Design of a Positive Feedback Investment Cycle
to Achieve a Lunar Habitat:
ROI Calculator for Capability Stepping-Stones
By: GMU SEOR 2012 Senior Design Students: Daniel He)ema Sco) Neal Anh Quach Robert Taylor Agenda
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
2 Context
Need & Problem Statements
Design Alternatives
Models
Results
Trade-Off Analysis
Findings & Recommendations
Program Management
CONTEXT
Benefits of Space
•  Next Step for humanity
–  New unique opportunities
•  Many new spin-off technologies invented
–  Space Race
•  The space race during the cold war provided
incredible technological advances:
–  CAT and MRI machines
–  Freeze dried foods
–  Scratch resistant lenses
–  Eventual development of PCs
4 Benefits of Space
•  Large New Market:
–  Jobs, new technologies and capabilities
•  Stimulate economic growth
•  Military
–  Strategic defense abilities
“(Space programs are) a force operating on
educational pipelines that stimulate the
formation of scientists, technologists,
engineers and mathematicians…They’re the
ones that make tomorrow come.”
-Neil deGrasse Tyson 5 Investment Below “Critical Mass”
•  Critical Mass: investment threshold
which, once surpassed, irreversibly begins
the development of space
•  When spending was sufficient, progress
was made.
–  Currently not enough investment
–  Slow progress and inefficient spending
results
6 Government Funding
•  Decline in US government investment % US Federal Budget allo)ed to NASA 7 1st Man on Moon Space Shu)le ISS Year NASA Annual Budget staMsMcs. The World Almanac and Book of Facts 1960 through 2001. Past and Current Investments
Industries •  Governments
•  Private –  USA
Currently invesMng: –  China
–  Russia
–  Brazil
–  India
8 •  SpaceX ($100M) •  Bigelow Aerospace ($180M) •  Virgin GalacMc ($100M) •  Many others Limiting Factors for Investment
•  Launch Costs
–  Too high
•  Insurance Costs
–  Debris
–  Failures in technology
–  Too much risk
•  Probability of negative ROI very high
9 Historic Trend of $/lb to LEO 25000 23800 20000 Cost ($/lb) 15470 15000 16500 10490 "Historic Trend of $/lb to LEO (all values global average unless denoted)" 10000 5000 2015 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 0 1000 (SpaceX projected) Year 10 www.Spacex.com Space TransportaMon Costs: Trends in Price Per Pound to Orbit 1990-­‐2000.” Futron. 06-­‐Sep-­‐2002 Debris Growth Over Time
Debris(Growth(Over(Time(
60000"
Objects(of(Debris(
50000"
40000"
30000"
20000"
10000"
0"
1960"
1970"
1980"
1990"
2000"
2010"
2020"
2030"
2040"
2050"
2060"
Year(
J. Pearson, E. Levin, and J. Carroll. “AcMve Removal of LEO Space Debris: The ElectroDynamic Debris Eliminator (EDDE).” August 31, 2011. h)p://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-­‐dyn/content/arMcle/2009/11/06/AR2009110603555.html?wprss=rss_naMon/science 11 Launch Failure Rate
Launch"Failure"Rate"to"LEO"
60"
%"of"Failure"Rate"
50"
40"
30"
Failure"Rate"
20"
10"
0"
1950"
1960"
1970"
1980"
Years"
12 1990"
2000"
2010"
“Optimal” Coordinated Stakeholders
Provide Launches Space Habitats Launch Services Demand for Launches Habitat leasing Demand for Habitats Clean LEO Habitats Debris CollecMon Clean LEO High-­‐
AlMtude/ Space Tourism 13 Civilian Space Travel RegulaMon, Demand for Habitats Clean LEO Government Funding, RegulaMon Clean LEO Satellite Companies Demand for Trips Earth’s PopulaMon RegulaMon Reality #1: Debris Collection
Underfunded
Space Habitats Launch Services No Funding Earth’s PopulaMon No Funding Clean LEO High-­‐
AlMtude/ Space Tourism 14 Clean LEO Debris CollecMon Clean LEO Government Negligible Funding Clean No funding LEO Satellite Companies Debris Collection Tension
15 Reality #2: Space Habitats need
Bootstrap Funding
Government Launch Services Demand for Launches Habitat leasing No Funding Space Habitats Habitat Leasing Debris CollecMon 16 Satellite Companies No Funding High-­‐
AlMtude/ Space Tourism Earth’s PopulaMon No Funding Reality #3: High Cost of Launch Services
Government Launch Services Demand for Launches Habitat leasing Provide Launches Launch costs remain high because there is no consistent demand Satellite Companies Space Habitats Habitat Leasing Demand for Habitats High-­‐
AlMtude/ Space Tourism Earth’s PopulaMon 17 Demand for Habitats, RegulaMon Debris CollecMon Major Stakeholders
Stakeholder Objec7ve Issues High AlMtude Tourism Foster/maintain interest in space Feasibility Debris CollecMon Clean LEO Lack of funding Satellite Companies Lower orbital costs, increase satellite lifeMme High, increasing orbital risk, launch costs Space Habitats Inhabit LEO, provide research environment Lack of interest, launch costs Launch Services Provide compeMMve launch cost Launch costs decrease with frequency, but not enough demand Space Tourism Sustainable space-­‐based tourism Insufficient technology, exposure, capability Government RegulaMon, Funding, Strengthen economy Focused on near-­‐term Earth’s PopulaMon Be)er life Focused on near-­‐term Private Industry 18 Investors Dis-Investment Cycle
space
habitats
launch
frequency
_
launch
costs
Space
Activity
_
investment
_
space
tourism
Debris
collection
_
amount of
debris
19 _
orbital
insurance
NEED & PROBLEM
STATEMENTS
Need Statement
There is a need to break the disinvestment cycle, by focusing on reducing
launch costs, and insurance premiums,
that will lead to a profitable development
of space. 21 Problem Statement
Evaluate the costs and revenues of space
markets to develop synergy in
investments of capabilities that will break
the dis-investment cycle.
22 DESIGN ALTERNATIVES:
STEPPING-STONE
CAPABILITIES
Project Scope
•  Stepping-Stones to a lunar Habitat
•  Focus on combining existing solutions to
address:
–  Launch
–  Debris
–  LEO Habitats
–  Lunar Habitats
•  Single String design
24 Capability Stepping-Stone 1
Stepping-­‐Stone 1: High AlMtude Tourism Virgin GalacMc Tourism Trips (2013) Capability: Commercial Tourism to Space Focus: Encouraging seed funding 25 Capability Stepping-Stone 2
Stepping Stone 2: High AlMtude Tourism and Debris CollecMon Capability: Reduce risk in space by lowering the amount of debris in space. Focus: Reduces insurance rates 26 Capability Stepping-Stone 3
Stepping-­‐Stone 3: LEO Habitats Bigelow Aerospace Capability: LEO Life Sustainability Focus: Reduces Launch costs 27 Capability Stepping-Stone 4
Stepping-­‐Stone 4: LEO Hub and Moon Base Capability: Extension of tourism to the Moon, Development of space-­‐exclusive personnel ships Temporary HabitaMon of the Moon Focus: Reduce launch costs & space exclusive ship 28 Capability Stepping-Stone 5
Stepping-­‐Stone 5: Permanent Lunar HabitaMon Capability: Lunar life sustainability Lunar Mining & Manufacturing FoundaMon for delving further into space Focus: Sustainability 29 Building Block Diagram
High-Altitude Tourism serves as the catalyst to incite
the interest, and therefore the investment, of the Earth’s population in space.
Debris Collection serves to reverse the trend
of declining conditions in LEO
Interest &
Investment
30 Reverse the Trend Reverse the Trend Reverse the Trend Interest &
Investment
Interest &
Investment
Interest &
Investment
Building Block Diagram (cont’d)
LEO Habitats -­‐LEO sustainability -­‐Increased Frequency of launches = Decreased Launch Costs -­‐Interest from government/private industry -­‐Environment to conduct research in space Interest &
Investment
31 Launch Costs
Launch Costs
Gov’t/Private
Interest
Gov’t/Private
Interest
Reverse the Trend Reverse the Trend Reverse the Trend Interest &
Investment
Interest &
Investment
Interest &
Investment
Building Block Diagram (cont’d)
Hub & Moon Base -­‐Temporary presence on the Moon -­‐ConMnued Decrease of launch costs -­‐LEO & Lunar Tourism -­‐Space-­‐exclusive Ships -­‐Extension of Sustainability into space Interest &
Investment
32 Launch Costs
Extension of
sustainability
Launch Costs
Launch Costs
Gov’t/Private
Interest
Gov’t/Private
Interest
Reverse the Trend Reverse the Trend Reverse the Trend Interest &
Investment
Interest &
Investment
Interest &
Investment
Building Block Diagram (cont’d)
Permanent Moon Base -­‐Permanent Presence on the Moon -­‐”Live off the Land” -­‐Lunar Mining and Manufacturing -­‐Plaqorm for delving further into space Interest &
Investment
33 Launch Costs
Extension of
sustainability
Launch Costs
Launch Costs
Gov’t/Private
Interest
Gov’t/Private
Interest
Reverse the Trend Reverse the Trend Reverse the Trend Interest &
Investment
Interest &
Investment
Interest &
Investment
Design Thesis Statement
It is feasible to break the dis-investment
cycle using capability stepping-stones.
space
habitats
launch
frequency
_
launch
costs
Space
Activity
_
investment
_
space
tourism
Debris
collection
_
amount of
debris
34 _
orbital
insurance
MODELS
Top Level Model
Seed Funding
Stepping Stone
Capabilities
Investment
Lunar Habitat
ROI Calculator
ROI
Goal: To create a posiMve feedback loop for stepping-­‐stones investment 36 Stepping-Stone 1: High Altitude Tourism
Financial Model
•  Focus: Finding best ROI given:
IniMal Investment Ticket Price ROI Virgin GalacMc •  Equation:
Profit = =
37 Development Costs Cost of Ship Maintenance Costs Decommissioning Cost Number of trips Stepping-Stone 2: High Altitude Tourism + Debris Collection
•  Input/Output Diagram
IniMal Investment ROI Number of trips Reduced Insurance Costs Virgin GalacMc + Current Debris QuanMty Debris Removal New Debris QuanMty Ticket Price •  Limitations
–  No crashing
•  Assumption
–  Debris collected is not salvaged
38 • Validation
• Based on Star Tech Inc
Debris collection model
• Purpose of model:
• To show the effect of debris collection on insurance rates
Stepping-Stone 2: High Altitude Tourism + Debris Collection
•  Major Equations:
–  High Altitude Tourism ROI equation (SS1)
–  Debris Collection Equation
•  –  xi = debris in the atmosphere
–  xi+1 = debris in the atmosphere after time step
–  d = amount of debris added per time step
–  n = number of debris collectors (12, variable)
–  r = rate of collection
–  e = efficiency of collection
39 Efficiency of Debris Collection
_ 40 Stepping-Stone 3: LEO Habitat
•  Focus: LEO Sustainability
•  Input/Output Diagram
IniMal Investment Demand ROI LEO Habitat People in space •  Modeling from the perspective of Bigelow Aerospace
Profit = P = habitat lease price CMH= Maintenance cost for habitat Ch= cost of habitat Lh = lifeMme of habitat CLH= cost to launch habitat MTBFH = esMmated habitat failure rate CLP= cost to launch people to habitat 41 n = number of habitats Launch Costs Reduction
through Scale
•
Stepping Stone 3 & 4 involve the launching of habitats, as well as launching
inhabitants, and maintenance personnel for the habitats
Launch Cost Reduc7on Curve •
42 The frequency of traffic to and from LEO increases, which translates to reduced
launch costs
Stepping-Stone 4: Orbiting Hub & Moon Base
•  Input/Output Diagram
IniMal Investment # of Habitats comprising Hub Demand •
ROI Hub & Moon Base # people travelled to the Moon Hub traffic and commerce Capabilities obtained:
–  Space-exclusive ships
–
•
Assumption
–
–
•
•  No re-entry
•  Solar or nuclear powered (non-chemical)
Temporary Colonization of the Moon
≤72 hours to get to Moon Base from Hub (Apollo 11 was 76 hours)
Capacity of 10 for both ship types (Earth-Hub, Hub-Moon Base)
Purpose of Model:
–  Investment in longer-term tourism in space, both to the hub and the Moon
43 Stepping-Stone 4 Equation
•  Model from the perspective of generic Tourism Company
Profit = TH = Tickets to Hub PTH = Price of Mcket to hub TM = Tickets to Moon Base PTM = Price of Mckets to Moon Base CH = Cost of hub CMB = Cost of Moon base LMB = Lifespan of Moon base MTBFMB = Failure rate of Moon Base CM,MB = Cost to maintain Moon Base LH = Lifespan of Hub MTBFH = Failure rate of Hub CM,H = Cost to maintain Hub 44 x = Earth-­‐Hub Ships y = Hub-­‐Moon base Ships Cx = Cost of Earth-­‐Hub Ship Cy = Cost of Hub-­‐Moon Base Ship Capx = Capacity of Earth-­‐Hub Ship Capy = Capacity of Hub-­‐Moon Base Ship Lx = Lifespan of Earth-­‐Hub Ship MTBFx = Failure rate of E-­‐H Ship Ly = Lifespan of Hub-­‐Moon Base Ship MTBFy = Failure rate of H-­‐MB Ship CM,X = Maintenance cost for E-­‐H Ship CM,Y = Maintenance Cost for H-­‐MB Ship Stepping Stone 5: Permanent
Lunar Base
•  Input/Output Diagram
IniMal Investment # of people living on Moon Sustainable? Permanent Lunar Base •  Limitations
–  Mining is limited to the Moon
•  Assumption
–  Water, Oxygen and Nitrogen
are harvested through regolith processing
45 ROI Tons of Water, Oxygen Processed • What the model shows:
• ROI
• Feasibility of Sustainability on
the Moon
Stepping-Stone 5 Equation
Profit =
R = Average Regolith Payload
n = Number of Payloads
CB+E = Cost of Base & Equipment
Co = Operating Costs/year
Cm = Maintenance Costs/year
Ct = Travel Cost on Moon/lb
P = Average Payload
T = Number of Trips/year
46 Models
•  Independent model per stepping-stone
•  Constructed using SPEC Innovations NimbusSE
–  Can utilize database capabilities to do traceability,
track changes
–  Allows users to observe the effects of changes on
the model
–  Provides visual clarity in constructing parallel
processes
•  All cost calculations are using NPV
•  p = inflation = .03 k = rate if saved = .04
47 RESULTS
Dis-Investment Cycle
space
habitats
launch
frequency
_
launch
costs
Space
Activity
_
investment
_
space
tourism
Debris
collection
_
amount of
debris
49 _
orbital
insurance
Overall Results
Stepping-­‐Stone Breakeven Point (yrs) Investment Revenue ROI in 10 yrs High AlMtude Tourism 4.5 $110,853,529 $229,071,428 182% Debris CollecMon None NA NA None LEO Habitat 10 $1,354,209,390 1,297,137,925 LEO Hub & Moon Base 8 $3,736,587,482 4,428,991,597 118% Permanent Lunar Habitat >13 50 $1,698,046,181 1,339,253,996 98% 79% Investment Cycle
space
habitats
launch
frequency
_
+
launch
costs
Space
Activity
+
investment
_
+
space
tourism
Debris
collection
_
+
amount of
debris
51 _
+
orbital
insurance
Capability Stepping-Stone
Stepping-­‐Stone 1: High AlMtude Tourism 52 2012$NPV$Dollars$
Millions$
Stepping-Stone 1
Virgin$Galac6c$Investment/Revenue$
1.40E+02%
1.20E+02%
1.00E+02%
8.00E+01%
6.00E+01%
4.00E+01%
Investment%
2.00E+01%
Revenue%
0.00E+00%
0%
1%
2%
3%
Years$
53 IniMal Investment: $100 million Direct mission costs: $400 thousand Insurance premium percent: 10% Ticket price: $200 thousand People per ship: 6 4%
5%
Stepping-Stone 1
•  Key Output Assumption:
–  Doing space tourism increases interest in
space, thus increasing investment
–  This interest & investment is key to having
the other stepping-stone become more
viable 54 Capability Stepping-Stone
Stepping Stone 2: High AlMtude Tourism + Debris CollecMon 55 Stepping-Stone 2
Collision$Insurance$Costs$
based$on:$7%$of$10%$total$insurance$premium$
40500$
40000$
2012$NPV$Dollars$
39500$
39000$
Cost$
38500$
38000$
37500$
37000$
0$
1$
2$
3$
Years$
56 4$
5$
Stepping-Stone 2
Tourism's$Investment$
1.08E+08(
2012$NPV$Dollars$
1.06E+08(
1.04E+08(
With(Debris(
Collec<on(
1.02E+08(
1.00E+08(
9.80E+07(
Without(Debris(
Collec<on(
9.60E+07(
9.40E+07(
0(
1(
2(
3(
Years$
57 4(
5(
Stepping-Stone 2
•  Key Output:
–  Without a continuing debris collection
there is an increasing extra cost associated
with LEO habitation from collision risk
58 Capability Stepping-Stone
Stepping-­‐Stone 3: LEO Habitats 59 Stepping-Stone 3
LEO$Habaits$Investment$&$Revenue$
2E+09"
1.8E+09"
1.6E+09"
NPV$Dollars$
1.4E+09"
1.2E+09"
1E+09"
800000000"
600000000"
Revenue"
400000000"
Investment"
200000000"
0"
0"
60 1"
2"
3"
4"
5"
IniMal Investment: 200 million Lease cost over 5 years: 120 million Percentage up front: 50% Cost to build 1 habitat: 75 million MTBF: 2.5 years Lifecycle: 10 years 6"
Years$
7"
8"
9"
10"
11"
12"
Stepping-Stone 3
Habitats&in&LEO&
14"
12"
Count&
10"
8"
6"
Habitats"
4"
Decommissioning of Habitat 2"
0"
0"
1"
2"
3"
4"
5"
6"
Years&
61 7"
8"
9"
10"
11"
12"
Stepping-Stone 3
•  Key Outputs:
–  Continuing interest generation and
investment increases
–  Shifts focus from increasing launch capability
to life sustainability
62 Stepping-Stone 4
Stepping-­‐Stone 4: LEO Hub and Moon Base 63 Stepping-Stone 4
Stepping7Stone$4:$
Investment$&$Revenue$
4500"
2012$NPV$in$Millions$
4000"
3500"
3000"
2500"
2000"
1500"
Investment"
1000"
Revenue"
500"
0"
0"
1"
2"
3"
4"
5"
Time$in$yrs$
64 IniMal Investment: $200 M StarMng Habitats: 8 Ticket price to LEO: $50 K Ticket price to Moon: $200 K 6"
7"
8"
9"
Stepping-Stone 4
LEO"Habitats"
45"
40"
35"
#"of"Habitats"
30"
25"
20"
LEO"Habitats"
15"
10"
5"
0"
0"
1"
2"
3"
4"
5"
Time"in"yrs"
65 6"
7"
8"
9"
Stepping-Stone 4
LEO"&"Moon"Trips"
1800"
1600"
1400"
#"of"trips"
1200"
1000"
to"LEO"
800"
to"Moon"
600"
400"
200"
0"
0"
1"
2"
3"
4"
5"
Time"in"yrs"
66 6"
7"
8"
9"
Stepping-Stone 4
•  Key Outcomes:
–  Are making frequent trips to Moon
–  LEO infrastructure is built
–  “Pure” space travel vehicle (does not enter
Earth’s atmosphere)
•  Reduces travel costs by relying on non-chemical
propulsion 67 Stepping-Stone 5
Stepping-­‐Stone 5: Permanent Lunar HabitaMon 68 Stepping-Stone 5
Stepping9Stone$5:$
Investment$&$Revenue$
2500"
2012$NPV$USD$in$Millions$
2000"
1500"
1000"
Investment"
500"
Revenue"
0"
0"
69 1"
2"
3"
4"
5"
6"
7"
Time$in$yrs$
8"
9"
10"
IniMal Investment: $800 M Amount of Regolith removed per quarter: = 40,000 tons OperaMonal Costs: ~$100M/yr People: 50 start, growth of ~20 11"
12"
13"
TRADE-OFF ANALYSIS
70 SS 5 Cost Reduction
Stepping8Stone$5:$
with$20%$cost$reducAon$
2000"
2012$NPV$USD$Millions$
1800"
1600"
1400"
1200"
1000"
800"
600"
Investment"
400"
Revenue"
200"
0"
0"
1"
2"
3"
4"
5"
6"
7"
Years$
71 8"
9"
10"
11"
12"
13"
SS 5 Cost Reduction
•  Travel costs: $100/lb to ~ $45/lb
•  Increase removed regolith: 160,000 tons
to ~ 248,000 tons
•  People: –  Start: 50 to 25
–  Growth: 20 to 5
•  Operational Costs: $100M to $65M
72 Investment Required based on
Debris Removal
Effect$of$No$Debris$Removal$on$SS$3$
3E+09"
Revenue"
Investment"without"Debris"
2.5E+09"
Investment"with"Debris"
2012$NPV$USD$
2E+09"
1.5E+09"
1E+09"
500000000"
0"
0"
1"
2"
3"
4"
5"
6"
Years$
7"
8"
9"
10"
11"
12"
Potential Investment for SS 4
Effect$of$Launch$cost$on$SS$4$
4500"
4000"
2012$NPV$USD$in$Millions$
3500"
3000"
2500"
$1000"
Launch"Cost"
2000"
Revenue"
1500"
Expected"
(Curve)"
1000"
$1"Launch"
Cost"
500"
0"
0"
1"
2"
3"
4"
5"
Time$in$yrs$
74 6"
7"
8"
9"
Effect of No Mining On Moon
•  Have to Launch ALL materials from Earth
–  Structure, life essential elements, provisions
•  Ignoring Earth based purchase costs
•  Using same launch cost as in SS. 5
($250 / lbs)
75 Effect of No Mining On Moon
Stepping9Stone$5:$
Mining$vs$No$Mining$
3500"
2012$NPV$USD$in$Millions$
3000"
2500"
2000"
1500"
Mining"
Investment"
1000"
No"Mining"
Investment"
500"
0"
0"
1"
2"
3"
4"
5"
6"
7"
Time$in$yrs$
76 8"
9"
10"
11"
12"
13"
FINDINGS &
RECOMMENDATIONS
Findings
Thesis Statement: It is feasible to break the
dis-investment cycle using capability
stepping-stones.
The capability stepping-stones adequately
address the issues of launch cost,
insurance cost, and investment below
critical mass.
78 Recommendations
•  To make LEO Habitats economically
feasible, debris collection must have
already begun
–  Cost savings of $1 Billion over 10 yrs
•  Unless total launch cost are reduced to
$100/lb, a space exclusive vehicle is
beneficial to keep future cost low
–  Cost savings of $800 Million over 8 yrs
79 Capability Rank-List
80 Investment Order Capability Savings 1 Debris CollecMon $1 Billion 2 Launch cost $800 Million 3 Habitats NA -­‐ Necessary 4 Space exclusive ship $800 Million 5 Life sustainability NA -­‐ Necessary Recommended
Capability
Stepping-Stone
Timeline
Each stepping-­‐stone starts when the previous stepping-­‐
stone has reached 80% ROI 81 Continuing Work
•  Gain access to industries’ data private
cost and performance values
•  Expand the depth of each of the
stepping-stones, focusing on:
–  Debris Collection
–  LEO Habitats with Lunar Trips
82 MANAGEMENT
WBS
0.0 Space ExploraMon 1.0 Research 2.0 Define 3.0 Design 4.0 Model 5.0 Analysis 6.0 Deliverables WBS
3.0 Design 3.1 SS 1 85 3.2 SS 2 3.3 SS 3 3.4 SS 4 3.5 SS 5 3.1.1 IO Diagram 3.2.1 IO Diagram 3.3.1 IO Diagram 3.4.1 IO Diagram 3.5.1 IO Diagram 3.1.2 EquaMon 3.2.2 EquaMon 3.3.2 EquaMon 3.4.2 EquaMon 3.5.2 EquaMon WBS
4.0 Model 4.1 Build 86 4.2 Simulate 4.1.1 SS 1 4.2.1 SS 1 4.1.2 SS 2 4.2.2 SS 2 4.1.3 SS 3 4.2.3 SS 3 4.1.4 SS 4 4.2.4 SS 4 4.1.5 SS 5 4.2.5 SS 5 4.3 Validate Project Budget
Project'Budget'
1600"
1400"
1200"
Dollars'
1000"
Budget"
800"
Actual"
600"
Earned"Value"
400"
200"
0"
1"
3"
5"
7"
9"
11"
13"
15"
17"
19"
Weeks'
87 21"
23"
25"
27"
29"
31"
33"
35"
CPI & SPI
Project&CPI&&&SPI&
1.15$
1.1$
Index&Value&
1.05$
1$
CPI$
0.95$
SPI$
0.9$
0.85$
0.8$
1$
3$
5$
7$
9$
11$
13$
15$
17$
Weeks&
88 19$
21$
23$
25$
27$
29$
31$
33$
89 “I haven’t seen this level of analysis on this topic before. This analysis and
outcome is a very useful “stepping-stone” for policy decisions and next
level of analysis. Well done!”
- Dr. Steven Dam, President, SPEC Innovations
QUESTIONS
90 BACKUP
Launch Costs to LEO
Payload Costs of Heavy Launch Vehicles* to LEO in 2000 (Converted from 2000 to 2011 US$) [8] $7,000 $6,000 Cost per lb $5,000 $6,182 USA $5,441 $4,000 China $3,000 $2,000 "SpaceX"(USA) $2,553 $2,618 $1,000 $0 Country of Origin *Heavy Launch Vehicles: 20,000-­‐50,000kg payload (Futron, 2002) 92 Russia 93 94 NASA vs DOD budget funding 800 700 600 Budget ($B) 500 400 Budget ($B) 300 200 100 0 DOD 95 NASA