Politico, DC
05-21-07
Do or die in Ames
By: Roger Simon
The Republican straw poll held in Ames, Iowa, is one of the most deliciously
vulgar events in all presidential politics. I love it.
The Democrats say they ban straw polls because they are a waste of time and
money. In fact, Democrats ban straw polls because Democrats do not know how
to have a good time.
The Democratic message for 2008 is: Iraq, incompetence, Iraq, cronyism, Iraq,
corruption.
The Republican message for 2008 is: Hey, lighten up.
Which is why Ames is so much fun. Ames is about spectacle. Ames is about
theater. Ames is about bribery.
And you can't get a more authentic example of American politics than that.
The Ames straw poll will be held on Aug. 11 this year. The presidential
campaigns will induce people to give up a Saturday afternoon by paying for their
tickets, busing them in, and offering free food, free drinks, free fun rides, free
music, free T-shirts and free body-painting.
The candidates will speak inside the Hilton Coliseum at Iowa State University.
The coliseum can hold about 14,800 people, but thousands more will hang
around outside in the tent village where you can eat, drink, dance and buy stuff.
In 1999, the best-selling item was a postcard depicting Hillary Clinton in a black
leather bra spanking a nude President Clinton who was sprawled across her lap
and smiling.
See what I mean about Republicans and fun?
The term "straw poll" comes from British jurist John Selden (1584-1654), who
wrote, "Take a straw and throw it up into the Air -- you may see by that which
way the Wind is."
But at Ames, there is no doubt which way the wind is. The wind is blowing into
the pockets of the Iowa Republican Party.
"We made about a million bucks last time," Ray Hoffman, the chairman of the
Iowa Republican Party, told me Monday.
Aside from making money for the party, Ames does have one other major role: It
is the Angel of Death.
Before the straw poll in 1999, Pat Buchanan said, "The Grim Reaper is going to
be waiting outside the field house in Ames, Iowa. I think it's going to kill off
several people."
It did. Including Pat Buchanan, who came in fourth and left the Republican Party.
The candidates who don't really get it think Ames is about speeches. The lowertier candidates -- the Republican Seven Dwarfs -- imagine they will go to Ames,
make a terrific speech, win over the crowd, finish well and get media attention
and campaign contributions.
To which the top-tier candidates say: Tee-hee.
And that is because the speeches at Ames are meaningless. Want proof?
At Ames, the voting begins hours before the candidates begin speaking.
Voting will begin at 10 a.m. this year, and the speeches will not start until 2 p.m.
Speeches? We don't need no stinkin' speeches. This is Ames!
I have been to every Ames straw poll since the second one in 1987. Back then,
the event was called the "Presidential Cavalcade of Stars." Jack Kemp tossed
little rubber footballs from the stage, and Pat Robertson supporters wore
revolving lights on their heads.
At the last straw poll in 1999, about 45,000 tickets were sold, but only about
26,000 people voted.
What happened to the 19,000 people who didn't vote? It is possible they
wandered away and were converted into ethanol, but it is also possible they
never showed up.
While it is relatively easy for a campaign to buy a bunch of tickets at $35 apiece,
it is far more difficult to get people to board a bus, ride to Ames and then stand in
line to vote. Ames does not test the popularity of the candidate or his ideas as
much as it tests the organizational ability of the campaign.
Because everything about the 2008 presidential election seems bigger and more
hyped this year, Ames has never gotten this much media attention. NBC's First
Read is even providing a daily countdown: 80 days to Ames, as of Tuesday.
Ames truly is do or die. Don't do well and your money and support can dry up.
And after this year's straw poll, the Seven Dwarfs could quickly be reduced to the
Three Stooges.
"I have a feeling we will lose a few candidates after Ames," Ray Hoffman told me.
We can only hope.