Design of a Human Factors Procedure Analysis Tool (PAT) for FAA Certification Process
Heather Johnson Houda Kerkoub
Shaida Latifi
Mumtahina Mahmud
Alexis Nittoli
System Engineering & Operations Research, George Mason University
Context
Approach
Gap Analysis
Flight
demand
increase
1 From a Procedure…
Initial Approach Procedure
Problem
Air traffic
modernization
Program
(NextGEN)
New devices
to be installed
on aircraft
More devices
to be certified
Capacity for
flights is
constant
Opportunity for
improved
certification process
• Federal Aviation Regulations are now requiring all functions to be evaluated. If certification
process remains constant, it will be expensive and time consuming.
• Current Certification Process is performed by a limited number of Human Factors
Inspectors and Designated Engineering Representatives. These inspectors lack objective
and quantifiable means to evaluate the devices.
• Current process is paper based, manual, and lacks cockpit interaction.
• There is an increasing amount of operational improvements needed to be certified. A gap is
produced when the the number of years it takes to certify all new devices, takes longer than
the number of years available for certification.
Procedure
•
Task
•
Operator
Action
•
•
Task Specification Language
Used to decompose tasks within a Standard
Operating Procedure into Operator Actions
Each Operator Action Category is mapped to a
statistical distribution  input to the
simulation.
The output of the simulation shows a
distribution of time of multiple operators
performing the task
The probability of Failure to Complete the Task
is a decision support tool for certification
2 Create a Sequence Diagram
3 Perform a Monte Carlo Simulation
𝟏. 𝟕𝟓 ∗ # 𝒐𝒇 𝑶𝑰𝒔
GAP
Accidents 
human errors
as main factors
New regulation
(FAR25.1302)
 include human
factors in device
certification
Requirement:
analysis of
ALL tasks and
functions
Additional
work
for FAA Human
Factors
inspectors
Monte Carlo Simulation
Histogram
Number of
available FAA
Human Factors
inspectors
constant
Operator Action
Need
A Procedure Analysis Tool is needed to improve the certification process by
applying an objective, efficient, cost effective, and accurate test.
Business Case
Example Procedure
Prototype
Cost for Procedure Analysis Tool
Cost for Means of Compliance (MOC)
𝑪𝑻𝒓𝒂𝒊𝒏𝒊𝒏𝒈 = 𝑪𝒕𝒓𝒂𝒊𝒏𝒆𝒓 + 𝑪𝒄𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒔𝒆 ∗ 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒕𝒓𝒂𝒊𝒏𝒆𝒆𝒔 = $𝟔𝟎𝟎 + $𝟏, 𝟑𝟎𝟎 ∗ 𝟑 = $𝟒, 𝟓𝟎𝟎
Monte Carlo Simulation will show a
distribution of operators performing the Hold
at Present Postion
Prototype models a perceptual, cognitive, and motor
processes to simulate Time to Complete the Task (TCT)
𝑪𝒕𝒓𝒂𝒊𝒏𝒆𝒓 = 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒔 ∗ 𝑪𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒓 = 𝟐𝟎𝒉𝒓𝒔 ∗ $𝟑𝟎𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒓 = $𝟔𝟎𝟎
𝑪𝒑𝒓𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕𝑴𝒂𝒊𝒏𝒕 = 𝑪𝒅𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒍𝒐𝒑𝒆𝒓/𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒓 ∗ 𝑯𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓 = $𝟐𝟕𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒓 ∗ 𝟏𝟐𝟎 𝒉𝒓𝒔 = $𝟑, 𝟐𝟒𝟎
𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓
Time to Complete the Task
𝑪𝑹𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒘𝒂𝒍 = 𝑪𝒑𝒓𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕𝑴𝒂𝒊𝒏𝒕 ∗ 𝑴𝒖𝒍𝒕𝒊𝒑𝒍𝒊𝒆𝒓𝑶𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒉𝒆𝒂𝒅 = $𝟑, 𝟐𝟎𝟎 ∗ 𝟐. 𝟒 = $𝟕, 𝟔𝟓𝟎
Year 1:
𝑪𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒑𝒂𝒏𝒚𝒚𝟏 = 𝑪𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒅 + 𝑪𝑻𝒓𝒂𝒊𝒏𝒊𝒏𝒈 + 𝑪𝑹𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒘𝒂𝒍 = $𝟏𝟎𝟖, 𝟎𝟎𝟎 + $𝟒, 𝟓𝟎𝟎 = $𝟏𝟏𝟐, 𝟓𝟎𝟎
Year 2:
𝑪𝑪𝒐𝒎𝒑𝒂𝒏𝒚𝒚𝟐 = 𝑪𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒑𝒂𝒏𝒚𝒚𝟏 + 𝑪𝑹𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒘𝒂𝒍 = $𝟏𝟏𝟐, 𝟓𝟎𝟎 + $𝟕, 𝟔𝟓𝟎 = $𝟏𝟐𝟎, 𝟎𝟎𝟎
Number of operators
performing the Task
Year 5:
Monte Carlo Simulation of Hold at Present
Position Task
Year 10:
𝑪𝑪𝒐𝒎𝒑𝒂𝒏𝒚𝒚𝟓 = 𝑪𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒑𝒂𝒏𝒚𝒚𝟏 + 𝟓 𝑪𝑹𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒘𝒂𝒍 = $𝟏𝟏𝟐, 𝟓𝟎𝟎 + $𝟑𝟖, 𝟎𝟎𝟎 = $𝟏𝟓𝟎, 𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝑪𝑪𝒐𝒎𝒑𝒂𝒏𝒚𝒚𝟏𝟎 = 𝑪𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒑𝒂𝒏𝒚𝒚𝟏 + 𝟏𝟎 𝑪𝑹𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒘𝒂𝒍 = $𝟏𝟏𝟐, 𝟓𝟎𝟎 + $𝟖𝟎, 𝟎𝟎𝟎 = $𝟏𝟗𝟐, 𝟎𝟎𝟎
Savings in Cost
Cumulative Hours
PAT
2500000
Cumulative
Current System
Cost/Year
$250,000,000.00
$200,000,000.00
2000000
Cumulative Hours
Current System
1500000
1000000
500000
$150,000,000.00
$100,000,000.00
Cumulative
Alternative
Cost/OI per Year
$50,000,000.00
$0.00
0
Years
Time to Complete
the Task [sec]
$300,000,000.00
Cost in Millions
Time to Complete Task
3000000
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2029
Human Factors
Metrics Database
Perception, Cognition,
Motor
Probability of failure to
complete the task
Number hours saved
Savings in Time
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2029
Perform a Procedure
(SOP)
Replication
Standard
Operating
Procedures
(SOP)
Years