Air Travel at the Edge of Chaos
George L. Donohue, Ph.D.
Professor Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Director of the Center for Air Transportation Systems Research
Volgenau School of Information Technology and Engineering
NASA Ames Director’s Forum November 16 , 2007
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH
© George L. Donohue 2007
Outline
• How Bad and widespread is the Problem
• What Has Changed Since 1947
• Passenger QOS
• Economic Impact
• What are the Underlying Causes
• Too Many Scheduled Flights into Too Few Runways
• Why the Airlines cannot fix the Problem Themselves
• Prisoners Dilemma and Curse of the Commons
• Safety is the Underlying Capacity Constraint
• Current Safety Trends
• Airport Arrival Time Slot Auctions
• High Payoff Research Topics
• NEXTGEN ATM system
2
CATSR
What has Changed since 1947?
•Transonic vs. Subsonic Aircraft
•40,000 ft vs. 20,000 ft Altitude
•Avionics:
• Flight Management Systems
• Required Navigation Perf.
0.1nm
• Required Time of Arrival
• Traffic Collision Avoidance
System – On the Aircraft!
• AOC Data Links
• Zero Visibility Landing
Systems
•ATC radar Separation
•WHAT HAS NOT CHANGED
• Air Traffic Controllers
talking to Pilots using WW II
AM Radio Technology
3
CATSR
Some Little Known Facts
•Modern Jet Aircraft “Gate-to-Gate”
Travel Time is the Same or Longer
than Propeller aircraft (DC-6 circa
1947) for many routes in NE Triangle
• Typical Jet Aircraft is 70%
Faster and fly's 80% Higher
•Jet Aircraft can fly Over most bad
weather
•Modern Commercial Jet Aircraft can
land in very low visibility
•Airport Congestion Causes Most
ATC Delays and Airline Schedule
Padding Masks Real “Gate-to-Gate”
Delay
4
CATSR
Overscheduled Airports are the Problem:
CATSR
Average Delay per Flight
Ordered by Arrival Delay at Outbound Destination. (minute)
[Ning Xu GMU 2007]
Airport Delay
40.0
Early-arrival Gap
Inbound Delay
30.0
Airborne Delay
Arrival Delay at Outbound Dest.
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
34 OEP Airport
Summer 2005 at 34 OEP Airports
5
SAN
SLC
PDX
LAX
SFO
PHX
CVG
STL
MDW
LAS
PIT
CLE
DEN
TPA
SEA
IAH
BWI
DCA
MCO
BOS
MEM
LGA
FLL
CLT
IAD
DFW
DTW
EWR
MIA
ORD
MSP
PHL
JFK
-20.0
ATL
Delays per Flight (minute)
35.0
Delay Incurred at Major Airports
Propagate Network Wide (Summer 2005)
CATSR
Total Delay Ordered by Arrival Delay at Outbound Destination. (minute)
20,000 Flight Hours
1450000
850000
Airport Delay
Early-arrival Gap
Inbound Delay
Airborne Delay
650000
Arrival Delay at Outbound Dest.
1050000
450000
250000
50000
-150000
-350000
34 OEP Airport
6
[Ning Xu GMU 2007]
PDX
MEM
SAN
SLC
STL
PIT
TPA
SFO
MDW
CLE
CVG
FLL
SEA
BWI
LAS
LAX
MIA
PHX
DCA
MCO
CLT
IAD
IAH
LGA
JFK
BOS
DEN
DTW
MSP
PHL
EWR
DFW
ORD
-550000
ATL
Total Delays (minute)
1250000
NYNJ comparison to Comparable
European Airports
Airport
Frankfurt, Gr (FRA)
London, UK (LHR)
Newark (EWR)
Amsterdam, NL (AMS)
New York Laguardia (LGA)
Munich (MUC)
New York Kennedy (JFK)
Madrid, Sp (MAD)
Total
Movements
2005
490,147
477,884
437,402
420,736
404,853
398,838
<353,000
415,677
Data taken from ACI-NA,
EC PR2006 and FAA ASPM
7
2000
458,731
466,815
450,187
432,480
384,554
<384,000
<384,000
Total
Passengers
2005
52,219,412
67,915,403
33,999,990
44,163,098
<29,000,000
<29,000,000
41,885,104
41,940,059
2000
49,360,630
64,606,826
34,188,468
39,606,925
<28,000,000
32,856,220
32,893,190
CATSR
Average Delays
Minutes
2006
2.7
3
28.8
0.7
23.4
1.8
24.3
1.8
Air Transportation System (ATS) is a CAS
with 6 Interacting Network Layers
•The ATS is a Public - Private Partnership with
conflicting objective functions:
•Public – Commerce and safety; interest groups
•Private – Profit maximization
Passenger/Cargo Layer (Delays, Cancellations)
Airline Layer (Routes, Schedules, A/C size)
TSA/FAA Layer (ATC Radar, Radios, Ctr’s, Unions)
Weather Layer (Thunderstorms, Ice Storms)
Physical Layer (i.e. Cities, Airports, Demographics)
Government Regulatory Control Layer
8
CATSR
Air Transportation System is Designed
to Move Passengers and Cargo
Passenger Tier Performance = f (Vehicle Tier Performance, Passenger
Factors i.e. Aircraft Gauge, Load Factor, Cancellations)
9
CATSR
Passenger Total Delay – Airports
•
•
10 of the OEP-35 airports Æ 50% Total EPTD
some airports significantly impact Passenger Delay more than
others (e.g. ORD, ATL, DFW and MCO)
50%
Close Network of OEP35 Airport in 2004
10
CATSR
200 Routes generate
50% of Total Passenger Delay
•
•
17% of the 1044 routes between OEP-35 airports Æ 50% Total EPTD
LGA, JFK, EWR, PHL connected Routes Æ 11 out of top 20 routes
50%
Close Network of OEP35 Airport in 2004
11
CATSR
Top 20 Worst Airports in the US:
Passenger Quality of Service Metric
2004
Year
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
12
Airports
ORD
EWR
LGA
PHL
ATL
MIA
FLL
MCO
DFW
LAS
BOS
SFO
IAD
JFK
CLE
SEA
TPA
STL
PDX
BWI
Prob. Of
PaxDelay
>45 min
14%
14%
13%
12%
11%
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
8%
8%
8%
8%
8%
2005
Prob. Of
PaxDelay
Airports >45 min
18%
EWR
17%
LGA
14%
ATL
13%
PHL
13%
BOS
12%
ORD
12%
FLL
12%
JFK
11%
MIA
11%
SFO
10%
SEA
10%
IAD
10%
TPA
10%
MCO
9%
BWI
9%
PIT
9%
PDX
9%
DTW
9%
LAS
9%
DCA
2006
Airports
ORD
EWR
LGA
PHL
JFK
IAD
MIA
ATL
MDW
DTW
DFW
BOS
DEN
CLT
IAH
CLE
PIT
DCA
MEM
SFO
Prob. Of
PaxDelay
>45 min
17%
16%
15%
15%
14%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
11%
11%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
CATSR
Average of 2004 to 2006
Airports
EWR
LGA
ORD
PHL
ATL
JFK
BOS
MIA
FLL
IAD
DFW
SFO
DTW
MCO
LAS
CLE
PIT
SEA
MDW
DCA
Prob. Of
PaxDelay >45
min
16%
15%
15%
13%
12%
11%
11%
11%
10%
10%
10%
10%
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
9%
D. Wang, GMU PhD. In Progress
Many Highly Congested Airports can Shift
Passengers to other Large Airports
Connecting
Airport
Passengers
%
Chicago O'Hare
59
Newark NJ
32
NY LaGuardia
8
NY JFK
40
Philadelphia
38
Atlanta
66
Boston
15
Miami
55
Washington Dulles
53
Dallas/Fort Worth
60
13
FAA 2006 NPIAS
CATSR
Airline Load Factors are Increasing
Percent Aircraft Seats Occupied (Average)
90
Load Factor
(Anticipated)
85
80
Load Factor ATA
Historical Data
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
1960
1970
1980
1990
Year
14
2000
2010
CATSR
GMU Model Projects Passenger Delays to Greatly
Exceed 2000 delays by 2010
Total Passenger Delays
160
Delayed Flights
Cancelled Flights
Poly. (Delayed Flights)
Poly. (Cancelled Flights)
Hours (millions)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Year
15
D. Wang 2007
CATSR
Annual Passenger Enplanements Predicted to be
Lost: FAA Forecast to 2025
CATSR
Annual Projected Enplanements Foregone
Because of Airport Capacity Constraints
ORD
20
JFK
2025
2015
15
2005
EWR
10
LGA
Airports
STL
TPA
SLC
SEA
SFO
PIT
SAN
PHL
PHX
PDX
ORD
MIA
MSP
MEM
MCO
MDW
LAX
LGA
LAS
IAH
JFK
IAD
FLL
HNL
DTW
EWR
DEN
DFW
DCA
CLT
CVG
BWI
CLE
ATL
5
0
16
Optimistic: All
Planned Airport
Improvements
Occur
All available landing slots fully
utilized regardless of congestion
25
BOS
Annual Enplanements Lost (Millions)
30
FAA 2005 TAF & 2004 Benchmark
Estimated Annual Cost to US (Lost Consumer Surplus,
2005$) due to Expected Airport Capacity Limitations
Annual Cost to US Economy ($B)
$25
$20
$15
$10
--FAA Assumptions on
Growth in Airport
Operations
--Boeing Passenger
Growth Assumptions:
3.6% per year
--Aircraft Upgage: 5% in
2015, 10% in 2025
CY2015, All A/P
Improvements
CY2015, No A/P
Improvements
Assumes:
$200/segment ticket
Price Elasticity = -1
CY2025, All A/P
Improvements
$5
CY2025, No A/P
Improvements
$0
100%
95%
90%
85%
Usable NAS Capacity (%)
17
80%
Shaver 2007
CATSR
Minimum Congestion Cost is a function of NEXTGEN
Technology Effectiveness and Network Efficiency
Annual Congestion Cost ($B)
$20
Caution: Some Costs Not Included
Sum of Costs ($B)
$15
Costs Resulting from Passenger
Delays and Flight Cancellations
$10
$5
Consumer Surplus Costs Resulting
From Limiting Airport Slots
$0
0.8
0.85
0.9
Congestion Factor
18
0.95
1
CATSR
Outline
• How Bad and widespread is the Problem
• What Has Changed Since 1947
• Passenger QOS
• Economic Impact
• What are the Underlying Causes
• Too Many Scheduled Flights into Too Few Runways
• Why the Airlines cannot fix the Problem Themselves
• Prisoners Dilemma and Curse of the Commons
• Safety is the Underlying Capacity Constraint
• Current Safety Trends
• Airport Arrival Time Slot Auctions
• High Payoff Research Topics
• NEXTGEN ATM system
19
CATSR
Jet Blue and Delta AL are Competing for the JFK Market:
Passengers Pay the Price in Flight Delays and Cancellations
JFK Summer 2007 Departures
FAA Announced Departure Rate
(weekday AVG +/- 2)
Airline's Scheduled Departures
Flight Departures per 15 Minure Epoch
25
20
15
10
5
0
0
5 AM
20
10 40
AM
3 PM
60
8 PM
80
24 Hours in 15 min. Epochs
20
Midnight
100
120
CATSR
Reduction in Average Number of Aircraft Seats
by Airport – All Departures
200
180
160
-15.5%
140
120
-12.7%
-0.1%
-6.8%
-11.4%
9.9%
-18.9%
100
-4.2%
-10.4%
80
60
40
20
0
ATL
DFW
EWR
IAD
IAH
July 2002
21
JFK
July 2007
LGA
ORD
PHL
Dorothy Robyn
The Brattle Group
CATSR
JFK Average Delay Profile (2006)
Delay per Flight (minutes)
JFK
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
0
5
10
15
Time of Day (hour)
22
20
CATSR
New York LaGuardia Airport:
Case Study of a Slot Controlled Airport
Data (2005):
• Throughput:
•
•
•
•
23
404,853 flights/yr
Average flight delay:
38 min
Revenue passengers:
26,671,787
Average aircraft size:
96 passenger
Average inter-city fare:
$133
CATSR
NYNJ Airport with Current Slot Controls:
LGA 2004 – 2006 (DOT Data)
Calculated Capacity (Today) and Actual Throughput
LGA
Optimum Rate
80
60
Calculated Capacity - Today
60
39,39
40
Arrivals per Hour
Delay per Flight (minutes)
CATSR
20
0
Facility Reported Rate - LGA
(arrivals, departures per hr)
40
Infrequent
20
-20
-40
Most Frequent
Each symbol represents actual traffic
during a single hour
0
5
10
15
0
20
0
Time of Day (hour)
20
40
60
Departures per Hour
Marginal Rate
IFR Rate
60
60
37,37
Arrivals per Hour
Arrivals per Hour
37,37
40
20
0
24
40
20
0
0
20
40
Departures per Hour
60
0
20
40
Departures per Hour
60
Current Government Rules at LGA
Lead to Poor Use of Runway Resources
• Inefficient use of
resources
CATSR
Airports win
Airlines win
(High Load
Factor/Large
Aircraft)
Airports lose
Airlines lose
(Low load
factor/Small
Aircraft)
25
Outline
• How Bad and widespread is the Problem
• What Has Changed Since 1947
• Passenger QOS
• Economic Impact
• What are the Underlying Causes
• Too Many Scheduled Flights into Too Few Runways
• Why the Airlines cannot fix the Problem Themselves
• Prisoners Dilemma and Curse of the Commons
• Safety is the Underlying Capacity Constraint
• Current Safety Trends
• Airport Arrival Time Slot Auctions
• High Payoff Research Topics
• NEXTGEN ATM system
26
CATSR
Why do the Airlines Schedule beyond the Maximum Safe
RW Capacity with Flights that Loose Revenue?
CATSR
• There is no government regulation to limit schedules for
safety or compensate passengers for delays and
cancellations
• These were errors in the 1978 Deregulation Act
• Passenger surveys indicate that frequency and price are
the most desirable characteristics of a flight
• Passengers are not told of consequences of schedule to
travel predictability
• If any one airline decided to offer rational schedules, their
competition will offer more frequency to capture market
share
• Thus, still producing delays and cancellations for all
• In Game Theory, this is called the Prisoner’s Dilemma
27
Outline
• How Bad and widespread is the Problem
• What Has Changed Since 1947
• Passenger QOS
• Economic Impact
• What are the Underlying Causes
• Too Many Scheduled Flights into Too Few Runways
• Why the Airlines cannot fix the Problem Themselves
• Prisoners Dilemma and Curse of the Commons
• Safety is the Underlying Capacity Constraint
• Current Safety Trends
• Airport Arrival Time Slot Auctions
• High Payoff Research Topics
• NEXTGEN ATM system
28
CATSR
Part 121 (Scheduled Commercial)
Accident Rates are Increasing
2.5
2
y = 0.0533x + 1.0647
1.5
1
0.5
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
20
99
19
98
19
97
19
19
19
29
96
0
95
c ount per million operations
My filtered
part-121
Analysis
from Zohreh
Nazeri,accidents
PhD GMU 2007
CATSR
Trends for Incidents Associated with Accidents
Trends of the factors in incident databases
• Pilot factors decreasing
• Aircraft factors slowly decreasing
• ATC factors increasing
30
800
600
200
0
ATC incidents in FAA/OED data, Terminal
40
30
y = 0.0824x + 29.716
10
0
count per million
operations
40
20
y = -3.8007x + 683.79
400
50
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
count per million operations
ATC primary factors in ASRS reports
Aircraft primary factors in ASRS reports
1000
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
y = -7.1868x + 123.33
PhD GMU 2007
count per million operations
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
count per million operations
Pilot primary factors in ASRS reports
Analysis from Zohreh Nazeri,
35
30
25
20
y = 1.4581x + 18.118
15
10
5
0
95
96
97
98
99
00
;01
02
03
04
CATSR
ATC factors – Communication Errors
CATSR
Top complexity factors associated with ATC factors:
• number of aircraft in airspace
• runway configuration
-- airspace design
-- controller experience
% commerrors
Top-10 traf fic complexity f actors associated w ith
communcation errors
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
ot
he
r
b
#a lan
k
/c
,o
th
er
ai
rs
pa
ce
,# #
a/ a/
c, c
#a
ai
ot
/c
r
he
, e spa
r
xp ce
er
,o
ie
nc the
rw
e, r
y
ot
co
he
nf
r
ig
,o
th
er
#a ai
/c rsp
,r
w ace
y
co
nf
ig
0.00%
Analysis from Zohreh Nazeri,
PhD GMU 2007
These factors will get worse over time:
• air transportation is projected to grow for the next 10 years
31
• majority of controllers will retire within next few years
Aircraft factors
CATSR
“Flight Control System” problems growing
Other aircraft factors decreasing
Aircraft flight control system problems
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
20
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
y = 0.4037x - 0.2704
19
ar
i ng
nd
c ount per m illion operations
so
r
La
As
se
m
Ge
bly
in g
W
es
pr
m
Co
ion
ll is
Co
Sy
s te
an
Av
o id
lon
Py
ll e
/
ce
Na
ce
ac
hm
att
tr o
on
tC
igh
Fl
m
t
en
m
ys
te
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
-0.7
lS
tren d lin e slo p
Growth of aircraft problems in SDRS data
Analysis from Zohreh Nazeri, PhD GMU 2007
32
Safety at Principle Network Nodes
(i.e. Airports) is the Constraint
CATSR
• Aircraft Safety Separation Time over the
Runway Threshold sets the ATS capacity
limits
• Critical Technical Parameters that Define
Network Capacity:
•
•
•
•
33
Runway Occupancy Time (ROT)
Landing Aircraft Inter-Arrival Time (IAT)
Capmax = 90 sec IAT at 10-3 PSRO = 40 Arr/RW/Hr
Queuing Delay Onset at ~ 80% = 32 Arr/RW/Hr
limit for Predictable Performance
Queuing Delays set the Practical Capacity
Limitation set by Safety Separation Standards
CATSR
THEORETICAL QUEUEING DELAY
70.00
60.00
DELAY ( Minutes )
•Lack of Schedule
Synchronization
and 90 second
IAT generate
Queuing Delays
above about 80%
of Maximum
Runway Capacity
Cancellations begin
50.00
40.00
~ K[rho/(1-rho)]
30.00
20.00
32 Arr/RW/Hr
10.00
0.00
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
DEMAND / MAX. CAPACITY
34
0.8
0.9
1
Data Analysis Process to Estimate:
IAT, IAD and ROT pdf’s
Airplane i
Threshold
Airplane i+1
Aircraft Type
Heavy
Large
Large
Small
Runway
Threshold
10:23:14
10:24:28
10:26:16
10:28:32
Leave Runway
10:24:04
10:25:13
10:27:12
10:29:28
...
...
...
Col. Clint Haynie, USA PhD., 2002
35
Yue Xie, PhD. 2005
CATSR
ROT vs. IAT to find Simultaneous Runway
Occupancy (SRO) Probability: est to be ~ 2 / 1000 CATSR
Runway
Occupancy
Time
(sec)
SRO
Region
Inter-Arrival Time (sec)
36
•Detroit Metropolitan Airport (DTW)
• Freq (IAT < ROT) ~= 0.0016 in peak periods and
0.0007 overall (including non-peak periods - 1870 total samples)
• IMC: 1 / 669= 0.0015 in peak periods
• Correlation coefficient = 0.15
[Babak, Shortle and Sherry, 2006]
It does Not Have to Be this Way
CATSR
Runway
Occupancy
Time
(sec)
New
Avionics &
Procedures
Existing Avionics
and Slot Controls
Inter-Arrival Time (sec)
37
Changes in FAA Procedures, Airport Slot
Controls and New Avionics Will Improve
BOTH Safety and Capacity
Summary on Capacity
CATSR
• 40 Arrival per Runway per Hour is current Safety
Maximum
• 32 Arrivals per Runway per Hour is ONSET of
Queuing Delays
• Using Current (OLD) Technology
• Using Current (OUTDATED) ATC Procedures
• FAA has Refused to Mandate New Technology
and Procedures to Reduce the Variability in IAT
to Increase BOTH Safety and Capacity
38
Calculated Capacity (Today) and Actual Throughput
Optimum Rate
CATSR
80
Calculated Capacity - Today
Facility Reported Rate - EWR
(arrivals, departures per hr)
Arrivals per Hour
42, 42
60
40
Infrequent
Most Frequent
20
Each symbol represents actual
traffic during a single hour
0
0
20
40
60
80
Capacity Increase:
Closer Spacing & better
Schedule Synchronization
Departures per Hour
Marginal Rate
IFR Rate
80
60
Arrivals per Hour
Arrivals per Hour
80
40, 40
40
20
60
33, 33
40
EWR :
DoT/FAA
20
0
0
0
39
All Weather
20
40
60
Departures per Hour
80
0
20
40
60
Departures per Hour
80
2004 Capacity
Benchmark Report
A Natural DoT – Congressional Question?
Is There an Optimal Allocation of Scarce Runway Resources?
• What would happen if schedules at major
airports were Capped at Safe, Predictable
Runway Capacity and allocated by a Market
mechanism?
40
• What markets would be served?
• How would airline schedules change?
– Frequency
– Equipment (#seats per aircraft)
• How would passenger demand change?
– At airport
– On routes
• How would airfares change?
– What would happen to airline profit margins?
• How would airport and network delays be altered?
CATSR
Modeling Approach and Assumptions
• Port Authority of NY&NJ has the ability to
Determine and Set an Optimum Schedule to:
• Operate at Competitive Profit Margins
• Maximize Passenger Throughput
• Ensure an Airline Operating Profit (Max, 90%,80%)
• All Current Origin and Destination Markets are
Considered
• 67 Scheduled Daily Serviced Markets
• Current Market Price Elasticity Remains
Constant
41
CATSR
NY LGA Has 67 Daily Markets
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CATSR
Airline Competitive Scheduling:
Modeling Framework
Auction IMC
Rate:
32 Slots/Hr
Demand-Price Elasticity
$
ASPM, BTS
databases
S1
S2
D
#
Network Flow
Optimization Problem
Flight schedules
Fleet mix
Average fare
Flight delays
Delay Network
Simulation
43
(Le, 2006)
CATSR
Model Estimate of Airline Response to an All
Weather Predictable Schedule Restriction
CATSR
Estimate of Aircraft Up-Gauging
300
•20 % Fewer
Scheduled Flights
Current Fleet Allocation - 1010 Flts
90% Optimum Fleet Allocation - 806 Flts
Number of Daily Flights
250
•Increased Passenger
Throughput
200
150
•Same Airfares
100
•Loss of 3
Unprofitable Markets
50
•70% Less Delay
0
19 to 37 44 to 50 69 to 77
88 to
110
117 to
133
138 to
158
Aircraft Seating Capacity
44
166 to
181
194 to
225
Outline
• How Bad and widespread is the Problem
• What Has Changed Since 1947
• Passenger QOS
• Economic Impact
• What are the Underlying Causes
• Too Many Scheduled Flights into Too Few Runways
• Why the Airlines cannot fix the Problem Themselves
• Prisoners Dilemma and Curse of the Commons
• Safety is the Underlying Capacity Constraint
• Current Safety Trends
• Airport Arrival Time Slot Auctions
• High Payoff Research Topics
• NEXTGEN ATM system
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CATSR
The Predicted Growth in Aviation Demand is based on
Passenger Demand NOT Aircraft Operations
CATSR
• Larger Aircraft will be required to meet X2 or X3 demand
• Business Jet and VLJ Air Taxi Service will emerge to
compete with Commercial aviation due to current System
Failure
• May not be able to put the Geni back in the Bottle
• Environmental Implications?
• New Aircraft (e.g. B 787) should be Environmentally
Friendly (Emissions/passenger/mi.?)
• US airlines are not currently ordering them due to poor financial
position
• New Public Policy will be needed to Deal with these
Complex Adaptive System Problems
• NEXTGEN System not addressing these issues
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IS NGATS addressing the Problem?
• ADS-B (out), 4-D trajectories, RNP-0.1
• Good but NOT ENOUGH
• Aircraft Gauge, Schedule Synchronization and
Network Load Balancing will Be Required
• Annual Combinatorial Clock Slot Auctions ?
• Aircraft Separation in Terminal Airspace and on
the Runways MUST be REDUCED by X3!
• Closely Spaced, Fully-coupled Autopilot Formation
Landings with 2 – Lane Runways?
• Closely Spaced Airports need to be Cross-linked
with Runway Independent Air Transport
• New Generation of Heavy Lift Helicopters?
47
CATSR
Center for Air Transportation System Research
Publications and Information
• http://catsr.ite.gmu.edu
– Other Useful Web Sites
• http://mytravelrights.com
• http://gao.gov
• http://www.airconsumer.ost.dot.gov
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CATSR