Scientific &
Regulatory
Perspectives
Presented to: Aviation and the Environment:
Issues & Methods Workshop
By:
Dr. Lourdes Maurice,
Chief Scientific and Technical Advisor
for Environment
FAA Office of Environment & Energy
Date:
September 27-28, 2007
Outline
•
The Challenges Ahead
• Goals & Metrics
• NextGen Solutions
• Concluding Observations
Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives
September 27-28, 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
2
Aviation Environmental Issues - 2003
Community
Noise Impacts
Air Quality
Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives
September 27-28, 2007
Global climate
Federal Aviation
Administration
3
Aviation Environmental Issues - 2005
Community
Noise Impacts
Water Quality
Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives
September 27-28, 2007
Air Quality
Global climate
Federal Aviation
Administration
4
Energy: Evolving Strategic Concerns
Transportation continues
to have the largest
reliance on oil…
…while some are
predicting that we are
nearing the peak of oil
supply.
Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives
September 27-28, 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
5
Energy: Shift in Airline Cost Equation
Source: Air Transport Association
Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives
September 27-28, 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
6
Climate: Evolving Concerns
• United Nation Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1992
– General commitment to reduce certain
greenhouse gas emissions
• Kyoto Protocol 1997 (2005)
– Specific targets for reductions
– Developing countries exempt (for now)
– Coverage of domestic aviation up to each
country
– International aviation subject to ICAO plan (per
Article 2.2)
• ICAO Decision in 2004
– Limit or reduce the impact from aviation
greenhouse gas emissions on climate change
Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives
September 27-28, 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
7
Climate: A Growing Storm
–
“Flying kills. We all know it, and we all do it. And we won't stop doing it until
the Government reverses its policy and starts closing the runways.”
London Guardian, February 28, 2006
–
“Of all the things which an ordinary person does which damage the planet,
flying is far the worst.” Fly Now, Grieve Later, Tyndall Climate Center
–
“Aviation could be the next tobacco industry.”
CANSO Official, ATAG Conference, 2006
–
“…we should tax aviation so heavily…that in within 10 years there should
be virtually no domestic flights.” Conservative MP Tim Yeo, January 2007
–
every time someone dies as a result of floods in Bangladesh, an airline
executive should be dragged out of his office and drowned. George
Monibot, Guardian Newspaper, December 2006
Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives
September 27-28, 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
8
Climate: ICAO Assembly Debate
• GHG Emissions vs. Other Environmental
Issues
• Defining a Way Forward (Technology vs.
Market-Based Measures)
• Shift in Aviation Center of
Gravity
Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives
September 27-28, 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
9
Aviation Environmental Issues - Today
Community Noise Impacts
Air Quality
Energy
Water Quality
Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives
September 27-28, 2007
Global Climate
Federal Aviation
Administration
10
The Way Forward for the US
NextGen Vision
Provide environmental protection that allows
sustained aviation growth
Factors:
• 2X increase in system by 2025
• Fundamental system changes
• Increased importance of environment
• Vision to grow aviation while reducing
significant environmental impacts
Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives
September 27-28, 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
11
Environmental Issues Translate to Capacity Constraints
Preliminary Emissions for
NextGen 2X Growth Scenario
Demand for aviation is growing …
2% Shift
to Micro Jets
3X
Flights
1.4-3X
Passengers
1.8-2.4X
2X
… as is the
environmental
footprint…
Demand
Shift to smaller
aircraft, more airports
HC
+ 75%
CO
+ 70%
NOx
+ 90%
SOx
+ 85%
Increase 10+
pax/flight
Shift to more
passengers / flight
2004
2014
Year
Compiled by Tam et al., 2007
from Boeing data 9/13/05
2025
50 Largest
U.S. Airports
Source: NextGen Integrated Plan, 2004
Non-attainment
Attainment
… and this is coupled
with environmental
capacity constraints.
% of airports
100
80
60
40
20
0
450
300
150
0
1980
Ozone
Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives
September 27-28, 2007
Airports with Restrictions
1X
1990
2000
PM 2.5
Federal Aviation
Administration
12
Our Vision
Environmental Protection that Allows
Sustained Aviation Growth
• By 2025, significant environmental impacts of noise and local air
quality will be reduced in absolute terms, even with the anticipated
growth in aviation.
• Uncertainties about aviation emissions are reduced to enable
appropriate actions to address these effects.
• Communities will value airports as gateways to the national and
international transportation network.
• U.S. aerospace will provide leadership in researching,
developing, and implementing technological, operational and policy
initiatives that address mobility and environmental needs.
Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives
September 27-28, 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
13
Outline
•
The Challenges Ahead
• Goals & Metrics
• NextGen Solutions
• Concluding Observations
Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives
September 27-28, 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
14
Quantifying Goals
Noise
•
NextGen analyses done against goal to reduce noise exposure (65, 55
DNL) 1%/year measured from base of 2000-2002 average (FAA goal)
•
FAA goal is now 4%/year (65 DNL) through Flight Plan (2008-2012)
Local Air quality
•
NextGen analyses compute lbs emissions
•
Engine emissions standards limit lbs emissions; ≠ significance
•
National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) establish significance for
all sources combined
•
Establishing aircraft contribution challenging
Climate
•
NextGen analyses done against goal to improve aviation fuel efficiency per
revenue plane-mile by 1%/year measured from base of 2000-2002 average
(FAA goal)
•
Historical average ~2.2%; goal may become more stringent
•
Fuel burn can be translated to lbs pollutants; ≠ significance
•
Establishing metrics/aviation contribution challenging
Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives
September 27-28, 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
15
Metrics Gaps
Noise
•
“Significance” established as exposure to 65 DNL per Federal
Policy; significant legal precedent
•
Other views but no consensus exist
Local Air quality
•
Lbs emissions (not appropriate for impacts)
•
Need to quantify impacts (e.g., health impacts) – to do so requires
putting aviation contribution in context of other sources
Fuel Burn (Surrogate for Climate)
•
Using fuel burn per revenue passenger mile
•
Other metrics capture other types of performance (e.g., fuel burn
per payload)
•
Working to establish metric; composite metric probably best – but
difficult from a policy perspective
Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives
September 27-28, 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
16
A New Way of Modeling Impacts
Policy and Scenarios
APMT BENEFITS
APMT PARTIAL
EQUILIBRIUM BLOCK
Operations
Schedule
&
SUPPLY
(Carriers)
Fleet
DEMAND
(Consumers)
Emissions
What are the
noise and
emission
characteristics?
Fares
New
VALUATION BLOCK
AEDT
Emissions
Noise
CLIMATE IMPACTS
LOCAL AIR QUALITY
IMPACTS
NOISE IMPACTS
Aircraft
EDS
What are the
environmental
implications & costs
associated with a
vehicle design?
Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives
September 27-28, 2007
Collected
Costs
Emissions
& Noise
Monetized
Benefits
APMT COSTS & BENEFITS
Federal Aviation
Administration
17
Example: Interdependencies - (for one particular set of scenarios and assumptions)
30
US emissions
Yearly cost
$16B/yr
Preliminary Results Only--Do not cite
US$B2005
25
20
15
US emissions
Yearly cost
$2.8B/yr
10
5
89 US airports
$0.5B/yr
(when annualized on a
30 year basis=
$10B “one-time”cost)
0
Climate
Local Air Quality
Noise
3% discount rate
Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives
September 27-28, 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
18
Outline
•
The Challenges Ahead
• Goals & Metrics
• NextGen Solutions
• Concluding Observations
Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives
September 27-28, 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
19
The Best Ultimate Solution: New Aircraft Technologies
Opportunities
• Historically new technologies account for
90% of environmental footprint reduction
• New concepts offer promise for
improvement
• Collaborative demonstrations with industry
can stimulate technology transition
Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives
September 27-28, 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
20
CAAFI - Commercial Aviation Alternative Fuels Initiative
Opportunities
Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives
September 27-28, 2007
•
Alternative Fuels may be Environmentally Friendly
•
Helps Manage Interdependencies
•
Enhances Energy Security/Diversity
•
Aviation’s Potential as First Adapter
•
Sustained High Costs Keep Alternatives Viable
Federal Aviation
Administration
21
Near Term Solutions: Flight operations
Opportunities
•
•
•
New technologies to improve air traffic management will help reduce emissions.
An example is RVSM – Reduced Vertical Separation Minimums. Full worldwide
implementation of RVSM may reduce fuel use by ~500 million gallons each
year.
Other operational approaches, such as continuous descent arrivals, can reduce
fuel burn as well as noise
Reducing congestion, and optimizing airport ground and terminal air space
operations offer great promise for future reductions of noise and emissions
Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives
September 27-28, 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
22
NextGen R&D
• Demonstrate and enable new aviation fuels
derived from domestic resources to ensure
a secure stable fuel supply
• Demonstrate technologies and operations
to enable significant increases in the fuel
efficiency of the aviation system
• Demonstrate technologies and operations
to decrease the environmental impact of
the aviation system
• Advance scientific knowledge/reduce
uncertainties
Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives
September 27-28, 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
23
Reauthorization Provisions focused on NextGen
• Research Consortium for Lower Energy, Emissions
and Noise Technology Partnership “CLEEN”
• Airport Cooperative Research Program
• Environmental Mitigation Demonstration Pilot
Program
• Grant Eligibility for Assessment of Flight Procedures
(Sec. 605)
• Airport Funding of Special Studies or Reviews
http://www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/reauthorization/
Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives
September 27-28, 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
24
Outline
•
The Challenges Ahead
• Goals & Metrics
• NextGen Solutions
• Concluding Observations
Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives
September 27-28, 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
25
Summary
•
Environmental constraints to aviation
growth real and looming
•
We do not know quantitatively what our
goals are – but likely to be more stringent
•
We need metrics to quantify impacts
•
We need to inform policy makers to
enable defining significant
•
We need robust cost-benefit analyses to
inform defining appropriate
•
NextGen Reform Act of 2007 offers
historic environmental provisions to deal
with these challenges
Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives
September 27-28, 2007
Federal Aviation
Administration
26