Gazette Online
07-13-07
McCain faces struggle in Iowa
By James Q. Lynch
The Gazette
james.lynch@gazettecommunications.com
The campaign trail has been bumpy for John McCain, but his Iowa campaign
manager doesn't expect him to exit before the Iowa's precinct caucuses.
"Regardless of what others say, I think Sen. McCain will do quite well in Iowa,''
Dave
Roederer said.
The longtime Iowa Republican operative remains optimistic about McCain's
chances of making a good showing in the precinct caucuses despite the
campaign raising less money than anticipated, declining poll numbers, its
decision to skip the Iowa GOP's straw poll in August, the departure of two top
campaign officials and the recent layoff of nearly half of McCain's Iowa staff.
"The fact of the matter is,'' Roederer said, "When John McCain's in front of
voters, he does very well. We always pick up a sizable number of supporters
after he's been out here.''
And McCain will be back in Iowa this month, he said. McCain was scheduled to
be in Iowa this week but had to reschedule because of Senate debate on the
defense appropriations act.
When he does get back to Iowa, campaign watchers predict it will be a steep
climb for McCain to re-establish his campaign.
McCain's campaign "looks like it's imploding,'' said Coe College political science
Professor Bruce Nesmith.
While it may not be fatal at this point -- six months before the January caucuses - in the short term, "this isn't good,'' Nesmith said.
McCain's problems "send a message to potential supporters, both donors and
caucus-goers, this guy is not going to win.''
To some degree, McCain's problems, including his lack of fundraising success,
aren't new, according to Dianne Bystrom, director of Iowa State University's
Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics.
Beginning the race as the front-runner changed McCain's image, she said.
"He's gotten his political niche as a maverick,'' Bystrom said. "And really what's
happened in this campaign is that rather than being the maverick, like he was in
2000, he was presumed to be the front-runner.''
McCain is not the first presidential candidate to hit a few potholes on the
campaign trail.
John Kerry and Al Gore went through rough patches before winning their party's
nomination. In 1980, Ronald Reagan survived a meltdown before making a
comeback and winning the race for the White House.
"There's still a lot of time, but it's hard to figure out how (McCain) does it,'' said
Peverill Squire, a political scientist at the University of Iowa. "The problem is his
campaign has been going backward for long time.''
His problems may be a blessing in disguise, Bystrom said.
"What could come out of it is again the re-establishment of his position as a party
maverick,'' she said.
That's what McCain's new campaign manager, Rick Davis, hopes. In a
fundraising e-mail, he said McCain is embracing the themes that worked for him - briefly -- in his 2000 contest with George W. Bush.
Then, Davis said, "our campaign for honest reform, better government and a
stronger America had resonated with voters across the country, and our
message today is stronger and louder than ever.''
"It's hard to see that working this time, Nesmith said, "but then what he was doing
clearly wasn't working.''
To make the "maverick'' approach work this election cycle, Nesmith said, McCain
would have to attract independents like he did in 2000, "but in 2000 he didn't
come close to winning.''
Plus, Nesmith said, McCain's positions on the Iraq war and immigration aren't
likely to attract much independent support.
It's a case of McCain being "overtaken by history,'' according to ISU political
scientist Steffen Schmidt.
In 2000, McCain ÔÔwas the maverick, independent thinking, straight-shooting
war hero,'' Schmidt said. "People admired him for saying what he thought was
right, and they liked it.''
He's still doing that, but eight years later, McCain is "sticking with his guns on
things that the public generally does not approve of or care about.''
If history is against him, time may be on this side, Nesmith said.
"Maybe two or three months from now, he'll have a better campaign staff and a
better message,'' a skeptical-sounding Nesmith said. "The problem is people
have seen him. He would have to figure out a way to say, 'You looked me over
and didn't support me. Now I have a reason for you to support me.' ''
That's possible in the Iowa caucuses, Roederer said.
"This is Iowa. It takes personal contact,'' he said. "This campaign will rise and fall
on how Sen. McCain communicates to the public.''
Squire agrees. The question is, he said, which John McCain will be back on the
Iowa campaign trail.
"Will it be the testy John McCain or will he be the 'happy warrior' again?'' Squire
wondered.