67
83833
3.06
86306
2.95
RETAIL TRADE……………………………………………
Percentage change………..……………………………
29193
1.03
30333
3.91
31329
3.28
32305
3.12
33367
3.29
34422
3.16
35468
3.04
36589
3.16
37701
3.04
38795
2.90
40090
3.34
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES………………………
Percentage change………..……………………………
53300
1.33
54539
2.32
56304
3.24
58041
3.09
59674
2.81
61017
2.25
62536
2.49
64081
2.47
65689
2.51
67397
2.60
69122
2.56
INFORMATION………………………………………………
Percentage change………..……………………………
63239
3.67
65708
3.90
67600
2.88
69393
2.65
70983
2.29
72772
2.52
74584
2.49
76471
2.53
78344
2.45
80177
2.34
82190
2.51
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES…………………………………....
Percentage change………..……………………………
70721
2.52
73508
3.94
75761
3.06
77800
2.69
79803
2.58
81814
2.52
83819
2.45
85830
2.40
88148
2.70
90396
2.55
92574
2.41
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES………………
Percentage change………..……………………………
55865
7.52
56824
1.72
58407
2.79
59997
2.72
61603
2.68
63303
2.76
64994
2.67
66794
2.77
68571
2.66
70436
2.72
72267
2.60
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………………………
Percentage change………..……………………………
48207
3.21
49693
3.08
51083
2.80
52533
2.84
54104
2.99
55706
2.96
57276
2.82
58823
2.70
60364
2.62
62145
2.95
63891
2.81
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY…………………………………
Percentage change………..……………………………
23125
5.14
24047
3.99
24845
3.32
25599
3.04
26297
2.73
27031
2.79
27672
2.37
28317
2.33
28956
2.26
29727
2.66
30520
2.67
OTHER SERVICES…………………………………………
Percentage change………..……………………………
44306
4.48
45730
3.22
46846
2.44
48041
2.55
48982
1.96
49673
1.41
50398
1.46
51149
1.49
51917
1.50
52695
1.50
53486
1.50
GOVERNMENT………………………………………………
Percentage change………..……………………………
43461
1.08
44497
2.38
45146
1.46
45774
1.39
46390
1.35
47029
1.38
47656
1.33
48292
1.34
48930
1.32
49560
1.29
50177
1.24
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN………………………………………
Percentage change………..……………………………
82162
4.79
85528
4.10
87263
2.03
89019
2.01
90881
2.09
92799
2.11
94766
2.12
96766
2.11
98788
2.09
100833
2.07
102890
2.04
STATE & LOCAL…………………………………………
Percentage change………..……………………………
38582
0.20
39381
2.07
40002
1.58
40614
1.53
41214
1.48
41808
1.44
42389
1.39
42961
1.35
43524
1.31
44081
1.28
44628
1.24
TOTAL NONFARM………………………………………………
Percentage change………..……………………………
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
2016
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Forecast Data
2019
2020
2015
APPENDIX A
34
Table 9: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (current dollars)
Table 10: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate
January 2016
2015
2016
2017
2018
Forecast Data
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE (THOUS)…………
Percentage change………………………
3063
2.33
3060
-0.10
3079
0.63
3103
0.78
3124
0.66
3148
0.78
3170
0.69
3191
0.66
3209
0.57
3226
0.52
3243
0.51
EMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)…………
Percentage change………………………
2882
3.05
2890
0.28
2913
0.77
2938
0.89
2960
0.73
2985
0.84
3007
0.74
3028
0.70
3046
0.59
3063
0.56
3078
0.49
UNEMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)……
Percentage change………………………
181
-7.97
170
-6.20
167
-1.72
165
-1.07
164
-0.61
163
-0.41
163
-0.14
163
-0.03
163
0.17
163
-0.11
165
0.95
PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT)………
Percentage change………………………
57.7
1.12
57.0
-1.26
56.7
-0.49
56.5
-0.30
56.3
-0.41
56.2
-0.27
56.0
-0.34
55.8
-0.36
55.5
-0.43
55.3
-0.43
55.1
-0.39
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (PERCENT)………
5.9
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
|
|
35
APPENDIX A
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
January 2016
|
Forecast Data
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
TOTAL TAXABLE SALES…………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
102746
5.88
106315
3.47
107755
1.35
109560
1.68
111496
1.77
113387
1.70
115204
1.60
116993
1.55
118691
1.45
120455
1.49
122480
1.68
AUTO DEALERS…………………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
10751
10.95
11185
4.04
11279
0.85
11615
2.98
11865
2.15
12159
2.48
12495
2.76
12841
2.78
13150
2.40
13453
2.31
13766
2.33
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS….
Percentage change………..…………………
4420
8.09
4591
3.87
4652
1.33
4729
1.66
4807
1.65
4899
1.90
4967
1.40
5040
1.46
5114
1.47
5186
1.41
5274
1.70
MISC DURABLE GOODS………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
16866
4.83
17537
3.98
17799
1.49
18085
1.61
18449
2.01
18828
2.06
19247
2.22
19687
2.29
20056
1.87
20471
2.07
20906
2.12
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES……………
Percentage change………..…………………
10958
6.81
11301
3.13
11510
1.85
11762
2.19
12057
2.51
12312
2.12
12605
2.38
12885
2.22
13180
2.29
13443
1.99
13786
2.55
FOOD STORES…………………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
9858
3.91
10024
1.69
10065
0.41
10101
0.36
10209
1.06
10329
1.18
10414
0.82
10518
1.00
10654
1.30
10766
1.05
10917
1.40
LIQUOR STORES………………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
882
7.69
909
3.05
924
1.67
946
2.38
974
2.97
1001
2.71
1020
1.91
1041
2.03
1058
1.66
1079
1.96
1102
2.19
HOTELS AND MOTELS…………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
2953
11.78
3053
3.37
3172
3.91
3299
4.02
3425
3.81
3497
2.10
3573
2.17
3648
2.10
3733
2.31
3836
2.78
3949
2.94
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE………………
Percentage change………..…………………
31419
5.11
32699
4.07
33270
1.75
33858
1.77
34432
1.70
34948
1.50
35363
1.19
35712
0.99
36041
0.92
36424
1.06
36869
1.22
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS…………………
Percentage change………..…………………
8650
4.36
9037
4.47
9167
1.43
9310
1.57
9454
1.55
9599
1.53
9729
1.35
9846
1.21
9962
1.18
10091
1.29
10236
1.44
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION……
Percentage change………..…………………
5989
3.59
5980
-0.16
5917
-1.05
5854
-1.07
5823
-0.51
5814
-0.16
5792
-0.39
5776
-0.27
5743
-0.56
5706
-0.66
5675
-0.54
PER CAPITA ($)……………………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
15414
4.78
15786
2.42
15838
0.33
15942
0.66
16064
0.76
16178
0.71
16280
0.63
16376
0.59
16459
0.51
16551
0.56
16677
0.77
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
2016
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2015
APPENDIX A
36
Table 11: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of 2009 dollars)
Table 12: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of current dollars)
January 2016
Forecast Data
2019
2020
2016
2017
2018
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
TOTAL TAXABLE SALES…………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
112414
6.17
117652
4.66
121807
3.53
126307
3.69
131066
3.77
136033
3.79
141197
3.80
146646
3.86
152158
3.76
157821
3.72
163864
3.83
AUTO DEALERS…………………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
11762
11.26
12378
5.24
12751
3.01
13391
5.02
13947
4.16
14588
4.59
15314
4.98
16097
5.11
16858
4.73
17627
4.56
18418
4.49
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS….
Percentage change………..…………………
4836
8.39
5080
5.06
5258
3.51
5452
3.68
5651
3.65
5877
4.00
6088
3.59
6317
3.76
6556
3.78
6795
3.64
7056
3.85
MISC DURABLE GOODS………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
18454
5.12
19407
5.16
20120
3.67
20850
3.63
21687
4.02
22589
4.16
23590
4.43
24677
4.61
25711
4.19
26822
4.32
27970
4.28
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES……………
Percentage change………..…………………
11989
7.10
12506
4.31
13011
4.04
13560
4.22
14173
4.52
14771
4.22
15449
4.59
16150
4.54
16897
4.62
17613
4.24
18444
4.72
FOOD STORES…………………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
10785
4.19
11093
2.86
11377
2.57
11645
2.35
12001
3.05
12392
3.26
12764
3.00
13183
3.29
13658
3.60
14106
3.28
14605
3.54
LIQUOR STORES………………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
965
7.98
1006
4.24
1045
3.86
1091
4.41
1145
5.00
1201
4.82
1250
4.11
1304
4.35
1356
3.97
1413
4.21
1475
4.35
HOTELS AND MOTELS…………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
3231
12.09
3378
4.55
3586
6.15
3804
6.08
4027
5.85
4196
4.20
4380
4.38
4573
4.42
4785
4.64
5026
5.04
5283
5.11
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE………………
Percentage change………..…………………
34376
5.40
36186
5.27
37609
3.93
39033
3.79
40475
3.69
41928
3.59
43341
3.37
44763
3.28
46203
3.22
47723
3.29
49326
3.36
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS…………………
Percentage change………..…………………
9464
4.64
10001
5.67
10362
3.61
10733
3.58
11114
3.54
11516
3.62
11923
3.54
12341
3.51
12771
3.48
13221
3.52
13695
3.58
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION……
Percentage change………..…………………
6552
3.87
6617
0.99
6688
1.07
6748
0.90
6845
1.44
6975
1.90
7098
1.76
7239
1.99
7363
1.70
7475
1.53
7592
1.56
PER CAPITA ($)……………………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
16864
5.07
17469
3.59
17903
2.48
18379
2.66
18884
2.75
19409
2.78
19953
2.80
20527
2.88
21100
2.79
21685
2.77
22312
2.89
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Forecast Data
|
|
37
APPENDIX A
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2015
Table 13: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of 2009 dollars)
January 2016
|
NATURAL RESOURCES & MINING......................................................................................................
3,216
3,343
3,468
3,594
3,721
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
6.03
3.95
3.74
3.63
3.53
3,850
3.46
3,978
3.33
4,106
3.23
4,229
2.98
4,353
2.94
4,486
3.06
10,671
2.03
10,879
1.95
11,109
2.12
11,340
2.08
11,568
2.01
11,814
2.12
12,058
2.07
MANUFACTURING.............................................................................
47,428 48,617 49,807 51,005
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
2.86
2.51
2.45
2.41
52,249
2.44
53,379
2.16
54,554
2.20
55,781
2.25
57,041
2.26
58,101
1.86
59,291
2.05
DURABLE GOODS........................................................................
27,410 28,262 29,134 30,039
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
3.63
3.11
3.08
3.11
30,971
3.10
31,773
2.59
32,629
2.69
33,532
2.77
34,465
2.78
35,245
2.26
36,122
2.49
617
1.50
625
1.27
633
1.34
1,057
1,061
1,065
Table 14: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars)
WOOD PRODUCTS………………………………………….............
575
583
591
600
608
History 1.01
Forecast1.29
Data
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
1.49
1.37
1.48
2015:2 2015:3
2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
NONMETALLIC MINERAL PRODUCTS……………………………..
1,038
1,042
1,046
1,049
1,053
January 2016
642
651
1.41 Annual
1.40
2014
2015
1,066
2016
1,067
660
1.47
2017
1,070
TOTAL NONFARM………………………………………………..
47346 47481 47891 48241 48586 48925 49266 49616 49956 50303 50649 50984 45782 47219 48755 50131
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
0.49
0.36
0.42
0.28
0.35
0.40
0.39
0.33
0.12
0.10
0.23
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 10.68
1.14
3.50
2.96
2.89
2.82
2.82
2.87
2.77
2.81
2.78
2.67
2.62
3.14
3.25
2.82
%
Chg Same METALS………….…………………………….................
Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
3.76
3.73
2.62
3.04
2.85 1,293
2.82
2.82
2.81 1,312
2.76
2.62
3.25
2.82
PRIMARY
1,240 3.44
1,2514.51 1,260
1,272 2.871,281
1,301
1,3233.14 1,330
1,341
change………………………………………………………………………..
0.98 563380.93
0.67 57489
0.9557866 0.75
0.8859169 0.63
0.83 51513
0.84
0.55 58952
0.81
NATURALPercentage
RESOURCES,
MINING & CONSTRUCTION…… 54764 56036
56717 57094
58296 58734
59609 60009
54695 57291
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 26.46
9.62
2.17
2.72
2.69
2.79
2.65
3.01
3.04
2.99
3.01
2.71
4.71
6.18
4.75
2.90
FABRICATED
METAL
PRODUCTS…………………..
3,616 8.61
3,6439.83 3,677
3,701 2.713,743
3,711
3,6926.18 3,684
3,680
%
Chg Same Qtr Last
Yr………………………………..
6.18
8.25
4.26
2.59
2.78 3,725
2.87
2.92
3.01 3,701
2.94
4.71
4.75
2.90
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
2.09
0.75
0.94
0.63
1.14
-0.47
-0.39
-0.26
-0.24
-0.22
-0.11
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
1.93
1.82
1.98
1.86
1.57
1.59
1.49
1.59
1.50
1.32
1.53
MANUFACTURING……………………………………………
57619 58423 59116 59605 60062 60584 61081 61537 61954 62435 62929 63334 56302 57400 60333 62214
%
Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 25.45
5.70
3.10
3.52
3.02 3,404
2.74
3.15
3.20 3,510
2.60
2.85
5.11
3.12
MACHINERY…………………………………………………………
3,119 4.83
3,1763.35 3,239
3,299 3.323,351
3,455
3,5631.95 3,610
3,665
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.58
4.07
3.24
9.48
4.24
3.70
3.32
3.24
3.15
3.06
3.03
2.92
2.85
1.95
5.11
3.12
DURABLE GOODS……………………………………......
55869 56305 56988 57331 57693 58176 58650 59072 59451 59941 60460 60849 55092 55627 57962 59731
COMPUTER
& ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS……………
1,539 4.94
1,6262.43 1,710
1,799 3.301,895
2,102
2,3290.97 2,448
2,585
%
Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………………………
20.29
3.16
2.55
3.39
2.91 1,993
2.59
3.34
3.51 2,212
2.60
3.45
4.20
3.05
% Chg
Same Qtr Last
Yr………………………………..
1.39
2.50
3.26
3.32
3.04
3.05
3.09
3.01
4.20
3.05
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
5.73 1.285.667.47 5.17
5.22 2.92 5.32
5.20 3.03 5.47
5.22 3.45
5.310.97 5.09
5.58
NONDURABLE GOODS……………………………..
60716 62180 62910 63681 64330 64949 65517 66055 66566 67057 67531 67993 58379 60542 64619 66803
ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT, APPLIANCES
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 34.67 10.00
4.78
4.99
4.14
3.91
3.54
3.33
3.13
2.98
2.86
2.76
2.03
3.71
6.73
3.38
&
COMPONENTS.............................................................................
3,218 6.65
3,283
3,452 4.143,539
3,711
3,9113.71 4,000
4,111
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
4.70
6.82
12.98 3,370
5.95
4.45
3.73 3,613
3.48
3.24
3.07 3,803
2.93
2.03
6.73
3.38
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
2.51
2.03
2.65
2.44
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES………….
42794 42887
% Chg Prev
Qtr SAAR………..……………………………
8.51
0.87
MOTOR
VEHICLES,
BODIES
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.84
2.02
2.52
2.08
2.71
2.50
12,269
12,764
13,264
13,805
43218 43594 43970 44311 44670 45047 45414 45778 46130 46497
3.12
3.53
3.50
3.13
3.28
3.42
3.30
3.24
3.11
3.22
-0.79
3.97
2.75
3.32
3.36
3.33
3.28
3.31
3.27
3.22
& TRAILERS, & PARTS.............................................................................
10,107 10,616 11,134
11,699
2.83
2.28
2.78
14,373
14,815
15,296
42242 42707 44136 45592
2.75
1.10
3.35
3.30
2.75
1.10
3.35
3.30
WHOLESALE
TRADE…………………………………….
65438 65107
66259 66802
68436 68952
69949 70508
64934 67084
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
6.12 656245.04
4.88 67371
5.0767904 4.88
4.0369463 3.92
4.08 64537
4.11
3.08 69200
3.24
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 12.31 -2.00
3.21
3.93
3.32
3.45
3.20
3.17
3.05
3.00
2.83
3.23
3.97
0.61
3.31
3.15
OTHER
TRANSPORTATION
EQUIPMENT………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
385 -0.50 3924.24 401
408 3.47 416
421 3.10 428
435 3.974400.61 447
454
% Chg Same
Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.85
0.78
2.09
3.48
3.28
3.22
3.01
3.03
3.31
3.15
change………………………………………………………………………..
2.12 297481.81
2.17 30443
1.8930692 1.87
1.3831466 1.61
1.48 28895
1.26
1.64 31329
1.51
RETAILPercentage
TRADE…………………………………………….
29138 29534
29973 30226
30946 31202
31700 31933
29193 30333
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 11.59
5.56
2.93
3.05
3.42
2.90
3.32
3.35
3.35
3.43
3.01
2.97
2.80
1.03
3.91
3.28
FURNITURE……………………………………………………………..
473
479
484
487
488
483
475
468
461
452
444
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.77
3.31
-1.54
5.72
3.73
3.07
3.17
3.25
3.23
3.36
3.28
3.19
2.80
1.03
3.91
3.28
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
2.09
1.22
1.07
0.61
0.17
-0.89
-1.76
-1.52
-1.44
-1.98
-1.76
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES…………………………… 53522 53048 53448 53897 54358 54738 55162 55636 56083 56519 56977 57407 52602 53300 54539 56304
%
Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………………………
2.58 -3.49
3.47
2.82
3.48 2,402
3.25
3.15
3.28 2,588
3.05
1.71
2.32
3.24
MISCELLANEOUS
DURABLE GOODS………………
2,101 3.05
2,1713.40 2,222
2,274 3.142,329
2,496
2,6651.33 2,740
2,817
% Chg
Same Qtr Last
Yr………………………………..
2.70
1.23
1.56
3.18
3.23
3.17
3.29
3.18
2.32
3.24
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
2.02 -0.463.331.34 2.35
2.33 3.21 2.42
3.14 3.25 3.92
3.69 1.71
2.961.33 2.83
2.79
INFORMATION…………………………………………………… 62396 63946 64536 65034 65505 65925 66370 66806 67331 67866 68396 68793 60999 63239 65708 67600
NONDURABLE
GOODS………………………………….
20,017 3.74
20,3553.1220,673
21,278
21,925
22,576
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………………………
2.06 10.31
2.93 20,966
2.59
2.73
2.65 21,606
3.18
3.22
3.16 22,249
2.34
4.85
3.6722,856
3.90 23,170
2.88
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
1.82 10.101.684.76 1.56
1.42 2.84 1.49
1.54 2.94 1.47
1.48 4.85
1.473.67 1.24
1.37
% Chg
Same Qtr Last
Yr………………………………..
0.94
3.55
4.98
3.09
2.72
2.79
3.05
2.97
3.90
2.88
FINANCIAL
70683 71177
72635 7,101
73243 73807
74950 75522
76539 77045
70721 7,812
73508 75761
FOODACTIVITIES………………………………….....
AND BEVERAGE & TOBACCO.........................
6,815 71949
6,966
7,233743487,371
7,470760337,562
7,652 68979
7,731
7,903
% Chg
Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………………………
9.65
2.82
3.39
3.12
3.28
3.09
2.69
2.67
3.94
3.06
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
2.46 4.412.213.87 1.94
1.86 2.96 1.90
1.34 2.73 1.24
1.19 4.12
1.032.52 1.05
1.16
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
3.31
3.87
2.68
5.16
3.62
3.70
3.33
3.19
3.11
3.01
2.95
2.79
4.12
2.52
3.94
3.06
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
Forecast Data
CONSTRUCTION................................................................................
9,756 10,036 10,248 10,458
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
3.12
2.87
2.11
2.05
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT..........................................................................
281,548 287,872 294,064 300,449 307,195 313,710 320,540 327,536 334,562 341,669 349,209
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
2.40
2.25
2.15
2.17
2.25
2.12
2.18
2.18
2.15
2.12
2.21
APPENDIX A
38
Forecast Data
Table 13: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of 2009 dollars)
January 2016
Forecast Data
2015
2016
2025
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
GROSSTEXTILE
DOMESTIC
PRODUCT..........................................................................
281,548
MILLS
& TEXTILE PRODUCT MILLS
441 287,872
435 294,064
429 300,449
422 307,195
415 313,710
409 320,540
402 327,536
396 334,562
390 341,669
385 349,209
380
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
change………………………………………………………………………..
2.40
2.25
2.15
2.17
2.25
2.12
2.18
2.18
2.15
2.12
2.21
Percentage
-1.57
-1.49
-1.38
-1.63
-1.56
-1.59
-1.59
-1.47
-1.51
-1.40
-1.34
NATURAL
RESOURCES
& MINING......................................................................................................
3,216
3,343
3,468
3,594
3,721
APPAREL
& LEATHER
PRODUCTS………………………………………………………………………..
303
294
285
277
269
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
change………………………………………………………………………..
6.03
3.95
3.74
3.63
3.53
Percentage
-3.00
-2.95
-2.92
-2.91
-2.84
3,850
261
3.46
-2.84
3,978
254
3.33
-2.79
4,106
247
3.23
-2.68
4,229
241
2.98
-2.56
4,353
235
2.94
-2.42
4,486
230
3.06
-2.08
10,671
2,950
2.03
1.58
10,879
3,001
1.95
1.72
11,109
3,053
2.12
1.73
11,340
3,103
2.08
1.64
11,568
3,152
2.01
1.59
11,814
3,201
2.12
1.53
12,058
3,247
2.07
1.44
MANUFACTURING.............................................................................
47,428
PRINTING & RELATED SUPPORT………………………………………………………………………..
1,158 48,617
1,155 49,807
1,153 51,005
1,152 52,249
1,153
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
change………………………………………………………………………..
2.86
2.51
2.45
2.41
2.44
Percentage
1.55
-0.28
-0.19
-0.02
0.04
53,379
1,156
2.16
0.27
54,554
1,160
2.20
0.35
55,781
1,164
2.25
0.37
57,041
1,170
2.26
0.46
58,101
1,175
1.86
0.46
59,291
1,181
2.05
0.48
CONSTRUCTION................................................................................
9,756 10,036
PAPER………………………………………………………………………..
2,776
2,818 10,248
2,861 10,458
2,904
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
change………………………………………………………………………..
3.12
2.87
2.11
2.05
Percentage
1.63
1.54
1.51
1.52
DURABLE
GOODS........................................................................
27,410
CHEMICALS………………………………………………………………………..
6,157 28,262
6,328 29,134
6,494 30,039
6,634
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
change………………………………………………………………………..
3.63
3.11
3.08
3.11
Percentage
2.65
2.79
2.61
2.16
30,971
6,783
3.10
2.25
31,773
6,978
2.59
2.87
32,629
7,163
2.69
2.65
33,532
7,355
2.77
2.68
34,465
7,557
2.78
2.75
35,245
7,705
2.26
1.96
36,122
7,876
2.49
2.22
WOOD PRODUCTS………………………………………….............
575
583
591
600
PLASTICS
& RUBBER………………………………………………………………………..
1,939
1,931
1,924
1,917
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
change………………………………………………………………………..
1.01
1.49
1.37
1.48
Percentage
-0.46
-0.40
-0.37
-0.34
608
1,911
1.29
-0.31
617
1,907
1.50
-0.21
625
1,906
1.27
-0.07
633
1,906
1.34
0.00
642
1,909
1.41
0.13
651
1,915
1.40
0.36
660
1,923
1.47
0.41
NONMETALLIC MINERAL
PRODUCTS……………………………..
1,038
1,042
1,046
1,049
MISCELLANEOUS
NONDURABLE
GOODS………………429
428
427
426
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
change………………………………………………………………………..
0.49
0.36
0.42
0.28
Percentage
-0.35
-0.32
-0.23
-0.21
1,053
425
0.35
-0.15
1,057
424
0.40
-0.14
1,061
425
0.39
0.07
1,065
425
0.33
0.14
1,066
427
0.12
0.37
1,067
428
0.10
0.38
1,070
430
0.23
0.44
PRIMARY
METALS………….…………………………….................
1,240 54,018
1,251 55,058
1,260 56,189
1,272 57,446
1,281
TRADE,
TRANSPORTATION
& UTILITIES………….....................……..................……..................
52,904
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
change………………………………………………………………………..
0.98
0.93
0.67
0.95
0.75
Percentage
4.33
3.71
3.09
2.88
2.51
1,293
58,646
0.88
2.22
1,301
59,970
0.63
2.00
1,312
61,303
0.83
2.00
1,323
62,635
0.84
2.10
1,330
64,095
0.55
2.00
1,341
65,661
0.81
2.44
3,711
22,020
-0.39
3.03
3,701
22,646
-0.26
2.84
3,692
23,302
-0.24
2.90
3,684
23,957
-0.22
2.81
3,680
24,685
-0.11
3.04
MACHINERY…………………………………………………………
3,119 19,981
3,176 20,359
3,239 20,784
3,299
RETAIL
TRADE…………………………………………….........................
19,590
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
change………………………………………………………………………..
1.93
1.82
1.98
1.86
Percentage
2.02
2.00
1.89
2.09
3,351
21,208
1.57
2.04
3,404
21,594
1.59
1.82
3,455
22,020
1.49
1.97
3,510
22,425
1.59
1.84
3,563
22,838
1.50
1.84
3,610
23,331
1.32
2.16
3,665
23,870
1.53
2.31
COMPUTER & ELECTRONIC
PRODUCTS……………14,382
1,539 14,655
1,626 14,914
1,710 15,147
1,799
TRANSPORTATION
& UTILITIES…………………………………………….
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
change………………………………………………………………………..
5.73
5.66
5.17
5.22
Percentage
1.73
1.90
1.77
1.56
1,895
15,382
5.32
1.55
1,993
15,679
5.20
1.93
2,102
15,929
5.47
1.60
2,212
16,232
5.22
1.90
2,329
16,495
5.31
1.62
2,448
16,807
5.09
1.89
2,585
17,106
5.58
1.78
ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT, APPLIANCES
INFORMATION……………………………………………………....................................
9,068
9,333
9,599
9,872 10,161 10,450 10,729 11,028 11,346
& COMPONENTS.............................................................................
3,218
3,283
3,370
3,452
3,539
3,613
3,711
3,803
3,911
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
2.71
2.92
2.86
2.84
2.93
2.84
2.67
2.79
2.88
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
2.51
2.03
2.65
2.44
2.52
2.08
2.71
2.50
2.83
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES…………………………………............................
45,432 46,518 47,644 48,773 49,958 51,017 52,190 53,401 54,581
MOTOR
VEHICLES,
BODIES
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
2.53
2.39
2.42
2.37
2.43
2.12
2.30
2.32
2.21
& TRAILERS, & PARTS.............................................................................
10,107 10,616 11,134 11,699 12,269 12,764 13,264 13,805 14,373
PROFESSIONAL
&
BUSINESS
SERVICES………………………….................
33,169
34,390
35,679
37,064
38,483
39,965
41,456
42,960
44,451
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
6.12
5.04
4.88
5.07
4.88
4.03
3.92
4.08
4.11
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
3.99
3.68
3.75
3.88
3.83
3.85
3.73
3.63
3.47
OTHER TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
385
392
401
408
416
421
428
435
440
EDUCATION
& HEALTH
SERVICES………………………...........................
29,853
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
2.12 30,561
1.81 31,251
2.17 31,929
1.89 32,606
1.87 33,245
1.38 33,940
1.61 34,636
1.48 35,322
1.26
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
2.47
2.37
2.26
2.17
2.12
1.96
2.09
2.05
1.98
FURNITURE……………………………………………………………..
473
479
484
487
488
483
475
468
461
LEISUREPercentage
& HOSPITALITY…………………………………….....................
11,960
change………………………………………………………………………..
2.09 12,311
1.22 12,514
1.07 12,737
0.61 12,951
0.17 13,182
-0.89 13,398
-1.76 13,612
-1.52 13,831
-1.44
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
3.08
2.94
1.65
1.78
1.68
1.78
1.64
1.60
1.61
MISCELLANEOUS DURABLE GOODS……………… 2,101
2,171
2,222
2,274
2,329
2,402
2,496
2,588
2,665
OTHER SERVICES…………………………………………............................
6,477
6,414
6,380
6,325
6,274
6,230
6,186
6,148
6,114
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
2.02
3.33
2.35
2.33
2.42
3.14
3.92
3.69
2.96
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-1.01
-0.97
-0.53
-0.85
-0.82
-0.70
-0.70
-0.61
-0.56
NONDURABLE GOODS…………………………………. 20,017 20,355 20,673 20,966 21,278 21,606 21,925 22,249 22,576
GOVERNMENT………………………………………………..............................
32,285
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
1.82 32,331
1.68 32,414
1.56 32,501
1.42 32,675
1.49 32,868
1.54 33,030
1.47 33,219
1.48 33,444
1.47
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
0.02
0.14
0.26
0.27
0.53
0.59
0.49
0.57
0.68
FOOD AND BEVERAGE & TOBACCO......................... 6,815
6,966
7,101
7,233
7,371
7,470
7,562
7,652
7,731
FEDERAL.............................................……………………………………..
7,582
7,450
7,274
7,087
6,910
6,771
6,625
6,505
6,403
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
2.46
2.21
1.94
1.86
1.90
1.34
1.24
1.19
1.03
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-1.82
-1.74
-2.36
-2.57
-2.50
-2.01
-2.16
-1.81
-1.56
11,671
4,000
2.87
2.28
55,689
2.03
14,815
46,074
3.08
3.65
447
36,018
1.64
1.97
452
14,090
-1.98
1.87
2,740
6,082
2.83
-0.52
22,856
33,682
1.24
0.71
7,812
6,304
1.05
-1.55
11,988
4,111
2.71
2.78
56,876
2.13
15,296
47,691
3.24
3.51
454
36,806
1.51
2.19
444
14,349
-1.76
1.84
2,817
6,060
2.79
-0.37
23,170
33,943
1.37
0.77
7,903
6,214
1.16
-1.43
27,378
2024
1.25
27,729
2025
1.28
STATE & LOCAL…………………………………………........................
24,704 24,881 25,140 25,414
2015
2016
2017
2018
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
0.60
0.72
1.04
1.09
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
25,765
2019
1.38
26,097
2020
1.29
26,405
2021
1.18
26,714
2022
1.17
27,040
2023
1.22
Tennessee Econometric Model
APPENDIX A
39
3,725
21,373
-0.47
2.48
|
|
3,743
20,855
1.14
2.95
Forecast Data
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
FABRICATEDTRADE……………………………………......................
METAL PRODUCTS………………….. 18,933
3,616 19,382
3,643 19,785
3,677 20,258
3,701
WHOLESALE
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
change………………………………………………………………………..
2.09
0.75
0.94
0.63
Percentage
2.75
2.37
2.08
2.39
Table 14: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of current dollars)
January 2016
Forecast Data
|
5,916
7.12
6,335
7.08
6,777
6.98
7,220
6.53
7,677
6.34
8,167
6.38
13,216
3.93
13,719
3.81
14,294
4.19
14,890
4.17
15,502
4.11
16,154
4.20
16,800
4.00
MANUFACTURING.............................................................................
50,656 52,521 54,392 56,368
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
4.08
3.68
3.56
3.63
58,408
3.62
60,323
3.28
62,374
3.40
64,538
3.47
66,782
3.48
68,963
3.27
71,316
3.41
DURABLE GOODS........................................................................
27,815 28,980 30,190 31,496
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
4.74
4.19
4.18
4.32
32,785
4.09
33,977
3.64
35,243
3.73
36,614
3.89
38,056
3.94
39,367
3.44
40,819
3.69
786
810
3.02
834
2.90
859
3.09
886
3.07
916
948
WOOD PRODUCTS………………………………………….............
693
718
742
765
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
2.82 Seasonally
3.52 Adjusted
3.40 (current
3.03dollars)
2.83
Table 14: Tennessee
Average
Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector,
NONMETALLIC MINERAL PRODUCTS……………………………..
1,096
1,109
1,125
1,141Forecast
1,157
1,186
1,203
History
Data 1,172
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
1.44 2015:4
1.222016:1 1.42
1.40 2016:41.44
1.25 2017:31.25
1.43
2015:2 2015:3
2016:2 2016:3
2017:1 2017:2
2017:4 2018:1
3.43 2016
3.46
January
1,218 Annual
1,232
1.202015 1.16
2014
2016
1,245
1.04
2017
TOTAL NONFARM………………………………………………..
47346 1,344
47481 47891
48586 48925
49616 1,268
49956 50303
50649 1,235
50984
PRIMARY METALS………….…………………………….................
1,329482411,312
1,298 49266
1,282
1,249
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 10.68
1.14
3.50
2.89
2.82
2.82
2.77
2.81
2.67
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-0.96
-1.17 2.96-1.24
-1.12
-1.182.87 -1.10
-1.522.78 -1.10
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
3.76
3.73
3.44
4.51
2.62
3.04
2.87
2.85
2.82
2.82
2.81
2.76
45782
47219 1,204
48755 50131
1,221
1,188
2.62
3.25
2.82
-1.11 3.14 -1.41
-1.38
2.62
3.14
3.25
2.82
FABRICATED
METAL
PRODUCTS…………………..
3,948567174,075
4,214 57866
4,347
4,498
NATURAL
RESOURCES,
MINING
& CONSTRUCTION…… 54764 3,819
56036 56338
57094 57489
58296 4,425
58734 59169
59609 4,617
60009
% Chg
Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………………………
26.46 4.57
9.62
2.17
2.69
2.79
2.653.17
3.01 1.80
3.04
2.991.633.01 2.64
2.71
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
3.38 2.72 3.21
3.40
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
6.18
8.25
8.61
9.83
4.26
2.59
2.71
2.78
2.87
2.92
3.01
2.94
4,743
4,987
51513
54695 4,851
57291 58952
4.71
4.75
2.90
2.73 6.18 2.27
2.82
4.71
6.18
4.75
2.90
MANUFACTURING……………………………………………
57619 58423 59116 59605 60062 60584 61081 61537 61954 62435 62929 63334
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
3.49 3.35 3.74
3.60
% Chg
Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………………………
25.45 3.51
5.70
4.83
3.10
3.52
3.323.27
3.02 3.43
2.74
3.153.333.20 3.48
2.60
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.58
4.07
3.24
9.48
4.24
3.70
3.32
3.24
3.15
3.06
3.03
2.92
56302 57400 60333 62214
3.47 1.95 2.89
3.47
2.85
5.11
3.12
2.85
1.95
5.11
3.12
DURABLE
GOODS……………………………………......
55869 1,383
56305 56988
57693 58176
59072 1,572
59451 59941
60460 1,650
60849
PRODUCTS.............................................................................
1,432573311,460
1,494 58650
1,534
1,613
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 20.29
3.16
4.94
2.43
2.55
3.39
3.30
2.91
2.59
3.34
3.51
2.60
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
4.38
3.59
1.94
2.29
2.70
2.47
2.63
2.26
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
1.39
2.50
1.28
7.47
3.26
3.32
2.92
3.04
3.05
3.03
3.09
3.01
55092
55627 1,725
57962 59731
1,689
1,769
3.45
0.97
4.20
3.05
2.36
2.16
2.55
3.45
0.97
4.20
3.05
ELECTRICALGOODS……………………………..
EQUIPMENT, APPLIANCES
NONDURABLE
60716 62180 62910 63681 64330 64949 65517 66055 66566 67057 67531 67993
Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 34.67 3,499
10.00
4.78
4.14 4,059
3.91
3.54
3.13
2.98
2.76
&%COMPONENTS.............................................................................
3,639 4.993,844
4,2853.33 4,495
4,7192.86 4,950
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
4.70
6.82
6.65 12.98
5.95
4.45
4.14
3.73
3.48
3.24
3.07
2.93
58379 60542 64619 66803
2.03
6.73
3.38
5,199 3.71 5,460
5,728
2.03
3.71
6.73
3.38
MACHINERY…………………………………………………………
3,338
3,454
3,584
3,713
3,834
3,965
4,097
4,240
COMPUTER & ELECTRONIC
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
4.68
4.00
5.63
5.60
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES………….
42794 42887
MOTOR
VEHICLES,
BODIES & TRAILERS
% Chg Prev
Qtr SAAR………..……………………………
8.51
0.87
Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.84 9,474
2.02
&%PARTS.............................................................................
5.56
4.90
4.98
4.90
43218 43594 43970 44311 44670 45047 45414 45778 46130 46497
3.12
3.53
3.50
3.13
3.28
3.42
3.30
3.24
3.11
3.22
-0.79
3.97
2.75 11,320
3.32
3.36
3.28
3.31
3.22
10,062
10,654
11,9573.3312,541
13,1643.2713,837
4,387
5.03
4,514
5.02
4,670
4.92
42242 42707 44136 45592
2.75
1.10
3.35
3.30
2.75
1.10
3.35 15,863
3.30
14,553
15,174
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
7.05 65624
6.2166259 5.89
6.25 679045.63
4.88 694634.97
5.11 64537
5.18
4.54
WHOLESALE
TRADE…………………………………….
65438 65107
66802 67371
68436 68952
69949 70508
64934 4.27
67084 69200
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 12.31 -2.00
3.21
3.93
3.32
3.45
3.20
3.17
3.05
3.00
2.83
3.23
3.97
0.61
3.31
3.15
OTHER
TRANSPORTATION
EQUIPMENT………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
429
446
468
489
512
533
558
580
601
625
652
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.85
0.78
-0.50
4.24
2.09
3.48
3.47
3.28
3.22
3.10
3.01
3.03
3.97
0.61
3.31
3.15
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
4.57
4.00
4.95
4.51
4.63
4.25
4.66
3.83
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
3.98
2.71
2.62
1.77
2.13
0.16
0.16
-0.14
3.75
3.96
4.27
0.36
-0.47
-0.48
RETAIL TRADE…………………………………………….
29138 29534 29748 29973 30226 30443 30692 30946 31202 31466 31700 31933
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 11.59
5.56
2.93
3.42
2.90
FURNITURE……………………………………………………………..
486
499 3.05 512
522 3.325333.35 3.35
533 3.435343.01 2.97
534
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.77
3.31
-1.54
5.72
3.73
3.07
3.17
3.25
3.23
3.36
3.28
3.19
28895 29193 30333 31329
2.80
3.91
3.28
536 1.03 533
530
2.80
1.03
3.91
3.28
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES…………………………… 53522 53048 53448 53897 54358 54738 55162 55636 56083 56519 56977 57407
MISCELLANEOUS
DURABLE GOODS………………
2,343 3.402,414
2,5583.48 2,662
2,7903.28 2,910
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………………………
2.58 2,253
-3.49
3.05
3.47 2,484
2.82
3.14
3.25
3.15
3.05
% Chg
Same Qtr Last
Yr………………………………..
2.70 3.74
1.23
-0.46
1.56
3.18
3.212.99
3.23 4.06
3.17
3.254.833.29 4.29
3.18
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
3.98 1.34 3.01
2.90
52602 53300 54539 56304
3,025 1.33 3,133
3,239
1.71
2.32
3.24
1.71
2.32
3.24
3.93 1.33 3.59
3.38
INFORMATION…………………………………………………… 62396 63946 64536 65034 65505 65925 66370 66806 67331 67866 68396 68793
NONDURABLE GOODS………………………………….22,842 23,542 24,202 24,872 25,623 26,346 27,131 27,924
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 2.06 10.31
3.74
3.12
2.93
2.59
2.73
2.65
3.18
3.22
3.16
2.34
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
3.06 4.76 2.81
2.77
% Chg
Same Qtr Last
Yr………………………………..
0.94 3.28
3.55
10.10
4.98
3.09
2.843.02
2.72 2.82
2.79
2.942.983.05 2.92
2.97
60999 63239 65708 67600
28,726 29,596 30,497
4.85
3.67
3.90
2.88
2.87 3.67 3.03
3.04
4.85
3.90
2.88
FINANCIAL
70683 7,670
71177 71949
73243 73807
74950 9,208
75522 76033
76539 9,778
77045
FOODACTIVITIES………………………………….....
AND BEVERAGE & TOBACCO.........................
8,017726358,305
8,601 74348
8,935
9,509
% Chg
Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………………………
9.65 5.60
2.82
4.41
3.39
3.12
2.963.88
3.28 3.06
3.09
2.733.262.69 2.83
2.67
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
4.52 3.87 3.59
3.57
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
3.31
3.87
2.68
5.16
3.62
3.70
3.33
3.19
3.11
3.01
2.95
2.79
68979
70721
73508 75761
10,030
10,332
10,628
4.12
3.94
3.06
2.58 2.52 3.01
2.87
4.12
2.52
3.94
3.06
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
Forecast Data
CONSTRUCTION................................................................................
11,085 11,751 12,218 12,716
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
6.04
6.01
3.97
4.08
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
NATURAL RESOURCES & MINING......................................................................................................
4,021
4,466
4,806
5,157
5,523
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
4.29
11.07
7.60
7.31
7.09
APPENDIX A
40
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT..........................................................................
311,211 324,625 337,815 351,543 365,947 380,631 396,433 413,034 429,979 447,484 465,985
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
4.22
4.31
4.06
4.06
4.10
4.01
4.15
4.19
4.10
4.07
4.13
Table 14: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of current dollars)
January 2016
Forecast Data
LEISURE
& HOSPITALITY…………………………………….....................
13,245
FURNITURE……………………………………………………………..
486 13,987
499 14,562
512 15,167
522
Percentage
5.12
5.61
4.11
4.16
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
change………………………………………………………………………..
3.98
2.71
2.62
1.77
15,748
533
3.83
2.13
16,397
533
4.12
0.16
17,082
534
4.18
0.16
17,797
534
4.19
-0.14
18,537
536
4.16
0.36
19,341
533
4.34
-0.47
20,151
530
4.19
-0.48
OTHER
SERVICES…………………………………………............................
7,670
7,861
8,013
MISCELLANEOUS
DURABLE GOODS……………… 7,560
2,253
2,343
2,414
2,484
Percentage
1.63
1.46
2.48
1.94
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
change………………………………………………………………………..
3.74
3.98
3.01
2.90
8,171
2,558
1.98
2.99
8,349
2,662
2.18
4.06
8,534
2,790
2.21
4.83
8,733
2,910
2.34
4.29
8,940
3,025
2.37
3.93
9,146
3,133
2.31
3.59
9,367
3,239
2.41
3.38
GOVERNMENT………………………………………………..............................
36,657 37,668
NONDURABLE GOODS………………………………….22,842
23,542 38,797
24,202 39,971
24,872
Percentage
2.02
2.76
3.00
3.03
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
change………………………………………………………………………..
3.28
3.06
2.81
2.77
41,268
25,623
3.25
3.02
42,663
26,346
3.38
2.82
44,097
27,131
3.36
2.98
45,623
27,924
3.46
2.92
47,208
28,726
3.47
2.87
48,824
29,596
3.42
3.03
50,508
30,497
3.45
3.04
FEDERAL.............................................……………………………………..
8,523
8,532
8,456
8,395
FOOD AND BEVERAGE & TOBACCO.........................
7,670
8,017
8,305
8,601
Percentage
-0.16
0.10
-0.89
-0.71
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
change………………………………………………………………………..
5.60
4.52
3.59
3.57
8,346
8,935
-0.59
3.88
8,333
9,208
-0.15
3.06
8,310
9,509
-0.28
3.26
8,322
9,778
0.14
2.83
8,357
10,030
0.42
2.58
8,386
10,332
0.36
3.01
8,419
10,628
0.39
2.87
STATE & LOCAL…………………………………………........................
28,134 29,136 30,341 31,575
2015
2016
2017
2018
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
2.70
3.56
4.13
4.07
32,922
2019
4.27
34,330
2020
4.28
35,787
2021
4.24
37,301
2022
4.23
38,851
2023
4.15
40,438
2024
4.08
42,089
2025
4.08
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
APPENDIX A
41
47,868
652
3.96
4.27
|
|
EDUCATION
& HEALTH SERVICES………………………...........................
32,949
OTHER TRANSPORTATION
EQUIPMENT………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
429 34,300
446 35,640
468 36,983
489 38,391
512 39,762
533 41,246
558 42,791
580 44,379
601 46,044
625
Percentage
4.23
4.10
3.91
3.77
3.81
3.57
3.73
3.75
3.71
3.75
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
change………………………………………………………………………..
4.57
4.00
4.95
4.51
4.63
4.25
4.66
3.83
3.75
3.96
Forecast Data
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
GROSSTEXTILE
DOMESTIC
PRODUCT..........................................................................
311,211
MILLS
& TEXTILE PRODUCT MILLS
464 324,625
458 337,815
455 351,543
452 365,947
449 380,631
444 396,433
441 413,034
438 429,979
434 447,484
432 465,985
430
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
change………………………………………………………………………..
4.22
4.31
4.06
4.06
4.10
4.01
4.15
4.19
4.10
4.07
4.13
Percentage
-2.31
-1.23
-0.62
-0.77
-0.65
-1.00
-0.72
-0.61
-0.94
-0.57
-0.38
NATURAL
RESOURCES
& MINING......................................................................................................
4,021
4,466
4,806
5,157
5,523
5,916
6,335
6,777
7,220
7,677
8,167
APPAREL
& LEATHER
PRODUCTS………………………………………………………………………..
296
283
271
261
252
244
235
228
221
214
209
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
4.29
11.07
7.60
7.31
7.09
7.12
7.08
6.98
6.53
6.34
6.38
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-3.37
-4.28
-4.25
-3.77
-3.42
-3.40
-3.34
-3.26
-3.13
-2.96
-2.62
CONSTRUCTION................................................................................
11,085
PAPER………………………………………………………………………..
3,151 11,751
3,261 12,218
3,371 12,716
3,491 13,216
3,616 13,719
3,756 14,294
3,905 14,890
4,057 15,502
4,209 16,154
4,362 16,800
4,516
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
change………………………………………………………………………..
6.04
6.01
3.97
4.08
3.93
3.81
4.19
4.17
4.11
4.20
4.00
Percentage
3.63
3.49
3.38
3.56
3.60
3.86
3.96
3.89
3.76
3.63
3.53
MANUFACTURING.............................................................................
50,656 52,521 54,392 56,368 58,408 60,323 62,374 64,538 66,782 68,963 71,316
PRINTING & RELATED SUPPORT………………………………………………………………………..
1,099
1,104
1,099
1,097
1,098
1,101
1,104
1,108
1,113
1,118
1,124
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
4.08
3.68
3.56
3.63
3.62
3.28
3.40
3.47
3.48
3.27
3.41
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
2.92
0.47
-0.43
-0.16
0.04
0.25
0.35
0.34
0.44
0.47
0.50
DURABLE GOODS........................................................................
27,815 28,980 30,190 31,496 32,785 33,977 35,243 36,614 38,056 39,367 40,819
CHEMICALS………………………………………………………………………..
859
902
943
983
1,025
1,074
1,123
1,175
1,231
1,281
1,336
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
4.74
4.19
4.18
4.32
4.09
3.64
3.73
3.89
3.94
3.44
3.69
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
4.86
4.95
4.59
4.25
4.23
4.78
4.59
4.59
4.77
4.06
4.32
WOOD PRODUCTS………………………………………….............
693
718
742
765
786
810
834
859
886
916
948
PLASTICS & RUBBER………………………………………………………………………..
7,136
7,311
7,507
7,696
7,912
8,134
8,372
8,630
8,912
9,219
9,530
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
2.82
3.52
3.40
3.03
2.83
3.02
2.90
3.09
3.07
3.43
3.46
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
1.59
2.45
2.68
2.51
2.81
2.80
2.93
3.08
3.27
3.44
3.37
NONMETALLIC MINERAL PRODUCTS……………………………..
1,096
1,109
1,125
1,141
1,157
1,172
1,186
1,203
1,218
1,232
1,245
MISCELLANEOUS NONDURABLE GOODS………………
2,166
2,206
2,250
2,291
2,337
2,385
2,441
2,510
2,576
2,638
2,724
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
1.44
1.22
1.42
1.40
1.44
1.25
1.25
1.43
1.20
1.16
1.04
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
2.22
1.81
2.03
1.81
1.99
2.09
2.33
2.84
2.60
2.43
3.26
PRIMARY METALS………….…………………………….................
1,344
1,329
1,312
1,298
1,282
1,268
1,249
1,235
1,221
1,204
1,188
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES………….....................……..................……..................
59,227 61,691 64,147 66,823 69,726 72,730 76,055 79,534 83,067 86,829 90,844
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-0.96
-1.17
-1.24
-1.12
-1.18
-1.10
-1.52
-1.10
-1.11
-1.41
-1.38
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
4.18
4.16
3.98
4.17
4.34
4.31
4.57
4.57
4.44
4.53
4.62
FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS………………….. 3,819
3,948
4,075
4,214
4,347
4,425
4,498
4,617
4,743
4,851
4,987
WHOLESALE TRADE……………………………………......................
21,686 22,786 23,779 24,892 26,199 27,481 29,010 30,576 32,215 33,887 35,713
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
4.57
3.38
3.21
3.40
3.17
1.80
1.63
2.64
2.73
2.27
2.82
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
5.40
5.07
4.36
4.68
5.25
4.89
5.56
5.40
5.36
5.19
5.39
MACHINERY…………………………………………………………
3,338
3,454
3,584
3,713
3,834
3,965
4,097
4,240
4,387
4,514
4,670
RETAIL TRADE…………………………………………….........................
21,375 22,088 22,918 23,826 24,737 25,646 26,643 27,657 28,694 29,846 31,087
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
3.51
3.49
3.74
3.60
3.27
3.43
3.33
3.48
3.47
2.89
3.47
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
3.10
3.33
3.76
3.96
3.82
3.68
3.89
3.81
3.75
4.02
4.16
COMPUTER & ELECTRONIC
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES…………………………………………….
16,166 16,817 17,450 18,105 18,790 19,602 20,402 21,301 22,158 23,096 24,044
PRODUCTS.............................................................................
1,383
1,432
1,460
1,494
1,534
1,572
1,613
1,650
1,689
1,725
1,769
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
4.02
4.03
3.76
3.75
3.79
4.32
4.08
4.41
4.03
4.23
4.11
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
4.38
3.59
1.94
2.29
2.70
2.47
2.63
2.26
2.36
2.16
2.55
INFORMATION……………………………………………………....................................
8,975
9,191
9,414
9,645
9,889 10,117 10,329 10,569 10,823 11,061 11,311
ELECTRICAL
EQUIPMENT,
APPLIANCES
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
1.80
2.41
2.43
2.45
2.53
2.31
2.10
2.33
2.40
2.20
2.26
& COMPONENTS.............................................................................
3,499
3,639
3,844
4,059
4,285
4,495
4,719
4,950
5,199
5,460
5,728
FINANCIAL
ACTIVITIES…………………………………............................
50,981
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
4.68 53,525
4.00 55,905
5.63 58,290
5.60 60,777
5.56 63,198
4.90 65,862
4.98 68,675
4.90 71,509
5.03 74,315
5.02 77,316
4.92
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
4.86
4.99
4.45
4.27
4.27
3.98
4.22
4.27
4.13
3.92
4.04
MOTOR VEHICLES, BODIES & TRAILERS
PROFESSIONAL
& BUSINESS SERVICES………………………….................
35,854
53,107 14,553
56,011 15,174
59,129 15,863
62,339
& PARTS.............................................................................
9,474 37,853
10,062 40,074
10,654 42,410
11,320 44,829
11,957 47,458
12,541 50,226
13,164 13,837
Percentage
6.14
5.57
5.87
5.83
5.70
5.86
5.83
5.74
5.47
5.57
5.43
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
change………………………………………………………………………..
7.05
6.21
5.89
6.25
5.63
4.88
4.97
5.11
5.18
4.27
4.54
42
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Historical Data
|
APPENDIX B
APPENDIX B: HISTORICAL DATA
In this section—
Appendix B: Historical Data
Quarterly
Annual pages 44–67 (2012:2 to 2015:3)
pages 68–82 (2003 to 2014)
Quarterly History Tables
Table 1:
Table 2:
Table 3:
Table 4:
Table 5:
Table 6:
Table 7:
Table 8:
Table 9:
Table 10:
Table 11:
Table 12:
Table 13:
Table 14:
Table 15:
Table 16:
Table 17:
Table 18:
Table 19:
Table 20:
Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted....................................................................................................44
Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted..................................................................................46
Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of 2009 dollars)...................................................47
Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of current dollars))..............................................48
Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs).........................................................................49
Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs).......................................................50
Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs).................................................51
Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)...............................................................................52
Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs).............................................................54
Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs).......................................................55
Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (2009 dollars)......................................................56
Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (2009 dollars)............................................................57
Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars)...................................................59
Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars).........................................................60
Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Not Seasonally Adjusted..................................................................................62
Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted.........................................................................................63
Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2009 dollars).............................................................................................64
Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2009 dollars)....................................................................................................65
Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars)..........................................................................................66
Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars)................................................................................................67
Annual History Tables
Table 1:
Table 2:
Table 3:
Table 4:
Table 5:
Table 6:
Table 7:
Table 8:
Table 9:
Table 10:
Table 11:
Table 12:
Table 13:
Table 14:
Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators......................................................................................................................................68
Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators.....................................................................................................................69
Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of 2009 dollars)............................................................................................................70
Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of current dollars).........................................................................................................71
Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector (thousands of jobs)..................................................................................................................72
Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs)................................................................................................73
Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs)..........................................................................................74
Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (2009 dollars)...............................................................................................75
Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (current dollars)............................................................................................76
Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate............................................................................................................................77
Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of 2009 dollars)......................................................................................................................................78
Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of current dollars)...................................................................................................................................79
Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of 2009 dollars).....................................................................................................80
Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of current dollars)..................................................................................................82
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
|
43
January 2016
|
Historical Data
2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4
2012
Annual
2013
2014
US GDP (Bil$) SAAR……………………………16227.9 16297.3 16440.7 16526.8 16727.5 16957.6 16984.3 17270.0 17522.1 17615.9 17649.3 17913.7 18060.2 18181.2 16155.3 16663.2 17348.1
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 2.66
1.72
3.57
2.11
4.95
5.62
0.63
6.90
5.97
2.16
0.76
6.13
3.31
2.71
4.11
3.14
4.11
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
4.11
3.24
2.92
2.51
3.08
4.05
3.31
4.50
4.75
3.88
3.92
3.73
3.07
3.21
4.11
3.14
4.11
TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL2009$) SAAR…237772 241833 236631 237037 237691 238407 240048 241798 243093 246452 249416 252618 254215 257680
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 0.34
7.01
-8.33
0.69
1.11
1.21
2.78
2.95
2.16
5.64
4.90
5.23
2.55
5.56
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
3.45
4.95
0.68
-0.22
-0.03
-1.42
1.44
2.01
2.27
3.37
3.90
4.47
4.58
4.56
US PERSONAL INCOME (BIL2009$) SAAR… 13054
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 0.22
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
2.29
13405
11.21
5.01
12962
-12.56
0.15
13073
3.46
0.20
13122
1.52
0.53
13154
0.98
-1.87
13298
4.44
2.59
13392
2.86
2.44
13500
3.28
2.88
13680
5.45
4.00
13861
5.38
4.23
13965
3.06
4.28
14095
3.76
4.41
14224
3.73
3.98
TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL$) SAAR………252589 258288 253588 254303 256060 257738 260548 263843 266044 269426 271353 276341 278958 282614
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 1.66
9.33
-7.08
1.13
2.79
2.65
4.43
5.16
3.38
5.18
2.89
7.56
3.84
5.35
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
5.07
6.80
2.21
1.09
1.37
-0.21
2.74
3.75
3.90
4.54
4.15
4.74
4.85
4.89
US PERSONAL INCOME (BIL$) SAAR……… 13867
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 1.54
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
3.89
14317
13.62
6.86
13891
-11.37
1.68
14025
3.91
1.53
14136
3.21
1.94
14221
2.41
-0.67
14434
6.12
3.90
14613
5.06
4.19
14775
4.51
4.52
14956
4.99
5.17
TN NONFARM JOBS (THOUS)……………… 2718.8 2729.8 2739.6 2752.0 2761.6 2781.6 2790.5 2806.3 2824.2 2843.4
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 0.87
1.63
1.45
1.82
1.40
2.93
1.29
2.29
2.57
2.76
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
1.75
1.73
1.47
1.44
1.58
1.90
1.86
1.97
2.27
2.22
15080
3.36
4.48
15277
5.33
4.55
15468
5.09
4.69
15614
3.84
4.40
2846.8 2860.9 2874.9 2900.1
0.47
2.00
1.97
3.57
2.02
1.94
1.79
2.00
238054 237442 242848
3.82
-0.26
2.28
3.82
-0.26
2.28
13112
3.03
3.03
13078
-0.26
-0.26
13468
2.98
2.98
252636 255422 264965
5.79
1.10
3.74
5.79
1.10
3.74
13915
4.98
4.98
14068
1.10
1.10
14694
4.45
4.45
2715.3 2758.7
2.00
1.60
2.00
1.60
2816.1
2.08
2.08
US NONFARM JOBS (MIL)…………………… 134.3
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 1.23
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
1.65
134.8
1.74
1.66
135.5
2.10
1.57
136.1
1.65
1.68
136.6
1.60
1.77
137.3
1.94
1.82
137.8
1.60
1.70
138.6
2.33
1.87
139.4
2.16
2.01
140.2
2.46
2.14
141.0
2.24
2.30
141.6
1.74
2.15
142.2
1.77
2.05
142.9
1.86
1.90
134.1
1.71
1.71
136.4
1.71
1.71
139.0
1.93
1.93
TN MFG JOBS (THOUS)……………………… 315.1
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 1.63
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
3.35
316.0
1.14
2.97
316.9
1.16
2.62
317.3
0.57
1.12
318.5
1.53
1.10
321.1
3.26
1.62
322.8
2.14
1.87
323.3
0.65
1.89
325.8
3.14
2.29
329.0
4.02
2.48
330.9
2.29
2.52
330.7
-0.29
2.28
331.5
1.00
1.74
332.7
1.53
1.17
313.4
2.94
2.94
318.4
1.61
1.61
325.2
2.13
2.13
US MFG JOBS (MIL)……………………………
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
12.0
0.98
1.69
12.0
-0.17
1.44
12.0
1.45
1.12
12.0
0.33
0.65
12.0
-0.02
0.40
12.1
2.04
0.95
12.1
1.75
1.02
12.2
1.30
1.26
12.2
1.51
1.65
12.3
2.31
1.72
12.3
1.60
1.68
12.3
0.30
1.43
12.3
-0.05
1.04
12.3
-0.41
0.35
11.9
1.71
1.71
12.0
0.78
0.78
12.2
1.41
1.41
TN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)……………
7.8
7.7
7.9
7.9
7.7
7.1
6.5
6.5
6.6
6.6
6.5
5.8
5.7
5.6
7.8
7.6
6.6
US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)……………
8.0
7.8
7.7
7.5
7.2
7.0
6.6
6.2
6.1
5.7
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.0
8.1
7.4
6.2
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
Historical Data
US GDP (Bil2009$) SAAR………………………
15380.8 15384.3 15457.2 15500.2 15614.4 15761.5 15724.9 15901.5 16068.8 16151.4 16177.3 16333.6 16414.0 16462.5 15354.6 15583.3 15961.7
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 0.48
0.09
1.91
1.12
2.98
3.82
-0.93
4.57
4.28
2.07
0.64
3.92
1.98
1.19
2.22
1.49
2.43
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
2.39
1.28
1.09
0.90
1.52
2.45
1.73
2.59
2.91
2.47
2.88
2.72
2.15
1.93
2.22
1.49
2.43
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2015:1 2015:2 2015:3 2015:4
APPENDIX B
44
Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted
Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted
January 2016
Historical Data
2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4
2015:1 2015:2 2015:3 2015:4
2012
Annual
2013
2014
CHAINED PRICE INDEX, GDP
((2009=100.0)……………........................... 105.5
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 2.37
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
1.71
105.9
1.49
1.95
106.3
1.50
1.79
106.6
1.10
1.62
107.2
2.00
1.52
107.6
1.79
1.60
108.0
1.48
1.59
108.6
2.23
1.87
109.0
1.59
1.77
109.1
0.12
1.35
109.1
0.11
1.01
109.7
2.12
0.98
110.0
1.32
0.91
110.4
1.44
1.25
105.2
1.84
1.84
106.9
1.63
1.63
108.7
1.64
1.64
US PERS CONSUMP DEFL (2009=100.0)… 106.2
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 1.32
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
1.57
106.8
2.17
1.76
107.2
1.36
1.52
107.3
0.44
1.32
107.7
1.67
1.41
108.1
1.42
1.22
108.5
1.61
1.28
109.1
2.14
1.71
109.4
1.19
1.59
109.3
-0.43
1.12
108.8
-1.91
0.23
109.4
2.21
0.25
109.7
1.28
0.27
109.8
0.11
0.41
106.1
1.89
1.89
107.6
1.37
1.37
109.1
1.43
1.43
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX,
ALL-URBAN (82-84=1.000)………………… 2.299
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… 1.77
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
1.68
2.314
2.64
1.91
2.322
1.38
1.69
2.321
-0.14
1.41
2.334
2.27
1.53
2.342
1.42
1.23
2.354
2.09
1.40
2.368
2.44
2.05
2.375
1.18
1.78
2.370
-0.85
1.20
2.352
-3.06
-0.10
2.369
2.98
0.04
2.379
1.58
0.14
2.381
0.33
0.43
2.296
2.08
2.08
2.330
1.46
1.46
2.367
1.61
1.61
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (% per annum)……
0.143
0.160
0.143
0.117
0.083
0.087
0.073
0.093
0.090
0.100
0.110
0.123
0.137
0.152
0.140
0.108
0.089
30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE (%)……
3.6
3.4
3.5
3.7
4.4
4.3
4.4
4.2
4.1
4.0
3.7
3.8
4.0
3.9
3.7
4.0
4.2
TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL2009$)…………… 22878
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… -1.93
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
0.93
23007
2.28
1.02
23361
6.30
-0.66
23472
1.91
2.10
23389
-1.41
2.23
23615
3.94
2.65
23780
2.81
1.79
23807
0.45
1.43
24465
11.54
4.60
24985
8.76
5.80
24523
-7.19
3.12
25642
19.55
7.71
26228
9.46
7.21
26353
1.91
5.48
92389
2.77
2.77
93837
1.57
1.57
97036
3.41
3.41
TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL$)………………… 24303
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… -0.64
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
2.51
24572
4.50
2.80
25035
7.75
0.85
25181
2.36
3.45
25196
0.23
3.67
25530
5.41
3.90
25811
4.47
3.10
25977
2.60
3.16
26775
12.87
6.27
27314
8.29
6.99
26679
-8.97
3.37
28050
22.19
7.98
28781
10.84
7.49
28903
1.70
5.82
98041 100943 105877
4.70
2.96
4.89
4.70
2.96
4.89
TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE, NONFARM
(2009$)…………….................................. 41745
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… -2.20
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
0.60
42345
5.87
3.74
41492
-7.81
-0.74
41477
-0.15
-1.19
41449
-0.27
-0.71
41474
0.24
-2.06
41853
3.71
0.87
41816
-0.36
0.82
41824
0.07
0.90
42351
5.14
2.12
42429
0.73
1.37
43281
8.28
3.50
43269
-0.11
3.46
43666
3.72
3.10
41968
1.59
1.59
41473
-1.18
-1.18
41961
1.18
1.18
TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE, NONFARM ($)…… 44347
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………… -0.91
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
2.18
45226
8.17
5.56
44466
-6.56
0.77
44498
0.29
0.11
44652
1.39
0.69
44837
1.66
-0.86
45427
5.38
2.16
45628
1.78
2.54
45772
1.27
2.51
46299
4.68
3.26
46160
-1.19
1.61
47346
10.68
3.76
47481
1.14
3.73
47891
3.50
3.44
44537
3.52
3.52
44613
0.17
0.17
45782
2.62
2.62
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
|
|
45
APPENDIX B
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
BANK PRIME INTEREST RATE (%)…………
January 2016
|
Historical Data
2012:2 2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4 2015:1 2015:2 2015:3
Annual
2013
2014
48777 49139 49964
1.47
0.74
1.68
1.47
0.74
1.68
US GDP ($) SAAR……………………………… 51270 51496 51623 51991 52168 52690 53320 53317 54115 54790 54987 55002 55712 56053
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 3.01
1.77
0.99
2.89
1.37
4.06
4.87 -0.02
6.12
5.08
1.44
0.11
5.27
2.47
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 3.51
3.34
2.48
2.16
1.75
2.32
3.29
2.55
3.73
3.99
3.13
3.16
2.95
2.31
51321 52544 54304
3.34
2.38
3.35
3.34
2.38
3.35
TN PERSONAL INCOME (2009$) SAAR…… 36835 36769 37297 36398 36364 36368 36382 36536 36705 36805 37216 37565 37949 38089
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 3.26 -0.72
5.88 -9.30 -0.37
0.04
0.15
1.70
1.87
1.09
4.54
3.81
4.14
1.49
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.91
2.35
3.84 -0.39 -1.28 -1.09 -2.46
0.38
0.94
1.20
2.29
2.82
3.39
3.49
36860 36378 36816
2.71 -1.31
1.20
2.71 -1.31
1.20
US PERSONAL INCOME (2009$) SAAR…… 41490 41423 42460 40992 41266 41334 41361 41745 41963 42214 42702 43195 43433 43746
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 2.51 -0.64 10.40 -13.13
2.70
0.66
0.26
3.76
2.11
2.41
4.71
4.70
2.22
2.92
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.12
1.54
4.23 -0.59 -0.54 -0.22 -2.59
1.84
1.69
2.13
3.24
3.47
3.50
3.63
41653 41238 42157
2.27 -0.99
2.23
2.27 -0.99
2.23
TN PERSONAL INCOME ($) SAAR………… 39003 39060 39835 39007 39013 39179 39332 39656 40052 40280 40685 40869 41512 41797
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 4.53
0.59
8.18 -8.06
0.06
1.71
1.57
3.34
4.05
2.30
4.09
1.82
6.44
2.77
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 4.73
3.95
5.67
1.12
0.03
0.30 -1.26
1.66
2.66
2.81
3.44
3.06
3.65
3.77
39118 39133 40168
4.66
0.04
2.65
4.66
0.04
2.65
US PERSONAL INCOME ($) SAAR………… 43931 44005 45349 43929 44272 44528 44715 45310 45789 46200 46683 46994 47512 48007
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 3.76
0.67 12.80 -11.95
3.15
2.34
1.69
5.43
4.30
3.63
4.25
2.69
4.48
4.24
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 3.92
3.13
6.07
0.92
0.78
1.19 -1.40
3.14
3.43
3.75
4.40
3.72
3.76
3.91
44204 44362 45996
4.21
0.36
3.69
4.21
0.36
3.69
TN TAXABLE SALES (2009$)………………… 3565
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… -9.62
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.63
3538
-2.97
-0.14
3548
1.20
-0.05
3593
5.18
-1.71
3601
0.83
1.02
3579
-2.45
1.15
3604
2.85
1.56
3619
1.74
0.72
3614
-0.60
0.36
3704
10.37
3.51
3773
7.63
4.69
3693
-8.16
2.05
3852
18.31
6.59
3930
8.33
6.09
14306 14377 14710
1.68
0.49
2.32
1.68
0.49
2.32
TN TAXABLE SALES ($)………………………
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
3758
-1.69
1.42
3790
3.40
1.71
3851
6.61
-0.21
3863
1.28
2.35
3855
-0.82
2.58
3896
4.31
2.80
3928
3.37
2.01
3943
1.53
2.08
4054
11.69
5.15
4125
7.16
5.87
4018
-9.92
2.29
4214
20.93
6.86
4312
9.69
6.38
15181 15465 16050
3.59
1.87
3.78
3.59
1.87
3.78
3774
-8.51
3.43
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
US GDP (2009$) SAAR………………….…… 48855 48808 48731 48881 48928 49184 49559 49364 49827 50246 50415 50414 50798 50944
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 1.15 -0.38 -0.63
1.24
0.38
2.11
3.09 -1.57
3.81
3.40
1.36 -0.01
3.08
1.16
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.73
1.64
0.53
0.34
0.15
0.77
1.70
0.99
1.84
2.16
1.73
2.13
1.95
1.39
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2012
APPENDIX B
46
Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted
Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of 2009 dollars)
January 2016
Historical Data
2012:2 2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4 2015:1 2015:2 2015:3
2012
Annual
2013
2014
TN PERSONAL INCOME…………..………237568 237772 241833 236631 237037 237691 238407 240048 241798 243093 246452 249416 252618 254215
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 4.37
0.34
7.01
-8.33
0.69
1.11
1.21
2.78
2.95
2.16
5.64
4.90
5.23
2.55
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 4.02
3.45
4.95
0.68
-0.22
-0.03
-1.42
1.44
2.01
2.27
3.37
3.90
4.47
4.58
238054 237442 242848
3.82
-0.26
2.28
3.82
-0.26
2.28
WAGES AND SALARIES………………114754 114363 116463 114532 114997 115321 116213 117642 118201 118966 121268 121639 124682 125258
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 3.65
-1.36
7.55
-6.47
1.63
1.13
3.13
5.01
1.92
2.62
7.97
1.23 10.39
1.86
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 3.84
2.34
5.48
0.71
0.21
0.84
-0.22
2.71
2.79
3.16
4.35
3.40
5.48
5.29
114827 115266 119019
3.59
0.38
3.26
3.59
0.38
3.26
28087
3.25
7.42
28240
2.21
7.00
27971
-3.76
2.65
27787
-2.60
-0.27
27602
-2.64
-1.73
27479
-1.77
-2.70
27288
-2.75
-2.44
27110
-2.57
-2.44
27001
-1.61
-2.18
27194
2.88
-1.04
27310
1.72
0.08
27756
6.70
2.38
27846
1.30
3.13
27860
7.11
7.11
27710
-0.54
-0.54
27148
-2.03
-2.03
PROPRIETORS INCOME……………… 29709
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 2.44
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 7.35
29757
0.65
5.73
29984
3.09
5.11
31182
16.96
5.59
30864
-4.02
3.89
30975
1.45
4.09
30792
-2.34
2.69
31512
9.68
1.06
32173
8.66
4.24
32319
1.83
4.34
32897
7.35
6.84
33274
4.67
5.59
33497
2.70
4.11
33913
5.07
4.93
29745
6.63
6.63
30953
4.06
4.06
32225
4.11
4.11
RENT, INTEREST, DIVIDENDS……… 33692
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 6.85
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 5.83
33702
0.11
4.99
35795
27.25
9.64
33232
-25.71
0.28
33493
3.19
-0.59
33750
3.11
0.14
33698
-0.62
-5.86
34096
4.80
2.60
34373
3.30
2.63
34443
0.81
2.05
34800
4.21
3.27
35257
5.36
3.41
35625
4.24
3.64
35876
2.84
4.16
34082
6.32
6.32
33543
-1.58
-1.58
34428
2.64
2.64
TRANSFER PAYMENTS……………… 48989
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 2.22
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… -1.00
49198
1.72
0.92
49011
-1.52
-0.39
49435
3.51
1.47
49689
2.07
1.43
49880
1.55
1.39
50182
2.45
2.39
49629
-4.33
0.39
50061
3.52
0.75
50533
3.83
1.31
50774
1.92
1.18
52494
14.25
5.77
52135
-2.71
4.14
52411
2.14
3.72
48980
-0.83
-0.83
49797
1.67
1.67
50249
0.91
0.91
LESS: PERS CONT FOR SOC INS… 16323
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 1.16
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 1.13
16200
-2.97
-0.29
16458
6.51
3.02
18490
59.32
13.60
18571
1.77
13.77
18606
0.76
14.85
18699
2.02
13.62
18959
5.68
2.54
18965
0.12
2.12
19013
1.02
2.19
19299
6.16
3.21
19382
1.73
2.23
19797
8.83
4.39
19829
0.66
4.29
16314
1.07
1.07
18592
13.96
13.96
19059
2.52
2.52
RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT…………… -1116
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 27.25
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 46.55
-1135
6.95
41.83
-1203
26.03
53.41
-1231
9.68
17.11
-1222
-2.78
9.49
-1231
3.05
8.48
-1257
8.76
4.56
-1159
-27.87
-5.84
-1155
-1.26
-5.48
-1155
0.06
-6.17
-1181
9.29
-6.06
-1175
-2.12
1.39
-1280
40.83
10.80
-1259
-6.30
9.00
-1126
45.87
45.87
-1235
9.70
9.70
-1163
-5.89
-5.89
PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME ($)… 36835
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 3.26
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 2.91
36769
-0.72
2.35
37297
5.88
3.84
36398
-9.30
-0.39
36364
-0.37
-1.28
36368
0.04
-1.09
36382
0.15
-2.46
36536
1.70
0.38
36705
1.87
0.94
36805
1.09
1.20
37216
4.54
2.29
37565
3.81
2.82
37949
4.14
3.39
38089
1.49
3.49
36860
2.71
2.71
36378
-1.31
-1.31
36816
1.20
1.20
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
|
|
47
APPENDIX B
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
OTHER LABOR INCOME……………… 27863
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR……………… 9.34
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………… 8.08
|
Historical Data
2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4 2015:1 2015:2 2015:3
2012
Annual
2013
2014
252636 255422 264965
5.79
1.10
3.74
5.79
1.10
3.74
WAGES AND SALARIES………………… 121507 121490 124387 122739 123373 124233 125635 127688 128977 130198 132573 132337 136391 137449
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………
4.92
-0.06
9.89
-5.19
2.08
2.82
4.59
6.70
4.10
3.84
7.50
-0.71 12.83
3.14
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………
5.68
3.94
7.34
2.23
1.54
2.26
1.00
4.03
4.54
4.80
5.52
3.64
5.75
5.57
121860 123995 129859
5.55
1.75
4.73
5.55
1.75
4.73
OTHER LABOR INCOME………………… 29503
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………………… 10.68
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………
9.99
29837
4.61
9.10
30162
4.43
8.88
29976
-2.45
4.21
29811
-2.17
1.05
29735
-1.02
-0.34
29707
-0.38
-1.51
29618
-1.19
-1.19
29582
-0.49
-0.77
29550
-0.43
-0.62
29729
2.44
0.07
29712
-0.23
0.32
30362
9.05
2.64
30556
2.58
3.40
29566
9.13
9.13
29807
0.81
0.81
29620
-0.63
-0.63
PROPRIETORS INCOME………………
31458
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………
3.70
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………
9.25
31612
1.97
7.39
32025
5.33
6.96
33417
18.56
7.20
33112
-3.60
5.26
33369
3.14
5.56
33289
-0.96
3.95
34203
11.44
2.35
35106
10.99
6.02
35370
3.04
6.00
35964
6.88
8.03
36201
2.66
5.84
36642
4.97
4.38
37214
6.39
5.21
31567
8.64
8.64
33297
5.48
5.48
35161
5.60
5.60
RENT, INTEREST, DIVIDENDS………… 35675
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………
8.16
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………
7.70
35802
1.43
6.63
38230
30.01
11.57
35613
-24.70
1.80
35933
3.64
0.72
36359
4.83
1.55
36430
0.79
-4.71
37007
6.49
3.92
37507
5.51
4.38
37694
2.02
3.67
38044
3.76
4.43
38358
3.34
3.65
38971
6.55
3.90
39368
4.13
4.44
36172
8.34
8.34
36084
-0.25
-0.25
37563
4.10
4.10
TRANSFER PAYMENTS………………… 51872
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………
3.47
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………
0.75
52264
3.06
2.50
52345
0.62
1.36
52977
4.92
3.01
53308
2.52
2.77
53735
3.24
2.81
54251
3.90
3.64
53868
-2.80
1.68
54625
5.74
2.47
55304
5.06
2.92
55507
1.48
2.32
57110
12.07
6.02
57031
-0.56
4.40
57512
3.42
3.99
51978
1.06
1.06
53568
3.06
3.06
54826
2.35
2.35
LESS: PERS CONT FOR SOC INS…… 17283
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………
2.40
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………
2.92
17210
-1.69
1.27
17577
8.82
4.83
19815
61.49
15.33
19924
2.22
15.28
20044
2.44
16.47
20216
3.47
15.01
20579
7.38
3.85
20694
2.26
3.87
20808
2.23
3.81
21099
5.70
4.37
21087
-0.22
2.47
21656
11.23
4.65
21759
1.93
4.57
17313
2.99
2.99
20000
15.52
15.52
20795
3.98
3.98
RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT……………
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………
-1182
28.81
49.14
-1206
8.36
44.05
-1284
28.76
56.11
-1319
11.17
18.89
-1311
-2.35
10.94
-1326
4.77
10.01
-1359
10.30
5.83
-1258
-26.71
-4.64
-1260
0.86
-3.86
-1264
1.26
-4.68
-1291
8.81
-5.00
-1278
-3.99
1.63
-1400
43.94
11.08
-1382
-5.12
9.29
-1195
48.63
48.63
-1329
11.18
11.18
-1268
-4.55
-4.55
PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME ($)…… 39003
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………
4.53
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………
4.73
39060
0.59
3.95
39835
8.18
5.67
39007
-8.06
1.12
39013
0.06
0.03
39179
1.71
0.30
39332
1.57
-1.26
39656
3.34
1.66
40052
4.05
2.66
40280
2.30
2.81
40685
4.09
3.44
40869
1.82
3.06
41512
6.44
3.65
41797
2.77
3.77
39118
4.66
4.66
39133
0.04
0.04
40168
2.65
2.65
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
TN PERSONAL INCOME…………..………… 251549 252589 258288 253588 254303 256060 257738 260548 263843 266044 269426 271353 276341 278958
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………
5.65
1.66
9.33
-7.08
1.13
2.79
2.65
4.43
5.16
3.38
5.18
2.89
7.56
3.84
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………
5.86
5.07
6.80
2.21
1.09
1.37
-0.21
2.74
3.75
3.90
4.54
4.15
4.74
4.85
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2012:2 2012:3 2012:4 2013:1
January 2015
APPENDIX B
48
Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates (millions of current dollars)
Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
January 2016
Historical Data
2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4 2015:1 2015:2 2015:3 2015:4
2012
Annual
2013
2014
TOTAL NONFARM……………………………………………… 2712.2 2760.4 2711.9 2756.0 2753.6 2813.7 2765.8 2810.3 2815.6 2870.1 2822.1 2866.2 2869.0 2927.8 2715.0 2758.8 2815.4
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr......................................... 1.68
1.87
1.50
1.49
1.53
1.93
1.99
1.97
2.25
2.00
2.04
1.99
1.90
2.01
2.01
1.61
2.05
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING & CONSTRUCTION…111.3 109.2 103.6 108.3 110.1 109.5 105.0 111.0 113.2 114.9 110.5 115.2 115.7 117.1
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr......................................... -1.62 -2.85 -1.96 -0.91 -1.08
0.21
1.42
2.43
2.78
4.96
5.24
3.84
2.21
1.91
108.9 107.9 111.0
0.19 -0.93
2.92
MANUFACTURING……………………………………………315.6 316.6 315.7 317.4 318.8 321.8 321.8 323.3 326.0 329.8 330.1 330.6 331.6 333.8
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr......................................... 3.28
2.96
2.69
1.13
1.02
1.64
1.93
1.86
2.25
2.50
2.56
2.26
1.71
1.21
313.4 318.4 325.2
2.94
1.61
2.14
DURABLE GOODS…………………………………………196.1 196.8 196.6 197.9 199.2 201.7 203.0 204.0 205.7 209.5 210.1 211.4 211.8 213.4
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr......................................... 5.96
5.17
4.10
2.03
1.56
2.52
3.26
3.08
3.26
3.83
3.53
3.61
2.97
1.89
193.9 198.9 205.5
5.56
2.54
3.36
NONDURABLE GOODS………………………………… 119.5 119.8 119.2 119.4 119.7 120.1 118.9 119.2 120.3 120.4 119.9 119.2 119.8 120.4
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr......................................... -0.83 -0.47
0.45 -0.33
0.14
0.19 -0.25 -0.17
0.56
0.25
0.90 -0.06 -0.44
0.03
119.5 119.6 119.7
-1.04
0.11
0.10
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES………………… 574.2 588.8 572.7 578.5 580.9 596.3 579.6 588.4 592.5 606.0 592.9 602.9 610.0 624.6
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr......................................... 1.86
2.00
1.40
1.04
1.17
1.27
1.21
1.71
2.00
1.63
2.29
2.47
2.95
3.07
575.1 582.1 591.6
2.05
1.22
1.64
WHOLESALE TRADE…………………………………… 120.9 121.5 120.5 121.9 122.3 122.6 121.6 123.1 123.8 124.6 124.2 125.8 127.8 130.1
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr......................................... 2.05
2.07
1.37
1.05
1.13
0.88
0.89
0.93
1.23
1.69
2.19
2.19
3.20
4.41
120.5 121.8 123.3
2.22
1.11
1.18
RETAIL TRADE…………………………………………… 311.1 321.1 308.7 312.1 313.9 325.1 313.9 319.0 320.2 328.8 319.3 326.6 328.4 337.3
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr......................................... 0.88
1.36
0.43
0.10
0.90
1.22
1.70
2.20
2.02
1.14
1.72
2.38
2.56
2.59
312.8 314.9 320.5
1.18
0.67
1.76
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES……………………… 142.1 146.2 143.5 144.5 144.7 148.7 144.2 146.4 148.5 152.6 149.4 150.6 153.8 157.2
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr......................................... 3.90
3.39
3.56
3.14
1.81
1.69
0.44
1.29
2.63
2.65
3.63
2.89
3.59
3.01
141.8 145.4 147.9
3.87
2.53
1.76
INFORMATION……………………………………………… 42.7
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr......................................... -2.22
43.5
0.85
43.8
1.94
44.3
1.45
44.0
3.13
44.2
1.45
43.7
-0.15
43.8
-1.13
43.8
-0.53
44.4
0.60
44.2
1.07
43.8
-0.08
42.9
-2.06
42.5
-4.35
43.2
-1.26
44.1
1.99
43.9
-0.30
137.1 138.1 141.4
0.42
0.73
2.41
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES……………… 339.3 349.3 340.7 348.7 352.4 371.1 359.9 370.4 374.3 385.1 371.7 380.7 382.8 396.4
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr......................................... 4.41
4.10
4.06
3.23
3.86
6.24
5.62
6.22
6.22
3.77
3.28
2.80
2.28
2.93
338.5 353.2 372.4
4.85
4.37
5.43
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES……………………… 393.2 399.5 397.8 398.0 395.7 402.4 399.8 400.4 401.3 409.7 407.6 408.7 406.6 416.5
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr......................................... 2.25
2.27
1.87
1.54
0.65
0.73
0.51
0.62
1.42
1.81
1.95
2.06
1.30
1.68
393.8 398.5 402.8
2.47
1.19
1.09
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY………………………………… 283.9 277.5 270.8 291.8 294.6 286.5 280.0 302.5 306.1 296.7 287.6 312.0 316.7 307.5
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr......................................... 2.92
3.51
3.10
3.02
3.76
3.22
3.41
3.66
3.91
3.57
2.73
3.15
3.44
3.63
276.8 285.9 296.3
3.44
3.28
3.64
OTHER SERVICES………………………………………… 105.0 104.0 103.8 106.7 106.5 105.3 105.0 107.1 106.3 105.1 103.8 105.8 105.4 104.2
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr......................................... 1.97
1.79
0.97
1.52
1.40
1.25
1.16
0.31 -0.19 -0.19 -1.11 -1.18 -0.85 -0.86
104.2 105.6 105.9
2.15
1.29
0.27
GOVERNMENT……………………………………………… 409.8 434.7 427.0 424.6 411.5 437.0 431.6 422.2 409.5 435.7 431.7 422.5 412.0 437.2
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr......................................... -1.39 -0.18 -0.91
0.94
0.42
0.53
1.07 -0.56 -0.50 -0.29
0.02
0.06
0.62
0.34
424.0 425.0 424.8
-0.87
0.24 -0.07
50.2
-0.72
49.6
-0.93
49.6
-1.06
49.3
-1.46
49.2
-1.99
48.9
-1.48
49.1
-1.08
47.2
-4.26
47.4
-3.79
47.4
-3.14
47.6
-2.92
47.6
0.71
47.8
0.84
|
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
49.5
-1.36
48.1
-2.65
373.9 375.6 376.6
-0.88
0.45
0.27
Tennessee Econometric Model
49
APPENDIX B
STATE & LOCAL………………………………………… 359.7 384.5 377.4 375.0 362.2 387.8 382.7 373.2 362.2 388.4 384.3 374.9 364.4 389.4
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr......................................... -1.46 -0.11 -0.91
1.21
0.69
0.86
1.40 -0.49
0.01
0.15
0.43
0.46
0.61
0.27
50.1
-0.81
|
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN……………………………………… 50.1
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr......................................... -0.86
Historical Data
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES…………………………………… 137.2 137.1 136.0 137.7 139.0 139.7 139.3 141.3 142.6 142.6 142.0 144.0 145.4 147.9
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr......................................... -0.10 -0.24 -0.54
0.27
1.34
1.85
2.43
2.61
2.54
2.08
1.91
1.91
1.99
3.74
January 2016
|
Historical Data
2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4 2015:1 2015:2 2015:3 2015:4
Annual
2013
2014
196.8
5.17
196.6
4.10
197.9
2.03
199.2
1.56
201.7
2.52
203.0
3.26
204.0
3.08
205.7
3.26
209.5
3.83
210.1
3.53
211.4
3.61
211.8
2.97
213.4
1.89
193.9
5.56
198.9
2.54
205.5
3.36
WOOD PRODUCTS……………………………… 11.3
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.74
11.0
0.91
10.7
-0.62
10.8
-2.11
10.9
-3.25
11.0
-0.30
11.0
2.49
11.1
2.77
11.4
4.59
11.4
3.94
11.3
3.34
11.6
4.19
11.8
3.22
11.8
2.92
11.0
2.24
10.9
-1.59
11.2
3.45
NONMETALLIC MINERAL PRODUCTS………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
12.7
5.83
12.6
4.70
12.4
2.48
12.2
-2.14
12.1
-4.99
11.9
-5.80
11.8
-5.11
11.9
-2.19
12.0
-0.28
11.9
0.00
11.7
-0.85
11.7
-1.68
11.7
-2.49
11.7
-1.68
12.5
5.80
12.1
-2.67
11.9
-1.92
PRIMARY METALS………….…………………… 9.8
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 6.52
9.8
3.90
9.9
5.69
9.9
2.41
10.0
1.70
10.1
3.07
10.0
1.01
10.0
1.01
10.1
1.34
10.1
0.66
10.2
2.00
10.2
1.99
10.2
1.32
10.4
2.30
9.7
4.89
10.0
3.19
10.1
1.00
FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS……………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
34.6
2.57
34.3
0.78
33.8
-1.65
33.9
-2.31
33.9
-2.02
34.0
-0.68
34.1
0.79
34.4
1.47
34.4
1.38
34.6
1.76
35.3
3.52
35.1
2.13
35.1
2.13
35.1
1.35
34.5
2.68
33.9
-1.67
34.4
1.35
MACHINERY……………………………………… 25.5
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 1.46
25.2
2.30
25.7
1.18
25.7
-1.40
25.2
-1.18
24.9
-1.32
25.4
-1.04
25.4
-1.17
25.6
1.72
26.4
6.30
26.4
3.67
26.7
5.11
26.2
2.21
25.7
-2.90
25.5
1.66
25.4
-0.69
25.7
1.41
COMPUTER & ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS…… 5.5
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -2.35
5.3
-9.60
5.3
-8.62
5.3
-9.66
5.2
-6.02
5.1
-4.38
5.0
-5.03
5.1
-4.40
5.0
-3.21
5.0
-1.96
5.0
-0.66
5.1
0.00
5.1
1.99
5.2
3.33
5.6
0.60
5.2
-7.25
5.0
-3.67
18.0
0.94
18.1
1.87
17.8
0.38
18.3
2.23
18.9
5.19
19.2
6.07
19.5
9.16
19.0
3.83
19.5
3.17
19.6
2.08
19.7
1.37
19.8
4.04
20.0
2.39
20.1
2.55
17.9
1.65
18.6
3.48
19.4
4.49
TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT…………… 55.1
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 18.49
57.2
17.93
57.8
16.36
58.3
11.19
59.8
8.47
62.2
8.62
62.8
8.53
63.3
8.63
63.7
6.58
66.2
6.54
66.5
5.89
66.9
5.58
67.4
5.76
69.1
4.38
53.6
17.02
59.5
11.00
64.0
7.55
FURNITURE………………………………………
8.8
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -0.38
8.4
-2.69
8.6
0.00
8.8
-0.38
8.7
-1.14
8.9
5.93
9.1
5.43
9.1
3.02
9.0
3.83
9.1
1.87
9.2
1.10
9.2
1.10
9.2
1.85
9.2
1.47
8.7
-2.89
8.8
1.06
9.1
3.52
MISCELLANEOUS DURABLE GOODS………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
14.7
-2.86
14.5
-3.12
14.6
-2.01
14.6
-1.79
14.4
-2.04
14.4
-0.69
14.6
0.00
14.9
2.05
15.0
3.70
14.9
3.70
15.1
3.20
15.1
1.34
15.2
1.34
14.9
-2.30
14.5
-2.24
14.7
1.26
ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT, APPLIANCES
& COMPONENTS…………..…………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
14.9
-2.62
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
TOTAL DURABLE GOODS………………………… 196.1
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 5.96
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2012
APPENDIX B
50
Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
January 2016
Historical Data
2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4 2015:1 2015:2 2015:3 2015:4
TOTAL NONDURABLE GOODS…………………… 119.5 119.8 119.2 119.4 119.7 120.1 118.9 119.2 120.3 120.4 119.9 119.2 119.8 120.4
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… -0.83 -0.47
0.45 -0.33
0.14
0.19 -0.25 -0.17
0.56
0.25
0.90 -0.06 -0.44
0.03
2012
Annual
2013
2014
119.5 119.6 119.7
-1.04
0.11
0.10
FOOD……………………………………………… 33.0
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… -0.80
32.7
-2.29
32.1
-3.50
32.2
-2.72
32.5
-1.52
32.8
0.20
32.5
1.04
32.4
0.62
32.9
1.23
33.1
0.92
32.8
0.92
32.6
0.62
33.0
0.41
33.1
0.20
33.0
-0.25
32.4
-1.89
32.7
0.95
BEVERAGE & TOBACCO………………………… 5.2
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 1.97
5.3
3.27
5.3
3.27
5.3
2.58
5.3
3.23
5.3
1.27
5.3
1.27
5.4
2.52
5.5
2.50
5.4
1.25
5.4
1.25
5.4
0.00
5.5
0.00
5.5
1.85
5.2
3.50
5.3
2.58
5.4
1.88
TEXTILE MILLS, TEXTILE MILL
PRODUCTS & APPAREL……………………… 10.7
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… -0.92
10.7
-0.62
10.4
-1.26
10.4
-2.80
10.5
-1.86
10.5
-1.87
10.2
-2.24
10.0
-4.47
10.0
-5.38
9.8
-6.05
9.6
-5.88
9.6
-4.01
9.6
-3.68
9.6
-2.71
10.7
-0.08
10.5
-1.95
10.0
-4.54
PAPER……………………………………………… 14.9
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… -3.88
14.7
-2.00
14.7
1.15
14.8
-0.45
14.7
-0.90
14.6
-0.45
14.4
-1.59
14.6
-0.90
14.8
0.68
14.6
-0.23
14.2
-1.39
14.3
-2.51
14.4
14.3
-2.92 -2.059
14.7
-3.76
14.7
-0.17
14.6
-0.51
PRINTING & RELATED SUPPORT……………… 9.6
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… -2.04
9.6
-1.70
9.6
0.35
9.7
0.35
9.6
-0.35
9.6
0.00
9.5
-0.69
9.5
-1.72
9.4
-1.74
9.4
-2.77
9.2
-3.50
9.1
-4.56
9.0
8.9
-4.61 -4.626
9.6
-3.43
9.6
0.09
9.4
-1.73
CHEMICALS……………………………………… 24.4
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… -1.08
24.5
-0.14
24.6
1.23
24.6
1.23
24.9
1.91
25.1
2.31
25.2
2.30
25.3
2.71
25.5
2.41
25.4
1.06
25.3
0.40
25.1
-0.79
25.3
25.3
-0.79 -0.394
24.4
-0.68
24.8
1.67
25.3
2.12
PLASTICS & RUBBER…………………………… 19.9
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 0.67
20.3
0.83
20.4
4.43
20.3
0.83
20.0
0.50
20.0
-1.48
20.2
-1.31
20.4
0.49
20.9
4.67
21.1
5.84
21.2
5.29
21.0
3.10
21.3
21.5
1.59 1.735
20.0
-2.44
20.2
1.04
20.7
2.40
MISCELLANEOUS NONDURABLE GOODS…… 1.9
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.2
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 12.00 26.00 17.31 12.50 16.07
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
2.2
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.6
2.2
2.1
1.8
2.2
4.76 -22.95 -25.40 -35.38 -25.76 42.55 31.91 30.95 36.73
1.9
2.1
1.5
14.65 12.33 -27.45
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
|
|
51
APPENDIX B
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
APPENDIX B
|
|
Historical Data
Annual
Historical Data
2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4 2015:1 2015:2 2015:3 2015:4
2012
2013
2014
2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4 201
TOTAL NONFARM………………………………… 2718.7 2729.7 2739.7 2752.1 2761.6 2781.4 2790.6 2806.4 2824.2 2843.3 2846.9 2861.0 2874.8 2900.1 2715.3 2758.7 2816.1
2781.4 1.60
2790.6 2.08
2806.4 2824.2 2843.3 284
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 0.86
1.62
1.48
1.82 TOTAL
1.38 NONFARM…………………………………
2.91
1.32
2.29
2.55
2.732718.7
0.522729.7
1.992739.7
1.942752.1
3.572761.62.00
Qtr SAAR………..……………
2.55
2.73
0
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
1.75
1.73
1.48
1.44
1.58 % Chg
1.90Prev 1.86
1.97
2.27
2.22 0.86
2.02 1.62
1.94 1.48
1.79 1.82
2.00 1.382.002.91 1.601.32 2.082.29
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
1.75
1.73
1.48
1.44
1.58
1.90
1.86
1.97
2.27
2.22
2
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING
NATURAL
RESOURCES,
MINING
AND CONSTRUCTION……………………… 108.50 107.77 107.90 107.77 107.50 108.17 109.33 110.27 110.57 113.57
115 114.33 112.87 115.73 108.92 107.83 110.93
AND CONSTRUCTION………………………
108.17-0.99
109.33 2.87
110.27 110.57 113.57
1
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -2.42
-2.68
0.50
-0.49
-0.99
2.50
4.38
3.46
1.09 11.30108.50
5.14107.77
-2.30107.90
-5.03107.77
10.55107.500.17
%
Chg
Prev
Qtr
SAAR………..……………
-2.42
1.09 11.30
5
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.72
-2.74
-2.12
-1.28
-0.92
0.37
1.33
2.32
2.85
4.99
5.18 -2.68
3.69 0.50
2.08 -0.49
1.91 -0.990.172.50-0.994.38 2.873.46
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.72
-2.74
-2.12
-1.28
-0.92
0.37
1.33
2.32
2.85
4.99
5
MANUFACTURING……………………………… 315.0 315.8 316.9 317.4 318.5 320.9 322.9 323.4 325.8 328.9 331.0 330.8 331.5 332.7
313.4 318.4 325.2
MANUFACTURING………………………………
315.0
315.8
316.9
317.4
318.5
320.9
322.9
323.4
325.8
328.9
33
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 1.55
1.02
1.39
0.58
1.40
3.09
2.45
0.66
2.98
3.81
2.68
-0.30
0.81
1.53
2.94
1.61
2.13
Qtr SAAR………..……………
2.98
3.81
2
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
3.35
2.95
2.63
1.13
1.10 % Chg
1.61Prev 1.87
1.90
2.29
2.47 1.55
2.53 1.02
2.28 1.39
1.74 0.58
1.17 1.402.943.09 1.612.45 2.130.66
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
3.35
2.95
2.63
1.13
1.10
1.61
1.87
1.90
2.29
2.47
2
DURABLE GOODS…………………………… 195.8 196.5 197.2 197.9 199.0 201.3 203.5 204.0 205.7 209.0 210.6 211.4 211.9 212.8
193.9 198.9 205.5
DURABLE
GOODS……………………………
195.8
196.5
197.2
197.9
199.0
201.3
203.5
204.0
205.7
209.0
21
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 3.89
1.33
1.46
1.39
2.44
4.68
4.35
0.97
3.41
6.49
3.22
1.45
0.92
1.86
5.55
2.54
3.36
Qtr SAAR………..……………
3.41
6.49
3
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
6.05
5.15
4.05
2.01
1.65 % Chg
2.48Prev 3.21
3.10
3.34
3.79 3.89
3.50 1.33
3.63 1.46
3.00 1.39
1.86 2.445.554.68 2.544.35 3.360.97
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
6.05
5.15
4.05
2.01
1.65
2.48
3.21
3.10
3.34
3.79
3
NONDURABLE GOODS…………………… 119.2 119.4 119.8 119.5 119.5 119.6 119.4 119.4 120.1 119.9 120.4 119.4 119.6 119.9
119.5 119.6 119.7
NONDURABLE
GOODS……………………
119.2
119.4
119.8
119.5
119.5
119.6
119.4
119.4
120.1
119.9
12
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -2.16
0.52
1.26
-0.74
-0.30
0.47
-0.69
0.15
2.24
-0.66
1.75
-3.30
0.61
0.95
-1.04
0.11
0.09
Qtr SAAR………..……………
2.24
-0.66
1
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.79
-0.48
0.38
-0.29
0.18 % Chg
0.17Prev-0.32
-0.10
0.54
0.25 -2.16
0.86 0.52
-0.02 1.26
-0.42 -0.74
-0.02 -0.30-1.040.47 0.11-0.69 0.090.15
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.79
-0.48
0.38
-0.29
0.18
0.17
-0.32
-0.10
0.54
0.25
0
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES…… 575.4 578.6 580.2 580.4 582.2 585.7 586.5 590.3 594.0 597.6 600.0 603.1 610.9 615.9
575.1 582.1 592.1
TRADE,
TRANSPORTATION,
UTILITIES……
575.4
578.6
580.2
580.4
582.2
585.7
586.5
590.3
594.0
597.6
60
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 0.86
2.27
1.11
0.09
1.29
2.40
0.55
2.64
2.51
2.47
1.59
2.08
5.27
3.34
2.05
1.22
1.71
Qtr SAAR………..……………
2.51
2.47
1
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
1.91
1.84
1.40
1.08
1.19 % Chg
1.22Prev 1.08
1.72
2.02
2.04 0.86
2.30 2.27
2.16 1.11
2.85 0.09
3.06 1.292.052.40 1.220.55 1.712.64
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
1.91
1.84
1.40
1.08
1.19
1.22
1.08
1.72
2.02
2.04
2
WHOLESALE TRADE……………………… 120.7 121.2 121.3 121.6 122.1 122.2 122.4 122.8 123.6 124.4 125.1 125.6 127.3 129.9
120.5 121.8 123.3
WHOLESALE
TRADE………………………
120.7
121.2
121.3
121.6
122.1
122.2
122.4
122.8
123.6
124.4
12
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 1.00
1.56
0.44
0.99
1.54
0.44
0.66
1.09
2.74
2.72
2.27
1.39
5.75
8.42
2.21
1.09
1.22
Qtr SAAR………..……………
2.74
2.72
2
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
2.11
1.99
1.36
1.00
1.13 % Chg
0.85Prev 0.91
0.93
1.23
1.80 1.00
2.21 1.56
2.28 0.44
3.02 0.99
4.42 1.542.210.44 1.090.66 1.221.09
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
2.11
1.99
1.36
1.00
1.13
0.85
0.91
0.93
1.23
1.80
2
RETAIL TRADE……………………………… 312.6 313.7 313.7 313.4 315.4 317.3 318.2 320.4 321.9 322.9 324.2 326.7 329.3 331.1
312.8 315.0 320.8
RETAIL
TRADE………………………………
312.6
313.7
313.7
313.4
315.4
317.3
318.2
320.4
321.9
322.9
32
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -0.34
1.42
0.00
-0.30
2.58
2.39
1.14
2.75
1.89
1.25
1.70
3.08
3.22
2.25
1.18
0.68
1.86
Qtr SAAR………..……………
1.89
1.25
1
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
0.94
1.08
0.45
0.19
0.92 % Chg
1.16Prev 1.45
2.21
2.04
1.75 -0.34
1.90 1.42
1.98 0.00
2.31 -0.30
2.56 2.581.182.39 0.681.14 1.862.75
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
0.94
1.08
0.45
0.19
0.92
1.16
1.45
2.21
2.04
1.75
1
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES………… 142.1 143.8 145.2 145.3 144.7 146.2 145.9 147.2 148.5 150.3 150.6 150.8 154.3 154.9
141.8 145.4 148.0
TRANSPORTATION
UTILITIES…………
146.2 2.54
145.9 1.81
147.2 148.5 150.3 15
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 3.45
4.77
4.14
0.18
-1.64
4.12
-0.82 & 3.71
3.67
4.94 142.1
0.80 143.8
0.53 145.2
9.42 145.3
1.56 144.73.89
Qtr SAAR………..……………
3.67
4.94
0
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
3.95
3.38
3.57
3.12
1.83 % Chg
1.67Prev 0.44
1.31
2.65
2.85 3.45
3.27 4.77
2.47 4.14
3.86 0.18
3.02 -1.643.894.12 2.54-0.82 1.813.71
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
3.95
3.38
3.57
3.12
1.83
1.67
0.44
1.31
2.65
2.85
3
INFORMATION…………………………………
42.8
43.3
43.9
44.3
44.2
43.9
43.7
43.7
43.9
44.3
44.1
43.7
43.2
42.4
43.2
44.1
43.9
INFORMATION…………………………………
43.9
44.3
4
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -6.28
4.43
5.66
3.38
-0.90
-2.10
-2.11
0.31
1.53
3.69 42.8
-1.50 43.3
-4.16 43.9
-3.91 44.3
-7.78 44.2-1.3543.9 2.0843.7-0.3643.7
Qtr SAAR………..……………
1.53
3.69
-1
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -2.21
0.54
2.09
1.68
3.11 % Chg
1.46Prev-0.46
-1.20
-0.60
0.83 -6.28
0.99 4.43
-0.15 5.66
-1.52 3.38
-4.36 -0.90-1.35-2.10 2.08-2.11-0.360.31
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -2.21
0.54
2.09
1.68
3.11
1.46
-0.46
-1.20
-0.60
0.83
0
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES……………………… 136.8 136.8 137.1 137.7 138.6 139.3 140.3 141.3 142.2 142.3 142.5 144.1 145.1 147.5
137.1 138.2 141.5
FINANCIAL
139.3 0.78
140.3 2.41
141.3 142.2 142.3 14
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -0.68
0.00
0.78
1.86
2.64
2.13ACTIVITIES………………………
2.71
2.98
2.57
0.19 136.8
0.75 136.8
4.47 137.1
2.90 137.7
6.68 138.60.45
Qtr SAAR………..……………
2.57
0.19
0
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.07
-0.32
-0.53
0.49
1.32 % Chg
1.85Prev 2.33
2.61
2.60
2.11 -0.68
1.62 0.00
1.98 0.78
2.06 1.86
3.68 2.640.452.13 0.782.71 2.412.98
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.07
-0.32
-0.53
0.49
1.32
1.85
2.33
2.61
2.60
2.11
1
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
Historical Data
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
52
Table 8: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
January 2016
Table 8: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
Table 8: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
January 2016
Historical Data
2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4 2015:1 2015:2 2015:3 2015:4
2012
Annual
2013
2014
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES… 340.7
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 2.38
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
4.47
342.1
1.65
3.82
346.4
5.12
4.05
348.6
2.49
2.90
353.9
6.26
3.86
363.3
11.06
6.19
364.6
1.48
5.25
370.4
6.48
6.26
376.0
6.15
6.24
379.5
3.81
4.46
376.0
-3.60
3.13
381.5
5.91
2.99
384.0
2.65
2.13
390.7
7.20
2.95
338.6
4.82
4.82
353.1
4.26
4.26
372.6
5.54
5.54
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………… 394.6
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 1.67
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
2.16
396.5
1.97
2.16
398.4
1.86
1.82
398.6
0.23
1.43
397.5
-1.10
0.73
399.2
1.76
0.68
400.0
0.77
0.41
401.1
1.10
0.63
403.3
2.21
1.46
406.1
2.77
1.71
408.1
2.05
2.03
409.2
1.08
2.03
409.0
-0.26
1.41
412.8
3.84
1.67
393.8
2.44
2.44
398.4
1.17
1.17
402.6
1.05
1.05
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY…………………… 276.5
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 0.48
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
2.89
279.9
4.96
3.26
282.7
4.06
3.04
284.5
2.52
2.99
287.1
3.75
3.82
288.9
2.48
3.20
291.6
3.89
3.16
295.0
4.65
3.69
298.5
4.83
3.96
299.5
1.39
3.68
299.0
-0.71
2.51
304.5
7.66
3.24
309.6
6.82
3.73
310.3
0.95
3.62
276.8
3.40
3.40
285.8
3.26
3.26
296.1
3.62
3.62
OTHER SERVICES……………………………… 104.5
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 1.03
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………
2.12
104.6
0.26
1.92
104.8
0.77
1.03
105.7
3.61
1.41
105.9
0.76
1.34
106.0
0.13
1.31
106.1
0.50
1.24
106.0
-0.38
0.25
105.7
-1.00
-0.19
105.5
-1.01
-0.47
104.9
-2.26
-1.16
104.5
-1.27
-1.38
105.2
2.71
-0.47
104.6
-2.51
-0.85
104.3
2.21
2.21
105.6
1.27
1.27
105.8
0.21
0.21
GOVERNMENT………………………………… 423.8
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 0.70
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.99
424.2
0.38
-0.41
421.4
-2.61
-0.98
427.2
5.69
0.99
426.1
-1.03
0.56
426.0
-0.13
0.43
425.5
-0.44
0.99
424.9
-0.56
-0.54
424.2
-0.66
-0.45
426.1
1.77
0.02
426.2
0.13
0.16
425.3
-0.90
0.08
423.5
-1.68
-0.18
427.5
3.83
0.32
424.1
-0.86
-0.86
425.2
0.25
0.25
425.2
0.00
0.00
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN………………………… 50.7
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 7.43
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.78
50.4
-2.35
-0.07
49.6
-5.95
-0.67
49.3
-2.66
-1.00
49.9
5.52
-1.45
49.5
-3.69
-1.79
49.0
-3.72
-1.21
48.6
-3.49
-1.42
47.7
-6.69
-4.41
46.4
-10.97
-6.27
47.5
9.83
-3.13
48.4
7.80
-0.41
47.2
-9.56
-1.19
46.6
-4.45
0.58
50.2
-0.45
-0.45
49.6
-1.23
-1.23
47.9
-3.33
-3.33
STATE & LOCAL……………………………… 373.1
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -0.18
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.02
373.8
0.75
-0.45
371.8
-2.16
-1.02
378.0
6.84
1.26
376.2
-1.86
0.83
376.5
0.35
0.73
376.5
0.00
1.28
376.4
-0.18
-0.42
376.5
0.14
0.08
379.7
3.48
0.85
378.8
-1.01
0.59
376.9
-1.96
0.14
376.3
-0.64
-0.05
380.8
4.91
0.29
373.9
-0.91
-0.91
375.6
0.45
0.45
377.3
0.44
0.44
STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY (% )………
-0.01
-0.01
0.01
0.01
-0.01
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.00
-0.04
0.03
0.01
-0.01
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.01
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
|
|
53
APPENDIX B
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
January 2016
|
2012
Annual
2013
2014
196.5
1.33
5.15
197.2
1.46
4.05
197.9
1.39
2.01
199.0
2.44
1.65
201.3
4.68
2.48
203.5
4.35
3.21
204.0
0.97
3.10
205.7
3.41
3.34
209.0
6.49
3.79
210.6
3.22
3.50
211.4
1.45
3.63
211.9
0.92
3.00
212.8
1.86
1.86
193.9
5.55
5.55
198.9
2.54
2.54
205.5
3.36
3.36
WOOD PRODUCTS………………………
11.1
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 1.77
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 2.88
11.0
-5.02
1.05
10.9
-3.40
-0.80
10.8
-1.85
-2.16
10.8
-2.26
-3.14
11.0
6.84
-0.25
11.1
7.11
2.36
11.1
-0.32
2.76
11.3
5.29
4.69
11.4
3.85
3.95
11.5
4.32
3.26
11.6
3.36
4.20
11.6
1.54
3.26
11.7
2.39
2.90
11.0
2.25
2.25
10.9
-1.59
-1.59
11.2
3.44
3.44
NONMETALLIC MINERALS……………… 12.6
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 5.05
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 5.95
12.6
1.50
4.70
12.6
12.2
-2.12 -12.01
2.34 -2.11
12.0
-6.33
-4.87
11.9
-2.66
-5.86
11.9
0.69
-5.19
11.9
-0.09
-2.14
11.9
1.33
-0.19
11.9
-2.11
-0.06
11.8
-2.65
-0.90
11.7
-3.08
-1.64
11.6
-2.02
-2.47
11.7
0.98
-1.71
12.5
5.80
5.80
12.1
-2.66
-2.66
11.9
-1.94
-1.94
PRIMARY METALS………….……………
9.8
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 4.22
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 6.51
9.7
-3.10
4.06
9.9
8.31
5.65
9.9
0.28
2.34
10.0
1.54
1.67
10.0
2.80
3.19
10.0
-0.82
0.94
10.0
0.52
1.00
10.1
2.99
1.36
10.1
-0.02
0.66
10.2
4.49
1.98
10.2
0.64
2.01
10.2
0.18
1.31
10.3
4.01
2.31
9.7
4.88
4.88
10.0
3.19
3.19
10.1
0.99
0.99
FABRICATED METALS…………………..
34.6
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… -1.00
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 2.63
34.3
-3.67
0.88
33.9
-4.19
-1.69
33.8
-0.60
-2.38
33.9
0.73
-1.96
34.0
1.54
-0.66
34.1
1.41
0.76
34.3
1.98
1.41
34.4
0.89
1.45
34.6
2.79
1.76
35.3
8.43
3.48
35.0
-3.24
2.13
35.1
0.99
2.16
35.1
-0.41
1.35
34.5
2.66
2.66
33.9
-1.67
-1.67
34.4
1.35
1.35
MACHINERY………………………………… 25.6
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… -3.63
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 1.53
25.6
-0.12
2.37
25.5
-0.38
1.08
25.4
-1.47
-1.41
25.3
-2.37
-1.09
25.2
-1.19
-1.35
25.2
0.58
-1.12
25.2
-1.41
-1.10
25.7
9.47
1.77
26.8
17.42
6.25
26.2
-9.04
3.62
26.5
4.67
5.18
26.3
-2.31
2.23
26.0
-4.64
-2.95
25.5
1.66
1.66
25.4
-0.70
-0.70
25.7
1.44
1.44
COMPUTERS & ELECTRONICS…………
5.5
5.3
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………-19.67 -12.78
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… -2.40 -9.59
5.3
-3.24
-8.47
5.3
-2.26
-9.78
5.2
-5.71
-6.09
5.1
-6.00
-4.32
5.0
-5.71
-4.93
5.0
-0.34
-4.47
5.0
-0.97
-3.29
5.0
-0.40
-1.88
5.0
-0.81
-0.63
5.0
2.03
-0.05
5.1
7.23
1.96
5.2
5.23
3.37
5.6
0.58
0.58
5.2
-7.24
-7.24
5.0
-3.66
-3.66
ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT, APPLIANCES
& COMPONENTS…………..……………
17.9
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… -2.13
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 0.96
18.0
3.41
1.90
17.9
-2.56
0.38
18.4
10.54
2.18
18.8
10.13
5.24
19.1
6.72
6.07
19.6
9.10
9.11
19.1
-9.34
3.84
19.4
7.55
3.22
19.5
1.87
2.03
19.8
6.37
1.39
19.9
0.52
4.04
19.9
0.95
2.40
20.0
2.43
2.54
17.9
1.65
1.65
18.6
3.47
3.47
19.4
4.49
4.49
TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT……… 55.2
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 19.55
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 18.62
56.7
11.71
17.78
57.9
8.94
16.37
58.6
4.97
11.17
59.9
8.90
8.60
61.6
11.44
8.54
62.9
8.71
8.48
63.7
5.58
8.64
63.9
1.34
6.70
65.5
10.40
6.45
66.5
6.39
5.88
67.3
4.41
5.59
67.6
2.18
5.80
68.4
4.45
4.35
53.6
17.03
17.03
59.5
11.02
11.02
64.0
7.55
7.55
FURNITURE…………………………………
8.8
8.5
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… -1.57 -12.40
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… -0.08 -2.69
8.6
6.21
-0.07
8.8
6.82
-0.55
8.7
-3.03
-0.92
9.0
14.40
5.92
9.1
3.87
5.33
9.0
-2.49
2.96
9.0
1.07
4.03
9.2
4.77
1.77
9.2
1.14
1.09
9.1
-2.60
1.06
9.2
4.64
1.94
9.3
2.60
1.41
8.7
-2.92
-2.92
8.8
1.06
1.06
9.1
3.50
3.50
MISCELLANEOUS DURABLES…………
14.8
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… -2.20
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… -2.68
14.6
-3.38
-3.12
14.6
-0.25
-1.98
14.5
-1.68
-1.85
14.4
-2.79
-2.03
14.5
2.15
-0.66
14.6
2.45
0.01
14.8
6.53
2.03
15.0
3.67
3.69
15.0
2.29
3.72
15.1
0.46
3.21
15.0
-1.09
1.32
15.2
3.79
1.34
14.9
-2.30
-2.30
14.5
-2.25
-2.25
14.7
1.26
1.26
14.7
-2.07
-2.81
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
TOTAL DURABLE GOODS…………………… 195.8
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………… 3.89
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………… 6.05
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Historical Data
2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4 2015:1 2015:2 2015:3 2015:4
APPENDIX B
54
Table 9: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
Table 10: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
January 2016
Historical Data
2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4
2015:1 2015:2 2015:3 2015:4
2012
Annual
2013
2014
119.4
0.52
-0.48
119.8
1.26
0.38
119.5
-0.74
-0.29
119.5
-0.30
0.18
119.6
0.47
0.17
119.4
-0.69
-0.32
119.4
0.15
-0.10
120.1
2.24
0.54
119.9
-0.66
0.25
120.4
1.75
0.86
119.4
-3.30
-0.02
119.6
0.61
-0.42
119.9
0.95
-0.02
119.5
-1.04
-1.04
119.6
0.11
0.11
119.7
0.09
0.09
FOOD……………………………………………… 32.9
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -4.74
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -0.83
32.5
-4.87
-2.27
32.3
-2.84
-3.53
32.4
1.86
-2.69
32.4
-0.14
-1.53
32.5
1.98
0.19
32.6
0.46
1.03
32.6
0.34
0.66
32.8
2.06
1.21
32.8
0.78
0.91
32.9
0.57
0.94
32.8
-0.90
0.62
32.9
1.18
0.40
32.9
-0.09
0.19
33.0
-0.24
-0.24
32.4
-1.90
-1.90
32.7
0.95
0.95
BEVERAGE & TOBACCO……………………… 5.1
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -2.27
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.03
5.3
10.49
3.20
5.3
2.28
3.30
5.3
0.02
2.52
5.3
0.73
3.30
5.3
2.01
1.26
5.4
2.30
1.26
5.4
4.87
2.47
5.4
0.99
2.53
5.4
-2.88
1.28
5.4
2.10
1.23
5.4
-0.29
-0.04
5.4
1.25
0.03
5.5
4.48
1.87
5.2
3.51
3.51
5.3
2.59
2.59
5.4
1.89
1.89
TEXTILE MILLS, TEXTILE MILL
PRODUCTS & APPAREL…………………… 10.6
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -3.21
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -0.87
10.6
-1.12
-0.65
10.6
-2.01
-1.38
10.4
-4.46
-2.71
10.5
0.54
-1.78
10.4
-1.76
-1.94
10.3
10.0
-3.62 -12.11
-2.34 -4.36
9.9
-3.49
-5.33
9.8
-4.94
-6.11
9.7
-2.96
-5.95
9.6
-4.36
-3.94
9.5
-2.36
-3.66
9.5
-1.35
-2.76
10.7
-0.07
-0.07
10.5
-1.96
-1.96
10.0
-4.53
-4.53
PAPER…………………………………………… 14.7
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -3.80
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -3.83
14.6
-1.02
-1.94
14.9
6.54
1.05
14.8
-3.29
-0.48
14.6
-5.17
-0.83
14.6
0.71
-0.40
14.6
1.13
-1.69
14.6
-0.17
-0.91
14.7
1.29
0.74
14.6
-3.04
-0.21
14.4
-3.79
-1.45
14.3
-4.36
-2.50
14.2
-0.30
-2.89
14.3
0.24
-2.07
14.7
-3.76
-3.76
14.7
-0.17
-0.17
14.6
-0.53
-0.53
PRINTING & RELATED SUPPORT…………… 9.6
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………
1.04
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -2.01
9.6
-1.06
-1.68
9.6
2.19
0.23
9.6
-0.36
0.45
9.6
-2.09
-0.34
9.6
0.33
0.01
9.6
-1.11
-0.81
9.5
-3.59
-1.63
9.4
-2.49
-1.73
9.3
-3.90
-2.78
9.2
-4.23
-3.56
9.1
-7.37
-4.52
9.0
-2.85
-4.61
8.9
-4.00
-4.63
9.6
-3.45
-3.45
9.6
0.08
0.08
9.5
-1.73
-1.73
CHEMICALS……………………………………… 24.4
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -0.04
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -1.10
24.5
1.98
-0.13
24.6
2.45
1.22
24.7
0.70
1.27
24.8
2.41
1.89
25.1
3.75
2.32
25.2
2.23
2.27
25.4
2.60
2.75
25.4
1.04
2.40
25.3
-1.58
1.06
25.3
-0.50
0.38
25.2
-2.01
-0.77
25.2
0.95
-0.79
25.2
-0.01
-0.40
24.4
-0.68
-0.68
24.8
1.68
1.68
25.3
2.12
2.12
PLASTICS & RUBBER………………………… 20.0
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -1.82
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 0.75
20.3
6.19
0.89
20.4
3.41
4.24
20.2
-3.61
0.96
20.1
-3.70
0.48
20.0
-1.81
-1.47
20.1
3.64
-1.41
20.4
4.75
0.66
21.0
12.28
4.60
21.1
2.93
5.83
21.2
1.29
5.23
21.0
-2.99
3.23
21.3
5.00
1.52
21.5
3.86
1.75
20.0
-2.45
-2.45
20.2
1.03
1.03
20.7
2.39
2.39
MISCELLANEOUS NONDURABLE GOODS… 1.9
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 18.23
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 13.22
2.0
23.04
24.21
2.1
5.63
17.47
2.1
4.87
12.67
2.3
2.1
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
40.57 -26.92 -67.39 -6.11 -18.82 16.47
17.65
3.28 -23.01 -25.11 -34.72 -26.65
2.3
2.1
1.9
366.98 -30.68 -20.70
42.69 32.27 31.50
2.1
32.68
35.85
1.9
14.54
14.54
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
2.1
1.5
12.53 -27.54
12.53 -27.54
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
|
|
55
APPENDIX B
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
TOTAL NONDURABLE GOODS………………… 119.2
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -2.16
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -0.79
January 2016
|
Annual
2012 2013
2014
41975 41476 41973
1.57 -1.19
1.20
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING
AND CONSTRUCTION……………………… 45180 44064 45129 47622 45052 44612 45684 48760 46969 46199 46897 49386 49672 49815
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -2.06 -1.26
4.46 -3.83 -0.28
1.24
1.23
2.39
4.26
3.56
2.65
1.28
5.75
7.83
45973 45742 47206
1.02 -0.50
3.20
MANUFACTURING…………………………… 53288 50255 51676 51249 50615 50846 50852 51414 51486 51268 52252 50170 52689 53229
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 6.22 -1.59
4.19 -0.43 -5.02
1.18 -1.59
0.32
1.72
0.83
2.75 -2.42
2.34
3.83
51672 50890 51605
1.83 -1.51
1.40
DURABLE GOODS………………………… 53801 49322 50848 49959 49263 49277 49527 49931 50474 50221 51352 49136 51051 51364
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 10.13 -1.00
3.76 -2.19 -8.43 -0.09 -2.60 -0.06
2.46
1.92
3.68 -1.59
1.14
2.27
51262 49507 50494
3.20 -3.43
2.00
NONDURABLE GOODS…………………… 52457 51785 53036 53378 52854 53456 53079 53945 53217 53056 53820 51982 55594 56527
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.59 -2.26
4.98
2.48
0.76
3.23
0.08
1.06
0.69 -0.75
1.40 -3.64
4.47
6.54
52342 53192 53509
-0.06
1.62
0.60
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES… 38979 38487 38469 38416 38602 38370 37510 38925 38262 38506 39298 38999 39131 39138
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.13 -0.55
2.13 -1.89 -0.97 -0.30 -2.49
1.32 -0.88
0.35
4.77
0.19
2.27
1.64
38773 38224 38748
0.64 -1.41
1.37
WHOLESALE TRADE………………………58391 56984 61541 57278 58056 57634 57843 59347 58168 58938 60235 58850 59725 59131
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.80 -0.36
8.62 -1.73 -0.57
1.14 -6.01
3.61
0.19
2.26
4.14 -0.84
2.68
0.33
58800 57703 59172
2.48 -1.87
2.55
RETAIL TRADE………………………………27109 26636 25778 26518 26245 26376 25418 26546 26099 26255 27142 26461 26647 26986
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.82 -2.75 -2.54 -3.17 -3.19 -0.98 -1.40
0.11 -0.56 -0.46
6.79 -0.32
2.10
2.78
26727 26139 26510
-0.75 -2.20
1.42
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES…………48674 48688 47170 48170 48876 48108 47186 48659 48033 47892 48386 49287 49003 48479
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.22
1.07
0.75 -1.40
0.41 -1.19
0.03
1.01 -1.72 -0.45
2.54
1.29
2.02
1.23
48347 48085 48242
-0.37 -0.54
0.33
INFORMATION………………………………… 54425 55449 55942 53905 54646 54905 52932 56947 56566 56597 53456 57018 56909 58773
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.37
2.96
3.66 -1.35
0.41 -0.98 -5.38
5.64
3.51
3.08
0.99
0.12
0.61
3.84
55114 54097 55891
1.74 -1.85
3.32
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES……………………… 64773 62827 64496 61642 61501 61126 62205 63905 62700 62454 63963 63729 64660 64744
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 10.75
3.20
7.12
0.74 -5.05 -2.71 -3.55
3.67
1.95
2.17
2.83 -0.28
3.13
3.67
63321 61619 63255
5.06 -2.69
2.66
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES 47123 48785 49331 49718 48661 48549 46718 48376 47781 47545 46934 51501 52018 50679
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.35
5.76 11.60
0.96
3.26 -0.48 -5.30 -2.70 -1.81 -2.07
0.46
6.46
8.87
6.59
48621 48412 47659
5.38 -0.43 -1.55
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES……… 42605 42975 42811 42581 42666 42978 42012 42982 42771 43038 42373 43798 43759 44501
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.76 -0.72
1.52 -0.84
0.14
0.01 -1.87
0.94
0.25
0.14
0.86
1.90
2.31
3.40
42834 42559 42791
-0.14 -0.64
0.55
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY…………………… 19717 19672 20121 20342 19197 19245 19945 20544 19670 19619 20810 21199 21089 20653
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 2.08 -1.63
1.57 -4.95 -2.64 -2.17 -0.87
1.00
2.47
1.94
4.34
3.19
7.21
5.27
20227 19682 20161
1.14 -2.70
2.43
OTHER SERVICES…………………………… 38018 37130 37470 37187 36508 37294 37921 39219 37997 38525 39681 40082 40132 40532
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 4.39
0.85
0.97 -0.52 -3.97
0.44
1.21
5.46
4.08
3.30
4.64
2.20
5.62
5.21
37500 37228 38855
0.81 -0.73
4.37
GOVERNMENT…………………………………39061 40783 38079 38805 38941 39804 38108 38707 39794 41047 38350 38975 39702 40934
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.34
1.15 -0.50
0.63 -0.31 -2.40
0.07 -0.25
2.19
3.12
0.64
0.69 -0.23 -0.28
39121 38914 39475
-0.23 -0.53
1.44
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN……………………… 67383 66795 65888 65516 65431 64778 67683 69951 71162 72342 72587 74426 74425 75277
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.60 -1.14 -2.79 -3.69 -2.90 -3.02
2.72
6.77
8.76 11.68
7.25
6.40
4.59
4.06
67023 65852 71511
-1.35 -1.75
8.59
STATE & LOCAL…………………………… 35229 37162 34446 35292 35437 36403 34353 34715 35669 36967 34175 34606 35290 36451
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.54
1.67
0.16
1.75
0.59 -2.04 -0.27 -1.63
0.66
1.55 -0.52 -0.31 -1.06 -1.39
35381 35371 35381
0.05 -0.03
0.03
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
TOTAL NONFARM………………………………… 41938 41847 41875 41917 41417 41569 41000 42227 41757 41951 41958 42800 43201 43357
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.72
0.67
3.60 -0.76 -1.24 -0.66 -2.09
0.74
0.82
0.92
2.34
1.36
3.46
3.35
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Historical Data
2012:2 2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4 2015:1 2015:2 2015:3
APPENDIX B
56
Table 11: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (2009 dollars)
Table 12: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (2009 dollars)
Historical Data
2012:2 2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4 2015:1 2015:2 2015:3
January 2016
2012
Annual
2013
2014
45915 45734 47214
1.09 -0.39
3.24
1.09 -0.39
3.24
MANUFACTURING……………………………… 53296 50341 51782 51066 50623 50896 50965 51261 51478 51296 52377 50042 52672 53241
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 16.96 -20.40 11.95 -5.42 -3.42
2.17
0.55
2.34
1.71 -1.41
8.70 -16.67 22.74
4.39
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 6.24 -1.66
4.18 -0.36 -5.02
1.10 -1.58
0.38
1.69
0.79
2.77 -2.38
2.32
3.79
51667 50887 51603
1.83 -1.51
1.41
1.83 -1.51
1.41
DURABLE GOODS……………………………53820 49385 50928 49812 49294 49288 49624 49811 50501 50190 51470 49035 51073 51311
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 24.98 -29.11 13.10 -8.48 -4.10 -0.05
2.75
1.52
5.66 -2.44 10.59 -17.62 17.69
1.88
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 10.19 -1.09
3.77 -2.14 -8.41 -0.20 -2.56
0.00
2.45
1.83
3.72 -1.56
1.13
2.23
51259 49504 50493
3.21 -3.42
2.00
3.21 -3.42
2.00
NONDURABLE GOODS…………………… 52448 51912 53185 53130 52823 53577 53221 53733 53147 53191 53957 51806 55504 56665
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 5.10 -4.03 10.17 -0.41 -2.29
5.83 -2.63
3.91 -4.29
0.33
5.89 -15.02 31.76
8.63
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.55 -2.28
4.94
2.57
0.72
3.21
0.07
1.13
0.61 -0.72
1.38 -3.59
4.43
6.53
52336 53188 53507
-0.05
1.63
0.60
-0.05
1.63
0.60
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES…… 38870 38405 39147 37918 38480 38282 38188 38469 38137 38411 39848 38539 39120 39083
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 2.29 -4.70
7.96 -11.98
6.07 -2.04 -0.98
2.97 -3.41
2.90 15.83 -12.50
6.17 -0.38
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.10 -0.60
2.29 -1.90 -1.00 -0.32 -2.45
1.45 -0.89
0.34
4.35
0.18
2.58
1.75
38768 38217 38716
0.65 -1.42
1.31
0.65 -1.42
1.31
WHOLESALE TRADE……………………… 58505 57078 61693 56885 58199 57728 58000 58927 58310 59033 60332 58427 59820 59333
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 4.40 -9.40 36.48 -27.72
9.57 -3.20
1.90
6.54 -4.12
5.05
9.10 -12.04
9.88 -3.22
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.80 -0.42
8.70 -1.72 -0.52
1.14 -5.99
3.59
0.19
2.26
4.02 -0.85
2.59
0.51
58788 57703 59151
2.50 -1.85
2.51
2.50 -1.85
2.51
RETAIL TRADE……………………………… 27020 26511 26391 26095 26133 26248 26040 26187 25985 26122 27638 26058 26636 26915
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 0.99 -7.32 -1.80 -4.42
0.59
1.77 -3.13
2.28 -3.05
2.13 25.32 -20.98
9.18
4.25
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.77 -2.81 -2.27 -3.19 -3.28 -0.99 -1.33
0.35 -0.57 -0.48
6.14 -0.49
2.51
3.04
26719 26129 26483
-0.77 -2.21
1.36
-0.77 -2.21
1.36
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES………… 48398 48700 47969 47606 48607 48108 47993 48091 47761 47881 49116 48883 48927 48343
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 0.94
2.52 -5.87 -2.99
8.68 -4.05 -0.95
0.82 -2.72
1.01 10.72 -1.88
0.36 -4.69
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.20
1.02
0.76 -1.40
0.43 -1.22
0.05
1.02 -1.74 -0.47
2.34
1.65
2.44
0.96
48338 48078 48212
-0.38 -0.54
0.28
-0.38 -0.54
0.28
INFORMATION………………………………… 54592 55233 56244 53741 54687 54698 53213 56947 56652 56425 53617 57061 57039 58274
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 0.26
4.78
7.53 -16.65
7.23
0.08 -10.42 31.16 -2.05 -1.59 -18.47 28.28 -0.15
8.95
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.52
2.95
3.97 -1.49
0.17 -0.97 -5.39
5.97
3.59
3.16
0.76
0.20
0.68
3.28
55156 54085 55910
1.83 -1.94
3.38
1.83 -1.94
3.38
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES……………………… 64915 63010 64653 61178 61501 61317 62353 63479 62700 62615 64098 63490 64615 64863
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 30.56 -11.23 10.84 -19.83
2.13 -1.19
6.93
7.42 -4.82 -0.54
9.81 -3.74
7.28
1.54
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 10.54
3.18
7.20
0.74 -5.26 -2.69 -3.56
3.76
1.95
2.12
2.80
0.02
3.05
3.59
63326 61587 63223
5.04 -2.75
2.66
5.04 -2.75
2.66
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
|
57
APPENDIX B
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING
AND CONSTRUCTION……………………… 45249 45214 45743 45709 45289 45705 46233 46842 47267 47299 47447 47468 50063 51066
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………-17.31 -0.31
4.76 -0.30 -3.63
3.73
4.70
5.37
3.68
0.27
1.26
0.17 23.73
8.26
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.85 -1.16
4.35 -3.67
0.09
1.08
1.07
2.48
4.37
3.49
2.63
1.34
5.91
7.96
|
41968 41473 41961
1.59 -1.18
1.18
1.59 -1.18
1.18
Historical Data
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
TOTAL NONFARM………………………………… 41978 41745 42345 41492 41477 41449 41474 41853 41816 41824 42351 42429 43281 43269
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 1.69 -2.20
5.87 -7.81 -0.15 -0.27
0.24
3.71 -0.36
0.07
5.14
0.73
8.28 -0.11
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.70
0.60
3.74 -0.74 -1.19 -0.71 -2.06
0.87
0.82
0.90
2.12
1.37
3.50
3.46
January 2016
|
2012
Annual
2013
2014
48591 48410 47621
5.46 -0.37 -1.63
5.46 -0.37 -1.63
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………… 42493 42819 43131 42517 42598 42787 42345 42960 42700 42829 42749 43741 43698 44240
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -3.37
3.10
2.95 -5.58
0.77
1.78 -4.07
5.94 -2.40
1.21 -0.74
9.61 -0.39
5.05
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.89 -0.64
1.62 -0.80
0.25 -0.08 -1.82
1.04
0.24
0.10
0.95
1.82
2.34
3.30
42826 42561 42809
-0.11 -0.62
0.58
-0.11 -0.62
0.58
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY…………………… 20219 20198 19950 19483 19692 19747 19780 19725 20170 20123 20616 20395 21606 21124
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -5.10 -0.41 -4.81 -9.05
4.35
1.14
0.65 -1.11
9.35 -0.94 10.16 -4.22 25.95 -8.63
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.97 -1.59
1.82 -4.89 -2.61 -2.23 -0.86
1.24
2.43
1.90
4.23
3.40
7.12
4.98
20213 19675 20158
1.16 -2.66
2.45
1.16 -2.66
2.45
OTHER SERVICES………………………………38334 37308 37267 36820 36853 37494 37695 38800 38379 38732 39555 39675 40619 40596
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… 14.82 -10.28 -0.44 -4.71
0.36
7.13
2.16 12.25 -4.27
3.73
8.78
1.21
9.86 -0.22
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 4.36
0.71
0.85 -0.57 -3.86
0.50
1.15
5.38
4.14
3.30
4.94
2.25
5.84
4.81
37485 37216 38866
0.77 -0.72
4.44
0.77 -0.72
4.44
GOVERNMENT………………………………… 38842 39438 39025 39326 38701 38441 39092 39259 39541 39619 39217 39475 39444 39826
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -2.14
6.28 -4.13
3.13 -6.21 -2.66
6.95
1.72
2.91
0.79 -3.99
2.66 -0.32
3.93
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.31
0.74 -0.28
0.70 -0.36 -2.53
0.17 -0.17
2.17
3.06
0.32
0.55 -0.25
0.52
39090 38890 39409
-0.26 -0.51
1.33
-0.26 -0.51
1.33
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN………………………… 67880 66004 65714 65560 65874 63999 67364 69808 71894 71585 74153 74269 73296 75916
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -2.16 -10.60 -1.75 -0.94
1.93 -10.91 22.75 15.32 12.50 -1.71 15.14
0.63 -5.14 15.08
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.05 -1.21 -3.43 -3.94 -2.96 -3.04
2.51
6.48
9.14 11.85 10.08
6.39
1.95
6.05
66962 65699 71860
-1.71 -1.89
9.38
-1.71 -1.89
9.38
STATE & LOCAL………………………………34971 35831 35429 35827 35159 35048 35378 35283 35366 35566 34952 35115 35100 35302
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -2.26 10.20 -4.41
4.57 -7.25 -1.26
3.81 -1.06
0.94
2.28 -6.73
1.88 -0.17
2.32
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.45
1.22
0.50
1.86
0.54 -2.18 -0.14 -1.52
0.59
1.48 -1.20 -0.48 -0.75 -0.74
35351 35353 35292
0.07
0.01 -0.17
0.07
0.01 -0.17
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES… 46989 48575 50369 48900 48675 48339 47725 47744 47777 47334 47630 50903 51918 50530
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………-11.40 14.20 15.61 -11.17 -1.83 -2.73 -4.98
0.16
0.27 -3.65
2.52 30.45
8.22 -10.27
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 1.38
5.70 11.90
0.97
3.59 -0.49 -5.25 -2.36 -1.85 -2.08 -0.20
6.62
8.67
6.75
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Historical Data
2012:2 2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4 2015:1 2015:2 2015:3
APPENDIX B
58
Table 12: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (2009 dollars)
Table 13: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Not Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars)
January 2016
Historical Data
2012:2 2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4 2015:1 2015:2 2015:3
Annual
2012 2013
2014
48780 49204 51501
2.94
0.87
4.67
MANUFACTURING………………………………… 56424 53387 55192 54922 54301 54775 54975 55804 56180 56108 57123 54583 57637 58410
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 8.10 -0.05
6.02
1.09 -3.76
2.60 -0.39
1.61
3.46
2.43
3.91 -2.19
2.59
4.10
54834 54743 56304
3.76 -0.16
2.85
DURABLE GOODS……………………………… 56967 52396 54307 53539 52852 53086 53543 54195 55076 54963 56139 53457 55845 56363
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 12.08
0.55
5.58 -0.71 -7.22
1.32 -1.41
1.23
4.21
3.54
4.85 -1.36
1.40
2.55
54398 53255 55093
5.16 -2.10
3.45
NONDURABLE GOODS………………………… 55545 55012 56645 57203 56704 57587 57383 58552 58069 58065 58837 56554 60814 62028
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 2.37 -0.73
6.83
4.03
2.09
4.68
1.30
2.36
2.41
0.83
2.53 -3.41
4.73
6.83
55547 57219 58381
1.85
3.01
2.03
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES…………41272 40886 41086 41169 41414 41335 40551 42249 41751 42141 42961 42428 42806 42948
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 2.92
1.01
3.92 -0.40
0.34
1.10 -1.30
2.62
0.81
1.95
5.94
0.42
2.53
1.91
41145 41117 42276
2.55 -0.07
2.82
WHOLESALE TRADE…………………………… 61828 60535 65728 61382 62285 62087 62533 64415 63471 64502 65850 64026 65334 64887
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 3.60
1.20 10.53 -0.23
0.74
2.56 -4.86
4.94
1.90
3.89
5.31 -0.60
2.93
0.60
62404 62072 64560
4.44 -0.53
4.01
RETAIL TRADE……………………………………28705 28296 27532 28418 28156 28414 27478 28813 28478 28734 29672 28788 29150 29612
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 3.63 -1.23 -0.82 -1.70 -1.91
0.42 -0.19
1.39
1.14
1.12
7.98 -0.09
2.36
3.06
28361 28117 28924
1.12 -0.86
2.87
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES……………… 51539 51723 50380 51622 52436 51825 51012 52814 52412 52413 52897 53622 53605 53198
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 0.53
2.65
2.52
0.10
1.74
0.20
1.25
2.31 -0.05
1.13
3.70
1.53
2.27
1.50
51303 51724 52634
1.53
0.82
1.76
INFORMATION……………………………………… 57628 58904 59749 57767 58626 59148 57223 61810 61723 61940 58439 62033 62253 64493
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 2.14
4.57
5.48
0.15
1.73
0.41 -4.23
7.00
5.28
4.72
2.12
0.36
0.86
4.12
58490 58191 60978
3.67 -0.51
4.79
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES…………………………… 68585 66742 68884 66060 65981 65850 67248 69362 68417 68350 69925 69333 70732 71046
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 12.72
4.82
9.01
2.27 -3.80 -1.34 -2.37
5.00
3.69
3.80
3.98 -0.04
3.38
3.94
67200 66285 69014
7.06 -1.36
4.12
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES…… 49896 51826 52688 53281 52206 52301 50506 52508 52137 52034 51309 56030 56903 55612
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 3.14
7.41 13.56
2.49
4.63
0.92 -4.14 -1.45 -0.13 -0.51
1.59
6.71
9.14
6.88
51599 52073 51997
7.40
0.92 -0.15
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………………45113 45653 45723 45632 45774 46299 45418 46652 46670 47102 46323 47650 47868 48832
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… -0.02
0.83
3.30
0.66
1.46
1.41 -0.67
2.24
1.96
1.73
1.99
2.14
2.57
3.67
45455 45781 46687
1.75
0.72
1.98
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY………………………… 20877 20898 21490 21799 20595 20732 21563 22299 21463 21471 22750 23063 23069 22663
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 3.89 -0.09
3.36 -3.50 -1.35 -0.79
0.34
2.29
4.22
3.57
5.51
3.43
7.48
5.55
21464 21172 21996
3.06 -1.36
3.89
OTHER SERVICES………………………………… 40255 39444 40019 39852 39167 40177 40996 42568 41461 42162 43380 43608 43901 44477
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 6.23
2.43
2.75
0.99 -2.70
1.86
2.44
6.82
5.85
4.94
5.81
2.44
5.89
5.49
39795 40048 42393
2.73
0.64
5.86
GOVERNMENT……………………………………… 41360 43324 40670 41585 41777 42880 41198 42013 43422 44923 41925 42403 43431 44918
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 0.41
2.73
1.25
2.16
1.01 -1.02
1.30
1.03
3.94
4.76
1.77
0.93
0.02 -0.01
41515 41860 43071
1.66
0.83
2.89
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN………………………………71349 70958 70371 70210 70197 69784 73171 75924 77650 79172 79354 80972 81414 82604
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 1.16
0.41 -1.08 -2.23 -1.61 -1.65
3.98
8.14 10.62 13.45
8.45
6.65
4.85
4.33
71122 70841 78025
0.52 -0.40 10.14
STATE & LOCAL………………………………… 37302 39478 36790 37821 38018 39216 37138 37679 38921 40457 37360 37650 38604 39999
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 0.21
3.27
1.92
3.29
1.92 -0.66
0.95 -0.37
2.38
3.16
0.60 -0.08 -0.81 -1.13
37546 38048 38604
1.94
1.34
1.46
59
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
APPENDIX B
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING
AND CONSTRUCTION…………………………… 47839 46810 48200 51034 48333 48060 49388 52924 51251 50561 51268 53729 54336 54664
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… -0.33
0.28
6.30 -2.37
1.03
2.67
2.47
3.70
6.04
5.20
3.81
1.52
6.02
8.12
|
|
44544 44615 45795
3.50
0.16
2.64
Historical Data
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
TOTAL NONFARM……………………………………… 44406 44455 44724 44921 44434 44781 44324 45834 45564 45912 45869 46564 47258 47577
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………… 3.52
2.24
5.42
0.74
0.06
0.73 -0.89
2.03
2.54
2.52
3.49
1.59
3.72
3.63
|
2012
Annual
2013
2014
44537 44613 45782
3.52 0.17 2.62
3.52 0.17 2.62
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING & CONSTRUCTION… 47912 48032 48856 48985 48587 49237 49982 50842 51576 51765 51870 51642 54764 56036
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………………………… -16.30
1.01
7.04 1.06 -3.21
5.46
6.19 7.07
5.90
1.47
0.82 -1.74 26.46
9.62
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………………….. -0.11
0.39
6.18 -2.21
1.41
2.51
2.30 3.79
6.15
5.13
3.78 1.57 6.18
8.25
48723 49198 51513
3.01 0.97 4.71
3.01 0.97 4.71
MANUFACTURING…………………………………………… 56433 53478 55305 54725 54310 54829 55098 55639 56172 56139 57260 54444 57619 58423
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………………………… 18.39 -19.35 14.38 -4.13 -3.00
3.87
1.98 3.99
3.89 -0.24
8.23 -18.27 25.45
5.70
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
8.12 -0.12
6.01 1.16 -3.76
2.53 -0.37 1.67
3.43
2.39
3.92 -2.15 2.58
4.07
54829 54740 56302
3.77 -0.16 2.85
3.77 -0.16 2.85
DURABLE GOODS……………………………………...... 56988 52462 54394 53382 52884 53097 53647 54065 55106 54929 56268 53347 55869 56305
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………………………… 26.51 -28.17 15.56 -7.24 -3.67
1.62
4.21 3.15
7.92 -1.28 10.11 -19.20 20.29
3.16
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………………….. 12.14
0.45
5.60 -0.66 -7.20
1.21 -1.37 1.28
4.20
3.45
4.88 -1.33 1.39
2.50
54394 53253 55092
5.16 -2.10 3.45
5.16 -2.10 3.45
NONDURABLE GOODS……………………………..
55534 55147 56803 56938 56671 57717 57536 58322 57993 58213 58987 56362 60716 62180
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………………………… 6.39 -2.76 12.57 0.95 -1.86
7.59 -1.25 5.58 -2.24
1.53
5.43 -16.65 34.67 10.00
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.33 -0.75
6.79 4.13
2.05
4.66
1.29 2.43
2.33
0.86
2.52 -3.36 4.70
6.82
55542 57215 58379
1.85 3.01 2.03
1.85 3.01 2.03
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES………….
41157 40798 41810 40635 41283 41241 41285 41755 41614 42037 43563 41929 42794 42887
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………………………… 3.54 -3.45 10.30 -10.78
6.53 -0.41
0.43 4.63 -1.34
4.13 15.32 -14.18 8.51
0.87
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.89
0.95
4.09 -0.41
0.30
1.08 -1.26 2.76
0.80
1.93
5.52 0.42 2.84
2.02
41142 41111 42242
2.56 -0.08 2.75
2.56 -0.08 2.75
WHOLESALE TRADE……………………………………. 61948 60635 65891 60961 62438 62189 62703 63959 63626 64606 65956 63566 65438 65107
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………………………… 5.68 -8.21 39.44 -26.73 10.05 -1.59
3.35 8.26 -2.07
6.31
8.62 -13.73 12.31 -2.00
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
3.60
1.14 10.62 -0.22
0.79
2.56 -4.84 4.92
1.90
3.89
5.19 -0.62 2.85
0.78
62393 62073 64537
4.45 -0.51 3.97
4.45 -0.51 3.97
RETAIL TRADE……………………………………………. 28610 28163 28187 27965 28037 28276 28151 28423 28354 28588 30215 28350 29138 29534
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………………………… 2.22 -6.10
0.34 -3.12
1.03
3.46 -1.76 3.92 -0.97
3.35 24.78 -22.49 11.59
5.56
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
3.57 -1.29 -0.55 -1.72 -2.00
0.40 -0.13 1.64
1.13
1.10
7.33 -0.26 2.77
3.31
28353 28107 28895
1.11 -0.87 2.80
1.11 -0.87 2.80
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES………………………… 51246 51735 51233 51018 52147 51825 51884 52198 52116 52401 53695 53182 53522 53048
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………………………… 2.18
3.87 -3.83 -1.67
9.16 -2.45
0.45 2.45 -0.63
2.21 10.24 -3.76 2.58 -3.49
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
0.55
2.60
2.54 0.09
1.76
0.17
1.27 2.31 -0.06
1.11
3.49 1.89 2.70
1.23
51296 51719 52602
1.52 0.82 1.71
1.52 0.82 1.71
INFORMATION………………………………………………… 57804 58675 60071 57592 58670 58925 57527 61810 61817 61752 58615 62079 62396 63946
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………………………… 1.49
6.16
9.86 -15.51
7.70
1.74 -9.15 33.27
0.04 -0.42 -18.82 25.82 2.06 10.31
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.30
4.56
5.80 0.00
1.50
0.43 -4.23 7.32
5.36
4.80
1.89 0.44 0.94
3.55
58535 58179 60999
3.77 -0.61 4.85
3.77 -0.61 4.85
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES…………………………………..... 68735 66937 69052 65562 65981 66056 67409 68901 68417 68527 70073 69074 70683 71177
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………………………… 32.16 -10.06 13.25 -18.74
2.58
0.46
8.45 9.15 -2.78
0.64
9.34 -5.58 9.65
2.82
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
12.49
4.79
9.09 2.27 -4.01 -1.32 -2.38 5.09
3.69
3.74
3.95 0.25 3.31
3.87
67208 66252 68979
7.04 -1.42 4.12
7.04 -1.42 4.12
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
Historical Data
TOTAL NONFARM……………………………………………….. 44448 44347 45226 44466 44498 44652 44837 45427 45628 45772 46299 46160 47346 47481
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………………………… 2.94 -0.91
8.17 -6.56
0.29
1.39
1.66 5.38
1.78
1.27
4.68 -1.19 10.68
1.14
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
3.50
2.18
5.56 0.77
0.11
0.69 -0.86 2.16
2.54
2.51
3.26 1.61 3.76
3.73
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Historical Data
2012:2 2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4 2015:1 2015:2 2015:3
January 2016
APPENDIX B
60
Table 14: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars)
Table 14: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars)
January 2016
Historical Data
2012:2 2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4 2015:1 2015:2 2015:3
2012
Annual
2013
2014
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES…………………49754 51602 53797 52404 52221 52075 51595 51821 52132 51803 52070 55380 56794 55448
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………………………… -10.31 15.71 18.12 -9.96 -1.39 -1.11 -3.64 1.77
2.42 -2.50
2.08 27.95 10.61 -9.15
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
3.17
7.35 13.87 2.50
4.96
0.92 -4.09 -1.11 -0.17 -0.52
0.92 6.87 8.94
7.04
51570 52074 51957
7.48 0.98 -0.22
7.48 0.98 -0.22
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES………………………. 44994 45487 46065 45563 45701 46093 45778 46629 46593 46872 46734 47588 47802 48546
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………………………… -2.19
4.46
5.18 -4.29
1.21
3.48 -2.71 7.65 -0.31
2.42 -1.17 7.51 1.81
6.37
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………………….. -0.15
0.92
3.41 0.71
1.57
1.33 -0.62 2.34
1.95
1.69
2.09 2.06 2.59
3.57
45448 45784 46707
1.78 0.74 2.02
1.78 0.74 2.02
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY…………………………………… 21409 21457 21308 20879 21126 21274 21383 21409 22009 22023 22538 22189 23635 23180
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………………………… -3.94
0.90 -2.75 -7.81
4.81
2.82
2.08 0.48 11.69
0.25
9.69 -6.05 28.74 -7.48
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
3.78 -0.05
3.61 -3.45 -1.32 -0.85
0.35 2.54
4.18
3.52
5.40 3.64 7.39
5.26
21450 21165 21995
3.07 -1.32 3.92
3.07 -1.32 3.92
OTHER SERVICES…………………………………………... 40590 39633 39802 39459 39538 40391 40751 42113 41878 42388 43243 43164 44433 44547
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………………………… 16.23 -9.10
1.72 -3.41
0.81
8.92
3.61 14.06 -2.22
4.97
8.31 -0.72 12.29
1.03
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
6.21
2.29
2.63 0.94 -2.59
1.91
2.38 6.73
5.92
4.94
6.11 2.49 6.10
5.09
39779 40035 42406
2.69 0.64 5.92
2.69 0.64 5.92
GOVERNMENT……………………………………………….. 41128 41896 41680 42145 41520 41411 42261 42612 43146 43359 42873 42947 43148 43702
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………………………… -0.94
7.68 -2.05 4.53 -5.80 -1.04
8.47 3.36
5.11
1.99 -4.41 0.69 1.89
5.23
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
0.43
2.32
1.48 2.23
0.95 -1.16
1.39 1.11
3.92
4.70
1.45 0.79 0.00
0.79
41483 41834 42997
1.63 0.85 2.78
1.63 0.85 2.78
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN………………………………………. 71875 70117 70185 70258 70672 68945 72826 75769 78449 78343 81065 80801 80179 83305
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………………………… -0.96 -9.43
0.39 0.41
2.38 -9.42 24.49 17.17 14.91 -0.54 14.64 -1.30 -3.04 16.53
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
0.70
0.33 -1.73 -2.49 -1.67 -1.67
3.76 7.85 11.00 13.63 11.31 6.64 2.21
6.33
71056 70675 78407
0.15 -0.54 10.94
0.15 -0.54 10.94
STATE & LOCAL…………………………………………... 37029 38064 37839 38394 37720 37757 38246 38297 38591 38924 38210 38203 38396 38738
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..………………………… -1.06 11.66 -2.34 5.99 -6.84
0.39
5.28 0.53
3.11
3.50 -7.14 -0.07 2.03
3.61
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
0.30
2.80
2.27 3.41
1.87 -0.81
1.07 -0.25
2.31
3.09 -0.09 -0.24 -0.50 -0.48
37515 38029 38505
1.96 1.37 1.25
1.96 1.37 1.25
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
|
|
61
APPENDIX B
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
January 2016
|
Historical Data
2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4 2015:1 2015:2 2015:3 2015:4
Annual
2013
2014
3115
-0.39
3089
-0.05
3110
-0.25
3086
-1.06
3041
-2.37
3014
-2.45
3025
-2.72
3017
-2.22
2990
-1.69
3024
0.33
3105
2.64
3066
1.61
3064
2.47
3111
-0.62
3082
-0.93
3011
-2.27
EMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)………… 2871
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.54
2887
0.29
2833
-0.22
2862
-0.44
2844
-0.94
2830
-1.99
2807
-0.91
2828
-1.16
2805
-1.38
2803
-0.96
2829
0.78
2926
3.46
2883
2.78
2899
3.45
2868
0.64
2842
-0.90
2811
-1.10
UNEMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)……… 247
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………-12.41
228
-8.19
257
1.89
248
1.98
242
-2.36
211
207
197
212
187
-7.24 -19.44 -20.70 -12.12 -11.50
195
-5.84
179
183
164
-9.03 -13.89 -12.10
243
-13.52
PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT)………… 60.8
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -1.81
60.5
-1.56
59.9
-1.23
60.1
-1.42
59.4
-2.21
58.4
-3.51
57.7
-3.59
57.8
-3.87
57.4
-3.38
56.7
-2.86
57.2
-0.86
58.6
1.43
57.7
0.41
57.5
1.26
60.7
-1.81
59.5
-2.09
57.4
-3.43
7.3
8.3
8.0
7.8
6.9
6.9
6.5
7.0
6.3
6.4
5.8
6.0
5.4
7.8
7.8
6.7
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (PERCENT)………
7.9
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
239
201
-1.31 -16.17
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE (THOUS)………… 3119
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.63
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2012
APPENDIX B
62
Table 15: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Table 16: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted
January 2016
Historical Data
2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4 2015:1 2015:2 2015:3 2015:4
2012
Annual
2013
2014
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE (THOUS)………… 3092
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 0.49
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -0.87
3091
-0.10
-0.65
3082
-1.18
-0.32
3067
-1.88
-0.67
3045
-2.89
-1.51
3020
-3.23
-2.30
3007
-1.72
-2.43
2997
-1.36
-2.30
2987
-1.32
-1.91
2983
-0.49
-1.22
3037
7.43
1.00
3096
7.94
3.30
3058
-4.74
2.39
3062
0.42
2.63
3091
-0.88
-0.88
3054
-1.20
-1.20
2993
-1.97
-1.97
EMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)………… 2852
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… 0.83
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… 0.25
2852
0.06
-0.01
2838
-1.94
-0.38
2826
-1.67
-0.69
2812
-2.00
-1.39
2805
-0.96
-1.65
2811
0.78
-0.97
2802
-1.28
-0.87
2789
-1.80
-0.82
2786
-0.39
-0.68
2839
7.83
1.02
2915
11.14
4.05
2884
-4.22
3.40
2891
0.97
3.75
2850
0.28
0.28
2820
-1.03
-1.03
2797
-0.84
-0.84
UNEMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)……
240
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… -3.47
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………-12.50
239
-2.02
-7.78
244
8.34
0.35
241
233
215
196
195
198
-4.25 -12.84 -27.66 -30.21 -2.48
5.69
-0.48 -2.98 -10.07 -19.43 -19.06 -15.06
197
-1.91
-8.35
198
181
174
171
1.99 -30.73 -12.79 -8.29
0.77 -7.49 -11.83 -13.30
241
-12.79
-12.79
PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT)………
60.3
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR…………………… -0.69
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………… -2.05
60.1
-1.27
-1.83
59.7
-2.34
-1.49
59.3
-3.02
-1.84
58.7
-4.02
-2.67
58.0
-4.36
-3.44
57.6
-2.89
-3.57
57.2
-2.53
-3.45
56.9
-2.49
-3.07
56.6
-1.67
-2.39
57.5
6.16
-0.20
58.4
6.66
2.08
57.5
-5.87
1.18
57.4
-0.77
1.41
60.3
-2.07
-2.07
58.9
-2.36
-2.36
57.1
-3.13
-3.13
7.7
7.9
7.9
7.7
7.1
6.5
6.5
6.6
6.6
6.5
5.8
5.7
5.6
7.8
7.6
6.6
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (PERCENT)………
7.8
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
233
197
-3.27 -15.69
-3.27 -15.69
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
|
|
63
APPENDIX B
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
January 2016
TOTAL TAXABLE SALES………………………… 23376 22622 24312 21915 23858 23108 24973 22314 24190 24183 26431 23004 26057 25942
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.74
0.72
1.15 -0.53
2.06
2.15
2.72
1.82
1.39
4.65
5.84
3.09
7.72
7.27
2013
2014
92342 93853 97118
2.70
1.64
3.48
AUTO DEALERS………………………………… 2222
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 7.26
2269
9.30
2037
3.25
2241
1.08
2309
3.93
2413
6.35
2180
7.01
2340
4.44
2426
5.04
2542
5.34
2375
8.92
2536
8.35
2750
13.37
2870
12.91
8745
8.16
9144
4.55
9683
5.90
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS….
974
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -2.00
929
-7.74
1119
7.77
806
0.39
989
1.57
968
4.18
1126
0.57
818
1.53
1007
1.79
1036
6.96
1247
10.83
884
8.03
1100
9.19
1136
9.67
3826
-0.78
3889
1.66
4109
5.64
MISC DURABLE GOODS……………………… 4078
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.53
3741
-2.95
3895
0.59
3491
-5.40
4181
2.52
3933
5.14
4027
3.39
3508
0.47
4244
1.51
4120
4.75
4231
5.07
3532
0.69
4547
7.15
4346
5.49
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES…………… 2460
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 5.51
2422
3.52
2385
3.73
2352
0.41
2552
3.74
2480
2.40
2448
2.64
2426
3.14
2607
2.16
2616
5.46
2611
6.66
2552
5.19
2833
8.68
2808
7.36
9610
5.27
9833 10260
2.32
4.35
FOOD STORES………………………………… 2253
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.98
2278
3.63
2459
1.68
2251
5.11
2326
3.24
2289
0.48
2504
1.84
2211
-1.79
2329
0.15
2367
3.39
2584
3.20
2311
4.52
2420
3.91
2457
3.83
9131
3.14
9369
2.61
9490
1.29
LIQUOR STORES………………………………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
183
9.56
174
4.99
219
4.23
178
3.52
184
0.57
187
7.28
230
4.94
186
4.62
193
5.32
195
4.02
247
7.47
200
7.36
211
9.22
210
8.12
747
6.78
778
4.10
821
5.48
HOTELS AND MOTELS………………………… 638
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.87
627
0.08
582
2.89
502
1.30
630
-1.28
626
-0.22
600
3.11
534
6.27
713
13.18
730
16.69
670
11.74
575
7.69
801
12.38
832
13.97
2343
4.44
2358
0.64
2647
12.27
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE……………… 7071
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 3.90
6790
1.83
7857
0.81
6703
0.15
7175
1.46
6877
1.28
8063
2.63
6913
3.14
7332
2.19
7137
3.77
8542
5.93
7014
1.46
7789
6.24
7708
8.01
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS………………… 1960
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 3.58
1872
2.00
2221
1.88
1893
0.62
1994
1.72
1910
2.04
2284
2.86
1889
-0.22
2045
2.53
1984
3.84
2379
4.17
1916
1.42
2134
4.37
2098
5.75
7934
3.46
8082
1.86
8297
2.66
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION…… 1536 1519
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -10.46 -10.07
1539
-8.72
1498
-6.15
1519
-1.14
1424
-6.24
1510
-1.84
1489 1295
-0.57 -14.73
1458
2.36
1544
2.20
1485
-0.27
1472
13.65
1476
1.21
6190
-9.14
5951
-3.85
5786
-2.78
3750
0.08
3371
-1.59
3660
0.99
3536
1.07
3811
1.63
3396
0.75
3661
3.55
3991
4.73
3465
2.01
3914
6.60
3887
6.16
PER CAPITA ($)…………………………………… 3624
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 1.64
3498
-0.35
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
3672
0.33
15404 15632 16103
2.87
1.48
3.01
28411 28818 29923
2.96
1.43
3.84
14297 14378 14721
1.61
0.56
2.39
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Annual
2012
|
|
Historical Data
2012:2 2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4 2015:1 2015:2 2015:3
APPENDIX B
64
Table 17: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2009 dollars)
Table 18: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of 2009 dollars)
January 2016
Historical Data
Annual
2012:2 2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4 2015:1 2015:2 2015:3
TOTAL TAXABLE SALES………………………… 22989 22878 23007 23361 23472 23389 23615 23780 23807 24465 24985 24523 25642 26228
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -8.65 -1.93
2.28
6.30
1.91 -1.41
3.94
2.81
0.45 11.54
8.76 -7.19 19.55
9.46
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.73
0.93
1.02 -0.66
2.10
2.23
2.65
1.79
1.43
4.60
5.80
3.12
7.71
7.21
AUTO DEALERS………………………………… 2155
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -10.37
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 7.84
2180
4.61
9.76
2194
2.64
2.49
2012
2013
2014
92389 93837 97036
2.77
1.57
3.41
2.77
1.57
3.41
2321
12.64
6.47
2337
2.79
6.51
2331
-0.91
4.38
2375
7.80
5.46
2441
11.57
5.21
2541
17.42
8.77
2526
-2.40
8.35
2697
29.95
13.53
2754
8.67
12.79
8743
8.02
8.02
9143
4.57
4.57
9689
5.98
5.98
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS….
952
919
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………
1.85 -12.84
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -1.78 -7.20
995
957
37.21 -14.50
6.40
1.02
969
5.22
1.84
964
-2.11
4.84
988
10.52
-0.68
977
-4.39
2.14
990
5.12
2.11
1034
18.96
7.22
1088 1059
22.91 -10.17
10.10
8.40
1081
8.58
9.28
1135
21.27
9.81
3813
-0.94
-0.94
3878
1.70
1.70
4089
5.42
5.42
MISC DURABLE GOODS……………………… 3813 3711
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -26.03 -10.23
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.42 -2.64
3797
9.62
0.29
3892
10.34
-5.33
3908
1.67
2.50
3908
-0.03
5.30
3918
1.06
3.18
3914
-0.40
0.57
3968
5.65
1.54
4094
13.28
4.76
4112 3945
1.81 -15.31
4.96
0.79
4252
34.98
7.15
4317
6.21
5.44
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES…………… 2385
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -5.98
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 5.33
2392
1.22
3.74
2412
3.43
3.66
2433
3.51
0.47
2470
6.11
3.55
2455
-2.41
2.61
2474
3.21
2.56
2510
5.91
3.15
2523
2.08
2.15
2589
10.87
5.46
2638
7.82
6.62
2642
0.59
5.26
2741
15.86
8.64
2779
5.72
7.36
9611
5.29
5.29
9832 10259
2.29
4.35
2.29
4.35
FOOD STORES………………………………… 2272
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………
0.24
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 2.96
2298
4.56
4.00
2290
-1.37
1.57
2382
17.13
4.90
2347
-5.73
3.30
2312
-5.91
0.61
2332
3.47
1.82
2336
0.81
-1.92
2352
2.72
0.20
2392
6.89
3.45
2406
2.44
3.19
2440
5.77
4.44
2445
0.82
3.95
2483
6.40
3.83
9131
3.19
3.19
9373
2.65
2.65
9487
1.21
1.21
LIQUOR STORES………………………………
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr……………………
189
8.56
9.63
185
-7.12
4.91
188
5.65
4.29
191
7.40
3.42
190
-2.56
0.66
199
19.65
7.24
197
-3.06
4.96
200
5.64
4.53
200
0.96
5.46
207
12.90
3.94
212
10.89
7.49
215
4.86
7.30
219
8.75
9.31
223
7.79
8.05
747
6.93
6.93
778
4.06
4.06
819
5.36
5.36
HOTELS AND MOTELS………………………… 588
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -0.92
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.47
581
-5.09
0.46
587
4.57
3.23
595
5.39
0.90
580
-9.80
-1.44
580
0.55
-0.01
606
18.65
3.20
632
18.09
6.17
656
16.47
13.18
677
13.18
16.58
678
0.52
11.84
681
1.88
7.79
737
37.30
12.32
771
19.59
13.88
2345
4.74
4.74
2361
0.66
0.66
2642
11.91
11.91
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE……………… 7122
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -2.32
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 3.71
7095
-1.53
1.95
7063
-1.77
1.23
7148
4.88
-0.23
7217
3.92
1.33
7192
-1.35
1.37
7262
3.93
2.81
7360
5.50
2.97
7373
0.74
2.17
7464
5.02
3.78
7694 7468
12.94 -11.25
5.96
1.48
7832
20.96
6.23
8060
12.16
7.99
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS………………… 1982
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -6.09
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 3.29
1977
-0.97
2.00
1967
-1.91
2.04
2026
12.52
0.65
2014
-2.41
1.63
2015
0.20
1.92
2026
2.21
2.98
2023
-0.66
-0.18
2065
8.57
2.52
2090
4.98
3.72
2112 2051
4.29 -10.99
4.24
1.42
2155
21.73
4.36
2209
10.46
5.70
7939
3.51
3.51
8081
1.79
1.79
8289
2.57
2.57
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION…… 1532
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -15.37
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -9.72
1540
2.07
-9.97
1513
-6.82
-9.70
1503
-2.55
-5.89
1524 1443
5.82 -19.69
-0.49 -6.28
1476
9.31
-2.46
1497 1304
5.91 -42.47
-0.41 -14.48
1479
65.49
2.46
1502
6.53
1.80
1495
-1.89
-0.13
1483
-3.32
13.72
1497
4.06
1.26
6182
-9.13
-9.13
5946
-3.81
-3.81
5782
-2.77
-2.77
PER CAPITA ($)…………………………………… 3565
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -9.62
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 1.63
3538
-2.97
-0.14
3548
1.20
-0.05
3593
5.18
-1.71
3601
0.83
1.02
3604
2.85
1.56
3619
1.74
0.72
3704
10.37
3.51
3773
7.63
4.69
3693
-8.16
2.05
3852
18.31
6.59
3930
8.33
6.09
3614
-0.60
0.36
28444 28818 29891
3.02
1.32
3.72
3.02
1.32
3.72
14306 14377 14710
1.68
0.49
2.32
1.68
0.49
2.32
Tennessee Econometric Model
APPENDIX B
65
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
3579
-2.45
1.15
15433 15626 16089
3.15
1.26
2.96
3.15
1.26
2.96
|
|
2252
3.45
4.52
Historical Data
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2233
7.43
0.84
January 2016
TOTAL TAXABLE SALES………………………… 24751 24032 25967 23485 25596 24894 26997 24220 26396 26466 28894 25027 28505 28466
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.56
2.30
2.93
0.98
3.41
3.59
3.97
3.13
3.12
6.32
7.03
3.33
7.99
7.56
2013
2014
98007 100972 #####
4.62
3.03
4.96
AUTO DEALERS………………………………… 2353
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 9.16
2411
11.02
2176
5.07
2401
2.62
2477
5.30
2600
7.85
2357
8.32
2540
5.78
2647
6.84
2782
7.01
2596
10.14
2759
8.61
3008
13.65
3150
13.21
9279
10.19
9836 10565
5.99
7.42
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS…. 1031
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -0.27
987
-6.29
1195
9.67
864
1.92
1061
2.91
1043
5.65
1217
1.79
888
2.83
1099
3.53
1134
8.66
1364
12.07
962
8.28
1203
9.46
1246
9.96
4062
1.08
4185
3.04
MISC DURABLE GOODS……………………… 4318
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.34
3974
-1.43
4160
2.36
3741
-3.97
4485
3.87
4237
6.62
4353
4.65
3807
1.76
4631
3.25
4509
6.42
4626
6.25
3843
0.93
4974
7.42
4769
5.77
16348 16817 17572
4.77
2.87
4.49
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES…………… 2605
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 7.38
2573
5.14
2548
5.56
2521
1.93
2738
5.11
2672
3.84
2647
3.90
2633
4.46
2845
3.90
2863
7.14
2855
7.86
2776
5.44
3099
8.95
3082
7.65
10198 10577 11195
7.24
3.72
5.84
FOOD STORES………………………………… 2385
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.80
2420
5.25
2626
3.47
2412
6.71
2495
4.60
2466
1.90
2707
3.08
2399
-0.53
2541
1.86
2590
5.04
2825
4.35
2514
4.77
2647
4.17
2696
4.11
9692 10080 10356
5.08
4.01
2.74
LIQUOR STORES………………………………
193
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 11.50
185
6.64
234
6.07
190
5.09
197
1.90
202
8.80
248
6.22
202
5.96
211
7.12
213
5.67
270
8.68
217
7.61
231
9.49
231
8.41
793
8.77
837
5.51
896
6.97
HOTELS AND MOTELS………………………… 675
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 6.73
666
1.65
621
4.70
538
2.84
676
0.02
674
1.19
649
4.37
580
7.63
778
15.11
799
18.55
733
13.00
626
7.94
876
12.66
913
14.28
2486
6.36
2537
2.01
2889
13.90
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE……………… 7488
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 5.74
7214
3.43
8392
2.59
7183
1.67
7697
2.80
7409
2.70
8717
3.88
7503
4.46
8000
3.93
7811
5.42
9338
7.12
7631
1.69
8521
6.51
8459
8.30
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS………………… 2076
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 5.41
1989
3.60
2372
3.68
2029
2.15
2139
3.06
2058
3.48
2469
4.12
2050
1.06
2231
4.29
2171
5.49
2601
5.34
2084
1.66
2334
4.63
2302
6.03
8422
5.40
8695
3.24
9053
4.12
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION…… 1627
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -8.87
1614
-8.66
1643
-7.11
1605
-4.72
1630
0.17
1534
-4.92
1633
-0.64
1617 1413
0.71 -13.28
1596
3.99
1687
3.35
1616
-0.04
1610
13.94
1619
1.48
6569
-7.41
6402
-2.54
6313
-1.39
PER CAPITA ($)…………………………………… 3838
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 3.44
3716
1.21
4005
1.84
3612
-0.09
3927
2.32
3809
2.49
4120
2.87
3686
2.04
4007
5.20
4363
5.91
3769
2.25
4282
6.87
4265
6.44
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
4007
2.04
4484
7.15
30158 31006 32652
4.89
2.81
5.31
15174 15468 16063
3.51
1.93
3.85
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Annual
2012
|
|
Historical Data
2012:2 2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4 2015:1 2015:2 2015:3
APPENDIX B
66
Table 19: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars)
Table 20: Tennessee Taxable Sales, Seasonally Adjusted (millions of current dollars)
January 2016
Historical Data
2012:2 2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4 2015:1 2015:2 2015:3
TOTAL TAXABLE SALES………………………… 24342 24303 24572 25035 25181 25196 25530 25811 25977 26775 27314 26679 28050 28781
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -7.53 -0.64
4.50
7.75
2.36
0.23
5.41
4.47
2.60 12.87
8.29 -8.97 22.19 10.84
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.55
2.51
2.80
0.85
3.45
3.67
3.90
3.10
3.16
6.27
6.99
3.37
7.98
7.49
2343
4.87
4.29
2014
98041 100943 105877
4.70
2.96
4.89
4.70
2.96
4.89
2530
0.69
5.72
2592
10.11
7.26
2672
12.90
6.88
2778
16.91
9.99
2748
-4.27
8.61
2950
32.82
13.82
3022
10.03
13.09
9279
10.05
10.05
9836
6.01
6.01
10572
7.49
7.49
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS…. 1008
977
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………
3.10 -11.69
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -0.04 -5.75
1063 1025
40.19 -13.34
8.28
2.55
1040
5.68
3.19
1038
-0.48
6.32
1069
12.09
0.54
1061
-2.85
3.45
1080
7.37
3.86
1131
20.38
8.92
1190 1153
22.37 -11.89
11.34
8.65
1183
10.98
9.55
1245
22.79
10.10
4047
0.94
0.94
4172
3.09
3.09
4461
6.93
6.93
MISC DURABLE GOODS……………………… 4037
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -25.13
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.23
3943
-9.04
-1.12
4056
12.00
2.06
4171
11.84
-3.89
4193
2.12
3.86
4210
1.64
6.78
4236
2.49
4.44
4249
1.20
1.86
4330
7.91
3.28
4481
14.63
6.43
4496 4292
1.36 -16.93
6.14
1.02
4652
37.96
7.42
4737
7.54
5.72
16375
5.08
5.08
16810
2.65
2.65
17555
4.44
4.44
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES…………… 2525
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -4.83
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 7.20
2541
2.55
5.36
2577
5.68
5.48
2608
4.92
1.99
2649
6.58
4.92
2644
-0.79
4.06
2675
4.67
3.81
2724
7.62
4.47
2753
4.27
3.90
2833
12.19
7.14
2884
7.36
7.82
2874
-1.34
5.51
2998
18.42
8.92
3050
7.05
7.65
10200
7.28
7.28
10576
3.69
3.69
11194
5.84
5.84
FOOD STORES………………………………… 2406
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………
1.47
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 4.78
2441
5.94
5.62
2446
0.77
3.35
2553
18.73
6.49
2518
-5.31
4.67
2491
-4.34
2.03
2521
4.94
3.07
2536
2.43
-0.67
2567
4.93
1.92
2618
8.17
5.10
2631
2.00
4.35
2655
3.75
4.69
2675
3.05
4.21
2725
7.74
4.11
9690
5.14
5.14
10083
4.05
4.05
10351
2.66
2.66
LIQUOR STORES………………………………
200
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………
9.89
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 11.57
197
-5.90
6.56
201
7.94
6.13
205
8.86
4.99
204
-2.13
1.99
214
21.64
8.75
213
-1.69
6.24
217
7.34
5.87
219
3.12
7.26
226
14.24
5.59
232
10.41
8.70
233
2.86
7.55
240
11.15
9.58
245
9.14
8.34
793
8.94
8.94
836
5.49
5.49
894
6.86
6.86
HOTELS AND MOTELS………………………… 623
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………
0.29
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 6.32
617
-3.84
2.03
627
6.84
5.05
637
6.83
2.43
622
-9.40
-0.14
625
2.22
1.40
655
20.33
4.46
685
19.99
7.53
716
18.96
15.11
741
14.53
18.43
741
0.09
13.10
741
-0.07
8.05
806
40.33
12.60
846
21.10
14.18
2489
6.70
6.70
2540
2.04
2.04
2883
13.51
13.51
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE……………… 7541
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -1.12
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 5.55
7537
-0.23
3.55
7544
0.36
3.02
7660
6.30
1.28
7742
4.38
2.67
7748
0.30
2.80
7851
5.40
4.07
7988
7.19
4.29
8045
2.90
3.91
8169
6.27
5.43
8412 8125
12.45 -12.95
7.15
1.72
8568
23.64
6.49
8845
13.57
8.28
30184
4.96
4.96
31000
2.70
2.70
32614
5.20
5.20
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS………………… 2098
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -4.94
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 5.12
2100
0.34
3.60
2101
0.22
3.84
2171
14.05
2.18
2161
-1.98
2.97
2171
1.87
3.36
2190
3.66
4.24
2195
0.94
1.10
2253
10.90
4.27
2287
6.23
5.37
2309 2232
3.84 -12.69
5.41
1.66
2357
24.42
4.63
2424
11.85
5.98
8425
5.46
5.46
8693
3.18
3.18
9044
4.04
4.04
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION…… 1622
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -14.33
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… -8.12
1636
3.41
-8.57
1616
-4.80
-8.11
1611
-1.22
-4.46
1636 1555
6.28 -18.35
0.83 -4.96
1595
10.86
-1.27
1625 1423
7.62 -41.24
0.87 -13.02
1618
67.46
4.09
1642
6.06
2.95
1627
-3.77
0.11
1622
-1.18
14.00
1643
5.37
1.53
6560
-7.42
-7.42
6396
-2.49
-2.49
6308
-1.38
-1.38
PER CAPITA ($)…………………………………… 3774
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -8.51
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 3.43
3758
-1.69
1.42
3790
3.40
1.71
3851
6.61
-0.21
3863
1.28
2.35
3896
4.31
2.80
3928
3.37
2.01
4054
11.69
5.15
4125
7.16
5.87
4018
-9.92
2.29
4214
20.93
6.86
4312
9.69
6.38
15181
3.59
3.59
15465
1.87
1.87
16050
3.78
3.78
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
3855
-0.82
2.58
3943
1.53
2.08
Tennessee Econometric Model
APPENDIX B
2526
4.25
7.81
|
2500
14.51
7.97
Historical Data
2417
3.91
5.90
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2394
8.90
2.37
67
2315
5.99
11.48
Annual
2013
|
AUTO DEALERS………………………………… 2282
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………… -9.27
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr…………………… 9.75
2012
Table 1: Selected U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators, Seasonally Adjusted
January 2016
|
2005
2006
2007
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
252717
0.97
258027
2.10
255313
-1.05
257567
0.88
247316
-3.98
251094
1.53
258257
2.85
266947
3.36
268707
0.66
274962
2.33
US GDP (Bil2009$) SAAR……………………………………… 13271.1
Percentage change……………………………………………
2.81
13773.5
3.79
14234.3
3.35
14613.8
2.67
14873.8
1.78
14830.4
-0.29
14418.8
-2.78
14783.8
2.53
15020.6
1.60
15354.6
2.22
15583.3
1.49
15961.7
2.43
TN GDP (Mil$) SAAR…………………………………………….
Percentage change……………………………………………
206562
4.44
220573
6.78
228724
3.70
239395
4.67
243368
1.66
250402
2.89
247316
-1.23
253252
2.40
264022
4.25
279654
5.92
286908
2.59
298623
4.08
US GDP (Bil$) SAAR……………………………………………. 11510.7
Percentage change……………………………………………
4.86
12274.9
6.64
13093.7
6.67
13855.9
5.82
14477.6
4.49
14718.6
1.66
14418.7
-2.04
14964.4
3.78
15517.9
3.70
16155.3
4.11
16663.2
3.14
17348.1
4.11
TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL2009$) SAAR…….................
Percentage change……………………………………………
196674
1.84
203762
3.60
205807
1.00
212564
3.28
217676
2.40
220441
1.27
217358
-1.40
222615
2.42
229291
3.00
238054
3.82
237442
-0.26
242848
2.28
US PERSONAL INCOME (BIL2009$) SAAR…………..........
Percentage change……………………………………………
10838
1.67
11206
3.40
11504
2.66
12028
4.56
12358
2.75
12494
1.10
12095
-3.19
12274
1.48
12726
3.69
13112
3.03
13078
-0.26
13468
2.98
TN PERSONAL INCOME (MIL$) SAAR……………………....
Percentage change……………………………………………
172239
3.86
182791
6.13
189889
3.88
201367
6.04
211376
4.97
220580
4.35
217354
-1.46
226302
4.12
238810
5.53
252636
5.79
255422
1.10
264965
3.74
US PERSONAL INCOME (BIL$) SAAR……………………....
Percentage change……………………………………………
9491
3.68
10053
5.92
10614
5.58
11394
7.35
12000
5.32
12502
4.18
12095
-3.26
12477
3.16
13255
6.23
13915
4.98
14068
1.10
14694
4.45
TN NONFARM JOBS (THOUS)…………………………………
Percentage change……………………………………………
2662.6
-0.10
2705.6
1.62
2743.0
1.38
2782.9
1.46
2797.8
0.53
2775.4
-0.80
2619.3
-5.62
2615.5
-0.15
2661.9
1.78
2715.3
2.00
2758.7
1.60
2816.1
2.08
US NONFARM JOBS (MIL)………………………………………
Percentage change……………………………………………
130.3
-0.24
131.7
1.09
134.0
1.72
136.4
1.80
137.9
1.12
137.2
-0.56
131.2
-4.34
130.3
-0.73
131.8
1.21
134.1
1.71
136.4
1.71
139.0
1.93
TN MFG JOBS (THOUS)…………………………………………
Percentage change……………………………………………
413.3
-3.56
411.8
-0.35
408.8
-0.74
399.4
-2.30
379.9
-4.87
360.9
-4.99
309.2
-14.33
299.0
-3.32
304.4
1.84
313.4
2.94
318.4
1.61
325.2
2.13
US MFG JOBS (MIL)………………………………………………
Percentage change……………………………………………
14.5
-4.90
14.3
-1.34
14.2
-0.62
14.2
-0.49
13.9
-1.97
13.4
-3.42
11.8
-11.61
11.5
-2.69
11.7
1.71
11.9
1.71
12.0
0.78
12.2
1.41
TN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)……………………………....
5.6
5.4
5.5
5.2
4.7
6.8
10.6
9.6
8.9
7.8
7.6
6.6
US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)………………………………
6.0
5.5
5.1
4.6
4.6
5.8
9.3
9.6
8.9
8.1
7.4
6.2
CHAINED PRICE INDEX, GDP (2009=100.0)…………….....
Percentage change……………………………………………
86.7
1.99
89.1
2.75
92.0
3.22
94.8
3.07
97.3
2.67
99.2
1.93
100.0
0.79
101.2
1.23
103.3
2.06
105.2
1.84
106.9
1.63
108.7
1.64
US PERS CONSUMP DEFL (2009=100.0)…………….........
Percentage change……………………………………………
87.6
1.98
89.7
2.43
92.3
2.85
94.7
2.68
97.1
2.50
100.1
3.05
100.0
-0.06
101.7
1.65
104.1
2.46
106.1
1.89
107.6
1.37
109.1
1.43
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, ALL-URBAN (82-84=1.000)……
Percentage change……………………………………………
1.840
2.30
1.889
2.67
1.953
3.37
2.016
3.22
2.073
2.87
2.153
3.81
2.146
-0.32
2.181
1.64
2.249
3.14
2.296
2.08
2.330
1.46
2.367
1.61
BANK PRIME INTEREST RATE (%)……………………………
4.1
4.3
6.2
8.0
8.1
5.1
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (% per annum)………………………
1.128
1.349
3.213
4.964
5.019
1.928
0.160
0.175
0.102
0.140
0.108
0.089
30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE (%)………………………
5.8
5.8
5.9
6.4
6.3
6.0
5.0
4.7
4.5
3.7
4.0
4.2
TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL2009$)………………………………
Percentage change……………………………………………
89918
2.32
92218
2.56
95680
3.75
97860
2.28
98872
1.03
93182
-5.76
86223
-7.47
86956
0.85
89903
3.39
92389
2.77
93837
1.57
97036
3.41
TN TAXABLE SALES (MIL$)……………………………………
Percentage change……………………………………………
78749
4.35
82725
5.05
88284
6.72
92705
5.01
95999
3.55
93236
-2.88
86219
-7.53
88395
2.52
93641
5.93
98041
4.70
100943
2.96
105877
4.89
TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE, NONFARM (2009$)……………...
Percentage change……………………………………………
38815
1.34
39485
1.73
39441
-0.11
40242
2.03
40847
1.50
40545
-0.74
40821
0.68
41444
1.53
41310
-0.32
41968
1.59
41473
-1.18
41961
1.18
TN AVG ANNUAL WAGE, NONFARM ($)……………….......
Percentage change……………………………………………
33993
3.35
35421
4.20
36388
2.73
38122
4.77
39664
4.04
40570
2.28
40822
0.62
42129
3.20
43022
2.12
44537
3.52
44613
0.17
45782
2.62
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
2004
250288
4.12
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2003
240376
2.34
TN GDP (Mil2009$) SAAR………………………………………
Percentage change……………………………………………
APPENDIX B
68
Historical Data
2008
2009
Table 2: Selected Per Capita U.S. and Tennessee Economic Indicators
January 2016
Historical Data
2008
2009
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
TN GDP (2009$) SAAR…………………………
Percentage change…………………………
41243
1.47
42514
3.08
42395
-0.28
42634
0.56
41561
-2.52
41406
-0.37
39356
-4.95
39661
0.77
40420
1.92
41335
2.26
41168
-0.40
41685
1.25
US GDP (2009$) SAAR………………….……
Percentage change................................
45587
1.86
46887
2.85
48014
2.40
48830
1.70
49214
0.79
48633
-1.18
46878
-3.61
47673
1.70
48071
0.84
48777
1.47
49139
0.74
49964
1.68
TN GDP ($) SAAR………………………………
Percentage change…………………………
35441
3.56
37467
5.72
38370
2.41
39556
3.09
39616
0.15
40254
1.61
39356
-2.23
40001
1.64
41323
3.30
43303
4.79
43957
1.51
45272
2.99
US GDP ($) SAAR………………………………
Percentage change................................
39540
3.89
41786
5.68
44167
5.70
46297
4.82
47903
3.47
48266
0.76
46878
-2.88
48255
2.94
49663
2.92
51321
3.34
52544
2.38
54304
3.35
TN PERSONAL INCOME (2009$) SAAR……
Percentage change................................
33744
0.98
34611
2.57
34525
-0.25
35122
1.73
35434
0.89
35439
0.01
34589
-2.40
35162
1.65
35887
2.06
36860
2.71
36378
-1.31
36816
1.20
US PERSONAL INCOME (2009$) SAAR……
Percentage change................................
37228
0.73
38147
2.47
38803
1.72
40188
3.57
40890
1.75
40972
0.20
39324
-4.02
39579
0.65
40728
2.90
41653
2.27
41238
-0.99
42157
2.23
TN PERSONAL INCOME ($) SAAR…………
Percentage change................................
29551
2.98
31048
5.06
31854
2.60
33271
4.45
34407
3.42
35461
3.06
34588
-2.46
35744
3.34
37376
4.57
39118
4.66
39133
0.04
40168
2.65
US PERSONAL INCOME ($) SAAR…………
Percentage change................................
32603
2.73
34222
4.97
35803
4.62
38071
6.34
39706
4.29
40998
3.25
39322
-4.09
40235
2.32
42419
5.43
44204
4.21
44362
0.36
45996
3.69
TN TAXABLE SALES (2009$)…………………
Percentage change................................
15427
1.45
15664
1.54
16051
2.47
16169
0.74
16096
-0.46
14981
-6.92
13721
-8.41
13735
0.10
14071
2.45
14306
1.68
14377
0.49
14710
2.32
TN TAXABLE SALES ($)………………………
Percentage change................................
13511
3.46
14051
4.00
14809
5.40
15317
3.43
15627
2.02
14990
-4.08
13720
-8.47
13962
1.76
14655
4.97
15181
3.59
15465
1.87
16050
3.78
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
|
|
69
APPENDIX B
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
January 2016
|
2005
2006
2007
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
TN PERSONAL INCOME…………...………
Percentage change……………………
196674
1.84
203762
3.60
205807
1.00
212564
3.28
217676
2.40
220441
1.27
217358
-1.40
222615
2.42
229291
3.00
238054
3.82
237442
-0.26
242848
2.28
WAGES AND SALARIES………………
Percentage change……………………
104284
1.37
107774
3.35
109129
1.26
112922
3.48
115251
2.06
113521
-1.50
107965
-4.89
109400
1.33
110853
1.33
114827
3.59
115266
0.38
119019
3.26
OTHER LABOR INCOME………………
Percentage change……………………
24968
6.51
26158
4.77
26715
2.13
25965
-2.81
26618
2.51
26803
0.70
25817
-3.68
25481
-1.30
26011
2.08
27860
7.11
27710
-0.54
27148
-2.03
PROPRIETORS INCOME………………
Percentage change……………………
26618
-1.56
27967
5.07
26282
-6.02
27188
3.44
24205
-10.97
24017
-0.78
26095
8.65
26133
0.15
27896
6.75
29745
6.63
30953
4.06
32225
4.11
RENT, INTEREST, DIVIDENDS………
Percentage change……………………
26736
0.15
26714
-0.08
27238
1.96
29476
8.22
31792
7.86
32598
2.53
30022
-7.90
30559
1.79
32056
4.90
34082
6.32
33543
-1.58
34428
2.64
TRANSFER PAYMENTS………………
Percentage change……………………
32876
4.13
34138
3.84
35531
4.08
36559
2.89
39183
7.18
42789
9.20
46062
7.65
49595
7.67
49388
-0.42
48980
-0.83
49797
1.67
50249
0.91
LESS: PERS CONT FOR SOC INS…
Percentage change……………………
16506
1.61
16998
2.98
17219
1.30
17684
2.70
18051
2.07
17978
-0.40
17644
-1.86
17799
0.88
16140
-9.32
16314
1.07
18592
13.96
19059
2.52
RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT……………
Percentage change……………………
-2302
1.76
-1991
-13.48
-1870
-6.09
-1861
-0.46
-1323
-28.93
-1309
-1.03
-958
-26.83
-753
-21.42
-772
2.58
-1126
45.87
-1235
9.70
-1163
-5.89
PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME ($)…
Percentage change……………………
33744
0.98
34611
2.57
34525
-0.25
35122
1.73
35434
0.89
35439
0.01
34589
-2.40
35162
1.65
35887
2.06
36860
2.71
36378
-1.31
36816
1.20
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
2004
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Historical Data
2008
2009
2003
APPENDIX B
70
Table 3: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of 2009 dollars)
Table 4: Tennessee Personal Income Components (millions of current dollars)
January 2016
Historical Data
2008
2009
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
TN PERSONAL INCOME…………...………
Percentage change……………………
172239
3.86
182791
6.13
189889
3.88
201367
6.04
211376
4.97
220580
4.35
217354
-1.46
226302
4.12
238810
5.53
252636
5.79
255422
1.10
264965
3.74
WAGES AND SALARIES………………
Percentage change……………………
91328
3.38
96683
5.86
100686
4.14
106974
6.24
111913
4.62
113587
1.50
107961
-4.95
111211
3.01
115453
3.81
121860
5.55
123995
1.75
129859
4.73
OTHER LABOR INCOME………………
Percentage change……………………
21866
8.62
23467
7.32
24646
5.02
24597
-0.20
25849
5.09
26819
3.75
25814
-3.75
25902
0.34
27092
4.59
29566
9.13
29807
0.81
29620
-0.63
PROPRIETORS INCOME………………
Percentage change……………………
23310
0.39
25087
7.62
24254
-3.32
25754
6.18
23500
-8.75
24032
2.27
26099
8.60
26565
1.78
29057
9.38
31567
8.64
33297
5.48
35161
5.60
RENT, INTEREST, DIVIDENDS………
Percentage change……………………
23414
2.14
23965
2.35
25134
4.88
27925
11.10
30876
10.57
32619
5.64
30017
-7.98
31066
3.49
33388
7.48
36172
8.34
36084
-0.25
37563
4.10
TRANSFER PAYMENTS………………
Percentage change……………………
28792
6.19
30624
6.36
32780
7.04
34633
5.65
38051
9.87
42822
12.54
46064
7.57
50417
9.45
51434
2.02
51978
1.06
53568
3.06
54826
2.35
LESS: PERS CONT FOR SOC INS…
Percentage change……………………
14455
3.62
15248
5.48
15886
4.19
16752
5.45
17528
4.63
17989
2.63
17644
-1.92
18093
2.55
16810
-7.09
17313
2.99
20000
15.52
20795
3.98
RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT……………
Percentage change……………………
-2016
3.78
-1786
-11.38
-1725
-3.43
-1763
2.22
-1285
-27.14
-1310
1.96
-958
-26.89
-765
-20.10
-804
5.11
-1195
48.63
-1329
11.18
-1268
-4.55
PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME ($)…
Percentage change……………………
29551
2.98
31048
5.06
31854
2.60
33271
4.45
34407
3.42
35461
3.06
34588
-2.46
35744
3.34
37376
4.57
39118
4.66
39133
0.04
40168
2.65
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
|
|
71
APPENDIX B
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
January 2016
|
2004
2005
2006
2007
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
TOTAL NONFARM…………………………………
Percentage change………..………………
2662.6
-0.10
2705.6
1.62
2743.0
1.38
2782.9
1.46
2797.8
0.53
2775.4
-0.80
2619.3
-5.62
2615.5
-0.15
2661.9
1.78
2715.3
2.00
2758.7
1.60
2816.1
2.08
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING
AND CONSTRUCTION………………………
Percentage change………..………………
119.6
0.08
121.3
1.41
125.3
3.28
134.3
7.23
137.8
2.56
132.4
-3.90
109.9
-16.97
105.1
-4.37
108.7
3.43
108.9
0.17
107.8
-0.99
110.9
2.87
MANUFACTURING………………………………
Percentage change………..………………
413.3
-3.56
411.8
-0.35
408.8
-0.74
399.4
-2.30
379.9
-4.87
360.9
-4.99
309.2
-14.33
299.0
-3.32
304.4
1.84
313.4
2.94
318.4
1.61
325.2
2.13
DURABLE GOODS……………………………
Percentage change………..………………
250.9
-3.15
254.0
1.25
254.6
0.22
251.8
-1.11
237.1
-5.83
220.8
-6.85
181.8
-17.66
176.3
-3.04
183.7
4.21
193.9
5.55
198.9
2.54
205.5
3.36
NONDURABLE GOODS……………………
Percentage change………..………………
162.4
-4.19
157.8
-2.82
154.2
-2.28
147.6
-4.25
142.8
-3.24
140.1
-1.91
127.4
-9.08
122.6
-3.72
120.7
-1.57
119.5
-1.04
119.6
0.11
119.7
0.09
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES……
Percentage change………..………………
578.7
0.30
587.8
1.58
598.0
1.73
607.4
1.56
610.7
0.54
600.3
-1.70
559.3
-6.82
555.0
-0.76
563.5
1.54
575.1
2.05
582.1
1.22
592.1
1.71
WHOLESALE TRADE………………………
Percentage change………..………………
126.5
0.00
128.0
1.14
130.3
1.82
132.1
1.36
133.0
0.70
131.7
-1.00
120.7
-8.31
116.8
-3.26
117.9
0.96
120.5
2.21
121.8
1.09
123.3
1.22
RETAIL TRADE………………………………
Percentage change………..………………
313.2
0.27
319.6
2.05
324.3
1.49
328.3
1.22
330.6
0.70
325.5
-1.55
306.9
-5.71
306.7
-0.06
309.2
0.81
312.8
1.18
315.0
0.68
320.8
1.86
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES…………
Percentage change………..………………
139.0
0.64
140.3
0.91
143.4
2.22
147.0
2.52
147.1
0.04
143.1
-2.70
131.7
-8.00
131.5
-0.12
136.4
3.75
141.8
3.89
145.4
2.54
148.0
1.81
INFORMATION…………………………………
Percentage change………..………………
51.2
-4.08
49.5
-3.31
49.4
-0.20
49.6
0.37
50.3
1.41
50.5
0.51
46.9
-7.27
45.0
-3.98
43.8
-2.74
43.2
-1.35
44.1
2.08
43.9
-0.36
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES………………………
Percentage change………..………………
139.8
1.15
141.9
1.46
143.3
0.99
143.6
0.20
144.8
0.89
145.1
0.18
140.5
-3.15
137.1
-2.45
136.5
-0.44
137.1
0.45
138.2
0.78
141.5
2.41
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES…
Percentage change………..………………
287.3
-3.15
302.3
5.21
312.5
3.38
319.2
2.13
322.8
1.14
321.4
-0.43
293.6
-8.64
304.1
3.57
323.1
6.24
338.6
4.82
353.1
4.26
372.6
5.54
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES…………
Percentage change………..………………
312.7
4.20
320.7
2.57
330.3
3.00
340.8
3.16
349.9
2.68
358.7
2.50
365.7
1.96
373.9
2.24
384.4
2.81
393.8
2.44
398.4
1.17
402.6
1.05
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY……………………
Percentage change………..………………
246.7
2.81
253.6
2.82
262.1
3.34
270.1
3.07
276.2
2.23
273.7
-0.88
263.5
-3.73
262.0
-0.58
267.7
2.15
276.8
3.40
285.8
3.26
296.1
3.62
OTHER SERVICES………………………………
Percentage change………..………………
102.3
0.62
101.7
-0.57
100.7
-0.99
101.7
0.99
104.0
2.33
104.5
0.42
102.0
-2.36
101.2
-0.82
102.0
0.85
104.3
2.21
105.6
1.27
105.8
0.21
GOVERNMENT…………………………………
Percentage change………..………………
411.1
0.20
415.0
0.96
412.7
-0.56
417.0
1.05
421.4
1.07
427.8
1.52
428.6
0.18
433.1
1.04
427.8
-1.22
424.1
-0.86
425.2
0.25
425.2
0.00
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN…………………………
Percentage change………..………………
51.2
-1.21
50.1
-2.23
49.2
-1.65
48.9
-0.64
48.8
-0.27
49.5
1.35
50.1
1.21
52.4
4.66
50.4
-3.77
50.2
-0.45
49.6
-1.23
47.9
-3.33
STATE & LOCAL………………………………
Percentage change………..………………
359.9
0.41
364.9
1.41
363.4
-0.42
368.1
1.27
372.6
1.24
378.4
1.55
378.6
0.04
380.7
0.57
377.4
-0.87
373.9
-0.91
375.6
0.45
377.3
0.44
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
-0.01
-0.01
0.00
0.01
|
STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY (% )………
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Historical Data
2008
2009
2003
APPENDIX B
72
Table 5: Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (thousands of jobs)
Table 6: Tennessee Durable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs)
January 2016
Historical Data
2008
2009
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2011
2012
2013
2014
TOTAL DURABLE GOODS……………………
Percentage change………..……………
250.9
-3.15
254.0
1.25
254.6
0.22
251.8
-1.11
237.1
-5.83
220.8
-6.85
181.8
-17.66
176.3
-3.04
183.7
4.21
193.9
5.55
198.9
2.54
205.5
3.36
WOOD PRODUCTS………………………
Percentage change………..……………
16.7
-4.74
17.4
4.07
17.7
1.91
17.9
0.95
16.1
-10.14
14.3
-11.24
11.3
-20.84
10.9
-3.55
10.8
-1.07
11.0
2.25
10.9
-1.59
11.2
3.44
NONMETALLIC MINERALS………………
Percentage change………..……………
15.6
2.94
15.7
0.64
15.9
1.73
16.1
1.05
15.5
-3.52
14.2
-8.38
11.6
-18.89
11.3
-2.05
11.8
4.20
12.5
5.80
12.1
-2.66
11.9
-1.94
PRIMARY METALS………….……………
Percentage change………..……………
11.8
-6.74
12.1
2.90
12.0
-0.97
11.8
-1.55
11.7
-0.85
11.1
-4.97
9.0
-18.84
8.8
-2.68
9.2
4.66
9.7
4.89
10.0
3.19
10.1
0.99
FABRICATED METALS…………………..
Percentage change………..……………
41.4
-0.05
41.7
0.68
42.6
2.23
43.4
1.92
41.5
-4.46
39.7
-4.30
33.6
-15.37
33.0
-1.95
33.6
1.92
34.5
2.67
33.9
-1.67
34.4
1.35
MACHINERY…………………………………
Percentage change………..……………
33.2
-7.52
34.3
3.21
33.9
-1.16
33.2
-1.97
32.0
-3.69
31.2
-2.50
26.0
-16.63
24.8
-4.79
25.1
1.48
25.5
1.67
25.4
-0.70
25.7
1.44
COMPUTERS & ELECTRONICS…………
Percentage change………..……………
11.7
-9.59
11.3
-3.39
10.4
-7.48
9.3
-11.27
8.1
-12.55
7.4
-8.27
6.2
-16.07
5.6
-10.58
5.6
0.44
5.6
0.58
5.2
-7.24
5.0
-3.66
ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT, APPLIANCES
& COMPONENTS…………..……………
Percentage change………..……………
23.6
-5.65
23.1
-2.22
23.5
1.65
23.2
-1.36
22.1
-4.66
20.6
-6.94
17.8
-13.52
16.9
-5.00
17.7
4.51
17.9
1.65
18.6
3.47
19.4
4.49
TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT………
Percentage change………..……………
60.2
0.28
62.9
4.53
63.9
1.59
63.7
-0.27
58.6
-7.99
52.5
-10.46
40.4
-22.96
40.5
0.03
45.8
13.20
53.6
17.03
59.5
11.02
64.0
7.55
FURNITURE…………………………………
Percentage change………..……………
19.9
-6.59
19.6
-1.34
19.2
-2.04
17.7
-7.71
16.0
-9.72
14.2
-11.08
10.8
-24.26
9.7
-10.21
8.9
-7.73
8.7
-2.92
8.8
1.06
9.1
3.50
MISCELLANEOUS DURABLES…………
Percentage change………..……………
16.8
-1.76
15.9
-5.22
15.3
-3.83
15.3
0.16
15.4
0.18
15.5
0.98
15.0
-2.99
14.9
-0.68
15.2
1.83
14.9
-2.30
14.5
-2.25
14.7
1.26
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
|
|
73
APPENDIX B
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2010
January 2016
|
2005
2006
2007
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
162.4
-4.19
157.8
-2.82
154.2
-2.28
147.6
-4.25
142.8
-3.24
140.1
-1.91
127.4
-9.08
122.6
-3.72
120.7
-1.57
119.5
-1.04
119.6
0.11
119.7
0.09
FOOD………………………………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
35.9
-0.43
34.8
-3.04
34.3
-1.38
34.0
-0.97
32.7
-3.84
32.5
-0.62
32.3
-0.46
32.6
0.80
33.1
1.62
33.0
-0.24
32.4
-1.90
32.7
0.95
BEVERAGE & TOBACCO………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
6.1
-3.77
5.8
-6.12
5.4
-5.79
5.2
-4.31
5.1
-2.56
5.1
0.14
5.1
0.16
5.0
-1.64
5.0
0.18
5.2
3.51
5.3
2.58
5.4
1.88
TEXTILE MILLS, TEXTILE MILL
PRODUCTS & APPAREL……………………
Percentage change………..…………………
21.3
-12.94
19.4
-8.85
18.0
-7.37
16.1
-10.55
15.1
-6.37
14.8
-2.09
12.6
-14.93
11.5
-8.35
10.7
-7.20
10.7
-0.07
10.5
-1.96
10.0
-4.53
PAPER……………………………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
19.6
-4.02
18.8
-3.92
18.9
0.72
18.3
-3.23
17.4
-5.06
17.2
-1.02
16.2
-6.13
15.7
-2.94
15.3
-2.53
14.7
-3.76
14.7
-0.17
14.6
-0.53
PRINTING & RELATED SUPPORT……………
Percentage change………..…………………
19.9
-3.16
19.6
-1.20
18.8
-4.32
17.8
-5.39
17.0
-4.51
15.7
-7.53
13.3
-15.27
11.4
-13.96
10.0
-12.93
9.6
-3.45
9.6
0.08
9.5
-1.73
CHEMICALS………………………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
28.6
0.36
27.6
-3.29
27.2
-1.76
26.3
-3.14
26.9
2.34
27.5
2.20
25.8
-6.17
25.0
-3.26
24.6
-1.63
24.4
-0.68
24.8
1.68
25.3
2.12
PLASTICS & RUBBER…………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
28.2
-6.14
28.9
2.59
29.3
1.46
27.6
-5.76
26.6
-3.64
25.4
-4.39
20.4
-19.81
19.9
-2.49
20.5
2.90
20.0
-2.45
20.2
1.03
20.7
2.39
MISCELLANEOUS NONDURABLE GOODS…
Percentage change………..…………………
2.8
-10.49
2.8
0.06
2.3
-20.22
2.3
3.32
2.1
-8.57
2.0
-9.00
1.8
-9.44
1.6
-10.87
1.7
4.82
1.9
14.67
2.1
12.41
1.5
-27.57
TOTAL NONDURABLE GOODS…………………
Percentage change………..…………………
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
2004
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Historical Data
2008
2009
2003
APPENDIX B
74
Table 7: Tennessee Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Employment (thousands of jobs)
Table 8: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (2009 dollars)
January 2016
Historical Data
2008
2009
2006
2007
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
39441
-0.11
40242
2.03
40847
1.50
40545
-0.74
40821
0.68
41444
1.53
41310
-0.32
41968
1.59
41473
-1.18
41961
1.18
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING
AND CONSTRUCTION………………………
Percentage change………..………………
41700
0.85
41541
-0.38
42264
1.74
44071
4.27
45329
2.86
45128
-0.44
44526
-1.33
45426
2.02
45418
-0.02
45915
1.09
45734
-0.39
47214
3.24
MANUFACTURING………………………………
Percentage change………..………………
45856
1.63
46892
2.26
46605
-0.61
47371
1.64
48006
1.34
48163
0.33
48923
1.58
51200
4.66
50738
-0.90
51667
1.83
50887
-1.51
51603
1.41
DURABLE GOODS……………………………
Percentage change………..………………
45284
0.91
46069
1.73
45774
-0.64
46584
1.77
47071
1.04
47379
0.66
48242
1.82
50335
4.34
49667
-1.33
51259
3.21
49504
-3.42
50493
2.00
NONDURABLE GOODS……………………
Percentage change………..………………
46742
2.74
48219
3.16
47976
-0.50
48721
1.55
49551
1.70
49402
-0.30
49884
0.97
52453
5.15
52365
-0.17
52336
-0.05
53188
1.63
53507
0.60
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES……
Percentage change………..………………
36969
0.91
37525
1.50
37797
0.72
38337
1.43
38926
1.54
38008
-2.36
37815
-0.51
38270
1.20
38519
0.65
38768
0.65
38217
-1.42
38716
1.31
WHOLESALE TRADE………………………
Percentage change………..………………
51712
2.08
53743
3.93
54161
0.78
56196
3.76
57141
1.68
56361
-1.37
55941
-0.74
56904
1.72
57355
0.79
58788
2.50
57703
-1.85
59151
2.51
RETAIL TRADE………………………………
Percentage change………..………………
26656
0.30
26489
-0.63
26583
0.36
26659
0.29
27206
2.05
26281
-3.40
26401
0.46
26841
1.67
26925
0.31
26719
-0.77
26129
-2.21
26483
1.36
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES…………
Percentage change………..………………
46786
0.52
47872
2.32
48297
0.89
48367
0.15
48796
0.89
47789
-2.06
47801
0.02
48376
1.20
48520
0.30
48338
-0.38
48078
-0.54
48212
0.28
INFORMATION…………………………………
Percentage change………..………………
46609
1.28
48212
3.44
48521
0.64
52767
8.75
52342
-0.81
51111
-2.35
51533
0.83
52405
1.69
54163
3.35
55156
1.83
54085
-1.94
55910
3.38
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES………………………
Percentage change………..………………
54730
5.52
56157
2.61
54620
-2.74
57508
5.29
58928
2.47
57322
-2.73
57385
0.11
60363
5.19
60287
-0.13
63326
5.04
61587
-2.75
63223
2.66
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES…
Percentage change………..………………
39828
0.91
40484
1.65
40405
-0.20
41932
3.78
43665
4.13
44569
2.07
46282
3.84
46898
1.33
46076
-1.75
48591
5.46
48410
-0.37
47621
-1.63
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES…………
Percentage change………..………………
40127
0.57
41473
3.35
42147
1.62
42295
0.35
42744
1.06
42642
-0.24
43665
2.40
43532
-0.30
42873
-1.51
42826
-0.11
42561
-0.62
42809
0.58
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY……………………
Percentage change………..………………
19556
0.85
19545
-0.05
19397
-0.76
19858
2.38
20195
1.69
19686
-2.52
19666
-0.10
20077
2.09
19982
-0.47
20213
1.16
19675
-2.66
20158
2.45
OTHER SERVICES………………………………
Percentage change………..………………
35909
2.17
37014
3.08
36314
-1.89
37234
2.53
36543
-1.85
36437
-0.29
37018
1.60
37008
-0.03
37199
0.52
37485
0.77
37216
-0.72
38866
4.44
GOVERNMENT…………………………………
Percentage change………..………………
37683
2.14
38100
1.11
38110
0.03
38495
1.01
38989
1.28
38902
-0.22
39122
0.57
39028
-0.24
39191
0.42
39090
-0.26
38890
-0.51
39409
1.33
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN…………………………
Percentage change………..………………
60785
4.50
63097
3.80
63215
0.19
63610
0.62
64920
2.06
63166
-2.70
64208
1.65
65783
2.45
68125
3.56
66962
-1.71
65699
-1.89
71860
9.38
STATE & LOCAL………………………………
Percentage change………..………………
34395
1.71
34671
0.80
34709
0.11
35156
1.29
35593
1.24
35731
0.39
35805
0.21
35362
-1.24
35327
-0.10
35351
0.07
35353
0.01
35292
-0.17
75
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
APPENDIX B
2005
39485
1.73
|
|
2004
38815
1.34
Historical Data
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2003
TOTAL NONFARM…………………………………
Percentage change………..………………
Table 9: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector (current dollars)
January 2016
2007
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
TOTAL NONFARM………………………………………………..
Percentage change………..………………………………
33993
3.35
35421
4.20
36388
2.73
38122
4.77
39664
4.04
40570
2.28
40822
0.62
42129
3.20
43022
2.12
44537
3.52
44613
0.17
45782
2.62
NATURAL RESOURCES, MINING & CONSTRUCTION…
Percentage change………..………………………………
36519
2.86
37263
2.04
38995
4.65
41749
7.06
44020
5.44
45155
2.58
44523
-1.40
46175
3.71
47298
2.43
48723
3.01
49198
0.97
51513
4.71
MANUFACTURING……………………………………………
Percentage change………..………………………………
40160
3.65
42067
4.75
42999
2.22
44875
4.36
46615
3.88
48192
3.38
48934
1.54
52048
6.36
52839
1.52
54829
3.77
54740
-0.16
56302
2.85
DURABLE GOODS……………………………………......
Percentage change………..………………………………
39659
2.92
41328
4.21
42231
2.19
44128
4.49
45705
3.57
47412
3.74
48252
1.77
51167
6.04
51724
1.09
54394
5.16
53253
-2.10
55092
3.45
NONDURABLE GOODS……………………………..
Percentage change………..………………………………
40936
4.78
43260
5.68
44266
2.33
46156
4.27
48119
4.25
49426
2.72
49896
0.95
53325
6.87
54531
2.26
55542
1.85
57215
3.01
58379
2.03
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES………….
Percentage change………..………………………………
32376
2.91
33663
3.97
34872
3.59
36317
4.14
37796
4.07
38030
0.62
37816
-0.56
38903
2.87
40116
3.12
41142
2.56
41111
-0.08
42242
2.75
WHOLESALE TRADE…………………………………….
Percentage change………..………………………………
45288
4.11
48212
6.46
49972
3.65
53236
6.53
55483
4.22
56395
1.64
55941
-0.81
57846
3.41
59732
3.26
62393
4.45
62073
-0.51
64537
3.97
RETAIL TRADE…………………………………………….
Percentage change………..………………………………
23344
2.30
23762
1.79
24525
3.21
25255
2.98
26417
4.60
26298
-0.45
26402
0.40
27285
3.34
28043
2.78
28353
1.11
28107
-0.87
28895
2.80
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES…………………………
Percentage change………..………………………………
40974
2.51
42943
4.81
44556
3.75
45819
2.84
47379
3.40
47815
0.92
47802
-0.03
49176
2.87
50528
2.75
51296
1.52
51719
0.82
52602
1.71
INFORMATION…………………………………………………
Percentage change………..………………………………
40816
3.28
43247
5.96
44752
3.48
49988
11.70
50817
1.66
51141
0.64
51535
0.77
53268
3.36
56408
5.89
58535
3.77
58179
-0.61
60999
4.85
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES………………………………….....
Percentage change………..………………………………
47931
7.61
50379
5.11
50399
0.04
54482
8.10
57219
5.02
57358
0.24
57388
0.05
61370
6.94
62787
2.31
67208
7.04
66252
-1.42
68979
4.12
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES…………………
Percentage change………..………………………………
34880
2.91
36314
4.11
37273
2.64
39723
6.57
42403
6.75
44594
5.17
46283
3.79
47673
3.00
47982
0.65
51570
7.48
52074
0.98
51957
-0.22
EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES……………………….
Percentage change………..………………………………
35143
2.57
37206
5.87
38886
4.52
40065
3.03
41506
3.60
42670
2.80
43666
2.33
44252
1.34
44652
0.90
45448
1.78
45784
0.74
46707
2.02
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY……………………………………
Percentage change………..………………………………
17126
2.85
17532
2.37
17896
2.07
18812
5.12
19610
4.24
19698
0.45
19666
-0.17
20409
3.78
20811
1.97
21450
3.07
21165
-1.32
21995
3.92
OTHER SERVICES…………………………………………...
Percentage change………..………………………………
31446
4.18
33199
5.57
33504
0.92
35272
5.27
35482
0.60
36458
2.75
37021
1.54
37619
1.61
38739
2.98
39779
2.69
40035
0.64
42406
5.92
GOVERNMENT………………………………………………..
Percentage change………..………………………………
33000
4.16
34178
3.57
35159
2.87
36467
3.72
37858
3.82
38925
2.82
39120
0.50
39672
1.41
40817
2.88
41483
1.63
41834
0.85
42997
2.78
FEDERAL, CIVILIAN……………………………………….
Percentage change………..………………………………
53231
6.58
56597
6.32
58318
3.04
60258
3.33
63034
4.61
63202
0.27
64209
1.59
66876
4.15
70947
6.09
71056
0.15
70675
-0.54
78407
10.94
STATE & LOCAL…………………………………………...
Percentage change………..………………………………
30121
3.72
31103
3.26
32021
2.95
33304
4.01
34562
3.78
35753
3.45
35803
0.14
35946
0.40
36793
2.36
37515
1.96
38029
1.37
38505
1.25
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
2006
|
2005
|
2004
APPENDIX B
76
Historical Data
2008
2009
2003
Table 10: Tennessee Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate
January 2016
Historical Data
2008
2009
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE (THOUS)…………
Percentage change………………………
2912
0.18
2880
-1.11
2901
0.73
3032
4.52
3062
0.97
3052
-0.32
EMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)…………
Percentage change………………………
2748
-0.29
2726
-0.81
2740
0.54
2874
4.89
2916
1.46
UNEMPLOYED PERSONS (THOUS)……
Percentage change………………………
164
8.81
154
-6.01
161
4.17
158
-1.86
PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT)………
Percentage change………………………
63.8
-0.73
62.4
-2.18
62.0
-0.66
5.6
5.4
5.5
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (PERCENT)………
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
3050
-0.05
3088
1.23
3118
0.99
3091
-0.88
3054
-1.20
2993
-1.97
2845
-2.46
2727
-4.14
2790
2.32
2842
1.85
2850
0.28
2820
-1.03
2797
-0.84
145
-7.93
207
42.71
323
56.11
298
-7.95
276
-7.13
241
-12.79
233
-3.27
197
-15.69
63.7
2.78
63.3
-0.70
62.2
-1.67
61.4
-1.22
61.6
0.32
61.6
-0.06
60.3
-2.07
58.9
-2.36
57.1
-3.13
5.2
4.7
6.8
10.6
9.6
8.9
7.8
7.6
6.6
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
|
|
77
APPENDIX B
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
January 2016
|
Historical Data
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
TOTAL TAXABLE SALES…………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
89918
2.32
92218
2.56
95680
3.75
97860
2.28
98872
1.03
93182
-5.76
86223
-7.47
86956
0.85
89903
3.39
92389
2.77
93837
1.57
97036
3.41
AUTO DEALERS…………………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
10769
4.67
10529
-2.23
10224
-2.90
9911
-3.06
9788
-1.24
7935
-18.93
6724
-15.27
7546
12.22
8094
7.26
8743
8.02
9143
4.57
9689
5.98
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS….
Percentage change………..…………………
4490
5.59
4626
3.02
5205
12.52
4940
-5.10
4888
-1.06
4495
-8.04
3491
-22.33
3595
2.96
3850
7.09
3813
-0.94
3878
1.70
4089
5.42
MISC DURABLE GOODS………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
14719
3.00
15810
7.41
17170
8.60
18165
5.80
17964
-1.11
16339
-9.05
13748
-15.86
14258
3.71
14961
4.93
15433
3.15
15626
1.26
16089
2.96
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES……………
Percentage change………..…………………
7896
3.28
8309
5.24
8627
3.83
8935
3.56
9144
2.35
8968
-1.92
8841
-1.42
8909
0.78
9128
2.45
9611
5.29
9832
2.29
10259
4.35
FOOD STORES…………………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
8966
-3.55
8849
-1.31
8884
0.40
8887
0.04
8992
1.17
8592
-4.44
8822
2.68
8740
-0.93
8849
1.24
9131
3.19
9373
2.65
9487
1.21
LIQUOR STORES………………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
495
4.10
510
3.20
536
5.09
578
7.76
612
5.86
636
3.89
657
3.37
673
2.48
699
3.75
747
6.93
778
4.06
819
5.36
HOTELS AND MOTELS…………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
2079
0.51
2096
0.81
2215
5.66
2342
5.73
2425
3.56
2312
-4.66
2038
-11.84
2033
-0.25
2239
10.13
2345
4.74
2361
0.66
2642
11.91
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE………………
Percentage change………..…………………
26505
3.32
27074
2.15
27970
3.31
28642
2.40
29151
1.78
28220
-3.19
26806
-5.01
26871
0.24
27611
2.75
28444
3.02
28818
1.32
29891
3.72
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS…………………
Percentage change………..…………………
7128
-1.69
7269
1.98
7613
4.72
7698
1.12
7990
3.79
7780
-2.63
7364
-5.34
7521
2.13
7670
1.98
7939
3.51
8081
1.79
8289
2.57
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION……
Percentage change………..…………………
6870
3.10
7146
4.02
7237
1.27
7763
7.27
7919
2.01
7905
-0.17
7731
-2.20
6808
-11.94
6803
-0.08
6182
-9.13
5946
-3.81
5782
-2.77
PER CAPITA ($)……………………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
15427
1.45
15664
1.54
16051
2.47
16169
0.74
16096
-0.46
14981
-6.92
13721
-8.41
13735
0.10
14071
2.45
14306
1.68
14377
0.49
14710
2.32
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
2004
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2003
APPENDIX B
78
Table 11: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of 2009 dollars)
Table 12: Tennessee Taxable Sales (millions of current dollars)
January 2016
Historical Data
2008
2009
2004
2005
2006
2007
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
TOTAL TAXABLE SALES…………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
78749
4.35
82725
5.05
88284
6.72
92705
5.01
95999
3.55
93236
-2.88
86219
-7.53
88395
2.52
93641
5.93
98041
4.70
100943
2.96
105877
4.89
AUTO DEALERS…………………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
9431
6.74
9444
0.14
9429
-0.16
9389
-0.43
9503
1.21
7938
-16.47
6725
-15.28
7672
14.07
8431
9.90
9279
10.05
9836
6.01
10572
7.49
PURCHASES FROM MANUFACTURERS….
Percentage change………..…………………
3933
7.69
4150
5.52
4803
15.73
4679
-2.58
4745
1.41
4497
-5.22
3491
-22.37
3654
4.68
4009
9.72
4047
0.94
4172
3.09
4461
6.93
MISC DURABLE GOODS………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
12892
5.06
14183
10.02
15845
11.72
17208
8.60
17440
1.35
16347
-6.27
13747
-15.90
14494
5.43
15583
7.52
16375
5.08
16810
2.65
17555
4.44
EATING AND DRINKING PLACES……………
Percentage change………..…………………
6915
5.34
7454
7.80
7960
6.79
8464
6.34
8880
4.91
8973
1.06
8840
-1.48
9057
2.45
9508
4.98
10200
7.28
10576
3.69
11194
5.84
FOOD STORES…………………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
7852
-1.64
7937
1.09
8196
3.26
8419
2.72
8731
3.70
8601
-1.49
8821
2.57
8885
0.72
9217
3.74
9690
5.14
10083
4.05
10351
2.66
LIQUOR STORES………………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
433
6.17
458
5.71
495
8.10
548
10.63
594
8.51
636
7.05
657
3.32
685
4.17
728
6.31
793
8.94
836
5.49
894
6.86
HOTELS AND MOTELS…………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
1821
2.50
1881
3.27
2044
8.67
2218
8.55
2355
6.15
2313
-1.78
2038
-11.87
2067
1.40
2333
12.85
2489
6.70
2540
2.04
2883
13.51
OTHER RETAIL AND SERVICE………………
Percentage change………..…………………
23213
5.37
24286
4.62
25806
6.26
27134
5.15
28304
4.31
28237
-0.24
26806
-5.07
27316
1.90
28758
5.28
30184
4.96
31000
2.70
32614
5.20
MISC NONDURABLE GOODS…………………
Percentage change………..…………………
6243
0.27
6521
4.45
7024
7.72
7293
3.82
7758
6.38
7784
0.34
7364
-5.39
7646
3.82
7989
4.49
8425
5.46
8693
3.18
9044
4.04
TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATION……
Percentage change………..…………………
6016
5.15
6410
6.55
6682
4.23
7353
10.05
7689
4.57
7910
2.87
7729
-2.29
6921
-10.45
7085
2.37
6560
-7.42
6396
-2.49
6308
-1.38
PER CAPITA ($)……………………………………
Percentage change………..…………………
13511
3.46
14051
4.00
14809
5.40
15317
3.43
15627
2.02
14990
-4.08
13720
-8.47
13962
1.76
14655
4.97
15181
3.59
15465
1.87
16050
3.78
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
Tennessee Econometric Model
Historical Data
|
|
79
APPENDIX B
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2003
Table 13: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of 2009 dollars)
|
2,333
14.70
2,676
14.70
2,575
-3.77
2,451
-4.82
2,313
-5.63
2,838
22.70
3,033
6.88
11,112
-2.59
10,171
-8.47
9,066
-10.86
8,995
-0.78
9,157
1.80
9,525
4.02
9,297
-2.39
9,461
1.77
MANUFACTURING.............................................................................
39,647 44,681 43,954 45,674
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
3.78
12.70
-1.63
3.91
43,772
-4.16
42,827
-2.16
38,639
-9.78
39,488
2.20
41,425
4.91
44,136
6.54
44,914
1.76
46,110
2.66
DURABLE GOODS........................................................................
22,702 25,103 26,116 27,090
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
10.88
10.58
4.04
3.73
24,479
-9.64
24,898
1.71
20,627
-17.15
20,498
-0.63
23,023
12.32
25,302
9.90
25,593
1.15
26,450
3.35
WOOD PRODUCTS………………………………………….............
622
655
705
730
History
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-11.27
5.31
7.63
3.55
814
809
603
611
663
660
560
Table 14: Tennessee Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by Sector, Seasonally Adjusted (current dollars)
2015:2 2015:3
January 2016
Forecast Data
Annual
11.51
-0.61 -25.46
1.33
8.51
-0.45 -15.15
2015:4 2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
2014 2015 2016
569
1.59
2017
NONMETALLIC MINERAL PRODUCTS……………………………..
1,547
1,675
1,497
1,335
1,332
1,112
875
959
1,068
1,089
1,030
1,033
PRIMARY METALS………….…………………………….................
990
1,134
1,121
1,075
853
848
767
875
993
1,159
1,219
1,228
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
7.37
12.91
-4.09
7.15
-2.56
-13.03
-9.54
6.35
-3.36
2.34
-6.25
1.84
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
6.02
-4.85
15.10
-6.93
-13.30
17.95
-23.60
-5.90
7.85
-8.89
17.90
1.67
TOTAL NONFARM………………………………………………..
47346 47481 47891 48241 48586 48925 49266 49616 49956 50303 50649 50984 45782 47219 48755 50131
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
14.09 1.14 8.27
-21.312.81 9.60
11.37 2.621.973.14 -5.42
0.31
% Chg
Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………………………
10.68
3.50 -10.63
2.96 -10.82
2.89
2.82-0.22
2.82 -16.52
2.87
2.77
2.78
2.67
3.25
2.82
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
3.76
3.73
3.44
4.51
2.62
3.04
2.87
2.85
2.82
2.82
2.81
2.76
2.62
3.14
3.25
2.82
NATURAL
RESOURCES,
MINING & CONSTRUCTION…… 54764
56338 -1.15
56717 57094
57866 58296
59169 14.08
59609 60009
54695 57291
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
-19.905603614.55
-4.1057489
-20.65
-0.59 58734
-9.55
13.49 51513
16.72
5.18 58952
0.73
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 26.46
9.62
2.17
2.72
2.69
2.79
2.65
3.01
3.04
2.99
3.01
2.71
4.71
6.18
4.75
2.90
FABRICATED
PRODUCTS…………………..3,965
4,601 2.59
4,483
3,5272.92 3,751
3,625 4.71
3,7106.18 3,478
3,542
% Chg Same QtrMETAL
Last Yr………………………………..
6.18
8.254,477
8.61 4,294
9.83
4.26
2.71 3,899
2.78
2.87
3.01
2.94
4.75
2.90
MANUFACTURING……………………………………………
57619 58423 59116 59605 60062 60584 61081 61537 61954 62435 62929 63334 56302 57400 60333 62214
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 25.45
4.83 3,797
3.35
3.10
3.32 3,614
3.02
2.74
3.20
2.60
5.11
3.12
MACHINERY…………………………………………………………
3,467 5.703,299
3,534 3.52
3,064
2,7613.15 2,598
2,802 2.85
2,5531.95 3,010
3,060
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.58
4.07
3.24
9.48
4.24
3.70
3.32
3.24
3.15
3.06
3.03
2.92
2.85
1.95
5.11
3.12
DURABLE GOODS……………………………………......
55869 56305 56988 57331 57693 58176 58650 59072 59451 59941 60460 60849 55092 55627 57962 59731
COMPUTER
ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS……………
2252 3.16 2868
2302 3.392752
40723.34 1210
1176 3.4512780.97 1,385
1,455
% Chg Prev Qtr&SAAR………..……………………………
20.29
4.94 2561
2.43
2.55
3.30 3897
2.91
2.59
3.51
2.60
4.20
3.05
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
95.15 2.5027.351.28 -10.70
19.55
4.493.03-70.28
-2.81 3.458.670.97 8.37
5.07
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
1.39
7.47 -10.11
3.26
3.32
2.92 41.61
3.04
3.05
3.09
3.01
4.20
3.05
NONDURABLE
GOODS……………………………..
60716 62180 62910 63681 64330 64949 65517 66055 66566 67057 67531 67993 58379 60542 64619 66803
ELECTRICAL
EQUIPMENT, APPLIANCES
Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 34.67 10.00
4.78
4.99
4.14
3.54
3.33
3.13
2.86
2.76
6.73
3.38
&%COMPONENTS………….…………………
2,590
2,583
2,828
3,090 3.91
2,487
3,088
2,9092.98 2,536
2,696 2.03
3,4843.71 3,070
3,139
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
4.70
6.82
6.65 12.98
5.95
4.45
4.14
3.73
3.48
3.24
3.07
2.93
2.03
3.71
6.73
3.38
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
8.87
-0.27
9.49
9.26
-19.51
24.17
-5.80
-12.82
6.31
29.23
-11.88
2.24
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
19.66
21.59
16.70
20.85
-24.94
-17.21
-55.23
143.37
42.34
21.64
8.40
5.89
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-6.93
33.08
5.94 -14.90
-6.71
-15.98
-32.96
17.02
9.09
-15.74
-18.90
2.18
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES………….
42794 42887 43218 43594 43970 44311 44670 45047 45414 45778 46130 46497 42242 42707 44136 45592
MOTOR
VEHICLES,
BODIES & TRAILERS
% Chg Prev
Qtr SAAR………..……………………………
8.51
0.87
3.12
3.53
3.50
3.13
3.28
3.42
3.30
3.24
3.11
3.22
2.75
1.10
3.35
3.30
&%PARTS…………………………………
4,127 2.025,018
7,077 3.32
5,312
1,9693.31 4,792
6,821 2.75
8,2971.10 8,994
9,524
Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.84
-0.79 5,856
3.97
2.75
3.36 4,398
3.33
3.28
3.27
3.22
3.35
3.30
WHOLESALE TRADE…………………………………….
65438 65107 65624 66259 66802 67371 67904 68436 68952 69463 69949 70508 64537 64934 67084 69200
% Chg Prev
Qtr SAAR………..……………………………
12.31671-2.00 893
3.21
3.93
3.32
3.20
3.17
2.83
3.23
3.31
3.15
OTHER
TRANSPORTATION
EQUIPMENT………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
946
805 3.45 751
631 3.054233.00 495
540 3.97 4550.61 369
377
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.85
0.78
-0.50
4.24
2.09
3.48
3.47
3.28
3.22
3.10
3.01
3.03
3.97
0.61
3.31
3.15
RETAIL TRADE…………………………………………….
29138 29534 29748 29973 30226 30443 30692 30946 31202 31466 31700 31933 28895 29193 30333 31329
FURNITURE……………………………………………………………..
1,028 5.56 990
905
849 2.90 826
651 3.354713.43 423
404 2.80 4261.03 456
463
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 11.59
2.93
3.05
3.42
3.32
3.35
3.01
2.97
3.91
3.28
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
-7.80 3.31 -3.70
-6.19 3.07-2.71
-27.653.36-10.19
-4.49 2.805.451.03 7.04
1.63
% Chg
Same Qtr Last
Yr………………………………..
2.77
-1.54 -8.59
5.72
3.73
3.17 -21.19
3.25
3.23
3.28
3.19
3.91
3.28
TRANSPORTATION
& UTILITIES……………………………
53522
53448 1,606
53897 54358
55162 55636
56519 2,248
56977 57407
53300 2,022
54539 56304
MISCELLANEOUS
DURABLE GOODS………………
1,443530481,511
1,69254738
1,805
1,951 56083
2,250
2,235 52602
2,191
2,060
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 2.58 -3.49
3.05
3.40
3.47
3.14
3.48
3.25
3.28
3.05
2.32
3.24
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
3.07
4.71
6.29
5.35 2.826.68
8.09
15.333.15 -0.09
-0.58 1.71
-1.971.33 -7.71
1.86
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.70
1.23
-0.46
1.34
1.56
3.18
3.21
3.23
3.17
3.25
3.29
3.18
1.71
1.33
2.32
3.24
NONDURABLE GOODS………………………………….
16,94563946
19,578
18,58465925
19,293
18,012
18,402 60999
18,834
19,660
INFORMATION……………………………………………………
62396
6453617,838
65034 65505
66370 17,929
66806 67331
6786618,990
68396 68793
6323919,321
65708 67600
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
-4.4310.3115.54
4.18 2.593.82
0.463.22 5.43
-3.10 4.852.353.67 2.59
1.75
% Chg
Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………………………
2.06
3.74 -8.89
3.12
2.93
2.73 -7.07
2.65
3.18
3.16
2.34
3.90
2.88
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
0.94
3.55
10.10
4.76
4.98
3.09
2.84
2.72
2.79
2.94
3.05
2.97
4.85
3.67
3.90
2.88
FOOD AND BEVERAGE & TOBACCO.........................
5,388
6,014
5,938
6,585
7,369
6,779
6,912
7,120
6,761
6,769
6,501
6,652
FINANCIAL
ACTIVITIES………………………………….....
70683
71949 -1.26
72635 73243
74348 74950
76033 76539
70721 73508
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
-3.427117711.62
10.9073807
11.91
-8.01 75522
1.96
3.01 77045
-5.04 689790.12
-3.96 75761
2.32
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 9.65
2.82
4.41
3.87
3.39
3.12
2.96
3.28
3.09
2.73
2.69
2.67
4.12
2.52
3.94
3.06
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
3.31
3.87
2.68
5.16
3.62
3.70
3.33
3.19
3.11
3.01
2.95
2.79
4.12
2.52
3.94
3.06
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
Historical Data
CONSTRUCTION................................................................................
11,484 11,434 11,319 11,407
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-1.50
-0.44
-1.01
0.78
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
NATURAL RESOURCES & MINING......................................................................................................
2,409
2,449
2,553
2,697
2,034
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
9.00
1.66
4.25
5.64 -24.58
APPENDIX B
80
January 2016
Historical Data
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT..........................................................................
240,376 250,288 252,717 258,027 255,313 257,567 247,316 251,094 258,257 266,947 268,707 274,962
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
2.34
4.12
0.97
2.10
-1.05
0.88
-3.98
1.53
2.85
3.36
0.66
2.33
Table 13: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of 2009 dollars)
27,151
5.83
4,398
25,606
-5.69
1,969
26,821
4.74
4,792
27,840
3.80
6,821
30,019
7.83
8,297
30,649
2.10
8,994
31,896
4.07
9,524
change………………………………………………………………………..
-6.93 11,341
33.08 11,330
5.94 11,608
-14.90
LEISUREPercentage
& HOSPITALITY…………………………………….....................
11,047
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
3.80
2.66
-0.10
2.45
FURNITURE……………………………………………………………..
1,028
990
905
849
-6.71
11,606
-0.02
826
-15.98
11,020
-5.05
651
-32.96
10,285
-6.67
471
17.02
10,541
2.49
423
9.09
10,936
3.75
404
-15.74
11,292
3.26
426
-18.90
11,260
-0.28
456
2.18
11,602
3.04
463
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
3.07 31,023
4.71 32,163
6.29 32,082
5.35
GOVERNMENT………………………………………………..............................
30,991
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
-3.17 19,578
0.10 17,838
3.67 18,584
-0.25
NONDURABLE
GOODS………………………………….
16,945
6.68
30,235
-5.76
19,293
8.09
32,123
6.24
17,929
15.33
32,417
0.92
18,012
-0.09
30,570
-5.70
18,990
-0.58
31,473
2.95
18,402
-1.97
32,517
3.32
18,834
-7.71
32,264
-0.78
19,321
1.86
32,279
0.05
19,660
change………………………………………………………………………..
-3.42 21,778
11.62 23,656
-1.26 23,586
10.90
STATEPercentage
& LOCAL…………………………………………........................
21,412
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-3.98
1.71
8.62
-0.30
11.91
21,778
-7.67
-8.01
24,264
11.42
1.96
24,627
1.50
3.01
22,832
-7.29
-5.04
23,826
4.35
0.12
24,944
4.69
-3.96
24,388
-2.23
2.32
24,556
0.69
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
19.66 22,963
21.59 22,995
16.70 23,497
20.85 23,665
-24.94 25,297
-17.21 26,373
-55.23 26,477
143.37 27,224
42.34 27,967
21.64
EDUCATION
& HEALTH
SERVICES………………………...........................
21,501
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
3.50
6.80
0.14
2.18
0.71
6.90
4.25
0.39
2.82
2.73
OTHER
TRANSPORTATION
EQUIPMENT………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
671
893
946
805
751
631
423
495
540
455
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-7.80
-3.70
-8.59
-6.19
OTHER SERVICES…………………………………………............................
7,366
7,526
7,496
7,544
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
-2.96
2.17
-0.40
0.64
MISCELLANEOUS DURABLE GOODS………………1,443
1,511
1,606
1,692
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-4.43
15.54
-8.89
4.18
FEDERAL.............................................……………………………………..
9,579
9,245
8,507
8,496
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
-1.32
-3.49
-7.98
-0.13
FOOD
AND BEVERAGE
& TOBACCO.........................
5,388
6,014
5,938
6,585
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
-2.71
7,201
-4.55
1,805
3.82
8,457
-0.46
7,369
-21.19
6,860
-4.74
1,951
-7.07
7,859
-7.07
6,779
-27.65
6,524
-4.90
2,250
0.46
7,790
-0.88
6,912
-10.19
6,479
-0.69
2,248
5.43
7,738
-0.67
7,120
-4.49
6,529
0.77
2,235
-3.10
7,647
-1.18
6,761
5.45
6,771
3.71
2,191
2.35
7,573
-0.97
6,769
8.40
28,398
1.54
369
7.04
6,608
-2.41
2,022
2.59
7,876
4.00
6,501
5.89
29,134
2.59
377
1.63
6,543
-0.99
2,060
1.75
7,722
-1.95
6,652
Tennessee Econometric Model
APPENDIX B
81
25,656
1.11
5,312
|
|
PROFESSIONAL
& BUSINESS
SERVICES………………………….................
24,214 25,269 25,285 25,374
MOTOR VEHICLES,
BODIES
& TRAILERS
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
3.96
4.36
0.06
0.35
& PARTS…………………………………
4,127
5,018
5,856
7,077
Historical Data
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
January 2016
Historical Data
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
MILLS
&
GROSSTEXTILE
DOMESTIC
PRODUCT..........................................................................
240,376 250,288 252,717 258,027 255,313 257,567 247,316 251,094 258,257 266,947 268,707 274,962
TEXTILE
PRODUCT
MILLS……………………………..675
725
618
668
582
615
421
369
295
332
455
448
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
2.34
4.12
0.97
2.10
-1.05
0.88
-3.98
1.53
2.85
3.36
0.66
2.33
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-6.38
7.41 -14.76
8.09 -12.87
5.67 -31.54 -12.35 -20.05
12.54
37.05
-1.46
NATURAL RESOURCES & MINING......................................................................................................
2,409
2,449
2,553
2,697
2,034
2,333
2,676
2,575
2,451
2,313
2,838
3,033
PAPER………………………………………………………………………..
2,285
2,402
2,462
2,746
2,348
2,385
2,590
2,709
2,452
2,610
2,683
2,731
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
9.00
1.66
4.25
5.64 -24.58
14.70
14.70
-3.77
-4.82
-5.63
22.70
6.88
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
1.78
5.12
2.50
11.54 -14.49
1.58
8.60
4.59
-9.49
6.44
2.80
1.79
CONSTRUCTION................................................................................
11,484 11,434 11,319 11,407 11,112 10,171
9,066
8,995
9,157
9,525
9,297
9,461
PRINTING
& RELATED
SUPPORT………………………………………………………………………..
1,211
1,233
1,256
1,304
1,276
1,237
1,093
1,064
1,041
995
1,121
1,140
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
-1.50
-0.44
-1.01
0.78
-2.59
-8.47 -10.86
-0.78
1.80
4.02
-2.39
1.77
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
6.88
1.82
1.87
3.82
-2.15
-3.06 -11.64
-2.65
-2.16
-4.42
12.66
1.72
MANUFACTURING.............................................................................
39,647 44,681 43,954 45,674 43,772 42,827 38,639 39,488 41,425 44,136 44,914 46,110
CHEMICALS………………………………………………………………………..
3,535
5,506
4,218
4,604
4,781
4,337
4,557
5,198
5,622
5,740
5,852
5,998
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
3.78
12.70
-1.63
3.91
-4.16
-2.16
-9.78
2.20
4.91
6.54
1.76
2.66
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-17.64
55.76 -23.39
9.15
3.84
-9.29
5.07
14.07
8.16
2.10
1.95
2.49
DURABLE GOODS........................................................................
22,702 25,103 26,116 27,090 24,479 24,898 20,627 20,498 23,023 25,302 25,593 26,450
PLASTICS
& RUBBER………………………………………………………………………..
2,451
2,509
2,280
1,932
2,121
1,919
1,757
1,894
1,749
1,782
1,957
1,948
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
10.88
10.58
4.04
3.73
-9.64
1.71 -17.15
-0.63
12.32
9.90
1.15
3.35
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
1.49
2.37
-9.13 -15.26
9.78
-9.52
-8.44
7.80
-7.66
1.89
9.82
-0.47
WOOD PRODUCTS………………………………………….............
622
655
705
730
814
809
603
611
663
660
560
569
MISCELLANEOUS
NONDURABLE GOODS………………
1,020
841
768
505
586
415 -25.46
470
395
275
397 -15.15
432
430
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-11.27
5.31
7.63
3.55
11.51
-0.61
1.33
8.51
-0.45
1.59
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
15.38 -17.55
-8.68 -34.24
16.04 -29.18
13.25 -15.96 -30.38
44.36
8.82
-0.37
NONMETALLIC MINERAL PRODUCTS……………………………..
1,547
1,675
1,497
1,335
1,332
1,112
875
959
1,068
1,089
1,030
1,033
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION,
UTILITIES………….....................……..................……..................
48,398
50,717
52,831
54,084
53,733
52,319
47,471
49,142
49,883
50,770
50,708
51,765
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
14.09
8.27 -10.63 -10.82
-0.22 -16.52 -21.31
9.60
11.37
1.97
-5.42
0.31
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
6.09
4.79
4.17
2.37
-0.65
-2.63
-9.27
3.52
1.51
1.78
-0.12
3.20
PRIMARY METALS………….…………………………….................
990
1,134
1,121
1,075
853
848
767
875
993
1,159
1,219
1,228
WHOLESALE
TRADE……………………………………......................
16,648
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
-19.90 17,765
14.55 18,420
-1.15 19,025
-4.10 19,537
-20.65 19,414
-0.59 16,467
-9.55 16,740
14.08 16,876
13.49 17,612
16.72 17,935
5.18 18,426
0.73
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
7.32
6.71
3.69
3.28
2.69
-0.63 -15.18
1.66
0.81
4.36
1.83
2.74
FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS…………………..3,965
4,477
4,294
4,601
4,483
3,899
3,527
3,751
3,625
3,710
3,478
3,542
RETAIL
TRADE…………………………………………….........................
18,926
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
7.37 19,307
12.91 20,139
-4.09 20,156
7.15 19,928
-2.56 18,871
-13.03 18,229
-9.54 18,805
6.35 18,909
-3.36 19,184
2.34 18,864
-6.25 19,202
1.84
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
7.40
2.01
4.31
0.08
-1.13
-5.30
-3.40
3.16
0.55
1.45
-1.67
1.79
MACHINERY…………………………………………………………
3,467
3,299
3,797
3,534
3,064
3,614
2,761
2,598
2,802
2,553
3,010
3,060
TRANSPORTATION
& UTILITIES…………………………………………….
12,824
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
6.02 13,645
-4.85 14,272
15.10 14,903
-6.93 14,268
-13.30 14,034
17.95 12,775
-23.60 13,597
-5.90 14,098
7.85 13,974
-8.89 13,909
17.90 14,137
1.67
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
2.72
6.40
4.60
4.42
-4.26
-1.64
-8.97
6.43
3.68
-0.88
-0.47
1.64
COMPUTER & ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS……………
2252
2868
2561
2302
2752
3897
4072
1210
1176
1278
1,385
1,455
INFORMATION……………………………………………………....................................
6,339
6,897
7,424 -10.11
8,033
8,532
8,808
8,330
8,516
8,359
8,395
8,583
8,828
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
95.15
27.35 -10.70
19.55
41.61
4.49 -70.28
-2.81
8.67
8.37
5.07
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
4.53
8.80
7.64
8.20
6.21
3.23
-5.43
2.23
-1.84
0.43
2.24
2.86
ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT, APPLIANCES
FINANCIAL
ACTIVITIES…………………………………............................
36,980
& COMPONENTS………….…………………
2,590 35,988
2,583 35,367
2,828 36,027
3,090 37,767
2,487 38,658
3,088 39,929
2,909 41,490
2,536 42,980
2,696 43,242
3,484 43,188
3,070 44,311
3,139
Percentage
0.42
-2.68
-1.73
1.87
4.83
2.36
3.29 -12.82
3.91
3.59
0.61 -11.88
-0.12
2.60
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
change………………………………………………………………………..
8.87
-0.27
9.49
9.26 -19.51
24.17
-5.80
6.31
29.23
2.24
January 2016
|
NATURAL RESOURCES & MINING......................................................................................................
1,796
2,098
2,150
2,369
2,097
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
17.54
16.82
2.48
10.19 -11.48
2,590
23.51
2,676
3.32
2,894
8.15
3,297
13.93
3,135
-4.91
3,811
21.56
3,855
1.17
10,956
3.64
10,030
-8.45
9,066
-9.61
8,832
-2.58
9,123
3.29
9,767
7.06
9,867
1.02
10,454
5.95
MANUFACTURING.............................................................................
36,987 41,192 41,088 42,256
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
5.11
11.37
-0.25
2.84
40,282
-4.67
40,068
-0.53
38,639
-3.57
38,898
0.67
40,805
4.90
45,296
11.01
46,913
3.57
48,671
3.75
DURABLE
GOODS........................................................................
22,764
25,800
26,011
23,410
Table
14: Tennessee
Average Annual Wage and Salary Rate by
Sector,25,106
Seasonally
Adjusted
(current
dollars) 23,536
20,627
-12.36
19,878
-3.63
21,865
10.00
24,753
13.21
25,418
26,555
January 2016
2.69
4.48
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
12.43
10.29
2.76
0.82
History
-10.00
0.54
Forecast Data
Annual
WOOD PRODUCTS………………………………………….............
893 2016:1
942 2016:2907
887 2017:1
8342017:2 603
631 2018:1
626 2014 664
654
2015:2 735
2015:3 2015:4
2016:3 2016:4
2017:3 2017:4
2015 2016
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-6.37
21.50
5.49
-3.72
-2.21
-5.98 -27.70
4.64
-0.79
6.07
-1.51
674
2017
3.11
TOTAL NONFARM………………………………………………..
47346 47481 47891 48241 48586 48925 49266 49616 49956 50303 50649 50984 45782 47219 48755 50131
NONMETALLIC
MINERAL PRODUCTS……………………………..
1,316 2.821,307
999 2.62
1,0603.14 1,055
1,080
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………………………
10.681,283
1.14 1,401
3.50 1,333
2.96
2.89
2.82 1,039
2.87
2.77 8752.81 929
2.78
2.67
3.25
2.82
% Chg
Same Qtr change………………………………………………………………………..
Last Yr………………………………..
3.7611.66
3.73 9.20
3.44
4.51
2.62
2.87 -20.50
2.85
2.82
2.81
2.76
3.25
2.82
Percentage
-4.85
-1.28 3.04 -0.68
-15.782.82 6.17
7.53 2.626.113.14 -0.47
2.39
NATURAL
RESOURCES,
MINING & CONSTRUCTION…… 54764 892
56036 1,305
56338 56717
574891,401
57866 58296
59169 1,105
59609 60009
54695 1,376
57291 58952
PRIMARY
METALS………….…………………………….................
1,433 57094
1,672
1,410 58734 767
1,437 51513
1,484
1,357
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 26.46
9.62
2.17
2.72
2.69
2.79
2.65
3.01
3.04
2.99
3.01
2.71
4.71
6.18
4.75
2.90
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-21.13
46.30
9.81
16.68 -16.21
0.64 -45.60
44.07
30.05
3.27
-7.28
-1.35
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
6.18
8.25
8.61
9.83
4.26
2.59
2.71
2.78
2.87
2.92
3.01
2.94
4.71
6.18
4.75
2.90
FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS…………………………
3,474 60062
3,706
3,356 61954
3,527
3,361 56302
3,623
3,652
MANUFACTURING……………………………………………
576193,016
58423 3,462
59116 59605
605843,696
61081 61537
62435 3,491
62929 63334
57400 3,503
60333 62214
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
0.35 3.106.68 3.52 -0.27
-9.20
-3.72 2.857.801.95 -3.31
4.26
% Chg
Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………………………
25.45 5.71
5.70 14.79
4.83
3.35
3.32
3.02
2.745.103.15 -1.02
3.20
2.60
5.11
3.12
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.58
4.07
3.24
9.48
4.24
3.70
3.32
3.24
3.15
3.06
3.03
2.92
2.85
1.95
5.11
3.12
MACHINERY………………………………………….………………………
3,107
2,857
3,359
3,116
2,746
3,234
2,761
2,483
2,651
2,530
3,121
3,225
DURABLE
GOODS……………………………………......
55869 5.29
56305 -8.05
56988 57331
58176-11.87
58650 59072
59941 -10.07
60460 60849
55627 23.36
57962 59731
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
17.57 57693
-7.23
17.77 59451
-14.63
6.77 55092
-4.56
3.32
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 20.29
3.16
4.94
2.43
2.55
3.39
3.30
2.91
2.59
3.34
3.51
2.60
3.45
0.97
4.20
3.05
% Chg Same Qtr
Last Yr………………………………..
1.393,655
2.50 4,245
1.28 3,515
7.47
3.26
2.92 4,010
3.04
3.05
3.09
3.01
4.20
3.05
COMPUTER
& ELECTRONIC
PRODUCTS……………
2,866 3.323,086
4,0723.03 1,178
1,105 3.45
1,1870.97 1,297
1,325
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
-17.20 64330
-18.46
29.94 665661.55
-6.20 583797.42
9.27 66803
2.14
NONDURABLE
GOODS……………………………..
6071675.13
62180 16.14
62910 63681
64949 7.68
65517 66055
67057 -71.07
67531 67993
60542 64619
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 34.67 10.00
4.78
4.99
4.14
3.91
3.54
3.33
3.13
2.98
2.86
2.76
2.03
3.71
6.73
3.38
ELECTRICAL
EQUIPMENT, APPLIANCES
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
4.70
6.82
6.65 12.98
5.95
4.45
4.14
3.73
3.48
3.24
3.07
2.93
2.03
3.71
6.73
3.38
& COMPONENTS........................................................ 2,169
2,118
2,358
2,636
2,211
2,829
2,909
2,470
2,593
3,558
3,203
3,343
TRADE, Percentage
TRANSPORTATION,
UTILITIES………….
42794 5.70
42887 -2.35
43218 43594
44311-16.12
44670 45047
45778 -15.09
46130 46497
42707 44136
change………………………………………………………………………..
11.33 43970
11.79
27.95 454142.83
4.98 42242
37.22
-9.98 45592
4.36
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 8.51
0.87
3.12
3.53
3.50
3.13
3.28
3.42
3.30
3.24
3.11
3.22
2.75
1.10
3.35
3.30
MOTOR
VEHICLES,
BODIES & TRAILERS
% Chg Same
Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.84
2.02
-0.79
3.97
2.75
3.32
3.36
3.33
3.28
3.31
3.27
3.22
2.75
1.10
3.35
3.30
& PARTS....................................................................................................................................
6,188 66802
6,673
3,775 68952
1,969
5,945 64537
7,541
8,850
WHOLESALE
TRADE…………………………………….
654384,983
65107 5,734
65624 66259
673714,877
67904 68436
69463 4,463
69949 70508
64934 8,264
67084 69200
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
7.92 3.327.84 3.45-26.91
-47.843.00126.66
33.21 3.97
26.850.61 9.59
7.09
% Chg
Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………………………
12.3116.86
-2.00 15.07
3.21
3.93
3.20 -22.60
3.17
3.05
2.83
3.23
3.31
3.15
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.85
0.78
-0.50
4.24
2.09
3.48
3.47
3.28
3.22
3.10
3.01
3.03
3.97
0.61
3.31
3.15
OTHER TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
581
790
862
754
709
596
423
494
545
470
392
410
RETAIL
TRADE…………………………………………….
29138-3.17
29534 35.97
29748 29973
30443 -5.97
30692 30946
31466 16.78
31700 31933
29193 -16.60
30333 31329
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
9.11 30226
-12.53
-15.94 31202
-29.03
10.32 28895
-13.76
4.56
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..…………………………… 11.59
5.56
2.93
3.05
3.42
2.90
3.32
3.35
3.35
3.43
3.01
2.97
2.80
1.03
3.91
3.28
FURNITURE……………………………………………………………………
818
773 3.73729 3.07 734
578 3.23 4713.36 405
386 2.80 4231.03 453
468
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.77 895
3.31
-1.54
5.72
3.17
3.25
3.28
3.19
3.91
3.28
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-8.30
-8.60
-5.50
-5.69
0.69
-21.25
-18.51
-14.01
-4.69
9.59
7.09
3.23
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
3.50
2.42
5.39
4.67
7.33
6.78
20.00
-0.93
-0.54
-0.18
-5.11
3.44
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES…………………………… 53522 53048 53448 53897 54358 54738 55162 55636 56083 56519 56977 57407 52602 53300 54539 56304
% Chg Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………………………
-3.49 1,483
3.05 1,563
3.40
3.47
3.14 1,875
3.48
3.25
3.28
3.05
2.32
3.24
MISCELLANEOUS
DURABLE GOODS………………2.581,448
1,636 2.821,756
2,2503.15 2,229
2,217 1.71
2,2131.33 2,100
2,172
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
2.70
1.23
-0.46
1.34
1.56
3.18
3.21
3.23
3.17
3.25
3.29
3.18
1.71
1.33
2.32
3.24
INFORMATION…………………………………………………… 62396 63946 64536 65034 65505 65925 66370 66806 67331 67866 68396 68793 60999 63239 65708 67600
NONDURABLE
GOODS…………………………...………………….
14,223
16,245 2.59
16,872
18,0123.2219,020
20,5433.6721,495
% Chg Prev Qtr
SAAR………..…………………………… 2.06
10.31 16,086
3.74 15,288
3.12
2.93
2.73 16,532
2.65
3.18
3.16 18,940
2.34
4.85
3.90 22,116
2.88
Percentage
-4.96
6.26 3.09 3.86
-2.02
-0.42 4.858.463.67 4.63
2.89
% Chg
Same Qtr change………………………………………………………………………..
Last Yr………………………………..
0.94-4.82
3.55 13.10
10.10
4.76
4.98
2.84
2.72
2.798.952.94 5.60
3.05
2.97
3.90
2.88
FINANCIAL
ACTIVITIES………………………………….....
706834,642
71177 5,010
71949 72635
738076,060
74348 74950
76033 7,010
76539 77045
70721 6,932
73508 75761
FOOD AND
BEVERAGE & TOBACCO.........................
5,036 73243
5,442
6,052 75522
6,912
6,503 68979
7,019
7,263
% Chg
Prev Qtr SAAR………..……………………………
9.65-4.80
2.82 7.93
4.41
3.87
2.96
3.28
3.09
2.69
2.67
3.94
3.06
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
0.52 3.398.06 3.1211.36
-0.13
14.212.73 1.42
-7.23 4.127.932.52 -1.24
4.78
% Chg Same Qtr Last Yr………………………………..
3.31
3.87
2.68
5.16
3.62
3.70
3.33
3.19
3.11
3.01
2.95
2.79
4.12
2.52
3.94
3.06
(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE)
Historical Data
CONSTRUCTION................................................................................
8,132
8,719
9,581 10,571
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
3.11
7.22
9.89
10.33
|
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
Historical Data
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT..........................................................................
206,562 220,573 228,724 239,395 243,368 250,402 247,316 253,252 264,022 279,654 286,908 298,623
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
4.44
6.78
3.70
4.67
1.66
2.89
-1.23
2.40
4.25
5.92
2.59
4.08
APPENDIX B
82
Table 14: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of current dollars)
Table 14: Tennessee Gross Domestic Product by Sector (millions of current dollars)
January 2016
Historical Data
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
250,402
572 247,316
421 253,252
369 264,022
332 279,654
358 286,908
486 298,623
475
2.89 -26.40
-1.23 -12.35
2.40 -10.03
4.25
5.92
2.59
4.08
3.44
7.83
35.75
-2.32
2,590
2,676
2,894
3,297
3,135
3,811
3,855
239
212
235
203
206
316
306
23.51
3.32
8.15
13.93
-4.91
21.56
1.17
3.46 -11.30
10.85 -13.62
1.48
53.40
-3.06
10,030
9,066
8,832
9,123
9,767
9,867 10,454
2,171
2,590
2,806
2,537
2,693
2,925
3,040
-8.45
-9.61
-2.58
3.29
7.06
1.02
5.95
6.42
19.30
8.34
-9.59
6.15
8.61
3.94
40,068 38,639 38,898 40,805 45,296 46,913 48,671
1,222
1,093
1,039
973
922
1,040
1,068
-0.53
-3.57
0.67
4.90
11.01
3.57
3.75
-6.50 -10.56
-4.94
-6.35
-5.24
12.80
2.67
23,536 20,627 19,878 21,865 24,753 25,418 26,555
548
470
521
551
848
785
820
0.54 -12.36
-3.63
10.00
13.21
2.69
4.48
-33.25 -14.23
10.85
5.76
53.90
-7.43
4.41
834
603
631
626
664
654
674
3,983
4,557
5,205
6,089
6,624
6,927
7,025
-5.98 -27.70
4.64
-0.79
6.07
-1.51
3.11
0.53
14.41
14.22
16.98
8.79
4.57
1.41
1,039
875
929
999
1,060
1,055
1,080
1,745
1,757
1,835
1,752
1,873
2,084
2,119
-20.50 -15.78
6.17
7.53
6.11
-0.47
2.39
-8.06
0.69
4.44
-4.52
6.91
11.27
1.69
1,410
767
1,105
1,437
1,484
1,376
1,357
50,336 47,471 49,691 51,450 53,880 54,604 56,848
0.64 -45.60
44.07
30.05
3.27
-7.28
-1.35
-0.16
-5.69
4.68
3.54
4.72
1.34
4.11
3,356
3,527
3,491
3,361
3,623
3,503
3,652
18,063 16,467 17,137 17,679 19,024 19,551 20,575
-9.20
5.10
-1.02
-3.72
7.80
-3.31
4.26
2.51
-8.84
4.07
3.16
7.61
2.77
5.24
3,234
2,761
2,483
2,651
2,530
3,121
3,225
18,647 18,229 18,950 19,436 20,249 20,108 20,732
17.77 -14.63 -10.07
6.77
-4.56
23.36
3.32
-3.59
-2.24
3.96
2.56
4.18
-0.70
3.10
4,010
4,072
1,178
1,105
1,187
1,297
1,325
13,626 12,775 13,604 14,335 14,607 14,945 15,541
29.94
1.55 -71.07
-6.20
7.42
9.27
2.14
1.27
-6.25
6.49
5.37
1.90
2.31
3.99
83
STATE & LOCAL…………………………………………........................
16,890 18,060 20,381 21,192
2003
2004
2005
2006
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-0.46
6.93
12.85
3.98
Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee
20,411
2007
-3.69
23,562
2008
15.44
24,627
2009
4.52
23,442
2010
-4.81
24,914
2011
6.28
26,564
2012
6.62
26,628
2013
0.24
27,394
2014
2.88
Tennessee Econometric Model
APPENDIX B
8,817
3,343
2.90
4.36
48,619
4.81
8,850
7.09
33,779
5.80
410
4.56
31,611
4.21
468
3.23
12,599
5.21
2,172
3.44
7,439
1.54
22,116
2.89
35,930
2.10
7,263
4.78
8,537
-0.32
|
8,568
3,203
3.02
-9.98
46,390
2.46
8,264
9.59
31,928
3.57
392
-16.60
30,334
2.69
453
7.09
11,975
2.32
2,100
-5.11
7,326
0.34
21,495
4.63
35,192
1.67
6,932
-1.24
8,564
6.38
|
8,317
3,558
0.53
37.22
45,276
3.33
7,541
26.85
30,826
9.25
470
-13.76
29,538
4.65
423
9.59
11,703
7.16
2,213
-0.18
7,301
6.49
20,543
8.46
34,615
4.77
7,019
7.93
8,051
-0.90
Historical Data
2016 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC REPORT
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
GROSS
DOMESTIC
PRODUCT..........................................................................
206,562
TEXTILE
MILLS
& TEXTILE PRODUCT MILLS..................................................................
609 220,573
645 228,724
576 239,395
636 243,368
553
Percentagechange………………………………………………………………………..
change………………………………………………………………………..
4.44
6.78 -10.70
3.70
4.67 -13.05
1.66
Percentage
-13.25
5.91
10.42
NATURAL RESOURCES & MINING......................................................................................................
1,796
2,098
2,150
2,369
2,097
APPAREL & LEATHER PRODUCTS………………………………………………………………………..
415
371
311
246
231
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
17.54
16.82
2.48
10.19 -11.48
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-18.79 -10.60 -16.17 -20.90
-6.10
CONSTRUCTION................................................................................
8,132
8,719
9,581 10,571 10,956
PAPER………………………………………………………………………….....
1,857
1,894
1,971
2,334
2,040
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
3.11
7.22
9.89
10.33
3.64
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-2.26
1.99
4.07
18.42 -12.60
MANUFACTURING.............................................................................
36,987 41,192 41,088 42,256 40,282
PRINTING & RELATED SUPPORT………………………………………………………………………..
1,192
1,203
1,258
1,350
1,307
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
5.11
11.37
-0.25
2.84
-4.67
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
6.33
0.92
4.57
7.31
-3.19
DURABLE GOODS........................................................................
22,764 25,106 25,800 26,011 23,410
CHEMICALS………………………………………………………………………..
727
690
860
651
821
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
12.43
10.29
2.76
0.82 -10.00
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
38.48
-5.09
24.64 -24.30
26.11
WOOD PRODUCTS………………………………………….............
735
893
942
907
887
PLASTICS & RUBBER………………………………………………………………………..
2,694
4,216
3,367
3,806
3,962
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-6.37
21.50
5.49
-3.72
-2.21
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-16.00
56.50 -20.14
13.04
4.10
NONMETALLIC MINERAL PRODUCTS……………………………..
1,283
1,401
1,333
1,316
1,307
MISCELLANEOUS NONDURABLE GOODS………………
2,087
2,057
1,909
1,780
1,898
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
11.66
9.20
-4.85
-1.28
-0.68
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-0.67
-1.44
-7.19
-6.76
6.63
PRIMARY METALS………….…………………………….................
892
1,305
1,433
1,672
1,401
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION, UTILITIES………….....................……..................……..................
41,117 44,015 47,012 49,584 50,417
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-21.13
46.30
9.81
16.68 -16.21
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
6.09
7.05
6.81
5.47
1.68
FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS…………………………
3,016
3,462
3,474
3,706
3,696
WHOLESALE TRADE……………………………………......................
13,433 14,777 15,722 16,806 17,620
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
5.71
14.79
0.35
6.68
-0.27
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
6.21
10.01
6.40
6.89
4.84
MACHINERY………………………………………….………………………
3,107
2,857
3,359
3,116
2,746
RETAIL TRADE…………………………………………….........................
16,634 17,306 18,478 19,034 19,342
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
5.29
-8.05
17.57
-7.23 -11.87
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
6.76
4.04
6.77
3.01
1.62
COMPUTER & ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS…………… 3,655
4,245
3,515
2,866
3,086
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES…………………………………………….
11,050 11,932 12,812 13,744 13,455
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
75.13
16.14 -17.20 -18.46
7.68
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
4.95
7.98
7.38
7.27
-2.10
ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT, APPLIANCES
INFORMATION……………………………………………………....................................
6,812
7,357
7,722
8,220
8,614
8,801
8,330
8,464
8,273
& COMPONENTS........................................................ 2,169
2,118
2,358
2,636
2,211
2,829
2,909
2,470
2,593
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
4.35
8.00
4.96
6.45
4.79
2.17
-5.35
1.61
-2.26
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
5.70
-2.35
11.33
11.79 -16.12
27.95
2.83 -15.09
4.98
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES…………………………………............................
33,976 33,843 33,976 35,388 37,774 39,067 39,929 41,778 43,818
MOTOR VEHICLES, BODIES & TRAILERS
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
3.04
-0.39
0.39
4.16
6.74
3.42
2.21
4.63
4.88
& PARTS....................................................................................................................................
4,983
5,734
6,188
6,673
4,877
3,775
1,969
4,463
5,945
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
16.86 22,162
15.07 22,784
7.92 23,695
7.84 25,012
-26.91 26,784
-22.60 25,606
-47.84 26,957
126.66 28,216
33.21
PROFESSIONAL
& BUSINESS
SERVICES………………………….................
20,394
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
5.33
8.67
2.81
4.00
5.56
7.08
-4.40
5.28
4.67
OTHER TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
581
790
862
754
709
596
423
494
545
Percentage
change………………………………………………………………………..
-3.17 19,716
35.97 20,348
9.11 21,316
-12.53 22,356
-5.97 24,393
-15.94 26,373
-29.03 27,077
16.78 28,225
10.32
EDUCATION
& HEALTH
SERVICES………………………...........................
17,900
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
6.83
10.15
3.21
4.76
4.88
9.11
8.12
2.67
4.24
FURNITURE……………………………………………………………………
895
818
773
729
734
578
471
405
386
change………………………………………………………………………..
-8.30
-8.60
-5.50 10,303
-5.69 10,737
0.69 10,524
-21.25 10,285
-18.51 10,542
-14.01 10,921
-4.69
LEISURE Percentage
& HOSPITALITY…………………………………….....................
8,898
9,339
9,705
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
5.34
4.96
3.92
6.16
4.21
-1.98
-2.27
2.50
3.60
MISCELLANEOUS DURABLE GOODS……………… 1,448
1,483
1,563
1,636
1,756
1,875
2,250
2,229
2,217
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
3.50
2.42
5.39
4.67
7.33
6.78
20.00
-0.93
-0.54
OTHER SERVICES…………………………………………............................
5,803
6,116
6,339
6,639
6,595
6,533
6,524
6,649
6,856
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-0.19
5.39
3.65
4.73
-0.66
-0.94
-0.14
1.92
3.11
NONDURABLE GOODS…………………………...………………….
14,223 16,086 15,288 16,245 16,872 16,532 18,012 19,020 18,940
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-4.82 26,016
13.10 28,019
-4.96 29,054
6.26 28,528
3.86 31,276
-2.02 32,417
8.95 31,470
5.60 33,038
-0.42
GOVERNMENT………………………………………………..............................
24,747
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
0.86
5.13
7.70
3.69
-1.81
9.63
3.65
-2.92
4.98
FOOD AND BEVERAGE & TOBACCO......................... 4,642
5,010
5,036
5,442
6,060
6,052
6,912
7,010
6,503
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
-4.80
7.93
0.52
8.06
11.36
-0.13
14.21
1.42
-7.23
FEDERAL.............................................……………………………………..
7,857
7,956
7,638
7,862
8,117
7,714
7,790
8,028
8,124
Percentage change………………………………………………………………………..
3.81
1.26
-3.99
2.93
3.24
-4.96
0.98
3.06
1.20