Iowa Farmer Today
09-09-06
Bean yield up, corn yield down
By Tim Hoskins, Iowa Farmer Today
What a difference a month can make in crop supply numbers.
After looking at reports from Allendale and F.C. Stone about upcoming crop yields, Bob Wisner, Iowa State University ag economist , says both firms see a modest decline in corn and increases in total soybean production.
The private reports are between the USDA’s August and September Crop
Production Reports. The next USDA Crop Production report will be Sept. 12.
The downward trend in corn production could be reported by the USDA in its report.
Wisner says the private numbers reflect a lower yield than the USDA predicted in its August Crop Report and is reflective of drought problems in the Dakotas, dryland areas of Kansas and Nebraska, and western parts of Iowa.
“They show a substantial amount of corn being chopped for silage,” he says of the reports.
However, how many corn acres have been harvested will likely not show up in
USDA numbers until its Oct. 12 Crop Report.
Wisner says good yields in the Eastern Cornbelt are partially offsetting the losses in the Western Cornbelt.
The overall effect on the corn market may have established a low in the market.
However, he warns concerns about storage and transportation could put a lid on any potential rally.
The private reports have a U.S. soybean crop above 3 billion bushels, higher than USDA numbers in its August Crop Report.
That is a reflection of the wide spread rains most of the Cornbelt received in
August, especially in the Western Cornbelt.
In the USDA numbers, yields in the Western Cornbelt were down 5 to 7 bu./acre compared with 2005. But, the rains are likely to close that gap. That translates into November futures likely to trade $5.25 to $5.35/bu.

“That would take farm price levels below the loan rate,” he says.
However, Wisner expects any LDP to decrease past harvest. There might be a
LDP on corn. Wisner says it won’t be the size of the LDP that was paid in 2005.
After harvest, he says traders will start to buy corn acres for 2007. Currently, they need to purchase 31⁄2 million to 4 million acres from this year to next year.
He says current carryout projections have the United States having a four-week supply of corn on Aug. 31, 2007. The market needs a four-week supply just to make it to the harvest of the 2007 corn crop.
As harvest nears, exports will become a market factor. Wisner says new crop export sales for corn and soybeans are off to a good start. He cites less competition from the former Soviet Union and South America for corn sales and less concern about bird flu.