The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
03-23-07
Edwards' decision confounds experts: Move to continue campaign could be seen
as either bold or cold but would increase his health care expertise.
BYLINE: SCOTT SHEPARD; Cox Washington Bureau
Washington --- While John Edwards said Thursday his campaign "goes on
strongly," the unusual nature of the situation confronting the former senator from
North Carolina confounded political experts trying to assess what impact it would
have on his attempt to win the party's nomination next year.
"It's sad and tragic and very unusual," said Steffen Schmidt, a political
scientist at Iowa State University who doubles as "Dr. Politics" on a popular
call-in radio program in Ames, Iowa.
"Some people are saying it is kind of a cold move, kind of out of character for a
man so family-oriented. Others are saying it's a very bold move, one that shows
a lot of courage. I suppose it could go either way."
But Diane Bystrom, the author of 11 books on politics, including "Gender
and Elections," said Elizabeth Edwards' illness could result in key constituency
groups in the Democratic Party "being drawn to and identifying with" the Edwards
campaign, at the expense of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.
Bystrom's research has detected a pattern of male politicians using breast cancer
as political shorthand for appealing to female voters, especially if their opponent
is a woman. "And here, you've got a man running against a very formidable
woman," she said.
"If there is any upside out of a serious illness, it is that Edwards will have unique
credibility to discuss health care in America," said Darrell West, a political
science professor at Brown University and developer of the Web site
InsidePolitics.org.
But Debbie Walsh, the director of the Center for American Politics and Women,
said there is no way to accurately predict how any constituency is going to react
politically to the recurrence of Elizabeth Edwards' cancer.
"It probably makes them, as a couple, seem more real, because they are
experiencing what so many other Americans have experienced," she said. "But
she was already so real to voters."
And popular, according to Frank Luntz, the noted Republican pollster who
already has done extensive political research on the 2008 presidential campaign.
"Elizabeth Edwards is probably the most popular political spouse in Iowa," he
said.