Des Moines Register
03-24-07
Vilsack likely to endorse Clinton
Candidate's aides say 'major announcement' will be Monday
By TONY LEYS
REGISTER STAFF WRITER
Former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack is expected to endorse the presidential candidacy
of U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, a source close to the situation confirmed Friday.
Neither camp would speak for the record, but Clinton's aides said a "major
announcement" would be made in Des Moines on Monday morning.
Vilsack folded his campaign for the Democratic nomination last month, saying he
could not raise enough money to compete with better-financed candidates. At the
time, he indicated he would wait a while before deciding whether to make an
endorsement.
Iowa State University political science professor Steffen Schmidt predicted
the endorsement would give a limited lift to Clinton. Vilsack is respected by Iowa
Democrats, the professor said, and by vouching for Clinton, the governor might
convince voters that she's worth a serious look.
But, Schmidt said, "endorsements don't usually bring with them a chunk of
voters. We're not in Chicago," where voters tend to follow a well-organized
political machine.
Schmidt said Vilsack might be angling to be chosen as Clinton's running mate or
as a Cabinet member if she wins the presidency. The professor likened the
endorsement game to investing. If you want to land a big return, you invest early,
he said.
Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, poohpoohed Friday's news. "Endorsements are usually worth the vote of the endorser
- and about half the time, his spouse," he said.
Sabato said he particularly doubted endorsements mean much in Iowa, where
voters have a reputation for independent thinking. "They don't need Tom Vilsack
to tell them about Hillary Clinton or any other candidate. They'll make up their
own minds."
But Sabato agreed with Schmidt that an endorsement now, when the race is
tight, is worth more than an endorsement made after a clear leader is
established. "The candidates remember the people who endorsed them early,"
he said. On the other hand, he said, Vilsack could be taking a risk by backing
Clinton before it's clear she'll win. If one of the other Democrats beats Clinton
and becomes president, Vilsack could lose his chance at a position in the new
administration, Sabato said.
Gordon Fischer, former state chairman of the Democratic Party and a Vilsack
supporter, said he couldn't confirm that the endorsement was pending. But he
said he expected the former governor to endorse a candidate at some point, and
he said the choice would have value. "I think it would be a big boost," he said.
Fischer has not chosen a new candidate since Vilsack dropped out. He said
there's no guarantee that the former governor's endorsement would deliver a
huge number of votes. "That remains to be seen," he said.
Former Secretary of State Elaine Baxter, a Burlington Democrat who supported
Vilsack's presidential candidacy, said he knows how to reach Iowa voters. "I
would expect him to go out and be a formidable campaigner for whichever
candidate he chooses," she said.
Baxter, who has not committed to a new candidate, said she doesn't remember
an endorsement making a crucial difference in a race. The closest she could
think of was the endorsement of John Kerry by Vilsack's wife, Christie, which
came shortly before the Massachusetts senator scored a come-from-behind
victory in the 2004 caucuses.
During the current campaign, Tom Vilsack reportedly was courted by other
Democratic candidates, including Clinton's main rivals, Sen. Barack Obama and
former Sen. John Edwards.
In an interview Friday with the Associated Press, Obama praised Vilsack but said
he doubted endorsements would matter much. He said he was not surprised to
hear reports that Vilsack was tilting toward Clinton. "The Clintons have been on
the national scene for a real long time," he said. "I think the surprise would be if
they didn't garner a lot of endorsements from well-established political figures."
Edwards' campaign declined to comment on the news.
Reporter Tony Leys can be reached at (515) 284-8449 or tleys@dmreg.com