Des Moines Register
09-17-06
Culver, Nussle run neck and neck
Iowa Poll: A Register exclusive since 1943
By JONATHAN ROOS
REGISTER STAFF WRITER
Iowa's race for governor can't get any tighter.
A new Des Moines Register poll shows Democrat Chet Culver and Republican
Jim Nussle are tied, 44 percent to 44 percent, among likely voters at this stage of
the statewide contest.
Ready to break the unusual tie are the 10 percent of Iowans who say they
definitely will vote in the Nov. 7 election but are undecided on a candidate at this
point.
Another 2 percent of those polled say they that prefer someone else to become
Iowa's chief executive, or that they're not going to cast a ballot on this race.
The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The battle between Nussle, an eight-term congressman from northeast Iowa, and
Culver, Iowa's secretary of state since 1999, has heated up over issues such as
abortion and pension fund investments since the two were nominated by their
respective parties in June. But neither candidate has been able to build a lead,
according to the poll, taken over four days last week.
It was a much different story at this stage of the wide-open governor's race of
1998. Democrat Tom Vilsack trailed Republican Jim Ross Lightfoot by 20 points
in a mid-September Iowa Poll. Vilsack came on strong at the end of the
campaign and pulled out the victory.
Now, Nussle and Culver are in a very tight race to succeed Vilsack, who is
leaving office after two terms and is exploring a possible run for the White House
in 2008.
"I think it foreshadows the divisions in the state between two candidates who are
philosophically different on a number of key issues, so I think it's going to be a
tight race," said Dianne Bystrom, director of the Carrie Chapman Catt Center
for Women and Politics at Iowa State University.
The new poll shows Nussle trailing Culver in eastern Iowa, including the 1st
Congressional District that he has represented. Nussle is comfortably ahead in
western Iowa, which is generally vote-rich territory for Republicans. Likely voters
in the middle of the state are nearly split down the middle between the two
candidates.
Few to vote outside party
Members of their respective parties are staying loyal. Just 3 percent of
Democrats and 5 percent of Republicans among likely voters say they're going to
cross party lines in the governor's race.
The swing group of independents is split among the 42 percent favoring Nussle,
the 40 percent supporting Culver, and the 18 percent who are undecided or
would vote for someone else.
Both candidates receive similar popularity ratings in the poll. Just 10 percent of
likely voters say their feelings toward Culver are very unfavorable, and only 16
percent feel that negatively about Nussle.
At the other end of the popularity scale, 16 percent of likely voters regard Nussle
very favorably, and 13 percent feel that warmly toward Culver.
Voters' views
Poll participant David Strickland, a Democrat from Anita in southwest Iowa, said
his support for Culver can be traced back to Culver's father, John, a U.S. senator
between 1975 and 1981.
Chet Culver "has the family name, and I've kind of watched him a while," said
Strickland, 65, who is preparing to enter the ministry as a teacher.
Strickland found Nussle's record as a congressman too conservative for his
tastes.
"He has a nice personality but he's quite conservative," Strickland said. "Culver is
more of a moderate."
Poll participant Daryl Cleveland, a political independent from Odebolt in western
Iowa, said, "I really haven't had a chance to look into it."
"I research it before I vote," said Cleveland, a retired postmaster. He said he has
heard a lot about Nebraska election contests but little about the Iowa race for
governor.
Poll respondent Becky Huang, a 37-year-old homemaker from Mason City who
educates her six children at home, supports Nussle because his political
philosophy and religious beliefs are in sync with her own views.
"I feel he is the one most against abortion and he is pro-home schooling. And
basically he is down our alley with what he wants to do with taxes. He's
protecting us that are in the middle class, not taking our paycheck away from us,"
said Huang, a Republican.
Culver, she said, is too liberal. "We have not appreciated his stands on abortion
and education and homosexuality."