Campaigns and Elections
09-28-07
Iowa Seeing Two Democratic Candidates for Every Republican
By - Justin Schardin
A surprising gap has opened over the last month and a half. Democratic
presidential candidates have been coming to Iowa at a much greater rate than
Republicans, but experts were divided as to why.
Since the Aug. 11 Ames Straw Poll, the number of candidate Iowa trips, and
dates and events in state, are all nearly 4-to-1 in favor of Democratic candidates.
Since the Democratic debate at Drake University the following week, Democrats
still hold a more than 2-to-1 lead. Before the events, there had been little
disparity in which party was visiting more.
Candidates may be planning their visits based
on their places in the polls, most of which show
a tight gap between former U.S. Sen. John
Edwards, D-N.C., and U.S. Sens. Hillary
Clinton, D-N.Y., and Barack Obama, D-Ill. on
the Democratic side and former Massachusetts
Gov. Mitt Romney (R) generally holding a
comfortable, if not commanding, lead over
former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani among Republicans.
"You do have a pretty intense three-way race among Hillary, Edwards and
Obama. And Richardson seems to be seeing Iowa as key to a breakthrough,"
said Drake University professor Dennis Goldford. "So in some ways, the
Democrats based upon those numbers seem to see themselves having more at
stake in Iowa...than the Republicans."
Goldford said the relative closeness of the Democratic field "would be a big
factor" in explaining the gap, as would great enthusiasm among Democratic
voter. He added that Romney and Edwards have especially strong incentive to
spend a lot of time in the state.
"Iowa's not make-or-break for Romney, but it's key to his strategy. He wants a
good slingshot effect out of Iowa into New Hampshire," he said. "Edwards is in
even a more precarious position because Edwards doesn't have a New
Hampshire to protect him if he doesn't' do well in Iowa."
“I think that competitiveness is a very important factor,” said Iowa State
University professor Steffen Schmidt. But he added that since statistics show
many more Republicans are willing to change their vote than Democrats, “the
Republicans are missing an opportunity to come in and eventually say, ‘look, if
you don’t like the frontrunners, I’m here and why don’t you give me a try?’”
Schmidt said that the size of a candidate's warchest would explain much of the
discrepancy. "[T]he most important reason is the Democrats have a lot more
money. If you've got the money flowing in, you can afford to spend a lot time in
Iowa, whereas the Republicans essentially have to parse it out more, with the
exception of Romney."
Goldford, on the other hand, doesn't put money high on his factor list, citing the
low relative cost of advertising in the state.
Chuck Laudner, executive
director of the Republican
Party of Iowa, said the
differential has a lot to do with
accidents of schedule.
Republican candidates
"expended a lot of energy and
organization" ahead of the
Straw Poll, he said, and
Democrats have had more big
events to draw their candidates here since then. He also said that the balance
would be tipping back the other way in upcoming months.
But, Laudner added, lately county chairs have been saying to him, "it's time for
the presidential candidates to come back through" the state."
He admitted that Romney's lead in Iowa may also be a factor. "[B]y any measure
Romney's in the lead, and I guess you could kind of say it was his to lose. He's
the prohibitive favorite at this point."
Goldford said, "I don't know that [other Republican candidates] think Romney's
got it sewn up, but he certainly has done well." But he said it's not all about
winning in the state. "Remember, we always say there are three tickets out of
Iowa, which comes from the fact that nobody who's finished less than third has
won the nomination."
Iowa Democratic Party spokesperson Chris Allen thought that the gap "show[ed]
the Democrats are really taking Iowa seriously" as opposed to Republicans.
"Rudy Giuliani hasn't even been in Iowa in September."
He said having the Harkin Steak Fry and Democratic AARP forum in September
helped numbers, but that "even the Lance Armstrong [Cancer Forum] debate,
only two Republicans participated in that."
Both Democratic and Republican campaigns insisted that they were building their
Iowa operations and planning more visits in the coming months.
Since Aug. 20, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson has held the most events in
Iowa with 31. U.S. Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., is next with 26, followed by Edwards
with 22, Obama with 18, Dodd at 14, and Clinton with six.
The six Republican candidates in Iowa during that period were bunched tightly
together. McCain and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee both held nine in
that period, while U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas held eight, as did
Romney and U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado. Former U.S. Sen. Fred
Thompson held seven during the launch of his presidential campaign.