Des Moines Register
10-15-07
Caucusgoers greet candidates in person
In a new poll, 25 percent of Iowans expecting to be part of January's party
meetings report such an encounter.
By JONATHAN ROOS
REGISTER STAFF WRITER
If the rest of the world needed evidence that the presidential candidates are
personally auditioning for Iowans, not just waging media campaigns, here it is:
One-fourth of caucus-bound Democrats and Republicans have already met at
least one of the candidates, according to the latest Des Moines Register Iowa
Poll.
There's still plenty of time for the others to get in a handshake, seek an
autograph or ask a question.
With the caucuses three months away, the two packs of presidential contenders
have already totaled more than 500 days of campaigning in the state since the
first of the year.
The Iowa Poll shows that many likely caucus participants are engaged in the
campaign hubbub in a number of other ways:
• More than three-fourths have been contacted by a presidential campaign.
• Forty-three percent have been to a campaign event where a candidate
appeared.
• Sixteen percent have donated money to a candidate.
• Seven percent have been interviewed about the first-in-the-nation caucuses by
the news media.
Poll participant Paul Waddell, 28, of Ankeny has had his picture taken with
Arizona Sen. John McCain and Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback at local campaign
events. He also got former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's autograph at the
Iowa Republican Party's straw poll in Ames. "It's very exciting," said Waddell, a
Romney supporter who will be attending his first caucus.
The Register's scientific poll, taken Oct. 1 to 3, shows that New York Sen. Hillary
Clinton leads at this stage in the Democratic race in Iowa with support from 29
percent of likely caucus participants. Romney holds first place in the Republican
contest, also at 29 percent.
The Iowa Poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Iowans will get even more involved in the pair of races as candidates step up
their campaigning across the state ahead of the caucuses.
For 25 percent of likely Republican caucus participants and 23 percent of likely
Democratic caucusgoers, January will bring their first experience at the party
events, according to the poll.
However, party officials and campaign organizers shouldn't get too excited yet
about the attendance plans of all these newcomers. Roughly one-fourth say
they're definitely going to attend a caucus, while the other three-fourths say they
probably will attend.
It would also be a mistake to assume that most of these newcomers are drawn
from the ranks of young adults.
The poll shows that three in every four likely first-time participants are 35 or
older.
Poll participant Marlys Sharp of Ollie, a 39-year-old mother of two sons, said she
plans to vote for Clinton at her first caucus.
Sharp said that when she was in her 20s her focus "was day to day. Now the
future is very important to me." She's concerned about health care; her mother is
diabetic. And she'd like to see U.S. troops brought home from Iraq.
"I never contemplated my mother being without health insurance. I never
contemplated my sons going to war," said Sharp, who works for an investment
company.
In a continuation of past caucus attendance patterns, Iowans likely to take part in
the upcoming caucuses tend to be older, better educated and more affluent than
the adult population as a whole.
In general, political participation increases with age, said Dianne Bystrom,
director of the Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics at Iowa
State University.
The people who take part in caucuses more closely identify with a political party
and may feel they have more at stake by getting involved, Bystrom said. Older
people are probably more tune in to the economy and pocketbook issues and
may be more willing to commit their time to the caucuses than are younger
voters.
The poll shows that nearly one-half of likely caucusgoers are baby boomers,
falling between the ages of 42 and 61.
On characteristics like age, the two groups of caucus-bound Democrats and
Republicans are similar. But the Iowa Poll shows there is a big gender gap.
Women outnumber men, 62 percent to 38 percent, in the Democratic group. On
the Republican side, men outnumber women, 58 percent to 42 percent.
Men gravitate to the Republican Party because many identify with key party
issues like national security, gun ownership rights and limited government, said
Bystrom, the ISU professor. Many women, on the other hand, identify with issues
featured by the Democratic Party, like health care and education.
"Men tend to want less government and women see the benefits of government
in their life," she said.
Differences between the two groups also show up in the area of religion.
Slightly more than one-half of those in the Republican group consider themselves
"born-again" or fundamentalist Christians. In the Democratic camp, 20 percent
consider themselves fundamentalist Christians.
Earlier caucus date OK, Iowans say
Caucus-bound Iowans appear to be a dedicated group.
In the latest Iowa Poll, more than 80 percent of likely caucus participants say it
will not make any difference to them if the caucuses are moved from January to
December.
Five percent say they would be a lot less likely to attend; 8 percent say they
would be a little less likely to go then.
Actions taken in other states to move up their nomination events have triggered
intense speculation about an earlier start for the caucuses to preserve Iowa's
status as the leadoff state on the presidential calendar. The caucuses were
originally scheduled for Jan. 14 but are expected to take place before then. The
latest speculation centers on early January.
Reporter Jonathan Roos can be reached at (515) 284-8443 or jroos@dmreg.com