Decision-Support Tool for Designing
Small Package Delivery Aerial Vehicles
Ali, Ashruf
Ballou, Nathan
McDougall, Brad
Valle, Jorge
Sponsor
Tradeoff Cycle
Lance Sherry, CATSR
Increased
Total Weight
More
Power
Supporters
Payload
Bo Pollet, Aurora Flight Sciences
Ranga Nuggehalli, UPS
Matthew Bieschke, NEXA Capital
Bigger
Battery
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Bigger
Frame
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Agenda
• Context
• Gap Analysis
• Stakeholder Analysis
• Problem / Need / Vision
• Requirements
• Decision-Support Tool
• DoE-Validation
• Project Management
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Unmanned Aircraft Systems: Now
• UAS market as a whole is dominated by Military
applications, and is largely fixed wing.
• The current market for Multi-Rotor UAS is niche and
consists mostly of hobbyists.
• This is largely because the FAA has yet to integrate UAS
being used for commercial purposes into our NAS.
• Once the integration occurs we see a major potential for
growth.
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Unmanned Aircraft Systems: Future
Time
Source: Volpe, National Transportation Systems Center
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Growth Potential
There are many areas that could thrive when Commercial UAS are
integrated into NAS:
Where we see the biggest potential for growth is in
package delivery.
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
E-commerce Growth
Ecommerce Growth in the US
250.0
R² = 0.9292
Billion USD
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Years
Source: US Census Bureau, Annual Retail Trade Survey
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
2012
2013
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
E-commerce vs. Total Retail
Source: US Department of Commerce
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Retail Sales being Delivered by:
USPS, UPS, FedEx
Source: Courier Express & Postal Observer
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Shipment and Logistics
Between UPS and FedEx roughly 25 million packages
were handled every day in 2012, with the revenue being
roughly $90 billion for the year.
Strictly due to the volume of packages handled, this could
be a huge market for Multi-Rotor UAS.
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Package Delivery
Market
Application
Shipment/Logistic
Transportation or delivery of mail and
small packages.
Retail
Rapid delivery for non brick & mortar
purchases.
Food
Rapid food delivery.
Maintenance
Rapid parts delivery to inaccessible
locations
Medical
Bring aid to remote location.
Those currently tasked with designing a multirotor platform are not Design Engineers.
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Firsthand Account
Our design team visited a UPS Sorting Facility on September
12th, 2014 in Sparks, Maryland.
We were given a tour of the facility during it’s busiest hours and
then spoke with Operations Research staff.
We witnessed this knowledge gap happen during our tour of the
facility:
• Loss of profit due to missloads.
• Multi-Rotor UAS a possible solution.
• Despite having an application for a Multi-Rotor SPDAV, their
specialty is Logistics not UAS design.
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Why Unmanned Multi-Rotor Aircraft?
• Small
• Easy piloting
• Attainable
• Inexpensive
• Agile
• VTOL
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Agenda
• Context
• Gap Analysis
• Stakeholder Analysis
• Problem / Need / Vision
• Requirements
• Decision-Support Tool
• DoE-Validation
• Project Management
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Gap Analysis
There is a market wide knowledge gap pertaining to
performance and mission suitability of Multi-Rotor Aircraft.
Due to the newness of the technology, there are no
resources/heuristics for making an informed purchase.
Knowledge Gap
Tradeoff Cycle
Increased
Total Weight
More
Power
Payload
Bigger
Battery
15
Bigger
Frame
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Agenda
• Context
• Gap Analysis
• Stakeholder Analysis
• Problem / Need / Vision
• Requirements
• Decision-Support Tool
• DoE-Validation
• Project Management
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Stakeholder Analysis
Class
Stakeholder
1.
End User
2.
UAS/UAS Parts
Manufacturers
Secondary/ Tertiary
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Tensions
1.
Receive a configuration
recommendation based on
their own requirements.
1.
2.
Maximize profit through sale
of product.
3.
Build a reliable multi-rotor
aircraft.
3.
1.
To have the availability of
the benefits from
commercial UAS while
maintaining a safe
environment.
1.
Issues with rules/regulations for
Commercial UAS may arise between
them and the FAA.
2.
Safety concerns with the air traffic
may be had with the FAA.
3.
Being held accountable for any
issues that arise with the
rules/regulations.
2.
Design Engineers
Primary
1.
Goals
1.
Citizens
2.
Low-Altitude Air Traffic
3.
FAA
2.
1.
Maintain a safe airspace to
travel in and minimize all
possible risks.
Issues with rules/regulations
implemented by the FAA that they
must follow.
Possible loss of profit by end users
using the Decision-Support Tool.
FAA rules/regulations restricting
market growth.
Possible loss of profit if DST is
implemented.
To keep the NAS safe and
well regulated.
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Interactions: Win-Win
DST-SPDAV
New regulations and
feedback will help to
improve the DST.
FAA
Citizens
Air Traffic
By providing the best
multi-rotor aircraft, safety
and reliability increase.
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More commercial
opportunities
Enable end users to select
the right multi-rotor aircraft.
End User
More accurately inform
design decisions
UAS
Manufactures
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Agenda
• Context
• Gap Analysis
• Stakeholder Analysis
• Problem / Need / Vision
• Requirements
• Decision-Support Tool
• DoE-Validation
• Project Management
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Problem Statement
Users of Multi-Rotor UAS, for small package
delivery, are not experts on their design and do
not understand the tradeoffs in utility.
Tradeoff Cycle
Increased
More
Total Weight
Power
Payload
Bigger
Battery
20
Bigger
Frame
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Need Statement
• Commercial UAS will be integrated into the NAS in the
immediate future.
• The majority of UAS consumers don’t have the time,
energy, or resources to study the design requirements.
• Consumers have very specific requirements with a market
that has very little information.
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Vision Statement
Design a decision-support tool that considers
an end user’s requirements and determines the
most effective Multi-Rotor Aerial Vehicle for
their particular application.
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Agenda
• Context
• Gap Analysis
• Stakeholder Analysis
• Problem / Need / Vision
• Requirements
• Decision-Support Tool
• DoE-Validation
• Project Management
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Mission Requirements
• The DST-SPDAV shall provide a different configurations
of a multi rotor aircraft that will be able to carry a payload
for a certain distance over a given flight profile.
• The DST-SPDAV shall provide a configuration of a multi
rotor aircraft that is reliable, operates at a high
performance and it is within the end user’s budget.
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Functional Requirements
• The DST-SPDAV shall eliminate different combination of
components based on a basic power capability check.
• The DST-SPDAV shall evaluate each outputted
configuration of the dynamic model in order to find the
best configuration that has the highest utility as defined
by the end user.
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Functional Requirements
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Input Requirements
Inputs
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Definition
Endurance
Minimum flight distance with a given
payload.
Payload
Minimum payload weight over a given
distance.
Flight Profile
Flight characteristics to be evaluated
by the decision support tool.
Weights for Objective Function
Values given by the end user which
represent the importance of
performance, reliability and cost.
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Multi-Rotor Aircraft Components
Configuration Parts
Propellers
Motors
Battery
Frame (Chassis)
Electronic Speed Controller
(ESC)
Microcontroller
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Agenda
• Context
• Gap Analysis
• Stakeholder Analysis
• Problem / Need / Vision
• Requirements
• Decision-Support Tool
• DoE-Validation
• Project Management
29
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Simulation Flow
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Components Involving in Power
Model and their Properties:
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Batteries
Motors
Propellers
Capacity (mAh)
Kv (rpm/v)
Size
Output Voltage
Weight
Prop Constant
Max Discharge
Max Current
Power Factor
Weight
Size
Weight
Size
Max Voltage
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Power Consumption equations:
Motor gives the most effective rpm
to hover given a battery voltage
Final thrust produced by a propeller
based on momentum theory


2
2
T
 2 D P 
1/ 3
rpm

Kv * 0.5 * Battery _ Volts
2
𝑇 = 𝑇ℎ𝑟𝑢𝑠𝑡 (𝑁)
𝐷 = 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑟 𝐷𝑖𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑟 (𝑚)
Hover occurs when thrust
equals vehicle weight
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𝑃 = 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑝𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡 ∗ 𝑟𝑝𝑚𝑃𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑊
𝜌 = density of air (1.225kg/𝑚3)
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Simulation Flow
33
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Dynamic Simulation Flow Chart
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Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Coordinate Systems
Inertial and Body Frame
Vertical Center of Mass
The atmospheric model is the MATLAB
aerospace toolbox implementation of the
ISA atmospheric model for altitudes below
20000 m [ISO standards document].
Source: Parker, Accurate Modeling and Robot Hovering Control for a Quad-rotor
VTOL Aircraft, 2010
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Motor Dynamics
Kirchoff’s voltage law and Newton’s
second law
For steady state
Rewritten with simplifications
Source: Movellan, DC Motors, 2010
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Momentum Theory (MT): Hover
Uniform Inflow Model
Conservation of Mass
Final Equations
Source: Leishman, Principles of Helicopter Aerodynamics, 2002
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Blade Element Theory (BET)
Source: Leishman, Principles of Helicopter Aerodynamics, 2002
38
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Final Force and Moment Equations
Source: Martinez, Modelling of the Flight Dynamic of a Quadrotor Helicopter, 2007
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Simple Solids Model
Estimated profile
for use in the
aerodynamic and
inertial models.
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Aerodynamic Model
General Drag Equation
Orientation Based Drag Equation
Cross-sectional Area
Final Forces
Presented Area Approximation
Source: Mansson, Model-based Design Development and Control of a
Wind Resistant Multirotor UAV, 2014
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Geometry and Moments of Inertia
Modeled as simple solids
Rotation Matrix
Parallel axis theorem
For each component
Source: Mansson, Model-based
Design Development and Control of a
Wind Resistant Multirotor UAV, 2014
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
6-DoF Kinematics
Newton-Euler Formalism
Final Equations
Velocities and Inertial Tensor
Source: Mansson, Model-based Design Development and Control of
a Wind Resistant Multirotor UAV, 2014
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Example Configuration (Hexa)
Distance
Altitude
Flight Profile
Approximately 1.5m
from tip-to-tip
-Solid: Flight with payload
-Dashed: Return flight w/o payload
-Speed: 80% throttle
-Altitude:100m
Battery: 10,000mAh
Propeller: 16in APC profile
Motor: Hengli 5134
ESC: 40amp
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
44
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Example Output (Hexa)
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Example Output (Octo)
46
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Simulation Flow
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Utility Model
Utility=(P_Weight)*(Performance)+(R_Weight)*(Reliability)
Performance
• Weight is given from end-user
• Performance value is the integral
under the Performance Curve.
• The performance utility is the product
of the Performance Weight and
Performance Value.
Reliability
• Weight is given from end-user
• Reliability Value is dependent upon
the rotor configuration.
• The reliability utility is the product of
the Reliability Weight and the
Reliability Value.
Once the Utility is measured for the top ten outputs from the model, we will show
the tradeoff between Utility and Cost as well the configuration of the Multi-Rotor
Aerial Vehicle for each output.
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Agenda
• Context
• Gap Analysis
• Stakeholder Analysis
• Problem / Need / Vision
• Requirements
• Decision-Support Tool
• DoE-Validation
• Project Management
49
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Validation Process
Stage
Test
Pre-Check
Check for basic functionality by inputting a
pre-existing configuration into our simulation
and compare our results to the
manufacturer’s data.
Confirmed for power
model to 10% error
Static Flight Profile (Hover)
Confirmed for power
model to 10% error
Dynamic Flight Profile
(Battery and aircraft trajectories)
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Hold aircraft at a #ft hover and measure the
total hover time and the motor’s
current/voltage
Fly aircraft along an average flight plan and
measure the total flight time, the motor’s
current/voltage, and aircraft position.
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Hardware
Christopher Vo
• President of DC Area Drone User Group
• IrixMedia LLC-Custom UAV Engineering & Research
Company
Data Output Requirements of Multi-Rotor UAS:
• Current and voltage for each motor
• Accelerometer and position data
• Microcontroller output log
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Agenda
• Context
• Gap Analysis
• Stakeholder Analysis
• Problem / Need / Vision
• Requirements
• Decision-Support Tool
• DoE-Validation
• Project Management
52
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Work Breakdown Structure
DST-SPDA
MANAGEMENT
Design
CONOPS
Requirements
Simulation
Analysis
Deliverables
Group Meeting
Stakeholders
Solution
Context
Originating
Power
Consumption
Model
Sensitivity
Initial Plan
Sponsor Meeting
Context
Alternatives
Problem
Statement
Functional
Dynamic Models
Utility/Cost
Final Plan
Project Schedule
Problem
Statement
Risks
Need Statement
Performance
Monte Carlo
Trade off
Final Proposal
Weekly
Accomplishment
Gathered
Statistics
Mitigation
Stakeholder
Analysis
Derived
Model
Mission
Requirements
Budget
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Research
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Final Presentation
Conferences
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Project Plan
54
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
55
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Risk Analysis
56
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Mitigation Plan
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Budget
Planned Value vs Actual Cost vs Earned Value
$90,000.00
$80,000.00
$70,000.00
$60,000.00
$50,000.00
PV
AC
$40,000.00
EV
$30,000.00
$20,000.00
$10,000.00
$Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10Week 11Week 12Week 13
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Budget
Planned Value vs PV Worst Case vs PV Best Case vs Actual
Cost
$90,000.00
$80,000.00
$70,000.00
$60,000.00
PV
$50,000.00
PVWC
PVBC
$40,000.00
AC
$30,000.00
$20,000.00
$10,000.00
$Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10Week 11Week 12Week 13
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Budget
CPI vs SPI
1.20
1.00
0.80
CPI
0.60
SPI
0.40
0.20
0.00
Week 1
60
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Decision Support Tool for Designing SPDAV
Questions?
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Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Backup Slides
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Limitations
Induced Velocity at Different Working States
Source: Leishman, Principles of Helicopter Aerodynamics, 2002
Momentum Theory: Forward Flight
Conservation of Mass
Final Equations
Source: Leishman, Principles of Helicopter Aerodynamics, 2002
MT - Coaxial Rotors
Conservation of Mass
Source: Leishman, Aerodynamic Optimization of a Coaxial Prorotor, 2002
Solving for Inflow Ratio
Thrust Coefficients
Solved for Inflow Ratio
Source: Martinez, Modelling of the Flight Dynamic of a Quadrotor Helicopter, 2007
Controller Design
Source: Hartman, Quadrotor Control Simulation, 2014
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