Truth about Trade and Technology, IA
03-27-07
The future is not now for biomass ethanol industry
by: Bill Hord
Lincoln - The logistics of collecting and storing a million tons of corn stubble each
year for an ethanol refinery are mind-numbing.
It would take 67,000 semitrailer loads to haul the baled stubble out of the field.
That's 187 truckloads a day, or one every eight minutes. To complicate matters,
the need for trucks, machinery and manpower would come during harvest,
already the busiest time of the year on the farm.
And that's where a massive federal initiative into cellulosic ethanol may find its
biggest bottleneck - on the farm.
"Naturally, the farmer says, 'Wait a minute. I've got enough stuff in my field,'" said
Lex Thompson, president of the Imperial, Neb., Young Farmers and Ranchers
Association.
The question is whether farmers will harvest and sell the nongrain plant material,
known as cellulose or biomass, to make the federal government's plan for
renewable fuels work.
The U.S. Department of Energy wants to replace 30 percent of the nation's
petroleum needs with ethanol by 2030. That goal would require some 40 billion to
45 billion gallons a year from biomass ethanol, a technology not yet in
commercial production.
"If we can get the farming community's support," said Andy Aden, senior
researcher at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colo., "then
all the pieces are falling into place and some real progress can be made."
But farmer buy-in remains to be seen, said Imperial farmer Rod Johnson.
"Our main concern is $4-per-bushel corn (worth $750 to $800 an acre)," Johnson
said. "Thirty dollars an acre for biomass is a minor concern for our operation."
The Energy Department wants researchers to develop a harvest and storage
process that would provide material to a refinery for $35 a ton, a level that
probably would make ethanol production profitable.
Opinions differ, however, on whether that is achievable. Some in the industry
believe the cost to ethanol plants would be closer to $60.
Iowa State University researchers agree that the technology is not yet
developed that will allow farmers to profit from harvesting some of their stubble
for ethanol production.
ISU researcher Stuart Birrell and others have been experimenting with
techniques that would allow farmers to reap and bale corn stubble
simultaneously while harvesting corn.
That could lower costs significantly, Birrell said. "Every time you put another
machine in the field, your costs really start going up."
Even with a one-pass system, Birrell said, the cost of harvesting would be
greater than the $35 sought by the Energy Department. And there are other
drawbacks. One-pass harvest experiments have slowed combines to about 60
percent of normal harvest speed, too slow to suit farmers, Birrell said.
"Our target is 80 percent of harvest speed," Birrell said. "We feel farmers would
live with that."
Researchers are also studying how much of the corn plant can be removed
without causing soil erosion and loss of soil nutrients.
There are advantages to leaving stubble in the field, Birrell said. "The bottom part
is fairly high in nutrients."
Many of the questions surrounding cellulosic ethanol could be answered in the
next 10 years as six pilot plants are built with the help of $385 million in grants
from the Energy Department.
Some of those refineries will experiment with corn stover and other crop
residues. Others will experiment with woody materials, others with switchgrass
and others with municipal waste.
Right now, the cost of producing ethanol from corn stover is about twice the cost
of producing ethanol from corn kernels.
"It cannot compete without subsidies," said Sam Tagore, a Department of Energy
feedstocks specialist in Washington, D.C.
Not the least of the concerns with corn stover is the problem of storage, Tagore
said. The harvest of corn stover would occur during a six-week harvest window in
the fall, but the ethanol plant would require regular deliveries throughout the year.
Even a small ethanol plant using 2,000 tons of stover a day would require 100
acres stacked 25 feet high with stover to run a refinery for a year.
A three-year study in Chase County indicates that an 80-million-gallon ethanol
plant would require corn stover from 500,000 acres of corn within a 50-mile
radius of the plant and 500 acres to store it after harvest.
"That will give you an idea of the logistical nightmare this thing is," said Lex
Thompson, one of the Chase County coordinators.
On the other hand, an additional $30 profit per acre would put $15 million into the
pockets of farmers operating near the refinery.
The question, Thompson said, is whether such a scenario is feasible.
"We're at the stage now where we are going to know the answer in a few years,"
he said.
Imperial farmer Johnson, although still not sure what the future will hold, said
there is potential for success.
"We believe there will need to be a return (profit) of $30 an acre for a farmer to
want to participate," Johnson said.
That is the key, said Hettenhaus, the biomass consultant. "I compare farmers to
the OPEC guys. They control the feedstocks. Unless it is a benefit to the farmer,
forget it."
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