Wall Street Journal
12-07-07
Democratic Turnout Is Big Iowa Variable
By JOHN HARWOOD
DEMOCRATIC TURNOUT LOOMS as key Iowa variable.
Despite polls showing Obama and Clinton leading Democratic race, one adviser
to the former first lady says Edwards's support with veteran caucus-goers gives
him edge for now. But Des Moines Register sage David Yepsen warns Edwards
would suffer if Obama and Clinton succeed in attracting college students and
older women who are novices to caucus process.
"Expanding the universe...is a difficult thing to do," notes Edwards strategist Joe
Trippi, who advised Howard Dean four years ago. The 2004 caucuses set record
with 124,000 participants, but an Iowa State University poll suggests Jan. 3
contest could draw as many as 175,000.
Team Clinton seeks caucus goodwill by deploying its organization for Christmas
season service project.
REPUBLICAN FRONT-RUNNERS seek post-Iowa insurance policies.
Despite Huckabee's Iowa surge, Giuliani continues to lead in Michigan's Jan. 15
contest. "Electability and leadership seem to be carrying the day," says one top
Michigan Republican.
Romney's Mormon faith, subject of his speech in Texas yesterday, matters less
there in light of his late father's service as governor four decades ago. Florida
primary two weeks later represents critical test of Giuliani's staying power; his
standing at around 30% there exceeds his support in any contest before Feb. 5.
TRADE VIES WITH IMMIGRATION as hot-button issue in presidential race.
Democratic hopeful Richardson, who rounded up votes for the North American
Free Trade Agreement as House leader during Clinton administration, emerges
as critic. Current House members Phil Hare of Illinois and Michael Michaud of
Maine turn up heat on White House hopefuls with legislation requiring U.S. to pull
out of Nafta if concerns about job losses and other issues aren't addressed.
After escalating their rhetoric against illegal immigration, Republican candidates
face different pressures from weekend debate in Miami sponsored by Spanishlanguage network Univision. Three months after Republicans shunned debate
moderated by African-American broadcaster Tavis Smiley, it will be the first
Republican debate before a predominantly minority audience.
Tancredo of Colorado, who has helped set tough tone of the party's immigration
debate so far, won't attend.
TOUGHER TICKET: Treasury Secretary Paulson trims guest list for next week's
economic talks in China, including just six Cabinet-level officials and not including
either the Labor or Transportation secretaries. "You can have a better dialogue if
you have fewer people interacting at the table," says a senior Treasury official.
YEAR OF THE WOMAN? Emily's List says twice as many Democratic women in
favor of abortion rights will be on the ballot in 2008 as in 2006; such candidates
have already won two of three special elections this year. Emily's List, backing
Clinton for president, launches online campaign in Iowa at www.yougogirl.com.
HOW LENIENT? Activists say U.S. Sentencing Commission, which creates
guidelines judges use for federal defendants, appears likely to make retroactive
its new, less strict guidelines for crack-cocaine crimes. Justice Department
opposes the move, which could affect 19,000 inmates.
SPENDING PUSH: Despite calls in both parties for fiscal restraint, road-builders
group launches campaign to build support for massive increase in infrastructure
spending. Effort, designed to prevent entitlement programs from soaking up all
excess cash, includes ads in Capitol Hill newspapers.
SENATE CONSIDERS COMPROMISE on surveillance legislation.
Senate Democrats next week return to White House proposal to give retroactive
immunity to telecommunications companies that aided the National Security
Agency's warrantless surveillance. That provision is included in bill to update
Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.
Immunity would shield phone companies fighting privacy lawsuits over their role
in NSA program. Moderate Republican Specter of Pennsylvania proposes
compromise that would make federal government the defendant rather than
telecom providers.
But Democratic opposition means tough odds for Arlen Specter's plan, which
Judiciary Committee may send directly to Senate floor.
MINOR MEMOS: Humorist Andy Borowitz, following a report that Iran suspended
nuclear program years ago, reports that "Kim Jong Il kicks Iran out of Axis of
Evil"....John McCain, struggling to repeat his 2000 New Hampshire primary win,
warms up town-hall meeting in Hooksett with Springsteen's "Glory Days."
Write to John Harwood at john.harwood@wsj.com