Des Moines Register
10-29-07
Caucus day falls during winter breaks, affecting students
Some observers see Jan. 3 as a boon to the candidates, while others think it's a
bane.
By JASON CLAYWORTH
REGISTER STAFF WRITER
Iowa's Jan. 3 caucus date is either a gut punch or a shot of adrenaline to
presidential candidates who are courting young voters, depending on whom you
ask.
The date — 11 days earlier than first anticipated and the earliest in state history
— means that most Iowa college students will still be soaking up holiday break
when the caucuses kick into gear.
Some observers believe that's bad news because many of those students have
already registered to vote in the cities where their schools are located and are
less likely to make the effort to caucus once they are home.
But others say the change is a political windfall that will scatter potentially
thousands of young voters into virtually every area of the state, where they can
advocate for their preferred candidate.
"Pretty much all the students will be back in their home communities on that day,
and given the way the caucus works, we think that's a plus for us," said David
Plouffe, the presidential campaign manager for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, a
Democrat.
Because voters are able to register as they enter the caucus events, the need to
change their registration isn't a big roadblock, he added.
Iowa Republicans earlier this month set Jan. 3 as the caucus date because they
said it is necessary to maintain Iowans' first-in-the nation status. Iowa Democratic
Party leaders voted late Sunday to adopt the same date.
Obama, arguably, has more at stake on the caucus date than any other
presidential candidate because his campaign has been among the most
aggressive in courting young voters. The campaign has even targeted high
school students who will be old enough to vote in November 2008.
"I think it's going to dent the 18- to 26-year-old vote," said Bruce Gronbeck,
director of the University of Iowa Center for Media Studies and Political Culture.
"It's certainly going to have an effect, I suspect, on the Obama vote. He's the one
who has packed the campus. He's the one who had the 10,000-person Earth Day
rally," Gronbeck said.
In 2004, 64 percent of the people who participated in the Democratic presidential
caucuses were age 50 or older. In 2000, the figure was 63 percent. In 2000, the
most recent year Iowa's Republican presidential caucuses were held, 41 percent
of GOP caucusgoers were age 65 or older, Iowa Republican Party officials have
said.
Groups like College Republicans and College Democrats won't be on hand to
motivate students in 2008. However, young voters at home during the caucuses
might be more likely to participate as a result of encouragement from elders
rather than peer pressure, said Connie Flanagan, a professor of youth civic
development at Penn State University.
"The caucuses in Iowa are a wonderful format for educating," Flanagan said.
"One could imagine grandparents saying to their grandchildren, 'Come on, just
for tonight, go to this caucus with me, listen to the conversations and put in your
two cents' worth.' I can't see a negative," she said.
Sarah Sunderman, a senior at Iowa State University, said she will drive back
early from her home in Minnesota to take part in the Jan. 3 caucuses. She is one
of about 21,000 out-of-state students who attend Iowa's public universities. As a
member of her school's Democratic student group, she sees the date as a
challenge.
"It's a complex issue, but clearly it's harder when students are dispersed across
the state to make sure they participate," Sunderman said.
Mark Lopez is the research director for the Center for Information and Research
on Civic Learning and Engagement, a group that promotes political engagement
of Americans between the ages of 15 and 25. He is uncertain about how Iowa's
early caucus will affect the youth vote.
"It could go either way. It strikes me that this is a case of 'we'll have to wait to
see,' " Lopez said.
Reporter Jason Clayworth can be reached at (515) 699-7058 or
jclayworth@dmreg.com